The Big Picture

Global 2023 Trade Outlook

A look ahead to the key strategic trends in

world trade expected through 2023
and beyond.

October 2022
The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

Table of contents

Introduction 3

The Take 3

Global shifts in trade: The example of India 4

Containerized trade outlook 6

Forecasting changes in trade caused by IMO decarbonization goals 8

Changes in trade caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict 10

Containerized supply chains ease to ‘new normal’ 12

Further reading 14

About Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain 14

About S&P Global Market Intelligence 15

Disclosures 15

Agnieszka Maciejewska, Economics Manager, GTAS

Katarzyna Skrzypek, Senior Economist II, GTAS
Jakub Kwiatkowski, PhD, Senior Economist I, GTAS
Krzysztof Ziolkowski, PhD, Senior Economist I, GTAS
Chris Brooks, Executive Editor, Journal of Commerce (JOC)

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

Introduction
After the second quarter of 2021 when the post-2020 recovery in trade peaked, the world’s largest trading economies started
slowing, while since the second quarter of 2022 macroeconomic indicators have worsened significantly, pointing to the possibility
of a recession in the second half of 2022 and into 2023, especially in advanced economies. In addition to the global economic
slowdown, the most important factors monitored by our trade forecast team in the second half of 2022 have been the war in Ukraine
and the rising inflation in many parts of the world. At the same time, the global economy has faced geopolitical tensions in East Asia,
including another wave of COVID-19 and lockdowns in mainland China in August as well as tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

The Take
Ocean cargo demand in the second half of 2022 has begun to lessen. Recession fears, high inflation limiting consumer demand,
and preponing a significant part of peak season shipping to avoid last year’s levels of port congestion are among the factors
contributing to slower demand for container trade, resulting in more free capacity and falling freight rates.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Global Trade Analytics Suite (GTAS) Forecasting projects containerized trade to increase by
3.2% in 2023, with the segment’s global compound annual growth rate reaching an estimated 3.1% in the medium term (2022-
2025) and 3.0% in the long term (2022-2030).

In the longer term, we anticipate sea trade volumes to grow continuously. This means more ships and more global greenhouse
gas emissions. The maritime industry is highly dependent on fossil fuels and already emits about 3% of the world’s greenhouse
gas, according to the International Maritime Organization, or IMO. Because the maritime sector operates across borders, the IMO
does not assign emissions shares to specific countries.

Starting on Jan. 1, 2023, the IMO will introduce new short-term greenhouse gas reduction measures, with requirements to
include: calculating ships’ Energy Efficiency Existing Index, or EEXI; implementing technical means to improve ships’ energy
efficiency; and calculating and reporting operational carbon intensity indicators, or CII, linking ships’ greenhouse gas emissions
to their carrying capacity.

In the wake of significant bilateral trade volatility between Russia and nearly all markets in the second quarter of 2022,
attributable to the war in Ukraine, recent data reveals emerging trade patterns around the globe.

The trade value of imports from Russia increased from June through August 2022, primarily as a result of rising oil, gas and coal
prices, as well as to spikes in Russian imports in several countries around the world. The group of countries boosting imports
from Russia is led by India, which noted a greater than 100% year-over-year increase in Russian import trade values each month
since the war’s February start through August 2022.

We expect an acceleration of trade in India in 2023, with trade value increases of 3.5% (export) and 1.3% (import). In terms of
volume, we project respective export and import growth of 3.8% and 7.3%.

The Indian economy’s trade expansion is yielding new opportunities for the market’s top trade partners, as well as for recently
emerging ones. According to GTAS Forecasting projections, in 2022, the value of India’s exports should increase by 4.9%, while
its trade volume should decrease by 2.3%. At the same time, GTAS anticipates India’s imports to drop 1.6% in value and increase
0.4% in volume.

Our 2023 global export estimates for Russia show China as the market’s most important trading partner, with exports from
Russia to China figuring to double compared to 2021. Yet China’s current economic slowdown adds considerable uncertainty to
this outlook. We estimate that the next-ranked main importers from Russia will be Turkey, Belarus, Kazakhstan and South Korea.
Western trading partners will lose their significance in Russia’s trade turnover. This trend could become even more visible if
Russia cuts gas supplies to Europe in the winter of 2022-23.

