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Printed in the United States of America

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 17 16 15 14 13
To Bill Harkness—energetic, generous, and innovative
educator, guide, and friend—who launched our careers
in statistics and continues to share his vision.
and
To our students, from whom we continue to learn,

and who teach us how to be better teachers.
Brief Contents
1 Statistics Success Stories and Cautionary Tales 1

2 Turning Data into Information 14
3 Relationships Between Quantitative Variables 68
4 Relationships Between Categorical Variables 112
5 Sampling: Surveys and How to Ask Questions 148
6 Gathering Useful Data for Examining Relationships 190
7 Probability 220
8 Random Variables 264
9 Understanding Sampling Distributions: Statistics
as Random Variables 316
10 Estimating Proportions with Confidence 376
11 Estimating Means with Confidence 412
12 Testing Hypotheses about Proportions 460
13 Testing Hypotheses about Means 510
14 Inference about Simple Regression 562
15 More about Inference for Categorical Variables 598
16 Analysis of Variance 634
17 Turning Information into Wisdom 670
vi
Contents
Preface xiii
1 Statistics Success Stories and Cautionary Tales 1

1.1 What Is Statistics? 1
1.2 Eight Statistical Stories with Morals 2
1.3 The Common Elements in the Eight Stories 7
In Summary Box 8
Key Terms 9
Exercises 9
2 Turning Data into Information 14

2.1 Raw Data 15
2.2 Types of Variables 17
2.3 Summarizing One or Two Categorical Variables 20
2.4 Exploring Features of Quantitative Data with Pictures 24
2.5 Numerical Summaries of Quantitative Variables 37
2.6 How to Handle Outliers 44
2.7 Bell-Shaped Distributions and Standard Deviations 46
Applets for Further Exploration 52
Key Terms 54
In Summary Boxes 54
Exercises 54
3 Relationships Between Quantitative Variables 68

3.1 Looking for Patterns with Scatterplots 70
3.2 Describing Linear Patterns with a Regression Line 74
3.3 Measuring Strength and Direction with Correlation 82
3.4 Regression and Correlation Difficulties and Disasters 89
3.5 Correlation Does Not Prove Causation 94
Key Terms 99
In Summary Boxes 99
Exercises 100
vii
viii Contents
4 Relationships Between Categorical Variables 112

4.1 Displaying Relationships Between Categorical Variables 113
4.2 Risk, Relative Risk, and Misleading Statistics about Risk 118
4.3 The Effect of a Third Variable and Simpson’s Paradox 123
4.4 Assessing the Statistical Significance of a 2 2 Table 124
Key Terms 136
In Summary Boxes 136
Exercises 136
5 Sampling: Surveys and How to Ask Questions 148

5.1 Collecting and Using Sample Data Wisely 149
5.2 Margin of Error, Confidence Intervals, and Sample Size 152
5.3 Choosing a Simple Random Sample 156
5.4 Additional Probability Sampling Methods 159
5.5 Difficulties and Disasters in Sampling 166
5.6 Pitfalls in Asking Survey Questions 170
Key Terms 179
Exercises 180
6 Gathering Useful Data for Examining

Relationships 190
6.1 Speaking the Language of Research Studies 191
6.2 Designing a Good Experiment 196
6.3 Designing a Good Observational Study 205
6.4 Difficulties and Disasters in Experiments and Observational
Studies 207
Key Terms 212
Exercises 212
7 Probability 220
7.1 Random Circumstances 221
7.2 Interpretations of Probability 223
7.3 Probability Definitions and Relationships 228
7.4 Basic Rules for Finding Probabilities 233
7.5 Conditional Probabilities and Bayes’ Rule 239
7.6 Using Simulation to Estimate Probabilities 245
7.7 Flawed Intuitive Judgments about Probability 247
Key Terms 254
Exercises 254
Contents ix
8 Random Variables 264

8.1 What Is a Random Variable? 265
8.2 Discrete Random Variables 268
8.3 Expectations for Random Variables 273
8.4 Binomial Random Variables 277
8.5 Continuous Random Variables 283
8.6 Normal Random Variables 285
8.7 Approximating Binomial Distribution Probabilities 294
8.8 Sums, Differences, and Combinations of Random Variables 298
Key Terms 306
Exercises 306
9 Understanding Sampling Distributions:
Statistics as Random Variables 316
9.1 Parameters, Statistics, and Statistical Inference 317
9.2 From Curiosity to Questions about Parameters 319
9.3 SD Module 0: An Overview of Sampling Distributions 324
9.4 SD Module 1: Sampling Distribution for One Sample
Proportion 328
9.5 SD Module 2: Sampling Distribution for the Difference in Two
Sample Proportions 333
9.6 SD Module 3: Sampling Distribution for One Sample Mean 336
9.7 SD Module 4: Sampling Distribution for the Sample Mean of
Paired Differences 341
9.8 SD Module 5: Sampling Distribution for the Difference in Two
Sample Means 344
9.9 Preparing for Statistical Inference: Standardized Statistics 346
9.10 Generalizations beyond the Big Five 351
Key Terms 359
Exercises 360
10 Estimating Proportions with Confidence 376
10.1 CI Module 0: An Overview of Confidence Intervals 377
10.2 CI Module 1: Confidence Intervals for Population
Proportions 383
10.3 CI Module 2: Confidence Intervals for the Difference in Two
Population Proportions 392
10.4 Using Confidence Intervals to Guide Decisions 396
Key Terms 402
Exercises 402
x Contents
11 Estimating Means with Confidence 412

11.1 Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Means 413
11.2 CI Module 3: Confidence Intervals for One Population
Mean 421
11.3 CI Module 4: Confidence Intervals for the Population Mean of
Paired Differences 429
11.4 CI Module 5: Confidence Intervals for the Difference in Two
Population Means (Independent Samples) 434
11.5 Understanding Any Confidence Interval 444
Key Terms 448
Exercises 449
12 Testing Hypotheses about Proportions 460

12.1 HT Module 0: An Overview of Hypothesis Testing 462
12.2 HT Module 1: Testing Hypotheses about a Population
Proportion 473
12.3 HT Module 2: Testing Hypotheses about the Difference in Two
Population Proportions 486
12.4 Sample Size, Statistical Significance, and Practical
Importance 491
Key Terms 499
Exercises 499
13 Testing Hypotheses about Means 510

13.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Tests for Means 511
13.2 HT Module 3: Testing Hypotheses about One Population
Mean 512
13.3 HT Module 4: Testing Hypotheses about the Population Mean
of Paired Differences 521
13.4 HT Module 5: Testing Hypotheses about the Difference in Two
Population Means (Independent Samples) 525
13.5 The Relationship Between Significance Tests and Confidence
Intervals 534
13.6 Choosing an Appropriate Inference Procedure 536
13.7 Effect Size 540
13.8 Evaluating Significance in Research Reports 545
Key Terms 550
Exercises 550
Contents xi
14 Inference about Simple Regression 562

