REPEAT

CALEB WILLIAMS WORTHY

OF HEISMAN TROPHY WAGER

SEASON WIN TOTALS

SELECTIONS FOR EVERY TEAM

BEST BETS
CONFERENCE AND
TITLE GAME PICKS
FROM VSIN EXPERTS

TEAM PREVIEWS
BREAKDOWNS, TRENDS
AND LINE ESTIMATES
FOR EVERY GAME

2023 cfb
betting guide
CONTENTS
CONFERENCE AND TEAM INDEX
AAC Betting Preview................... 40
Charlotte 49ers............................... 41
East Carolina Pirates........................ 42
Florida Atlantic Owls....................... 43
Memphis Tigers............................... 44
Navy Midshipmen........................... 45
North Texas Eagles.......................... 46
Rice Owls........................................ 47
SMU Mustangs................................ 48
South Florida Bulls........................... 49
Temple Owls................................... 50
Tulane Green Wave......................... 51
Tulsa Golden Hurricane................... 52
UTSA Roadrunners.......................... 53
UAB Blazers.................................... 54
ACC Betting Preview................... 55
Boston College Eagles..................... 56
Clemson Tigers................................ 57
Duke Blue Devils.............................. 58
Florida State Seminoles.................... 59
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets............ 60
Louisville Cardinals.......................... 61
Miami Hurricanes............................ 62
North Carolina Tar Heels................. 63
NC State Wolfpack.......................... 64
Pittsburgh Panthers........................... 65
Syracuse Orange............................. 66
Virginia Cavaliers............................ 67
Virginia Tech Hokies........................ 68
Wake Forest Demon Deacons........... 69
Big Ten Betting Preview.............. 70
Illinois Fighting Illini......................... 71
Indiana Hoosiers............................. 72
Iowa Hawkeyes............................... 73
Maryland Terrapins..........................74
Michigan Wolverines....................... 75
Michigan State Spartans.................. 76
Minnesota Golden Gophers............. 77
Nebraska Cornhuskers..................... 78
Northwestern Wildcats.................... 79
Ohio State Buckeyes........................ 80
Penn State Nittany Lions................... 81
Purdue Boilermakers........................ 82
Rutgers Scarlet Knights..................... 83
Wisconsin Badgers.......................... 84
Big 12 Betting Preview................ 85
Baylor Bears................................... 86
BYU Cougars................................... 87
Cincinnati Bearcats.......................... 88
Houston Cougars............................. 89
Iowa State Cyclones........................ 90
Kansas Jayhawks............................. 91
Kansas State Wildcats...................... 92
Oklahoma Sooners.......................... 93
Oklahoma State Cowboys................ 94
TCU Horned Frogs........................... 95
Texas Longhorns.............................. 96
Texas Tech Red Raiders.................... 97
UCF Golden Knights........................ 98
West Virginia Mountaineers............. 99
VSIN STAFF/CONTRIBUTORS
MANAGING EDITOR: Adam Burke
DATABASE MANAGER: Jason Latus
LAYOUT AND DESIGN: Matt Devine
ODDS WITHIN GUIDE
ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Conference USA Betting Preview...100
Florida International Golden Panthers....101
Jacksonville State Gamecocks........ 102
Liberty Flames............................... 103
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs................. 104
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders... 105
New Mexico State Aggies.............. 106
Sam Houston State Bearkats........... 107
UTEP Miners.................................. 108
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers......... 109
Independents Betting Preview... 110
Army Black Knights......................... 111
Connecticut Huskies........................112
Massachusetts Minutemen...............113
Notre Dame Fighting Irish...............114
MAC Betting Preview................. 115
Akron Zips.....................................116
Ball State Cardinals........................117
Bowling Green Falcons...................118
Buffalo Bulls...................................119
Central Michigan Chippewas.......... 120
Eastern Michigan Eagles.................121
Kent State Golden Flashes.............. 122
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks................ 123
Northern Illinois Huskies................ 124
Ohio U Bobcats............................. 125
Toledo Rockets.............................. 126
Western Michigan Broncos............. 127
Mountain West Betting Preview...128
Air Force Falcons........................... 129
Boise State Broncos....................... 130
Colorado State Rams......................131
Fresno State Bulldogs..................... 132
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.............. 133
Nevada Wolf Pack......................... 134
New Mexico Lobos........................ 135
San Diego State Aztecs.................. 136
San Jose State Spartans................. 137
UNLV Rebels................................. 138
Utah State Aggies.......................... 139
Wyoming Cowboys........................ 140
Pac-12 Betting Preview..............141
Arizona Wildcats........................... 142
Arizona State Sun Devils................ 143
California Golden Bears................. 144
Colorado Buffaloes........................ 145
Oregon Ducks............................... 146
Oregon State Beavers.................... 147
Stanford Cardinal.......................... 148
UCLA Bruins.................................. 149
USC Trojans.................................. 150
Utah Utes.......................................151
Washington Huskies....................... 152
Washington State Cougars............. 153
WRITERS and EDITORS:
Zachary Cohen, Michael Dolan,
Steve Makinen, Tim Murray, Dave Tuley,
Wes Reynolds and Matt Youmans
photos by USA Today Sports Images
2
FEATURES
SEC Betting Preview...................154 3
Alabama Crimson Tide................... 155
Welcome to the 2023 VSiN
Arkansas Razorbacks..................... 156
Auburn Tigers................................ 157 College Football Betting Guide
Florida Gators............................... 158
Georgia Bulldogs.......................... 159 4
Kentucky Wildcats......................... 160 VSiN Expert Season Win Total Best Bets
LSU Tigers......................................161
Mississippi State Bulldogs............... 162
Missouri Tigers.............................. 163 10
Ole Miss Rebels............................. 164 VSiN Expert Futures and Props Best Bets
South Carolina Gamecocks............ 165
Tennessee Volunteers..................... 166 13
Texas A&M Aggies.........................167 College Football Preseason Top 25
Vanderbilt Commodores................. 168
Sun Belt Betting Preview............169 17
Appalachian State Mountaineers.... 170 Top 50 College Football Trends
Arkansas State Red Wolves.............171 for Your 2023 Calendar
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers......... 172
Georgia Southern Eagles............... 173
Georgia State Panthers...................174
22
James Madison Dukes.................... 175 Building a Power Rating Model
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns..................176
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks......... 177 24
Marshall Thundering Herd.............. 178 Handicapping the Heisman
Old Dominion Monarchs................ 179
South Alabama Jaguars................. 180
Southern Miss Golden Eagles..........181 28
Texas State Bobcats....................... 182 Strategies for Using the DraftKings
Troy Trojans................................... 183 Betting Splits on VSiN.com
30
Defining College Football
Home-Field Advantage
32
College Football Stability Scores for 2023
38
Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings
39
College Football Returning Starters
184
College Football Recruiting Rankings
Help Predict Success
191
Analyzing College Football Coaching
Changes for 2023
197
Steve Makinen’s 4-Year Effective Stats
COMMON ABBREVIATIONS USED THROUGHOUT THIS GUIDE
ATS – Against the Spread • Avg - Average • CL – Closing Line
DC - Defensive Coordinator • Def - Defense • Dog - Underdog
Eff Strg - Steve Makinen Effective Strength Rating • Fav - Favorite
FT – Final Total • HC - Head Coach • H2h – Head-to-Head • L - Losses
L# - Last number of games • LY – Last Year • MOV – Margin of Victory
O - Over • OC - Offensive Coordinator • Off - Offense • OL – Opening Line
OT – Opening Total • Opp – Opponent • O/U – Over/Under
PA - Points Against • Pct - Percentage • PF - Points For • PPG - Points Per Game
PYPG – Passing Yards per Page • RS - Returning Starters
RYPG – Rushing Yards per Game • SM BR - Steve Makinen Bettors’ Rating
SM PR - Steve Makinen Power Rating • SU - Straight Up • TO - Turnovers
TYPG – Total Yards per Game • U - Under • W - Wins • YPP – Yards per Play
YPPT – Yards per Point • YPR – Yards per Rush
Friends new and old,

Soon you will be looking live at the college football season and we hope to make it a more
profitable one for you with the 2023 College Football Betting Guide and all of our upcoming
in-season content. A strong cast of contributors worked tirelessly on the writing, editing, and
design of this year’s version and we are pleased to bring it to you.

Many of you may have signed up when we released our 2023 NFL Betting Guide earlier
than ever before. Many of you have been around for a long time. And many others are just
now joining us for the first time as we gear up for another season on the gridiron. Whether
you just recently found VSiN, decided to make the leap to being a subscriber, or have been
here since the jump, we are honored and privileged to have you with us.

In this year’s Guide, you will read:

• Stats, trends, betting systems, all the new head coaches, and the always-popular “Stability
Scores” from Steve Makinen
• Matt Youmans’ Preseason Top 25 and his previews of the Big 12 and Pac-12
• Zach Cohen’s takes on the Heisman Trophy and his previews of the ACC and SEC
• Dave Tuley on the MAC
• Tim Murray on the Mountain West
• Wes Reynolds on the Big Ten
• A How-To Guide on creating your own Power Ratings Model and a home-field advantage
system from Adam Burke, along with his previews of the AAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt
• Staff best bets on season win totals, futures, and props
• Division, conference, and College Football Playoff predictions from VSiN writers, hosts,
and DraftKings Network personalities

With team previews and season win total picks for ALL 133 FBS teams, this is as
comprehensive as it gets for a College Football Guide and you’ll find plenty of additional
notes and nuggets along the way.

This is just the beginning for us with our college football coverage, as weekly best bets,
betting tips, and system plays will come your way throughout the season.

Just like I said in the NFL Guide Welcome Letter, cashin’ tickets is what it’s all about and
that’s what we plan to do this season. Thank you for coming along for the ride and for your
continued support of VSiN.

Adam Burke @SkatingTripods

Editor, VSiN NFL Betting Guide
aburke@vsin.com

3
 2023 CFB SEASON PREDICTIONS

POWER RATINGS
STEVE MAKINEN

MUSBURGER

ALEXANDER

VON TOBEL
JONATHAN
REYNOLDS
YOUMANS

MAKINEN
SMETANA

HOWARD
MURRAY

TUCKER
JESSICA

PARLES
SHAUN
BURKE
COHEN

MITCH
BRENT

PAULY

SMITH
JARED
ADAM
TULEY

MOSS
STEVE
MATT

ZACH
DAVE

KING
ROSS

GILL
WES

JEFF
TIM
ACC

ACC #1 CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON LOUISVILLE CLEMSON CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON

ACC #2 FLORIDA STATE LOUISVILLE FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE NORTH CAROLINA FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE

ACC CHAMPION CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON

AMERICAN

AAC #1 SMU UTSA TULANE UTSA TULANE UTSA TULANE UTSA TULANE TULANE TULANE MEMPHIS UTSA SMU TULANE TULANE UTSA UTSA

AAC #2 TULANE SMU UTSA SMU UTSA TULANE SMU SMU UTSA SMU UTSA TULANE TULANE UTSA SMU UTSA TULANE SMU

AAC CHAMPION TULANE UTSA TULANE UTSA TULANE UTSA TULANE UTSA TULANE TULANE UTSA TULANE UTSA UTSA TULANE TULANE UTSA UTSA

BIG TEN MI

EAST #1 OHIO STATE MICHIGAN OHIO STATE PENN STATE MICHIGAN OHIO STATE OHIO STATE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN OHIO STATE MICHIGAN PENN STATE OHIO STATE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN PENN STATE OHIO STATE MICHIGAN

WEST #1 WISCONSIN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN IOWA WISCONSIN IOWA WISCONSIN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN IOWA

BIG TEN CHAMPION OHIO STATE WISCONSIN OHIO STATE PENN STATE MICHIGAN OHIO STATE OHIO STATE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN OHIO STATE MICHIGAN PENN STATE OHIO STATE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN PENN STATE OHIO STATE MICHIGAN

BIG 12

B12 #1 TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS KANSAS STATE TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS KANSAS STATE OKLAHOMA TEXAS KANSAS STATE TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS

B12 #2 TEXAS TECH KANSAS STATE KANSAS STATE OKLAHOMA TEXAS OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS KANSAS STATE TEXAS KANSAS STATE KANSAS STATE KANSAS STATE OKLAHOMA KANSAS TEXAS TECH

BIG 12 CHAMPION TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS KANSAS STATE TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS KANSAS STATE OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS KANSAS STATE KANSAS STATE TEXAS TEXAS KANSAS TEXAS

CONFERENCE USA

CUSA #1 WKU WKU WKU UTEP UTEP WKU WKU WKU WKU WKU WKU MTSU WKU WKU LIBERTY WKU WKU WKU

CUSA #2 UTEP UTEP LIBERTY WKU WKU LIBERTY LINERTY MTSU MTSU LIBERTY LIBERTY NEW MEXICO ST MTSU MTSU WKU LIBERTY MTSU UTEP

CUSA CHAMPION WKU WKU WKU UTEP WKU WKU WKU WKU WKU WKU LIBERTY MTSU WKU WKU LIBERTY WKU WKU WKU

MAC

EAST #1 OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO MIAMI OH OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO MIAMI OH OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO

WEST #1 TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO UNI TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO

MAC CHAMPION TOLEDO OHIO TOLEDO OHIO TOLEDO OHIO TOLEDO MIAMI OH TOLEDO OHIO TOLEDO OHIO OHIO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO TOLEDO OHIO

MOUNTAIN WEST

MWC #1 BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE AIR FORCE BOISE STATE AIR FORCE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE

MWC #2 COLORADO ST AIR FORCE AIR FORCE AIR FORCE AIR FORCE AIR FORCE FRESNO STATE SDSU AIR FORCE AIR FORCE FRESNO STATE FRESNO STATE BOISE STATE SDSU BOISE STATE FRESNO STATE SDSU FRESNO STATE

MWC CHAMPION BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE SDSU BOISE STATE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE FRESNO STATE

PAC-12

P12 #1 USC USC UTAH USC USC USC USC USC UTAH USC USC WASHINGTON USC USC USC USC USC WASHINGTON

P12 #2 WASHINGTON WASHINGTON USC WASHINGTON UTAH WASHINGTON OREGON WASHINGTON USC OREGON OREGON USC UTAH WASHINGTON OREGON OREGON WASHINGTON USC

P12 CHAMPION WASHINGTON USC UTAH WASHINGTON UTAH WASHINGTON USC USC UTAH USC USC WASHINGTON USC WASHINGTON USC USC USC WASHINGTON

SEC

EAST #1 GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA

WEST #1 ALABAMA LSU ALABAMA LSU ALABAMA LSU ALABAMA LSU ALABAMA LSU ALABAMA LSU LSU ALABAMA ALABAMA LSU ALABAMA LSU

SEC CHAMPION GEORGIA LSU ALABAMA LSU GEORGIA LSU GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA LSU GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA LSU GEORGIA GEORGIA

SUN BELT

EAST #1 APP STATE C CAROLINA APP STATE C CAROLINA C CAROLINA GA SOUTHERN MARSHALL JAMES MADISON C CAROLINA C CAROLINA C CAROLINA JAMES MADISON APP STATE JAMES MADISON JAMES MADISON APP STATE C CAROLINA MARSHALL

WEST #1 S ALABAMA S ALABAMA TROY S ALABAMA S ALABAMA S ALABAMA TROY LOUISIANA TROY TROY S ALABAMA S ALABAMA TROY S ALABAMA TROY TROY S ALABAMA S ALABAMA

SBC CHAMPION S ALABAMA S ALABAMA TROY S ALABAMA S ALABAMA S ALABAMA TROY JAMES MADISON C CAROLINA TROY C CAROLINA S ALABAMA APP STATE S ALABAMA JAMES MADISON APP STATE S ALABAMA S ALABAMA

CFP FINAL FOUR

TEAM SEEDED #1 GEORGIA LSU ALABAMA LSU GEORGIA LSU GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA LSU GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA LSU GEORGIA GEORGIA

TEAM SEEDED #2 OHIO STATE CLEMSON OHIO STATE PENN STATE MICHIGAN OHIO STATE OHIO STATE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN OHIO STATE MICHIGAN WASHINGTON OHIO STATE MICHIGAN FLORIDA STATE PENN STATE OHIO STATE MICHIGAN

TEAM SEEDED #3 CLEMSON GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA FLORIDA STATE GEORGIA MICHIGAN USC ALABAMA LSU USC PENN STATE USC CLEMSON MICHIGAN USC ALABAMA CLEMSON

TEAM SEEDED #4 WASHINGTON USC UTAH CLEMSON UTAH MICHIGAN ALABAMA OHIO STATE OHIO STATE USC OHIO STATE GEORGIA TEXAS OHIO ST USC TEXAS USC LSU

CFP FINAL TWO

TEAM #1 GEORGIA USC GEORGIA LSU GEORGIA LSU GEORGIA MICHIGAN GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA LSU GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA LSU GEORGIA GEORGIA

TEAM #2 OHIO STATE CLEMSON UTAH GEORGIA MICHIGAN GEORGIA OHIO STATE OHIO STATE MICHIGAN OHIO STATE MICHIGAN PENN STATE OHIO STATE MICHIGAN FLORIDA STATE PENN STATE OHIO STATE CLEMSON

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPION O CL

CHAMPION OHIO STATE USC UTAH LSU MICHIGAN LSU GEORGIA OHIO STATE GEORGIA GEORGIA MICHIGAN PENN STATE OHIO STATE MICHIGAN GEORGIA LSU GEORGIA CLEMSON
VSIN
MATT YOUMANS
LOUISVILLE OVER 8 WINS
The wait for Jeff Brohm to return home as coach will be worth

EXPERT
it. The former Louisville quarterback is an aggressive program
builder and offensive innovator. Brohm took over a pathetic
Purdue team in 2017 and went 7-6 with a bowl win in his first
year. He’s inheriting a better Louisville team (8-5 last season)
and a hospitable schedule that excludes Clemson, Florida
State and North Carolina in the ACC. The Cardinals will be
favored to win their first four games (Georgia Tech, Murray
State, Indiana and Boston College) and should be halfway to
reaching this win total by the end of September. The schedule

SEASON
might end up being even easier than it appears on paper.
Brohm brought most of his key assistants from Purdue, and he
already has formed a solid quarterback depth chart led by
Jack Plummer, who played for the Boilermakers in Brohm’s
system before transferring to California and posting good
numbers in 12 starts in the Pac-12. The pieces are falling into
place for Brohm, who’s a bet-on coach.

WIN
OKLAHOMA STATE UNDER 6.5 WINS
It’s not easy to doubt Mike Gundy, who has coached his way
to 17 consecutive bowl games, but the old Cowboy was a big
loser in the transfer portal and might not have enough horses.
The departure of Spencer Sanders, the starting quarterback the
past two years who left for Mississippi, will prove costly. Even
with a relatively soft schedule, Gundy is unlikely to guide a
team with a diminished talent level to 7-5, and 6-6 is probably

TOTAL
the ceiling for the Cowboys.

WISCONSIN OVER 8.5 WINS

Expectations often get too high for new coaches, but Luke
Fickell has everything needed to win big in his debut with the
Badgers. The offense essentially returns 11 starters, although
quarterback Tanner Mordecai is a transfer from SMU and
center Jake Renfro was a two-year starter for Fickell at
Cincinnati. Mordecai passed for 33 touchdowns last season
for the Mustangs and will be a major upgrade for a stagnant
passing offense. Running backs Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi
rank among the conference’s elite. The defense, which returns

BEST
eight starters, will be among the Big Ten’s best. Wisconsin
will be favored in six of seven home games (excluding Ohio
State) and probably will be favored in at least four of five road
games. Fickell catches a break because Michigan and Penn
State are not on the schedule. I project the Badgers to go 10-2
in the regular season, and 9-3 would be slightly disappointing
yet still enough to top a win total that is a tick too low.

DAVE TULEY
UTAH OVER 8.5 WINS

BETS
I’m betting Utah to win the Pac-12 and taking a flier to win the
national title, so obviously we have to like the Utes to exceed
their Over/Under season win total, which seems low (and at
a plus-price, thank you very much). Utah returns 13 starters,
including starting QB Cameron Rising (assuming the reports are
accurate that the rehab on his torn ACL is ahead of schedule).
Last year, Utah won nine regular-season games despite
dropping its opener, 29-26, vs. Florida in The Swamp. This
year, they face the Gators again but get them at home and
are 8-point favorites. Utah does have to travel to Baylor and
the Pac-12 schedule might be tougher, but the Utes went 7-2 in
the Pac-12 last season, including a win vs. USC, with the only
losses at UCLA and Oregon. They get both of those teams at
home this year. And, even though postseason games don’t
count in Over/Under season win bets, don’t forget that Utah
ran all over Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and much-
ballyhooed USC, 47-24, in the Pac-12 Championship Game
and this team looks like it’s going to be better.

5
TIM MURRAY
OREGON STATE OVER 8 WINS
Jonathan Smith has done a remarkable job at his alma mater. Smith
inherited a 1-11 program in 2018 and the Beavers won 10 games
for the third time in school history last year. Oregon State added
Clemson transfer QB DJ Uiagalelei in the transfer portal. The former
five-star recruit should be an improvement at the quarterback position
and I expect Smith to get the best out of him. The Beavers also
return their top three running backs including freshman All American
Damien Martinez. The Oregon State offensive line is stacked with
109 career starts. Expect the Beavers to be one of the most physical
offenses in the country. The defense is a bit worrisome. Oregon State
has to replace six starters including leading tackler Omar Speights
who transferred to LSU. In the secondary, the Beavers lost Jaydon
Grant and Rejzohn Wright. Grant and Wright combined for 15 PBU
and five interceptions. Despite the questions on defense, the schedule
for Oregon State is quite favorable. The Beavers avoid USC and
play Utah, UCLA, and Washington all at home. Oregon State is
12-1 at home over the last two years even with renovations to its
stadium. With renovations completed, if Oregon State can win one of
those home games, the Beavers should have nine wins entering their
season finale at Oregon.
DUKE UNDER 6.5 WINS
Mike Elko did a fantastic job in his first season in Durham. The Blue
Devils had a preseason win total of 3, finished the regular season
8-4, and defeated UCF in the Military Bowl. It was Duke’s first nine-
win season since 2014. QB Riley Leonard enters the year one of the
top quarterbacks in the ACC. Leonard led ACC quarterbacks with
699 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns as well as throwing
for 2,967 yards and 20 touchdowns. Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s
NFL Draft analyst, ranked Leonard as the fourth-best quarterback
prospect entering the season. The Blue Devils brought back 10
starters on offense and also added Stanford T Jake Hornibrook
from portal. So, why play Under their win total? Duke finished
second in the country with a +16 turnover margin in 2022. That is
not sustainable. Additionally, Duke feasted on weak competition.
The Blue Devils went 7-1 last year against teams that did not reach
a bowl game and 1-3 versus teams that did reach a bowl. Duke
adds Clemson, Florida State, and Notre Dame to the schedule this
year, all of which are expected to be preseason Top 15 teams. Duke
avoids some of the weaker ACC teams including Georgia Tech,
Boston College, Virginia Tech, or Syracuse. Duke has a bunch of
toss-up games this year with NC State, Louisville, North Carolina,
and Pittsburgh. It is likely that Duke is a better team in 2023 but ends
up with a worse record than 2022.
COLORADO STATE OVER 4.5 WINS
Despite having the worst offensive line in the country (59 sacks
allowed), Jay Norvell’s squad managed three wins in his first year in
Fort Collins. Norvell revamped his offensive line via the portal and
returns QB Clay Millen and star WR Tory Horton. Horton is the most
talented wide receiver in the Mountain West. At Mountain West media
day, Norvell said that Horton was approached by multiple SEC teams
this offseason but opted to stay at Colorado State. The Rams added
to their depth offensively by bringing in SMU WR Dylan Goffney,
North Dakota State leading rusher Kobe Johnson, and BYU TE Dallin
Holker. Defensively, the Rams will be strong up front anchored by
DE Mohamed Kamara (8.5 sacks). S Jack Howell was First-Team All
Mountain West last season and the secondary improved by adding
Oregon State transfer Ron Hardge to play opposite returning CB
starter Chigozie Anusiem. Colorado State will be an underdog in
its first three games (Washington State, at Colorado, at Middle
Tennessee) but the Rams have the talent to pull an upset in one of
those games. In the Mountain West, Colorado State avoids Fresno
State and San Jose State but does not play the worst team in the
conference, New Mexico. Boise State, Air Force, and San Diego State
all come to Fort Collins. With Nevada and a road trip to Hawaii as
the final two games of the season, Colorado State should be playing
for bowl eligibility and therefore surpassing 4.5 wins.
6
UTAH STATE UNDER 5.5 WINS
Following a 6-6 season with four close victories (7 points or less) and
just nine returning starters, Utah State should be in for some regression
in 2023. The Aggies open the season at Iowa and are a 23-point
underdog. While Iowa is the lone P5 team on Utah State’s schedule,
the Aggies host James Madison on Sept. 23 and visit UConn on Sept.
30. James Madison was selected to finish first in the Sun Belt East.
UConn should be slightly improved from last year’s six-win team. The
Aggies are the only team in the Mountain West scheduled to play the
top five teams that were voted top five in the preseason poll (Boise
State, Air Force., Fresno State, San Diego State, San Jose State).
On personnel front, the Aggies bring back just nine starters as Utah
State was crushed due to graduation and in the portal. Leading
rusher, Calvin Tyler, and leading receiver, Brian Cobbs, are gone. The
offensive line lost four starters including First-Team All Mountain West
T Alfred Edwards. Defensively, leading tackler, LB AJ Vongphachanh,
transferred to BYU. DE Daniel Grzesiak, who led the Aggies with 8.5
sacks, transferred to Cincinnati. DE Byron Vaughns (Baylor) and DE
Patrick Joyner (Kansas) both transferred. In the secondary, CB Ajani
Carter (Baylor) and CB Dominic Tatum (Washington State) are both
gone. S Hunter Reynolds, who finished last year with 93 tackles, seven
PBU, and three interceptions, graduated.
Considering the loss of talent, tough schedule, and regression from
close games a year ago, it would be surprising if Utah State reached
bowl eligibility this season.
JARED SMITH
NEVADA OVER 4 WINS
I think Ken Wilson’s second year in Reno will go significantly better
than his first. The Wolf Pack started 2-0, but then finished 0-10 down
the stretch and struggled to find any consistency on offense in their
first season after Jay Norvell bolted for Colorado State. Now that
Wilson has had a full year to get acclimated to being a head coach,
he’s been able to pull some strings in the transfer portal. The former
Oregon DC brought over RB Sean Dollars, who averaged 5.5 yards
per carry for the Ducks last season, in addition to two other talented
linebackers that will add valuable depth to the defense. Under center
it will be Oklahoma State transfer QB Shane Illingsworth, who split
time last season with Nate Cox. Now that Cox has transferred out,
Illingsworth will hopefully gain traction with second-year OC Derek
Sage, who has three years of experience working under Chip Kelly at
UCLA. Nevada’s schedule is the 19th easiest in the country according
to Phil Steele and avoids Boise State, San Jose State, and Air Force
in the Mountain West. Circle the game in Week 3 at home against
Kansas. If the Wolf Pack can take care of business in a night game at
Mackay Stadium against a Power-5 opponent, this win total should
sail over. Even if they can’t get past the Jayhawks, I just don’t see
Nevada going 3-9 this season, which is what would need to happen in
order for us to lose this wager.
UTEP OVER 5.5 WINS
This is expected to be HC Dana Dimel’s best team in his sixth year at the
helm, and I expect the Miners to get to the postseason again like they
did in 2021, when Dimel took the program to their first ever bowl game.
UTEP returns 15 total starters off a team that went 5-7 last year and will
have four-year starter Gavin Hardison under center, who played well
most of last season before getting hurt and missing the final two games.
Tons of skill position depth also returns including top RB Deion Hankins
(2nd team all-conference) and top WR Tyrin Smith (1,039 receiving
yards, 3rd team all-conference). According to Phil Steele, UTEP has the
top rated OL and second-rated DL in the conference, plus the seventh
easiest schedule in the country. They play just one conference road game
against a team that had a winning record last season and get to face
WKU at home. Circle the Week 1 matchup at Jacksonville State, with the
line currently set at a pick’em. If UTEP can get past that toss-up game six
wins should be well within reach. Even if they lose the opener, I still like
their chances of going bowling. Long live the College of Mines!
ADAM BURKE
WESTERN KENTUCKY OVER 8.5 WINS
The class of Conference USA has a good chance at winning at least
10 games, as nonconference matchups at Ohio State and at Troy
are very likely to be the only underdog roles for the Hilltoppers this
season. I personally have them as a touchdown or more favorite in
every other game. The departures of Conference USA’s other top
teams to the AAC will help and so will the return of Austin Reed, who
led the nation in passing yards and has even better talent at wide
receiver this season.
WKU has won nine games in each of the last three non-COVID seasons
and should be able to get to that number, if not more, based on the
schedule, the new-look conference, and the talent on the roster. I have
WKU for 9.17 wins in basically 11 games, since they’ll be a four-
touchdown dog to Ohio State.
MINNESOTA UNDER 7 WINS
PJ Fleck has done a great job with Minnesota, including 29 wins over
the last three non-COVID seasons, but the rest of the division has gotten
better and this feels like a down year for the Golden Gophers. For
the first time since what feels like the Obama Administration, Tanner
Morgan won’t be the QB. Athan Kaliakmanis will be, and while he
was a highly-touted recruit, he didn’t really impress in his five starts last
season, except for the game against Wisconsin, who will be a lot better
this season.
The Golden Gophers face Ohio State and Michigan from the East
Division. Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all teams that I have rated
higher within the division. The Nebraska opener is basically a toss-
up. Minnesota also goes to North Carolina and draws an interesting
matchup against Louisiana sandwiched between two Big Ten games.
Mohamed Ibrahim took nearly 4,700 yards with him as the program’s
all-time leading rusher and there are some big losses on the offensive
line as well, including a second-round draft pick. Outside of Morgan,
the Gophers stayed really healthy on offense, which is always tough
to bank on the following season. Seven wins feels like the ceiling for
this team, so it should be a push at worst and a win at best. I only have
Minnesota for 5.37 wins.
KENTUCKY OVER 7 WINS
Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has returned to Lexington and
Devin Leary has transferred in from NC State, so the Wildcats
offense looks a lot more robust this season. Kentucky won 10 games
in 2021 when Coen was the OC and Will Levis was the quarterback,
as the team averaged 32.3 points per game and 6.4 yards per play.
Last year’s group under Rich Scangarello only mustered 20.4 Points
per game and 5.2 YPP.
Leary got some Heisman buzz a couple of years ago, but injuries
really derailed his chances. Now he gets a fresh start at Kentucky with
Coen and a good cast of receivers, who are basically all returnees.
The Wildcats always seem to find a running game as well, and should
under Coen, after going from 5.2 yards per carry in 2021 to 3.3 in
2022.
Defensively, Mark Stoops always seems to find a way to field a good
unit and DC Brad White has been with the program since 2018. In
that span, the Wildcats have only allowed more than 21.7 points once
and that was during the COVID year in 2020. Last year’s squad only
allowed 19.2 points per game and some of the same faces are back,
along with some high-upside transfers.
My numbers project 8.24 wins for Kentucky, as they’ll be favored
30+ points in all three nonconference games and then over a two-
touchdown favorite against Vanderbilt. They do draw Alabama and
also get Georgia on the road, but I have them favored in nine games
plus a pick ‘em spot in the rivalry game against Tennessee.
7
ZACHARY COHEN
COLORADO UNDER 3.5 WINS
The hype surrounding Colorado is out of control with Deion “Coach
Prime” Sanders now running things in Boulder. With that, every casual
bettor on the planet is running to take the Over on Colorado, especially
with the number being down at 3.5. However, this feels like the ultimate
trap from the oddsmakers, who appear to be begging bettors to throw
a little something on this. I’m not falling for it.
Sanders might ultimately turn this program around — he has already
brought some big-time talent in — but his first year with the team
will likely be rough. For starters, the Buffaloes are significantly
undermanned after having lost tons of players to the transfer portal.
Colorado is also built on players from that portal, so there really isn’t
much chemistry at play here. And the reports out of the Spring Game
weren’t exactly strong — unless you care about attendance.
Colorado also happens to have a tough schedule this year, so that
won’t make things easier. Perhaps Sanders finds a way to double the
Buffaloes’ win total from last year. However, that would mean just two
wins for Colorado, and that’s why I like the Under.
MIAMI (FL) OVER 7.5 WINS
I’m normally the type that likes to avoid overhyped teams like Miami,
but it feels like the Hurricanes have no buzz heading into the season.
This team was something of a disaster last year, but I love both
coordinators that Mario Cristobal brought in. Shannon Dawson should
be able to overhaul the Miami offense, as he comes from a Houston
Cougars program that is known for scoring with ease. His presence
should do wonders for Tyler Van Dyke, who has all the talent in the
world. And new defensive coordinator Lance Guidry fielded an elite
defense with the Marshall Thundering Herd last year, and he inherits a
good group of players in Coral Gables.
Lacking good athletes and talented football players will never be
much of an issue for a team like Miami but having the right coaches
to develop players and get the most out of the roster can be. But this
year’s team has a great coaching staff and returns a lot of players with
experience. That means that the Hurricanes could be one of the biggest
surprises in the nation in 2023.
I wouldn’t exactly say Miami’s schedule is easy, but I don’t think it’s
all that difficult either. Meetings with the Texas A&M Aggies, Clemson
Tigers and Florida State Seminoles could be brutal for the Hurricanes.
But they’ll feel good about their chances in every other game they play.
I think they’ll win at least eight of those nine, and I love that you can
get it at plus-money odds.
WISCONSIN OVER 8.5 WINS
Wisconsin isn’t like most teams that hire a new coach in the offseason.
The Badgers brought in one of the top coaches in the entire country in
Luke Fickell, who led the Cincinnati Bearcats to the College Football
Playoff in 2021. Wisconsin also hired one of the best offensive
coordinators in the nation in Phil Longo. But the big difference is
that the team also has 18 returning starters when you factor in the
arrivals of quarterback Tanner Mordecai (SMU) and center Jake
Renfro (Cincinnati). This is a very experienced group and there’s talent
scattered all throughout the depth chart.
With more structure and a clear vision for how this program can win,
the Badgers should be ready to go from the jump. And Wisconsin has
a very favorable schedule in 2023, making it hard to believe the team
won’t find a way to win at least nine games. The toughest games on the
schedule for the Badgers are road games against the Washington State
Cougars, Illinois Fighting Illini and Minnesota Golden Gophers, plus a
home game against the Ohio State Buckeyes. That last game is one that
could easily get away from Wisconsin. But the Badgers lost to all three
of those road opponents in 2022, so revenge will be on their minds
there. It’d be surprising if they don’t win at least two of those three, and
that makes nine wins seem easy.
Wisconsin feels like a team that is more likely to earn double-digit wins
than just eight wins. And the Badgers just might challenge some of the
elite teams in the Big Ten rather shortly.
STEVE MAKINEN
KANSAS OVER 6 WINS
Another team that made a quantum leap last season and is looking to
build upon the momentum in 2023 is Kansas, and if the pattern follows
anything the likes of which HC Lance Leipold accomplished at UW-
Whitewater & Buffalo, this team should continue trending upward. The
Jayhawks were 6-7 last year, and bring back 17 starters, including QB
Jalon Daniels, who, after a fast start, was lost to injury and missed five
starts last year. The offense definitely curtailed without him, dropping
by about 10 points per game in his absence. This is also one of four
teams with 13+ starters returning and coming back after a year that
endured a losing record despite outscoring opponents. This is a big
improvement scenario usually. With a weaker Big 12 lined up for 2023,
I expect Kansas to keep climbing.
RICE OVER 4.5 WINS
During its recent heyday of football success (2012-14), Rice was
playing with players obtained in recruiting classes ranked in the
low 90’s across the country typically, Three of the last four classes
under HC Mike Bloomgren were at such a level, and the Owls could
be ready to see those efforts bear fruit on the field. One of the key
pieces brought in this season is transfer QB JT Daniels, who has the
experience and pedigree to post some of the best numbers the Owls
have seen at the position in many years. This team won five games
last year despite a horrible turnover ratio and brings back 14 starters.
Even with a switch to the AAC, I don’t see this group being worse
than a year ago.
TENNESSEE UNDER 9.5 WINS
The oddsmakers clearly think a lot higher of this year’s Tennessee
team than I do, as they have set a season win total prop of 9.5
while my power ratings against the ’23 schedule show the Vols
winning just 8.1 games. Why the disconnect? Well, for me, I’m of the
belief that this team may have caught lightning in a bottle last year.
Three of their first six wins were by seven points or less, including
the memorable 52-49 win over Alabama. If any of those games
turned the other way, we aren’t thinking nearly as highly of HC Josh
Heupel’s team. Second, QB Hendon Hooker put it all together last
year for this offense. For as much as replacement Joe Milton is a
high-quality option, and fared very well in Hooker’s absence from
injury, I’m not sure he can sustain the magic this offense had for all of
2022. Third, replacing WR Jalin Hyatt and his production is going to
be virtually impossible. If that weren’t enough, the Vols’ SEC division
crossover games are against Alabama & Texas A&M. I’m projecting
8-4 or 9-3 tops.
UAB UNDER 5 WINS
The third and final ZERO team for the 2023 season in terms of
Stability Scores is UAB, under the leadership of first-time head coach
Trent Dilfer, a curious hire at best. Dilfer’s first job will be a tough
one, as UAB is switching conferences to the AAC (from C-USA) and
has only seven starters back. This program has been riding high
under Bill Clark and Bryant Vincent, but this hire is a massive shock to
the system. The Blazers qualified for a bowl game in every year since
returning to FBS football in 2017 after a two-year hiatus. That was
a remarkable feat. It’s a good bet that streak ends in 2023 as they
play what looks like a tougher than usual schedule for the program.
In fact, I could see a scenario where this team loses all six of its
road games. Going 6-0 at home to beat this win total is not going to
happen either.
8
MITCH MOSS
MIAMI (FLA.) UNDER 7.5 WINS
The Hurricanes were arguably the most disappointing team in the entire
country last year. They lost five games at home, but they weren’t just
losses. They were destroyed in all but one of those performances.
Here is how ugly it was:
Middle Tennessee beat them 45-31. The Hurricanes were outgained
507-367; and 8.3 yards per play to 4.1.
Two weeks later North Carolina traveled to south Florida and won 27-
24. This was a close game on the scoreboard and on paper. Each team
averaged 6.6 yards per play.
Two weeks later it was Duke’s turn. The Blue Devils beat the Hurricanes
45-21. In a season filled with “rock bottom” moments, this game may
have taken the cake. Miami had EIGHT turnovers.
Miami lost to Florida State 45-3 at home in early November (7.0 to 3.6
YPP), and closed a dismal regular season with a 42-16 home loss to Pitt
(8.1 to 5.8 YPP).
A previous season usually doesn’t have much to do with the following
year, but there is one thing I can’t shake with this program: the head
coach. Second year man Mario Cristobal has proven to be a solid
recruiter over his time at Oregon and Miami, but that’s where the
compliments end. He was overmatched with the Ducks, and it remained
that way in his first year at Miami.
Thanks to professional sports bettor Paul Stone for this incredible note:
Over the past five seasons - when favored by 9.5 or fewer points - the
Hurricanes are only 8-13 STRAIGHT UP! Cristobal is also 7-21-2 ATS in
his last 30 games as a coach.
I think it’s another long year for this once elite program.
CLEMSON OVER 10 WINS
Not many programs can finish the season 11-3 (9-0 in conference) and
call it a disappointment. Put Clemson on the short list.
A seemingly broken offense the past two seasons should look much
different this year. Cade Klubnik should be an upgrade at QB by
default, and the Tigers welcome in new offensive coordinator Garrett
Riley. The latter made the move after helping TCU reach the national
championship game last year.
I called the offense broken because the unit “only” averaged 33.1
points per game last season. That ranked 24th nationally. They
averaged 24.4 points per game the season before. That was good for
85th. The offense averaged 40+ points per game the three seasons
before that - ranking fourth in the country every year. They have the
right parts in place for the offense to return to the glory year from not
that long ago.
I won’t call the schedule a gift, but they caught some breaks. Florida
State and Notre Dame each have to travel to Death Valley. The Tigers
are laying 2.5 points to the Seminoles, and 4.5 points to the Fighting
Irish. They’re also currently listed as favorites in the following games at
DraftKings:
• 12 at Duke on September 4
• 10 at Miami on October 21
• 10.5 at N.C. State on October 28
• 10.5 vs. North Carolina on November 18
• 6.5 at South Carolina (in a major revenge spot) on November 25
A conference record of 53-5 since 2015 is also pretty good. They went
8-0 four times during that stretch in ACC play, and either 7-1 or 8-1
three other times. I expect the same in 2023.
BEN WILSON
MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 5.5 WINS
Towards the back end of an unexpected 11-win season in 2021, head
coach Mel Tucker was rewarded with a new 10-year, $95 million
contract. But despite being known for his defensive coaching prowess,
Tucker’s Spartans have ranked outside the top 100 in total defense
each of the past two seasons. Without RB Kenneth Walker III to rely on,
2022 turned disastrous early and often, ending with a 5-7 record.
While you’d expect some improvement on the defensive end after 27
different players saw at least one start in 2022, it’s hard to be excited
about a unit that has been uncompetitive for two years running under
Tucker and his embattled DC Scottie Hazelton.
AUBURN OVER 6.5 WINS
It was a long road back, but Hugh Freeze is back in the SEC. Say
what you want about Freeze, he is more equipped to deal with an SEC
program culture than Bryan Harsin was. Former Tigers great Cadillac
Williams did a solid enough job keeping this team engaged with the
season after Harsin was fired eight games into the season. Williams
was retained by Freeze as the associate head coach, which was a very
popular move with the returning lettermen.
The Tigers had a great deal of bad luck last season with injuries,
coaching staff changes, and especially turnovers. Auburn finished
122nd in turnover margin. With nine starters back on defense, plus
bringing back a dynamic runner at QB with Robby Ashford and the late
spring addition of Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne, the turnover
number should be substantially improved.

If there’s going to be a saving grace for Sparty in 2023, it’s the
offense. But that side of the ball was thrown into flux after the Spring
Game when returning QB Payton Thorne and top returning WR Keon
Coleman each entered the transfer portal. While early reports have
been promising on new signal caller Noah Kim, the redshirt junior only
appeared in four games over his first three years on campus in East
Lansing.
Outside of an above-average offensive line that was a top five Big
Ten unit in pass protection last year, Michigan State is young and
inexperienced across the board. Sparty also faces a consensus top-10
toughest schedule in the country this year and are double-digit ‘dogs
in four Game of the Year lines (+12 vs. Washington, +19 vs. Michigan,
+25.5 at Ohio State, and +13 vs. Penn State in Detroit).
It all adds up to Under in 2023. While -165 is a generous price to pay,
a good amount of the market has already moved to 5 with some shops
even down to 4.5.
Auburn should have five wins over the following: New Mexico State,
Vanderbilt, Samford, Cal and UMass. They have sure losses against the
SEC elite: Alabama, Georgia, and LSU. That leaves the coin flip games:
Arkansas, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
The Tigers played tentatively for most of last season due to the cloud of
Harsin’s job status hanging over them. They will not have that issue this
season.
COLORADO STATE OVER 4.5 WINS
It was a predictably difficult season for Colorado State in the first year
under Jay Norvell as the Rams went 3-9. The offensive line allowed 59
sacks, the most in FBS. The Rams were the third worst scoring offense
(13.2 points per game) in FBS. However, the team showed improvement
late in the season particularly on defense, who returns eight starters, by
only allowing 20.0 points per game in conference play.
QB Clay Millen also led FBS in completion percentage (72.2%) and he
is back along with receiver Tory Horton, who might be the best receiver

WES REYNOLDS in the Mountain West Conference.

While opening with two Pac-12 opponents in Washington State and at

WAKE FOREST UNDER 6.5 WINS Colorado, the schedule is very manageable. They could be favored
or a pick’em in three of their four conference road games (Utah State,
The next time that fans of the Demon Deacons will see QB Sam
UNLV, Wyoming, Hawaii). Plus, the tougher conference opponents
Hartman will be on November 18 in South Bend when the former Wake
(Boise State, Air Force, San Diego State) are all at home.
starting signal-caller will be in a Notre Dame uniform. Hartman started
45 games for the Deacs and threw for just under 13,000 yards and 110
Norvell went 3-9 in his first season at Nevada and turned it around to
TDs vs. just 41 INTs. Wake head coach Dave Clawson, one of the best
have the Wolfpack 8-5 by Year 2. As a non-Power Five, the Mountain
coaches in the ACC, compares new starter sophomore Mitch Griffis to
West does not have much of a talent gap top to bottom, so quick
former Deacs QB John Wolford, but replacing Hartman and leading
turnarounds can and do happen frequently in this league.
receiver AT Perry (1096 yards, 81 catches, 11 TD) is a big ask for what
was a top 10 passing offense in the country last year.

Wake Forest only brings back two starters on the offensive line and has
to replace its entire starting defensive line. Most of the back five is back
for defensive coordinator Brad Lambert, but that group ranked 114th
nationally in pass defense last season.

After opening with a soft on-ramp to the 2023 season (Elon, Vanderbilt,
at Old Dominion, Georgia Tech), Wake’s schedule is brutal in October/
November with consecutive road games at Clemson and at Virginia
Tech. Next, they get a Pitt club that is one of the more physical teams
in the league followed by a Florida State bunch who has the highest
expectations that they have had in several seasons. Starting November,
a road trip to Duke, who returns its starting QB and entire skill position
corps from a nine-win team, then NC State, who upgrades at QB with
Virginia transfer Brennan Armstrong. Finally, Wake closes with two
straight road games at Notre Dame and at Syracuse.

Clawson has gotten Wake Forest to bowl games in seven straight

seasons, and more than likely, he finds a way to make it eight straight,
but there are not seven wins on this arduous schedule.

9
VSIN
TIM MURRAY
TEXAS TO WIN BIG 12 (+110)
If not now… when? Texas has been the definition of

EXPERT
“overhyped and under deliver” for the past decade. However,
this Longhorns team is stacked and is clearly the superior
team in the Big 12. In Game of the Year lines at DraftKings
Sportsbook, Texas is an eight-point favorite at Baylor, 18-point
favorite vs. Kansas, 6.5-point favorite over Oklahoma in Dallas,
9.5-point favorite vs Kansas State, and a six-point favorite at
TCU. While Texas did lose a pair of dynamic running backs
in Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson to the NFL, the
Longhorns return 10 starters on offense. The entire offensive

FUTURES
line returns with over 100 career starts. WR Xavier Worthy is
one of the top returning receivers in the country. WR Jordan
Whittington had 652 receiving yards last year and WR Isaiah
Neyor will make his Texas debut this fall. Neyor transferred to
Texas from Wyoming but tore his ACL in preseason last year.
Texas also added Adonai Mitchell from Georgia in the portal.
Mitchell was ranked the #3 player in the portal according to
247 Sports. Defensively, Texas returns six starters including

AND
LB Jaylan Ford. The Longhorns added S Jalen Catalon from
Arkansas to bolster the secondary.

All five of Texas’ losses last year were by one possession.

The Longhorns also blew 14-point leads against Oklahoma
State and Texas Tech. The talent in Austin is there, it is up
to Steve Sarkisian to deliver the Longhorns’ first conference
championship since 2009.

PROPS
Hook ‘em.

MITCH MOSS
WISCONSIN TO WIN BIG TEN WEST DIVISION (+125)
There is a LOT to like about the upcoming Wisconsin football
season, and the future of the program. I’ve been watching
this team for as long as I can remember. Let’s just say I was
pleasantly surprised when they landed Luke Fickell as their new
head coach. Going from Paul Chryst to Fickell might be the

BEST
biggest upgrade in the country.

Other reasons why I really like the 2023 Badgers:

• Phil Longo is the new OC. Think of what the offenses
looked like under him while at Ole Miss and North
Carolina. We’re talking about a complete one hundred
and eighty degree turn around with UW. It’s no longer
four yards and a cloud of dust. Say goodbye to the days
of running the football 50 times per game. It’s about time.
• Which means hello SMU transfer QB Tanner Mordecai
and his 3500 yards plus 33 touchdowns from a year ago.
• And hello to former four-star WR CJ Williams, who
transfers in from USC

BETS
• Three starters will be back on the O-line, including Trey
Wedig and Jack Nelson. Each are former four-star
recruits.
• Oh, and Braelon Allen is a phenomenal college RB
• The defense should be fine despite losing proven DC Jim
Leonhard. All of the starting LB’s are back, and they’re
strong at the position
• Favorable schedule. at Purdue, at Illinois, at Indiana, and
they close at Minnesota. HOME: Iowa, Nebraska, and
Ohio State.

I can’t wait to watch “Jump Around” at Camp Randall this

season.

10
MICHIGAN TO MAKE THE PLAYOFF YES (+115)
Remember when Jim Harbaugh was in hot water as the head coach of
the Wolverines? I do. It wasn’t that long ago.
2020 was a strange year for everybody. Harbaugh’s bunch finished
the pandemic-shortened season with a 2-4 record. They lost to Indiana
by 17. Wisconsin blew them out at the Big House by a score of 49-11. It
was an ugly season, and countless stories were written suggesting that
Harbaugh’s time in Ann Arbor was nearing a close.
Since then the maize and blue have won 25 football games and played
in consecutive CFB Playoffs. Maybe even more importantly the team
has gone 2-0 versus bitter rival Ohio State in that time, including a
45-23 stomping of the Buckeyes at The Horseshoe a season ago. After
years of conference domination by Urban Meyer’s Columbus crew, it
appears Harbaugh has flipped the script and turned Michigan into the
best program in the Big Ten.
Upsets happen all the time in this sport, but as of this post, DraftKings
has Michigan favored by 18 points at Nebraska, and by 19 points
at Michigan State. Landmines must be avoided at Happy Valley on
November 11th, and in the final regular season game at home against
Ohio State. The Wolverines are small favorites in both of those games.
I believe a trip to the playoff is still feasible if they stub their toe in one
of the two latter contests.
Given that they’d play the title game at home, I’d currently have
them at least a touchdown favorite against everybody in the division
and it may even be a larger line by then. QB Austin Reed threw for
4,744 yards and 40 touchdowns last season and the conference is
much weaker this year. Even if WKU starts slow, the last three games
are against New Mexico State, Sam Houston State, and FIU, so they
should roll through those and at least finish first or second to be in the
game.
They should be a bigger favorite than this and likely will be when the
game rolls around.
TANNER MORDECAI TO WIN THE HEISMAN (+10000)
Tanner Mordecai is not the runner that Drake Maye is. Maye actually
led the Tar Heels in rush attempts in Phil Longo’s offense last season.
However, we could see more Mordecai scrambles, but we’ll also see
the best QB that the Badgers have had in Madison since Russell Wilson
transferred in from NC State.
Mordecai has 72 touchdown passes to his name and over 7,100 yards
as he goes into Wisconsin with a chance to really shine. Braelon Allen
will still get his fair share of touches, but the Tar Heels ran 1,034 plays
last season, so there will be plenty of opportunities to go around. North
Carolina was one of three teams to have 500 running plays and 500
passing plays (UTSA, Texas Tech), so this will be a balanced offense
capable of explosive plays.

ADAM BURKE Wisconsin will be favored in every game except one for me and a win
against Ohio State on October 28 could be the springboard to really
get Mordecai in the national discussion. In the other 11 games, I have
GEORGIA SOUTHERN TO WIN SUN BELT (+1800) Wisconsin at least -6.5, so Mordecai will have the chance to have a
The Sun Belt East Division is the most competitive division in the Group great record and great numbers at a noteworthy program.
of Five, but all of the teams are flawed in some way. Appalachian State
has a new QB and only went 6-6 last season, as head coach Shawn
Clark is now four seasons removed from Eli Drinkwitz and five from
Scott Satterfield, so he’s lost a lot of production from previous regimes
and the team hasn’t been as sharp.

Coastal Carolina has a new head coach in Tim Beck, who many
consider to be a big drop-off from Jamey Chadwell. Grayson McCall
is back, but he’s leading a different offense and the Coastal defense
really fell off last season. James Madison has a new QB as well and
a ton of losses in Year 2 as a FBS program. Marshall only returns four
starters from a defense that held opponents to 16 points per game and
the offense only managed 24.5 points per game themselves with a low
ceiling.

All of those factors could open the door for Georgia Southern to be the Tanner Mordecai
class of the East. Tulsa transfer Davis Brin has thrown for over 5,400
yards in his college career and seems like a great fit for Clay Helton’s
team and Bryan Ellis’s offense. The Eagles return their top rusher and
top two receivers, as well as the majority of an offensive line that
allowed just seven sacks last season. The Eagles have a new DC in
Brandon Bailey, who held their high-powered offense to just 21 points
in the Camellia Bowl.

While the Eagles project to be an underdog to either Troy or South

Alabama in a hypothetical Sun Belt Championship Game, they might
have the most untapped upside in the East Division and I think that
makes them worthy of taking the chance that they live up to it.

WESTERN KENTUCKY TO WIN CONFERENCE USA (+130)

My Power Ratings have Western Kentucky at least five points better
than every other team in Conference USA. The Hilltoppers should
be the biggest benefactor of the defections of UTSA, FAU, UAB,
and others. Liberty’s awful schedule is the only reason why I have
a high win total projection on the Flames, but Louisiana Tech is the
only other team I have as reaching bowl eligibility. My projection
for Western Kentucky is 9.17 wins, so not only are the ‘Tops one of
my favorite win total bets, but I’d be shocked if they didn’t win this
conference.

11
DAVE TULEY
UTAH TO WIN PAC-12 (+600) AND TO WIN CFB PLAYOFF (+7000)
Utah was my longshot to win the national title in last year’s betting
guide, but those hopes were crippled with a 29-26 loss to the Florida
Gators in The Swamp in the season opener. It seems everyone is
jumping on the USC bandwagon with defending Heisman Trophy
winner Caleb Williams, but remember that Utah beat them 43-42 in
the regular season and then really ran over them 47-24 in the Pac-12
Championship Game in Las Vegas.
In horse racing, I always say “I’d rather be on a horse sooner rather
than later,” meaning I want to bet a horse (or team) before everyone
else, not when they’re on everyone’s radar and going off as the
chalk. That doesn’t always work in college football with the increasing
turnover in teams from year to year since the advent of the transfer
portal an NIL deals; however, Utah returns 13 starters, including QB
Cameron Rising (recovering from a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl) and the
core of a defense that allowed just 21.4 points per game.
The opener is against Florida again, but this year the Utes are 8-point
home favorites and have a better chance to get off to a strong start
and move up the polls.
The one question is Rising’s rehab. All reports have him ahead
of schedule. We believe the time to bet them is over the summer
(DraftKings had them at 6-1 to win the Pac-12 and 70-1 to win the
national title in late July when this guide was being produced). I’m
pretty confident that when Rising is cleared to play that oddsmakers
will lower the Utes’ odds and the public will probably bet them even
lower.
ZACHARY COHEN
UTAH TO WIN THE PAC-12 (+600) & UTAH TO MAKE THE
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF (+900)
USC is once again the popular pick to win the Pac-12 and it’s hard to
blame anybody for loving the Trojans. But Lincoln Riley’s team has a
few games on the schedule that are absolutely terrifying, with road
meetings with the Arizona State Sun Devils, Notre Dame Fighting
Irish and Oregon Ducks being three that are extremely dangerous.
With that in mind, I don’t see the Trojans as a lock to make the Pac-12
Championship Game. But even if they do, I think the Utah Utes will eat
their lunch again.
Last year, Utah beat USC 43-42 in an instant classic at Rice-Eccles
Stadium, and the Utes then beat the Trojans down in a 47-24 win in
the Pac-12 Championship Game. Utah has 16 returning starters from
that team, with nine of them coming on the defensive side of the ball.
That means that the same defense that had Caleb Williams fighting for
his life will once again be on the other side of the ball. Utah also has
Cameron Rising back under center, and he’s a guy I trust as much as
anyone in college football in big-game environments — especially with a
great offensive line blocking for him.
I simply view Kyle Whittingham as the best coach in this conference,
so I like his chances of going out and making a splash with a very
experienced and talented team. Maybe USC will win its home game
against Utah during the regular season. But I’d still like the Utes’
chances of getting back to the Pac-12 Championship Game, even with
a hiccup like that. And on a neutral field, I’d take the team that is more
prepared, hungrier for success and tired of being forgotten.
Making the College Football Playoff is a bit tougher, but it’s worth a
sprinkle if you believe Utah can win the Pac-12. The conference should
be better in 2023, so I expect one of the four playoff teams to emerge
from here.
WISCONSIN TO WIN BIG TEN WEST (+130)
While Wisconsin hired an Air Raid offensive coordinator, I don’t think
the Badgers will completely move away from their bread and butter.
Sure, Wisconsin is going to open things up and let star quarterback
12
Tanner Mordecai take his shots, which means opponents won’t know
exactly what the Badgers are doing on first and second down. But
Wisconsin still has an elite running back in Braelon Allen, and he’s
running behind an experienced offensive line. With that said, this is still
going to be a dangerous running team and you’re probably going to
get the best of both worlds from this Badgers offense in 2023. That will
make this a very tough team to defend once everybody is comfortable
in the new system. Meanwhile, the Badgers are loaded on the
defensive side of the ball, and new defensive coordinator Mike Tressel
has gotten a lot out of less talented groups.
If Wisconsin can work out the kinks over the first few weeks of the year,
there just isn’t much preventing the Badgers from winning the Big Ten
West. The biggest challengers in the division are the Iowa Hawkeyes,
but Wisconsin will be playing at home when these two meet. That will
be a huge advantage for the Badgers, who will also be hoping to get
some revenge for last year’s 24-10 loss to the Hawkeyes.
Wisconsin also has a renewed energy with Luke Fickell leading the
program, and he’s a guy that is driven to succeed — and he wants to do
it fast. With that in mind, I think you’ll see a fired-up squad, and you’ll
also see a group that is well prepared on a week-to-week basis. That’s
bad news for teams like the Illinois Fighting Illini and Minnesota Golden
Gophers, who got the best of Wisconsin in a down 2022 season.
These Badgers should win 10 games in 2023. That would be more than
enough for them to win a weak Big Ten West.
JONATHAN VON TOBEL
FRESNO STATE TO WIN MOUNTAIN WEST (+400)
The Bulldogs have lost a great deal of production from last year’s
Mountain West Championship team, but Jeff Tedford has plenty for a
quick turnaround and title defense. Mikey Keene transferred in from
UCF to compete with Logan Fife for the quarterback job vacated by
Jake Haener. Keene is the leader in the clubhouse to win the job, and
Tedford has done tremendous work with quarterbacks in the past so
whoever starts will be set up for success.
Malik Sherrod, who ran for nearly 500 yards last season and averaged
5.4 yards per carry, is set to take over the lead running back role, and
four players with starting experience are back along the offensive line.
The rebuild on offense looks like it could be quick, and if it is, that will
be a boon for a defense which brings back seven starters from last
season.
Fresno State has to go to San Jose and San Diego at the end of the
season, as well as host Boise State, but this team has enough to make it
through those challenges and Tedford has proven to be the best head
coach in the conference. This team should not have this price to win the
Mountain West.
COASTAL CAROLINA TO WIN SUN BELT (+450)
Despite having Grayson McCall back for his fifth season, Coastal
Carolina is only the third choice on the board to win the Sun Belt.
However, the Chanticleers are the favorite to win its division, which puts
them in the driver’s seat to make the Sun Belt championship.
First-year head coach Tim Beck also has a roster with a lot of
experience, especially on offense. Around McCall are the three leading
wide receivers from 2022, the top three rushers and an offensive line
which brings back three starters. The defense will be a question with six
starters back from a unit that allowed 31.8 points per game last season,
but an assumed improvement from the unit paired with an elite offense
should keep the group from being a massive weakness.
Coastal also draws a favorable schedule that does not include games
against either Troy or South Alabama, and the program gets to host
Marshall. The path to a title game berth with a chance to win it is high
for the Chanticleers, and the probability of them winning the conference
is higher than +450 would indicate.
COLLEGE
FOOTBALL
PRESEASON
TOP 25
by Matt Youmans

#1
GEORGIA

Kirby Smart

13
At the time, Nick Saban was probably unaware he was creating
a monster. Saban’s singular focus on winning and the process of
maintaining dominance made him the king of college football. He has
won seven national championships, including six as Alabama coach.
The monster Saban helped create was Kirby Smart, who served as his
defensive coordinator from 2008 to 2015, when the Crimson Tide won
four titles. Smart got his head-coaching start at Georgia in 2016, and
look who’s on top now.
The Bulldogs have won 29 of 30 games the past two years and
are eyeing a national championship three-peat, a feat not even
accomplished by Saban. Smart has become the new dominant force of
the Southeastern Conference, and Georgia has earned the right to be
the starting point for VSiN’s college football power rankings in 2023.
“I still have Georgia No. 1, so I’m definitely buying in,” South Point
sports book director Chris Andrews said. “It seems like they are
reloading every year, and I hate to use that expression, but it’s really
true.”
After winning the 2021 title, the Bulldogs had a record 15 players
selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. Smart reloaded and went 15-0 to
record back-to-back championships. Georgia lost 10 players in this
year’s draft, including two-year starting quarterback Stetson Bennett.
It’s remarkable a program could lose 25 players to the draft in two
years and remain preseason No. 1.
The Bulldogs’ projected starting quarterback is sophomore Carson
Beck, who attempted only 35 passes last year, and some might see a
new QB as a sign of weakness. But Alabama and Ohio State also must
replace star quarterbacks — Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, respectively
— so no other team is an obvious pick to knock Georgia from the top
spot.
“I’m just not sure who I would power-rate over Georgia,” Fox Sports
analyst Chris “The Bear” Fallica said. “Ohio State lost a ton, including
on the offensive line, which most are not talking about. I guess
Michigan would be the answer, but are we buying into that team which
gave up 51 points to TCU in the playoff? It almost feels like a by-default
situation. I do know someone who sees Georgia every day and said
this is the best two-deep Smart has had. Maybe not the best from an
Kyle McCord
14
elite NFL draft-pick standpoint right now, but they are stacked. It’s on
the QB.”
From a quarterback standpoint, USC owns the best starting point in
reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. The Trojans were a
win away from the four-team playoff last season before falling to Utah
in the Pac-12 title game, and coach Lincoln Riley has more horses in his
second season.
Paul Stone, a college football handicapper from Texas, said LSU and
USC are teams with second-year coaches that could make the playoff if
any other top teams stumble. Brian Kelly won 10 games in his first year
with the Tigers and returns quarterback Jayden Daniels.
“I believe the landscape in college football is ripe for a team outside
the usual suspects to make the playoff,” Stone said. “Georgia, Ohio
State and Alabama all have first-time starting quarterbacks, so the
door’s at least slightly open.”
Stone offered his analysis of several teams and provided his power
rankings, which I combined with my own rankings to form the VSiN
preseason Top 25.
1. GEORGIA
I have suspicions about the superiority of this team, but there’s no proof
of significant decline, and a soft schedule will help the Bulldogs avoid
upsets while their new quarterback matures. Georgia’s only true road
tests will be at Auburn (Sept. 30) and Tennessee (Nov. 18), so Kirby
Smart should be secure at the top until reaching the SEC title game.
2. OHIO STATE
The schedule is stacked against the Buckeyes, who play Notre Dame,
Wisconsin and Michigan on the road, so they face a few high hurdles
on the way to the playoff.
Stone: “Ohio State has some uncertainty at quarterback entering the
season, but if Kyle McCord or Devin Brown can just be good — they
don’t have to be great — the Buckeyes will once again field one of
the nation’s premier offenses. Ohio State is absolutely loaded at both
receiver and running back and will be better defensively.”
 Quinn Ewers
3. USC
Caleb Williams passed for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns with only
five interceptions while rushing for 10 touchdowns last season. He’s the
college version of Patrick Mahomes and the likely No. 1 pick of the
draft. A defense that allowed 29.2 points per game returns nine starters
and adds several transfers, including tackle Bear Alexander (Georgia)
and linebacker Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State). I rank the Trojans No.
2, and Stone ranks them No. 6. “USC’s Achilles’ heel last year was
clearly its defense,” Stone said, “but the Trojans will be significantly
improved on that side of the ball through transfer additions.”
4. MICHIGAN
Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh has won back-to-back Big Ten titles
and brings back his most productive offensive players — quarterback
J.J. McCarthy and running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.
The defense is a minor concern after getting exposed in last season’s
final two games against Purdue and TCU.
5. LSU
Jayden Daniels is the top returning quarterback in the SEC, and
linebacker Harold Perkins could be the conference’s top defensive
player. Brian Kelly’s first year in Baton Rouge produced a victory over
Alabama and a 20-point loss to Georgia in the SEC title game.
6. ALABAMA
It’s tough to rank the Tide outside the top five, but Nick Saban has only
10 starters returning and must replace quarterback Bryce Young and
both coordinators. Young worked some miracles to get Alabama to 11-
2. Ty Simpson, Jalen Milroe and Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner are
battling for the starting quarterback job.
7. CLEMSON
Sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik has some questions to answer
after a poor finish to last season, but he’s a dual threat with a lot of
talent. The Tigers also return running back Will Shipley, an experienced
offensive line and eight defensive starters.
8. PENN STATE
The Nittany Lions won 11 games, losing only to Michigan and Ohio
State, and return eight starters on both sides of the ball. Nicholas
Singleton and Kaytron Allen form an elite backfield tandem, and new
quarterback Drew Allar could be an upgrade at the position.
15
9. TEXAS
The Big 12 preseason favorite, Texas has not won the league since
2009. The Longhorns have stayed Under their win total in 10 of the
past 11 years, so underachieving is a long trend. Third-year sophomore
Quinn Ewers leads an offense that should be explosive. The schedule is
far from easy, and coach Steve Sarkisian is one game over .500 after
two seasons in Austin. According to Stone, “Texas clearly has the best
roster in the Big 12, and there are no glaring weaknesses. If Ewers can
take the next step and fulfill his immense promise, the Longhorns could
be one of college football’s biggest stories.”
10. WASHINGTON
Kalen DeBoer took an offense that averaged 21.5 points the previous
year and improved it to 39.7 points per game in his debut as coach.
Michael Penix ranked second in the nation with 4,641 passing yards
last season, and Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze are elite receivers.
The Huskies will be a legit threat to win the Pac-12, so circle their Nov.
4 game at USC.
11. FLORIDA STATE
The development of quarterback Jordan Travis, who passed for 24
touchdowns and rushed for seven, was the key to coach Mike Norvell’s
turnaround to 10-3 in his third season in Tallahassee. The Seminoles,
who return 17 starters, will get tested against LSU and Clemson in
September.
12. NOTRE DAME
Sam Hartman, a transfer from Wake Forest, will give the Irish the
quarterback play they need to complement coach Marcus Freeman’s
veteran defense. Ohio State and USC visit South Bend.
13. WISCONSIN
Expect a big bounce-back season for the Badgers, who return 18 starters
and get a quarterback upgrade from SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai.
Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi will lead a powerful running attack. New
coach Luke Fickell will design one of the nation’s top defenses.
14. OREGON
Ducks coach Dan Lanning, a former Georgia defensive coordinator,
enters his second year with eight starters back on both sides of the ball.
Senior quarterback Bo Nix, a burnout at Auburn, was rejuvenated last
season in a new conference and accounted for 43 total touchdowns.
15. TENNESSEE
The Volunteers must replace star quarterback Hendon Hooker, who
beat LSU and Alabama, and former Michigan transfer Joe Milton has
been a talented enigma in his career. Still, most signs are encouraging
for coach Josh Heupel after an 11-win season and a dominant 31-14
victory over Clemson in the Orange Bowl.
16. UTAH
Kyle Whittingham is a classic tough-guy coach who could have
the toughest offensive and defensive lines in the Pac-12. The Utes
finished 10-4 in each of the past two seasons and won the conference
championship game in a blowout each year. Senior quarterback
Cameron Rising suffered a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl loss to Penn State,
but he’s reportedly ahead of schedule in rehab and expects to be
ready for the Aug. 31 opener against Florida.
17. TEXAS A&M
The Aggies (5-7) were a jumbo disappointment for coach Jimbo Fisher
last year, but he’s got 20 starters returning and gambled on hiring
Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator.
18. KANSAS STATE
Chris Klieman, the Big 12’s best coach, knocked off TCU in the
conference title game, and he’s got eight starters back on offense.
Running back Deuce Vaughn will be missed, but veteran quarterback
Will Howard is a winner.
19. OREGON STATE
Jonathan Smith’s work in Corvallis has been extraordinary,
coaching the Beavers from 2-10 in his first year to 10-3 in his fifth
year. The new quarterback is Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei, who
was inconsistent while going 22-6 as the starter. Oregon State
went 12-1 at home the past two years and hosts UCLA, Utah and
Washington.
16
20. MISSISSIPPI
Despite his efforts to escape Oxford and get to Auburn, coach Lane
Kiffin is back with nine starters on offense and seven on defense.
He has three quarterbacks — Jaxson Dart, Oklahoma State transfer
Spencer Sanders and freshman Walker Howard — competing for the
top job. The schedule will take Kiffin to Alabama, Auburn and Georgia.
21. OKLAHOMA
Brent Venables was a bust in his first year as a head coach. The
Sooners finished 6-7 for their first losing record since 1998. Oklahoma,
which suffered five losses by seven points or fewer, faces a weaker
schedule, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel returns.
22. IOWA
Michigan transfer Cade McNamara will be the new quarterback for the
Hawkeyes, who were in desperate need of a competent passer. The defense
will be typically strong. Iowa will challenge Wisconsin atop the Big Ten West.
23. TEXAS TECH
Eleven starters return on offense, including quarterback Tyler Shough, and
six on defense for underrated coach Joey McGuire. Don’t be too surprised
if the Red Raiders are playing for a Big 12 title on November 24 at Texas.
24. NORTH CAROLINA
Drake Maye passed for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns last season.
He also ran for 698 yards and seven scores. He’s the likely No. 2 draft
pick behind USC’s Williams. The Tar Heels bring back 17 starters for
coach Mack Brown.
25. TCU
A fall from the Top 25 would not be surprising for the Horned Frogs,
who were crushed 65-7 by Georgia in the national title game and
waved goodbye to quarterback Max Duggan. TCU coach Sonny Dykes
gets the benefit of the doubt with this ranking.
DJ Uiagalelei
TOP 50
COLLEGE SEPTEMBER
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by Steve Makinen
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17
A piece of information I utilize each week to
prepare my college football wagering list is the
head-to-head series trends between opponents.
In my opinion, certain opponents consistently
bring out the best or worst in teams. There
are also certain rivalries in which home-field
advantage means a ton or nothing. That’s just
the nature of the series. I found 50 of the more
intriguing head-to-head series trends that will be
impacting the 2023 CFB season. Feel free to pin
these to your calendar and jump on them when
they arise because, trust me, many, or perhaps
even most of them will continue.
WEEK 1
Saturday, September 2, 2023
OHIO STATE AT INDIANA
Trend: Over the total has converted in the last six matchups
Ohio State has put up some lofty scoring totals over the last six years
versus Indiana, averaging 50.2 points per game while topping the
40-point mark each time out. While the Buckeyes have some personnel
losses to deal with on offense to start ’23, they should still hang a good
number on the Hoosiers’ inexperienced defense here.
WEEK 2
Saturday, September 9, 2023
IOWA AT IOWA STATE
Trend: Under the total is 14-4 in this rivalry since 2004
The Iowa-Iowa State rivalry typically brings out the fight in both teams,
and the offenses seem to have to scratch and claw for points. That said,
the 2011 and 2017 games were 44-41 finals. Could 2023 continue that
unusual pattern?
NORTH TEXAS AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Trend: Favorites have won the last seven games both SU and ATS
The North Texas-FIU game on September 9th might not be the first one
that grabs your attention in Week 2, but it has produced a noteworthy
trend in which favorites have dominated. In fact, despite five of these
last seven games showing lines of 10 points or fewer, all but one of
them was decided by 15 points or more.
WEEK 3
Saturday, September 16, 2023
SOUTH CAROLINA AT GEORGIA
Trend: Road teams are 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS since 2016
Count me among the group of prognosticators believing that South
18
Carolina is headed in the right direction under Shane Beamer. This
game at Georgia will go a long way in determining if there is any
merit to that argument. Road teams have thrived in the series. Can the
Gamecocks keep the trend going in Athens?
WEEK 4
Friday, September 22, 2023
WISCONSIN AT PURDUE
Trend: Wisconsin has gone 9-0 SU and ATS in its last nine trips to
Purdue
An intriguing Friday night contest finds a new look Wisconsin facing its
first Big Ten test of the season at Purdue. Old Wisconsin always seemed
to take care of business in West Lafayette. Can the Badgers continue to
do so under head coach Luke Fickell?
Saturday, September 23, 2023
SMU AT TCU
Trend: Road teams have won the last eight games ATS
TCU reached the national championship game last year but has to
replace a ton of production in 2023. After having already faced
Colorado and Houston, this game versus SMU might prove to be the
toughest test to date, as road teams have won the last eight games
against the spread in the head-to-head series. SMU is among the
favorites in the AAC and won outright in its most recent two trips to
Fort Worth.
WEEK 5
Saturday, September 30, 2023
GEORGIA AT AUBURN
Trend: Georgia is on a 9-1 ATS run versus Auburn, including 6-0 SU
and ATS in the last six games
In the leadup to this game, it will probably be stated that this will be
a big test for the two-time defending national champs. It is one of
Georgia’s two cross-divisional SEC games. However, the Bulldogs have
had their way with the Tigers of late, with five of the last six games
being decided by 17 points or more. Don’t be afraid to lay what figures
to be a smaller number than usual by Georgia standards.
ALABAMA AT MISSISSIPPI STATE
Trend: Under the total is 20-5 in this series since 1998, including 11-1
in Starkville
Simply put, the Alabama defense usually dominates Mississippi State’s
offense. In fact, in the last five head-to-head meetings, the Bulldogs
have scored just 22 points, not per game. That’s total. Furthermore,
in the last 10 games at Starkville, MSU has scored just 8.0 points
per game. The Tide defense has been suffocating, and with that
unit expected to be the stronger one in 2023, why should this trend
change?
PITTSBURGH AT VIRGINIA TECH
Trend: Pittsburgh is on a 13-2 ATS run versus Virginia Tech
The annual game versus Virginia Tech has been one of the most
rewarding for Pittsburgh since joining the ACC back in 2013. The
Panthers are 8-2 ATS in this series as conference mates and were 5-0
ATS beforehand. The last three games have been resounding wins for
Pitt by a combined score of 120-50.
LSU AT OLE MISS
Trend: Home teams are on a 9-1 ATS run in this series
LSU is looking for a second straight SEC West Division crown, and to
get it, they’ll probably have to survive this tough contest in Oxford.
The Tigers are just 2-3 outright in their last five visits to the Grove, and
overall, this has been a series dominated by hosts.
SOUTH CAROLINA AT TENNESSEE
Trend: Underdogs are 6-5 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 head-to-
head games
I wrote a bit earlier about South Carolina trending upward under
Beamer. This will be another big test for the Gamecocks to prove that
is true. Tennessee has lost a lot of production but is still commanding
respect. With underdogs historically competing well in this series and
even pulling several outright upsets, could this be a game the Vols get
tripped up?
WEEK 6
Saturday, October 7, 2023
MARYLAND AT OHIO STATE
Trend: Over the total has converted in the last eight matchups
The first trend I discussed in this article found Ohio State lighting up
the Indiana defense with regularity. The numbers have been even more
dramatic against Maryland, with the Buckeyes putting up a whopping
57.4 points per game in head-to-head play since Maryland joined the
Big Ten in 2014. The result has been all Over in the games between the
teams.
ARKANSAS AT OLE MISS
Trend: Arkansas is on a 9-1 ATS run versus Ole Miss
The recent head-to-head series between Arkansas and Ole Miss has
been captivating, with seven of the last 12 games being decided by
five points or fewer. Most of the time, the Rebels have been favored,
as they are expected to be this season. Most of the time, it’s the
Razorbacks getting the job done against the number.
WASHINGTON STATE AT UCLA
Trend: Underdogs are on runs of 6-0 ATS, 10-2 ATS, and 12-3 ATS in
this rivalry
Washington State and UCLA haven’t squared off since 2019, but the
matchups used to occur more frequently, and when they did, it was dog
domination. In the most recent matchup, UCLA pulled a 67-63 upset as
an 18.5-point dog in Pullman.
TEXAS STATE AT LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
Trend: Louisiana-Lafayette has gone 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS versus TSU
since 2013
Louisiana-Lafayette has offered up a pretty rude welcome to Texas
State since the latter joined the Sun Belt Conference in 2013. The Ragin’
Cajuns have won all 10 of the head-to-head matchups outright while
failing to cover just once. The average margin of victory has been 23.7
points per game.
WEEK 7
Saturday, October 14, 2023
KANSAS AT OKLAHOMA STATE
Trend: Favorites are on 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS run in this series
For those of you thinking that this trend would for sure favor Oklahoma
State every year because of Kansas’ brutal recent history, consider that
the Jayhawks turned the tables on the Cowboys last season, winning
37-16 as 3-point chalk. There hasn’t been a game decided by closer
than 18 points in this head-to-head series since 2014.
WYOMING AT AIR FORCE
Trend: Wyoming is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 versus Air Force
An experienced Wyoming team has its sights set on getting to a Mountain
West championship contest this season, and if they are to do so, this
game against Air Force will be a crucial one. Recent history shows that
this has been a favorable series for the Cowboys, and a second straight
upset for head coach Craig Bohl’s team could do wonders.
19
UCLA AT OREGON STATE
Trend: UCLA is on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run at Oregon State
Oregon State is considered an outside contender in the Pac-12 this
season, and like UCLA, will need to take care of the games outside of
USC/Oregon/Utah/etc. to reach its goals. The Beavers have struggled
recently when hosting the Bruins, however, having lost six straight ATS,
including a 41-0 decision in the most recent matchup in 2015.
WEEK 8
Saturday, October 21, 2023
UTAH AT USC
Trend: Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of this series
This game figures to be one of the premier matchups in the Pac-12
all season long, and fans can only hope for a game as thrilling as
the regular season duel these teams put on a year ago when Utah
edged USC 43-42. That game, and the latter one in the Pac-12 title
contest, continued a recent trend of high-scoring clashes between
these rivals.
DUKE AT FLORIDA STATE
Trend: Florida State is on an 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS run versus Duke
If Florida State fulfills its promise as a favorite to reach the ACC title
game in December, surely there will be experts looking at this game
against Duke as a potential landmine type of contest, as the upstart
Blue Devils surprised a lot of teams last season. However, FSU wasn’t
one of them. In fact, the Seminoles have dominated head-to-head play,
winning 20 straight matchups, and only once was the score decided by
fewer than 19 points.
ARIZONA STATE AT WASHINGTON
Trend: Arizona State is on an incredible 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS run
against Washington
I thought last year would be the year that Washington finally overcame
Arizona State’s dominance, but no sir. An expectedly overmatched
Sun Devils team pulled a massive upset of the Huskies, winning 45-38
as 13.5-point home dogs. Washington figures to be an even bigger
favorite at home this time around. Can Washington get this monkey off
their back?
CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT BALL STATE
Trend: Road teams are 13-3 SU and 14-2 ATS in this rivalry
Central Michigan plays to a number of huge head-to-head series trends
each year, some of which you have yet to see. In this one, we find road
teams dominating their MAC series with Ball State, not only against
the spread but outright as well. There have been six upsets by road
underdogs among these 16 contests.
UTAH STATE AT SAN JOSE STATE
Trend: Utah State has won 10 straight versus San Jose State while
going 9-1 ATS
Utah State has been marginally better as a program overall than San
Jose State dating back to 2009, the year this trend started, but that
doesn’t come close to explaining the dominance in head-to-head play.
The Aggies’ offense has fattened its’ numbers against the Spartans,
scoring 43.2 points per game in these last 10 matchups.
OLE MISS AT AUBURN
Trend: Auburn is on an 11-3 SU and 10-2-2 ATS run against Ole Miss
I explained earlier that, for whatever reason, some teams just fare
better against certain opponents, regardless of the perceived level of
the programs. Auburn and Ole Miss have been comparable-level teams
in recent years, yet the Tigers dominate the Rebels in head-to-head
play. That said, Ole Miss was a pretty heavy favorite (-15) last year,
and Auburn got the scratch cover 34-48. Could that decision propel
head coach Lane Kiffin’s team to just its third ATS win in the series since
2009 this fall?
WEEK 9
Saturday, October 28, 2023
ARKANSAS STATE AT LOUISIANA-MONROE
Trend: Arkansas State is on a 13-game SU and ATS winning streak in
this series
Even though the teams meet on the football field every season, it
has been 14 years since Louisiana-Monroe beat Arkansas State.
Making matters much worse, the Warhawks haven’t even covered a
point spread in that time span! How improbable has this run been by
Arkansas State? Well, 10 of the 13 games showed lines of 10 points
or less, so theoretically, Louisiana-Monroe should have been far more
competitive.
FLORIDA STATE AT WAKE FOREST
Trend: The last eight games in this series went Under the total
When you think of recent seasons of Florida State and Wake Forest,
the term defensive battle wouldn’t have typically come to mind when
analyzing the head-to-head games between the teams. In fact, the last
three matchups have all shown totals in the 60s and have averaged
66.3. Even still, all three final scores came up at least 14 points short.
No matter how enticing an Over looks when this matchup comes
around, make these teams prove they can play that type of game.
TENNESSEE AT KENTUCKY
Trend: Tennessee is on an 8-1 ATS run at Kentucky
A year ago, Tennessee throttled Kentucky in their head-to-head game,
winning 44-6 in Knoxville. Many experts will look at this year’s game
as a chance for payback for the Wildcats and, as such, a dangerous
contest for head coach Josh Heupel’s Vols. That said, Tennessee has
played well in Lexington, winning eight of the last nine against the
number.
WEEK 10
Tuesday, October 31, 2023
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Trend: Central Michigan is on an 8-1 ATS run in this series, winning six
times outright as an underdog
I mentioned before that several Central Michigan head-to-head trends
would be worthy of your attention this season. Here is a good one for
Tuesday night MAC-tion bettors, as it finds the Chippewas a difficult foe
for NIU. The Huskies are most often favored in the rivalry, but it is CMU
that most often comes out on top, including six of the last nine times as
the underdog.
Saturday, November 4, 2023
HAWAII AT NEVADA
Trend: The last 10 games of the Hawaii-Nevada series have gone
Under the total
Hawaii and Nevada are two programs that very few college football
bettors equate with Unders on totals. However, when the teams have
gotten together over the last decade, every one of their head-to-head
matchups has gone Under. This is despite half of those games having
totals in the 60s. It should be noted that the losing teams in these games
have averaged just 16.4 points per game.
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO AT NORTH TEXAS
Trend: Home teams are on a 9-1 ATS surge in this rivalry
This is quite an interesting trend between in-state rivals, and if it
continues in 2023, the result could have a big impact on the American
Athletic Conference race, as UTSA is expected to be one of the
frontrunners. A North Texas win would likely be an upset at this point in
the season.
20
SMU AT RICE
Trend: Rice is on a 10-1 ATS run versus SMU, including covering the
last seven games
I have shared Rice as one of my favorite win total Over bets for the
season, and if the Owls are to be as improved as I have envisioned,
proving it in a game versus in-state rival SMU is a must. While these
teams haven’t met since 2012, when their regular annual series last left
off, at the time, Rice owned SMU.
SOUTH FLORIDA AT MEMPHIS
Trend: Road teams are 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine non-neutral USF-
Memphis matchups
South Florida is a team that I have felt has a chance to take a step
forward this season, as the program has struggled mightily in recent
years. For the Bulls to get better, they will need to compete in games
on the road against upper-level AAC teams like Memphis. Recent series
history suggests USF will do so in this contest.
KENTUCKY AT MISSISSIPPI ST
Trend: Home teams are on a 9-0 ATS streak in this series
This cross-divisional SEC rivalry game has been played every year
since 1990. It has been a series dominated by home teams. In fact, the
last road team to win outright in the series was MSU back in 2014. It’s
been 15 years since Kentucky won in Starkville. I don’t see a whole lot
of reasons things would change this fall.
BOISE STATE AT FRESNO STATE
Trend: Underdogs are on a 9-1 ATS run in Boise St-Fresno St rivalry
One of the fastest emerging rivalries in the Mountain West Conference,
Boise State and Fresno State have squared off multiple times in three of
the last six seasons, meaning they met both in the regular season and
in the league title game. This includes last year. Underdogs typically do
very well in this series, pulling outright upsets five times in the 10 games
of this trend.
OKLAHOMA AT OKLAHOMA ST
Trend: Oklahoma has gone 13-4-1 ATS versus Oklahoma State since
2005
The Bedlam Battle for bragging rights in the state of Oklahoma between
the Sooners and Cowboys has been pretty one-sided of late, with the
last OSU outright win coming in 2014. OU has scored 28 points or
more in every game since 2011, averaging 41.9 points per game.
WEEK 11
Tuesday, November 7, 2023
CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT WESTERN MICHIGAN
Trend: Road teams are on a 10-0-1 ATS streak in this rivalry
Yet another definitive Central Michigan head-to-head trend comes
into focus, and again it favors the Chippewas in the matchup. If these
patterns continue in ’23, perhaps CMU could be one of the surprise
teams of the MAC. Something to note, besides the 10-0-1 ATS record,
visitors are 9-2 outright in these games.
Friday, November 10, 2023
NORTH TEXAS AT SMU
Trend: Favorites have won the last nine SU and ATS in this series
SMU has appeared a few times on this head-to-head trend as well,
and it seems the trends always come in games against in-state rivals.
For the recent history against North Texas, favorites have dominated.
I would assume at this point that the Mustangs will be favored in this
mid-November Friday night contest, but you can’t be too sure till game
week arrives.
Saturday, November 11, 2023
TULSA AT TULANE
Trend: Favorites are on a 17-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry
Regarding success rates and R.O.I., this favorite trend in the Tulsa-
Tulane series is the season’s No. 1 head-to-head trend. Favorites have
absolutely dominated the head-to-head action, with the only underdog
victory of the set coming in Tulane’s 2014 home upset win. Keep in
mind none of the last 10 games had lines higher than 10.5 points, and
assuming things go as expected in 2023, Tulane should be a double-
digit home favorite in this year’s matchup.
MICHIGAN STATE AT OHIO STATE
Trend: Ohio State has won its last six ATS versus Michigan State
Anyone hoping that Ohio State gets tripped up in the weeks prior to
the big Michigan rivalry tilt should probably reconsider, as teams like
Rutgers, Minnesota, and perhaps most surprisingly, Michigan State
haven’t exactly challenged the Buckeyes. In fact, in the last six games,
all decided by 20 points or more, OSU has outscored the Spartans by
27.8 points per game.
BAYLOR AT KANSAS ST
Trend: Road teams are on a 7-0 ATS streak in this Big 12 rivalry
This game could prove to be a big one in terms of fringe contenders
for the 2023 Big 12 title game. If so, recent history suggests it will be
advantage Baylor, as road teams hold a 4-3 outright advantage in this
time span, with two of the losses coming by three points or fewer. The
last five games in Manhattan have also gone Under the total.
WEEK 12
Saturday, November 18, 2023
TEXAS AT IOWA STATE
Trend: The last eight games of this rivalry went Under the total
Sandwiched in between games at TCU and versus Texas Tech, this
contest at Iowa State immediately stands out as a potential landmine
game in Texas’ quest to play in the Big 12 title contest. The Longhorns
will need to score better than they have in recent head-to-head action,
as they have only averaged 17.5 points per game on ISU in the eight
games of this trend, including just 11.3 Points per game in Ames.
EAST CAROLINA AT NAVY
Trend: Navy is on a seven-game SU and ATS winning streak versus.
East Carolina
Considering that East Carolina has been at least as good, if not
better, than Navy in the years that this trend encompasses (since
2012), you’d have to think that it stems from the Navy system
presenting a bad matchup for the Pirates. Even last year, when ECU
hosted the Midshipmen as 16.5-point favorites, the latter came out on
top, 23-20.
WEEK 13
Thursday, November 23, 2023
OLE MISS AT MISSISSIPPI STATE
Trend: Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 games of the Egg Bowl
series
I believe there is something to the concept that the fiercest rivalries
bring out the most pride in teams’ defensive efforts. Neither defensive
unit wants to be embarrassed by the rival’s offense. Such is the case in
the Baltimore-Pittsburgh NFL series, and it is the case in the Egg Bowl
college football rivalry between Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Despite
lofty totals averaging 62.2, nine of the last 10 meetings have gone
Under.
21
Saturday, November 25, 2023
ALABAMA AT AUBURN
Trend: Home teams are on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run in the Iron Bowl rivalry
There are very few rivalries in college football that compare to the Iron
Bowl series between Alabama and Auburn. These teams and fan bases
hate each other, and every season’s annual game is a monumental
affair. Well, lately, playing at home in the contest has been quite
advantageous, with hosts on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run. Does Auburn
have what it takes to give Alabama a scare this season? Or even pull
an upset? Recent history suggests it will.
GEORGIA AT GEORGIA TECH
Trend: Georgia has won 12 straight ATS at Georgia Tech
Anyone hoping Georgia will trip up in its final game before a probable
SEC title game appearance should think again, as the Bulldogs own
rival Georgia Tech and still take the game seriously, despite the obvious
talent difference lately.
LOUISIANA-MONROE AT LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
Trend: Underdogs are 18-5 ATS in this rivalry since 2000
This is a bit of an underrated rivalry in college football. When road
teams and underdogs dominate series trends, the rivalry is probably
pretty fierce. Prior to last year’s ULM 21-17 home upset, road teams
were on an 18-1 ATS run. Obviously, that trend is still powerful.
WISCONSIN AT MINNESOTA
Trend: Underdogs are 12-4 ATS in the Paul Bunyan Axe rivalry series
since 2007
The Wisconsin-Minnesota border battle has been a fierce rivalry over
the years and has picked up intensity of late, as both teams seem
to be regularly in the running for the Big Ten West Division title. In
all likelihood, that will be the case once again in 2023. Expect the
underdog to put up an intense fight.
OHIO STATE AT MICHIGAN
Trend: The last nine games of this rivalry have gone Over the total
The enormity of the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry has grown in recent
years as the teams have added regular national title implications to the
already high stakes. The games of recent years have drawn even more
fans in as well as they have been offensively explosive contests, with
the last four producing 80.3 points per game. Nine straight Overs can
definitely enhance a rivalry’s appeal.
CALIFORNIA AT UCLA
Trend: Under the total is 9-0-1 in the last 10 games of this series
A lot of bettors make the mistake of believing that blowout games lead
to Overs since one team will score a bunch of points. The real truth is
that blowouts most often cause games to slow down, particularly in
rivalries, where leading teams just want to get the game over with their
players intact. In the current 9-0-1 Under trend of the California-UCLA
series, seven of the games have been decided by double-digits, and
again, despite lofty average totals posted, these games fail to reach
their offensive potential.
WEEK 15
Saturday, December 9, 2023
NAVY AT ARMY
Trend: Under the total is 16-1 in the last 17 games of this rivalry but
lost last year
This is the only trend I’ve posted in this article in which the most recent
game was a loser on the trend. Last year’s Army-Navy contest featured
a total of 32.5, easily the lowest in the modern-day era of the rivalry.
Army won the game 20-17, putting to rest a 16-game streak of Unders.
Does that mean we will start seeing a plethora of scoring in the series?
I doubt it.
 BUILDING
The measure of a good set of power ratings is to have more lines move
toward your numbers than move against them. Sometimes your line
will be wrong. Sometimes an injury slips through the cracks. Sometimes
bettors with a lot of market influence like the other side, and the line
will move in the other direction. Sometimes those bettors will be wrong.

A PO WER
Sometimes your power ratings will be wrong.

Starting with a good foundation is important because it can be a cat-

and-mouse game throughout the season. Let’s start with the foundation
and then move into how to adjust and adapt as the season goes along.

RATING
I do what I consider to be “Positional Power Ratings”. I use seven
positions to determine my rating for a team on a scale of basically 40-
100. The Georgias and Alabamas of the world will be closer to 100.
The FIUs and New Mexicos of the world will be closer to 40.
Why a 40-100 scale? I break my position groups down like this: QB,
OL, DL, and coaching/special teams are graded up to 15 (60 total

M ODEL
points). RB, WR, LB, and DB are graded up to 10 (40 total points).
Therefore, a perfect score would be 100.

by Adam Burke
For the last several seasons, I have put together college football power
ratings. In concert with my home-field advantage values, I use these
team ratings to create spreads for every game. That allows me to look
at season win total markets, but also to have an idea of where I think a
line should be in a given game throughout the season.
Power ratings can be as basic or detailed as you want them to be,
depending on how much time and effort you want to dedicate to the
process. My process is fairly basic, but my goal is to get ahead of
some line moves on Sunday and Monday by taking positions based
on my ratings for the teams. If I have a line -7 and the market has -4,
I anticipate that line to move towards my line as the week goes along,
which gives me some incentive to grab -4.
The position units for the top teams will be closer to the highest possible
number, while the best players in Group of Five schools might lead to a
rating 2-3 points away from the highest possible number. Mid-tier teams
in Power Five conferences would have position groups graded similarly
to the best of the best in the Group of Five.
The goal is to look at the rosters, the returning production, and the
offensive and defensive schemes to develop these values. On an Air
Raid team, the running backs won’t be as productive and probably
won’t be a position of emphasis in recruiting. But a QB and a WR
group are going to be weighted differently.
Are these an exact science and 100% accurate? Absolutely not. But,
they give me a starting point for the season and something to go off
as the season goes along so that I’m not blindly saying things like “this
line looks too low” or “that line is too high” without having it based on
anything other than opinion or conjecture.
So, let’s take the two-time reigning National Champion Georgia
Bulldogs, the highest-rated team for me going into the season.

NSE
OFFE WIDE RECEIVER: 9.5/10
Brock Bowers might be the best tight end in football
(TE are included here), and Ladd McConkey, when
healthy, has been a reliable option. There are a
bunch of highly-touted recruits here, plus Oscar Delp,
who was the No. 1 TE in the class of 2022.
OFFENSIVE LINE: 15/15
Georgia allowed nine total sacks last season, with
those 5.5 yards per carry and over seven yards per
play. It all starts with the guys up front. Three starters
are back, with new starters at the tackle position,
but again, these are four and five-star recruits.
Remember, a lot of elite programs also have a lot of
elite position coaches and awesome recruiters.

O O OOOOOO
O
QUARTERBACK: 13.5/15
Replacing Stetson Bennett will not be
easy as Georgia looks for a three-
peat. However, a program like this
will recruit at a very high level. The
contenders for the job, including last
RUNNING BACK: 9.5/10 season’s backup Carson Beck, are

O O
The Bulldogs don’t have a feature going to be four and five-star guys.
back but have a committee full of Beck, for instance, was a four-star kid
talented rushers. Kendall Milton in the class of 2020. Brock Vandagriff
and Daijun Edwards combined was a four-star in 2021, while Gunner
for over 1,350 yards last season, Stockton was a four-star in 2022.
and Georgia ran for 5.5 yards per Even though experience is low and
carry as a team, so this should be returning production is basically non-
a very productive group again. existent, there’s a ton of talent here,
and one of them should emerge.
 NSE
DEFE DEFENSIVE LINE: 15/15
If there’s anything we know about the
Georgia defense, it will reload annually.
The Bulldogs have allowed under 80 rushing
yards per game in each of the last four
seasons. They’ve allowed under five yards
per play in each of the last six—just elite.

XX XXXX
DEFENSIVE BACKS: 9.5/10
Another terrific position group. I
don’t really give any team a 100
grade coming into the season
X X X LINEBACKERS: 9.5/10
because there is always turnover,
even for the best teams. So, little Maybe this should be a 10/10,
moderations to the scores can especially with all the special stats
oftentimes come in the form of this defense puts up year-to-year,
the “lesser” position groups in but Nolan Smith and Robert

X X
importance. Beal are notable losses. Smael
Mondon and Jamon Dumas-
Johnson are great players, but
Georgia does rotate a lot of guys
in by leading by a ton more often
than not.

TOTAL
COACHING/SPECIAL TEAMS: 15/15
Georgia is 29-1 over the last two seasons. There are other
talented teams around the country, but few maximize
their potential like the Bulldogs. Kirby Smart is one of the
nation’s elites, and his coordinators and position coaches
are quite good as well. This is also a perennial Top 25
team in special teams, which makes sense when the guys
on those units are also four and five-star kids just waiting
for the chance to be an every-down player.

96.5/100
Some nitpicking here and there, but this is the No. 1 team in the country
for me. If Beck, Vandagriff, or Stockton can take the bull by the horns
and make the offense hum, I’ll quickly adjust them up. We won’t find out
for a little while because of the schedule, but until proven otherwise, this
is the nation’s best team.
The science of maintaining a good set of Power Ratings throughout the
season is where the difficult part comes in. My process of updating them
has three steps, and teams will move up or down based on three criteria
- the closing spread, the box score, and injuries. That is something I’ll do
throughout the season on the VSiN website.

By comparison, UTSA is my top Group of Five team at 72.5, which is
equal to UCF and right around teams like Tulane and Louisville.
The difference between teams is the line on a neutral field, and then I
apply my home-field advantage values to make the spread.
For now, focus on putting together a good set of initial ratings, and you
can even cross-check and confirm with the lines that are already out
there to make sure you have a good foundation.

23
H
A
N
D H
I E
C I
A S
P THE M
P A
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N
G 24 by Zachary Cohen
Dating back to the year 2000, 19 of the 23 players that have won the Heisman Trophy were quarterbacks. That’s impossible to ignore when
betting on this market. USC quarterback Caleb Williams won the award last year.

Williams is a heavy favorite to win the Heisman in back-to-back years, as the Trojans superstar is listed at +600 to get the job done. The next
closest players are Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis and LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels. In fact, the
first 11 players listed in the Heisman Trophy market this year are quarterbacks. That should give you an idea of how hard it is to win if you’re
not throwing passes.

It does, however, need to be noted that it’s not impossible for a skill position player to win. This isn’t quite like the NFL MVP race, and wide
receiver DeVonta Smith, who now catches passes for the Philadelphia Eagles, gave wide receivers and running backs hope by taking home the
award with the Alabama Crimson Tide in 2020. That season, Smith caught 117 passes for 1,857 yards and 23 touchdowns, pacing an Alabama
team that won the College Football Playoff.

With that out of the way, let’s run through some of the best betting options. I’d personally suggest prioritizing elite quarterbacks as your
biggest Heisman bets. But I’ll also give you some non-quarterback options I like, as well as some dark horses that could pay off in a big way.

BEST CHALK OPTION

QB JORDAN TRAVIS (+1400), FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES
Travis is one of the most electric dual-threat quarterbacks in college football, and he is pretty easily my favorite Heisman bet this year. Last season,
Travis threw for 3,214 yards with 24 touchdowns and only five interceptions for Florida State. He also rushed for 417 yards with seven touchdowns,
marking the third year in a row that he reached the seven-touchdown mark in the running game.

Travis used to be known as a runner mostly, but he has really made strides as a passer. His completion percentage was 64.0% last year, way higher
than the 55.0% he posted in 2020. I’d expect Travis to continue to grow as a thrower this year, as he is more comfortable than ever in this offense.
That should result in some monstrous numbers from the West Palm Beach native. Travis should have a lot more time to throw this season, as Florida
State’s O-line is no longer a glaring weakness.

With Travis a near-lock to put up great numbers this season, to have a real case for the Heisman, he needs a big year from Florida State. And that
is already expected this year, with the Seminoles having a regular season win total of 10. Florida State is also just behind Clemson’s odds to win the
ACC this year. They are also tied for the seventh-best odds to win a national title. If the Seminoles come close to achieving any of those goals, Travis’
fingerprints will be all over it.

Another thing to like about Travis is that he’s a “Heisman moment” waiting to happen. He broke a 71-yard run against the NC State Wolfpack last
year, and he should add to his highlight reel in 2023. Travis will need to find a way to make plays in the biggest games, and I think he’ll do so. It
doesn’t hurt that he’ll play in an offense that returns most of its key starters this year.

BEST VALUE PLAY

QB DILLON GABRIEL (+3500), OKLAHOMA SOONERS
Gabriel was a popular sleeper pick to win the Heisman Trophy last year, but his first season in Oklahoma didn’t quite go as planned. The Sooners
went only 6-7 on the season, and the year ended in a 35-32 loss to Florida State in the Cheez-It Bowl. For Oklahoma’s standards, it was an
unacceptable year. But the Sooners should be much better in Year 2 under Brent Venables. The former long-time Clemson defensive coordinator did
good work in the transfer portal, and this team returns a good amount of last year’s production. Now, Oklahoma has the second-best odds to win
the Big 12.

Last year, Gabriel really wasn’t to blame for all of Oklahoma’s troubles. In fact, the lefty gunslinger threw for 3,168 yards with 25 touchdowns and
only six picks in his first year in offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby’s offense. Gabriel should be a lot better with a full year in this system under his belt.
At the University of Central Florida, the talented signal caller improved drastically from freshman to sophomore year. So, he has proven that he can
make a year-over-year leap.

If Gabriel gets back to posting the kind of numbers he did with UCF while continuing to utilize his legs a bit more, I expect him to be in the
conversation for this award. Oklahoma will just need to find a way to win 10 or so games. The team’s regular season win total is currently 9.5, so
that isn’t exactly out of the question.

25
NON-QBS
RB BLAKE CORUM (+2800), MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
Corum suffered a season-ending knee injury in Michigan’s win over the Ohio State Buckeyes last December, forcing him out of action for the College
Football Playoff. But Corum’s recovery is apparently going very well, with the star running back telling The 33rd Team that he’s “full-go” back in
June. If Corum really is close to 100%, he’s one of the few non-quarterbacks that has a legitimate shot at winning the Heisman Trophy.

Corum rushed for 1,463 yards with 18 touchdowns on 247 carries last season while also chipping in 11 catches for 80 yards and a score as a pass
catcher. Corum was the engine behind this Michigan offense, which averaged more points per game (40.4) than all but five teams last season.
This year, Corum will again be a bell cow in this offense, which still lacks a consistently explosive passing game. The latter is rather important in
the context of winning a Heisman, as Corum will likely be credited with any success the Wolverines have offensively — barring an insane leap from
quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

Michigan’s regular season win total is up at 10.5 this season, with the Wolverines also listed as the second-most likely team to win the Big Ten this year.
If Michigan accomplishes all its goals as a team and Corum once again paces the offense, he should give the elite quarterbacks a run for their money.

RB BRAELON ALLEN (+6000), WISCONSIN BADGERS

It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that we’re going from one Big Ten running back to another here. This is one of the few conferences in which
many of the elite programs still possess run-first offenses. And make no mistake about it: Wisconsin will still emphasize the run, even with Phil Longo
implementing his version of the Air Raid offense in his first year with the program.

When Luke Fickell took the head coaching job for Wisconsin, he wanted to bring in a coordinator that could open things up and get more out of
the passing game. That’s why Longo is now in Madison. But Fickell knows that he can’t just abandon the program’s bread and butter. He has a very
good offensive line in place, and Allen is one of the best running backs in the country. Why would he go away from that?

I think an improved passing game will do wonders for Allen, who rushed for 1,242 yards with 11 touchdowns last season. Defenses used to be able
to load up the box against Wisconsin, so Allen was often being met behind the line of scrimmage or just having very little room to work with. But
with Tanner Mordecai now playing quarterback for the Badgers, with a good group of pass catchers, opponents can’t focus all their attention on
Allen. That means that Allen should turn in a career year for Wisconsin, which looks like a legitimate sleeper to win the Big Ten this season.

The Badgers are arguably the best team in the Big Ten West, and they’r the betting favorites to win the division this season. But with Fickell around,
Wisconsin hopes to compete with the big boys. If the Badgers can find a way to do it, I wouldn’t rule out Allen making his mark on the Heisman race.

DARK HORSES & DART THROWS

QB JALEN MILROE (+6000) & TY SIMPSON (+6000), ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
Currently, it’s unclear who will emerge as the starting quarterback for Nick Saban’s team. As far as betting goes, it might make sense to put a little
something down on Milroe and Simpson. Both are going off at +6000 odds. Milroe’s experience should give him a leg up in the competition, but
there’s some buzz that Simpson will get the nod.

The Crimson Tide have had a top-five passing offense in each of the past five years, and things likely won’t be slowing down with Tommy Rees now
entrenched as the program’s offensive coordinator. Rees is viewed as a brilliant offensive mind, so being the quarterback in his offense should result
in tremendous numbers. It doesn’t hurt that either one will be surrounded by elite talent all over the field.

Milroe showcased his dual-threat ability in a start against the Texas A&M Aggies last year. That was the only start of his college career, and Milroe
threw for three touchdowns and one pick while also adding 81 rushing yards in that game. He broke one run for 33 yards in that one, which shows his
big-play ability with his legs. The week before, Milroe had a 77-yard run against the Arkansas Razorbacks in relief of an injured Bryce Young. Simpson
has some of that same dual-threat magic, but he isn’t quite as electric with his legs. However, he might be a touch more accurate as a passer.

Alabama will obviously play a very tough SEC schedule this season, but the team should find a way to navigate it and flirt with a College Football
Playoff berth. That should mean that whoever claims this job will be in the Heisman picture.

QB D.J. UIAGALELEI (+9000), OREGON STATE BEAVERS

Uiagalelei was once considered a contender to win this award for the Clemson Tigers, but things never quite clicked. Uiagalelei struggled with his
passing efficiency, and the Tigers were forced to go in another direction. Rather than choosing a flashier option in the transfer market, Uiagalelei
decided to continue his playing career in Corvallis. All things considered, I loved the move for the former five-star recruit. Jonathan Smith is an elite
head coach that played the quarterback position and has a great offensive mind. If anybody can get everything out of Uiagalelei, it’s Smith and a
low-pressure Oregon State environment.

The Beavers were a very good football team in 2022, going 10-3 on the season. Oregon State now returns a significant number of starters on the
offensive side of the ball, which gives Uigalelei a lot of talent to work with. He will also be facing Pac-12 competition, which should allow him to post
some big numbers as both a runner and a passer.

For as bad as Uiagalelei’s 2022 season might have seemed, he did throw for 2,521 yards with 22 touchdowns and only seven picks. He also added
545 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. I wouldn’t be surprised if he improves those numbers, facing a much easier schedule. And I like Oregon
State’s chances of emerging from a wide-open Pac-12. That would put Uiagalelei on the national radar.

26
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27
STRATEGIES
FOR USING THE
DRAFTKINGS
BETTING
SPLITS ON
VSIN.COM
by Steve Makinen
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a
feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, are
the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages we have built utilizing
the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing
the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads,
moneylines, and totals.
Why is this Betting Splits information so valuable? Well, most
specifically, it lets us see which games are the most publicly supported
each week. Let’s face it, we all know the “betting public” does not win
over the long haul, and with the amount of money DraftKings spends on
acquiring customers, you have to assume that most of the bettors that
play there would be considered “public.” In other words, the collective
opinions of this group of recreational bettors are right out on display
for all of us to analyze and use to our advantage.
With more states regulating sports betting each passing year, this
information is more valuable than ever. In the “old days,” offshore
sportsbooks would share this type of information, but bettors had no
way of knowing the type or volume of clientele these groups were
taking on. Let’s just say it made the betting percentage data offered
by these places convoluted. With the DraftKings data, we know their
customer strength is in numbers, and that is exactly what we are looking
for with this type of analysis.
With that said, the fact that DraftKings shares this data with VSiN, and
we proudly break it all down and display it, should be a godsend to
bettors. While no analysis or system of betting is ever perfect, using this
information in the ways I share below can be a good start or finish to
your handicapping routine.
Before digging into some of the system data I was able to uncover during
the 2022 college football season, I should start you off with two common
betting generalities for recreational players that wager at
28
places like DraftKings. That is, the
majority bets favorites on the point spread and Overs on
totals. The numbers are almost staggering. According to the final ticket/
handle numbers so far this season, wagers have been on favorites in more
than 80% of games and on totals to go Over in about 75% of games.
Naturally, with favorite/underdog and Over/Under results designed to
be split, this leaves a lot of opportunity for books like DraftKings to win.
To be clear, I’m not advising to just automatically bet all underdogs and
Unders on totals, as that wouldn’t be fun nor profitable, but I’m telling
you that in most cases, you would be going “against the public,” giving
yourself at least a reasonable chance to profit long term.
About 2/3 of the way through the 2022 season, I ran a study collecting
the Betting Splits data and analyzing it against actual results of FBS
games. You will see that I basically tried to analyze the records of the
“majority bettors” at DraftKings and the side/total they preferred for
games. I also broke it down further, sometimes by the percentage of
the majority. There are two fields of analysis for each wagering option
that DraftKings shares the data for both sides and totals: 1) Handle
2) Number of Bets. These can produce varied results, but in general,
I would subscribe to the theory that the total handle is a little less
“public” than the total number of bets.
At the time, these were the overall records of the majority bettors for
the 2022 college football season using the key terms “Handle” and
“Number of Bets.”
 • Majority Handle on point spreads: 171-191 ATS (47.3%)
• Majority Number of Bets on point spreads: 173-191 ATS (47.5%)
• Majority Handle on totals: 190-173 (52.3%)
• Majority Number of Bets on totals: 174-186 (48.3%)
As you can see, in three of the four categories, the majority are seeing
noteworthy losses. On top of that, I also found that as the season wore
on, the majority was getting worse and worse in backing the right
plays. These were some key records in the second half of the season
data I analyzed:
• Majority Handle on point spreads: 96-122 ATS (44%)
• Majority Number of Bets on point spreads: 96-123 ATS (43.8%)
• Majority Number of Bets on totals: 99-117 (45.8%)
As you can see, by simply fading the majority figures on the Betting
Splits pages for college football for Handle and Number of Bets on
point spreads, you would be slightly profitable or at least break even
for the season and highly profitable over the latter season games. It’s a
little more complicated for totals, as the majority handle actually has a
winning record thus far. This information gave me a good starting point
for developing 13 different systems I recommend putting to use to take
advantage of the DraftKings Betting Splits Resource on VSiN.com. Try
these yourself this season and build your bankroll.
13 SYSTEMS USING
DRAFTKINGS BETTING SPLITS
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #1
When 80% or more of the Handle was on a particular side of an ATS
wager, this majority group was just 18-32 ATS (36%). In other words,
if you saw the big green lights on the VSiN Betting Splits Handle page
80% or higher, it was best to fade it.
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #2
When 75%+ of the Number of Bets were on a particular side of an ATS
wager, this majority group was just 38-59 ATS (39.2%). Again, if you
see the big green lights on the VSiN Betting Splits Number of Bets page
75% or higher, it was best to fade it.
It’s obvious you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of
DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #3
When the majority of the Handle was on road favorites for an
ATS wager, this majority group was just 42-60 ATS (41.1%). More
recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the
better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #4
When the majority of the Handle was on home underdogs for an ATS
wager, this majority group was 34-26 ATS (56.7%). Now, 56.7% is less
than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is an advantage
of almost 10% against the usual majority win rates, and it goes to show
that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off.
Remember, a higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.
The Number of Bets results weren’t quite as definitive, but the majority
did still struggle at backing road favorites (44.5%), and they did
reasonably well (55.3%) when getting behind road dogs.
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #5
When the majority of the Handle backed the team with more season
wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, this majority group
was just 60-79 ATS (43.2%). More than not, bettors like to back the
“better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread
indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer.
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #6
When the majority of the Number of Bets backed the team with more
season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, this majority
29
group was just 69-90 ATS (43.3%). Following more bet tickets on a
better won-lost team was also not a winning strategy.
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #7
On games that had totals of 60 or higher, the majority Handle bettors
were relatively sharp, going 58-44 (56.9%), choosing over 2/3 of the
time to go Over. However, both sides of the totals won at similar rates.
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #8
On games with totals of 45 or lower, the majority Handle bettors siding
with the Under were 10-3 (76.9%). Because not many public bettors
embrace betting Unders, this hadn’t produced a lot of plays, but the
money handle majority had been sharp.
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #9
On games with totals of 45 or lower, the majority Number of Bets
bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over had gone 10-18
(35.7%). Again, not a ton of plays here, but the more public option of
Number of Bets had been wrong most often.
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #10
On games where the Handle has a majority on totals and the Number
of Bets has the opposite majority, the majority Handle plays had gone
57-41 (58.2%). This could be described as more sharp action being
displayed by the majority Handle.
These last few systems took into account how lines had moved
throughout the week as a result of the betting action for either handle
or number of bets:
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #11
When the majority of the Handle was on a home team but the opening
line moved towards the road team, the majority side was 51-18 SU and
39-29-1 ATS (57.3%), assumingly a bit of a trap set by DraftKings to
entice more action on the road team.
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #12
When the majority of the Handle was on a road team but the opening
line moved towards the home team, the majority side was just 20-28
ATS (41.7%), the opposite success level of system #11. This seemed
random to me, so tread lightly if you choose to utilize the angle this
season.
DK BETTING SPLITS SYSTEM #13
When the majority Number of Bets had been on a total going Over but
the opening total moved downward, this had shown to be another trap
situation, with the majority just 74-95 (44%) at the time.
The Betting Splits on VSiN.com are essentially running live and will
change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of
these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest
numbers. In the spirit of continuous improvement, we have redesigned
and expanded the VSiN betting splits page, the most popular
destination on VSiN.com.
The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook, is now
updated every five minutes instead of 10. We ping the DraftKings
database and see what data has changed and then indicate the
change with an arrow next to the percentage.
Another handy new feature is that you can sort the college football
splits by Top 25 games and conference. (Use the down-down tab.)
Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on
the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice new
touch is that, if the game is over, you will get a summary that includes
the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team,
and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated
score was.
Unlimited access to betting splits is available to VSiN Pro subscribers.
DEFINING COLLEGE
FOOTBALL HOME-FIELD
ADVANTAGE
by Adam Burke

Home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be in college football. By the time the players enroll in college, a lot of them are used to playing games
in different places. It also doesn’t take too many road trips for the players to get accustomed to being road warriors. With big budgets and big
booster bucks, the conveniences of modern travel are afforded to most, if not all, teams around the country.

Heck, by this point, many players have moved from one college or university to the next because of the transfer portal, so it isn’t like shuffling
around towns is a foreign concept. But fans are still in the stands, and some environments will always be more daunting than others.

I wrote in the 2022 VSiN College Football Betting Guide that determining home-field advantage was an inexact science. This may shock you, but it
isn’t any different a season later. I do think that we can all agree that slapping a standard-issue three points on the home team side is outdated, so
I’m using a baseline of two points again this season. Who knows, that may even go down for future seasons, but there is still something to sleeping
in a hotel and having thousands of screaming fans rooting for your failure.

In my quest to find something that wasn’t random or arbitrary, I decided a couple of seasons ago to look at a team’s combined straight-up (SU)
and against-the-spread (ATS) record at home over a five-year sample size and use that win percentage to place teams into “buckets” to determine
whether or not their home performance warrants a home-field advantage above or below two points.

Based on that calculation (using the SU + ATS home records from Phil Steele’s magazine since they were conveniently displayed), I found 51 teams
with an HFA value higher than two points and 13 with an HFA value lower than two points. There are 133 FBS teams this season, with Jacksonville
State and Sam Houston State added to the mix, so just shy of 50% of the Division I FBS teams fit the criteria to be higher or lower.

Here are those teams for the 2023 season:

3.5 POINTS
(SU + ATS Win % of
3 POINTS
70% or higher)
(65-69.99%) 2.5 POINTS
Alabama (60-64.99%) 1.5 POINTS
Air Force
Cincinnati (35.01-39.99%)
Clemson
Appalachian State Auburn 1 POINT
Army BYU (35% or Lower)
Georgia Bowling Green
Baylor Florida Atlantic
James Madison Kansas
Boise State Fresno State Akron
Louisiana Northern Illinois
Buffalo Iowa Georgia Tech
Memphis Northwestern
Georgia Southern Iowa State New Mexico
Michigan Old Dominion
Kentucky Kansas State UMass
Notre Dame Rutgers
Liberty Kent State Vanderbilt
Ohio State South Florida
LSU Louisiana Tech
Oklahoma Stanford
Miami (OH) Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma State
NC State Minnesota
Oregon
SMU Missouri
UAB
Texas A&M Oregon State
UCF
Tulane Penn State
Utah
Virginia Utah State *Note* Any
Wake Forest team between
Washington State 40-59.99% has a
West Virginia standard HFA of
Wyoming 2 points.

30
Is this a perfect system? Absolutely not. Is it better than just doing guesswork or something baseless? I’d like to think so.

There will be exceptions to any HFA opinion, like a Penn State White-Out or Death Valley (either one—LSU or Clemson) at night. A night game in a
football-crazed venue carries a lot more weight than a sleepy 11 a.m. or noon local kickoff where tailgating couldn’t be done the way it should. I
consider those things part of my handicap rather than having random situations that may shift HFA a half-point or a point because of the scheduling.

Is five years too many? Well, the COVID-shortened 2020 season and the wide distribution in terms of number of games played is still a factor.
Perhaps next season, I can switch to a three-year sample size, which may be more accurate given the transfer portal and the coaching carousel, but
a three-year sample size right now would still include teams like Old Dominion that didn’t even play the 2020 season or a team that couldn’t play at
home because of local COVID restrictions.

I do think it probably is too long, as that means a full-fledged roster turnover by recruiting class and a whole lot of coaching movement. Your view
may vary on how to calculate home-field advantage, and if you have a system that you trust and believe in, I’d love to hear about it. But this is
at least a starting point and based on something tangible. That’s good enough for me, but I’ll always think about ways to perfect it and consider
different ways of looking at it.