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

Global shifts in trade: The example of India

In the wake of significant bilateral trade volatility between Russia and nearly all markets in the second quarter of 2022, attributable
to the war in Ukraine, recent data reveals emerging trade patterns around the globe. In terms of exports to Russia, nearly all
countries show notable year-over-year declines in trade value. Surprisingly, these declines span not only the primarily developed
economies imposing sanctions on Russia, but also many emerging economies. On average, global exports to Russia dropped about
50% from the war’s February start through May, but since June 2022 that exports downturn has slightly moderated. The three top
contributors to this moderation, markets significantly increasing exports to Russia, have been mainland China, Iran and Turkey.

Meanwhile, the trade value of imports from Russia increased from June through August 2022, primarily because of rising oil, gas and
coal prices, but also because of Russian import spikes in several markets around the world. Those markets include mainland China,
Brazil, Vietnam, Turkey and Serbia, but most importantly are led by India, which noted a greater than 100% increase in trade year
over year each month since the war’s February start through August 2022.

India’s imports from Russia have contributed to its remarkable resistance to the global economic slowdown, with impressive year-
over-year growth rates in the market from May through August 2022. In fact, India’s monthly year-over-year trade growth over the
trailing 12 months through August is the most significant among the world’s largest trading economies.

India’s monthly exports and imports growth YOY (%)

Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22
90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
Export Import

Data compiled Oct. 16, 2022.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.
© 2022 S&P Global.

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence Global Trade Analytics Suite (GTAS) after a pandemic-related trade
contraction in 2020, with export value of 15.3% and import value down 22.0%, India’s trade recovered in 2021, up 40.9% for exports
and 54.2% for imports.

In line with GTAS data, in 2021 India was the world’s sixteenth-ranked exporter by trade value ($106.3 billion) and twelfth-ranked
by volume (314.1 million metric tons, or MMT). In terms of imports, in 2021 India ranked tenth ($550.3 billion) by value and fourth by
volume (684.1 MMT).

The Indian economy’s trade expansion is yielding new opportunities

for the market’s top trade partners, as well as for recently
emerging ones. According to GTAS projections, the value of India’s
The Indian economy’s trade expansion
exports should increase 4.9% in 2022, while the market’s trade is yielding new opportunities for the
volume should decrease 2.3%. Conversely, GTAS expects India’s
imports to drop 1.6% in value and increase 0.4% in volume during market’s top trade partners, as well as
the same period. for recently emerging ones
We expect an acceleration of trade in India in 2023, with value
increases of 3.5% (export) and 1.3% (import). In terms of volume, we project respective export and import growth of 3.8% and 7.3%.

Starting in 2024, India’s trade should return to the long-term steady growth trends typical in the market prior to the Russia-
Ukraine conflict. GTAS models a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3% for export value and a 3.4% CAGR for volume in the
market from 2024 to 2040. At the same time, we expect the market’s import value and volume CAGRs to amount to 3.5% and 3.8%,
respectively.

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

Containerized trade outlook

Ocean cargo demand in the second half of 2022 has begun to lessen. Recession fears, high inflation limiting consumer demand,
and preponing a significant part of the peak season shipping to avoid last year’s levels of port congestion are among the factors
contributing to slower demand for container trade, resulting in more free capacity and falling freight rates.

For 2022, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s GTAS projects 0.7% growth in containerized trade, up 2.8% and 2.0% year over year in the
first two quarters, respectively, and a trade slowdown in the second half of the year, with decreases estimated at 1.5% and 0.5% in
the third and fourth quarters of 2022.

GTAS models a 3.2% increase in containerized trade in 2023, with the segment’s global compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
reaching an estimated 3.1% in the medium term (2022-2025) and 3.0% in the long term (2022-2030).

Total container trade

200

180

160

140
TEU (millions)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Data as of Apr. 10, 2022.

TEU = twenty-foot-equivalent unit.
Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; GTAS Forecasting.
© 2022 S&P Global.

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

Global container freight rates in 2022 peaked in the first quarter, then started decreasing in April, with more significant drop visible
from June 2022 onwards The global rate amounted to $3,540 per 40-foot equivalent unit, or FEU, on Oct. 14, according to Freightos
data. That is nearly 66% lower than the equivalent period a year ago.

The drop in global freight rates in recent weeks has accelerated to such extent that they have already descended to the level from
the beginning of 2021. The rates are still higher, though, than two years ago when the COVID-19 surge started, with the level of
$2,000 per FEU having been crossed back in September 2020.