14.1 Sample and Population Regression Models 563
14.2 Estimating the Standard Deviation for Regression 569
14.3 Inference about the Slope of a Linear Regression 572
14.4 Predicting y and Estimating Mean y at a Specific x 576
14.5 Checking Conditions for Using Regression Models for
Inference 581
Key Terms 589
Exercises 589
15 More about Inference for Categorical Variables 598

15.1 The Chi-Square Test for Two-Way Tables 599
15.2 Methods for Analyzing 2 2 Tables 610
15.3 Testing Hypotheses about One Categorical Variable:
Goodness-of-Fit 617
Key Terms 622
Exercises 623
16 Analysis of Variance 634

16.1 Comparing Means with an ANOVA F-Test 635
16.2 Details of One-Way Analysis of Variance 644
16.3 Other Methods for Comparing Populations 650
16.4 Two-Way Analysis of Variance 654
Key Terms 660
Exercises 660
17 Turning Information into Wisdom 670

17.1 Beyond the Data 671
17.2 Transforming Uncertainty Into Wisdom 674
17.3 Making Personal Decisions 674
17.4 Control of Societal Risks 677
17.5 Understanding Our World 679
17.6 Getting to Know You 681
17.7 Words to the Wise 683
Exercises 685
Appendix of Tables 689
References 697
Answers to Selected Odd-Numbered Exercises 701
Index 723
xii Contents
Instructors: the Supplemental Topics are available on the book companion

website, or print copies may be custom published.
supplemental topic 1 Additional Discrete Random Variables

S1.1 Hypergeometric Distribution
S1.2 Poisson Distribution
S1.3 Multinomial Distribution
Key Terms
Exercises
supplemental topic 2 Nonparametric Tests of Hypotheses

S2.1 The Sign Test
S2.2 The Two-Sample Rank-Sum Test
S2.3 The Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test
S2.4 The Kruskal-Wallis Test
Key Terms
Exercises
supplemental topic 3 Multiple Regression

S3.1 The Multiple Linear Regression Model
S3.2 Inference about Multiple Regression Models
S3.3 Checking Conditions for Multiple Linear Regression
Key Terms
Exercises
supplemental topic 4 Two-Way Analysis of Variance

S4.1 Assumptions and Models for Two-Way ANOVA
S4.2 Testing for Main Effects and Interactions
Key Terms
Exercises
supplemental topic 5 Ethics

S5.1 Ethical Treatment of Human and Animal Participants
S5.2 Assurance of Data Quality
S5.3 Appropriate Statistical Analyses
S5.4 Fair Reporting of Results
Key Terms
Exercises
Preface
A Challenge
Before you continue, think about how you would answer the question in the first bullet,
and read the statement in the second bullet. We will return to them a little later in this
preface.
• What do you really know is true, and how do you know it?
• The diameter of the moon is about 2160 miles.
What Is Statistics, and Who Should

Care?
Because people are curious about many things, chances are that your interests include
topics to which statistics has made a useful contribution. As written in Chapter 17,
“information developed through the use of statistics has enhanced our understanding
of how life works, helped us learn about each other, allowed control over some societal
issues, and helped individuals make informed decisions. There is almost no area of
knowledge that has not been advanced by statistical studies.”
Statistical methods have contributed to our understanding of health, psychology,
ecology, politics, music, lifestyle choices, business, commerce, and dozens of other
topics. A quick look through this book, especially Chapters 1 and 17, should convince
you of this. Watch for the influences of statistics in your daily life as you learn this
material.
How Is This Book Different?

Two Basic Premises of Learning
We wrote this book because we were tired of being told that what statisticians do is bor-
ing and difficult. We think statistics is useful and not difficult to learn, and yet the ma-
jority of college graduates we’ve met seemed to have had a negative experience taking
a statistics class in college. We hope this book will help to overcome these misguided
stereotypes.
Let’s return to the two bullets at the beginning of this preface. Without looking, do
you remember the diameter of the moon? Unless you already had a pretty good idea or
have an excellent memory for numbers, you probably don’t remember. One premise of
this book is that new material is much easier to learn and remember if it is related
to something interesting or previously known. The diameter of the moon is about the
same as the air distance between Atlanta and Los Angeles, San Francisco and Chicago,
London and Cairo, or Moscow and Madrid. Picture the moon sitting between any of
those pairs of cities, and you are not likely to forget the size of the moon again.
Throughout this book, new material is presented in the context of interesting and use-
ful examples. The first and last chapters (1 and 17) are exclusively devoted to examples
xiii
xiv Preface
and case studies, which illustrate the wisdom that can be generated through statistical
studies.
Now answer the question asked in the first bullet: What do you really know is true,
and how do you know it? If you are like most people, you know because it’s something
you have experienced or verified for yourself. It is not likely to be something you were
told or heard in a lecture. The second premise of this book is that new material is easier
to learn if you actively ask questions and answer them for yourself. Mind on Statistics
is designed to help you learn statistical ideas by actively thinking about them. Throughout
most of the chapters there are queries titled Thought Questions. Thinking about these
questions will help you to discover and verify important ideas for yourself. Most chapters
have a section called “Applets for Further Exploration” that will guide you through
hands-on activities and present you with a “Challenge Question.” Working through the
applets in those sections will help you actively engage with the material. We encourage
you to think and question, rather than simply read and listen.
New to This Edition

• New Case Studies and Examples were written for the new edition. Data in exam-
ples, case studies, and exercises also have been updated to the latest information
available.
• Many new figures that help illustrate concepts have been added.
• Most chapters have a new section called “Applets for Further Exploration” that ac-
company applets on the course website. Students are guided through a process of
hands-on exploration, and then presented with a “Challenge Question” to solidify
their understanding of the concepts.
• Chapter 7 (Probability) has been reorganized to focus on the use of simple tools for
understanding probability and solving probability problems.
• The number of In Summary boxes has been increased, and the boxes are placed
more consistently throughout the chapters.
• The language has been tightened and simplified whenever possible.
Text Features
Chapters 9 to 13, which contain the core material on sampling distributions and statis-
tical inference, are organized in a modular, flexible format. There are six modules for
each of the topics: sampling distributions, confidence intervals, and hypothesis testing.
The first module presents an introduction and the remaining five modules each deal
with a specific parameter, such as one mean, one proportion, or the difference in two
means. Chapter 9 covers sampling distributions, Chapters 10 and 11 cover confidence
intervals, and Chapters 12 and 13 cover hypothesis testing.
This structure emphasizes the similarity among the inference procedures for
the five parameters discussed. It allows instructors to illustrate that each procedure
covered is a specific instance of the same process. We recognize that instructors have
different preferences for the order in which to cover inference topics. For instance,
some prefer to first cover all topics about proportions and then cover all topics about
means. Others prefer to first cover everything about confidence intervals and then
cover everything about hypothesis testing. With the modular format, instructors can
cover these topics in the order they prefer.
To aid in the navigation through these modular chapters, the book contains
color-coded, labeled tabs that correspond to the introductory and parameter mod-
ules. The table below, also found in Chapter 9, lays out the color-coding system as
well as the flexibility of these new chapters. In addition, the table is a useful course
planning tool.
Preface xv
Organization of Chapters 9 to 13
Chapter 9: Chapter 10: Chapter 11: Chapter 12: Chapter 13:
Sampling Confidence Confidence Hypothesis Hypothesis
Parameter Distributions (SD) Intervals (CI) Intervals (CI) Tests (HT) Tests (HT)
0. Introductory SD Module 0 CI Module 0 HT Module 0