Beaver Stadium
University Park, PA
COLLEGE
FOOTBALL
STABILITY
SCORES
FOR 2023
by Steve Makinen
Since the opening of the 2017 football season, my first with VSiN,
I have been sharing with subscribers my methodology on College
Football Stability. I offer the analysis at the beginning of every season
and, to be exact, for the first four weeks of every season. It is one of
the foremost strategies I employ every year to find value early. The
thought behind it is that teams that are in more stable year-to-year
situations are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot
of change in the offseason should be faded. The logic is fundamentally
sound. Returning fewer starters, starting over at quarterback, and
welcoming in new head coaches or coordinators are always hurdles to
get over for teams. Eventually, the teams may overcome these hurdles,
but the general thought is that it doesn’t happen early, and oddsmakers
don’t account for these factors enough in building their lines.
Having worked with people on both sides of the betting window for
many years, I have found that the amount of preseason preparation
that people take on can vary greatly from book to book, from bettor
to bettor. Because of this, there can be huge misses by those setting the
numbers. Doing homework early has become one of the most important
aspects for college football bettors hoping to enjoy a successful
campaign. Those bettors that scour the various betting publications,
such as the VSiN College Football Betting Guide, before the season
tend to be best prepared once Week 1 rolls around. Other resources
I am certain to take in each spring are the Phil Steele annual pub and
the work of Brad Powers, who makes regular VSiN appearances as a
college football expert.
There are many reasons why things can change dramatically from
one season to the next in college football, among them the four-year
eligibility rules, the pressure now placed on coaching staffs at every
level program, the ever-growing transfer portal, and of course, player
transgressions off the field. The result is that there is always turnover
from year to year, both on the field and on the sidelines. Bettors
expecting to see the same thing they watched from a team at the end of
the prior season can often be startled by the change.
Being a numbers guy and always looking for quantitative advantages
in betting, I like to conduct an exercise that quantifies the level of
stability for each program. I figure that the higher level of stability, the
better the chances for success for any team, particularly early in the
32
season. Naturally, putting a numerical grade to it makes it easier to
spot this stability. Again, the point spread considered, the feeling is that
oddsmakers don’t adjust enough for the “instability.”
Over the last 11 years or so, I have implemented an early season
strategy that employs backing the teams with the greatest stability
ratings in matchups against those in the most unstable situations. I can
tell you that in those 11 years, I have never experienced a losing record
by playing the games on the lists for the four weeks of the season. The
degree of success has varied during that span, but in all 11 years, I
have closed with a profit, including last year, when the plays I shared
went 27-20 ATS (57.4%). That is a typical year for this system and
had a bettor been playing $100 wagers on each game, they would
have profited $480. Of course, these numbers can be improved by
factoring in other successful handicapping strategies or by more closely
examining the individual factors of instability, but as a stand-alone
strategy, the success level is tough to beat.
Just below, I’ve put together a chart of the College Football Stability
Scores for 2023. When the season arrives, I will put together lists in
each of the first four weeks detailing the top mismatches. I have found
that a Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum on which I will
consider a play for this thought process. (UCF hosting Kent State on
Thursday, August 31, shows the first playable game with a difference of
14).
Here are the basics for determining each team’s Total Stability Score.
Essentially, the score is determined from five different stabilizing
factors, Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, Defensive Coordinator,
Quarterback, and Overall Returning Starters. Here is how the scores
are determined:
RETURNING HEAD COACH POINTS
Yes, same Head Coach as 2022: 4 points
No, new Head Coach for 2023: 0 points
RETURNING OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR POINTS
Yes, same Offensive Coordinator as 2022: 3 points
No, new Offensive Coordinator for 2023: 0 points
RETURNING DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR POINTS
Yes, same Defensive Coordinator as 2022: 3 points
No, new Defensive Coordinator for 2023: 0 points
RETURNING STARTING QUARTERBACK POINTS
Yes, same Starting Quarterback as 2022: 4 points
No, new Starting Quarterback for 2023: 0 points
Very important…I consider a transfer quarterback expected to start for
his team as a new quarterback, regardless of the starting experience
level he brings to the table. For 2023, numerous recognizable QBs
have found new starting homes nationwide. For instance, Sam Hartman
at Notre Dame boasts a wealth of college football experience with
Wake Forest. While he is not your typical first-year quarterback for the
Irish, he is new to that program and its system.
TOTAL NUMBER OF RETURNING STARTERS POINTS
0-7 returning offensive & defensive starters: 0 points
8-9: 1 point
10-12: 2 points
13-16: 3 points
17-19: 4 points
20-22: 5 points
As you analyze the charts on the next three pages of the 133 FBS
teams, you’ll see that there are again teams this season in both very
stable and very unsettling situations, more of a return to normal with the
super senior rule that was offered before 2021 winding down. Many
teams over the last couple of years brought back fifth-year seniors.
 2022 CHANGE? (0-YES) RET TOTAL
TEAM (CONFERENCE) RECORD HC? OC? DC? QB? STRS STABILITY
AIR FORCE (MTN WEST) 10-3 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13
AKRON (MAC) 2-10 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14
ALABAMA (SEC) 11-2 4 0 0 0 2 (10) 6
APPALACHIAN ST (SBC) 6-6 4 0 0 0 2 (11) 6
ARIZONA (PAC 12) 5-7 4 3 3 4 2 (11) 16
ARIZONA ST (PAC 12) 3-9 0 0 0 0 2 (12) 2
ARKANSAS (SEC) 7-6 4 0 0 4 2 (10) 10
ARKANSAS ST (SBC) 3-9 4 0 3 0 2 (11) 9
ARMY (IND) 6-6 4 0 3 0 4 (17) 11
AUBURN (SEC) 5-7 0 0 0 4 4 (17) 8
BALL ST (MAC) 6-6 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13
BAYLOR (BIG 12) 6-7 4 3 0 4 2 (12) 13
BOISE ST (MTN WEST) 10-4 4 0 3 4 3 (14) 14
BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC) 3-9 4 0 0 0 3 (15) 7
BOWLING GREEN (MAC) 6-7 4 0 0 0 2 (12) 6
BUFFALO (MAC) 7-6 4 0 0 4 2 (10) 10
BYU (B12) 8-5 4 3 0 0 3 (14) 10
C MICHIGAN (MAC) 4-8 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13
CALIFORNIA (PAC 12) 4-8 4 0 3 0 4 (17) 11
CHARLOTTE (AAC) 3-9 0 0 0 0 2 (10) 2
CINCINNATI (B12) 9-4 0 0 0 0 1 (8) 1
CLEMSON (ACC) 11-3 4 0 3 0 3 (15) 10
COASTAL CAROLINA (SBC) 9-4 0 0 0 4 3 (14) 7
COLORADO (PAC 12) 1-11 0 0 0 0 1 (8) 1
COLORADO ST (MTN WEST) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17
CONNECTICUT (IND) 6-7 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18
DUKE (ACC) 9-4 4 3 0 4 4 (18) 15
E MICHIGAN (MAC) 9-4 4 3 0 0 2 (11) 9
EAST CAROLINA (AAC) 8-5 4 3 3 0 2 (10) 12
FLA ATLANTIC (AAC) 5-7 0 0 0 0 4 (17) 4
FLA INTERNATIONAL (CUSA) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16
FLORIDA (SEC) 6-7 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12
FLORIDA ST (ACC) 10-3 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18
FRESNO ST (MTN WEST) 10-4 4 0 3 0 2 (11) 9
GA SOUTHERN (SBC) 6-7 4 3 0 0 2 (12) 9
GEORGIA (SEC) 15-0 4 0 3 0 3 (13) 10
GEORGIA ST (SBC) 4-8 4 3 0 4 2 (12) 13
GEORGIA TECH (ACC) 5-7 4 0 3 0 2 (12) 9
HAWAII (MTN WEST) 3-10 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17
HOUSTON (B12) 8-5 4 0 3 0 2 (12) 9
ILLINOIS (BIG TEN) 8-5 4 3 0 0 2 (12) 9
INDIANA (BIG TEN) 4-8 4 3 3 0 1 (8) 11
IOWA (BIG TEN) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17
IOWA ST (BIG 12) 4-8 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14
JACKSONVILLE ST (CUSA) 9-2 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17

33
 2022 CHANGE? (0-YES) RET TOTAL
TEAM (CONFERENCE) RECORD HC? OC? DC? QB? STRS STABILITY
JAMES MADISON (SBC) 8-3 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13
KANSAS (BIG 12) 6-7 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18
KANSAS ST (BIG 12) 10-4 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17
KENT ST (MAC) 5-7 0 0 0 0 0 (4) 0
KENTUCKY (SEC) 7-6 4 0 3 0 3 (14) 10
LA LAFAYETTE (SBC) 6-7 4 3 3 4 1 (9) 15
LA MONROE (SBC) 4-8 4 3 3 0 2 (10) 12
LIBERTY (CUSA) 8-5 0 0 3 4 1 (8) 8
LOUISIANA TECH (CUSA) 3-9 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12
LOUISVILLE (ACC) 8-5 0 0 0 0 2 (12) 2
LSU (SEC) 10-4 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17
MARSHALL (SBC) 9-4 4 3 0 4 2 (11) 13
MARYLAND (BIG TEN) 8-5 4 0 3 4 2 (11) 13
MASSACHUSETTS (IND) 1-11 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17
MEMPHIS (AAC) 7-6 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16
MIAMI FL (ACC) 5-7 4 0 0 4 4 (19) 12
MIAMI OHIO (MAC) 6-7 4 0 3 4 3 (16) 14
MICHIGAN (BIG TEN) 13-1 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17
MICHIGAN ST (BIG TEN) 5-7 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13
MIDDLE TENN ST (CUSA) 8-5 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13
MINNESOTA (BIG TEN) 9-4 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17
MISSISSIPPI ST (SEC) 9-4 0 0 0 4 2 (12) 6
MISSOURI (SEC) 6-7 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14
N ILLINOIS (MAC) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17
NAVY (AAC) 4-8 0 0 0 4 4 (17) 8
NC STATE (ACC) 8-5 4 0 3 0 2 (11) 9
NEBRASKA (BIG TEN) 4-8 0 0 0 0 3 (15) 3
NEVADA (MTN WEST) 2-10 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13
NEW MEXICO (MTN WEST) 2-10 4 0 0 0 1 (9) 5
NEW MEXICO ST (CUSA) 7-6 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17
NORTH CAROLINA (ACC) 9-5 4 0 3 4 4 (17) 15
NORTH TEXAS (AAC) 7-7 0 0 0 0 3 (15) 3
NORTHWESTERN (BIG TEN) 1-11 0 3 0 4 2 (12) 9
NOTRE DAME (IND) 9-4 4 0 3 0 3 (13) 10
OHIO ST (BIG TEN) 11-2 4 0 3 0 3 (14) 10
OHIO U (MAC) 10-4 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17
OKLAHOMA (BIG 12) 6-7 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17
OKLAHOMA ST (BIG 12) 7-6 4 3 0 0 3 (13) 10
OLD DOMINION (SBC) 3-9 4 0 3 0 0 (7) 7
OLE MISS (SEC) 8-5 4 3 0 4 3 (16) 14
OREGON (PAC 12) 10-3 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17
OREGON ST (PAC 12) 10-3 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17
PENN ST (BIG TEN) 11-2 4 3 3 0 3 (16) 13
PITTSBURGH (ACC) 9-4 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12
PURDUE (BIG TEN) 8-6 0 0 0 0 2 (11) 2

34
 2022 CHANGE? (0-YES) RET TOTAL
TEAM (CONFERENCE) RECORD HC? OC? DC? QB? STRS STABILITY
RICE (AAC) 5-8 4 3 3 0 3 (14) 13
RUTGERS (BIG TEN) 4-8 4 0 3 4 3 (14) 14
S ALABAMA (SBC) 10-3 4 3 3 4 4 (18) 18
SAM HOUSTON ST (CUSA) 5-4 4 0 3 4 3 (16) 14
SAN DIEGO ST (MTN WEST) 7-6 4 0 3 4 2 (12) 13
SAN JOSE ST (MTN WEST) 7-5 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17
SMU (AAC) 7-6 4 3 3 0 3 (16) 13
SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC) 8-5 4 0 3 4 2 (10) 13
SOUTH FLORIDA (AAC) 1-11 0 0 0 4 3 (13) 7
SOUTHERN MISS (SBC) 7-6 4 3 0 4 3 (15) 14
STANFORD (PAC 12) 3-9 0 0 0 0 0 (6) 0
SYRACUSE (ACC) 7-6 4 0 0 4 3 (14) 11
TCU (BIG 12) 13-2 4 3 3 0 2 (10) 12
TEMPLE (AAC) 3-9 4 3 0 4 3 (16) 14
TENNESSEE (SEC) 11-2 4 0 3 0 2 (12) 9
TEXAS (BIG 12) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17
TEXAS A&M (SEC) 5-7 4 0 3 4 5 (20) 16
TEXAS ST UNIV (SBC) 4-8 0 0 0 0 2 (11) 2
TEXAS TECH (BIG 12) 8-5 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18
TOLEDO (MAC) 9-5 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17
TROY (SBC) 12-2 4 3 0 4 2 (12) 13
TULANE (AAC) 12-2 4 0 0 4 3 (14) 11
TULSA (AAC) 5-7 0 0 0 0 1 (9) 1
TX-SAN ANTONIO (AAC) 11-3 4 0 3 4 3 (16) 14
UAB (AAC) 7-6 0 0 0 0 0 (7) 0
UCF (B12) 9-5 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14
UCLA (PAC 12) 9-4 4 3 0 0 3 (16) 10
UNLV (MTN WEST) 6-7 0 0 0 4 3 (13) 7
USC (PAC 12) 11-3 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18
UTAH (PAC 12) 10-4 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17
UTAH ST (MTN WEST) 6-7 4 0 0 4 1 (9) 9
UTEP (CUSA) 5-7 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14
VANDERBILT (SEC) 5-7 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17
VIRGINIA (ACC) 3-7 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13
VIRGINIA TECH (ACC) 3-8 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17
W KENTUCKY (CUSA) 9-5 4 3 3 4 2 (11) 16
W MICHIGAN (MAC) 4-8 0 0 3 0 1 (9) 4
WAKE FOREST (ACC) 8-5 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12
WASHINGTON (PAC 12) 11-2 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17
WASHINGTON ST (PAC 12) 7-6 4 0 0 4 2 (12) 10
WEST VIRGINIA (BIG 12) 5-7 4 0 3 0 3 (13) 10
WISCONSIN (BIG TEN) 7-6 0 0 0 0 4 (17) 4
WYOMING (MTN WEST) 7-6 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17

35
We’re starting to see less of it. Looking back at the last four years, prior
to the 2020 season, there were a total of 19 teams that were returning
17 starters or more. For 2021, there were 69 such teams, more than
half of the total FBS programs! Last year there were just 15, and for
2023 there are 16.
Furthermore, in 2021, 89 teams brought back their starting
quarterbacks, along with eight entire starting offensive units and nine
full defenses. For 2022, those numbers dropped to 78 QBs, zero full
offenses, and just one intact defense. In 2023, there are 72 returning
starting QBs, and only one intact unit of any kind, that being Texas
Tech’s offense. That said, there are also 23 new head coaches and
113 coordinator changes, resulting in 14 teams with Stability Scores
of 3 or less, the same amount as last year and nine more than in
2021. Again, this is all returning to normalcy after the crazy 2021
season.
Let’s dig deeper into the teams on both ends of the stability scale.
HIGHLY STABLE TEAMS WITH
SCORES OF 18 OR HIGHER
In 2019, there were seven teams with scores of 18 or higher, and in
2020, there were only three. For 2021, the number ballooned to 30
teams that met that benchmark for stability! Keep in mind, the maximum
score is 19. Last year, eight teams reached the 18-point benchmark. For
2023, there are six. These programs are in good shape for the coming
season, at least early.
CONNECTICUT (INDEPENDENT) – 18
Jim Mora’s Connecticut team was one of the biggest surprises in college
football last season in finishing 6-7 and playing in a bowl game for the
first time in seven years. There were little to no expectations of the team
doing well, but Mora had some sort of magic recipe. With 17 starters
back from that team for ’23, you’d have to think the Huskies have
a good shot at keeping the momentum going. There are only a few
games in which it would appear that UConn won’t be able to compete
for a win. That said, they did win last year as 23+ point underdogs to
Fresno State. For a program that won just four games from 2018-21, it’s
fun to see what’s transpiring at Connecticut.
FLORIDA STATE (ACC) - 18
If head coach Mike Norvell has really brought Florida State back
into the country’s elite ranks, this will be the year his team shows it.
They are loaded everywhere, particularly at QB, where Jordan Travis
returns for his senior season along with 16 other starters from a team
that went 10-3 and beat Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl game. Travis
accounted for over 30 TDs last season and is in the mix of Heisman
Trophy favorites. The defense allowed just 20.6 points per game as
well, the lowest average since the program’s national championship
season in 2013. The Seminoles are talented, hungry, and stable
heading into 2023.
KANSAS (BIG 12) – 18
Another team that made a quantum leap last season and is looking
to build upon the momentum in 2023 is Kansas, and like UConn, the
Jayhawks are in a very stable position to be able to do so. Back for
this fall are 17 total returning starters from the 6-7 team of a year ago,
led by QB Jalon Daniels, who, after a fast start, was lost to injury.
He missed five starts, and the offense definitely curtailed without him,
dropping by about 10 Points per game in his absence. If you recall
the 55-53 bowl game loss to Arkansas, Daniels and the Jayhawks put
on an absolute show in that game. Lance Leipold has this program
trending upward, and this should be his best group yet.
36
TEXAS TECH (BIG 12) – 18
Another Big 12 team that looks to be in solid shape to take a step
forward this season is Texas Tech, who begins its second season
under head coach Joey McGuire. The Red Raiders were 8-5 in
McGuire’s inaugural season, including an impressive 43-25 upset
of Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl. QB Tyler Shough is back for his
senior season after missing about half of last year with injury woes.
He leads the only fully intact offensive unit back for ’23 across the
country. There are also six defensive starters back, and that group
held teams to fewer than 30 Points per game for the first time since
’09. The schedule is very manageable as well, and if things come
together as they should with such a stable situation, the Red Raiders
could surprise a few folks this fall.
USC (PAC-12) – 18
Coming off a double-digit win season for the first time in five years
and boasting perhaps the nation’s top player in QB Caleb Williams,
expectations couldn’t be any higher in L.A. for USC and second-year
head coach Lincoln Riley. While the bewildering loss to Tulane in
this past season’s Cotton Bowl left a stain on an otherwise incredible
resurgent season for the Trojans, the aspirations for 2023 are even
loftier. There are 17 starters back in all, and Riley has returned the
program to the elite recruiting standards set in the Pete Carroll days.
The Pac-12 is looking pretty strong for 2023, but USC is the team to
beat and should be on a 6-0 roll when it arrives in South Bend in mid-
October for a clash with Notre Dame. Utah comes right after.
SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT) – 18
There wasn’t a lot of reason at this point last year to think that South
Alabama was heading for its first winning season since 2011, much
less winning 10 games. That is exactly what happened, as Kane
Wommack’s second Jaguars team put it together for a 10-2 regular
season before falling to Western Kentucky in the New Orleans Bowl.
Now, for ’23, Wommack has even more reason for optimism as all
but four starters are back from that benchmark-setting USA team. The
offensive stars are QB Carter Bradley and RB La’Damian Webb while
the staunch defensive unit that allowed just 21.3 Points per game brings
back nine starters. The schedule starts fast with trips to Tulane and
Oklahoma State in the first three weeks, but this team is in solid shape
and should be competitive in those contests, especially where the point
spread is concerned.
UNSTABLE TEAMS WITH
SCORES OF 2 OR LOWER
From 2019-21, there were a total of 16 teams going into the fall with
Stability Scores of 3 or lower. The combined record of those teams
wound up being 76-92 ATS, good for just 45.2%. However, we have
reached a new level of instability thanks to the significant uptick in
the transfer portal and coaches and coordinators moving from job to
job. Last year there were 14 teams alone that scored 3 or less on this
stability scale and eight with scores of two or less. This included a first-
ever score of zero for Nevada, who wound up going 2-10 SU and 4-8
ATS. For 2023, there are a lofty total of 11 teams that meet the criteria
of scoring 2 or less, including three teams with imperfect scores of 0.
Let’s look at those programs.
ARIZONA STATE (PAC-12) – 2
Arizona State was a train wreck last season, and it was obvious from
the outside that head coach Herm Edwards had lost control. In for
2023 is new head coach Kenny Dillingham, who inherits a team that
was 3-9 and with just half of its starters back. The new QB will be
transfer Drew Pyne, who comes over from Notre Dame. The systems
will be new, the Pac-12 is pretty loaded for 2023, meaning this could
be a long first season for Dillingham in Tempe.
CHARLOTTE (AMERICAN) – 2
Expectations were reasonably high for Charlotte last year at this time,
and why not? The 49ers had some good experience and were led by
a fifth-year QB in Chris Reynolds, who has since moved on to the NFL.
It turned out to be a disappointing 3-9 season, however, and with head
coach Will Healy having been fired, the reins are now turned over
to Biff Poggi, who gets his first head coaching chance. Poggi’s team
has fewer than half of its starters back and figures to be turning to
Bethune-Cookman transfer Jalon Jones at quarterback to run the new
system. Add in a conference change to the American, and it’s easy to
understand how this mass instability might impact Charlotte this fall.
CINCINNATI (BIG 12) – 1
Two years ago, Cincinnati became the first Group of Five conference
team to reach the CFP. Now, the Bearcats are stepping up into the
big time, joining the ranks of the Power Five through the Big 12
Conference. They couldn’t have picked a worse time to do it, as they
just lost head coach Luke Fickell and most of his staff to Wisconsin.
Not only that, but the program was also hit hard by transfers once
the Fickell move was announced. In all, just eight starters are back,
only two from the offense. The pain should be lessened somewhat
by the transfer of new QB Emory Jones in from ASU. However, this
is a quantum leap in schedule strength for a team that relied on its
togetherness to surprise bigger programs in recent years. With a
Stability Score of just 1, I’d stay away from, or better yet, fade this
team in its early season FBS tilts.
COLORADO (PAC-12) – 1
Sometimes instability in a season can prove to be a great reason for
optimism. Such is the case at Colorado this year, where Deion Sanders
takes over as head coach for a program that has been in a rut, having
played in bowl games just twice in the last 15 seasons. The early returns
are fantastic, however, as Sanders has stepped up the recruiting, and
the fans have embraced the change and proved it by setting a Spring
Game attendance record. However, instability is exactly that, and there
are very few teams that are going to be transitioning as drastically
as the Buffaloes are in 2023. Their first task is a contest at defending
national runner-up TCU, and the schedule doesn’t get very easy at
any point. It will be an entertaining situation to watch this season, but I
wouldn’t back the Buffaloes with your money, especially early.
KENT STATE (MAC) – 0
Nevada became the first team to post a zero stability score on my scale
last year, and for 2023, three teams equal that dubious honor. The
first is Kent State, who brings back the fewest starters in the country
with just four, including none from the offense. That might not be as
disastrous of a situation as you might think. With new systems being
put in place by first-time head coach Kenni Burns, who comes over from
Minnesota, it might make the installation process a little easier. That
said, the talent level at KSU is not what it was just two years ago, and it
will take some time for this very unstable situation to show any promise.
LOUISVILLE (ACC) – 2
I mentioned the reason for optimism at Colorado despite a high level
of instability. Things could be even more promising at Louisville, where
one of the all-time great QBs in program history returns to take over
as head coach. Fans are definitely excited about the prospects of Jeff
Brohm returning to the Cardinals’ program, as not only does he bring
some nostalgia points with him, but he also sports a pretty strong recent
history of explosive offenses while coaching at Purdue. Furthermore,
he brings an experienced QB with him in Jack Plummer, who should be
able to seamlessly transfer the work he put in for Brohm’s Boilermakers’
offense to here. The Cardinals were 8-5 last season and put up a
good performance in a 24-7 Fenway Bowl win over Cincy. I’ll call for
cautious optimism in this situation, particularly considering the point
spread in the first three FBS games.
37
PURDUE (BIG 12) – 2
Louisville’s gain is Purdue’s loss, as Jeff Brohm’s departure leaves a
void for a program coming off a season that brought its first trip to a
Big Ten title game. Ryan Walters takes over as the new head coach and
will be leading a team with just half of its starters back for ’23. Several
prognosticators have pegged the Boilermakers for last in the West
Division in the conference so it’s quite possible we could be looking
at a first to worst scenario in this first transitional campaign. That’s the
nature of instability, however.
STANFORD (PAC-12) – 0
The second team with an imperfect score of zero on my Stability Scale
is Stanford. Remember that Nevada was just 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS with
this challenge facing it a year ago. The Cardinal could have an even
bigger challenge than the Wolf Pack did last year, though, as they
are playing in what shapes up to be a very strong Pac-12 for 2023.
The schedule is treacherous, to put it mildly, for new head coach Troy
Taylor, and he’ll have only six total starters back, three on each side
of the ball. Making it more difficult, Taylor takes over for David Shaw,
who set new standards for success at the school in his 12 years but
unexpectedly flamed out late.
TEXAS STATE (SUN BELT) – 2
There are doormats every year in the FBS on which teams get healthy,
and oddsmakers can’t seem to be able to set lines high enough for
them. One of those teams in 2023 might just be Texas State. GJ Kinne
takes over as head coach and will bring back 11 starters from the 4-8
team of a year ago. I went over it last week, and the recruiting efforts
of recent years provide little reason for optimism in 2023 for Kinne and
his new staff. That said, the one shining light might be the late addition
of transfer QB TJ Finley from Auburn. Still, TSU is a highly unstable
situation heading into fall practice, and the first two games on the
schedule (at Baylor, at UTSA) wreak of blowout.
TULSA (AMERICAN) – 1
Last year, Tulsa’s drop in the AAC was unexpected, especially with
QB Davis Brin and an otherwise experienced and winning core group
back. A couple of upset losses in their first six games and the Golden
Hurricane ended up a disappointing 5-7 and left out of the bowl
picture. The results cost head coach Philip Montgomery his job, as he
is now replaced by Kevin Wilson, who comes over after serving as
offensive coordinator at power Ohio State. That in itself is reason for
optimism, but mind you, it figures to be down the road. This year’s
Tulsa team boasts little experience (nine returning starters) and faces
a schedule that finds at Washington and hosting Oklahoma in games
2 and 3. The lines for those contests will have to be massive for me to
give any consideration whatsoever, as they will both be qualified as
Stability Mismatch System plays for both heavy favorites.
UAB (AMERICAN) – 0
The third and final zero team for the 2023 season in terms of Stability
Scores is UAB, under the leadership of first-time head coach Trent Dilfer,
who is perhaps known better for either his ESPN analytical career or
for having shockingly won a Super Bowl as a starting quarterback.
Dilfer’s first job will be a tough one, as UAB is switching conferences to
the AAC (from C-USA) and has only seven starters back. This program
has been riding high under Bill Clark and Bryant Vincent, but this hire
is a massive shock to the system. The Blazers qualified for a bowl game
every year since returning to FBS football in 2017 after a two-year
hiatus. That was a remarkable feat. It’s a good bet that streak ends in
2023.
 STEVE MAKINEN’S

POWER RATINGS
TEAM POWER RATING TEAM POWER RATING TEAM POWER RATING
GEORGIA 70.5 PITTSBURGH 47.5 ARMY 36.0
OHIO ST 69.0 SYRACUSE 47.0 EAST CAROLINA 36.0
ALABAMA 67.5 BOISE ST 46.0 SOUTHERN MISS 36.0
MICHIGAN 67.0 BYU 46.0 UAB 35.0
LSU 62.5 KANSAS 46.0 COLORADO 34.5
TEXAS 62.5 MICHIGAN ST 46.0 MIAMI OHIO 34.5
USC 62.0 NEBRASKA 46.0 SAN JOSE ST 34.5
PENN ST 61.5 PURDUE 46.0 GEORGIA ST 34.0
CLEMSON 59.5 WASHINGTON ST 46.0 STANFORD 34.0
FLORIDA ST 59.5 CALIFORNIA 45.5 TEMPLE 33.5
OREGON 59.5 WAKE FOREST 45.5 GA SOUTHERN 33.0
UTAH 59.0 SMU 45.0 RICE 33.0
NOTRE DAME 58.5 WEST VIRGINIA 45.0 C MICHIGAN 32.5
WASHINGTON 58.0 MEMPHIS 44.5 JACKSONVILLE ST 32.5
OKLAHOMA 57.5 TROY 44.5 MIDDLE TENN ST 32.5
TENNESSEE 56.5 TX-SAN ANTONIO 44.5 CONNECTICUT 32.0
OLE MISS 56.0 S ALABAMA 44.0 E MICHIGAN 32.0
TEXAS A&M 56.0 CINCINNATI 43.5 BUFFALO 31.5
TEXAS TECH 54.0 HOUSTON 43.5 N ILLINOIS 31.5
WISCONSIN 54.0 ARIZONA 43.0 SOUTH FLORIDA 31.5
NORTH CAROLINA 53.5 ARIZONA ST 42.5 TULSA 31.5
OREGON ST 53.5 FRESNO ST 42.5 UNLV 31.5
KANSAS ST 53.0 TOLEDO 42.0 BALL ST 30.5
TCU 53.0 AIR FORCE 41.5 COLORADO ST 30.0
KENTUCKY 52.5 MARSHALL 40.5 LOUISIANA TECH 30.0
ARKANSAS 52.0 W KENTUCKY 40.5 UTAH ST 30.0
AUBURN 52.0 FLA ATLANTIC 39.5 UTEP 30.0
BAYLOR 52.0 JAMES MADISON 39.5 ARKANSAS ST 28.0
FLORIDA 52.0 VANDERBILT 39.5 BOWLING GREEN 28.0
IOWA 51.5 VIRGINIA TECH 39.5 OLD DOMINION 27.5
UCLA 51.5 GEORGIA TECH 39.0 TEXAS ST UNIV 27.5
MINNESOTA 50.5 INDIANA 39.0 NEVADA 26.5
MISSISSIPPI ST 50.5 SAN DIEGO ST 39.0 NEW MEXICO ST 26.0
SOUTH CAROLINA 50.5 VIRGINIA 39.0 W MICHIGAN 26.0
ILLINOIS 50.0 BOSTON COLLEGE 38.5 CHARLOTTE 25.0
LOUISVILLE 50.0 LA LAFAYETTE 38.5 LA MONROE 24.5
MARYLAND 50.0 NORTHWESTERN 38.5 AKRON 24.0
UCF 50.0 RUTGERS 38.5 HAWAII 23.0
MIAMI FL 49.5 WYOMING 38.0 SAM HOUSTON ST 23.0
MISSOURI 49.5 APPALACHIAN ST 37.5 FLA INTERNATIONAL 21.5
TULANE 49.0 COASTAL CAROLINA 37.5 NEW MEXICO 21.0
IOWA ST 48.5 NAVY 37.0 KENT ST 20.5
NC STATE 48.5 LIBERTY 36.5 MASSACHUSETTS 17.5
DUKE 47.5 NORTH TEXAS 36.5
OKLAHOMA ST 47.5 OHIO U 38 36.5
 COLLEGE FOOTBALL

RETURNING STARTERS
TEAM RETURNING TEAM RETURNING TEAM RETURNING
TEXAS A&M 20 UTEP 15 MEMPHIS 12
MIAMI FL 19 VANDERBILT 15 MISSISSIPPI ST 12
DUKE 18 WASHINGTON 15 NORTHWESTERN 12
S ALABAMA 18 WYOMING 15 SAN DIEGO ST 12
ARMY 17 BOISE ST 14 TENNESSEE 12
AUBURN 17 BYU 14 TROY 12
CALIFORNIA 17 COASTAL CAROLINA 14 WASHINGTON ST 12
CONNECTICUT 17 HAWAII 14 APPALACHIAN ST 11
FLA ATLANTIC 17 KENTUCKY 14 ARIZONA 11
FLORIDA ST 17 OHIO ST 14 ARKANSAS ST 11
KANSAS 17 RICE 14 E MICHIGAN 11
NAVY 17 RUTGERS 14 FLORIDA 11
NORTH CAROLINA 17 SAN JOSE ST 14 FRESNO ST 11
TEXAS TECH 17 SYRACUSE 14 LOUISIANA TECH 11
USC 17 TULANE 14 MARSHALL 11
WISCONSIN 17 VIRGINIA TECH 14 MARYLAND 11
IOWA 16 AIR FORCE 13 NC STATE 11
JACKSONVILLE ST 16 BALL ST 13 PITTSBURGH 11
MIAMI OHIO 16 C MICHIGAN 13 PURDUE 11
OLE MISS 16 GEORGIA 13 TEXAS ST UNIV 11
OREGON 16 JAMES MADISON 13 W KENTUCKY 11
PENN ST 16 KANSAS ST 13 WAKE FOREST 11
SAM HOUSTON ST 16 MICHIGAN ST 13 ALABAMA 10
SMU 16 MIDDLE TENN ST 13 ARKANSAS 10
TEMPLE 16 MINNESOTA 13 BUFFALO 10
TEXAS 16 NEVADA 13 CHARLOTTE 10
TOLEDO 16 NEW MEXICO ST 13 EAST CAROLINA 10
TX-SAN ANTONIO 16 NOTRE DAME 13 LA MONROE 10
UCLA 16 OKLAHOMA 13 SOUTH CAROLINA 10
UTAH 16 OKLAHOMA ST 13 TCU 10
AKRON 15 OREGON ST 13 LA LAFAYETTE 9
BOSTON COLLEGE 15 SOUTH FLORIDA 13 NEW MEXICO 9
CLEMSON 15 UNLV 13 TULSA 9
COLORADO ST 15 VIRGINIA 13 UTAH ST 9
IOWA ST 15 WEST VIRGINIA 13 W MICHIGAN 9
LSU 15 ARIZONA ST 12 CINCINNATI 8
MASSACHUSETTS 15 BAYLOR 12 COLORADO 8
MICHIGAN 15 BOWLING GREEN 12 INDIANA 8
MISSOURI 15 FLA INTERNATIONAL 12 LIBERTY 8
N ILLINOIS 15 GA SOUTHERN 12 OLD DOMINION 7
NEBRASKA 15 GEORGIA ST 12 UAB 7
NORTH TEXAS 15 GEORGIA TECH 12 STANFORD 6
OHIO U 15 HOUSTON 12 KENT ST 4
SOUTHERN MISS 15 ILLINOIS 12
UCF 15 LOUISVILLE 12
aac
betting preview
Several conferences in college football got a makeover this offseason, and the American Athletic Conference is one of them. The AAC lost UCF, Houston, and
Cincinnati to the Big 12 but picked up UTSA, North Texas, Florida Atlantic, UAB, Rice, and Charlotte from Conference USA. The facelift absolutely weakens
the AAC, as two perennial Group of Five New Year’s Six bowl teams left to become Power Five programs, and the C-USA additions are a real mixed bag.

Along with the incoming and outgoing teams, the AAC did away with divisions, so the two top teams by the standing will square off on December 2 at the
host site of the regular season conference champion.

The new members are hardly the only changes for the conference. The AAC also features seven new head coaches out of the 14 programs, as FAU, Navy,
North Texas, UAB, Charlotte, USF, and Tulsa all welcomed in fresh hires.

Not surprisingly, Tulane (+205) is the favorite to run it back as conference champion after finishing No. 9 in the AP Top 25 after beating USC in a thrilling
Cotton Bowl Classic with a 46-45 win. Stiff competition will undoubtedly come from UTSA (+450), a program that went 18-3 straight up on Jeff Traylor’s
watch in Conference USA. The Roadrunners were No. 27 in the AP poll at season’s end.

AAC holdovers SMU (+400) and Memphis (+600) are also considered to be top contenders, with newcomer FAU (+650) as the fifth choice before a huge
drop-off to the rest of the conference. The mash-up of the AAC and Conference USA will make for a really interesting season.

2023 Schedule Strength All Games Conference Games DraftKings

Team SM PR (Rank) PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's O/U
TULANE 49 36.25 (88) 9.2 2.8 6.3 1.7 9.5
SMU 45 35.43 (89) 8.4 3.6 6.1 1.9 8
MEMPHIS 44.5 34.29 (102) 8.4 3.6 5.7 2.3 7.5
TX-SAN ANTONIO 44.5 37.63 (73) 8.0 4.0 5.7 2.3 7.5
FLA ATLANTIC 39.5 37 (78) 6.7 5.3 4.9 3.1 7.5
NAVY 37 33.7 (107) 6.3 5.7 4.3 3.7 6.5
EAST CAROLINA 36 39.41 (70) 5.2 6.8 3.5 4.5 5.5
NORTH TEXAS 36.5 36.61 (84) 5.9 6.1 3.2 4.8 6.5
UAB 35 39.36 (71) 5.0 7.0 3.1 4.9 5
RICE 33 37.13 (75) 4.9 7.1 3.0 5.0 4.5
TEMPLE 33.5 33.88 (106) 5.2 6.8 2.9 5.1 5
SOUTH FLORIDA 31.5 38.05 (72) 4.4 7.6 2.9 5.1 4
TULSA 31.5 36.73 (82) 4.4 7.6 2.9 5.1 4.5
CHARLOTTE 25 36.7 (83) 2.9 9.1 1.5 6.5 2.5

40
 CHARLOTTE HEAD COACH: BIFF POGGI (1ST)
49ERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MIKE MILLER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: RYAN OSBORN

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #125 OF 133

The Charlotte 49ers joined the FBS ranks in 2015 and have one winning season
and one bowl game appearance in that span. After making what felt like a
promising hire in Will Healy, who had a 7-6 debut during the 2019 season,
the 49ers have shifted gears and brought in a football lifer in hopes of setting
POWER RATING 25 CONFERENCE RANK: #14 OF 14

some new standards. With 10 wins in the last 30 games, the job now falls on
the shoulders of 63-year-old Biff Poggi, who most recently was the assistant 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
head coach at Michigan.
9/2 S CAROLINA ST -25 2
SCHEDULE 36.70
OFFENSE
9/9 at Maryland 27.5 50
STRENGTH #83 TOUGHEST OF 133
This will be virtually a brand-new offense in the Queen City. Only a few
returning starters are back, as the 49ers bid adieu to all-time leading passer
Chris Reynolds, who amassed over 10,000 yards in five seasons with the
9/16 GEORGIA ST 7 34
FIELD 2 / -0.2
program, and also the team’s top four receivers. True freshman RB Durell
9/23 at Florida
9/30 at SMU
30
23.5
52
45
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Robinson may usurp Shadrick Byrd, so the 49ers offense might as well have
three returning starters. This is basically a completely rebuilt line as well. 10/14 NAVY 10 37

2023 ODDS
10/21 at East Carolina 14 36
Starting from scratch may work out, as the 49ers managed only 24.4 points
per game, though they were a very respectable 52nd in yards per play. 10/27 FLA ATLANTIC 12.5 39.5
Charlotte even scored a touchdown on 29 of 37 red-zone trips. Turnovers hurt, 11/4 at Tulsa 8.5 31.5
as the 49ers were -8 in TO margin, but their 21 giveaways only tied for 95th ODDS TO WIN
11/11 MEMPHIS 17.5 44.5
nationally. This should have been a more productive offense than it was, but it
11/18 RICE 6 33
200-1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
is now Mike Miller’s problem after serving as Maryland’s co-OC last season.
11/25 at South Florida 8.5 31.5
DEFENSE
This defense was beyond awful last season, and a step up to the AAC probably
won’t help. The 49ers were one of three teams to allow more than seven yards
ODDS TO WIN
per play. They gave up over five yards per carry, and opponents completed RETURNING OFFENSE: 4 5000-1
10
NATIONAL

STARTERS
70% of their passes. Only conference foe South Florida was worse in that CHAMPIONSHIP
department. Four starters are back, but based on last season’s production, that DEFENSE: 6
may be a good thing.

Hiring defensive coaches from the Baltimore Ravens or Michigan Wolverines

seems like a sound strategy as defensive coordinator Ryan Osborn takes over.
There is nowhere to go but up for this defense, but it will have to go up a
long way with a new scheme for the holdovers and a brand new team for the
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-9, ATS: 4-7, O/U: 6-6
transfers, of which there are several in hopes of improving in a lot of areas. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 24.5 80 39.3 128 9/2 WILLIAM & MARY (-4.5) 24-41 L L
OUTLOOK 15.9 103 12.2 120
Yards Per Point 9/10 MARYLAND (28) 21-56 L L
At 63, Poggi probably isn’t looking for a long-term rebuild, but he may not
Plays Per Game 69.3 79 9/17 at Georgia St (19.5) 42-41 W W
have much of a choice. He was hired in mid-November, as the team was
finishing last season, and he brings a businesslike mentality to the job as a Time of Possession 29:41 71 9/24 at South Carolina (23.5) 20-56 L L
former hedge fund manager. We’ve seen that strategy work in the pro ranks, 3rd Down Conv. % 38.9% 57 45.9% 117 10/1 UTEP (3.5) 35-41 L L
at least in terms of front-office executives, and it worked for Jamey Chadwell Total Yards Per Game 387.8 62 477.6 126 10/15 at UAB (22.5) 20-34 L W
at Coastal Carolina. We’ll see if it works at Charlotte, but expectations are low, Yards Per Play 5.6 49 6.8 128 10/22 FLA INTERNATIONAL (-14) 15-34 L L
with a win total of 2.5. My projection is for 2.65 victories, and the 49ers will Rush Attempts Per Game 30.4 116 10/29 at Rice (15) 56-23 W W
only be favored once this season in all likelihood. Rush Yards Per Game 114.7 100 197.1 111 11/5 W KENTUCKY (14.5) 7-59 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.8 84 5.1 117 11/12 at Middle Tenn St (10) 14-24 L T
Pass Attempts Per Game 36.2 30 11/19 LOUISIANA TECH (2) 26-21 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 60.3% 68 70.1% 129

UNDER 2.5
Passing Yards Per Game 273.1 24 280.5 123
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.5 53 9.5 131
Turnovers 1.9 113 1.2 94

41
 EAST CAROLINA HEAD COACH: MIKE HOUSTON (5TH)
PIRATES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DONNIE KIRKPATRICK
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BLAKE HARRELL

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #91 OF 133

Head coach Mike Houston has officially put his stamp on the East Carolina
program as the Pirates ride back-to-back bowl game appearances into the 2023
season. Well, sort of. The 2021 Military Bowl was canceled, but the Pirates
went to the 2022 Birmingham Bowl and rocked a shorthanded Coastal Carolina
POWER RATING 36 CONFERENCE RANK: #8 OF 14

team for the program’s first bowl win since 2013. This may be Houston’s last
year in Greenville, especially if he excels with a tall task. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/2 at Michigan 34 67
SCHEDULE 39.41
For seemingly the first time in a decade, Holton Ahlers will not be the QB at
9/9 MARSHALL 2 40.5
STRENGTH #70 TOUGHEST OF 133
ECU. Ahlers left as the program’s all-time leading passer after five seasons
of games in purple and gold. Redshirt sophomore Mason Garcia looks to get
the first crack after throwing 12 passes last season, but three-star freshman
9/16 at Appalachian St 4 37.5
FIELD 2.8 / 0.3
Raheim Jeter could be knocking on the door very quickly. Nothing is really set
9/23 GARDNER WEBB -14.5 24.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
in stone at the position. 9/30 at Rice -1 33
10/12 SMU 6.5 45
It isn’t just the loss of Ahlers and his 28/5 TD/INT ratio that looms large. The
2023 ODDS
10/21 CHARLOTTE -14 25
Pirates also have to replace 1,452 rushing yards and 14 scores from Keaton
Mitchell, along with replacing two 1,000-yard receivers in Isaiah Winstead and 10/28 at TX-San Antonio 11.5 44.5
CJ Johnson. With only four starters back from an offense that averaged 5.3 11/4 TULANE 10 49
yards per carry and 6.6 yards per play, OC Donnie Kirkpatrick and Houston ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Fla Atlantic 6 39.5
have a lot to figure out.
11/18 at Navy 3.5 37
25-1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC

DEFENSE 11/25 TULSA -7 31.5

ECU was stout against the run last season, holding opponents to just 3.4 yards
per carry and 112 yards per contest, but the Pirates were shredded through the
air. They did force 15 interceptions with a high-risk, high-reward strategy from
ODDS TO WIN
DC Blake Harrell. The Pirates finished +13 in turnover margin, but they gave RETURNING OFFENSE: 4 1000-1
10
NATIONAL

STARTERS
up over 290 passing yards per game and the 10th-highest completion rate in CHAMPIONSHIP
the nation. DEFENSE: 6

Between injuries and the style of play, the Pirates rotated in a lot of guys,
as nobody had more than 87 tackles, and sack leader Jeremy Lewis had
4.5 sacks. Nobody had more than six pass breakups, and that player (Malik
Fleming) is gone, along with co-leader Jireh Wilson in interceptions. ECU
did have 29 sacks, the program’s most since 2018, but still hasn’t held an
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 7-6
opponent under six yards per play in a decade. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 31.2 36 28.6 76 9/3 NC STATE (12.5) 20-21 L W
OUTLOOK 14.5 75 14.4 61
Yards Per Point 9/10 OLD DOMINION (-13) 39-21 W W
This is a huge test for Houston and his staff with only 10 returning starters, a
Plays Per Game 71.2 57 9/17 CAMPBELL (-32.5) 49-10 W W
bunch of transfers, and the major loss of production on offense. The 51-year-
old FCS National Champion with James Madison in 2016 will be highly sought- Time of Possession 31:23 32 9/24 NAVY (-16.5) 20-23 L L
after, and you wonder how that will impact the roster as the season goes 3rd Down Conv. % 45.9% 18 43.4% 108 10/1 at South Florida (-9.5) 48-28 W W
along. The nonconference schedule is tricky, and the conference slate is also Total Yards Per Game 451.9 23 411.1 88 10/8 at Tulane (3) 9-24 L L
rather tough. My projections call for 5.74 wins, but if anybody can overachieve, Yards Per Play 6.4 18 6.1 113 10/15 MEMPHIS (-5.5) 47-45 W L
it is a coach like Houston. I’d still lean toward a more pessimistic outlook with Rush Attempts Per Game 31.9 106 10/22 UCF (6) 34-13 W W
all the turnover. Rush Yards Per Game 162.4 56 118.9 21 10/28 at BYU (3) 27-24 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 22 3.7 31 11/11 at Cincinnati (4.5) 25-27 L W
Pass Attempts Per Game 38.1 20 11/19 HOUSTON (-6) 3-42 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 65.9% 15 66.8% 123 11/26 at Temple (-9.5) 49-46 W L

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 289.5 15 292.2 130 12/27 vs. Coastal Carolina (-7) 53-29 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.6 49 8.8 127
Turnovers 0.6 2 1.5 51

42
 FLORIDA ATLANTIC HEAD COACH: TOM HERMAN (1ST)
OWLS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CHARLIE FRYE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ROC BELLANTONI

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #75 OF 133

This is a season of new beginnings in Boca Raton. The Florida Atlantic Owls are
now members of the AAC and have a new head coach in Tom Herman. Herman
is back in the AAC after two years with Houston in 2015-16 and back as the
head coach for the first time since 2020, when he was fired from his Texas gig.
POWER RATING 39.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #5 OF 14

The Owls had two 11-win seasons under Lane Kiffin in 2017 and 2019 and have
only gone 15-18 since Kiffin moved on to Ole Miss. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/2 MONMOUTH NJ -27.5 14.5
SCHEDULE 37.00
To revamp the offense, Herman went to an old friend and got Casey Thompson
9/9 OHIO U -6 36.5
STRENGTH #78 TOUGHEST OF 133
to transfer in from Nebraska. Thompson was a Herman recruit to Austin, and
he comes in with 20 starts worth of experience to replace former Miami (FL)
QB N’Kosi Perry. Former Akron Zips and Cleveland Browns QB Charlie Frye is
9/16 at Clemson
9/23 at Illinois
22.5
13.5
59.5
50
FIELD 3 / -0.1
the new offensive coordinator, and he has a lot to work with.
10/7 TULSA -11 31.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Not only is Thompson a good starting point, but FAU had a 1,000-yard rusher 10/14 at South Florida -6 31.5
in Larry McCammon last season, and backup RB Zuberi Mobley had 534 yards. 10/21 TX-SAN ANTONIO 2.5 44.5
With leading receiver LaJohntay Wester, this has the makings of a really good
offense. The Owls had 4.9, 5.7, and 5.7 yards per play under Willie Taggart, 10/27 at Charlotte -12.5 25
2023 ODDS
but I’d bet they get back over six yards per play for the first time since Kiffin’s 11/4 at UAB -2 35
final season in 2019.
+650
11/11 EAST CAROLINA -6 36 ODDS TO WIN
AMERICAN ATHLETIC
DEFENSE 11/18 TULANE 6.5 49
From a scoring standpoint, the FAU defense has been pretty good the last 11/25 at Rice -4 33
three seasons, holding opponents to 17.4, 25.8, and 26.6 points per game, but
the yards-per-play metrics and the sack rates were very low. Ten starters are
back from last year’s defense, so hopes are high that FAU can build off of an
ODDS TO WIN
experienced unit with Herman and new defensive coordinator Roc Bellantoni. RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 3000-1
17
NATIONAL

The Owls were 64th in scoring defense but 108th in yards per play allowed.
In the more explosive AAC, even without Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston, the
STARTERS DEFENSE: 10
CHAMPIONSHIP

defense will need to limit big plays and get more of a pass rush. FAU had 34
total sacks over the last two seasons. There were 31 FBS teams with more than
34 sacks last season alone.

OUTLOOK
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 5-7
My projection for FAU is 7.44 wins, so pretty close to the market number. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
I don’t think the step up in conference hurts them too much. The schedule Points Per Game 28.6 54 28.2 71 8/27 CHARLOTTE (-7) 43-13 W W
is somewhat kind to the Owls, as they host UTSA and Tulane. There is a lot 13.7 42 15.7 29
Yards Per Point 9/3 at Ohio U (-6) 38-41 L L
of talent on this roster that could be better maximized by Herman and his
Plays Per Game 72.1 49 9/10 SE LOUISIANA (-12) 42-9 W W
assistants than what Taggart got out of them. Herman will get a good idea of
what he has to work with in road games at Clemson and Illinois before a well- Time of Possession 28:13 105 9/17 UCF (7.5) 14-40 L L
timed bye prior to the start of AAC play in early October. 3rd Down Conv. % 40.5% 44 37.9% 56 9/24 at Purdue (16) 26-28 L W
Total Yards Per Game 391.9 57 441.2 110 10/1 at North Texas (-3) 28-45 L L
Yards Per Play 5.4 60 6.1 111 10/15 RICE (-4.5) 17-14 W L
Rush Attempts Per Game 39.5 37 10/22 at UTEP (-3) 21-24 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 168.2 53 191.5 106 10/29 UAB (5) 24-17 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.3 63 5.1 120 11/12 at Fla International (-14.5) 52-7 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 31.5 68 11/19 at Middle Tenn St (-4.5) 21-49 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 57.1% 96 61.3% 78 11/26 W KENTUCKY (7.5) 31-32 L W

OVER 7.5
Passing Yards Per Game 223.7 73 249.7 93
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.1 74 7.4 76
Turnovers 1 16 1.6 36

43
 MEMPHIS HEAD COACH: RYAN SILVERFIELD (4TH)
TIGERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TIM CRAMSEY
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MATT BARNES

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #60 OF 133

This feels like a big year for head coach Ryan Silverfield. The Memphis Tigers
won 57 games from 2014-19, but they have only gone 13-12 over the last two
seasons. Silverfield had a solid 8-3 season during the COVID year, but his teams
have underwhelmed in 2021 and 2022. For a program that set some new
POWER RATING 44.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #4 OF 14

expectations under Justin Fuente and Mike Norvell, mediocrity is unacceptable.

2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
This year’s Tigers team will have a mostly rebuilt offense. QB Seth Henigan is 9/2 BETHUNE-COOKMAN -47 1
SCHEDULE 34.29
back after throwing for over 3,500 yards last season, but Memphis’s top four
9/9 at Arkansas St -14 28
STRENGTH #102 TOUGHEST OF 133
pass-catchers moved on, and the running game averaged fewer than four yards
per carry for the second straight season. Second-year OC Tim Cramsey elevated
the team from 30.1 to 35.3 points per game, but the Tigers went down 0.3
9/14 NAVY
9/23 vs. Missouri
-10.5
5.5
37
49.5
FIELD 3 / -0.1
yards per play.
9/30 BOISE ST -1 46
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

The running game may get a huge boost from Old Dominion transfer Blake 10/13 TULANE 1.5 49
Watson, who had over 2,100 yards in four seasons with the Monarchs. Memphis 10/21 at UAB -7 35
hasn’t had a game-changer at that position since Darrell Henderson left
in 2018, so that should be a point of emphasis this season to restore some 10/28 at North Texas -5.5 36.5
2023 ODDS
balance. 11/4 SOUTH FLORIDA -16.5 31.5

+600
11/11 at Charlotte -17.5 25 ODDS TO WIN
The Tigers were also -16 in sack margin last season, so they’ll need to protect AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Henigan better. 11/18 SMU -2.5 45
11/25 at Temple -8.5 33.5
DEFENSE
While the Tigers’ defense only mustered 21 sacks, they had 22 takeaways and
held opponents to just 5.3 yards per play. That was the stoutest bunch against
ODDS TO WIN
the run that Memphis has had in a while, but top tacklers Xavier Cullens RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 QB 1000-1
12
NATIONAL

STARTERS
and Quindell Johnson are both gone, taking 11 tackles for loss and 188 total CHAMPIONSHIP
tackles with them. DEFENSE: 6

Like most teams, Memphis was active in the transfer portal, both at the FBS
and JUCO ranks. Second-year defensive coordinator Matt Barnes will need to
mature as a play-caller, as Memphis was in the lower half of the nation in
third-down defense and just barely inside the top 100 in red zone TD%. The
Tigers were also -3 in TO margin in AAC play after being +7 in nonconference
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 8-5
play. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 33.3 23 28.2 69 9/3 at Mississippi St (17) 23-49 L L
OUTLOOK 12.5 15 13.6 85
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Navy (-4.5) 37-13 W W
My projections have Memphis for 8.25 wins, as they have a pretty friendly
Plays Per Game 75.8 18 9/17 ARKANSAS ST (-14.5) 44-32 W L
schedule. They play a lot of teams moving up from Conference USA and don’t
face UTSA. They also get Tulane at home, and my home-field advantage Time of Possession 30:27 53 9/24 NORTH TEXAS (-13) 44-34 W L
numbers give Memphis a 3.5-point HFA, though that is largely thanks to what 3rd Down Conv. % 45.6% 21 43.1% 107 10/1 TEMPLE (-18.5) 24-3 W W
happened late in the Norvell years because I take a five-year sample. I actually Total Yards Per Game 416.6 39 383.3 62 10/7 HOUSTON (-1.5) 32-33 L L
think, despite my projections, I like the Under more than the Over, but the Yards Per Play 5.5 56 5.3 49 10/15 at East Carolina (5.5) 45-47 L W
schedule is pretty soft in league play. Rush Attempts Per Game 37.5 55 10/22 at Tulane (7) 28-38 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 133.8 87 123.9 26 11/5 UCF (3) 28-35 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.6 94 3.5 23 11/10 TULSA (-6.5) 26-10 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 35.5 34 11/19 N ALABAMA (-36.5) 59-0 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.1% 33 64.2% 107 11/26 at SMU (4.5) 31-34 L W

UNDER 7.5
Passing Yards Per Game 282.8 18 259.4 100 12/27 vs. Utah St (-8) 38-10 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8 35 7.2 68
Turnovers 1.3 48 1.6 38

44
 NAVY HEAD COACH: BRIAN NEWBERRY (1ST)
MIDSHIPMEN
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: GRANT CHESNUT
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: P.J. VOLKER

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #87 OF 133

For the first time since 2001, Ken Niumatalolo will not be on the Navy sideline.
After serving as head coach for 15 seasons from 2007-22 and the offensive
coordinator and assistant head coach from 2002-07 under Paul Johnson,
Niumatalolo was relieved of his duties at the end of last season. Defensive
POWER RATING 37 CONFERENCE RANK: #6 OF 14

coordinator Brian Newberry takes over a program that has fallen on hard times
with four or fewer wins in four of the last five seasons. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 8/26 vs. Notre Dame 22 58.5
SCHEDULE 33.70
Kennesaw State will join the FBS ranks next season, but the Owls’ former
9/9 WAGNER -53 -13
STRENGTH #107 TOUGHEST OF 133
offensive coordinator Grant Chesnut is already there in the same role with
Navy. Chesnut was the OC when Newberry was the DC at KSU from 2015-18,
so those two have a lot of familiarity working together. It will be a run-heavy
9/14 at Memphis 10.5 44.5
FIELD 2.6 / 0.1
offense once again, as Chesnut brings in a successful spread-option concept
9/30 SOUTH FLORIDA
10/7 NORTH TEXAS
-8.5
-3
31.5
36.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
that regularly gave FCS defenses problems.
10/14 at Charlotte -10 25
The first item of business will be to find a quarterback. Xavier Arline and Tai
2023 ODDS
10/21 AIR FORCE 2 41.5
Lavatai are both holdovers, but neither was all that effective last season when
the Middies averaged just 4.1 yards per carry. That was a step up from 3.9 11/4 at Temple -1 33.5
yards per carry in 2021 and 3.7 yards per carry in 2020, but nowhere near 11/11 UAB -4.5 35
good enough. It may come down to the best passer, as Chesnut’s spread-option ODDS TO WIN
11/18 EAST CAROLINA -3.5 36
does have more passing concepts than the classic triple-option.
11/25 at SMU 11 45
30-1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC

DEFENSE 12/9 vs. Army -1.5 36

Navy’s defensive numbers aren’t always the best barometer of success. Despite
a rather ineffective running game, Navy was still second in the nation in
time of possession, so the Midshipmen’s defense wasn’t out there a lot. They
ODDS TO WIN
allowed 5.8 yards per play and got beaten badly through the air for 250 yards RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 2000-1
17
NATIONAL

STARTERS
per game and a 63.2% completion rate, despite racking up 34 sacks. CHAMPIONSHIP
DEFENSE: 9
Navy was 10th in red zone TD% against, which helped the numbers
tremendously given that they were 87th in yards per play allowed. The defense
will largely stay the same with Newberry as the head coach and PJ Volker
promoted to defensive coordinator. Plus, Navy does return nine starters on
defense, although top tackler and top sack man John Marshall is not one of
them. He had over one-third of the team’s sacks with 11.5 and led the team in
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 7-5, O/U: 7-5
pass breakups. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 23.3 88 25.3 51 9/3 DELAWARE (-13) 7-14 L L
OUTLOOK 14.3 68 13.9 74
Yards Per Point 9/10 MEMPHIS (4.5) 13-37 L L
Navy’s struggles shouldn’t come as a surprise. AAC teams are way more
Plays Per Game 70 67 9/24 at East Carolina (16.5) 23-20 W W
prepared for the option than opponents were when Navy played as an
Independent. It took some time for AAC teams to script against it, but they Time of Possession 34:50 3 10/1 at Air Force (14) 10-13 L W
have, and the overall increase in opposing offensive production has hurt 3rd Down Conv. % 38.3% 68 37.6% 52 10/8 TULSA (4.5) 51-21 W W
the Middies’ defense. They return a lot of production from a bad team and Total Yards Per Game 332.3 104 351.7 32 10/14 at SMU (12.5) 34-40 L W
also have to adapt to the modified option offense. My projection is for 5.54 Yards Per Play 4.7 110 5.8 94 10/22 HOUSTON (3) 20-38 L L
wins, well below the 6.5 in the market. Navy does play four Conference USA Rush Attempts Per Game 58.6 2 10/29 TEMPLE (-14.5) 27-20 W L
defenses that haven’t seen the option as much as AAC teams, so that could Rush Yards Per Game 250.9 4 96 4 11/5 at Cincinnati (18) 10-20 L W
allow them to overachieve.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.3 61 3.3 10 11/12 NOTRE DAME (16.5) 32-35 L W
Pass Attempts Per Game 10.3 129 11/19 at UCF (15.5) 17-14 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 43.4% 130 63.3% 100 12/10 vs. Army (-2.5) 17-20 L L

UNDER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 81.4 130 255.7 98
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.9 37 8.9 128
Turnovers 1.1 30 1.5 46

45
 NORTH TEXAS HEAD COACH: ERIC MORRIS (1ST)
EAGLES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JORDAN DAVIS
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MATT CAPONI

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #89 OF 133

The North Texas Mean Green made three straight bowl game appearances
under Seth Littrell, but the administration felt that things had gotten a bit
stale and that it was time for a change. The Mean Green have experienced just
two winning seasons since 2013, and the move from Conference USA to the
POWER RATING 36.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #7 OF 14

AAC requires a bit more upside. Enter Eric Morris and a new era of football in
Denton. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
SCHEDULE 36.61
9/2 CALIFORNIA 6.5 45.5
Morris, who went 24-18 in 42 games at UIW from 2018-21, was the offensive
9/9 at Fla International -13 21.5
STRENGTH #84 TOUGHEST OF 133
coordinator at Washington State last season. With Austin Aune gone, ULM
transfer Chandler Rogers will probably get the first crack at running the new
offense. Morris is an Air Raid disciple, having played under Mike Leach at
9/16 at Louisiana Tech -3.5 30
FIELD 2.2 / -0.1
Texas Tech. While Wazzu had a good season overall last year, the Cougars only
9/30 ABILENE CHRISTIAN -19.5 19.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
finished 86th in yards per play with 5.41. 10/7 at Navy 3 37
10/14 TEMPLE -5.5 33.5
North Texas really spread the ball around last season. Three different running
backs had at least 100 carries, and all of them are back, while the receiver
corps lost 11 touchdowns from Jyaire Shorter and three of the top four in
10/21 at Tulane
10/28 MEMPHIS
16
5.5
49
44.5
2023 ODDS
yardage. RB Ayo Adeyi is only 5-7, but he had 7.2 yards per carry last season 11/4 TX-SAN ANTONIO 6 44.5
working in concert with Ikaika Ragsdale (5.3 YPC) and Oscar Adaway (4.9 ODDS TO WIN
11/10 at SMU 12 45
YPC). In the era of the transfer portal, it surprises me that all three backs 25-1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
stayed, leading me to believe that maybe Morris isn’t going to abandon the 11/18 at Tulsa -3 31.5
run, given that it fits his current personnel. 11/25 UAB -3.5 35

DEFENSE
In looking at the defense, I would hope that UNT is willing to run the rock. The
ODDS TO WIN
Mean Green defense was objectively bad, allowing 6.1 yards per play and 31.7 RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 3000-1
15
NATIONAL

STARTERS
points per game. While those numbers don’t seem all that awful, UNLV racked CHAMPIONSHIP
up 576 yards of offense, and all but one Conference USA team (FIU) had well DEFENSE: 7
over 400 yards against them. Even without Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF, the
AAC is a much deeper, more explosive offensive conference than C-USA.

Three of the top four tacklers are gone on defense, including KD Davis and
Larry Nixon, who each eclipsed 100 stops. Top sack man Mazin Richards (7.5)
and top defensive back Ridge Texada (15 pass breakups) are the anchors of
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-7, ATS: 8-6, O/U: 9-5
Matt Caponi’s unit, as he takes the DC role for the first time after coaching STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
defensive backs at Iowa State. It sure looks like the UNT defense would Points Per Game 31.8 31 32.1 107 8/27 at UTEP (-1) 31-13 W W
welcome some ball control. 14.1 64 14.3 63
Yards Per Point 9/3 SMU (9.5) 10-48 L L
Plays Per Game 69.7 75 9/10 TEXAS SOUTHERN (-38.5) 59-27 W L
OUTLOOK
The Mean Green have an early bye week and a rough month of November Time of Possession 27:21 118 9/17 at Unlv (2.5) 27-58 L L
with UTSA, SMU on a short week, Tulsa with a first-year head coach who could 3rd Down Conv. % 42.8% 33 46.0% 120 9/24 at Memphis (13) 34-44 L W
have a much-improved team by then, and UAB. If things come together quickly Total Yards Per Game 450.6 25 460.2 122 10/1 FLA ATLANTIC (3) 45-28 W W
for Morris’s bunch, the first part of the schedule features winnable games, Yards Per Play 6.5 15 6 109 10/15 LOUISIANA TECH (-6.5) 47-27 W W
but if not, this looks like a number that they’ll chase most of the season. The Rush Attempts Per Game 37.5 53 10/22 at Tx-San Antonio (10) 27-31 L W
win total is 6.5 with Under juice, and my projection is 6.32, with that weak Rush Yards Per Game 188.5 33 196.4 110 10/29 at W Kentucky (10) 40-13 W W
schedule doing some heavy lifting.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 27 4.9 108 11/5 FLA INTERNATIONAL (-21.5) 52-14 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 31.3 71 11/12 at UAB (6.5) 21-41 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 56.0% 105 63.3% 101 11/26 RICE (-14) 21-17 W L

UNDER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 262.2 36 263.8 103 12/2 at Tx-San Antonio (8) 27-48 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.4 14 7.5 83 12/17 vs. Boise St (12.5) 32-35 L W
Turnovers 1.6 92 1.1 110

46
 RICE HEAD COACH: MIKE BLOOMGREN (6TH)
OWLS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MARQUES TUIASOSOPO
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRIAN SMITH

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #102 OF 133

Hooter is no longer the only Owl mascot in the AAC. He has been joined by
Sammy, who is the mascot of the Rice Owls. Temple actually has a live mascot
named Stella, but Rice only has a student dressed up in costume. In any event,
Rice moves from Conference USA to the AAC and does so with a very interesting
POWER RATING 33 CONFERENCE RANK: #11 OF 14

name at the quarterback position.

2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
Former Stanford OC Mike Bloomgren hasn’t had a lot to work with at QB in 9/2 at Texas 32.5 62.5
SCHEDULE 37.13
his five years with Rice, but he might this season with JT Daniels. Daniels has
9/9 HOUSTON 8.5 43.5
STRENGTH #75 TOUGHEST OF 133
never really found a home in college football, bouncing from USC to Georgia to
FIELD 2.4 / -0.1
West Virginia and now Rice. The sixth-year senior came out of Mater Dei High 9/16 TEXAS SOUTHERN -26 10
School as a five-star recruit and has not lived up to the billing, but this is about 9/23 at South Florida 0.5 31.5
as low-stress of an environment as possible.
9/30 EAST CAROLINA 1 36
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Daniels has a career 45/25 TD/INT ratio with 6,947 passing yards. That would 10/7 CONNECTICUT -4 32
rank second all-time at Rice, so this has never really been a school with a 10/19 at Tulsa 0.5 31.5
lot of upside at the QB position. It has been a long, slow rebuild at Rice, as
Bloomgren is just 16-39 overall, but the offense surpassed 25 points per game 10/28 TULANE 13.5 49
2023 ODDS
for the first time in his tenure, and 5.6 yards per play represented a team-best 11/4 SMU 10 45
during this tenure. Leading rusher Cameron Montgomery is gone, but the top 11/11 at TX-San Antonio 14.5 44.5 ODDS TO WIN
two receivers are back, and Bloomgren has options at RB.
11/18 at Charlotte -6 25
70-1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC

DEFENSE 11/25 FLA ATLANTIC 4 39.5

While the offense showed signs of life, the defense continued to play poorly.
Bloomgren took over in 2018, and the defense has allowed at least six
yards per play in four of those five seasons and all four non-COVID seasons.
ODDS TO WIN
Defensive coordinator Brian Smith still has his job, but one would think that RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 3000-1
14
NATIONAL

STARTERS
seat is getting a little warmer by the day. Rice just doesn’t generate enough of CHAMPIONSHIP
a pass rush and finished -13 in turnover margin last season. DEFENSE: 7

This has also been one of the worst special teams units in the nation the last
two seasons, putting even more pressure on the defense to perform. The
special teams coordinator position was filled by a new hire in Pete Alamar, who
comes from Stanford. The step up in class to the AAC profiles to be a problem
for Rice, as they’ve had major issues stopping the run the last two seasons.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-8, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 9-4
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 23 91 36.2 121 9/3 at USC (32.5) 14-66 L L
Rice will only leave the state of Texas once in the first five weeks of the season, 15.9 105 11.1 130
Yards Per Point 9/10 MCNEESE ST (-7) 52-10 W W
with the conference opener against USF. They draw former AAC member
Plays Per Game 68.6 87 9/17 LA LAFAYETTE (12.5) 33-21 W W
Houston in nonconference action, along with Texas and Texas Southern. The
worst part about the schedule for Rice is that the home games are Houston, Time of Possession 32:22 15 9/24 at Houston (17.5) 27-34 L W
Texas Southern, East Carolina, UConn, Tulane, SMU, and FAU, so I only have 3rd Down Conv. % 38.9% 60 43.0% 104 10/1 UAB (10.5) 28-24 W W
them down for 4.34 wins and only favored in four games, with one by a Total Yards Per Game 364.8 81 401.4 80 10/15 at Fla Atlantic (4.5) 14-17 L W
half-point. Yards Per Play 5.3 72 6.5 123 10/22 at Louisiana Tech (-2.5) 42-41 W L
Rush Attempts Per Game 34.7 80 10/29 CHARLOTTE (-15) 23-56 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 135.7 85 183 102 11/3 UTEP (-3.5) 37-30 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.9 79 5.4 123 11/12 at W Kentucky (13.5) 10-45 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 31 75 11/19 TX-SAN ANTONIO (14) 7-41 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 57.0% 97 62.7% 96 11/26 at North Texas (14) 17-21 L W

UNDER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 229.2 65 218.4 48 12/17 vs. Southern Miss (6.5) 24-38 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 58 8.1 111
Turnovers 2.7 131 1.1 108

47
 SMU HEAD COACH: RHETT LASHLEE (2ND)
MUSTANGS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CASEY WOODS
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SCOTT SYMONS

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #57 OF 133

The SMU Mustangs actually beat two of the three teams that moved on to the
Big 12 and nearly beat Cincinnati as well in a 29-27 loss to the Bearcats. What
makes that nugget more interesting is that SMU was only 5-3 in conference
play last season. The new-look AAC should help teams like the Mustangs, but
POWER RATING 45 CONFERENCE RANK: #2 OF 14

that is no sure thing with some roster turnover and a second-year head coach
with a lot of questions. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/2 LOUISIANA TECH -18.5 30
SCHEDULE 35.43
Preston Stone takes over for Tanner Mordecai, as head coach Rhett Lashlee’s
9/9 at Oklahoma 15 57.5
STRENGTH #89 TOUGHEST OF 133
offense will have a different look with a less proven QB. In two seasons with
the program, Stone only has 55 pass attempts, while Mordecai left as the
third-leading passer in program history. The QB position isn’t the only one with
9/16 PRAIRIE VIEW -35.5 12.5
FIELD 3.2 / 0.2
turnover, as WR Rashee Rice left for the NFL after having 96 catches for 1,355
9/23 at TCU 10 53
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
yards last season. No other receiver caught more than 37 balls or had more 9/30 CHARLOTTE -23.5 25
than 588 yards. 10/12 at East Carolina -6.5 36

2023 ODDS
10/20 at Temple -9 33.5
The Mustangs were 12th in red zone TD% last season, a number sure to go
down with the inexperience and drop-off from Mordecai to Stone. The running 10/28 TULSA -16.5 31.5
game might get a boost from Jaylan Knighton, who was at Miami (FL) 11/4 at Rice -10 33
when Lashlee was the offensive coordinator from 2020-21. Second-year OC
+400
11/10 NORTH TEXAS -12 36.5 ODDS TO WIN
Casey Woods is also emerging as a play-caller, and Lashlee has plenty of OC AMERICAN ATHLETIC
experience, so the Mustangs could wind up with another solid offense. 11/18 at Memphis 2.5 44.5
11/25 NAVY -11 37
DEFENSE
Any drop-off on offense is sure to hurt the defense. This unit allowed 33.8
points and six yards per play, including 4.9 yards per carry. The Mustangs were
ODDS TO WIN
tied for the eighth-most plays of 20+ yards allowed, so they gave up gains in RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 1000-1
16
NATIONAL

STARTERS
chunks and lost last season’s top four tacklers. Of course, with a bad defense CHAMPIONSHIP
and an active offseason in the transfer portal, maybe that’s a good thing. DEFENSE: 8

SMU gained 467 yards per game in AAC play, yet they got outgained on a per-
game basis. The Mustangs also gave up nearly 40 points per game but gave up
41 to UCF and 63 to Houston, who are both in the Big 12 now. Second-year DC
Scott Symons got a huge effort against a depleted BYU team in the New Mexico
Bowl, so maybe that was something to build on over the spring and summer.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 5-8, O/U: 5-8
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 36.6 10 35.3 120 9/3 at North Texas (-9.5) 48-10 W W
The schedule is rather kind to SMU, as they’ll avoid UTSA and Tulane, which 13 22 12.7 114
Yards Per Point 9/10 LAMAR (-48.5) 45-16 W L
makes them an interesting potential No. 2 seed in the conference. It will be
Plays Per Game 79.9 4 9/17 at Maryland (2.5) 27-34 L L
all about how the transfers come together, especially the ones from Power
Five schools looking for a chance. Most of the transfers came in on defense, Time of Possession 28:09 110 9/24 TCU (2.5) 34-42 L L
which could help Stone and the offense from a field position standpoint. 3rd Down Conv. % 47.1% 14 40.7% 83 10/5 at UCF (3) 19-41 L L
My projections have SMU for 8.06 wins, so I’m close to the market, which is Total Yards Per Game 474.5 10 447.2 114 10/14 NAVY (-12.5) 40-34 W L
heavily juiced on Over 8. That means a little value on the Under to me. Yards Per Play 5.9 34 6.1 115 10/22 CINCINNATI (3.5) 27-29 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 38.5 45 10/29 at Tulsa (-1.5) 45-34 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 151.8 63 212.8 123 11/5 HOUSTON (-3.5) 77-63 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.9 77 5.3 121 11/12 at South Florida (-17.5) 41-23 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 39.8 13 11/17 at Tulane (3.5) 24-59 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 65.2% 20 58.5% 38 11/26 MEMPHIS (-4.5) 34-31 W L

UNDER 8
Passing Yards Per Game 322.7 6 234.4 75 12/17 vs. BYU (-4.5) 23-24 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.1 28 7.7 97
Turnovers 1.4 59 1.3 74

48
 SOUTH FLORIDA HEAD COACH: ALEX GOLESH (1ST)
BULLS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOEL GORDON / MATT MERRITT
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TODD ORLANDO

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #112 OF 133

The worst defense in college football resided in Tampa last season. The South
Florida Bulls were the only FBS team to give up over 40 points per game. Head
coach Jeff Scott didn’t last the season, as USF comes into 2023 with four wins
in the last three seasons. This is a massive rebuilding job for first-time head
POWER RATING 31.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #13 OF 14

coach Alex Golesh, who looks to play fast on offense and score enough to
overcome the defense. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/2 at W Kentucky 12 40.5
SCHEDULE 38.05
So, that doesn’t sound like a great plan, does it? The Bulls did score 28 points
9/9 FLORIDA AM -15.5 17.5
STRENGTH #72 TOUGHEST OF 133
per game last season with 6.1 yards per play. Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanon
FIELD 1.9 / -0.4
wasn’t a huge part of the equation, as he only started the first seven games 9/16 ALABAMA 34.5 67.5
due to injury. Bohanon’s job is not safe this season with redshirt freshman 9/23 RICE -0.5 33
Byrum Brown and a couple of transfers in the QB room, but whoever wins the
9/30 at Navy 8.5 37
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
job will run the Tennessee offense that Golesh ran under Josh Heupel, first at
UCF and then in Knoxville. 10/7 at UAB 6.5 35
10/14 FLA ATLANTIC 6 39.5
Through it all last season, USF nearly had a 1,200-yard rusher in Brian Battie,
but he’s gone. Four of the top five receivers, including Battie, are also gone. 10/21 at Connecticut 3.5 32
2023 ODDS
This will be a fast-paced but inefficient offense. Golesh will call his own plays 11/4 at Memphis 16.5 44.5
and probably go with the veteran Bohanon to start, especially for his running 11/11 TEMPLE -0.5 33.5 ODDS TO WIN
ability, but the keys to the car have to go to a younger player at some point.
11/17 at TX-San Antonio 16.5 44.5
50-1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC

DEFENSE 11/25 CHARLOTTE -8.5 25

The idea of playing fast with this defense is terrifying. USF does return nine
starters, but the Bulls gave up 41.2 points per game and 7.4 yards per play.
They were the worst pass defense in the nation, and Louisiana Tech barely
ODDS TO WIN
edged them out for the worst run defense. Longtime defensive coordinator RETURNING OFFENSE: 4 QB 3000-1
13
NATIONAL

STARTERS
Todd Orlando is tasked with converting this unit into something more than a CHAMPIONSHIP
bunch of traffic cones. DEFENSE: 9

Considering that USF has had 30 sacks total over the last 33 games, a little
more pressure on the QB would go a long way. Three of the AAC’s stronger
rosters are gone, but I’m not sure how much the Conference USA squads will
help with a defense this bad. USF’s defensive numbers could look really awful
for a long time going up against Austin Reed and Western Kentucky in Week 1
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 1-11, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 9-3
followed by a home game against Alabama in Week 3. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 26.7 67 43.1 130 9/3 BYU (11.5) 21-50 L L
OUTLOOK 14.6 76 12.2 119
Yards Per Point 9/10 HOWARD (-39.5) 42-20 W L
Not all rebuilding jobs are created equal. Some are like making renovations
Plays Per Game 65.9 111 9/17 at Florida (23) 28-31 L W
to a home with good bones. This is like trying to reconstruct something blown
apart by an EF-5 tornado. It feels like an eternity ago that Willie Taggart and Time of Possession 30:14 57 9/24 at Louisville (16) 3-41 L L
Charlie Strong had back-to-back double-digit winning seasons in 2016 and ‘17. 3rd Down Conv. % 39.9% 51 50.0% 127 10/1 EAST CAROLINA (9.5) 28-48 L L
USF has eight wins in the last four seasons combined. If this offense shows Total Yards Per Game 389.1 61 526.1 131 10/8 at Cincinnati (27) 24-28 L W
any shred of competence at a fast tempo, sportsbooks won’t be able to set Yards Per Play 5.9 38 7.6 131 10/15 TULANE (12) 31-45 L L
totals high enough on this team. Incredibly, the win total here is 4, but my Rush Attempts Per Game 37.5 52 10/29 at Houston (17.5) 27-42 L W
projections are for 3.41 wins, with USF favored only twice. Rush Yards Per Game 198.5 22 241.2 129 11/5 at Temple (-3.5) 28-54 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.3 11 6.4 131 11/12 SMU (17.5) 23-41 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 27.1 108 11/18 at Tulsa (13.5) 42-48 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 57.4% 93 73.1% 131 11/26 UCF (19.5) 39-46 L W

UNDER 4
Passing Yards Per Game 190.5 107 284.9 126
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7 76 9.3 130
Turnovers 1.7 101 1.1 104

49
 TEMPLE HEAD COACH: STAN DRAYTON (2ND)
OWLS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DANNY LANGSDORF
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: EVERETT WITHERS

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #100 OF 133

The Temple Owls finished with the same 3-9 record that they had in 2021, but
the team showed clear signs of improvement and fell on the wrong side of
luck, losing all four one-score games that they played. With more points per
game, more yards per play, fewer points allowed per game, and more than
POWER RATING 33.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #10 OF 14

double the number of sacks, this just might be a team that you want to bet on
early in the season. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
9/2 AKRON -12.5 24
SCHEDULE 33.88
Stan Drayton was primarily brought in as head coach because of his ability to
recruit the tri-state area in major markets like Philadelphia and the New York/ 9/9 at Rutgers 7 38.5
STRENGTH #106 TOUGHEST OF 133
New Jersey metro area after years of being a successful running backs coach.
It turns out that he might not be a bad head coach either. Temple scored 5.6
more points per game with a way more robust passing attack. The Owls still
9/16 NORFOLK ST
9/23 MIAMI FL
-41.5
13.5
-5.5
49.5
FIELD 2.6 / -0.4
couldn’t run the ball worth a lick with 3.1 yards per carry, but that’s something
9/28 at Tulsa 0.5 31.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
that Drayton should be able to fix over time.
10/7 TX-SAN ANTONIO 9 44.5
EJ Warner (Kurt’s son) started 10 games as a true freshman and finished
10/14 at North Texas 5.5 36.5
with an 18/12 TD/INT ratio, but the Owls only allowed 10 sacks, so quick
decision-making and in-season adjustments really helped the Temple offense. 10/20 SMU 9 45
2023 ODDS
If Warner surpasses 3,000 yards again, he’ll knock on the door of third all-time
in passing yards in just two seasons. He has to replace top target Jose Barbon, 11/4 NAVY 1 37
who had 72 catches for 918 yards, but Colorado State transfer Dante Wright 11/11 at South Florida 0.5 31.5 ODDS TO WIN
and 6-6 QB-turned-WR D’Wan Mathis stand to get a lot of targets.
11/18 at UAB 4.5 35
45-1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC

DEFENSE 11/25 MEMPHIS 8.5 44.5

Not only did the Owls improve on offense, but they shaved over eight points
per game off of their defensive numbers. The Owls still struggled a bit with
the run and allowed 5.6 yards per play, but they went from 17 sacks to 38.
Of course, the numbers are a tad misleading because of stout performances ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 5000-1
16
against Lafayette, Rutgers, and UMass, but the Owls brought in a bunch of NATIONAL
Power Five transfers for this season.
STARTERS DEFENSE: 9
CHAMPIONSHIP

New DC Everett Withers is familiar with many parts of the country from his
time as a coordinator and a head coach, plus he could be a welcomed asset
next to a second-year head coach in Drayton. Five of the top six tacklers are
back, plus sack leader Layton Jordan. Despite the sacks and the QB hurries,
Temple only had six interceptions and finished -11 in turnover margin. Positive 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
regression in that department is another arrow pointing up. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-9, ATS: 8-4, O/U: 6-6
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 21.2 101 30.6 93 9/2 at Duke (9.5) 0-30 L L
Expectations are quite a bit higher here, as Temple’s win total is five with
Yards Per Point 16.5 111 13.6 84 9/10 LAFAYETTE (-14) 30-14 W W
heavy Over juice. The team only has six wins over the last two seasons and
seven if you include a 1-6 showing during the COVID year. The talent level is Plays Per Game 67.6 97 9/17 RUTGERS (18.5) 14-16 L W
much higher here, and this is a really solid coaching staff with a young QB to Time of Possession 26:53 124 9/24 MASSACHUSETTS (-10) 28-0 W W
build around, and the conference is weaker overall with the departures. Temple 3rd Down Conv. % 32.5% 111 38.0% 58 10/1 at Memphis (18.5) 3-24 L L
also has a chance to get 60% of the way to at least a push with Akron, Rutgers, Total Yards Per Game 349.5 94 417.2 95 10/13 at UCF (23.5) 13-70 L L
and Norfolk State in the first three weeks. My projection is for 5.03 wins, but
this team has a lot of positive indicators. Yards Per Play 5.2 84 5.7 89 10/21 TULSA (13.5) 16-27 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 25.3 130 10/29 at Navy (14.5) 20-27 L W
Rush Yards Per Game 76.6 129 208.1 122 11/5 SOUTH FLORIDA (3.5) 54-28 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3 125 4.9 109 11/12 at Houston (20) 36-43 L W
Pass Attempts Per Game 41.5 8 11/19 CINCINNATI (17) 3-23 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 59.3% 78 63.8% 105 11/26 EAST CAROLINA (9.5) 46-49 L W

OVER 5
Passing Yards Per Game 272.9 25 209.1 32
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.6 96 7.4 81
Turnovers 1.8 106 1.1 104

50
 TULANE HEAD COACH: WILLIE FRITZ (8TH)
GREEN WAVE
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SLADE NAGLE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SHIEL WOOD

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #41 OF 133

It was a magical year in New Orleans for the Tulane Green Wave. Not only did
they finish the season ranked in the Top 10 of the AP Poll, but the win over USC
in the Cotton Bowl Classic was the biggest victory in program history. They were
down 45-30 with 4:30 left to cap off the nation’s most impressive turnaround
POWER RATING 49 CONFERENCE RANK: #1 OF 14

from 2-10 to 12-2. With success comes expectations, and Tulane now has those
in the new-look AAC. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/2 S ALABAMA -8.5 44
SCHEDULE 36.25
Star running back Tyjae Spears ran for 1,581 and 19 touchdowns last season,
9/9 OLE MISS 4 56
STRENGTH #88 TOUGHEST OF 133
and he headlines a group of departures that also includes last season’s top two
wide receivers. “Top two receivers” is factually correct, but those two guys had
35 catches for 692 yards and 33 catches for 657 yards. Holdovers Jha’Quan
9/16 at Southern Miss
9/23 NICHOLLS ST
-11
-45
36
7.5
FIELD 3.3 / -0.1
Jackson and Lawrence Keys were each in the 30-reception club, just without the
9/30 UAB -17.5 35
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
same amount of yardage.
10/13 at Memphis -1.5 44.5
The straw that stirred the historic drink is back in QB Michael Pratt, who 10/21 NORTH TEXAS -16 36.5
amassed just shy of 3,500 total yards through the air and on the ground,
along with 37 total touchdowns. Pratt was the team’s second-leading rusher 10/28 at Rice -13.5 33
2023 ODDS
with 478 yards, so the Green Wave will need a feature back to emerge. Four 11/4 at East Carolina -10 36
offensive line starters return, plus the Green Wave plucked Cameron Wire from
+205
11/11 TULSA -20.5 31.5 ODDS TO WIN
nearby LSU, who started 11 games last season. AMERICAN ATHLETIC
11/18 at Fla Atlantic -6.5 39.5
DEFENSE 11/25 TX-SAN ANTONIO -7.5 44.5
The offense did a lot of special things, but it was the defense that allowed
Tulane to soar to new heights. Last year’s group only allowed 22.2 points per
game and just five yards per play. Eight starters are back, but Shiel Wood will
ODDS TO WIN
serve as the new defensive coordinator after coming over from Troy. RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 QB 300-1
14
NATIONAL

Troy was eighth in yards per play allowed last season, so the Tulane defense
may not drop off much, if at all. The Green Wave defense held AAC teams
STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

to under 400 yards per game and just 24 points per game. We’ll see if the
scheme changes make a difference, but the Green Wave allowed the 10th-
fewest plays of 20+ yards, which is a huge attribute in the pass-happy AAC, and
the conference got easier with the departures. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 12-2, ATS: 12-2, O/U: 8-6
OUTLOOK STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Tulane draws a solid South Alabama team and a quality Ole Miss squad in Points Per Game 34.8 19 23.9 39 9/3 MASSACHUSETTS (-28.5) 42-10 W W
consecutive home games to open the season. The AAC schedule isn’t bad, as the 12.4 11 15.9 26
Yards Per Point 9/10 ALCORN ST (-35.5) 52-0 W W
game against UTSA comes at home to end the regular season and may very
Plays Per Game 68.5 91 9/17 at Kansas St (14) 17-10 W W
well be a conference championship game preview. That could be an interesting
swing game for season win total bets if one team is already locked into the Time of Possession 29:13 80 9/24 SOUTHERN MISS (-11.5) 24-27 L L
title game. My numbers are a little lower on Tulane, with a projection of 8.64 3rd Down Conv. % 37.1% 82 38.7% 62 9/30 at Houston (5.5) 27-24 W W
wins, so I lean Under, but it’s hard to bet against Willie Fritz. Total Yards Per Game 432.5 34 379.8 54 10/8 EAST CAROLINA (-3) 24-9 W W
Yards Per Play 6.3 20 5 31 10/15 at South Florida (-12) 45-31 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 39.5 35 10/22 MEMPHIS (-7) 38-28 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 208.3 15 159.5 71 11/5 at Tulsa (-6.5) 27-13 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.3 12 4.1 55 11/12 UCF (-1) 31-38 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 26.8 111 11/17 SMU (-3.5) 59-24 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 62.1% 51 60.6% 67 11/25 at Cincinnati (-1) 27-24 W W

UNDER 9.5
Passing Yards Per Game 224.2 72 220.3 50 12/3 UCF (-3.5) 45-28 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.4 13 6.4 15 1/2 vs. USC (2) 46-45 W W
Turnovers 1.1 22 1.5 59

51
 TULSA HEAD COACH: KEVIN WILSON (1ST)
GOLDEN HURRICANE
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: STEVE SPURRIER JR.
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CHRIS POLIZZI

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #111 OF 133

Even though he resigned from his post at Indiana because of investigations
into the mistreatment of players, new Tulsa head coach Kevin Wilson will get
a second shot. His final year at Indiana in 2016 was marred by the whispers
and the scandals, which came as a shock given the big six-year extension
POWER RATING 31.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #12 OF 14

he signed the previous offseason. He more than landed on his feet as Ohio
State’s offensive coordinator about six weeks later and now gets a team to 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
call his own.
SCHEDULE 36.73
8/31 AK-PINE BLUFF -40.5 -6.5
OFFENSE
9/9 at Washington 29 58
STRENGTH #82 TOUGHEST OF 133
Wilson won’t have the embarrassment of riches he had at Ohio State from a
talent standpoint, but Tulsa has a longstanding history of finding good players,
especially at quarterback and wide receiver. Braylon Braxton played extremely
9/16 OKLAHOMA 24.5 57.5
FIELD 2 / 0.2
well last season during an injury-prone campaign for Davis Brin that saw
9/23 at N Illinois 1.5 31.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
inconsistent work for each guy. Braxton was in the transfer portal after Philip 9/28 TEMPLE -0.5 33.5
Montgomery’s dismissal, but Wilson convinced him to stay, and he’ll be the 10/7 at Fla Atlantic 11 39.5
unquestioned starter with no experience behind him.

Braxton had a 10/2 TD/INT ratio, but he’ll work with a rebuilt receiving
10/19 RICE
10/28 at SMU
-0.5
16.5
33
45
2023 ODDS
corps. All-time program leader Keylon Stokes took 76 catches and 1,224 11/4 CHARLOTTE -8.5 25
yards with him on the way out, and second-leading receiver JuanCarlos ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Tulane 20.5 49
Santana had nearly 400 more yards than the next guy on the list. Along 55-1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
with the loss of top running back Deneric Prince, Wilson has his work cut out 11/18 NORTH TEXAS 3 36.5
for him to find skill guys. 11/25 at East Carolina 7 36

DEFENSE
As is often the case in the AAC, Tulsa’s defensive numbers were bad. What’s
ODDS TO WIN
crazy is that this was actually a really good defense in 2020 and 2021 by RETURNING OFFENSE: 4 3000-1
9
NATIONAL

STARTERS
conference standards, but it all fell apart last season with 33.1 points per CHAMPIONSHIP
game allowed and 5.9 yards per play. Tulsa was destroyed in the trenches DEFENSE: 5
and gave up 4.9 yards per carry and over 200 yards per game for the first
time since 2018.

Six of the seven leading tacklers are gone, but this was a defense that only
mustered 16 sacks. Tulsa was actually -29 in sack margin, as the offensive line
and a hampered Brin struggled together, putting the defense in some tough
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 3-8, O/U: 7-5
spots. Tulsa was also a terrible group on special teams. Chris Polizzi was the STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
defensive coordinator for UT-Martin the last three seasons and wasn’t hired Points Per Game 28.5 55 34.5 117 9/3 at Wyoming (-7) 37-40 L L
until May, so he got a late start and basically no time to recruit. 13.8 48 12.3 116
Yards Per Point 9/10 N ILLINOIS (-6.5) 38-35 W L
Plays Per Game 73.5 36 9/17 JACKSONVILLE ST (-12.5) 54-17 W W
OUTLOOK
Tulsa rosters generally have something to fall back on, especially in terms Time of Possession 28:14 104 9/24 at Ole Miss (21) 27-35 L W
of skill-position guys. They don’t have that for this season. Braxton might be 3rd Down Conv. % 38.2% 71 37.4% 51 10/1 CINCINNATI (10) 21-31 L T
a star in the making, but with a bad offensive line and nobody to throw to, Total Yards Per Game 392.8 55 424.7 103 10/8 at Navy (-4.5) 21-51 L L
it looks like a true rebuilding year for the 61-year-old Wilson. However, the Yards Per Play 5.3 70 5.9 106 10/21 at Temple (-13.5) 27-16 W L
schedule is super friendly, as the Golden Hurricane avoid UTSA and have some Rush Attempts Per Game 35.7 73 10/29 SMU (1.5) 34-45 L L
winnable home games speckled throughout the slate. As lackluster as this Rush Yards Per Game 136.4 83 207.5 121 11/5 TULANE (6.5) 13-27 L L
roster is, my projections are for 5.09 wins, and their market win total is 4.5.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.8 82 5 113 11/10 at Memphis (6.5) 10-26 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 33.9 48 11/18 SOUTH FLORIDA (-13.5) 48-42 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 56.0% 104 58.6% 40 11/26 at Houston (13) 37-30 W W

OVER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 256.5 42 217.2 46
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.6 52 7.4 80
Turnovers 1.6 93 1.2 94

52
 UTSA HEAD COACH: JEFF TRAYLOR (4TH)
ROADRUNNERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JUSTIN BURKE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JESS LOEPP

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #59 OF 133

UTSA has gone into the last two bowl seasons as a Top 25 team, only to be
knocked out of the rankings with losses to San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl
and Troy in the Cure Bowl. With a nonconference schedule that features road
trips to former AAC member Houston and Tennessee and one in conference
POWER RATING 44.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #3 OF 14

against Tulane, a third straight double-digit season is a big ask, but the win
total line is only 7.5. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
9/2 at Houston 0.5 43.5
SCHEDULE 37.63
Fortunately for the Roadrunners, QB Frank Harris is back with 74 career
touchdown passes in his three seasons as the starter. Top receiver Zakhari 9/9 TEXAS ST UNIV -20.5 27.5
STRENGTH #73 TOUGHEST OF 133
Franklin is gone, taking 15 of the team’s 33 receiving touchdowns with him,
but Joshua Cephus was a catch or two away from 1,000 yards, and De’Corian
Clark returns from a season-ending injury suffered when he led the team in
9/15 ARMY -12 36
FIELD 3.1 / 0.4
yards.
9/23 at Tennessee
10/7 at Temple
14.5
-9
56.5
33.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

UTSA scored 36.8 points per game last season and racked up 6.37 yards 10/14 UAB -12.5 35
per play, which ranked 26th nationally. They were one of 12 teams with
2023 ODDS
over 4,000 passing yards, so having Harris and his cavalcade of wideouts 10/21 at Fla Atlantic -2.5 39.5
back should mean big things for this offense, especially because UCF and 10/28 EAST CAROLINA -11.5 36
Cincinnati had two of the better defenses in the AAC, and they have both
moved on to the Big 12. 11/4 at North Texas -6 36.5

+450
11/11 RICE -14.5 33 ODDS TO WIN
Harris is a mobile guy with 602 rushing yards on 129 carries, while RB AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Kevorian Barnes averaged 6.3 yards per pop while in a timeshare, which could 11/17 SOUTH FLORIDA -16.5 31.5
be the case again with JUCO transfer Robert Henry and Vanderbilt transfer 11/25 at Tulane 7.5 49
Rocko Griffin.

DEFENSE
The UTSA defense finished 65th in yards per play allowed, but they forced ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 1000-1
16
22 takeaways in 14 games. The defense also returns eight starters, including NATIONAL
leading tackler Jamal Ligon at the LB position, but three of the four top
tacklers are gone. Defensive backs Clifford Chattman and Corey Mayfield STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

combined for 26 pass breakups and eight interceptions. Defensive coordinator

Jess Loepp’s specialty is in the secondary, so he should be able to fashion a
good unit, especially with some recruiting success as one of the premier Group
of Five programs in the Lone Star State.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
Top pass rusher Trey Moore is among the guys who are back and will be OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 11-3, ATS: 7-7, O/U: 8-6
expected to shoulder more of the load. Moore had eight of the team’s 25 STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
sacks and led the way with nine tackles for loss. Along with the takeaways, Points Per Game 35.6 16 26.1 56 9/3 HOUSTON (3.5) 35-37 L W
UTSA succeeded in the red zone, holding the opposition to a 55.1% TD%, which
Yards Per Point 13.2 30 14.6 55 9/10 at Army (-2) 41-38 W W
ranked 37th in the nation.
Plays Per Game 77.4 12 9/17 at Texas (13.5) 20-41 L L
OUTLOOK Time of Possession 30:19 55 9/24 TEXAS SOUTHERN (-42) 52-24 W L
UTSA seems well-equipped to move up to the AAC, especially with the teams 3rd Down Conv. % 50.3% 8 37.2% 50 9/30 at Middle Tenn St (-4) 45-30 W W
that left. The Roadrunners have those aforementioned road games and also Total Yards Per Game 470.5 14 381.6 58 10/8 W KENTUCKY (-6) 31-28 W L
play FAU on the road, but they avoid Memphis and SMU, so this should be a
top contender to play in the AAC Championship Game and go Over 7.5 wins. My Yards Per Play 6.1 25 5.4 58 10/14 at Fla International (-33) 30-10 W L
projections have UTSA down for 8.95 wins, so I really like this team. Rush Attempts Per Game 39.5 35 10/22 NORTH TEXAS (-10) 31-27 W L
Rush Yards Per Game 180.5 42 137.1 41 11/5 at UAB (-2.5) 44-38 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.6 47 3.9 42 11/12 LOUISIANA TECH (-17) 51-7 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 35.9 31 11/19 at Rice (-14) 41-7 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 68.1% 7 58.2% 32 11/26 UTEP (-16.5) 34-31 W L

OVER 7.5
Passing Yards Per Game 289.9 14 244.5 89 12/2 NORTH TEXAS (-8) 48-27 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.1 31 7.2 65 12/16 vs. Troy (-3) 12-18 L L
Turnovers 1.3 45 1.5 50

53
 UAB HEAD COACH: TRENT DILFER (1ST)
BLAZERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ALEX MORTENSEN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SIONE TA’UFO’OU

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #94 OF 133

Between the transfer portal and the coaching carousel, it is not hard to find
teams that look nothing like their previous iterations in college football. But
UAB may take it to another level. After stumbling through a 7-6 season under
Bryant Vincent when Bill Clark retired for medical reasons, former NFL QB and
POWER RATING 35 CONFERENCE RANK: #9 OF 14

analyst Trent Dilfer has taken over the program. Despite pleas from the players
to hire Vincent full-time, a new era of UAB football has arrived. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 8/31 N CAROLINA A&T -24.5 13
SCHEDULE 39.36
Dilfer coming in is far from the only shake-up. There are only seven returning
9/9 at Ga Southern 1.5 33
STRENGTH #71 TOUGHEST OF 133
starters on this roster, and a Group of Five powerhouse may be no more.
FIELD 2.5 / 0
DeWayne McBride was second in the nation in rushing yards and first in yards 9/16 LA LAFAYETTE 1.5 38.5
per game while also racking up 19 touchdowns. He was taken in the seventh 9/23 at Georgia 38 70.5
round of the NFL Draft. Starting QB Dylan Hopkins transferred out, leaving
9/30 at Tulane 17.5 49
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
behind Jacob Zeno, who made two starts. Louisiana Tech transfer Landry Lyddy
made four starts as a true freshman, and his hat is in the mix as well. 10/7 SOUTH FLORIDA -6.5 31.5
10/14 at TX-San Antonio 12.5 44.5
But this offense will take a huge step back without McBride. Top wide receiver
Trea Shropshire also left after averaging 22.5 yards per reception. Dilfer 10/21 MEMPHIS 7 44.5
2023 ODDS
makes the leap from Lipscomb Academy in Tennessee, where he won back-to- 11/4 FLA ATLANTIC 2 39.5
back high school state titles. ESPN NFL analyst Chris Mortenson’s son, Alex, is 11/11 at Navy 4.5 37 ODDS TO WIN
a first-time offensive coordinator. It would appear that skepticism is quite high
11/18 TEMPLE -4.5 33.5
45-1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
for this group.
11/25 at North Texas 3.5 36.5
DEFENSE
Meanwhile, the UAB defense under Sione Ta’ufo’ou is also in question.
Ta’ufo’ou was also at Lipscomb Academy, and he only has four returning
ODDS TO WIN
starters to work with. The top four tacklers and eight of the top 10 from last RETURNING OFFENSE: 3 2000-1
7
NATIONAL

STARTERS
season are all gone, including top CB Starling Thomas, who had 15 pass CHAMPIONSHIP
breakups. Last year’s group had its worst season stopping the run since 2017, DEFENSE: 4
so maybe the losses aren’t as big of a deal, but this is still a rebuild with new
systems, schemes, and coaching staff.

It may help that all-name-team member DT Fish McWilliams decided to stick

around as the unquestioned leader of the defense. It may also help to see
something different and innovative from Ta’ufo’ou, whose defense allowed 5.5
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 4-9, O/U: 6-7
points per game last season, and he’s also an Elite 11 QB Coach, so he should STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
be able to pick up on some film tendencies of the AAC QBs. Points Per Game 27.7 61 25.1 49 9/1 ALABAMA A&M (-40.5) 59-0 W W
Yards Per Point 15.7 98 14.8 51 9/10 at Liberty (-6) 14-21 L L
OUTLOOK
Plays Per Game 67 100 9/17 GA SOUTHERN (-12) 35-21 W W
It might be beneficial that UAB only has seven returning starters. This program
had deep bonds to Clark and Vincent, especially Clark, who oversaw the return Time of Possession 32:04 19 10/1 at Rice (-10.5) 24-28 L L
to FBS in 2017 and showed his loyalty with words and actions. Dilfer and his 3rd Down Conv. % 45.2% 25 41.4% 89 10/8 MIDDLE TENN ST (-10) 41-14 W W
staff have more of a blank slate to work with here and players that have been Total Yards Per Game 434.6 31 371.8 47 10/15 CHARLOTTE (-22.5) 34-20 W L
blocked by entrenched veterans. On the other hand, the leap to college football Yards Per Play 6.5 14 5.4 59 10/21 at W Kentucky (1) 17-20 L L
is a big one, especially with limited playing experience on the roster. I only Rush Attempts Per Game 40.9 22 10/29 at Fla Atlantic (-5) 17-24 L L
have UAB down for 4.12 wins with a step up in conference, class, and limited Rush Yards Per Game 235.7 8 172 87 11/5 TX-SAN ANTONIO (2.5) 38-44 L L
returning production.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.8 2 4.8 103 11/12 NORTH TEXAS (-6.5) 41-21 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 24.5 121 11/19 at LSU (15) 10-41 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 59.9% 74 57.9% 29 11/26 at Louisiana Tech (-18) 37-27 W L

UNDER 5
Passing Yards Per Game 198.9 101 199.8 24 12/16 vs. Miami Ohio (-11) 24-20 W L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.1 27 6.4 20
Turnovers 1.4 59 1.2 100

54
aCC
betting preview
Even in what was a “down year” for the Clemson Tigers, Dabo Swinney’s team still won the ACC Championship. The Tigers absolutely blew out the North
Carolina Tar Heels in the ACC Championship Game, earning a 39-10 victory at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. Quarterback Cade
Klubnik was the MVP for Clemson, as he threw for 279 yards with a touchdown and added 30 yards and a score on the ground.

Klubnik is once again set to be under center for the Tigers, who are the betting favorites to repeat as conference champions. Not only does Swinney’s team
return some of its most talented players, but the program also brings back 15 starters. That’s a lot of production that will be back on the field for Clemson.
However, Florida State is knocking on the door as a contender in this conference. Mike Norvell’s group has a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender in
quarterback Jordan Travis, and he’s surrounded by elite talent all over the field.

North Carolina isn’t a team that can be ignored in this conference either. The Tar Heels bring back quarterback Drake Maye, who is considered a real threat
to be the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Louisville Cardinals are another team that will be hoping to make a splash this year. The Cardinals
have the fourth-best odds to win the ACC this season, which says a lot about how much respect head coach Jeff Brohm has in the college football world.
Brohm did a great job during his time with the Purdue Boilermakers, and he is hoping to bring even more success to Louisville, his alma mater.

Of course, if you’re talking about the ACC, you are almost contractually obligated to mention the Miami Hurricanes. Many people pegged the Hurricanes as
a sleeper pick to do some damage last year, but head coach Mario Cristobal’s first year in Coral Gables didn’t quite live up to the hype. Miami now has the
sixth-best odds of winning the conference, and 2023 will be a prove-it year for the Hurricanes.

2023 PROJECTED STANDINGS (BASED ON STEVE MAKINEN RATINGS)

2023 Schedule Strength All Games Conference Games DraftKings
Team SM PR (Rank) PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's O/U
FLORIDA ST 59.5 44.44 (49) 9.4 2.6 6.4 1.6 10
CLEMSON 59.5 45.01 (41) 9.4 2.6 6.2 1.8 10
NORTH CAROLINA 53.5 43.6 (61) 8.5 3.5 5.4 2.6 8.5
LOUISVILLE 50 40.74 (69) 8.1 3.9 5.4 2.6 8
MIAMI FL 49.5 42.43 (65) 7.3 4.7 4.2 3.8 7.5
NC STATE 48.5 42.98 (62) 7.0 5.0 4.1 3.9 6.5
PITTSBURGH 47.5 44.84 (45) 6.4 5.6 4.1 3.9 7
SYRACUSE 47 41.23 (67) 7.1 4.9 3.8 4.2 6.5
WAKE FOREST 45.5 44.27 (52) 6.3 5.7 3.5 4.5 6
DUKE 47.5 44.84 (43) 6.2 5.8 3.3 4.7 6.5
VIRGINIA 39 45.16 (39) 4.3 7.7 2.7 5.3 3.5
BOSTON COLLEGE 38.5 41.22 (68) 5.2 6.8 2.4 5.6 5.5
VIRGINIA TECH 39.5 44.26 (53) 4.6 7.4 2.4 5.6 5.5
GEORGIA TECH 39 45.33 (37) 4.0 8.0 2.1 5.9 4.5

55
 BOSTON COLLEGE HEAD COACH: JEFF HAFLEY (4TH)
EAGLES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: STEVE SHIMKO
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: AAZAAR ABDUL-RAHIM / SEAN DUGGAN

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #83 OF 133

The Boston College Eagles were a miserable 3-9 in 2022, and that puts them
at 15-20 since Jeff Hafley became the head coach of the program. People
were excited about the hiring when the former Ohio State Buckeyes defensive
coordinator arrived in Chestnut Hill, but Hafley is likely entering a make-or-
POWER RATING 38.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #14 OF 14

break year. Boston College will be without quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who
transferred to play for Pittsburgh, and wide receiver Zay Flowers, who the 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Baltimore Ravens drafted with the 22nd pick in the NFL Draft. Despite that,
there is some returning talent in place, so Hafley’s overhauled coaching staff 9/2 N ILLINOIS -9.5 31.5
SCHEDULE 41.22
at least has something to work with. But it’s hard to find any reasons to believe
9/9 HOLY CROSS -12.5 28
STRENGTH #68 TOUGHEST OF 133
that this will be anything but a bottom dweller in the ACC this season.

OFFENSE
9/16 FLORIDA ST
9/23 at Louisville
18.5
15
59.5
50
FIELD 2.3 / -0.1
It’ll be interesting to see how the Eagles do without two key members of last
9/30 VIRGINIA -2 39
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
year’s offense, but the team does return nine offensive starters. One of them is
running back Pat Garwo III, who rushed for 1,045 yards with seven touchdowns 10/7 at Army 0 36
two years ago. Garwo couldn’t replicate those numbers in 2022, but a lot of 10/21 at Georgia Tech 2 39
that had to do with him splitting touches with other capable backs. However,
it’s still pretty hard to get excited about this offense. 10/28 CONNECTICUT -9 32
2023 ODDS
11/3 at Syracuse 11 47
Quarterback Emmett Morehead did show some flashes in the snaps he got in ODDS TO WIN
11/11 VIRGINIA TECH -1.5 39.5
2022, but this team is really going to miss Flowers’ game-breaking ability at
11/16 at Pittsburgh 11.5 47.5
150-1 ACC
the receiver position. And this was already an offense that averaged the fewest
yards per game of any team in the ACC last season. It’s hard to imagine things 11/24 MIAMI FL 9 49.5
getting prettier with a first-round NFL talent now out the door. The best-case
scenario for Boston College is that Morehead continues to show promise as a
passer. He has a lot of potential.
ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 1000-1
15
NATIONAL

STARTERS
DEFENSE CHAMPIONSHIP
Considering Hafley has a defensive background, it’s unacceptable that his DEFENSE: 6
Eagles gave up 30.3 points per game last season. The good news is that Boston
College’s defensive front is expected to be a lot better this season. That would
be a great start for the Eagles, as they couldn’t stop the run in 2022.

Boston College also has a nice collection of talent in the secondary, as well as
the linebacking corps. That said, it wouldn’t be surprising if this were more of a
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-9, ATS: 4-8, O/U: 7-5
middle-of-the-pack unit in 2023. The presence of Donovan Ezeiruaku is big for STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
this group. Last season, Ezeiruaku had 8.5 sacks for this defense. If the Eagles Points Per Game 15.9 123 31.5 105 9/3 RUTGERS (-9) 21-22 L L
improve on this side of the ball, he’ll have a lot to do with it. 18.9 123 12 123
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Virginia Tech (3) 10-27 L L
Plays Per Game 70.5 63 9/17 MAINE (-31.5) 38-17 W L
OUTLOOK
When looking at the schedule, it’s hard to pinpoint five games the Eagles Time of Possession 28:44 92 9/24 at Florida St (18.5) 14-44 L L
should win. With that said, the Under 5.5 is likely the best way to go when 3rd Down Conv. % 31.9% 115 36.7% 49 10/1 LOUISVILLE (13.5) 34-33 W W
betting on Boston College before the season. However, it wouldn’t be too Total Yards Per Game 300.9 119 379.2 53 10/8 CLEMSON (20.5) 3-31 L L
surprising if the Eagles had a winning against-the-spread record this year. This Yards Per Play 4.3 124 5.5 70 10/22 at Wake Forest (20) 15-43 L L
group should be more competitive than it was in 2022, and it wouldn’t be Rush Attempts Per Game 29.9 121 10/29 at Connecticut (-8) 3-13 L L
shocking if the team returns to bowl eligibility in 2024. Rush Yards Per Game 60.5 131 175.1 93 11/4 DUKE (11.5) 31-38 L W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 2 131 4.5 94 11/12 at Nc State (18) 21-20 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 36.6 27 11/19 at Notre Dame (20) 0-44 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 58.8% 82 60.5% 66 11/26 SYRACUSE (10.5) 23-32 L W

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 240.5 53 204.1 27
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.6 97 7.4 77
Turnovers 2.4 128 1 113

56
 CLEMSON HEAD COACH: DABO SWINNEY (16TH)
TIGERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: GARRETT RILEY
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MICKEY CONN / WES GOODWIN

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #11 OF 133

It says a lot about what Dabo Swinney has built that people view the last two
seasons as failures. This team went 10-3 in 2021 and followed it up by going
11-3 last season. But this Clemson Tigers program now plays for nothing but
national championships, so that is the measuring stick. And this team made it
POWER RATING 59.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #2 OF 14

to six straight College Football Playoffs before missing out the last two years.
2023 SCHEDULE
This season, the Tigers are listed at +1800 to win a national title. Only DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
six teams have better odds than that, so it’s not outrageous to think that
9/4 at Duke -10.5 47.5
SCHEDULE 45.01
quarterback Cade Klubnik will have this team competing for the sport’s
ultimate prize. But Clemson has a very tough regular season schedule this 9/9 CHARLESTON SOUT -53 9
STRENGTH #41 TOUGHEST OF 133
year, so that will really complicate things. It also doesn’t help that Florida State
looks ready to start crashing the party in the conference. 9/16 FLA ATLANTIC -22.5 39.5
FIELD 2.5 / 0.4
OFFENSE
9/23 FLORIDA ST
9/30 at Syracuse
-2.5
-10.5
59.5
47
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Klubnik is viewed as a future Heisman Trophy winner, as he’s a former top
recruit that can dazzle with both his arm and his legs. Klubnik has already had 10/7 WAKE FOREST -16.5 45.5
some chances to show the world what he can do, and his performance against
2023 ODDS
North Carolina in last year’s ACC Championship Game said a lot about his 10/21 at Miami FL -8.5 49.5
ability. Klubnik was the MVP of that game and will be expected to turn in an 10/28 at NC State -8.5 48.5
entire season’s worth of that type of production in 2023.
11/4 NOTRE DAME -3 58.5

+145
One thing working in his favor is that Clemson brought in former TCU 11/11 GEORGIA TECH -23.5 39 ODDS TO WIN
offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to change up this offense. Things have ACC
been stale with the Tigers on this side of the ball, but Riley should get the 11/18 NORTH CAROLINA -8.5 53.5
best out of everybody. Look for Will Shipley to do his part in helping Klubnik 11/25 at South Carolina -7 50.5
move the ball down the field this year. Shipley rushed for 1,182 yards and 15
touchdowns last season, and he should do more damage in a more creative
offense. Overall, this should be a very explosive group this season, assuming
the offensive line holds up its end of the bargain. ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 18-1
15
NATIONAL
DEFENSE
Clemson had the third-best scoring defense in the conference last year, and STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

eight starters return on that side of the ball. Of course, a program like this one
always loses talent to the NFL, and it’s no different heading into this year. But
the Tigers return a tremendous linebacking duo in Jeremiah Trotter Jr.. and
Barrett Carter, and the team has talent along the defensive line. Clemson is
also expecting a big season out of cornerback Nate Wiggins, which should help 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
the team improve on last year’s mediocre passing defense. If Wiggins helps OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 11-3, ATS: 7-7, O/U: 7-7
stabilize that part of the defense, the Tigers will be tough to score on. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 33.1 24 21.5 20 9/5 vs. Georgia Tech (-24.5) 41-10 W W
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 12.5 14 15.3 39 9/10 FURMAN (-45) 35-12 W L
There’s really no denying that this Clemson team is crazy talented, but the
Tigers have some tough games on the schedule. This team can easily get Plays Per Game 76.4 16 9/17 LOUISIANA TECH (-33.5) 48-20 W L
tripped up in any of its road games against conference opponents, and home Time of Possession 31:39 29 9/24 at Wake Forest (-8) 51-45 W L
games against Florida State and Notre Dame are also very challenging. 3rd Down Conv. % 47.5% 10 33.2% 19 10/1 NC STATE (-6.5) 30-20 W W
Clemson also happens to end the regular season with a road game against Total Yards Per Game 412.9 41 330.5 19 10/8 at Boston College (-20.5) 31-3 W W
South Carolina. With so many games that can feasibly go either way, it’s hard
not to love the Under on the Tigers’ win total. Yards Per Play 5.4 61 4.8 17 10/15 at Florida St (-4.5) 34-28 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 39.9 28 10/22 SYRACUSE (-14) 27-21 W L
Rush Yards Per Game 180.8 41 100.9 7 11/5 at Notre Dame (-3.5) 14-35 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.5 50 3.2 7 11/12 LOUISVILLE (-7) 31-16 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 34.4 40 11/19 MIAMI FL (-19) 40-10 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.5% 58 59.8% 53 11/26 SOUTH CAROLINA (-14) 30-31 L L

UNDER 10
Passing Yards Per Game 232.2 61 229.6 65 12/3 vs. North Carolina (-7) 39-10 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.8 86 6.7 32 12/30 vs. Tennessee (-3.5) 14-31 L L
Turnovers 1.5 81 1.5 59

57
 DUKE HEAD COACH: MIKE ELKO (2ND)
BLUE DEVILS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KEVIN JOHNS
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TYLER SANTUCCI

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #46 OF 133

It’s hard to do much better than head coach Mike Elko did in his first year with
the Duke Blue Devils. The former Texas A&M defensive coordinator inherited
a Duke team that went 3-9 in 2021, but the Blue Devils went 9-4 last season.
They also won their Military Bowl matchup with the UCF Knights, earning a
POWER RATING 47.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #8 OF 14

30-13 victory.
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Now, Duke enters this season in the unfamiliar position of having legitimate
expectations. People are excited to see where Elko and quarterback Riley 9/4 CLEMSON 10.5 59.5
SCHEDULE 44.84
Leonard can take this program, but the team’s win total is only 6.5 and you
9/9 LAFAYETTE -45 5
STRENGTH #43 TOUGHEST OF 133
can get plus-money odds if you want to take the Over. So, if the Blue Devils
are going to find a way to match last year’s nine-win season, the oddsmakers
clearly believe that they’ll have their work cut out for them.
9/16 NORTHWESTERN -11.5 38.5
FIELD 2.1 / -0.3
9/23 at Connecticut
9/30 NOTRE DAME
-12.5
9.5
32
58.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
OFFENSE
Duke went from averaging 22.8 points per game in 2021 to 32.8 points per 10/14 NC STATE -1.5 48.5
game in 2022. For the Blue Devils to have another winning season, this unit 10/21 at Florida St 14.5 59.5
will need to be efficient in 2023. And with Leonard back under center, there’s
no reason to believe Duke will slow down soon. Leonard was ridiculous in his 10/28 at Louisville 6 50
2023 ODDS
first year as the Blue Devils starting quarterback, throwing for 2,967 yards 11/2 WAKE FOREST -4 45.5
with 20 touchdowns and only six picks while also adding 699 yards and 13 ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at North Carolina 9 53.5
scores on the ground. He’s a star in the making and is part of a Duke offense
11/18 at Virginia -5 39
40-1 ACC
that brings back a large majority of last year’s starters. This offense can be
scary in 2023, even with teams having more film on the Blue Devils. 11/25 PITTSBURGH -1.5 47.5

DEFENSE
Duke’s defense gave up only 22.8 points per game last season, going from
ODDS TO WIN
miserable in 2021 to rock-solid in 2022. However, things weren’t perfect on RETURNING OFFENSE: 10 QB 300-1
18
NATIONAL

STARTERS
that side of the ball. The Blue Devils had trouble defending the pass against CHAMPIONSHIP
better aerial attacks, as they gave up 262.2 passing yards per game. That DEFENSE: 8
was the second-most in the ACC, and it’s a number that will need to improve
in Elko’s second year at the helm. But Duke does bring back eight starters
from last year’s unit, and more time in the system should yield better results
at every level of the defense. Elko got this head coaching job because of his
defensive chops, so I’d expect him to figure out how to address most issues.
The Blue Devils have a lot of promising talent in the secondary, so it wouldn’t
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-4, ATS: 9-4, O/U: 5-7
be surprising if things flipped in a big way in the back of the defense. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 31.5 34 22.3 25 9/2 TEMPLE (-9.5) 30-0 W W
OUTLOOK 13.2 29 17.1 14
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Northwestern (10) 31-23 W W
Duke plays a much tougher schedule in 2023 than in 2022, but the Blue Devils
Plays Per Game 70.3 64 9/17 N CAROLINA A&T (-31) 49-20 W L
shouldn’t be sitting at plus-money odds to win seven games. This team has
five or six surefire wins on the schedule, and Duke should find a way to come Time of Possession 33:31 8 9/24 at Kansas (7) 27-35 L L
away with another couple of victories in some of the toss-ups. Look for the Blue 3rd Down Conv. % 40.5% 43 41.8% 94 10/1 VIRGINIA (-2) 38-17 W W
Devils to build on last season’s success, and this is a program to look out for Total Yards Per Game 415.6 40 380.3 56 10/8 at Georgia Tech (-3.5) 20-23 L L
over the next couple of years. Yards Per Play 5.9 36 5.3 50 10/15 NORTH CAROLINA (7) 35-38 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 37.3 60 10/22 at Miami Fl (10) 45-21 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 181.3 39 112.9 17 11/4 at Boston College (-11.5) 38-31 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.9 35 3.5 20 11/12 VIRGINIA TECH (-10) 24-7 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 31.8 66 11/19 at Pittsburgh (6.5) 26-28 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 62.7% 45 61.0% 73 11/26 WAKE FOREST (3) 34-31 W W

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 234.3 59 267.3 107 12/28 vs. UCF (-3) 30-13 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 60 7.2 69
Turnovers 0.8 6 2 8

58
 FLORIDA STATE HEAD COACH: MIKE NORVELL (4TH)
SEMINOLES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ALEX ATKINS
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ADAM FULLER

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #10 OF 133

Patience can be hard to have at a big program, but the Florida State Seminoles
had it with Mike Norvell. People called for the former Memphis coach’s head
after his Florida State career began with an 8-13 record over the first two
seasons. But Florida State bounced back and went 10-3 last year, and the
POWER RATING 59.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #1 OF 14

Seminoles earned a 35-32 win over Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl.