Freightos Baltic Index: Global Container Freight Index (weekly)

$12,500
2021 2022
$11,500
$10,500
$9,500
$8,500
(US$/FEU)

$7,500
$6,500
$5,500
$4,500
$3,500
$2,500
Jan. Jan. Feb. Feb. Mar. Mar. Apr. Apr. Apr. May. May. Jun. Jun. Jul. Jul. Aug. Aug. Sep. Sep. Sep. Oct.
07 21 04 18 04 18 01 15 29 13 27 10 24 08 22 05 19 02 16 30 14

Data as of Apr. 10, 2022.

FEU = forty-foot-equivalent unit.
Source: Freightos.
© 2022 S&P Global.

Since late April 2022, Asia-U.S. East Coast FEU prices have dropped nearly 60% and Asia-U.S. West Coast more than 80%. The
steepening decline in container rates on the Asia-U.S. West Coast trade lane hit a recent-months low on Oct. 7 at $2,435 per FEU,
reflecting softening but still elevated U.S. import demand.

Overall, we expect U.S. container imports to grow 5.9% year over year in 2022 and 4.2% year over year in 2023. U.S. 20-foot
equivalent unit, or TEU, volume had a very good first half of 2022, up with 10.5% year over year and 8.5% year over year growth in the
first and second quarters, respectively, but in the third quarter, container imports growth slowed to an estimated 1.5% year over
year, according to recent GTAS model results.

U.S. warehouses are full, so even with carriers offering shippers additional slots for cargo out of Asia, there is no need for retailers to
send it. That has caused carriers like Maersk, MSC and CMA-CGM to start removing capacity on this trade lane, although not yet on
a massive scale.

GTAS data for total exports and imports for mainland China shows that after a positive trend in year-over-year growth in June and
July 2022, August 2022 brought a significant slowdown. Year-over-year growth in total exports dropped from more than 17% in
June and July to just 7% in August, while in August imports declined year over year by 0.2%. That reflects mainland China struggling
with an overall economic slowdown caused primarily by the market’s zero-COVID policy and real-estate sector crisis, as well as by
heatwaves disrupting factory output, especially in the southwestern region. Given that containerized exports constitute over 50%
of total Chinese exports, this type of cargo should face significant long-term impacts from China’s economic challenges, a situation
not expected to change anytime soon.

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

Forecasting changes in trade caused by

IMO decarbonization goals
Seaborne trade is estimated to account for 72% of the world’s the total transportation volume and 50% of global trade value in 2022.
We estimate sea volumes grew 4.4% in 2021 and should drop 1.5% in 2022, according to recent models from S&P Global Market
Intelligence’s Global Trade Analytics Suite (GTAS) Forecasting.

In the longer term, sea trade volumes should grow continuously. That means more ships and more global emissions of greenhouse
gas, or GHG. Highly dependent on fossil fuels, the maritime industry already emits about 3% of the world’s GHG, according to
the International Maritime Organization, or IMO. Because the maritime sector operates across borders, the IMO does not assign
emissions shares to specific countries.

The IMO projects shipping emissions to grow 90% to 130% through 2050 on rising shipping demand. Responding to these alarming
trends, the IMO has set clear emission targets aiming to reduce total GHG emissions by 50% and emission intensity (emissions per
transport work) by 70% by 2050 compared with 2008 emission levels.

The IMO adopted its initial strategy on the reduction of GHG emissions from international shipping in April 2018, setting out a vision
for reducing and phasing out the emissions as soon as possible. The strategy is due to be revised and strengthened in 2023. The
initial strategy contains several greenhouse gas reduction proposals, categorized into short-, mid- and long-term measures.

World seaborne trade

Seaborne trade nominal value Seaborne metric tonnes
18,000 18

16,000 16

14,000 14

Metric tonnes (billions)

12,000 12

10,000 10
($B)

8,000 8

6,000 6

4,000 4

2,000 2

0 0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039

Data as of October 2022.

Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; GTAS Forecasting.
© 2022 S&P Global.

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

Starting on Jan. 1, 2023, the IMO will introduce new short-term greenhouse gas reduction measures, with requirements to include:
calculating ships’ Energy Efficiency Existing Index, or EEXI; implementing technical means to improve ships’ energy efficiency; and
calculating and reporting operational carbon intensity indicators (CII) linking ships’ GHG emissions to their carrying capacity.

