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To cite this Article Flint, Colin, Adduci, Michael, Chen, Michael and Chi, Sang-Hyun(2009) 'Mapping the Dynamism of
the United States' Geopolitical Code: The Geography of the State of the Union Speeches, 1988-2008', Geopolitics, 14: 4,
604 — 629
To link to this Article: DOI: 10.1080/14650040802693929
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14650040802693929
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Geopolitics, 14:604–629, 2009
Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN: 1465-0045 print / 1557-3028 online
DOI: 10.1080/14650040802693929
INTRODUCTION
604
Geography of the State of the Union Speeches 605
drove most of the geographic references, and the role of regional powers
was evident, though mention of South America was largely absent in the
speeches.12 Interestingly, they explain the absence of a regional pattern
through the “idiosyncratic” predilections of the presidents.13 We acknowl-
edge the role of individual perspectives and agendas in the speeches, but
also consider the constraints of global geopolitical dynamics. O’Loughlin
and Grant claimed that at the time of their analysis no other geographic
study of the State of the Union speeches had been undertaken. To the
best of our knowledge, no follow-up analysis other than our own has
been conducted since.
The State of the Union speech is not performed in a geopolitical
vacuum. The representations adopted in the speech are a reflection of the
need to respond to the practices, and to some degree representations, of
other countries. The practices of other states, sometimes themselves
reactions to the acts of the United States, provide the context in which the
foreign policy initiatives mentioned in the State of the Union speech, and
how they are represented, are formulated. In addition, domestic influ-
ences of changing political ideology, political party competition, and the
influence of the military also play a part in defining the content of the
speeches.14 The representations in the speech reflect on the role of
multiple existing discourses and, consequently, the president as multiple
subject.15
The presidential State of the Union speeches is a geopolitical act that
may be analysed to explore the geopolitical foci of the United States. It is a
combination of practice and representation within a broader context of
global geopolitical events and dynamics. Moreover, its annual occurrence
means that it can be analysed over time to identify broad trends in US
geopolitical imperatives.
Geography of the State of the Union Speeches 607
The end of the Cold War geopolitical world order was marked by the
collapse of the Soviet Union, the re-emergence of independent states in
Central and East Europe, and the very questioning of the role of NATO, and
the meaning of ‘Europe.’ The changing global context required a full-scale
reassessment of US foreign policy imperatives. In such a situation, the
established content of the foreign policy of the United States was open for
renegotiation like no other period since George Kennan’s long telegram and
NSC-68 had established the practices and language of containment and
global presence, the twin stanchions of the US Cold War practice and
rhetoric. Of course, the specific form of actions and language was contested
and changed from administration to administration, as O’Loughlin and
Grant’s analysis showed. However, the depiction of the Soviet Union as the
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This seemingly simple framework is in fact the basis for the complexity of
global geopolitics. The calculations are dynamic and entail constant recon-
sideration by the foreign policy elites of states: Hence, the expectation of
changing regional patterns in the focus of presidential State of the Union
speeches. Furthermore, the construction of a geopolitical code is the
product of changing relations between states and other geopolitical actors.
Hence, the specifics of the codes are partially the result of the actions of
other actors.
Geography of the State of the Union Speeches 609
Noblesse Oblige Bush Senior; Clinton first term Globalist None expected
US first None Regionalist None expected
Declinist Clinton second term Regionalist None expected
Contingency Clinton first term Regionalist None expected
Eagle triumphant Bush Senior Globalist None expected
World of Regions Bush Senior Regionalist Europe, Middle East
and North-East Asia
Anti-imperialism Bush Senior and Junior Regionalist Europe, Middle East
and North-East Asia
610 Colin Flint et al.
and within some, and can lead to expectations in the pattern of geographic
foci within the speeches of particular presidencies. They also provide
expectations of globalist or regionalist tendencies in particular administrations.
Finally, where the regionalist and anti-imperialist paradigms come into play
we would expect to see emphasis upon the three key regions. In addition
to these empirical expectations the use of paradigms, and especially their
intra-administration changes, is a bridge between the macro-theoretical
understandings of the interactions between discourse and practice, and
events and representations, and the specificities of the empirical findings. In
other words, paradigms are a combination of world views, changing
geopolitical contexts and the representational and material strategies of the
commander-in-chief.