2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Norvell’s team now enters this season as one of the favorites to win the ACC,
and only six teams have better odds than the Seminoles to win the College 9/3 vs. LSU 3 62.5
SCHEDULE 44.44
Football Playoff. With Heisman candidate Jordan Travis running the show for a
9/9 SOUTHERN MISS -25.5 36
STRENGTH #49 TOUGHEST OF 133
team that brings back 17 starters from last season, it truly feels like the sky’s
the limit in Tallahassee. How will this group deal with expectations? 9/16 at Boston College -18.5 38.5
FIELD 2.1 / -0.2
OFFENSE
9/23 at Clemson 2.5 59.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Good luck slowing down this Florida State offense in 2023. Travis is arguably 10/7 VIRGINIA TECH -22.5 39.5
the most explosive quarterback in the country, as he is dynamic with his legs 10/14 SYRACUSE -15 47
and now has the ability to carve defenses up with his arm. On top of that,
2023 ODDS
10/21 DUKE -14.5 47.5
running back Trey Benson looks like a guy that will be the highest-draft player
at his position when he eventually heads to the NFL. Benson rushed for 990 10/28 at Wake Forest -10.5 45.5
yards with nine touchdowns last season, but he should easily eclipse the 1,000- 11/4 at Pittsburgh -9.5 47.5
yard mark in 2023.
+150
11/11 MIAMI FL -12 49.5 ODDS TO WIN
ACC
The Seminoles probably have a future NFL standout at wideout, too. Johnny 11/18 N ALABAMA -54.5 7.5
Wilson stands at a ridiculous 6-7 and hauled in 43 passes for 897 yards and 11/25 at Florida -4.5 52
five scores last year. Wilson also had eight catches for 202 yards in the Cheez-It
Bowl. He’ll likely be Travis’ favorite target in the passing game this year.
Overall, if Florida State’s offensive line does its job, the Seminoles should have
ODDS TO WIN
one of the nation’s top-scoring offenses. And this is supposed to be their best RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 18-1
17
NATIONAL

STARTERS
group up front in years. CHAMPIONSHIP
DEFENSE: 9
DEFENSE
Florida State had the second-best scoring defense in the conference last year,
giving up 19.7 points per game. This unit should be great again in 2023. The
Seminoles are absolutely loaded along the defensive line, and the secondary is
expected to be a big strength this season. Fentrell Cypress II was a stud for the
Virginia Cavaliers last year and was a big transfer market addition for Norvell’s
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 10-3, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 7-6
defense. If there’s anywhere Florida State might be lacking, it’s in the middle STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
of the defense. This group of linebackers could be better, but it should be good Points Per Game 35.2 18 21.8 23 8/27 DUQUESNE (-42) 47-7 W L
enough for them to accomplish their goals. 13.4 35 15.4 36
Yards Per Point 9/4 vs. LSU (4) 24-23 W W
Plays Per Game 70.6 60 9/16 at Louisville (-2.5) 35-31 W W
OUTLOOK
Florida State could very well win the ACC, and I actually like the Seminoles to Time of Possession 30:43 47 9/24 BOSTON COLLEGE (-18.5) 44-14 W W
do so at +150 odds. As far as the win total goes, meetings with LSU, Clemson 3rd Down Conv. % 51.3% 5 36.5% 45 10/1 WAKE FOREST (-6) 21-31 L L
and Florida are all capable of tripping Norvell’s group up, and there’s always Total Yards Per Game 471.4 13 334.9 22 10/8 at Nc State (3.5) 17-19 L W
a possibility that the Seminoles will lose a random game on the road in Yards Per Play 6.7 11 4.7 14 10/15 CLEMSON (4.5) 28-34 L L
conference play. But I tend to think that 11 wins is a bit more likely than nine Rush Attempts Per Game 37.8 51 10/29 GEORGIA TECH (-24) 41-16 W W
this year, and Florida State is one of my picks to make the College Football Rush Yards Per Game 198.1 23 161.7 75 11/5 at Miami Fl (-6.5) 45-3 W W
Playoff this season.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.2 15 4 50 11/12 at Syracuse (-7) 38-3 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 31.1 74 11/19 LA LAFAYETTE (-25) 49-17 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 63.0% 40 57.4% 26 11/25 FLORIDA (-9.5) 45-38 W L

OVER 10
Passing Yards Per Game 273.3 23 173.3 6 12/29 vs. Oklahoma (-10) 35-32 W L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.8 9 6.2 13
Turnovers 1.1 26 1.3 74

59
 GEORGIA TECH HEAD COACH: GEOFF COLLINS (5TH)
YELLOW JACKETS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BUSTER FAULKNER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KEVIN SHERRER / ANDREW THACKER

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #77 OF 133

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets haven’t had any success since ditching Paul
Johnson and the triple-option offense. The Yellow Jackets were miserable under
Geoff Collins, going 10-28 in his three-and-a-half years with the program. Now,
it’s Brent Key’s turn to lead this team. Key was the interim coach for Georgia
POWER RATING 39 CONFERENCE RANK: #13 OF 14

Tech last season, and the Yellow Jackets actually went 4-4 under his watch.
That was also a very young football team, so there is definitely some hope that 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
real strides will be made in 2023. The question is whether the talent is there
on either side of the ball. This should be a better team in 2023, but will that be 9/1 vs. Louisville 10.5 50
SCHEDULE 45.33
reflected in the record? The ACC should be better than it was a year ago, and
9/9 S CAROLINA ST -38.5 2
STRENGTH #37 TOUGHEST OF 133
the Yellow Jackets have nonconference games against Ole Miss and Georgia.

OFFENSE
9/16 at Ole Miss 20 56
FIELD 1.6 / -0.3
The loss of quarterback Jeff Sims might seem big, but the team should be in
9/23 at Wake Forest
9/30 BOWLING GREEN
10
-13
45.5
28
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
good hands with either Zach Pyron or Texas A&M transfer Haynes King taking
over under center. Both players are very talented and the winner of this battle 10/7 at Miami FL 13 49.5
should be just fine. The Yellow Jackets also added some real talent at wide
2023 ODDS
10/21 BOSTON COLLEGE -2 38.5
receiver, with Dominick Blaylock coming from Georgia and Christian Leary
transferring from the Alabama. Both players were four-star recruits that landed 10/28 NORTH CAROLINA 13 53.5
in the SEC for a reason, so they should be able to stand out in the ACC. 11/4 at Virginia 3.5 39
11/11 at Clemson 23.5 59.5 ODDS TO WIN
The only issue is that the Georgia Tech offensive line was something of a
11/18 SYRACUSE 6 47
200-1 ACC
disaster last season. The team will need that to change if it wants to improve
on last year’s embarrassing 17.2 points per game. Luckily for them, Key’s 11/25 GEORGIA 30.5 70.5
specialty is the offensive line. He’ll work to get that group in shape, and a year
of experience might do that naturally.
ODDS TO WIN
DEFENSE RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 500-1
12
NATIONAL

STARTERS
The Yellow Jackets gave up a miserable 189.2 rushing yards per game last CHAMPIONSHIP
season, which was the most in the ACC by far. In fact, only 21 teams in all of DEFENSE: 7
college football gave up more yards per game on the ground. Unless Georgia
Tech finds a way to clean things up along the defensive line, this will be a
miserable defensive unit. The Yellow Jackets actually do have some talent in
the secondary, but that’s not going to matter much if nobody is getting in the
backfield. Even the best corners in the country can’t stick with wideouts forever. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 4-7
OUTLOOK STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
When you look at Georgia Tech’s schedule, only two games stand out as ones Points Per Game 15.5 124 29.5 83 9/5 vs. Clemson (24.5) 10-41 L L
the team should absolutely win. Outside of meetings with South Carolina State 20.8 127 13.7 83
Yards Per Point 9/10 W CAROLINA (-24.5) 35-17 W L
and Bowling Green, are you confident in saying the Yellow Jackets should be
Plays Per Game 72.3 45 9/17 OLE MISS (17) 0-42 L L
favored in any of them? This looks like a football team destined to win three
games, and four seems like an outside possibility. But winning five really Time of Possession 29:15 78 9/24 at UCF (21) 10-27 L W
seems out of the question, which is why you have to lay some juice to take the 3rd Down Conv. % 29.6% 120 38.2% 59 10/1 at Pittsburgh (21.5) 26-21 W W
Under. Total Yards Per Game 323.2 110 402.9 83 10/8 DUKE (3.5) 23-20 W W
Yards Per Play 4.5 118 5.4 63 10/20 VIRGINIA (-3.5) 9-16 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 35.6 74 10/29 at Florida St (24) 16-41 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 122.6 93 196.3 109 11/5 at Virginia Tech (4) 28-27 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.4 102 4.7 99 11/12 MIAMI FL (-2.5) 14-35 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 33.1 51 11/19 at North Carolina (21) 21-17 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 58.0% 90 57.1% 22 11/26 at Georgia (36.5) 14-37 L W

UNDER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 200.5 100 206.6 31
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.1 117 6.9 41
Turnovers 1.1 30 1.8 17

60
 LOUISVILLE HEAD COACH: JEFF BROHM (1ST)
CARDINALS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRIAN BROHM
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: RON ENGLISH

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #35 OF 133

Jeff Brohm has been linked to the Louisville Cardinals head coaching job
for years, but he finally took the plunge in the offseason. Brohm turned in
back-to-back winning seasons on his way out with Purdue, which is impressive
considering it’s a hard program to win with. Brohm brings an offensive
POWER RATING 50 CONFERENCE RANK: #4 OF 14

pedigree, but he’s also a culture setter and should be able to do good work
with the resources he’ll have at his disposal. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Given he played for the program and held numerous assistant coaching jobs 9/1 vs. Georgia Tech -10 39
SCHEDULE 40.74
with the Cardinals from 2003 to 2008, Brohm knows exactly what it takes
9/7 MURRAY ST -49.5 4
STRENGTH #69 TOUGHEST OF 133
to get the job done in the area. He was a successful quarterback himself, so
players will likely want to learn from him. This hire should pay big dividends
in the future but don’t sleep on Louisville right now. The Cardinals have a
9/16 vs. Indiana -10 39
FIELD 3.3 / -0.1
good number of returning starters, and Brohm brought in Jack Plummer at
9/23 BOSTON COLLEGE
9/29 at NC State
-15
1.5
38.5
48.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
quarterback. He spent some time at Purdue before transferring to start for Cal.
10/7 NOTRE DAME 5.5 58.5
OFFENSE 10/14 at Pittsburgh 0 47.5
Plummer isn’t the most talented quarterback in the world, but he knows
Brohm’s system inside and out. Plummer likely won’t have many games in 10/28 DUKE -6 47.5
2023 ODDS
which he racks up numbers, but he can be trusted to take care of the football 11/4 VIRGINIA TECH -14 39.5
and get the ball in the hands of Louisville’s playmakers. There should be quite ODDS TO WIN
11/9 VIRGINIA -14.5 39
a few of those for the Cardinals, as Brohm completely overhauled the wide
11/18 at Miami FL 1.5 49.5
10-1 ACC
receiver room.
11/25 KENTUCKY -1 52.5
Louisville also has some real talent in the backfield, as Jawhar Jordan returns
after rushing for 815 yards and four scores last year — along with Maurice
Turner, who was also impressive last season. The Cardinals also brought
ODDS TO WIN
Isaac Guerendo over from Wisconsin. Guerendo had difficulty carving out a RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 200-1
12
NATIONAL

STARTERS
consistent role with the Badgers, but he was effective when he got touches. If CHAMPIONSHIP
this offensive line is even average, Louisville’s offense should look much better DEFENSE: 7
in 2023.

DEFENSE
There’s quite a bit to like about Louisville’s defense heading into this season.
The Cardinals only gave up 20.2 points per game last year, and there’s a good
amount of talent returning from that unit. Louisville figures to be very good in
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 4-9
the secondary this year, as cornerback Jarvis Brownlee is back after a big 2022 STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
season. The Cardinals also brought in some noteworthy Power Five transfers Points Per Game 26.9 65 19.2 10 9/3 at Syracuse (-5) 7-31 L L
to help him. If Louisville gets more than expected out of the pass rush, this 15.1 84 17.3 13
Yards Per Point 9/9 at UCF (5.5) 20-14 W W
Cardinals defense could be one of the best groups in the ACC.
Plays Per Game 69.8 72 9/16 FLORIDA ST (2.5) 31-35 L L
OUTLOOK Time of Possession 29:39 72 9/24 SOUTH FLORIDA (-16) 41-3 W W
This is a play that is very likely going to push, as the number seems pretty 3rd Down Conv. % 37.9% 75 33.1% 18 10/1 at Boston College (-13.5) 33-34 L L
spot on when you look at the schedule. But Louisville is a lot more likely to win Total Yards Per Game 407.1 43 332.2 20 10/8 at Virginia (1.5) 34-17 W W
seven games than nine this year, which is why the Under is the right call. For Yards Per Play 5.8 42 4.8 22 10/22 PITTSBURGH (-1.5) 24-10 W W
what it’s worth, Cardinals fans would very likely sign up for eight wins in Year Rush Attempts Per Game 39.6 34 10/29 WAKE FOREST (3) 48-21 W W
1 of Brohm. Scott Satterfield won eight games in his first year with Louisville, Rush Yards Per Game 201.5 17 135.1 38 11/5 JAMES MADISON (-6.5) 34-10 W W
but he didn’t reach that mark again after that.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 23 3.6 28 11/12 at Clemson (7) 16-31 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 28.3 99 11/19 NC STATE (-4) 25-10 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 59.2% 79 58.3% 35 11/26 at Kentucky (3.5) 13-26 L L

UNDER 8
Passing Yards Per Game 205.5 94 197.1 21 12/17 vs. Cincinnati (-2.5) 24-7 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.3 67 7.1 56
Turnovers 1.8 105 2.2 3

61
 MIAMI HEAD COACH: MARIO CRISTOBAL (2ND)
HURRICANES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SHANNON DAWSON
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: LANCE GUIDRY

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #40 OF 133

After four years in which Mario Cristobal guided Oregon to winning records,
the Miami Hurricanes went 5-7 in his first year in Coral Gables. Expectations
were rather high heading into the season, but Miami never quite looked like a
good football team. Cristobal does, however, return a lot of talent, and he has
POWER RATING 49.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #5 OF 14

done a very good job of recruiting elite players to the program.

2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
On top of that, Cristobal brought in Shannon Dawson as the team’s offensive
coordinator. Dawson was the mind behind an unstoppable Houston Air Raid 9/1 MIAMI OHIO -17.5 34.5
SCHEDULE 42.43
attack, so there is hope he can get Tyler Van Dyke back on track. If he does
9/9 TEXAS A&M 4.5 56
STRENGTH #65 TOUGHEST OF 133
that, there isn’t much preventing Miami from having a winning record and
playing in a solid bowl game. 9/14 BETHUNE-COOKMAN -51 1
FIELD 2 / 0.3
OFFENSE
9/23 at Temple -13.5 33.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Miami hopes that Dawson can work some of his magic on Van Dyke. Dawson 10/7 GEORGIA TECH -13 39
helped Clayton Tune get drafted in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and 10/14 at North Carolina 6.5 53.5
Van Dyke is a more talented player than the former Houston quarterback.
2023 ODDS
10/21 CLEMSON 8.5 59.5
Perhaps Van Dyke will finally live up to his potential in what should be a much
better passing attack in 2023. 10/28 VIRGINIA -12.5 39
11/4 at NC State 1.5 48.5
It should be a big help that the Hurricanes really beefed up the offensive line ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Florida St 12 59.5
in the offseason, bringing in two high-level starters to make the group up front
11/18 LOUISVILLE -1.5 50
20-1 ACC
better. Van Dyke should have plenty of time to throw this year, and the running
game will be able to take a lot of pressure off him. Somebody will just need to 11/24 at Boston College -9 38.5
emerge as a consistent receiving option.

DEFENSE
ODDS TO WIN
The Hurricanes weren’t a great defensive team last year, but the talent is RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 150-1
19
NATIONAL

STARTERS
in place for that to change in a hurry. There are legitimate five-star players CHAMPIONSHIP
scattered throughout this defense, and it’ll just be up to Lance Guidry to DEFENSE: 10
figure it all out. Guidry was with Marshall last season, and he put together
the nation’s seventh-ranked scoring defense in 2022. With that in mind, you
would think he could do a lot of damage with all the athletes he’ll have at his
disposal in Florida. It also doesn’t hurt that All-American Kamren Kinchens is
back. The Hurricanes have some question marks in the secondary, but having a
guy like Kinchens in the back of the defense definitely helps.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 2-10, O/U: 6-6
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 19.4 114 28 66 9/3 BETHUNE-COOKMAN (-49.5) 70-13 W W
One can argue that it’s not a great thing Miami returns most of its starters 18 119 13.5 89
Yards Per Point 9/10 SOUTHERN MISS (-27.5) 30-7 W L
after a 5-7 year, but experience goes a long way in college football. And that’s
Plays Per Game 72.5 44 9/17 at Texas A&M (6.5) 9-17 L L
especially true when it’s a team full of players that were highly regarded as
recruits. The Hurricanes should be better on both sides of the ball, and nothing Time of Possession 30:38 50 9/24 MIDDLE TENN ST (-25.5) 31-45 L L
about this schedule looks daunting. Miami even gets Clemson at home, which 3rd Down Conv. % 37.7% 77 42.6% 100 10/8 NORTH CAROLINA (-4) 24-27 L L
gives the Hurricanes an outside shot at pulling an upset. But even if that game Total Yards Per Game 348.5 97 378.3 52 10/15 at Virginia Tech (-9.5) 20-14 W L
goes as expected, there should be eight wins out there for Cristobal and Co. Yards Per Play 4.8 104 5.6 80 10/22 DUKE (-10) 21-45 L L
This Over looks like one of the better bets in the conference, and you can get it Rush Attempts Per Game 33.9 90 10/29 at Virginia (-3) 14-12 W L
at plus-money odds. Rush Yards Per Game 112.5 106 147.2 53 11/5 FLORIDA ST (6.5) 3-45 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.3 110 4.1 57 11/12 at Georgia Tech (2.5) 35-14 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 35.3 35 11/19 at Clemson (19) 10-40 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 60.6% 67 61.6% 82 11/26 PITTSBURGH (4.5) 16-42 L L

OVER 7.5
Passing Yards Per Game 236 58 231.1 68
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.7 91 8.3 117
Turnovers 2.2 124 1.7 26

62
 NORTH CAROLINA HEAD COACH: MACK BROWN (5TH)
TAR HEELS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CHIP LINDSEY
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: GENE CHIZIK / CHARLTON WARREN

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #21 OF 133

Mack Brown’s return to the North Carolina Tar Heels has felt like a failure at
times, but he did win nine games in 2022. That was the most the Tar Heels
have won since Brown came back, and they’ll now look to improve upon that in
2023. Fortunately for North Carolina, Drake Maye is back and hoping to show
POWER RATING 53.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #3 OF 14

NFL scouts that he’s a better player than USC quarterback Caleb Williams.
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Maye might miss Phil Longo this season, as the offensive coordinator left
to take a job with Wisconsin. But Maye is a good fit in any offense, and he 9/2 vs. South Carolina -3.5 50.5
SCHEDULE 43.60
happens to have a good group of pass catchers to throw to. This season will just
9/9 APPALACHIAN ST -18.5 37.5
STRENGTH #61 TOUGHEST OF 133
come down to how the Tar Heels’ defense plays. North Carolina was atrocious
on that side of the ball last year, and it’s hard to win games when you can’t
get stops.
9/16 MINNESOTA -5.5 50.5
FIELD 2.9 / 0.1
9/23 at Pittsburgh
10/7 SYRACUSE
-4
-9.5
47.5
47
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
OFFENSE
Not only is Maye back after throwing for 4,321 yards with 38 touchdowns 10/14 MIAMI FL -6.5 49.5
and only seven picks last year, but the Tar Heels were able to add transfer
2023 ODDS
10/21 VIRGINIA -17.5 39
Devontez Walker from Kent State. Walker caught 58 passes for 921 yards and
11 touchdowns last year, so he should be a huge asset for North Carolina. 10/28 at Georgia Tech -13 39
11/4 CAMPBELL -38 19
The question is whether the offensive line will give Maye the time to work his ODDS TO WIN
11/11 DUKE -9 47.5
magic. Maye is a legitimate candidate to be the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft,
11/18 at Clemson 8.5 59.5
10-1 ACC
but that’ll mean nothing if he isn’t kept upright. The Tar Heels will also need
a little more out of their running game, which hasn’t been the same since 11/25 at NC State -2 48.5
Michael Carter and Javonte Williams went to the NFL.

DEFENSE
ODDS TO WIN
For as good as North Carolina’s offense has looked in recent years, the defense RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 100-1
17
NATIONAL

STARTERS
has been equally as horrible. Last year, the Tar Heels gave up a miserable 31.0 CHAMPIONSHIP
points per game, giving them the worst scoring defense in the ACC. This group DEFENSE: 8
simply has to be better in 2023, as it puts far too much pressure on Maye and
the offense to score whenever they’re on the field.

The Tar Heels did add some reinforcements in the secondary, as Brown was
able to land some key transfer portal additions. If those moves work out for
North Carolina, this team will have a chance of achieving its goals next season.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-5, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 6-8
The Tar Heels can also use more consistency up front. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 32.8 27 31.3 104 8/27 FLORIDA AM (-46) 56-24 W L
OUTLOOK 13.8 49 14.2 68
Yards Per Point 9/3 at Appalachian St (3) 63-61 W W
It wouldn’t be all that surprising if the Tar Heels’ defense doesn’t come around.
Plays Per Game 76.6 15 9/10 at Georgia St (-7) 35-28 W T
And if that’s the case, North Carolina will have a very hard time reaching
nine wins in 2023. Something else to consider is that a slow start for the Tar Time of Possession 29:50 66 9/24 NOTRE DAME (-2.5) 32-45 L L
Heels could lead to Maye sitting some games at the end of the season. He 3rd Down Conv. % 46.0% 16 42.1% 95 10/1 VIRGINIA TECH (-9.5) 41-10 W W
needs to protect his body for the NFL Draft, much like former North Carolina Total Yards Per Game 452.6 22 444.3 111 10/8 at Miami Fl (4) 27-24 W W
quarterback Sam Howell had to do a few years ago. Yards Per Play 5.9 37 6.1 114 10/15 at Duke (-7) 38-35 W L
Rush Attempts Per Game 36 67 10/29 PITTSBURGH (-3) 42-24 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 142.2 73 173.6 92 11/5 at Virginia (-7.5) 31-28 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.9 76 4.6 97 11/12 at Wake Forest (4.5) 36-34 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 37.5 23 11/19 GEORGIA TECH (-21) 17-21 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.6% 28 65.2% 118 11/25 NC STATE (-6.5) 27-30 L L

UNDER 8.5
Passing Yards Per Game 310.5 10 270.7 111 12/3 vs. Clemson (7) 10-39 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.3 19 7.9 105 12/28 vs. Oregon (13.5) 27-28 L W
Turnovers 1.1 22 0.9 119

63
 NORTH CAROLINA STATE HEAD COACH: DAVE DOEREN (11TH)
WOLFPACK
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ROBERT ANAE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TONY GIBSON

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #43 OF 133

The North Carolina State Wolfpack had crazy hype heading into the 2022
season. NC State had quarterback Devin Leary coming back after having
thrown for 3,433 yards with 35 touchdowns and only five picks in 2021. And
the Wolfpack had plenty of returning starters elsewhere, and the team’s
POWER RATING 48.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #6 OF 14

defense was a force to be reckoned with.

2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
The problem is that none of that really amounted to anything. NC State went
just 8-5 on the season, finishing the year with a loss to Maryland in the Duke’s 8/31 at Connecticut -14 32
SCHEDULE 42.98
Mayo Bowl. This year, the Wolfpack face much more uncertainty heading into
9/9 NOTRE DAME 7.5 58.5
STRENGTH #62 TOUGHEST OF 133
the season. But maybe they’re better off in that position than having true
FIELD 3 / -0.2
expectations. But one thing NC State can probably count on is another winning 9/16 VMI -45.5 6
season. The Wolfpack have finished above .500 in eight of the last nine years. 9/22 at Virginia -6.5 39
9/29 LOUISVILLE -1.5 50
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
OFFENSE
Leary decided to transfer to Kentucky after the season, but Dave Doeren 10/7 MARSHALL -10.5 40.5
was able to act quickly and bring Brennan Armstrong over from Virginia. 10/14 at Duke 1.5 47.5
Armstrong was miserable last season, but he did throw for 4,449 yards with 31
touchdowns and 10 picks two years ago. He also has a good set of wheels, so 10/28 CLEMSON 8.5 59.5
2023 ODDS
it’s not outrageous to think that this is an upgrade at the position. 11/4 MIAMI FL -1.5 49.5
11/11 at Wake Forest 0.5 45.5 ODDS TO WIN
Unfortunately, the Wolfpack are relatively weak everywhere else. NC State
11/18 at Virginia Tech -6.5 39.5
22-1 ACC
rolls with a committee in the backfield, with none of the options being
special. And the Wolfpack don’t have a great offensive line or wide receiver 11/25 NORTH CAROLINA 2 53.5
group — although the latter could change with the team adding 6-5 wideout
Bradley Rozner from the Rice Owls. That means there will be a lot of pressure
on Armstrong to improvise and make plays. Fortunately, he’s a guy that is
ODDS TO WIN
comfortable being uncomfortable. Armstrong is also reuniting with offensive RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 300-1
11
NATIONAL

STARTERS
coordinator Robert Anae, who brought the best out of him at Virginia. CHAMPIONSHIP
DEFENSE: 5
DEFENSE
NC State had one of the best defenses in the country last year, and things
shouldn’t be very different in 2023. The Wolfpack brought back quite a bit of
talent from last year’s team. Payton Wilson is one of the best linebackers in
the nation, and he’ll make plays all over the field — alongside a talented group
of linebackers.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 4-9, O/U: 6-7
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
NC State also has some playmakers along the defensive line, while Shyheim Points Per Game 21.8 99 20.5 15 9/3 at East Carolina (-12.5) 21-20 W L
Battle and Aydan White make up a great duo in the secondary. Look for the 14.9 81 16.7 19
Yards Per Point 9/10 CHARLESTON SOUT (-45.5) 55-3 W W
Wolfpack to be very tough to score on this year. The only question is whether
Plays Per Game 71.4 55 9/17 TEXAS TECH (-10.5) 27-14 W W
the offense will do its part in helping these guys stay off the field.
Time of Possession 30:59 38 9/24 CONNECTICUT (-38) 41-10 W L
OUTLOOK 3rd Down Conv. % 35.2% 96 35.0% 29 10/1 at Clemson (6.5) 20-30 L L
There aren’t many bets that look better than the NC State Over, at least on Total Yards Per Game 323.3 109 341.7 26 10/8 FLORIDA ST (-3.5) 19-17 W L
paper. The Wolfpack have a tough schedule this season, but their defense Yards Per Play 4.5 116 5 32 10/15 at Syracuse (3) 9-24 L L
should win them a lot of games this year. The offense is definitely a little Rush Attempts Per Game 33.3 95 10/27 VIRGINIA TECH (-13.5) 22-21 W L
concerning, but the group won’t be counted on to score too many points. And Rush Yards Per Game 105.2 115 106.1 13 11/5 WAKE FOREST (3) 30-21 W W
this number is just too low for a team that has proven it can win games.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.2 120 3.4 15 11/12 BOSTON COLLEGE (-18) 20-21 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 35.9 32 11/19 at Louisville (4) 10-25 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 57.1% 95 58.5% 37 11/25 at North Carolina (6.5) 30-27 W W

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 218.2 83 235.6 80 12/30 vs. Maryland (-2.5) 12-16 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.1 116 6.8 40
Turnovers 1.3 42 1.6 38

64
 PITTSBURGH HEAD COACH: PAT NARDUZZI (9TH)
PANTHERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: FRANK CIGNETTI JR.
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: RANDY BATES

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #45 OF 133

It has gone a bit under the radar amongst college football fans and bettors,
but the Pittsburgh Panthers have won 20 games over the last two seasons. Pat
Narduzzi has done a very good job since taking over this program, turning in
winning seasons in six of his eight years. This year, the Panthers’ win total sits
POWER RATING 47.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #7 OF 14

at seven.
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
It’ll be interesting to see which way it goes, as the team brings back fewer
starters than most of its competition in the ACC. Pittsburgh did, however, bring 9/2 WOFFORD -37.5 12.5
SCHEDULE 44.84
in transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who put a lot of good things on film in
9/9 CINCINNATI -6 43.5
STRENGTH #45 TOUGHEST OF 133
his time with Boston College. The hope for the Panthers is that Jurkovec can
stabilize the position after a year in which the running game really carried the
offense.
9/16 at West Virginia 0 45
FIELD 2.2 / 0.4
9/23 NORTH CAROLINA 4 53.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
OFFENSE 9/30 at Virginia Tech -6 39.5
After Kenny Pickett lit it up for the Panthers in 2021, Pittsburgh brought in 10/14 LOUISVILLE 0 50
USC transfer Kedon Slovis to lead the offense in 2022. Slovis never found his
2023 ODDS
10/21 at Wake Forest 1 45.5
footing for the Panthers, leaving a lot on the shoulders of running back Israel
Abanikanda. Luckily for Pittsburgh, the running back delivered with 1,431 10/28 at Notre Dame 13.5 58.5
yards and 20 touchdowns. The running game, combined with a solid defense, 11/4 FLORIDA ST 9.5 59.5
allowed Pittsburgh to win nine games. ODDS TO WIN
11/11 vs. Syracuse -1 47
11/16 BOSTON COLLEGE -11.5 38.5
20-1 ACC
But the Panthers need to get back to being an efficient passing game.
Jurkovec should really help with that, as he has all the tools to be a very good 11/25 at Duke 1.5 47.5
quarterback. This offense should bring out the best in him, too. Pittsburgh does
a good job of blending the running and passing games, and the team has a
good offensive line. The Panthers also have a decent stable of receivers, so
ODDS TO WIN
everything is in place if Jurkovec holds up his end of the bargain. RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 200-1
11
NATIONAL

DEFENSE
There’s not a lot preventing this Pittsburgh defense from being one of the
STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

better units in the ACC this year. The Panthers have a very good group of
defensive backs, with Marquis Williams and MJ Devonshire making for one
heck of a pass-defending duo. And Narduzzi is a coach that always gets the
most out of his pass rushers. Last season, Pitt gave up just 23.4 points per
game, which was the seventh-lowest number in the ACC. Not many players are
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-4, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 9-3
back from that group, but the Panthers are going to be confident in the guys STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
that are being called on for bigger roles. Points Per Game 30.2 43 24.3 42 9/1 WEST VIRGINIA (-7.5) 38-31 W L
Yards Per Point 13.3 33 13.7 81 9/10 TENNESSEE (6) 27-34 L L
OUTLOOK
Plays Per Game 71.7 52 9/17 at W Michigan (-10.5) 34-13 W W
The Panthers don’t have the easiest schedule in the world, which is why it’s
hard to say this is going to be an eight-win football team in 2023. But this is Time of Possession 33:04 11 9/24 RHODE ISLAND (-33) 45-24 W L
a team that has a good amount of talent on both sides of the ball, and the 3rd Down Conv. % 37.0% 84 31.7% 12 10/1 GEORGIA TECH (-21.5) 21-26 L L
Panthers tend to do a good job of getting prepared on a weekly basis. With Total Yards Per Game 401.2 48 333.4 21 10/8 VIRGINIA TECH (-14.5) 45-29 W W
that in mind, it’s a little more likely that Pittsburgh will win eight games than Yards Per Play 5.6 50 4.8 24 10/22 at Louisville (1.5) 10-24 L L
six. For those reasons, the Panthers are worth going Over for their season win Rush Attempts Per Game 39.8 31 10/29 at North Carolina (3) 24-42 L L
total, even if it’s rather likely they’ll push. Rush Yards Per Game 175.5 47 102 8 11/5 SYRACUSE (-3.5) 19-9 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.4 55 3.4 14 11/12 at Virginia (-5.5) 37-7 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 30.3 80 11/19 DUKE (-6.5) 28-26 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 55.8% 107 55.7% 13 11/26 at Miami Fl (-4.5) 42-16 W W

OVER 7
Passing Yards Per Game 225.7 69 231.4 70 12/30 vs. UCLA (8.5) 37-35 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 55 6.6 29
Turnovers 1.7 97 1.8 16

65
 SYRACUSE HEAD COACH: DINO BABERS (8TH)
ORANGE
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JASON BECK
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ROCKY LONG

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #47 OF 133

After three losing seasons in a row, the Syracuse Orange went 7-6 in 2023.
The year ended with a 28-20 loss to Minnesota in the Pinstripe Bowl, but it was
still a step in the right direction for Dino Babers. With five losing seasons in
his seven years as the head coach of the Orange, Babers badly needed to go
POWER RATING 47 CONFERENCE RANK: #9 OF 14

over .500 and show the Syracuse decision-makers that he could right the ship.
However, the former Bowling Green head coach is likely still on the hot seat. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
The good news for Babers is that last year’s team found success despite being
very young. Now, the Orange bring back 14 starters from last year’s squad, 9/2 COLGATE -42.5 7.5
SCHEDULE 41.23
and one would think that a lot of those players will make some year-over-year
9/9 W MICHIGAN -24 26
STRENGTH #67 TOUGHEST OF 133
improvements.

OFFENSE
9/16 at Purdue 1.5 46
FIELD 2.6 / -0.2
This offense will go as far as the offensive line takes it. The Orange really
9/23 ARMY
9/30 CLEMSON
-14
10.5
36
59.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
struggled to block last year, but Syracuse is hoping that the transfer portal
addition of Richmond Spiders tackle Joe More will help stabilize the unit. 10/7 at North Carolina 9.5 53.5
Quarterback Garrett Shrader did some great things in 2022, especially with
2023 ODDS
10/14 at Florida St 15 59.5
his legs. However, this passing game needs to take a step forward in 2023,
and Shrader is going to have a hard time being accurate if he is constantly 10/26 at Virginia Tech -5 39.5
worried about being hit. The Orange will also need LeQuint Allen to be ready 11/3 BOSTON COLLEGE -11 38.5
to rock with star running back Sean Tucker now playing on Sundays. Allen was ODDS TO WIN
11/11 vs. Pittsburgh 1 47.5
impressive whenever he got chances last year, so this running game shouldn’t
11/18 at Georgia Tech -6 39
80-1 ACC
suffer too much from Tucker’s absence.
11/25 WAKE FOREST -4 45.5
DEFENSE
This defense has the potential to be great in 2023. Syracuse gave up only
22.7 points per game in 2022, and the team brings back eight starters on
ODDS TO WIN
that side of the ball. The Orange have real talent at every level of the defense, RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 300-1
14
NATIONAL

STARTERS
and they also have the legendary Rocky Long to tie it all together as the CHAMPIONSHIP
team’s defensive coordinator. The 73-year-old, who was a very successful DEFENSE: 7
head coach throughout his career, is one of the brightest defensive minds in
college football. He will love having all these pieces to work with, and he has
the potential to help Syracuse steal some wins with a few complete defensive
performances.

OUTLOOK
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 6-7
Syracuse was 6-0 to start last season, but the team went 1-6 the rest of the STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
way. I don’t think the Orange were as good as their first half of the year or as Points Per Game 25.1 77 25 47 9/3 LOUISVILLE (5) 31-7 W W
bad as their second half. I think the truth was somewhere in between, but I 14.1 60 14.1 69
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Connecticut (-23.5) 48-14 W W
expect this team to improve in 2023. And I see seven wins as a very attainable
Plays Per Game 66.7 106 9/17 PURDUE (-1.5) 32-29 W W
goal with their schedule. They’ll just need to win a game or two on the road
against teams at their level. At plus-money odds, that’s a shot worth taking. Time of Possession 28:27 100 9/23 VIRGINIA (-10) 22-20 W L
3rd Down Conv. % 34.7% 99 41.5% 90 10/1 WAGNER (-54) 59-0 W W
Total Yards Per Game 353.8 91 353.3 34 10/15 NC STATE (-3) 24-9 W W
Yards Per Play 5.3 74 4.9 26 10/22 at Clemson (14) 21-27 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 33.8 91 10/29 NOTRE DAME (1) 24-41 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 122.7 92 154.7 68 11/5 at Pittsburgh (3.5) 9-19 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.6 91 3.9 46 11/12 FLORIDA ST (7) 3-38 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 29.3 92 11/19 at Wake Forest (9.5) 35-45 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 59.7% 76 67.4% 126 11/26 at Boston College (-10.5) 32-23 W L

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 231.1 63 198.7 23 12/29 vs. Minnesota (10.5) 20-28 L W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.9 39 6.6 27
Turnovers 1.1 26 1.5 51

66
 VIRGINIA HEAD COACH: TONY ELLIOTT (2ND)
CAVALIERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DES KITCHINGS
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOHN RUDZINSKI

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #76 OF 133

The Virginia Cavaliers’ first season under former Clemson offensive coordinator
Tony Elliott was a bit of a disaster. The Cavaliers went 3-7 on the season and
1-6 in ACC play. Virginia’s offense was absolutely putrid, even with Elliott
having an offensive background. If that doesn’t change significantly in Year
POWER RATING 39 CONFERENCE RANK: #12 OF 14

2, it wouldn’t be surprising if Elliott enters 2024 with one of the hottest seats
in college football. The bright side is that Virginia’s defense was tougher than 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
expected in 2022, and nine starters from that unit are back in 2023. So, if
the Cavaliers can find a way to get things fixed offensively, it isn’t out of the 9/2 at Tennessee 20.5 56.5
SCHEDULE 45.16
question that Virginia is a much better football team this season.
9/9 JAMES MADISON -2 39.5
STRENGTH #39 TOUGHEST OF 133

OFFENSE
There isn’t much to be optimistic about when it comes to this offense. The team
9/15 at Maryland
9/22 NC STATE
13.5
6.5
50
48.5
FIELD 3 / -0.2
is very inexperienced along the offensive line, and there isn’t much talent at
9/30 at Boston College 2 38.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
the wide receiver position. Perhaps that could have been overlooked if the
Cavaliers had an elite quarterback, but that couldn’t be further from reality. 10/7 WILLIAM & MARY -10 31.5
10/21 at North Carolina 17.5 53.5
It seems like Tony Muskett will be the starting quarterback for Virginia. Muskett
threw for only 1,997 yards with 17 touchdowns and eight picks last year, and 10/28 at Miami FL 12.5 49.5
2023 ODDS
he did that with Monmouth. That’s an FCS program, and the competition in the 11/4 GEORGIA TECH -3.5 39
ACC might be a little overwhelming for him. ODDS TO WIN
11/9 at Louisville 14.5 50
11/18 DUKE 5 47.5
300-1 ACC
DEFENSE
After giving up 31.8 points per game in 2021, the Cavaliers only allowed 11/25 VIRGINIA TECH -3 39.5
24.0 points per game in 2022. That was a massive improvement that really
prevented Virginia from being even worse than it already was. Now, the
Cavaliers will be hoping for a bigger jump on that side of the ball, as the team
ODDS TO WIN
brought back most of last year’s starters. RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 1000-1
13
NATIONAL

However, cornerback Fentrell Cypress II decided to transfer to Florida State. He

was one of the better defensive backs in the conference last year, so it won’t
STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

be easy to replace him. But if Virginia can adequately do so, this will be a
very good defense in 2023. The Cavaliers have some good players along the
defensive line, and they are pretty loaded at safety.

OUTLOOK
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-7, ATS: 4-6, O/U: 2-7
This might not be a play you’ll want to track every Saturday, as this Cavaliers STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
team likely won’t be very fun to watch. But I think Virginia has a very realistic Points Per Game 15.1 126 24.8 46 9/3 RICHMOND (-21.5) 34-17 W L
shot at winning four games this year. The team has a very manageable 21.8 129 14.6 57
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Illinois (4) 3-24 L L
schedule, so all it will take is a few decent performances at home.
Plays Per Game 69.6 76 9/17 OLD DOMINION (-9) 16-14 W L
Time of Possession 26:59 123 9/23 at Syracuse (10) 20-22 L W
3rd Down Conv. % 30.2% 119 36.7% 47 10/1 at Duke (2) 17-38 L L
Total Yards Per Game 329.3 107 361.2 41 10/8 LOUISVILLE (-1.5) 17-34 L L
Yards Per Play 4.7 111 4.8 23 10/20 at Georgia Tech (3.5) 16-9 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 31.7 108 10/29 MIAMI FL (3) 12-14 L W
Rush Yards Per Game 111.1 108 151.9 62 11/5 NORTH CAROLINA (7.5) 28-31 L W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.5 98 3.7 32 11/12 PITTSBURGH (5.5) 7-37 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 34.3 42
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 53.1% 119 60.9% 72

OVER 3.5
Passing Yards Per Game 218.2 82 209.3 33
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.4 106 6.8 39
Turnovers 2.2 126 1.4 64

67
 VIRGINIA TECH HEAD COACH: BRENT PRY (2ND)
HOKIES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TYLER BOWEN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CHRIS MARVE

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #74 OF 133

The Virginia Tech Hokies went 3-8 in Brent Pry’s first year at the helm. Things
are expected to be a little bit better in 2023, as the Hokies return 14 starters
and know exactly what they need to improve on after a season in which they
really just lacked toughness on both sides of the ball.
POWER RATING 39.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #11 OF 14

However, this is still a program that is relatively low on talent compared to the 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
rest of the ACC, and it just feels like they’re destined for another year in which
neither side of the ball really strikes fear in opponents. Maybe Virginia Tech 9/2 OLD DOMINION -14.5 27.5
SCHEDULE 44.26
claws its way to four or five wins this year, which would be an improvement
9/9 PURDUE 4.5 46
STRENGTH #53 TOUGHEST OF 133
upon last year’s three-win season. But the team’s win total seems a little overly
optimistic. 9/16 at Rutgers 1 38.5
FIELD 2.2 / -0.3
OFFENSE
9/23 at Marshall 3 40.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Grant Wells will be back under center for Virginia Tech after a year in which 9/30 PITTSBURGH 6 47.5
he threw for 2,171 yards with only nine touchdowns. Wells also threw nine 10/7 at Florida St 22.5 59.5
interceptions on this season, and his uninspiring play makes it a little hard to
2023 ODDS
10/14 WAKE FOREST 4 45.5
believe in this Hokies offense in 2023.
10/26 SYRACUSE 5 47
The team did, however, have a nonexistent running game last year, so Wells 11/4 at Louisville 14 50
was always in inopportune positions. Perhaps getting the ground game going ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Boston College 1.5 38.5
will get more out of Wells, who was a pretty solid quarterback in his time with
11/18 NC STATE 6.5 48.5
150-1 ACC
Marshall. But the offensive line is expected to be a weakness for the Hokies, so
it’s hard to envision that happening. That’ll also do its part in negating the fact 11/25 at Virginia 3 39
that Pry did a good job of landing transfer portal talent at the wide receiver
position.
ODDS TO WIN
DEFENSE RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 500-1
14
NATIONAL

STARTERS
While the offense might be miserable in 2023, Pry needs to get more out of CHAMPIONSHIP
his defense this season. Pry did great work as the defensive coordinator for DEFENSE: 7
Penn State, so you’d expect him to figure it out in Blacksburg. He did, however,
stop calling plays at the end of last season.

So, things could look a little different in 2023. One thing to note is that the
Hokies do have an outstanding secondary. The problem is that the team is very
weak along the defensive line. So, Virginia Tech’s corners are constantly in
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-8, ATS: 4-7, O/U: 3-8
tough situations on second and third down. The Hokies will continue to struggle STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
to get stops if they don’t do a better job of hitting ball carriers in the backfield. Points Per Game 18.5 118 26.5 58 9/2 at Old Dominion (-6) 17-20 L L
Yards Per Point 16.4 110 14.7 54 9/10 BOSTON COLLEGE (-3) 27-10 W W
OUTLOOK
Plays Per Game 68.5 90 9/17 WOFFORD (-38) 27-7 W L
Things might improve in Year 2 under Pry, but that doesn’t mean the Hokies
are going Over their season win total. A five-win season would be a two-game Time of Possession 28:34 98 9/22 WEST VIRGINIA (2) 10-33 L L
improvement from 2022, but it would still allow bettors to cash on Under 3rd Down Conv. % 29.5% 122 35.1% 32 10/1 at North Carolina (9.5) 10-41 L L
tickets. And four or five wins feels right when looking at this roster and Total Yards Per Game 303.4 118 389.1 67 10/8 at Pittsburgh (14.5) 29-45 L L
schedule. Yards Per Play 4.4 121 5.3 52 10/15 MIAMI FL (9.5) 14-20 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 34.6 81 10/27 at Nc State (13.5) 21-22 L W
Rush Yards Per Game 114 103 145.6 52 11/5 GEORGIA TECH (-4) 27-28 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.3 113 4.1 60 11/12 at Duke (10) 7-24 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 30.8 77 11/19 at Liberty (10.5) 23-22 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 56.8% 98 58.8% 44

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 189.4 109 243.5 87
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.1 114 6.9 42
Turnovers 1.5 72 0.9 126

68
 WAKE FOREST HEAD COACH: DAVE CLAWSON (10TH)
DEMON DEACONS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: WARREN RUGGIERO
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRAD LAMBERT

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #55 OF 133

Sam Hartman is no longer the starting quarterback for the Wake Forest
Demon Deacons, as he will now be under center for Notre Dame. It’s going
to be a little bizarre seeing their offense without Hartman, and the team will
actually have to face him when the Demon Deacons travel to South Bend on
POWER RATING 45.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #10 OF 14

November 18th.
2023 SCHEDULE
Overall, this feels like it could be a retooling year for head coach Dave DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Clawson, who has turned in winning seasons in six of the last seven years.
8/31 ELON -24 25
SCHEDULE 44.27
Wake Forest doesn’t have a lot of talent returning from last year, and
Mitch Griffis will likely take some bumps in his first season as the team’s 9/9 VANDERBILT -9.5 39.5
STRENGTH #52 TOUGHEST OF 133
quarterback. But Clawson is a good coach, and he should have this figured
out soon. 9/16 at Old Dominion -16 27.5
FIELD 3.4 / 0.1
OFFENSE
9/23 GEORGIA TECH
10/7 at Clemson
-10
16.5
39
59.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Griffis had a very good game against VMI last year, throwing for 288 yards
with three touchdowns and no picks. ACC competition will, however, be a lot 10/14 at Virginia Tech -4 39.5
different than that, and it’s hard to see Griffis not having an up-and-down
2023 ODDS
season in his first year of action. The only real positive is that Hartman’s 10/21 PITTSBURGH -1 47.5
absence early last season gave Griffis some valuable reps with the first-team 10/28 FLORIDA ST 10.5 59.5
offense.
11/2 at Duke 4 47.5
If Wake Forest’s rushing attack can improve in 2023, it might help Griffis 11/11 NC STATE -0.5 48.5 ODDS TO WIN
make an instant impact. That would also potentially allow the Demon
11/18 at Notre Dame 15.5 58.5
80-1 ACC
Deacons to be an under-the-radar threat in the ACC. But there are a lot of
moving parts with this group, and there’s not much that suggests this will be 11/25 at Syracuse 4 47
an above-average unit this season. The most important thing these players
can do is learn to make waves in 2024.

DEFENSE ODDS TO WIN

RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 500-1
11
Last year’s Demon Deacons defense was miserable, and there isn’t much NATIONAL
to be optimistic about heading into 2023. One of the few things Wake
Forest did well last year was defend the run, but the team’s defensive line STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

is actually a question mark right now. If the Demon Deacons don’t find a
way to replicate the success of their 2022 run defense, opponents will score
against them at will. Wake Forest doesn’t have the talent required in the
secondary to slow down some of the better quarterbacks in this conference.
The only thing helping in that regard is that the Demon Deacons should have 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
a decent pass rush. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 5-8
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 35.4 17 29.8 87 9/1 VMI (-33.5) 44-10 W W
Wake Forest is normally a team that can be counted on to exceed
Yards Per Point 12.4 10 14.1 71 9/10 at Vanderbilt (-13.5) 45-25 W W
expectations, but the path to seven wins seems nonexistent in 2023. The
Demon Deacons have a number of difficult road games, and the team will Plays Per Game 78.1 8 9/17 LIBERTY (-18) 37-36 W L
also have trouble with some of its home opponents. Overall, this feels like Time of Possession 28:15 103 9/24 CLEMSON (8) 45-51 L W
a relatively low-risk play. Even if the Under doesn’t win, it’s highly unlikely 3rd Down Conv. % 45.8% 19 43.4% 109 10/1 at Florida St (6) 31-21 W W
you won’t push. But don’t get used to going Under on a Clawson-led group. Total Yards Per Game 439.8 30 419.9 97 10/8 ARMY (-16.5) 45-10 W W
He’ll find somebody he’s comfortable with to fill Hartman’s shoes and Wake
Forest will get back to consistently winning football games quickly. Yards Per Play 5.6 48 5.7 84 10/22 BOSTON COLLEGE (-20) 43-15 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 38.3 48 10/29 at Louisville (-3) 21-48 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 126.4 89 140.8 43 11/5 at Nc State (-3) 21-30 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.3 111 3.9 44 11/12 NORTH CAROLINA (-4.5) 34-36 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 36.7 26 11/19 SYRACUSE (-9.5) 45-35 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 63.2% 38 60.7% 69 11/26 at Duke (-3) 31-34 L L

UNDER 6
Passing Yards Per Game 313.4 8 279.2 121 12/23 vs. Missouri (-2.5) 27-17 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.5 12 7.8 101
Turnovers 1.5 72 1.3 86

69
big ten
betting preview
For the last two seasons, the road to the Big Ten Championship hasn’t gone through Columbus. It has gone through Ann Arbor as Jim Harbaugh and the
Michigan Wolverines won back-to-back conference titles and earned consecutive bids to the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten could look the same as
it ever was (before USC and UCLA join in 2024) this season as Michigan and Ohio State have combined to win the last six conference titles, and they are the
co-favorites to do so again at +165.

Michigan has gone 25-3 over the last two seasons, and Harbaugh arguably has his most talented team led by quarterback JJ McCarthy against one of the
softest schedules in the Power Five. However, they will host Ohio State in the season finale. Ryan Day and the Buckeyes bring back their typical stockpile of
five-star talent on both sides of the ball. Brian Hartline, one of the nation’s best recruiters, gets the keys to the offense as the new offensive coordinator.

Penn State (6/1) could have James Franklin’s most talented club in his tenure with five-star quarterback Drew Allar and a renewed potent running game.

In the West, it looks wide open with Wisconsin (+750) in its typical role as the favorite under first-year head coach Luke Fickell. But Fickell is not the only
first-year coach, as Nebraska (60/1) brings in Matt Rhule, Ryan Walters leaves as Illinois’ defensive coordinator to take the top job at Purdue (100/1), plus
first-year defensive coordinator David Braun becomes the interim head man at Northwestern (300/1), replacing Pat Fitzgerald, who was terminated due to
a hazing scandal.

Along with Wisconsin, Iowa (12/1) hopes a new transfer quarterback can revitalize sluggish offenses. Illinois (30/1) and Minnesota (40/1) are also lurking in a
wild, wild West division. Nevertheless, the West Division Champion will be in its typical spot as an underdog in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game.

2023 PROJECTED STANDINGS (BASED ON STEVE MAKINEN RATINGS)

2023 Schedule Strength All Games Conference Games DraftKings
Team SM PR (Rank) PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's O/U
EAST DIVISION
OHIO ST 69 47.65 (17) 10.6 1.4 7.9 1.1 10.5
MICHIGAN 67 44.02 (57) 10.7 1.3 7.7 1.3 10.5
PENN ST 61.5 44.3 (51) 9.6 2.4 6.7 2.3 9.5
MARYLAND 50 44.24 (54) 7.3 4.7 4.4 4.6 7
MICHIGAN ST 46 49.47 (2) 5.1 6.9 3.1 5.9 5.5
RUTGERS 38.5 44.65 (47) 4.1 7.9 1.8 7.2 4.5
INDIANA 39 47.45 (21) 3.8 8.2 1.7 7.3 3.5
WEST DIVISION
WISCONSIN 54 44.37 (50) 8.6 3.4 6.0 3.0 8.5
IOWA 51.5 43.77 (59) 8.0 4.0 5.5 3.5 8
ILLINOIS 50 46.13 (31) 7.1 4.9 4.9 4.1 6.5
MINNESOTA 50.5 48.83 (8) 6.6 5.4 4.4 4.6 7
PURDUE 46 49.28 (4) 5.3 6.7 3.5 5.5 5.5
NEBRASKA 46 45.96 (32) 6.0 6.0 3.4 5.6 6
NORTHWESTERN 38.5 44.83 (46) 3.9 8.1 1.9 7.1 3.5
70
 ILLINOIS HEAD COACH: BRET BIELEMA (3RD)
FIGHTING ILLINI
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BARRY LUNNEY JR.
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: AARON HENRY

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #37 OF 133

In his second season in Champaign, Bret Bielema delivered the first winning
season of Illinois Football in 11 years despite going 1-4 in one-score games.
The Illini started 7-1 but suffered losses by eight, seven, and two points before
easily dispatching Northwestern in the season finale.
POWER RATING 50 CONFERENCE RANK: #7 OF 14

This year, Illinois loses 32 lettermen including its quarterback, leading 2023 SCHEDULE
rusher, and three of its top four tacklers, plus first-round cornerback Devon DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Witherspoon, and defensive coordinator Ryan Walters left to take the head
9/2 TOLEDO -11 42
SCHEDULE 46.13
coaching job at Purdue. The Illini are attempting to post back-to-back winning
seasons for the first time since 2010-2011 the way Bielema did it at Wisconsin. 9/8 at Kansas -2.5 46
STRENGTH #31 TOUGHEST OF 133
Balance on offense and play good defense.

OFFENSE
9/16 PENN ST 9 61.5
FIELD 3 / 0.3
Illinois averaged 4.1 more points per game and increased its passing yardage
9/23 FLA ATLANTIC -13.5 39.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
by 55.6 yards per game under offensive coordinator Barry Lunney in his first 9/30 at Purdue -2 46
season. However, the Illini must replace starting quarterback Tommy DeVito 10/6 NEBRASKA -7 46
and running back Chase Brown, who led the Power Five in rushing yards
2023 ODDS
(1,643). Josh McCray and Reggie Love III will attempt to replace Brown, and 10/14 at Maryland 2 50
Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer will be Bielema’s third signal-caller in three 10/21 WISCONSIN 1.5 54
years.
11/4 at Minnesota 3 50.5
Four of the top six receivers are back, including former quarterback Isaiah 11/11 INDIANA -14 39 ODDS TO WIN
Williams (82-715-5), Pat Bryant (34-453-2), Casey Washington (31-306), and
11/18 at Iowa 4 51.5
30-1 BIG TEN
tight end Tip Reiman. Three starters also return for an offensive line that was a
semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award. Josh Kreutz, son of former Chicago Bears 11/25 NORTHWESTERN -15 38.5
center Olin, takes over at the same position.

DEFENSE
The Fighting Illini had the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (12.8 points per ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 300-1
12
game) and No. 3 total defense (273.5 yards per game). Witherspoon is gone NATIONAL
as is Walters, but new defensive coordinator Aaron Henry is promoted from
defensive backs coach, and he brings back seven starters, including Jer’Zhan STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

Newton (5.5 sacks, 14 TFLs) and Keith Randolph up front in the 3-3-5 defense.
Gabe Jacas (a Freshman All-American), Seth Coleman, and Tarique Barnes also
return for the linebacker group. Tahveon Nicholson takes over as the top corner
but has a great deal of inexperience around him.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OUTLOOK OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 4-8
Bielema has certainly built the culture he wants at Illinois which is to play STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
sound football and be tough and physical in the trenches — just like he did at Points Per Game 23.7 86 13.8 2 8/27 WYOMING (-14) 38-6 W W
Wisconsin. Illinois is probably more Wisconsin than Wisconsin at this point.
Yards Per Point 15.6 93 20.7 2 9/2 at Indiana (0) 20-23 L L
There is a fair amount of roster and coaching staff turnover; however, Illinois
gets a bit of a break in the conference schedule avoiding Ohio State and Plays Per Game 74.2 32 9/10 VIRGINIA (-4) 24-3 W W
Michigan and getting to host Penn State at home. Much will depend on the Time of Possession 32:46 12 9/22 CHATTANOOGA (-20) 31-0 W W
quarterback play from Altmyer. The cupboard is not barren with 10 All-B1G 3rd Down Conv. % 37.2% 81 30.6% 9 10/1 at Wisconsin (6) 34-10 W W
players (most in the West Division) returning. They did benefit from a +15 Total Yards Per Game 368.2 77 286.8 4 10/8 IOWA (-4) 9-6 W L
turnover margin, so more often than not, there is a little bit of regression in
that department year to year. Yards Per Play 5 97 4.4 2 10/15 MINNESOTA (4.5) 26-14 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 42.1 17 10/29 at Nebraska (-7.5) 26-9 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 166.9 55 102.6 9 11/5 MICHIGAN ST (-16) 15-23 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4 74 3.4 16 11/12 PURDUE (-6) 24-31 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 30 85 11/19 at Michigan (17.5) 17-19 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 69.2% 3 52.3% 3 11/26 at Northwestern (-15) 41-3 W W

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 201.3 98 184.2 11 1/2 vs. Mississippi St (3.5) 10-19 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.7 89 5.6 2
Turnovers 1.3 48 2.4 1

71
 INDIANA HEAD COACH: TOM ALLEN (7TH)
HOOSIERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: WALT BELL / ANTHONY TUCKER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MATT GUERRIERI / CHAD WILT

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #78 OF 133

Indiana had a 6-2 record during the COVID season in 2020 and earned a New
Year’s Day appearance in the Outback Bowl. It looked like this program had
some momentum, but that disappeared quickly as the Hoosiers have gone
a combined 6-18 in the last two seasons. Only eight combined starters (5
POWER RATING 39 CONFERENCE RANK: #12 OF 14

offense, 3 defense) return. Indiana also has new co-coordinators on both sides
of the ball as Tom Allen looks to stop the bleeding in Bloomington. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
9/2 OHIO ST 28 69
SCHEDULE 47.45
While the quarterback battle was not settled in the spring, it is widely expected
that Tennessee transfer Tayven Jackson, the brother of former Indiana 9/8 INDIANA ST -27 14.5
STRENGTH #21 TOUGHEST OF 133
basketball All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis, will get the nod. However, the
Hoosiers’ biggest offseason acquisition could be offensive line coach Bob
Bostad, who returns three starters and two other veterans from a group that
9/16 vs. Louisville 10 50
FIELD 2.3 / -0.1
struggled in a major way last season.
9/23 AKRON
9/30 at Maryland
-18
13.5
24
50
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

In the backfield, the Hoosiers return Josh Henderson (90-398-4) and All- 10/14 at Michigan 31.5 67
American kick returner Jaylin Lucas (49-271-2) to go along with Wake Forest
2023 ODDS
transfer Christian Turner (1022 yards in two seasons). Receiver Cam Camper 10/21 RUTGERS -2.5 38.5
(569 yards, 12.4 YPC, 2 TD) was lost after eight games with a torn ACL. He 10/28 at Penn St 25 61.5
returns to lead an inexperienced group of receivers for an offense that ranked
10th in scoring and 12th in total offense. 11/4 WISCONSIN 13 54
11/11 at Illinois 14 50 ODDS TO WIN
DEFENSE
11/18 MICHIGAN ST 4.5 46
500-1 BIG TEN
With heavy losses to graduation, Indiana went heavy into the transfer portal to
help a unit that only posted 37 sacks in the last two seasons. Western Michigan 11/25 at Purdue 9.5 46
transfer Andre Carter (7 sacks, 13.5 TFL in 2022) leads an incoming class with
several Power Five transfers, including Stanford linebacker Jacob Mangum-
Farrar (85 tackles in two seasons). Aaron Casey (86 tackles, 10.5 TFL) is the
returning leader of this group. ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 1000-1
8
NATIONAL
The Hoosiers lost their top four corners from last season and have new starters
at safety as well. Speaking of brand new, after calling the defense last year, STARTERS DEFENSE: 3
CHAMPIONSHIP

Allen turns that responsibility over to new co-defensive coordinator Matt

Guerrieri (Duke DC 2018-2021), who spent last season as a defensive analyst
at Ohio State.

OUTLOOK 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS

With the loss of 30 seniors and the addition of 25 transfers, Indiana is a hard OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 4-8, O/U: 7-5
team to project. What was considered momentum in 2019 and 2020 (14-7 STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
combined record) is now gone. The portal additions seem to be a stopgap Points Per Game 22.2 95 35 118 9/2 ILLINOIS (0) 23-20 W W
as Allen and company are not gaining enough in recruiting largely due to
Yards Per Point 14.4 69 13.1 100 9/10 IDAHO (-25) 35-22 W L
turnover on the coaching staff plus a lack of support from the university.
Plays Per Game 77.5 10 9/17 W KENTUCKY (-7) 33-30 W L
The Hoosiers open with Ohio State and likely earn wins over Indiana State and Time of Possession 26:04 128 9/24 at Cincinnati (16.5) 24-45 L L
Akron in nonconference play. The only conference game in which they will 3rd Down Conv. % 32.0% 114 42.3% 98 10/1 at Nebraska (6.5) 21-35 L L
likely be favored is against Rutgers. Indiana ranks as ESPN’s 10th-most difficult Total Yards Per Game 318.5 112 460.1 121 10/8 MICHIGAN (23.5) 10-31 L W
schedule this season. There is too much roster turnover and uncertainty to be
optimistic about the Hoosiers in 2023. Yards Per Play 4.1 128 5.8 101 10/15 MARYLAND (11) 33-38 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 32.7 97 10/22 at Rutgers (3) 17-24 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 99.2 121 179.5 98 11/5 PENN ST (14) 14-45 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3 126 4.3 74 11/12 at Ohio St (40) 14-56 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 41.3 9 11/19 at Michigan St (12) 39-31 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 54.0% 115 64.5% 111 11/26 PURDUE (10) 16-30 L L

UNDER 3.5
Passing Yards Per Game 219.3 81 280.5 123
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.3 127 8 107
Turnovers 1.5 65 1.2 94

72
 IOWA HEAD COACH: KIRK FERENTZ (25TH)
HAWKEYES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRIAN FERENTZ
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: PHIL PARKER

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #30 OF 133

The Hawkeyes won eight games last season, capped off by a Music City Bowl
victory in what was an up-and-down campaign. The offense, or lack thereof,
was the story of the 2022 season. Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach
in FBS, having taken over at Iowa in 1999. His son Brian is the offensive
POWER RATING 51.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #5 OF 14

coordinator and the program’s main lightning rod, so much so that Iowa
athletic director Gary Barta put together a revised one-year contract including 2023 SCHEDULE
a slight pay cut and stipulations that require the offense to average 25 points DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
per game and for the team to win seven games. If those terms are met, then
9/2 UTAH ST -24 30
SCHEDULE 43.77
he receives a new two-year contract. As for the father, he is going nowhere,
having signed an extension last year through 2029. 9/9 at Iowa St -0.5 48.5
STRENGTH #59 TOUGHEST OF 133

FIELD 2.9 / 0.4

OFFENSE 9/16 W MICHIGAN -28.5 26
Brian Ferentz’s new contract will require massive improvement for a unit that 9/23 at Penn St 12 61.5
averaged just 17.7 points per game and 251.1 yards per game and was in the
9/30 MICHIGAN ST -8.5 46
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
bottom 10 of every major offensive category in college football. New starting
quarterback Cade McNamara led Michigan to the CFP two years ago and then 10/7 PURDUE -8 46
lost his starting quarterback job after three games. He’s also coming off knee
10/14 at Wisconsin 5 54
surgery. Tight end Erick All also comes in with McNamara from Ann Arbor to
team with Luke Lachey (28-398-4). Wide receiver Nico Ragaini is the leading 10/21 MINNESOTA -3.5 50.5
2023 ODDS
returning pass catcher with just 34 receptions. Kaleb Johnson and Leshon
Williams combined for 1,191 yards and eight touchdowns behind an offensive 11/4 vs. Northwestern -12.5 38.5
line that returns all five starters but was a major disappointment (38 sacks 11/11 RUTGERS -16 38.5 ODDS TO WIN
allowed) compared to previous units that ranked amongst the nation’s best.
11/18 ILLINOIS -4 50
12-1 BIG TEN

DEFENSE 11/24 at Nebraska -4 46

As much as the offense had a meager output, the defense was one of the best
in the country, ranking second in scoring (13.3 points) and total (270.8 yards
per game) defense. Iowa won a game 7-3 (vs. South Dakota State) and lost
games 9-6 (at Illinois) and 10-7 (vs. Iowa State). Three starters return on the ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 150-1
16
defensive line, with Logan Lee and Noah Shannon leading the charge, plus Joe NATIONAL
Evans (18.5 career sacks) on the edge.
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

Butkus Award winner Jack Campbell, defensive lineman Lukas Van Ness, along
with corner Riley Moss and strong safety Kaevon Merriweather are gone and
must be replaced. Jay Higgins and Virginia transfer Nick Jackson become the
new starters at linebacker. All-Big Ten corner Cooper DeJean returned three
interceptions for touchdowns last season and was third on the team with 75 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
tackles. Xavier Nwankpa had a pick-six in the Music City Bowl and replaces OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 4-9
Merriweather at safety. Even with significant personnel losses, defensive STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
coordinator Phil Parker’s group could be even better than last year. Points Per Game 18.6 117 14.2 3 9/3 S DAKOTA ST (-10) 7-3 W L
Yards Per Point 13.9 52 20 4 9/10 IOWA ST (-4) 7-10 L L
OUTLOOK
There is a lot of pressure on McNamara to make things happen, like saving Plays Per Game 62.2 127 9/17 NEVADA (-24) 27-0 W W
Brian Ferentz’s job for one. He will also not have near the number of offensive Time of Possession 28:10 108 9/24 at Rutgers (-7.5) 27-10 W W
weapons, particularly at receiver, that he had at Michigan. While Iowa 3rd Down Conv. % 28.3% 126 31.6% 11 10/1 MICHIGAN (10.5) 14-27 L L
arguably has the best punter-kicker combination with Tory Taylor and Drew Total Yards Per Game 258.5 129 283.3 3 10/8 at Illinois (4) 6-9 L W
Stevens, the Hawkeyes cannot count on the kicking game to win them ball
games for another season. They should be at least a little better at offense Yards Per Play 4.2 126 4 1 10/22 at Ohio St (29) 10-54 L L
(can’t be any worse), but defense is still the strength of this club. And Iowa Rush Attempts Per Game 32.3 104 10/29 NORTHWESTERN (-11) 33-13 W W
does avoid Ohio State and Michigan (no rematch for McNamara and All). The Rush Yards Per Game 97.8 122 107 14 11/5 at Purdue (3.5) 24-3 W W
Hawkeyes will likely have another campaign of being good but not great. Yards Per Rush Attempt 3 124 3 3 11/12 WISCONSIN (-1) 24-10 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 26.9 110 11/19 at Minnesota (1.5) 13-10 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 56.0% 103 60.0% 55 11/25 NEBRASKA (-10.5) 17-24 L L

OVER 8
Passing Yards Per Game 160.7 121 176.3 9 12/31 vs. Kentucky (-3) 21-0 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6 118 5.4 1
Turnovers 1.2 36 1.9 12

73
 MARYLAND HEAD COACH: MIKE LOCKSLEY (5TH)
TERRAPINS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOSH GATTIS / KEVIN SUMLIN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRIAN WILLIAMS

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #38 OF 133

Mike Locksley had his best team in four seasons at College Park and went
8-5, finishing the season with a Duke’s Mayo Bowl victory over NC State.
The Terrapins were competitive with the big boys in 2022, having covered
against Michigan and Ohio State, but they have not been able to get over the
POWER RATING 50 CONFERENCE RANK: #8 OF 14

hump against the top teams. Locksley received an extension in 2021 and has
delivered on recruiting by ranking in the top half of the conference each year. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
The next step is to deliver results on the field.
9/2 TOWSON -38 14
SCHEDULE 44.24
OFFENSE
9/9 CHARLOTTE -27.5 25
STRENGTH #54 TOUGHEST OF 133
Taulia Tagovailoa elected to return for his senior season and add to his legacy,
as he is already the school’s all-time leading passer with 51 touchdown passes
and 7,879 yards. However, he will be working with a mostly new group as four
9/15 VIRGINIA -13.5 39
FIELD 2.2 / -0.2
of his offensive line starters must be replaced, plus several receivers.
9/23 at Michigan St
9/30 INDIANA
-1.5
-13.5
46
39
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Running back Roman Hemby scored 10 touchdowns and had 1,287 yards from 10/7 at Ohio St 22.5 69
scrimmage as a freshman. The Terps always have talent at receiver, and this
2023 ODDS
10/14 ILLINOIS -2 50
year is no exception with Jeshaun Jones (44-557-4), tight end Corey Dyches
(39-494-3), plus FIU transfer Tyrese Chambers (1618 yards in two seasons) and 10/28 at Northwestern -9.5 38.5
true freshman Shaleak Knotts. Josh Gattis was supposed to come to Maryland 11/4 PENN ST 9.5 61.5
with Locksley in 2018 but took the offensive coordinator job at Michigan ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Nebraska -2 46
instead. Now he and Locksley, who were co-OCs at Alabama in 2018, are
11/18 MICHIGAN 15.5 67
100-1 BIG TEN
reunited.
11/25 at Rutgers -9.5 38.5
DEFENSE
Maryland gave up too many chunk plays last year in the passing game.
Tarheeb Still returns at corner, and Cincinnati transfer Ja’Quan Sheppard plugs
ODDS TO WIN
right in. Beau Brade, the team’s leading tackler with 85, and Dante Trader Jr.. RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 QB 300-1
11
NATIONAL

STARTERS
return at safety. Miami (FL) transfer Avantae Williams could also help. CHAMPIONSHIP
DEFENSE: 6
Jaishawn Barham and Ruben Hyppolite are both star linebackers that could
take the leap this year. The Terps hit the portal for help up front with Tennessee
transfer Jordan Phillips and FCS All-American Donnell Brown (St. Francis PA) to
help a unit that only had 24 sacks last year.

OUTLOOK
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 5-8
Maryland has two straight bowl victories and are getting one more season STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
with the best quarterback in program history. Locksley brings in Gattis Points Per Game 28.2 57 23.2 34 9/3 BUFFALO (-24) 31-10 W L
and former Houston, Texas A&M, and Arizona head coach Kevin Sumlin as 14.3 67 15.4 35
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Charlotte (-28) 56-21 W W
offensive coordinators. Although the Terps will likely have some growing pains
Plays Per Game 73.5 37 9/17 SMU (-2.5) 34-27 W W
early on offense with four new offensive line starters, they open with three
nonconference home games in which they will be favored and could also Time of Possession 30:55 41 9/24 at Michigan (17.5) 27-34 L W
be favored in all three games against their West Division opponents. A third 3rd Down Conv. % 41.5% 38 38.9% 64 10/1 MICHIGAN ST (-7.5) 27-13 W W
straight bowl appearance is likely for “Lia’s” swan song in College Park. Total Yards Per Game 401.8 47 357.1 37 10/8 PURDUE (-3) 29-31 L L
Yards Per Play 5.5 59 4.9 25 10/15 at Indiana (-11) 38-33 W L
Rush Attempts Per Game 35.8 70 10/22 NORTHWESTERN (-14) 31-24 W L
Rush Yards Per Game 141.6 76 133.8 37 11/5 at Wisconsin (5) 10-23 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4 75 3.8 37 11/12 at Penn St (10.5) 0-30 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 34.3 44 11/19 OHIO ST (26) 30-43 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 65.9% 14 57.2% 23 11/26 RUTGERS (-14.5) 37-0 W W

OVER 7
Passing Yards Per Game 260.2 38 223.3 51 12/30 vs. Nc State (2.5) 16-12 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.6 50 6.2 11
Turnovers 1.2 34 1.2 90

74
 MICHIGAN HEAD COACH: JIM HARBAUGH (9TH)
WOLVERINES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SHERRONE MOORE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JESSE MINTER

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #4 OF 133

The Wolverines went back-to-back last year, winning the Big Ten for the first
time since 2004. They beat Ohio State for the second consecutive year and
had an undefeated regular season for the first time since 1997. Then, they fell
behind 21-3 to TCU in the CFP National Semifinal and could not quite complete
POWER RATING 67 CONFERENCE RANK: #2 OF 14

the comeback. Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines have accomplished the goal
of getting back on the level of their archrival down in Columbus, but now 2023 SCHEDULE
they have had a taste and want more, having been to the College Football DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Playoff the last two years. With one of the softest schedules in the Power Five,
9/2 EAST CAROLINA -34 36
SCHEDULE 44.02
Michigan looks primed to get to the big stage for the third year in a row.
9/9 UNLV -39 31.5
STRENGTH #57 TOUGHEST OF 133
OFFENSE
Junior quarterback JJ McCarthy (2,719 yards, 22-5 TD-INT) is back after
winning the starting job for good in Week 3 of last season and will likely be
9/16 BOWLING GREEN -42.5 28
FIELD 3.3 / 0.5
allowed to take more deep shots with another year of experience. Nevertheless,
9/23 RUTGERS
9/30 at Nebraska
-31.5
-19.5
38.5
46
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Michigan will run the ball and run it often with All-American Blake Corum
(1,463 yards, 18 TD), back from left knee surgery, and Donovan Edwards (991 10/7 at Minnesota -14.5 50.5
yards, 7 TD).
10/14 INDIANA -31.5 39
The Wolverines’ offensive line has won the Joe Moore Award for the past two 10/21 at Michigan St -19.5 46
2023 ODDS
seasons and return three starters up front. Tight ends Colston Loveland and
Indiana transfer AJ Barner make for a potentially potent combination. The 11/4 PURDUE -24 46

+165
receiving unit is not stocked with elite talent and lacks that true go-to guy but 11/11 at Penn St -3.5 61.5 ODDS TO WIN
Cornelius Johnson (32-449-6) and Roman Wilson (25-376-4) return. BIG TEN
11/18 at Maryland -15.5 50
DEFENSE 11/25 OHIO ST -1 69
Michigan was rated sixth nationally in total defense last season, and despite
losing three draft picks, they return seven starters. Seniors Kris Jenkins and
Jaylen Harrell man the right side and will be looking for young players to step
ODDS TO WIN
+850
up on the other side.
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB

15
NATIONAL
The linebacker corps is as deep as it has ever been, which returns All-Big Ten
middle backer Junior Colson and sixth-year Michael Barrett, along with Earnest STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

Hausmann, who started as a freshman at Nebraska.

Will Johnson is one of the best corners in the country and started five games as
a freshman last year. Safeties Rod Moore and Makari Paige return along with
nickel back Mike Sainristil. Amorion Walker moves from receiver to the other 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
starting corner, so there could be some growing pains there early on. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 13-1, ATS: 9-5, O/U: 5-8
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 40.4 6 16.1 6 9/3 COLORADO ST (-31) 51-7 W W
JJ McCarthy finally goes into the season knowing that he is the guy at
Yards Per Point 11.3 2 18.2 7 9/10 HAWAII (-53) 56-10 W L
quarterback. Michigan wants to open the offense more, but someone must step
up from the receiver group that, on paper, lacks that elite talent. Nonetheless, Plays Per Game 70.5 61 9/17 CONNECTICUT (-47.5) 59-0 W W
Michigan will run the ball well and play great defense. Time of Possession 33:47 5 9/24 MARYLAND (-17.5) 34-27 W L
3rd Down Conv. % 45.2% 27 33.8% 22 10/1 at Iowa (-10.5) 27-14 W W
The nonconference schedule of East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green is as Total Yards Per Game 458.8 19 292.1 5 10/8 at Indiana (-23.5) 31-10 W L
easy as you can get for a Power Five program. They do have to travel to Penn
State on November 11 and host the Buckeyes in the finale on November 25, Yards Per Play 6.5 13 4.5 4 10/15 PENN ST (-7) 41-17 W W
but this is a different program that now needs to be considered a bona fide Rush Attempts Per Game 42.9 13 10/29 MICHIGAN ST (-21.5) 29-7 W W
National Championship contender. Rush Yards Per Game 238.9 7 97.9 5 11/5 at Rutgers (-26) 52-17 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.6 4 3.3 9 11/12 NEBRASKA (-30.5) 34-3 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 26.4 113 11/19 ILLINOIS (-17.5) 19-17 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.3% 29 55.9% 15 11/26 at Ohio St (9) 45-23 W W

OVER 10.5
Passing Yards Per Game 219.9 79 194.2 18 12/3 vs. Purdue (-15) 43-22 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.3 17 5.9 5 12/31 vs. TCU (-8) 45-51 L L
Turnovers 0.7 5 1.3 81

75
 MICHIGAN STATE HEAD COACH: MEL TUCKER (4TH)
SPARTANS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JAY JOHNSON
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SCOTTIE HAZELTON

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #52 OF 133

After an 11-2 season in 2021, which included wins over Michigan, Penn State,
and Miami (FL), Mel Tucker was given a 10-year, $95 million contract. The
Spartans fan base is already expressing buyer’s remorse as Michigan State fell
to 5-7 last year, including six double-digit losses.
POWER RATING 46 CONFERENCE RANK: #10 OF 14

The bottom was missing a 22-yard FG versus Indiana that cost the Spartans 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
a bowl bid as they lost to the Hoosiers in overtime. The recruiting looks to be
improving in the high schools, but they are still a bit reliant on the transfer 9/1 C MICHIGAN -15.5 32.5
SCHEDULE 49.47
portal. Michigan State is still a middling program in the Big Ten, and $95
9/9 RICHMOND -17.5 30.5
STRENGTH #2 TOUGHEST OF 133
million should be able to buy more.

OFFENSE
9/16 WASHINGTON
9/23 MARYLAND
9.5
1.5
58
50
FIELD 2.2 / 0
Two-year starter Payton Thorne was challenged in spring practice by Noah Kim
9/30 at Iowa 8.5 51.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
and Katin Houser. Thorne exited the quarterback competition by transferring to
Auburn. He was not alone as a late transfer as top receiver Keon Coleman left 10/14 at Rutgers -5.5 38.5
for Florida State. 10/21 MICHIGAN 19.5 67
The offensive line returns all five starters from the season finale last year at 10/28 at Minnesota 7 50.5
2023 ODDS
Penn State, but this group has been mediocre at best in recent years. 11/4 NEBRASKA -2.5 46
11/11 at Ohio St 26.5 69 ODDS TO WIN
Jalen Berger (148-683-6) returns as the starting running back, and that
11/18 at Indiana -4.5 39
150-1 BIG TEN
room has some depth with transfers Nathan Carter (Connecticut) and Jaren
Mangham (South Florida). Receiver Tre Mosley (35-359-4) and tight end Maliq 11/24 vs. Penn St 15 61.5
Carr (16-209-2) are the top returning targets for whoever wins the quarterback
job between Kim and Houser.
ODDS TO WIN
DEFENSE RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 400-1
13
NATIONAL

STARTERS
This group was ravaged by injuries early last season, plus had eight defensive CHAMPIONSHIP
players suspended for the final four games of the season. A whopping 27 DEFENSE: 7
different players earned starts in 2022, and that is a main reason why they
ranked 101st nationally in total defense. Cal Haladay and Jacoby Windmon,
who plays a little off the edge in pass rush situations, are a good linebacker
duo. Texas A&M transfer Tunmise Adeleye should help on the edge allowing
Windmon to play primarily at ‘backer. The secondary is still a question mark,
and it has been subpar throughout Tucker’s tenure.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 4-7, O/U: 5-7
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 24.4 81 27.4 63 9/2 W MICHIGAN (-21.5) 35-13 W W
Was Michigan State’s drop from 11-2 to 5-7 just a blip on the radar screen 14.5 74 15.2 42
Yards Per Point 9/10 AKRON (-34.5) 52-0 W W
or something more? The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle. The
Plays Per Game 65.8 113 9/17 at Washington (3.5) 28-39 L L
nonconference schedule includes a rematch with Washington and Heisman
candidate quarterback Michael Penix Jr.. Time of Possession 26:13 126 9/24 MINNESOTA (2.5) 7-34 L L
3rd Down Conv. % 38.8% 62 43.5% 110 10/1 at Maryland (7.5) 13-27 L L
The Spartans also lost their quarterback and top receiver after the spring, Total Yards Per Game 353.2 92 416.5 94 10/8 OHIO ST (27.5) 20-49 L L
so they could be behind the eight-ball early in the season. They also only Yards Per Play 5.4 67 5.6 79 10/15 WISCONSIN (7) 34-28 W W
have three true home games in conference play, with the game versus Penn Rush Attempts Per Game 30 118 10/29 at Michigan (21.5) 7-29 L L
State being held at Ford Field in Detroit, so they will have to battle for bowl Rush Yards Per Game 113.2 104 178.6 96 11/5 at Illinois (16) 23-15 W W
eligibility.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.8 85 4.3 77 11/12 RUTGERS (-10) 27-21 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 34.3 45 11/19 INDIANA (-12) 31-39 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 62.8% 43 66.4% 122 11/26 at Penn St (19) 16-35 L T

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 240 54 237.9 82
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7 77 7.9 104
Turnovers 1.3 48 1 113

76
 MINNESOTA HEAD COACH: P. J. FLECK (7TH)
GOLDEN GOPHERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: GREG HARBAUGH JR. / MATT SIMON
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: NICK MONROE / JOE ROSSI

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #32 OF 133

Excluding the 2020 COVID season, Minnesota has had four straight winning
seasons and four consecutive bowl game victories. This season, the Gophers
must make a bit of a transition after losing Tanner Morgan, who was the
starter at quarterback for the better part of the last four seasons. Also
POWER RATING 50.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #6 OF 14

departing are the program’s all-time leading rusher, Mo Ibrahim, and three
interior offensive linemen, including Rimington Trophy finalist John Michael 2023 SCHEDULE
Schmitz. Minnesota has been a model of consistency in recent years. They DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
are never picked to win the West Division and have not reached the Big Ten
8/31 NEBRASKA -7.5 46
SCHEDULE 48.83
Championship Game, but they are always in the division mix.
9/9 E MICHIGAN -21 32
STRENGTH #8 TOUGHEST OF 133
OFFENSE
There will have to be at least a slight switch in offensive identity with the
departure of Ibrahim. P.J. Fleck always wants a strong running game (2nd in
9/16 at North Carolina 5.5 53.5
FIELD 2.7 / 0.4
the Big Ten in rushing, 12th in passing last season), but without Ibrahim and
9/23 at Northwestern
9/30 LA LAFAYETTE
-10.5
-14.5
38.5
38.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Schmitz, there will have to be more balance offensively. Kirk Ciarrocca leaves
to be the offensive coordinator at Rutgers, so Greg Harbaugh Jr. (quarterbacks 10/7 MICHIGAN 14.5 67
coach) and Matt Simon (wide receivers coach) will team up as co-offensive
2023 ODDS
coordinators. 10/21 at Iowa 3.5 51.5
10/28 MICHIGAN ST -7 46
Big-armed quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis started five games last year. He
will have transfer Sean Tyler, who had two 1,000-yard seasons at Western 11/4 ILLINOIS -3 50
Michigan, behind him at running back. Fleck might have the best group of pass 11/11 at Purdue -2.5 46 ODDS TO WIN
catchers that he has ever had here with 6-7 tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford and
11/18 at Ohio St 21.5 69
40-1 BIG TEN
rising star Daniel Jackson, plus transfers Elijah Spencer (Charlotte) and Corey
Crooms Jr.. (Western Michigan). 11/25 WISCONSIN 1 54

DEFENSE
Minnesota ranked fourth nationally in scoring defense (13.8 points per game)
and ninth in total defense (295.1 yards per game) last season. The secondary ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 200-1
13
gets hit the hardest with safety Jordan Howden and corner Terell Smith off to NATIONAL
the NFL, plus nickel Michael Smith transferring to Rutgers. There is still talent
back there with potential first-round safety Tyler Nubin and corner Justin STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

Walley.

Even with the impressive numbers of the defense last year, the Gophers
still ranked 13th in the conference and 118th nationally for sacks. With the
secondary needing some time to gel, Minnesota must generate more of a pass 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
rush if they want to get over the hump in the Big Ten West. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-4, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 5-7
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 25.4 73 14.2 3 9/1 NEW MEXICO ST (-36) 38-0 W W
The Gophers have a difficult schedule drawing both Michigan and Ohio State.
Yards Per Point 14.4 71 21.4 1 9/10 W ILLINOIS (-41) 62-10 W W
They also have a road trip to Iowa, who has owned the series, as Fleck is 0-6
all-time against Kirk Ferentz. With only nine combined returning starters, it is Plays Per Game 66.5 107 9/17 COLORADO (-28) 49-7 W W
easy to see that Minnesota could take at least a small step back. Time of Possession 34:07 4 9/24 at Michigan St (-2.5) 34-7 W W
3rd Down Conv. % 51.0% 6 29.6% 7 10/1 PURDUE (-9) 10-20 L L
The passing game will be better, but the running game will fall far below Total Yards Per Game 366.4 79 303.1 7 10/15 at Illinois (-4.5) 14-26 L L
previous production without Ibrahim and the bulk of last year’s interior line.
The defense also lost a great deal of personnel from last year’s elite unit. The Yards Per Play 5.5 54 4.9 28 10/22 at Penn St (5.5) 17-45 L L
Gophers should reach bowl eligibility, but reaching nine wins as they have the Rush Attempts Per Game 43.9 9 10/29 RUTGERS (-14) 31-0 W W
last two seasons is too tall of an order. Rush Yards Per Game 200 19 115.2 18 11/5 at Nebraska (-15) 20-13 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.6 49 3.9 39 11/12 NORTHWESTERN (-17) 31-3 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 21.3 127 11/19 IOWA (-1.5) 10-13 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 60.2% 70 58.8% 45 11/26 at Wisconsin (3) 23-16 W W

UNDER 7
Passing Yards Per Game 166.4 119 187.9 14 12/29 vs. Syracuse (-10.5) 28-20 W L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.8 41 6.2 12
Turnovers 1 16 1.4 66

77
 NEBRASKA HEAD COACH: MATT RHULE (1ST)
CORNHUSKERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MARCUS SATTERFIELD
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TONY WHITE

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #54 OF 133

While Matt Rhule’s tenure with the Carolina Panthers did not go well, he is a
proven rebuilder and culture-changer, as evident by his stops at Temple (2-10
in his first year and 10 wins by his third year) and Baylor (1-11 to 11-1 in three
years). Nebraska athletic director and former football great Trev Alberts finally
POWER RATING 46 CONFERENCE RANK: #11 OF 14

decided to go outside the family, which is what the program needs, to hire
Rhule. He is coming in to win right away but getting this program back into a
bowl game for the first time since 2016 would be a great accomplishment. And
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
there is some talent to work with here.
8/31 at Minnesota 7.5 50.5
SCHEDULE 45.96
OFFENSE
New offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield comes in from the same role at 9/9 at Colorado -8.5 34.5
STRENGTH #32 TOUGHEST OF 133

1.8 / -0.2
South Carolina and is bringing back the huddle and ditching the up-tempo
spread from previous coach Scott Frost. The Huskers clearly want to be more
9/16 N ILLINOIS -16.5 31.5
FIELD
of a ball-control offense. Running that offense will be Georgia Tech transfer 9/23 LOUISIANA TECH -18 30
quarterback Jeff Sims, who impressed coaches enough in the spring to send
9/30 MICHIGAN 19.5 67
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
2022 starter Casey Thompson into the portal. Sims is a pocket passer but also
adds a running threat (1,153 yards in three years with the Yellow Jackets). 10/6 at Illinois 7 50
10/21 NORTHWESTERN -9.5 38.5
Nebraska wants to run the ball and the new staff inherits the return of its top
four rushers led by Anthony Grant (218-915-6). The offensive line brings back 10/28 PURDUE -1.5 46
2023 ODDS
four starters, including Arizona State transfer center Ben Scott. There is very
little depth at wide receiver behind transfers Marcus Washington (Texas) and 11/4 at Michigan St 2.5 46
Billy Kemp (Virginia), so Rhule and Satterfield will use a lot of formations with ODDS TO WIN
11/11 MARYLAND 2 50
fullbacks and multiple tight ends, including Georgia transfer Arik Gilbert.
11/18 at Wisconsin 11 54
60-1 BIG TEN
DEFENSE
Nebraska ranked 11th in the conference for total defense. Enter Tony White, 11/24 IOWA 4 51.5
who comes in from Syracuse as defensive coordinator. White was a protégé of
Rocky Long and brought in the 3-3-5 defense. However, White will switch from
a 3-3-5 base to a 4-2-5, a 4-3, or even a 3-4. The Huskers want to create chaos
ODDS TO WIN
to control the line of scrimmage. RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 200-1
15
NATIONAL
The group returns its top three tacklers – linebacker Luke Reimer (86),
defensive back Myles Farmer (73), and nickel Isaac Gifford (70). Linebacker STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

Nick Heinrich was limited to five starts last season after starting all of 2021.
The backer corps adds two Power Five transfers with MJ Sherman (Georgia)
and Chief Borders (Florida). The entire defensive line is new except for Ty
Robinson. The secondary could be the unit’s strength with all five starters
returning, including Farmer, plus two good cover corners with Quinton
Newsome and Malcolm Hartzog.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 4-8
OUTLOOK STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Rhule has proven he can turn around programs in a rapid manner, and he Points Per Game 21.2 101 28.5 75 8/27 vs. Northwestern (-11) 28-31 L L
has never had the resources that he will have at Nebraska. However, he has Yards Per Point 15.9 102 14.9 48 9/3 N DAKOTA (-29) 38-17 W L
never had this kind of pressure at the college level. Nebraska could be a Plays Per Game 66.2 109 9/10 GA SOUTHERN (-23.5) 42-45 L L
sleeping giant, and the university leadership finally elected to bring in a fresh
perspective instead of looking for the next Tom Osborne. Time of Possession 27:04 122 9/17 OKLAHOMA (11) 14-49 L L
3rd Down Conv. % 39.0% 56 42.6% 102 10/1 INDIANA (-6.5) 35-21 W W
This program will likely be very good again in due time and can tap into a Total Yards Per Game 335.8 102 424.3 102 10/7 at Rutgers (-3) 14-13 W L
wide array of NIL sources. They will show signs this year, and they get a break
in the schedule, avoiding both Penn State and Ohio State. However, they will Yards Per Play 5.1 88 5.5 64 10/15 at Purdue (14) 37-43 L W
show growing pains learning new schemes on both sides of the ball. A six-win Rush Attempts Per Game 34.4 85 10/29 ILLINOIS (7.5) 9-26 L L
season and bowl eligibility could happen, but that looks to be the ceiling for Rush Yards Per Game 112.5 107 190.4 105 11/5 MINNESOTA (15) 13-20 L W
Year 1 under the new regime.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.3 115 4.5 93 11/12 at Michigan (30.5) 3-34 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 29.1 94 11/19 WISCONSIN (10) 14-15 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 59.7% 75 59.0% 47 11/25 at Iowa (10.5) 24-17 W W

UNDER 6
Passing Yards Per Game 223.4 74 233.9 73
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.7 47 6.9 44
Turnovers 1.5 83 1.4 70

78
 NORTHWESTERN HEAD COACH: DAVID BRAUN (1ST)
WILDCATS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MIKE BAJAKIAN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DAVID BRAUN

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #80 OF 133

The Northwestern Wildcats were 1-11 and 1-8 in the conference last year and
were coming into 2023 with a great deal of uncertainty. However, one thing
was constant and steady, and that was head coach Pat Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald
was a two-time Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and two-time All-American
POWER RATING 38.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #13 OF 14

here at his alma mater and had been on the Northwestern staff since 2001,
serving as head coach since 2006. Even with the Wildcats’ recent struggles
on the field, Fitzgerald was safe as the program’s steward, until he was not.
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
On July 10th, he was terminated amid allegations of hazing towards players
who had poor performance. Now David Braun, who was hired as defensive 9/3 at Rutgers 2 38.5
SCHEDULE 44.83
coordinator from North Dakota State, will serve as the Wildcats interim head
9/9 UTEP -10.5 30
STRENGTH #46 TOUGHEST OF 133
coach.

OFFENSE
9/16 at Duke 11.5 47.5
FIELD 1.8 / -0.4
Offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian was retained despite the offense
finishing 128th nationally in scoring (13.8 points per game), 123rd in yards
9/23 MINNESOTA
9/30 PENN ST
10.5
21.5
50.5
61.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

per play (4.54), and 130th in turnovers (31). Ben Bryant (2731 yards, 61%
completions, 21-7 TD-INT last season) was brought in from Cincinnati after 10/7 HOWARD -30.5 10.5
spring practice and should be the starter at quarterback. Brendan Sullivan and
2023 ODDS
10/21 at Nebraska 9.5 46
Ryan Hilinski split starts last season.
10/28 MARYLAND 9.5 50
The top three receivers are gone from last year, but there may be more talent 11/4 vs. Iowa 12.5 51.5
at the position with Arizona State transfer Cam Johnson coming over, plus
11/11 at Wisconsin 18.5 54 ODDS TO WIN
Bryce Kirtz and Jacob Gill stepping into bigger roles. The biggest holes on
offense are at running back, where Evan Hull and his 2,732 yards of offense 11/18 PURDUE 6 46
300-1 BIG TEN
the last two seasons must be replaced. Plus, tackle Peter Skoronski was a first-
round draft pick last spring and departs from an offensive line that returns just 11/25 at Illinois 15 50
one starter. Cam Porter is back after limited 2022 action while recovering from
a torn ACL.

DEFENSE ODDS TO WIN

RETURNING OFFENSE: 4 QB 1000-1
12
NATIONAL

STARTERS
Braun will still maintain his role as defensive coordinator in addition to his
responsibilities as interim head coach. He mainly uses a 4-2-5 alignment. The CHAMPIONSHIP
DEFENSE: 8
secondary is probably the strongest unit in this group, with safety Rod Heard II.
Coco Azema suffered a season-ending injury and returns to the back five, along
with Jeremiah Lewis (70 tackles).

Leading tackler (100) Bryce Gallagher returns at linebacker, along with Xander
Mueller (87 tackles). Sean McLaughlin and Aidan Hubbard return at end, but
the Wildcats only had one scholarship tackle on the roster, Najee Story, so they
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 1-11, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 5-7
picked up Matt Lawson (Fresno State) and Richie Hagarty (Southern Illinois) in STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
the portal. Braun wants this group to think less and play faster, but this group
Points Per Game 12.8 129 28.1 68 8/27 vs. Nebraska (11) 31-28 W W
still lacks the speed to compete.
Yards Per Point 25.9 131 13.4 90 9/10 DUKE (-10) 23-31 L L
OUTLOOK Plays Per Game 74.2 31 9/17 S ILLINOIS (-13.5) 24-31 L L
Northwestern lost 11 straight games last season after defeating Nebraska in Time of Possession 29:01 84 9/24 MIAMI OHIO (-8) 14-17 L L
the season opener held in Dublin, Ireland. They are 4-20 over the last two
3rd Down Conv. % 37.5% 78 43.0% 104 10/1 at Penn St (25) 7-17 L W
seasons. While the facilities have been upgraded, the product on the field was
declining and apparently off the field as well. There were already five new Total Yards Per Game 331.5 105 376.1 50 10/8 WISCONSIN (10.5) 7-42 L L
assistant coaches on defense, including Braun. Now the program’s leader over Yards Per Play 4.5 119 5.5 66 10/22 at Maryland (14) 24-31 L W
the last 17 years is gone. Perhaps, the Wildcats show character to rally and Rush Attempts Per Game 38.5 43 10/29 at Iowa (11) 13-33 L L
give an honest effort week in and week out, but this season’s prospects look
bleak in Evanston. Rush Yards Per Game 121.5 96 199.7 113 11/5 OHIO ST (37.5) 7-21 L W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.2 121 4.8 100 11/12 at Minnesota (17) 3-31 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 34 46 11/19 at Purdue (17.5) 9-17 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 58.3% 87 58.2% 32 11/26 ILLINOIS (15) 3-41 L L

UNDER 3.5
Passing Yards Per Game 210.1 89 176.4 10
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.2 113 7.1 55
Turnovers 2.4 128 1 113

79
 OHIO STATE HEAD COACH: RYAN DAY (5TH)
BUCKEYES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRIAN HARTLINE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JIM KNOWLES

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #2 OF 133

Ohio State was a missed field goal away from advancing to the National Championship
Game. They were 11-2 and finished fourth in the AP Poll, but that is not good enough in
Columbus, as the Buckeyes went away empty-handed last year in the trophy department. POWER RATING 69 CONFERENCE RANK: #1 OF 14

Three first-round picks – quarterback CJ Stroud, wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and
tackle Paris Johnson Jr. – are gone from the offense, but Ohio State always reloads on
that side of the ball and still has the best skill position group in the country courtesy of
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
one of the nation’s best recruiters in Brian Hartline, who takes over this year as offensive
coordinator and returns seven starters. The big question is the same as it was last year in 9/2 at Indiana -28 39
SCHEDULE 47.65
Columbus. Can this defense play at a championship level?
9/9 YOUNGSTOWN ST -45 28
STRENGTH #17 TOUGHEST OF 133

3.4 / 0.5
OFFENSE
Even without CJ Stroud, this will be a top-five offense in FBS. Kyle McCord is still the
9/16 W KENTUCKY -31.5 40.5
FIELD
9/23 at Notre Dame -8 58.5
favorite to get the nod at quarterback, but Devin Brown will challenge. The offense starts
with wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.. (77-1263-14), McCord’s high school teammate at 10/7 MARYLAND -22.5 50
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
St. Joseph’s Prep in Philadelphia. Emeka Egbuka (74-1151-10), Julian Fleming (34-533-
6), and tight end Cade Stover (36-406-5) round out the nation’s top receiving corps. 10/14 at Purdue -21.5 46
10/21 PENN ST -10.5 61.5
The Buckeyes also have a two-headed monster in the backfield with TreVeyon Henderson
and Miyan Williams (combined 1,396 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns). 10/28 at Wisconsin -13 54
2023 ODDS
11/4 at Rutgers -29 38.5
The offensive line is a bit of a question mark, losing three starters, including both

+165
tackles, to the NFL, but there are loads of high-level recruits waiting to take their 11/11 MICHIGAN ST -26.5 46 ODDS TO WIN
place. Hartline is the new offensive coordinator, but how much of the play-calling BIG TEN
11/18 MINNESOTA -21.5 50.5
responsibilities will Ryan Day cede to him?
11/25 at Michigan 1 67
DEFENSE
Jim Knowles made some improvements with this group in his first season as defensive
coordinator. However, this unit was gashed in its two biggest games – Michigan and
ODDS TO WIN
+650
Georgia – allowing an average of 43.5 points and 8.9 yards per play. Nevertheless, the
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7

14
group did allow 50 yards less per game while learning Knowles’s new 4-2-5 scheme. NATIONAL

JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer are arguably the best defensive end tandem in college
football but need to produce more than the eight combined sacks of last season. Michael
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

Hall Jr. is also a disruptor against the run. Tommy Eichenberg (120 tackles) and Steele
Chambers had breakout seasons last year at linebacker.

Denzel Burke may be the shutdown corner they have been looking for the last few
seasons. Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist Lathan Ransom is also back at safety, but Sonny 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
Styles may be the star of the group. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 11-2, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 10-3
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 44.2 2 21 17 9/3 NOTRE DAME (-17) 21-10 W L
Michigan has certainly closed the gap with Ohio State, but the Buckeyes still have the Yards Per Point 11.1 1 15.3 41 9/10 ARKANSAS ST (-44.5) 45-12 W L
most talented roster in the conference, player for player. While both highly touted,
Plays Per Game 68.3 93 9/17 TOLEDO (-31) 77-21 W W
McCord and Brown are still unproven at the quarterback position; however, the skill
position players can make any signal-caller look great. The defense also must create a Time of Possession 30:44 46 9/24 WISCONSIN (-19) 52-21 W W
more substantial pass rush. 3rd Down Conv. % 45.2% 26 30.0% 8 10/1 RUTGERS (-39) 49-10 W T
Total Yards Per Game 490.7 9 321.5 12 10/8 at Michigan St (-27.5) 49-20 W W
Ohio State has ended its season with back-to-back losses in consecutive years for the
first time since 2011. The schedule is also much tougher with road trips to Notre Dame, Yards Per Play 7.2 1 5 29 10/22 IOWA (-29) 54-10 W W
Wisconsin, and of course, Michigan. The total of 10.5 is the right number. The Buckeyes Rush Attempts Per Game 35.8 70 10/29 at Penn St (-16) 44-31 W L
likely lose at least one of those road trips and could be upset at home by a rejuvenated Rush Yards Per Game 192.4 27 121.1 23 11/5 at Northwestern (-37.5) 21-7 W L
Penn State program.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.4 9 3.5 21 11/12 INDIANA (-40) 56-14 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 31.5 69 11/19 at Maryland (-26) 43-30 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 66.8% 11 58.9% 46 11/26 MICHIGAN (-9) 23-45 L L

UNDER 10.5
Passing Yards Per Game 298.3 12 200.5 26 12/31 vs. Georgia (5) 41-42 L W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 9.5 3 7.2 67
Turnovers 0.8 7 1.4 68

80
 PENN STATE HEAD COACH: JAMES FRANKLIN (10TH)
NITTANY LIONS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MIKE YURCICH
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MANNY DIAZ / ANTHONY POINDEXTER

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #8 OF 133

After two down years in Happy Valley, James Franklin and the Nittany Lions
re-emerged with an 11-2 season and a Rose Bowl victory over Utah. On the
downside, they did not beat Michigan or Ohio State and were swept by the “big
two” for the second straight season.
POWER RATING 61.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #3 OF 14

Despite still being picked in their usual spot of third in the Big Ten East,
expectations are high in State College with five-star Drew Allar, a former 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Mr. Football in Ohio, taking over at quarterback, plus the rediscovery of the
running game led by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Manny Diaz also
9/2 WEST VIRGINIA -19.5 45
SCHEDULE 44.30
revitalized the defense in his first year as defensive coordinator. Franklin could
have his best team at Penn State this year, but they are 3-9 combined against 9/9 DELAWARE -36.5 27.5
STRENGTH #51 TOUGHEST OF 133
Michigan and Ohio State since 2017.

OFFENSE
9/16 at Illinois
9/23 IOWA
-9
-12
50
51.5
FIELD 2.5 / 0.4
True freshmen Singleton and Allen combined to rush for 1.928 yards and
22 touchdowns last year, and Penn State’s sluggish running game became 9/30 at Northwestern -21.5 38.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

a thing of the past. Expect that production to continue behind an offensive

line that returns six that started at least five games in 2022, including likely 10/14 MASSACHUSETTS -47 17.5
first-rounder Olu Fashanu at left tackle. That is music to Allar’s ears as he takes 10/21 at Ohio St 10.5 69
over at quarterback for Sean Clifford.
10/28 INDIANA -25 39
2023 ODDS
However, the Nittany Lions have struggled to develop receiver depth in recent 11/4 at Maryland -9.5 50
years which led Franklin to not only make a position coach change there, but
+600
to also hit the transfer portal, nabbing Dante Cephas (Kent State) and Malik 11/11 MICHIGAN 3.5 67 ODDS TO WIN
McClain (Florida State). KeAndre Lambert-Smith is the leading returner, and he BIG TEN
had an 88-yard touchdown catch in the Rose Bowl. Penn State is always good 11/18 RUTGERS -25.5 38.5
at tight end and will be again with Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren. 11/24 vs. Michigan St -15 46
DEFENSE
Diaz returns eight starters from a group that ranked in the top 10 nationally
for points allowed, yards per play, red zone defense, takeaways, and opponent ODDS TO WIN
completion percentage. Safety Keaton Ellis and corner Kalen King (21 passes RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 25-1
16
NATIONAL
defended – No. 1 in Big Ten) return for a secondary that only gave up 12
touchdown passes last season, leading the Nittany Lions to rank second
nationally in pass efficiency defense. They will have to replace Joey Porter Jr.
STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

and Ji’Ayir Brown though.

Outside linebacker Abdul Carter (6.5 sacks, 10.5 TFL) had a breakout season
last year. Curtis Jacobs (four sacks) returns alongside him. Up front, Penn
State brings back 10 of their top 12 linemen, including ends Adisa Isaac and
Chop Robinson, who combined for 9.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss. Dani
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
Dennis-Sutton could emerge as the next great pass rusher in the program as he OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 11-2, ATS: 9-3, O/U: 9-4
dominated the Spring Game. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 35.8 15 18.2 9 9/1 at Purdue (-3.5) 35-31 W W
OUTLOOK Yards Per Point 12.1 7 17.8 10 9/10 OHIO U (-28) 46-10 W W
Penn State’s talent is not that far below Michigan or Ohio State. In fact, at Plays Per Game 71.6 53 9/17 at Auburn (-2.5) 41-12 W W
most positions, it is on par. However, toughness has not been on par with those
programs until it showed late last season. The Nittany Lions played a lot more Time of Possession 30:36 51 9/24 C MICHIGAN (-28) 33-14 W L
physically last year and a lot less finesse. Michigan started doing that a couple 3rd Down Conv. % 37.8% 76 33.5% 21 10/1 NORTHWESTERN (-25) 17-7 W L
of years ago and they have had two straight CFP appearances. Total Yards Per Game 433.8 32 323.8 14 10/15 at Michigan (7) 17-41 L L
If Allar lives up to expectations, Penn State has the team to challenge for its Yards Per Play 6.1 26 4.4 3 10/22 MINNESOTA (-5.5) 45-17 W W
first Big Ten title since 2016 and could be a dark horse CFP contender. They Rush Attempts Per Game 37.5 53 10/29 OHIO ST (16) 31-44 L W
must at least win one of the two against Michigan and Ohio State, but this year Rush Yards Per Game 181.2 40 112.2 16 11/5 at Indiana (-14) 45-14 W W
they could win both.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.8 37 3.3 13 11/12 MARYLAND (-10.5) 30-0 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.5 57 11/19 at Rutgers (-18.5) 55-10 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.0% 34 52.0% 2 11/26 MICHIGAN ST (-19) 35-16 W T

OVER 9.5
Passing Yards Per Game 252.5 45 211.6 36 1/2 vs. Utah (-1.5) 35-21 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.8 42 5.8 4
Turnovers 1.1 22 2 8

81
 PURDUE HEAD COACH: RYAN WALTERS (1ST)
BOILERMAKERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: GRAHAM HARRELL
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KEVIN KANE

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #50 OF 133

The allure of returning home to his alma mater was too much for Jeff Brohm to
turn down, as he is now back at Louisville. Brohm was clearly an offensive-first
guy, so what typically happens is that the next hire is the opposite, and Ryan
Walters is a defense-first coach, having served last as the defensive coordinator
POWER RATING 46 CONFERENCE RANK: #9 OF 14

at Illinois.
2023 SCHEDULE
The Boilermakers benefitted from the easiest schedule and won the battle of DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
attrition that was the Big Ten West in 2022. They ended their season being
9/2 FRESNO ST -5.5 42.5
SCHEDULE 49.28
blown out by Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game and embarrassed in
the Citrus Bowl by LSU, 63-7. Only 11 starters (6 offense, 5 defense) come back 9/9 at Virginia Tech -4.5 39.5
STRENGTH #4 TOUGHEST OF 133
for Walters and his new staff’s first year in West Lafayette.

OFFENSE
9/16 SYRACUSE -1.5 47
FIELD 2.2 / 0.2
Although the Brohms (head coach Jeff and offensive coordinator brother
9/22 WISCONSIN
9/30 ILLINOIS
6
2
54
50
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Brian) are gone, Purdue will still throw the ball a great deal. New offensive
coordinator Graham Harrell comes in from West Virginia, and his offenses are 10/7 at Iowa 8 51.5
more balanced. However, Harrell played at Texas Tech, where he learned this
2023 ODDS
Air Raid offense under the late Mike Leach. 10/14 OHIO ST 21.5 69
10/28 at Nebraska 1.5 46
Aidan O’Connell has gone to the NFL, but Hudson Card (1,523 yards, 11 TDs
in three seasons) transfers in from Texas and will inherit the starting job. 11/4 at Michigan 24 67
Devin Mockobee (195-968-9) is a former walk-on but is probably the best back 11/11 MINNESOTA 2.5 50.5 ODDS TO WIN
Purdue has had in years. Tyrone Tracy Jr. also moves from receiver to running
11/18 at Northwestern -6 38.5
100-1 BIG TEN
back to give a speed option and complement Mockobee’s inside running. Four
starters return up front, so perhaps there will be a more run-heavy emphasis at 11/25 INDIANA -9.5 39
least early in the season. TJ Sheffield (46-480-4) and Mershawn Rice (23-283-
1) are the leading returning receivers.

DEFENSE ODDS TO WIN

RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 300-1
11
Kevin Kane comes in with Walters from the Illinois staff and will serve as the NATIONAL
new defensive coordinator. He likes to put five players at or around the line
scrimmage with a 3-4 scheme. Under Walters, Illinois led the nation in scoring STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

defense and were third for total defense in 2022.

The strength of this group is at outside linebacker, as Kydran Jenkins (four

sacks, seven QB hurries, forced fumble) and potential star Nic Caraway return.
In the secondary, Purdue returns safeties Cam Allen (three interceptions, two 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
fumble recoveries) and leading tackler Sanoussi Kane (72 tackles, 4.5 TFLs). OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-6, ATS: 5-9, O/U: 9-5
Salim Turner-Muhammad transfers in from Stanford to start at corner. The STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
defensive line is brand new, and transfer Isaiah Nichols (Arkansas) will need to Points Per Game 24.3 83 29.5 84 9/1 PENN ST (3.5) 31-35 L L
make an immediate impact.
Yards Per Point 16.1 109 13.1 106 9/10 INDIANA ST (-37) 56-0 W W
OUTLOOK Plays Per Game 77.1 14 9/17 at Syracuse (1.5) 29-32 L L
Brohm always looked at Purdue as a stepping stone, and a parting of the ways Time of Possession 31:46 26 9/24 FLA ATLANTIC (-16) 28-26 W L
could benefit both sides here. The Boilers will be better defensively than most 3rd Down Conv. % 36.8% 87 35.8% 39 10/1 at Minnesota (9) 20-10 W W
would think. They had to rely on the portal a little more with the coaching Total Yards Per Game 390.5 60 384.6 64 10/8 at Maryland (3) 31-29 W W
change in its first year. The schedule is tough with a road trip to Virginia Tech
and having to play Ohio State and Michigan, which is why the 5.5-win total is Yards Per Play 5.1 89 5.8 98 10/15 NEBRASKA (-14) 43-37 W L
heavily juiced to the Under, but this could be the surprising team in the West. It Rush Attempts Per Game 32.5 100 10/22 at Wisconsin (1.5) 24-35 L L
will all depend on how quickly Card picks up the offense. Rush Yards Per Game 113.2 105 149.6 58 11/5 IOWA (-3.5) 3-24 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.5 101 4.4 88 11/12 at Illinois (6) 31-24 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 42.4 6 11/19 NORTHWESTERN (-17.5) 17-9 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 62.3% 49 58.0% 31 11/26 at Indiana (-10) 30-16 W W

OVER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 277.3 21 235 77 12/3 vs. Michigan (15) 22-43 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.5 98 7.7 99 1/2 vs. LSU (15) 7-63 L L
Turnovers 1.7 100 1.3 79

82
 RUTGERS HEAD COACH: GREG SCHIANO (4TH)
SCARLET KNIGHTS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KIRK CIARROCCA
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOE HARASYMIAK

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #81 OF 133

In the mid-2000s, Greg Schiano turned around a dormant Rutgers program
and led them to winning seasons and bowl appearances in six of his last seven
seasons in Piscataway before leaving to become the head coach of the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers in 2012. However, that was when Rutgers was a member of the
POWER RATING 38.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #14 OF 14

Big East. Engineering a turnaround, the second time around, is substantially

more difficult in the Big Ten, as Schiano is finding out. There has been a great 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
deal of turnover in the coaching staff in recent years and the buzz around
Schiano’s second act has dissipated. 9/3 NORTHWESTERN -2 38.5
SCHEDULE 44.65
9/9 TEMPLE -7 33.5
STRENGTH #47 TOUGHEST OF 133
OFFENSE
Rutgers had one of the worst offenses in the Power Five last season, averaging
just 13 points per game (128th nationally) and 254.5 yards per game (130th
9/16 VIRGINIA TECH
9/23 at Michigan
-1
31.5
39.5
67
FIELD 1.8 / 0.1
nationally) against FBS opponents. Schiano revamped the staff and brought
9/30 WAGNER -54 -13
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
back Kirk Ciarrocca as offensive coordinator for his second stint with the
program, as well as receivers coach Dave Brock and offensive line coach Pat 10/7 at Wisconsin 18 54
Flaherty. 10/14 MICHIGAN ST 5.5 46
Gavin Wimsatt returns at quarterback but only completed 44.8 percent of his 10/21 at Indiana 2.5 39
2023 ODDS
passes (second lowest in FBS). That should improve with a more run-based 11/4 OHIO ST 29 69
offense with simpler concepts. The Scarlet Knights do lose their top three ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Iowa 16 51.5
receivers so expect H-back/tight end Johnny Langan and Northern Illinois
11/18 at Penn St 25.5 61.5
1000-1 BIG TEN
transfer Naseim Brantley to pick up more of the load. Samuel Brown V was
emerging as a potential star back before a foot injury midseason. 11/25 MARYLAND 9.5 50

DEFENSE
Eight starters are back for a solid defense that unlike the offense keeps its
ODDS TO WIN
entire coaching staff intact. Also, 14 of the top 19 tacklers are back, including RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 QB 990-1
14
NATIONAL

STARTERS
linebackers Deion Jennings (91 tackles) and Tyreem Powell (71 tackles, three CHAMPIONSHIP
sacks). Mohamed Toure and Moses Walker also return from knee injuries to DEFENSE: 8
provide depth for a strong backer group. This unit ranked top 25 in multiple
categories last season but often ran out of gas because the anemic offense
forced them to be on the field far too often.

OUTLOOK
The defense will keep this team in some games, so they will have opportunities
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 5-6, O/U: 6-6
to cover as big underdogs, but the schedule is tough with a home date versus STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Virginia Tech and crossover games on the road against Big Ten West opponents Points Per Game 13 128 31.3 103 9/3 at Boston College (9) 22-21 W W
Wisconsin and Iowa. 19.7 124 11.8 126
Yards Per Point 9/10 WAGNER (-48.5) 66-7 W W
Plays Per Game 64.3 122 9/17 at Temple (-18.5) 16-14 W L
Offensively, they are still a work in progress despite the upgrade at offensive
coordinator with Ciarrocca. They did not bring in any help at quarterback Time of Possession 28:54 87 9/24 IOWA (7.5) 10-27 L L
from the transfer portal, and that will show again because both Wimsatt and 3rd Down Conv. % 25.8% 129 35.0% 31 10/1 at Ohio St (39) 10-49 L T
Evan Simon played poorly last year. The Rutgers brass still has way too high Total Yards Per Game 255.5 130 368.5 45 10/7 NEBRASKA (3) 13-14 L W
expectations, and this is going to take time to get this program competitive in Yards Per Play 4 129 5.2 47 10/22 INDIANA (-3) 24-17 W W
the Big Ten. Rush Attempts Per Game 34 88 10/29 at Minnesota (14) 0-31 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 110.9 109 154.3 67 11/5 MICHIGAN (26) 17-52 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.3 117 4.3 72 11/12 at Michigan St (10) 21-27 L W
Pass Attempts Per Game 27.9 100 11/19 PENN ST (18.5) 10-55 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 49.8% 124 59.2% 50 11/26 at Maryland (14.5) 0-37 L L

UNDER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 144.5 123 214.2 40
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.2 128 6.6 26
Turnovers 1.7 101 1.1 104

83
 WISCONSIN HEAD COACH: LUKE FICKELL (1ST)
BADGERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: PHIL LONGO
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: COLIN HITSCHLER / MIKE TRESSEL

BY WES REYNOLDS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #19 OF 133

The Badgers had a disappointing season at 7-6. Paul Chryst was let go
midseason, and former Badger and defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard served
as interim coach. Wisconsin elected to go outside the family and go big with
the hire of Luke Fickell, who took non-Power Five Cincinnati to the CFP two
POWER RATING 54 CONFERENCE RANK: #4 OF 14

years ago. Fickell is back in the Big Ten, where he spent nearly two decades as
a player and coach at Ohio State. Expectations are certainly high in Madison
with this hire, and they are hungry for a winner considering the Badgers
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
suffered their first losing conference record since 2008.
9/2 BUFFALO -25 31.5
SCHEDULE 44.37
OFFENSE
9/9 at Washington St -5.5 46
STRENGTH #50 TOUGHEST OF 133
Fickell hired North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo to install an
FIELD 2.7 / 0.3
up-tempo Air Raid attack. The trigger for said attack is SMU transfer Tanner 9/16 GA SOUTHERN -24 33
Mordecai, who threw for 7,152 yards and 72 touchdowns the past two seasons.
9/22 at Purdue -6 46
Despite the philosophical change on offense, this is Wisconsin after all, and
they will still run the football frequently. 10/7 RUTGERS -18 38.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Fickell brought two transfers from Cincinnati – Jake Renfro and Joe Huber 10/14 IOWA -5 51.5
– to start on the offensive line. Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi are one of 10/21 at Illinois -1.5 50
the nation’s best running back tandems, combining for 3,798 yards and 30
touchdowns over the past two seasons. 10/28 OHIO ST 13 69
2023 ODDS
11/4 at Indiana -13 39
The Badgers return their top three receivers with Chimere Dike, Skyler Bell,
+750
11/11 NORTHWESTERN -18.5 38.5 ODDS TO WIN
and Keontez Lewis, but they only combined for 97 receptions. Fickell and
Longo hit the portal to bring in Bryson Green (Oklahoma State), Will Pauling BIG TEN
11/18 NEBRASKA -11 46
and Quincy Burroughs (Cincinnati), and CJ Williams (USC).
11/25 at Minnesota -1 50.5
DEFENSE
Mike Tressel replaces Leonhard as defensive coordinator and will blend some
of his successful schemes with the 3-3-5 that he and Fickell used with a lot of
ODDS TO WIN
success in Cincinnati. Inside linebacker Maema Njongmeta led last year’s group RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 70-1
17
NATIONAL

STARTERS
with 95 tackles. He returns along with Jordan Turner (68 tackles). Strong
safety Hunter Wohler missed seven games with a leg injury last year and now CHAMPIONSHIP
DEFENSE: 8
inherits a hybrid safety/linebacker role. Alexander Smith and Ricardo Hallman
return as the starting corners. Up front, defensive linemen Isaiah Mullens,
Rodas Johnson, and James Thompson Jr.. combined for 14 tackles for loss last
season but will be expected to make more plays.

OUTLOOK
Fickell looks to be the most impactful new hire in 2023. His offenses at
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 7-6
Cincinnati were very good with less talent than he has and will be able to STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
recruit to Wisconsin. He has always been an excellent defensive mind dating
Points Per Game 25.3 74 21.9 24 9/3 ILLINOIS ST (-36.5) 38-0 W W
back to his time at Ohio State. It will be interesting to see how Wisconsin
balances an offense built to run the football and the new installation of the Yards Per Point 14.1 59 14.1 70 9/10 WASHINGTON ST (-17.5) 14-17 L L
Air Raid. Plays Per Game 66.5 107 9/17 NEW MEXICO ST (-37.5) 66-7 W W
Time of Possession 31:15 34 9/24 at Ohio St (19) 21-52 L L
The Badgers avoid Penn State and Michigan on the schedule and get Ohio
3rd Down Conv. % 40.0% 48 32.5% 15 10/1 ILLINOIS (-6) 10-34 L L
State, the week after the Buckeyes host the Nittany Lions, at home, on October
28. Fickell gets a crack at his alma mater that did not trust him to be the head Total Yards Per Game 357.3 89 308.6 9 10/8 at Northwestern (-10.5) 42-7 W W
coach before they hired Urban Meyer. The nonconference schedule does have Yards Per Play 5.4 66 4.6 11 10/15 at Michigan St (-7) 28-34 L L
a tricky early trip to Washington State, but overall, this is a manageable slate. Rush Attempts Per Game 38.7 41 10/22 PURDUE (-1.5) 35-24 W W
The West is wide open, but the Badgers, despite all the transition, still are the
justifiable favorite as they have the most talent in the division. Rush Yards Per Game 176.3 45 102.8 10 11/5 MARYLAND (-5) 23-10 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.6 48 3 2 11/12 at Iowa (1) 10-24 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 25.8 119 11/19 at Nebraska (-10) 15-14 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 56.1% 102 58.5% 39 11/26 MINNESOTA (-3) 16-23 L L

OVER 8.5
Passing Yards Per Game 180.9 115 205.8 30 12/27 vs. Oklahoma St (-5.5) 24-17 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7 78 7 51
Turnovers 1.5 72 1.5 51

84
big 12
betting preview
Oddsmakers and the Big 12 media poll agree on Texas as the preseason favorite to win the conference, but it’s unlikely to be that simple. Often
underachievers, the Longhorns have not won the league since 2009. Will coach Steve Sarkisian, who’s 13-12 after a shaky two seasons in Austin, end the
embarrassing dry spell? Sarkisian is not the best coach in the conference, and third-year sophomore Quinn Ewers is probably not the top quarterback in
the conference, yet Texas has the most talented team on paper. This is the Longhorns’ last chance because Texas and Oklahoma are leaving the Big 12 for
the SEC after this season.