Overview of Overview of con- Overview of hy-
sampling fidence intervals pothesis testing
distributions
1. Population SD Module 1 CI Module 1 HT Module 1
Turning Data into Information 23
Proportion (p) SD for one sam- CI for one popula- HT for one popu-
ple proportion tion proportion Figure 2.3 illustrates the same resultslation proportion
with a bar graph. This bar graph shows the
frequencies of responses on the vertical axis and the possible response categories on
2. Difference in two SD Module 2 CI Module 2 the horizontal axis. The display makes itHT Module
obvious 2 number of students who
that the
population proportions SD for difference chose 7 was more than double that of theHT
CI for difference for
next difference
most popular choice. We also see that
very few students chose either 1 or 10.
(p1 p2) in two sample in two population in two population
proportions proportions proportions
60
3. Population mean (µ) SD Module 3 CI Module 3 50 HT Module 3

4 (11.1%)
SD for one sam- 5 (9.5%) CI for one popula- 40 HT for one popu-
3 (11.6%)
Frequency
ple mean tion mean 30
lation mean
6 (12.1%) 2 (4.7%)
4. Population mean of SD Module 4 CI Module 41 (1.1%) 20 HT Module 4
paired differences (µd) SD for sample CI for population
10 (3.2%) HT for population
10
mean of paired mean of paired
9 (7.4%) mean of paired
0
differences 7 (29.5%) differences 1 2 3 4 5 6 differences
7 8 9 10
8 (10.0%)
Number choice
5. Difference in two SD Module 5 CI Module 5 HT Module 5
Figure 2.2 Pie chart of numbers picked Figure 2.3 Bar graph of numbers picked
population means SD for difference CI for difference HT for difference
(µ1 µ2) in two sample in two population in two population
means E x a m p l E 2 . 4 Revisitingmeans
Example 2.2: Nightlight and Nearsightedness Figuremeans
2.4 illustrates
the data presented in Example 2.2 with a bar chart showing, for each lighting group,
Watch a video explanation of this
the percentage that ultimately had each level of myopia. This bar chart differs
example at the course website, http://
from the one in Figure 2.3 in two respects. First, it is used to present data for two
www.cengage.com/statistics/Utts5e.
categorical variables instead of just one. Second, the vertical axis represents percent-
To add to the flexibility
ages insteadof topic with
of counts, coverage, Supplemental
the percentages Topics
for myopia status 1 to
computed 5 on discrete
separately
within each lighting category. Within each sleeptime lighting category, the percent-
random variables, nonparametric
ages add to 100%. tests, multiple regression, two-way ANOVA, and eth-
ics are now available for use in both print and electronic formats. Instructors, please
Myopia level
contact your sales representative
100 to find out how None
these chapters can be custom pub-
lished for your course.
Percent with each myopia level
Some
High
Student Resources: Tools for Learning 50
There are a number of tools provided in this book and beyond to enhance your learning
of statistics. 0
Dark Nightlight Full light
Lighting conditions before age 2
Tools for Conceptual Understanding

Figure 2.4 Bar chart
lighting in infancy
for myopia and nighttime
Thought Questions appear T H O U G H T Q U E S T I O N 2 . 4 Redo the bar graph in Figure 2.4 using counts instead of percentages.
throughout each chapter to The necessary data are given in Table 2.3. Would the comparison of frequency of myo-
pia across the categories of lighting be as easy to make using the bar graph with
encourage active thinking and counts? Generalize your conclusion to provide guidance about what should be done
questioning about statistical ideas. in similar situations.*
Hints are provided at the bottom
of the page to help you develop *HINT: Which graph makes it easier to compare the percentage with myopia for the
this skill. three groups? What could be learned from the graph of counts that isn’t apparent from
the graph of percentages?
Unless otherwise noted, all content on this page is © Cengage Learning.
Probability 227
There are very few restrictions on personal probabilities. They must fall between
0 and 1 (or, if expressed as a percent, between 0% and 100%). They must also fit together
in certain ways if they are to be coherent. By coherent, we mean that your personal prob-
xvi Preface ability of one event doesn’t contradict your personal probability of another. For exam-
ple, if you thought that the probability of finding a parking space downtown on Saturday
afternoon was .20, then to be coherent, you must also believe that the probability of not
finding one is .80. We will explore some of these logical rules later in this chapter.
New! Applets for Further
How We Use Personal Probabilities
Exploration sections provide
opportunities for in-class or People routinely base decisions on personal probabilities. This is why committee deci-
sions are often so difficult. For example, suppose a committee is trying to decide which
independent hands-on exploration
candidate to hire for a job. Each member of the committee has a different assessment
of key statistical concepts. The of the candidates, and they may disagree on the probability that a particular candidate
applets that accompany this would best fit the job. We are all familiar with the problem that juries sometimes have
feature can be found on the when trying to agree on someone’s guilt or innocence. Each member of the jury has his
book’s companion website. or her own personal probability of guilt and innocence. One of the benefits of commit-
tee or jury deliberations is that they may help members to reach some consensus in
their personal probabilities.
Personal probabilities often take relative frequencies of similar events into account.
For example, the late astronomer Carl Sagan believed that the probability of a major as-
teroid hitting Earth soon is high enough to be of concern. “The probability that the Earth
will be hit by a civilization-threatening small world in the next century is a little less than
one in a thousand” (Arraf, 1994, p. 4, quoting Sagan). To arrive at that probability, Sagan
obviously could not use the long-run frequency definition of probability. He would have
to use his own knowledge of astronomy combined with past asteroid behavior.
Note that unlike relative frequency probabilities, personal probabilities assigned to
unique events are not equivalent to proportions or percentages. For instance, it does
not make sense to say that major asteroids will hit approximately 1 out of 1000 Earths
in the next century.
Supplemental Notes boxes S u p p l e m e n ta l n o t e