METHODOLOGY
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The analysis covers the period 1988–2008; the last year of Ronald Reagan’s
presidency, and the administrations of George H. W. Bush, William Clinton,
and George W. Bush. We began with the State of the Union speech of 1988
for two reasons: It provides a continuation from the O’Loughlin and Grant
study that concluded with 1987, and it provides a benchmark year of a
presidency firmly attached to the Cold War geopolitical code before the
subsequent years of dynamism that we focus upon.24 The texts of the
speeches were downloaded from the website of The American Presidency
project housed at University of California Santa Barbara between August
2007 and March 2008.25
The texts were coded for word content. To ensure accuracy and consis-
tency the project began by coding speeches analysed and discussed in detail
by O’Loughlin and Grant.26 When the two researchers responsible for coding
gained the same results as O’Loughlin and Grant and each other the initial
coding of the 1988 speeches began. Three speeches were chosen at random
and the researchers coded them individually. The same results were obtained
by both researchers giving a high level of confidence that coding bias had
been eliminated through this process of defining and learning coding proto-
cols. One researcher coded speeches given in odd years (1991, 1993, etc.)
and the other even years. The coding for all years was then checked by a
third researcher to ensure consistency and accuracy. The State of the Union
speech has been a venue for a statesman t o talk about inter-state politics. In
the speeches analysed, the presence of non-government organisations was
marginal, but not completely absent. For example, George W. Bush mentioned
NGOs with regard to AIDS programmes. However, seeing as such references
were still choices by the president to represent either a country’s geopolitical
importance or US engagement with that country they were coded no
differently to other country specific references.
Geography of the State of the Union Speeches 611
foreign policy in general. The proportions and ratios were calculated and
graphed using an Excel spreadsheet, the word counts for each country were
mapped using Arc/GIS software.
The first questions posed focused upon the degree of emphasis placed
upon foreign policy in the State of the Union speeches. Each year the
president and his speechwriters make a strategic political decision regarding
the specific content of the speech, and the political capital that may be gained
from this scripted and prominent event. There is no formula regarding the
speeches’ content, and so the amount of time spent on foreign policy is a
matter of choice, especially as conventional wisdom rests on the assumption
that the US electorate has little interest in international affairs.27
Compared to subsequent aspects of the speeches we analysed it is hard
to discern a clear pattern in the relative emphasis upon foreign policy,
measured by the percentage of words of each speech devoted to foreign
policy (Figure 1). The variation from year to year is greater than across
Presidential terms, though there is some evidence that there is a trend of
increasing foreign policy emphasis. This is particularly the case if President
George H. W. Bush’s single year emphasis on the first Gulf War is discounted.
There is also a suggestion of the increased attention to foreign issues paid by
President Clinton across his terms. In the case of George W. Bush the immediate
impact of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 is clear, but so is the
subsequent reassertion of domestic concerns until the need to acknowledge
and address the insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq. In summary, there
seems to be no connection between the emphasis upon foreign policy in a
particular speech and the amount of foreign policy focus in previous
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Percentage
35
30
25
20
612
15
10
Years
0
Reagan_1988 Bush_1990 Bush_1992 Clinton_1994 Clinton_1996 Clinton_1998 Clinton_2000 Bush_2002 Bush_2004 Bush_2006 Bush_2008
speeches. For this one measure, the ability of a President to create their
own discourse does not appear constrained by previous speeches.
The annual pattern evident in Figure 1 would also suggest that events
drive the content of the speeches rather than the aims and agency of the
administrations. However, certain choices in foreign policy are evident
when the geographic foci of the different terms are analysed. A broad
difference in the definition of a geopolitical code is the contrast between a
globalist and regionalist perspective. The former reflects a geopolitical code
that sees all parts of the globe as equally important and does not discern
between regional contexts. The regionalist approach specifies particular
parts of the globe as more important, as either threats or allies, to the US. In
other words, the US geopolitical code is targeted towards particular regions at
particular times. This distinction was measured by creating the percentage of
all words regarding foreign policy that made reference to a specific region
of the world (Figure 2).
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The broad pattern in the data can be summarised as “like father like
son.” The two Bush administrations made much more reference to specific
regions. On the other hand, the speeches made by President Clinton made
much greater reference to an undifferentiated foreign policy. These patterns
are of interest given the rhetoric of the different presidents in question.