The new-look Big 12 has 14 teams, so it’s bigger — with additions BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF — and could briefly be better than ever. Oklahoma,
which won six straight conference titles from 2015 to 2020, and Texas often shape the national perception of this league. However, Kansas State is the
conference’s defending champion, and TCU reached last season’s national championship game. The gap between the Big 12 and SEC was obvious in the
bowl season when the Horned Frogs were crushed 65-7 by Georgia and the Wildcats were manhandled by Alabama. The preseason media poll ranks
Kansas State second, Oklahoma third, Texas Tech fourth and TCU fifth. The Wildcats have arguably the conference’s best coach in Chris Klieman, and the
Sooners have the top-rated quarterback, Dillon Gabriel.

DraftKings lists Texas at 22-1 odds to win the national championship. The Longhorns are +105 favorites in the Big 12, followed by Oklahoma (+340),
Kansas State (+500), Texas Tech (12-1), TCU (16-1) and Baylor (18-1). Texas can make an early statement, for better or worse, in its heavyweight fight at
Alabama on September 9. The Longhorns should have won last season’s battle in Austin, but that was a familiar frustration for a program that has allowed
too many opportunities to slip away.

2023 PROJECTED STANDINGS (BASED ON STEVE MAKINEN RATINGS)

2023 Schedule Strength All Games Conference Games DraftKings
Team SM PR (Rank) PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's O/U
TEXAS 62.5 49.02 (6) 9.4 2.6 7.2 1.8 9.5
OKLAHOMA 57.5 45.09 (40) 9.4 2.6 6.6 2.4 9.5
TEXAS TECH 54 47.5 (20) 7.6 4.4 5.3 3.7 7.5
KANSAS ST 53 47.58 (18) 7.6 4.4 5.2 3.8 7.5
BAYLOR 52 43.78 (58) 7.4 4.6 5.1 3.9 7.5
TCU 53 45.39 (36) 7.5 4.5 4.8 4.2 7.5
UCF 50 44.03 (56) 7.2 4.8 4.7 4.3 6.5
OKLAHOMA ST 47.5 44.51 (48) 6.7 5.3 4.5 4.5 6.5
IOWA ST 48.5 48.85 (7) 5.9 6.1 3.8 5.2 5.5
CINCINNATI 43.5 44.1 (55) 5.6 6.4 3.5 5.5 5.5
BYU 46 45.53 (35) 5.6 6.4 3.4 5.6 5.5
WEST VIRGINIA 45 46.83 (24) 4.9 7.1 3.3 5.7 4.5
KANSAS 46 47.9 (15) 5.3 6.7 3.1 5.9 6
HOUSTON 43.5 46.77 (25) 4.9 7.1 2.7 6.3 4.5

85
 BAYLOR HEAD COACH: DAVE ARANDA (4TH)
BEARS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JEFF GRIMES
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MATT POWLEDGE

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #26 OF 133

After a 12-2 finish and Sugar Bowl win in coach Dave Aranda’s second season,
some picked Baylor to win the Big 12 in 2022. The Bears were 6-3 before
dropping their final four games to Kansas State, TCU, Texas and Air Force.
POWER RATING 52 CONFERENCE RANK: #6 OF 14

The 29-28 loss to the Horned Frogs in Waco was a big disappointment, but it
showed Baylor’s potential. Aranda has the quarterback in place for a bounce- 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
back year.
9/2 TEXAS ST UNIV -28 27.5
SCHEDULE 43.78
OFFENSE 9/9 UTAH 4 59
STRENGTH #58 TOUGHEST OF 133

FIELD 3.2 / 0.3

He’s not hyped as one of the league’s elite quarterbacks, but junior Blake 9/16 LIU POST -53.5 2
Shapen has that ability. Shapen passed for 18 touchdowns last year and will 9/23 TEXAS 7 62.5
get better. Dominic Richardson, a transfer from Oklahoma State, could be the 9/30 at UCF 0.5 50
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

top running back. Richard Reese, the leading returning rusher with 972 yards
10/7 TEXAS TECH -1.5 54
and 14 touchdowns, also will get carries in a backfield loaded with talent.
10/21 at Cincinnati -5.5 43.5
While the tight ends and wideouts are experienced, the line is inexperienced
and may go through growing pains. Still, the offense should stay around last 10/28 IOWA ST -6.5 48.5
2023 ODDS
year’s 32.2 points per game because Shapen is more of a passing threat, and 11/4 HOUSTON -11.5 43.5
the ground attack will be potent. 11/11 at Kansas St 4 53 ODDS TO WIN

11/18 at TCU 3 53
18-1 BIG 12

DEFENSE 11/25 WEST VIRGINIA -10.5 45

Aranda, a former defensive coordinator at LSU and Wisconsin, can be counted
on to develop a strong defense. He’s got a few of the conference’s best to build
around in senior end Gabe Hall and linebackers Matt Jones and Mike Smith. ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 200-1
12
Only five starters are returning, but Aranda will get the job done. NATIONAL

OUTLOOK
STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

Baylor is picked sixth in the league’s preseason media poll and has a chance
to crack the top four with some close-game luck, unlike a year ago when it
was more bad luck. Texas State and Long Island are a couple of cupcake home
opponents. The Bears should be live ‘dogs in September home games against
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 9-4
Utah and Texas. If Aranda is 3-3 through six games, he’ll be OK with that STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
coming out of the bye because the schedule softens a lot in the second half of Points Per Game 29.1 51 28.3 72 9/3 ALBANY (-42.5) 69-10 W W
the season. Aside from a November 11 game at Kansas State, Baylor will have Yards Per Point 13.8 46 13.5 87 9/10 at BYU (2.5) 20-26 L L
a good shot to win five of six down the stretch and at least push the win total Plays Per Game 73.1 40 9/17 TEXAS ST UNIV (-30) 42-7 W W
of 7, so lean Over. In a league full of good quarterbacks, the Bears will need Time of Possession 31:40 28 9/24 at Iowa St (2.5) 31-24 W W
Shapen to step up and win some of the close ones. 3rd Down Conv. % 38.7% 64 47.5% 122 10/1 OKLAHOMA ST (-2.5) 25-36 L L
Total Yards Per Game 400.8 50 382.2 59 10/13 at West Virginia (-3) 40-43 L L
Yards Per Play 5.5 58 5.3 53 10/22 KANSAS (-10.5) 35-23 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 41 20 10/29 at Texas Tech (1.5) 45-17 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 176.2 46 153.3 65 11/5 at Oklahoma (3) 38-35 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.3 59 3.9 45 11/12 KANSAS ST (-2.5) 3-31 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 30.4 79 11/19 TCU (2) 28-29 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.6% 55 62.4% 91 11/25 at Texas (10) 27-38 L L

OVER 7
Passing Yards Per Game 224.6 71 228.8 63 12/22 vs. Air Force (-3.5) 15-30 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 59 7.4 75
Turnovers 1.4 59 1.5 51

86
 BYU HEAD COACH: KALANI SITAKE (8TH)
COUGARS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: AARON RODERICK
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JAY HILL

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #53 OF 133

BYU could get buyer’s remorse about joining a power conference, especially
a brutally tough one. The Cougars went a combined 29-9 from 2020 to 2022,
but their strength of schedule is seriously cranked up this year with one SEC
POWER RATING 46 CONFERENCE RANK: #11 OF 14

opponent and nine in the Big 12. The good news for coach Kalani Sitake is he
has 15 starters returning and two cupcake opponents on the schedule in early 2023 SCHEDULE
September. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 SAM HOUSTON ST -25 23
SCHEDULE 45.53
OFFENSE
9/9 S UTAH -33.5 15.5
STRENGTH #35 TOUGHEST OF 133
Kedon Slovis, who had success early in his career at USC before transferring
to Pittsburgh, makes his third campus stop in Provo. Slovis posted pedestrian
numbers last year for the Panthers and is not guaranteed to win the starting
9/16 at Arkansas 8 52
FIELD 2.6 / 0.2
quarterback job, but he’s the favorite going to camp. Slovis passed for 30
9/23 at Kansas 1.5 46
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
9/29 CINCINNATI -5 43.5
touchdowns as a USC freshman in 2019, yet his numbers have declined each
10/14 at TCU 9 53
year. His competitors are junior college transfer Jake Retzlaff and Boise State

2023 ODDS
transfer Cade Fennegan. 10/21 TEXAS TECH 5 54
10/28 at Texas 19 62.5
The Cougars must replace Jaren Hall, who passed for 31 touchdowns last 11/4 at West Virginia 2 45
season before becoming a fifth-round pick by the Minnesota Vikings. BYU ODDS TO WIN
11/11 IOWA ST 0 48.5
returns eight starters and has its typical big, physical offensive line. Running
11/18 OKLAHOMA 9.5 57.5
80-1 BIG 12
back Aidan Robbins transferred from UNLV, where he rushed for 1,011 yards,
and should make a major impact. The pass-catching group looks solid with 11/25 at Oklahoma St 4 47.5
wideouts Kody Epps and Keanu Hill and 6-6 tight end Isaac Rex. While the
offensive numbers are likely to decline against a tougher schedule, BYU could
be dangerous if the QB position is in good hands. ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 400-1
14
NATIONAL
DEFENSE
Stopping the run was a problem a year ago, and that was never more evident
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

than in a 52-35 home loss to Arkansas. Junior end Tyler Batty is the top
returner on a line that adds Boise State transfers Jackson Cravens and Isaiah
Bagnah. The unit returns seven starters and appears improved, but the move
up to the Big 12 means there are better opposing offenses on the schedule. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 5-8, O/U: 8-5
OUTLOOK STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 29.6 47 29.8 86 9/3 at South Florida (-11.5) 50-21 W W
The Cougars can handle a power conference, which they proved by going 5-0
Yards Per Point 13.7 43 13.7 82 9/10 BAYLOR (-2.5) 26-20 W W
against Pac-12 opponents in 2021. BYU also beat Baylor in double overtime
Plays Per Game 63.3 125 9/17 at Oregon (4) 20-41 L L
last season. Sitake is not a strong game-management coach and could get
Time of Possession 28:55 86 9/24 WYOMING (-20.5) 38-24 W L
exposed further in the Big 12. The schedule is softer in the first half when BYU
3rd Down Conv. % 44.5% 29 48.2% 124 9/29 UTAH ST (-26) 38-26 W L
will be favored at home against Sam Houston, Southern Utah and Cincinnati. If
Total Yards Per Game 405.7 44 407.3 86 10/8 vs. Notre Dame (3.5) 20-28 L L
the Cougars are favorites in only one of their final seven games, it’s tough to
find six wins, so this call is a lean Under the total. Yards Per Play 6.4 17 5.8 93 10/15 ARKANSAS (-1) 35-52 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 32.6 99 10/22 at Liberty (-7) 14-41 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 173.2 50 181.8 100 10/28 EAST CAROLINA (-3) 24-27 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.3 10 4.6 96 11/5 at Boise St (9.5) 31-28 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 29.8 88 11/19 UTAH TECH (-38.5) 52-26 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 65.6% 19 69.5% 128 11/26 at Stanford (-6.5) 35-26 W W

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 232.5 60 225.5 57 12/17 vs. SMU (4.5) 24-23 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.8 40 7.6 85
Turnovers 0.7 3 0.9 120

87
 CINCINNATI HEAD COACH: SCOTT SATTERFIELD (1ST)
BEARCATS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRAD GLENN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRYAN BROWN / NATE FUQUA

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #63 OF 133

It’s a new era at Cincinnati, and new will not mean improved in this case. Scott
Satterfield was hired from Louisville to replace Luke Fickell, who coached the
Bearcats to a 31-5 record the past three years. Fickell left for Wisconsin prior
POWER RATING 43.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #13 OF 14

to Cincinnati’s 24-7 loss to Louisville in the Fenway Bowl. Satterfield did a

respectable job as Cardinals coach, but few fans there were sad to see him go. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE SCHEDULE 44.10
9/2 E KENTUCKY -23 23.5
Desmond Ridder and Ben Bryant were highly successful quarterbacks for the
9/9 at Pittsburgh 6 47.5
STRENGTH #55 TOUGHEST OF 133
Bearcats. The new starter will be Emory Jones, who won six games at Florida
in 2021 but went 1-6 at Arizona State last year before transferring. Jones
has posted solid passing numbers yet is more of a running threat. Cincinnati
9/16 MIAMI OHIO -12.5 34.5
FIELD 3.4 / 0.3
returns only two offensive starters after losing its leading rusher and every
9/23 OKLAHOMA 11 57.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
9/29 at BYU 5 46
wide receiver who contributed last year. Corey Kiner, a former LSU transfer, will
10/14 IOWA ST 1.5 48.5
be the starting running back in Satterfield’s ground-based attack. Unless Jones
turns into an electrifying playmaker in a new system, this should be one of the
Big 12’s worst offenses.
10/21 BAYLOR
10/28 at Oklahoma St
5.5
6.5
52
47.5
2023 ODDS
11/4 UCF 3 50
DEFENSE ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Houston 1.5 43.5
It’s not all bad news for the Bearcats, who expect their defensive line to be 120-1 BIG 12
among the league’s best. Jowon Briggs and Dontay Corleone anchor the front, 11/18 at West Virginia 4 45
which is the strength of the team. Six starters come back, but linebacker Ivan 11/25 KANSAS -1.5 46
Pace will be difficult to replace after the All-American led the team with 137
tackles and 10 sacks. A defense that allowed only 16.9 points per game in
2021 and 20.6 points per game last year will continue to slip without Fickell ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 2 500-1
8
and the NFL-caliber talent he recruited to Cincinnati. NATIONAL

OUTLOOK
STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

While the move up to the Big 12 obviously means a much more challenging
schedule, the Bearcats do miss Texas, Kansas State and TCU this season. A
case can be made for Cincinnati winning six games as it has Eastern Kentucky,
Miami (OH), Iowa State, Central Florida and Kansas on the home schedule. On 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
the road portion, Houston and West Virginia are two of the weakest teams in OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-4, ATS: 3-9, O/U: 6-7
the conference, and BYU is far from unbeatable. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 26.4 69 21.5 19 9/3 at Arkansas (6.5) 24-31 L L
Yards Per Point 13.6 41 15.9 25 9/10 KENNESAW ST (-29) 63-10 W W
However, the reality is the Bearcats are rebuilding, and Satterfield is walking
Plays Per Game 68.3 92 9/17 vs. Miami Ohio (-24) 38-17 W L
into an unenviable situation following Fickell and with only nine starters
Time of Possession 28:47 91 9/24 INDIANA (-16.5) 45-24 W W
returning. Satterfield was highly regarded when he left Appalachian State,
3rd Down Conv. % 35.1% 98 38.4% 60 10/1 at Tulsa (-10) 31-21 W T
though he was exposed to a degree at Louisville. He’s fortunate to draw a
Total Yards Per Game 360.2 86 342.3 27 10/8 SOUTH FLORIDA (-27) 28-24 W L
manageable schedule but is likely headed for a losing season. Under 5.5 is
the bet. Yards Per Play 5.3 78 4.5 7 10/22 at SMU (-3.5) 29-27 W L
Rush Attempts Per Game 32.7 98 10/29 at UCF (2) 21-25 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 121.7 95 154.2 66 11/5 NAVY (-18) 20-10 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.7 87 3.8 35 11/11 EAST CAROLINA (-4.5) 27-25 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.7 53 11/19 at Temple (-17) 23-3 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 58.2% 89 55.2% 12 11/25 TULANE (1) 24-27 L L

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 238.5 55 188.2 15 12/17 vs. Louisville (2.5) 7-24 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.3 64 6 8
Turnovers 1.1 26 1.5 51

88
 HOUSTON HEAD COACH: DANA HOLGORSEN (5TH)
COUGARS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DANA HOLGORSEN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DOUG BELK

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #64 OF 133

The Cougars and coach Dana Holgorsen have had a good two-year run, going
a combined 20-7 with bowl victories over Auburn and Louisiana. Holgorsen
will be playing to a different tune this season, however. Veteran quarterback
POWER RATING 43.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #14 OF 14

Clayton Tune must be replaced, and only 12 starters return for a Houston team
that is unlikely to return to a bowl game. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 TX-SAN ANTONIO -0.5 44.5
SCHEDULE 46.77
OFFENSE
Donovan Smith transferred to Houston after two years of riding a quarterback 9/9 at Rice -8.5 33
STRENGTH #25 TOUGHEST OF 133

FIELD 1.9 / 0.4

carousel at Texas Tech. The 6-5, 240-pound Smith was productive for the Red 9/16 TCU 8 53
Raiders. In fact, Smith completed 36-of-58 passes for 350 yards and two 9/23 SAM HOUSTON ST -22 23
touchdowns — and also rushed for 31 yards and a touchdown — in a 33-30 9/30 at Texas Tech 12.5 54
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

double-overtime victory over the Cougars in Lubbock last year.

10/12 WEST VIRGINIA -0.5 45
10/21 TEXAS 17 62.5
Smith steps in for Tune, who finished the season by passing for 4,074 yards
and 40 touchdowns while leading the team in rushing with 544 yards. Tune 10/28 at Kansas St 12.5 53
2023 ODDS
was a fifth-round pick by the Cardinals. Also lost to the NFL was leading 11/4 at Baylor 11.5 52
receiver Tank Dell, who had 109 catches and 17 touchdowns before getting 11/11 CINCINNATI -1.5 43.5 ODDS TO WIN
drafted in the third round by the Texans. West Virginia transfer Tony Mathis is 11/18 OKLAHOMA ST 2.5 47.5
200-1 BIG 12

the top running back, sophomore wideout Matthew Golden shows promise, and 11/25 at UCF 9 50
the starting line is made up of all seniors and juniors. The offense will decline
from 36 points per game, but it should be fine and will compete in the Big 12.
ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 500-1
12
DEFENSE NATIONAL
Junior end Nelson Ceaser is among seven returning starters for a defense that
allowed 32.2 points per game and could be a problem. The move from the AAC
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

means the Cougars will face better offenses this season, although Oklahoma is
not on the schedule, so that’s a plus.

OUTLOOK
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 5-8, O/U: 10-3
The Cougars opened last season with a 37-35 triple-overtime win at Texas-San STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Antonio, and their home opener is against UTSA. Rice and Sam Houston are Points Per Game 36.1 13 32.2 108 9/3 at Tx-San Antonio (-3.5) 37-35 W L
the other nonconference opponents. Houston has a manageable Big 12 home Yards Per Point 12.6 17 13.1 102 9/10 at Texas Tech (4) 30-33 L W
schedule against TCU, West Virginia, Texas, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State. Plays Per Game 71 59 9/17 KANSAS (-8.5) 30-48 L L
Holgorsen’s team might not win a league game on the road and faces Texas Time of Possession 29:43 69 9/24 RICE (-17.5) 34-27 W L
Tech, Kansas State, Baylor and UCF. The win total is correctly set at 4.5, so 3rd Down Conv. % 45.7% 20 43.0% 106 9/30 TULANE (-5.5) 24-27 L L
Total Yards Per Game 456.1 21 421.8 100 10/7 at Memphis (1.5) 33-32 W W
this is only a lean Over, with a 5-7 record appearing realistic. Don’t expect the
Yards Per Play 6.4 16 5.7 91 10/22 at Navy (-3) 38-20 W W
Cougars to go bowling again.
Rush Attempts Per Game 30.8 113 10/29 SOUTH FLORIDA (-17.5) 42-27 W L
Rush Yards Per Game 142.1 75 143.1 48 11/5 at SMU (3.5) 63-77 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.6 45 4.2 63 11/12 TEMPLE (-20) 43-36 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 38.5 18 11/19 at East Carolina (6) 42-3 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 67.4% 8 63.7% 104 11/26 TULSA (-13) 30-37 L L

OVER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 314 7 278.7 120 12/23 vs. La Lafayette (-6) 23-16 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.2 24 7.6 88
Turnovers 1.5 70 1.1 110

89
 IOWA STATE HEAD COACH: MATT CAMPBELL (8TH)
CYCLONES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: NATHAN SCHEELHAASE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JON HEACOCK

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #42 OF 133

Once a hot coaching commodity, Matt Campbell opted to stay at Iowa State
to continue building a successful program. Campbell might be regretting it.
The Cyclones went 9-3 in 2020, when they lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title
game and beat Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. Campbell’s record since is 11-14.
POWER RATING 48.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #8 OF 14

Iowa State does bring back 15 starters, but those starters return from a 4-8
team, and Campbell does not have an elite quarterback. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/2 N IOWA -14 37
SCHEDULE 48.85
The Cyclones were at their best when they had future NFL stars Brock Purdy
9/9 IOWA 0.5 51.5
STRENGTH #7 TOUGHEST OF 133
at quarterback and Breece Hall at running back. The offense dipped to 20.2
points per game last year, when Iowa State scored 14 points or fewer in seven
games. Hunter Dekkers’ development as a quarterback will define this unit, if
9/16 at Ohio U
9/23 OKLAHOMA ST
-10
-3.5
36.5
47.5
FIELD 2.8 / 0.1
the quarterback even sees the field. Dekkers looks like he could be hit with a
9/30 at Oklahoma 11.5 57.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
suspension for violating the NCAA’s gambling policy. That said, expect to see
a lot of Rocco Becht or JJ Kohl this season. The two freshmen were previously 10/7 TCU 2 53
battling for the backup job. 10/14 at Cincinnati -1.5 43.5
The return of the top two running backs — Jirehl Brock and Cartevious Norton 10/28 at Baylor 6.5 52
2023 ODDS
– is obviously a positive, although neither is a star. Leading receiver Xavier 11/4 KANSAS -5.5 46
Hutchinson, who had 107 catches for 1,171 yards and six touchdowns, will be ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at BYU 0 46
missed. The biggest positive is an experienced and physical line that ranks in
11/18 TEXAS 11 62.5
80-1 BIG 12
the top half of the Big 12. The offense will be improved, but that’s not saying a
lot after last year’s misery. 11/25 at Kansas St 7.5 53

DEFENSE
Will McDonald was the leader of the line, but he was the 15th overall pick in
ODDS TO WIN
the first round by the Jets, and only one starter returns on the defensive front. RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 300-1
15
NATIONAL

STARTERS
The top returning player is junior cornerback TJ Tampa, who made the all-Big CHAMPIONSHIP
12 second team. The defense kept the team in most games and allowed 20.3 DEFENSE: 6
points per game, even after surrendering 62 points in an embarrassing loss at
TCU to end the year.

OUTLOOK
The first quarter of the schedule — Northern Iowa, Iowa, at Ohio, Oklahoma
State — will be the Cyclones’ chance to make hay. That’s what happened last
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 4-7, O/U: 3-9
year, when Iowa State started 3-0, but then it lost five straight games and eight STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
of nine. The offense should be improved, though not significantly, and the Points Per Game 18.2 119 21.2 18 9/3 SE MISSOURI ST (-33.5) 42-10 W L
defense is a mystery. 19.8 125 13.3 94
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Iowa (4) 10-7 W W
Plays Per Game 75.5 22 9/17 OHIO U (-20) 43-10 W W
The Cyclones will likely be in most games yet lose many of them, especially
when they get into a Big 12 schedule that includes Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, Time of Possession 32:04 20 9/24 BAYLOR (-2.5) 24-31 L L
Kansas, Texas and Kansas State. It looks like 6-6 is the best-case scenario 3rd Down Conv. % 40.2% 46 28.9% 5 10/1 at Kansas (-3.5) 11-14 L L
for Campbell, and it’s always risky betting on a best-case scenario when the Total Yards Per Game 360.7 84 282.5 2 10/8 KANSAS ST (1) 9-10 L T
quarterback is mediocre, so this is a lean Under. Yards Per Play 4.8 107 4.6 8 10/15 at Texas (15.5) 21-24 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 32.5 101 10/29 OKLAHOMA (2) 13-27 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 101.8 117 108.2 15 11/5 WEST VIRGINIA (-6.5) 31-14 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.1 122 3.1 5 11/12 at Oklahoma St (-2.5) 14-20 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 40.7 10 11/19 TEXAS TECH (-3.5) 10-14 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.3% 30 60.4% 64 11/26 at TCU (9.5) 14-62 L L

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 258.9 39 174.3 8
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.4 105 6.8 35
Turnovers 1.9 113 1.2 94

90
 KANSAS HEAD COACH: LANCE LEIPOLD (3RD)
JAYHAWKS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ANDY KOTELNICKI
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRIAN BORLAND

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #48 OF 133

The record shows Kansas had a losing season at 6-7, but the reality is it was a
huge success. The Jayhawks went from 2-10 in coach Lance Leipold’s first year
to a bowl game for the first time since 2008. Leipold is a rising star, and he’s
POWER RATING 46 CONFERENCE RANK: #10 OF 14

got 17 starters returning, including 10 on offense. Despite a difficult schedule,

Kansas should reach back-to-back bowls. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/1 MISSOURI ST -17.5 30.5
SCHEDULE 47.90
Jalon Daniels’ dual-threat playmaking was the primary reason the Jayhawks
9/8 ILLINOIS 2.5 50
STRENGTH #15 TOUGHEST OF 133
started 5-0. He went down to injury in the next game, a 38-31 loss to TCU, and
FIELD 1.7 / -0.4
the team lost six of seven to finish the regular season. Backup quarterback 9/16 at Nevada -16.5 26.5
Jason Bean put up good numbers in Daniels’ absence, and Daniels and Bean 9/23 BYU -1.5 46
both return. 9/30 at Texas 20 62.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

10/7 UCF 2.5 50

The top three running backs also come back, including Devin Neal, who rushed
10/14 at Oklahoma St 5 47.5
for 1,090 yards and nine touchdowns. The top three receivers and four of
five linemen return for an offense that scored 35.6 points per game. Even in 10/28 OKLAHOMA 10 57.5
2023 ODDS
most of Kansas’ losses, the offense was potent. The Jayhawks fell 52-42 at 11/4 at Iowa St 5.5 48.5
Oklahoma and 55-53 to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl, a game Kansas covered 11/11 TEXAS TECH 6 54 ODDS TO WIN
as a 2.5-point underdog.
11/18 KANSAS ST 5.5 53
35-1 BIG 12

DEFENSE 11/25 at Cincinnati 1.5 43.5

The line lost all four starters and is being rebuilt with the help of transfers.
All three starting linebackers and the four starters in the secondary return.
It’s worth mentioning the Jayhawks’ top defensive player is junior corner ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 10 QB 300-1
17
Cobee Bryant. How a new-look line develops is important to Kansas’ ability to NATIONAL
pressure quarterbacks and stop the run, and the run defense was weak in the
second half of last season.
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

OUTLOOK
The Jayhawks have a great opportunity to open 4-0 with home games against
Missouri State, Illinois and BYU and a road game at Nevada. The September 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
30 trip to Texas calls for a brief history lesson. In 2021, Kansas stunned the OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 8-4, O/U: 9-4
Longhorns 57-56 as 31-point road dogs. Last year, the Longhorns got revenge STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 33.9 22 37.6 127 9/2 TENNESSEE TECH (-30) 56-10 W W
with a 55-14 win in Lawrence.
Yards Per Point 12.8 19 13.1 103 9/10 at West Virginia (14) 55-42 W W
Plays Per Game 64.8 119 9/17 at Houston (8.5) 48-30 W W
Kansas’ toughest remaining league games are at home versus Oklahoma,
Time of Possession 29:13 81 9/24 DUKE (-7) 35-27 W W
Texas Tech and Kansas State. Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Cincinnati are
3rd Down Conv. % 49.3% 9 50.0% 127 10/1 IOWA ST (3.5) 14-11 W W
beatable opponents away from home. If Daniels stays healthy, the Jayhawks
Total Yards Per Game 432.8 33 492.6 128 10/8 TCU (7) 31-38 L T
can win seven or eight, so go Over 6 with a push seemingly a worst-case
scenario. Leipold, a coach worth betting on, is still building in his third year. Yards Per Play 6.7 12 6.3 120 10/15 at Oklahoma (10.5) 42-52 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 34.5 82 10/22 at Baylor (10.5) 23-35 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 174.3 48 218.8 125 11/5 OKLAHOMA ST (-3) 37-16 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 26 5 116 11/12 at Texas Tech (4) 28-43 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 29.3 92 11/19 TEXAS (9) 14-55 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.2% 31 65.2% 117 11/26 at Kansas St (12) 27-47 L L

OVER 6
Passing Yards Per Game 258.5 40 273.8 117 12/28 vs. Arkansas (2.5) 53-55 L W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.8 8 8.2 113
Turnovers 1.3 48 1.8 20

91
 KANSAS STATE HEAD COACH: KRIS KLEIMAN (5TH)
WILDCATS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: COLLIN KLEIN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOE KLANDERMAN

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #24 OF 133

After Texas and Oklahoma, Kansas State should be the third-best team in the
league. It’s possible the Wildcats climb a little higher for fifth-year coach Chris
Klieman. K-State won the Big 12 title game by knocking off TCU before getting
POWER RATING 53 CONFERENCE RANK: #5 OF 14

outclassed by Alabama in a 45-20 Sugar Bowl loss. Klieman is a much better

coach than the Longhorns’ Steve Sarkisian and the Sooners’ Brent Venables, so 2023 SCHEDULE
that counts for something. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 SE MISSOURI ST -27 29
SCHEDULE 47.58
OFFENSE
9/9 TROY -11.5 44.5
STRENGTH #18 TOUGHEST OF 133
Deuce Vaughn was a dynamite running back who rolled up 1,558 yards
and nine touchdowns on the ground. He was a sixth-round draft pick by the
Cowboys and would have been drafted higher if not for being 5-5. Florida State
9/16 at Missouri
9/23 UCF
-1
-6
49.5
50
FIELD 3.2 / 0.2
transfer Treshaun Ward and sophomore DJ Giddens are good replacements for 10/6 at Oklahoma St -3 47.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Vaughn.
10/14 at Texas Tech 3.5 54
10/21 TCU -3 53
Adrian Martinez and Will Howard split time at quarterback, and only Howard
returns, but he was the better of the two passers. K-State scored 38.8 points per 10/28 HOUSTON -12.5 43.5
2023 ODDS
game in Howard’s five starts. The line ranks among the nation’s 10 best, with 11/4 at Texas 12 62.5
five starters returning and plenty of depth. Klieman wants his offenses to run
+500
11/11 BAYLOR -4 52 ODDS TO WIN
the ball and be physical, and the Wildcats have the personnel to do that. BIG 12
11/18 at Kansas -5.5 46
DEFENSE 11/25 IOWA ST -7.5 48.5
Six starters departed, the most significant being edge rusher Felix Anudike-
Uzomah, a first-round pick by the Chiefs. A lot of production was lost, but end
Khalid Duke and linebacker Austin Moore, the team’s top tackler, do return to ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 100-1
13
lead a defense that will be fine because Klieman brought in several transfers. NATIONAL

OUTLOOK
STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

September should be a winning month with Southeast Missouri, Troy and UCF
on the home schedule. A trip to Missouri in the third week will be a tough test.
The Wildcats will be favored in their last four home games (TCU, Houston,
Baylor, Iowa State) in Big 12 play, but they go to Texas and Texas Tech. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 10-4, ATS: 9-4, O/U: 7-7
The key to this win total is what’s missing from the schedule, and that’s three STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 32.2 28 23.5 38 9/3 S DAKOTA (-27) 34-0 W W
of the worst teams in the conference in BYU, Cincinnati and West Virginia.
Yards Per Point 13.1 25 16.3 24 9/10 MISSOURI (-7.5) 40-12 W W
Klieman is definitely a coach to believe in, Howard is a winner at quarterback,
Plays Per Game 70 67 9/17 TULANE (-14) 10-17 L L
and the offensive line is elite. However, it’s tough to count on 9-3 and go Over
Time of Possession 31:41 27 9/24 at Oklahoma (14) 41-34 W W
the total with Vaughn departing and the defense losing its top player, Anudike-
3rd Down Conv. % 39.2% 54 34.3% 23 10/1 TEXAS TECH (-7.5) 37-28 W W
Uzomah. It would not be a surprise if K-State returns to the league title game,
Total Yards Per Game 420.9 36 383.2 61 10/8 at Iowa St (-1) 10-9 W T
but with a tough road schedule, this call is a lean Under 8.5.
Yards Per Play 6 30 5.5 67 10/22 at TCU (3.5) 28-38 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 40.2 26 10/29 OKLAHOMA ST (-2.5) 48-0 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 201.5 17 152.3 63 11/5 TEXAS (3) 27-34 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 29 4.4 87 11/12 at Baylor (2.5) 31-3 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 28.5 97 11/19 at West Virginia (-8) 48-31 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.4% 59 58.7% 43 11/26 KANSAS (-12) 47-27 W W

UNDER 8.5
Passing Yards Per Game 219.4 80 230.9 67 12/3 vs. TCU (-1) 31-28 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.7 46 7 48 12/31 vs. Alabama (7.5) 20-45 L L
Turnovers 0.9 14 1.8 19

92
 OKLAHOMA HEAD COACH: BRENT VENABLES (2ND)
SOONERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JEFF LEBBY
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TODD BATES / TED ROOF / JAY VALAI

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #15 OF 133

In his first year as a head coach, Brent Venables was a bust. The Sooners
finished 6-7 for their first losing record since 1998. Venables, a longtime
defensive coordinator at Clemson and Oklahoma, appeared in over his head
POWER RATING 57.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #2 OF 14

as the leader of a program. But he also was the unlucky victim of several close
calls — five losses by seven points or fewer — and now catches a lucky break 2023 SCHEDULE
with a much weaker schedule in his second year. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 ARKANSAS ST -32.5 28
SCHEDULE 45.09
OFFENSE
9/9 SMU -15 45
STRENGTH #40 TOUGHEST OF 133
Injuries to quarterback Dillon Gabriel were a big factor in Oklahoma’s most
embarrassing defeats, 55-24 at TCU and 49-0 to Texas. The left-handed Gabriel
was accurate and effective when healthy, completing 62.7% of his passes for
9/16 at Tulsa -24.5 31.5
FIELD 2.6 / 0.4
25 touchdowns with six interceptions. He rates as the top returning passer in
9/23 at Cincinnati
9/30 IOWA ST
-11
-11.5
43.5
48.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

the conference.
10/7 vs. Texas 4.5 62.5

2023 ODDS
However, the Sooners will miss leading rusher Eric Gray and top wide receiver 10/21 UCF -10 50
Marvin Mims. While there is plenty of skill-position talent on the depth chart, 10/28 at Kansas -10 46
go-to players need to emerge. The line is experienced and should be among 11/4 at Oklahoma St -7.5 47.5
the league’s best, and 6-6, 315-pound left tackle Walter Rouse will help the
+340
11/11 WEST VIRGINIA -15.5 45 ODDS TO WIN
cause after transferring from Stanford. Based on what happened last year BIG 12
when Gabriel was out, keeping the star quarterback healthy is imperative. 11/18 at BYU -9.5 46
11/24 TCU -7 53
DEFENSE
Venables is regarded as a mad genius at designing defenses, but his reputation
took a hit as the Sooners were shredded too often in Big 12 play and allowed ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 60-1
13
29.6 points per game overall. Venables went to the transfer portal to beef up NATIONAL
the line and added seniors Jacob Lacey from Notre Dame and Rondell Bothroyd
from Wake Forest, among others. With more talent and time to instill his
STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

system, Venables will put a stronger defense on the field.

OUTLOOK
What’s missing from Oklahoma’s schedule — Big 12 contenders Kansas State 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
and Baylor — is important when analyzing the win total and projecting this OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 5-8, O/U: 6-6
team’s success. It would be a surprise if the Sooners are not 5-0 going into the STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 32.8 25 30 90 9/3 UTEP (-31) 45-13 W W
Texas game on October 7.
Yards Per Point 14.4 73 15.4 37 9/10 KENT ST (-33) 33-3 W L
Plays Per Game 78.4 6 9/17 at Nebraska (-11) 49-14 W W
The three road games in the season’s second half (Kansas, Oklahoma State
Time of Possession 26:11 127 9/24 KANSAS ST (-14) 34-41 L L
and BYU) are not layups before the home finale against TCU. In reality, a 9-3
3rd Down Conv. % 40.5% 42 40.4% 81 10/1 at TCU (-5) 24-55 L L
regular season would be a disappointment considering the schedule, but it’s
Total Yards Per Game 474 11 461 123 10/8 vs. Texas (7) 0-49 L L
fair to expect the Sooners to fall to Texas and Kansas and slip up in one more
spot somewhere along the way. Venables has a lot to prove as a head coach, Yards Per Play 6 27 5.6 76 10/15 KANSAS (-10.5) 52-42 W L
making this win total a lean Under. Rush Attempts Per Game 44.7 7 10/29 at Iowa St (-2) 27-13 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 219.4 10 187.5 104 11/5 BAYLOR (-3) 35-38 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.9 31 4.5 91 11/12 at West Virginia (-8.5) 20-23 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 31.3 71 11/19 OKLAHOMA ST (-7) 28-13 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.7% 53 61.9% 87 11/26 at Texas Tech (-1.5) 48-51 L L

UNDER 9.5
Passing Yards Per Game 254.6 44 273.5 116 12/29 vs. Florida St (10) 32-35 L W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.1 26 7.1 60
Turnovers 1.2 34 1.6 37

93
 OKLAHOMA STATE HEAD COACH: MIKE GUNDY (19TH)
COWBOYS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KASEY DUNN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JIM BOB CLEMENTS / BRYAN NARDO

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #44 OF 133

The rivalry with Oklahoma will come to an end after this season, and that’s a
good thing for coach Mike Gundy, who’s 3-15 against the Sooners. Gundy has
criticized Oklahoma for leaving for the SEC, but he should be happy about it.
POWER RATING 47.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #9 OF 14

Entering his 19th season in Stillwater, Gundy has made 17 consecutive bowl
games. He’s off a seven-win season and facing a relatively soft schedule, but 2023 SCHEDULE
this Cowboy might not have enough horses to go bowling this time. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 C ARKANSAS -27 23.5
SCHEDULE 44.51
OFFENSE
9/9 at Arizona St -3 42.5
STRENGTH #48 TOUGHEST OF 133
The departure of Spencer Sanders, the starting quarterback for the past two
FIELD 2.9 / 0.4
years, will prove costly. The Cowboys were 6-1 last season before Sanders 9/16 S ALABAMA -6.5 44
encountered injury issues and went to the sideline. He rarely got back on the 9/23 at Iowa St 3.5 48.5
field, and Oklahoma State lost five of its final six games. 10/6 KANSAS ST 3 53
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

10/14 KANSAS -5 46
Alan Bowman, a former starter at Texas Tech and little-used reserve at
10/21 at West Virginia 0 45
Michigan, is the favorite to win the job. His competition is Garret Rangel and
Gunner Gundy, and both backups failed to impress a year ago. If Bowman wins 10/28 CINCINNATI -6.5 43.5
2023 ODDS
the job, he can count on a veteran line and a good receiving corps, highlighted 11/4 OKLAHOMA 7.5 57.5
by Brennan Presley, who led the team with 67 receptions. The Cowboys failed 11/11 at UCF 5 50 ODDS TO WIN
to score more than 20 points in any of the final six games of 2022, including a
11/18 at Houston -2.5 43.5
40-1 BIG 12
48-0 loss at Kansas State. The offense could get ugly again.
11/25 BYU -4 46
DEFENSE
Gundy was a loser in the transfer portal. He brought in some talent but lost
star linebacker Mason Cobb to USC and cornerback Jabbar Muhammad to ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 300-1
13
Washington. A defense that allowed 28.9 points per game could get worse, NATIONAL
especially if the Oklahoma State offense is as weak as it appears on paper. STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

OUTLOOK
This win total is set correctly at 6.5 based on the schedule and Gundy’s track
record. The schedule excludes Texas, TCU and Baylor and includes all four Big
12 newcomers — BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 6-7
Two years ago, the Cowboys pulled off a big comeback to beat Notre Dame STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 27.9 60 30.8 97 9/1 C MICHIGAN (-20.5) 58-44 W L
37-35 in the Fiesta Bowl, but this is no longer a program competing for a
Yards Per Point 14.1 63 14.7 53 9/10 ARIZONA ST (-12) 34-17 W W
conference title because of a dropoff in quarterback play and the diminished
Plays Per Game 80 3 9/17 AK-PINE BLUFF (-54.5) 63-7 W W
talent level. It’s difficult to envision Gundy going 7-5 unless Oklahoma State
Time of Possession 28:13 106 10/1 at Baylor (2.5) 36-25 W W
manages to sweep tricky nonconference games against Arizona State and
3rd Down Conv. % 34.2% 104 27.2% 2 10/8 TEXAS TECH (-11) 41-31 W L
South Alabama, a pair of teams that could be surprisingly good. While it rarely
Total Yards Per Game 394.1 54 452.8 118 10/15 at TCU (5) 40-43 L W
pays to doubt Gundy, this is a time to do that and stay Under.
Yards Per Play 4.9 99 5.8 92 10/22 TEXAS (6.5) 41-34 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 37.4 57 10/29 at Kansas St (2.5) 0-48 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 122.1 94 186.1 103 11/5 at Kansas (3) 16-37 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.3 116 4.8 105 11/12 IOWA ST (2.5) 20-14 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 40.5 12 11/19 at Oklahoma (7) 13-28 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 54.9% 109 59.1% 48 11/26 WEST VIRGINIA (-5.5) 19-24 L L

UNDER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 272 26 266.8 106 12/27 vs. Wisconsin (5.5) 17-24 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.7 88 7 50
Turnovers 1.8 103 1.6 38

94
 TCU HEAD COACH: SONNY DYKES (2ND)
HORNED FROGS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KENDAL BRILES / A. J. RICKER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOE GILLESPIE

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #23 OF 133

Sonny Dykes will be his own tough act to follow. In his first season in Fort
Worth, Dykes coached the Horned Frogs to the national championship game.
Yes, that Monday night title game was a nightmare, a 65-7 loss to Georgia, but
POWER RATING 53 CONFERENCE RANK: #4 OF 14

TCU beat Michigan in a semifinal and finished 13-2 so it’s better to focus on the
positives. Max Duggan, the quarterback who ignited the Cinderella season, is 2023 SCHEDULE
gone, and that’s a negative. The Frogs look like a fringe Top 25 team. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 COLORADO -21 34.5
SCHEDULE 45.39
OFFENSE
9/9 NICHOLLS ST -48 7.5
STRENGTH #36 TOUGHEST OF 133
Chandler Morris, a third-year sophomore with three career starts, is likely to
FIELD 2.3 / 0.2
replace Duggan. The Frogs must replace much more than their quarterback. 9/16 at Houston -8 43.5
Leading rusher Kendre Miller and leading receiver Quentin Johnston also 9/23 SMU -10 45
departed. Only three starters return, but two of those are mammoth tackles 9/30 WEST VIRGINIA -10.5 45
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Andrew Coker (6-7, 315) and Brandon Coleman (6-6, 325).

10/7 at Iowa St -2 48.5
10/14 BYU -9 46
The running back position should be in good shape with Alabama transfer Trey
Sanders and returning junior Emani Bailey. Dykes has a sharp offensive mind 10/21 at Kansas St 3 53
2023 ODDS
and his new coordinator, Kendall Briles, was a smart hire from Arkansas. The 11/2 at Texas Tech 3.5 54
former OC, Garrett Riley, left for Clemson. TCU is rebuilding on this side of the 11/11 TEXAS 7 62.5 ODDS TO WIN
ball, but the offense will probably be better than most expect, considering the
11/18 BAYLOR -3 52
16-1 BIG 12
high-profile losses.
11/24 at Oklahoma 7 57.5
DEFENSE
Nose tackle Damonic Williams, middle linebacker Jamoi Hodge and cornerback
Josh Newton are among the Big 12’s best defenders and three of seven ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 3 100-1
10
returning starters. The defense should be better — and it was good last year, NATIONAL
when the Frogs held Texas to 10 points. The defense was nowhere near as bad
as it appeared in the disaster that was the Georgia game, so erase that from
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

memory and look at the big picture.

OUTLOOK
The ball bounced TCU’s way last year. The Frogs were fortunate to beat 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
Oklahoma State 43-40 and Baylor 29-28 on their way to 12-0. They will not OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 13-2, ATS: 10-4, O/U: 9-6
be catching opponents by surprise this year, and there probably will be some STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 37.4 9 29.9 89 9/2 at Colorado (-13.5) 38-13 W W
close-game regression. The schedule is soft early, likely allowing TCU to be 6-2
Yards Per Point 11.8 5 13.9 73 9/10 TARLETON ST (-40) 59-17 W W
or so going into its late October bye. The schedule gets tough late with road
Plays Per Game 69.9 71 9/24 at SMU (-2.5) 42-34 W W
games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma and home games versus Texas and Baylor.
Time of Possession 30:09 60 10/1 OKLAHOMA (5) 55-24 W W
The win total is set right at 7.5 because it’s most likely a seven- or eight-win
3rd Down Conv. % 38.6% 65 36.5% 46 10/8 at Kansas (-7) 38-31 W T
team, but lean Under. It’s a lot to ask to lose Duggan, Johnston and Miller and
Total Yards Per Game 442.5 28 415.9 93 10/15 OKLAHOMA ST (-5) 43-40 W L
still win eight games.
Yards Per Play 6.3 19 5.6 71 10/22 KANSAS ST (-3.5) 38-28 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 37.8 50 10/29 at West Virginia (-7) 41-31 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 194.2 25 163.7 78 11/5 TEXAS TECH (-8.5) 34-24 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 17 4.3 83 11/12 at Texas (7.5) 17-10 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 30 85 11/19 at Baylor (-2) 29-28 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 62.9% 41 55.9% 16 11/26 IOWA ST (-9.5) 62-14 W W

UNDER 7.5
Passing Yards Per Game 248.3 47 252.1 97 12/3 vs. Kansas St (1) 28-31 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.3 18 7.2 66 12/31 vs. Michigan (8) 51-45 W W
Turnovers 1.1 21 1.4 65 1/9 vs. Georgia (13.5) 7-65 L L

95
 TEXAS HEAD COACH: STEVE SARKISIAN (3RD)
LONGHORNS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KYLE FLOOD
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JEFF CHOATE / PETE KWIATKOWSKI

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #5 OF 133

The first two years of the Steve Sarkisian era at Texas were forgettable. In
2021, Sarkisian went 5-7, including a loss to Kansas as a 31-point favorite. Last
year was an improvement as the Longhorns finished 8-5, yet lost in the Alamo
Bowl. This year, Texas hopes to win the Big 12 title for the first time since 2009.
POWER RATING 62.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #1 OF 14

In 2024, the Longhorns will move to the SEC, and Sarkisian’s most hyped
recruit, quarterback Arch Manning, will get his shot to shine. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
SCHEDULE 49.02
9/2 RICE -32.5 33
The Manning era in Austin will have to wait. Third-year sophomore Quinn
9/9 at Alabama 8 67.5
STRENGTH #6 TOUGHEST OF 133
Ewers, who started his career on the sidelines at Ohio State, will try to play his
way into the first round of the NFL Draft. Ewers started 10 games last season
and put up pedestrian numbers (58% completions, 15 touchdown passes) while
9/16 WYOMING -27.5 38
FIELD 2.9 / -0.1
missing time with injuries. But Ewers showed promise, especially in an early-
9/23 at Baylor -7 52
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
season 20-19 loss to Alabama. His backup, Hudson Card, transferred to Purdue 9/30 KANSAS -20 46
to leave the No. 2 spot to Manning. 10/7 vs. Oklahoma -4.5 57.5

While the offense returns 10 starters, the one who was lost — running back
Bijan Robinson — was a top-10 draft pick by the Falcons. Robinson rushed for
10/21 at Houston
10/28 BYU
-17
-19
43.5
46
2023 ODDS
1,580 yards and 18 TDs. The depth chart in the backfield is loaded and led 11/4 KANSAS ST -12 53
by freshman CJ Baxter. The receiver group is impressive, with Xavier Worthy
+105
11/11 at TCU -7 53 ODDS TO WIN
returning and Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell as a key addition. The line BIG 12
returns a combined 101 combined career starts and ranks among the nation’s 11/18 at Iowa St -11 48.5
best. Sarkisian has all the pieces and this offense should top last season’s 34.5 11/24 TEXAS TECH -12 54
points per game.

DEFENSE
ODDS TO WIN
With six starters back, Texas is in a decent spot. But the key to the defense RETURNING OFFENSE: 10 QB 22-1
16
NATIONAL

STARTERS
avoiding a decline will be the development of several top recruits and CHAMPIONSHIP
transfers, including corner Ryan Watts from Ohio State. The Longhorns allowed DEFENSE: 6
only 21.6 points per game a year ago and whipped Oklahoma 49-0 in the
highlight of the Sarkisian era.

OUTLOOK
The Longhorns are the conference favorites, but preseason hype has amounted
to hot air for this program for too long. Texas has stayed Under its posted
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 6-7
win total 10 of the past 11 years, which is tough to do. Road games against STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Alabama and Baylor in September will tell a lot prior to the October 7 rivalry Points Per Game 34.5 20 21.6 21 9/3 LA MONROE (-37.5) 52-10 W W
game with Oklahoma. Sarkisian does draw a favorable league schedule by 12.5 12 17 15
Yards Per Point 9/10 ALABAMA (21) 19-20 L W
getting Kansas State and Texas Tech at home. On paper, Sark’s third team has
Plays Per Game 68.8 85 9/17 TX-SAN ANTONIO (-13.5) 41-20 W W
enough talent to go Over 9.5 wins and contend for a playoff spot, but Texas’
track record of underachieving calls for a lean Under. Time of Possession 27:18 120 9/24 at Texas Tech (-7) 34-37 L L
3rd Down Conv. % 38.8% 63 41.3% 88 10/1 WEST VIRGINIA (-7.5) 38-20 W W
Total Yards Per Game 429.5 35 368.4 44 10/8 vs. Oklahoma (-7) 49-0 W W
Yards Per Play 6.2 23 4.8 18 10/15 IOWA ST (-15.5) 24-21 W L
Rush Attempts Per Game 36.2 66 10/22 at Oklahoma St (-6.5) 34-41 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 188.2 34 125.7 30 11/5 at Kansas St (-3) 34-27 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.2 16 3.5 19 11/12 TCU (-7.5) 10-17 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 31.2 73 11/19 at Kansas (-9) 55-14 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.2% 62 63.0% 97 11/25 BAYLOR (-10) 38-27 W W

UNDER 9.5
Passing Yards Per Game 241.4 50 242.7 86 12/29 vs. Washington (-3) 20-27 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.7 43 6.3 14
Turnovers 0.9 14 1.1 110

96
 TEXAS TECH HEAD COACH: JOEY MCGUIRE (2ND)
RED RAIDERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ZACH KITTLEY
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TIM DERUYTER

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #20 OF 133

If experience matters, and it should, watch out for Texas Tech as a sleeper in
the Big 12 title race. The Red Raiders return 11 starters on offense and are
led by a coach, Joey McGuire, who upset Texas and Oklahoma in his eight-win
POWER RATING 54 CONFERENCE RANK: #3 OF 14

debut season in Lubbock. A lot could be on the line on November 24, when the
Raiders ride into Austin to face the Longhorns. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 at Wyoming -12.5 38
SCHEDULE 47.50
OFFENSE
McGuire and his offensive coordinator, Zach Kittley, will call the shots for an 9/9 OREGON 3.5 59.5
STRENGTH #20 TOUGHEST OF 133

FIELD 2.5 / -0.5

offense primed to put up big numbers. Senior quarterback Tyler Shough, who 9/16 TARLETON ST -41 15.5
began his career at Oregon, is expected to start and can lean on Tahj Brooks,
last year’s leading rusher. Shough was one of three quarterbacks who passed
9/23 at West Virginia -5.5 45
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
9/30 HOUSTON -12.5 43.5
for more than 1,000 yards last year as McGuire rotated starters. There is plenty
10/7 at Baylor 1.5 52
of talent on the depth chart at quarterback, running back and wide receiver,
2023 ODDS
10/14 KANSAS ST -3.5 53
plus three seniors anchor the line, which features a combined 142 career
starts. This offense will be one of the Big 12’s best. 10/21 at BYU -5 46
11/2 TCU -3.5 53
DEFENSE 11/11 at Kansas -6 46 ODDS TO WIN
Five of the most productive defensive players departed, so any concerns about 11/18 UCF -6.5 50
12-1 BIG 12

the team involve this unit. Tim DeRuyter returns as coordinator, and DeRuyter 11/24 at Texas 12 62.5
is a former head coach at Fresno State and DC at Oregon. Ironically, a home
game against the Ducks on September 9 might be the biggest test DeRuyter’s
defense faces all season. ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 11 QB 200-1
17
NATIONAL
OUTLOOK
The Red Raiders open the season as two-touchdown favorites at Wyoming,
STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

which has one of the strongest defenses in the Mountain West. The trip to
Laramie will be tricky and is followed by a home game with Oregon. There
is no easing into the schedule. Texas Tech avoids Oklahoma and gets Kansas
State and TCU to visit Lubbock, but five road games in the Big 12 (West
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 8-5
Virginia, Baylor, BYU, Kansas, Texas) will make topping the win total of 7.5 a STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
tall hill to climb. Points Per Game 31.8 32 30.8 97 9/3 MURRAY ST (-38) 63-10 W W
Yards Per Point 14.1 62 14.3 65 9/10 HOUSTON (-4) 33-30 W L
That said, Tech is strong on the offensive and defensive lines and has an Plays Per Game 89.2 1 9/17 at Nc State (10.5) 14-27 L L
offense that will be tough to contain. McGuire has the look of a rising star as a Time of Possession 30:14 56 9/24 TEXAS (7) 37-34 W W
coach and gets the benefit of the doubt, so this is a lean Over. The Red Raiders 3rd Down Conv. % 35.3% 95 40.2% 78 10/1 at Kansas St (7.5) 28-37 L L
Total Yards Per Game 449.1 26 439.6 109 10/8 at Oklahoma St (11) 31-41 L W
are a sleeper pick and a potential surprise team in the league. The schedule
Yards Per Play 5 93 5.8 102 10/22 WEST VIRGINIA (-5) 48-10 W W
just makes it difficult to be overly optimistic.
Rush Attempts Per Game 41.3 18 10/29 BAYLOR (-1.5) 17-45 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 161.2 58 178.8 97 11/5 at TCU (8.5) 24-34 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.9 80 4.5 95 11/12 KANSAS (-4) 43-28 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 44.5 5 11/19 at Iowa St (3.5) 14-10 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 60.3% 69 60.2% 60 11/26 OKLAHOMA (1.5) 51-48 W W

OVER 7.5
Passing Yards Per Game 287.9 16 260.8 102 12/28 vs. Ole Miss (3.5) 42-25 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.5 102 7.8 100
Turnovers 2 119 1.6 38

97
 UCF HEAD COACH: GUS MALZAHN (3RD)
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DARIN HINSHAW
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DAVID GIBBS / ADDISON WILLIAMS

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #36 OF 133

Gus Malzahn was chased out after eight years at Auburn, where he did a good
job yet found it impossible to survive in Nick Saban’s shadow at Alabama. In
two years as UCF coach, Malzahn has a record of 18-9 with a pair of nine-win
POWER RATING 50 CONFERENCE RANK: #7 OF 14

finishes. He has 15 starters returning, including a quarterback with SEC

experience, so moving to the Big 12 will not be intimidating to Malzahn. But 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
the Knights do draw a much tougher schedule.
8/31 KENT ST -32.5 20.5
SCHEDULE 44.03
OFFENSE 9/9 at Boise St -1 46
STRENGTH #56 TOUGHEST OF 133

FIELD 2.8 / 0.1

John Rhys Plumlee, who started occasionally in three years at Mississippi, 9/16 VILLANOVA -32.5 20
passed for 14 touchdowns in his first year as a starter in the AAC. Plumlee, 9/23 at Kansas St 6 53
who missed some time while injured, also was effective as a runner with 862 9/30 BAYLOR -0.5 52
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

yards and 11 touchdowns. The Knights also bring back 5-foot-8 running back RJ
10/7 at Kansas -2.5 46
Harvey, who had 796 yards and five touchdowns, and top receiver Javon Baker.
10/21 at Oklahoma 10 57.5
The depth and size of the offensive line are up to the Big 12’s high standards.
Malzahn always produces high-scoring offenses and will do so again. 10/28 WEST VIRGINIA -8 45
2023 ODDS
11/4 at Cincinnati -3 43.5
DEFENSE 11/11 OKLAHOMA ST -5 47.5 ODDS TO WIN
Georgia transfer linebacker Rian Davis has been added to a unit with seven 11/18 at Texas Tech 6.5 54
35-1 BIG 12

returning starters. A veteran line led by Ricky Barber and Tre’Mon Morris-Brash 11/25 HOUSTON -9 43.5
will be a strength. The defense allowed 23.6 points per game last year, but it
will face better offenses on this schedule.
ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 300-1
15
OUTLOOK NATIONAL
The bad news for the Knights is they play Boise State, Kansas State, Kansas,
Oklahoma and Texas Tech on the road. UCF also visits Cincinnati, but the
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

Knights are the best team of the four newcomers to the conference. The good
news for UCF is it hosts Kent State, Villanova, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma
State and Houston and should win four or five of its six home games.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-5, ATS: 7-7, O/U: 6-8
More good news: Texas and TCU are not on the schedule. There appears to STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
be no obvious edge in betting this win total, which is set at 6.5, so the lean is Points Per Game 31.1 37 24.7 45 9/1 S CAROLINA ST (-43.5) 56-10 W W
Under due to that side being priced +145 at DraftKings. With a rigorous road Yards Per Point 14.8 78 16.3 23 9/9 LOUISVILLE (-5.5) 14-20 L L
schedule, the Knights’ ceiling is probably 7-5, and their most likely result is Plays Per Game 78.3 7 9/17 at Fla Atlantic (-7.5) 40-14 W W
6-6. Malzahn is usually a bet-on coach, but his team is taking a big step up in Time of Possession 30:43 48 9/24 GEORGIA TECH (-21) 27-10 W L
class to a power conference, so it’s tough to be too optimistic. 3rd Down Conv. % 45.4% 24 40.5% 82 10/5 SMU (-3) 41-19 W W
Total Yards Per Game 459.2 18 402.8 82 10/13 TEMPLE (-23.5) 70-13 W W
Yards Per Play 5.9 40 5.8 97 10/22 at East Carolina (-6) 13-34 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 43.5 11 10/29 CINCINNATI (-2) 25-21 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 223.1 9 167.7 84 11/5 at Memphis (-3) 35-28 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 18 4.8 106 11/12 at Tulane (1) 38-31 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.2 60 11/19 NAVY (-15.5) 14-17 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.7% 25 60.7% 69 11/26 at South Florida (-19.5) 46-39 W L

UNDER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 236.1 57 235.1 78 12/3 at Tulane (3.5) 28-45 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.3 62 7.1 58 12/28 vs. Duke (3) 13-30 L L
Turnovers 1.5 70 1.2 90

98
 WEST VIRGINIA HEAD COACH: NEAL BROWN (5TH)
MOUNTAINEERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CHAD SCOTT
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SHADON BROWN / JORDAN LESLEY

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #58 OF 133

Neal Brown enters his fifth season in Morgantown on the coaching hot seat.
He’s got a losing record (22-25), opens the season at Penn State, and is seeing
predictions that put his Mountaineers near the bottom of a 14-team conference.
POWER RATING 45 CONFERENCE RANK: #12 OF 14

The one break he catches this year is a schedule that excludes Big 12 favorite
Texas. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 at Penn St 19.5 61.5
SCHEDULE 46.83
OFFENSE
Garrett Greene is the wild card for the Mountaineers. The dual-threat 9/9 DUQUESNE -42 6
STRENGTH #24 TOUGHEST OF 133

FIELD 3 / -0.3
quarterback triggered a comeback victory over Oklahoma and should be an 9/16 PITTSBURGH 0 47.5
upgrade from last year’s starter, JT Daniels. Greene’s running ability is what’s 9/23 TEXAS TECH 5.5 54
most exciting about the potential of this offense. 9/30 at TCU 10.5 53
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

10/12 at Houston 0.5 43.5

CJ Donaldson, who rushed for 526 yards and 6.0 per carry last season, is the
10/21 OKLAHOMA ST 0 47.5
top returning running back for an offense that loses the top three receivers
and will attempt to control games on the ground. Running the ball will be 10/28 at UCF 8 50
2023 ODDS
easier, with five veterans starting along one of the league’s strongest lines. As 11/4 BYU -2 46
respected college football handicapper Phil Steele noted, West Virginia is 18-4 11/11 at Oklahoma 15.5 57.5 ODDS TO WIN
under Brown when rushing for 100-plus yards, and the Mountaineers might be 11/18 CINCINNATI -4 43.5
150-1 BIG 12

doing that regularly this season. 11/25 at Baylor 10.5 52

DEFENSE
Junior end Sean Martin will lead a defense returning seven starters, yet there ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 500-1
13
is much improvement to make after allowing 32.9 points per game. West NATIONAL
Virginia’s ability to run the ball offensively should lead to complementary
football and allow the defense more time off the field. Brown is not a bad
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

coach, but he has struggled to find a consistent quarterback, and his defenses
have suffered. He needs all of that change in a hurry.

OUTLOOK
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 6-6
The September schedule lines up Penn State, Duquesne, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
and TCU, and with only one obvious soft spot, it will make it difficult for the Points Per Game 27.5 63 35.3 119 9/1 at Pittsburgh (7.5) 31-38 L W
Mountaineers to emerge better than 2-3. West Virginia does play all four Big Yards Per Point 13.8 47 12.3 117 9/10 KANSAS (-14) 42-55 L L
12 newcomers — Houston, Central Florida, BYU and Cincinnati — and those are Plays Per Game 73.1 39 9/17 TOWSON (-41) 65-7 W W
all winnable games. Greene, Donaldson, and a dangerous running attack will Time of Possession 30:53 42 9/22 at Virginia Tech (-2) 33-10 W W
be the key to the season. West Virginia could win four of its six home games or 3rd Down Conv. % 39.5% 52 42.6% 100 10/1 at Texas (7.5) 20-38 L L
Total Yards Per Game 378.5 67 433.5 107 10/13 BAYLOR (3) 43-40 W W
fall apart, meaning this is a tough team to predict. A six-win season and a bowl
Yards Per Play 5.2 83 6.1 112 10/22 at Texas Tech (5) 10-48 L L
are realistic goals. Another 5-7 finish is the call and the lean Over, but that
Rush Attempts Per Game 36.4 64 10/29 TCU (7) 31-41 L L
might also get Brown fired.
Rush Yards Per Game 158.4 60 155.8 69 11/5 at Iowa St (6.5) 14-31 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.4 57 4.3 75 11/12 OKLAHOMA (8.5) 23-20 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 35 37 11/19 KANSAS ST (8) 31-48 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 59.0% 81 60.3% 62 11/26 at Oklahoma St (5.5) 24-19 W W

OVER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 220.2 77 277.6 118
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.3 111 8.4 120
Turnovers 1.6 93 0.8 127

99
conference usa
betting preview
College football realignment has impacted each Group of Five conference differently, but the changes to Conference USA are really significant for the 2023
season. UTSA, UAB, Charlotte, North Texas, Florida Atlantic, and Rice all moved to the AAC, paving the way for former Independents Liberty and New Mexico
State to join C-USA, along with FBS newcomers Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State.

The conference goes from 11 teams to nine (no divisions) and has been substantially weakened by the departures. It was never that strong of a conference
anyway, but teams like UTSA, UAB, and FAU have at least made noise in the Top 25 at times. If I were to rank the conferences 1 through 10, Conference USA
would now be the worst, even with some of the awful teams in the MAC.

Western Kentucky is the only holdover to have a winning record in conference play last season and one of two to reach bowl eligibility. The only other team
in the conference to go bowling is New Mexico State, who joins a conference for the first time since leaving the Sun Belt in 2017.

Futures intrigue is pretty limited here, as Western Kentucky (+130) looks quite a bit better than anybody else, though Liberty (+240) and Middle Tennessee
(+450) are also considered contenders. Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State are not eligible for the conference title game until the 2024 season, so
only seven of the nine teams have a chance to win the conference crown.

On the plus side, one cool wrinkle is that this will be the only conference in which teams will play every single conference opponent. That will change next
season when Kennesaw State joins the league.

Another cool wrinkle is that the conference will play games on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays in September and October, so it would benefit you to
be familiar with the teams to wager on those mid-week matchups.

2023 PROJECTED STANDINGS (BASED ON STEVE MAKINEN RATINGS)

2023 Schedule Strength All Games Conference Games DraftKings
Team SM PR (Rank) PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's O/U
WESTERN KENTUCKY 40.5 30.74 (126) 8.5 3.5 6.3 1.7 8.5
LIBERTY 36.5 27.24 (133) 8.7 3.3 5.6 2.4 8.5
JACKSONVILLE ST 32.5 31.58 (123) 6.4 5.6 4.6 3.4 5
MIDDLE TENN ST 32.5 32.46 (119) 6.3 5.7 4.6 3.4 6.5
LOUISIANA TECH 30 31.26 (125) 5.5 6.5 3.9 4.1 5.5
UTEP 30 33.21 (111) 5.0 7.0 3.9 4.1 5.5
NEW MEXICO ST 26 28.78 (132) 5.7 7.3 2.9 5.1 5.5
SAM HOUSTON ST 23 32.99 (113) 3.3 8.7 2.4 5.6 4
FLA INTERNATIONAL 21.5 32.78 (116) 2.9 9.1 1.8 6.2 3

100
 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL HEAD COACH: MIKE MACINTYRE (2ND)
GOLDEN PANTHERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DAVID YOST
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOVAN DEWITT

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #130 OF 133

Florida International was 4-4 last season after eight games, and I was saying
on the VSiN College Football Podcast that Mike MacIntyre should get serious
consideration as the Coach of the Year. The program was in total disarray
when he took over, as previous head coach Butch Davis shed some light on
POWER RATING 21.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #9 OF 9

the lackluster facilities, hand-me-down uniforms, and the lack of raises for his
assistants. MacIntyre came in, and all of a sudden, had a team looking bowl 2023 SCHEDULE
eligibility in the face. Well, FIU lost the final four games by a combined 122 DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
points, and the season ended with a whimper.
8/26 at Louisiana Tech 12 30
SCHEDULE 32.78
OFFENSE 9/2 MAINE -9 14.5
STRENGTH #116 TOUGHEST OF 133
Even though things were really bad in 2021 with a 1-11 record, the offense was
a lot better. FIU managed just 18.7 points per game and a measly 4.7 yards
per play. While the Panthers cut 23 sacks off of their total from the previous
9/9 NORTH TEXAS 13 36.5
FIELD 1.9 / -0.5
season, they threw for less yardage, made very small gains on the ground, and
9/16 at Connecticut
9/23 LIBERTY
13.5
13.5
32
36.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
posted a 16/16 TD/INT ratio. Grayson James had 11 of the 16 TD passes but
also 11 of the interceptions while throwing for under 2,000 yards in 10 starts. 10/4 at New Mexico St 7 26
Perhaps Year 2 under respected offensive coordinator David Yost will go better,
10/11 UTEP 6 30
but his favorite target, Tyrese Chambers, is gone.
10/18 at Sam Houston St 5 23
2023 ODDS
The low sack total was one of the few bright spots for the Panthers last season,
but they’ll have to work in three new starters on the offensive line and are thin 10/25 JACKSONVILLE ST 9.5 32.5
with upperclassmen, so experience is an issue. James is fairly mobile, which 11/11 at Middle Tenn St 14.5 32.5 ODDS TO WIN
helped the sack numbers last season, but it might make sense for Yost recruit
11/18 at Arkansas 33 52
60-1 CONFERENCE USA
Keyone Jenkins to play in his freshman season.
11/25 W KENTUCKY 17.5 40.5
DEFENSE
The FIU defense was one of the worst in the nation in 2021, and that side of
the ball did improve under MacIntyre, at least until the complete lack of depth
caught up with them late in the season. The Panthers only shaved 2.4 points ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 QB 10000-1
12
per game off their ledger but did shave 0.7 yards per play off and had seven NATIONAL
more sacks. This side of the ball does return seven starters and seven of the top
nine tacklers. STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

At least MacIntyre had the full 85 scholarships to work with this season, which
was not the case previously, so there’s some hope that this side of the ball can
continue its upward trajectory, especially with a lot of underclassmen playing
big roles last season. MacIntyre knows defense, and it could really show 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
through this season. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 6-6
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 16.9 120 37.3 125 9/1 BRYANT (-10.5) 38-37 W L
UTSA, North Texas, and FAU all rolled over FIU last season, and they’ve gone
Yards Per Point 18.9 122 12.1 122 9/10 at Texas St Univ (14) 12-41 L L
to the AAC, but Western Kentucky and UTEP are still around. So, there’s some
give and take in the schedule. FIU plays in Week 0 against Louisiana Tech, Plays Per Game 69.4 78 9/24 at W Kentucky (31) 0-73 L L
which means two byes during the regular season and some opportunities for Time of Possession 27:46 114 10/1 at New Mexico St (15.5) 21-7 W W
a young, depth-shy roster to catch its breath. I only have FIU favored in one 3rd Down Conv. % 29.1% 124 48.5% 126 10/8 CONNECTICUT (6) 12-33 L L
game, and it’s against FCS Maine. Their win total line is three with heavy Over Total Yards Per Game 318.9 111 450.3 117 10/14 TX-SAN ANTONIO (33) 10-30 L W
juice, and they got to four last season with a stronger schedule, but I don’t see
much upside on this roster with a projection of 2.28 wins. Yards Per Play 4.6 114 5.9 107 10/22 at Charlotte (14) 34-15 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 30 118 10/28 LOUISIANA TECH (6.5) 42-34 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 108.5 113 198.2 112 11/5 at North Texas (21.5) 14-52 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.6 92 4.8 102 11/12 FLA ATLANTIC (14.5) 7-52 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 37.8 22 11/19 at UTEP (14) 6-40 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 57.9% 91 64.7% 112 11/26 MIDDLE TENN ST (19.5) 28-33 L W

UNDER 3
Passing Yards Per Game 210.5 88 252.1 96
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.6 123 7.6 93
Turnovers 1.8 106 1.3 83

101
 JACKSONVILLE STATE HEAD COACH: RICH RODRIGUEZ (2ND)
GAMECOCKS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ROD SMITH
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ZAC ALLEY

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #105 OF 133

The state of Alabama has its sixth FBS team with Jacksonville State making the
move this season. The Gamecocks, led by head coach Rich Rodriguez, went 9-2
last season with a 54-17 loss to Tulsa as a 10-point underdog. It was Rich Rod’s
first year in Jacksonville, so there’s a chance that the Gamecocks are successful
POWER RATING 32.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #4 OF 9

in their opening season, though they are ineligible to play for the Conference
USA championship. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
8/26 UTEP -5 30
SCHEDULE 31.58
Quarterback Zion Webb appealed to the NCAA for another season of eligibility
and won, so Jacksonville State heads to FBS with most of the offense intact. 9/2 E TENN ST -16 18.5
STRENGTH #123 TOUGHEST OF 133
Webb was effective at times as a passer with 1,737 yards and a 10/9 TD/INT
ratio, but he was a successful runner with 13 rushing scores and 5.6 yards per
carry. The Gamecocks rely quite heavily on the run, as feature back Anwar
9/9 at Coastal Carolina 7 37.5
FIELD 2.2 / 0.2
Lewis had 7.1 yards per pop on 115 tries. Louisiana-Monroe transfer Malik
9/23 E MICHIGAN -2.5 32
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Jackson will also mix in, as JSU ran 493 times compared to 227 pass attempts 9/28 at Sam Houston St -7 23
last season. 10/4 at Middle Tenn St 2.5 32.5

2023 ODDS
On the whole, the Gamecocks averaged 5.6 yards per carry in Rodriguez’s first 10/10 LIBERTY 2 36.5
season and the first season for offensive coordinator Rod Smith. Between Sam 10/17 W KENTUCKY 6 40.5
Houston State and Jacksonville State, the Gamecocks appear better equipped
for the step up in class, as they return more production off of a more successful 10/25 at Fla International -9.5 21.5
season. However, it’s still a step up in talent, size, and depth, so Jacksonville 11/4 at South Carolina 20 50.5 ODDS TO WIN
State has to stay healthy.
11/18 LOUISIANA TECH -5 30
NA CONFERENCE USA

DEFENSE 11/25 at New Mexico St -4.5 26

Despite a heavy influence on the run, Jacksonville State still had to defend
more plays (814) than they ran (720), but the defense more than held its own.
The Gamecocks allowed just 5.4 yards per play, 4.1 yards per carry, and held
opponents to just 22.9 points per game. A lot of starters are back on this side ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 990-1
16
of the ball as well, including most of the team’s 27 sacks. NATIONAL

The Gamecocks also worked in a lot of guys to stay fresh, as nobody had more STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

than 72 tackles and 14 guys had at least 20 tackles. Defensive coordinator Zac
Alley is in his second season and is only 30 years old. He was a grad assistant
under Dabo Swinney and Brent Venables at Clemson and also worked at Boise
State and was the youngest DC in college football at 28 with Louisiana-Monroe.
He’s a smart guy and this group can grow together. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-2, ATS: 7-4, O/U: 5-6
OUTLOOK STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Jacksonville State has the fifth-smallest enrollment of any non-service Points Per Game First Year as FBS School 8/27 vs. Steph F Austin (7.5) 42-17 W W
academy, so this is a small school, but the home stadium seats 24,000 and
Yards Per Point 9/3 DAVIDSON (-26.5) 35-17 W L
there should be a lot of excitement for the first year in FBS. The Gamecocks
have a very experienced team and run the ball well in a conference where Plays Per Game 9/10 at Murray St (-14.5) 34-3 W W
stopping the run is hit or miss. With a game in Week 0 against UTEP, the Time of Possession 9/17 at Tulsa (12.5) 17-54 L L
Gamecocks will begin Conference USA play right away and also have two bye 3rd Down Conv. % 9/24 at Nicholls St (-10) 52-21 W W
weeks. The win total is 5 and my numbers call for 4.66 wins, but I only have Total Yards Per Game 10/1 KENNESAW ST (-11) 35-28 W L
them favored in three games. That said, they have a higher ceiling with their
experience and a good head coach. Yards Per Play 10/15 vs. N Alabama (-15) 47-31 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 10/22 SE LOUISIANA (-7.5) 14-31 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 10/29 at Austin Peay (3.5) 40-16 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 11/12 E KENTUCKY (-4) 42-17 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 11/19 at C Arkansas (-1.5) 40-17 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion %

OVER 5
Passing Yards Per Game
Yards Per Pass Attempt
Turnovers

102
 LIBERTY HEAD COACH: JAMEY CHADWELL (1ST)
FLAMES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: NEWLAND ISAAC / WILLY KORN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JACK CURTIS / SKYLOR MAGEE

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #88 OF 133

The wild card of Conference USA is Liberty. The Flames have a new head
coach in Jamey Chadwell, who took Coastal Carolina to new heights in his five
seasons with the Chanticleers. Hugh Freeze was very successful in Lynchburg,
Virginia with a 34-16 record, plus some Top 25 appearances. The Flames are a
POWER RATING 36.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #2 OF 9

conference member for the first time since joining FBS in 2018 and ease into it
with the members of C-USA, but they also beat Arkansas and took Wake Forest 2023 SCHEDULE
to the wire last season. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 BOWLING GREEN -12 28
SCHEDULE 27.24
OFFENSE
The Chadwell hire should be a good one, but Year 1 could be rough. His 9/9 NEW MEXICO ST -14 26
STRENGTH #133 TOUGHEST OF 133
complex offense is full of pre-snap motion in hopes of creating mismatches and
outnumbered situations for defenders. It took Coastal Carolina a quarterback
like Grayson McCall and basically three seasons of the offense to get it figured
9/16 at Buffalo -2 31.5
FIELD 3.3 / 0.3
out. He was the one-year interim for a 3-9 season in 2017 and then served as
9/23 at Fla International -13.5 21.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
the offensive coordinator in 2018 with a 5-7 showing and just 26.7 points per 10/5 SAM HOUSTON ST -16.5 23
game. As head coach, the Chants were 5-7 in 2019 but did score over 30 points 10/10 at Jacksonville St -2 32.5
per game. After that, the team went 31-7 over three years.
2023 ODDS
10/17 MIDDLE TENN ST -7.5 32.5
It remains to be seen how close Kaidon Salter is on the McCall scale, but this is 10/24 at W Kentucky 6.5 40.5
not an easy offense to master. Salter and Johnathan Bennett shared time as
the starter last season while also sharing time in the training room. Returning 11/4 LOUISIANA TECH -10 30

+240
starters are few and far between on both sides of the ball for Liberty, but Dae 11/11 OLD DOMINION -12.5 27.5 ODDS TO WIN
Dae Hunter’s 6.6 yards per carry and Demario Douglas’s 79 catches will be CONFERENCE USA
missed. It is, however, a mostly clean slate for Chadwell. 11/18 MASSACHUSETTS -23 17.5
11/25 at UTEP -4.5 30
DEFENSE
Liberty has had really good defenses in each of the last three seasons, but
there are huge losses here and a new coaching staff. The Flames bid adieu to
their top three tacklers and five of the top six, including Durrell Johnson, who ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 QB 2000-1
8
had 18.5 tackles for loss. Liberty racked up 45 sacks, with nine from Johnson, NATIONAL
six from departed Dennis Osagiede, and five more from departed Treshaun
Clark. STARTERS DEFENSE: 3
CHAMPIONSHIP

Offensive growing pains could really hurt a rebuilding defense such as

Liberty’s. This group allowed 4.8 yards per play in 2021 and five yards per
play in 2022, but everything is brand new here. This is also the remnants of
a defense that allowed 36 points to UConn and 49 points to New Mexico State 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
down the stretch. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 6-7
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 28.1 58 25 47 9/3 at Southern Miss (-3.5) 29-27 W L
Liberty plays a really bad schedule. Joining Conference USA kept New Mexico
Yards Per Point 14.1 58 13.9 76 9/10 UAB (6) 21-14 W W
State on the slate, plus the other C-USA teams are not great. The nonconference
schedule also features Bowling Green, Buffalo, Old Dominion, and UMass. As Plays Per Game 71.9 51 9/17 at Wake Forest (18) 36-37 L W
mentioned, this is a good way to ease into Chadwell’s offense and being a Time of Possession 28:53 88 9/24 AKRON (-26.5) 21-12 W L
conference member, but it is not an easy scheme to learn, and Grayson McCall 3rd Down Conv. % 38.9% 57 34.3% 23 10/1 at Old Dominion (-3.5) 38-24 W W
is not walking through that door. Nevertheless, Liberty has a win total of 8.5 Total Yards Per Game 395 53 347.8 30 10/8 at Massachusetts (-23) 42-24 W L
with that pathetic schedule. I have them down for 8.23 wins, so I lean Under,
but they could be favored in as many as 11 games. Yards Per Play 5.5 57 4.8 19 10/15 GARDNER WEBB (-24.5) 21-20 W L
Rush Attempts Per Game 38.6 42 10/22 BYU (7) 41-14 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 178.9 44 151.3 61 11/5 at Arkansas (14.5) 21-19 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.6 43 3.8 36 11/12 at Connecticut (-13) 33-36 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 30.3 80 11/19 VIRGINIA TECH (-10.5) 22-23 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 58.5% 85 59.7% 52 11/26 NEW MEXICO ST (-24) 14-49 L L

UNDER 8.5
Passing Yards Per Game 216.1 86 196.4 20 12/20 vs. Toledo (4) 19-21 L W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.1 72 6.8 37
Turnovers 2 119 1.8 20

103
 LOUISIANA TECH HEAD COACH: SONNY CUMBIE (2ND)
BULLDOGS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JAKE BROWN / SCOTT PARR
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SCOTT POWER

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #115 OF 133

It was a rough first season for Sonny Cumbie and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.
For the second straight season, the Bulldogs went winless on the road and have
lost 14 in a row away from Ruston. All three wins came at home, and one of
them was against FCS Stephen F. Austin, whose former defensive coordinator
POWER RATING 30 CONFERENCE RANK: #6 OF 9

is the DC at LA Tech. Coincidentally, that was also the team’s best defensive
performance. But I think things are looking up, and this might be a surprise 2023 SCHEDULE
team this year. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
SCHEDULE 31.26
OFFENSE 8/26 FLA INTERNATIONAL -12 21.5
Cumbie got a decent first season out of Parker McNeil, but all three QBs from 9/2 at SMU 18.5 45
STRENGTH #125 TOUGHEST OF 133
last season have left the program. Hank Bachmeier transfers in from Boise
State after posting 6,605 yards and a 41/19 TD/INT ratio. A quarterback
with experience like Bachmeier should allow Cumbie, formerly the offensive
9/9 NORTHWESTERN ST -28 5
FIELD 2.9 / -0.3
coordinator at Texas Tech and TCU, to open up the playbook a bit more.
9/16 NORTH TEXAS 3.5 36.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Bachmeier doesn’t get the services of leading receiver Tre Harris, but he does 9/23 at Nebraska 18 46
get Smoke Harris and also Cyrus Allen, who had nearly 23 yards per catch as 9/29 at UTEP 2.5 30
a true freshman. All-name-team member De’Coldest Crawford could also be in
the mix after redshirting. 10/5 W KENTUCKY
10/10 at Middle Tenn St
8
5.5
40.5
32.5
2023 ODDS
While LA Tech’s rushing numbers weren’t great overall, both Marquis Crosby
and Charvis Thornton hit at least five yards per carry, with Thornton actually 10/24 NEW MEXICO ST -7.5 26

+800
leading the way with 5.8 yards per pop. Cumbie’s deep ties in the Lone Star 11/4 at Liberty 10 36.5 ODDS TO WIN
State should lead to an infusion of talent, and the offense could be much more CONFERENCE USA
explosive this season after managing 5.6 yards per play last year. 11/11 SAM HOUSTON ST -9.5 23
11/18 at Jacksonville St 5 32.5
DEFENSE
The defense was actually the problem for this team last season. The Bulldogs
surrendered 6.5 yards per play and gave up 6.1 yards per carry while
incorporating an all-or-nothing defense under defensive coordinator Scott ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 10000-1
11
Power. Only four starters are back from this group, which is probably a NATIONAL
good thing based on last season’s performance. The Bulldogs did rack up 11
interceptions, but they blitzed a lot and rarely got to the QB with 16 sacks. STARTERS DEFENSE: 4
CHAMPIONSHIP

Finding somebody to regularly harass the passer is the most important goal of
this unit.

Unfortunately, Cumbie and his staff weren’t really big players in the transfer
portal, so a lot of the guys that were in the program last season will hold key 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
roles this season. It is the second year in Power’s scheme, but the Bulldogs OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-9, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 9-3
didn’t exactly get better throughout the season. UAB ran for 406 yards on them STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
in the last game, and they gave up at least 414 yards to every C-USA opponent Points Per Game 26.9 66 39.8 129 9/1 at Missouri (20.5) 24-52 L L
except FIU.
Yards Per Point 14.2 65 12.1 121 9/10 STEPH F AUSTIN (-6.5) 52-17 W W
OUTLOOK Plays Per Game 72.3 45 9/17 at Clemson (33.5) 20-48 L W
This could be a really good team to bet Overs with because Bachmeier should Time of Possession 29:31 74 9/24 at S Alabama (13) 14-38 L L
add more legitimacy to the offense, and the defense projects to be awful yet 3rd Down Conv. % 35.8% 89 44.7% 113 10/8 UTEP (-1.5) 41-31 W W
again. The second season under an offensive-minded coach like Cumbie should Total Yards Per Game 381 66 483.6 127 10/15 at North Texas (6.5) 27-47 L L
create more chances to score points. I think it helps LA Tech that some of the
conference’s better teams are gone. They gave up 47 to North Texas, 42 to Yards Per Play 5.3 77 6.6 124 10/22 RICE (2.5) 41-42 L W
Rice, 51 to UTSA, and 37 to UAB. The betting markets also like them, with a Rush Attempts Per Game 32.5 101 10/28 at Fla International (-6.5) 34-42 L L
win total of 5.5 juiced heavy on the Over. My projection is for 6.44 wins. Rush Yards Per Game 109.1 112 252.2 131 11/5 MIDDLE TENN ST (2.5) 40-24 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.4 107 6.3 129 11/12 at Tx-San Antonio (17) 7-51 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 36.9 24 11/19 at Charlotte (-2) 21-26 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 59.1% 80 58.6% 41 11/26 UAB (18) 27-37 L W

OVER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 271.9 27 231.5 71
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 61 7.2 62
Turnovers 2.2 124 1.7 26

104
 MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE HEAD COACH: RICK STOCKSTILL (18TH)
BLUE RAIDERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MITCH STEWART
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SCOTT SHAFER

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #103 OF 133

The biggest benefactor of the arrivals and departures in Conference USA could
be Middle Tennessee. Head coach Rick Stockstill begins his 18th year with one
of the more talented teams in the league, but the Blue Raiders feel like they’ve
been floating in mediocrity for a while. Perhaps that changes with a much
POWER RATING 32.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #3 OF 9

weaker field. Two of MTSU’s four conference losses were to teams now gone,
but the performances against the holdovers weren’t all that impressive either. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
9/2 at Alabama 38 67.5
SCHEDULE 32.46
Nick Vattiato was pressed into duty in 2021 when the Blue Raiders had a rash
of injuries at the quarterback position. The redshirt he was supposed to use in 9/9 at Missouri 20 49.5
STRENGTH #119 TOUGHEST OF 133
his true freshman season got burned, as he started five games. Last season,
though, departed starter Chase Cunningham stayed healthy enough for
Vattiato to redshirt, and now this is unquestionably his offense. Vattiato has a
9/16 MURRAY ST -31.5 4
FIELD 2.9 / -0.1
7/7 TD/INT ratio and a little over 1,300 passing yards in his collegiate career.
9/23 COLORADO ST -5.5 30
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
9/28 at W Kentucky 10.5 40.5
Unfortunately for him, three receivers that accounted for 180 of the team’s 341 10/4 JACKSONVILLE ST -2.5 32.5
receptions are gone. MTSU was actually ninth in completions last season and
2023 ODDS
11th in attempts, so Vattiato’s performance will determine the ceiling for this 10/10 LOUISIANA TECH -5.5 30
squad with second-year offensive coordinator Mitch Stewart calling plays. It 10/17 at Liberty 7.5 36.5
makes sense to throw the ball, as the Blue Raiders only managed 3.1 yards per
carry last season. 11/4 at New Mexico St -4 26

+450
11/11 FLA INTERNATIONAL -14.5 21.5 ODDS TO WIN
DEFENSE CONFERENCE USA
What’s concerning about Middle Tennessee is that they are +23 in turnover 11/18 UTEP -6 30
margin over the last two seasons and just 15-11 in those 24 games. The 11/25 at Sam Houston St -6.5 23
Blue Raider defense tied for third in takeaways with 30 last season, trailing
conference foe Western Kentucky and Illinois. MTSU’s 20 interceptions were
the second-most in the nation. Eight starters are back, including elite corner
Teldrick Ross, who had 20 pass breakups and two of those interceptions. ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 5000-1
13
NATIONAL
Decorian Patterson is not back, though, and he led the team with seven picks.
Also missing from the equation is Jordan Ferguson, who had nine sacks and STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

eight tackles for loss. So, the Blue Raiders are replacing some real impact
dudes on defense, but they do have Ross and leading tackler Tra Fluellen back.
This group allowed 27.7 points per game, 5.5 yards per play, and 293 passing
yards per game, so the turnovers played a huge role. Without them, this was
not a very good unit, so they’ll have to continue ball-hawking under defensive 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
coordinator Scott Shafer. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 8-5
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 27.2 64 29.5 85 9/3 at James Madison (4.5) 7-44 L L
Middle Tennessee could really benefit from the new Conference USA members.
Yards Per Point 13.6 39 14.4 60 9/10 at Colorado St (14) 34-19 W W
Some teams in the league don’t take good care of the football, and that could
allow this defense to keep forcing takeaways. The offense may get a boost Plays Per Game 77.4 11 9/17 TENNESSEE ST (-19.5) 49-6 W W
from weaker defenses as well. And, yet, you wonder how high the ceiling is Time of Possession 28:11 107 9/24 at Miami Fl (25.5) 45-31 W W
for MTSU, given that they haven’t surpassed eight wins since 2009. MTSU has 3rd Down Conv. % 33.2% 107 38.6% 61 9/30 TX-SAN ANTONIO (4) 30-45 L L
not won a conference title since being the co-champs in the 2006 Sun Belt. Total Yards Per Game 368.6 76 426.1 104 10/8 at UAB (10) 14-41 L L
That seems like a program still destined to be mediocre, even with a weaker
schedule. I only have them down for 5.87 wins with a win total of 6.5. Yards Per Play 4.8 109 5.4 62 10/15 W KENTUCKY (7.5) 17-35 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 33.9 89 10/29 at UTEP (2.5) 24-13 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 99.4 120 121.4 24 11/5 at Louisiana Tech (-2.5) 24-40 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 2.9 127 3.4 17 11/12 CHARLOTTE (-10) 24-14 W T
Pass Attempts Per Game 40.6 11 11/19 FLA ATLANTIC (4.5) 49-21 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 65.7% 17 57.4% 27 11/26 at Fla International (-19.5) 33-28 W L

UNDER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 269.2 29 304.7 131 12/24 vs. San Diego St (7) 25-23 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.6 95 7.6 89
Turnovers 1.4 59 2.3 2

105
 NEW MEXICO STATE HEAD COACH: JERRY KILL (2ND)
AGGIES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TIM BECK
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: NATE DREILING / MELVIN RICE

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #124 OF 133

One of the best stories in college football last season was one that nobody
really paid attention to because it happened in Las Cruces, New Mexico. The
New Mexico State Aggies, led by first-year head coach Jerry Kill, went 7-6 and
won the Quick Lane Bowl over Bowling Green. The Aggies, who were limited to
POWER RATING 26 CONFERENCE RANK: #7 OF 9

two games in 2020, had won seven games total over the last three non-COVID
seasons. What does Kill have in store for an encore? 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 8/26 MASSACHUSETTS -11 17.5
SCHEDULE 28.78
It is really hard to read too much into the stats for New Mexico State. Their
9/2 W ILLINOIS -21.5 7
STRENGTH #132 TOUGHEST OF 133
athletic department is dependent on getting blown out from time to time, and
FIELD 2.2 / -0.4
it happened with a 38-0 loss to Minnesota with 91 yards of offense and a 66-7 9/9 at Liberty 14 36.5
loss to Wisconsin. On the other hand, the Aggies also dropped 65 on Valparaiso 9/16 at New Mexico -2.5 21
to get bowl-eligible and hung 51 on Lamar. So, you take the good with the bad.
9/23 at Hawaii 0 23
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Now, though, the Aggies won’t play an Independent schedule anymore, though 10/4 FLA INTERNATIONAL -7 21.5
they will rekindle the I-25 rivalry with New Mexico and still draw UMass. 10/11 SAM HOUSTON ST -4.5 23
Overall, the Aggies racked up 5.7 yards per play, the most since 2017, when
they last went to a bowl game. They rushed for 4.6 yards per carry, and sack 10/18 at UTEP 7 30
2023 ODDS
avoidance helped the passing attack with just 16 allowed. Diego Pavia’s job 10/24 at Louisiana Tech 7.5 30
was to get the ball out as fast as possible, and that will be the case again with 11/4 MIDDLE TENN ST 4 32.5 ODDS TO WIN
nine starters back, including every pass-catcher except the one that led the
11/11 at W Kentucky 17.5 40.5
25-1 CONFERENCE USA
team in receptions.
11/18 at Auburn 29 52
DEFENSE
11/25 JACKSONVILLE ST 4.5 32.5
What happened on defense was simply stunning. New Mexico State did play
a much weaker schedule, but the Aggies went from 40.4 points per game
ODDS TO WIN
allowed and 7.4 yards per play allowed to 23.9 points per game and five yards RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 5000-1
13
NATIONAL

STARTERS
per play. That was the lowest yards per play allowed by an Aggies defense in CHAMPIONSHIP
Division I-A. Defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling will turn 33 in October, and I DEFENSE: 4
think he’ll be in line for a big job upgrade following this season.

Let’s see what Dreiling does this season, as five of the top six tacklers are
gone, including Lazarus Williams and Chris Ojoh, who combined for 12.5 of
the team’s 28 sacks. FBS transfers generally aren’t interested in programs
like New Mexico State, which means scouring the JUCO ranks or making do
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 6-7
with what you’ve got. It will primarily be the latter for Dreiling, as only four STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
returning starters are back, but the rising DC might be a magic man. Points Per Game 19.5 109 26.7 60 8/27 NEVADA (7.5) 12-23 L L
Yards Per Point 15.2 86 13.4 91 9/1 at Minnesota (36) 0-38 L L
OUTLOOK
Plays Per Game 59.1 131 9/10 at UTEP (17) 13-20 L W
New Mexico State has a really interesting travel spot right before the bye.
One road game at Liberty in Lynchburg, Virginia, feeds into the rivalry Time of Possession 29:03 83 9/17 at Wisconsin (37.5) 7-66 L L
game against New Mexico, a game that the Aggies won for the first time in 3rd Down Conv. % 37.3% 80 39.9% 75 9/24 HAWAII (-4.5) 45-26 W W
four tries last season. After that, the Aggies fly to Honolulu to face Hawaii. Total Yards Per Game 296.5 122 357.7 38 10/1 FLA INTERNATIONAL (-15.5) 7-21 L L
Then they’ll play four road games in five weeks in October and November, Yards Per Play 5 95 5.2 46 10/15 NEW MEXICO (7) 21-9 W W
including a trip to get pummeled at Auburn. The schedule is still weak, so Rush Attempts Per Game 34.9 78 10/29 at Massachusetts (-1) 23-13 W W
my projections call for 5.68 wins with a win total line of 5.5, but I think the Rush Yards Per Game 154.4 61 162.9 76 11/12 LAMAR (-22) 51-14 W W
travel could be a real bear.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.4 54 4.2 65 11/19 at Missouri (29) 14-45 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 23.3 124 11/26 at Liberty (24) 49-14 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 49.2% 127 61.8% 85 12/3 VALPARAISO (-31.5) 65-3 W W

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 142.2 124 194.8 19 12/26 vs. Bowling Green (3) 24-19 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.1 115 7 49
Turnovers 1.5 83 1 113

106
 SAM HOUSTON STATE HEAD COACH: K.C. KEELER (10TH)
BEARKATS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRAD CORNELSON
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CLAYTON CARLIN / JOE MORRIS

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #128 OF 133

Head coach KC Keeler and the Sam Houston State Bearkats have been very
successful at the FCS level. Keeler was the National Champion in the spring of
2021 when the FCS played due to COVID. The Bearkats were 11-1 in the fall of
2021 with the quick turnaround, but only played nine games in 2022 and also
POWER RATING 23 CONFERENCE RANK: #8 OF 9

redshirted a few players to maintain their eligibility for the first year as an FBS
member. Keeler was 85-27 with SHSU in FCS, but now the task becomes much 2023 SCHEDULE
more difficult in Conference USA. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 at BYU 25 46
SCHEDULE 32.99
OFFENSE
FCS programs have fewer scholarships available, not to mention they lack the 9/9 vs. Air Force 18.5 41.5
STRENGTH #113 TOUGHEST OF 133
financial pull, especially in the NIL era, of FBS schools. It will take time for the
Bearkats to really build up to FBS standards, but they return a lot of starters
and a lot of production for the upcoming campaign. After scoring 41 points
9/23 at Houston 22 43.5
FIELD 2.8 / 0.5
per game with 6.6 yards per play in 2021, the Bearkats only mustered 18.3
9/28 JACKSONVILLE ST
10/5 at Liberty 16.5
7 32.5
36.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
points per game and 4.7 yards per play in 2022, as very, very heavy losses in
production and experience took their toll. 10/11 at New Mexico St 4.5 26

2023 ODDS
QB Keegan Shoemaker and former Arizona recruit and North Texas transfer 10/18 FLA INTERNATIONAL -5 21.5
Grant Gunnell will battle it out for starting reps, while Washington State 10/25 UTEP 4 30
transfer Xavier Ward may also get a look. Shoemaker’s numbers were not
strong with a 6/5 TD/INT ratio and just a 46.6% completion rate, so the job 11/4 KENNESAW ST -8 17.5
should be pretty wide-open. The Bearkats were a little more effective on the 11/11 at Louisiana Tech 9.5 30 ODDS TO WIN
ground behind Zach Hrbacek, who averaged 5.8 yards per carry. With the huge
11/18 at W Kentucky 19.5 40.5
NA CONFERENCE USA
losses from the 2020-21 teams lingering, it’s a bad time for the Bearkats to
make the leap. 11/25 MIDDLE TENN ST 6.5 32.5

DEFENSE
While the offense took a major nosedive, the defense still performed
admirably, and maybe even more so without help from the other side of ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 990-1
16
the ball. The SHSU defense allowed just 20.8 points per game while being NATIONAL
extremely stout against the run. The pass defense held opponents to a 56%
completion rate, but they went from 26 sacks to 16, albeit with three fewer STARTERS DEFENSE: 9
CHAMPIONSHIP

games played.

This is an experienced defense full of upperclassmen, so this part of the team

looks much more formidable and likely able to compete in a weak conference.
Most of the starters in the secondary are six feet tall or bigger, which will help 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
in a conference that does have some pass-happy offenses. If this group can OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-4, ATS: 3-6, O/U: 2-7
force some takeaways and turn defense into offense, or even put some points STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
on the board themselves, the projections for the Bearkats would be a lot more Points Per Game First Year as FBS School 9/3 at Texas A&M (36) 0-31 L W
promising.
Yards Per Point 9/10 N ARIZONA (-15) 3-10 L L
OUTLOOK Plays Per Game 9/17 TEXAS A&M-COMM (-23.5) 27-17 W L
The Bearkats have a season win total of 4 and my projections call for 3.27 Time of Possession 10/1 vs. Steph F Austin (-5) 17-16 W L
wins, so I’m a bit on the low side. They should be favored in at least two 3rd Down Conv. % 10/15 at E Kentucky (6) 25-17 W W
games, if not three, depending on how Jacksonville State looks at the outset. Total Yards Per Game 10/22 at Utah Tech (-14.5) 18-13 W L
The offense doesn’t appear to be FBS-ready, but the defense does, so it’ll be
interesting to see how the totals are lined for their games in a rough defensive Yards Per Play 10/29 at Tarleton St (-7.5) 40-21 W W
conference. I think it’ll be a tough transition to FBS. Rush Attempts Per Game 11/12 ABILENE CHRISTIAN (-9) 28-45 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 11/19 S UTAH (-11) 7-17 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt
Pass Attempts Per Game
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion %

UNDER 4
Passing Yards Per Game
Yards Per Pass Attempt
Turnovers

107
 UTEP HEAD COACH: DANA DIMEL (6TH)
MINERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SCOTTY OHARA
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRADLEY DALE PEVETO

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #114 OF 133

Even though expectations are understandably low at UTEP, there have been
some whispers that maybe Dana Dimel is in a make-or-break year. Given how
the conference is now the opposite of formidable, it does make sense that a
5-7 campaign wouldn’t cut it. Bowl eligibility is the baseline, and achieving
POWER RATING 30 CONFERENCE RANK: #5 OF 9

something more should be expected. With most of the offense back and a
chance to bring a little exposure to El Paso with those weeknight games, this is 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
a big year for the Miners.
8/26 at Jacksonville St 5 32.5
SCHEDULE 33.21
OFFENSE
9/2 INCARNATE WORD 9.5 41.5
STRENGTH #111 TOUGHEST OF 133
Eight starters return from an offense that actually regressed in 2022. The
Miners had 25.1 points per game and six yards per play in 2021. They dropped
to 24.4 points per game and 5.5 yards per play in 2022. Senior QB Gavin
9/9 at Northwestern 10.5 38.5
FIELD 2.4 / -0.4
Hardison is back to add to his numbers and is currently the third-leading
9/16 at Arizona
9/23 UNLV
15
-1
43
31.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
passer all-time in program history, but it would take over 4,000 yards to move
up any higher. UTEP will just settle for a better season than last year, with a 9/29 LOUISIANA TECH -2.5 30
52.1% completion rate and an 11/8 TD/INT ratio.
2023 ODDS
10/11 at Fla International -6 21.5
Scotty O’Hara goes from the wide receivers coach to the offensive coordinator 10/18 NEW MEXICO ST -7 26
in hopes of sparking something in the passing game. Top WR Tyrin Smith 10/25 at Sam Houston St -4 23
is back after catching 71 balls for 1,039 yards, but no other returnee ODDS TO WIN
11/4 W KENTUCKY 8.5 40.5
caught more than 21 passes. UTEP’s running game falls on the shoulders of
11/18 at Middle Tenn St 6 32.5
12-1 CONFERENCE USA
235-pound bruiser Deion Hankins, who was a conference second-teamer last
season, and he’ll be running behind a veteran offensive line. 11/25 LIBERTY 4.5 36.5

DEFENSE
The defense also took a step back from 2021 to 2022, perhaps leading to
ODDS TO WIN
skepticism about Dimel’s future. UTEP went from 25.2 points per game to 27 RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 10000-1
15
NATIONAL

STARTERS
points per game allowed and from 5.2 yards per play to 5.9 yards per play CHAMPIONSHIP
allowed. UTEP finished with a negative turnover margin for the eighth straight DEFENSE: 7
season, despite an odd amount of fumble luck, with 11 recoveries on 19
fumbles. The Miners only forced five interceptions, tied for 124th in the nation.

What’s odd is that UTEP was in the top 40 in third-down defense and the top 50
in red zone TD%, but still couldn’t convert that into enough victories. Leading
tackler Tyrice Wright is back, and so is third-leading tackler Kobe Hylton, but
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 4-7
top sack artist Jadrian Taylor took 9.5 of the 28 QB takedowns with him. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 24.4 81 27 61 8/27 NORTH TEXAS (1) 13-31 L L
OUTLOOK 15.8 99 13.1 104
Yards Per Point 9/3 at Oklahoma (31) 13-45 L L
This is such a hard team to figure out. Conference USA hasn’t been very good
Plays Per Game 72.2 48 9/10 NEW MEXICO ST (-17) 20-13 W L
for a while and is clearly weaker this season, but nothing stands out for UTEP
that would suggest an uptick in results or production. My projections have Time of Possession 33:47 6 9/17 at New Mexico (-2.5) 10-27 L L
UTEP with just 5.92 wins, but there are a handful of toss-up games on the 3rd Down Conv. % 39.1% 55 34.8% 25 9/23 BOISE ST (16.5) 27-10 W W
schedule with lines around +/-3. Falling short of a bowl game in this version of Total Yards Per Game 385.1 63 353.8 36 10/1 at Charlotte (-3.5) 41-35 W W
Conference USA would likely result in a pink slip for Dimel, so that’s a storyline Yards Per Play 5.3 71 5.7 85 10/8 at Louisiana Tech (1.5) 31-41 L L
to watch this season. With the line at 5.5, I’d peg UTEP likelier for six wins than Rush Attempts Per Game 38.5 45 10/22 FLA ATLANTIC (3) 24-21 W W
for five. Rush Yards Per Game 167.4 54 137.3 42 10/29 MIDDLE TENN ST (-2.5) 13-24 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.3 58 4.1 59 11/3 at Rice (3.5) 30-37 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 31.7 67 11/19 FLA INTERNATIONAL (-14) 40-6 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 53.2% 118 56.6% 18 11/26 at Tx-San Antonio (16.5) 31-34 L W

OVER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 217.7 84 216.5 42
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.9 81 8.2 112
Turnovers 1.8 103 1.3 74

108
 WESTERN KENTUCKY HEAD COACH: TYSON HELTON (5TH)
HILLTOPPERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DREW HOLLINGSHEAD / ZACK LANKFORD
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TYSON SUMMERS

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #70 OF 133

The likely class of Conference USA is the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, who
went 9-5 overall last season and outscored conference foes 38-19 while
outgaining them by an average of 136 yards per game. Even though he was
ready to leave, starting QB Austin Reed decided to stay and has the chance to
POWER RATING 40.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #1 OF 9

put up absurd numbers with a watered-down schedule and weaker defenses.

With three nine-win seasons in Tyson Helton’s four years as head coach, this 2023 SCHEDULE
could be the first with double-digit dubs. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 SOUTH FLORIDA -12 31.5
SCHEDULE 30.74
OFFENSE
Reed threw for 4,744 yards with 40 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions 9/9 HOUSTON BAPTIST -48 -4.5
STRENGTH #126 TOUGHEST OF 133
last season. The West Florida transfer filled in perfectly for Bailey Zappe, who
took his talents to the NFL, and a similar fate could be in store for Reed with
the stats he can compile this season. Leading receiver Malachi Corley caught
9/16 at Ohio St 31.5 69
FIELD 2.6 / 0.4
101 balls for 1,293 yards, but his supporting cast of Daewood Davis and Jaylen
9/23 at Troy
9/28 MIDDLE TENN ST
5.5
-10.5
44.5
32.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Hall moved on. However, with how much Western Kentucky threw the ball (623
pass attempts), guys like Michael Mathison and 6-5 Cincinnati transfer Blue 10/5 at Louisiana Tech -8 30
Smith will put up numbers.
2023 ODDS
10/17 at Jacksonville St -6 32.5
While WKU didn’t throw for 434 yards per game as they did in 2021, they were 10/24 LIBERTY -6.5 36.5
still second to Washington in passing yards per game with 352.1 and second
in attempts to Mississippi State. For good measure, the Hilltoppers also rushed 11/4 at UTEP -8.5 30

+130
for 4.9 yards per carry. For a team that throws as much as WKU does, a +21 11/11 NEW MEXICO ST -17.5 26 ODDS TO WIN
turnover margin in the last two seasons is remarkably impressive, and more of CONFERENCE USA
the same is likely in the new-look C-USA, especially with Mike Leach Air Raid 11/18 SAM HOUSTON ST -19.5 23
disciple Drew Hollingshead as the new offensive coordinator. 11/25 at Fla International -17.5 21.5

DEFENSE
This team isn’t all about the aerial assault and lighting up the scoreboard. The
defense was also really stout last season, holding opponents to 23.4 points ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 1000-1
11
per game and just 5.2 yards per play. In the four seasons under Helton, the NATIONAL
Hilltoppers have not allowed more than 5.6 yards per play, and the defense
took another step forward under new defensive coordinator Tyson Summers STARTERS DEFENSE: 4
CHAMPIONSHIP

last season. In his second year, Summers only has four returning starters, but
the caliber of opposing offense has gone down.

Leading tackler and head sack man JaQues Evans is one of the four returnees.
A lack of experience hits every level of the defense, especially the back seven. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
Fortunately, this is a good time for that to happen, given the state of the OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-5, ATS: 9-5, O/U: 7-7
conference, but it will be interesting to see what WKU looks like in road games STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
at Ohio State and Troy in Weeks 3 and 4 with a lot of newbies. Points Per Game 36.3 11 23.2 34 8/27 AUSTIN PEAY (-28) 38-27 W L
Yards Per Point 14 55 16.8 17 9/3 at Hawaii (-13) 49-17 W W
OUTLOOK
My numbers have WKU with 9.17 wins, and they are favored in every game Plays Per Game 75.4 23 9/17 at Indiana (7) 30-33 L W
except for those aforementioned matchups in the nonconference on the road. Time of Possession 28:58 85 9/24 FLA INTERNATIONAL (-31) 73-0 W W
In fact, I have Western Kentucky favored by a touchdown or more in every 3rd Down Conv. % 42.2% 35 35.9% 40 10/1 TROY (-4.5) 27-34 L L
other game. Their season win total is just 8.5 with the Over at plus money, and Total Yards Per Game 506.7 4 389.4 69 10/8 at Tx-San Antonio (6) 28-31 L W
this is one of my favorite season win total wagers. If they pull the mini upset at
Troy, it would take a complete catastrophe not to go Over. Yards Per Play 6.7 8 5.2 40 10/15 at Middle Tenn St (-7.5) 35-17 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 29.1 123 10/21 UAB (-1) 20-17 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 148.8 66 147.6 55 10/29 NORTH TEXAS (-10) 13-40 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 19 4 53 11/5 at Charlotte (-14.5) 59-7 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 45.2 3 11/12 RICE (-13.5) 45-10 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.6% 26 62.0% 88 11/19 at Auburn (4.5) 17-41 L L

OVER 8.5
Passing Yards Per Game 357.9 2 241.8 83 11/26 at Fla Atlantic (-7.5) 32-31 W L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.9 38 6.6 28 12/21 vs. S Alabama (4) 44-23 W W
Turnovers 1.5 81 2.2 5

109
independents
betting preview
In 2022, seven teams lived the independent life, but in 2023, only four remain. BYU jumped to the Big 12 after being independent for 12 years, while Liberty
and New Mexico State joined Conference USA. Notre Dame remains the most notable independent. A new TV deal with NBC could potentially keep the Irish
independent for many more years to come, but the money available in conference life could ultimately entice Notre Dame to join the Big Ten. The Irish do
have an agreement with the ACC and will play six ACC teams this year, in addition to clashes with Ohio State and USC.

Army has been an independent since 2005 following a brief seven-year stint in Conference USA. The Black Knights have reached a bowl game in five of the
last seven years. Only time will tell how long UConn will remain independent. After winning another basketball National Championship, there were reports
of the Huskies potentially moving to the Big 12. UConn reached a bowl game last year for the first time since 2015. Lastly, UMass has been an independent
since 2016. The Minutemen had a brief stint in the MAC from 2012-15. UMass had never won more than four games in the FBS ranks.

2023 PROJECTED STANDINGS (BASED ON STEVE MAKINEN RATINGS)

2023 Schedule Strength All Games Conference Games DraftKings
Team SM PR (Rank) PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's O/U
NOTRE DAME 58.5 44.84 (44) 8.9 3.1 0.0 0.0 9
ARMY 36 35.03 (95) 5.9 6.1 0.0 0.0 6
CONNECTICUT 32 33.25 (110) 5.5 6.5 0.0 0.0 5
MASSACHUSETTS 17.5 35 (96) 2.2 9.8 0.0 0.0 2

110
 ARMY HEAD COACH: JEFF MONKEN (10TH)
BLACK KNIGHTS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MATT DRINKALL / DREW THATCHER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: NATE WOODY

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #92 OF 133

The goal remains the same for Army every football season. Beat Navy, beat Air Force,
win the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, and reach a bowl game. The Black Knights
defeated Navy in double overtime last year but failed to win the CIC Trophy and did not
reach a bowl game. Head coach Jeff Monken enters his 10th season in West Point and
POWER RATING 36 CONFERENCE RANK: #2 OF 4
has done an incredible job turning the program around. Army has reached a bowl game
in five of the last seven seasons and has just one losing season since 2015.
2023 SCHEDULE
The Black Knights are making some tweaks to the offense in 2023 and will no longer run DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
the triple option from under center. Army will still use an option attack but will operate SCHEDULE 35.03
mainly out of the shotgun. Drew Thatcher is the new offensive coordinator in West Point, 9/2 at LA Monroe -8.5 24.5
coming over from Division II Nebraska-Kearney. The schedule is challenging this season.
9/9 DELAWARE ST -41.5 -3
STRENGTH #95 TOUGHEST OF 133
In addition to rivals Navy and Air Force, Army will play three P5 teams (Syracuse, Boston

2.3 / -0.3
College, LSU), as well as three G5 programs that reached a bowl game in 2022 (UTSA,
Troy, Coastal Carolina).
9/15 at TX-San Antonio 12 44.5
FIELD
OFFENSE
9/23 at Syracuse 14 47
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
It is hard to envision right now but come September 2 at UL Monroe, Army’s offense 10/7 BOSTON COLLEGE 0 38.5
will operate primarily out of the shotgun. Due to NCAA rule changes that eliminated
10/14 TROY 6.5 44.5
blocking below the waist anywhere but inside the tackle box, Monken decided to make

2023 ODDS
the massive change this spring. Monken told The Athletic, “We kind of limped through 10/21 at LSU 30 62.5
last season. I just didn’t feel like it was sustainable.” Army made a change at offensive
coordinator, bringing in Thatcher. Still, expect plenty of rushing for the Black Knights 10/28 MASSACHUSETTS -21.5 17.5
in 2023. Army rushed for 289.4 yards per game (2nd in FBS) last season. Nebraska-
Kearney finished fifth in Division II with 264.1 rushing yards per game.
11/4 vs. Air Force 6 41.5
11/11 HOLY CROSS -10 28 ODDS TO WIN
The Black Knights have zero combined starts in its quarterback room entering 2023. NA INDEPENDENT
Tyhier Tyler, Cade Ballard, and Jemel Jones all graduated. Tyler was Army’s leading 11/18 COASTAL CAROLINA -0.5 37.5
rusher last season, and Ballard attempted a team-high 46 passes. Despite losing Tyler,
the Black Knights’ top four leading running backs return in 2023. Tyson Riley, Jakobi
12/9 vs. Navy 1.5 37
Buchanan, Tyrell Robinson and Ay’Juan Marshall combined to rush for 1,353 yards
and 10 touchdowns last year. Marshall also had six receptions for 208 yards and two
touchdowns. Wide receiver Isaiah Alston could see more action this year. Alston was
ODDS TO WIN
Army’s leading receiver last year (16 catches, 269 yards, 1 TD). The offensive line has a
RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 2000-1
17
NATIONAL

STARTERS
combined 76 starts but could struggle at times with the new offensive scheme.
CHAMPIONSHIP
DEFENSE DEFENSE: 8
Eight starters return this season from last year’s defense, and defensive coordinator Nate
Woody is back for his fourth season in West Point. Army’s defense benefits from lack
of possessions due to lengthy offensive possessions. However, last year Army’s offense
finished 29th in time of possession (Air Force and Navy finished 1-2). Three players from

2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS

last year’s team were invited to three NFL mini-camps (LB Andre Carter, LB Marquel
Broughton, and DE Kwabena Bonsu). Andre Carter is a big loss after compiling 20 sacks
over his career (15.5 in 2021).
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-6, ATS: 7-5, O/U: 8-4
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK
It will be a transition year for Army, with drastic changes to the offensive in the works. Points Per Game 25.2 76 24.3 41 9/3 at Coastal Carolina (1.5) 28-38 L L
The Black Knights schedule in 2023 is more challenging than the 2022 schedule. Army Yards Per Point 13.7 44 15.3 40 9/10 TX-SAN ANTONIO (2) 38-41 L L
opens at UL Monroe, hosts UMass on October 28, and plays a pair of FCS opponents, but
Plays Per Game 64.7 121 9/17 VILLANOVA (-14) 49-10 W W
the other eight games will either be toss-us or expected losses.
Time of Possession 31:55 23 10/1 GEORGIA ST (-9) 14-31 L L
Army faces three Power Five teams in Syracuse, Boston College, and LSU, and three other 3rd Down Conv. % 41.0% 39 39.5% 71 10/8 at Wake Forest (16.5) 10-45 L L
quality G5 programs in UTSA, Troy, and Coastal Carolina. Last year, Army lost to UTSA
41-38 in OT, lost to Coastal Carolina 38-28, and slipped past Troy 10-9. All three teams Total Yards Per Game 345.9 99 372.3 48 10/15 COLGATE (-32.5) 42-17 W L
have win totals of 7.5 or better this season. Additionally, Army will play rivals Air Force Yards Per Play 5.3 69 5.8 99 10/22 LA MONROE (-6.5) 48-24 W W
(in Denver) and Navy (in Foxborough). Last year, the Black Knights won six games but
Rush Attempts Per Game 53.6 3 11/5 vs. Air Force (7) 7-13 L W
played just one Power Five program (Wake Forest). This season, the schedule intensifies,
and I’m not sure how much Army has improved. Rush Yards Per Game 253.9 3 202.6 116 11/12 at Troy (8.5) 9-10 L W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.7 40 5 115 11/19 CONNECTICUT (-10.5) 34-17 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 10 130 11/26 at Massachusetts (-20) 44-7 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 42.0% 131 62.0% 89 12/10 vs. Navy (2.5) 20-17 W W

UNDER 6
Passing Yards Per Game 92 129 169.7 3
Yards Per Pass Attempt 9.2 4 7.7 96
Turnovers 1.1 33 1.2 93

111
 CONNECTICUT HEAD COACH: JIM L. MORA (2ND)
HUSKIES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: NICK CHARLTON
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: LOU SPANOS

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #107 OF 133

Jim Mora worked a miracle in his first year in Storrs. Entering last season, UConn had won a total of
four games since 2018 (UConn did not play any games in 2020). Despite a preseason win total of
2.5 and losing its starting quarterback in the first game of the season, the Huskies somehow won six
games, including three wins as a touchdown underdog or more. UConn also played in its first bowl
game since 2015 (lost in the Myrtle Beach Bowl to Marshall, 28-14).
POWER RATING 32 CONFERENCE RANK: #3 OF 4

While Danny Hurley and Geno Auriemma have National Championships under their belts, Mora
should walk around the athletic department with his head held high after last year’s magical season.
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Now what will Mora and the Huskies do as an encore? The Huskies open the season with a nationally
televised primetime game against NC State at home (UConn is a 16.5-point underdog). In UConn’s
8/31 NC STATE 14 48.5
SCHEDULE 33.25
last home game, the Huskies defeated rock-solid Liberty, 36-33, as a 14-point underdog. Can UConn
pick up where they left off?
9/9 at Georgia St 5 34
STRENGTH #110 TOUGHEST OF 133

2.5 / -0.4
OFFENSE
Penn State transfer Ta’Quan Roberson opened the 2022 season as the Huskies starting quarterback.
Unfortunately, Roberson tore his ACL in the first quarter of UConn’s season opener at Utah State.
9/16 FLA INTERNATIONAL -13.5 21.5
FIELD
True freshman Zion Turner started the rest of the season and threw just nine touchdown passes. This
year, Roberson is expected back, but UConn added Maine transfer Joe Fagnano. UConn offensive
9/23 DUKE
9/30 UTAH ST
12.5
-4
47.5
30
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
coordinator Nick Charlton was Fagnano’s head coach from 2019-21 at Maine. Fagnano and Roberson
will likely compete for the starting quarterback role in the fall. 10/7 at Rice 4 33

2023 ODDS
The Huskies lost a pair of talented players to Power Five programs this offseason. Running back 10/21 SOUTH FLORIDA -3.5 31.5
Nathan Carter transferred to Michigan State, and WR Aaron Turner moved on to Cincinnati. Carter
rushed for 405 yards on 65 carries in four games last year before getting hurt and missing the 10/28 at Boston College 9 38.5
remainder of the season. Victor Rosa and Devontae Houston combined to rush for 1,218 yards and 14
touchdowns last year. Rosa and Houston return in 2023. The Huskies also added Louisville transfer
11/4 at Tennessee 28 56.5
Jalen Mitchell. Mitchell rushed for 722 yards in 2021. 11/11 at James Madison 11.5 39.5 ODDS TO WIN
Aaron Turner’s production will be difficult to replace. Turner finished with 57 catches for 527 yards 11/18 SACRED HEART -30 4.5
NA INDEPENDENT
and three touchdowns despite a limited passing attack. UConn also lost WR Keelan Marion (BYU) to
the portal. 11/25 MASSACHUSETTS -17.5 17.5
On the offensive line, the Huskies return four starters that started all 13 games last year. RG Christian
Haynes was UConn’s first All-American since 2010 and announced in December that he would be back
in 2023.
ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 5000-1
17
NATIONAL

STARTERS
DEFENSE
A week before the 2022 season, defensive coordinator Lou Spanos resigned. Jim Mora took over CHAMPIONSHIP
play-calling duties and will remain calling plays in 2023. The Huskies return eight starters from last DEFENSE: 8
year’s defense that allowed 380.5 yards per game (70th nationally). LB Jackson Mitchell is back after
leading the Huskies with 140 tackles in 2022. LB Brandon Bouyer-Randle had 98 tackles last year and
a team-high seven tackles for loss, but Bouyer-Randle is currently in training camp with the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers.