provide additional technical a philosophical Issue about probability
discussion of key concepts. There is some debate about how to represent probability when an outcome has been deter-
mined but is unknown, such as if you have flipped a coin but not looked at it. Technically, any
particular outcome has either happened or not. If it has happened, its probability of happen-
ing is 1; if it hasn’t, its probability of happening is 0. In statistics, an example of this type of sit-
uation is the construction of a 95% confidence interval, which was introduced in Chapter 5 and
which we will study in detail in Chapters 10 and 11. Before the sample is chosen, a probability
statement makes sense. The probability is .95 that a sample will be selected for which the
computed 95% confidence interval covers the truth. After the sample has been chosen, “the
die is cast.” Either the computed confidence interval covers the truth or it doesn’t, although
we may never know which is the case. That’s why we say that we have 95% confidence that a
computed interval is correct, rather than saying that the probability that it is correct is .95.
7.2 Exercises are on page 255.
I N S U M M A RY Interpretations of Probability
Investigating Real-Life
The relative frequency Questions
probability of an outcome is the proportion of times the
outcome would occur over the long run. Relative frequency probabilities can be
determined by either of these methods:
Updated! Relevant Examples
• Making an assumption about the physical world and using it to define relative
form the basis for discussion in frequencies
each chapter and walk you through • Observing relative frequencies of outcomes over many repetitions of the
real-life uses of statistical concepts. same situation or measuring a representative sample and observing relative
frequencies of possible outcomes
The personal probability of an outcome is the degree to which a given individual
believes it will happen. Sometimes data from similar events in the past and other
knowledge are incorporated when determining personal probabilities.
question led respondents to focus on “events” rather than “changes,” and the invention
of the computer did not readily come to mind. When it was presented as an option,
however, people realized that it was indeed one of the most important events or
changes during the past 50 years.
In summary, there are advantages and disadvantages to both approaches. One
compromise is to ask a small test sample to list the first several answers that come
to mind, and then use the most common of those. These could be supplemented
with additional answers, like “invention of the computer,” that may not readily come to
mind.
Remember that as the reader, you have an important role in interpreting the results.
You should always be informed as to whether questions were asked in open or closed
Preface
form; if the latter, you should be told what the choices were. You should also be told
xvii
5.6 Exercises are on pages 185–186. whether “don’t know” or “no opinion” was offered as a choice in either case.
Updated! Case Studies apply C a s e s t u DY 5 . 2 No Opinion of Your Own? Let Politics Decide
statistical ideas to intriguing news
This is an excellent example of how people will respond to sur- 500 randomly selected adults. The first group was asked: “President
stories. As the Case Studies are vey questions when they do not know about the issues, and how Clinton [a Democrat] said that the 1975 Public Affairs Act should
developed, they model the the wording of questions can influence responses. In 1995, the
Washington Post decided to expand on a 1978 poll taken in
be repealed. Do you agree or disagree?” The second group was
asked: “The Republicans in Congress said that the 1975 Public
statistical reasoning process. Cincinnati, Ohio, in which people were asked whether they Affairs Act should be repealed. Do you agree or disagree?”
Turning Data into Information 21
“favored or opposed repealing the 1975 Public Affairs Act” Respondents were also asked about their party affiliation.
(Morin, 1995, p. 36). There was no such act, but about one-third Overall, 53% of the respondents expressed an opinion
Table 2.2 Sex and Seatbelt Use by Twelfth-Graders When Driving
of the respondents expressed an opinion about it. about repealing this fictional act! The results by party affiliation
In February 1995, the Washington Post added this ficti-
Always Most Timeswere striking:
SometimesFor the Clinton
Rarely version,
Never 36% ofTotal
the Democrats but
tious question to its weekly poll of 1000 randomly
Female selected
915 re- 276 only 16% 167of the Republicans
84 agreed
25 that the act should be re-
1467
spondents: “Some people say the 1975 Public Affairs Act should (18.8%) pealed. (11.4%)
(62.4%) For the “Republicans
(5.7%) in Con gress” version,
(1.7%) (100%) 36% of the
be repealed. Do you agree or disagree Malethat it should
771 be re- 302 Republicans
247 but only 165
19% of the 90Democrats1575
agreed that the act
(49.0%)
pealed?” Almost half (43%) of the sample expressed an opin- (19.2%) should be (15.7%)
repealed. In(10.5%)
April 2013,(5.7%) (100%)
the Huffington Post repeated
ion, with 24% agreeing that it shouldSource:be repealed and 19% this poll, replacing “Clinton” with “Obama.” The results were
http://www.cdc.gov/HealthyYouth/yrbs/index.htm.
disagreeing! similar. (Sources: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/11/

The Post then tried another trick that produced even more survey-questions-fiction_n_2994363.html and http://big.assets.
Frequency and Relative Frequency
disturbing results. This time, they polled two separate groups of huffingtonpost.com/toplines_full.pdf)
In general, the distribution of a variable describes how often the possible responses
occur.
• A frequency distribution for a categorical variable is a listing of all categories along
Original Journal Articles for with their frequencies (counts).
I N s u M M a RY • APitfalls in asking survey Questions
relative frequency distribution is a listing of all categories along with their rela-
many of the Examples and tive frequencies (given as proportions or percentages).
Any of the following can lead to biased responses in a survey:
Case Studies can be found It is commonplace to give the frequency and relative frequency distributions together,
• done
Either
as was in deliberate
Table 2.1. or unintentional bias in question wording
on the companion website on • Desire of respondents to please the person carrying out the survey
CourseMate, http://www.cengage. ExamplE 2.2 Lighting the Way
• Asking to Nearsightedness
questions of uninformed Aindividuals
survey of 479 children found that those
who had slept with a nightlight or in a fully lit room before the age of 2 had a higher
Read the original source on the
com/statistics/Utts5e. By reading companion website, http://www
• Unnecessary
incidence complexity
of nearsightedness in the
(myopia) wording
later of questions
in childhood (Sacramento Bee, May 13,
.cengage.com/statistics/Utts5e. 1999,•pp. A1, A18).
Order The raw
of asking data for each child consisted of two categorical variables,
questions
the original, you are given the each with three categories. Table 2.3 gives the categories and the number of children
• Respondent confidentiality and anonymity concerns leading to false response
falling into each combination of them. The table also gives percentages (relative fre-
opportunity to learn much more quencies)or falling
nonresponse.
into each eyesight category, where percentages are computed within
about how the research was each nighttime lighting category. For example, among the 172 children who slept in
darkness, about 90% (155/172 .90) had no myopia.
conducted, what statistical
Table 2.3 Nighttime Lighting in Infancy and Eyesight
methods were used, and
Slept with: No Myopia Myopia High Myopia Total
what conclusions the original Darkness 155 (90%) 15 (9%) 2 (1%) 172 (100%)
researchers drew. Nightlight 153 (66%) 72 (31%) 7 (3%) 232 (100%)
Getting Practice
Full Light 34 (45%) 36 (48%) 5 (7%) 75 (100%)
Total 342 (71%) 123 (26%) 14 (3%) 479 (100%)