To reach these ambitious emission targets, the public and private

sectors have launched several initiatives to contribute to supply
chain decarbonization. Reducing emissions in the long run will
Reducing emissions in the long run
require innovations in ship design, propulsion technology and will require innovations in ship design,
low-carbon fuel types such as hydrogen. While research in these
areas will contribute to future emission reductions, the inherent
propulsion technology and low-carbon
uncertainty about the expected arrival time and readiness fuel types such as hydrogen
for mass deployment of these technologies make large-scale
improvements unlikely in the 10-year horizon. Instead, recent
actions of operators such as lower service speeds, ship modifications, smart voyage planning, fleet pooling, rigorous emissions
accounting and upgraded port infrastructure should lower emissions in the short term.

As those innovations are implemented, GTAS projects shifts in share of sea cargo types. Some logistics companies’ fleets already
include new vessels fueled by liquefied natural gas rather than crude oil. The technology of powering vessels using LNG is one of the
first steps toward international shipping becoming carbon-neutral by 2050.

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

Changes in trade caused by

Russia-Ukraine conflict
The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global markets for fossil resources, including gas and coal. If the war in Ukraine becomes
more prolonged, the relocation of supply chains may lead to a new structure of the world economy. In such a scenario, Russia would
find it difficult to regain the economic position it had before the conflict.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s GTAS, in 2021 Russia was the world’s third-largest exporter of coal by volume after
Australia and Indonesia. The three countries together accounted for 60% of global coal exports in 2021, leaving all others far behind.
That same year, the world’s top coal importers were India, mainland China and Japan, accounting for 705 million metric tons (MMt)
or 49% of global coal imports.

Meanwhile, Russia ranked among the top 10 gas exporters and the main gas suppliers to Europe, with EU countries importing about
50% of their gas from Russia. Replacing Russian gas with LNG is difficult due to infrastructure shortages. The largest number of
LNG terminals are in markets importing small amounts of Russian gas (France, Spain, Portugal), and the fewest in Central and
Eastern Europe (only in Poland, Croatia and Lithuania). The lack of unanimous support for the embargo on Russian gas by EU
countries prompted the European Commission to postpone actions to reduce dependence on Russia. Concurrently, Russian leader
Vladimir Putin has tried to prove that he does not need the European market by finding powerful allies in other regions of the world.
In the first nine months of 2022, Gazprom increased gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline by 61%, according to
Interfax.

Moreover, the European Council has decided that the EU will stop importing almost 90% of its crude oil from Russia by the end of
2022. The temporary derogation will apply to oil delivered via pipelines.

Major importers of goods from Russia

Share of Russia's global exports (%)
30
China (mainland) Turkey Belarus Kazakhstan South Korea Italy Poland India

25

20

15

10

0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Data as of Oct. 20, 2022.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.
© 2022 S&P Global.

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

Global export estimates for 2023 show China as Russia’s most important trading partner, with Russian exports to China almost
doubling compared to 2021. Yet China’s current economic slowdown adds considerable uncertainty to this outlook. We estimate that
the next-ranked main importers from Russia will be Turkey, Belarus, Kazakhstan and South Korea. Western trading partners will
lose their significance in Russia’s trade turnover. This trend could become even more visible if Russia cuts gas supplies to Europe in
the winter of 2022-23.

Despite the embargo imposed by the European Union on the export

of goods to Russia, there has recently been an increase in exports of Global export estimates for 2023
goods from Russia to Kyrgyzstan and from Kyrgyzstan to Russia, further
demonstrating Russia’s range of options for lessening the impact of EU show China as Russia’s most
economic sanctions. important trading partner, with
Global supply chains are adapting relatively quickly to the economic Russian exports to China almost
disruptions caused by war in Eastern Europe. Relocations of Russia’s trade
in raw materials show the high heterogeneity of supply chains, yet the doubling compared to 2021
conflict may lead to permanent shifts.

War-related disruptions in the energy and grain markets are causing sharp price rises for raw materials and food to rise sharply.
Global supply currently falls short of global demand, with the resulting imbalance in the markets of individual goods leading to an
increase in inflation and, in consequence, ripple effects of economic strain around the world. In the long run, the invisible hand of the
market should restore economic equilibrium, although at a different level and not necessarily a better one for average consumers.