Corner Tre Wortham also departed after leading the Huskies with four interceptions last year. The
defensive line should be a strength, with DE Eric Watts returning after registering a team-high seven 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
sacks in 2022. The Huskies added some depth via the portal: LB Eriq Gilyard (Kansas), CB Mumu OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 9-4, O/U: 4-8
Bin-Wahad (West Virginia), Armauni Archie (Washington State), Zakhari Spears (Washington). STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 18.7 116 28.2 69 8/27 at Utah St (24) 20-31 L W
UConn reaching a bowl game in 2022 was one of the biggest surprises of the college football season. Yards Per Point 15.6 95 13.9 75 9/3 C CONN ST (-21) 28-3 W W
Mora’s squad went 9-4 ATS and the Huskies won and covered all three games they were favorites in.
UConn’s three other wins came against Fresno State (+23), Boston College (+7), and Liberty (+14). Plays Per Game 61.8 128 9/10 SYRACUSE (23.5) 14-48 L L
Under Mora, the UConn program seems to be headed in the right direction. Stability at quarterback Time of Possession 29:56 64 9/17 at Michigan (47.5) 0-59 L L
would be helpful after not getting much production last season.
3rd Down Conv. % 32.5% 111 44.1% 112 9/24 at Nc State (38) 10-41 L W
UConn plays four Power Five programs in 2023 and will be an underdog in all four games (NC State, Total Yards Per Game 291 124 392 72 10/1 FRESNO ST (23.5) 19-14 W W
Duke, at Boston College, at Tennessee). UConn will also be an underdog on the road against James
Madison on November 11. The Huskies should be a favorite and beat FIU, FCS Sacred Heart, and Yards Per Play 4.7 112 5.4 60 10/8 at Fla International (-6) 33-12 W W
UMass. The win total will likely come down to four toss-up games: at Georgia State, Utah State, at Rush Attempts Per Game 39.3 39 10/15 at Ball St (9.5) 21-25 L W
Rice, South Florida. With a strong offense and defense line, there is certainly a chance UConn heads
back to a bowl game for a second straight season, but I expect a little regression following last year’s Rush Yards Per Game 184.1 36 177.3 94 10/29 BOSTON COLLEGE (8) 13-3 W W
unexpected six-win season. Four or less wins are more likely than six or more. Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.7 42 4.4 89 11/4 MASSACHUSETTS (-14.5) 27-10 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 21.1 128 11/12 LIBERTY (13) 36-33 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 56.5% 101 63.4% 102 11/19 at Army (10.5) 17-34 L L

UNDER 5
Passing Yards Per Game 106.9 127 214.7 41 12/19 vs. Marshall (12) 14-28 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.1 129 7 54
Turnovers 1.5 72 1.8 20

112
 MASSACHUSETTS HEAD COACH: DON BROWN (2ND)
MINUTEMEN
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: STEVE CASULA
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KEITH DUDZINSKI

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #133 OF 133

UMass joined the FBS ranks back in 2012 and the Minutemen have not won more than
four games in a season since. Over the last four seasons, UMass is just 3-37. Additionally,
the Minutemen are 1-3 against FCS opponents during that span. Head coach Don Brown
is entering year two of his second stint as the head coach of UMass. Brown was the
defensive coordinator for UMass in 1998, when the Minutemen won the FCS National
POWER RATING 17.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #4 OF 4

2023 SCHEDULE
Championship. He was also the head coach in 2006, when UMass lost in the FCS National
Title game.
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Believe it or not, UMass was a successful program once upon a time, but that was over a
decade ago. Brown left UMass in 2009 to become the defensive coordinator at Maryland. 8/26 at New Mexico St 11 26
SCHEDULE 35.00
Prior to his return, he spent time as the defensive coordinator at UConn, Boston College,
Michigan, and Arizona. While the record did not indicate it, the Minutemen improved 9/2 at Auburn 37.5 52
STRENGTH #96 TOUGHEST OF 133
from 2021 to 2022 and will open the season on the big stage in Week 0. UMass will visit
FIELD 1.9 / -0.5
New Mexico State for a primetime game on ESPN. 9/9 MIAMI OHIO 15 34.5
9/16 at E Michigan 16.5 32
OFFENSE
Quarterback play was a disaster in Amherst last season. Four QBs combined to throw four 9/23 NEW MEXICO 1 21
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
touchdowns and 14 interceptions over the season. UMass finished last in FBS with 12.5
points per game and racked up just 266.0 yards per game. QB Taisun Phommachanh will 9/30 ARKANSAS ST 8.5 28
take over the starting quarterback role this year. Phommachanh was a four-star recruit in
10/7 TOLEDO 22.5 42
the class of 2019 and spent the first three years of his college career at Clemson before
transferring to Georgia Tech last year. 10/14 at Penn St 47 61.5
2023 ODDS
UMass lost leading rusher Ellis Merriweather from last year’s team, but Kay’Ron Adams 10/28 at Army 21.5 36
is back. The Minutemen also added Arizona transfer RB Jalen John. WR George Johnson
returns after leading UMass with 402 receiving yards last year, and UMass adds a pair 11/4 MERRIMACK -11 8 ODDS TO WIN
of transfers that will likely start alongside Johnson. Wide receiver Anthony Simpson
11/18 at Liberty 23 36.5
NA INDEPENDENT
transferred in from Arizona, where he saw the majority of his action as a kickoff
returner. Wideout Mark Pope spent last year at Jackson State but caught 33 passes for 11/25 at Connecticut 17.5 32
403 yards in 2020 for Miami (FL). Tackle Max Longman transferred to Indiana, so the
offensive line could be an issue. But with improved quarterback play, the UMass offense
should be improved in 2023.

DEFENSE ODDS TO WIN

RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 10000-1
15
Eight starters return for UMass in 2023 after drastically improving in Brown’s first season NATIONAL
back. The Minutemen finished 55th in the nation in yards allowed per game (369.6),
but they will be without three key pieces of last year’s defense. Corner Josh Wallace hit
the portal in May and ultimately landed at Michigan. The secondary did add Vanderbilt
STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

transfer S Dashaun Jerkins and Minnesota transfer CB Steven Ortiz. Corner Jordan
Mahoney had a solid freshman year with six pass breakups and three interceptions. Up
front, DE Marcus Cushnie is gone after compiling 5.5 sacks a year ago. Leading tackler
LB Jalen Mackie also departed. But linebacker Jerry Roberts transferred in from Arizona.
He started all 12 games for the Wildcats last year and had 78 tackles.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OUTLOOK OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 1-11, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 4-8
UMass has been one of, if not the, worst FBS program on a yearly basis since jumping STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
from FCS in 2012. In the first year under Brown, UMass was outgained by 103.8 yards Points Per Game 11.8 130 33.6 111 9/3 at Tulane (28.5) 10-42 L L
per game, an 80-yard improvement from 2021. The quarterback play last year was
horrendous and should see a massive improvement this year. Yards Per Point 22.5 130 11.1 131 9/10 at Toledo (28) 10-55 L L
Plays Per Game 69 82 9/17 STONY BROOK (-1) 20-3 W W
The Minutemen are a 9-point underdog at New Mexico State in Week 0 and a
39.5-point underdog at Auburn over Labor Day weekend. While assuming a victory Time of Possession 31:50 24 9/24 at Temple (10) 0-28 L L
for UMass is a reach, the Minutemen should defeat FCS Merrimack on November 4. 3rd Down Conv. % 27.8% 127 32.8% 16 10/1 at E Michigan (19.5) 13-20 L W
New Mexico and Arkansas State both visit Amherst in September, and both of those
games are potential toss-ups. UMass also plays three other MAC schools (Miami OH, Total Yards Per Game 265.9 128 372.9 49 10/8 LIBERTY (23) 24-42 L W
at Eastern Michigan, Toledo). While the Minutemen will be an underdog in all three Yards Per Play 3.9 130 6 110 10/15 BUFFALO (17) 7-34 L L
of those games, it is not crazy to think UMass could sneak out a win in one of those
Rush Attempts Per Game 43.4 12 10/29 NEW MEXICO ST (1) 13-23 L L
games. UMass wraps up the season with a neutral-site game against UConn. The
Minutemen have not won more than one game in a season since 2018, but this year, Rush Yards Per Game 147.9 67 200.5 114 11/4 at Connecticut (14.5) 10-27 L L
UMass has a chance to win three or four games. Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.4 103 5.1 119 11/12 at Arkansas St (17.53) 33-35 L W
Pass Attempts Per Game 23.5 123 11/19 at Texas A&M (32) 3-20 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 48.1% 128 55.0% 10 11/26 ARMY (20) 7-44 L L

OVER 2
Passing Yards Per Game 118 126 172.5 5
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5 130 8.2 116
Turnovers 1.6 93 1.5 62

113
 NOTRE DAME HEAD COACH: MARCUS FREEMAN (2ND)
FIGHTING IRISH
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: GERAD PARKER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: AL GOLDEN

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #13 OF 133

58.5
The first season of the Marcus Freeman era was a bit of a roller coaster ride. Notre Dame finished
with a 9-4 record and a thrilling 45-38 win over South Carolina in the Gator Bowl. The Irish dominated
Clemson, 35-14, but also inexplicably lost to Marshall and Stanford at home. Notre Dame went 6-1
ATS as an underdog or a favorite of seven or fewer points in 2022, while going 1-5 ATS as a favorite
POWER RATING CONFERENCE RANK: #1 OF 4
of seven or more points with two outright losses.

The Irish massively upgraded the quarterback position this offseason, adding former Wake Forest
QB Sam Hartman. However, the Irish lost offensive coordinator Tommy Rees to Alabama, legendary
offensive line coach Harry Hiestand to retirement, and special teams coordinator Brian Mason to the
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Indianapolis Colts. Notre Dame opens up the season with a trip to Ireland against Navy, hosts Ohio
State and USC, and plays six ACC opponents this year, including a visit to Clemson in November. 8/26 vs. Navy -22 37
SCHEDULE 44.84
OFFENSE 9/2 TENNESSEE ST -50.5 11
STRENGTH #44 TOUGHEST OF 133
It all starts with the quarterback and Notre Dame might have its best quarterback to start a season

FIELD 2.8 / 0.5

since Brady Quinn. Hartman comes to South Bend after a prolific career at Wake Forest. Hartman set 9/9 at NC State -7.5 48.5
ACC records for career passing yards and touchdowns. Shortly after Hartman’s arrival, however, Nick
9/16 C MICHIGAN -28.5 32.5
RATINGS
Saban poached Rees. (Rees also took QB Tyler Buchner to Alabama after the spring). Following a bit
of a clumsy search for Rees’ replacement, Marcus Freeman promoted tight ends coach Gerard Parker (HOME/ROAD)
to offensive coordinator. On the surface, the hire is questionable, considering the funds Notre Dame 9/23 OHIO ST 8 69
has at its disposal — as well as Parker’s lack of play-calling experience.
9/30 at Duke -9.5 47.5
On the good side, Notre Dame’s offensive line is anchored by a pair of potential first-round picks.
10/7 at Louisville -5.5 50
2023 ODDS
Tackles Joe Alt and Blake Fisher could be the best duo in the country. Starting C Zeke Correll also
returns, but the Irish need to replace G Jarrett Patterson, who was drafted by the Houston Texans.
Running back Audric Estime had a breakout season in 2022, leading the Irish with 920 rushing yards 10/14 USC 1 62
and 11 touchdowns. Estime should have over 1,000 yards this season running behind that line.
10/28 PITTSBURGH -13.5 47.5
Notre Dame lost RB Logan Diggs to LSU (821 rushing yards) and Chris Tyree has moved from RB to
11/4 at Clemson 3 59.5 ODDS TO WIN
WR. Tight end Michael Mayer moved on to the NFL and was drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders in the
second round. Mayer led the Irish with 67 receptions, 809 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.
11/18 WAKE FOREST -15.5 45.5
NA INDEPENDENT
Wideout Jayden Thomas will likely be Hartman’s main target this fall. Thomas began to emerge down
the stretch last season and had five receptions in the Gator Bowl (Mayer opted out). Wide receiver
Tobias Merriweather could have a breakout season this year, and the Irish also brought in three
11/25 at Stanford -23.5 34
four-star recruits at the position that could see some early action.

DEFENSE
One of the most stunning stats regarding Notre Dame in 2022 was its red zone defense. If an ODDS TO WIN
opponent entered the red zone, it almost always left with points. Notre Dame allowed a touchdown RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 28-1
13
NATIONAL

STARTERS
79% of the time and allowed points on 94% of its opponents’ red zone trips (32-34).
CHAMPIONSHIP
Defensive coordinator Al Golden enters his second season in South Bend and is coming off his first full DEFENSE: 8
offseason (Golden joined Notre Dame’s staff following the Bengals’ Super Bowl appearance in 2021).
The strength of the defense will be at linebacker. JD Bertrand, Jack Kiser, and Marist Liufau all return.
They were the top three tacklers on the team last year. Former five-star recruit Jaylen Sneed should
see some more playing in his sophomore season as well.

At cornerback, the Irish have a strong duo in Cam Hart and Benjamin Morrison. Morrison had six
interceptions last year and was a Freshman All-American last year. The safety position is the biggest
concern for Notre Dame this year. The Irish added FCS Rhode Island transfer Antonio Carter in the
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
spring to help bolster the position, but there is still plenty of cause for concern. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-4, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 8-4
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Up front, Notre Dame needs to replace DE Isaiah Foskey (second-round pick by Saints) and the Points Per Game 31.8 33 23 32 9/3 at Ohio St (17) 10-21 L W
Ademiloa twins. The Irish added Ohio State transfer Javontae Jean-Baptiste to fill Foskey’s role, but
the front line seems to be missing some much-needed beef. Yards Per Point 12.5 13 14.3 64 9/10 MARSHALL (-20.5) 21-26 L L
Plays Per Game 68.5 89 9/17 CALIFORNIA (-13.5) 24-17 W L
OUTLOOK
Notre Dame will play in the first college football game of the 2023 season against Navy over in Time of Possession 32:11 16 9/24 at North Carolina (2.5) 45-32 W W
Ireland in Week 0. After playing its first-ever FCS opponent (Tennessee State) on Labor Day weekend,
the Irish will visit NC State on September 9. Notre Dame will be an underdog against Ohio State and 3rd Down Conv. % 47.2% 13 36.3% 43 10/8 vs. BYU (-3.5) 28-20 W W
Clemson, and around a pick ‘em against USC on October 14. The Irish have several tricky games, Total Yards Per Game 396.2 52 329.5 18 10/15 STANFORD (-16.5) 14-16 L L
including trips to Duke and Louisville, as well as a home game against Pitt the week before Clemson.
Yards Per Play 5.8 44 4.9 27 10/22 UNLV (-26) 44-21 W L
I predict Notre Dame will go 1-2 against Ohio State, Clemson, and USC but will drop at least one Rush Attempts Per Game 40.9 21 10/29 at Syracuse (-1) 41-24 W W
game as a favorite. Marcus Freeman’s early track record of losing games as a big favorite does not
bode well with a number of unique road games this year. The most likely outcome for the Irish is a Rush Yards Per Game 189 32 131.5 34 11/5 CLEMSON (3.5) 35-14 W W
nine-win season, but Notre Dame is more likely to win eight games than 10.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.6 44 3.9 41 11/12 at Navy (-16.5) 35-32 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 26 117 11/19 BOSTON COLLEGE (-20) 44-0 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 62.4% 47 58.7% 42 11/26 at USC (4.5) 27-38 L L

UNDER 9
Passing Yards Per Game 207.2 92 198 22 12/30 vs. South Carolina (-5) 45-38 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8 34 6.5 22
Turnovers 1.4 57 1.2 103

114
mac
betting preview
While there has been massive realignment in college football in recent years, the Mid-American Conference has remained incredibly stable. The current
12 football teams have all been members since 1998, when Buffalo joined. The last to leave was Marshall in 2005.

Toledo beat Ohio 17-7 in the MAC Championship Game last December and is the +170 favorite to repeat at DraftKings Sportsbook. Ohio is the favorite to
repeat in the East Division and is the +280 second choice to win the annual title game in Detroit. Other top contenders appear to be Buffalo (+650), Eastern
Michigan (+800) and Miami (OH) (+850).

The next tier with some upside is Northern Illinois (+1600), Central Michigan (+1800) and Bowling Green (+2200). Remember that even though Toledo was
expected to contend for the MAC title last year, Ball State won it at 10-1 in 2022 (predicted in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide), and Northern Illinois
the year before that in 2021, despite only having an Over/Under season win total of 4 after going 0-6 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The even
longer shots are Ball State (30-1), Akron (35-1), Western Michigan (50-1) and Kent State (150-1).

Being a Group of Five conference (aka “mid-major”) in the transfer portal/NIL era, the MAC loses a lot of top talent to Power Five programs. But the upside
is that the conference does attract some players that fall through the cracks at the big schools and move to the MAC to increase their playing time and
exposure.

Of course, one of the best things about betting on the Mid-American Conference is the midweek primetime “MACtion” games on ESPN in November, when
teams get the rare chance to play in front of a national audience.

2023 PROJECTED STANDINGS (BASED ON STEVE MAKINEN RATINGS)

2023 Schedule Strength All Games Conference Games DraftKings
Team SM PR (Rank) PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's O/U
EAST DIVISION
OHIO U 36.5 29.94 (127) 7.5 4.5 5.6 2.4 7.5
MIAMI OHIO 34.5 29.14 (131) 7.2 4.8 5.0 3.0 7
BUFFALO 31.5 33.36 (109) 5.6 6.4 4.2 3.8 6.5
BOWLING GREEN 28 33.98 (105) 4.6 7.4 3.3 4.7 4.5
AKRON 24 32.13 (122) 3.7 8.3 2.4 5.6 3.5
KENT ST 20.5 32.83 (115) 3.0 9.0 2.0 6.0 2.5
WEST DIVISION
TOLEDO 42 29.73 (128) 9.2 2.8 6.3 1.7 9
E MICHIGAN 32 29.32 (130) 6.7 5.3 4.4 3.6 7
N ILLINOIS 31.5 32.97 (114) 5.6 6.4 4.2 3.8 5.5
C MICHIGAN 32.5 35.37 (90) 5.4 6.6 4.2 3.8 5.5
BALL ST 30.5 34.58 (100) 5.4 6.6 3.9 4.1 4.5
W MICHIGAN 26 36.93 (80) 3.3 8.7 2.5 5.5 3.5

115
 AKRON HEAD COACH: JOE MOORHEAD (2ND)
ZIPS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BILLY FESSLER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TIM TIBESAR

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #127 OF 133

Akron obviously had an atrocious 2022 season at 2-12 with a -13 turnover
margin (ranked No. 128 in the nation) and only wins against St. Francis (Pa.)
and a down Northern Illinois team. There is a little hope for improvement
with coach Joe Moorhead (Oregon, Mississippi State, Penn State, etc.) entering
POWER RATING 24 CONFERENCE RANK: #11 OF 12

his second season with the program as he continues to add players to run his
offense. However, that might not matter if the defense doesn’t improve on its 2023 SCHEDULE
33.5 points allowed average. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 at Temple 12.5 33.5
SCHEDULE 32.13
OFFENSE
DJ Irons showed improvement under Moorhead’s direction, throwing for 9/9 MORGAN ST -26 0
STRENGTH #122 TOUGHEST OF 133
2,606 yards and 10 TDs while adding another 314 yards and four TDs on the
ground, but he did miss spring drills with injuries. Jeff Undercuffler Jr. (791
passing yards, five TDs, five INTs) took the spring snaps, so we’ll see who
9/16 at Kentucky 32.5 52.5
FIELD 1.5 / -0.5
starts in the fall.
9/23 at Indiana
9/30 BUFFALO
18
6
39
31.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

No matter who’s running Moorhead’s offense, Akron surprisingly ranked No. 10/7 N ILLINOIS 6 31.5
18 in the nation last season, though not too surprising since the Zips were
2023 ODDS
almost always playing from behind. That also led Moorhead to try to improve 10/14 at C Michigan 12 32.5
a running game that averaged just 89.6 yards per game (last in the MAC and 10/21 at Bowling Green 6.5 28
No. 125 in the country). They might have found their running back in Lorenzo
Lingard Jr., formerly of Miami (FL) and Florida (Florida Player of the Year in KENT ST -5.5 20.5
2017), or perhaps Drake Anderson, formerly of Northwestern and Arizona. 11/8 at Miami Ohio 14 34.5 ODDS TO WIN

11/14 at E Michigan 10 32
35-1 MAC
Last year, LSU transfer Alex Adams filled the stat sheet with 63 catches for 856
yards and nine TDs to be named All-MAC. It looks like his running mate will 11/24 OHIO U 11 36.5
be Dakota Thomas, a transfer from Western Kentucky (another pass-happy
program), who impressed during spring practice.

DEFENSE ODDS TO WIN

RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 10000-1
15
The Zips lost 20 players to the transfer portal, but no departure was as NATIONAL
surprising as All-MAC linebacker Bubba Arslanian announcing after spring
practice that he was passing up his final year of eligibility. That’s a huge loss STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

for a defense that already allowed 33.5 points a game last season (No. 1117 in
the nation) and 406.2 yards per game (No. 91).

After all the departures, safety Nate Thompson is the leading returning tackler
(73 last year) and linebacker Antavious Fish is the leading returning sacker 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
(just two). Moorhead’s reputation as a developer of NFL talent (albeit on OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 2-10, ATS: 6-5, O/U: 6-6
the offensive side of the ball) did bring in a decent amount of help in the STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
transfer portal. Division II’s DE Ahmad Rabah (18 sacks, 22.5 tackles for loss at Points Per Game 21 104 34.5 116 9/1 ST FRANCIS PA (-18.5) 30-23 W L
American International) and DT Terray Jones (8.5 sacks at Tennessee State and
Yards Per Point 17.7 116 11.7 128 9/10 at Michigan St (34.5) 0-52 L L
a reported standout at spring practice) could make the most immediate impact.
Plays Per Game 77.5 9 9/17 at Tennessee (47.5) 6-63 L L
OUTLOOK Time of Possession 30:34 52 9/24 at Liberty (26.5) 12-21 L W
The Zips’ win total is obviously low, but it’s still hard to find enough winnable 3rd Down Conv. % 35.7% 90 36.3% 42 10/1 BOWLING GREEN (8.5) 28-31 L W
games, even with that confidence-win over Northern Illinois late last season. Total Yards Per Game 371.5 74 402.4 81 10/8 at Ohio U (9.5) 34-55 L L
They probably can’t beat Temple, Kentucky or Indiana on their nonconference
schedule, and we can’t say they’re a lock versus an FCS program like Morgan Yards Per Play 4.8 105 5.9 104 10/15 C MICHIGAN (12) 21-28 L W
State. (We’re sure they see Akron as a winnable game.) And it would also Rush Attempts Per Game 30.9 112 10/22 at Kent St (16) 27-33 L W
probably take a sweep of other MAC also-rans (Bowling Green and Kent State) Rush Yards Per Game 88.8 127 160.5 73 10/29 MIAMI OHIO (9) 9-27 L L
to even sniff the Over on its win total. Yards Per Rush Attempt 2.9 128 4.3 70 11/8 E MICHIGAN (6) 28-34 L T
Pass Attempts Per Game 42.2 7 11/26 at N Illinois (9.5) 44-12 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.9% 23 60.0% 56 12/2 at Buffalo (12.5) 22-23 L W

UNDER 3.5
Passing Yards Per Game 282.7 19 241.9 84
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.7 90 8.3 119
Turnovers 2.3 127 1 113

116
 BALL STATE HEAD COACH: MIKE NEU (8TH)
CARDINALS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JARED ELLIOTT / KEVIN LYNCH
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TYLER STOCKTON

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #113 OF 133

There was hope for David Letterman’s alma mater to return to its 2020
MAC-winning form, but Ball State had its second straight losing season at 5-7
last year (3-5 in the MAC West) despite starting 2-1 in conference play. The
Cardinals went 1-4 down the stretch with the only win over lowly Kent State,
POWER RATING 30.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #8 OF 12

including losing the last three games with a chance to become bowl-eligible.
Now, they have to rebuild even more after suffering big losses in the transfer 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
portal.
9/2 at Kentucky 25 52.5
SCHEDULE 34.58
OFFENSE
9/9 at Georgia 42.5 70.5
STRENGTH #100 TOUGHEST OF 133
Nearly every MAC team loses talented players to the Power Five, but Ball State
FIELD 2.4 / 0.2
was hit harder than most as it lost QB John Paddock (2,719 passing yards 9/16 INDIANA ST -18.5 14.5
last season. 18 TDs) to Illinois and RB Carson Steele (1,556 rushing yards, 14 9/23 GA SOUTHERN 0 33
TDs) to UCLA. At least coach Mike Neu was able to get Marquez Cooper (1,331
9/30 at W Michigan -2 26
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
yards, 13 TDs, second to Steele in the MAC) from Kent State.
10/7 at E Michigan 3 32
The QB job is reportedly still open with last year’s backup, Kiael Kelly (who 10/14 TOLEDO 9 42
only threw one pass all season), trying to hold off transfer Layne Hatcher,
who has 10,090 career passing yards at Arkansas State and Texas State after 10/21 C MICHIGAN 0 32.5
2023 ODDS
red-shirting his freshman year at Alabama. at Bowling Green -0.5 28
11/7 at N Illinois 2.5 31.5 ODDS TO WIN
The offensive line returns three starters, and the Cardinals have two solid tight
11/18 KENT ST -12.5 20.5
30-1 MAC
ends in Brady Hunt and Tanner Koziol (combined for 81 catches, 871 yards,
and 12 TDs last season), but the wide receiving corps is inexperienced, with the 11/25 MIAMI OHIO 1.5 34.5
top returnee being Nick Presley (six catches, 35 yards).

DEFENSE
ODDS TO WIN
Ball State’s pass defense allowed just 216.1 yards per game (ranked No. 49 in RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 10000-1
13
NATIONAL

STARTERS
the nation) to keep the Cardinals in most games, but they lost three defensive CHAMPIONSHIP
backs — Nic Jones, AJ Uzodinma and Jaquan Amos — to the NFL Draft that DEFENSE: 7
combined for 167 tackles, six INTs and 24 pass deflections. Those will be hard
to replace, and Neu was still searching for answers after spring ball.

The front seven is now stronger, led by linebackers Clayton Coll (team-leading
110 total tackles) and Cole Pearce (85 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, team-leading
five sacks). Lineman Tavion Woodard and Sidney Houston Jr. tied for second on
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-6, ATS: 7-5, O/U: 3-9
the team with four sacks. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 22.5 94 29.4 82 9/1 at Tennessee (36.5) 10-59 L L
OUTLOOK 16.7 112 14.4 62
Yards Per Point 9/10 W MICHIGAN (6.5) 30-29 W W
The Cardinals have a brutal start to the season with road games at two SEC
Plays Per Game 74.5 30 9/17 MURRAY ST (-21) 31-0 W W
teams, opening as 26.5-point road underdogs at Kentucky and then traveling
to defending national champion Georgia. If they’re not totally run over, they Time of Possession 27:13 121 9/24 at Ga Southern (9.5) 23-34 L L
have a chance to bounce back against Indiana State and Georgia Southern. 3rd Down Conv. % 35.2% 97 41.0% 85 10/1 N ILLINOIS (3.5) 44-38 W W
Ball State’s upside this season is probably to be a middle-of-the-road MAC Total Yards Per Game 375.9 71 421.5 99 10/8 at C Michigan (7.5) 17-16 W W
team, but with the Over/Under season win total set so low at 4.5 wins, the Yards Per Play 5 92 5 34 10/15 CONNECTICUT (-9.5) 25-21 W L
play is on the Over with enough winnable games on the schedule, especially Rush Attempts Per Game 33.7 92 10/22 E MICHIGAN (-2.5) 16-20 L L
Western Michigan, Bowling Green and Kent State. And if the QB situation is Rush Yards Per Game 147.3 68 191.9 107 11/1 at Kent St (7) 27-20 W W
resolved, another upset or two is possible.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.4 56 4.2 67 11/8 at Toledo (14) 21-28 L W
Pass Attempts Per Game 39.7 14 11/15 OHIO U (3.5) 18-32 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 59.5% 77 59.3% 51 11/22 at Miami Ohio (2.5) 17-18 L W

OVER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 228.6 66 229.5 64
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.8 120 6.4 19
Turnovers 1.8 106 1.1 104

117
 BOWLING GREEN HEAD COACH: SCOT LOEFFLER (5TH)
FALCONS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: GREG NOSAL / MAX WARNER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SAMMY LAWANSON / STEVE MORRISON

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #119 OF 133

Bowling Green had an up-and-down season in 2021 and fittingly ended 6-6,
though the Falcons did become bowl-eligible after an upset of eventual MAC
champion Ohio in the next-to-last regular season game before losing 24-19 in
the Quick Lane Bowl. The prospects for 2022 aren’t as high as they lost starting
POWER RATING 28 CONFERENCE RANK: #9 OF 12

QB Matt McDonald to graduation and several players in the transfer portal

while having a couple of years of lowly-rated recruiting classes. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/2 at Liberty 12 36.5
SCHEDULE 33.98
Backup QB Camden Orth (three TD passes, one rushing TD) did play in 10
9/9 E ILLINOIS -22.5 8
STRENGTH #105 TOUGHEST OF 133
games last year, including throwing for 191 yards in the bowl loss, but he’s in
FIELD 2.2 / -0.4
a battle with former Missouri and Indiana starter Connor Bazelak (more than 9/16 at Michigan 42.5 67
7,000 passing yards and 36 TDs in 29 starts over four seasons). Coach Scot
9/23 OHIO U 6.5 36.5
Loeffler has a tough call and said the competition will continue into the fall.
9/30 at Georgia Tech 13 39
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Sophomore RB Terion Stewart led BGSU with 412 rushing yards in 2021 but 10/7 at Miami Ohio 10 34.5
missed last season with personal issues. His return should help the running
10/14 at Buffalo 7 31.5
game, though the major concern is the offensive line, which did add some
transfers from Power Five conferences but also had several returnees nursing 10/21 AKRON -6.5 24
2023 ODDS
injuries during spring practice. BALL ST 0.5 30.5
Tyrone Broden (32 catches, 506 yards, seven TDs) transferred to Arkansas, but 11/8 at Kent St -3.5 20.5 ODDS TO WIN
the Falcons return top receiver Odieu Hiliare (58 catches, 747 yards, six TDs) 11/14 TOLEDO 12 42
22-1 MAC
and is also deep at tight end, so there is some talent to improve on last year’s
11/21 at W Michigan 1 26
23.5 points per game (ranked No. 97) if the offensive line develops.

DEFENSE
The defense allowed a whopping 32.5 points per game last season (ranked ODDS TO WIN
No. 113). There was a silver lining as the Falcons had a school-record-tying 38 RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 5000-1
12
NATIONAL
sacks and were tied for No. 13 in FBS. However, that was with Karl Brooks (10
sacks last season and 27.5 to rank No. 3 in BGSU history), and he’s off to the STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

NFL after being selected in the sixth round by the Packers. The best returning
lineman is Anthony Hawkins, but he’s a nose guard and not as much of a
threat to get to the QB.

Linebacker Demetrius Hardamon is the leading returnee with six sacks, but 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
the Falcons have several more holes to fill. One interesting returnee is Davon OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 4-8, O/U: 7-6
Ferguson, who transferred to Georgia Southern but returned to BGSU. That STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
would help, along with JUCO transfer Marquette Harris at linebacker and Points Per Game 20.7 105 30.3 91 9/3 at UCLA (24) 17-45 L L
returnee Brock Horne (49 total tackles, two sacks). Yards Per Point 15.8 101 13.8 79 9/10 E KENTUCKY (-7.5) 57-59 L L
Plays Per Game 67 100 9/17 MARSHALL (17.5) 34-31 W W
OUTLOOK
Time of Possession 29:13 79 9/24 at Mississippi St (31) 14-45 L T
Bowling Green won six games last season, but it’s hard to see it get back to
3rd Down Conv. % 32.1% 113 45.4% 115 10/1 at Akron (-8.5) 31-28 W L
bowl eligibility this year. The nonconference slate has just one winnable game
against Eastern Illinois, as the Falcons have to visit Liberty, Michigan (at the Total Yards Per Game 326.6 108 417.8 96 10/8 BUFFALO (2) 7-38 L L
Big House) and Georgia Tech. It’s hard to find MAC wins with Ohio, Miami Yards Per Play 4.9 101 5.7 83 10/15 MIAMI OHIO (7) 17-13 W W
(OH), Buffalo and Toledo on the schedule. They would need to sweep the other Rush Attempts Per Game 30.7 114 10/22 at C Michigan (6) 34-18 W W
also-rans (Akron, Ball State, Kent State and Western Michigan) to get close to Rush Yards Per Game 95 123 173.3 90 11/2 W MICHIGAN (-5) 13-9 W L
their season win total. Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.1 123 4.5 90 11/9 KENT ST (3) 6-40 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 33.3 50 11/15 at Toledo (14.5) 42-35 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.2% 63 64.1% 106 11/22 at Ohio U (6) 14-38 L L

UNDER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 231.6 62 244.6 90 12/26 vs. New Mexico St (-3) 19-24 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7 79 7.6 86
Turnovers 1.8 111 1.8 20

118
 BUFFALO HEAD COACH: MAURICE LINGUIST (3RD)
BULLS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DJ MANGAS
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ROBERT WRIGHT

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #109 OF 133

The Bulls were an incredibly streaky team in 2021 as they started with three
straight losses to Maryland, Holy Cross and Coastal Caroline, then won five in
a row over Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), Bowling Green, Massachusetts and
eventual Mac champion Toledo (their highlight of the year). Then, they lost
POWER RATING 31.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #6 OF 12

three straight to Ohio, Central Michigan and Kent State (the low point) before
beating Akron to get bowl-eligible at 6-6 and beat Georgia Southern 23-21 in 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
the Camelia Bowl.
9/2 at Wisconsin 25 54
SCHEDULE 33.36
OFFENSE
9/9 FORDHAM -11 23.5
STRENGTH #109 TOUGHEST OF 133
Quarterback Cole Snyder threw for 3,030 yards with 18 TDs and eight INTs, as
the Bulls averaged 28.5 points per game. He has a solid line in front of him led
by All-MAC left guard Gabe Wallace.
9/16 LIBERTY
9/23 at LA Lafayette
2
10.5
36.5
38.5
FIELD 3.3 / 0
9/30 at Akron -6 24
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
The running game is in strong hands (and legs) with Ron Cook Jr. and Mike
Washington both returning after running for 600 or more yards last season 10/7 C MICHIGAN -2 32.5
and being part of the passing game. 10/14 BOWLING GREEN -7 28
The rest of the receiving corps needs to step up as Justin Marshall and Quian 10/21 at Kent St -7.5 20.5
2023 ODDS
Williams (both caught more than 60 passes last year) ran out of eligibility, 10/31 at Toledo 13.5 42
and Jamari Gassett left in the transfer portal for Florida A&M. Fifth-year
+650
11/7 OHIO U 1.5 36.5 ODDS TO WIN
senior Marlyn Johnson is the top returnee with just 17 catches for 133 yards MAC
last season. A promising red-shirt freshman is Nik McMillian, who caught four 11/15 at Miami Ohio 6 34.5
passes for 134 in the Spring Game. 11/21 E MICHIGAN -2.5 32

DEFENSE
Buffalo’s “stop unit” was anything but in 2021 and needs to improve after
ODDS TO WIN
allowing 26.7 points per game. The Bulls allowed just seven points to lowly RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 QB 5000-1
10
NATIONAL

STARTERS
Bowling Green and UMass but were pretty much lit up by everyone else to keep CHAMPIONSHIP
the team from reaching its potential. DEFENSE: 5

Linebackers Shaun Dolac (147 total tackles, 4.5 sacks) and safety Marcus
Fuqua (seven INTs) were first-team All-MAC, so they have something to build
around. The defensive front also has some solid returnees—Daymond Williams
(4.5 sacks) and Jaylon Bass, George Wolo and CJ Bazile played all 13 games
last year. The other positions need help with their depth, though coach Maurice
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 7-6
Linquist was very active in the transfer portal this offseason. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 28.3 56 25.8 54 9/3 at Maryland (24) 10-31 L W
OUTLOOK 13.1 24 15.1 44
Yards Per Point 9/10 HOLY CROSS (-6) 31-37 L L
It’s not often I would recommend Over season win totals for the top three
Plays Per Game 80.4 2 9/17 at Coastal Carolina (12.5) 26-38 L W
teams in a division, but there is a clear divide between the haves and have-
nots in the MAC East as Buffalo should contend with Ohio and Miami (OH) Time of Possession 35:00 2 9/24 at E Michigan (6.5) 50-31 W W
for the division crown. I have the Bulls as a cut below the other two, though 3rd Down Conv. % 38.5% 67 35.0% 28 10/1 MIAMI OHIO (-3) 24-20 W W
they do get to host Ohio on November 7 before having to visit Miami (OH) Total Yards Per Game 370.3 75 390.4 70 10/8 at Bowling Green (-2) 38-7 W W
the following week. They might need to do better than 1-3 from a tough Yards Per Play 4.6 113 5.8 103 10/15 at Massachusetts (-17) 34-7 W W
nonconference schedule of Wisconsin, Fordham, Liberty and Louisiana, but Rush Attempts Per Game 42.2 16 10/22 TOLEDO (7) 34-27 W W
they should be able to rack up enough wins against the MAC also-rans to get Rush Yards Per Game 140.8 78 164.5 81 11/1 at Ohio U (-2.5) 24-45 L L
Over their number if they can just pull an upset along the way.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.3 109 5 114 11/9 at C Michigan (2.5) 27-31 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 35.8 33 11/26 KENT ST (-4.5) 27-30 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 58.3% 88 57.3% 24 12/2 AKRON (-12.5) 23-22 W L

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 229.5 64 225.9 58 12/27 vs. Ga Southern (6) 23-21 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.4 104 7 52
Turnovers 1.5 72 2.2 4

119
 CENTRAL MICHIGAN HEAD COACH: JIM MCELWAIN (5TH)
CHIPPEWAS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: PAUL PETRINO
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ROBB AKEY

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #104 OF 133

Just like Northern Illinois, who Central Michigan tied for the MAC West Division
title in 2021 but lost the tiebreaker, 2022 was a disappointment as the
Chippewas fell to 4-8 (3-5 in the MAC West) to fall short of bowl eligibility a
season after beating Washington State in the Sun Bowl. Coach Jim McElwain
POWER RATING 32.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #4 OF 12

(24-21 at CMU) is well-respected and expected to get the program back in MAC
contention, but a lack of overall talent at the skill positions makes that look 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
unlikely this season.
9/1 at Michigan St 15.5 46
SCHEDULE 35.37
OFFENSE
9/9 NEW HAMPSHIRE -14.5 21.5
STRENGTH #90 TOUGHEST OF 133
Central Michigan lost all-MAC wide receivers Kalil Pimpleton and JaCorey
Sullivan after the 2021 season and are still trying to recover. Dallas Dixon,
who was expected to step in, had his season cut short by injuries and only
9/16 at Notre Dame 28.5 58.5
FIELD 3.2 / 0.2
caught six passes for 96 yards in two games. The leading returning receiver
9/23 at S Alabama
9/30 E MICHIGAN
14.5
-3.5
44
32
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
this season is Jalen McGaughy, with just 20 catches for 313 yards and two TDs.
10/7 at Buffalo 2 31.5
It didn’t help that the QBs battling for the starting job are dual-threats, but
2023 ODDS
10/14 AKRON -12 24
their regarded more as runners than passers: Jase Bauer (435 passing yards,
312 rushing yards last season) and Bert Emanuel Jr. (eight passing yards and 10/21 at Ball St 0 30.5
no TD passes, 496 rushing yards with seven TDs). Marion Lukes is the leading 10/31 N ILLINOIS -4 31.5
returning rusher with just 323 yards last year and three TDs. ODDS TO WIN
11/7 at W Michigan -4 26
11/15 at Ohio U 5.5 36.5
18-1 MAC
Reason for hope comes from a strong offensive line led by third-team all-MAC
guard Deiyantei Powell-Woods, plus both tackles return in Davis Heinzen and 11/24 TOLEDO 6.5 42
Brayden Swartout.

DEFENSE
ODDS TO WIN
If the Chippewas get back to bowl eligibility and/or contend for the MAC title. RETURNING OFFENSE: 4 10000-1
13
NATIONAL

STARTERS
It’ll probably be because of their defense. CMU was 69th against the run CHAMPIONSHIP
and 57th against the pass, though it has to do better with takeaways, as the DEFENSE: 9
Chippewas only had six fumble recoveries and four INTs all last season.

The top defensive players are two–time, first-team All-MAC defensive tackle
Robi Stuart and first-team All-MAC cornerback Donte Kent while safety
De’Javion Stepney was third-team. Leading tackler Kyle Moretti (94 total
tackles, three sacks) also returns at linebacker, as do the No. 2 and No. 3
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 6-6
tacklers in safety Trey Jones and LB Justin Whiteside, so there is a solid core for STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
McElwain to work around. Points Per Game 23.3 88 30.7 94 9/1 at Oklahoma St (20.5) 44-58 L W
Yards Per Point 15.2 85 12.8 110 9/10 S ALABAMA (-6) 24-38 L L
OUTLOOK
Plays Per Game 71.1 58 9/17 BUCKNELL (-40.5) 41-0 W W
Central Michigan has a tough nonconference schedule, including opening as a
14.5-point underdog at Michigan State on Friday, September 1. The Chippewas Time of Possession 28:49 90 9/24 at Penn St (28) 14-33 L W
also have a September 16 date at Notre Dame. However, they had a relatively 3rd Down Conv. % 34.4% 102 35.2% 33 10/1 at Toledo (6.5) 17-38 L L
soft early MAC schedule, so if whoever emerges at QB can improve during Total Yards Per Game 353 93 392.4 73 10/8 BALL ST (-7.5) 16-17 L L
the season and the offense can do its share along with the defense, CMU Yards Per Play 5 96 5.2 44 10/15 at Akron (-12) 28-21 W L
could already be above their win total of 5.5 by the time it closes the regular Rush Attempts Per Game 36.2 65 10/22 BOWLING GREEN (-6) 18-34 L L
season at MAC division favorites Ohio and Toledo on November 15 and 24, Rush Yards Per Game 148.9 65 161.3 74 11/2 at N Illinois (4.5) 35-22 W W
respectively.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.1 68 4 48 11/9 BUFFALO (-2.5) 31-27 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.2 61 11/16 W MICHIGAN (-10) 10-12 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 57.3% 94 60.7% 68 11/25 at E Michigan (1) 19-38 L L

OVER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 204.1 96 231.1 68
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.3 107 7.2 70
Turnovers 2.4 128 0.7 129

120
 EASTERN MICHIGAN HEAD COACH: CHRIS CREIGHTON (10TH)
EAGLES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CHRIS CREIGHTON
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TAVER JOHNSON / BEN NEEDHAM

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #106 OF 133

Eastern Michigan had a very successful 8-4 regular season in 2022 and went
5-3 to tie for first in the MAC West, but they lost the tiebreaker due to their
27-24 loss against Toledo. The Eagles went on to beat San Jose State 41-27 in
the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Respected coach Chris Creighton has plenty to
POWER RATING 32 CONFERENCE RANK: #5 OF 12

continue that momentum with 11 returning starters, though QB isn’t one of the
positions. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
9/1 HOWARD -23.5 10.5
SCHEDULE 29.32
Troy transfer Taylor Powell threw for 2,111 yards last season and 16 TDs, but
he’s gone. Austin Smith is expected to take over after starting four games last 9/9 at Minnesota 21 50.5
STRENGTH #130 TOUGHEST OF 133
year and coming off the bench to upset Arizona State. Smith threw for 774
yards and added 255 more rushing yards, as he’s more of a dual threat than
Powell and could actually improve the offense.
9/16 MASSACHUSETTS
9/23 at Jacksonville St
-16.5
2.5
17.5
32.5
FIELD 1.7 / 0.3
9/30 at C Michigan 3.5 32.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
No matter who is under center, the Eagles’ offense will likely be led by former
Iowa RB Samson Evans, who carried the load for 1,166 yards and 15 TDs 10/7 BALL ST -3 30.5
last season, with Jaylon Jackson (13 receptions) expected to be used as the
10/14 KENT ST -13.5 20.5
“change-of-pace” back. The right side of the line returns with G Alex Howie and
T Brian Dooley. 10/21 at N Illinois 1 31.5
2023 ODDS
The top returning receiver is third-team All-MAC WR Tanner Knue (45 catches, 10/28 W MICHIGAN -8 26

+800
632 yards, nine TDs), but EMU needs to replace graduated Hassan Beydoun 11/8 at Toledo 12.5 42 ODDS TO WIN
and Dylan Drummond (82 combined receptions for nearly 1,000 yards) MAC
11/14 AKRON -10 24
Former Indiana WR Javon Swinton could fill one of those roles, while WR
Hamze El-Zayat is a graduate student at EMU who was a three-year starter at 11/21 at Buffalo 2.5 31.5
Fordham and caught a 58-yard pass from Smith in the Spring Game.

DEFENSE
The Eagles’ defense allowed 28.5 points per game last season and caused ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 4 5000-1
11
the offense to have to win a lot of shootouts, but the defense helped by NATIONAL
leading the MAC with 13 INTs (paced by three by rover Joshua Scott). Punter
Mitchell Tomasek also helped the D by leading the conference with a 44.1-yard STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

average.

EMU suffered a huge loss with the graduation of Jose Ramirez, last year’s MAC
Defensive Player of the Year. Ramirez had a school-record 12 sacks (including
a single-game, school-record four vs. Western Michigan) on the way to being 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in April. No one returns with more than OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-4, ATS: 7-5, O/U: 7-6
1.5 sacks. DT Peyton Price is the best returning defensive lineman. Chase STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Kline (team-leading 91 total tackles) and Joe Sparacio (89 tackles) lead the Points Per Game 28.8 53 28 66 9/2 E KENTUCKY (-11) 42-34 W L
linebacking corps, while the ball-hawking secondary is very deep.
Yards Per Point 12.6 16 13.1 101 9/10 at La Lafayette (11) 21-49 L L
OUTLOOK Plays Per Game 71.5 54 9/17 at Arizona St (20.5) 30-21 W W
Eastern Michigan has a chance to get off to a great start with a soft Time of Possession 31:32 30 9/24 BUFFALO (-6.5) 31-50 L L
nonconference schedule. The toughest test is the Big Ten’s Minnesota. But don’t 3rd Down Conv. % 44.6% 28 39.6% 74 10/1 MASSACHUSETTS (-19.5) 20-13 W L
forget, the Eagles shocked the Pac-12’s Arizona State last September, which Total Yards Per Game 363.2 82 367.6 43 10/8 at W Michigan (4.5) 45-23 W W
helped lead to Herman Edwards losing his job. Their toughest MAC road games
are probably not until November at Toledo and at Buffalo, but by then, they Yards Per Play 5.1 86 5.4 61 10/15 N ILLINOIS (-3.5) 10-39 L L
might already be over their win total of 7. And if Smith continues to develop, Rush Attempts Per Game 38.8 40 10/22 at Ball St (2.5) 20-16 W W
they could be playing for the MAC East title in Toledo. Rush Yards Per Game 143.2 71 157.5 70 10/29 TOLEDO (4) 24-27 L W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.7 89 4.3 76 11/8 at Akron (-6) 34-28 W T
Pass Attempts Per Game 30.2 84 11/16 at Kent St (7.5) 31-24 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.6% 56 54.9% 9 11/25 C MICHIGAN (-1) 38-19 W W

OVER 7
Passing Yards Per Game 220 78 210.1 34 12/20 vs. San Jose St (4) 41-27 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.3 65 7.2 71
Turnovers 1.4 59 1.5 51

121
 KENT STATE HEAD COACH: KENNI BURNS (1ST)
GOLDEN FLASHES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MATT JOHNSON
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DAVID DUGGAN

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #132 OF 133

Kent went 5-7 last season, falling just short of bowl eligibility, so there was
some talent. However, all four first-team All-MAC players left via the transfer
portal, as well as three second-teamers and two third-teamers. We haven’t
seen an exodus like this since, well, Exodus. And then, head coach Sean Lewis
POWER RATING 20.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #12 OF 12

left to be Deion Sanders’ offensive coordinator at Colorado. In fact, our VSiN

colleague Steve Makinen points out that the Golden Flashes have the fewest 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
returning starters in the nation at four, including none on offense.
SCHEDULE 32.83
8/31 at UCF 32.5 50
OFFENSE
9/9 at Arkansas 34 52
STRENGTH #115 TOUGHEST OF 133
Quarterback Collin Schlee threw for 2,109 yards last season with 13 TDs and
just five INTs, but he left for UCLA. Tommy Ulatowski appeared to be the front-
runner after spring practice, but the competition reportedly remains open.
9/16 C CONN ST -22 2
FIELD 3.4 / -0.3
9/23 at Fresno St 24.5 42.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
One bright spot for Kent State late season was the running game, which 9/30 MIAMI OHIO 10.5 34.5
averaged 202.1 rushing yards per game (No. 22 in the nation, rare for a 10/7 at Ohio U 18 36.5
team with a losing record). Marquez Cooper led the team with 1,326 rushing
yards and 13 TDs, but since we know there are no returning starters, we know
he transferred (to MAC rival Ball State). There is hope, however, with Xavier
10/14 at E Michigan
10/21 BUFFALO
13.5
7.5
32
31.5
2023 ODDS
Williams (1,431 career yards) returning after missing last season, plus Kansas at Akron 5.5 24
transfer Ky Thomas (826 yards, six TDs in 2021 at Minnesota). ODDS TO WIN
11/8 BOWLING GREEN 3.5 28
150-1 MAC
The receiving cupboard is even more empty as five pass-catchers left the 11/18 at Ball St 12.5 30.5
program, led by All-MAC WR Devontez Walker (North Carolina). The top 11/25 N ILLINOIS 7.5 31.5
returnee is Trell Harris (13 catches, 136 yards, one TD), with first-year coach
Kenni Burns trying to find more replacements.
ODDS TO WIN
DEFENSE RETURNING OFFENSE: 0 5000-1
4
NATIONAL

STARTERS
The defense, which was middle-of-the-road last season, allowed 29 points per CHAMPIONSHIP
game (ranked No. 89) but was just as decimated by the transfer portal. DEFENSE: 4

At least the defense has more players that played supporting roles or earned
starts later last season, led by defensive tackle CJ West (4.5 tackles for loss),
linebackers Khalib Johns (four sacks) and Khali Saunders (1.5 sacks), plus
cornerback DJ Miller Jr. (four passes defended). 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 4-8
OUTLOOK STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
First things first, remember that we’re required to make an Over/Under season Points Per Game 25.3 75 30.7 94 9/3 at Washington (23.5) 20-45 L L
win total with each team preview, but that doesn’t mean we’re actually betting 16 108 14.5 59
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Oklahoma (33) 3-33 L W
it. There’s plenty of other betting action to be had this college football season
Plays Per Game 75.1 24 9/17 LIU POST (-40) 63-10 W W
to give any thought on whether Kent State goes Over or Under the insanely low
betting total of 2.5 wins. Having said that, we still have to think the Under is Time of Possession 25:57 129 9/24 at Georgia (45) 22-39 L W
more likely to hit with the program basically starting from scratch. If you think 3rd Down Conv. % 39.3% 53 40.2% 80 10/1 OHIO U (-12.5) 31-24 W L
you see a win or two on Kent’s schedule, you’re probably better off betting the Total Yards Per Game 405.4 45 444.6 112 10/8 at Miami Ohio (-5.5) 24-27 L L
single-game moneyline(s). Yards Per Play 5.4 63 5.7 88 10/15 at Toledo (7) 31-52 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 42.6 15 10/22 AKRON (-16) 33-27 W L
Rush Yards Per Game 189.1 31 164.5 80 11/1 BALL ST (-7) 20-27 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.4 53 3.9 47 11/9 at Bowling Green (-3) 40-6 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 30.5 78 11/16 E MICHIGAN (-7.5) 24-31 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 54.5% 113 70.5% 130 11/26 at Buffalo (4.5) 30-27 W W

UNDER 2.5
Passing Yards Per Game 216.3 85 280.2 122
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.1 75 8.2 115
Turnovers 1.2 39 1.2 94

122
 MIAMI (OH) HEAD COACH: CHUCK MARTIN (10TH)
REDHAWKS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: PATRICK WELSH
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BILL BRECHIN

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #97 OF 133

Miami had high hopes heading into last season with QB Brett Gabbert, the conference’s
Freshman of the Year in 2019, expected to lead the RedHawks back to MAC prominence.
However, he suffered an upper-body injury in the season-opening loss to Kentucky
and only played in three more games before being shelved for the season. Still, there
POWER RATING 34.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #3 OF 12

was enough talent that the team, led by the defense, went 6-6 and earned a bid to the
Bahamas Bowl, which it lost 24-20 to UAB. With a healthy Gabbert, the RedHawks should
challenge Ohio for the MAC East title.
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/1 at Miami FL 17.5 49.5
SCHEDULE 29.14
Without Gabbert, the younger brother of NFL QB Blaine Gabbert, Miami’s offense
9/9 at Massachusetts -15 17.5
STRENGTH #131 TOUGHEST OF 133
finished 11th in the MAC in scoring. He only threw four TDs last season with no

3.1 / -0.3
interceptions, so the hope is he returns to the form that saw him throw for 2,648 yards in
2021 with 26 TDs and just six INTs.
9/16 at Cincinnati 12.5 43.5
FIELD
Backup QB Aveon Smith led the RedHawks with 533 rushing yards and six rushing TDs last
9/23 DELAWARE ST
9/30 at Kent St
-40.5
-10.5
-3
20.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
year, but second-leading rusher Keyon Mozee (471 yards, two TDs) could see more of a role.
Kevin Davis (19 catches) gives Gabbert an option out of the backfield. Coach Chuck Martin 10/7 BOWLING GREEN -10 28
also picked up former South Carolina RB Rashad Amos in the transfer portal.
2023 ODDS
10/14 at W Michigan -5.5 26
The receiving corps also has to work in new faces, with junior TE Jack Coldiron (24 10/21 TOLEDO 4.5 42
catches, 286 yards) being the top returning target. We’ll see who steps up from the
10/28 at Ohio U 4 36.5
newcomers. The top options look like former Notre Dame WR Joe Wilkins Jr. (two TDs in

+850
limited play, especially shortened by injury in 2021) and Southeastern Louisiana slot 11/8 AKRON -14 24 ODDS TO WIN
receiver Gage Larvadain (96 catches, 1,252 yards, seven TDs). MAC
11/15 BUFFALO -6 31.5
DEFENSE 11/25 at Ball St -1.5 30.5
The defense stepped up to fill in for the loss of the RedHawks’ star QB, allowing a MAC-
low 22.6 points per game to keep Miami in nearly every game.

The RedHawks will have to replace leading tackler Ryan McWood, who they lost to ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 5000-1
16
graduation after seven years in the program. But Matthew Salopek (124 total tackles) NATIONAL
and Dominic Nardone are expected to fill that role in the linebacking unit, with defensive
ends Corey Suttle (six sacks) and Caiden Woullard (four sacks) adding experience on the
defensive front. They lost safety John Saunders Jr. in the transfer portal to Mississippi,
STARTERS DEFENSE: 9
CHAMPIONSHIP

but Jacquez Warren (two INTs) and Ambe’ Caldwell return, while Miami will need their
young cornerbacks to be quick studies.

OUTLOOK
A lot of MAC schools have tough opening games playing Big Ten teams in their 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
nonconference season lid-lifters, but Miami (OH) might have the toughest of all with OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 3-10
a game against its namesake, Miami (FL). DraftKings has the Hurricanes listed as STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
17.5-point home favorites. The RedHawks also face a tough Cincinnati program but Points Per Game 19.3 115 23.3 36 9/3 at Kentucky (15) 13-37 L L
should pick up wins over Massachusetts and Delaware State before the MAC season Yards Per Point 15.4 90 16.5 21 9/10 ROBERT MORRIS (-30.5) 31-14 W L
begins. Conference wins should come against Kent State, Bowling Green Akron and Ball
Plays Per Game 65.8 112 9/17 vs. Cincinnati (24) 17-38 L W
State. Miami will get Toledo and Buffalo at home, so if they can pick up a win in one
of those games, they should be able to get Over even if they’re unable to win at Ohio Time of Possession 29:49 67 9/24 at Northwestern (8) 17-14 W W
on October 28 in a game that should decide the MAC East. If you think they win that 3rd Down Conv. % 29.2% 123 41.6% 92 10/1 at Buffalo (3) 20-24 L L
game, you might want to grab Miami now at +850 to win the MAC, as they’d probably be Total Yards Per Game 298.1 120 386.1 66 10/8 KENT ST (5.5) 27-24 W W
heading to the conference championship game.
Yards Per Play 4.5 115 5.3 54 10/15 at Bowling Green (-7) 13-17 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 36.7 63 10/22 W MICHIGAN (-7) 10-16 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 134.8 86 144.1 50 10/29 at Akron (-9) 27-9 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.7 90 4.1 56 11/8 OHIO U (2.5) 21-37 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 26 117 11/16 at N Illinois (1) 29-23 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 53.9% 116 61.3% 79 11/22 BALL ST (-2.5) 18-17 W L

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 163.3 120 242 85 12/16 vs. UAB (11) 20-24 L W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.3 112 7 47
Turnovers 0.7 3 1.7 31

123
 NORTHERN ILLINOIS HEAD COACH: THOMAS HAMMOCK (5TH)
HUSKIES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ERIC EIDSNESS
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: NICK BENEDETTO

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #110 OF 133

Northern Illinois has been among the MAC’s most dominant programs since the turn of
the century and especially in the last dozen years, with five conference championships in
2011, 2012, 2014, 2018 and 2021. They have also gone to bowls games an even dozen
times since 2004, including the 2013 Orange Bowl after the 2012 season when they
POWER RATING 31.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #7 OF 12
were No. 15 in the BCS Standings at the end of the regular season. The program stayed
competitive for the rest of the last decade until the pandemic shortened 2020 season
when the Huskies went 0-6. They then bounced back with the shocking 2021 MAC title 2023 SCHEDULE
before taking a step back in an injury-riddled last year at 3-9. Which NIU team do we get DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
this season?
9/2 at Boston College 9.5 38.5
SCHEDULE 32.97
OFFENSE
9/9 S ILLINOIS -2.5 30.5
STRENGTH #114 TOUGHEST OF 133
The Huskies averaged only 182.7 yards passing in 2022 (ranked 114th in the nation). Of
FIELD 1.8 / 0
course, it was a devastating loss when former Michigan State QB Rocky Lombardi, who 9/16 at Nebraska 16.5 46
led NIU to the 2021 MAC title, suffered a knee injury in the third game of the season. He
was off to a pretty good start, completing 66.7% of his passes for 645 yards and five TDs
with just one INT. His replacements threw just 12 TDs the rest of the season with 13 INTs.
9/23 TULSA -1.5 31.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
9/30 at Toledo 13.5 42
Lombardi’s return alone (he threw for 2,597 yards in 2021 with 15 TD passes and added 10/7 at Akron -6 24
473 rushing yards and another nine TDs) would give NIU fans hope for a return to the
2023 ODDS
top of the MAC, but the Huskies also get back 2021 second-team All-MAC WR Trayvon 10/14 OHIO U 3 36.5
Rudolph (51 receptions, 892 yards, 17.5 yards-per-catch average, seven TDs), who missed 10/21 E MICHIGAN -1 32
all of last season. Leading receiver Kacper Rutkiewicz (26 catches, 432 yards, six TDs)
also returns, and the Huskies added 6-4 WR Davis Patterson, who had 42 catches for 661 10/31 at C Michigan 4 32.5
yards and five TDs the last two years at James Madison and Notre Dame College (OH). ODDS TO WIN
11/7 BALL ST -2.5 30.5
More good news: The running game, which was the main reason for the 2021 MAC title, 11/14 W MICHIGAN -7.5 26
16-1 MAC
still averaged 190.4 yards per game last year (No. 34 in the nation), even without the
threat of Lombardi. In addition, the entire starting line is back in addition to RB Antario 11/25 at Kent St -7.5 20.5
Brown (680 rushing yards, seven TDs).

DEFENSE
During NIU’s success early this century, the defense was often the team’s calling card, ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 5000-1
15
but that wasn’t the case in the title run of 2021 when the offense had a lot of shootouts, NATIONAL
and it was worse last season.

The defense was strong up front and was No. 52 in rush defense, but ranked No. 100
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

against the pass and allowed a whopping 32.8 points per game (No. 114). Defensive
tackles Devonte O’Malley and James Ester earned all-MAC recognition for clogging the
middle, while O’Malley also tied for the team lead with 5.5 sacks.

Two of the top four tacklers from last season return in safety CJ Brown and linebacker
Jaden Dolphin. No. 2 tackler Daveren Rayner transferred to Kentucky, and CB Eric Rogers
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
left for Rutgers, but coach Thomas Hammock added some transfers to fill some holes, OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-9, ATS: 4-8, O/U: 9-3
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
including LBs Keshon Artis (Virginia Tech) and Tyler Jackson (Lamar), among others.
Points Per Game 26.6 68 33.3 110 9/1 E ILLINOIS (-35) 34-27 W L
OUTLOOK Yards Per Point 14 57 11.8 127 9/10 at Tulsa (6.5) 35-38 L W
NIU coach Hammock has already shown the ability to rebuild quickly after a poor 69.3 79
Plays Per Game 9/17 VANDERBILT (-2.5) 28-38 L L
season, and that should happen again as long as the Huskies can avoid major injuries,
unlike last year. NIU opens as 10.5-point road underdogs at Boston College in the season Time of Possession 30:51 43 9/24 at Kentucky (27) 23-31 L W
opener and then has other nonconference games against Southern Illinois, Nebraska and 3rd Down Conv. % 38.1% 73 42.4% 99 10/1 at Ball St (-3.5) 38-44 L L
Tulsa. A 2-2 start would have them well on the way to winning above their low total of
Total Yards Per Game 372.5 73 391.6 71 10/8 TOLEDO (6.5) 32-52 L L
5.5, but a 1-3 start wouldn’t be a death knell as they have several winnable games on
the MAC schedule with Akron, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Ball State, Western Yards Per Play 5.4 64 5.6 77 10/15 at E Michigan (3.5) 39-10 W W
Michigan and Kent State, though they do get a tough draw with their MAC opener on the Rush Attempts Per Game 40.4 25 10/22 at Ohio U (-2.5) 17-24 L L
road at conference favorite Toledo.
Rush Yards Per Game 190.7 29 140.9 44 11/2 C MICHIGAN (-4.5) 22-35 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.7 41 3.7 34 11/9 at W Michigan (0) 24-21 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 27.8 101 11/16 MIAMI OHIO (-1) 23-29 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 55.9% 106 61.0% 76 11/26 AKRON (-9.5) 12-44 L L

OVER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 181.8 114 250.7 94
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.5 99 8.5 122
Turnovers 1.5 65 1.5 46

124
 OHIO HEAD COACH: TIM ALBIN (2ND)
BOBCATS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SCOTT ISPHORDING / ALLEN RUDOLPH
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SPENCE NOWINSKY

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #90 OF 133

The second year of head coach Tim Albin’s tenure was a huge success. The
Bobcats won seven more games than in 2021, as they went 9-3 in the regular
season and 7-1 in the MAC to win the East Division. Ohio did lose the MAC
Championship Game to Toledo, 17-7, but then rallied for a 30-27 overtime win
POWER RATING 36.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #2 OF 12

over Wyoming in the Arizona Bowl. Expectations are high this year with 15
returning starters, assuming QB Kurtis Rourke is able to play after his ACL tear 2023 SCHEDULE
late last season. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
8/26 at San Diego St 5 39
SCHEDULE 29.94
OFFENSE
Rourke was the 2022 MAC Offensive Player of the Year as he was 244 for 9/2 LIU POST -37 2
STRENGTH #127 TOUGHEST OF 133
353 for 3,256 yards and 25 TDs with just four INTs in 11 games, while adding
another 249 rushing yards. Even if Rourke doesn’t return in time, the offense
should be in good hands with backup CJ Harris, who filled in admirably
9/9 at Fla Atlantic 6 39.5
FIELD 1.9 / 0
down the stretch, including winning Arizona Bowl MVP honors for leading the
9/16 IOWA ST 10 48.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
comeback victory. 9/23 at Bowling Green -6.5 28
10/7 KENT ST -18 20.5
Leading rusher Sieh Bangura (1,078 yards, 13 rushing TDs) also returns after
2023 ODDS
earning MAC Freshman of the Year Honors. In addition to taking pressure off 10/14 at N Illinois -3 31.5
the QBs with the ground game, Bangura also contributed to the air attack with 10/21 W MICHIGAN -12.5 26
27 catches for 226 yards and two more TDs. But the cupboard isn’t empty in
the receiving corps, led by senior WR Sam Wiglusz (74 receptions, 883 yards). 10/28 MIAMI OHIO -4 34.5

+280
Oft-injured WR Tyler Walton’s return adds more depth, as well as JUCO transfer 11/7 at Buffalo -1.5 31.5 ODDS TO WIN
Jailen Hammer. MAC
11/15 C MICHIGAN -5.5 32.5
The offensive line is a concern with no all-conference candidates, but the 11/24 at Akron -11 24
Bobcats have so much talent in the so-called skilled positions that they
should be able to overcome that as long as the line doesn’t commit too many
penalties.
ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 1000-1
15
DEFENSE NATIONAL
It’s hard to knock a defense after a team wins nine games and its division, but
the fact is the Ohio offense definitely carried the defense last season. The “stop STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

unit” allowed 28.3 points per game and a MAC-worst 6.2 yards per play, so it
was up to the offense to win several shootouts.

However, the defense did come up with some stops when needed, so there is
hope for improvement. The defensive line is a weakness, with just DE Vonnie 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
Watkins returning. The strength of the D is probably the linebacking corps, led OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 10-4, ATS: 9-4, O/U: 8-6
by Keye Thompson and Bryce Houston, while the secondary has the right to STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
improve and adds Walter Reynolds, who had five INTs for Holy Cross last year. Points Per Game 29.7 46 26.5 57 9/3 FLA ATLANTIC (6) 41-38 W W
Yards Per Point 13.5 38 15.5 32 9/10 at Penn St (28) 10-46 L L
OUTLOOK
As the defending division champs, Ohio should definitely battle Miami (OH) for Plays Per Game 68.9 84 9/17 at Iowa St (20) 10-43 L L
MAC East supremacy. They have a tough road opener on Aug. 26 as 3.5-point Time of Possession 31:48 25 9/24 FORDHAM (-16.5) 59-52 W L
underdogs at San Diego State and also face Florida Atlantic (which Ohio beat 3rd Down Conv. % 40.0% 48 38.8% 63 10/1 at Kent St (12.5) 24-31 L W
41-38 last year) and Iowa State (which pummeled Ohio 43-10 last year), but if Total Yards Per Game 400.9 49 410.5 87 10/8 AKRON (-9.5) 55-34 W W
they can get just one win from those three games, they’ll be in great shape to
go Over their win total of 7.5 as they get their biggest hurdle to the East tiel, Yards Per Play 5.8 43 5.7 86 10/15 at W Michigan (1.5) 33-14 W W
Miami (OH), at home on October 28 and don’t have to face MAC West favorite Rush Attempts Per Game 35.4 77 10/22 N ILLINOIS (2.5) 24-17 W W
Toledo, at least not before the MAC title game again. Rush Yards Per Game 142.8 72 141.2 45 11/1 BUFFALO (2.5) 45-24 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4 72 4.3 79 11/8 at Miami Ohio (-2.5) 37-21 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 31.8 65 11/15 at Ball St (-3.5) 32-18 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 63.0% 39 64.3% 109 11/22 BOWLING GREEN (-6) 38-14 W W

OVER 7.5
Passing Yards Per Game 258.2 41 269.3 109 12/3 vs. Toledo (3.5) 7-17 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.1 29 7.4 74 12/30 vs. Wyoming (-3) 30-27 W T
Turnovers 0.8 12 1.8 14

125
 TOLEDO HEAD COACH: JASON CANDLE (8TH)
ROCKETS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MIKE HALLETT / ROBERT WEINER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: VINCE KEHRES / ROSS WATSON

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #68 OF 133

DraftKings has Toledo as the +170 favorite to repeat as MAC champions after
going 7-5 last year (5-3 in the MAC West) during the regular season, then
defeating Ohio 17-7 in the conference title game and beating Liberty 21-19
in the Liberty Bowl. In seven years under coach Jason Candle, Toledo is 54-32
POWER RATING 42 CONFERENCE RANK: #1 OF 12

(62.8%) and looks poised to continue that success with 16 returning starters.
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
The Rockets averaged 31.3 points per game (No. 45 in the nation) last season, 9/2 at Illinois 11 50
SCHEDULE 29.73
led by second-team All-MAC QB DeQuan Finn (2,269 passing yards, 23 TD
9/9 TEXAS SOUTHERN -35.5 10
STRENGTH #128 TOUGHEST OF 133
passes, 632 rushing yards, nine rushing TDs), who is just a junior. He is
protected by a strong offensive line led by All-MAC first-teamer Nick Rosi with
other returning starters in center Devan Rogers and guards Vinny Sciury and
9/16 SAN JOSE ST -10.5 34.5
FIELD 2.9 / 0
Kendall Major, along with incoming transfers Rod Orr (Florida State) and David
9/23 W MICHIGAN
9/30 N ILLINOIS
-19
-13.5
26
31.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Nwaogwugwu (Rutgers).
10/7 at Massachusetts -22.5 17.5
There are also plenty of other returning skill position players, with leading
2023 ODDS
10/14 at Ball St -9 30.5
rusher Jacquez Stuart (770 yards, four TDs) and leading receiver Jerjuan
Newton (53 catches, 830 yards, nine TDs), who was second-team all-MAC. 10/21 at Miami Ohio -4.5 34.5
Senior Devin Maddox added 39 receptions and has more than 100 in his career 10/31 BUFFALO -13.5 31.5
at Toledo.
+170
11/8 E MICHIGAN -12.5 32 ODDS TO WIN
MAC
DEFENSE 11/14 at Bowling Green -12 28
The defense also did its part last year, allowing 25.1 points per game. That 11/24 at C Michigan -6.5 32.5
doesn’t sound too great (Remember, that stat is skewed by the 77 points the
Rockets allowed to Ohio State.), but it was good enough for a MAC defense
when the offense averages more than 30 points per game.
ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 1000-1
16
NATIONAL

STARTERS
Four first-team all-MAC defenders return in linebacker Dallas Gant (116 total CHAMPIONSHIP
tackles), cornerback Quinyon Mitchell (led the nation with 25 passes defended) DEFENSE: 8
and safeties Nate Bauer (61 total tackles, two INTs) and Maxen Hook (82 total
tackles, two INTs).

Senior Terrance Taylor wasn’t all-MAC last season, as he played just three
games due to injuries, but he’s expected to lead the pass rush along with
Adrian Woliver (4.5 sacks).
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-5, ATS: 5-9, O/U: 6-8
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 30.8 38 27 61 9/1 LIU POST (-47.5) 37-0 W L
Being the defending conference champion with heightened expectations comes 13 20 12.7 113
Yards Per Point 9/10 MASSACHUSETTS (-28) 55-10 W W
an inflated Over/Under season win total at nine games. Don’t forget the
Plays Per Game 74.7 28 9/17 at Ohio St (31) 21-77 L L
Rockets only went 7-5 last season despite winning the MAC, and they’re going
to have a target on their back. They also open the season as 11-point road dogs Time of Possession 29:54 65 9/24 at San Diego St (-3) 14-17 L L
at Illinois, and it’s going to be tough to get to the 10 wins needed to win the 3rd Down Conv. % 42.1% 36 34.8% 26 10/1 C MICHIGAN (-6.5) 38-17 W W
Over bet. Eight wins looks more likely (or nine for the push). Total Yards Per Game 399.5 51 342.7 28 10/8 at N Illinois (-6.5) 52-32 W W
Yards Per Play 5.3 68 4.8 21 10/15 KENT ST (-7) 52-31 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 41.2 19 10/22 at Buffalo (-7) 27-34 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 173.9 49 150.8 60 10/29 at E Michigan (-4) 27-24 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.2 65 4 51 11/8 BALL ST (-14) 28-21 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 31.4 70 11/15 BOWLING GREEN (-14.5) 35-42 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 54.9% 111 54.6% 8 11/25 at W Michigan (-8.5) 14-20 L L

UNDER 9
Passing Yards Per Game 225.6 70 191.8 17 12/3 vs. Ohio U (-3.5) 17-7 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.2 70 6.2 10 12/20 vs. Liberty (-4) 21-19 W L
Turnovers 1.9 118 1.3 79

126
 WESTERN MICHIGAN HEAD COACH: LANCE TAYLOR (1ST)
BRONCOS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BILLY COSH
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: LOU ESPOSITO

BY DAVE TULEY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #123 OF 133

Coach Tim Lester suffered his first losing season at Western Michigan last year
at 5-7 (4-4 in the MAC West) and lost his job, replaced by Lance Taylor, who
has a big rebuilding job ahead of him. Help could be on the way with a QB
who transferred as a graduate student after spring drills were completed, but
POWER RATING 26 CONFERENCE RANK: #10 OF 12

the transfer portal also left a lot of holes.

2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
Western Michigan’s QB room got more crowded. Jack Salopek, Treyson 8/31 ST FRANCIS PA -6.5 22
SCHEDULE 36.93
Bourguet and Mareyohn Hrabowski, who all took snaps last year, were battling
9/9 at Syracuse 24 47
STRENGTH #80 TOUGHEST OF 133
for the starting job during spring drills. After that was over without first-year
FIELD 2.6 / -0.2
coach Lance Taylor announcing a decision, Hayden Wolff transferred from Old 9/16 at Iowa 28.5 51.5
Dominion after throwing for 2,908 yards last season and 18 TDs with six INTs. 9/23 at Toledo 19 42
9/30 BALL ST 2 30.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
The Broncos’ offense, which averaged only 19.0 points a game last season
(ranked No. 118 in the nation), is also trying to replace top RB Sean Tyler 10/7 at Mississippi St 27 50.5
(1,027 yards, seven TDs) and leading WR Corey Crooms (57 catches, 814 10/14 MIAMI OHIO 5.5 34.5
yards, five TDs), who both transferred to Minnesota. There’s also a battle at RB
between last year’s backup, Zahir Abdus-Salaam (just 100 yards, no TDs) and 10/21 at Ohio U 12.5 36.5
2023 ODDS
Virginia Tech transfer Keshawn King (6.0 average per carry last season). 10/28 at E Michigan 8 32
11/7 C MICHIGAN 4 32.5 ODDS TO WIN
Jehlani Galloway (28 catches, 344 yards) and Anthony Sambucci (20 catches,
11/14 at N Illinois 7.5 31.5
50-1 MAC
276 yards) are the leading returning receivers.
11/21 BOWLING GREEN -1 28
DEFENSE
The Western Michigan defense was better than the offense last season, but not
by a lot, as it still allowed 24.1 points per game. But it also has to overcome
ODDS TO WIN
some losses as Ryan Selig transferred to Minnesota; overall, four players who RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 10000-1
9
NATIONAL

STARTERS
earned All-MAC honors are gone. CHAMPIONSHIP
DEFENSE: 2
The leading returning tackler is cornerback Keni-H Lovely (48 tackles, one
sack, four INTs, one TD), who was third-team All-MAC. The only other returning
starter is defensive end Marshawn Kneeland (37 tackles, 1.5 sacks), but
several players saw significant time as backups that are expected to move into
starting roles. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 3-9
OUTLOOK STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
The Broncos open against St. Francis (PA), but then have a brutal rest of the Points Per Game 16.7 122 25.6 52 9/2 at Michigan St (21.5) 13-35 L L
nonconference schedule at Syracuse, Iowa and at Mississippi State. They also 17.8 117 14.3 67
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Ball St (-6.5) 29-30 L L
have to open MAC play on the road against defending conference champ and
Plays Per Game 72.1 49 9/17 PITTSBURGH (10.5) 13-34 L L
this year’s favorite, Toledo. Most of their other tougher games are also on the
road (at Ohio, Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois). It’s hard to find enough Time of Possession 31:18 33 9/24 at San Jose St (6.5) 6-34 L L
wins unless everything goes right in Lester’s first season. 3rd Down Conv. % 30.9% 118 32.2% 13 10/1 NEW HAMPSHIRE (-15) 44-7 W W
Total Yards Per Game 297 121 365.9 42 10/8 E MICHIGAN (-4.5) 23-45 L L
Yards Per Play 4.1 127 5.5 69 10/15 OHIO U (-1.5) 14-33 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 40 27 10/22 at Miami Ohio (7) 16-10 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 139.2 79 149.2 56 11/2 at Bowling Green (5) 9-13 L W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.5 100 4.3 69 11/9 N ILLINOIS (0) 21-24 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 28.4 98 11/16 at C Michigan (10) 12-10 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 49.4% 126 57.1% 21 11/25 TOLEDO (8.5) 20-14 W W

UNDER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 157.8 122 216.7 44
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.6 124 7.5 84
Turnovers 1.8 106 1.9 13

127
mountain west
betting preview
The Mountain West Conference has an opportunity to shine early in front of the college football world. Three of the seven games in Week 0 will include a
Mountain West team, including San Jose State visiting USC and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. On Labor Day weekend, Boise State
will play at 3:30 p.m. ET against Washington on ABC. Later that night, Wyoming will host Texas Tech on CBS primetime. On Sunday, September 3, San Jose
State will unveil the new renovations to its stadium as the Spartans host a good Oregon State team in a standalone game on CBS. In Week 2, San Diego
State plays host to UCLA in primetime on CBS, Boise State welcomes UCF to the blue turf for a primetime game on FS1, and UNLV visits Michigan for a 3:30
pm kickoff on CBS. There will be plenty of eyes on the conference early this season, but will these teams make any noise?

Boise State (+175) enters the year as the favorite, but the Broncos have not won the Mountain West since 2019. Boise State went undefeated in conference
play last year but lost to Fresno State in the conference championship. Fresno State (+380) needs to replace QB Jake Haener. Air Force (+400) lost
a quarterback that started 31 games, as well as the conference player of the year at running back. San Diego State (+700) lost a ton of talent on the
defensive side of the ball. Wyoming (+1200) could have the best defense in the conference, but can the Cowboys score enough points to challenge for the
title? San Jose State (+1400) brings back QB Chevan Cordeiro, who was named Mountain West Preseason Player of the Year, but lost its top wide receiver
and multiple Mountain West Defensive Players of the Year off the defense (Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall).

With the early challenges in the nonconference portion of the schedule, the Mountain West could be handed some lumps early. However, a conference
that has been mostly dominated by Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Air Force feels a bit more open this year. Wyoming and Colorado State
(+2800) are two teams that could make some noise. Boise State is the rightful favorite with the best backfield in the conference, but +175 is too short of a
price for the Broncos before the season starts.

2023 PROJECTED STANDINGS (BASED ON STEVE MAKINEN RATINGS)

2023 Schedule Strength All Games Conference Games DraftKings
Team SM PR (Rank) PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's O/U
BOISE ST 46 37.62 (74) 8.3 3.7 6.3 1.7 8.5
AIR FORCE 41.5 29.51 (129) 8.8 3.2 5.7 2.3 8.5
FRESNO ST 42.5 32.7 (118) 8.4 3.6 5.7 2.3 8
SAN DIEGO ST 39 34.73 (99) 6.9 5.1 5.0 3.0 7
WYOMING 38 35.18 (93) 6.7 5.3 5.0 3.0 6.5
SAN JOSE ST 34.5 36.52 (85) 5.4 6.6 4.0 4.0 5.5
UNLV 31.5 34.25 (103) 5.6 6.4 3.9 4.1 6
NEVADA 26.5 34.82 (98) 4.0 8.0 3.1 4.9 4
COLORADO ST 30 34.04 (104) 4.6 7.4 2.9 5.1 4.5
UTAH ST 30 34.38 (101) 4.6 7.4 2.9 5.1 5.5
HAWAII 23 33.38 (108) 3.6 9.4 2.0 6.0 3.5
NEW MEXICO 21 32.38 (120) 3.4 8.6 1.7 6.3 3.5

128
 AIR FORCE HEAD COACH: TROY CALHOUN (17TH)
FALCONS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MIKE THIESSEN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRIAN KNORR

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #69 OF 133

Troy Calhoun returns for his 17th season at Air Force, and the Falcons have been a
consistent winner under him. Over the last three full seasons (excluding 2020), Air
Force has won nine or more games in the regular season. Last year, the Falcons were
a favorite in every regular season game and finished 9-3 (6-6 ATS).
POWER RATING 41.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #3 OF 12

Air Force, like the other service academies, cannot utilize the portal, so it will have 2023 SCHEDULE
to figure out a way to replace two of the best players in school history. Daniels DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
finished with a 22-9 record as Air Force’s starting quarterback. Defensively, with eight
9/2 ROBERT MORRIS -53 -8
SCHEDULE 29.51
returning starters, Air Force should be solid again. Also working in the Falcons’ favor is
their schedule. Air Force is projected to face one of the easiest schedules in the nation. 9/9 vs. Sam Houston St -18.5 23
STRENGTH #129 TOUGHEST OF 133

OFFENSE
Mike Thiessen is back for his 14th season as the Air Force offensive coordinator.
9/15 UTAH ST
9/22 at San Jose St
-14.5
-5
30
34.5
FIELD 3.3 / 0.3
Thiessen is the longest-tenured OC in the country. The Falcons have led the nation in
9/30 SAN DIEGO ST -5.5 39
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
rushing the last three years, but this year they will not have Brad Roberts, who led
the nation with 1,728 rushing yards, including 11 games over 100 yards and 17 total 10/14 WYOMING -7 38
rushing touchdowns.
10/21 at Navy -2 37
They also lost QB Haaziq Daniels, the Falcons’ third-leading rusher last year with 695 10/28 at Colorado St -10 30
2023 ODDS
yards and eight touchdowns. Running back John Lee Eldridge will likely try to fill the
void left by Roberts. Eldridge had 766 rushing yards and four touchdowns last year. 11/4 vs. Army -6 36

+400
The offensive line should be solid, but left tackle Everett Smalley was dismissed from 11/11 at Hawaii -16.5 23 ODDS TO WIN
the program in May. Smalley was Second Team All-Mountain West last year. Center MOUNTAIN WEST
Thor Paglialong was selected to the First Team All-Mountain West this preseason.
11/18 UNLV -13.5 31.5
11/24 at Boise St 7.5 46
DEFENSE
In addition to leading the nation in rushing yards, Air Force was tops in the nation in
time of possession and yards allowed per game. The Falcons allowed just 254.4 yards
ODDS TO WIN
per game last season and finished 10th in defensive efficiency, according to SP+.
RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 500-1
13
NATIONAL
Eight starters return from last year’s defense, which is rare at a service academy.
Leading tackler S Trey Taylor returns along with NT Payton Zdroik. Both were selected
STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

to the preseason All-Mountain West first team. Zdroik had 5.5 sacks last season and
will look to build on that. Linebacker Vince Sanford will be a big loss from last year’s
team. Sanford led the Falcons with 6.5 sacks. With the production that was lost on
offense, the defense will be Air Force’s strength in 2023.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OUTLOOK OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 10-3, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 6-7
Despite winning nine games last year, Air Force underachieved a bit. The Falcons lost STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
three conference games, including two as a double-digit favorite. Air Force did sweep Points Per Game 26.2 72 13.1 1 9/3 N IOWA (-16) 48-17 W W
Army and Navy to win the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy. The schedule is certainly
Yards Per Point 14.4 72 18.5 6 9/10 COLORADO (-17.5) 41-10 W W
an advantage this year when looking at the win total. According to Phil Steele’s
projection, Air Force will play the sixth easiest schedule in the FBS this year. Plays Per Game 68.6 87 9/16 at Wyoming (-16.5) 14-17 L L
Time of Possession 36:27 1 9/23 NEVADA (-24.5) 48-20 W W
The Falcons avoid Fresno State in conference but finish the season at Boise State. 3rd Down Conv. % 43.6% 32 28.0% 4 10/1 NAVY (-14) 13-10 W L
An improved Colorado State squad will host Air Force in between the Falcons games Total Yards Per Game 377.3 69 242.5 1 10/8 at Utah St (-11.5) 27-34 L L
against Navy and Army. If the Falcons sweep Navy and Army again this season, they
should go over their win total. I expect Navy to be improved and Army will likely hover Yards Per Play 5.5 55 4.7 12 10/15 at Unlv (-10) 42-7 W W
around .500. My prediction is that Air Force will head into the season finale at Boise Rush Attempts Per Game 60.8 1 10/22 BOISE ST (-2.5) 14-19 L L
State with eight wins. Rush Yards Per Game 310.1 1 94 3 11/5 vs. Army (-7) 13-7 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 21 3.3 11 11/12 NEW MEXICO (-21) 35-3 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 6.8 131 11/19 COLORADO ST (-22) 24-12 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 46.9% 129 57.9% 30 11/26 at San Diego St (-2) 13-3 W W

UNDER 8.5
Passing Yards Per Game 67.3 131 148.5 1 12/22 vs. Baylor (3.5) 30-15 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 10 1 6.9 43
Turnovers 0.9 13 1.2 100

129
 BOISE STATE HEAD COACH: ANDY AVALOS (3RD)
BRONCOS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BUSH HAMDAN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SPENCER DANIELSON / KANE IOANE

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #51 OF 133

Being the most recognizable school in the Mountain West has not led to an
embarrassment of championships lately. Despite going 8-0 in conference play last year,
the Broncos fell to Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship. Boise State’s last
conference championship was in 2019. Last year, after a 2-2 start (including a loss as a
POWER RATING 46 CONFERENCE RANK: #1 OF 12
16-point favorite at UTEP), the Broncos brought in former Boise State head coach Dirk
Koetter to be the offensive coordinator.
2023 SCHEDULE
The schedule is rough for the Broncos. Boise State opens the season at Washington, then DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
hosts UCF in Week 2. Two weeks later, the Broncos play at San Diego State on a Friday
night and then head to Memphis on September 3. Boise State is once again the favorite 9/2 at Washington 14 58
SCHEDULE 37.62
to win the conference (+175 at DraftKings).
9/9 UCF 1 50
STRENGTH #74 TOUGHEST OF 133

3.1 / 0.4
OFFENSE
Nine starters return from last year’s team, including QB Taylen Green and a pair of
9/16 N DAKOTA -19.5 30
FIELD
dynamic running backs in George Holani and Ashton Jeanty. The trio of Green, Holani,
Jeanty rushed for a combined 2,566 yards last year. Former Broncos quarterback Bush
9/22 at San Diego St -5 39
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Hamdan will take over as the offensive coordinator. Hamdan was the quarterback’s 9/30 at Memphis 1 44.5
coach at Missouri from 2020-22. Green completed 61% of his passes for 2,042 yards and 10/7 SAN JOSE ST -14.5 34.5
14 touchdowns. Holani and Jeanty could be the best running back duo in the country.

2023 ODDS
10/14 at Colorado St -14.5 30
In all, nine starters return on offense. Three starters on the offensive line are back and
the top four pass catchers are, too. But they need to replace First Team All-Conference left 10/28 WYOMING -11 38
tackle John Ojukwu, who is now in training camp with the Tennessee Titans. The offense
11/4 at Fresno St -2 42.5
will be put to the test right away with a Week 1 road trip to Washington.

+175
11/11 NEW MEXICO -28.5 21 ODDS TO WIN
DEFENSE MOUNTAIN WEST
Andy Avalos is a defensive-minded head coach (defensive coordinator at Oregon 2019- 11/18 at Utah St -14.5 30
20) and he will have his work cut out for him this year. The defense lost six starters and
nine of the 18 players that played 250+ snaps. Safety JL Skinner and defensive lineman
11/24 AIR FORCE -7.5 41.5
Scott Matlock were both selected in the sixth round of the NFL Draft. Skinner was First
Team All-Mountain West last year. He had four interceptions and 65 tackles. DE George
Tarlas is in camp with the Las Vegas Raiders. Tarlas had four sacks last year before being
ODDS TO WIN
lost for the season with an injury.
RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 300-1
14
NATIONAL
Linebacker Ezekial Noa was Second Team All-Mountain West last year and has also left.
In addition to Skinner’s departure, cornerback Caleb Biggers and safety Tyreque Jones
exited. Linebacker DJ Schramm led the Broncos with 107 tackles and returns for his
STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

senior season. Last year’s defense finished seventh nationally in yards allowed per game
(292.5). Regression is likely for this year’s defense.

OUTLOOK
Boise State was selected by the media to win the Mountain West in 2023, receiving 28
of the 37 first-place votes. The Broncos’ offense should be improved and likely the top
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
offense in the Mountain West. On the other side of the ball, there are a lot of holes to OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 10-4, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 7-7
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
be filled from last year’s team. The start of the season is quite challenging. The Broncos
open the season at Washington (-14.5). The Huskies could be a preseason Top 10 team. Points Per Game 29.5 49 20.5 14 9/3 at Oregon St (1.5) 17-34 L L
The following week, Boise State hosts UCF. After playing FCS North Dakota on September Yards Per Point 13.3 34 14.8 50 9/9 at New Mexico (-17) 31-14 W T
16, the Broncos open Mountain West play at San Diego State on a Friday night, then visit
Plays Per Game 67.1 99 9/17 TENN-MARTIN (-24) 30-7 W L
Memphis on September 30.
Time of Possession 30:13 58 9/23 at UTEP (-16.5) 10-27 L L
If Boise State escapes September with a winning record, the Broncos will have a big 3rd Down Conv. % 38.9% 59 32.8% 17 9/30 SAN DIEGO ST (-6) 35-13 W W
season. In conference, Boise State does not play the three teams that were voted to finish
in the bottom three spots in the conference (Hawaii, Nevada, and New Mexico). With the Total Yards Per Game 392 56 303.5 8 10/8 FRESNO ST (-10.5) 40-20 W W
defensive concerns, Boise State could struggle early in the season, and it seems unlikely Yards Per Play 5.8 41 4.7 13 10/22 at Air Force (2.5) 19-14 W W
the Broncos will run through conference play unblemished for a second straight year.
Rush Attempts Per Game 38.5 44 10/29 COLORADO ST (-25) 49-10 W W
However, the conference is a bit down this year, and Boise State could absolutely take
down the Mountain West for the first time since 2019. Rush Yards Per Game 202.5 16 132.6 35 11/5 BYU (-9.5) 28-31 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.3 13 3.6 26 11/12 at Nevada (-21) 41-3 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 27.7 103 11/19 at Wyoming (-14.5) 20-17 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 58.6% 83 51.5% 1 11/25 UTAH ST (-16.5) 42-23 W W

UNDER 8.5
Passing Yards Per Game 189.5 108 170.9 4 12/3 FRESNO ST (-3) 16-28 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.8 82 6.7 31 12/17 vs. North Texas (-12.5) 35-32 W L
Turnovers 1.2 41 1.5 59

130
 COLORADO STATE HEAD COACH: JAY NORVELL (2ND)
RAMS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MATT MUMME
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: FREDDIE BANKS

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #117 OF 133

After leading Nevada to four consecutive bowl appearances, Jay Norvell left Reno to
replace Steve Addazio at Colorado State in 2022. The Rams finished 3-9 last season but
could make a big jump in 2023. The Rams added over 20 players via the transfer portal,
including a revamped offensive line.
POWER RATING 30 CONFERENCE RANK: #9 OF 12

OFFENSE
There was no offensive line worse in the FBS than Colorado State’s in 2022. The Rams
allowed an FBS-worst 59 sacks during the season (4.92 sacks per game). Norvell used
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
the transfer portal to tweak his offensive line. Center Jacob Gardner, who played tackle
last year, is the only returning starter on the offensive line. The other four starters will 9/2 WASHINGTON ST 14 46
SCHEDULE 34.04
likely be transfers.
9/16 at Colorado 7.5 34.5
STRENGTH #104 TOUGHEST OF 133
Quarterback Clay Millen completed 72% of his passes, but if they were not being thrown
to Tory Horton, it was likely a short pass due to the lack of protection. Millen is a former
four-star recruit (according to 247 Sports) that committed to Nevada. After redshirting
9/23 at Middle Tenn St 5.5 32.5
FIELD 1.8 / -0.3
in 2020, Millen followed Norvell to Colorado State. Millen’s father, Hugh, was a
quarterback in the NFL for a decade, including being John Elway’s backup from 1996-97.
9/30 UTAH TECH -19 13
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
10/7 at Utah St 2 30
Horton is a dynamic wide receiver and returns for his junior season despite some interest
from SEC schools. Horton had 71 receptions for 1,131 and eight touchdowns last year. He 10/14 BOISE ST 14.5 46
accounted for 48% of the Rams’ passing yards in 2022.

2023 ODDS
10/21 at UNLV 4 31.5
Justus Ross-Simmons, Colorado State’s second-leading receiver, returns and the Rams
added SMU transfer Dylan Goffney in the portal. At running back, Kobe Johnson 10/28 AIR FORCE 10 41.5
transferred in from North Dakota State as the Bison’s leading rusher. The status of 11/3 at Wyoming 11.5 38
the Rams’ leading rusher last year, Avery Morrow, is TBD due to an off-field incident.
Running back Damian Henderson was the Rams’ top high school recruit and could be an 11/11 SAN DIEGO ST 7.5 39 ODDS TO WIN
impact player this fall. At tight end, Colorado State added Dallin Holker from BYU.
11/18 NEVADA -5 26.5
30-1 MOUNTAIN WEST

DEFENSE
Colorado State returns eight starters from last year’s team, and DE Mohamed Kamara is 11/25 at Hawaii -4 23
the best of the bunch. Kamara had 8.5 sacks last year and was selected to the preseason
First Team All-Mountain West team. The defensive line is likely Colorado State’s deepest
and best position on the roster.
ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 5000-1
15
Defensive end Tony Pierce will likely line up opposite Kamara. Pierce played in 52 games NATIONAL
(38 starts) over four years at North Dakota State. Safety Jack Howell was First Team
All-Mountain West last year and is back in 2023. Howell had a team-high 108 tackles and
three interceptions last season. Oregon State transfer Ron Hardge should start opposite
STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

of returning starting CB Chigozie Anusiem. Anusiem had a team-high nine pass breakups
last season.

OUTLOOK
The Rams have not reached a bowl game since 2017. From 1994-2017, Colorado State
was a regular in the postseason, playing in 15 bowl games. Norvell took on a full-on 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
rebuild in Fort Collins, but Colorado State is a team on the rise. After finding a way to OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-9, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 1-11
three wins last year, the Rams should fight for bowl eligibility in 2023. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 13.5 127 25.6 52 9/3 at Michigan (31) 7-51 L L
The Rams open the season as a two-touchdown home underdog against Washington
State and then get a bye week to prepare for Colorado. The Buffaloes have been the talk Yards Per Point 21.6 128 13.7 80 9/10 MIDDLE TENN ST (-14) 19-34 L L
of college football this offseason with the hiring of Deion Sanders. Colorado opens the Plays Per Game 64.8 120 9/17 at Washington St (17) 7-38 L L
season with back-to-back appearances on Fox’s “Big Noon Kickoff.” The Rams could be
getting Colorado in a good spot. Time of Possession 29:43 68 9/24 SACRAMENTO ST (4) 10-41 L L
3rd Down Conv. % 22.5% 130 35.5% 37 10/7 at Nevada (3.5) 17-14 W W
A road trip to Middle Tennessee could be a swing game for the win total in Week 3. The
Rams avoid Fresno State and San Jose State but unfortunately miss out on the preseason Total Yards Per Game 290.3 125 351.7 32 10/15 UTAH ST (14) 13-17 L W
last-place team, New Mexico. Boise State, Air Force, and San Diego State all come to Fort Yards Per Play 4.5 117 5 33 10/22 HAWAII (-6) 17-13 W L
Collins for a chance to pull off an upset. Additionally, Air Force plays Colorado State the
Rush Attempts Per Game 32.4 103 10/29 at Boise St (25) 10-49 L L
week after visiting Navy and the week before playing Army. With the added talent via
the portal and the returning starters, Colorado State is one of my favorite win total plays Rush Yards Per Game 91.8 126 164.3 79 11/5 at San Jose St (24) 16-28 L W
of the year. Yards Per Rush Attempt 2.8 129 4.2 68 11/12 WYOMING (8.5) 13-14 L W
Pass Attempts Per Game 27.3 107 11/19 at Air Force (22) 12-24 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 63.3% 36 61.2% 77 11/25 NEW MEXICO (-7.5) 17-0 W W

OVER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 198.5 102 187.5 12
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.3 66 6.4 17
Turnovers 1.6 93 1.3 83

131
 FRESNO STATE HEAD COACH: JEFF TEDFORD (5TH)
BULLDOGS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: PAT MCCANN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KEVIN COYLE

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #67 OF 133

42.5
After a sluggish start to the season and an injury to QB Jake Haener, Fresno State won
nine straight games and the Mountain West. The team also wrapped up the season with
a dominant 29-6 win over Washington State in the LA Bowl and finished No. 24 in the
AP Poll. The Bulldogs enter 2023 with the third-longest winning streak in the FBS, but
POWER RATING CONFERENCE RANK: #2 OF 12
they will be without Haener, last year’s leading rusher Jordan Mims, and their top three
leading receivers. The Bulldogs went to the portal to fill those voids.
Offensive coordinator Kirby Moore departed for Missouri and head coach Jeff Tedford 2023 SCHEDULE
promoted WR coach Pat McCann to fill the role. Fortunately for Fresno State, the two DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Power Five teams on schedule this year have new head coaches (Purdue, Arizona State).
The reigning conference champs were picked to finish third in the conference. 9/2 at Purdue 5.5 46
SCHEDULE 32.70
OFFENSE 9/9 E WASHINGTON -28 16.5
STRENGTH #118 TOUGHEST OF 133
How does a Group of Five team replace a quarterback selected in the fourth round of
the NFL draft, a 1,300-yard rusher, and a 1,000-yard wide receiver? We are about to
find out. Haener hurt his ankle last season in the third game of the season, missed four
9/16 at Arizona St 2 42.5
FIELD 2.1 / 0.1
games, and when he returned, Fresno State could not be stopped. He was First Team
All-Mountain West and threw 20 touchdowns with only three interceptions. The Bulldogs
9/23 KENT ST
9/30 NEVADA
-24.5
-18
20.5
26.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
will have a quarterback competition this fall between Logan Fife and UCF transfer Mikey
Keene. Fife went 2-2 as the starter when Haener was injured. In his first start, Fresno
State lost as a 23-point favorite at UConn. 10/7 at Wyoming -1.5 38

2023 ODDS
10/13 at Utah St -11 30
After rushing for 1,370 yards and 18 touchdowns last year, Jordan Mims was signed by
the Buffalo Bills as an undrafted free agent. Running back Malik Sherrod (428 rushing 10/28 UNLV -13.5 31.5
yards, two TDs) will take over for Mims. The Bulldogs also added RB Damien Moore from
Cal via the portal. Moore had a solid 2021 in Berkeley, rushing for 518 yards. 11/4 BOISE ST 2 46

+380
The top receiver returning is Erik Brooks, who had 37 receptions for 391 yards and three 11/11 at San Jose St -5.5 34.5 ODDS TO WIN
touchdowns. Fresno State added WR Mikel Barkley from Toledo, Jaelen Gill (#63 overall MOUNTAIN WEST
recruit in the Class of 2020) from Boston College, and a couple of JUCO wide receivers. In 11/18 NEW MEXICO -24 21
all, Fresno State lost six of its top seven pass catchers from a season ago.
11/25 at San Diego St -1 39
The offensive line returns four starters, but center Bula Schmidt departs. Schmidt was
Second Team All-Mountain West last year. Right guard Mose Vavao was the only Bulldog
voted to preseason All-Mountain West. It is difficult to see how this year’s offense will be
in the same ballpark as last year’s. ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 4 1000-1
11
NATIONAL

STARTERS
DEFENSE
The Fresno State defense might have to carry the Bulldogs early this season. Believe it or CHAMPIONSHIP
not, according to SP+, the defense was better than the offense last season. Fresno State DEFENSE: 7
finished 36th nationally in defense in 2022 per SP+. Defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle
must figure out a way to replace defensive end David Perales. Perales was First Team
All-Mountain West last year and led Fresno State with 11.5 sacks.
The defense does return seven starters and eight players that had over 400 snaps
last year. Defensive end Devo Bridges was selected First Team All-Mountain West this
preseason after having 6.5 tackles for losses last year. Linebacker Levelle Bailey is back
after leading Fresno State in tackles last year. The Bulldogs lost some production in the
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
secondary, including Evan Williams (Second Team All-Mountain West), but cornerback OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 10-4, ATS: 7-7, O/U: 7-7
Cameron Lockridge returns. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 30.2 42 20.4 13 9/1 CAL POLY SLO (-43) 35-7 W L
OUTLOOK 21 16.7 18
Tedford will have his hands full with his team this year, but if the quarterback position Yards Per Point 13 9/10 OREGON ST (-1) 32-35 L L
does not have a massive drop off, Fresno State could return to the Mountain West Plays Per Game 68.8 85 9/17 at USC (11.5) 17-45 L L
Championship. The Bulldogs are less than a touchdown underdog in their season opener
at Purdue and will likely be less than a touchdown underdog at Arizona State as well. If Time of Possession 31:05 37 10/1 at Connecticut (-23.5) 14-19 L L
Fresno State can go 3-1 in the nonconference portion of the schedule, the Bulldogs could 3rd Down Conv. % 45.5% 22 36.7% 48 10/8 at Boise St (10.5) 20-40 L L
be on track to go Over.
Total Yards Per Game 391.8 58 340.8 25 10/15 SAN JOSE ST (7) 17-10 W W
Fresno State avoids Air Force in conference play and hosts preseason favorite Boise State. Yards Per Play 5.7 45 5 30 10/22 at New Mexico (-9.5) 41-9 W W
Road trips to Wyoming, San Jose State, and San Diego State will be a challenge. This is
not a win total I have played, but based on Jeff Tedford’s track record and playing two Rush Attempts Per Game 32.9 96 10/29 SAN DIEGO ST (-11) 32-28 W L
weaker Power Five programs, I think it is more likely the Bulldogs win nine games than Rush Yards Per Game 129.5 88 153.2 64 11/5 HAWAII (-27.5) 55-13 W W
seven in 2023.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.9 78 4.3 84 11/11 at Unlv (-8.5) 37-30 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 33.1 52 11/19 at Nevada (-22.5) 41-14 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 69.8% 2 53.7% 5 11/25 WYOMING (-14) 30-0 W W

OVER 8
Passing Yards Per Game 262.4 35 187.6 13 12/3 at Boise St (3) 28-16 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.9 36 6.2 9 12/17 vs. Washington St (-5.5) 29-6 W W
Turnovers 1.1 22 1.4 68

132
 HAWAII HEAD COACH: TIMMY CHANG (2ND)
RAINBOW WARRIORS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ROMAN SAPOLU / IAN SHOEMAKER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JACOB YORO

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #129 OF 133

Hawaii needed two upset wins just to go 3-10 last season, as the Rainbow
Warriors beat Duquesne as an eight-point favorite and weren’t favored in
any other game. It was going to be a tough season with some transfers and a
first-time head coach that was a program legend, but not exactly proven on the
POWER RATING 23 CONFERENCE RANK: #11 OF 12

sidelines. Close calls at San Diego State and Colorado State, plus covers against
Wyoming, Utah State, and San Jose State may have served as building blocks 2023 SCHEDULE
for 2023. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
8/26 at Vanderbilt 18 39.5
SCHEDULE 33.38
OFFENSE
There were clear growing pains for the offense, but the running game really 9/1 STANFORD 8.5 34
STRENGTH #108 TOUGHEST OF 133
got going in Mountain West play with 4.8 yards per carry and the passing
FIELD 2.5 / -0.2
game had over 200 yards in each of the last five games, including over 300 9/9 ALBANY -11 15
against Utah State. While 200 passing yards isn’t a big number, especially in 9/16 at Oregon 40 59.5
a run-and-shoot offense like Hawaii’s, the Rainbow Warriors got more efficient
9/23 NEW MEXICO ST 0 26
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
as the season went along. The top three pass-catchers from the previous season
had also moved on, so Hawaii had very little returning production there. 9/30 at UNLV 11 31.5
10/14 SAN DIEGO ST 14 39
Brayden Schager only had 13 TD against 10 INT, and he’ll need to be better
than that, but two of the top four receivers return this season, and there is a 10/21 at New Mexico 0.5 21
2023 ODDS
little more experience at the position. Still, Hawaii should go as the running
game goes, as sophomore Tylan Hines averaged 7.6 yards per carry last season 10/28 SAN JOSE ST 9 34.5
while mostly playing behind Dedrick Parson. 11/4 at Nevada 6.5 26.5 ODDS TO WIN

11/11 AIR FORCE 16.5 41.5

150-1 MOUNTAIN WEST
DEFENSE
Anytime the offense struggles, the defense is going to have a hard time. 11/18 at Wyoming 18 38
Hawaii was crushed by graduation and the transfer portal last season with only
11/25 at Fla International 4 30
two returning starters. This group has nine, as defensive coordinator Jacob
Yoro was forced to play a lot of redshirt freshmen and sophomores in 2023.
The Hawaii defense allowed 6.6 yards per play, so massive improvement is ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 QB 10000-1
14
required, but the Rainbow Warriors were 67th in red zone TD% against. They NATIONAL
were tied for the sixth-most red zone attempts against, though.
STARTERS DEFENSE: 9
CHAMPIONSHIP

It is worth pointing out that Hawaii gave up over 600 yards to Vanderbilt and
just under 600 yards to Michigan, so those two games did skew a lot of their
numbers. Only Fresno State really put it on them in Mountain West play. The
defense does bring back four of the top five tacklers and would benefit from
more takeaways. Hawaii only recovered two fumbles but also only forced four. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
Going for the ball should be more of an emphasis. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-10, ATS: 9-4, O/U: 5-8
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 19.4 113 36.4 122 8/27 VANDERBILT (9) 10-63 L L
As usual, Hawaii plays 13 games, so remember that when thinking about
Yards Per Point 18.3 121 12.2 118 9/3 W KENTUCKY (13) 17-49 L L
their win total. The nonconference schedule doesn’t have Michigan, but it does
have Oregon, so that’s another road paycheck game. Despite playing in Week Plays Per Game 72.3 47 9/10 at Michigan (53) 10-56 L W
0, Hawaii only has one bye, but it is well-timed to break the season into six Time of Possession 28:43 93 9/17 DUQUESNE (-9.5) 24-14 W W
games and seven games. I think this year’s team is pretty clearly better than 3rd Down Conv. % 34.4% 100 39.3% 67 9/24 at New Mexico St (4.5) 26-45 L L
last year’s, and head coach Timmy Chang has actually had more time to recruit Total Yards Per Game 356 90 445 113 10/8 at San Diego St (24) 14-16 L W
and get involved in the portal after being hired in January 2022. My projection
is for 4.36 wins, as the conference is weaker and Hawaii is improved. Yards Per Play 4.9 98 6.7 127 10/15 NEVADA (6) 31-16 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 31.8 107 10/22 at Colorado St (6) 13-17 L W
Rush Yards Per Game 141.1 77 220.6 126 10/29 WYOMING (11.5) 20-27 L W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.4 52 5.8 127 11/5 at Fresno St (27.5) 13-55 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 39.1 17 11/12 UTAH ST (10.5) 34-41 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 52.7% 120 65.5% 119 11/19 UNLV (11) 31-25 W W

OVER 3.5
Passing Yards Per Game 214.9 87 224.4 56 11/26 at San Jose St (15.5) 14-27 L W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.5 125 8.3 118
Turnovers 1.5 72 0.8 128

133
 NEVADA HEAD COACH: KEN WILSON (2ND)
WOLF PACK
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DEREK SAGE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KWAME AGYEMAN / MIKE BETHEA

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #122 OF 133

Expectations in Reno aren’t always the highest and that was especially true
of the 2022 season, as Nevada went from a pass-happy attack to a run-first
mindset. As you would expect with a lot of round holes and square pegs, it was
a long season for the Wolf Pack, who went 2-10 and had their worst season
POWER RATING 26.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #10 OF 12

since 2000. That was their first year in the WAC and their first year in FBS. At
least things look better for Year 2. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
SCHEDULE 34.82
9/2 at USC 37.5 62
Few teams in college football made as big of a transition as Nevada last
9/9 IDAHO 3.5 33
STRENGTH #98 TOUGHEST OF 133
season. The Wolf Pack saw Jay Norvell take his Air Raid offense to Colorado
State and subsequently hired Ken Wilson, who ran the ball more than he threw
it in the midst of a 2-10 season. Personnel recruited to run an Air Raid had
9/16 KANSAS 16.5 46
FIELD 2.7 / 0.1
trouble with the new offense, as the team managed just 18.8 points per game
9/23 at Texas St Univ 3.5 27.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
and 4.4 yards per play. 9/30 at Fresno St 18 42.5
10/14 UNLV 2 31.5
The Wolf Pack only had two returning starters last season and are light on
experience again, but attacked the transfer portal to get a new QB in Brendon
Lewis from Colorado and some help on the offensive line. Nevada ran the ball
10/21 at San Diego St
10/28 NEW MEXICO
15
-8.5
39
21
2023 ODDS
427 times for just 3.3 yards per carry and only had 398 pass attempts with 11/4 HAWAII -6.5 23
seven TD passes against eight interceptions. It would be hard to imagine this ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Utah St 5 30
group being as bad as last season, but explosive plays will still be hard to find. 55-1 MOUNTAIN WEST
11/18 at Colorado St 5 30
DEFENSE 11/25 WYOMING 8.5 38
The Nevada defense largely held its own with minimal help from the offense.
With just three returning starters, they allowed over 30 points per game and
5.8 yards per play, but they managed a positive turnover margin and were
ODDS TO WIN
34th in TD% against in the red zone. The Nevada offense ranked 103rd in RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 5000-1
13
NATIONAL

STARTERS
third-down conversion rate, so the defense was out there a lot and had issues CHAMPIONSHIP
getting off the field with the 102nd-ranked third-down conversion rate against. DEFENSE: 8

Eight starters are back this time, though the three leading tacklers are all
gone. Top corners Jaden Dedman and Isaiah Essissima are both back after
combining for 17 pass breakups and a couple of interceptions. Co-DC Kwame
Agyeman coached up the defensive backs at Oregon for two years, so that
group could certainly see improvement, and some transfers to the front seven
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 2-10, ATS: 4-8, O/U: 5-6
may help as well. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 16.8 121 28.7 77 8/27 at New Mexico St (-7.5) 23-12 W W
OUTLOOK 17.2 113 13.1 105
Yards Per Point 9/3 TEXAS ST UNIV (2) 38-14 W W
Even though Nevada plays a really weak schedule, I’m not buying into the Ken
Plays Per Game 69 82 9/10 INCARNATE WORD (-4) 41-55 L L
Wilson regime. They do have several lines under a touchdown, including five in
underdog roles and one as a favorite, so this season will hinge on how those Time of Possession 28:06 111 9/17 at Iowa (24) 0-27 L L
projected close games go. I have 3.96 wins as a projection, and with a win total 3rd Down Conv. % 35.6% 92 41.6% 91 9/23 at Air Force (24.5) 20-48 L L
of 4, that seems pretty accurate. For the sake of giving a pick, I’d lean Under Total Yards Per Game 289.2 126 376.4 51 10/7 COLORADO ST (-3.5) 14-17 L L
because I have them a dog in each of their last three games. Yards Per Play 4.2 125 5.4 57 10/15 at Hawaii (-6) 16-31 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 34.1 87 10/22 SAN DIEGO ST (7) 7-23 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 114.4 101 163.3 77 10/29 at San Jose St (24.5) 28-35 L W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.4 108 4.3 85 11/12 BOISE ST (21) 3-41 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.3 59 11/19 FRESNO ST (22.5) 14-41 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 54.9% 110 59.1% 49 11/26 at Unlv (12.5) 22-27 L W

UNDER 4
Passing Yards Per Game 174.8 116 213.1 39
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.4 126 7.1 57
Turnovers 1.4 54 1.5 46

134
 NEW MEXICO HEAD COACH: DANNY GONZALES (4TH)
LOBOS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRYANT VINCENT
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TROY REFFETT

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #131 OF 133

The only thing high in Albuquerque is the elevation. Hopes, dreams,
expectations, however you want to phrase it, they are not high for the Lobos
this season. New Mexico has gone 7-24 under fourth-year head coach Danny
Gonzales and went 8-28 in the final three seasons under Bob Davie. This
POWER RATING 21 CONFERENCE RANK: #12 OF 12

team hasn’t won more than three games since 2016, and now the pressure is
mounting because in-state rival New Mexico State went bowling under Jerry 2023 SCHEDULE
Kill last year. The seat is hot for Gonzales in another season where wins look DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
hard to find.
9/2 at Texas A&M 38.5 56
SCHEDULE 32.38
OFFENSE 9/9 TENNESSEE TECH -12 11.5
STRENGTH #120 TOUGHEST OF 133
It turns out that scoring about 13 points per game isn’t going to get it done.
Over the last two seasons, the Lobos have scored 12.2 and 13.1 points per
game. Defensively, they’ve been better, which makes sense since Gonzales has
9/16 NEW MEXICO ST 2.5 26
FIELD 2.1 / -0.5
been a defensive coordinator at San Diego State and Arizona State. Offensively,
9/23 at Massachusetts
9/30 at Wyoming
-1
20.5
17.5
38
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
though, this has been one of the worst teams in the nation.
10/14 SAN JOSE ST 11.5 34.5
Things could be looking up a little this season. Former UAB offensive
2023 ODDS
coordinator and head coach Bryant Vincent comes in after not being picked as 10/21 HAWAII -0.5 23
the Blazers’ head coach, and he brought veteran QB Dylan Hopkins with him. 10/28 at Nevada 8.5 26.5
He will be the best QB for the team in several years and could find a friend in
6-5 JUCO transfer DJ Washington. After averaging 3.9 and 4.0 yards per play 11/4 UNLV 8 31.5
the last two seasons, anybody capable of throwing a forward pass raises the 11/11 at Boise St 28.5 46 ODDS TO WIN
ceiling here.
11/18 at Fresno St 24 42.5
150-1 MOUNTAIN WEST

DEFENSE 11/24 UTAH ST 7.5 30

Defensive coordinator Rocky Long took his patented 3-3-5 to Syracuse. There
are only two returning starters to fill out the 3-3-5 under new DC Troy Reffett,
who will keep it in place, but this may very well be the last year of it for
New Mexico if a regime change does happen. Reffett has been a DC at four ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 10000-1
9
different stops, including one season under Long in 2008, so the 3-3-5 is also NATIONAL
his preferred scheme.
STARTERS DEFENSE: 2
CHAMPIONSHIP

In the two years with Long, the Lobos allowed 5.3 and 5.5 yards per play.
Given that the offense converted 22% of third-down attempts, it’s amazing
that this defense was able to survive without wearing down late in games.
The offense did move at a really slow pace, so even though the Lobos only
mustered 157 points for the season, the defense only faced 780 plays against 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
by being 30th in third-down conversion rate against a 34.13%. Any kind of OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 2-10, ATS: 3-8, O/U: 6-6
offensive efficiency will help. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 10.5 131 28.4 73 9/3 MAINE (-6) 41-0 W W
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 19.9 126 13.5 88 9/9 BOISE ST (17) 14-31 L T
It is kind of hard to know what to expect from New Mexico. If the defense
doesn’t fall off much (or at all) and the offense is able to take a few steps Plays Per Game 60.2 130 9/17 UTEP (2.5) 27-10 W W
towards respectability, then it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that the Lobos Time of Possession 28:09 109 9/24 at LSU (31) 0-38 L L
can win four or five games. They are favored twice for me and have a few 3rd Down Conv. % 17.7% 131 36.4% 44 9/30 at Unlv (14) 20-31 L W
other games where they are a short underdog. On the other hand, Gonzales is Total Yards Per Game 209.5 131 383.4 63 10/8 WYOMING (3.5) 14-27 L L
likely to be fired, and maybe the Hopkins/Vincent tandem doesn’t work with a
lack of skill-position talent. My projection is for 3.31 wins, and the line is 3.5, Yards Per Play 3.5 131 5.6 78 10/15 at New Mexico St (-7) 9-21 L L
so I lean Under, but at least there’s some hope on offense. Rush Attempts Per Game 34.7 79 10/22 FRESNO ST (9.5) 9-41 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 109.9 110 170.9 86 11/5 at Utah St (14.5) 10-27 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.2 119 4.3 78 11/12 at Air Force (21) 3-35 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 21.7 126 11/18 SAN DIEGO ST (14.5) 10-34 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 51.9% 121 62.5% 92 11/25 at Colorado St (7.5) 0-17 L L

UNDER 3.5
Passing Yards Per Game 99.6 128 212.5 37
Yards Per Pass Attempt 4.6 131 8 106
Turnovers 1.1 30 1.4 70

135
 SAN DIEGO STATE HEAD COACH: BRADY HOKE (4TH)
AZTECS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: RYAN LINDLEY
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KURT MATTIX

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #79 OF 133

As of now, San Diego State remains a member of the Mountain West Conference despite
consistent discussion about the Aztecs joining the Pac-12. Brady Hoke, in his second
stint at San Diego State, is entering Year 4, and their schedule does them no favors.
The Aztecs open the season playing host to Ohio in Week 0. The Bobcats are the second
favorite to win the MAC this year.
POWER RATING 39 CONFERENCE RANK: #4 OF 12

After playing FCS Idaho State in Week 1, San Diego State faces UCLA, Oregon State,
Boise State, and Air Force in consecutive weeks. Emerging with a .500 record after those
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
six weeks would be deemed a victory. While defense and special teams have been the
calling cards of the Aztecs, the defensive front lost a lot of talent from a year ago. Special
8/26 OHIO U -5 36.5
SCHEDULE 34.73
teams is always a strength for San Diego State, as K/P Jack Browning was named
Mountain West preseason Special Teams Player of the Year after going 20 for 25 on field 9/2 IDAHO ST -36 6
STRENGTH #99 TOUGHEST OF 133
goals. The Aztecs will need to replace star returner Jordan Byrd, who was a First Team

FIELD 2.4 / 0.4

All-Mountain West Conference punt returner and kick returner. 9/9 UCLA 10.5 51.5
OFFENSE 9/16 at Oregon St 17.5 53.5
Quarterback Jalen Mayden began 2022 in the Aztecs’ secondary before being thrust into
9/22 BOISE ST 5 46
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
quarterback duties in October. Mayden’s first practice back at QB was October 3, and he
started against Hawaii five days later. Mayden threw for 2,030 yards with 12 touchdowns
and 10 interceptions. Additionally, he rushed for 231 yards and three touchdowns. San 9/30 at Air Force 5.5 41.5
Diego State legend Ryan Lindley is the new offensive coordinator. Lindley working with
10/14 at Hawaii -14 23
Mayden all offseason should lead to improvements.
10/21 NEVADA -15 26.5
2023 ODDS
Running back Jordan Byrd led San Diego State with 390 rushing yards but has moved
on to the NFL (UDFA with Pittsburgh). Byrd will be more difficult to replace in the return 11/4 UTAH ST -11 30
game than in the backfield. After spring practices, the Aztecs took a big hit when right
+700
tackle Josh Simmons transferred to Ohio State. Center Alama Uluave was signed by the 11/11 at Colorado St -7.5 30 ODDS TO WIN
Dolphins as an undrafted free agent. Guard Cade Bennett was Second Team All-Mountain MOUNTAIN WEST
West last year and he returns. 11/18 at San Jose St -2.5 34.5
Tight end Mark Redman was a First Team All-Mountain West selection this preseason. 11/25 FRESNO ST 1 42.5
Redman had 21 catches for 233 yards and two touchdowns last year. Wideout Raphael
Williams transferred in from FCS Western Carolina. In two seasons, Williams had 1,617
receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. With a full offseason focused on quarterback, if
Mayden takes a leap, the Aztecs offense should be improved. ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 QB 500-1
12
NATIONAL

STARTERS
DEFENSE
Hoke earned his reputation by coaching defensive lines to an elite level. Hoke was the CHAMPIONSHIP
defensive line coach at Michigan from 1995-2002 before being hired as the head coach DEFENSE: 6
at Ball State. Hoke and defensive coordinator Kurt Mattix will have to work some magic
this season after losing three starters off last year’s defensive line, including First Team
All-Mountain West defensive lineman Jonah Tavai. Tavai had 10.5 sacks last year. Three-
time First Team All-Mountain West linebacker Caden McDonald graduated as well.

