MARKET SPOTLIGHT RACE TO ZERO JANUARY 2024

EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY

QUARTERLY (JANUARY – SEPTEMBER 2023) In the third quarter of 2023, just over 2,800 new
zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles were sold in the
EAMONN MULHOLLAND, SATHVIKA ANANDA EU-27—a 14% increase over the second quarter of
2023—including 1,100 buses and coaches, 1,100 light
Sales of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles Sale shares of zero-emission heavy-duty and medium trucks, and 610 heavy trucks. The sales
by segment vehicles by Member State share of heavy trucks stagnated slightly in third
Sales Shares Shares
quarter at 0.8%, the same as in the second quarter
Shares of 2023. Sales shares of zero-emission light and
5,000 20% 100%
Light/medium trucks medium trucks increased from 6% to 8% over the
Heavy trucks Rest of same period, while zero-emission bus and coaches
Buses EU-27 dipped from 17% to 16%.
4,000 16% 80% Portugal
Sweden
Of all zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles sales,
Spain
Italy 30% occurred in Germany, which is roughly
3,000 12% 60% Denmark equivalent to their 29% sales share of all heavy-
France duty vehicles. Almost 3% of all heavy trucks sold
in the Netherlands were zero-emission in the third
2,000 8% 40% Netherlands quarter of 2023, above the 0.8% EU-27 average,
and a remarkable 60% of all light and medium
trucks in the Netherlands were zero-emission in
1,000 4% 20% the same period, significantly higher than the 8%
Germany EU-27 average.

0 0% 0%
2016 2018 2020 2022 2023 2016 2018 2020 2022 2023
Q2 Q2
2017 2019 2021 2023 2023 2017 2019 2021 2023 2023
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

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1. HEAVY TRUCKS FIGURE 1.1 FIGURE 1.2
Sales of heavy trucks by powertrain Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks
TRUCKS WITH A GROSS VEHICLE
Sales (bars) Shares (dots)
WEIGHT ABOVE 12 TONNES
97% 2% <1% 1,000 1.00%
Natural gas Battery electric Fuel cell electric
Heavy trucks represented 78% of sales Diesel 820
Battery electric
of all heavy-duty vehicles. Of the 76,000 750 0.75%
heavy trucks sold in the third quarter of 580 610
2023, 610 were zero-emission vehicles— 500
500 0.50%
almost double the entirety of zero-emission
290
heavy truck sales in 2021. The majority of 250 0.25%
these were rigid body trucks, and the share 80 90
of zero-emission tractor trailers, the most 0 0.00%
THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2023
popular heavy-duty vehicle segment in Q1 Q2 Q3
Europe, fell from 36% in the second quarter
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of 2023 to 32% in the third quarter. Volvo
Group, which consists of Volvo Trucks and
FIGURE 1.3 FIGURE 1.4
Renault Trucks, produced two thirds of all
Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks by configuration Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks by model and
zero-emission heavy trucks—a similar share and powertrain battery capacity
to the second quarter—despite accounting
for roughly 25% of conventional vehicle
6x2 tractor trailers Sales
Volvo Trucks FH Series
sales. IVECO did not sell any zero-emission 4x2 4x2 6x2
60
tractor rigid rigid
trucks in the third quarter of 2023, and trailers trucks trucks Other Renault Trucks D Battery chemistry
MAN sold just two. These manufacturers 50 Volvo Trucks FE/FL Series
LFP
combined also sold roughly 25% of Conventional Volvo Trucks FM Series NMC
vehicles
Europe’s conventional heavy trucks in the 40
Volvo Trucks FL Series
same period.
30 Renault Trucks D Wide Mercedes-Benz Actros 4x2
Zero-emission
vehicles Mercedes-Benz Actros 6x2
20
Scania 6x2
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
10 Scania 4x2
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0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Battery capacity (kWh)
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2 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

 FIGURE 1.5 FIGURE 1.6
Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks by Member State Shares of heavy trucks by powertrain and manufacturer
Shares
Germany Rest of EU-27 50%
30% 19%
Zero-emission vehicles
Conventional vehicles