Source: From Nature 1999, Vol. 399, pp. 113–114. (See p. XXX for complete credit.)
The pattern in Table 2.3 is striking. As the amount of sleeptime light increases, the
incidence of myopia also increases. However, this study does not prove that sleeping
Basic Exercises, comprising 25% with light actually caused myopia in more children. There are other possible explana-
tions. For example, myopia has a genetic component, so those children whose parents
of all exercises found in the text, have myopia are more likely to suffer from it themselves. Maybe nearsighted parents
are more likely to provide light while their children are sleeping.
focus on practice and review.
These exercises, found under the T H O U G H T Q U E S T I O N 2 . 3 Can you think of possible explanations for the observed relationship
header Skillbuilder Exercises and between use of nightlights and myopia, other than direct cause and effect? What
additional information might help to provide an explanation?*
appearing at the beginning of each
exercise section, complement the *HINT: Reread Example 2.2, in which one possible explanation is mentioned. What data
would we need to investigate the possible explanation mentioned there?
conceptual and data-analysis
exercises. Basic exercises give
you ample practice for these key
concepts.
xviii Preface
Relevant conceptual and data

analysis Exercises have been
added and updated throughout
the text. All exercises are found at
the end of each chapter, with
corresponding exercise sets
written for each section and
chapter. You will find well more
than 1500 exercises, allowing for
ample opportunity to practice key
concepts.
Answers to Selected Odd-

Numbered Exercises, indicated
by bold numbers in the Exercise
sections, have final answers or
partial solutions found in the back
Answers to Selected
of the text for checking your
answers and guiding your thinking
Odd-Numbered Exercises
on similar exercises. Most odd-
numbered exercises have The following are partial or complete answers to the exercises numbered in bold in the text.
answers in back of the book. Chapter 1 2.7 Sex and self-reported fastest ever driven speed. b. Students
in a statistics class. c. Answer depends on whether interest
1.1 a. 150 mph. b. 55 mph. c. 95 mph. d. 1/2. e. 51. is in this class only or in a larger group represented by this
1.3 a. .00043. b. .00043. c. Rate is based on past data; risk uses class.
past data to predict an individual’s likelihood of developing 2.9 Population summary if we restrict interest to fiscal year 1998.
cervical cancer. Sample summary if 1998 value is used to represent errors in
1.5 a. All teens in the U.S. at the time the poll was taken. other years.
b. All teens in the U.S. who had dated at the time the poll was 2.11 a. Categorical. b. Quantitative. c. Quantitative.
taken. d. Categorical.
1.7 a. All adults in the U.S. at the time the poll was taken. 2.13 a. Categorical. b. Ordinal. c. Quantitative
1 2.15 a. Explanatory is score on the final exam; response is final
b. 5 .031 or 3.1%. c. 30.9% to 37.1%. course grade. b. Explanatory is gender; response is opinion
"1048
about the death penalty.
1.9 a. 400.
2.17 a. Not continuous. b. Continuous. c. Continuous.
1.11 a. Self-selected or volunteer sample. b. No; readers with strong
2.19 a. Support ban or not; categorical. b. Gain on verbal
opinions will respond.
and math SATs after program; quantitative.
Technology for Developing Concepts

and Analyzing Data
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com home page, search for the ISBN of your title (from the back cover of your book)
Preface xix
using the search box at the top of the page. This will take you to the product page where
the following free companion resources can be found:
• Interactive teaching and learning tools including:
• Conceptual applets to accompany almost all chapters, with instructions and
exercises
• Flashcards
• Videos of examples from throughout the text
• and more
• Activities manual with engaging activities to accompany every chapter (except
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• Step-by-Step technology manuals for TI-84 Plus calculators, Microsoft® Excel®,
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• Downloadable datasets (in ASCII as well as the native file formats for each software
and calculator model covered by the Step-by-Step manuals)
• Original journal articles for select Examples and Case Studies, where you can learn
much more about how the research was conducted, what statistical methods were
used, and what conclusions the original researchers drew
Step-by-Step technology manuals, written specifically for Mind on Statistics, Fifth

Edition, walk you through the statistical software and graphing calculator—step by
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• Microsoft Excel
• Minitab
• SPSS®
• JMP®
Note: These technology manuals are available in electronic formats. Instructors, con-
tact your sales representative to find out how these manuals can be custom published
for your course.
JMP is a statistics software for Windows and Macintosh computers from SAS, the mar-
ket leader in analytics software and services for industry. JMP Student Edition is a
streamlined, easy-to-use version that provides all the statistical analysis and graphics
covered in this textbook. Once data is imported, students will find that most proce-
dures require just two or three mouse clicks. JMP can import data from a variety of
formats, including Excel and other statistical packages, and you can easily copy and
paste graphs and output into documents.
JMP also provides an interface to explore data visually and interactively, which will
help your students develop a healthy relationship with their data, work more efficiently
with data, and tackle difficult statistical problems more easily. Because its output pro-
vides both statistics and graphs together, the student will better see and understand the
application of concepts covered in this book as well. JMP Student Edition also contains
some unique platforms for student projects, such as mapping and scripting. JMP func-
tions in the same way on both Windows and Mac platforms and instructions contained
with this book apply to both platforms.
Access to this software is available with new copies of the book. Students can pur-
chase JMP standalone via CengageBrain.com or www.jmp.com/getse.
128 Chapter 4
Because the p-value is less than .05, we can say that the relationship is statistically sig-
nificant. The null hypothesis can be rejected in favor of the alternative. We can infer that
xx Preface sex and opinion about banning cell phone use while driving are related variables in the
population represented by these students. Note: The chi-square value is greater than
3.84 for these data, and that fact could also have been used to declare statistical
significance.
Minitab, Excel, TI-84, and SPSS

Tips in the text offer key details MINITAB tip Computing a Chi-Square Test for a Two-Way Table
• If the raw data are stored in columns of the worksheet, use Stat + Tables +
on the use of technology. Cross Tabulation and Chi-Square. Specify a categorical variable in the “For
rows” box and a second categorical variable in the “For columns” box. Then
click the Chi-Square button and select “Chi-Square analysis.”
• If the data are already summarized into counts, enter the table of counts
(excluding totals) into columns of the worksheet, and then use Stat + Tables
Relationships
+ Chi-Square Test (Table in Worksheet). In theBetween
dialog Quantitative
box, specifyVariables
the col- 99
umns that contain the counts.
Applet
EXCEL tip 3.5: Thecan
The p-value Influence of Outliers
also be computed on Regression
by using Microsoft Excel. The function
and) provides
CHIDIST(x,df Correlation
the p-value, where x is the value of the chi-square statistic
and df is a number called “degrees of freedom,” which will be explained later in this
What tobook.
Do: TheMoveformula
one of for
the df is (#around
points of rowsto2make
1)(#itofancolumns 2 1).
outlier. Try For instance,
creating an outliercorre-
that leaves
spondingthetoslope
the approximately
information in theExample
same, but4.13,
increases
df 5the
(2 correlation.
2 1)(2 2 1)Then
5 1, try
andcreating
the an
p-value outlier that leaves the 5
is CHIDIST(7.659,1) slope approximately
.005649, or about the
.006same but adds
as given an outlier to the histo-
by Minitab.
gram of residuals. Try moving the point around in various ways, and observe the effect
on the slope, correlation and histogram of residuals.
Expected
What to Notice: Counts:
An outlier What
that fits with topattern
the linear Expectof the remainder of the data doesn’t change
the slope much, but does increase the correlation. An outlier in y but not in x creates an
Whenoutlier
theinNull Hypothesis
the residuals, but does notIs Truethe slope very much.
change
A chi-square statistic measures the overall difference between the observed counts,
Challenge Question: Will an outlier in the x direction (with a value of x much higher than the others) always
the actual counts in the data, and a set of expected counts, which are the hypothetical
be an outlier in the histogram of residuals? Explain why or why not.
Tools for Review counts that would occur if the two variables are not related. Thus the first step in the
calculation of a chi-square statistic is to determine a table of expected counts.
formula Calculating Expected Counts