In all, the Aztecs lost six starters on defense, including three First Team All-Mountain
West and a Second Team selection. San Diego State added New Mexico linebacker Cody 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
Moon. Moon led the Lobos with 104 tackles and 4.5 sacks last year and was a preseason OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 5-8, O/U: 6-7
All-Mountain West selection. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 20.1 107 21.7 22 9/3 ARIZONA (-6) 20-38 L L
OUTLOOK
The first six games of the season is a gauntlet for San Diego State. The Aztecs play Ohio Yards Per Point 15.5 92 14.9 47 9/10 IDAHO ST (-32.5) 38-7 W L
in Week 0. The Bobcats are a four-point underdog and have the second-shortest odds to 63.9 124
win the MAC. After playing FCS Idaho State in Week 1, San Diego State hosts UCLA, visits Plays Per Game 9/17 at Utah (22.5) 7-35 L L
Oregon State, hosts Boise State on a Friday night, then goes to Air Force. The Aztecs could Time of Possession 31:06 36 9/24 TOLEDO (3) 17-14 W W
be an underdog in all four of those games.
3rd Down Conv. % 28.8% 125 35.8% 38 9/30 at Boise St (6) 13-35 L L
The best-case scenario out of those six games could be 3-3 for San Diego State. Total Yards Per Game 311.7 116 322.1 13 10/8 HAWAII (-24) 16-14 W L
Depending on how the offense comes together and how the defense fills the holes from
last year’s departures, the Aztecs could be a favorite in their final six games. The final Yards Per Play 4.9 100 4.8 15 10/22 at Nevada (-7) 23-7 W W
three games will not be easy: at Colorado State, at San Jose State, and home to Fresno Rush Attempts Per Game 35.5 76 10/29 at Fresno St (11) 28-32 L W
State. With a very difficult schedule and question marks on defense, the Aztecs seem
more likely to finish with six wins than eight in 2023. Rush Yards Per Game 124 90 117.3 20 11/5 UNLV (-5) 14-10 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.5 99 3.5 22 11/12 SAN JOSE ST (2) 43-27 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 26.3 114 11/18 at New Mexico (-14.5) 34-10 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 54.1% 114 61.4% 80 11/26 AIR FORCE (2) 3-13 L L

UNDER 7
Passing Yards Per Game 187.7 112 204.8 28 12/24 vs. Middle Tenn St (-7) 23-25 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.1 71 6.5 23
Turnovers 1.9 116 1.7 31

136
 SAN JOSE STATE HEAD COACH: BRENT BRENNAN (7TH)
SPARTANS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KEVIN MCGIVEN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DERRICK ODUM

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #95 OF 133

In 2020, San Jose State stunned the Mountain West by going undefeated
and winning the conference for the first time in school history. The Spartans
dropped off in 2021, missing a bowl game. But they reached a bowl in 2022,
losing to Eastern Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
POWER RATING 34.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #6 OF 12

San Jose State’s schedule is quite challenging in 2023. The Spartans visit
USC (-30.5) in Week 0 and host Oregon State (-16.5) in Week 1. San Jose 2023 SCHEDULE
State wraps up nonconference play with a trip to Toledo. The Rockets are the DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
favorites to win the MAC at DraftKings Sportsbook. Additionally, San Jose State
plays the top four favorites in the Mountain West as well. 8/26 at USC 29.5 62
SCHEDULE 36.52
9/3 OREGON ST 16.5 53.5
STRENGTH #85 TOUGHEST OF 133
The Spartans do return QB Chevan Cordeiro, who was named Mountain West

2.4 / 0.1
preseason Offensive Player of the Year. However, San Jose State must replace a
ton of talent lost on the defensive side of the ball, including reigning Mountain
9/9 CAL POLY SLO -32 5.5
FIELD
West Defensive Player of the Year Viliami Fehoko. 9/16 at Toledo 10.5 42
9/22 AIR FORCE 5 41.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
OFFENSE
Cordeiro, who enters his sixth season of college football this fall, started his 10/7 at Boise St 14.5 46
career at Hawaii, and he was named the Mountain West preseason Offensive
Player of the Year. Cordeiro threw for 3,251 yards, 23 touchdowns and six 10/14 at New Mexico -11.5 21
interceptions last season, while also rushing for nine touchdowns. San Jose
State head coach Brent Brennan joined VSiN Primetime and said that Cordeiro 10/21 UTAH ST -6.5 30
2023 ODDS
has “attacked” this offseason. 10/28 at Hawaii -9 23
The Spartans return nine starters this year, including running back Kairee 11/11 FRESNO ST 5.5 42.5 ODDS TO WIN
Robinson. Robinson rushed for 752 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.
11/18 SAN DIEGO ST 2.5 39
14-1 MOUNTAIN WEST
However, Cordeiro’s top target from last year, Elijah Cooks, was signed by
the Jacksonville Jaguars as an undrafted free agent. Cooks had a team-high 11/25 at UNLV -1 31.5
69 catches for 1,076 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2022. Wide receiver Justin
Lockhart returns and was named First Team All-Mountain West this preseason.
Lockhart had 36 catches for 578 yards and one touchdown last year. The
offensive line should be solid with a ton of starters back.
ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 3000-1
14
DEFENSE NATIONAL
Defensive coordinator Derrick Odum enters his seventh season at San Jose
State and will have quite the challenge this year trying to replace a ton of
production that exited the program. Fehoko had nine sacks last year and was
STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

a three-time First Team All-Mountain West selection before being drafted in the
fourth round by the Dallas Cowboys. He was the first player drafted out of San
Jose State since 2019.
Linebacker Kyle Harmon, who led the Spartans in tackles, is also gone. Like
Fehoko, Harmon was also a three-time First Team All-Mountain West selection.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
Defensive lineman Cade Hall had 7.5 sacks last year and was the Mountain West OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-5, ATS: 4-8, O/U: 5-7
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Defensive Player of the Year in 2020. Safety Tre Jenkins will be the leader of the
defense this year. Facing USC QB Caleb Williams is less than ideal for any defense Points Per Game 28 59 22.5 27 9/1 PORTLAND ST (-22) 21-17 W L
but especially one looking to replace the talent that San Jose State lost. Yards Per Point 13.4 36 14.9 46 9/10 at Auburn (24) 16-24 L W
Plays Per Game 68 95 9/24 W MICHIGAN (-6.5) 34-6 W W
OUTLOOK
When looking to play season win totals, the schedule can make the decision Time of Possession 28:42 94 10/1 at Wyoming (-2.5) 33-16 W W
for you. San Jose State will be an underdog in five of its first six games of the 3rd Down Conv. % 37.0% 85 39.5% 70 10/7 UNLV (-6.5) 40-7 W W
season. After wrapping up the nonconference portion of the schedule with a
night game at Toledo, San Jose State will host Air Force on a Friday night. The Total Yards Per Game 375.7 72 335.3 23 10/15 at Fresno St (-7) 10-17 L L
Spartans will be on short rest, while Air Force will have played the previous Yards Per Play 5.5 52 4.8 20 10/29 NEVADA (-24.5) 35-28 W L
Friday evening. After a Week 5 bye, San Jose State visits the conference Rush Attempts Per Game 28.5 125 11/5 COLORADO ST (-24) 28-16 W L
favorite, Boise State. The season concludes with Fresno State, San Diego State,
and a trip to UNLV. The offense this year, led by Chevan Cordeiro, should be Rush Yards Per Game 100.2 119 122.4 25 11/12 at San Diego St (-2) 27-43 L L
improved, but the defense loses too much talent to replace in one offseason. Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.5 97 3.3 8 11/19 at Utah St (1) 31-35 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 36.4 29 11/26 HAWAII (-15.5) 27-14 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.3% 61 60.2% 59 12/20 vs. E Michigan (-4) 27-41 L L

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 275.5 22 212.9 38
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.6 51 7.5 82
Turnovers 0.8 8 1.5 46

137
 UNLV HEAD COACH: BARRY ODOM (1ST)
RUNNIN REBELS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRENNAN MARION
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MICHAEL SCHERER

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #108 OF 133

31.5
Following a 5-7 season, UNLV dismissed head coach Marcus Arroyo and hired Arkansas defensive
coordinator Barry Odom to replace him. Prior to his three seasons with Arkansas, Odom was the head
coach of Missouri. Odom compiled a 25-25 record in four seasons at Missouri with a 13-19 SEC record. POWER RATING CONFERENCE RANK: #7 OF 12
“When I look at Vegas, there is one in the world,” Odom said on VSiN Primetime. “This place should
have a successful football program, and I want to be the person that consistently gets that done.”

UNLV has not been to a bowl game since 2013 and has reached just one bowl in the last 20 years. But 2023 SCHEDULE
with great football facilities and Allegiant Stadium as its home stadium, UNLV should be on the rise as DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
a program. The question is: will it happen in 2023?
9/2 BRYANT -19.5 14.5
SCHEDULE 34.25
OFFENSE
Odom initially hired veteran (and controversial) coach Bobby Petrino to be UNLV’s offensive 9/9 at Michigan 39 67
STRENGTH #103 TOUGHEST OF 133
coordinator. Only 21 days after Petrino was hired, he left to take the same position at Texas A&M.
9/16 VANDERBILT 5.5 39.5
FIELD 2.2 / -0.2
Odom then hired 35-year-old Brennan Marion as offensive coordinator. Marion is a “riser” in the
coaching world, as he was the wide receiver coach at Texas in 2022 and Pittsburgh in 2021. Pitt’s
Jordan Addison won the Biletnikoff Award, the award given to the nation’s top wide receiver, in 2021. 9/23 at UTEP
9/30 HAWAII
1
-11
30
23
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Marion has a unique tie to UNLV. He was the offensive coordinator for Howard in 2017 when the Bison
upset the Rebels as 45-point underdogs. Marion runs a unique offense called the “Go-Go” offense. It
uses two running backs and vertical threats. It will also go at a fast pace. Quarterback Doug Brumfield 10/14 at Nevada -2 26.5
is back this season. Brumfield completed 64.6% of his passes last year and rushed for 261 yards and

2023 ODDS
six touchdowns, but durability can be an issue. 10/21 COLORADO ST -4 30

The Rebels lost its leading rusher, Aidan Robbins, to BYU. Robbins rushed for 1,011 yards and nine 10/28 at Fresno St 13.5 42.5
touchdowns. UNLV’s top wide receiver, Ricky White (51 receptions, 619 yards), returns. UNLV did lose
wide receiver Kyle Williams (40 receptions, 541 yards, team-high five touchdowns) to Washington
11/4 at New Mexico -8 21
State. Additionally, Nick Williams and Jeffrey Weimer, UNLV’s third and fourth leading receivers, are 11/10 WYOMING 4 38 ODDS TO WIN
gone as well. JUCO transfer Jacob De Jesus had a big spring and should contribute this fall.
11/18 at Air Force 13.5 41.5
18-1 MOUNTAIN WEST
Pittsburgh transfer RB Vincent Davis will have a big role in the “Go-Go” two-back set. Davis has over
1,800 career rushing yards. But the offensive line could be an issue. The line lost three starters. Tackle 11/25 SAN JOSE ST 1 34.5
Daviyon McDaniel is playing in the CFL, center Leif Fautanu transferred to Arizona State and Preston
Nichols transferred to Purdue. UNLV did add guard Jalen St. John from Arkansas via the portal.

DEFENSE
ODDS TO WIN
At just 29 years old, Mike Scherer will be the defensive coordinator under Odom. Scherer played
RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 QB 5000-1
13
linebacker at Missouri when Odom was the head coach, and he coached under him the last three NATIONAL
years at Arkansas. Scherer was the linebackers coach the last two seasons.

The Rebels’ defense returns seven starters this year. On the defensive line, UNLV loses Second Team
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

All-Mountain West performer, Adam Plant. Plant, who signed with the Las Vegas Raiders as an
undrafted free agent, had a team-high eight sacks in 2022. Linebacker Austin Ajiake, the UNLV player
to make First Team All-Mountain West, signed with the Carolina Panthers as an undrafted free agent.

The back end of the secondary should be solid for the Rebels in 2023, with safeties Jonathan Baldwin
and Jordyn Morgan returning. The Rebels lost CB Nohl Williams to Cal in the portal. Williams was
rated as the 16th-best cornerback and 83rd overall prospect in the portal, according to 247 Sports.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
UNLV also added three Power Five transfers that should be contributors on the defense: LB Zavier OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 6-6
Carter (LSU), LB Jackson Woodard (Arkansas), S Jaxen Turner (Arizona). STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 24 85 29.2 79 8/27 IDAHO ST (-22.5) 52-21 W W
It has been said before, but the future is high in Vegas regarding the Rebels moving forward. Yards Per Point 13.9 54 13.6 86 9/4 IDAHO ST (-23.5) 52-7 W W
However, this season might not be the year to put all in your chips in the middle of the table. UNLV
does avoid San Diego State and Boise State in conference play but visits Fresno State and Air Force. Plays Per Game 66.1 110 9/10 at California (12) 14-20 L W
Time of Possession 28:37 96 9/17 NORTH TEXAS (-2.5) 58-27 W W
The nonconference schedule is interesting. After opening with FCS Bryant, UNLV visits Michigan. The
Wolverines are viewed as College Football Playoff contenders. In Week 3, Vanderbilt comes to Vegas. 3rd Down Conv. % 31.3% 117 37.9% 56 9/24 at Utah St (-3) 34-24 W W
The Commodores should be improved and that is likely a swing game for UNLV’s win total.
Total Yards Per Game 334.1 103 397.1 75 9/30 NEW MEXICO (-14) 31-20 W L
Lastly, the Rebels visit UTEP on September 23. The Miners are a veteran team and one of my favorite Yards Per Play 5.1 91 5.5 68 10/7 at San Jose St (6.5) 7-40 L L
win totals of the year (Over 5.5). If UNLV goes 1-3 in the nonconference part of the schedule, seven
wins will be a challenge. Colorado State, Wyoming, and San Jose State all visit Las Vegas, but all three Rush Attempts Per Game 33.6 94 10/15 AIR FORCE (10) 7-42 L L
games are considered toss-ups. With a new system on offense and some of the top players, including Rush Yards Per Game 136.4 83 167.4 83 10/22 at Notre Dame (26) 21-44 L W
three starting offensive lineman, exiting, UNLV is more likely to win five games than seven in 2023.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.1 70 4.2 64 11/5 at San Diego St (5) 10-14 L W
Pass Attempts Per Game 29.6 90 11/11 FRESNO ST (8.5) 30-37 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.7% 54 63.1% 98 11/19 at Hawaii (-11) 25-31 L L

UNDER 6
Passing Yards Per Game 197.7 104 229.7 66 11/26 NEVADA (-12.5) 27-22 W L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.7 93 7.6 90
Turnovers 1.4 54 1.8 17

138
 UTAH STATE HEAD COACH: BLAKE ANDERSON (3RD)
AGGIES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KYLE CEFALO
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOE CAUTHEN

BY TIM MURRAY STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #116 OF 133

In 2021, Blake Anderson’s first year in Logan, Utah State won 11 games, won the
Mountain West Championship, and defeated Oregon State in the LA Bowl. Last year, the
Aggies took a step back, winning just six games and losing by four touchdowns in the
First Responder Bowl. Entering 2023, Utah State returns just nine starters after a handful
POWER RATING 30 CONFERENCE RANK: #8 OF 12
of the Aggies’ top players departed via the transfer portal. The schedule will be quite
challenging as they are the only team in the conference to play all five of the preseason
top-five teams. Additionally, some regression could be on the way after Utah State won 2023 SCHEDULE
four games by less than a touchdown last year and lost zero by less than a touchdown. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/2 at Iowa 24 51.5
SCHEDULE 34.38
Quarterback Logan Bonner was lost for the season in late September, and Cooper Legas
9/9 IDAHO ST -26.5 6
STRENGTH #101 TOUGHEST OF 133
was thrust into action. Legas completed 61% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and 10

1.8 / 0.4
interceptions. Legas returns in 2023, but backup Bishop Davenport transferred to South
Alabama.
9/15 at Air Force 14.5 41.5
FIELD
Running back Calvin Tyler led the Aggies with 1,122 rushing yards and seven
9/23 JAMES MADISON 8 39.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
touchdowns. The Second Team All-Mountain West was signed by the Cincinnati Bengals as 9/30 at Connecticut 4 32
an undrafted free agent. RB Robert Briggs will assume the starting duties. Briggs rushed 10/7 COLORADO ST -2 30
for 353 yards and a touchdown last year. Legas can also utilize his legs.

2023 ODDS
10/13 FRESNO ST 11 42.5
WR Brian Cobbs had 76 receptions for 923 yards and five touchdowns last year en route
to earning Second Team All-Mountain West. Cobbs signed as an undrafted free agent 10/21 at San Jose St 6.5 34.5
with the Arizona Cardinals. Terrell Vaughn is the Aggies’ top returning receiver. Vaughn
11/4 at San Diego St 11 39
had 56 catches for 624 yards and five touchdowns. Stanford transfer Colby Bowman will
start at wide receiver. 11/11 NEVADA -5 26.5 ODDS TO WIN

11/18 BOISE ST 14.5 46

28-1 MOUNTAIN WEST
The offensive line will be a major concern. Utah State lost four starters from last year’s
unit. Left tackle Alfred Edwards, who set the Aggies record for career starts, exhausted
his eligibility. Edwards was the only Aggie to make First Team All-Mountain West in 2022.
11/24 at New Mexico -7.5 21
Additionally, right guard Weylin Lapuaho, who started all 13 games last year, transferred
to BYU. Right tackle Jacob South and center Chandler Dolphin are both gone as well.
Arizona State transfer Ralph Frias is expected to start at left tackle.
ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 4 QB 5000-1
9
DEFENSE NATIONAL
Similar to Utah State’s offense, the defense lost a lot of production from last year’s team.
Leading tackler, linebacker AJ Vongphachanh, transferred to BYU. Defensive end Daniel
Grzesiak, who led the Aggies with 8.5 sacks, transferred to Cincinnati. Defensive ends
STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

Byron Vaughns (Baylor) and Patrick Joyner (Kansas) both transferred.

In the secondary, cornerbacks Ajani Carter (Baylor) and Dominic Tatum (Washington

2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS

State) are gone as well. Safety Hunter Reynolds, who finished last year with 93 tackles,
seven pass breakups, and three interceptions, graduated. Safety Ike Larsen is the top
returner on defense. Larsen had a team-high four interceptions last season and was the
lone Utah State player named First Team All-Mountain West this preseason. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 4-9, O/U: 5-8
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 23.5 87 30.8 99 8/27 CONNECTICUT (-24) 31-20 W L
Following a 6-6 season with four close victories (seven points or less) and just nine Yards Per Point 15.3 89 12.9 107 9/3 at Alabama (42) 0-55 L L
returning starters, Utah State should be in for some regression in 2023. The Aggies open
Plays Per Game 74.9 25 9/10 WEBER ST (-6.5) 7-35 L L
the season at Iowa and are a 23-point underdog. While Iowa is the lone Power Five team
on Utah State’s schedule, the Aggies host James Madison on September 23 and visit Time of Possession 29:11 82 9/24 UNLV (3) 24-34 L L
UConn on September 30. James Madison was selected to finish first in the Sun Belt East. 3rd Down Conv. % 34.4% 101 40.1% 77 9/29 at BYU (26) 26-38 L W
UConn should be slightly improved from last year’s six-win team.
Total Yards Per Game 360.7 85 399.3 77 10/8 AIR FORCE (11.5) 34-27 W W
The Aggies are the only team in the Mountain West scheduled to play the top-five teams Yards Per Play 4.8 103 5.6 82 10/15 at Colorado St (-14) 17-13 W L
in the preseason poll (Boise State, Air Force., Fresno State, San Diego State, San Jose
Rush Attempts Per Game 42.8 14 10/22 at Wyoming (5.5) 14-28 L L
State). Utah State avoids Wyoming, Hawaii, and UNLV in conference play in 2023. With
the loss of talent, a tough schedule, and regression from close games a year ago, it Rush Yards Per Game 162.3 57 194 108 11/5 NEW MEXICO (-14.5) 27-10 W W
would be surprising if Utah State reached bowl eligibility this season. Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.8 83 4.9 111 11/12 at Hawaii (-10.5) 41-34 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 29.8 88 11/19 SAN JOSE ST (-1) 35-31 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 59.9% 73 55.1% 11 11/25 at Boise St (16.5) 23-42 L L

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 198.3 103 205.3 29 12/27 vs. Memphis (8) 10-38 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.7 94 7 53
Turnovers 1.9 116 1.3 86

139
 WYOMING HEAD COACH: CRAIG BOHL (10TH)
COWBOYS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TIM POLASEK
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JAY SAWVEL

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #84 OF 133

College football is inherently unpredictable, but it sure feels like we can pencil
Wyoming in for 6-8 wins every season. Since 2016, the Cowboys have won
eight games three times, seven games twice, and six games once, with the
exception of a 2-4 COVID year in 2020. This team never has the best talent but
POWER RATING 38 CONFERENCE RANK: #5 OF 12

almost always has a good defense and a high floor. It is hard to believe that
this is already Craig Bohl’s 10th season in Laramie, and it looks like another 2023 SCHEDULE
bowl berth is in the works. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 TEXAS TECH 12.5 54
SCHEDULE 35.18
OFFENSE
Wyoming doesn’t pull any punches on offense. The Cowboys are going to run 9/9 PORTLAND ST -27.5 14
STRENGTH #93 TOUGHEST OF 133
the ball, be physical, and play to the elevation. Laramie is upwards of 7,100
feet above sea level, so it makes sense to try and tire out the other team. It
doesn’t always make for the sexiest or most exciting profile. The Cowboys have
9/16 at Texas 27.5 62.5
FIELD 3 / -0.1
been running the ball at a steady rate since 2018, averaging 4.8 to 5.1 yards
9/23 APPALACHIAN ST -3 37.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
per carry. They haven’t eclipsed 200 passing yards per game since 2016, when 9/30 NEW MEXICO -20.5 21
some guy named Josh Allen was on the roster. 10/7 FRESNO ST 1.5 42.5

2023 ODDS
I can’t imagine Andrew Peasley will lead that sort of offense, but Peasley’s job 10/14 at Air Force 7 41.5
is to keep defenses honest and run around a bit. Overall, the Cowboys only had 10/28 at Boise St 11 46
an 11/12 TD/INT ratio, so it will be about running the rock. Dawaiian McNeely
had 5.7 yards per carry last season, and Harrison Waylee transferred in from 11/3 COLORADO ST -11.5 30
Northern Illinois with nearly 2,000 yards to his name. As long as both guys 11/10 at UNLV -4 31.5 ODDS TO WIN
stay healthy, Wyoming will have a physical back in McNeely and a quicker
11/18 HAWAII -18 23
12-1 MOUNTAIN WEST
back in Waylee as a nice tandem.
11/25 at Nevada -8.5 26.5
DEFENSE
Wyoming’s defensive numbers have been solid basically since 2016, allowing
4.7 to 5.4 yards per play with 17.5 to 23.9 points per game. The last two
seasons, the Wyoming defense has had more issues, but the top six tacklers ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 QB 3000-1
15
are all back, including tackle machine Easton Gibbs, who had 121 stops last NATIONAL
season. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel has 10 starters back, including
several sophomores, so this was a young defense last year. STARTERS DEFENSE: 10
CHAMPIONSHIP

The Cowboys did face 900 plays last season, and the offense only ran 783,
so a little more balance would help those guys get a breather every now
and then. Most of Wyoming’s 37 sacks return, and that was the most for the
team in at least 15 years, so that could give the secondary more than just six 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
interceptions. As usual, the defense provides a high floor, and the offense will OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 6-7
determine the ceiling. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 20.3 106 25.1 49 8/27 at Illinois (14) 6-38 L L
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 15.6 94 15.5 31 9/3 TULSA (7) 40-37 W W
Wyoming does play Boise State and Air Force on the road, but the rest of the
conference schedule isn’t bad at all. We’ll find out a lot about the Cowboys Plays Per Game 60.3 129 9/10 N COLORADO (-23.5) 33-10 W L
with a Week 1 visit from Texas Tech, which is all kinds of interesting at War Time of Possession 28:30 99 9/16 AIR FORCE (16.5) 17-14 W W
Memorial Stadium to open the season. Appalachian State also makes the trek 3rd Down Conv. % 33.8% 106 39.4% 69 9/24 at BYU (20.5) 24-38 L W
from Boone. While App State is the highest in elevation east of the Mississippi, Total Yards Per Game 315.3 114 389.3 68 10/1 SAN JOSE ST (2.5) 16-33 L L
7,100 and 3,300 are not the same number. My projection for Wyoming is 6.6
wins, and the market line is 6.5. Imagine that. I’d lean slightly to the Over if Yards Per Play 5.2 79 5.4 55 10/8 at New Mexico (-3.5) 27-14 W W
forced to pick. Rush Attempts Per Game 36 67 10/22 UTAH ST (-5.5) 28-14 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 184.1 36 165.3 82 10/29 at Hawaii (-11.5) 27-20 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 20 4.5 92 11/12 at Colorado St (-8.5) 14-13 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 22.8 125 11/19 BOISE ST (14.5) 17-20 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 50.0% 123 61.7% 83 11/25 at Fresno St (14) 0-30 L L

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 131.3 125 224.1 54 12/30 vs. Ohio U (3) 27-30 L T
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.7 121 6.8 34
Turnovers 1.3 42 0.9 120

140
pac-12
betting preview
Caleb Williams, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, returns to quarterback USC and plays the role of college football’s biggest star. The Trojans are fit for
Hollywood, with coach Lincoln Riley directing a high-payroll cast with soaring expectations. USC was 11-1 and a win away from the four-team playoff last
season before falling to Utah in the Pac-12 championship game in Las Vegas. The Utes, who have lost back-to-back Rose Bowls, bring back quarterback
Cameron Rising. Veteran quarterbacks are a theme in this conference, as Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. return for league title
contenders. The Pac-12 is loaded with quality teams and star power, at least until USC and UCLA depart for the Big Ten in 2024.

The conference welcomes three new coaches, none more hyped nationally than Deion Sanders. “Coach Prime” cleaned house at Colorado and turned
over the roster from top to bottom through the transfer portal, yet oddsmakers don’t believe the hype and set the Buffaloes’ win total at 3.5. Arizona State’s
Kenny Dillingham, 33, is the youngest head coach of a Power Five program. The David Shaw era finally ended at Stanford, which hired Troy Taylor to launch
a rebuilding job. The conference has a surplus of big-name coaches, elite quarterbacks and fascinating storylines, but will it produce a playoff team for
the first time since 2017?

This should be the Trojans’ year, assuming Williams stays healthy and the defense improves. Heisman repeats are extremely rare, but Williams is the
obvious favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. USC is the league favorite at +190, according to DraftKings, with Oregon (+300), Washington
(+320), Utah (+600), Oregon State (11-1) and UCLA (14-1) in the hunt. The Trojans are getting 16-1 odds to win the national championship and have a
legitimate shot if Williams remains a dynamic playmaker and resembles the college version of Patrick Mahomes.

2023 PROJECTED STANDINGS (BASED ON STEVE MAKINEN RATINGS)

2023 Schedule Strength All Games Conference Games DraftKings
Team SM PR (Rank) PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's O/U
USC 62 45.31 (38) 9.8 2.2 7.3 1.7 10
OREGON 59.5 42.7 (63) 9.4 2.6 6.8 2.2 9.5
UTAH 59 48.27 (13) 8.8 3.2 6.4 2.6 8.5
WASHINGTON 58 46.92 (23) 8.9 3.1 6.3 2.7 9
OREGON ST 53.5 44.96 (42) 8.4 3.6 5.6 3.4 8.5
UCLA 51.5 42.46 (64) 8.2 3.8 5.5 3.5 8.5
WASHINGTON ST 46 42.23 (66) 6.5 5.5 4.3 4.7 6.5
ARIZONA 43 45.53 (34) 5.1 6.9 3.0 6.0 5
CALIFORNIA 45.5 49.13 (5) 5.0 7.0 3.0 6.0 5
ARIZONA ST 42.5 46.42 (26) 4.7 7.3 2.8 6.2 5
COLORADO 34.5 48.46 (11) 2.6 9.4 1.6 7.4 3.5
STANFORD 34 48.3 (12) 2.4 9.6 1.3 7.7 3

141
 ARIZONA HEAD COACH: JEDD FISCH (3RD)
WILDCATS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRENNAN CARROLL
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOHNNY NANSEN

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #65 OF 133

Entering last season, Arizona had lost 23 of its last 24 games, but coach Jedd
Fisch was eyeing a turnaround after going 1-11 in his first year in Tucson. The
Wildcats got off to an encouraging start by beating San Diego State 38-20
POWER RATING 43 CONFERENCE RANK: #9 OF 12

as 6-point road ‘dogs in the season opener. While much progress was made
in Fisch’s second year, Arizona fizzled against a tough Pac-12 schedule and 2023 SCHEDULE
finished 5-7. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
SCHEDULE 45.53
9/2 N ARIZONA -26.5 18.5
OFFENSE
9/9 at Mississippi St 10.5 50.5
STRENGTH #34 TOUGHEST OF 133
Fisch, a former NFL assistant who was quarterbacks coach for the Patriots
in 2020, found the right guy to run his offense last year. Washington State
transfer Jayden de Laura was an immediate upgrade and passed for 3,685
9/16 UTEP -15 30
FIELD 1.8 / -0.5
yards and 25 touchdowns. The offense made a major leap from 17.2 points
9/23 at Stanford -7 34
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
9/30 WASHINGTON 13 58
per game in 2021 to 30.8 points per game, as the Wildcats scored 20 points
10/7 at USC 21.5 62
or more in all nine conference games. Eight starters are returning this year.
De Laura’s top target is Jacob Cowing, who transferred from UTEP and totaled
85 receptions for 1,034 yards and seven touchdowns. Cowing and Tetairoa
10/14 at Washington St
10/28 OREGON ST
6.5
8.5
46
53.5
2023 ODDS
McMillan, who had 18.0 yards per reception and eight touchdowns, lead a deep 11/4 UCLA 7 51.5
group of receivers. Senior running back Michael Wiley returns after leading the ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Colorado -5 34.5
team with 771 yards. The bottom line is the offense was not the problem last 100-1 PAC 12
year and should be better in 2023. 11/18 UTAH 14.5 59
11/25 at Arizona St 2.5 42.5
DEFENSE
With eight starters returning a year ago, Arizona still allowed 36.5 points
per game and surrendered 45 points or more in each game of a four-game ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 400-1
11
midseason losing streak against Oregon, Washington, USC and Utah. Only NATIONAL
three starters return this season, but that’s not necessarily bad news because
Fisch and his staff hit the transfer portal for reinforcements. Senior defensive
STARTERS DEFENSE: 3
CHAMPIONSHIP

end Taylor Upshaw, a transfer from Michigan, should be an impact player

along with sophomore linebacker Jacob Manu. It’s tough to say if the defense
will improve, but it’s unlikely to improve enough.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OUTLOOK OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 7-5
Fisch’s first year was a disaster, but he penned a signature win in 2022, a 34- STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 30.8 39 37.3 125 9/3 at San Diego St (6) 38-20 W W
28 victory over UCLA as a 20-point ‘dog in Pasadena. After getting humiliated
Yards Per Point 15.2 88 12.7 112 9/10 MISSISSIPPI ST (12.5) 17-39 L L
in the rivalry with Arizona State and losing the previous two meetings by
Plays Per Game 70 67 9/17 N DAKOTA ST (3) 31-28 W W
a combined score of 108-22, Arizona defeated the Sun Devils, 38-35. The
Time of Possession 28:00 113 9/24 at California (3.5) 31-49 L L
Wildcats topped their season win total of 3 posted at DraftKings, but the
3rd Down Conv. % 41.9% 37 48.4% 125 10/1 COLORADO (-18) 43-20 W W
win total is now 5. While the schedule presents a few winnable games in
Total Yards Per Game 468.6 15 473.3 125 10/8 OREGON (13.5) 22-49 L L
September, there are no soft spots at home the rest of the way. With five wins
seemingly the ceiling, look Under or pass. Yards Per Play 6.7 10 6.5 122 10/15 at Washington (14.5) 39-49 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 28.7 124 10/29 USC (14) 37-45 L W
Rush Yards Per Game 142.1 74 202.5 115 11/5 at Utah (18) 20-45 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.9 30 5.5 125 11/12 at UCLA (20) 34-28 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 39.2 15 11/19 WASHINGTON ST (4) 20-31 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.0% 65 69.2% 127 11/25 ARIZONA ST (-4) 38-35 W L

UNDER 5
Passing Yards Per Game 326.5 4 270.8 112
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.3 15 7.6 92
Turnovers 1.9 113 1.4 70

142
 ARIZONA STATE HEAD COACH: KENNY DILLINGHAM (1ST)
SUN DEVILS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BEAU BALDWIN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRIAN WARD

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #66 OF 133

Out with the old (Herm Edwards) and in with 33-year-old Kenny Dillingham as
Arizona State’s new coach. Dillingham has worked under some sharp offensive
head coaches and shows promise as a program leader and recruiter. The
POWER RATING 42.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #10 OF 12

Sun Devils are facing a tough road through the Pac-12, but do not underrate
Dillingham and his chances of overachieving this year. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 8/31 S UTAH -29.5 15.5
SCHEDULE 46.42
It appears Dillingham’s first starting quarterback will be Drew Pyne, who was a
9/9 OKLAHOMA ST 3 47.5
STRENGTH #26 TOUGHEST OF 133
highly-touted recruit at Notre Dame and had 22 touchdown passes in 10 starts
for the Irish last season. Dillingham’s future starter at QB is expected to be
five-star recruit Jaden Rashada, who backed out of a commitment to Florida.
9/16 FRESNO ST -2 42.5
FIELD 2.3 / 0
Dillingham is using transfers to rebuild the offensive depth chart, adding
9/23 USC
9/30 at California
17.5
5.5
62
45.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Sacramento State running back Cameron Skattebo, UNLV center Leif Fautanu
10/7 COLORADO -10.5 34.5
and several others. The line looks strong and led by veterans, so this offense

2023 ODDS
could be surprisingly good. Dillingham, a 2012 graduate of Arizona State, 10/21 at Washington 18 58
coached under Mike Norvell at Florida State and Memphis and Gus Malzahn 10/28 WASHINGTON ST 1 46
at Auburn before becoming the offensive coordinator at Oregon last year. 11/4 at Utah 20 59
He hired Beau Baldwin, a former head coach at Eastern Washington, as his ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at UCLA 11.5 51.5
offensive coordinator.
11/18 OREGON 15 59.5
120-1 PAC 12

DEFENSE 11/25 ARIZONA -2.5 43

Dillingham and his staff, including new defensive coordinator Brian Ward from
Washington State, brought in more than 30 transfers. The defense returns
only five starters but adds transfers from Tennessee, Texas, Michigan State, ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 400-1
12
Wisconsin and Washington State and many of those players will contribute or NATIONAL
start immediately. The Sun Devils were involved in a lot of high-scoring games
last season, highlighted by a 45-38 win over Washington, and that theme
STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

should continue until this defense matures.

OUTLOOK
With eight home games, Arizona State will have plenty of opportunities to 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
get to five or six wins. The Sun Devils open at home against Southern Utah, OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-9, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 5-7
Oklahoma State, Fresno State and USC, giving Dillingham a realistic shot to STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 24.8 78 34 113 9/1 N ARIZONA (-25.5) 40-3 W W
be 3-0 before facing the Trojans. The other league home games are against
Yards Per Point 15.5 91 13.2 99 9/10 at Oklahoma St (12) 17-34 L L
Colorado, Washington State, Oregon and Arizona. Cal is probably the only
Plays Per Game 68.1 94 9/17 E MICHIGAN (-20.5) 21-30 L L
winnable road game in conference play. The win total (5) is depressed
Time of Possession 30:12 59 9/24 UTAH (16) 13-34 L L
because of last year’s 3-9 debacle. Edwards was fired after an embarrassing
3rd Down Conv. % 40.9% 40 52.3% 130 10/1 at USC (24.5) 25-42 L W
loss to Eastern Michigan, and NCAA penalties for recruiting violations were a
Total Yards Per Game 384.3 65 449.8 116 10/8 WASHINGTON (13.5) 45-38 W W
distraction. Dillingham is young, yet he’s rebuilding the right way and has a
potential surprise team with a good shot to reach six wins. Yards Per Play 5.6 47 6.2 118 10/22 at Stanford (3) 14-15 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 30.5 115 10/29 at Colorado (-12.5) 42-34 W L
Rush Yards Per Game 123.3 91 204 119 11/5 UCLA (11) 36-50 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4 71 5.5 124 11/12 at Washington St (9.5) 18-28 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 35.1 36 11/19 OREGON ST (7.5) 7-31 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 66.6% 13 60.1% 57 11/25 at Arizona (4) 35-38 L W

OVER 5
Passing Yards Per Game 261 37 245.8 91
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 56 7.2 63
Turnovers 1.5 83 0.9 124

143
 CALIFORNIA HEAD COACH: JUSTIN WILCOX (7TH)
GOLDEN BEARS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JAKE SPAVITAL
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: PETER SIRMON

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #56 OF 133

Entering his seventh year in Berkeley, coach Justin Wilcox needs to turn around
a Cal program in decline. The Golden Bears are a combined 10-18 the past
three years. Wilcox is an outstanding defensive coach, but he has been unable
POWER RATING 45.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #8 OF 12

to find a star quarterback, and Cal’s offense will remain one of the worst in a
conference stacked with explosive offenses and veteran quarterbacks. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/2 at North Texas -6.5 36.5
SCHEDULE 49.13
Wilcox has had solid quarterbacks — four-year starter Chase Garbers preceded
9/9 AUBURN 4 52
STRENGTH #5 TOUGHEST OF 133
Jack Plummer last year — but needs one to take the offense to a higher level.
TCU transfer Sam Jackson, who is mobile with a live arm, will compete against
North Carolina State transfer Ben Finley. The job opened when Plummer, who
9/16 IDAHO -15 33
FIELD 2.4 / -0.2
passed for 21 touchdowns, opted to transfer to Louisville. Aaron Rodgers and
9/23 at Washington
9/30 ARIZONA ST
15.5
-5.5
58
42.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Jared Goff are not walking back through the door. The Bears do return their
10/7 OREGON ST 5.5 53.5
leading rusher, Jaydn Ott, and leading receiver, Jeremiah Hunter, and four
10/14 at Utah 17 59
starters return for a good line. There is optimism surrounding the return of
coordinator Jake Spavital, who was offensive coordinator for the Bears under 10/28 USC 14.5 62
2023 ODDS
Sonny Dykes in 2016 before becoming the Texas State head coach. 11/4 at Oregon 17.5 59.5
11/11 WASHINGTON ST -2 46 ODDS TO WIN
DEFENSE
11/18 at Stanford -9.5 34
80-1 PAC 12
Nine starters return for Wilcox, who’s among the few defensive-minded head
coaches in a league full of offensive wizards like USC’s Lincoln Riley, UCLA’s 11/25 at UCLA 9 51.5
Chip Kelly and Washington’s Kalen DeBoer. Cal will count on two veterans
— tackle Brett Johnson and linebacker Jackson Sirmon — to lead a unit that
allowed 27.8 points per game, an unusually high number for a Wilcox defense. ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 500-1
17
NATIONAL
OUTLOOK
Aside from a home game against Idaho, the schedule is brutally tough. Cal will
STARTERS DEFENSE: 9
CHAMPIONSHIP

face all of the Pac-12’s power teams (USC, Utah, Washington, Oregon, Oregon
State, UCLA) and miss two of the weakest teams (Arizona, Colorado). The Bears
open at North Texas before hosting Auburn. Last year, Cal went 4-8 with home
victories over UC Davis, UNLV, Arizona and Stanford, and only the Cardinal 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
return to the schedule. Wilcox is 3-1 against Stanford in the “Big Game” the OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 7-5, O/U: 6-4
past four years, so he’s got that going for him. Under the total of 5.5 was an STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 23 91 29.2 79 9/3 CAL DAVIS (-14) 34-13 W W
easy call last year, and Under 5 is the obvious call this year. The quarterback
Yards Per Point 15.7 97 14.8 49 9/10 UNLV (-12) 20-14 W L
position is a big question mark, and the schedule has only one soft spot. A
Plays Per Game 67.7 96 9/17 at Notre Dame (13.5) 17-24 L W
five-win season seems to be the ceiling.
Time of Possession 28:35 97 9/24 ARIZONA (-3.5) 49-31 W W
3rd Down Conv. % 33.8% 105 39.1% 65 10/1 at Washington St (4) 9-28 L L
Total Yards Per Game 360 87 433.2 106 10/15 at Colorado (-15) 13-20 L L
Yards Per Play 5.3 73 5.8 96 10/22 WASHINGTON (7.5) 21-28 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 25.9 128 10/29 OREGON (16.5) 24-42 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 92 125 150.3 59 11/5 at USC (21) 35-41 L W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.6 96 4.1 62 11/12 at Oregon St (11) 10-38 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 39.2 15 11/19 STANFORD (-4.5) 27-20 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 62.2% 50 65.9% 120 11/25 UCLA (11.5) 28-35 L W

UNDER 5
Passing Yards Per Game 268 30 282.9 125 8/27 at Fla Atlantic (7) 13-43 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.8 83 7.6 94
Turnovers 1 16 1.5 62

144
 COLORADO HEAD COACH: DEION SANDERS (1ST)
BUFFALOES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SEAN LEWIS
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CHARLES KELLY

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #96 OF 133

The national media might buy the Deion Sanders story, but sharp bettors don’t
believe the hype. “Coach Prime” talks about winning a Pac-12 championship
while oddsmakers are doubting Colorado’s chances of winning four games.
POWER RATING 34.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #11 OF 12

Sanders is using transfers in a total roster makeover that he thinks will be a

boom and many others think will be a bust because of a lack of depth. The 2023 SCHEDULE
Buffaloes, 1-11 a year ago, will likely field another losing team, but no other DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
losing team will be more fascinating to fade or follow. 9/2 at TCU 21 53
SCHEDULE 48.46
9/9 NEBRASKA 8.5 46
STRENGTH #11 TOUGHEST OF 133
OFFENSE
Shedeur Sanders, the coach’s son, passed for 70 touchdowns in two seasons
at Jackson State. How good he truly is will go a long way in determining this
9/16 COLORADO ST
9/23 at Oregon 28.5
-7.5 30
59.5
FIELD 2.8 / -0.4
team’s success. Is Sanders a legit NFL prospect or a product of his dad’s hype 9/30 USC 25 62
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

machine? The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, and Sanders will be a
10/7 at Arizona St 10.5 42.5
mid-level quarterback in his debut season in the Pac-12. There is no doubt he’s
10/13 STANFORD -3.5 34
surrounded by high-level talent.
10/28 at UCLA 20 51.5
2023 ODDS
Houston transfer running back Alton McCaskill is a key addition, and wide 11/4 OREGON ST 16 53.5
receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter is a legit first-round NFL prospect who could ODDS TO WIN
11/11 ARIZONA 5 43
be the best player on the field in several games. The line looks good enough
11/17 at Washington St 15 46
140-1 PAC 12
on paper and transfers are filling the holes. The best coach on the new staff is
probably offensive coordinator Sean Lewis, who was the head coach at Kent 11/25 at Utah 28.5 59
State. The Buffaloes have lots of doubters, but there are lots of reasons to
believe in their offense.
ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 300-1
8
DEFENSE NATIONAL
The number of returning starters is irrelevant with this team, especially with
the defense. The new staff recruited edge rushers from Arkansas, Florida State,
STARTERS DEFENSE: 3
CHAMPIONSHIP

Mississippi and West Virginia. Linebacker Demouy Kennedy and defensive

back Jahquez Robinson were highly-ranked recruits at Alabama, and middle
linebacker LaVonta Bentley is from Clemson. Hunter, from Jackson State, is a
two-way star who will start at one corner. The defense is improved across the 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
board, yet most of the pieces are new and the unit needs time to develop. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 1-11, ATS: 2-10, O/U: 9-3
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 15.4 125 44.5 131 9/2 TCU (13.5) 13-38 L L
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 18.3 120 11.5 129 9/10 at Air Force (17.5) 10-41 L L
Where are the soft spots on the schedule? Colorado State, Stanford and
Plays Per Game 64 123 9/17 at Minnesota (28) 7-49 L L
Arizona are opponents the Buffaloes need to beat at home. Colorado will not
Time of Possession 27:23 117 9/24 UCLA (22.5) 17-45 L L
be favored in any of its road games against TCU, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA,
3rd Down Conv. % 31.7% 116 53.2% 131 10/1 at Arizona (18) 20-43 L L
Washington State and Utah. It’s not absurd and out of the question to think the
Total Yards Per Game 282.3 127 513.8 130 10/15 CALIFORNIA (15) 20-13 W W
Buffaloes can win four, five or even six games, but the reality is “Coach Prime”
will probably have to accept 3-9 and find ways to put a positive spin on it. Yards Per Play 4.4 122 7.2 130 10/22 at Oregon St (23) 9-42 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 32.1 105 10/29 ARIZONA ST (12.5) 34-42 L W
Rush Yards Per Game 109.4 111 249.1 130 11/5 OREGON (31) 10-49 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.4 104 6.3 128 11/11 at USC (34.5) 17-55 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 30 85 11/19 at Washington (30.5) 7-54 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 49.7% 125 67.1% 125 11/26 UTAH (30) 21-63 L L

UNDER 3.5
Passing Yards Per Game 172.9 117 264.7 105
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.8 119 8.7 126
Turnovers 1.8 111 0.9 120

145
 OREGON HEAD COACH: DAN LANNING (2ND)
DUCKS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JUNIOR ADAMS / WILL STEIN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CHRIS HAMPTON / TOSH LUPOI

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #9 OF 133

First impressions are not everything. The Dan Lanning era at Oregon started
with a disaster, a 49-3 loss to Georgia. Lanning, a former defensive coordinator
under Kirby Smith with the Bulldogs, turned things around quickly with an
POWER RATING 59.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #2 OF 12

eight-game winning streak. The Ducks went 9-3 in the regular season, slipping
Over their win total of 8.5, and beat North Carolina 28-27 in the Holiday Bowl. 2023 SCHEDULE
Lanning has an experienced team returning, but the Pac-12 schedule is a little DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
tougher this time. 9/2 PORTLAND ST -49 14
SCHEDULE 42.70
9/9 at Texas Tech -3.5 54
STRENGTH #63 TOUGHEST OF 133
OFFENSE
The top defenses in the SEC are unforgiving, and the Pac-12 is a different world
that tilts more toward the offenses, as Bo Nix found out in his first year at
9/16 HAWAII -40 23
FIELD 3.2 / 0.5
Oregon. Nix transferred from Auburn, where he struggled to find consistency,
9/23 COLORADO
9/30 at Stanford
-28.5
-24.5
34.5
34
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

and suddenly started to fulfill his promise as a quarterback. Nix completed 72

10/14 at Washington 0.5 58
percent of his passes with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also

2023 ODDS
running for 510 yards and 14 TDs. He’s one of eight returning starters, along 10/21 WASHINGTON ST -17 46
with leading rushers Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington and top receiver Troy 10/28 at Utah 2.5 59
Franklin. 11/4 CALIFORNIA -17.5 45.5

+300
11/11 USC -0.5 62 ODDS TO WIN
The offensive line loses four veterans, but Lanning hit the transfer portal for PAC 12
reinforcements, and the line still ranks among the league’s strongest. The 11/18 at Arizona St -15 42.5
Ducks, who averaged 501 yards and 38.8 points per game, scored 41 points 11/24 OREGON ST -9.5 53.5
or more in each game of an eight-game winning streak. The numbers are not
as impressive as they look because Nix and the Ducks feasted on several bad
defenses after getting dominated by Georgia. ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 40-1
16
NATIONAL
DEFENSE
Lanning has SEC roots and is attempting to build a more physical defense. The
STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

Ducks had difficulty stopping the run and allowed 37 points to Washington and
38 to Oregon State in late-season losses. Eight starters are back, led by senior
edge rusher Brandon Dorlus. The downside is Lanning loses star linebackers
Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 10-3, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 7-6
OUTLOOK STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 36.2 12 28.5 74 9/3 vs. Georgia (16) 3-49 L L
The Ducks play five road games and probably will be big favorites in two
Yards Per Point 13.6 40 14 72 9/10 E WASHINGTON (-27.5) 70-14 W W
(against Stanford and Arizona State) and underdogs at Washington and Utah.
Plays Per Game 71.3 56 9/17 BYU (-4) 41-20 W W
A September 9 trip to Texas Tech could be trouble because the Red Raiders
Time of Possession 30:40 49 9/24 at Washington St (-6) 44-41 W L
are Big 12 title contenders. Oregon could sweep its home schedule due to the
3rd Down Conv. % 43.9% 31 48.1% 123 10/1 STANFORD (-17.5) 45-27 W W
only tough games coming against USC, Washington State and Oregon State. It
Total Yards Per Game 491.9 8 398.4 76 10/8 at Arizona (-13.5) 49-22 W W
can be argued Lanning has a 10-win team on paper, but the same can be said
about USC, Washington and Utah, so this projection is more of a lean to 9-3 Yards Per Play 6.9 5 5.8 100 10/22 UCLA (-7) 45-30 W W
because the Ducks seem vulnerable to slipping up in a few tricky spots on the Rush Attempts Per Game 38.3 48 10/29 at California (-16.5) 42-24 W W
schedule. Rush Yards Per Game 211.8 13 127.9 32 11/5 at Colorado (-31) 49-10 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.5 5 4.3 73 11/12 WASHINGTON (-12) 34-37 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.6 54 11/19 UTAH (-1) 20-17 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 70.1% 1 64.2% 108 11/26 at Oregon St (1.5) 34-38 L L

UNDER 9.5
Passing Yards Per Game 280.2 20 270.5 110 12/28 vs. North Carolina (-13.5) 28-27 W L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.6 11 7.3 72
Turnovers 1 16 1.6 38

146
 OREGON STATE HEAD COACH: JONATHAN SMITH (6TH)
BEAVERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRIAN LINDGREN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TRENT BRAY

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #22 OF 133

Most of the media hype will focus on USC, Washington, Utah and Oregon, but
don’t overlook an under-the-radar Oregon State team. Jonathan Smith has
been a magician in Corvallis while coaching the Beavers from 2-10 in his first
POWER RATING 53.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #5 OF 12

year to 10-3 in his fifth year. Smith draws a favorable schedule and a shot to
crack the league’s top four. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/3 at San Jose St -16.5 34.5
SCHEDULE 44.96
It’s not a lock that Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei will win the quarterback
9/9 CAL DAVIS -19 37.5
STRENGTH #42 TOUGHEST OF 133
competition, but he’s the favorite over sophomore Ben Gulbranson. The higher
FIELD 3.3 / -0.1
ceiling belongs to Uiagalelei, who went 22-6 as the Tigers’ starter yet was 9/16 SAN DIEGO ST -17.5 39
inconsistent and flopped in some big games. Gulbranson went 7-1 in eight 9/23 at Washington St -4.5 46
starts last year, but he passed for only nine touchdowns while the running 9/29 UTAH 2.5 59
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

attack carried the offense. Eight starters are back, highlighted by running back
10/7 at California -5.5 45.5
Damien Martinez, who finished with 982 yards and seven touchdowns on the
10/14 UCLA -5 51.5
ground in what amounted to about a half a season of action. Starting with the
sixth game, Martinez recorded six straight games with 100 or more yards. The 10/28 at Arizona -8.5 43
2023 ODDS
driving force for the offense will be a line that ranks in the nation’s top 10, 11/4 at Colorado -16 34.5
with four returning starters who are all juniors and seniors. If Uiagalelei turns 11/11 STANFORD -23 34 ODDS TO WIN
into the real deal, the Beavers could top last year’s 32.2 points per game.
11/18 WASHINGTON 1 58
11-1 PAC 12

DEFENSE 11/24 at Oregon 9.5 59.5

Nine starters returned last year, and the defense lived up to expectations
by allowing 20 points per game and limiting USC to 17 points. There might
be a slight decline with only five starters coming back, but the Beavers are ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 100-1
13
experienced up front and will remain strong enough. NATIONAL

OUTLOOK
STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

Over the win total (6.5) was an easier call a year ago, and the Beavers won
nine due to dramatic comeback victories over Fresno State, Stanford and
Oregon. With three-point losses to USC and Washington, Oregon State was
competitive in 11-of-12 games before blowing out Florida, 30-3, in the Las 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
Vegas Bowl. OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 10-3, ATS: 11-2, O/U: 7-6
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 29.3 50 19.3 11 9/3 BOISE ST (-1.5) 34-17 W W
Yards Per Point 13.2 28 17.5 12 9/10 at Fresno St (1) 35-32 W W
The schedule is softer this year without the Trojans. The Beavers, who went
Plays Per Game 65.5 114 9/17 MONTANA ST (-17.5) 68-28 W W
12-1 at home the past two years, host UCLA, Utah and Washington. It’s not
Time of Possession 31:56 22 9/24 USC (6) 14-17 L W
safe to assume Oregon State will beat the Utes and Huskies in Corvallis, and
3rd Down Conv. % 40.4% 45 39.3% 67 10/1 at Utah (10.5) 16-42 L L
the Beavers have not won the “Civil War” game at Oregon since 2007. The call
Total Yards Per Game 384.7 64 338.7 24 10/8 at Stanford (-4.5) 28-27 W L
to go Over 8.5 is only a lean this year, with 9-3 slightly more likely than 8-4.
Smith has been a consistent overachiever. Yards Per Play 5.9 39 5.1 35 10/15 WASHINGTON ST (-3) 24-10 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 39.9 29 10/22 COLORADO (-23) 42-9 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 195.5 24 103.8 11 11/4 at Washington (4.5) 21-24 L W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.9 32 3.7 29 11/12 CALIFORNIA (-11) 38-10 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 24.4 122 11/19 at Arizona St (-7.5) 31-7 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.1% 64 58.3% 34 11/26 OREGON (-1.5) 38-34 W W

OVER 8.5
Passing Yards Per Game 189.2 110 234.8 76 12/17 vs. Florida (-7.5) 30-3 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.7 44 6.4 16
Turnovers 1.5 72 1.2 100

147
 STANFORD HEAD COACH: TROY TAYLOR (1ST)
CARDINAL
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TROY TAYLOR
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BOBBY APRIL III

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #98 OF 133

Last season was called a make-or-break proposition for coach David Shaw, who
was a broken man after a 3-9 finish. Shaw went 14-28 in his last four years
and resigned. New coach Troy Taylor was a big winner at Sacramento State and
POWER RATING 34 CONFERENCE RANK: #12 OF 12

brings a fresh offensive philosophy. But Taylor is facing a total rebuild with
only six returning starters and no proven quarterback. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/1 at Hawaii -8.5 23
SCHEDULE 48.30
Running back EJ Smith, son of former Dallas Cowboys great Emmitt Smith,
9/9 at USC 30.5 62
STRENGTH #12 TOUGHEST OF 133
could be the star Taylor’s offense needs. Smith was off to a hot start last year,
carrying 30 times for 206 yards before going down to a season-ending injury
in the second game. Taylor is a run-first coach, and that’s good because Smith
9/16 SACRAMENTO ST 5.5 40.5
FIELD 1.6 / -0.1
and backup Casey Filkins are his best players.
9/23 ARIZONA 7 43
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
9/30 OREGON 24.5 59.5
10/13 at Colorado 3.5 34.5
The quarterback competition is apparently wide open with freshman Myles

2023 ODDS
Jackson, sophomore Ari Patu, sophomore Ashton Daniels and Syracuse transfer 10/21 UCLA 16 51.5
Justin Lamson in the mix. The bad news for Taylor is the offensive line requires 10/28 WASHINGTON 22.5 58
a total rebuild. Stanford won three games last year and averaged 15.5 points 11/4 at Washington St 15 46
in back-to-back victories over Notre Dame (16-14) and Arizona State (15-14). ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Oregon St 23 53.5
The offense could be dismal, though Taylor has a track record of success, so he
11/18 CALIFORNIA 9.5 45.5
250-1 PAC 12
provides some hope.
11/25 NOTRE DAME 23.5 58.5
DEFENSE
Sophomore linebacker David Bailey is one of three returning starters and
will lead a unit that yielded 32.2 points and 224 rushing yards per game. ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 3 1000-1
6
The Cardinal allowed 40 points or more in five conference games. While most NATIONAL
teams are rebuilding through the transfer portal, Stanford is in a different
situation and lost the transfer game in the offseason.
STARTERS DEFENSE: 3
CHAMPIONSHIP

OUTLOOK
The season opener on September 1 at Hawaii, which is picked to finish 10th in
the Mountain West, will tell a lot about where Stanford is headed. The Cardinal 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
will get blown out at USC in the second game before hosting Sacramento State OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-9, ATS: 2-10, O/U: 6-5
and Arizona, so it’s possible Taylor could win three games in September. It’s STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 19.5 109 34.2 115 9/3 COLGATE (-40) 41-10 W L
also possible he could be 1-3 or 0-4 and headed for a disaster. Stanford’s other
Yards Per Point 17.9 118 13.3 97 9/10 USC (9.5) 28-41 L L
opportunities to get a win will come against Colorado and Cal. This is all about
Plays Per Game 73.2 38 9/24 at Washington (14) 22-40 L L
Taylor, who should eventually prove to be a great hire, and how quickly he
Time of Possession 30:05 61 10/1 at Oregon (17.5) 27-45 L L
can develop an inexperienced roster that has the least talent in the Pac-12. It’s
3rd Down Conv. % 37.4% 79 35.3% 34 10/8 OREGON ST (4.5) 27-28 L W
tempting to bet on Taylor to go Over a low win total, but he needs more talent
Total Yards Per Game 349.3 95 454.6 119 10/15 at Notre Dame (16.5) 16-14 W W
and time.
Yards Per Play 4.8 108 6.7 126 10/22 ARIZONA ST (-3) 15-14 W L
Rush Attempts Per Game 31.6 110 10/29 at UCLA (16.5) 13-38 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 101.7 118 231.3 127 11/5 WASHINGTON ST (3) 14-52 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.2 118 6.3 130 11/12 at Utah (24) 7-42 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 38 21 11/19 at California (4.5) 20-27 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 60.1% 72 58.3% 36 11/26 BYU (6.5) 26-35 L L

UNDER 3
Passing Yards Per Game 247.5 48 223.4 52
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.5 100 7.4 79
Turnovers 1.5 83 0.7 129

148
 UCLA HEAD COACH: CHIP KELLY (6TH)
BRUINS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CHIP KELLY
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: D’ANTON LYNN

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #31 OF 133

Chip Kelly still has a losing record (27-29) after five years at UCLA, where
he has not won a bowl, but he went 17-8 the past two years to dig out of a
hole. The Bruins took advantage of a favorable schedule to go Over 8.5 wins
POWER RATING 51.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #6 OF 12

last year. This schedule is a little tougher, and the quarterback situation is a
mystery, but UCLA could have its best defense of the Kelly era. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE
9/2 COASTAL CAROLINA -16 37.5
SCHEDULE 42.46
Kelly’s quarterback throughout most of his Westwood tenure was Dorian
9/9 at San Diego St -10.5 39
STRENGTH #64 TOUGHEST OF 133
Thompson-Robinson, who arrived in 2018 and started 48 games in five
seasons. Thompson-Robinson’s career ended in disappointment with a Sun
Bowl loss to Pittsburgh, and he was drafted in the fifth round by the Browns.
9/16 NC CENTRAL -38 16
FIELD 2.6 / 0.3
Kelly’s new starter will be junior Ethan Garbers, Kent State transfer Collin
9/23 at Utah 10.5 59
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
10/7 WASHINGTON ST -8 46
Schlee or hyped freshman Dante Moore. Zach Charbonnet also went to the NFL,
10/14 at Oregon St 5 53.5
as a second-round pick by the Seahawks, after rushing for 1,359 yards and 14

2023 ODDS
touchdowns. 10/21 at Stanford -16 34
10/28 COLORADO -20 34.5
The Bruins should be fine at running back thanks to the addition of Ball State 11/4 at Arizona -7 43
transfer Carson Steele, who rushed for 1,556 yards and 14 scores for the ODDS TO WIN
11/11 ARIZONA ST -11.5 42.5
Cardinals. Kelly’s new-look offense will not approach last year’s 39 points per
11/18 at USC 12.5 62
14-1 PAC 12
game, but with one of the top lines in the Pac-12, the decline in the numbers
should not be dramatic. 11/25 CALIFORNIA -9 45.5

DEFENSE
Nine starters are back, led by edge rusher Laiatu Latu and linebacker Darius ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 100-1
16
Muasau. Kelly runs the offense and leaves the defense to his coordinator, and NATIONAL
the new DC is D’Anton Lynn, who was an NFL assistant with the Ravens and
looks like an upgrade. The Bruins were bad defensively in the final five games
STARTERS DEFENSE: 9
CHAMPIONSHIP

last year, but this unit will be better.

OUTLOOK
Kelly saved his job in 2021, when he upset LSU and USC and finished 8-4. He 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
has started scheduling easier nonconference games to boost his record and OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-4, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 9-3
added Coastal Carolina and North Carolina Central this year to go along with STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 38.8 7 30.8 99 9/3 BOWLING GREEN (-24) 45-17 W W
a trip to San Diego State. The Bruins avoid Oregon and Washington in Pac-12
Yards Per Point 13 23 13.3 93 9/10 ALABAMA ST (-48.5) 45-7 W L
play, but they hit the road to play Utah, Oregon State, Arizona and USC. UCLA
Plays Per Game 73.8 35 9/17 S ALABAMA (-15.5) 32-31 W L
was a 20-point home favorite in a 34-28 loss to Arizona late last season. The
Time of Possession 27:37 115 9/24 at Colorado (-22.5) 45-17 W W
Bruins are breaking in a new quarterback and lost way too much offensive
3rd Down Conv. % 51.3% 4 39.3% 66 9/30 WASHINGTON (2.5) 40-32 W W
production to predict a nine-win season, so this is a lean Under 8.5.
Total Yards Per Game 505.1 5 411.3 89 10/8 UTAH (3.5) 42-32 W W
Yards Per Play 6.8 6 5.6 75 10/22 at Oregon (7) 30-45 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 39.7 33 10/29 STANFORD (-16.5) 38-13 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 239.8 5 133.5 36 11/5 at Arizona St (-11) 50-36 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 6 1 3.9 43 11/12 ARIZONA (-20) 28-34 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.5 56 11/19 USC (2.5) 45-48 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 69.0% 4 66.1% 121 11/25 at California (-11.5) 35-28 W L

UNDER 8.5
Passing Yards Per Game 265.3 32 277.8 119 12/30 vs. Pittsburgh (-8.5) 35-37 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.2 25 7.3 73
Turnovers 1.6 88 1.3 86

149
 USC HEAD COACH: LINCOLN RILEY (2ND)
TROJANS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOSH HENSON
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ALEX GRINCH

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #7 OF 133

With a returning Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback and an innovative
offensive coach, USC has what it takes on one side of the ball to be a national
title contender. Is the defense tough enough? Lincoln Riley coached Oklahoma
POWER RATING 62 CONFERENCE RANK: #1 OF 12

to three playoff appearances in five years, and he’s using the transfer portal
and NIL resources to his advantage in Los Angeles, so a playoff appearance for 2023 SCHEDULE
the Trojans is realistic in his second year. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
8/26 SAN JOSE ST -29.5 34.5
SCHEDULE 45.31
OFFENSE
9/2 NEVADA -37.5 26.5
STRENGTH #38 TOUGHEST OF 133
In 14 starts as a sophomore, Caleb Williams passed for 4,537 yards and 42
FIELD 2.2 / 0.3
touchdowns with only five interceptions. He completed 333-of-500 passes 9/9 STANFORD -30.5 34
and also rushed for 10 touchdowns. Williams is the college version of Patrick 9/23 at Arizona St -17.5 42.5
Mahomes and the likely No. 1 pick of the NFL Draft. Williams is as good as it 9/30 at Colorado -25 34.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

gets as a starting point, and the former Oklahoma transfer is surrounded by

10/7 ARIZONA -21.5 43
seven more returning starters. Tahj Washington and Mario Williams highlight a
10/14 at Notre Dame -1 58.5
big-play receiving corps, senior Austin Jones leads a backfield deep with talent
and the line looks stronger. Riley will be dialing up plays in a video-game 10/21 UTAH -5 59
2023 ODDS
offense. 10/28 at California -14.5 45.5

+190
11/4 WASHINGTON -6.5 58 ODDS TO WIN
DEFENSE PAC 12
11/11 at Oregon 0.5 59.5
A unit that surrendered 29.2 points and 424 yards per game returns nine
starters and adds several transfers, including tackle Bear Alexander (Georgia) 11/18 UCLA -12.5 51.5
and linebacker Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State). The defense excelled at forcing
turnovers last season, as USC finished +22 in turnover margin, yet that number
is probably unsustainable. The returnees and transfers indicate coordinator ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 16-1
17
Alex Grinch’s defense will be dramatically improved. NATIONAL

OUTLOOK
STARTERS DEFENSE: 9
CHAMPIONSHIP

The Trojans will be 6-0 going into their October 14 date at Notre Dame, which is
followed by a home game against Utah. USC went 11-3 last season with a one-
point loss at Utah, a 47-24 loss to the Utes in the conference title game, and a
one-point loss to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. The toughest spot on the Trojans’ 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
schedule figures to come November 11 at Oregon. USC topped its win total of OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 11-3, ATS: 8-6, O/U: 11-3
9.5 last year, and DraftKings wisely bumped this total to 10, but look Over. It’s STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 41.4 5 29.2 81 9/3 RICE (-32.5) 66-14 W W
always risky to bet Over a high win total because an injury to the quarterback
Yards Per Point 12.3 8 14.5 58 9/10 at Stanford (-9.5) 41-28 W W
could wreck the season. Still, assuming Williams stays healthy, all of the pieces
Plays Per Game 72.5 43 9/17 FRESNO ST (-11.5) 45-17 W W
are in place for at least a 10-win regular season and a spot in the four-team
Time of Possession 31:56 21 9/24 at Oregon St (-6) 17-14 W L
playoff. Williams gives the Trojans a significant advantage over other elite
3rd Down Conv. % 53.6% 2 42.9% 103 10/1 ARIZONA ST (-24.5) 42-25 W L
teams such as Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State.
Total Yards Per Game 506.7 3 423.9 101 10/8 WASHINGTON ST (-12.5) 30-14 W W
Yards Per Play 7 3 6.3 119 10/15 at Utah (3.5) 42-43 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 33.7 93 10/29 at Arizona (-14) 45-37 W L
Rush Yards Per Game 171.3 51 159.8 72 11/5 CALIFORNIA (-21) 41-35 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 24 5 112 11/11 COLORADO (-34.5) 55-17 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 36.7 25 11/19 at UCLA (-2.5) 48-45 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 67.1% 9 63.7% 103 11/26 NOTRE DAME (-4.5) 38-27 W W

OVER 10
Passing Yards Per Game 335.4 3 264.1 104 12/2 vs. Utah (-2.5) 24-47 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 9.1 5 8 108 1/2 vs. Tulane (-2) 45-46 L L
Turnovers 0.5 1 2 8

150
 UTAH HEAD COACH: KYLE WHITTINGHAM (19TH)
UTES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ANDY LUDWIG
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MORGAN SCALLEY

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #12 OF 133

Kyle Whittingham is a bet-on coach — until his quarterback goes down to
injury in the Rose Bowl. Utah finished 10-4 in the past two seasons and won
the Pac-12 Championship Game in a blowout each year. Unfortunately for
POWER RATING 59 CONFERENCE RANK: #3 OF 12

Whittingham, he had bad injury luck with his QB in Pasadena and lost to a Big
Ten opponent on both trips. With the Utes facing road games against USC and 2023 SCHEDULE
Washington this season, a Pac-12 three-peat is unlikely. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
8/31 FLORIDA -10 52
SCHEDULE 48.27
OFFENSE
9/9 at Baylor -4 52
STRENGTH #13 TOUGHEST OF 133
Senior quarterback Cameron Rising suffered a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl loss to
Penn State — a year after he was knocked out of a Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State
— and made the wise decision to return to school. Whittingham recently said
9/16 WEBER ST
9/23 UCLA
-25.5
-10.5
36.5
51.5
FIELD 3.4 / 0.3
he “absolutely” expects Rising to be ready for camp in early August and start 9/29 at Oregon St -2.5 53.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

the Aug. 31 opener against Florida. Rising is a true dual-threat QB, though the
10/14 CALIFORNIA -17 45.5
knee injury could limit his running game. Redshirt freshman Brandon Rose is
10/21 at USC 5 62
the current No. 2 quarterback and is followed on the depth chart by Bryson
Barnes and Nate Johnson. 10/28 OREGON -2.5 59.5
2023 ODDS
11/4 ARIZONA ST -20 42.5
The running back spot is in good hands with Ja’Quinden Jackson and Micah
+600
11/11 at Washington 1.5 58 ODDS TO WIN
Bernard. Tight ends Brant Kuithe and Thomas Yassmin are part of a line that PAC 12
11/18 at Arizona -14.5 43
Whittingham said might be the best he has had in depth and talent in his 19
years. This has the potential to be a great offense with Rising and still a good 11/25 COLORADO -28.5 34.5
one without him.

DEFENSE ODDS TO WIN

RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 70-1
16
Nine starters return from a unit that allowed 21.4 points per game. A line led NATIONAL
by Junior Tafuna is arguably the toughest in the conference, and the same
could be true about the defense as a whole because there are no weaknesses
STARTERS DEFENSE: 9
CHAMPIONSHIP

on any of the three levels. The Utes were too physical for USC and quarterback
Caleb Williams in the league title game.

OUTLOOK 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS

Rising is reportedly ahead of schedule in his knee rehab, and he needs to be OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 10-4, ATS: 8-6, O/U: 8-6
ready with Florida and Baylor looming the first two weeks. Aside from road STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 36 14 22.5 29 9/3 at Florida (-2.5) 26-29 L L
games against USC and Washington, the Utes play at Oregon State, so betting
Yards Per Point 12.7 18 15.7 28 9/10 S UTAH (-45.5) 73-7 W W
Over 8.5 is not an easy decision. Still, going Over is the lean due to faith in
Plays Per Game 73 41 9/17 SAN DIEGO ST (-22.5) 35-7 W W
Whittingham and the culture of toughness in his program. Utah probably
Time of Possession 33:27 9 9/24 at Arizona St (-16) 34-13 W W
boasts the best offensive and defensive lines in the league. If Rising’s health
3rd Down Conv. % 50.6% 7 33.3% 20 10/1 OREGON ST (-10.5) 42-16 W W
becomes an issue, the backups are capable of winning. The Utes are likely to
Total Yards Per Game 456.8 20 353.4 35 10/8 at UCLA (-3.5) 32-42 L L
lose at least two road games, but they will be solid favorites in all seven games
in Salt Lake City. Yards Per Play 6.3 22 5.7 90 10/15 USC (-3.5) 43-42 W L
Rush Attempts Per Game 39.8 30 10/27 at Washington St (-7) 21-17 W L
Rush Yards Per Game 215.5 11 116.8 19 11/5 ARIZONA (-18) 45-20 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.4 7 4.1 58 11/12 STANFORD (-24) 42-7 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.1 63 11/19 at Oregon (1) 17-20 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 63.6% 35 62.1% 90 11/26 at Colorado (-30) 63-21 W W

OVER 8.5
Passing Yards Per Game 241.3 51 236.5 81 12/2 vs. USC (2.5) 47-24 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.5 54 7.9 102 1/2 vs. Penn St (1.5) 21-35 L L
Turnovers 1.3 45 1.7 30

151
 WASHINGTON HEAD COACH: KALEN DEBOER (2ND)
HUSKIES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: RYAN GRUBB / JAMARCUS SHEPHARD
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: WILLIAM INGE / CHUCK MORRELL

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #14 OF 133

In his first year in Seattle, coach Kalen DeBoer took over a four-win team and
turned it around to 11-2, including an Alamo Bowl victory over Texas. DeBoer’s
success was not surprising to those who followed his teams at Fresno State. He
POWER RATING 58 CONFERENCE RANK: #4 OF 12

has a creative offensive mind, and he’s got the quarterback to take it to the
next level. The Huskies are a legit threat to win the conference, so circle their 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
November 4 game at USC as the Pac-12 season’s biggest game.
9/2 BOISE ST -14 46
SCHEDULE 46.92
OFFENSE 9/9 TULSA -29 31.5
STRENGTH #23 TOUGHEST OF 133

FIELD 2.6 / -0.1

Michael Penix ranked second in the nation with 4,641 passing yards last 9/16 at Michigan St -9.5 46
season, when he raised his NFL stock and still opted to return to school as a
Heisman Trophy contender. Penix again will be targeting Jalen McMillan and
9/23 CALIFORNIA -15.5 45.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
9/30 at Arizona -13 43
Rome Odunze, who combined for 154 receptions, 2,243 yards and 16 of the
10/14 OREGON -0.5 59.5
star quarterback’s 31 touchdowns. While the offensive line is mammoth in
2023 ODDS
10/21 ARIZONA ST -18 42.5
size, it is lacking some experience, with only two starters returning. But DeBoer
took an offense that averaged 21.5 points the previous year and ramped it up 10/28 at Stanford -22.5 34
to 39.7 points per game. In late-season road wins at Oregon and Washington 11/4 at USC 6.5 62

+320
State, Penix put up 37 and 51 points, respectively. Respect this offense as one 11/11 UTAH -1.5 59 ODDS TO WIN
PAC 12
of the nation’s best. 11/18 at Oregon St -1 53.5
11/25 WASHINGTON ST -14.5 46
DEFENSE
DeBoer is focused on the other side of the ball yet obviously knows the defense
must improve a lot, and it helps to have eight starters back. The Huskies ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 40-1
15
allowed 40 points in a loss at UCLA, 45 in a loss at Arizona State and 39 in a NATIONAL
win at Arizona. There is plenty of talent on a unit led by edge rusher Bralen
Trice, linebacker Alphonzo Tuputala and cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, a
STARTERS DEFENSE: 8
CHAMPIONSHIP

transfer from Oklahoma State.

OUTLOOK
The schedule is much tougher than last year, when Washington avoided USC
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 11-2, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 8-4
and Utah. The Huskies will play the Trojans and Utes on back-to-back Saturdays STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
in early November prior to a trip to Oregon State. However, the Huskies will be Points Per Game 38.7 8 27.5 65 9/3 KENT ST (-23.5) 45-20 W W
favored in their first eight games, including Boise State and Oregon at home, Yards Per Point 13.1 26 14.3 66 9/10 PORTLAND ST (-30) 52-6 W W
and Michigan State and Arizona on the road. This team should win nine to at Plays Per Game 75.7 20 9/17 MICHIGAN ST (-3.5) 39-28 W W
least push the win total. An injury to Penix would be a major problem, and Time of Possession 31:14 35 9/24 STANFORD (-14) 40-22 W W
that’s always a risk when playing an offensive-oriented team to top a high 3rd Down Conv. % 56.1% 1 46.8% 121 9/30 at UCLA (-2.5) 32-40 L L
Total Yards Per Game 507.3 2 392.8 74 10/8 at Arizona St (-13.5) 38-45 L L
win total. It’s a square bet, but Washington has the coach, quarterback and
Yards Per Play 6.7 9 5.6 73 10/15 ARIZONA (-14.5) 49-39 W L
improved defense to get to 10-2, so lean Over.
Rush Attempts Per Game 30 118 10/22 at California (-7.5) 28-21 W L
Rush Yards Per Game 138.1 81 124.5 28 11/4 OREGON ST (-4.5) 24-21 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.6 46 3.6 25 11/12 at Oregon (12) 37-34 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 45.2 4 11/19 COLORADO (-30.5) 54-7 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.6% 27 64.3% 110 11/26 at Washington St (-2.5) 51-33 W W

OVER 9
Passing Yards Per Game 369.3 1 268.3 108 12/29 vs. Texas (3) 27-20 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.2 22 8.1 110
Turnovers 0.8 10 1 113

152
 WASHINGTON STATE HEAD COACH: JAKE DICKERT (2ND)
COUGARS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BEN ARBUCKLE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JEFF SCHMEDDING

BY MATT YOUMANS STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #49 OF 133

Washington State was the definition of a middle-of-the-pack team in the Pac-12
last year. The Cougars went 4-0 against their weakest league opponents and
0-5 against the top half of the league (Utah, USC, Washington, Oregon and
POWER RATING 46 CONFERENCE RANK: #7 OF 12

Oregon State). The end result was a 7-5 record in the regular season and
second bowl appearance in coach Jake Dickert’s second season. Expect more of 2023 SCHEDULE
the same and maybe a little less. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 at Colorado St -14 30
SCHEDULE 42.23
OFFENSE
9/9 WISCONSIN 5.5 54
STRENGTH #66 TOUGHEST OF 133
In a conference stacked with star quarterbacks, Cameron Ward ranks on
the fringe of the top five. Ward proved he belongs. He was a transfer from
Incarnate Word in San Antonio, where he totaled 77 touchdown passes in two
9/16 N COLORADO -45 4.5
FIELD 3 / -0.1
seasons in the Southland Conference. In his first year at Washington State,
9/23 OREGON ST
10/7 at UCLA
4.5
8
53.5
51.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Ward completed 64.4% of his passes for 3,231 yards and 23 touchdowns with
10/14 ARIZONA -6.5 43
nine interceptions. He also ran for five touchdowns. Behind an improved line,

2023 ODDS
Ward’s numbers should improve. 10/21 at Oregon 17 59.5
10/28 at Arizona St -1 42.5
Nakia Watson, a former Wisconsin transfer, returns as the top running back, 11/4 STANFORD -15 34
and junior wide receiver Kyle Williams will be a go-to target after transferring ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at California 2 45.5
from UNLV. Offensive coordinator Eric Morris left for the head-coaching position
11/17 COLORADO -15 34.5
40-1 PAC 12
at North Texas, and new coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Western Kentucky is
another pass-happy play caller. 11/25 at Washington 14.5 58

DEFENSE
If the Cougars crumble, the defense will probably be the reason. A unit that ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 300-1
12
allowed 23.0 points per game returns only five starters. Senior Brennan NATIONAL
Jackson does return as one of the elite defensive ends in the league. One
positive is USC quarterback Caleb Williams is not on the schedule.
STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

OUTLOOK
Washington State went 3-0 in nonconference play last year and upended
Wisconsin 17-14 as a 17-point road underdog. The Cougars open at Colorado 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
State, an improved Mountain West team, before hosting the revenge-minded OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 3-10
Badgers. USC and Utah are not on the conference schedule, so that’s a big STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 26.3 71 23.4 37 9/3 IDAHO (-28) 24-17 W L
break, but the Cougars play five league road games and will likely be a ‘dog
Yards Per Point 13.8 45 17.7 11 9/10 at Wisconsin (17.5) 17-14 W W
in four. Ward and the offense might have to carry a heavy load for Washington
Plays Per Game 69.8 74 9/17 COLORADO ST (-17) 38-7 W W
State early before a rebuilt defense catches up. Dickert, the team’s former
Time of Possession 28:04 112 9/24 OREGON (6) 41-44 L W
defensive coordinator, has a lot of work to do on that side of the ball. Unless
3rd Down Conv. % 35.6% 93 39.5% 72 10/1 CALIFORNIA (-4) 28-9 W W
the Cougars upset Wisconsin again — and don’t bet on that — they are unlikely
Total Yards Per Game 361.4 83 414.5 92 10/8 at USC (12.5) 14-30 L L
to win seven games. The crystal ball shows 6-6, which could be optimistic.
Yards Per Play 5.2 82 5.8 95 10/15 at Oregon St (3) 10-24 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 28.2 127 10/27 UTAH (7) 17-21 L W
Rush Yards Per Game 105.5 114 142.2 47 11/5 at Stanford (-3) 52-14 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.7 86 4.3 71 11/12 ARIZONA ST (-9.5) 28-18 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 38.3 19 11/19 at Arizona (-4) 31-20 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.7% 24 61.9% 86 11/26 WASHINGTON (2.5) 33-51 L L

UNDER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 255.9 43 272.3 115 12/17 vs. Fresno St (5.5) 6-29 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.7 92 7.6 91
Turnovers 1.2 36 1.6 38

153
sec
betting preview
The Georgia Bulldogs won the SEC Championship Game on their way to winning the College Football Playoff last year. Kirby Smart’s team has won the
conference in two of the last six years. The Bulldogs are also favored to win it for a second year in a row, as they’re listed at -115 to take the conference. The
Alabama Crimson Tide have the second-best odds of winning the SEC, but they’re way back at +300. Nick Saban’s program has won the conference in eight of
the last 15 years. People are somewhat down on the Tide after they missed the College Football Playoff last year, but you can bet against Saban at your own risk.

The LSU Tigers are yet another team that looks to have what it takes to compete on paper. Brian Kelly led LSU to a 10-4 record in his first year with the program,
and the Tigers now have +450 odds to win the SEC. Outside of that, it’s hard to count out teams like the Texas A&M Aggies and Tennessee Volunteers.

The rest of the programs in this conference are likely a few years away from actually competing to win the SEC, but it will be interesting to see what the
Ole Miss Rebels, Auburn Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks do this season. Lane Kiffin has led Ole Miss to winning records in back-to-back years, so this
program can make a little noise. As for Auburn, the Tigers hired Hugh Freeze in the offseason. He probably needs a little time to build this program up,
but he’ll have the resources and knows what it takes to win in the SEC. Meanwhile, Arkansas is 16-10 over the last two seasons and brings back star
quarterback K.J. Jefferson. That comes with some expectations, but does the team have enough around Jefferson to turn in another winning season?

Another team to keep an eye on is the Florida Gators. It’ll be interesting to see how they do in Year 2 of Billy Napier. Florida was just 6-7 in 2022 and lost
by 27 against the Oregon State Beavers in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl. If the Gators don’t improve in a hurry, Napier’s seat could get hot rather
quickly. Florida is a program that expects to compete with the big boys in the SEC, so patience won’t be there in evaluating the state of this team.

2023 PROJECTED STANDINGS (BASED ON STEVE MAKINEN RATINGS)

2023 Schedule Strength All Games Conference Games DraftKings
Team SM PR (Rank) PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's O/U
EAST DIVISION
GEORGIA 70.5 43.68 (60) 11.3 0.7 7.3 0.7 11.5
TENNESSEE 56.5 47.5 (19) 8.1 3.9 4.3 3.7 9.5
KENTUCKY 52.5 46.14 (29) 7.2 4.8 3.8 4.2 6.5
FLORIDA 52 48.6 (10) 6.1 5.9 3.5 4.5 5.5
SOUTH CAROLINA 50.5 50.34 (1) 6.0 6.0 3.5 4.5 6.5
MISSOURI 49.5 48.2 (14) 6.1 5.9 3.1 4.9 6.5
VANDERBILT 39.5 46.33 (27) 3.9 8.1 1.1 6.9 3.5
WEST DIVISION
ALABAMA 67.5 48.71 (9) 10.3 1.7 6.6 1.4 10.5
LSU 62.5 46.18 (28) 9.3 2.7 5.8 2.2 9.5
TEXAS A&M 56 45.88 (33) 7.7 4.3 4.1 3.9 7.5
OLE MISS 56 49.28 (3) 7.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 7.5
ARKANSAS 52 46.13 (30) 6.8 5.2 3.1 4.9 7
AUBURN 52 47.3 (22) 6.6 5.4 3.1 4.9 6.5
MISSISSIPPI ST 50.5 47.83 (16) 6.4 5.6 2.7 5.3 6.5
154
 ALABAMA HEAD COACH: NICK SABAN (17TH)
CRIMSON TIDE
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TOMMY REES
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KEVIN STEELE

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #3 OF 133

The Alabama Crimson Tide have seemingly fallen behind Georgia as the class
of the SEC, but there’s no way Nick Saban will sit back and accept that. The
legendary head coach is going to do everything in his power to get this team
back in the College Football Playoff hunt, but will the quarterback play allow
POWER RATING 67.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #2 OF 14

that to happen this season? That is seemingly the biggest question mark
heading into the year, as Bryce Young is now spending his Sundays playing for
the Carolina Panthers.
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Alabama’s offensive line wasn’t very good last season, but Young was so good 9/2 MIDDLE TENN ST -38 32.5
SCHEDULE 48.71
that he could mask that, along with some of the program’s other deficiencies —
9/9 TEXAS -8 62.5
STRENGTH #9 TOUGHEST OF 133
at least when playing at home. Without a legitimate superstar at quarterback,
will things look a lot worse? The defense likely won’t be what it was last year,
which isn’t great, considering last season was a bit of a drop from the year
9/16 at South Florida -34.5 31.5
FIELD 3.1 / 0.3
before.
9/23 OLE MISS
9/30 at Mississippi St
-14.5
-15
56
50.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

OFFENSE
10/7 at Texas A&M -9 56
If Jalen Milroe wins this job, the passing game could take a small hit. That’d be
a slight shame considering the efficiency this unit has had through the air over 10/14 ARKANSAS -19 52
the years, but it might be a necessary evil when you factor in that Alabama
10/21 TENNESSEE -14 56.5
2023 ODDS
returns only two starters from last year’s offensive line. Milroe’s ability to take
off and extend plays would help a unit that might lack connectivity early in the 11/4 LSU -7.5 62.5
season. But Ty Simpson is a bit better as a decision-maker, and his accuracy as
+300
11/11 at Kentucky -12 52.5 ODDS TO WIN
a passer is better than Milroe’s. Simpson would likely be a bit better of a fit for SEC
new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees’ system, and he also has the ability to 11/18 CHATTANOOGA -41 29.5
tuck it and run. It’s just not something he looks to do quite as early.
11/25 at Auburn -13 52
Regardless of who wins this job, the wide receiver group should be a lot better
than last year, and most of that will come from the internal development of
some highly talented athletes. The Crimson Tide also have a stable of gifted ODDS TO WIN
running backs, so the ground game should be fine as long as the offensive line RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 +600
10
NATIONAL
doesn’t implode.

DEFENSE
STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

Even though Will Anderson Jr.. struggled to live up to the hype last year, the
team will miss his presence. But talent is never an issue on the defensive side
of the ball for Alabama. Sure, the linebacking corps won’t be quite as good
as it was with Anderson in the mix, but the defensive line should be better in
2023. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 11-2, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 6-7
The Crimson Tide also have a very good group of defensive backs, which STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
should be a big asset against some of the SEC’s better passing teams. Overall, Points Per Game 41.7 3 19.7 12 9/3 UTAH ST (-42) 55-0 W W
Alabama might struggle to replicate last year’s 18.0 points per game allowed Yards Per Point 11.4 3 16.7 20 9/10 at Texas (-21) 20-19 W L
(tied for 9th in CFB). But it’s hard to see the Tide completely falling apart on
Plays Per Game 70 67 9/17 LA MONROE (-49.5) 63-7 W W
this side of the ball, and they should ultimately be a top-20 unit once again.
Time of Possession 29:28 76 9/24 VANDERBILT (-40.5) 55-3 W W
OUTLOOK 3rd Down Conv. % 46.0% 17 30.8% 10 10/1 at Arkansas (-17) 49-26 W W
There’s just no value in betting the Under at -175 odds. This is a very talented Total Yards Per Game 473.1 12 327.7 17 10/8 TEXAS A&M (-24.5) 24-20 W L
football team, and the schedule isn’t as awful as you might think for a top-tier
Yards Per Play 6.8 7 4.5 5 10/15 at Tennessee (-9.5) 49-52 L L
SEC program. Alabama’s toughest road game will come against Texas A&M,
but that’s one the Tide could easily find a way to win. If they steal that one on Rush Attempts Per Game 34.4 84 10/22 MISSISSIPPI ST (-21.5) 30-6 W W
the road, it’s hard to find two other losses on the schedule. And there’s national Rush Yards Per Game 190.1 30 136.4 40 11/5 at LSU (-13) 31-32 L L
title potential if the quarterback play is better than people think. Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.5 6 3.7 33 11/12 at Ole Miss (-11) 30-24 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 34 46 11/19 AUSTIN PEAY (-44.5) 34-0 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 63.2% 37 54.4% 6 11/26 AUBURN (-21.5) 49-27 W W

OVER 10.5
Passing Yards Per Game 283 17 191.3 16 12/31 vs. Kansas St (-7.5) 45-20 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.3 16 5.7 3
Turnovers 1.1 26 0.9 120

155
 ARKANSAS HEAD COACH: SAM PITTMAN (4TH)
RAZORBACKS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DAN ENOS
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TRAVIS WILLIAMS / MARCUS WOODSON

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #28 OF 133

Head coach Sam Pittman has worked wonders since arriving in Fayetteville. The
Arkansas Razorbacks weren’t in good shape when he took over the program,
and the team went just 3-7 in 2020. But Arkansas is 16-10 since the start of the
2021 season, and the team has won each of its past two bowl games.
POWER RATING 52 CONFERENCE RANK: #9 OF 14

However, this does figure to be something of a challenging year for this team. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Star quarterback K.J. Jefferson is back under center for the Hogs, but only
10 starters return from last year’s group. The Razorbacks also lost offensive 9/2 vs. W Carolina -32.5 21
SCHEDULE 46.13
coordinator Kendal Briles to TCU in the offseason. Briles did a great job of
9/9 KENT ST -34 20.5
STRENGTH #30 TOUGHEST OF 133
taking Arkansas’ offense to another level, and Dan Enos will have his work cut
FIELD 2 / -0.2
out for him in filling his shoes. 9/16 BYU -8 46
9/23 at LSU 14 62.5
OFFENSE
9/30 vs. Texas A&M 4.5 56
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
It’ll be intriguing to see what this offense looks like with Briles no longer
calling the shots. Enos, who spent last season as the offensive coordinator and 10/7 at Ole Miss 7 56
quarterbacks coach for Maryland, probably won’t be asked to change things 10/14 at Alabama 19 67.5
too much. He’ll definitely do what he can to use Jefferson as a runner, as the
quarterback rushed for 640 yards and nine touchdowns last year. 10/21 MISSISSIPPI ST -3.5 50.5
2023 ODDS
11/4 at Florida 3 52
With a great group of running backs, Arkansas will have plenty of options 11/11 AUBURN -2 52 ODDS TO WIN
when it comes to the ground game. But Jefferson also posted a career-high
11/18 FLA INTERNATIONAL -33 21.5
100-1 SEC
completion percentage in 2022, while also throwing for 2,648 yards with
24 touchdowns and only five picks. The Razorbacks will be hoping that the 11/24 MISSOURI -5 49.5
senior can turn in an even better year as a thrower in 2023. The issue is that
Arkansas’ offensive line is a bit of a question mark, with three of last year’s
starters having departed. The Razorbacks are also lacking in proven talent at
ODDS TO WIN
the wide receiver position. RETURNING OFFENSE: 4 QB 200-1
10
NATIONAL

DEFENSE
Arkansas had one of the worst defenses in the SEC last year, giving up 28.8
STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

points per game. Only two teams gave up more rushing yards per game
than the Razorbacks did, but that actually could improve in 2023. Arkansas’
defensive line should be quite a bit better than it was last season. The team will
just need an inexperienced group of linebackers to find a way to support the
defensive front when defending the run. Another issue is that the Razorbacks
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 10-3
were lousy in the secondary last year, and there isn’t much to be optimistic STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
about when it comes to the defensive backs group. With that in mind, Arkansas Points Per Game 32.1 30 30.9 101 9/3 CINCINNATI (-6.5) 31-24 W W
should be one of the worst defenses in the conference again in 2023. 14.4 70 15.2 43
Yards Per Point 9/10 SOUTH CAROLINA (-9) 44-30 W W
Plays Per Game 77.1 13 9/17 MISSOURI ST (-25.5) 38-27 W L
OUTLOOK
With this total sitting at 7, you have to ask yourself whether it’s more likely Time of Possession 29:42 70 9/24 vs. Texas A&M (1.5) 21-23 L L
the Razorbacks win six or eight games. And I just don’t see how eight would 3rd Down Conv. % 46.4% 15 45.7% 116 10/1 ALABAMA (17) 26-49 L L
be the answer there. Jefferson is an electric player at the quarterback position, Total Yards Per Game 461.2 17 469.5 124 10/8 at Mississippi St (8.5) 17-40 L L
but Arkansas is going to miss Briles’ mind offensively. And this team is very Yards Per Play 6 31 6.3 121 10/15 at BYU (1) 52-35 W W
inexperienced on both sides of the ball, so it’s hard to envision the Razorbacks Rush Attempts Per Game 47.4 6 10/29 at Auburn (-4) 41-27 W W
exceeding expectations with their difficult schedule. Rush Yards Per Game 239.8 5 181 99 11/5 LIBERTY (-14.5) 19-21 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 25 4.8 101 11/12 LSU (5) 10-13 L W
Pass Attempts Per Game 27.1 109 11/19 OLE MISS (1) 42-27 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.9% 22 61.7% 84 11/25 at Missouri (-4) 27-29 L L

UNDER 7
Passing Yards Per Game 221.3 75 288.5 129 12/28 vs. Kansas (-2.5) 55-53 W L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.2 23 8.5 123
Turnovers 1.3 42 1.5 51

156
 AUBURN HEAD COACH: HUGH FREEZE (1ST)
TIGERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: PHILIP MONTGOMERY
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: RON ROBERTS

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #29 OF 133

After going 39-25 in five seasons with Ole Miss, some off-field shenanigans
forced Hugh Freeze to take a few years off as a head coach. But Freeze
returned with Liberty in 2019, and he went 34-15 in four seasons with the
program. Freeze’s work with the Flames ended up getting him this big
POWER RATING 52 CONFERENCE RANK: #10 OF 14

opportunity with the Auburn Tigers, and the expectation is that this will
ultimately end up working out very well for both parties. But how quickly will 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
the hiring yield results? It isn’t hard to envision it happening immediately.
Auburn returns 17 starters, and Freeze did well on the transfer market. And 9/2 MASSACHUSETTS -37.5 17.5
SCHEDULE 47.30
Freeze’s schematic changes should bring the best out of most of these players.
9/9 at California -4 45.5
STRENGTH #22 TOUGHEST OF 133
Another big change for the Tigers is that Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne
decided to end his career with Auburn. He should stabilize the quarterback
position in a big way.
9/16 SAMFORD
9/23 at Texas A&M
-24
7
30.5
56
FIELD 2.7 / -0.1
9/30 GEORGIA 16.5 70.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
OFFENSE
Robby Ashford is a dual-threat quarterback with a lot of potential, so he’d 10/14 at LSU 14 62.5
theoretically make for a good fit in the same offense that turned Malik Willis 10/21 OLE MISS 1.5 56
into a superstar. But it seems like this is Thorne’s job to lose, and it’s hard to
argue with the logic behind that. Two seasons ago, Thorne threw for 3,240 10/28 MISSISSIPPI ST -4.5 50.5
2023 ODDS
yards with 27 touchdowns and only 10 picks for Michigan State. He struggled 11/4 at Vanderbilt -11 39.5
to replicate that in a down year for the Spartans last year, but Thorne is the ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Arkansas 2 52
son of a coach and can be trusted to run Freeze’s offense. He’s the safe play
11/18 NEW MEXICO ST -29 26
80-1 SEC
for a team with very inconsistent production from the quarterback position last
year. With a solid offensive line and a running game that projects to be very 11/25 ALABAMA 13 67.5
strong, decent play is all Auburn needs out of Thorne.

DEFENSE
ODDS TO WIN
Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts should be huge for this program. Roberts RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 150-1
17
NATIONAL

STARTERS
oversaw a very good Baylor defense in each of the last three years, and that CHAMPIONSHIP
also means that he got to consistently pick the brain of Dave Aranda. Don’t be DEFENSE: 9
surprised if this is one of the best units in the SEC after giving up a miserable
29.5 points per game a year ago. The right system should do wonders for a
team that has legitimate talent in place. Freeze brought in a ton of transfers
that are ready to contribute immediately. And the Tigers should have one of
the SEC’s best secondaries, with corners DJ James and Nehemiah Pritchett
being two guys that should be in for big years.
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 8-4
STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
OUTLOOK Points Per Game 23.2 90 30.7 94 9/3 MERCER (-30) 42-16 W L
This is one of the better bets you can make in this conference. Auburn 15.9 106 13.2 98
Yards Per Point 9/10 SAN JOSE ST (-24) 24-16 W L
completely overhauled its coaching staff, going from one of the worst ones in
Plays Per Game 69.5 77 9/17 PENN ST (2.5) 12-41 L L
the SEC to one of the best groups in the entire country. When you combine that
with the fact that the new staff will get to work with some experienced players, Time of Possession 30:02 62 9/24 MISSOURI (-7.5) 17-14 W L
you’re looking at a team that could take a massive leap in 2023. Five games 3rd Down Conv. % 35.5% 94 42.2% 97 10/1 LSU (8) 17-21 L W
on Auburn’s schedule should result in easy wins, and the team should be able Total Yards Per Game 367.7 78 406.5 85 10/8 at Georgia (27.5) 10-42 L L
to find two or three more. Yards Per Play 5.3 75 5.5 65 10/15 at Ole Miss (15) 34-48 L W
Rush Attempts Per Game 40.6 23 10/29 ARKANSAS (4) 27-41 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 198.6 21 182.5 101 11/5 at Mississippi St (12.5) 33-39 L W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.9 33 4.8 104 11/12 TEXAS A&M (-2) 13-10 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 26.1 116 11/19 W KENTUCKY (-4.5) 41-17 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 50.9% 122 57.6% 28 11/26 at Alabama (21.5) 27-49 L L

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 169.1 118 224 53
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.5 101 6.6 24
Turnovers 1.8 106 1.2 94

157
 FLORIDA HEAD COACH: BILLY NAPIER (2ND)
GATORS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ROB SALE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: AUSTIN ARMSTRONG / SEAN SPENCER

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #27 OF 133

The Florida Gators went 6-7 in Billy Napier’s first year at the helm, but people
are still somewhat excited about the future of this program. Napier spent a
lot of time working under Nick Saban at Alabama, so he’s viewed as a future
star in his profession. But Napier isn’t going to have a lot of time to prove
POWER RATING 52 CONFERENCE RANK: #8 OF 14

to Florida’s higher-ups that he is the right guy for this job. He needs to turn
things around quickly, and it doesn’t seem like his second year with the Gators 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
will be any better than the first. This is still a team that’s in dire need of an
improvement at the quarterback position, and Napier needs to find a way to 8/31 at Utah 10 59
SCHEDULE 48.60
beef up his offensive line. Until that happens, Florida will struggle to turn in
9/9 MCNEESE ST -44.5 10.5
STRENGTH #10 TOUGHEST OF 133
winning seasons in this loaded conference. If we’re right about the Gators in
2023, Napier could enter 2024 on the hot seat. 9/16 TENNESSEE
9/23 CHARLOTTE
1.5
-30
56.5
25
FIELD 3 / 0.2
OFFENSE
9/30 at Kentucky 3.5 52.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
The Gators have some studs at wide receiver. Ricky Pearsall and Caleb Douglas
are two guys that can really do damage on the outside. Florida also has a nice 10/7 VANDERBILT -16 39.5
group of running backs, with Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson making up 10/14 at South Carolina 0.5 50.5
a nice duo that brings different skill sets out of the backfield. The problem for
the Gators is that the offensive line will likely be a weakness this year. That 10/28 vs. Georgia 19 70.5
2023 ODDS
could cause everything to come crashing down on the offense, especially with 11/4 ARKANSAS -3 52
quarterback play not being much of a strength. Whether it’s Wisconsin transfer ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at LSU 13.5 62.5
Graham Mertz or Jack Miller III under center, it’ll be hard to believe in this
11/18 at Missouri 0 49.5
100-1 SEC
passing game. With that being the case, the Gators will likely have one of the
worst offenses in the conference. 11/25 FLORIDA ST 4.5 59.5

DEFENSE
While the offense likely won’t be much better in 2023, the defense should
ODDS TO WIN
be tougher to score on this season. This program was once known for being RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 200-1
11
NATIONAL

STARTERS
impenetrable, and Napier clearly wants to get back to that. That’s why he CHAMPIONSHIP
brought in Southern Miss defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to work with DEFENSE: 5
Sean Spencer in the offseason. Florida wasn’t very tough against the run last
year, and the team couldn’t get timely stops either. That should change this
year, as the defensive line is set to flip and become a legitimate strength for
this group. The Gators also have a nice group of linebackers, so they should be
able to hit opponents in the backfield and fly to the ball in a hurry. The only
real question mark with this group is in the secondary, with the safeties being
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 7-6
something of a concern. Regardless, Florida should improve drastically upon STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
the 28.8 points per game it gave up in 2022. Points Per Game 27.7 61 29.8 87 9/3 UTAH (2.5) 29-26 W W
Yards Per Point 14.6 77 13.8 78 9/10 KENTUCKY (-6) 16-26 L L
OUTLOOK
Plays Per Game 67 100 9/17 SOUTH FLORIDA (-23) 31-28 W L
Maybe Napier is the right guy to turn this program around, but it’s hard to see
it happening this year. The defense will have a difficult time keeping this team Time of Possession 29:30 75 9/24 at Tennessee (10.5) 33-38 L W
in games, and the schedule isn’t all that easy. Outside of potential victories 3rd Down Conv. % 40.1% 47 50.3% 129 10/2 E WASHINGTON (-32) 52-17 W W
over McNeese, Charlotte and Vanderbilt, nothing is guaranteed for the Gators. Total Yards Per Game 403.3 46 412.3 91 10/8 MISSOURI (-11) 24-17 W L
Yards Per Play 6 29 5.9 105 10/15 LSU (-1.5) 35-45 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 36.8 62 10/29 vs. Georgia (23) 20-42 L W
Rush Yards Per Game 193.4 26 178.4 95 11/5 at Texas A&M (1.5) 41-24 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.3 14 4.7 98 11/12 SOUTH CAROLINA (-8) 38-6 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 28.7 96 11/19 at Vanderbilt (-14) 24-31 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 53.2% 117 60.4% 63 11/25 at Florida St (9.5) 38-45 L W

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 209.8 90 233.9 74 12/17 vs. Oregon St (7.5) 3-30 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.3 63 7.9 103
Turnovers 1.2 36 1.8 20

158
 GEORGIA HEAD COACH: KIRBY SMART (8TH)
BULLDOGS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MIKE BOBO
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: WILL MUSCHAMP / GLENN SCHUMANN

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #1 OF 133

The Georgia Bulldogs have won back-to-back national championships, and
Kirby Smart’s team is favored to win it all again this year. Georgia will,
however, need to do it without Stetson Bennett, the team’s starting quarterback
for the past two seasons, as well as several elite players that went on to be
POWER RATING 70.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #1 OF 14

selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. But programs like this one never really struggle
to retool on a year-to-year basis. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Georgia has five-star talent to plug into open positions on the depth chart, and
9/2 TENN-MARTIN -50.5 22.5
SCHEDULE 43.68
the team also has 13 starters returning from last year’s championship team. If
quarterback Carson Beck can get himself comfortable and start playing some 9/9 BALL ST -42.5 30.5
STRENGTH #60 TOUGHEST OF 133
good football after an easy early-season schedule, the Bulldogs should once
again be in the College Football Playoff. There isn’t a team in the country that
is as talented as this one from top to bottom.
9/16 SOUTH CAROLINA -22.5 50.5
FIELD 2.5 / 0.5
9/23 UAB
9/30 at Auburn
-38
-16.5
35
52
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
OFFENSE
It seems like Beck is going to get the starting quarterback job, but it isn’t 10/7 KENTUCKY -20.5 52.5
out of the question that Brock Vandagriff will steal it from him. Either way,
2023 ODDS
this passing game should be just fine with Bennett gone. Of course, Georgia 10/14 at Vanderbilt -30 39.5
will miss Bennett’s poise in big games, but the Bulldogs have one of the best 10/28 vs. Florida -19 52
offensive lines in college football.
11/4 MISSOURI -24 49.5

-115
Georgia also brought back pass-catching stars in tight end Brock Bowers and 11/11 OLE MISS -17 56 ODDS TO WIN
wide receiver Ladd McConkey, who leads a group of gifted wideouts. The SEC
Bulldogs should also have a great running game in 2023, with Kendall Milton 11/18 at Tennessee -11.5 56.5
leading a solid stable of running backs that should mostly be running through 11/25 at Georgia Tech -30.5 39
big holes. Overall, it shouldn’t surprise anybody if Georgia comes close to
matching last year’s 41.1 points per game, which was tied for the fourth-
highest mark in college football in 2022.
ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 +215
13
DEFENSE NATIONAL
Georgia had the second-best scoring defense in college football last year,
allowing only 12.8 points per game on the season. The team did lose some STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

elite talent to the NFL Draft, but the Bulldogs have plenty of studs remaining —
and new players ready to have their coming out parties. Georgia is especially
strong in the secondary, where Javon Bullard should be one of the best players
in all of college football next season. The Dawgs also have a ton of talent
along the defensive line, which is always helpful in a conference that is won 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
in the trenches. If somebody can emerge from Georgia’s young group of OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 15-0, ATS: 8-7, O/U: 7-7
linebackers, this should be one of the best defenses in the nation again. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 41.6 4 15.3 5 9/3 vs. Oregon (-16) 49-3 W W
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 12.1 6 20.2 3 9/10 SAMFORD (-53.5) 33-0 W L
Georgia obviously has a great chance of winning the College Football Playoff
this year, but it’s still hard to back the Dawgs to go undefeated in the regular Plays Per Game 70.1 65 9/17 at South Carolina (-25.5) 48-7 W W
season. Road games against Auburn and Tennessee will really test this Time of Possession 33:09 10 9/24 KENT ST (-45) 39-22 W L
Bulldogs team, and I just find it hard to believe they won’t get tripped up 3rd Down Conv. % 52.1% 3 28.0% 3 10/1 at Missouri (-31) 26-22 W L
somewhere along the way. With that in mind, the best way to back Georgia is Total Yards Per Game 502.9 6 308.9 10 10/8 AUBURN (-27.5) 42-10 W W
probably by taking them to win the SEC at -115. That gives you some wiggle
room throughout the regular season, but you’ll still have a good price on them Yards Per Play 7.2 2 4.8 16 10/15 VANDERBILT (-37) 55-0 W W
in the SEC Championship Game. They’d surely be a moneyline favorite of -115 Rush Attempts Per Game 37.5 55 10/29 vs. Florida (-23) 42-20 W L
or greater against anybody they face there. Rush Yards Per Game 211.4 14 81.2 1 11/5 TENNESSEE (-9.5) 27-13 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.6 3 3 4 11/12 at Mississippi St (-16) 45-19 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.1 64 11/19 at Kentucky (-21.5) 16-6 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 68.4% 6 57.3% 25 11/26 GEORGIA TECH (-36.5) 37-14 W L

UNDER 11.5
Passing Yards Per Game 291.4 13 227.6 61 12/3 vs. LSU (-17) 50-30 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 9.1 6 6.6 25 12/31 vs. Ohio St (-5) 42-41 W L
Turnovers 1.2 40 1.3 81 1/9 vs. TCU (-13.5) 65-7 W W

159
 KENTUCKY HEAD COACH: MARK STOOPS (11TH)
WILDCATS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: LIAM COEN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRAD WHITE

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #25 OF 133

After going 12-24 in his first three years as the head coach of the Kentucky
Wildcats, Mark Stoops has had his team post a winning record in six of the past
seven seasons. He has really done some impressive work in a situation that not
many people thought could be successful. This year, Stoops is expected to flirt
POWER RATING 52.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #7 OF 14

again with a winning record, and bringing in quarterback Devin Leary from
NC State should help. Leary has big shoes to fill in replacing Will Levis, who 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
was the 33rd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. But the former ACC standout should
be able to do it adequately, as long as he is given some time to throw. The big 9/2 BALL ST -25 30.5
SCHEDULE 46.14
question for Kentucky is how the defense will perform with only five returning
9/9 E KENTUCKY -32 23.5
STRENGTH #29 TOUGHEST OF 133
starters from last year’s superb unit.

OFFENSE
9/16 AKRON -32.5 24
FIELD 3.3 / 0
Levis was a very good starting quarterback for the Wildcats, but the team
9/23 at Vanderbilt
9/30 FLORIDA
-11.5
-3.5
39.5
52
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
might have upgraded in bringing in Leary after last season. Two seasons
ago, Leary threw for 3,433 yards with 35 touchdowns and only five picks for 10/7 at Georgia 20.5 70.5
NC State. He has a big arm and can throw it deep with accuracy, so he might
2023 ODDS
10/14 MISSOURI -6.5 49.5
be able to take this passing game to another level. Leary is also a better
decision-maker than Levis, so this offense likely won’t be gift-wrapping many 10/28 TENNESSEE 1 56.5
turnovers to the opponent. The success of this unit will just come down to the 11/4 at Mississippi St 0.5 50.5
offensive line. Stoops hit the transfer portal hard to try and patch things up ODDS TO WIN
11/11 ALABAMA 12 67.5
along the line, but there’s no guarantee that’ll work. Kentucky will also miss
11/18 at South Carolina 0.5 50.5
100-1 SEC
having Chris Rodriguez in the backfield, as he’s one of the best running backs
in school history. 11/25 at Louisville 1 50

DEFENSE
Kentucky had the 12th-best scoring defense in the nation last year, as the
ODDS TO WIN
Wildcats gave up only 19.1 points per game. It’s highly unlikely they’ll be RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 150-1
14
NATIONAL

STARTERS
able to replicate that success with only five starters back, but this should be an CHAMPIONSHIP
above-average unit in 2023. Kentucky’s defensive line can probably be counted DEFENSE: 5
on to be productive in 2023, and the linebackers are another group that Stoops
won’t have to worry about. The Wildcats just need to hold up in the secondary,
as they’re pretty inexperienced at corner. The good news is that Kentucky has
size and athleticism at the position.

OUTLOOK
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 1-12
With a rather favorable schedule in place in 2023, it’s hard to see this team STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
not winning seven games. All it will take is a win or two in a 50-50 game on Points Per Game 19.5 111 20.8 16 9/3 MIAMI OHIO (-15) 37-13 W W
the road. This isn’t exactly a team that’s impressive in any way, shape or form, 16 107 15.4 34
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Florida (6) 26-16 W W
but Stoops has consistently won since taking over in Lexington. I expect him to
Plays Per Game 65.3 116 9/17 YOUNGSTOWN ST (-30) 31-0 W W
put together another year that ends with a trip to a bowl game.
Time of Possession 32:43 13 9/24 N ILLINOIS (-27) 31-23 W L
3rd Down Conv. % 32.7% 110 35.4% 35 10/1 at Ole Miss (6.5) 19-22 L W
Total Yards Per Game 311.8 115 321.3 11 10/8 SOUTH CAROLINA (-4.5) 14-24 L L
Yards Per Play 4.8 106 5.1 37 10/15 MISSISSIPPI ST (3.5) 27-17 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 35.6 75 10/29 at Tennessee (10.5) 6-44 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 117.3 98 147.5 54 11/5 at Missouri (1.5) 21-17 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.3 112 4.3 81 11/12 VANDERBILT (-17) 21-24 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 26.2 115 11/19 GEORGIA (21.5) 6-16 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 62.7% 44 61.0% 75 11/26 LOUISVILLE (-3.5) 26-13 W W

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 194.4 105 173.8 7 12/31 vs. Iowa (3) 0-21 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 57 6.5 21
Turnovers 1.3 48 1.3 86

160
 LSU HEAD COACH: BRIAN KELLY (2ND)
TIGERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MIKE DENBROCK
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MATT HOUSE

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #6 OF 133

By the end of Brian Kelly’s first year in Baton Rouge, the LSU Tigers looked like
one of the best teams in the country. Now, the expectation is that the Tigers
will build on last year’s success and compete for a national title. But first, LSU
needs to hold off Alabama in the SEC West and eventually Georgia after that.
POWER RATING 62.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #3 OF 14

While this team looks great on paper, it does seem like something of a difficult
task. But overall, Kelly has done a good job of quickly getting the Tigers back 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
in the conversation. And this team should be electric on both sides of the ball,
which is why we’re here debating whether this will be another double-digit win 9/3 vs. Florida St -3 59.5
SCHEDULE 46.18
season.
9/9 GRAMBLING -63.5 2.5
STRENGTH #28 TOUGHEST OF 133

OFFENSE
Quarterback Jayden Daniels always flashed potential in his time with Arizona
9/16 at Mississippi St
9/23 ARKANSAS
-10
-14
50.5
52
FIELD 3.2 / 0.4
State, but he looked like a legitimate star in his first year with the Tigers. Last
9/30 at Ole Miss -4 56
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
season, Daniels threw for 2,913 yards with 17 touchdowns and only three
interceptions, while also rushing for 885 yards and 11 scores. He looked very 10/7 at Missouri -10.5 49.5
comfortable facing elite SEC competition, and he should have an outside shot 10/14 AUBURN -14 52
at winning the Heisman Trophy this year. Daniels is flanked by a talented
group of wide receivers, but can the running game take some pressure off 10/21 ARMY -30 36
2023 ODDS
him? Daniels probably put himself in harm’s way a little too often last year, so 11/4 at Alabama 7.5 67.5
LSU needs a running back to step up and become the guy. The offensive line
+450
11/11 FLORIDA -13.5 52 ODDS TO WIN
is definitely good enough this year, so there’s no excuse for somebody not to SEC
seize the job. 11/18 GEORGIA ST -31.5 34
11/25 TEXAS A&M -9.5 56
DEFENSE
In defensive tackle Maason Smith and linebacker Harold Perkins, the Tigers
probably have the best defensive duo in the nation. Smith tore his ACL early
ODDS TO WIN
last season, but he’s back to bolster the defensive line this year. Meanwhile, RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 11-1
15
NATIONAL

STARTERS
Perkins is a game wrecker in the middle of the field, and the two of them will CHAMPIONSHIP
be nightmares for opposing offenses this year. LSU should especially be better DEFENSE: 7
against the run this year, which will be huge after that was a weakness in
2022. If this group has one inexperienced unit, it’s probably in the secondary.
But you never really have to worry about LSU fielding productive defensive
backs. Overall, this should be a very difficult defense to score on this season.

OUTLOOK
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 10-4, ATS: 8-6, O/U: 8-6
There aren’t many holes on this LSU roster, but how can you be confident in 10 STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
wins with this schedule? Meetings with Florida State, Ole Miss, Alabama and Points Per Game 32.2 28 22.9 31 9/4 vs. Florida St (-4) 23-24 L L
Texas A&M all look like tough ones for the Tigers. And Kelly’s team can easily 13.9 50 15.7 27
Yards Per Point 9/10 SOUTHERN (-44.5) 65-17 W W
stumble somewhere else along the way. Kelly has clearly done a good job of
Plays Per Game 74.7 28 9/17 MISSISSIPPI ST (3) 31-16 W W
building this program up, and he could have some championships in his future.
But it’d be shocking if he gets it done with this gauntlet of a schedule. Time of Possession 30:58 39 9/24 NEW MEXICO (-31) 38-0 W W
3rd Down Conv. % 47.3% 12 40.0% 76 10/1 at Auburn (-8) 21-17 W L
Total Yards Per Game 445.7 27 360.9 40 10/8 TENNESSEE (2.5) 13-40 L L
Yards Per Play 6 32 5.2 43 10/15 at Florida (1.5) 45-35 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 37 61 10/22 OLE MISS (0) 45-20 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 180.3 43 143.8 49 11/5 ALABAMA (13) 32-31 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.9 34 4 52 11/12 at Arkansas (-5) 13-10 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 34.4 40 11/19 UAB (-15) 41-10 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 67.1% 10 56.0% 17 11/26 at Texas A&M (-10) 23-38 L L

UNDER 9.5
Passing Yards Per Game 265.4 31 217.2 45 12/3 vs. Georgia (17) 30-50 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.7 45 6.9 45 1/2 vs. Purdue (-15) 63-7 W W
Turnovers 1.3 45 1.2 90

161
 MISSISSIPPI STATE HEAD COACH: ZACH ARNETT (1ST)
BULLDOGS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KEVIN BARBAY
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MATT BROCK

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #33 OF 133

The world lost an amazing coach and an even better person when Mike Leach
passed away last year. Leach was one of the most unique personalities in
college football, as there was never a dull moment when he was around. Leach
will also be remembered as one of the brightest offensive minds in the history
POWER RATING 50.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #11 OF 14

of the sport, so the vibe might not feel quite right with this Mississippi State
Bulldogs team in 2023. But Zach Arnett was highly regarded as a defensive 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
coordinator, and the 36-year-old should be able to find a way to win with this
team. It just might not happen right away. The wounds are still extremely fresh 9/2 SE LOUISIANA -24 28.5
SCHEDULE 47.83
for Mississippi State, and there’s likely an adjustment period coming. Don’t be
9/9 ARIZONA -10.5 43
STRENGTH #16 TOUGHEST OF 133
surprised if the Bulldogs are ultra-competitive throughout the year, but they
FIELD 2.4 / -0.1
might fall short of expectations. 9/16 LSU 10 62.5
9/23 at South Carolina 2.5 50.5
OFFENSE
9/30 ALABAMA 15 67.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Mississippi State brings back eight starters from last year’s offense, but that
was a team that was built to play in Leach’s Air Raid. Things might not be 10/7 W MICHIGAN -27 26
as smooth with new offensive Kevin Barbay installing his system. Barbay is 10/21 at Arkansas 3.5 52
considered one of the most innovative young minds in football, so this offense
should start humming eventually. But it might take a little time for these 10/28 at Auburn 4.5 52
2023 ODDS
players to get comfortable, and time isn’t really a luxury when you play a 11/4 KENTUCKY -0.5 52.5
schedule like this one. Look for quarterback Will Rogers to continue to make 11/11 at Texas A&M 8.5 56 ODDS TO WIN
some big plays in the passing game, but the running game will be more
11/18 SOUTHERN MISS -17 36
120-1 SEC
emphasized in 2023. Four starters are back along the offensive line, and
Barbay’s offense will be most effective when things are clicking on the ground. 11/23 OLE MISS 3 56
With that said, Jo’Quavious Marks could be in for a big year.

DEFENSE
ODDS TO WIN
The Bulldogs have a very good group of linebackers, so that’s a nice RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 200-1
12
NATIONAL

STARTERS
foundation to build on for Arnett. The defensive line should also be a CHAMPIONSHIP
productive unit for Mississippi State. The question is how the Bulldogs will DEFENSE: 4
hold up in the secondary. They only brought back one starter from last year’s
group of corners, and the talent at the position doesn’t appear to be there.
This defense is ready to play pretty much everywhere else, but a leaky passing
game would be tough to overcome in this conference.

