ECONOMICS ANALYSIS

The expected recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has been derailed in 2022 as the
global economy faces a rare convergence of so much uncertainty. The escalating war
between Russia and Ukraine caused a global energy crisis, record-high inflation in many
countries, central banks massively raised interest rates… the lingering geopolitical effects
continued to be volatile and likely to lead to a global recession. By the end of 2022,
global growth is estimated at 3.2% (according to the IMF) – a sharp decrease compared
to the impressive growth rate of 2021 (5.9%).
For Vietnam, overcoming the difficulties caused by the general context of the world
market, our country has maintained macroeconomic stability, controlled inflation well,
maintained the trade balance, actively flexibility in applying monetary and fiscal policies.
The results in 2022 are clear evidence reflecting the positive effect of the economy: GDP
growth reached 8.2% - the highest in the period 2011 - 2022, the total export and import
turnover of goods reached USD 732.5 billion - an increase of 9.5% over the previous
year.
Total FDI capital invested in Vietnam in 2022 will reach nearly 27.72 billion USD,
disbursement level will reach a record of 22.4 billion USD, an increase of 13.5% over the
same period in 2021. The trade balance maintained a trade surplus for 7 consecutive
years and Vietnam has become one of the prestigious investment destinations of global
countries with realized FDI highest in the last 5 years.
With these achievements, Vietnam is considered by many international organizations as a
bright spot in the region and is expected to develop further in 2023 despite the potential
signs of recession in the global economic context. Global growth is still expected to slow
down, at 2.7% (according to the IMF) or even only 1.7% (according to the World Bank)
and possibly the lowest rate in recent decades due to the economic crisis. The crisis
continues and intertwines.
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
The global recession has clearly impacted the Port and Logistics industry, especially from
the third quarter of 2022. According to statistics from the United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global merchandise trade in 2022 is estimated at
US$25 trillion, a sharp decrease of 12.3% over the same period and much lower than that
of the same period last year, an impressive increase of 22.4% in 2021.
Domestically, with the flexible management decisions of the Government and Ministries,
the port operation and logistics industry of Vietnam has steadily risen above the
"backward waves" of the global recession to achieve the encouraging results. According
to the Vietnam Maritime Administration, the total volume of goods through the seaports
of the country in general and container cargo in particular was estimated at 733.18
million tons and 25.09 million TEUs, up 4% and 5% respectively over the previous year
of 2021. In shipping activities, although the total volume of transport and container
volume carried out by Vietnam's shipping fleet is estimated at only 128.7 million tons and
2.76 million Teu, down 13% and 5% compared to the same period. Compared with the
time in 2019 before the pandemic, the position of Vietnam's fleet in 2022 has increased
significantly, from 4th to the top 3 in ASEAN and from 30th to the 22nd in the same
period, according to UNCTAD.
Statistics indicate that there are 30,000 logistics enterprises operating across the country,
including over 5,000 enterprises involved in international logistics and 69 large and
medium-sized logistics centers attracting investment in various fields. Moreover, 89% of
the enterprises are Vietnamese enterprises with small and medium scales, while 10% are
joint ventures and 1% are 100% foreign-owned enterprises providing cross-border
logistics services.
According to the World Bank’s ranking, Vietnam now ranks 64 out of 160 countries in
terms of logistics development and ranks 4th in the ASEAN region after Singapore,
Malaysia and Thailand.
According to Agility, one of the world’s leading logistics service providers, in 2022,
Vietnam ranked 11th among the group of 50 global emerging logistics markets. The
annual growth rate of Vietnam’s logistics industry reaches 14-16%, with a scale of 40-42
billion USD a year.