40%

30%

Netherlands Sweden
17% 9%
20%

France 10%
16% 8%
Spain

0%
Volvo Trucks M-Benz DAF Others
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Renault Trucks Scania Hyundai
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3 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

2. LIGHT AND MEDIUM FIGURE 2.1 FIGURE 2.2

TRUCKS Sales of light and medium trucks by powertrain Historic sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks
Sales (bars) Sale shares (dots)
TRUCKS WITH A GROSS VEHICLE 90% 2% 8% 2,000 10.0%
WEIGHT BETWEEN 3.5 TONNES AND Diesel Natural gas Battery electric Fuel cell electric
12 TONNES Battery electric
1,500 7.5%
Light and medium trucks represented
1,100 1,100
15% of sales of all heavy-duty vehicles. 1,000 910 900 5.0%
Of the 14,000 vehicles sold in in the third 720 790
quarter of 2023, 1,100 were zero-emission 450
500 2.5%
vehicles, representing an increase in the
sales share from 6% in second quarter
to 8% in the third quarter. Nearly 60% of THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG 0 0.0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2023
zero-emission vehicle sales were vans, Q1 Q2 Q3
with the remainder being trucks, while THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
vans only represented 35% of conventional
vehicle sales. Ford was by far the greatest
FIGURE 2.3 FIGURE 2.4
supplier of zero-emission light and medium
trucks; their electric Ford Transit model Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks by Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks by
configuration and powertrain model and battery capacity
had 770 purchases in the third quarter of
2023, representing 28% of all zero-emission 4x4 Sales
vans
heavy-duty sales. 4x2 4x4 800
4x2 rigid Battery chemistry For d Transit
rigid vans trucks
trucks Unknown
700
LFP
Conventional NMC
Other 600
vehicles
100
StreetScooter WorkXL

Zero-emission 80
vehicles
60 Fiat Ducato Iveco eDaily
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
40
M-Benz eSprinter
THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG Mitsubishi Fuso Canter

20
Foton Aumark
BYD ETM 6
0
0 25 50 75 100 125
Battery capacity (kWh)
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4 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

 FIGURE 2.5 FIGURE 2.6
Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks by Member State Shares of light and medium trucks by powertrain and manufacturer
Shares
45% 36%
Germany Netherlands 70%

Zero-emission vehicles
Conventional vehicles

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

7% 6% 4%
Rest of EU-27 Denmark France

0%
Ford Maxus Mitsubishi M-Benz
2% Fuso
Spain Street- Iveco Fiat Others
Scooter

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5 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

3. BUSES AND FIGURE 3.1 FIGURE 3.2

COACHES Sales of city buses (top) and interurban/coaches

(bottom) by powertrain
Historic sales of all zero-emission buses
Sales (bars) Shares (dots)
WITH A GROSS VEHICLE WEIGHT 27% 10% 25% 36% 4,000 20%
Fuel cell electric
ABOVE 3.5 TONNES Diesel Natural Hybrid Battery 3,400
Battery electric
gas electric
Buses and coaches represented 7% of
sales of all heavy-duty vehicles. Of the 2% 3,000 2,800 15%

Fuel cell
7,000 vehicles sold in the third quarter of
electric
2023, 1,100 were zero-emission vehicles, 2,000 10%
representing a 16% share—a drop from 1,700
17% in the second quarter. Battery electric
4% 1,500

city bus shares remained the same as in

95% Natural gas
1,000
1,000 1,100 1,100
5%
Diesel
the second quarter of 2023 at 36%, but
the shares of natural gas city buses fell 1%
due to a rise in the sales shares of hybrid Battery 0 0%
vehicles. Only zero-emission city buses electric 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2023
Q1 Q2 Q3
were sold in four countries (the Netherlands, THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
Denmark, Ireland, and Finland) in the third
quarter of 2023, and sales were above
FIGURE 3.3
50% in five additional countries (Portugal,
Greece, Romania, Belgium, and Poland). Sales of city buses by Member State and powertrain
In the third quarter, MAN delivered the 75%
largest number of zero-emission buses of
any manufacturer, representing 12% of all 60%
zero-emission bus sales, followed by Yutong
with an 11% share. The third largest supplier
of zero-emission buses was a new entrant 45%