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

Containerized supply chains ease to ‘new normal’

Global container shipping disruption has eased significantly, driven by declining demand for imports from Asia, and is freeing
up the utilization of assets including ships and trucks. The easing of demand will challenge container lines to maintain capacity
discipline or risk further weakening of rates and the return of price wars that triggered major consolidation, including the collapse of
a major carrier, over the last decade. The delivery of new container ships starting in late 2023 threatens to exacerbate the capacity
imbalance, putting downward pressure on spot and contract freight rates.

Port strikes on the U.S. West Coast tied to contract negotiations could fuel congestion, push up rates, and cripple the timely delivery
of imports and exports. Continued European port strikes and U.S. rail strike threats reflect mounting global labor tensions even as
inflation squeezes port workers, who are increasingly understanding their importance to global trade following historic disruptions
during the pandemic. Rising geopolitical tensions also have the potential to impact U.S.-China trade, helping to drive China+1
sourcing strategies.

How did we get here?

Sustained record-breaking Asian imports to North America had disrupted the global container shipping system. Following a
pandemic-related plunge in monthly Asian import volumes to 900,000 twenty-foot-equivalent unit containers, or TEU, in March
2020, monthly volumes have stayed well above the 1 million-TEU mark and repeatedly hit more than 1.5 million TEU, according to
PIERS data. Asian import volumes set a new record in 2021, jumping 14.4 percent to 19 million TEU, after a previous annual high
of 16.6 million TEU in 2020. The final months of this year, however, are showing a decline from previous-year levels, particularly in
September.

On top of Asian import volumes, volumes have grown on the trans-Atlantic in both directions, bringing a volatility not seen in at
least a decade on the historically sleepy, mature trade lane. The shifting of capacity by carriers from other ocean trades, such as
those between North America and Latin America, pulled down reliability and clogged transshipment ports connecting to secondary
trades.

In North America, particularly the U.S., the shortage of port capacity narrowed the funnel for imports. Charleston’s Leatherman
terminal opened the first new U.S. marine container terminal in a decade only to see longshore labor scare away major carriers from
calling due to a jurisdictional dispute.

The North American Class I railroads found their intermodal network overwhelmed and were caught flat-footed after furloughing
rail workers when carload and container volumes plunged in mid-2020. Many of those workers are reluctant to return, and those who
have, may still strike, as part of the 12 rail unions. President Joe Biden interceded in mid-September to stop their planned strike by
forcing a tentative yet still shaky deal.

The trucking sector, whether moving components between U.S. factories or hauling toys from U.S. ports, struggled to keep up with
high volumes that are only now beginning to slow. Truckload carriers continue to extend capacity, though the industry is entering a
new cycle as market conditions shake out some of the smaller, weaker players.

A scarcity of chassis, critical to move ocean containers to and from ports, warehouses, and rail ramps, has contributed to the
disruption. The equipment was already in short supply due to U.S. tariffs and duties on Chinese imports, killing the latter’s
production. Importers, unable to receive more cargo in already-stuffed warehouses, held onto containers, along with the wheeled
equipment under them. U.S.-produced chassis will begin hitting the market in late 2023, which should ease congestion and enable
importers to return the equipment faster, restoring utilization.

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

The takeaway
While North American import pressures are slackening, the threat of U.S. West Coast labor strikes, a national rail strike, along with
new geopolitical flashpoints, pose stumbling blocks to supply chain stabilization. Containerized supply chains may never return to
the reliability seen pre-pandemic, forcing the C-Suite to keep their newly found focus on supply chain well into the coming years.

Signposts:
– Separate rather than joint statements from the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and International Longshoremen’s
Association suggest negotiations are deteriorating from already stalled conditions.

– Black Friday sales and U.S. import volumes from Asia in December and January will give a sense of retailers’ expectations for
consumer demand in the first half of 2023. Specifically, the best window will be the health of U.S. retail restocking volumes in the
weeks before Chinese New Year, kicking off roughly two weeks of celebrations and reduced factory production starting on
Jan. 20.

– A return to key container shipping metrics such as ocean reliability, U.S. port container dwell times, chassis availability will
signal just how much supply chains have regained pre-pandemic resilience despite mounting headwinds from shipping and
broader global forces.

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The Big Picture: Global 2023 Trade Outlook

Further reading
Maritime and Trade Talk - Trade Outlook: Response to Geopolitical Events

Global Trade Monitor – October 2022

Russian gas imports in the EU – threat or a chance?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine puts additional strain on global food production chain

Implications of economic sanctions for Russian international trade

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