OUTLOOK
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-4, ATS: 7-5, O/U: 7-6
It might take some time for everybody to get excited about this program after STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
the tragedy that took place last year. But Arnett is viewed as one of the most Points Per Game 29.6 47 24.4 43 9/3 MEMPHIS (-17) 49-23 W W
promising up-and-coming coaches in college football. He’s a brilliant defensive 13.2 31 14.8 52
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Arizona (-12.5) 39-17 W W
mind and was going to get an opportunity to lead a team eventually. This
Plays Per Game 74 33 9/17 at LSU (-3) 16-31 L L
year might be a little rough in Starkville, as the team is likely looking at six or
fewer wins. But the future is brighter than it might seem right now. Time of Possession 30:24 54 9/24 BOWLING GREEN (-31) 45-14 W T
3rd Down Conv. % 38.3% 69 34.9% 27 10/1 TEXAS A&M (-4) 42-24 W W
Total Yards Per Game 390.8 59 360.4 39 10/8 ARKANSAS (-8.5) 40-17 W W
Yards Per Play 5.3 76 5.1 38 10/15 at Kentucky (-3.5) 17-27 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 23.3 131 10/22 at Alabama (21.5) 6-30 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 83.1 128 136.2 39 11/5 AUBURN (-12.5) 39-33 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.6 95 4 54 11/12 GEORGIA (16) 19-45 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 48.7 1 11/19 E TENN ST (-39) 56-7 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 66.6% 12 61.0% 74 11/24 at Ole Miss (2.5) 24-22 W W

UNDER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 307.8 11 224.3 55 1/2 vs. Illinois (-3.5) 19-10 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.3 108 6.6 30
Turnovers 1.5 72 1.6 38

162
 MISSOURI HEAD COACH: ELIAH DRINKWITZ (4TH)
TIGERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KIRBY MOORE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BLAKE BAKER

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #39 OF 133

Eliah Drinkwitz hasn’t yet turned in a winning season since becoming head
coach of the Missouri Tigers, but the team returns 15 starters from last year’s
team. They also happen to be getting talent back at the right positions, with
quarterback Brady Cook returning after a big year and most of his offensive
POWER RATING 49.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #13 OF 14

line back to protect him. Of course, having experience doesn’t guarantee

success in the SEC, but this definitely does seem like Drinkwitz’s chance to 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
make some noise with this program. Missouri opens the season with four
winnable games in its first five contests, but how will things go from there? Do 8/31 S DAKOTA -30 22.5
SCHEDULE 48.20
the Tigers have a few big wins in them?
9/9 MIDDLE TENN ST -20 32.5
STRENGTH #14 TOUGHEST OF 133

FIELD 2.9 / -0.4

OFFENSE 9/16 KANSAS ST 1 53
This offense feels like it can really take off in 2023. Last year, Cook threw 9/23 vs. Memphis -6 44.5
for 2,739 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven picks, and he also added 585
9/30 at Vanderbilt -8 39.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
yards and six scores on the ground. He’s a difficult player to try and stop, and
he should be even better with a year of seasoning. Cook will also be working 10/7 LSU 10.5 62.5
behind a very experienced offensive line, and his wide receiver group has 10/14 at Kentucky 6.5 52.5
potential. Luther Burden was a highly touted recruit that should be ready to
step up and make plays in 2023. Missouri also has a nice group of running 10/21 SOUTH CAROLINA -2 50.5
2023 ODDS
backs, so this team should get a little something out of the ground game. 11/4 at Georgia 24 70.5
Overall, the Tigers should significantly improve upon last year’s 24.8 points 11/11 TENNESSEE 4.5 56.5 ODDS TO WIN
per game. And this should be an offense that finds a way to show up against
11/18 FLORIDA 0 52
150-1 SEC
above-average defenses.
11/24 at Arkansas 5 52
DEFENSE
Missouri only allowed 25.0 points per game last season and now has eight
starters back from last year’s team. The strength of this Tigers team should be
ODDS TO WIN
the defensive backs, as Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw make up one RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 500-1
15
NATIONAL

STARTERS
heck of a duo at corner. But Missouri also has talent at linebacker, and there’s CHAMPIONSHIP
some potential along the defensive line. The big question is how the defensive DEFENSE: 8
ends will play for the Tigers in 2023. That is the least proven group on this
defense, and it’s one that has been good for the program in recent years. If
somebody can step up and make plays on the edge, Missouri might be a lot
better than expected.

OUTLOOK
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 4-9
It’d be pretty surprising if Missouri doesn’t open the year with at least a 4-1 STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
record. From there, the Tigers will have opportunities to win some games. I Points Per Game 24.1 84 25.8 54 9/1 LOUISIANA TECH (-20.5) 52-24 W W
like their chances at home against Florida, and I don’t think it’s outrageous 14.9 80 13.3 95
Yards Per Point 9/10 at Kansas St (7.5) 12-40 L L
to think they can beat either Kentucky or Arkansas on the road. That makes it
Plays Per Game 69.8 73 9/17 ABILENE CHRISTIAN (-31.5) 34-17 W L
hard not to like the Over for their regular season win total, especially at these
odds. I also think there’s a chance this team ends up winning eight games. Time of Possession 30:49 45 9/24 at Auburn (7.5) 14-17 L W
There’s real talent on both sides of the ball. 3rd Down Conv. % 39.9% 50 35.5% 36 10/1 GEORGIA (31) 22-26 L W
Total Yards Per Game 357.7 88 344.2 29 10/8 at Florida (11) 17-24 L W
Yards Per Play 5.1 85 5.1 36 10/22 VANDERBILT (-14) 17-14 W L
Rush Attempts Per Game 37.4 57 10/29 at South Carolina (3.5) 23-10 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 151.8 64 127.5 31 11/5 KENTUCKY (-1.5) 17-21 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.1 69 3.7 30 11/12 at Tennessee (19) 24-66 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 30.3 83 11/19 NEW MEXICO ST (-29) 45-14 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 62.8% 42 59.8% 54 11/25 ARKANSAS (4) 29-27 W W

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 205.9 93 216.7 43 12/23 vs. Wake Forest (2.5) 17-27 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.8 85 7.2 64
Turnovers 1.6 88 1.3 74

163
 OLE MISS HEAD COACH: LANE KIFFIN (4TH)
REBELS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOHN DAVID BAKER / CHARLIE WEIS JR.
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: PETE GOLDING

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #17 OF 133

The Ole Miss Rebels didn’t quite live up to 2021’s 10-3 season last year, as they
went 8-5 in 2022. The season also ended with a disappointing 17-point loss
against Texas Tech in the bowl game, but things have the potential to get better
POWER RATING 56 CONFERENCE RANK: #5 OF 14

in 2023. Ole Miss still has Jaxson Dart at quarterback, and star running back
Quinshon Judkins is back to run behind one of the conference’s best offensive 2023 SCHEDULE
lines. That means the offense should be special once again under head coach DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Lane Kiffin, who has done nothing but pump out elite offenses over the last
9/2 MERCER -24 34.5
SCHEDULE 49.28
decade. Kiffin also brought in former Alabama defensive coordinator Pete
9/9 at Tulane -4 49
STRENGTH #3 TOUGHEST OF 133
Golding in the offseason. If that hire hits, you’re looking at a team that could
pull off some stunners this year. 9/16 GEORGIA TECH -20 39
FIELD 2.7 / 0.1
OFFENSE
9/23 at Alabama 14.5 67.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
9/30 LSU 4 62.5
Ole Miss averaged 33.5 points per game in 2022 and should be even better
10/7 ARKANSAS -7 52
offensively this season. Dart threw for 2,974 yards with 20 touchdowns and 11

2023 ODDS
picks last year, and he also rushed for 614 yards and a score. For his first year 10/21 at Auburn -1.5 52
in the system, Dart really showed a lot of promise for the Rebels. If he does 10/28 VANDERBILT -19.5 39.5
hold off Oklahoma State transfer Spencer Sanders for the starting job, Dart 11/4 TEXAS A&M -2.5 56
should do big things behind a stellar offensive line. It also helps that Judkins ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Georgia 17 70.5
is arguably the best running back in this conference. Last year, Judkins rushed
11/18 LA MONROE -34.5 24.5
45-1 SEC
for 1,567 yards and 16 touchdowns for Ole Miss. He has a good shot at leading
the conference in rushing again this year, and his ability to take over games 11/23 at Mississippi St -3 50.5
will make the Rebels a tough team to beat this year.

DEFENSE ODDS TO WIN

RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 100-1
16
Not only did the Rebels bring Golding in to change up this defense, but he NATIONAL
also has seven returning starters to work with. This defense wasn’t even all
that bad in 2022, as Ole Miss only gave up 24.2 points per game last season.
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

But the Rebels should find a way to improve upon that, and that’s what
makes this a team with some sleeper potential in 2023. Ole Miss should be
especially tough against the run, as a lot of impact players return along the
line and in the linebacking corps. If there’s any weakness with this group, it’s 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
the inexperienced secondary. But Kiffin did well in bringing in some talented OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 4-8, O/U: 6-7
defensive backs in the transfer portal. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 31.3 35 27.4 63 9/3 TROY (-21) 28-10 W L
Yards Per Point 15.8 100 14.6 56 9/10 C ARKANSAS (-36.5) 59-3 W W
OUTLOOK
Plays Per Game 78.8 5 9/17 at Georgia Tech (-17) 42-0 W W
Ole Miss has a really challenging schedule, but this is also a program that has
Time of Possession 26:37 125 9/24 TULSA (-21) 35-27 W L
won 18 games over the last two years. With 16 starters returning from last
3rd Down Conv. % 47.5% 11 40.2% 79 10/1 KENTUCKY (-6.5) 22-19 W L
year, why shouldn’t we believe in the Rebels to build on that success? Kiffin
Total Yards Per Game 495 7 400.8 79 10/8 at Vanderbilt (-17) 52-28 W W
has produced nothing but elite offenses since becoming the head coach of Ole
Miss, and that shouldn’t change this year. The Rebels should win at least eight Yards Per Play 6.3 21 5.3 48 10/15 AUBURN (-15) 48-34 W L
games and possibly even contend in the SEC West. Rush Attempts Per Game 48 4 10/22 at LSU (0) 20-45 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 258.3 2 173.5 91 10/29 at Texas A&M (-3) 31-28 W T
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.4 8 4.4 86 11/12 ALABAMA (11) 24-30 L W
Pass Attempts Per Game 29.6 91 11/19 at Arkansas (-1) 27-42 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 62.3% 48 65.0% 115 11/24 MISSISSIPPI ST (-2.5) 22-24 L L

OVER 7.5
Passing Yards Per Game 236.8 56 227.3 60 12/28 vs. Texas Tech (-3.5) 25-42 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8 33 6.8 38
Turnovers 1.7 97 1.3 74

164
 SOUTH CAROLINA HEAD COACH: SHANE BEAMER (3RD)
GAMECOCKS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DOWELL LOGGAINS
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CLAYTON WHITE

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #34 OF 133

Shane Beamer has led the South Carolina Gamecocks to back-to-back winning
seasons, and this team was especially impressive towards the end of 2022.
South Carolina closed out the year with wins over Tennessee and Clemson, and
POWER RATING 50.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #12 OF 14

quarterback Spencer Rattler looked like a star in the final weeks of the year.
The hope is that Rattler will carry that momentum into the 2023 season, but 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
the Gamecocks did lose a lot of talent from last year’s squad. South Carolina
9/2 vs. North Carolina 3.5 53.5
SCHEDULE 50.34
only brought back 10 total starters, and only four returned on the defensive
side of the ball. The Gamecocks were lousy defensively last season, and they 9/9 FURMAN -17 35.5
STRENGTH #1 TOUGHEST OF 133

FIELD 2.4 / -0.2

can’t afford to be quite as bad in 2023. Maybe some fresh faces will help. 9/16 at Georgia 22.5 70.5
9/23 MISSISSIPPI ST -2.5 50.5
OFFENSE 9/30 at Tennessee 9 56.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)

Rattler finished last season by throwing for 10 touchdowns and three

10/14 FLORIDA -0.5 52
interceptions over his final three games, and he also added a score on the
10/21 at Missouri 2 49.5
ground. On top of that, the uber-talented thrower averaged 348.0 passing
yards per game. Rattler really seemed to flip a switch late in the year, but 10/28 at Texas A&M 8.5 56
2023 ODDS
he has fooled people before. So, which version of the former Oklahoma 11/4 JACKSONVILLE ST -20 32.5
quarterback will we see in 2023? If it’s the good one, the Gamecocks should 11/11 VANDERBILT -13.5 39.5 ODDS TO WIN
be able to make up for a lack of returning talent. It helps that Beamer is a very 11/18 KENTUCKY -0.5 52.5
90-1 SEC

good offensive coach and added some nice players from the transfer portal. 11/25 CLEMSON 7 59.5

DEFENSE
The Gamecocks allowed 27.5 points per game last year, and their defense ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 QB 150-1
10
really put them in some difficult spots in their losses. This year, South Carolina NATIONAL
has question marks at every level of the defense, but the good news is that
the new starters aren’t exactly replacing many studs. Experience is almost
STARTERS DEFENSE: 4
CHAMPIONSHIP

always a positive in college football, but an argument can be made that the
Gamecocks will be better off with some new faces seeing an increase in snaps.
The main priority for South Carolina will be finding a way to stop the run and
get bodies in the backfield, in general. Beamer’s defense was constantly in
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-5, ATS: 7-5, O/U: 8-4
short-yardage situations, making it difficult to get stops. And the lack of a pass STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
rush put the defensive backs in tough spots. Points Per Game 30.7 40 30.4 92 9/3 GEORGIA ST (-12.5) 35-14 W W
Yards Per Point 12.3 9 13.8 77 9/10 at Arkansas (9) 30-44 L L
OUTLOOK Plays Per Game 66.8 103 9/17 GEORGIA (25.5) 7-48 L L
The Gamecocks don’t have the easiest schedule in the world, but Beamer has Time of Possession 28:39 95 9/24 CHARLOTTE (-23.5) 56-20 W W
proven he can deliver wins in tough games. With that in mind, South Carolina 3rd Down Conv. % 38.0% 74 45.9% 119 9/29 S CAROLINA ST (-40) 50-10 W T
Total Yards Per Game 377.4 68 420.5 98 10/8 at Kentucky (4.5) 24-14 W W
should be able to make it to seven victories in 2023. The Gamecocks have a
Yards Per Play 5.7 46 5.7 87 10/22 TEXAS A&M (3) 30-24 W W
few games they should easily come away with this season, and then there are
Rush Attempts Per Game 31.7 108 10/29 MISSOURI (-3.5) 10-23 L L
a couple of 50-50 spots. I trust South Carolina in those games, and it might be
Rush Yards Per Game 114.1 102 202.8 117 11/5 at Vanderbilt (-6.5) 38-27 W W
easier than expected if the defense improves.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.6 93 5.1 118 11/12 at Florida (8) 6-38 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.6 54 11/19 TENNESSEE (22.5) 63-38 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 65.7% 16 54.4% 7 11/26 at Clemson (14) 31-30 W W

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 263.3 33 217.8 47 12/30 vs. Notre Dame (5) 38-45 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.1 30 6.8 33
Turnovers 2 119 1.7 31

165
 TENNESSEE HEAD COACH: JOSH HEUPEL (3RD)
VOLUNTEERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOEY HALZLE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TIM BANKS

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #16 OF 133

Josh Heupel has done a great job with this Tennessee Volunteers program, as
he’s 18-8 since joining the team in 2021. Last year, Tennessee earned double-
digit victories and concluded its season with a 31-14 win over Clemson in the
POWER RATING 56.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #4 OF 14

Orange Bowl. It was a statement win for a program that suddenly looks like it
has championship potential. The problem is that the Volunteers lost a lot of key 2023 SCHEDULE
players from last year’s squad, including star quarterback Hendon Hooker. But DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
Tennessee hopes that former Michigan quarterback Joe Milton can finally live
9/2 VIRGINIA -20.5 39
SCHEDULE 47.50
up to his immense potential. If he can, the Vols could be extremely dangerous
9/9 AUSTIN PEAY -31 28
STRENGTH #19 TOUGHEST OF 133
in 2023, as they return seven starters on defense.

OFFENSE
9/16 at Florida -1.5 52
FIELD 2.9 / 0.2
Hooker was so good for the Vols in 2022 that he was picked in the third round
9/23 TX-SAN ANTONIO -14.5 44.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
9/30 SOUTH CAROLINA -9 50.5
of the 2023 NFL Draft, despite being a 25-year-old coming off a torn ACL. He
10/14 TEXAS A&M -3.5 56
was a huge part of why the Volunteers led the nation in scoring at 46.1 points

2023 ODDS
per game. With that said, Milton has some huge shoes to fill. Milton does 10/21 at Alabama 14 67.5
have a massive arm and should be very good in the running game with his 10/28 at Kentucky -1 52.5
combination of mobility and size. But his accuracy will be tested in this offense, 11/4 CONNECTICUT -28 32
and any slip in the passing game will make it hard for this Volunteers team to ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Missouri -4.5 49.5
win at least 10 games this year. The good news for Milton is that the blocking
11/18 GEORGIA 11.5 70.5
14-1 SEC
up front should be great, and Tennessee does have weapons all over the field.
Milton also has the luxury of working with one of the brightest offensive minds 11/25 VANDERBILT -20 39.5
in the nation.

DEFENSE ODDS TO WIN

RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 30-1
12
The Vols gave up only 23.5 points per game last season, and this defense NATIONAL
brings back seven starters from that group. The key one might be linebacker
Aaron Beasley, who was the team’s leader in tackles last season. He’s the
STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

leader of a linebacking corps that should be solid in 2023. Tennessee also has
good depth along the defensive line and at defensive back. Overall, this unit
should be solid at every level, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they improve a
bit upon last year’s impressive numbers. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 11-2, ATS: 10-3, O/U: 7-6
OUTLOOK STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 44.5 1 22.7 30 9/1 BALL ST (-36.5) 59-10 W W
You’ll have to lay a lot of juice to play the Under on Tennessee’s win total, but
Yards Per Point 11.5 4 17.9 9 9/10 at Pittsburgh (-6) 34-27 W W
you might have to suck it up if you’re desperate to take something on the Vols
Plays Per Game 73.9 34 9/17 AKRON (-47.5) 63-6 W W
before the year. When looking at this schedule, it’s just very hard to see a path
Time of Possession 24:52 130 9/24 FLORIDA (-10.5) 38-33 W L
to 10 wins. You’d have to have a ton of faith in Milton to play this Over, and we
3rd Down Conv. % 37.0% 83 35.0% 29 10/8 at LSU (-2.5) 40-13 W W
really haven’t seen much that suggests he’s ready to play to the level Hooker
Total Yards Per Game 511.3 1 406.5 84 10/15 ALABAMA (9.5) 52-49 W W
did in 2022 — especially with wide receiver Jalin Hyatt now in the NFL.
Yards Per Play 6.9 4 5.2 42 10/22 TENN-MARTIN (-39) 65-24 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 39.8 31 10/29 KENTUCKY (-10.5) 44-6 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 199.3 20 119.2 22 11/5 at Georgia (9.5) 13-27 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 28 3.3 12 11/12 MISSOURI (-19) 66-24 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.1 62 11/19 at South Carolina (-22.5) 38-63 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 68.6% 5 63.2% 99 11/26 at Vanderbilt (-14) 56-0 W W

UNDER 9.5
Passing Yards Per Game 312 9 287.3 128 12/30 vs. Clemson (3.5) 31-14 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 9.7 2 7.1 61
Turnovers 0.8 10 1.7 31

166
 TEXAS A&M HEAD COACH: JIMBO FISHER (6TH)
AGGIES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BOBBY PETRINO
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: D. J. DURKIN

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #18 OF 133

Last year’s 5-7 record seems to have put a huge cloud over Jimbo Fisher and
the Texas A&M Aggies, but this program is still 39-21 since he took over. And
Fisher was adamant about last year being something of a retooling season,
with the 2023 season being the one he’s really excited about. Texas A&M
POWER RATING 56 CONFERENCE RANK: #6 OF 14

brings back 20 starters this year, with 10 returning on both offense and
defense. The Aggies also hired Bobby Petrino to overhaul the offense, which 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
has been extremely disappointing in recent seasons. With Petrino in place as
offensive coordinator and some improved play under center, Texas A&M should 9/2 NEW MEXICO -38.5 21
SCHEDULE 45.88
be one of the elite teams in the SEC this season. And the good news for bettors
9/9 at Miami FL -4.5 49.5
STRENGTH #33 TOUGHEST OF 133
is that the Aggies aren’t quite priced like it.

OFFENSE
9/16 LA MONROE -35 24.5
FIELD 2.9 / 0.1
It seems pretty likely that Conner Weigman will be the starter at quarterback
9/23 AUBURN
9/30 vs. Arkansas
-7
-4.5
52
52
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
for the Aggies. Like potential backup Max Johnson, Weigman takes good care
of the football. But he has a little more arm talent, and that should allow 10/7 ALABAMA 9 67.5
Petrino to open up this offense a bit. Weigman will also be playing with one 10/14 at Tennessee 3.5 56.5
of the best wide receiver groups in the nation, with star wideout Ainias Smith
being the leader of the pack. And he’ll also have the luxury of being protected 10/28 SOUTH CAROLINA -8.5 50.5
2023 ODDS
by one of the best offensive lines in all of college football. When you mix 11/4 at Ole Miss 2.5 56
in what should be a productive running game, this Aggies offense has the ODDS TO WIN
11/11 MISSISSIPPI ST -8.5 50.5
potential to be special in 2023.
11/18 ABILENE CHRISTIAN -39.5 19.5
14-1 SEC

DEFENSE 11/25 at LSU 9.5 62.5

Texas A&M’s defense bent but didn’t break in 2022. The Aggies gave up a
decent amount of yards per game, but they only gave up 21.2 points per
game. That was good for the fourth-best scoring defense in the conference.
ODDS TO WIN
Now, Texas A&M brings back 10 starters from last year’s group. The Aggies RETURNING OFFENSE: 10 QB 60-1
20
NATIONAL

STARTERS
should be stellar when it comes to rushing the passer and defending the pass. CHAMPIONSHIP
If there’s any question with this Texas A&M team, it’s the linebackers group. DEFENSE: 10
But the team does have a ton of talent in the middle of the field, so it could be
a strength if things click. And the Aggies do have a good defensive mind trying
to figure it all out, as D.J. Durkin is a very good football coach. He should do a
good job of piecing things together, and it might ultimately lead to him getting
another shot as a head coach. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 4-7, O/U: 5-7
OUTLOOK STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
It’s pretty stunning that the Aggies’ win total is down at 8. It seems like the Points Per Game 22 97 23.1 33 9/3 SAM HOUSTON ST (-36) 31-0 W L
worst-case scenario for this team would be a push, as they’re completely 15.9 104 16.5 22
Yards Per Point 9/10 APPALACHIAN ST (-18) 14-17 L L
loaded on both sides of the ball. Texas A&M also happens to play some of its
Plays Per Game 64.9 118 9/17 MIAMI FL (-6.5) 17-9 W W
tougher games at home, with the exceptions being road games against Miami,
Tennessee and LSU. But the Aggies will like their chances in all of those games, Time of Possession 27:27 116 9/24 vs. Arkansas (-1.5) 23-21 W W
and it wouldn’t be all that shocking if they end up winning 10 games this year. 3rd Down Conv. % 34.3% 103 37.7% 53 10/1 at Mississippi St (4) 24-42 L L
Texas A&M feels like the biggest threat to Alabama in the SEC West. Total Yards Per Game 348.9 96 380.4 57 10/8 at Alabama (24.5) 20-24 L W
Yards Per Play 5.4 65 5.2 41 10/22 at South Carolina (-3) 24-30 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 30.3 117 10/29 OLE MISS (3) 28-31 L T
Rush Yards Per Game 144.7 70 218.3 124 11/5 FLORIDA (-1.5) 24-41 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.8 38 4.9 107 11/12 at Auburn (2) 10-13 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 32.4 58 11/19 MASSACHUSETTS (-32) 20-3 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 55.3% 108 56.9% 19 11/26 LSU (10) 38-23 W W

OVER 8
Passing Yards Per Game 204.2 95 162.1 2
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.3 110 6 6
Turnovers 1.5 65 1.3 83

167
 VANDERBILT HEAD COACH: CLARK LEA (3RD)
COMMODORES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOEY LYNCH
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: NICK HOWELL

BY ZACHARY COHEN STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #72 OF 133

It hasn’t always looked the prettiest, but Clark Lea has the Vanderbilt
Commodores moving in the right direction. After going 2-10 in 2021, the
Commodores went 5-7 in 2022. The team also earned wins over Kentucky and
Florida, which was massive after having gone winless in SEC play in each of
POWER RATING 39.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #14 OF 14

the previous two seasons. Now, Vanderbilt returns 15 starters from last year’s
team. The hope is that the Commodores can continue to take more steps 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
toward being a competitive football team. But the oddsmakers aren’t showing
Vanderbilt much respect, as the team has a regular season win total of 3.5. 8/26 HAWAII -18 23
SCHEDULE 46.33
9/2 ALABAMA A&M -34 7
STRENGTH #27 TOUGHEST OF 133
OFFENSE
FIELD 1.5 / -0.3
In Will Sheppard, Quincy Skinner and Jayden McGowan, the Commodores have 9/9 at Wake Forest 9.5 45.5
a nice trio of wide receivers for AJ Swann to get the ball to. Swann unseated 9/16 at UNLV -5.5 31.5
Ken Seals as the quarterback of the future for this Vanderbilt team, throwing
9/23 KENTUCKY 11.5 52.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
for 1,274 yards with 10 touchdowns and only two picks last year. Swann has
real arm talent and can fit the ball into tight windows. But with that arm talent 9/30 MISSOURI 8 49.5
comes the need to make good decisions with the football. He got a bit lucky 10/7 at Florida 16 52
on some questionable passes last year, but that comes with being a young
quarterback. Vanderbilt also have a good offensive line, which should help 10/14 GEORGIA 30 70.5
2023 ODDS
Swann get comfortable. It’d be big if somebody could emerge as the top dog in 10/28 at Ole Miss 19.5 56
the running game, but that group is a glaring weakness for this Commodores 11/4 AUBURN 11 52 ODDS TO WIN
team.
11/11 at South Carolina 13.5 50.5
500-1 SEC

DEFENSE 11/25 at Tennessee 20 56.5

While Lea has a defensive background, Vanderbilt’s defense has been a huge
weakness in his two years at the helm. Last year, the Commodores gave up
36.0 points per game, the highest mark in the SEC. In fact, only six teams
ODDS TO WIN
in all of college football gave up more points per game than Vanderbilt last RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 500-1
15
NATIONAL

STARTERS
year. Now, the team does get back eight starters from last year, so you’d think CHAMPIONSHIP
that some added experience will help take things to another level. But talent DEFENSE: 8
is still an issue for this group. There isn’t any particular level of the defense
that stands out as worse than others, but none of them are strong. So, this
unit should once again hold the program back a bit. The 2024 season could be
when things finally click for this group.

OUTLOOK
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 5-7, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 6-6
I’m not exactly sold on Vanderbilt being a better team in 2023 than it was in STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
2022, but it won’t take much for this team to win four games. In fact, it isn’t Points Per Game 23 91 36.5 123 8/27 at Hawaii (-9) 63-10 W W
out of the realm of possibility that the Commodores will lock this up by their 14.8 79 12.6 115
Yards Per Point 9/3 ELON (-18.5) 42-31 W L
fifth game of the season. All four of their early-season games are extremely
Plays Per Game 67.5 98 9/10 WAKE FOREST (13.5) 25-45 L L
winnable, with 3-1 seeming like the worst possible outcome. From there, you’d
have to think Vanderbilt can find one more win the rest of the way. Time of Possession 32:10 18 9/17 at N Illinois (2.5) 38-28 W W
3rd Down Conv. % 36.7% 88 41.2% 86 9/24 at Alabama (40.5) 3-55 L L
Total Yards Per Game 341 101 458.3 120 10/8 OLE MISS (17) 28-52 L L
Yards Per Play 5.1 90 6.8 129 10/15 at Georgia (37) 0-55 L L
Rush Attempts Per Game 37.3 59 10/22 at Missouri (14) 14-17 L W
Rush Yards Per Game 158.9 59 172.5 88 11/5 SOUTH CAROLINA (6.5) 27-38 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.3 62 5.3 122 11/12 at Kentucky (17) 24-21 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 28.8 95 11/19 FLORIDA (14) 31-24 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 57.4% 92 64.9% 114 11/26 TENNESSEE (14) 0-56 L L

OVER 3.5
Passing Yards Per Game 182.1 113 285.7 127
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.3 109 8.6 125
Turnovers 1.5 65 1.4 70

168
sun belt
betting preview
Conference realignment is all the rage in college football, but the Sun Belt did it before it was cool. James Madison, Marshall, Southern Miss, and Old
Dominion joined the conference in 2022 to give the league 14 teams and make the East Division one of the most compelling in the Group of Five.

Troy and South Alabama took advantage of the weaker West Division and went 7-1 in conference play, as the Trojans ultimately won 12 games and South
Alabama won 10. It was a fiercer battle in the East, where Coastal Carolina emerged victorious via tiebreaker over James Madison, but late-season injuries
cast a dark shadow over the Chanticleers to end the year.

Things look a little different this season, as last year’s East Division heavyweights both experienced substantial losses, which opens the door for
conference stalwart Appalachian State. The West may line up the same way, but it could be a more competitive division overall.

Full disclosure: The “Fun Belt” is one of my favorite conferences. The mid-week games are a real treat, and there are some legitimately good teams in this
league every single season. With contrasting styles across the conference, the games are usually exciting, and there are some strong athletes on the field.

This season, South Alabama (+290) and Troy (+310) top the conference odds, due in large part to the easier path to the conference title game. It may
simply come down to the head-to-head meeting on November 2 at Troy. Coastal Carolina (+450), Appalachian State (+700), and Marshall (+800) are the
top contenders from the other division.

2023 PROJECTED STANDINGS (BASED ON STEVE MAKINEN RATINGS)

2023 Schedule Strength All Games Conference Games DraftKings
Team SM PR (Rank) PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's O/U
EAST DIVISION
MARSHALL 40.5 35.13 (94) 7.4 4.6 5.1 2.9 7
COASTAL CAROLINA 37.5 32.73 (117) 7.2 4.8 4.9 3.1 7.5
APPALACHIAN ST 37.5 35.26 (91) 6.8 5.2 4.8 3.2 6.5
JAMES MADISON 39.5 32.17 (121) 7.6 4.4 4.6 3.4 8
GA SOUTHERN 33 33.13 (112) 6.0 6.0 3.9 4.1 6
GEORGIA ST 34 36.96 (79) 5.4 6.6 3.2 4.8 5.5
OLD DOMINION 27.5 36.4 (87) 3.2 8.8 1.9 6.1 3.5
WEST DIVISION
TROY 44.5 35.19 (92) 8.6 3.4 6.1 1.9 8
S ALABAMA 44 36.47 (86) 8.1 3.9 5.8 2.2 8
LA LAFAYETTE 38.5 31.58 (124) 7.7 4.3 5.2 2.8 6.5
SOUTHERN MISS 36 37.02 (77) 5.6 6.4 4.3 3.7 5
ARKANSAS ST 28 34.98 (97) 4.1 7.9 2.3 5.7 4.5
TEXAS ST UNIV 27.5 37.03 (76) 3.4 8.6 2.3 5.7 4.5
LA MONROE 24.5 36.75 (81) 2.9 9.1 1.7 6.3 3.5
169
 APPALACHIAN STATE HEAD COACH: SHAWN CLARK (4TH)
MOUNTAINEERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: FRANK PONCE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SCOTT SLOAN

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #86 OF 133

The 2022 season for Appalachian State was a major outlier. The Mountaineers
failed to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2013 and did
not participate in a bowl game because two of their six wins came against
FCS foes. It was such a strange season for App State, as they lost 63-61 in the
POWER RATING 37.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #7 OF 14

opener to North Carolina and then beat Texas A&M and Troy, but also lost to
lowly Texas State and went 1-4 in conference games decided by seven or fewer 2023 SCHEDULE
points. There are some positive indicators, but also some major questions. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 GARDNER WEBB -16 24.5
SCHEDULE 35.26
OFFENSE
For the first time in seemingly forever, the Mountaineers have a stable of 9/9 at North Carolina 18.5 53.5
STRENGTH #91 TOUGHEST OF 133
quarterbacks without experience. Redshirt freshman Ryan Burger may get the
first crack, but he had six pass attempts to his name last season. JUCO transfer
Joey Aguilar has experience but below D-I. App State will have to throw to keep
9/16 EAST CAROLINA
9/23 at Wyoming
-4
3
36
38
FIELD 2.8 / 0.3
opposing defenses honest, while RB Nate Noel leads a group of backs that will
9/30 at LA Monroe -10.5 24.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
get a ton of work.
10/10 COASTAL CAROLINA -2.5 37.5
Noel led the team with 604 yards and 6.9 yards per carry, but four backs
10/21 at Old Dominion -8.5 27.5
had at least 76 carries. It projects to be something of a timeshare again, but
the more experienced Noel should get more totes than anybody else. The 10/28 SOUTHERN MISS -4.5 36
2023 ODDS
top four receivers are all back. The quarterback that wins the job is likely to
run a bit more, as Frank Ponce returns after serving as the OC in 2021. The 11/4 MARSHALL 0.5 40.5

+700
Mountaineers have to replace both starting tackles, so QB runs may also be out 11/11 at Georgia St -1.5 34 ODDS TO WIN
of necessity to evade pass rushers. SUN BELT
11/18 at James Madison 5 39.5
DEFENSE 11/25 GA SOUTHERN -7.5 33
The Mountaineers also have a new defensive coordinator who is also a familiar
face. Scott Sloan was the defensive backs coach in Boone from 2011-16 and
then served as Georgia Southern’s defensive coordinator from 2018-21, so he
has lots of experience calling plays and plenty of Sun Belt exposure. There are ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 1000-1
11
only four returning starters on this defense. The top two tacklers, Nick Ross and NATIONAL
Andrew Parker, are among them, but top corner Steven Jones leaves with 15
pass breakups. STARTERS DEFENSE: 4
CHAMPIONSHIP

What makes App State’s mediocre season even more surprising is that they
were +9 in turnover margin, even though the defenders only had seven
interceptions. The Mountaineers were strong against the run with 3.6 yards
per carry allowed and only allowed 26.8 points per game, though that was the 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
most since 2014. The Mountaineers also took a big tumble on special teams OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-6, ATS: 3-9, O/U: 6-6
last season. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 32.8 26 31.8 106 9/3 NORTH CAROLINA (-3) 61-63 L L
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 13.4 37 12 124 9/10 at Texas A&M (18) 17-14 W W
This is a hard team to project for 2023. They were +8.1 points per game, +1.3
yards per play, and had that +9 TO margin, but finished 6-6. They outgained Plays Per Game 73 41 9/17 TROY (-14) 32-28 W L
opponents by over 100 yards in three of their six conference losses and Time of Possession 31:31 31 9/24 JAMES MADISON (-6) 28-32 L L
outgained North Carolina by 82 yards in that Week 1 defeat. A lot of indicators 3rd Down Conv. % 38.9% 61 45.9% 117 10/1 THE CITADEL (-39) 49-0 W W
are pointing up in that regard, but the further head coach Shawn Clark gets Total Yards Per Game 440.7 29 380.1 55 10/8 at Texas St Univ (-19) 24-36 L L
from Scott Satterfield and the one year of Eli Drinkwitz, the more you wonder
if the talent pipeline is the same. I ultimately like App State and have them for Yards Per Play 6 28 5.6 72 10/19 GEORGIA ST (-9) 42-17 W W
8.08 wins, while the season win total line is 6.5. I have them favored in all but Rush Attempts Per Game 40.5 24 10/29 ROBERT MORRIS (-50.5) 42-3 W L
two games, as they avoid both Troy and South Alabama. Rush Yards Per Game 191.9 28 129 33 11/3 at Coastal Carolina (-3) 28-35 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.7 39 3.9 38 11/12 at Marshall (-2.5) 21-28 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 30.9 76 11/19 OLD DOMINION (-16) 27-14 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.8% 52 62.6% 95 11/26 at Ga Southern (-6.5) 48-51 L L

OVER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 248.8 46 251.1 95
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.1 32 7.7 98
Turnovers 1 16 1.7 29

170
 ARKANSAS STATE HEAD COACH: BUTCH JONES (3RD)
RED WOLVES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: LOGAN KILGORE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: ROB HARLEY

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #118 OF 133

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have fallen on some very hard times. After
being used as a springboard by guys like Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, and
Bryan Harsin to bigger head coaching jobs, the Red Wolves administration
enjoyed six straight winning seasons from Blake Anderson before a 4-7
POWER RATING 28 CONFERENCE RANK: #11 OF 14

showing in 2020. They might be pretty excited with four wins this season after
a 5-19 performance in two years under Butch Jones. While being used as a one- 2023 SCHEDULE
and-done school limits continuity, it shows you made some good hires. Jones, DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
to this point, is not one.
9/2 at Oklahoma 32.5 57.5
SCHEDULE 34.98
OFFENSE 9/9 MEMPHIS 14 44.5
STRENGTH #97 TOUGHEST OF 133
The Red Wolves led in the fourth quarter in eight of their 12 games last
season, but they had major problems finishing. A lack of depth on both sides
of the ball didn’t help, and the depth is even thinner this season. Florida State
9/16 STONY BROOK
9/23 SOUTHERN MISS
-25.5
5.5
5
36
FIELD 2.2 / -0.2
transfer James Blackman is gone after posting a 14/3 TD/INT ratio with a
9/30 at Massachusetts -8.5 17.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
64.3% completion rate. Even though Blackman played fairly well, the Red
Wolves mustered just 4.9 yards per play. They couldn’t run the ball at all with 10/7 at Troy 19 44.5
2.8 yards per carry, so teams keyed in on the pass and limited explosive plays.
10/21 COASTAL CAROLINA 8 37.5
Both guys that threw passes for the Red Wolves last season are gone, as 10/28 at LA Monroe -0.5 24.5
2023 ODDS
Jones turns to Colorado transfer JT Shrout, who had a negative TD/INT ratio
last season. Opponents have racked up 86 sacks against the Red Wolves over 11/4 LA LAFAYETTE 8.5 38.5
the last two seasons, so even though the offensive line has several returning 11/11 at S Alabama 19 44 ODDS TO WIN
starters, that may not mean much. The top two pass catchers and four of the
11/18 TEXAS ST UNIV -3 27.5
60-1 SUN BELT
top five are gone. It looks like a rough year on offense in Jonesboro.
11/25 at Marshall 14.5 40.5
DEFENSE
The defense did improve in Year 2 under a quality defensive mind in Rob
Harley, who was the linebackers coach at Pitt. This side of the ball is in better
shape from a returning production standpoint, but this group still allowed over ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 10000-1
11
31 points per game last season. The Red Wolves did go from 7.2 yards per play NATIONAL
allowed to 5.8 from the first year to the second year but didn’t really improve
against the pass. They just didn’t get obliterated by the run. STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

The Red Wolves had a bottom-five red-zone defense, yet they somehow finished
50th in third-down defense. Leading tackler Jordan Carmouche and top corner
Kenneth Harris are both gone, but Jones and Harley did a lot of work to
bring in transfers. While Arkansas State had some close calls, they were still 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
outgained by 114 yards per game in Sun Belt play and got outgained by nine OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-9, ATS: 7-5, O/U: 7-5
of the 11 FBS teams they played. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 22 97 34 113 9/3 GRAMBLING (-25.5) 58-3 W W
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 13.2 32 12.7 111 9/10 at Ohio St (44.5) 12-45 L W
Arkansas State visits UMass this season after winning 35-33 in Jonesboro last
year, but the Red Wolves were outgained by 200 yards in that game. Their Plays Per Game 66.7 104 9/17 at Memphis (14.5) 32-44 L W
other wins came against Louisiana-Monroe and Grambling. The ULM win came Time of Possession 28:21 101 9/24 at Old Dominion (4.5) 26-29 L W
right after the Warhawks beat rival Louisiana for the first time in five years. 3rd Down Conv. % 27.7% 128 37.9% 55 10/1 LA MONROE (-7.5) 45-28 W W
The only games I have Arkansas State favored in are against Stony Brook and Total Yards Per Game 291.4 123 432.6 105 10/8 JAMES MADISON (11.5) 20-42 L L
at UMass, but they are only a 3.5-point-favorite there. Otherwise, they’re a pick
‘em at home against Texas State and a dog in every other game. With a win Yards Per Play 4.4 123 5.9 108 10/15 at Southern Miss (4.5) 19-20 L W
total of 4.5 and a projection of 3.26, this is one of my favorite win totals in the Rush Attempts Per Game 29.7 122 10/22 at La Lafayette (5.5) 18-38 L L
Sun Belt. Rush Yards Per Game 65.4 130 172.6 89 10/29 S ALABAMA (9) 3-31 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 2.2 130 4.2 66 11/12 MASSACHUSETTS (-17.53) 35-33 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 33.6 49 11/19 at Texas St Univ (6.5) 13-16 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.4% 59 62.5% 93 11/26 TROY (14) 19-48 L L

UNDER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 226 67 260 101
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.7 87 8.6 124
Turnovers 0.8 8 0.9 124

171
 COASTAL CAROLINA HEAD COACH: TIM BECK (1ST)
CHANTICLEERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TRAVIS TRICKETT
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CRAIG NAIVAR

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #85 OF 133

The good times on the teal turf in Conway, South Carolina, have made
for some great storylines over the last few seasons. The Coastal Carolina
Chanticleers are 31-7 over the last three seasons and have star quarterback
Grayson McCall back for probably one more season. However, head coach
POWER RATING 37.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #6 OF 14

Jamey Chadwell is now at Liberty, and many believe that new head coach
Tim Beck is a big step down. With an experienced team and a fairly favorable 2023 SCHEDULE
schedule, Coastal Carolina is one of the more polarizing teams going into the DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
season.
9/2 at UCLA 16 51.5
SCHEDULE 32.73
OFFENSE 9/9 JACKSONVILLE ST -7 32.5
STRENGTH #117 TOUGHEST OF 133
Was it Chadwell’s offense that made McCall a star, or is he just that good? If
FIELD 2.3 / 0.5
McCall stays healthy, he’ll be the all-time leading passer in Coastal Carolina 9/16 DUQUESNE -33.5 6
history. He’s already second and under 2,000 yards behind Alex Ross. He’ll 9/21 GEORGIA ST -5.5 34
have his top four wide receivers back, including leading rusher CJ Beasley, who
9/30 at Ga Southern -1.5 33
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
had 717 yards with a 5.1 average. Reese White should also be healthier this
season after having 5.5 yards per carry on 42 fewer attempts than Beasley. 10/10 at Appalachian St 2.5 37.5
10/21 at Arkansas St -8 28
What could be missing for the Chants is what made Chadwell’s offense so
special. All of the pre-snap motion that created mismatches and outnumbered 10/28 MARSHALL 1 40.5
2023 ODDS
situations are gone with Beck and Travis Trickett, who was the offensive
coordinator and QB coach at USF last season. The Bulls were 108th in passing 11/4 at Old Dominion -8.5 27.5

+450
yards per game, but they did run the ball really well to be 39th in yards per 11/11 TEXAS ST UNIV -12.5 27.5 ODDS TO WIN
play. Beck has been an OC at NC State, Texas, Ohio State, and Nebraska, so SUN BELT
11/18 at Army 0.5 36
some big schools. Given that Coastal’s offense dropped by 11.8 points per
game and 1.7 yards per play from 2021’s outrageous numbers, maybe the 11/25 JAMES MADISON 0 39.5
drop-off won’t be that big.

DEFENSE
The offense wasn’t nearly as potent, and that had a major, negative effect on ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 QB 1000-1
14
the defense. The Coastal Carolina defense crashed and burned last season, NATIONAL
allowing 10.2 more points per game and 1.2 more yards per play. The pass
defense gave up 94 more yards per game on average. With only three STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

returning starters, Coastal Carolina got outscored on the season, yet they still
managed to go 9-4.

Things really fell apart late in the year, though, as the Chants allowed 145
points in losses to James Madison, Troy, and East Carolina. Six of the top seven 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
tacklers are back this time around, and the depth appears to be a bit better, OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-4, ATS: 4-9, O/U: 8-5
but that was such a stark increase in points and yardage that you can’t help STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
but be skeptical of new defensive coordinator Craig Navier’s unit. Points Per Game 28.9 52 32.3 109 9/3 ARMY (-1.5) 38-28 W W
Yards Per Point 14.2 66 12.8 109 9/10 GARDNER WEBB (-32.5) 31-27 W L
OUTLOOK
While Coastal is stuck in the much harder division of the Sun Belt, they will Plays Per Game 69.2 81 9/17 BUFFALO (-12.5) 38-26 W L
avoid both Troy and South Alabama from the West Division, which is also true Time of Possession 32:10 17 9/22 at Georgia St (-2.5) 41-24 W W
for App State. The Chanticleers will not play a home game from September 3rd Down Conv. % 42.5% 34 42.2% 96 10/1 GA SOUTHERN (-10) 34-30 W L
21 to October 28 because of the bye week and three road games, so that’s an Total Yards Per Game 410.3 42 412.2 90 10/8 at La Monroe (-13) 28-21 W L
interesting schedule quirk. They also have road games at UCLA and Army. My
projection is for 7.24 wins with a win total of 8, as I worry that McCall isn’t as Yards Per Play 5.9 35 6.1 116 10/15 OLD DOMINION (-10.5) 21-49 L L
good of a fit for this offense, and the defense may not improve that much, if Rush Attempts Per Game 39.4 38 10/29 at Marshall (2.5) 24-13 W W
at all. Rush Yards Per Game 169.3 52 141.3 46 11/3 APPALACHIAN ST (3) 35-28 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.3 60 4.1 61 11/12 SOUTHERN MISS (-5) 26-23 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 27.6 105 11/26 at James Madison (15.5) 7-47 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 65.0% 21 62.5% 94 12/3 at Troy (6.5) 26-45 L L

UNDER 8
Passing Yards Per Game 241 52 270.8 113 12/27 vs. East Carolina (7) 29-53 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.7 10 8.9 129
Turnovers 1.4 59 1.4 66

172
 GEORGIA SOUTHERN HEAD COACH: CLAY HELTON (2ND)
EAGLES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRYAN ELLIS
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRANDON BAILEY

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #101 OF 133

I’ve been right a lot in my sports betting career, but I’ve been wrong a lot as
well. I was wrong about Georgia Southern last season. It seemed like a much
more difficult task to go from being a spread-option team to an air-it-out team,
but Clay Helton’s bunch did it with relative ease. The 6-7 record wasn’t overly
POWER RATING 33 CONFERENCE RANK: #10 OF 14

impressive, but way better than their season win total of 4 or 4.5, as the Eagles
racked up 6.2 yards per play and finished fourth in passing yards per game. 2023 SCHEDULE
Now in Year 2, this could be a legit contender in the East Division. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 THE CITADEL -24.5 12
SCHEDULE 33.13
OFFENSE
Kyle Vantrease was a one-year wonder in Statesboro, as he threw for 4,253 9/9 UAB -1.5 35
STRENGTH #112 TOUGHEST OF 133
yards with 27 touchdowns. He threw 16 picks, and Georgia Southern was -5
FIELD 3.3 / -0.3
in turnover margin, but Davis Brin transfers in from Tulsa as an extremely 9/16 at Wisconsin 24 54
experienced QB. Khaleb Hood and Derwin Burgess combined for 125 catches 9/23 at Ball St 0 30.5
and 1,642 yards as the Eagles’ top two receivers, and both are back this
9/30 COASTAL CAROLINA 1.5 37.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
season. Leading rusher Jalen White also returns after 10 touchdown totes and
914 yards. 10/14 at James Madison 10.5 39.5
10/21 LA MONROE -12.5 24.5
The Eagles racked up 6.2 yards per play and only gave up seven sacks. Most of
the offensive line returns intact this season, so Brin, who was banged up on a 10/26 GEORGIA ST -2 34
2023 ODDS
weekly basis last season for the Golden Hurricane, should be in line for a huge
year. Offensive coordinator Bryan Ellis has a better grasp on his personnel, and 11/4 at Texas St Univ -2.5 27.5
so does Helton, who has much better depth all around this season. 11/11 at Marshall 9.5 40.5 ODDS TO WIN

11/18 OLD DOMINION -9 27.5

18-1 SUN BELT
DEFENSE
This is the area of the team that needs help. Perhaps it will come in the form 11/25 at Appalachian St 7.5 37.5
of Brandon Bailey, who is the youngest defensive coordinator in the country at
the ripe old age of 28. He went from a grad assistant in 2016 to calling plays
at Arkansas-Monticello in 2018 before continuing as a grad student at Texas
A&M. He was Buffalo’s DC last season and must have impressed Helton in the ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 8 3000-1
12
Camellia Bowl after the Bulls beat his Eagles. NATIONAL

Only four starters are back on this defense, but that might be a good thing. STARTERS DEFENSE: 4
CHAMPIONSHIP

The Eagles gave up 6.5 yards per play and were absolutely exposed by being
on the field more often. Georgia Southern gave up over 3,000 rushing yards
on the season on 542 carries and more than 3,300 yards through the air on
433 pass attempts. Going from long, methodical drives as an option team to
defending behind an up-tempo aerial assault took its toll on a depth-shy D. 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
Georgia Southern was 15th in red zone TD% against, but they were tied for the OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 6-7
third-most red zone attempts allowed. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 30.5 41 33.7 112 9/3 MORGAN ST (-41.5) 59-7 W W
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 15.2 87 15.1 45 9/10 at Nebraska (23.5) 45-42 W W
Bailey has a big task, but the defense’s improvement could dramatically raise
the ceiling for this team. The offense should be quite potent yet again, and Plays Per Game 75.8 18 9/17 at UAB (12) 21-35 L L
neither Troy nor South Alabama appears on the schedule. There aren’t many Time of Possession 27:18 119 9/24 BALL ST (-9.5) 34-23 W W
“lost cause” games on the schedule. Helton not only improved the offense but 3rd Down Conv. % 45.5% 23 44.8% 114 10/1 at Coastal Carolina (10) 30-34 L W
also the special teams as well. Any modest upgrade from the defense makes Total Yards Per Game 463.6 16 508.7 129 10/8 at Georgia St (2.5) 33-41 L L
this team a contender. The season win total is 6, and my projection is for 6.19
wins, but I think this is a worthwhile East Division long shot at +750. Yards Per Play 6.1 24 6.6 125 10/15 JAMES MADISON (13) 45-38 W W
Rush Attempts Per Game 28.3 126 10/22 at Old Dominion (1.5) 28-23 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 137.2 82 236.9 128 11/5 S ALABAMA (3.5) 31-38 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.9 36 5.7 126 11/10 at La Lafayette (3.5) 17-36 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 47 2 11/19 MARSHALL (5.5) 10-23 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.0% 66 60.3% 61 11/26 APPALACHIAN ST (6.5) 51-48 W W

OVER 6
Passing Yards Per Game 326.4 5 271.8 114 12/27 vs. Buffalo (-6) 21-23 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.9 80 8.1 109
Turnovers 1.7 97 1.1 108

173
 GEORGIA STATE HEAD COACH: SHAWN ELLIOTT (7TH)
PANTHERS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TRENT MCKNIGHT
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CHAD STAGGS

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #99 OF 133

Sustaining success can be very tough at the Group of Five level. The Georgia
State Panthers found that out the hard way last season. After winning eight
games for the first time in program history as an FBS member in 2021, the
Panthers just about flipped their 8-5 record and finished 4-8 in 2022. The
POWER RATING 34 CONFERENCE RANK: #9 OF 14

losing season snapped a three-year run of making a bowl game, and now we
have to wonder if Shawn Elliott’s program can get back to its winning ways. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 8/31 RHODE ISLAND -12 24.5
SCHEDULE 36.96
Quarterback Darren Grainger returns after leading the team with 734 rushing
9/9 CONNECTICUT -5 32
STRENGTH #79 TOUGHEST OF 133
yards, and he was the only guy to attempt a pass. He threw for 2,443 yards with
an 18/7 TD/INT ratio and did virtually everything for the Panthers’ offense.
All-time leading rusher Tucker Gregg had a down year with 4.1 yards per carry,
9/16 at Charlotte -7 25
FIELD 2.5 / 0.2
though he did have 12 touchdowns in his final season. Georgia State’s offense
9/21 at Coastal Carolina 5.5 37.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
actually saw modest gains from 2021 to 2022, and a lot of starters are back, 9/30 TROY 8 44.5
along with a second-year offensive coordinator in Trent McKnight. 10/14 MARSHALL 4.5 40.5

2023 ODDS
10/21 at LA Lafayette 7.5 38.5
McKnight is actually in his seventh season with the program after coaching up
the wide receivers for five years prior. He’ll have to coach them up this season 10/26 at Ga Southern 2 33
because Jamari Thrash leaves after having three times the receiving yards of 11/4 JAMES MADISON 3.5 39.5
any other player with 1,122. His 61 catches were also more than double any ODDS TO WIN
11/11 APPALACHIAN ST 1.5 37.5
other player. With some losses at the skill positions and increased reliance on
11/18 at LSU 31.5 62.5
22-1 SUN BELT
Grainger, the Panthers’ offense has minimal margin for error.
11/25 at Old Dominion -4.5 27.5
DEFENSE
The defense took a step back last season, allowing over 30 points for the
fourth time in five seasons. The Panthers had 11 fewer sacks than the season
ODDS TO WIN
prior but did have 13 interceptions. Antavious Lane and Jacorey Crawford, the RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 5000-1
12
NATIONAL

STARTERS
top two defensive backs for the Panthers, are gone along with Quavian White, CHAMPIONSHIP
who led the team with four picks. Elliott and new defensive coordinator Chad DEFENSE: 5
Staggs scoured the FCS ranks for transfers, who now have big shoes to fill.

The life of a G5 program is like that of a turnstile. Players come in and players
go out via the transfer portal, and that’s going to be what determines the
ceiling for this defense. If history is any indication, the ceiling is low. However,
Georgia State only allowed 40 red zone attempts last season, which ranked
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 6-5, O/U: 6-6
tied for 23rd, but opponents scored 30 TD, which tied for 85th. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 30 44 31.2 102 9/3 at South Carolina (12.5) 14-35 L L
OUTLOOK 13.9 53 12.8 108
Yards Per Point 9/10 NORTH CAROLINA (7) 28-35 L T
The Panthers draw Troy, but do avoid South Alabama from the West, so that
Plays Per Game 75.6 21 9/17 CHARLOTTE (-19.5) 41-42 L L
helps from a league play standpoint. The nonconference schedule isn’t all that
daunting, as Rhode Island, UConn, and Charlotte are winnable games. LSU is Time of Possession 28:52 89 9/22 COASTAL CAROLINA (2.5) 24-41 L L
not. But the Panthers have been a fairly inconsistent, high-variance team. They 3rd Down Conv. % 40.7% 41 41.7% 93 10/1 at Army (9) 31-14 W W
started 0-4 last season, won four of five, and then lost three straight, but the Total Yards Per Game 417.3 37 399.3 78 10/8 GA SOUTHERN (-2.5) 41-33 W W
early losses included a close loss to North Carolina and a loss to Charlotte as Yards Per Play 5.5 53 5.6 74 10/19 at Appalachian St (9) 17-42 L L
almost a three-touchdown favorite. Georgia State’s win total is 5.5, and I have Rush Attempts Per Game 47.9 5 10/29 OLD DOMINION (-3.5) 31-17 W W
them for 5.76 wins, but I’d still lean Under, as they are only favored in four Rush Yards Per Game 213.8 12 170.6 85 11/5 at Southern Miss (2) 42-14 W W
games for me.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.5 51 4.3 80 11/12 LA MONROE (-13.5) 28-31 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 24.8 120 11/19 at James Madison (10) 40-42 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 58.4% 86 60.5% 65 11/26 at Marshall (6.5) 23-28 L W

UNDER 5.5
Passing Yards Per Game 203.6 97 228.8 62
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.2 21 7.6 95
Turnovers 1.6 88 2.1 7

174
 JAMES MADISON HEAD COACH: CURT CIGNETTI (5TH)
DUKES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MIKE SHANAHAN
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BRYANT HAINES

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #73 OF 133

The first season as an FBS member was a good one for James Madison.
Even though the Dukes were ineligible for a bowl game and wound up only
playing 11 games, they went 8-3 and cracked the Top 25, only to lose to
Georgia Southern to kick off a three-game skid. Curt Cignetti and everybody
POWER RATING 39.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #4 OF 14

else around the football program had to be thrilled. Now, with big losses on
offense, reality as a Division I-A team may set in. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE SCHEDULE 32.17
9/2 BUCKNELL -46 -2.5
The Dukes were able to bring former Colorado State QB Todd Centeio along for
the bump to FBS, and he had a fine season, throwing for nearly 2,700 yards 9/9 at Virginia 2 39
STRENGTH #121 TOUGHEST OF 133
and running for nearly 400 more with 32 total touchdowns. With Centeio
leaving, the Dukes have very little experience at the position. Cignetti recruit
Alonza Barnett had one pass attempt while redshirting last season. Billy Atkins
9/16 at Troy 6.5 44.5
FIELD 3.5 / 0.4
had 43 pass attempts and only completed 44.2% of his tosses. Arizona transfer
9/23 at Utah St -8 30
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Jordan McCloud and Wake Forest transfer Brett Griffis are also on the roster. 9/30 S ALABAMA 1 44
10/14 GA SOUTHERN -10.5 33
Not only does JMU have nobody proven at the QB position, a 1,000-yard
receiver left in Kris Thornton. Nobody else had more than 401 yards or 24
catches, and that guy, Reggie Brown, is the only returnee of the top five in
10/19 at Marshall
10/28 OLD DOMINION
2.5
-15.5
40.5
27.5
2023 ODDS
yards. Leading rusher Percy Agyei-Obese left after rushing for 5.7 yards per
carry on a team that mustered just 4.3 yards per attempt. The offensive line is 11/4 at Georgia St -3.5 34
full of upperclassmen with experience, but a new QB and new skill guys drop 11/11 CONNECTICUT -11.5 32 ODDS TO WIN
the Dukes several notches. NA SUN BELT
11/18 APPALACHIAN ST -5 37.5
DEFENSE 11/25 at Coastal Carolina 0 37.5
Defensively, you’ve got to hand it to the Dukes. They graduated to FBS and
only had minimal regression across the board. They held opponents to 20.9
points per game, with just 4.7 yards per play and just 2.5 yards per carry. JMU
did avoid both South Alabama and Troy from the other division and caught ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 50000-1
13
Coastal Carolina at a very opportune time with Grayson McCall injured. Weak NATIONAL
schedule or not, it was still a very impressive performance from the Dukes, but
the schedule is tougher this season. STARTERS DEFENSE: 7
CHAMPIONSHIP

The top three tacklers and four of the top five are back, as James Madison also
racked up 38 sacks in the first FBS season after having 41 in three additional
games in 2021. Top sack artist Isaac Ukwu did hit the transfer portal, but
defensive coordinator Bryant Haines has a lot of the same guys to work with 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
this season, including plenty of upperclassmen. JMU was fourth in third-down OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 8-3, ATS: 7-4, O/U: 7-4
defense last season, a mark I doubt they’ll replicate. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 34.4 21 22.3 26 9/3 MIDDLE TENN ST (-4.5) 44-7 W W
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 13.1 27 13.4 92 9/10 NORFOLK ST (-41.5) 63-7 W W
As mentioned, along with the gauntlet that is the East Division, James Madison
gets the top two teams in the West, with Troy on the road and South Alabama Plays Per Game 76 17 9/24 at Appalachian St (6) 32-28 W W
at home. The nonconference slate also features a road game against Utah Time of Possession 33:32 7 10/1 TEXAS ST UNIV (-21.5) 40-13 W W
State in what is the third straight away contest for the Dukes, so that profiles as 3rd Down Conv. % 38.3% 70 29.0% 6 10/8 at Arkansas St (-11.5) 42-20 W W
a really tough spot, especially sandwiched between Troy and South Alabama. Total Yards Per Game 451.5 24 298 6 10/15 at Ga Southern (-13) 38-45 L L
The win total of 8 is quite optimistic for JMU, as I have them down for 7.29
wins, and they have three games in my power ratings where they are -1.5 or Yards Per Play 5.9 33 4.5 6 10/22 MARSHALL (-9.5) 12-26 L L
smaller. Rush Attempts Per Game 43.5 10 11/5 at Louisville (6.5) 10-34 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 181.9 38 87.3 2 11/12 at Old Dominion (-7) 37-3 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.2 67 2.6 1 11/19 GEORGIA ST (-10) 42-40 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 30.3 82 11/26 COASTAL CAROLINA (-15.5) 47-7 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 60.1% 71 55.7% 14

UNDER 8
Passing Yards Per Game 269.6 28 210.7 35
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.9 7 7.1 59
Turnovers 2 119 2 8

175
 LOUISIANA HEAD COACH: MICHAEL DESORMEAUX (2ND)
RAGIN’ CAJUNS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: TIM LEGER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: LAMAR MORGAN

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #82 OF 133

A play here or a play there and things could have been very different for the
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns last season. They lost by six points to Troy and three
points to South Alabama, who wound up finishing No. 1 and No. 2 in the West
Division. When all was said and done, Louisiana had its first losing season
POWER RATING 38.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #5 OF 14

since 2017, thanks to a 23-16 loss in the Independence Bowl. It could’ve been
a special first year as head coach for Michael Desormeaux, but now the focus 2023 SCHEDULE
falls on his second season. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 NORTHWESTERN ST -37 5
SCHEDULE 31.58
OFFENSE
Regression was pretty inevitable for the Ragin’ Cajuns. They lost a good bit of 9/9 at Old Dominion -9.5 27.5
STRENGTH #124 TOUGHEST OF 133
production on both sides of the ball after having 20 returning starters in 2021,
FIELD 3.4 / 0.4
and this team was +25 in turnover margin in 2020 and 2021 en route to going 9/16 at UAB -1.5 35
23-2. Without Levi Lewis and others, the offense was sure to slide, and that did 9/23 BUFFALO -10.5 31.5
happen, as the team gained just 5.3 yards per play and managed just 26.2
9/30 at Minnesota 14.5 50.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
points per contest. You have to go back to 2016 to find the last time Louisiana
had offensive numbers like that. 10/7 TEXAS ST UNIV -15 27.5
10/21 GEORGIA ST -7.5 34
The weird part is that Louisiana did have a combined 27/10 TD/INT ratio from
the quarterbacks, and all three return here. Ben Wooldridge and Chandler 10/28 at S Alabama 8 44
2023 ODDS
Fields were both limited by injuries in the spring, so the position may be in a
state of flux. Leading rusher Chris Smith is gone, but Dre’lyn Washington was 11/4 at Arkansas St -8.5 28
more explosive at times anyway. The bigger loss is leading receiver Michael 11/9 SOUTHERN MISS -6 36 ODDS TO WIN
Jefferson, who had more than double the catches and receiving yards of
11/18 at Troy 7.5 44.5
10-1 SUN BELT
anybody else.
11/25 LA MONROE -18 24.5
DEFENSE
Louisiana’s defensive numbers slid a little as well, though not as much as
the offense’s production. The Ragin’ Cajuns still held opponents to just 5.3
yards per play and 22.8 points per game, but the losses are very heavy this ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 QB 1000-1
9
time around. After going from 10 returning starters in 2021 to five in 2022, NATIONAL
Louisiana only brings back three starters this year. The top four tacklers are all
gone, and sixth-ranked tackler Andre Jones was drafted by the Commanders. STARTERS DEFENSE: 3
CHAMPIONSHIP

The defense will have to be completely rebuilt by LaMar Morgan, who is just a
second-year defensive coordinator. On the plus side, Morgan was a defensive
back at Louisiana and has mostly coached them in his career, which helps
because there are zero returning starters in the secondary. For a team that 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
dropped by 10 sacks year over year and loses the top two sack men, that OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 6-7, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 6-7
secondary could be under duress with a depressed pass rush. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 26.3 70 24.2 40 9/3 SE LOUISIANA (-13) 24-7 W W
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 13.9 51 15.3 38 9/10 E MICHIGAN (-11) 49-21 W W
After hosting Troy and South Alabama last season, Louisiana goes to Alabama
twice in four weeks for those games. Minnesota and Buffalo are part of the Plays Per Game 70.5 61 9/17 at Rice (-12.5) 21-33 L L
nonconference schedule. The Desormeaux hire was met with some skepticism, Time of Possession 29:32 73 9/24 at La Monroe (-9.5) 17-21 L L
and he took a lot of Billy Napier’s roster and went 6-7. What will he do 3rd Down Conv. % 38.2% 72 39.6% 73 10/1 S ALABAMA (8.5) 17-20 L W
now with a lot of new faces in new spaces on the field? I can’t say I’m very Total Yards Per Game 365.8 80 370.9 46 10/12 at Marshall (10) 23-13 W W
optimistic, despite my projection for 7.21 wins. That just speaks to how weak
the schedule is in terms of Louisiana’s favorite roles. I actually think this team Yards Per Play 5.2 81 5.2 45 10/22 ARKANSAS ST (-5.5) 38-18 W W
could bottom out, and I like the Under, despite my projection. Rush Attempts Per Game 34.3 86 10/27 at Southern Miss (-2.5) 24-39 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 144.8 69 144.9 51 11/5 TROY (3.5) 17-23 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.2 64 4 49 11/10 GA SOUTHERN (-3.5) 36-17 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 34.3 42 11/19 at Florida St (25) 17-49 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 56.6% 100 57.1% 20 11/26 at Texas St Univ (-5) 41-13 W W

UNDER 6.5
Passing Yards Per Game 221 76 226 59 12/23 vs. Houston (6) 16-23 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.4 103 7 46
Turnovers 1.6 88 1.8 20

176
 LOUISIANA-MONROE HEAD COACH: TERRY BOWDEN (3RD)
WARHAWKS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MATT KUBIK
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: VIC KOENNING

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #126 OF 133

Louisiana-Monroe has been the king of the fun upset the last two seasons.
In 2021, the Warhawks beat Troy as a 23.5-point underdog, Liberty as a
33-point pup, and South Alabama as a two-touchdown dog. In 2022, two of
ULM’s four wins came as an underdog, topping Louisiana in the Battle on the
POWER RATING 24.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #14 OF 14

Bayou getting 9.5, and beating Georgia State on the road getting almost two
touchdowns. It’s a hard way to make a living, and Terry Bowden’s bunch is 2023 SCHEDULE
only 8-16 over the last two seasons, but they’re getting the most out of their DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
victories.
9/2 ARMY 8.5 36
SCHEDULE 36.75
OFFENSE 9/9 LAMAR -26.5 1
STRENGTH #81 TOUGHEST OF 133
Matt Kubik’s second stint as OC in Monroe started a lot like his first. Kubik
inherited an offense that managed just 4.5 yards per play in 2015 and took
them up to 5.1 in 2016 during his first season. The 2021 Warhawks averaged
9/16 at Texas A&M
9/30 APPALACHIAN ST
35
10.5
56
37.5
FIELD 2.7 / -0.5
4.6 yards per play, and Kubik took them up to 5.2. By the time he left ULM
10/7 S ALABAMA 16.5 44
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
in 2019, the team averaged 6.4 yards per play and got him a job at Southern
Miss. 10/14 at Texas St Univ 6 27.5
10/21 at Ga Southern 12.5 33
Progress is always a good thing, but progress may be hard to make this
season. QB Chandler Rogers is out, and a whole cast of inexperienced signal 10/28 ARKANSAS ST 0.5 28
2023 ODDS
callers will battle it out to see who emerges victorious. The position could be in
a state of flux, which is also true of the running back position, though leading 11/4 at Southern Miss 14 36
rusher Malik Jackson only had 3.6 yards per carry, and the team had 3.5. The 11/11 TROY 17.5 44.5 ODDS TO WIN
team went to the transfer portal to find help at RB and WR, but none of it will
11/18 at Ole Miss 34.5 56
150-1 SUN BELT
matter if Kubik can’t find a QB.
11/25 at LA Lafayette 18 38.5
DEFENSE
The Warhawks defense has allowed over six yards per play every season
since 2015, and it will take a lot of improvement to avoid that fate again. Vic
Koenning got a second chance to be a defensive coordinator after West Virginia ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 5 10000-1
10
players accused him of mistreatment in 2019. The defense improved by 0.2 NATIONAL
yards per play though they allowed more points than the previous season.
This year’s unit will be missing top tackler Zack Woodard, but four of the top STARTERS DEFENSE: 5
CHAMPIONSHIP

tacklers are back otherwise.

Koenning has been a very successful DC, but it does take time for his scheme
to take hold. The Warhawks only had six interceptions last season and finished
-7 in turnover margin. The defense got worn down by the run in a lot of games 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
and finished in the bottom 20 in third-down conversion rate against. We’ll find OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 6-6
out about the run defense very quickly with a season opener against Army. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 21.2 101 36.9 124 9/3 at Texas (37.5) 10-52 L L
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 15 83 11.9 125 9/10 NICHOLLS ST (-4.5) 35-7 W W
ULM has a flair for the dramatic and could pull a couple more upsets, but I
only have the Warhawks favored in two games this season. They should take Plays Per Game 65.4 115 9/17 at Alabama (49.5) 7-63 L L
care of Lamar, and I have them -3 against Arkansas State, so that is hardly a Time of Possession 29:19 77 9/24 LA LAFAYETTE (9.5) 21-17 W W
gimme game. With a lot to figure out on offense, the defense will be under a 3rd Down Conv. % 38.6% 66 43.5% 111 10/1 at Arkansas St (7.5) 28-45 L L
lot of pressure again. My projection is for 3.01 wins, and the market has 3.5 Total Yards Per Game 317 113 438.5 108 10/8 COASTAL CAROLINA (13) 21-28 L W
with heavy Under juice. They may pick off a team or two, but they play nine
straight weeks against Sun Belt foes and Ole Miss because of an early bye Yards Per Play 4.8 102 6.2 117 10/15 at S Alabama (17) 34-41 L W
week. There isn’t enough depth for that. Rush Attempts Per Game 34.5 83 10/22 at Army (6.5) 24-48 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 116.4 99 205.6 120 11/5 TEXAS ST UNIV (-2.5) 31-30 W L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.4 105 4.9 110 11/12 at Georgia St (13.5) 31-28 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 27.7 102 11/19 at Troy (14.5) 16-34 L L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 65.6% 18 67.1% 124 11/26 SOUTHERN MISS (3) 10-20 L L

UNDER 3.5
Passing Yards Per Game 200.6 99 232.8 72
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.2 68 8.4 121
Turnovers 1.4 54 0.6 131

177
 MARSHALL HEAD COACH: CHARLES HUFF (3RD)
THUNDERING HERD
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: CLINT TRICKETT
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JASON SEMORE / CHEVIS JACKSON

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #71 OF 133

The quietest nine-win season in college football came out of Huntington,
West Virginia. The Marshall Thundering Herd went 9-4 with one of the most
suffocating defenses in the nation. Unfortunately, Marshall also had one of
the most boring offenses in the country. Herd games averaged 40.5 combined
POWER RATING 40.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #3 OF 14

points. Their eight conference games featured 35 combined points per game,
with Marshall averaging 19 and opponents coming away with 16. The bowl
game against UConn in Myrtle Beach had a whopping 619 yards of combined
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
offense. But, sometimes boring wins, and boring won a lot for Marshall in
2022. 9/2 ALBANY -28 15
SCHEDULE 35.13
OFFENSE 9/9 at East Carolina -2 36
STRENGTH #94 TOUGHEST OF 133

1.9 / 0.4
Marshall’s keep-away strategy was effective last season, as the Herd finished
25th in average time of possession and ran for over 200 yards per game. They 9/23 VIRGINIA TECH -3 39.5
FIELD
averaged just 4.5 yards per carry, but they leaned on the opposition by having
early-down success with the run and the occasional play-action toss or swing
9/30 OLD DOMINION -15 27.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
pass. Marshall was actually just 84th in the nation in third-down conversion 10/7 at NC State 10.5 48.5
rate, despite being 25th in number of plays run. 10/14 at Georgia St -4.5 34

2023 ODDS
Marshall was also just 113th in the nation in TD% in the red zone at 51.02% 10/19 JAMES MADISON -2.5 39.5
with 25 touchdowns in 49 tries. Second-year offensive coordinator Clint Trickett 10/28 at Coastal Carolina -1 37.5
will try to get more out of incumbent starter Cam Fancher, who ran for 466
yards and only threw for 1,558 after taking over for Henry Colombi. Fancher 11/4 at Appalachian St -0.5 37.5
had a 10/6 TD/INT ratio. Perhaps the pressure will shift off of him a bit with
+800
11/11 GA SOUTHERN -9.5 33 ODDS TO WIN
the return of Rasheen Ali, who missed the first 10 games with a knee injury. SUN BELT
Khalan Laborn ran for 1,513 yards and 15 touchdowns in his stead, but he is 11/18 at S Alabama 6 44
now in the NFL as a UDFA with the 49ers.
11/25 ARKANSAS ST -14.5 28
DEFENSE
Marshall’s defense tied for fifth in the nation in takeaways with 29. Only five
teams forced more interceptions than the 18 that the Herd came away with,
ODDS TO WIN
and they also scooped 11 fumbles. It wasn’t just the rash of turnovers that RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 QB 1000-1
11
NATIONAL

STARTERS
helped. Opponents only mustered 93 rush yards per game and 2.9 yards per
carry. Overall, opponents only managed 4.6 yards per play. The losses are CHAMPIONSHIP
DEFENSE: 4
heavy on defense, though, as a new defensive coordinator takes over in Jason
Semore. Lance Guidry took the same position at Miami (FL).

Top tackler Eli Neal returns, along with top sack man Owen Porter, but only
three of the top 10 tacklers are back. Marshall will run a 4-2-5 under Semore,
and there are players to replace at each level of the defense, including four in
the secondary. After allowing 34 points to Bowling Green, Marshall didn’t allow
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
more than 24 points the rest of the way, so this group came together very OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 9-4, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 3-10
quickly, and maybe the same thing can happen this season. Marshall led the STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
nation by more than 3% in third-down defense last season. Points Per Game 21.4 100 18 8 9/3 NORFOLK ST (-41) 55-3 W W
Yards Per Point 17.6 115 18 8 9/10 at Notre Dame (20.5) 26-21 W W
OUTLOOK Plays Per Game 74.9 26 9/17 at Bowling Green (-17.5) 31-34 L L
Defensive regression looks likely with all the moving parts and some
potentially unsustainable stats, but the offense also moved the ball effectively, Time of Possession 30:56 40 9/24 at Troy (-3) 7-16 L L
protected it well, and failed to capitalize on scoring chances. That means 3rd Down Conv. % 35.6% 91 25.5% 1 10/1 GARDNER WEBB (-31) 28-7 W L
Marshall could be in line for more points, especially with a more experienced Total Yards Per Game 377 70 324.8 16 10/12 LA LAFAYETTE (-10) 13-23 L L
QB and less uncertainty at the position. Marshall’s schedule is tough, though.
While Coastal Carolina and James Madison are rebuilding, the Herd face South Yards Per Play 5 94 4.6 10 10/22 at James Madison (9.5) 26-12 W W
Alabama on the road, along with NC State in nonconference action. Marshall Rush Attempts Per Game 44.6 8 10/29 COASTAL CAROLINA (-2.5) 13-24 L L
plays six road games, and five of those teams made bowl games last season. Rush Yards Per Game 188 35 105.5 12 11/5 at Old Dominion (-3.5) 12-0 W W
Despite the tough schedule, my projection is for 7.78 wins with a win total of 7.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.2 66 3.2 6 11/12 APPALACHIAN ST (2.5) 28-21 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 27.6 104 11/19 at Ga Southern (-5.5) 23-10 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 58.6% 84 53.2% 4 11/26 GEORGIA ST (-6.5) 28-23 W L

OVER 7
Passing Yards Per Game 189 111 219.3 49 12/19 vs. Connecticut (-12) 28-14 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.8 84 6.4 18
Turnovers 1.5 83 2.1 6

178
 OLD DOMINION HEAD COACH: RICKY RAHNE (3RD)
MONARCHS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: KEVIN DECKER
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: BLAKE SEILER

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #121 OF 133

The move from Conference USA to the Sun Belt did not work out for Old
Dominion last season. The Monarchs went from making a bowl game to
finishing with a 3-9 record. They went 2-6 in league play, though that did
include a huge win over Coastal Carolina on the teal turf. It was a shame
POWER RATING 27.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #13 OF 14

because the season started with a monumental win for the program over
Virginia Tech, but those magical moments were few and far between. As Ricky 2023 SCHEDULE
Rahne starts his fourth season with the program and third with football games, DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
the Monarchs are in a rebuilding year.
9/2 at Virginia Tech 14.5 39.5
SCHEDULE 36.40
OFFENSE 9/9 LA LAFAYETTE 9.5 38.5
STRENGTH #87 TOUGHEST OF 133
ODU did not play in 2020 because of COVID, so going 6-7 in 2021 was a
FIELD 2 / -0.2
minor miracle, especially after a 1-6 start. Reality set in with a step up in 9/16 WAKE FOREST 16 45.5
class moving to the Sun Belt East Division. Things don’t look too promising 9/23 TEXAS A&M-COMM -17.5 11.5
this season either. Quarterback Hayden Wolff transferred out, as did backup
9/30 at Marshall 15 40.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
Brendon Clark, so nobody on the ODU roster has a pass attempt with the
program. Even likely starter Grant Wilson transferred in from Fordham with 10/7 at Southern Miss 11 36
only 13 attempts to his name.
10/21 APPALACHIAN ST 8.5 37.5
Rahne, who played QB at Cornell, has a lot of unanswered questions at the 10/28 at James Madison 15.5 39.5
2023 ODDS
position. To make matters worse, leading rusher Blake Watson transferred
out after amassing 916 yards on 159 carries. Top wide receiver Ali Jennings 11/4 COASTAL CAROLINA 8.5 37.5
also bolted. Returning production is very hard to find for Rahne and first-year 11/11 at Liberty 12.5 36.5 ODDS TO WIN
offensive coordinator Kevin Decker, who is the reason why Wilson transferred
11/18 at Ga Southern 9 33
80-1 SUN BELT
in from Fordham, as he was there as the OC last season. Fordham did have one
of the nation’s most potent offenses, but this is a huge leap in competition. 11/25 GEORGIA ST 4.5 34

DEFENSE
All things considered, the defense really battled. The offense mustered just
19.5 points per game, which gave the defense no margin for error. They tried, ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 4 5000-1
7
allowing 26.6 points per game and 5.7 yards per play. ODU was dead last in NATIONAL
the nation by almost a full minute in time of possession on offense, so the
defense was on the field a ton. STARTERS DEFENSE: 3
CHAMPIONSHIP

Super sophomore Jason Henderson had 186 tackles for the Monarchs last
season. He’s one of two guys with more than 40 tackles to return this season.
The Monarchs also lost 11 pass breakups from Tobias Harris and also lost Tre
Hawkins, who was a sixth-round pick for the Giants. The defense did yeoman’s 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
work last season to keep the Monarchs in games, but with three returning OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 3-9, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 3-8
starters and low hopes on offense, it could be a long year. STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
Points Per Game 19.5 111 26.6 59 9/2 VIRGINIA TECH (6) 20-17 W W
OUTLOOK
Yards Per Point 17.5 114 16.8 16 9/10 at East Carolina (13) 21-39 L L
Virginia Tech will be out for revenge in Blacksburg in Week 1, as the Monarchs
also play Louisiana, Wake Forest, and an FCS opponent in the nonconference. Plays Per Game 63.3 126 9/17 at Virginia (9) 14-16 L W
They miss Troy and South Alabama in crossover play with the West Division, Time of Possession 24:07 131 9/24 ARKANSAS ST (-4.5) 29-26 W L
but I’m not sure that matters. This is a rebuilding year for Rahne in hopes 3rd Down Conv. % 29.6% 121 41.2% 86 10/1 LIBERTY (3.5) 24-38 L L
of putting something together in 2024 or 2025. I have the Monarchs as a Total Yards Per Game 341.8 100 447.5 115 10/15 at Coastal Carolina (10.5) 49-21 W W
touchdown or more underdog in all 11 games against FBS competition. I
project them for 3.21 wins, with the Texas A&M-Commerce game in “gimme” Yards Per Play 5.4 62 5.6 81 10/22 GA SOUTHERN (-1.5) 23-28 L L
territory, but Under 3.5 is the play with this team. Rush Attempts Per Game 25.5 129 10/29 at Georgia St (3.5) 17-31 L L
Rush Yards Per Game 94.6 124 203.3 118 11/5 MARSHALL (3.5) 0-12 L L
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.7 88 4.3 82 11/12 JAMES MADISON (7) 3-37 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 34.8 38 11/19 at Appalachian St (16) 14-27 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 56.7% 99 64.8% 113 11/26 at S Alabama (16.5) 20-27 L W

UNDER 3.5
Passing Yards Per Game 247.2 49 244.3 88
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.1 73 8.2 114
Turnovers 1.5 72 1.6 38

179
 SOUTH ALABAMA HEAD COACH: KANE WOMMACK (3RD)
JAGUARS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MAJOR APPLEWHITE
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: COREY BATOON

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #62 OF 133

What a season it was for Kane Wommack’s crew in Mobile. South Alabama had
never had a winning season as an FBS member, but the Jaguars rewrote the
record books and rattled off 10 wins. The Jags are still searching for their first
bowl win in program history, so that will be among Wommack’s chief goals this
POWER RATING 44 CONFERENCE RANK: #2 OF 14

season, and he has the team to do it. With a ton of returning production and a
weak division, more records may be broken. 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/2 at Tulane 8.5 49
SCHEDULE 36.47
Both sides of the ball improved for South Alabama last season, even with the
9/9 SE LOUISIANA -18.5 28.5
STRENGTH #86 TOUGHEST OF 133
loss of 2021 QB Jake Bentley. Carter Bradley beat out Desmond Trotter for the
job and threw for 3,343 yards with a 28/12 TD/INT ratio. He could cut down
on the picks this season with his top two pass catchers and six of the top seven
9/16 at Oklahoma St 6.5 47.5
FIELD 3 / -0.2
back in the fold. He also gets Memphis transfer Javon Ivory to line up with top
9/23 C MICHIGAN -14.5 32.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
returnees Devin Voisin and Caullin Lacy. 9/30 at James Madison -1 39.5
10/7 at LA Monroe -16.5 24.5
The top three rushers are all back as well, including 1,000-yard man
2023 ODDS
10/17 SOUTHERN MISS -11 36
La’Damian Webb, who was a Sun Belt first-teamer with 13 rushing scores. The
depth here is strong, as evidenced by all the returning production at the skill 10/28 LA LAFAYETTE -8 38.5
positions and also the presence of Trotter, who is actually the program’s third 11/2 at Troy 3 44.5
all-time leading passer. Offensive coordinator Major Applewhite is also in his
+290
11/11 ARKANSAS ST -19 28 ODDS TO WIN
third year with a lot of the same players. This group improved by 0.6 yards per SUN BELT
play from ‘21 to ‘22, and I’d expect improvement again. 11/18 MARSHALL -6 40.5
11/25 at Texas St Univ -14 27.5
DEFENSE
Wommack was a top-flight defensive coordinator before becoming a head
coach, and he seems to have a good one in Corey Batoon. The Jaguars shaved
ODDS TO WIN
more than five points per game off their total last season and 0.3 yards per RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 1000-1
18
NATIONAL

STARTERS
play. The defense really stiffened up against the run and only allowed 3.3 CHAMPIONSHIP
yards per carry, which ranked 15th in the nation. The top six tacklers are back DEFENSE: 9
this season, and once again, many of these players have been around since the
Wommack regime began.

Usually, it is a huge blow when a program like South Alabama loses an

NFL-caliber player, but the loss of Darrell Luter may not be that big of a deal
because Yam Banks is back after six interceptions and 11 pass breakups. South
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 10-3, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 8-4
Alabama did give up some yardage through the air and actually had fewer STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
sacks in 2022, but improvement is not out of the question. Points Per Game 29.8 45 22.5 28 9/3 NICHOLLS ST (-13.5) 48-7 W W
Yards Per Point 14 56 15.5 33 9/10 at C Michigan (6) 38-24 W W
OUTLOOK
Plays Per Game 74.8 27 9/17 at UCLA (15.5) 31-32 L W
While South Alabama went 10-3, the Jaguars weren’t exactly dominant. Of
their seven conference wins, five were by seven or fewer points. Red zone Time of Possession 32:31 14 9/24 LOUISIANA TECH (-13) 38-14 W W
defense played a huge role, as the Jags were tied for fourth in TD% against 3rd Down Conv. % 44.2% 30 32.3% 14 10/1 at La Lafayette (-8.5) 20-17 W L
inside the 20, surrendering only 18 TD in 42 attempts. Even if there are some Total Yards Per Game 417 38 347.8 30 10/15 LA MONROE (-17) 41-34 W L
mild regressions in the key situational stats, the schedule is pretty weak, Yards Per Play 5.6 51 5.2 39 10/20 TROY (-3) 6-10 L L
though the head-to-head meeting with Troy is on the road. The win total line is Rush Attempts Per Game 38.4 47 10/29 at Arkansas St (-9) 31-3 W W
8, and my projection is for 8.83 wins, with South Alabama favored in 10 of 12 Rush Yards Per Game 154.1 62 98.1 6 11/5 at Ga Southern (-3.5) 38-31 W W
games, including -1 at Troy.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 4 73 3.5 18 11/12 TEXAS ST UNIV (-16.5) 38-21 W W
Pass Attempts Per Game 34.4 39 11/19 at Southern Miss (-7.5) 27-20 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 64.2% 32 60.2% 58 11/26 OLD DOMINION (-16.5) 27-20 W L

OVER 8
Passing Yards Per Game 262.9 34 249.7 92 12/21 vs. W Kentucky (-4) 23-44 L L
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.6 48 6.8 36
Turnovers 1.3 48 1.5 51

180
 SOUTHERN MISS HEAD COACH: WILL HALL (3RD)
GOLDEN EAGLES
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: SAM GREGG
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: DAN O’BRIEN

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #93 OF 133

Southern Miss was Team Chaos last season. The Golden Eagles went 7-6,
which represented a four-win improvement in head coach Will Hall’s second
season. Six of the 13 games were decided by seven or fewer points, including
a four-overtime loss to Liberty to open the season. The swing game to fall on
POWER RATING 36 CONFERENCE RANK: #8 OF 14

the right side of .500 was the first bowl win since 2016 for the program, with a
38-24 triumph over Rice in the LendingTree Bowl. Is another bowl appearance 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
in store?
9/2 ALCORN ST -27.5 10.5
SCHEDULE 37.02
OFFENSE
9/9 at Florida St 25.5 59.5
STRENGTH #77 TOUGHEST OF 133
Figuring out the quarterback position would go a long way toward helping
Southern Miss grow on offense. Five guys, including star RB Frank Gore, saw
time at the position last season. They combined for a 55% completion rate and
9/16 TULANE
9/23 at Arkansas St
11
-5.5
49
28
FIELD 2.1 / -0.1
20 touchdown passes against 14 interceptions. Southern Miss only ran for 3.9
9/30 TEXAS ST UNIV -11 27.5
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
yards per carry, despite a huge season from Gore, who had 6.1 yards per pop
and 1,382 yards with nine touchdowns. He’ll be the best back in the Belt if he 10/7 OLD DOMINION -11 27.5
stays healthy, but this team needs to find some balance. 10/17 at S Alabama 11 44
Clemson transfer Billy Wiles and JUCO transfer Holman Edwards seem to be 10/28 at Appalachian St 4.5 37.5
2023 ODDS
duking it out for the starting spot. Top receiver Jason Brownlee is gone, but 11/4 LA MONROE -14 24.5
finding a guy to run the offense should allow the WR position to shake itself out. ODDS TO WIN
11/9 at LA Lafayette 6 38.5
Whoever wins the job should be well-protected by a veteran offensive line. More
11/18 at Mississippi St 17 50.5
25-1 SUN BELT
decisiveness at the position should cut down on the 34 sacks from last season as
well. We saw what Southern Miss could be without a QB. What if they find one? 11/25 TROY 6.5 44.5

DEFENSE
A mostly rebuilt secondary is the biggest concern for the Golden Eagles on
ODDS TO WIN
defense. The front seven is pretty experienced, and Hall found success with RETURNING OFFENSE: 9 QB 5000-1
15
NATIONAL

STARTERS
the JUCOs he brought in last season. The Golden Eagles shaved off 4.4 points CHAMPIONSHIP
per game and 0.4 yards per play from Year 1 to Year 2, but they have a DEFENSE: 6
new defensive coordinator in Dan O’Brien. Not much will change, though, as
O’Brien was coaching safeties and was an analyst at Georgia prior to that.

The top three tacklers are gone from last year’s team, but a lot of players
got to the quarterback, as the defense was really aggressive with 44 sacks.
Dominic Quewon was the best at it with 10 sacks, but his eligibility ran out. The
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 7-6, ATS: 10-3, O/U: 8-5
Golden Eagles really pressure hard on third down, which does leave them open STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
to some big gains, but also led to a lot of stops. Points Per Game 22.1 96 24.7 44 9/3 LIBERTY (3.5) 27-29 L W
Yards Per Point 14.9 82 15.6 30 9/10 at Miami Fl (27.5) 7-30 L W
OUTLOOK
Plays Per Game 65 117 9/17 NORTHWESTERN ST (-33) 62-10 W W
Most Sun Belt West Division schedules aren’t that tough, but Southern Miss
has a tricky one. The nonconference slate includes Florida State, Tulane, and Time of Possession 28:20 102 9/24 at Tulane (11.5) 27-24 W W
Mississippi State, which are all underdog roles, and there are four road games 3rd Down Conv. % 33.1% 108 37.8% 54 10/8 at Troy (7) 10-27 L L
in the span of a month from October 17 to November 18 before playing Troy Total Yards Per Game 330.1 106 384.8 65 10/15 ARKANSAS ST (-4.5) 20-19 W L
at home in the finale. If a QB emerges, the Golden Eagles could be a long shot Yards Per Play 5.1 87 5.3 51 10/22 at Texas St Univ (-2.5) 20-14 W W
pick to win the West, but that’s a big if. Nevertheless, their win total line is Rush Attempts Per Game 35.8 72 10/27 LA LAFAYETTE (2.5) 39-24 W W
5, and I have a projection of 5.95 wins, so I think six and a bowl bid is more Rush Yards Per Game 138.4 80 149.5 57 11/5 GEORGIA ST (-2) 14-42 L L
likely than 5.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.9 81 3.9 40 11/12 at Coastal Carolina (5) 23-26 L W
Pass Attempts Per Game 26.5 112 11/19 S ALABAMA (7.5) 20-27 L W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 54.7% 112 60.8% 71 11/26 at La Monroe (-3) 20-10 W W

OVER 5
Passing Yards Per Game 191.7 106 235.3 79 12/17 vs. Rice (-6.5) 38-24 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.2 69 7.6 87
Turnovers 2.2 123 1.7 31

181
 TEXAS STATE HEAD COACH: G. J. KINNE (1ST)
BOBCATS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: MACK LEFTWICH
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JONATHAN PATKE

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #120 OF 133

You have to be a college football junkie to get excited about a team with
a season win total of 4.5, but the Texas State Bobcats are one of the most
interesting teams to me this season. Former Tulsa QB GJ Kinne gets his first
crack at being an FBS head coach as a rapid riser in the profession after
POWER RATING 27.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #12 OF 14

serving as the head coach of Incarnate Word last season. All the Cardinals did
was average 51.5 points and 581 yards per game. Get hyped, San Marcos! 2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
OFFENSE 9/2 at Baylor 28 52
SCHEDULE 37.03
There are some quarterbacks very interested in playing for Kinne. How else
9/9 at TX-San Antonio 20.5 44.5
STRENGTH #76 TOUGHEST OF 133
could you explain the Bobcats having Malik Hornsby from Arkansas and TJ
Finley from Auburn as graduate transfers? Lindsey Scott Jr.. seemed to enjoy
playing for Kinne; he threw 60 touchdown passes against eight interceptions
9/16 JACKSON ST
9/23 NEVADA
2.5
-3.5
32
26.5
FIELD 2.5 / -0.4
and won the Walter Payton Award for the best FCS player. Last year’s Bobcats
9/30 at Southern Miss 11 36
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
scored 21.1 points per game and had 4.7 yards per play. It’s safe to say that
those numbers will go up. 10/7 at LA Lafayette 15 38.5
10/14 LA MONROE -6 24.5
Junior wide receiver Ashtyn Hawkins has to be thrilled after leading the team
with 56 catches for 587 yards last season. Nobody else had more than 29 10/28 TROY 14.5 44.5
2023 ODDS
catches, but the ball will be spread around a ton this year. It wasn’t just an all- 11/4 GA SOUTHERN 2.5 33
out aerial assault at Incarnate Word, as the team also ran for over 215 yards ODDS TO WIN
11/11 at Coastal Carolina 12.5 37.5
per game. The top five in rushing yards are all back for Texas State. If nothing
11/18 at Arkansas St 3 28
70-1 SUN BELT
else, this is going to be a fascinating offense, as Kinne led the Cardinals to the
FCS Semifinals. He also brought offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich with him. 11/25 S ALABAMA 14 44

DEFENSE
If the offense fails in spectacular, and fast, fashion, then this defense is in for
ODDS TO WIN
a rude awakening. Only four starters are back from a group that improved by RETURNING OFFENSE: 7 10000-1
11
NATIONAL

STARTERS
6.7 points and 0.5 yards per game last season. The losses are heavy with four CHAMPIONSHIP
of the top six tacklers gone, but much like on the offensive side, Kinne went DEFENSE: 4
shopping in the transfer portal. He plucked a bunch of Power Five transfers for
the defensive line and the secondary.

The UIW offense was quite a bit more successful at stopping the pass than the
run, so we’ll see what sort of scheme defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke can
cook up. Everybody will be learning it all at once, so all of the new faces from
2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 4-8, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 6-6
the portal aren’t that big of a deal. We will find out quickly, as Texas State STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
opens with Baylor and UTSA. Points Per Game 19.9 108 28.7 77 9/3 at Nevada (-2) 14-38 L L
Yards Per Point 15.6 96 13.3 96 9/10 FLA INTERNATIONAL (-14) 41-12 W W
OUTLOOK
Plays Per Game 70.1 66 9/17 at Baylor (30) 7-42 L L
Texas State will put the “Fun” in Fun Belt this season. Kinne’s got two
promising QB prospects, and he knows he’s going to have to outscore the Time of Possession 30:02 63 9/24 HOUSTON BAPTIST (-23) 34-0 W W
defensive shortcomings for the team to win games. This is a team we may have 3rd Down Conv. % 36.8% 86 36.3% 41 10/1 at James Madison (21.5) 13-40 L L
to adjust quickly as the season goes along if the offense is working and the Total Yards Per Game 311.2 117 382.4 60 10/8 APPALACHIAN ST (19) 36-24 W W
defense is holding up its end. For now, my projection is for 3.22 wins, so I’m Yards Per Play 4.4 120 5.4 56 10/15 at Troy (16.5) 14-17 L W
well below the 4.5 in the market that is heavily juiced towards the under, but Rush Attempts Per Game 31.3 111 10/22 SOUTHERN MISS (2.5) 14-20 L L
they are favored in three games (-3 or less) and a pick ‘em in another, so we’ll Rush Yards Per Game 102.9 116 124.5 29 11/5 at La Monroe (2.5) 30-31 L W
have to see how the season starts.
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.3 114 3.6 27 11/12 at S Alabama (16.5) 21-38 L L
Pass Attempts Per Game 36.6 27 11/19 ARKANSAS ST (-6.5) 16-13 W L
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 61.5% 57 65.0% 116 11/26 LA LAFAYETTE (5) 13-41 L L

UNDER 4.5
Passing Yards Per Game 208.3 91 257.8 99
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.7 122 7.4 78
Turnovers 1.5 65 1.7 26

182
 TROY HEAD COACH: JON SUMRALL (2ND)
TROJANS
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: JOE CRADDOCK
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: GREG GASPARATO / TAYLER POLK

BY ADAM BURKE STEVE MAKINEN’S NATIONAL RANK: #61 OF 133

If only the formula was as simple as hiring former Kentucky Wildcats
assistants. Then a lot of teams could do what the Troy Trojans have done. Troy
has four double-digit winning seasons in the last seven years. Three came with
Neal Brown, former Kentucky offensive coordinator, and the most recent came
POWER RATING 44.5 CONFERENCE RANK: #1 OF 14

last season with Kentucky co-defensive coordinator Jon Sumrall. The Trojans
went 12-2 with one of the nation’s most suffocating defenses and will look to 2023 SCHEDULE
defend their first outright Sun Belt Conference championship since 2009. DATE OPPONENT EST. LINE OPP PR
9/2 STEPH F AUSTIN -28.5 18
SCHEDULE 35.19
OFFENSE
The offense made some modest gains, but nothing like what the defense did. 9/9 at Kansas St 11.5 53
STRENGTH #92 TOUGHEST OF 133
Maybe Year 2 will give the offense a chance to make a big leap, as OC Joe
Craddock has his quarterback and leading rusher back in the fray. Gunnar
Watson is just over 1,100 yards away from being the third all-time leading
9/16 JAMES MADISON -6.5 39.5
FIELD 2.1 / 0.1
passer, as he comes off of what could’ve been a better season. He had a 61.5%
9/23 W KENTUCKY
9/30 at Georgia St
-5.5
-8
40.5
34
RATINGS (HOME/ROAD)
completion rate with 2,818 yards but a really pedestrian 14/12 TD/INT ratio.
10/7 ARKANSAS ST -19 28
Kimani Vidal is on track to be the all-time program leader in rushing yards.
10/14 at Army -6.5 36
After gaining 701 yards in 2021, he racked up 1,132 and added 10 touchdowns
in his sophomore season. Depth is a bit of a concern here with DK Billingsley 10/28 at Texas St Univ -14.5 27.5
2023 ODDS
gone, but Vidal is a bruiser at 5-8 and 215 pounds. He could be magnified in
importance, though, as Troy lost 92 catches and nearly 2016 yards from Tez 11/2 S ALABAMA -3 44

+310
and RaJae’ Johnson. That said, Jabre Barber does return, and he was leading 11/11 at LA Monroe -17.5 24.5 ODDS TO WIN
the team before getting hurt. Troy added 2.8 points and 0.4 yards per play SUN BELT
from the previous year, so we’ll see if they can grow from that. 11/18 LA LAFAYETTE -7.5 38.5
11/25 at Southern Miss -6.5 36
DEFENSE
Despite 15 INT from Watson and Jarret Doege, the Trojans still finished +6 in
turnover margin, as they tied for seventh with 26 takeaways. They were +7
in fumbles, which could regress for this season, but six starters are back on ODDS TO WIN
RETURNING OFFENSE: 6 QB 1000-1
12
defense in hopes of keeping up the monumental gains of last year. The Troy NATIONAL
defense allowed just 17.1 points per game and just 4.7 yards per play. They
were eighth nationally in yards per play and points per game, which was a STARTERS DEFENSE: 6
CHAMPIONSHIP

huge step forward.

But this season could result in a step back. The top three tacklers are all gone,
including the nation’s Defensive Player of the Year in Carlton Martial, who
is the all-time FBS leader in tackles. On the plus side, both starting corners 2022 STATS AND RANKS 2022 RESULTS
are back in Reddy Steward and O’shai Fletcher, who combined for 20 pass OFFENSE DEFENSE SU: 12-2, ATS: 11-3, O/U: 6-8
breakups. It was surprising to see Troy’s overall defensive numbers given that STAT/RANK STAT/RANK DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU ATS
they were 82nd in third-down defense and just 43rd in red zone TD% against. Points Per Game 24.6 79 17.2 7 9/3 at Ole Miss (21) 10-28 L W
Regression seems likely, especially with DC Shiel Wood gone.
Yards Per Point 14.1 61 18.9 5 9/10 ALABAMA A&M (-37.5) 38-17 W L
OUTLOOK Plays Per Game 66.7 105 9/17 at Appalachian St (14) 28-32 L W
The offense could be better, and the defense could be worse, but the Time of Possession 30:51 44 9/24 MARSHALL (3) 16-7 W W
Trojans should still be a very good team in the weaker half of the Sun Belt. 3rd Down Conv. % 33.1% 108 40.9% 84 10/1 at W Kentucky (4.5) 34-27 W W
Furthermore, Troy misses App State, Marshall, and Coastal Carolina from the Total Yards Per Game 347.2 98 324.8 15 10/8 SOUTHERN MISS (-7) 27-10 W W
East. The nonconference is tough, though, with Western Kentucky and Kansas
State on the ledger. The win total line for Troy is 8, and my projection is for Yards Per Play 5.2 80 4.6 9 10/15 TEXAS ST UNIV (-16.5) 17-14 W L
exactly 8.00 wins. I’d lean towards nine wins over seven wins, though. Rush Attempts Per Game 35.9 69 10/20 at S Alabama (3) 10-6 W W
Rush Yards Per Game 121.3 97 124.5 27 11/5 at La Lafayette (-3.5) 23-17 W W
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.4 106 3.6 24 11/12 ARMY (-8.5) 10-9 W L
Pass Attempts Per Game 27.4 106 11/19 LA MONROE (-14.5) 34-16 W W
SEASON WIN TOTAL PLAY Completion % 62.6% 46 61.5% 81 11/26 at Arkansas St (-14) 48-19 W W

OVER 8
Passing Yards Per Game 225.8 68 200.3 25 12/3 COASTAL CAROLINA (-6.5) 45-26 W W
Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.2 20 6 7 12/16 vs. Tx-San Antonio (3) 18-12 W W
Turnovers 1.4 57 1.8 14

183
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
RECRUITING RANKINGS
HELP PREDICT SUCCESS
by Steve Makinen

College sports are ever-evolving, and the recent phenomenon in acquiring talent relies heavily on both courting high school stars and the transfer
portal. Simply put, it has changed the way programs build their teams, and it can have an instant impact. Weak teams can reload quickly. Strong
teams can be decimated in the same fashion. Patience to wait out maturing incoming classes is no longer mandated. Essentially, this is the nature
of the recruiting game nowadays, and coaches have to be able to both sell their programs to experienced players and develop young ones. Being
versed in the recruiting game shouldn’t only be considered essential for coaches, however, as those betting should have a good handle on it as well.
There is naturally a direct relationship between the success a team has on the recruiting trail to what it has on the field.

The importance of recruiting has never been greater than it is now in college sports, and all of us have been thrown for a loop lately by not only
the extraordinary growth of the transfer portal but also by the havoc that COVID-19 wreaked on the sports world. We are finally getting close to
clearing out the remaining players competing on that extra year(s) of eligibility they were granted because of the pandemic. These things have
made life a little more difficult for bettors who study recruiting rankings as a fundamental part of their offseason handicapping.

It was a few years ago that 247Sports, the source I use for my recruiting ranks article every year, added a “transfer” rating to their “recruit” ratings,
as well as combined the two ratings into an “overall” rating. Because of the transfer portal’s impact in quickly reshaping rosters, I was forced to
implement this overall rating into my annual study.

The recruiting game is quite interesting, and 247Sports covers it as well or better than anyone. This site logs all of the recruits/transfers for every
team each season and generates a numerical grading process based on the combined scores of the players a team signs. In 2020, I started looking
hard at these numerical recruiting rankings of the FBS programs over the last decade and more. I have found, as usual, that anything numerically
rated can be turned into useful foundational betting analysis.

Most fans and bettors typically know who tends to do well annually in the recruiting game, and the usual suspects have once again risen to the
top of the rankings for their 2023 classes. Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Ohio State, and LSU comprise the Top 5. These programs’ consistent on-
field success can easily be attributed accordingly. Alabama has scored the highest national rating on 247Sports in 10 of the last 13 seasons, with
Georgia filling in the gaps in two other years and Texas A&M filling the final void in 2022.

None of what I just shared about the high-ranking teams in recruiting is earth-shattering news, but with all that said, finding other lower-radar teams
that might be ready to surprise because of unusually good or bad recent recruiting classes can be crucial to success in betting college football.
Similarly, knowing which teams are trending in the right or wrong direction regarding their recruiting success can also benefit the handicapper.

Of course, and this is the third straight year that I will emphasize this, there’s also the matter of taking recruits and making a team out of them,
otherwise known as coaching. Knowing which programs make the most or least out of their recruiting classes should also be a fundamental part of
your college football knowledge base.

I will address all of those subjects in this article, including projecting this year’s standings for the newly reshaped conferences based SOLELY on the
recruiting rankings from 247Sports and a predictive formula that I was able to uncover using regression analysis. This is always an interesting topic
that I have now made a permanent fixture in my preparations for each coming college season.

2023 PROJECTED STANDINGS USING THE LAST FOUR YEARS OF RECRUITING RANKINGS
After compiling all of the year-by-year recruiting rankings for the FBS teams since 2007, comparing different options to the actual records and my
power ratings that teams closed at in a given season, I was able to determine that the most predictive time frame of a team’s success on the field
came when considering its Last Four Recruiting Classes. It was greater than one year, two years, three years, and any special combined formulas I
derived using the 1-4 year window. This changed since last year, as I used the three-year window as the basis. However, I believe that the extra year
of eligibility granted during the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the value of age and experience over the last two seasons. As is the case with
any statistical study, there are exceptions to the rule. Still, knowing what I know from 20+ years in this industry on both sides of the counter, I am
comfortable using this four-year time window to analyze teams’ prospects for a season. That said, I will analyze the results of this again next year to
see if the results return to the pre-COVID norms.

On the following two pages are the would-be projected standings for the 2023 season for each conference using their combined average rank for
their last three recruiting classes (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020). Remember that these projections include no other factor than the perceived talent level
of the players when they signed into each team’s recruiting class.

184
 ACC AMERICAN ATHLETIC BIG 12
CONF 4-YEAR NATL CONF 4-YEAR NATL CONF 4-YEAR NATL
RK TEAM AVG RK RK TEAM AVG RK RK TEAM AVG RK
1 CLEMSON 9.25 7 1 SMU 56.00 61 1 TEXAS 8.00 6

2 MIAMI FL 11.25 10 2 MEMPHIS 62.50 64 2 OKLAHOMA 9.25 8

3 NORTH CAROLINA 18.00 17 3 TULANE 74.50 73 3 TCU 35.00 34

4 FLORIDA ST 20.00 19 4 EAST CAROLINA 79.25 74 4 OKLAHOMA ST 38.75 36

5 LOUISVILLE 35.50 35 5 SOUTH FLORIDA 79.50 75 5 WEST VIRGINIA 41.00 39

6 GEORGIA TECH 44.75 42 6 TX-SAN ANTONIO 80.75 77 6 BAYLOR 44.25 41

7 PITTSBURGH 46.75 47 7 FLA ATLANTIC 85.25 80 7 CINCINNATI 46.25 46

8 NC STATE 50.25 48 8 NORTH TEXAS 88.00 84 8 TEXAS TECH 50.50 50

9 VIRGINIA 51.00 52 9 RICE 96.75 94 9 UCF 50.50 51

10 VIRGINIA TECH 51.25 53 10 TEMPLE 98.00 96 10 KANSAS ST 52.00 54

11 BOSTON COLLEGE 52.50 55 11 UAB 101.50 99 11 IOWA ST 53.00 57

12 DUKE 62.50 63 12 CHARLOTTE 108.00 113 12 KANSAS 62.75 65

13 SYRACUSE 63.50 66 13 TULSA 113.50 123 13 BYU 65.25 67

14 WAKE FOREST 67.50 69 14 NAVY 120.75 129 14 HOUSTON 66.00 68

BIG TEN CONFERENCE USA MAC

CONF 4-YEAR NATL CONF 4-YEAR NATL CONF 4-YEAR NATL
RK TEAM AVG RK RK TEAM AVG RK RK TEAM AVG RK
1 OHIO ST 3.75 3 1 FLA INTERNATIONAL 87.75 83 1 TOLEDO 85.75 81

2 PENN ST 14.50 13 2 LOUISIANA TECH 90.25 87 2 MIAMI OHIO 93.25 89

3 MICHIGAN 14.75 14 3 LIBERTY 101.63 100 3 BUFFALO 95.00 92

4 NEBRASKA 25.50 21 4 W KENTUCKY 107.75 112 4 C MICHIGAN 96.75 93

5 MARYLAND 29.75 25 5 MIDDLE TENN ST 110.50 118 5 N ILLINOIS 97.25 95

6 WISCONSIN 30.50 28 6 NEW MEXICO ST 111.25 119 6 W MICHIGAN 101.25 98

7 MICHIGAN ST 33.50 30 7 SAM HOUSTON ST 116.75 127 7 E MICHIGAN 105.25 105

8 IOWA 34.50 31 8 UTEP 127.00 131 8 BOWLING GREEN 105.75 107

9 MINNESOTA 45.00 43 9 JACKSONVILLE ST 132.25 133 9 BALL ST 106.00 108

10 INDIANA 46.00 45 10 KENT ST 111.50 121

11 RUTGERS 50.50 49 11 OHIO U 113.50 122

12 PURDUE 52.75 56 12 AKRON 115.25 124

13 NORTHWESTERN 53.00 58

14 ILLINOIS 69.25 71

185
 MOUNTAIN WEST PAC-12 SEC
CONF 4-YEAR NATL CONF 4-YEAR NATL CONF 4-YEAR NATL
RK TEAM AVG RK RK TEAM AVG RK RK TEAM AVG RK
1 BOISE ST 68.50 70 1 OREGON 10.75 9 1 ALABAMA 1.50 1

2 SAN DIEGO ST 80.00 76 2 USC 18.75 18 2 GEORGIA 2.50 2

3 FRESNO ST 85.00 79 3 UCLA 29.25 24 3 LSU 4.75 4

4 COLORADO ST 86.25 82 4 UTAH 30.00 26 4 TEXAS A&M 6.25 5

5 UNLV 93.50 90 5 WASHINGTON 34.75 33 5 FLORIDA 12.25 12

6 NEVADA 105.00 104 6 STANFORD 39.75 37 6 AUBURN 16.25 15

7 SAN JOSE ST 107.25 109 7 ARIZONA ST 41.00 38 7 TENNESSEE 16.50 16

8 AIR FORCE 107.50 110 8 CALIFORNIA 42.25 40 8 OLE MISS 21.25 20

9 NEW MEXICO 108.00 114 9 COLORADO 45.25 44 9 ARKANSAS 25.75 22

10 WYOMING 110.00 117 10 ARIZONA 53.75 59 10 KENTUCKY 26.75 23

11 UTAH ST 111.25 120 11 WASHINGTON ST 62.00 62 11 MISSISSIPPI ST 30.50 27

12 HAWAII 121.00 130 12 OREGON ST 71.25 72 12 MISSOURI 32.00 29

13 SOUTH CAROLINA 34.50 32

14 VANDERBILT 54.00 60

SUN BELT INDEPENDENTS

CONF 4-YEAR NATL CONF 4-YEAR NATL
RK TEAM AVG RK RK TEAM AVG RK
1 APPALACHIAN ST 83.50 78 1 NOTRE DAME 12.00 11

2 LA LAFAYETTE 89.25 85 2 MASSACHUSETTS 107.75 111

3 ARKANSAS ST 90.00 86 3 CONNECTICUT 115.50 125

4 SOUTHERN MISS 92.25 88 4 ARMY 116.25 126

5 COASTAL CAROLINA 94.50 91

6 GA SOUTHERN 100.75 97

7 MARSHALL 101.75 101

8 S ALABAMA 102.25 102

9 TROY 102.50 103

10 GEORGIA ST 105.25 106

11 OLD DOMINION 109.25 115

12 TEXAS ST UNIV 109.75 116

13 LA MONROE 118.50 128

14 JAMES MADISON 131.00 132

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As you look at the projected standings, you will see that there aren’t any major surprises projected at the top of any of the Power Five conference
standings. The Group of Five conference projections have changed dramatically over the course of a year, mostly due to all of the realignment
across the country. Some unusual teams, such as SMU and Florida International, are now leaders in their respective leagues for their recruiting
efforts. We’ll see how this plays out this fall. It will also be interesting to see how the new additions to the Big 12 shape up. Cincinnati, Houston,
UCF, and BYU had grown accustomed to recruiting against the American Conference and Independents. Hopefully, you can find more useful tidbits
as you study the Recruiting Rankings chart by conference.

TEAMS THAT DO THE MOST/LEAST WITH THEIR RECRUITING CLASSES

Signing a quality recruiting class is only the start of the story. Coaches need to develop the individual talent they acquire and mold them into
a functioning unit in order to be successful. Some programs have demonstrated this ability far better than others. While some programs take a
modestly rated recruiting class and make a winning program out of it, there are others that take a highly rated class and underachieve on the field.
Let’s look at some of the programs that have distinctly demonstrated the opposite ends of this spectrum.

The teams below are sorted by the difference between their average national recruiting rankings over the last five years and their end-of-year power
rating on my scale. As you analyze the merits of why each of these teams appears on the list, be sure to consider which programs have undergone
coaching changes in recent years and, as a result, how relevant this info might be for 2023.

TOP 20 TEAMS WHOSE ON-FIELD PERFORMANCE

CONSISTENTLY EXCEEDS ITS RECRUITING RATING
As you look at the teams on the “overachieving” list, you’ll see a common trend: three of the top four programs are service academies, a credit to
the quality character of kids those teams recruit.

Also of note here is that of the top nine teams, for the second straight year, seven of them are the same. New entries are BYU and Tulsa, replacing
UCF and Liberty. This is a sign of programs with a consistent method of operation.

All but five of the teams on this list are from Group of Five conferences. Only Iowa State (#13), UCF (#16), Cincinnati (#17), and Kansas State
(#18) represent the Power Five leagues, and all are from the Big 12. Truthfully, it’s hard to compete consistently for conference titles in the Power
Five leagues if you aren’t recruiting consistently well. It will be interesting to see how much more effective teams like Cincinnati and UCF are in their
recruiting efforts going forward with the step up in conference.

1. ARMY: Recruit Rank - 123.4, SM PR Rank - 72, Difference +51.4

2. AIR FORCE: Recruit Rank - 111.2, SM PR Rank - 62.4, Difference +48.8
3. APPALACHIAN ST: Recruit Rank - 92.2, SM PR Rank - 47.6, Difference +44.6
4. NAVY: Recruit Rank - 121.2, SM PR Rank - 78.8, Difference +42.4
5. TULSA: Recruit Rank - 111.8, SM PR Rank - 73.4, Difference +38.4
6. OHIO U: Recruit Rank - 117.4, SM PR Rank - 83.2, Difference +34.2
7. BYU: Recruit Rank - 73.8, SM PR Rank - 44, Difference +29.8
8. WYOMING: Recruit Rank - 110.6, SM PR Rank - 82, Difference +28.6
9. BUFFALO: Recruit Rank - 109.4, SM PR Rank - 80.8, Difference +28.6
10. LA LAFAYETTE: Recruit Rank - 90, SM PR Rank - 61.6, Difference +28.4
11. LIBERTY: Recruit Rank - 98.7, SM PR Rank - 70.3, Difference +28.3
12. FRESNO ST: Recruit Rank - 87.8, SM PR Rank - 60.8, Difference +27
13. IOWA ST: Recruit Rank - 50.8, SM PR Rank - 24.4, Difference +26.4
14. UAB: Recruit Rank - 97.6, SM PR Rank - 71.6, Difference +26
15. UTAH ST: Recruit Rank - 106, SM PR Rank - 82, Difference +24
16. CINCINNATI: Recruit Rank - 51.6, SM PR Rank - 28, Difference +23.6
17. UCF: Recruit Rank - 57.2, SM PR Rank - 33.6, Difference +23.6
18. KANSAS ST: Recruit Rank - 59.6, SM PR Rank - 36.6, Difference +23
19. BOISE ST: Recruit Rank - 62.2, SM PR Rank - 40, Difference +22.2
20. COASTAL CAROLINA: Recruit Rank - 104, SM PR Rank - 81.8, Difference +22.2

TOP 20 TEAMS WHOSE RECRUITING RATINGS

HAVE EXCEEDED THEIR ON-FIELD PERFORMANCE
The programs on this “underachieving” list are those that, more often than not, are forced to fire their coaches due to a lack of success. They recruit
fairly well but are typically found at or near the bottom of their conference standings. For a second straight season, Rutgers holds the dubious honor
of the top spot.

Essentially the teams on this list don’t do nearly as well as what 247Sports thought its signees were capable of.

Overall, this list is dominated by Power Five conference schools, who use the lure of playing in big-time college football games to sign good athletes
but haven’t had the same luck transferred to the field. You might be surprised to see some programs like Florida State, North Carolina, or Tennessee
on this list. Another good year or two on the field under their newer coaches could see them graduate from it.

The only four Group of Five schools you’ll find among this collection of underachievers are Florida International (#5), UNLV (#13), and
Massachusetts (#17).

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Five teams from this group have welcomed in new head coaches for 2023, Colorado, Stanford, South Florida, UNLV, and Nebraska. It will be
interesting to follow the direction of those programs in the coming seasons.

1. RUTGERS: Recruit Rank - 51.8, SM PR Rank - 97.6, Difference +-45.8

2. VANDERBILT: Recruit Rank - 49, SM PR Rank - 93.2, Difference +-44.2
3. GEORGIA TECH: Recruit Rank - 42, SM PR Rank - 78.4, Difference +-36.4
4. MARYLAND: Recruit Rank - 32.2, SM PR Rank - 65.6, Difference +-33.4
5. FLA INTERNATIONAL: Recruit Rank - 82.6, SM PR Rank - 114.8, Difference +-32.2
6. FLORIDA ST: Recruit Rank - 18.6, SM PR Rank - 50.6, Difference +-32
7. COLORADO: Recruit Rank - 51.4, SM PR Rank - 82, Difference +-30.6
8. STANFORD: Recruit Rank - 31.6, SM PR Rank - 61.8, Difference +-30.2
9. SOUTH FLORIDA: Recruit Rank - 75.8, SM PR Rank - 105.6, Difference +-29.8
10. ARKANSAS: Recruit Rank - 29, SM PR Rank - 56.8, Difference +-27.8
11. KANSAS: Recruit Rank - 63.8, SM PR Rank - 91.2, Difference +-27.4
12. SOUTH CAROLINA: Recruit Rank - 32, SM PR Rank - 57, Difference +-25
13. UNLV: Recruit Rank - 89.2, SM PR Rank - 114.2, Difference +-25
14. ARIZONA: Recruit Rank - 56.2, SM PR Rank - 80.4, Difference +-24.2
15. MIAMI FL: Recruit Rank - 14.4, SM PR Rank - 38.2, Difference +-23.8
16. NORTH CAROLINA: Recruit Rank - 18.8, SM PR Rank - 41.6, Difference +-22.8
17. MASSACHUSETTS: Recruit Rank - 106.4, SM PR Rank - 125.8, Difference +-19.4
18. DUKE: Recruit Rank - 58.8, SM PR Rank - 78, Difference +-19.2
19. NEBRASKA: Recruit Rank - 22.2, SM PR Rank - 41, Difference +-18.8
20. TENNESSEE: Recruit Rank - 17.8, SM PR Rank - 36.4, Difference +-18.6

TEAMS WHOSE RECRUITING APPEARS TO BE TRENDING IN EACH DIRECTION

The recent success or lack thereof on the recruiting trail for teams figures to have a direct relationship with how they fare on the field in the coming
years. Teams whose classes are improving consistently are likely to become more prominent on the national/conference stage, while those whose
class strengths are declining could be experiencing downturns in the near future. There are also unique situations where a staff added an unusually
highly rated or lowly rated class in a given year as opposed to typical results. Let’s look at teams on both ends of the recruiting momentum spectrum.

22 TEAMS WHOSE RECRUITING RANKINGS ARE TRENDING IN A POSITIVE DIRECTION

Baylor (Last four recruiting ranks: 54, 45, 42, 36)
Dave Aranda took over a Baylor team still reeling from off-the-field problems. His efforts in recruiting have it back on the right track, as each of their
last three classes has been better than the prior one. However, the Bears still have a way to go to catch up to Texas and Oklahoma.

Buffalo (Last three recruiting ranks: sub-100. Prior 10 years: no such occurrences)
Maurice Linguist inherited a Buffalo team that was trending in the wrong direction in terms of recruiting. His first three classes have ranked 99th in
2021, 75th last year, and 79th this spring. The latter two are very high by MAC standards. It could be a good sign for a team that reached a bowl
game last year.

BYU (Last five recruiting ranks: 81, 78, 75, 57, 51)
The step up to the Big 12 conference has had a good impact on BYU’s recruiting rankings recently, and the 51st-ranked class of 2023 is the highest
ranking for the program since 2016. However, it’s not quite Big 12 caliber yet and needs to keep trending upward for this team to compete for
conference titles.