President George H. W. Bush faced the collapse of the Soviet Union and the
related geopolitical transition. The term “New World Order” that he used to
describe the emergent geopolitical situation implied a global perspective
and a leading role for the United States. However, the language used in his
State of the Union speeches remained centred upon particular parts of the
world. President George H. W. Bush believed the New World Order
required geopolitical rhetoric that focused upon particular regions. The role
of the first Gulf War is relevant in explaining this language: a very territorial
battle over borders, sovereignty, and access to resources was seen as a
vehicle for the US to assert its geopolitical authority and re-shape the world
in a renewed bout of ‘Eagle triumphant’ authority. However, the basis was
conflict and cooperation in particular regions and with particular countries.
These results support analyses of the performative nature of geopolitics, in
which global projects such as the “New World Order” are grounded and
framed within descriptions of particular countries.28 In other words, the
grand geopolitical scheme of President George H. W. Bush required the
mention of specific countries rather than an abstract reference to the globe
or international politics.
The same general pattern can be seen during the two terms of President
George W. Bush. The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 were the
catalyst for a foreign policy agenda that was also about constructing a new
world.29 The rhetoric of the Global War on Terror portrayed the increasingly
militaristic foreign policy of the US as a project of democratisation and
development, a combination of ‘Noblesse oblige’ and ‘Eagle triumphant’
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614
4
0 Years
Reagan_1988 Bush_1990 Bush_1992 Clinton_1994 Clinton_1996 Clinton_1998 Clinton_2000 Bush_2002 Bush_2004 Bush_2006 Bush_2008
FIGURE 2 Ratio of words pertaining to a specific region: total words dedicated to foreign policy.
Geography of the State of the Union Speeches 615
spoke about regions and countries that were not addressed by Presidents
Reagan and George H. W. Bush. However, the analysis suggests that the
preference was to frame foreign policy in globalist terms. One explanation
for this difference between President Clinton’s speeches and those that
preceded and followed them is the difference between an idealist and
realist approach. As the endgame of the First Gulf War and the content of
the Powell Doctrine make clear, President George H. W. Bush advocated a
circumscribed foreign policy. President George W. Bush viewed the world
as a realist arena of friends and foes, as evident in the much quoted “with us
or against us” speech. Such a world view required the actual identification of
countries that required geopolitical engagement. Partially, the foreign policy
philosophy of President Clinton was based upon a perception of the United
States as a force for global peace, the Noblesse oblige paradigm, which
required focus on particular conflicts, such as Northern Ireland and Israel-
Palestine amongst others, but was wrapped in an ideal of peace through
US-led global institutions.
The relative emphasis upon globalist or regionalist rhetoric across the
presidential terms does not necessarily translate into less mention of spe-
cific countries by President Clinton.30 What it does mean is that the men-
tion of specific regions and countries by President Clinton was framed
within globalist rhetoric, while both the presidents Bush eschewed such
language and focused upon the countries in question. Though such a pat-
tern does contradict expectations given the global reach of the “New
World Order” and the “Global War on Terror”, it does suggest that the
geopolitical practices during these two administrations had to be justified
by the construction of the perceived threat posed by particular countries:
Hence, the tentative conclusion of the underlying role of a realist perspec-
tive in the two Bush administrations. Furthermore, the change from
regionalist to globalist messages between administrations suggests that
616 Colin Flint et al.
presidents have some freedom in choosing the tone of their rhetoric, even
if they are reacting to events. The return to a more globalist tone in the
speeches of 2007 and 2008 is suggestive of a recalculation of the realist
perspective that dominated the first three-quarters of the G. W. Bush pres-
idency. Further evidence of this trend is presented later and indicates that
presidents have some flexibility in altering their discourse despite previ-
ous statements and acts.
President Bush’s call for a New World Order, a rhetorical device for a new
post–Cold War geopolitical code. However, President Bush’s new idea
had not become embedded as a geopolitical code within the foreign pol-
icy apparatus of the state, and hence the new Clinton administration
believed it could focus upon other areas. This changing pattern may be
interpreted as a move away from the world of regions paradigm, and pos-
sibly the anti-imperialism paradigm.
However, such a movement was partial. The most notable feature of
President Clinton’s second term in office is the increase in the number of
Asian countries mentioned in the State of the Union speeches (Figure 6).
South Korea appears in addition to all the East Asian countries mentioned
in the first term’s speeches. The geographic reach of the speeches
expanded to include South Asia (India and Pakistan) as well as Indonesia.