Key Terms at the end of each Key Terms The expected count for each cell can be calculated as
chapter, organized by section, can Section 3.1 Row total 3 Column
regression total
line, 74, 75, 76, 82 Section 3.3
be used as a “quick-finder” and scatterplot, 70, 74 Total n for

simple table
linear regression, 75 correlation, 82
explanatory variable, 70 slope of a straight line, 75, 77, 82 Pearson product moment correlation, 82
as a review tool. response variable, 70
Do not round off the expected counts to whole numbers. It is standard practice to
intercept of a straight line, 75, 77 correlation coefficient, 82, 89
retain at least two digits after the decimal point.
dependent variable, 70 y-intercept, 75, 77 squared correlation (r ), 86
2
y variable, 70 predicted y (y^ ), 76 proportion of variation explained by x, 86

x variable, 70 estimated
A table of counts has the following twosum
y, 76
expected of squares total (SSTO), 87
properties:
positive association, 70, 71, 74 predicted value, 76, 82 sum of squares due to regression (SSR), 88
linear relationship, 70, 71, 74 1. Theredeterministic relationship,
is no association 77 the two variables. For instance, there are no dif-
between Section 3.4
negative association, 71, 74 statistical
ferences relationship,
between 77
the conditional percentages in the rows
54l n oChapter
S u p p l e m e n ta te 2 extrapolation, 90 (or columns) of a
nonlinear relationship, 71 tableprediction
of expected counts.
error, 79, 82
interpolation, 90
curvilinear relationship,
Verifying Conditions for the test 71, 74 2. The expected
residual, 79,counts
82 in each row and column sum to the same 90 totals as the
A sufficiently Key Terms
outlier,
large,73representative observed
least numbers.
squares, 80
influential observations,
sample is necessary to use the least squares line, 80 Section 3.5

Section 3.2
method in this section.
SectionUse 2.1 the chi- The second distribution,
least property
squares can21,be26
regression, utilized
80, 82 when computing mode,
causation the 32 correlation,
versus
expected 94–95
counts. For a
regression analysis, 74
square statistic only
raw when
data, at
15 least unimodal, 32 for one of the
regression
52 equation, 75, 76 232 table, it
74, are sum offrequency
is only necessary
squared distribution,
errors to
(SSE), 21
use80,
the88formula for expected counts
three of the fourChapter
expected 2 counts
variable, 15, 17
5 or more prediction,
and no expected75 counts cells. The other three relative frequency
expected distribution,
counts can be21found usingbimodal, 33
subtractions that make the
are less than 1. observational unit,TI-84 16, 17 sums in each row outcome variable, 22
and column match the corresponding sums for the observed
TIp Numerical Summaries of a Quantitative Variable Section 2.5
observation, 16 counts. pie chart, 22–24
range, 40, 44, 50
• First, store the data values into a list, say L1.
sample size, 16 bar graph, 22–24
• Press STAT . Scroll horizontally to CALC, and then scroll vertically to 1:1-Var
interquartile range (IQR), 40, 44
In Summary Boxes
dataset, 16 Stats and press ENTER2.4
Section . Assuming that the data are in list L1,standard
completedeviation
the ex- (sample), 40, 44,
census, 16 pression as 1-Var Stats L1, followed by ENTER . The display will show
47–50, 52the mean,
dotplot, 24, 28, 30–31
sampleScatterplots,
Interpreting data, 16, 1774 standard deviation (both sample and population),
Correlation the 89
Coefficient, five-number summary,
the sample size,five-number
the sum ofsummary, 41 sum of x2 values.lower quartile, 41
24,the
x-values, and
population
Interpreting data, 16,Line,
a Regression 17 77 Regression and Correlation Difficulties, 94
upper quartile, 41
location, 26, 36
statistic,
Regression Line16, 17 82
Basics, quartiles, 41
spread, 26, 36
parameter, 16 resistant statistic, 42
shape, 26, 32, 36, 40
descriptive I Nstatistics,
SUMMA 16RY Bell-Shaped Distributions and Standard Deviation percentile, 43
outlier, 26, 27–29, 39–40, 42, 44
Updated! In Summary boxes Section 2.2 • The standard median,
deviation26, 37, 40, 44
measures the variability among data values.
g 1xi 2 reasons
Section 2.6
serve as a useful study tool, categorical variable, 17, 20 mean, 26, 37, 40, 44
x22 for outliers, 45, 46
• The formula for sample standard
variability, 26 deviation is s 5
appearing at appropriate points ordinal variable, 17, 20
quantitative variable, 18, 20 • For bell-shaped histogram, 28,68%
30, of
Å n21
35the data values fall within 1Section 2.7
data, about standard devia-
to enhance key concepts and measurement variable, 18 stem-and-leaf
tion of the mean plot, 28,
either way, about 95%31–32 bell-shaped curve, 46
fall within 2 standard deviations of the
normal of distribution (or curve), 46
calculations. More In Summary numerical variable, 18
continuous variable, 18
mean either way,
mean either way.
and about
boxplot, 99.7%42–43,
29, 31–32, fall within
box-and-whisker plot, 29, 33
44 3 standard deviations
variance
the
(sample), 47
boxes have been added for this explanatory variable, 19, 20 • A standardized score, also
symmetric called a32z-score, measures how farpopulation
(shape), mean, 48
a value is from
the mean in terms of standard deviations. population standard deviation, 48
edition. response variable, 19, 20 skewed (shape), 32
skewed to the right, 32 Empirical Rule, 49, 50, 51
Section 2.3 standardized score, 50, 52
skewed to the left, 32
frequency, 21 z-score, 50, 52
a p p l e T s f obell-shaped,
r furThe 32r e x p l o r a T I o n
relative frequency, 21
For each of the applets, follow the instructions for what to do and what to notice, then
In Summary Boxes
try to answer the Challenge question. Additional instructions and questions are given
at the applet website, www.cengage.com/statistics/Utts5e.
Applet 2.1: How the Number of Intervals