to the market, China-based manufacturer Battery electric

Guangtong, which produced 120 (or 30%
11%) of all zero-emission buses sold. The Diesel
manufacturer sold just 9 buses in the EU Hybrid
15%
prior to the third quarter. Unlike the other
Natural gas
China-headquartered manufacturers which
have a strong market presence in Europe— 0% Fuel cell electric
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
namely BYD and Yutong—Guangtong was
2021 2022 2023
not amongst the top ten manufacturers of
THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
zero-emission vehicles sold in China in 2022.

6 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

 FIGURE 3.4 FIGURE 3.5
Sales of zero-emission city buses by powertrain and Member State Shares of all buses by powertrain and manufacturer
Shares
Netherlands

Denmark 80%

Ireland Zero-emission vehicles

Conventional vehicles
Finland
70%
Portugal

Greece

Romania 60%

Belgium

Poland
50%
Luxembourg

Sweden

Spain 40%

Latvia

Italy
30%
Germany

France

Lithuania 20%

Czechia

Austria
10%
Hungary

Estonia
Fuel cell 0%
Battery electric electric Hybrid Natural gas Diesel MAN Guangtong M-Benz CaetanoBus Other
EU-27
Yutong Solaris BYD Heuliez Bus
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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7 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

4. TECHNOLOGY FOCUS: ELECTRIFIED ROAD SYSTEMS
LOOKING BEYOND QUARTERLY SALES
Electric road systems (ERS) are a means of providing
power to electric vehicles while in motion. The
technology is of particular interest to the truck sector,
as widespread installation of the technology may
enable long-haul vehicles to reduce battery sizes and
charging times. There are three main forms of ERS:
(i) overhead catenary lines, where a vehicle connects
to overhead power lines through a pantograph; (ii)
induction charging, where the vehicle is powered
wirelessly through charging plates in the road; and
(iii) conductive rail charging, where the collector
is fitted to the bottom of the vehicle and connects
to an electric rail embedded in the road. Today
approximately 30 km of ERS is currently in operation,
almost entirely made up by overhead catenary lines
which operate in Germany.
The eHighway project on the A5 in Frankfurt,
Germany, is the most notable example of an overhead
catenary ERS. Scania trucks fitted with pantographs
traverse the lines on the 17 km route. The largest
demonstration of induction charging, led by
Electreon, concluded in 2023 in Visby, Sweden, where
1.6 km of road was fitted with charging plates and
was tested with a Scania and GINAF truck. Electreon
has also won a tender to build wireless charging
roads in Trondheim, Norway, and another 2km stretch
south of Paris on the A10 highway. Both projects are
set to commence in 2024. There are further plans in
Germany to expand the existing A5 eHighway from
Darmstadt to the border of Baden-Württemberg,
which will result in approximately 60 km of overhead
catenary lines if deployed in both directions. There
are further plans to deploy new overhead catenary
lines as part of the E-Highway in Bayern, but details
of the plan are still unclear.

1. A1 Siemens eHighway
Germany France Sweden Italy Norway 2. Gross Dölln
3. E-charge cologne
14
1 4. A5 Siemens eHighway
8 5. Lkw-Innovationscluster
2
6. E-Highway Bayern
3
7. eWayBW
4 5
15 8. A10 ElectReon
7 6 9 9. E16 Sweden
10
13 10. Sweden eArlanda
Operational Testing 11
11. Sweden Smartroad Gotland
Planned Retired
12 12. EVolution Road Project
Lund
1. A1 Siemens eHighway 4. A5 Siemens eHighway 7. eWayBW 10. Sweden eArlanda 13. APS for Road
Provider: Siemens Provider: Siemens Provider: Siemens Provider: Evias Provider: Alstom 13. APS for Road
Length: 10 km Length: 17 km Length: 3.4 km Length: 2 km Length: 400 m
Type: Overhead catenary line Type: Overhead catenary line Type: Overhead catenary line Type: Conductive electric rail Type: Conductive rail charging 14. Italy Arena del Futuro
15. Trondheim electric road
2. Gross Dölln 5. Lkw-Innovationscluster 8. A10 ElectReon 11. Sweden Smartroad Gotland 14. Italy Arena del Futuro
Provider: Siemens Provider: Unknown Provider: ElectReon Provider: ElectReon Provider: Aleatica project
Length: 2 km Length: Unknown Length: 2 km Length: 1.6 km Length: 1 km
Type: Multiple technologies Type: Overhead catenary line Type: Induction charging Type: Induction charging Type: Induction charging