Furthermore, Iraq reappeared but now with the addition of its neighbour
Iran. The result is a striking image of Asian focus stretching from Japan,
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through India and China, to Iraq. The geopolitical focus of a New World
Order, initiated by President George H. W. Bush with a war in Iraq regard-
ing the sovereignty of Kuwait, had quickly changed to the necessity to
address the dynamics of growth and competition in South and East Asia.
However, the perceived need to engage Iraq persisted in the State of the
Union speeches. Hence, the combination of contingency, world of regions
(with a lesser emphasis on the Middle East), and anti-imperialism para-
digms are evident.
from President Clinton’s terms are more expansive coverage of the Middle
East, and the introduction of Afghanistan. Unsurprisingly, the impact of the
terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 and the US’s responses define this
pattern. The new found concentration on terrorism in the geopolitical code
is also evident in the mention of Libya and Somalia.
In comparison with President Clinton’s State of the Union speeches,
President Bush displayed a lack of interest in South Asia (Figure 7).
Perhaps this may be interpreted as a geopolitical opportunity cost of the
The East Asian countries retained their inclusion. As did Russia, though
Belorussia returned and Ukraine was mentioned for the first time. South
America made a rare appearance through Columbia and Venezuela. The
dramatic increase in the geographic scope of President Bush’s speeches is
consistent with the Eagle triumphant paradigm, but with a touch of contin-
gency too. The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 generated a
response that produced a global presence. However, such a presence
reinforces the US’s commitment to the key regions identified in the world
of regions paradigm. Moreover, the presence of Russia, and the emer-
gence of China, means that the legacy of the anti-imperialism paradigm
remained.
The geopolitical code introduced by President George W. Bush in the
wake of the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 was as ambitious as it
was controversial.32 It envisaged a global threat to “civilisation” that had to
be met through the twin and, sometimes, combined processes of military
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New World Order became not a political project defined or led by the US but
an overt conflict, the Global War on Terror (GWOT) that was more reactive
than creative. Furthermore, and in conjunction with this loss of control as geo-
political codes were being redefined across the globe in the wake of the Cold
War, the geography of the US’s geopolitical engagement became broader as all
parts of the world were engaged in one manner or another.
In combination, the decline of the Cold War geopolitical code, which at
least rhetorically was a global encounter, led to greater engagement across
the globe. It is also interesting to note the gaps and silences in these
speeches. Even in a period when geopolitical codes are dynamic some
allies, Western Europe and the Monroe Doctrine region of South America,
were considered secure enough to not be mentioned, even in terms of a
nod to their presumed loyalty. Also, in practice the GWOT saw much
greater US involvement in the Central Asian republics of the former Soviet
Union. This expansion of the US’s global presence remained off the main-
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100%
90% Adversaries
Allies
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
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10%
0%
Reagan_1988 Bush_1991 Clinton_1994 Clinton_1997 Clinton_2000 Bush_2003 Bush_2006
Year
However, the overall picture President Clinton was able to paint was of
a world of states that the US could work with to address global problems.
The world was one of potential allies, a geopolitical relationship that could
be cemented by US involvement. On the other hand, the emphasis upon
adversaries mobilises different reasons for a global US geopolitical code and
different means of enacting it. The world is constructed as a hostile place
requiring a militarised US response. Certainly, the activities and rhetoric of
al-Qaeda have facilitated, arguably justified, such rhetoric and practice, but
the almost total focus upon adversaries in President George W. Bush’s
speeches is a deliberate choice of rhetoric that is aimed to justify an increas-
ingly militarised foreign policy.34 This interpretation is supported by the rise
in the emphasis given to allies in the final two speeches. Coupled with a
more globalist tone this trend can be seen as a possible recalculation of the
geopolitical code in the light of the foreign policy difficulties facing the US;
a revaluation of the realist escapades of the previous years.
The stark contrast between the tone of the speeches across administrations
suggests the role of agency in how the geopolitical code of the US is justi-
fied to the public. Using a story of global reconciliation under US leadership
versus the militarised defence of a (Western) civilisation under attack portrays
a very different world, though both President Clinton’s and President George
W. Bush’s administrations were marked by engagement across the globe.
The global reach of the US was a common factor, but one was represented as
Geography of the State of the Union Speeches 625
DISCUSSION
Three general trends can be discerned from the analysis of the speeches: an
increase in reference to adversaries; an increase in the number of countries
mentioned; and an increase in the geographic scope of the foreign policy
references. There was a clear rise in the geographic scope of the speeches,
especially the inclusion of all regions of Asia, and a concomitant increase in
the number of countries mentioned. From the confined regional foci of
Presidents Reagan and George H. W. Bush, the American public was
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got broader and more complex, more countries and issues were addressed
but apparently in shorter sound bites. More was discussed, but simply.
