PROBABILTY

PROBABILITY IN REAL LIFE

WEATHER GAMES TRAFFIC PRICES

 SCENARIO OF PROBABILITY IN
REAL LIFE
SAY I WANT TO BUY A NEW TOY; HOWEVER, I DON'T
HAVE ENOUGH MONEY TO BUY IT ON FULL PRICE.

RATHER THAN BUYING IT ON A STORE, I LOOKED

FOR A PLACE WHERE I CAN GET A CHANCE TO GET
IT FOR A LOWER PRICE; HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY
OF ME ACTUALLY GETTING IT IS NOT GUARANTEED.
 ONLINE RAFFLES

There are online sellers that rather than selling the items in full price they put the
items on raffle. This makes the cost cheaper in a sense that there is more than 1
person who's actually paying for it but only 1 person can actually receive it.
 EXAMPLE

Person 1 Person 6
Person 2 Person 7
Person 3 Person 8
Person 4 Person 9
$5

Person 5 Person 10
,0
00

So intead of only 1 person If the slots are full then the

pays for the $5,000 price, the
seller devides it into 10 slots
and each slot will cost a
person $500.
One all slots are complete the
seller still achieved the full
seller now draws from the 10
price of the product ($5,000)
slots on who will actually win
the product.
 EXAMPLE
a Person 1 Person 6
Person 2 Person 7
Person 3 Person 8 P= Number of purchased slot
Total number of slots
Person 4 Person 9
$5

Person 5 Person 10
,0
00

This means each slot has a 1/10 chance of winning.

If you want to increase your chance of winning another options is
buying more slots if allowed.
 EXAMPLE
b. Number of slots = 50
Price per slot = $100 P=
Number of purchased slot
Total number of slots
Probability of each slot winning is 1/50
c. Number of slots = 5
Price per slot = $1,000
$5
,0

Probability of each slot winning is 1/5

00

The seller can also change the number of slots to either increase or decrease the price for
each slot but this also directly affects the probability of winning. Example the more slots
that means the price for each slot is cheaper but there will be more competition compared
to lesser slots where the price is greater but the competition is lesser making your chance
better.