8 3.ICCT MARKET
E-charge cologneSPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN
6. E-Highway BayernHEAVY-DUTY
9. E16VEHICLE
Sweden MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY
12. EVolution Road Project Lund 15. Trondheim electric road project
Provider: ElectReon Provider: Unknown Provider: Siemens Provider: Elonroad Provider: Electreon
Length: 100 m Length: Unknown Length: 2 km Length: 1 km Length: Unknown
 Planned Retired
12

1. A1 Siemens eHighway 4. A5 Siemens eHighway 7. eWayBW 10. Sweden eArlanda 13. APS for Road
Provider: Siemens Provider: Siemens Provider: Siemens Provider: Evias Provider: Alstom
Length: 10 km Length: 17 km Length: 3.4 km Length: 2 km Length: 400 m
Type: Overhead catenary line Type: Overhead catenary line Type: Overhead catenary line Type: Conductive electric rail Type: Conductive rail charging

2. Gross Dölln 5. Lkw-Innovationscluster 8. A10 ElectReon 11. Sweden Smartroad Gotland 14. Italy Arena del Futuro
Provider: Siemens Provider: Unknown Provider: ElectReon Provider: ElectReon Provider: Aleatica
Length: 2 km Length: Unknown Length: 2 km Length: 1.6 km Length: 1 km
Type: Multiple technologies Type: Overhead catenary line Type: Induction charging Type: Induction charging Type: Induction charging

3. E-charge cologne 6. E-Highway Bayern 9. E16 Sweden 12. EVolution Road Project Lund 15. Trondheim electric road project
Provider: ElectReon Provider: Unknown Provider: Siemens Provider: Elonroad Provider: Electreon
Length: 100 m Length: Unknown Length: 2 km Length: 1 km Length: Unknown
Type: Induction charging Type: Overhead catenary line Type: Overhead catenary line Type: Conductive rail charging Type: Induction charging

9 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

DEFINITIONS, DATA SOURCES, METHODOLOGY, AND ASSUMPTIONS
A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose
propulsion system produces zero combustion
emissions, such as a dedicated battery-electric, fuel
cell-electric, or other motor that is not driven by
combustion.
A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle,
intended for the transport of passengers or freight,
with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tons.
A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight
above 12 tons.
A light and medium truck is a truck or van with a
gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tons and 12 tons.
A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle
weight above 3.5 tons that is used exclusively in
urban environments.
An interurban bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross
vehicle weight above 3.5 tons that is used in both
urban and regional environments.
A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle
weight above 3.5 tons that is used exclusively in
regional environments.
All data on the sheets for heavy trucks and light and
medium trucks and any figures with the heading
“all zero-emission buses” in the buses and coaches
sheet are supplied by IHS Markit; Copyright © IHS
Markit, 2023. The exception is the battery size and
chemistries in Figures 1.4 and 2.4, which were derived
from manufacturer websites and press releases. Any
figure with the heading “city buses” was sourced
from Chatrou CME Solutions. All data from the
technology focus on electric road systems was
sourced from project reports and press releases.
All countries from the EU-27 Member States, except
Bulgaria, are covered here. Data related to city
buses exclude Bulgaria, Slovakia, Croatia, Malta, and
Cyprus.
The authors would like to thank Patrik Akerman
(Siemens) and Jakob Rogstadius (RISE) for their very
useful comments on ERS deployment in Europe.

10 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

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