The final trend to be discussed is the relative emphasis given to allies
and adversaries. The results are open to two interpretations. The first is the
relative explanatory power of agency, or more simply the manner in which
different presidents elected to frame their language. President Clinton used
language that reflected allies and friendship while the two Bush administra-
tions were more prone, in some years almost totally, to choose phrasing
that emphasised hostility and threat. However, the same pattern can be
interpreted as a function of geopolitical contexts related to increased
challenge to US power. President George H. W. Bush was in office at a time
of uncertainty as the Cold War geopolitical code, in existence for more than
forty years, became redundant. President George W. Bush faced a clear
manifestation of the challenge al-Qaeda posed to US geopolitical authority
and constructed an energetic (to put it mildly) response. The Cold War
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CONCLUSION
Some clear conclusions may be drawn from the empirical component of this
paper. The geographic component of the geopolitical code of the US has
changed dramatically in the past twenty years. The Cold War pattern of a
focus on the Soviet Union and select allies became redundant and in turn
Geography of the State of the Union Speeches 627
cies requires constant discursive legitimatising. The State of the Union speech
is theatre, but it facilitates actual theatres of war too.
NOTES
14. D. Halberstram, The Best and the Brightest (New York: Random House 1969).
15. Müller (note 5).
16. J. O’Loughlin, ‘Ordering the “Crush Zone”: Geopolitical Games in Post-Cold War Eastern
Europe’, in N. Kliot and D. Newman (eds.), Geopolitics at the End of the Twentieth Century (London and
Portland, OR: Frank Cass 2000) pp. 34–56.
17. Ibid., p. 37.
18. Ibid., p. 42.
19. S. P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of a World Order (New York:
Simon and Schuster 1996).
20. S. Cohen, Geography and Politics in a World Divided, 2nd ed. (New York: Oxford University
Press 1973).
21. C. Flint, Introduction to Geopolitics (London: Routledge 2006) p. 55.
22. Ibid., p. 56.
23. O’Loughlin (note 16) p. 37.
24. O’Loughlin and Grant (note 8).
25. J. T. Woolley and G. Peters, The American Presidency Project [online]. Santa Barbara, CA:
University of California (hosted), Gerhard Peters (database), available at <http://www.presidency
.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=76301>.
26. O’Loughlin and Grant (note 8).
27. For a review of the literature on this topic see J. H. Aldrich, C. Gelpi, P. Feaver, J. Reifler, and
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K. T. Sharp, ‘Foreign Policy and the Electoral Connection’, Annual Review of Political Science 9 (2006)
pp. 477–502.
28. L. Bialasiewicz, D. Campbell, S. Elden, S. Graham, A. Jeffrey, and A. J. Williams, ‘Performing
Security: The Imaginative Geographies of Current US Strategy’, Political Geography 26 (2007) pp. 405–422.
29. C. Flint and G.-W. Falah, ‘How the United States Justified its War on Terrorism: Prime Morality
and the Construction of a “Just War”’, Third World Quarterly 25 (2004) pp. 1379–1399.
30. Bialasiewicz et al. (note 28).
31. O’Loughlin and Grant (note 8) p. 520.
32. D. Gregory, The Colonial Present (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley-Blackwell 2004); D. Harvey, The New Impe-
rialism (New York: Oxford University Press 2005); N. Smith, The Endgame of Globalization (New York:
Routledge 2004).
33. O’Loughlin and Grant (note 8).
34. A. Bacevich, The New American Militarism (Oxford: Oxford University Press 2005); D. Cowen,
‘Fighting for “Freedom”: The End of Conscription in the United States and the Neoliberal Project of
Citizenship’, Citizenship Studies 10/2 (2006) pp. 167–183; C. Enloe, Globalization & Militarism: Feminists
Make the Link (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 2007); D. Priest, The Mission: Waging War and Keeping
Peace with America’s Military (New York: W.W. Norton 1994); S. Roberts, A. Secor, and M. Sparke,
‘Neoliberal Geopolitics’, Antipode 35/5 (2003) pp. 886–897.
35. I. Wallerstein, The Decline of American Power (New York: W.W. Norton 2003).
36. Müller (note 5).