Colorado (2023 recruiting rank: 21. Prior two-year avg: 62)

Hiring Head Coach Deion Sanders was huge on the recruiting trail. How long will it take for the results to show on the field? It will be quite
interesting to follow.

Eastern Michigan (2023 recruiting rank: 90, best since prior to 2010)
Chris Creighton capitalized on the momentum of his team’s 9-4 season last year to reel in the best recruiting class in well over a decade. In two of
the previous three years, Creighton has brought in a class ranked in the 90s, decent by MAC standards. Before that, the best recent rank was 108 in
2012.

East Carolina (2023 recruiting rank: 66, best since prior to 2010)
Like Eastern Michigan, East Carolina was able to jump on the momentum from an 8-5 season to bring in its best recruiting class in a long time. This
year’s class ranked 66. The last two classes were 96 and 85. The Pirates would be perennial contenders in the new weakened AAC if they recruit at
this level.

Florida State (2023 recruiting rank: 16 – highest since 2018)

Mike Norvell could be on the verge of bringing Florida State back into national prominence after scoring the program’s highest-rated recruiting
class since 2018. It continued a three-year trend of improvement as well.

Houston (Last two recruiting ranks: 51, 48. Prior five-year avg: 75.8)
Houston has put together its best back-to-back recruiting classes on record in preparation for its move to the Big 12. The Cougars were 12-2 in 2021
and seem to have parlayed that on-field success to the recruiting game.

Illinois (Last four recruiting ranks: 87, 71, 65, 54)

Third-year coach Bret Bielema brought in Illinois’ best recruiting class since 2019 this spring and continued a four-year trend of continuous
improvement. Off their first bowl game in four years, this program is moving in the right direction.

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Kansas State (2023 recruiting rank: 39. Prior 13-year best: 49)
Chris Klieman’s K-State team won double-digit games for the first time since 2012 this past year. He used that success to step up the recruiting efforts,
enhancing the chances of continued success.

Louisville (2023 recruiting rank: 27, best since 2011)

You have to love the hiring of Jeff Brohm at Louisville, as the former star quarterback returns to his alma mater. The initial results are in, and they are
fantastic, the best recruiting class in over a decade.

Ole Miss (Last three recruiting rank avg: 17.0. Prior four-year avg: 29.8)
Lane Kiffin has taken Ole Miss recruiting efforts to the next level, and the Rebels are now competing in that area with the likes of Florida, Auburn,
and Tennessee. The results have shown on the field the last two years and should continue in ’23.

Oregon (Last six recruiting rank avg: 10.5. Prior five-year avg: 20.4)
Despite four coaching changes since 2017, recruiting has taken off for Oregon once again after a downturn in the years prior. The Ducks have
been at a top-10 level in terms of adding players in three of the last six years. Are they poised to get back into the national title consideration in the
immediate future?

Oregon State (Last three recruiting ranks: 108, 71. 53)

Oregon State’s 2021 class reached new depths for program standards, but the efforts for HC Jonathan Smith picked up over the last two seasons.
Off last year’s 10-3 campaign, Smith brought in a class ranked 53rd in the country, the Beavers’ best since 2019.

Rice (Last four recruiting ranks avg: 97.0. Prior five-year avg: 112.6)
During its recent heyday of football success (2012-14), Rice was playing with players obtained in recruiting classes ranked in the low 90s typically.
Three of the last four classes were at such a level, and the Owls could be ready to see those efforts bear fruit on the field.

South Alabama (Last two years recruiting rank: 95, 83. Prior five-year avg: 117.4)
There is a lot of positive momentum brewing for Head Coach Kane Wommack at South Alabama as his team comes off a strong 10-3 campaign. He
parlayed that into an 83rd-ranked recruiting class, its second straight respected group, and the highest for the program on record.

SMU (Last three recruiting ranks: 51, 50, 42. Prior 11-year avg: 75.2)
With three powerful recruiting classes in tow and most of the other formidable AAC powers having left for the Big 12, it sure looks like SMU could
be the team to beat in the conference for the immediate future.

South Carolina (Last two recruiting ranks: 24, 17. 2021 rank: 79th)
It’s easily explainable when a new incoming coach strikes out on his first recruiting trail, and that is exactly what happened to Shane Beamer two
years ago at South Carolina. He has redeemed himself since, scoring the program’s best-respected class since 2012 this spring. Off back-to-back
winning seasons, the Gamecocks are a team on the rise.

Texas A&M (Last five recruiting ranks: 4, 6, 8, 1, 10. Prior nine-year avg: 15.4)
Head Coach Jimbo Fisher has brought Texas A&M to the elite of the recruiting rankings, with the program scoring five straight Top 10s. The seat is
getting warmer as the talent in College Station is good enough to compete with Alabama and Georgia. At least on paper.

TX-San Antonio (Last three recruiting ranks: 74, 73, 72. Prior 10-year avg: 74.2)
After three straight well-respected recruiting classes, it’s safe to say that UTSA has reached a new echelon in its recruiting standards, so be prepared
to see this program do fairly well in its transition to the AAC.

UCF (Last three recruiting average: 43.7. Prior 10-year avg: 68.1)
Head Coach Gus Malzahn has taken UCF recruiting to another level in his three years, so much so that the Golden Knights are projected ninth of 14
teams in the Big 12 for 2023. They are even ranked higher than three standing Big 12 foes.

Utah (2023 recruiting rank: 23rd, best on record)

Head Coach Kyle Whittingham scored his best class at Utah in his tenure this spring, and with the program having been given ranks of 35th or better
in four straight years now, it sure looks as if the Utes will continue building on back-to-back double-digit win seasons.

23 TEAMS WHOSE RECRUITING RANKINGS ARE TRENDING IN A NEGATIVE DIRECTION

Auburn (Last six years recruiting rank avg 14.7. Prior eight-year avg: 8.0)
This might not seem like a big transformation, dropping by an average of 6.7 over the time period, but in the SEC West it is. This is a big reason why
Auburn is having trouble competing with the likes of Alabama and LSU lately. The Tigers were a consistent Top 10 recruiting team in the early part
of last decade. They’ve been in double-digits in five of the last six years.

Bowling Green (Last three years recruiting rank avg 113.0. Prior four-year avg: 96.0)
The 2023 season will be Scott Loeffler’s fifth at Bowling Green, and he will no longer have veteran QB Matt McDonald as his stabilizing force.
Recent recruiting classes suggest this year could be a struggle for the Falcons.

Charlotte (Last four years recruiting ranks: 88, 107, 112, 126)
It’s not a real surprise when the first recruiting class for a new coach at a program doesn’t measure up to recent years. However, Charlotte’s Biff
Poggi brought in the school’s worst-rated class since 2019, extending a downward trend that could prove a challenging factor as the 49ers jump up
to the AAC in ’23.

Clemson (Last two years recruiting rank avg: 14.5. Prior four-year avg: 6.3)
Could the magic be wearing off at Clemson for Head Coach Dabo Swinney? The last two recruiting classes rank as the worst consecutive seasons since
2013 and 2014. It’s not as big of a problem in the ACC as it would be in the SEC, but is this program no longer a perennial national title contender?

Connecticut (Last five years recruiting rank best: 110. Prior eight-year avg: 89.7)
There was talk this offseason that the Big 12 was considering adding Connecticut as an all-sports member. Surely, they were only focused on
basketball. The Huskies’ recent football recruiting efforts are not only trending horribly, they are also nowhere near Big 12 caliber.

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Duke (Last two recruiting ranks: 68, 64, both worse than any year since 2013)
Mike Elko’s first two classes are the program’s worst-rated since 2013. However, he guided his team to an unexpected 9-4 record in 2022. It doesn’t
look favorable for that success to continue, however.

LA Lafayette (Last two recruiting ranks: 120, 91. Prior three-year avg: 74.3)
Transitioning from a huge four-year run under Billy Napier was expected to be tough. Unfortunately, Head Coach Micheal Desourmeaux has
lowered the recruiting standards in his first two classes. The results showed on the field last year. It will probably continue.

LA Monroe (Last two recruiting ranks: 128, 129, worst classes on record)
ULM doesn’t figure to get out of the rut it’s been in anytime soon as the two most recent recruiting classes rank in the bottom 6 of the country and
are nowhere near the level needed to compete in the Sun Belt.

Marshall (Last four years recruiting rank avg: 101.75. Prior 10-year avg: 69.4)
Marshall was 9-4 last year, its sixth straight season over-.500. You have to wonder how long that streak might last, though, as the Herd has not
been recruiting at a level previously reached by past administrations. This spring’s class ranked 119th, tied for worst on record, with the 2021
class.

Michigan (Last four recruiting rank best 12th. Prior eight years: 5 top 8’s)
Despite back-to-back CFP appearances, Michigan has been unable to capitalize on the recruiting trail. Their 2023 class ranked 20th, very low by
Wolverines’ standards, and the worst since 2018. Could the window for Michigan to compete for national titles be closing?

Middle Tennessee St (Last three recruiting rank avg: 117.7. Prior eight-year avg: 90.5)
It’s hard to measure how fatiguing the new age of recruiting can be for a veteran coach like MTSU’s Rick Stockstill. Typically, those guys aren’t keen
on the transfer portal and things like that. His last three classes reflect a new era of the recruiting game, and the Blue Raiders don’t appear ready to
compete in it.

Mississippi St (Last two recruiting ranks 32, 37. Prior seven years: all sub-29)
Losing a coach with the engaging personality of Mike Leach would naturally have an impact on recruiting. However, his final class and the current
group brought in by Zach Arnett were not up to MSU standards, and it could show on the field in the coming years.

Navy (Last five recruiting rank avg: 121.4)

For anyone wondering why Navy’s football program has fallen on hard times, look no further. Before 2019, the eight-year recruiting average was
around 103, and the Navy staff always did well in developing those players. This new task is a little tougher.

Northwestern (Last four recruiting ranks: 47, 49, 56, 60)

With Northwestern’s high education standards, it’s never as easy to recruit there as it is at some other Big Ten schools. That said, the Wildcats have
typically fared well at getting the most out of player development. That seems to be until recently, as the Wildcats have won three or fewer games
in the last four seasons. With a recruiting trend moving steadily downward, we could soon be witnessing the end of an era in Evanston. What will
things look like without Pat Fitzgerald?

Old Dominion (Last four years recruiting ranks: 94, 102, 117, 124)
Old Dominion’s recruiting class ranks are headed in the wrong direction, and there’s a good chance it could come back to bite the Monarchs in
2023. Not only have the recruiting classes dropped in three straight years, but starting QB Hayden Wolff transferred to Western Michigan, and the
Sun Belt Conference is stacking up tougher than Conference USA did.

Pittsburgh (Last two years recruiting ranks: 60, 56. Prior 10-years: once over 48)
There could be some reason for concern around the Pitt football program in the next few years, as back-to-back sub-standard recruiting classes
will occupy positions on the field against the rest of the ACC. They produced quality records in the last two seasons, so it was a surprise to see the
recruiting efforts not bear fruit.

San Jose State (Last five recruiting classes: Four worse than 110th. Prior five-year avg: 84.2)
Recruiting efforts have dropped off severely at San Jose State. Could this be the year the Spartans go into a tailspin because of it?

Stanford (2023 recruiting class rank: 61, worst on record)

Incoming new Head Coach Troy Taylor’s first recruiting class at Stanford bombed, according to the experts, setting a new low standard for the
program by nine points. Off back-to-back 3-9 seasons, there’s little reason to believe things will turn around this fall.

Toledo (Last two recruiting ranks: 99, 106. Prior 12-year avg: 77.8)
Toledo was a remarkably consistent performing program in terms of recruiting from 2010 through 2021. Since then, the two most recent classes
have flopped. It might not be this year, with upperclassmen still in place at most positions, but I could easily see this team falling off in the next
few years.

Tulsa (Last four recruiting ranks: 107, 112, 126, 113, 103. Prior three-year avg: 92.3)
Tulsa had three straight sub-100 ranked recruiting classes from 2016-18, and that group of underclassmen produced two consecutive winning seasons
in 2020 and 2021. The last five years of recruiting classes have bottomed out, and after a 5-7 season a year ago, the program may continue feeling
the consequences in 2023.

UNLV (Last two years recruiting ranks: 100, 130. Prior two-year avg: 72.0)
Things have fallen apart from a recruiting standpoint at UNLV, which is quite surprising considering the locale. This year’s 130th ranking puts the
Runnin’ Rebels better than just three other schools. Not exactly momentum-building for new head coach Barry Odom.

Virginia Tech (Last four years recruiting rank avg: 51.3. Prior 10-year avg 28.0)
From 2010 through 2019, Virginia Tech averaged a recruiting ranking of 28.0, without a single year being ranked worse than 42nd. All of the most
recent four classes were ranked 43rd or worse. For whatever reason, elite players aren’t drawn to Blacksburg like they once were. Don’t expect
recognizable improvement from this program till they are.

Western Kentucky (Last three recruiting ranks: 129, 91. 131)

WKU has played an exciting brand of football recently, and its record has not been reflective of a team ranking 129th or worse in recruiting in two
of the last three years. Is this the season it catches up?

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ANALYZING
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
COACHING CHANGES
FOR 2023
by Steve Makinen
The 2023 college football season will feature 23 new head coaches
at schools across the country, 14 of whom will be taking the lead
role on programs for a full season for the first time. As I start my
month-long dig into everything college football prepping for the 2023
campaign, my first subject matter is the coaching changes. They are
always impactful on teams’ prospects for a season, particularly early
on. Most VSiN readers will recognize that coaching changes play a
huge role in formulating my College Football Stability Scores prior to
each season.
About a month or so ago on VSiN.com, I put together a piece detailing
the performance trends of rookie and veteran NFL head coaches in
their first seasons with new teams. In that article, I found that most of
the rookie coaches over the last decade managed to improve their
teams’ won-lost records in their first season while the experienced guys
won only about 40% of their games. I’ll have more numbers regarding
this for college football in a few weeks when I look at carryover
systems, but I can tell you that the success rate at the college level for
coaching changes is nowhere near as high as NFL. There are a few
reasons for this, with instability being the primary one. A head coach
leaving in college football typically means new coordinators and new
systems on both sides of the ball. This is a lot for younger players to
overcome in a short time.
Typically, coaching changes at the college level are a result of just a
few possibilities. First, poor performance. In most cases, this comes
from a shortage of talent. Building a better overall talent level takes
time for new coaches. Second, a highly successful coach leaves for
a bigger, more established program. This is a painful one for all the
Group of Five teams each year, and re-establishing the magic can
prove difficult for the replacement. Third, longtime coaches simply
retire, leaving a huge void in the leadership position, as a program
naturally grows accustomed to certain routines, and change is never
easy nor always accepted willingly. In all three of these cases, you
can see how finding that lightning in a bottle in a coach’s first year
can be a challenge. This is opposed to the NFL, where teams are
more talent-equal, and a breath of fresh air can make a world of
difference.
With that in mind, let’s run through the 23 different head coaching
changes that have occurred since the conclusion of last season
at the FBS level. I’ll try to provide my insights as well as a
prediction on how that coach and program might fare in 2023,
with a particular focus on the DraftKings season win total props.
Following the breakdown of the new head coaches, you’ll find a list
showing all of the coordinator changes across the country for 2023
as well.
191
ARIZONA STATE
Conference: Pac-12
New Head Coach: Kenny Dillingham
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Herm Edwards - 6 seasons
2022 Record: 3-9 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Things got stale at Arizona State in Herm Edwards
era, and there was talk of utter chaos behind the scenes regarding
preparation level and players buying in. Obviously, this was a prudent
time to make a coaching change. Tempe will always be a rich environment
for being able to recruit kids so I wouldn’t suspect that this program will
be down for long. Kenny Dillingham takes over in 2023 after serving last
season as Oregon’s OC. He was a Sun Devils offensive assistant back in
2014 and 2015 and has served on staffs at four different schools since.
Better or Worse in ‘23: ASU was 3-9 last year, and DraftKings has set
the win-total prop for this season at 5. Naturally, that means the experts
think the Sun Devils will be better. There are 12 total starters back for
Dillingham, and he should have an interesting quarterback situation to build
on, a room that includes Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne. While I don’t
think ASU will be playing in a bowl game at the end of the ’23 season,
they should be better if for no other reason than the toxicity is gone.
AUBURN
Conference: SEC
New Head Coach: Hugh Freeze
Career Record: 82-43
Former Head Coach: Bryan Harsin - 2 seasons
2022 Record: 5-7 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Like Arizona State, the scene in the Auburn
football program got rather ugly in Bryan Harsin’s two seasons. There
were on- and off-the-field problems that weren’t going away until a
change was made. The Tigers made a pretty intriguing hire in luring
Hugh Freeze away from Liberty, where he had brought the Flames from
virtual nothingness to a perennial bowl squad with a very entertaining
style of play. Other than perhaps QB Bo Nix in ’21, there was little that
was entertaining in watching Auburn play over the last two years.
Better or Worse in ‘23: Freeze served as head coach at Ole Miss
from 2012-16 so he is familiar with the rigors that are the SEC West
Division. Auburn usually recruits very well, and Freeze should improve
on this, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. DraftKings calls
for 6.5 wins, which would be an improvement of 1.5 games. There are
just 12 starters back, and Freeze seems to be favoring Michigan State
transfer Peyton Thorne at the key QB position. I lean Under the 6.5.
CHARLOTTE
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Biff Poggi
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Will Healy - 4 seasons
2022 Record: 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: There were some reasonably high expectations
for Charlotte last season, returning 14 starters from the 2021 team
that finished 5-7. That group included multi-year starter Chris Reynolds
at quarterback. While he was not as good as in ’21, he was far from
the biggest problem. The defense allowed a tick under 40 Points per
game, including 56+ three times, and the 49ers won just three games.
Exit Will Healy and insert Biff Poggi, who comes over from Michigan
where he served as associate head coach over the last two years to Jim
Harbaugh.
Better or Worse in ‘23: Poggi was clearly critical to Michigan’s
success as the Wolverines made the CFP in both years he served there.
It will be interesting to see how he is able to guide a situation that is a
complete rebuild. QB Reynolds was a stabilizing factor while with the
49ers, but he is no longer there. Look for this Charlotte team to be one
of the most unstable programs out of the gate in ’23.
CINCINNATI
Conference: Big 12
New Head Coach: Scott Satterfield
Career Record: 72-40
Former Head Coach: Luke Fickell - 6 seasons
2022 Record: 9-4 SU & 3-9-1 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Luke Fickell led the Cincinnati program to new
heights in his six-year tenure, including a CFP berth following the ’21
season. The impact of his departure and the void left by many of his
former players choosing to leave with him will be great. Left to pick
up the pieces is Scott Satterfield, who comes over after four years at
Louisville. He was able to spend some time with the Bearcats during
bowl season however so he won’t be starting completely fresh.
Better or Worse in ‘23: The DraftKings win prop for Cincy in ’23 is
just 5.5 as it heads into its first season of Big 12 play. The last season
they fell below that number was in 2017, Fickell’s first season, when
they went 4-8. Since then, the program has averaged 10.6 wins per
season. Even with the conference change, that in itself is a testament to
how much the experts think this program will fall this season. While the
number of returning players is low, Satterfield will have an experienced
QB back in ASU transfer Emory Jones. Still, get it out of your head now
if you’re thinking this is the same Cincinnati team that has been ruling
the AAC lately.
COASTAL CAROLINA
Conference: Sun Belt
New Head Coach: Tim Beck
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Jamey Chadwell - 4 seasons
2022 Record: 9-4 SU & 4-9 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Tim Beck has served as an assistant offensive
coach at six different FBS schools dating back to ’91, but this will be
his first shot at a top job. It won’t be an easy one, as he takes over
a Coastal Carolina program that blossomed under Jamey Chadwell,
winning 31 games against just seven losses over the last three years.
Beck comes over from NC State, where he was OC and QB coach, so
he is familiar with the Carolina area and should do fairly well over time
in recruiting.
Better or Worse in ‘23: Beck got a huge early gift when three-year
starting quarterback Grayson McCall pulled his name from the transfer
portal and decided to stay with the Chanticleers for another season.
He has carried the offense for three seasons, accumulating an amazing
77-8 TD-Int ratio, and he has done it with completely experienced
rosters beside him or working with newbies. The offense will be fine.
The defense is where the questions lie, as that unit allowed 31+ Points
per game last season, a decline of over 10 Points per game. CCU
should still be very competitive in the Sun Belt, but they will have to do
it with scoring and will be a play against team early because of it.
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COLORADO
Conference: Pac-12
New Head Coach: Deion Sanders
Career Record: 0-0 in FBS
Former Head Coach: Karl Dorrell - 3 seasons
2022 Record: 1-11 SU & 2-10 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Coach Prime made a name for himself by
resurrecting the football program at FCS Jackson State, doing it by
stealing top talent from some of college football’s elite teams. He has
always done things with theatrics as well, so what has happened at
Colorado since his hiring was not unexpected. It has literally been
“showtime” since he arrived in Boulder, but not always for the good.
The Buffaloes program has brought in a lot of talent not seen around
those parts for decades, but in the process has blown up any level of
transitional stability that may have been in place. Regardless of what
happens in 2023, this will be a fun situation to watch.
Better or Worse in ‘23: The Colorado season win total is 3.5
according to DraftKings. That would be an improvement of 2.5 wins off
the 2022 season. Regardless of where they got that number from, in
my opinion, it is a total guess. It seems impossible at this point to have
any idea of how good of a coach Sanders will be in the Pac-12, how
much chemistry this completely rebuilt roster will have, and how long
the enthusiasm for the new Buffaloes will last. Undeniably the roster is
better, and there is a ton of energy surrounding the program, both from
fans and the TV networks apparently. Will a thumping at TCU in the
opener send things swirling on opening day? Could a competitive effort
(or massive upset win) build the hype beyond comprehension? If I had
to bet, I’d lean over on the 3.5 wins, but don’t hold me to it.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Tom Herman
Career Record: 54-22
Former Head Coach: Willie Taggart - 3 seasons
2022 Record: 5-7 SU & 6-6 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Admittedly, I have never been a big Willie Taggert
fan, and almost as if I predicted three years ago, he was never able
to fill the shoes of Lane Kiffin at FAU. Kiffin left him the remnants of a
program that was 11-3 in 2019, and Taggert proceeded to win five
games in each of the next three years. That said, I am a big fan of
the new hire by the Owls. Tom Herman made a name for himself with
Houston, going 22-5 in two seasons there. He didn’t live up to the
billing at Texas, but in my opinion, there are very few coaches capable
of doing that. He is back in familiar surroundings now as FAU sets sail
in its first season in the American Conference. Boca Raton is a great
place to recruit, and Herman should do well.
Better or Worse in ‘23: For as much as I like the hiring of Herman
long-term, this will be a highly unstable situation to start the season.
Not only are the Owls bringing back relatively few starters, including
a new quarterback, but they also have a pair of new coordinators and
are switching to a new conference. All of this adds up to what could be
a rebuilding situation in ’23. Play against, perhaps all season long.
KENT STATE
Conference: MAC
New Head Coach: Kenni Burns
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Sean Lewis - 6 seasons
2022 Record: 5-7 SU & ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Kent State was 5-7 last year following up a 7-7
season in ’21. The Golden Flashes lost three games by seven points or
less and did this while breaking in a new quarterback in Collin Schlee,
who took over for multi-year starter Dustin Crum. In other words, the
team remained competitive last season and the program expected to
do so again in ’23. That is until Head Coach Sean Lewis tendered his
resignation to pursue the OC job for Deion Sanders at Colorado, and
QB Schlee packed his bags and left for UCLA via the transfer portal.
Kenni Burns takes over the program after spending the last four years
as Associate Head Coach/Running Backs Coach at Minnesota.
Better or Worse in ‘23: The Golden Flashes seemed to be poised
to become a consistent contender in the MAC under Lewis, as they had
gone 22-21 in four years and proved to be one of the league’s more
potent offenses in that span. That is relatively all flushed now with Lewis
gone. Burns has a tough job to do here, particularly in his first season.
Almost impossible to see this team be better in ’23.
LIBERTY
Conference: C-USA
New Head Coach: Jamey Chadwell
Career Record: 39-22
Former Head Coach: Hugh Freeze - 4 seasons
2022 Record: 8-5 SU & 6-7 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Other than cashing a bigger paycheck, it’s hard
to get behind Jamey Chadwell choosing to leave Coastal Carolina in
favor of Liberty. Yes, it’s a new challenge, and yes, the Flames are
making the leap from an Independent program to Conference USA,
but how could this not be considered at best a lateral move? After his
success with CCU, I would have expected a bigger promotion to draw
him away. That said, there are big shoes to fill here, as Freeze won at
least eight games in all four seasons at Liberty.
Better or Worse in ‘23: The Flames’ offense plummeted to a sixth-
year low 27.5 Points per game last season after averaging at least 32
Points per game since, so perhaps Freeze knew the time was right to
move on. Projected QB Johnathan Bennett was good, not great in his
starts last year and figures to get the nod again this year. As usual,
however, Liberty plays one of the weakest schedules in the country
once again, and the won-lost record might not be impacted that greatly
by the changeover. However, I wouldn’t be comfortable laying points
with Chadwell’s club early in the season.
LOUISVILLE
Conference: ACC
New Head Coach: Jeff Brohm
Career Record: 65-44
Former Head Coach: Scott Satterfield - 4 seasons
2022 Record: 8-5 SU & ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Jeff Brohm is an almost ideal hire at Louisville,
returning to the school where he starred as a quarterback in the early
90s. Since then, he has made coaching stops at six different schools,
including Louisville to start his career as an assistant from ’03 to ’08.
This will be his third different head coaching gig, and his teams at
Western Kentucky and Purdue were well-known for their offensive
explosiveness. Unless this turns out to be a “Scott Frost returning to
Nebraska scenario,” it’s hard to see Brohm not doing well at his alma
mater.
Better or Worse in ‘23: Brohm takes over a program that is in pretty
good shape coming off an 8-5 campaign. However, things will look
much different going forward as the program moves on from multi-
talented QB Malik Cunnigham, who started the last four years as a
run/pass threat. The new attack will be more pro-style, and fortunately,
Brohm brings his starting quarterback at Purdue over with him in Jack
Plummer. He threw 47 TDs versus 19 interceptions for the Boilermakers
and is a big, strong kid. The Cardinals are projected to eight wins by
DraftKings, and it looks to be a very sharp number. If anything, I might
lean slightly Under due to the sizeable offensive transition.
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Conference: SEC
New Head Coach: Zach Arnett
Career Record: 1-0
Former Head Coach: Mike Leach - 3 seasons
2022 Record: 9-4 SU & 7-5-1 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: The passing of Mike Leach left a huge void in
the Mississippi State program, and college football for that matter.
The unenviable job of replacing Leach this past December fell to Zach
Arnett, who although a defensive-oriented coach, had bled Bulldog-red
for the last three seasons as the DC. The team responded well to Arnett
by beating Illinois in its bowl game, so I wouldn’t expect any major
change in this program for ’23.
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Better or Worse in ‘23: Arnett gets half of his starters back from
the nine-win team of 2022, including QB Will Rogers, so it should be
all systems go in this case. That said, only four of the starters back are
on defense, and that unit was pretty sound last year, allowing 23.0
Points per game, a four-year best, while holding five foes to 17 points
or fewer. This has to be why DraftKings expects just 6.5 wins from MSU
in ’23. In my opinion, it’s far easier to rebuild quickly on that side of
the ball, and thus I’ll project an over for this team in ’23. The other
coaching changes show far more instability than this one.
NAVY
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Brian Newberry
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Ken Niumatalolo - 16 seasons
2022 Record: 4-8 SU & 7-5 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: You have to go back 20 years to the last time
that Navy won just 11 games or fewer in a three-year span. It was
time for change for the Midshipmen although anyone expecting a
grandiose transition will have to modify their expectations. The program
has named its former Defensive Coordinator Brian Newberry as the
replacement for Ken Niumatalolo, who was here for 16 seasons.
Better or Worse in ‘23: Newberry has indicated the Navy will keep
the option attack as its modus operandi moving forward but he would
like new Offensive Coordinator Grant Chestnut (Kennesaw St OC) to
help the offense “evolve.” The stability of the system, the program, and
its athletes helps in cases of coaching changes at places like Navy. Off
back-to-back 4-8 seasons, there isn’t a whole lot of reason to suspect
that this year’s team will be much better or worse than its predecessors.
Any positive or negative fluctuation would likely come from an
unexpected win or loss early. As always, avenging the Army loss will
be the top priority.
NEBRASKA
Conference: Big Ten
New Head Coach: Matt Rhule
Career Record: 47-43
Former Head Coach: Scott Frost - 5 seasons
2022 Record: 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: The Scott Frost era at Nebraska turned out to be
an utter disappointment after being introduced with such hope and
hype five years ago. The Cornhuskers never won more than five games
in the tenure of Frost, despite noteworthy expectations. The new hire,
Matt Rhule, hasn’t been as glorified. However, it should produce better
results, as Rhule enjoyed great success with Baylor before a failed try
in the NFL with Carolina. While at Baylor, he took a program in big
trouble both on and off the field and went from 1-11 to 11-3 in just two
seasons.
Better or Worse in ‘23: DraftKings puts Nebraska’s win total for
2023 at six, somewhat surprising considering that record would land
the Cornhuskers in a bowl game for the first time since 2016. Is the
fresh start under Rhule enough to make that big of a difference? It
could be. Nebraska has been a top 30-type of recruiting program over
the last five years, and there figures to be an experienced QB under
center in dual-threat Jeff Sims, who started 23 games with Georgia
Tech. In all, expect about 14 starters returning. The Big Ten West is also
very winnable once again for any team that catches fire. I’ll take the
bait on this one and go over, figuring the Cornhuskers will benefit from
being a bit less under the radar this season.
NORTH TEXAS
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Eric Morris
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Seth Littrell - 7 seasons
2022 Record: 7-7 SU & 8-6 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: With the program seemingly stuck in neutral,
North Texas fired Head Coach Seth Littrell this past December. For
the past four seasons, he has been unable to replicate the success he
had driven in 2017 and 2018. A lot of that was using recruits from
the previous regime, however, and Littrell’s leadership didn’t take the
program any higher. With a step-up move to the American Conference
in 2023, UNT starts fresh with Eric Morris, who has helped lead high-
powered offenses at schools like Texas Tech, Incarnate Word, and
Washington State over the last decade or so in various roles. This will
be his first FBS head coaching job.
Better or Worse in ‘23: The first year(s) of Morris’ assignment at
North Texas are going to be a challenge. Not only is the team taking a
step up in play by joining the American Conference, but they will also
be without QB Austin Aune, who after starting three seasons for the
Mean Green, opted for the NFL draft after 2022 and landed with the
Atlanta Falcons. There was some significant optimism surrounding this
program last year, rightfully there is not as much heading into ’23. I
don’t expect UNT to be in position for a bowl bid again this December.
NORTHWESTERN
Conference: Big Ten
New Head Coach: David Braun
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald - 17 seasons
2022 Record: 1-11 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: The firing of Pat Fitzgerald happened fast and
happened late. In light of a hazing scandal, the university fired its
17-year head coach for what it deemed to be a broken culture. That
might explain a lot of what happened on the field last year, as clearly
something was broken. You have to wonder if the behavior was there
all along but the 4-20 record over the last two seasons is what tipped
things over the scale. In any case, Fitzgerald is replaced for 2023 on
an interim basis by the man he hired to be defensive coordinator this
season, David Braun, who came over from the DC position at North
Dakota State. He was part of two national titles over the four years he
spent in Fargo.
Better or Worse in ‘23: It’s almost impossible to get worse than
1-11 so I would expect that the Wildcats may have bottomed out last
season. They will be riding an 11-game losing skid into their opener at
Rutgers on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend. This team in turmoil will
be front and center in front of the country on a national TV broadcast.
There are 12 starters back for ’23, including QB Ryan Hilinski, who was
serviceable in the position last fall. The defense also only allowed 28.3
Points per game, not typical for a one-win club. I can see at least three
winnable games on the schedule and possibly more if this bunch can
put the negative drama behind it.
PURDUE
Conference: Big Ten
New Head Coach: Ryan Walters
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Jeff Brohm - 6 seasons
2022 Record: 8-6 SU & 5-9 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Purdue fans probably feel like they missed out
on a great window of opportunity for success under Jeff Brohm. The
offenses were explosive, there was solid talent at quarterback, and the
Big Ten West Division has seemingly been there for the taking for most
of the last five years. Only last year did the Boilermakers make it to
Indianapolis for the first time to play for a conference title. They proved
to be competitive in the game as well, putting up 456 yards of offense
on Michigan. Moving forward, it will be a big change, however, as
the program moves on from the offensive-minded Brohm to Eric Morris,
who has served as a defensive coordinator at Missouri, and most
recently Illinois, since 2016.
Better or Worse in ‘23: Morris gets only 11 starters back, third-
fewest in the Big Ten. While he is a defensive guy, he will rely on the
prowess of new OC Graham Harrell to keep the offense firing. And
while QB Aiden O’Connell has moved on to the NFL, the cupboard isn’t
completely bare, as Texas transfer and former highly-regarded recruit
Hudson Card has set himself apart in spring and figures to be the new
starter. Still, there is a reason that transitioning to a new head coach
and new systems is a challenge and the 2023 season at Purdue figures
to be a step back. The DK total is set at 5.5, meaning a third straight
bowl bid is unlikely. I agree. Lean Under.
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SOUTH FLORIDA
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Alex Golesh
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Jeff Scott - 3 seasons
2022 Record: 1-11 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Jeff Scott presided over the three worst seasons
in South Florida football history, with the team winning just four games
in his tenure. It has been a brutal run, and I can’t think of another
program at this point that was in more need of a fresh start. With a
vastly different, and probably weaker, AAC lined up for 2023, new
head coach Alex Golesh has a chance to immediately improve his
team’s record, even if they aren’t measurably better.
Better or Worse in ‘23: Golesh served as the OC at Tennessee over
the last two seasons and earned a shot at a first head coaching job by
leading the Vols offense to explosive numbers. In his first season at UT,
the offense went from 21.5 Points per game to 39.3 Points per game.
Talk about making a difference. Can he have that type of impact at USF?
Probably, but only if he can change things on the defensive side of the
ball. The 2023 Bulls couldn’t be nearly as bad as last season when they
allowed nine of 12 opponents to score 40+ points. The offense is in good
shape with QB Gerry Bohanon returning. That group scored 31.7 Points
per game in the second half of the season. For a variety of reasons, I think
things will be a little better for USF this fall.
STANFORD
Conference: Pac-12
New Head Coach: Troy Taylor
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: David Shaw - 12 seasons
2022 Record: 3-9 SU & 2-10 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: There were so many good moments in the David
Shaw era at Stanford, and it’s difficult to comprehend how badly things
fell apart in recent years. Since the 9-4 season of 2018, the Cardinal
didn’t win more than four games in any year, sinking to a low of 3-9 SU
and 2-10 ATS in ’22. Obviously, change was needed. Insert Troy Taylor,
who comes over from Sacramento State, where he led one of the more
successful and overachieving programs at the FCS level. This will be his
first head coaching job in FBS, but he has served as an assistant offensive
coach in the Pac 12 at Utah and California previously.
Better or Worse in ‘23: Recruiting is paramount in college football,
and Stanford struggled this year in the transition from Shaw to Taylor,
not surprisingly. Their overall rank on 247Sports dropped to 61st in
the country, very low by Cardinal standards. That’s not a great way to
begin a tenure. There are also just six total starters returning, the lowest
in the Pac-12 by far, and QB Tanner McKee is not one of them as he
has moved on to the NFL. The DraftKings win total prop is just three
and for good reason. It will take some time for this team to start being
a winning football program again.
TEXAS STATE
Conference: Sun Belt
New Head Coach: G. J. Kinne
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Jake Spavital - 4 seasons
2022 Record: 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Texas State scored fewer than 20 points in seven of
its 12 games last season, compiling a 4-8 record in the process. Clearly,
a lot of offense, and hence a lot of excitement was missing from the
program. So long Jake Spavital, insert G.J. Kinne, former head coach
of the only Division 1 football program that scored 50 Points per game
last season, Incarnate Word. It might take a while, but it should make the
Bobcats a more entertaining watch in the years to come.
Better or Worse in ‘23: Texas State hasn’t had a winning record since
2014. Spavital actually got the program to four wins in each of his final two
seasons. Those were the best in-season totals for the program since the 7-5
campaign nine years ago. Theoretically, the program is trending upward.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that pattern continues under the leadership of a
young, energetic offensive mind like Kinne, who is just 34 years old. One
of his first moves was to add Auburn transfer QB TJ Finley, a huge athletic
specimen at the position. This should be an interesting situation to watch.
TULSA
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Kevin Wilson
Career Record: 26-47
Former Head Coach: Philip Montgomery - 8 seasons
2022 Record: 5-7 SU & 3-8-1 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Tulsa underachieved last season, the final one in
the eight-year tenure of HC Philip Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane
had a good supply of starters returning from their 7-6 bowl-winning
team of 2021, including QB Davis Brin, but they wound up just 5-7 after
being upset three times. They were also just 3-8-1 ATS, a sure sign of a
team not playing to its potential. Montgomery was subsequently fired,
and Brin transferred to Georgia Southern. Hence the slate is virtually
wiped clean for new head coach Kevin Wilson, who most recently
served as the offensive coordinator at Ohio State since ’17. Prior to
that, he served six seasons as HC at Indiana.
Better or Worse in ‘23: Wilson has proven to be a far more
effective offensive coordinator than head coach in his experience
with Big Ten programs over the last decade-plus. He is riding some
solid momentum however having just led one of the nation’s most
explosive offenses. It’s been about seven years since Tulsa was
prolific on that side of the ball. I eventually think his team could get
there as the AAC has been weakened, but this will be a transitional
year for Wilson with new systems and a new quarterback in play.
Games in Week 2 at Washington and Week 3 at home versus
Oklahoma figure to be play against games on my Stability Mismatch
system.
UAB
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Trent Dilfer
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Bryant Vincent - 1 season
2022 Record: 7-6 SU & 4-9 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: The hiring of Trent Dilfer at UAB will be one of
the most interesting coaching transitions to follow in ’23. Dilfer comes
over with plenty of football experience, having played in the NFL and
owning a Super Bowl ring, and having served as an ESPN analyst
for many years afterward. His only coaching experience however
has been at the prep school level since 2019 at Lipscomb Academy in
Tennessee. He is a big name though, and often that’s a big benefit in
recruiting.
Better or Worse in ‘23: Dilfer’s job isn’t going to be easy, as not
only does he lack head coaching experience, but he also is replacing
an interim coach in Bryant Vincent whom the players really got behind.
On top of that, UAB is moving from CUSA to the AAC in 2023. There
will definitely be a lot new this fall for this program that has earned
bowl bids in every season since returning from the college football
dead back in 2017. I wouldn’t be surprised if that streak comes to an
end. Keep an eye on the progress of former four-star transfer QB Jacob
Zeno from Baylor. He should get the opportunity to strut his stuff for
Dilfer this fall.
UNLV
Conference: Mountain West
New Head Coach: Barry Odom
Career Record: 25-25
Former Head Coach: Marcus Arroyo - 3 seasons
2022 Record: 5-7 SU & 7-5 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: It seems so difficult to comprehend that a football
team out of Las Vegas can’t find consistent success. UNLV has been
to just four bowl games over the last 40 seasons, despite being in a
locale and stadium that would figure to be a gold mine for recruiting
while playing in a middle-of-the-road conference. This past season, the
Runnin’ Rebels were close, finishing 5-7, their best record since 2017
and a five-win improvement over just two years prior. Still, it wasn’t
enough, as a 1-6 collapse cost Marcus Arroyo his job. This time around,
the school went for experience in hiring Barry Odom, a former head
coach at Missouri. If you recall, UNLV plucked Arroyo from a local high
school.
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Better or Worse in ‘23: Is Odom the right guy to finally build UNLV
football to its potential? Time will tell, but the entire sports landscape in
Las Vegas has grown tremendously in recent years, and the emergence
of this football program would only add to the fervor. The starting
QB is back in Doug Brumfield, who had a decent season in 2022.
The schedule is also quite manageable, and this team did show some
progress last year, particularly early, and three of their last losses were
by sevent points or less. Another fast start is possible with a relatively
easy schedule early. If the Rebels can avoid another late collapse, I
could see this team in a bowl game in December.
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Conference: MAC
New Head Coach: Lance Taylor
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Tim Lester - 6 seasons
2022 Record: 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: Last year, I actually called for the demise of the
Western Michigan football program after a fairly long run of success.
It had seemed to be in doing a recruiting study that the program had
become lazy, and the standards had bottomed in recent years. The
Broncos were also bringing back a rather inexperienced team. That
turned out to be prophetic as WMU sunk to 4-8, its worst season since
2013. Consequently, Tim Lester was removed and replaced by Lance
Taylor. If you aren’t familiar, Taylor has coached at some high levels
previously, serving for two different NFL teams and five different FBS
schools, including, most recently, Louisville. He was the offensive
coordinator there.
Better or Worse in ‘23: This will be Taylor’s first head coaching
job at any level, and it figures to be a challenge. WMU has a recent
history of winning quite a bit in the MAC, but as I indicated earlier, the
recruiting grades in recent years have been trending downward. That’s
not a good sign for an instant turnaround. There also isn’t a returning
full-time starter at QB or Power Five transfer at the key position in for
this first season either. New coach, new systems, new QB, downward
recruiting trend…it all adds up to continued struggles for the Broncos in
’23.
WISCONSIN
Conference: Big Ten
New Head Coach: Luke Fickell
Career Record: 63-25
Former Head Coach: Paul Chryst - 8 seasons
2022 Record: 7-6 SU & 6-7 ATS
Steve’s Thoughts: There is no other program in college football
that is making a bigger transition in 2023 than Wisconsin, who moves
on from Paul Chryst/Jim Leonard to Luke Fickell. There might not be
another team across the landscape where the excitement level for the
coming year(s) is higher as well. Why is that? Well, the Badgers turn to
an Air Raid offense in ’23 under new OC Phil Longo after years of a
dedicated rushing attack, one that has essentially defined the program
over the last 30 years.
Better or Worse in ‘23: This is a tough one for me to call for the
coming season, as theoretically, the Badgers have so much going for
them, heightened recruiting standards, including transfers in for ’23,
renewed enthusiasm, the most returning starters in the Big Ten including
highly regarded RB Braelon Allen, and they play in one of the weakest
divisions of the Power Five conferences. Still, this big of a transition is
never easy, and rarely does it take off in year one. I am anticipating
the defense still being strong, the better unit by far. In the Spring
Game, the new offense struggled behind SMU transfer QB Tanner
Mordecai. I anticipate growing pains here and the DraftKings win total
prop has dropped from 9 to 8.5 since I first saw it. Both might be a bit
overzealous.
I’ve mentioned some of the key coordinator changes in my analysis
above but here is the complete list of changes for 2023. If you’re
unfamiliar with any of the names and are intrigued by any season-win
total wager opportunities for those teams, I would encourage you to
just do a quick internet search on them. I only reference changes when
an entire position is taken over. This does not include when one of two
co-coordinators leaves and the other stays.
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR
CHANGES FOR 2023
These are all of the offensive coordinator changes for the 2023 season,
with 65 in all, almost half of the nation’s 133 teams. The most influential
situations figure to revolve around the situations at Alabama, Georgia,
and Ohio State, all of whom figure to be in the national title hunt once
again. The move at Wisconsin is also very curious, as the Badgers
transition from a long-run power-rushing attack to an air raid style
under Phil Longo.
AKRON: Billy Fessler replaces Joe Moorhead
ALABAMA: Tommy Rees replaces Bill O’Brien
APPALACHIAN ST: Frank Ponce replaces Kevin Barbay
ARIZONA ST: Beau Baldwin replaces Glenn Thomas
ARKANSAS: Dan Enos replaces Kendal Briles
ARKANSAS ST: Logan Kilgore replaces Keith Heckendorf
ARMY: Matt Drinkall / Drew Thatcher replaces Brent Davis
AUBURN: Philip Montgomery replaces Eric Kiesau
BOISE ST: Bush Hamdan replaces Tim Plough
BOSTON COLLEGE: Steve Shimko replaces John McNulty
BOWLING GREEN: Greg Nosal / Max Warner replaces Terry Malone
BUFFALO: DJ Mangas replaces Shane Montgomery
CALIFORNIA: Jake Spavital replaces Bill Musgrave
CHARLOTTE: Mike Miller replaces Mark Carney
CINCINNATI: Brad Glenn replaces Gino Guidugli
CLEMSON: Garrett Riley replaces Brandon Streeter
COASTAL CAROLINA: Travis Trickett replaces Willy Korn / Newland Isaac
COLORADO: Sean Lewis replaces Mike Sanford Jr.
FLA ATLANTIC: Charlie Frye replaces Brent Dearmon
FRESNO ST: Pat McCann replaces Kirby Moore
GEORGIA: Mike Bobo replaces Todd Monken
GEORGIA TECH: Buster Faulkner replaces Chip Long
HOUSTON: Dana Holgorsen replaces Shannon Dawson / Brandon Jones
IOWA ST: Nathan Scheelhaase replaces Tom Manning
KENT ST: Matt Johnson replaces Andrew Sowder
KENTUCKY: Liam Coen replaces Rich Scangarello
LIBERTY: Newland Isaac / Willy Korn replaces Kent Austin / Maurice Harris
LOUISVILLE: Brian Brohm replaces Lance Taylor
MARYLAND: Josh Gattis / Kevin Sumlin replaces Dan Enos / Mike Miller
MIAMI FL: Shannon Dawson replaces Josh Gattis
MIAMI OHIO: Patrick Welsh replaces Eric Koehler
MISSISSIPPI ST: Kevin Barbay replaces Mike Leach
MISSOURI: Kirby Moore replaces Curtis Luper
NAVY: Grant Chesnut replaces Brent Davis
NC STATE: Robert Anae replaces Tim Beck
NEBRASKA: Marcus Satterfield replaces Mark Whipple
NEW MEXICO: Bryant Vincent replaces Derek Warehime
NORTH CAROLINA: Chip Lindsey replaces Phil Longo
NORTH TEXAS: Jordan Davis replaces Mike Bloesch / Tommy Mainord
NOTRE DAME: Gerad Parker replaces Tommy Rees
OHIO ST: Brian Hartline replaces Kevin Wilson
OLD DOMINION: Kevin Decker replaces Dave Patenaude
PURDUE: Graham Harrell replaces Brian Brohm
RUTGERS: Kirk Ciarrocca replaces Sean Gleeson
SAM HOUSTON ST: Brad Cornelson replaces John Perry
SAN DIEGO ST: Ryan Lindley replaces Jeff Hecklinski
SOUTH CAROLINA: Dowell Loggains replaces Marcus Satterfield
SOUTH FLORIDA: Joel Gordon / Matt Merritt replaces Travis Trickett
STANFORD: Troy Taylor replaces Tavita Pritchard
SYRACUSE: Jason Beck replaces Robert Anae
TENNESSEE: Joey Halzle replaces Alex Golesh
TEXAS A&M: Bobby Petrino replaces Darrell Dickey
TEXAS ST UNIV: Mack Leftwich replaces Jake Spavital
TULANE: Slade Nagle replaces Jim Svoboda
TULSA: Steve Spurrier Jr. replaces Philip Montgomery
TX-SAN ANTONIO: Justin Burke replaces Matt Mattox / Will Stein
UAB: Alex Mortensen replaces Bryant Vincent
UCF: Darin Hinshaw replaces Chip Lindsey
UNLV: Brennan Marion replaces Nick Holz
196
UTAH ST: Kyle Cefalo replaces Anthony Tucker
UTEP: Scotty Ohara replaces Dave Warner
W MICHIGAN: Billy Cosh replaces Eric Evans / Jeff Thorne
WASHINGTON ST: Ben Arbuckle replaces Eric Morris
WEST VIRGINIA: Chad Scott replaces Graham Harrell
WISCONSIN: Phil Longo replaces Bobby Engram
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR
CHANGES FOR 2023
There were 65 offensive coordinator changes. There are much fewer
on the defensive side of the ball, 48 to be exact. There aren’t as
many high-profile changes in this grouping as in the offense, although
Alabama does move on from Pete Golding. He will be replaced by
Kevin Steele, who comes over from Miami. Lance Guidry is the new
Hurricanes’ DC.
ALABAMA: Kevin Steele replaces Pete Golding
APPALACHIAN ST: Scott Sloan replaces Dale Jones
ARIZONA ST: Brian Ward replaces Donnie Henderson
ARKANSAS: Travis Williams / Marcus Woodson replaces Barry Odom
AUBURN: Ron Roberts replaces Jeff Schmedding
BAYLOR: Matt Powledge replaces Ron Roberts
BOSTON COLLEGE: Aazaar Abdul-Rahim / Sean Duggan replaces Tem Lukabu
BOWLING GREEN: Sammy Lawanson / Steve Morrison replaces Eric Lewis
BUFFALO: Robert Wright replaces Brandon Bailey
BYU: Jay Hill replaces Ilaisa Tuiaki
CHARLOTTE: Ryan Osborn replaces Greg Brown
CINCINNATI: Bryan Brown / Nate Fuqua replaces Mike Tressel
COASTAL CAROLINA: Craig Naivar replaces Chad Staggs
COLORADO: Charles Kelly replaces Chris Wilson
DUKE: Tyler Santucci replaces Robb Smith
E MICHIGAN: Taver Johnson / Ben Needham replaces Neal Neathery
FLA ATLANTIC: Roc Bellantoni replaces Todd Orlando
GA SOUTHERN: Brandon Bailey replaces Will Harris
GEORGIA ST: Chad Staggs replaces Nate Fuqua
ILLINOIS: Aaron Henry replaces Ryan Walters
KENT ST: David Duggan replaces Jeremiah Johnson
LOUISVILLE: Ron English replaces Bryan Brown / Wes McGriff
MARSHALL: Jason Semore / Chevis Jackson replaces Lance Guidry
MIAMI FL: Lance Guidry replaces Kevin Steele / Charlie Strong
MISSISSIPPI ST: Matt Brock replaces Zach Arnett
NAVY: P.J. Volker replaces Brian Newberry
NEBRASKA: Tony White replaces Erik Chinander
NEW MEXICO: Troy Reffett replaces Rocky Long
NORTH TEXAS: Matt Caponi replaces Phil Bennett / Jim Gush
NORTHWESTERN: David Braun replaces Jim O’Neil
OKLAHOMA ST: Jim Bob Clements / Bryan Nardo replaces Derek Mason
OLE MISS: Pete Golding replaces Maurice Crum Jr. / Chris Partridge
PURDUE: Kevin Kane replaces Ron English / Mark Hagen
SOUTH FLORIDA: Todd Orlando replaces Bob Shoop
SOUTHERN MISS: Dan O’Brien replaces Austin Armstrong
STANFORD: Bobby April III replaces Lance Anderson
SYRACUSE: Rocky Long replaces Tony White
TEMPLE: Everett Withers replaces D. J. Eliot
TEXAS ST UNIV: Jonathan Patke replaces Brian Gambel / Zac Spavital
TROY: Greg Gasparato / Tayler Polk replaces Shiel Wood
TULANE: Shiel Wood replaces Chris Hampton
TULSA: Chris Polizzi replaces Luke Olson
UAB: Sione Ta’ufo’ou replaces David Reeves
UCLA: D’Anton Lynn replaces Bill McGovern
UNLV: Michael Scherer replaces Keith Heyward
UTAH ST: Joe Cauthen replaces Ephraim Banda
WASHINGTON ST: Jeff Schmedding replaces Brian Ward
 STEVE MAKINEN’S

4-YEAR EFFECTIVE STATS

Everything in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide is in there for a
reason. One of the areas that draws questions every year is the 4-YEAR
EFFECTIVE STATS charts on each team’s page. The stats shown on here
are what I refer to as my Effective Stats. In other words, they are raw
stats weighted against schedule strength and other in-game adjustment
I make to my ratings sets. In my opinion, these provide a clearer
picture of a team’s strength of lack thereof than raw statistics.
As far as how to get the best usage out of these EFFECTIVE STATS,
for me, I use them to spot teams that are 1) trending upward or
downward 2) showing unusual patterns. You might look for one-year
flashes in Effective Offensive Points, or unusually low of high Effective
Yards Per Point totals. These types of things can result from unusual
circumstances, like head coach or coordinator changes, bad turnover
luck, or seasons impacted by key injuries.
In general, teams that are trending upward offensively or
defensively, and have stable coaching situations tend to make for the
most optimal picks to do well, and vice versa.

AIR FORCE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 44 16 0.9 -11.4 8 QB 30.3 5.91 13.23 7, DC 15.3 5 16.52

2021 46 17.8 1.25 -16 7-QB 35.8 6.08 12.52 7 17.9 4.83 15.24

2020 41.5 18 0.58 2.9 4-QB 23.8 5.93 15.53 5 20.7 5.35 15.52

2019 49.5 22.3 1.71 -21.2 7-QB 37.2 6.79 12.15 7 15.7 5.08 18.88

AKRON
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 24.5 -4.3 -0.22 6.9 8, OC 24.1 5.4 16.39 8, DC 29.6 5.63 12.93

2021 17 -12.4 -1.08 11.1 10-QB 22.3 5.65 16.51 10 35.2 6.73 12.48

2020 15.5 -17.8 -3.6 25.5 7-QB 10 4.43 26.55 6 40.9 8.03 11.95

2019 Yes 7.5 -23.8 -1.56 18.2 7-QB, OC 10.3 4.07 23.91 3, DC 34.9 5.63 11.7

ALABAMA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 69.5 42 4.2 -39.4 5 QB 48.7 8.08 11.62 7 8.2 3.89 32.8

2021 71 39.5 3.87 -41.2 4, OC 50.6 7.94 11.56 8 11.1 4.07 23.73

2020 80 53.9 3.96 -36.2 7 54.9 8.58 10.85 5 14.1 4.62 22.83

2019 72.5 45.5 4.63 -42.7 6-QB, OC 55.8 8.9 10.46 6 12.4 4.26 22.92

APPALACHIAN ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 42 12.4 1.54 -16.3 7 QB, OC 38.5 6.76 12.17 5 27.1 5.22 12.56

2021 48 21.1 1.84 -18.3 7, OC 37.2 6.55 12.23 10 16.1 4.71 19.1

2020 Yes 45.5 15.6 0.18 -6 8-QB, OC 26.4 5.57 15.16 5, DC 23.9 5.4 14.43

2019 Yes 51.5 24.6 1.77 -18 10-QB, OC 40.5 6.57 11.28 6, DC 16.7 4.8 19.34

197
ARIZONA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 42.5 14 2.63 -11.1 7 QB 37.9 8.25 14.71 8, DC 25 5.63 16

2021 Yes 31.5 1.5 0.63 -6.3 7, OC 25.7 5.76 16.18 8, DC 24.2 5.13 13.33

2020 35 -0.2 -0.97 1.5 7-QB 20 5.33 19.84 6, DC 34.7 6.29 12.74

2019 41.5 10.7 1.77 -13 7-QB 34.6 7.24 15.21 8 25.2 5.47 16.06

ARIZONA ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 40.5 10.3 1.5 -13.1 3, OC 30.9 6.8 14.47 4, DC 21.6 5.3 17.19

2021 50 18.4 2.47 -20.3 9-QB 34.5 7.03 12.78 11 16.1 4.56 18.7

2020 53.5 34.6 2.37 -8.5 4-QB, OC 40.5 7.57 11.77 8, DC 19.1 5.21 21.98

2019 49 20 2.19 -19.4 8 33.4 6.94 13.46 7 14.2 4.74 23.59

ARKANSAS
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 53 22.9 2.06 -23.2 7 QB 40.2 7.52 13.71 4 19 5.46 20.29

2021 55 23.8 2.86 -25.1 9 38.5 7.57 13.5 10 14.7 4.71 21.99

2020 Yes 46 18.7 1.62 -6.1 8, OC 31.5 6.63 14.25 6, DC 26.2 5.01 15.29

2019 35.5 4.3 0.74 -8.6 6 30.7 6.31 13.41 6 27.2 5.58 14.12

ARKANSAS ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 26 1.2 -0.33 1.6 5 QB 29.5 5.17 11.33 5 29.3 5.5 13.03

2021 Yes 25 -6.4 -0.98 2.8 6 28.7 5.8 14.73 9, DC 35.1 6.78 13.51

2020 33.5 2.7 -0.64 10.4 9-QB 29.6 6.02 15.68 4 40.1 6.66 12.41

2019 34 6.2 0.79 -8 6, OC 34.6 6.59 13.27 7, DC 29.5 5.8 15.47

ARMY
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 41 9.8 0.55 -8.3 8 QB 31.1 6.28 12.67 6 22.3 5.73 16.03

2021 42 14.4 0.3 -11.8 6-QB 36.8 5.94 11.1 8 20.4 5.64 15.39

2020 40.5 12.6 -1.34 4.9 5 22.7 4.38 12.78 7, DC 23.1 5.73 13.33

2019 38 8.5 0.27 -7.5 7-QB 28.8 5.83 13.78 4, DC 21.4 5.56 15.84

AUBURN
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 50.5 18.5 2.57 -19.2 7, OC 35.8 7.16 13.27 6, DC 18.4 4.59 17.83

2021 Yes 54 24.7 2.4 -22.8 9-QB, OC 38.5 6.92 12.45 7, DC 14.4 4.52 22.31

2020 52.5 25.8 1.03 -12 5-QB, OC 30.3 6.21 14.04 5, DC 17.6 5.17 20.83

2019 63.5 37.3 3.05 -30.9 7, OC 43.7 6.98 11.9 7 7.2 3.93 37.68

BALL ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 29.5 1.4 0.47 -0.2 6 24.6 5.34 16.08 5 24.2 4.87 15.73

2021 36.5 4.1 -0.15 -6.6 10-QB 26.4 5.32 13.48 10 22.3 5.47 17.59

2020 41.5 14.4 -0.8 6.1 7-QB, OC 27.9 5.56 15.56 7, DC 26.6 6.36 17.44

2019 37 9.1 0.8 -7.9 8 36.2 6.39 13.37 9 28 5.59 14.6

198
BAYLOR
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 54.5 25 2.27 -28.5 6 39.9 6.94 12.74 6 15.9 4.67 20.16

2021 56 27.2 2.54 -24.8 7, OC 37.7 7.26 13.03 10 10.9 4.72 28.29

2020 Yes 44 15.6 -0.34 -3.4 7-QB, OC 26.8 4.8 12.51 2, DC 24.3 5.14 14.7

2019 60 31.6 3.15 -16.3 8-QB 41.1 7.43 12.1 7 10.3 4.28 30.75

BOISE ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 45.5 16.2 1.52 -17.8 8 QB 33.8 5.98 11.75 9 18.6 4.47 14.47

2021 Yes 48 21.4 0.89 -16.5 9-QB, OC 36.1 5.86 11.77 8, DC 14.7 4.97 22.5

2020 47.5 16.7 -0.15 -8.1 5-QB 36 5.26 9.42 6 32.4 5.42 11.88

2019 52.5 24.2 1.56 -20.5 6 39.2 6.51 11.95 7, DC 16.5 4.95 19.82

BOSTON COLLEGE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 36 4.2 0.43 -8.3 6 QB, OC 26.6 5.39 13.53 8 24.5 4.96 13.61

2021 43 13 0.78 -15 9-QB 28.5 5.83 13.25 8 17.8 5.05 17.98

2020 Yes 46.5 17.7 0.04 -4.3 6-QB, OC 29 5.9 13.91 9, DC 24.7 5.87 16.22

2019 42 14.4 0.98 -13.6 6-QB, OC 37.7 6.73 13.65 3, DC 24.8 5.75 17.27

BOWLING GREEN
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 28 -1.6 -0.15 -1.0 9 QB 26.9 5.34 13.34 9 29.9 5.49 13.29

2021 27 -3.1 0.2 2.7 5-QB 23.3 5.19 14.4 8, DC 26.5 4.99 13.36

2020 11 -27.5 -2.15 26.7 5 4.5 4.92 68.94 6 45.1 7.07 11.17

2019 Yes 12.5 -16.7 -1.91 19 7, OC 19.2 4.8 17.46 5, DC 36.7 6.7 12.16

BUFFALO
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 32 5 -0.89 -3.4 3 30.1 5.01 12.75 6, DC 26.1 5.89 14.69

2021 Yes 31.5 1.4 -0.77 -5.7 7-QB, OC 28.7 5.48 14.41 8, DC 28 6.25 14.65

2020 46.5 22.4 0.85 -5.9 8-QB 37 7 12.21 7 27.6 6.15 15.74

2019 40 11.2 0.69 -7.8 5 32.2 5.5 12.46 3 21.9 4.81 13.27

BYU
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 45.5 13.3 2.03 -14.6 8 QB 36 7.52 13.51 11 23.7 5.49 15.79

2021 48.5 20.1 2.31 -18.9 7, OC 39 7.49 13.01 3 18.9 5.18 18.64

2020 57.5 34.7 2.12 -16.6 8-QB 41.5 7.29 11.57 7 19.9 5.16 16.55

2019 45.5 15.1 1.74 -17.8 9-QB 33.3 6.78 14.46 8 19.8 5.04 17.84

C MICHIGAN
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 29.5 -0.1 0.34 -4.1 7 QB, OC 26.5 5.43 14.24 4 27.6 5.08 13.28

2021 41.5 10.4 0.74 -8.9 11-QB, OC 33 6.28 14.15 10 22.6 5.54 16.8

2020 36 9.2 -0.62 3.5 5 25.5 5.54 15.71 7 30.1 6.16 14.96

2019 Yes 38.5 9.4 1.1 -7 8-QB, OC 33.1 6.29 13.76 3, DC 25.5 5.19 13.49

199
CALIFORNIA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 40 13 1.44 -12.4 3 29.5 6.53 14.49 5 17.5 5.09 21.42

2021 45.5 15.1 2.01 -15.9 10-QB 30.2 6.74 14.59 9 15.4 4.73 21.27

2020 46 14.7 -0.54 -4.3 10-QB, OC 22.4 4.78 15.35 8, DC 20.8 5.32 16.54

2019 47.5 18.8 1.48 -15.7 4-QB 28.9 6.03 13.44 7 12.2 4.55 26.94

CHARLOTTE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 22.5 -7.5 -0.61 5.8 8 QB 25.8 6.12 15.85 6, DC 35 6.73 13.13

2021 24 -5.6 -1.08 3.3 9-QB 25.8 5.94 15.8 5 31.4 7.02 14.58

2020 28.5 -0.6 -2.09 11.2 7-QB, OC 24.2 5.04 14.47 6, DC 38.8 7.13 11.75

2019 Yes 33.5 2.7 0.59 0.6 5-QB, OC 32.5 6.57 13.36 7, DC 30.6 5.98 12.41

CINCINNATI
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 48.5 20.1 2.23 -18.5 8, OC 33.7 6.43 12.55 5 15 4.21 20.43

2021 59.5 30.2 3.35 -24.9 7-QB 42 7.4 10.9 7, DC 11.9 4.05 24.15

2020 58.5 33.8 2.23 -19.4 6-QB 36.6 6.71 12.45 9 16 4.48 20.17

2019 49 21.2 1.67 -18 7-QB 34.1 6.33 12.87 7 13.7 4.66 24.59

CLEMSON
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 59.5 29.9 2.42 -26.9 9 QB, OC 42 6.89 11.12 6, DC 13 4.48 22.53

2021 56 24.4 1.95 -22.5 5 32.9 5.94 12.49 10 8.4 3.99 32.86

2020 74.5 45.8 2.45 -30 5-QB 47.9 6.93 10.93 6 16.5 4.48 17.55

2019 79 50.1 4.89 -46.3 8-QB 52.8 8.43 11.63 4 3.5 3.54 62.39

COASTAL CAROLINA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 35.5 7.4 0.42 -10.9 4 QB 32.7 6.47 13.37 3 27.1 6.06 14.36

2021 46.5 18.7 2.05 -18.5 9-QB 38.3 7.42 12.54 10 20.3 5.37 16.46

2020 49.5 25.2 0.53 -6.3 8-QB 33.5 6.25 12.55 6, DC 21.9 5.72 16.64

2019 Yes 29.5 2.2 -0.4 0.8 7, OC 27.6 5.61 14.49 8 26.2 6.01 14.57

COLORADO
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 23.5 -5.8 -0.33 -0.4 7 QB, OC 24.1 5.66 14.64 5 31.6 5.99 13.43

2021 39 7.8 -0.16 -7.7 9-QB 27.7 5.12 10.87 8, DC 19.9 5.28 18.46

2020 Yes 45.5 19.1 0.53 -4.6 6, OC 31.7 5.79 13.7 8 25.7 5.26 14.24

2019 Yes 42.5 13 1.26 -10 7-QB, OC 33.3 6.76 14.32 4, DC 21.2 5.49 17.63

COLORADO ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 26 -5.2 0.35 5.6 6, OC 18.6 5.19 16.45 6, DC 25.3 4.84 13.18

2021 34 4.5 0.93 -9.4 10, OC 29.6 5.98 15.36 10 25.1 5.05 13.93

2020 Yes 35 -0.6 -0.06 6.4 7-QB, OC 24.6 4.76 13.16 8, DC 38.2 4.82 9.39

2019 35.5 3.4 1.26 -6.7 5-QB 31.7 6.58 14.56 6 29.1 5.31 12.34

200
CONNECTICUT
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 28.5 -0.7 -0.19 2.2 7, OC 24.2 5.16 13.03 8 25.9 5.35 14.32

2021 15 -14.5 -1.09 13.2 7-QB 20.8 4.4 13.82 8 35.4 5.49 11.85

2020 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

2019 16 -14 -1.17 12.4 6, OC 21.1 5.43 17.34 10, DC 36.2 6.61 12.15

DUKE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 47 20.3 1.59 -16.5 6, OC 38.7 6.76 11.85 5, DC 19.4 5.17 18.21

2021 25 -5.1 -0.39 -2.8 6, OC 25.8 6.03 18.19 6 31.2 6.42 14.94

2020 34 4.2 -0.79 1.1 7 25.7 5.23 15.31 7 34.6 6.01 12.4

2019 40.5 13.2 0.65 -14.5 4 33.4 5.31 11.56 8 21 4.66 15.73

E MICHIGAN
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 33 2.6 -0.13 -1.6 8 29.5 5.31 12.39 6 28.2 5.43 12.88

2021 35 6.4 -0.27 -4.8 10-QB, OC 32.7 5.7 11.99 10 26.4 5.97 15.84

2020 32 5 -1.22 13.4 5, OC 25 5.49 15.32 6, DC 33.1 6.71 15.56

2019 30.5 2.7 0.44 -1.6 6 30.5 6.29 13.65 4 28.6 5.85 14.54

EAST CAROLINA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 42 14.3 1.53 -16.1 7 QB 34.7 7.22 14.49 8 21.4 5.68 17.68

2021 40.5 12.2 0.78 -12.2 10-QB 33.5 6.32 14.1 10 21.3 5.54 17.13

2020 37.5 8.6 -0.6 9.3 8-QB 29 5.58 13.98 4, DC 33.5 6.18 13.27

2019 Yes 26.5 -1.4 -0.31 0.3 7-QB, OC 28.3 5.99 15.9 7, DC 30.5 6.3 14.82

FLA ATLANTIC
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 36 8 0.05 -5.3 8 QB, OC 30 5.88 14.22 6, DC 23 5.83 17.87

2021 31 2.9 0.29 -8.8 10-QB, OC 25.6 5.95 16.21 10, DC 22.7 5.66 17.5

2020 Yes 33 3.2 -1.05 1.5 4, OC 15.9 4.52 18.52 3, DC 25.8 5.56 14.35

2019 47.5 19.1 1.12 -13.3 7-QB 38.8 6.24 12 6, DC 20.5 5.13 17.24

FLA INTERNATIONAL

Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 14 -17.1 -1.27 13.4 4, OC 17.7 4.73 18.32 5, DC 35.8 6 12.53

2021 11.5 -17.4 -0.58 8.9 8-QB, OC 19.9 5.99 18.78 9, DC 37.4 6.57 12.93

2020 23.5 -7.4 -2.16 15.5 4 22.1 4.19 11.6 6 42.6 6.35 10.94

2019 33.5 2.2 0.09 -2 8-QB 27.7 5.64 13.62 8, DC 26.3 5.56 14.24

FLORIDA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 53 23 3.11 -22.8 6 39.9 8.19 13.37 7, DC 18 5.07 19.71

2021 49 19.4 2.92 -21.5 5, OC 37.3 7.71 14.52 5 17.9 4.79 17.82

2020 64.5 33.9 2.62 -24.1 6-QB 44.4 7.95 12.3 6 23.6 5.33 16.04

2019 66.5 37.9 3.57 -31.3 5-QB 44.3 7.69 11.45 8 7.2 4.12 35.7

201
FLORIDA ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 60 31.5 3.65 -28.9 8 QB, OC 44.7 7.85 12.18 8 14.2 4.19 19.25

2021 48 16.4 2.21 -17 10-QB 34.3 6.75 12.91 6 17.8 4.54 18.55

2020 Yes 40.5 7.7 -0.43 1.9 7-QB, OC 27.4 5.77 15.07 10, DC 33.1 6.21 13.24

2019 48 16.2 2 -17.6 8-QB, OC 35.4 6.74 13.13 8 20 4.74 19.22

FRESNO ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 47.5 16.3 1.01 -15.4 8 QB, OC 34.6 6.1 11.82 7, DC 20.5 5.09 16.5

2021 46 17.4 1.63 -15.1 9-QB 36.4 6.57 13.2 11 19 4.94 17.39

2020 Yes 34.5 2.8 -1.4 4.5 7 27.9 5.55 15.41 7, DC 38.2 6.95 12.74

2019 36.5 9.1 1.2 -9.8 3, OC 33.7 6.53 12.39 6 25.4 5.33 15.35

GA SOUTHERN
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 35 8.8 0.23 -5.9 8, OC 38.2 6.54 13.05 5, DC 30.4 6.31 15.49

2021 28.5 -4.8 -0.75 3.6 7, OC 23 5.36 15.76 7 27.8 6.11 15.08

2020 37.5 6.9 -0.49 7.3 8-QB 22.4 5.35 14.78 6 29.7 5.84 12.48

2019 40 10.6 0.46 -6.4 7-QB 30 5.72 12.04 7 21.1 5.27 16.64

GEORGIA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 74.5 47 4.4 -47.1 7 QB 48 8.45 12.42 3 2.1 4.05 118.26

2021 72 46.3 4.6 -43.2 8-QB 47.6 8.1 10.87 5 1.3 3.5 174.57

2020 65.5 35.5 2.16 -22.7 3-QB, OC 38.1 6.66 12.05 8, DC 15.7 4.5 19.02

2019 67 38.3 3.68 -37.5 6-QB 42 7.38 11.75 6, DC 4.5 3.71 51.92

GEORGIA ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 38.5 8.1 0.86 -9.8 8 QB, OC 33.2 6.21 13.65 7 26.1 5.35 14.19

2021 38.5 6.8 0.79 -5.6 11-QB 29.2 5.93 14.13 8 22.4 5.14 16.86

2020 37 7.3 -0.59 7.8 8 30.6 5.4 13.03 8 36.3 5.98 12.3

2019 29 3.2 -0.12 -6 7-QB, OC 33.9 6.19 13.94 7 31.5 6.31 13.56

GEORGIA TECH
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 40.5 9 0.93 -7.9 5 QB, OC 26.6 5.95 14.8 3 19.1 5.02 17.94

2021 37.5 9 1.16 -11.2 7-QB 32.1 6.8 13.88 9 23.1 5.64 16.83

2020 39.5 6.1 0.4 5.2 9-QB 25.9 5.96 15.93 10 32.9 5.56 13.24

2019 Yes 33.5 0.9 0.5 -6.3 5, OC 26.4 5.6 12.67 4, DC 26.3 5.1 14.06

HAWAII
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 20.5 -10.1 -1.22 9.9 4, OC 23.7 5.15 14.97 2 35 6.37 12.1

2021 33.5 4 0.79 -0.4 8-QB, OC 30.9 6.24 13.88 10 27.5 5.45 15.35

2020 Yes 34 4.6 -1.03 6.7 6, OC 25.4 5.23 15.01 5, DC 33.9 6.26 13.03

2019 39 12.5 1.56 -9.4 9-QB 38.4 7.34 13.42 9 26.7 5.78 14.66

202
HOUSTON
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 44 15 1.91 -15.9 7 QB 38.5 7.35 13.31 6 24.5 5.45 16.01

2021 48.5 20.4 1.45 -19.6 6-QB 38.2 6.18 11.28 9 17.8 4.73 16.14

2020 45 16.6 0.31 -6 10-QB, OC 32.6 6.02 13.45 9, DC 29.1 5.71 13.89

2019 Yes 36.5 11.7 0.84 -9.6 8-QB, OC 33.6 6.9 13.35 4, DC 22.7 6.06 18.37

ILLINOIS
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 54.5 28.1 2.31 -22.3 6, OC 35.6 6.08 12.44 6 8.5 3.77 27.4

2021 Yes 42 13.5 1.16 -10.1 9-QB, OC 29 5.75 13.07 9, DC 15.8 4.59 20.33

2020 40.5 8.9 -0.14 -2.6 9-QB 28.9 5.88 13.23 5 33.9 6.02 12.7

2019 42.5 14.9 0.48 -13.1 7 35.7 5.53 10.05 10, DC 21.8 5.04 17.02

INDIANA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 38 10.9 0.59 -6.5 4, OC 34.4 5.54 11.76 7, DC 24.5 4.95 15.41

2021 36 6.2 0.52 -11.7 8-QB 27.8 5.26 12.91 9, DC 23.5 4.74 13.77

2020 59.5 33.6 0.6 -9.8 8-QB, OC 35.4 5.61 10.96 9, DC 15.6 5.01 21.42

2019 50 20.8 1.9 -21 7-QB, OC 39.5 6.78 12.51 7, DC 20 4.88 15.92

IOWA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 50 21 1.46 -21.8 7 QB 28.3 5 10.68 7 8.3 3.54 29.04

2021 50 20.4 1.2 -20.8 6-QB 33.5 5.32 10.39 7 13.1 4.12 21.82

2020 60 35.2 1.62 -12 7 38 5.73 10.27 4 15.9 4.12 18.71

2019 56 28.4 2.42 -27 6-QB 33.3 6.54 13.11 4 5.7 4.12 46.5

IOWA ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 47.5 20.6 2.2 -22.8 5 28.6 6.21 15.76 3 9.1 4.01 26.69

2021 58 28 3.26 -27.6 10-QB 40.5 7.73 12.68 9 12.5 4.47 21.69

2020 60 30.7 1.95 -16.8 5-QB 35.5 6.94 13.21 8 17.9 4.99 18.16

2019 54 27 3.3 -28 8-QB, OC 42.4 7.82 12.87 8 16.1 4.52 19.38

JACKSONVILLE ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 33 1.9 -0.11 2.7 27.7 5.86 13.86 25.8 5.98 16.84

2021 21.5 -9.7 -0.69 8.8 19.7 5.27 17.76 29.4 5.96 13.78

2020 29.5 -4.6 -0.15 -2.7 20.3 5.36 15.89 25 5.51 15.22

2019 16 -14.1 -0.9 11.2 19.6 5.23 19.04 33.7 6.13 12.9

JAMES MADISON
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 47.5 18.6 1.59 -14.1 5 37.7 6.27 12.17 4 20.1 4.68 14.26

2021 45.5 17.2 0.91 -11.1 9-QB 37.8 5.75 10.71 11 22.2 4.83 13.58

2020 34 10.5 0.68 -3.2 N/A 37 6.11 11.02 N/A 26.2 5.01 13.38

2019 Yes 49.5 20 1.36 -16.2 N/A 41.7 6.25 10.76 N/A 21.7 4.88 13.73

203
KANSAS
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 47.5 22 3.48 -23.7 9 QB 41.3 8.52 12.49 8 21.6 5.04 17.72

2021 Yes 30.5 -3.4 -0.01 5.4 8-QB, OC 28.3 6.19 13.73 9, DC 31.7 6.2 13.18

2020 24.5 -8.8 -2.19 16.2 6, OC 20.7 3.96 13.57 5, DC 42.6 6.16 10.01

2019 Yes 35.5 5.2 1.58 -9.5 5, OC 30.8 6.94 14.5 5, DC 26.4 5.36 15.66

KANSAS ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 62 34.7 3.02 -31.0 6, OC 41.7 7.53 12.27 7 8.8 4.51 35.25

2021 51.5 21.5 2.59 -22.8 10-QB 32.5 7.24 12.71 6 12.2 4.65 25.07

2020 44 16.7 0.18 -8.5 3-QB 28.8 5.96 12.43 6, DC 28 5.78 15.02

2019 Yes 51.5 25.3 1.14 -20.8 6-QB, OC 37.1 6.52 11.72 8, DC 12.6 5.38 25.42

KENT ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 36.5 7.7 0.77 -5.5 4 31 6.19 14.43 6, DC 24.5 5.42 16.6

2021 34 3.7 1.11 -6.3 10-QB 34.2 6.83 14.94 9 30.5 5.72 14.48

2020 39.5 9.6 -0.97 4.1 7-QB 37.8 6.55 14.14 6 41.3 7.52 11.89

2019 33 4.6 0.26 -0.5 9-QB 31.2 6.17 13.54 6 27.4 5.91 16.1

KENTUCKY
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 50.5 21.4 1.85 -20.9 6 QB, OC 29.9 6.41 13.29 5 10.3 4.56 27.04

2021 53.5 22.8 2.41 -19.4 7, OC 38.5 7.33 12.48 6 15.7 4.92 19.37

2020 48 18.9 0.46 -6 8-QB 25.7 5.57 13.27 7 20.7 5.11 17.2

2019 53 22.4 2.37 -18.1 6-QB 34.3 7.01 12.98 4, DC 13 4.65 22.12

LA LAFAYETTE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 40.5 11.8 0.54 -7.3 6 30.2 5.56 12.81 5, DC 20.6 5.02 16.74

2021 46.5 17.1 1.35 -13.6 9-QB, OC 32.4 6.25 13.16 11 15.3 4.9 21.55

2020 49 20.7 1.11 -0.2 7-QB 32 6.07 12.73 7, DC 24.4 4.96 14.86

2019 48 22.7 1.92 -19.8 8 37.6 7.25 13.71 7 15.7 5.33 23.1

LA MONROE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 28 -0.9 0.1 -0.7 8 QB, OC 28.5 5.76 12.64 4, DC 30.4 5.66 12.86

2021 Yes 28.5 -3.2 -0.85 3.2 7-QB, OC 25.6 5.01 13.94 10, DC 29.8 5.86 14

2020 13 -19.3 -2.65 23.2 5, OC 14.4 4.59 20.04 8, DC 46.9 7.23 10.46

2019 33.5 1.7 0.64 -2.1 7-QB 33.5 6.87 14.85 8 32.5 6.24 13.84

LIBERTY
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 38.5 10.8 1.07 -17.8 7 31.4 5.92 13.31 4, DC 23.7 4.84 14

2021 43 14.4 1.89 -18.4 11-QB 33.6 6.49 13.29 9 19.2 4.6 15.77

2020 43.5 15.4 -0.04 -1.1 5 31.3 5.84 13.46 4 29 5.88 12.23

2019 Yes 32.5 3.8 0.43 -2.9 8-QB, OC 30.9 6.41 14.1 7, DC 27.9 5.98 15.38

204
LOUISIANA TECH
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 25 -1.8 -0.24 2.6 6, OC 30.2 5.95 13.71 8, DC 33.3 6.19 13.38

2021 29 1.3 0.24 -2.5 6-QB 29.7 5.96 13.87 10 28.4 5.72 14.33

2020 30.5 2.1 -2.04 11.4 6-QB, OC 25.7 4.37 12.01 2, DC 36.7 6.41 12.22

2019 37.5 8.8 0.52 -8.6 6-QB 32.6 6 13.26 5, DC 25.5 5.48 15.74

LOUISVILLE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 52 25.7 2.53 -23.6 7 QB, OC 36.3 7.07 13.25 7 12.2 4.54 24.58

2021 49.5 20 2.72 -17.9 6-QB, OC 38.5 7.77 13.61 6 18.4 5.05 19.15

2020 50.5 20.1 1.28 -6.3 8-QB 31.4 6.87 14.63 8 24.7 5.59 14.46

2019 Yes 44 17 2.31 -16.4 6-QB, OC 41.7 7.82 12.53 10, DC 25.9 5.51 14.95

LSU
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 55 29.5 2.91 -28.4 5, OC 42.2 7.57 12.84 5, DC 13.7 4.67 22.39

2021 50 20.5 1.87 -19.8 9-QB, OC 35.6 6.46 12.69 9, DC 15.2 4.59 20.92

2020 52 21 -0.7 -7.1 3 35 6.01 13.49 5, DC 28.7 6.71 15.87

2019 76 46.9 5.1 -43 8-QB 57.4 9.39 11.63 8 11.3 4.29 25.69

MARSHALL
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 43 14.3 1.35 -12.2 5, OC 26.4 5.69 16.15 6 13.1 4.34 21.26

2021 Yes 43 14.9 1.69 -14.6 9-QB 34.8 6.61 13.97 7, DC 20 4.92 18.85

2020 44 18.4 0.41 -7.7 8-QB 27.7 5.4 13.19 4 22.5 4.99 13.93

2019 37.5 8.1 0.93 -11 8-QB 28.3 6.07 14.62 6, DC 20.9 5.13 16.61

MARYLAND
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 50.5 22 2.39 -18.6 9 QB 36.8 6.81 12.9 7 16.2 4.42 19.6

2021 43 9.4 1.75 -13.1 8-QB, OC 36.1 6.94 14.02 9, DC 26.7 5.19 13.66

2020 41.5 14.8 2.35 1.2 5 31.4 7.26 14.39 5 29.7 4.91 13.16

2019 Yes 36.5 7.7 1.05 -7.7 5-QB, OC 33.7 6.26 11.87 5, DC 27.5 5.21 14.29

MASSACHUSETTS
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 16 -12.8 -1.64 12.6 8 QB, OC 16 4.18 17.32 8, DC 29.8 5.82 11.9

2021 10 -20.2 -1.84 18.3 6-QB, OC 18 5.09 17.66 8 39.3 6.93 11.67

2020 10.5 -24.3 -3.44 36.5 7-QB, OC 9 3.45 20.76 7, DC 46.4 6.89 10.36

2019 Yes 3.5 -31.8 -3.34 24.2 5, OC 21.8 4.32 13.55 3, DC 54.4 7.66 10.15

MEMPHIS
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 43.5 16.8 1.32 -12.7 7 QB, OC 36.1 6.27 12.63 6, DC 20.3 4.95 17.06

2021 43 11.6 1.47 -14.4 7 31.8 6.52 14.7 8 23.2 5.05 16.79

2020 Yes 43 11 -0.14 -0.6 4-QB 27.6 5.92 16.1 8, DC 29.7 6.06 15.64

2019 54 25.9 2.67 -24.1 6-QB, OC 43.8 7.5 11.93 8, DC 18.7 4.83 18.42

205
MIAMI FL
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 41 9.5 0.63 -13.9 7 QB, OC 30.3 5.98 13.58 7, DC 22.2 5.36 15.33

2021 56 23.4 2.38 -24.6 10-QB 39.4 7.12 13.24 9, DC 18.7 4.74 18.27

2020 54 28.2 1.04 -11.3 8, OC 36.1 6.37 12.78 5, DC 21 5.33 18.3

2019 Yes 45.5 19.4 2.22 -20.9 6-QB, OC 34.2 6.5 12.37 6, DC 15.6 4.28 17.81

MIAMI OHIO
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 31 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 9 QB 22.1 4.92 14.09 5, DC 23.4 5.32 15.75

2021 39.5 8.9 1.2 -7.6 8-QB 30 6.6 14.7 10 21.1 5.4 17.05

2020 36.5 8 -0.89 4.2 10-QB 22.2 5.57 15.48 7 27.3 6.46 15.38

2019 34 4.6 0.45 -2.4 5 28.1 5.31 11.64 5 24.3 4.86 14.66

MICHIGAN
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 69 41.6 3.64 -39.8 9 QB, OC 50 7.58 10.44 4, DC 9.3 3.94 26.27

2021 66.5 36.9 3.42 -31.6 8 46.3 7.54 11.36 8, DC 9.4 4.12 29.47

2020 49.5 14.8 1.14 -9.6 5 35.2 6.37 11.62 5 33.5 5.23 12.11

2019 62.5 33.8 3.33 -33.4 8-QB, OC 44.4 7.11 11.02 5 11.4 3.78 21.88

MICHIGAN ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 46.5 17.2 1.71 -16.0 5 QB 35.6 6.65 12.05 9 19.4 4.93 18.29

2021 52.5 23.7 2.92 -22.1 10 40.4 7.79 12.73 7 16.7 4.87 23.45

2020 Yes 41 9 0.7 -0.6 5, OC 26.5 5.43 14.09 2, DC 30.6 4.72 11.63

2019 48 20.2 2.01 -25 9-QB, OC 32.9 6.21 13.4 8 13.6 4.2 19.91

MIDDLE TENN ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 32 5.1 -0.06 -2.8 5 QB, OC 30.3 5.4 13.26 6 26.4 5.45 15.26

2021 36.5 7.8 0.3 -1.6 9, OC 29.9 5.24 12.19 10 23.3 4.94 15.39

2020 27 -7.6 -1.81 13.8 8-QB 21.6 4.71 14.87 5 42.3 6.52 11.4

2019 33.5 3.7 0.9 -5.7 5 31.3 6.75 13.86 6 28.4 5.85 15.28

MINNESOTA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 54 26.6 2.07 -22.3 6 QB 36.1 6.56 12.32 6 11.3 4.49 22.73

2021 51.5 21.8 1.85 -17.6 10-QB 35 6.25 11.84 10 13.1 4.4 19.21

2020 49 17.3 -0.5 -2.6 8-QB, OC 33.2 6.02 12.48 4, DC 29.6 6.52 13.27

2019 55.5 27 2.74 -28 9-QB 43.7 7.27 11.21 7, DC 17.5 4.53 15.87

MISSISSIPPI ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 56 27.9 2.1 -26.1 8 QB 41.1 6.56 11.47 9 14.3 4.46 21.01

2021 51.5 21.2 2.28 -23.1 8-QB 38.4 7 13.68 8 17.2 4.72 16.86

2020 Yes 45.5 16.6 0.49 -2.3 6, OC 25.5 5.49 15.11 5, DC 22 4.99 15.78

2019 49.5 21 2.31 -18.2 7, OC 37.8 7.56 13.04 4 18.1 5.26 18.23

206
MISSOURI
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 47 18.8 2.05 -21.1 6 33.3 6.59 13.24 8, DC 15.5 4.53 18.79

2021 41.5 9.8 1.04 -8.8 8-QB 37.1 6.76 12.85 8, DC 27.5 5.72 14.28

2020 Yes 45.5 15.5 0.36 -4.9 4, OC 30.4 6.06 14.25 7 28 5.7 13.63

2019 51 22.3 1.84 -23.4 7 35.4 6.11 12.25 6 14.3 4.27 19.21

N ILLINOIS
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 28 -1.1 -0.06 -4.4 9 QB 29.4 5.69 13 9 32.4 5.75 11.95

2021 35.5 6.7 0.18 -3.4 8 33.8 6.43 13.36 10 27.3 6.25 15.31

2020 26.5 -3.7 -1.96 15.6 6-QB 19 4.86 18.86 4 35.7 6.81 12.04

2019 Yes 32.5 3.2 -0.13 -4.6 6-QB, OC 26.7 5.58 14.33 7, DC 25 5.71 14.53

NAVY
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 40.5 11 -0.14 -5.9 5 QB, OC 27.5 5.32 13.61 6 17.5 5.46 18.26

2021 37 5.6 -0.51 -7.7 5 26.6 4.89 12.3 8 21.5 5.4 14.75

2020 33.5 -0.1 -1.41 9.3 6 17.1 4.55 16.1 7 30.4 5.96 12.63

2019 51.5 24.3 2.2 -20.2 4-QB 41.6 7.32 12.07 4, DC 18.2 5.12 17.54

NC STATE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 48.5 19.4 0.91 -16.0 7 QB 31.5 5.47 12.25 10 13.5 4.56 21.7

2021 54 26.7 2.54 -23.2 8-QB 38.5 6.95 12.26 10 11.8 4.41 24.96

2020 47 17.7 0.32 -6.7 10-QB 30.3 5.7 13.16 5 27 5.38 15.24

2019 33 3.1 0.63 -9.1 4, OC 25.8 5.73 16.34 7 23.4 5.11 15.57

NEBRASKA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 45.5 12.6 1.59 -11.9 6, OC 33 6.37 12.24 5 21.9 4.78 16.48

2021 51 23.7 3.23 -23.2 7-QB 37.7 7.77 14.27 10 14.3 4.54 21.87

2020 47.5 15.5 1.1 -7.2 9-QB, OC 28.2 6.11 15.27 5, DC 25.8 5.01 13.76

2019 49.5 19.4 2.03 -20.1 7-QB 38.5 6.87 12.89 6 20.6 4.84 16.28

NEVADA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 20 -5 -0.82 8.0 2, OC 25.1 4.7 12.84 4, DC 31.1 5.52 12.01

2021 44.5 17.6 1.37 -11.2 11-QB 40.9 6.5 11.33 11 23.2 5.13 16.31

2020 39 10.7 0.1 0.7 10-QB 27.7 5.94 14.54 7, DC 30.1 5.84 13.73

2019 30.5 -2.5 -0.39 1.6 6 25.7 5.28 15.02 5 29 5.67 12.85

NEW MEXICO
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 19 -5.4 -0.96 6.4 5 18.6 4.16 12.97 7 25 5.12 13.36

2021 20.5 -9.9 -0.96 4.8 8-QB 16.2 4.1 15.33 8 26.6 5.06 12.93

2020 Yes 28.5 0.5 -1.83 16.4 8, OC 25.1 5.26 15.07 4, DC 38.3 7.09 12.16

2019 23.5 -5.7 0.06 2.4 8-QB, OC 25.9 6.28 16.8 2, DC 32.4 6.22 13.89

207
NEW MEXICO ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 28 -1.7 0.32 8.1 4, OC 26 5.46 12.03 9, DC 28.7 5.13 12.28

2021 16 -11.1 -1.6 9.1 1-QB 26.1 5.33 15.11 1 37.4 6.93 12.35

2020 20.5 -10.8 -0.58 14.7 4-QB 23.6 5.59 16.39 6 35.6 6.17 12.61

2019 19.5 -11.2 -0.58 9.8 8-QB, OC 23.6 5.59 16.39 6 35.6 6.17 12.61

NORTH CAROLINA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 47 19.9 2.03 -20.7 5 43.9 7.39 12.49 8, DC 25 5.36 15.4

2021 50 18.6 2.5 -22.6 8-QB 40.4 7.79 13.56 9 22.2 5.29 16.32

2020 59.5 28.1 2.18 -13.5 10-QB 41.6 7.83 13.41 7 26.6 5.65 14.84

2019 Yes 51.5 21.6 2.4 -16.3 7, OC 38.9 7.31 13.83 7, DC 18.1 4.91 18.68

NORTH TEXAS
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 36 8 1.22 -10.3 8 QB 33.4 7.05 14.46 5 26.5 5.83 16.72

2021 36.5 4.3 0.08 0.9 7 28.8 5.62 15.76 10, DC 24.5 5.54 14.97

2020 26.5 -8.4 -1.64 12.3 6 26.1 5.97 17.42 6, DC 47.6 7.61 12.37

2019 30.5 1.2 0.42 -3.7 8-QB, OC 31.7 6.03 13.49 5 31.3 5.62 12.86

NORTHWESTERN
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 36 7 0.86 -9.7 9 QB 26.2 5.55 15.65 5 21 4.69 15.06

2021 32.5 1.5 0 -7.5 4 26.1 5.43 14.18 5, DC 24.6 5.43 15.48

2020 54 30.1 0.53 -10.5 9, OC 28.9 5.04 12.92 9, DC 11.9 4.52 26.7

2019 41.5 10.2 0.59 -9 6 25 4.99 13.99 6 15.6 4.4 18.72

NOTRE DAME
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 56 25.4 2.21 -25.0 7 38.1 6.74 11.66 8, DC 13.9 4.53 20.69

2021 61.5 32.5 2.65 -25.4 3 42.5 7.14 11.4 6, DC 10 4.49 29.53

2020 62 35 1.53 -22.9 7-QB, OC 36.7 6.66 12.99 5, DC 14.8 5.13 21.61

2019 62.5 34.1 3.09 -27.6 7-QB 43.9 7.21 11.3 6 10.6 4.13 27.1

OHIO ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 70 41.4 4.2 -46.6 6 QB 55.1 8.48 10.39 8, DC 14.7 4.29 18.1

2021 70 40.5 4.43 -40.6 7 55.3 9.01 11.54 5 15.1 4.58 21.26

2020 71 42.9 2.63 -30.3 6-QB 49.8 7.74 11.29 4 20.8 5.11 16.15

2019 Yes 80.5 56.5 5.13 -50.1 4 61.1 8.47 10.49 9, DC 5.3 3.34 39.66

OHIO U
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 37 10.5 0.65 -8.4 5 QB 34.7 6.59 12.92 9, DC 25.3 5.94 16.42

2021 30.5 -4.3 0.39 -3.4 9-QB 23.8 6.17 16.09 8 28.1 5.78 14.82

2020 36.5 8.7 -1.52 5.5 7 23.4 5.32 12.95 8 27.8 6.84 17.47

2019 41.5 9.6 0.91 -13.6 4-QB 35.5 6.77 12.62 6, DC 26.7 5.86 14.86

208
OKLAHOMA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 53.5 23.5 2.83 -25.3 5, OC 40.9 7.58 13.97 5, DC 18.7 4.74 20.59

2021 58 27.2 2.84 -29.5 7-QB 43.4 7.8 11.69 8 16.2 4.96 20.8

2020 65.5 36.9 1.96 -20.8 8 43.8 6.87 11.08 8 20 4.92 16.44

2019 66.5 35.7 4.92 -38.3 4 49.9 9.54 12.99 8, DC 15 4.63 19.32

OKLAHOMA ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 47 18.4 1 -18.2 7 QB 37.1 6.08 12.88 4, DC 20.4 5.09 19.1

2021 58 31.3 2.65 -29.5 5-QB 38.3 6.39 12.48 8 7.3 3.74 32.27

2020 55.5 27.3 0.99 -11.6 7-QB, OC 32.6 5.9 13.88 10, DC 19.1 4.92 18.15

2019 51 24.7 2.64 -22.2 7, OC 40.6 7.66 13.6 5 17 5.02 21.26

OLD DOMINION
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 32.5 3.2 0.84 -3.3 10 QB, OC 24.3 6.13 15.3 7 22.1 5.28 18.43

2021 Yes 34.5 3.3 0.25 1.2 6-QB 27.3 5.46 14.44 3 24 5.21 15.2

2020 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

2019 18.5 -8 -1.2 8 4 19 4.24 15.03 5, DC 27.8 5.44 12.79

OLE MISS
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 54.5 28 3.04 -26.5 5, OC 43.2 7.62 13.45 7 16.2 4.58 20.28

2021 57 28.5 3.05 -25 8-QB 43.8 7.8 13.8 10 15.2 4.75 24.25

2020 Yes 50.5 21.4 1.09 -8.6 8-QB, OC 43.9 7.6 13.77 5, DC 35.7 6.5 14.03

2019 49 19.3 2.2 -20.9 3, OC 35 7.19 15.25 10, DC 16.5 4.99 21.6

OREGON
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 57.5 29.2 2.96 -31.2 7, OC 45 8.11 13.19 7, DC 16.7 5.15 20.17

2021 52 22 2.75 -27.8 10 40.1 7.32 12.26 7, DC 18.1 4.57 17.81

2020 57 26.3 1.98 -15.9 3, OC 35.8 7.18 12.78 5, DC 22.6 5.2 17.09

2019 66 39.2 3.65 -34.2 10-QB 44.8 7.74 12.03 7, DC 6.4 4.09 44.01

OREGON ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 57 29.2 2.57 -24.0 6 QB 38.4 7.18 12.18 9, DC 11.5 4.6 25.95

2021 47.5 20.1 2.22 -15.6 9-QB 40.3 7.35 12.18 9 20.2 5.13 17.11

2020 44 16.8 0.16 -3.4 5 32.1 6.25 13.67 9 29 6.08 14.31

2019 46 16.8 1.82 -16.2 7-QB 39.5 7.05 12.37 9 23.5 5.23 16.42

PENN ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 63 35.4 3.12 -29.0 7 QB 45.3 7.11 11.22 4 10.9 4 25.24

2021 55.5 27.4 2.36 -25.6 8-QB, OC 36.4 6.36 12.54 7 9.3 4 31.85

2020 55 21.8 1.04 -11.4 8-QB, OC 34.3 5.81 13.35 4, DC 25.6 4.77 12.12

2019 61.5 37.6 2.9 -34.3 6 43.9 6.97 10.75 6 7.3 4.07 39.19

209
PITTSBURGH
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 51 21.1 2.15 -18.8 7, OC 37.9 6.61 11.96 7 18.1 4.46 15.9

2021 58.5 29.9 2.43 -26 8-QB 45.9 7.09 12.05 6 16 4.66 19.97

2020 50.5 21.8 0.64 -6.3 8-QB 30.7 5.34 12.86 7 22 4.71 14.89

2019 45 13 1.86 -19.8 5-QB, OC 26.9 5.8 15.91 6 14.7 3.94 18.32

PURDUE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 49.5 21.5 1.69 -21.6 7 QB 40.1 6.49 12.09 7, DC 19.9 4.8 15.27

2021 51.5 24.1 2.12 -19.1 9-QB 37.7 6.82 13.36 8, DC 13.6 4.7 21.66

2020 45.5 16.2 0.87 -8.3 9-QB 33.5 6.01 12.28 8 30.4 5.13 12.49

2019 46 15.7 1.3 -16.2 3 36.8 6.5 12.7 9 24 5.2 15.67

RICE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 28 -0.4 0.09 0.4 7 QB 25.8 5.97 15.26 7 27.7 5.88 12.84

2021 25 -7.6 -0.6 4.8 9, OC 22.5 5.69 17.24 10 30.2 6.29 13.58

2020 34 10.6 -1.54 13.7 7 20.1 4.53 15.75 10 22.6 6.07 16.13

2019 27.5 0 -0.59 6.3 6 21.6 5.01 14.54 6 22.4 5.6 15.93

RUTGERS
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 34 4.8 0.66 -10.6 6 QB 27 5.16 12.17 6, DC 23.2 4.49 13.1

2021 36 10.2 -0.03 -8.1 11-QB 29.3 5.22 12.35 9 19.1 5.25 18.15

2020 Yes 40.5 15.4 -0.54 1.8 8-QB, OC 31 4.96 11.63 8, DC 28.7 5.5 14.67

2019 28.5 -4 -0.04 3.5 8-QB 22.2 5.32 14.68 5 27.6 5.35 13.5

S ALABAMA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 43.5 15.6 1.2 -14.4 8 33.1 5.93 13.02 8 18.5 4.73 16.2

2021 Yes 32 2.4 0.13 -2.9 7-QB, OC 26.3 5.38 14.4 9, DC 24.7 5.25 13.94

2020 27.5 0 -1.85 11.6 8-QB 16.6 4.93 20.7 6 29.7 6.78 15.45

2019 23.5 -5.4 -0.22 8.8 8 19.1 5.3 18.27 5 25.3 5.52 15.4

SAM HOUSTON ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 19.5 -12.3 -1.17 5.0 12.8 4.31 23.76 25.1 5.48 15.27

2021 35.5 10.7 0.4 -6.8 36.3 5.98 12.18 25.6 5.58 15.37

2020 34 4.7 0.47 -4.7 27.4 5.25 13.54 22.7 4.76 14.88

2019 23.5 -5.3 -0.62 4.2 19.8 4.58 18.61 25.1 5.2 15.99

SAN DIEGO ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 37.5 6.3 0.45 -5.7 4 24.5 5.43 13.62 7 19.2 4.98 16.82

2021 41 12.2 0.86 -13.8 9 29.5 5.29 11.85 8 17.5 4.43 17.46

2020 Yes 43.5 15.1 0.24 0.3 6-QB, OC 23.5 4.82 14.3 8, DC 21.5 4.58 13.83

2019 41.5 12.9 0.48 -11.6 7-QB 21.5 4.88 16.2 5 9.4 4.4 29.1

210
SAN JOSE ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 34.5 8.4 0.59 -6.9 6 29.8 5.58 11.99 8 22.4 4.99 14.86

2021 34.5 0.2 0.74 -10.2 9-QB 21.6 5.66 16.47 11 23.4 4.92 15.22

2020 45 21 1.45 0.8 6 30.9 6.51 13.72 7 23 5.06 15.38

2019 35.5 5.2 1.26 -6.7 7-QB 33.2 6.75 13.65 6 28.8 5.49 14.61

SMU
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 44.5 16.1 1.45 -19.5 6 QB, OC 40.7 6.97 13.11 7, DC 25.9 5.52 15.62

2021 45.5 18.3 1.32 -18.9 8 40.7 6.8 12.4 9, DC 22.4 5.48 17.21

2020 44.5 15.4 0.22 -8.9 7-QB, OC 35.1 6.27 13.45 6, DC 32.8 6.04 13.8

2019 48 21.2 1.52 -19.1 7 45 6.79 11.99 9 24.6 5.28 16.49

SOUTH CAROLINA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 49 20.6 2.14 -17.0 8 38.7 7 11.49 5 19 4.87 18.03

2021 Yes 42.5 13.1 1.02 -15.6 8, OC 29.5 5.89 12.65 5, DC 17.5 4.87 17.91

2020 38.5 9.2 -0.29 2.6 7-QB, OC 27.2 5.8 14.16 6, DC 31.1 6.09 13.47

2019 49 21.2 1.99 -21.2 7-QB 35.8 6.55 13.16 7 16.1 4.57 20.14

SOUTH FLORIDA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 30.5 1 0.31 1.7 10 QB, OC 32 6.94 13.89 9, DC 32.5 6.64 14.22

2021 30.5 1.5 -0.55 -3 9 28.7 5.69 13.92 8 27.2 6.24 15.45

2020 Yes 30.5 -1.9 -0.81 11.8 7-QB, OC 23.8 5.14 15.61 7, DC 38.8 5.96 11.19

2019 34 4.9 0.84 -6.7 9-QB, OC 25.4 5.72 14.5 6 22.3 4.89 16.22

SOUTHERN MISS
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 35 6.7 0.33 -2.8 9 QB, OC 27.1 5.44 12.86 7 21.4 5.1 16.4

2021 Yes 26 -6.1 -1.25 10 8, OC 18.8 4.37 14.59 10, DC 26 5.62 13.4

2020 28 -5.2 -1.17 17.8 7-QB, OC 21.9 5.25 15.39 4, DC 40.5 6.42 11.05

2019 37.5 9.2 1.12 -11.6 10-QB, OC 30.9 6.5 14.11 6 22.7 5.38 14.54

STANFORD
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 36.5 9.1 0.8 -10.0 10 QB 28.9 6.38 15.18 7 20.8 5.59 17.76

2021 36.5 6.9 0.75 -10 7 30 6.3 12.19 8 23.6 5.55 16.35

2020 49.5 18.7 0.31 -1.7 8-QB 32.9 6.46 13.71 6 27.4 6.15 14.98

2019 44 14.7 1.46 -17.8 4-QB 31.1 6.8 14.42 5 19.3 5.34 18.89

SYRACUSE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 45 19.5 2.36 -18.6 9 QB, OC 36 6.8 11.45 8 18 4.44 16.88

2021 42 12 1.91 -16.3 9-QB 32.1 6.45 13.02 9 20.2 4.54 14.56

2020 35.5 7.9 -0.6 9.5 7-QB, OC 20.9 4.81 13.7 4, DC 27.2 5.41 15.84

2019 41.5 10.6 0.4 -8.4 6 33.5 5.86 13.24 7 23.7 5.46 17.64

211
TCU
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 61.5 35.2 3.66 -32.3 9, OC 46.8 8.28 12.22 8, DC 12.7 4.61 25.88

2021 41 10.1 1.52 -18.3 9-QB, OC 35.9 7.78 14.13 8 25.8 6.26 15.54

2020 52.5 24.5 1.16 -8.1 5 32.4 6.27 13.23 7 21 5.11 16

2019 49.5 21.6 1.82 -24.8 7 36.8 6.38 13.07 5 16 4.56 18.28

TEMPLE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 30 -0.1 0.23 0.8 7 QB, OC 24.9 5.56 14.94 7, DC 26 5.33 14.24

2021 17.5 -16 -0.36 8.7 7 18.6 4.97 16.1 6 34.9 5.33 10.87

2020 29 -2.7 -1.78 12.2 7-QB 16.9 4.64 20.62 4 34.3 6.42 12.64

2019 Yes 40 10.3 1.22 -8.6 7-QB, OC 29 5.74 14.62 7, DC 19.4 4.52 17.85

TENNESSEE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 67.5 41.7 3.94 -35.4 8 QB 55.6 8.62 11.36 7 15.3 4.68 22.7

2021 Yes 54 25.5 2.84 -24.9 4, OC 45.2 7.46 11.65 7, DC 19.7 4.62 18.13

2020 46 16.1 0.54 -2.9 9-QB 27.3 5.83 14.09 8 24.3 5.29 15.2

2019 52.5 21.1 2.58 -23.2 10-QB, OC 34.7 6.93 12.49 6, DC 14.4 4.34 20.13

TEXAS
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 63 36.9 3.69 -31.8 7 43.5 7.81 12.13 7 8.6 4.12 35.56

2021 Yes 49 21.3 2.33 -21.2 8, OC 43.1 7.55 11.72 6, DC 21.7 5.22 16.94

2020 59 30.8 1.56 -12.2 7-QB, OC 44.8 6.62 10.78 9, DC 27.4 5.06 14.13

2019 53.5 26.4 2.32 -24.4 5-QB 43.5 7.63 13.07 3 17.9 5.31 21.22

TEXAS A&M
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 49 18.5 2.16 -16.7 5 30.5 6.69 13.84 5, DC 13.3 4.52 24.07

2021 56.5 26.8 2.59 -26.6 5 35.5 6.76 12.47 9 9.5 4.17 30.8

2020 62.5 31.5 1.8 -20 8-QB 35 6.85 13.41 9 16.6 5.05 17.82

2019 55.5 26.7 2.54 -28.6 7-QB 39.4 7.01 12.17 4 13.5 4.47 21.61

TEXAS ST UNIV
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 27.5 -1 -0.28 -1.8 9, OC 23.1 4.85 14.45 5 25.1 5.13 13.99

2021 26.5 -4.8 -0.4 2.2 8-QB 24.6 5.17 14.54 8 29.8 5.57 13.87

2020 27.5 0.1 -0.87 13.4 8-QB, OC 27.2 5.59 13.32 4, DC 40.2 6.45 12.57

2019 Yes 24.5 -4.7 0.1 3.4 9-QB, OC 20.4 5.39 16.89 10, DC 25.9 5.29 14.89

TEXAS TECH
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 52 23.7 1.53 -18.2 6 QB, OC 40.4 6.52 13.55 6, DC 18.8 5 19.02

2021 46.5 14 2.3 -15.8 7, OC 36 7.56 13.11 8 23.5 5.26 15.38

2020 41.5 9.7 0.55 -3.4 6-QB 29.9 6.07 14.93 8 33.3 5.52 12.88

2019 Yes 45 19.4 1.46 -19.1 7-QB, OC 37.5 7.19 14.94 6, DC 20.4 5.73 20.39

212
TOLEDO
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 40 9.2 1.03 -10.6 7 QB 33.2 5.71 12.4 8 25.2 4.68 13

2021 44.5 14.7 1.92 -11.3 11-QB 33.7 6.71 13.11 11 19 4.79 17.78

2020 39.5 12.1 -0.15 -0.3 7-QB, OC 25.8 5.82 17.33 7, DC 26.8 5.97 15.05

2019 30 1.5 -0.09 -4.9 6-QB 29 6.31 15.51 5 30.1 6.4 15.28

TROY
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 45 15.5 1.76 -11.4 9 QB, OC 29.6 6.21 13.42 9, DC 15.1 4.45 20.43

2021 30.5 1.1 0.49 -6.3 10-QB, OC 25.7 5.37 13.68 11 24.6 4.88 13.18

2020 37 8.1 -0.68 7.7 7 23.9 5.2 15.5 6 29.1 5.88 14.82

2019 Yes 32.5 1.3 0.11 -7.1 7-QB, OC 33.7 6.22 13.71 6, DC 33.3 6.12 12.89

TULANE
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 52.5 24.6 2.43 -18.2 9 QB, OC 37.8 6.9 12.41 9 14.7 4.47 21.68

2021 38.5 6.4 1.18 -6.2 10-QB, OC 32.2 6.38 13.56 7, DC 26.2 5.2 14.71

2020 46 18.6 -0.16 -2.4 5 33.8 5.56 11.46 7 28.3 5.72 15.18

2019 44.5 17.4 1.83 -17.9 5-QB, OC 36.7 6.86 13.73 8 20.1 5.03 17.15

TULSA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 38.5 9.1 1.11 -8.0 6 QB 33.7 6.47 13.49 6, DC 25.7 5.36 14.72

2021 43 10.3 1.88 -11.8 9 30.3 6.8 16.07 10 20 4.92 17.2

2020 48.5 23 1.25 -5.7 9-QB 27.3 5.82 15.3 4 17.5 4.57 18.91

2019 40.5 11.3 1.19 -8.4 6-QB 32.1 6.17 15.18 8, DC 21.6 4.98 16.01

TX-SAN ANTONIO
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 45.5 16.4 1.08 -13.2 8 QB, OC 37.8 6.69 13.24 5 22.4 5.62 17.54

2021 43.5 16.8 0.83 -14.9 10-QB 38.1 6.26 11.89 11, DC 21.3 5.43 16.61

2020 Yes 33.5 6.7 -0.78 13.8 8-QB, OC 23.8 5.24 16.07 5, DC 30.2 6.02 13.16

2019 22 -7.8 -0.98 10 8-QB, OC 23.2 5.28 15.51 5 32.3 6.26 12.75

UAB
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 42.5 12.5 1.79 -13.6 6 QB 30.2 7.02 15.17 8 19.1 5.23 18.62

2021 44.5 14 2.13 -12.1 8-QB 32.8 6.73 12.52 9 19.2 4.6 15.84

2020 43.5 14.7 0.63 -1.6 9-QB 28.1 5.62 13.56 9 27.1 5 12.19

2019 34 0.9 0.66 -6.3 4-QB 24.1 5.38 14.27 4 24.3 4.72 12.45

UCF
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 47.5 22 1.62 -22.4 9 QB, OC 38.4 6.87 13.68 8 17.8 5.25 19.82

2021 Yes 45 14.3 1.48 -16.5 8-QB, OC 33 6.33 12.62 7, DC 21.7 4.85 16.34

2020 54.5 26.4 0.91 -12.2 8-QB, OC 43 6.83 13.61 8, DC 29.7 5.92 15.96

2019 54.5 27.9 3 -26.4 8-QB 46.8 7.26 12.14 5 19.7 4.27 16.54

213
UCLA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 53 22.7 2.52 -26.2 6 QB, OC 42.8 7.73 13.14 2, DC 21 5.2 17.35

2021 55 23.9 2.27 -20.8 10-QB 44.7 7.13 11.35 10 21.1 4.86 16.13

2020 51 26 1.42 -11.6 7-QB 38.6 6.54 12.56 6 26.9 5.13 14.36

2019 42.5 12.9 0.8 -24 9-QB, OC 37.2 6.48 13.32 10 25.4 5.69 15.25

UNLV
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 30 3.8 0.58 -4.5 6 QB, OC 31.4 5.85 11.83 6, DC 29 5.27 12.71

2021 29 -0.5 0.23 1.3 6 26.3 5.78 13.28 10 26.8 5.55 13.79

2020 Yes 18.5 -11.2 -2.8 20.5 8-QB, OC 18.8 4.58 17.09 4, DC 43.1 7.38 11.53

2019 29 -0.3 -0.09 0.9 8-QB 28.5 5.78 14.07 5 30 5.87 13.83

USC
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 58.5 31.1 3.05 -32.0 7, OC 48 8.5 12.33 3, DC 17.8 5.46 20.15

2021 42 13.7 1.41 -15 8-QB 37.8 6.96 13.79 8 24.4 5.55 14.54

2020 56.5 26.9 0.71 -12.6 8-QB 34.7 5.91 12.75 9, DC 20.8 5.19 16.78

2019 55.5 26.4 3.19 -20.1 6-QB, OC 44.3 8.05 12.72 5 19 4.87 18.51

UTAH
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 63 35.4 2.73 -27.1 8 QB 44.8 7.68 12.15 6 10.8 4.95 26.65

2021 60.5 28.5 2.91 -25.4 9 42.5 7.24 11.51 9 14 4.33 20.08

2020 53 21.8 0.87 -10.5 7 31.3 6.15 13.63 2 22.6 5.28 15.51

2019 65 36.2 3.88 -36.8 7-QB, OC 41.2 7.77 12.36 7 5.8 3.89 39.18

UTAH ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 33 0.6 -0.28 -3.5 7 QB 29.3 5.17 13.12 5 30.5 5.45 12.33

2021 Yes 41.5 13.5 0.76 -8.2 8, OC 37.9 6.24 12.57 8, DC 24.4 5.48 15.24

2020 21.5 -11.2 -2.42 20.2 8, OC 15.6 4.4 16.99 5, DC 39.9 6.82 12.66

2019 Yes 39 10.6 1.3 -10 2-QB, OC 34.1 6.37 13.79 7, DC 24.2 5.06 16.24

UTEP
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 32 1.3 -0.22 -0.6 7 QB 24.4 5.5 15.81 8 24.5 5.72 14.04

2021 31 0.3 0.78 -5.3 11-QB, OC 24.9 5.92 15.7 8, DC 24.6 5.14 13.79

2020 20.5 -7.3 -2.21 20.3 5 15.5 4.66 20.24 5 35.9 6.87 11.93

2019 14.5 -15.3 -1.59 10.8 7-QB 19 5.15 17.32 4 35.1 6.74 12.24

VANDERBILT
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 37.5 9.4 0.52 -13.0 7 QB, OC 33.2 6.42 12.73 7, DC 25.2 5.9 15.52

2021 Yes 28 -5.3 -0.72 3 8-QB, OC 22.2 5.24 16.27 6, DC 28 5.96 14.42

2020 28 -1.9 -1.76 10 5-QB, OC 17.5 5.06 20.2 11, DC 32.6 6.82 14.04

2019 35.5 4.3 0.13 -7.2 7, OC 28.2 5.75 12.63 5 24.8 5.62 15.08

214
VIRGINIA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 38.4 7.1 1.38 -8.9 4 QB, OC 25.3 5.81 15.49 6, DC 19.2 4.44 16.66

2021 46.5 18 2.22 -21.7 8-QB 40 8.03 14.91 7 22.3 5.81 18.35

2020 46 19.2 -0.18 -6.7 7 31 5.94 14.27 8 24.9 6.12 17.01

2019 49.5 20.8 1.5 -17.7 6-QB 40.1 6.45 11.13 8 20.1 4.96 15.84

VIRGINIA TECH
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 37 5.9 0.27 -7.5 4, OC 25.3 5.21 13.75 7, DC 20.4 4.94 16.6

2021 45 15.9 1.56 -12.2 7 30.6 6.54 13.92 6 14.7 4.98 23.18

2020 50 21.3 1.41 -10.5 8-QB 33.4 7.18 14.24 9, DC 26.1 5.77 15.94

2019 50.5 17.3 1.36 -15.9 6-QB 36.1 6.17 11.79 10 19.7 4.81 16.93

W KENTUCKY
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 44 17.5 1.79 -15.0 4, OC 36.7 6.84 13.68 7, DC 20.2 5.05 18.14

2021 47.5 18.5 2.1 -15.5 6-QB, OC 43.4 7.36 12.69 5 24.9 5.26 16.35

2020 32 2.2 -0.87 12.3 7 19.1 4.36 14.52 9 30 5.24 11.77

2019 Yes 39.5 11.1 0.73 -10.2 10-QB, OC 28.2 5.8 14.04 6 18.2 5.07 17.83

W MICHIGAN
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 29 -0.6 -0.63 4.5 4 20.6 4.64 14.92 7 22.4 5.27 15.05

2021 41 10.4 1.23 -12.2 9-QB, OC 33.5 6.73 14.94 10 23.1 5.5 13.6

2020 39 9.8 0.51 -1.6 5 33.4 6.7 13.13 6 36.7 6.19 12.05

2019 40 11.5 0.92 -11.1 7-QB 34 6.62 13.78 10 23.3 5.71 17.4

WAKE FOREST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 51 21.2 1.45 -21.0 7 QB 43.7 6.67 11.54 6, DC 23.8 5.22 15.53

2021 51.5 23.9 1.54 -23.2 11-QB 45.8 6.86 11.63 8 21.9 5.32 17.31

2020 48 22.1 0.06 -8.9 3-QB 36.5 5.97 12.33 8 27.5 5.91 16.12

2019 43.5 17.4 1.41 -20.2 7-QB 38.9 6.54 13.8 5 22.3 5.13 16.42

WASHINGTON
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 Yes 55.5 26.2 2.75 -21.3 8 QB, OC 43.9 7.78 13.17 5, DC 18.7 5.03 17.92

2021 42 13.1 1.31 -15.3 10-QB 29 5.74 12.85 8 15.9 4.43 18.73

2020 Yes 50 18.2 0.69 -12.1 4, OC 29.5 6.04 13.68 6 24.3 5.34 14.23

2019 57.5 29 2.51 -28.6 7 38.9 6.97 12.02 2 10.7 4.46 28.8

WASHINGTON ST
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 48.5 22 1.51 -19.1 4, OC 34.2 6.52 12.82 6, DC 13.2 5.01 26.11

2021 48.5 17.4 1.74 -13.4 8-QB 34.7 6.73 12.74 10 17.8 4.99 19.08

2020 Yes 43.5 13.6 0.47 -3.3 6, OC 31.6 6.53 13.52 8, DC 31.2 6.07 13.43

2019 50.5 21.6 1.98 -23.5 7 46 8.07 12.73 6 25.2 6.09 16.2

215
WEST VIRGINIA
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 45.5 17.2 1.46 -14.4 7, OC 38.8 6.61 12.37 4 22.7 5.16 15.56

2021 46 16 1.33 -18.4 9-QB 32.5 6.26 13.5 7, DC 16.4 4.93 18.89

2020 50 20.1 0.81 -12.3 8-QB, OC 26.7 5.55 15.93 6, DC 19.7 4.74 15.02

2019 Yes 45 12.4 1.33 -9.8 3, OC 29.6 5.98 13.27 6 18 4.65 18.84

WISCONSIN
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 50.5 22.8 2.54 -24.1 5 QB, OC 38.3 6.73 11.07 3 16.5 4.2 16.18

2021 57 27.6 3.13 -28.6 7-QB 37.1 6.7 12.17 8 9.6 3.57 21.54

2020 56 28.5 0.99 -19.1 6-QB 28.8 5.41 13.49 9 13.4 4.42 18.31

2019 65.5 40.5 3.87 -34.4 6 46.5 7.93 11.69 6 6.7 4.07 36.54

WYOMING
Season New HC? SM PR Eff Strg EffYPP+/- SM BR O RS-NEW? EffOffPPG EffOffYPP EffOffYPPT D RS-NEW? EffDefPPG EffDefYPP EffDefYPPT

2022 32 2.8 0.32 -4.8 4, OC 25.1 5.47 13.09 4 23.5 5.15 15.13

2021 37 5.1 0.92 -9.9 10-QB, OC 26.5 5.82 14.21 11 21.3 4.9 15.6

2020 41.5 11.7 -0.27 1.6 7 22.3 5.07 15.49 5, DC 25.8 5.35 13.8

2019 42.5 14.8 0.93 -11.9 5-QB 28.3 5.65 12.6 6 15.5 4.72 22.31

216