Basic Data Concepts, 17 Affects
Numerical Summaries of Quantitative Variables, 44
Possible Reasons for Outliers and Reasonable Actions, 46
Types of Variables and Roles for Variables, 20
a Histogram Bell-Shaped Distributions and Standard Deviation, 52
Bar Graphs for Categorical Variables, 24
Using Visual Displays
What to toDo:
Identify Interesting
Move the sliderFeatures of histogram to change the number of intervals comprising the
below the
Quantitative Data, 36 histogram.
What to Notice: The shape of the dataset is hard to determine if the histogram uses too few or too many
Exercises intervals.
Challenge Question: Is the optimal number of intervals for using a histogram to assess shape the same for
Denotes that the dataset is available on the companion website, 2.2 Suppose that in a national survey of 620 randomly selected
any data set? Explain.
http://www.cengage.com/statistics/Utts5e, but is not required to adults, each person is asked how important religion is to him
solve the exercise. or her (very, fairly, not very), and whether the person favors
Applet 2.2: The Influence of Outliers on Mean
or opposes stricter regulation of what can be broadcast on
Bold exercises have answers in the back of the text.
and Median network television.
a. How many variables are measured in this survey?
Section 2.1
What to Do: Drag the green dot to change its value. b. What is an observational unit in this study?
Skillbuilder Exercises c. What is the sample size for this survey?
What to Notice: The mean changes every time you move the green dot, but the median does not.
2.1 A sociologist assembles a dataset consisting of the poverty 2.3 In each situation, explain whether it would be more appro-
Challenge
rate, per Question:
capita income, If serious crime
the values in arate,
dataand teen2, birth
set are priate
5, 6, 8, and 11, and the to
11treat the observed
is replaced with a data as a sample from a larger
smaller
rate for the 50 states of value, how States.
the United small can that value be without changing the median
population from
or as data what
from theitwhole
was population.
originally?
a. How many variables are in this dataset? a. An instructor surveys all the students in her class to de-
b. What is an observational unit in this dataset? termine whether students would prefer a take-home
c. What is the sample size for the dataset? exam or an in-class exam.
Dataset available but not required Bold exercises answered in the back
Another random document with
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"For mercy's sake, no!" ejaculated Foster, looking at the children with no loving eye. "Dogs an'
childer be the garden's curse!"
"Oh, hush!"
Mrs. Inglefield looked really shocked.
"Of course they will have their own bit of ground and keep to it. But you were a boy once, Foster, and
I'm sure you were always fond of flowers."
"He's a nassy old man!" said Noel in a loud voice; and his mother, taking him by the hand, left the
kitchen garden and returned to the house.
In the afternoon it was a very happy little party that set out down the village. Diana and Chris were
losing their shyness, and were able to chatter as freely as Noel to this new mother of theirs. It was of
no use to point out to them the pretty thatched cottages, the geese and ducks upon the green, the
lambs at play in the fields, the cows going home to be milked, the pale primroses appearing in the
hedges, and the budding fresh green on every tree and bush. All these were delightful no doubt
when there was nothing else on hand. With three shillings almost burning a hole in their pockets,
was it likely that anything could keep them from their goal?
Along a green lane, up a hill, and then a very pretty whitewashed cottage appeared inside a big gate.
Glass greenhouses stretched away on a sunny slope behind it. Mrs. Inglefield made her way to one
of these, for she recognized Mr. Henry Sharpe, an old man with a white beard, standing at the door
speaking to a workman.
And when he saw her, he came hurrying towards her with outstretched hands.
"Why, if it isn't Miss Bessie! Beg pardon, ma'am, but I do forget your married name. You are always
Miss Bessie to me."
"I love to be called by the old name," said Mrs. Inglefield with her happy laugh, "and here is my little
flock waiting to be made acquainted with you. They are going to start gardens, Henry, but they can
make their own choice. Do you remember how I used to tear up to you when my pocket-money was
due? What a lot of money I spent on seeds and flowers!"
"You were a born gardener, that you were!"
"Well, I haven't had a nice garden in India; we have moved about so much."
"Mums," said Chris, "may we see the flowers and choose?"
"Aye, come along then, and tell me what you want. Fruit to eat, flowers to smell, or shrubs to grow?"
"Is your daughter still with you?" asked Mrs. Inglefield.
"She is. She married, was left a widow in the war, and came back to me. My grandson is a big boy
and goes to school. If I may say so, ma'am, you've a garden round you worth cultivating. Young fruit
trees want a lot of training to make them fruit-bearing!"
Mrs. Inglefield looked at her children and then at the old man.
"You are right," she said, "and I'm going to try to do it, and if I get into difficulties I shall come to you. I
think I will leave my children with you, and go into the cottage and have a talk with Bessie."
Mr. Sharpe took the children down between the houses to see the rows and rows of spring flowers
and seedlings which were all coming on. He was very different to Foster. He loved children, and they
all chattered away to him as if they had known him all their life.
By and by, he brought three very happy children back to their mother. Chris and Diana held fat
packets in their hands. Noel had his in his pocket, but his blue eyes were shining mysteriously. They
had each made their choice, and certainly Noel's choice seemed the strangest of all.
CHAPTER III
The Christmas Tree
Old Mr. Sharpe insisted upon the children coming into the cottage and having some refreshment. It
was too early for tea, but he produced some home-made ginger beer, and some currant cake. His
daughter, a sad-faced young woman, had traces of tears on her cheeks. She had been talking about
the young husband killed in the war. But she smiled at the children's eagerness and enthusiasm for
the garden.
"Oh, Mums, such rows and rows of daffodils and narcissus! Isn't it a pity it's too late to plant them
now?"
"And, Mums, you should have seen the flowers in the hot-houses, but none of them will grow out of
doors now!"
"And the little trees, all coming out in pink and white flowers!"
It was not until they were on the way home that Mrs. Inglefield was told of the purchases.
Diana had chosen nothing but flowers. She had a tiny rose tree coming up the next day to be placed
in the middle of her bed.
"It will be the queen," she said with the dreamy look in her grey eyes that her mother loved to see;
"and I shall have her ladies-in-waiting all round her: Lady Pansy, and Lady Blue Cornflower, and
Lady Pink Verbena, and Lady Snapdragon, and Lady Yellow Eschscholtzia; and then her little pages
will be Tom Thumb Nasturtiums. Don't you think my bed will be lovely, Mums?"
"Lovely, darling. You have done very well, I think. What is Chris's choice?"
"I've got mustard and cress, and radishes," he said sturdily, "and one strawberry plant. And two red
geraniums are coming to me when it's time to put them in the ground. And I've a lot of mixed sweet-
peas, and one little gooseberry bush."
"You have a lot for your money. First rate," said his mother. "What has Noel got?"
Diana looked at Chris, and they both giggled.
Noel looked at them angrily, and turned to his mother:

"I'm going to have one fing only, but it's quite big, it's what we never had in India, and what I've
always been wanting ever since you read me about it in my fairy book."
"I believe I can guess," his mother said: "it's a Christmas tree."
"Yes, that's just what it is. And Mr. Sharpe and me choosed for ever so long before we found a big
one, and it's coming to-morrow."
"But, my darling, won't it be rather a dull garden with only that tree in it?"
"It won't be dull to me," said Noel. "I love it. And it will be ready for next Christmas. It's been
wondering when its turn was coming to be taken away, it didn't know it was coming into this lovely
garden with me to love it. Don't you r'ember the fir tree that was always finking and being
disappointed? I mean to tell mine exac'ly what's going to happen to him."
"You're a funny darling," said his mother, but she kissed him and said no more.
"Mr. Sharpe gave him some flower seeds as a present," said Chris, "but he says he isn't going to put
them in his garden."
"No, my Christmas tree won't like them. He likes plenty of room all to himself, and I shall put those
seeds where I want to."
Mrs. Inglefield looked at him a little perplexedly.
"You're a funny boy," she said again; "but if your Christmas tree will make you happy, I shall say
nothing against it. You've made your choice, so it's all right."
Noel seemed quite content. But he refused to tell Diana and Chris his plan about his seeds. All three
of them wanted to go into the garden after tea, but Nurse refused to let them do it.
"It is too cold, and rain is beginning to fall. You must just stay in the nursery."
"We can go to Mums," said Diana.
"No, you can't. The mistress is going to rest. She's been at it all day long."
So they tried to make themselves happy in this new nursery of theirs. Chris got out his paint-box and
began to colour the picture in a story-book of his. Diana got out her beloved sheets of paper and
commenced a fresh story under the inspiration of this fresh home. Noel got a chair and knelt up at
the window, looking out upon the English scene with keen, observant eyes.
Suddenly he looked round:
"What are those green lumps all over the church garden?" he asked.
"Those are graves, of course," said Chris, "where people are buried when they die."
"Why do they crowd into the church garden? Haven't they gardens of 'er own?"
"Oh, that wouldn't be proper," said Chris.
"I s'pose," Noel went on thoughtfully, "they try and get as near to God as they can, poor fings! But
they aren't really vere at all, it's only their bodies. It isn't a very pretty garden: God ought to have a
better one."
Chris made no reply.

Noel was always dressed first, and then Nurse went to Diana. It was a lovely sunny morning. Directly
Nurse's back was turned, Noel slipped downstairs very quietly: then he ran out into the garden,
opened the little gate that led to the churchyard and began his operations. Going from one green
mound to another, he made a hole with his finger in the middle of each, opened his precious packet
of seeds and dropped one or two seeds in it. Then he carefully covered it up with earth, and went on
to another. Mr. Sharpe had put several varieties of seed into his packet. There was mignonette,
aster, lobelia, and a few other summer flowers. Noel knew nothing about the names or the flowers,
but he went on steadily planting seed by seed, and by and by a clergyman came out of the church.
He looked at the small boy in surprise. He was a young, cheerful-looking man with a very quick,
decided manner.
"Now, what on earth are you doing here?" he asked. "And who are you? We've never seen each
other before, have we?"
"I'm Noel. Who are you?"
"I'm John Wargrave, the parson. And this place belongs to me."
Noel looked at him stolidly.
"This is God's garden," he said, "and that place you've come out of is God's house. It all belongs to
Him."
"So it does, sonny. You've corrected me. But it isn't nice to make a playground of the churchyard.
What are you doing?"
"I'm not playing. I'm working very hard."
Noel spoke in an injured tone. Mr. Wargrave looked at the packets of seeds in his hands, and
wondered. Then Noel explained himself.
"I've made myself into God's gardener, and I'm going to make flowers come all over His garden. God
loves flowers. Mums told me He did. It's an ugly garden now: not half as nice as ours."
"Do you love God?" Mr. Wargrave asked gently.
Noel nodded.
"It's a very nice thought, my boy, but a lot of people own a bit of ground here. The graves belong to
them, and they wouldn't like you to meddle with them. Have you many seeds left?"
Noel spread out three small packets.
"Well, look here. There is a rose tree over the church porch. It is in a bed of its own, and you can
plant the rest of your seeds there. I'll come and help you do it now."
Noel was quite willing. Mr. Wargrave produced a trowel from a little room at the back of the church,
and they made quite a good job of it. He soon found out who Noel was and where he lived, and he
said he was coming to call on Mrs. Inglefield very soon. They were good friends when they parted,
and Noel trotted upstairs to his nursery breakfast. Nurse scolded him for his dirty hands, but
supposed he had been playing in the garden. He did not tell anyone what he had been doing.
But later in the day when his Christmas tree arrived, and Diana and Chris were busy with their
gardens, he was asked where his seeds were.
"God has got them," he said solemnly; "I've given them to Him."
He would say nothing more.
Diana remarked to Chris:
"I can't think why Noel is so religious. He isn't a good boy at all, and yet he is always talking about
God."
"He's too little to know he oughtn't to do it," said Chris decidedly.
"Why oughtn't we to do it, I wonder?" said Diana musingly. "The people in the Bible talked about
God."
"It isn't respectful," said Chris: "rev'rent, I mean. Granny always hushed us about religious things."
"Yes, but Mums talks about them quite easily: she doesn't whisper."
Chris gave it up.
"I only know Noel wouldn't do it if he was amongst a lot of other boys. They'd laugh at him."
"We laugh at him, but he doesn't care."
"He's a most cocky little beggar!"
The Christmas tree almost overshadowed Noel's small garden. It looked strangely out of place there,
and would do so even more when surrounded by spring and summer flowers. Chris and Diana, up in
the medlar tree the next day, watched Noel standing, hands in pockets, in front of it. A pert saucy
robin came and perched on the topmost branch. Noel stood so still that he did not frighten it away,
but he commenced to talk to it.
"You're sitting on my tree. I don't know if you know it. I'm a Chris'mas child and the tree is a
Chris'mas tree, and we bofe belong to the best day in the whole year, and that's Jesus Christ's
birfday and mine. It will take a long time to come this year, for we haven't got to the summer yet, but
I'm going to be patient, and as for my tree, he is finking all the time of the wonderful day that's
coming to him: the glorious, beautiful day when he'll be dressed from his head to his feet all over with
lovely shining fings of glory, and crowds of chil'en and people will be dancing round him and looking
up at him as if—as if he was a king. So, Mr. Robin, if you sit on his branches, you must re'mber
you're almost sitting on a king!"
"Isn't he a funny boy?" whispered Diana to Chris.
Then Noel went on talking to his tree:
"I'm going to call you Firry; you must have a name. I hope you're happy in this garden; you haven't
got any bruvvers to talk to, but I'd rather talk alone than to Chris. He never understands, and so you
must be like me and like best to be alone. And if the trees wiv flowers on laugh at you, tell them that
when winter comes—the English winter—they'll be dead and gone, and you'll be alive and glorious, it
will be Chris'mas, and the very happiest day in the whole year. I don't want you to be unhappy, Firry. I
cried for the poor little Chris'mas tree in Germany that was forgotten when Chris'mas Day was over. I
shall never forget you. That's why I brought you here. I'll talk to you all the summer and tell you
what's coming to you, and after Chris'mas you shall come back here and live and be happy and get
ready for the nex' Chris'mas."
"He's talking drivel!" said Diana, and then she sprang down from the tree with a shout, and Noel,
after giving a violent start, walked away and didn't go near his Christmas tree again that day.
The first Sunday came.
To Chris and Diana church was no treat; yet they looked forward to the novelty of going to a strange
church and seeing strange people. To Noel this was a momentous day. He had never been to church
in England yet. In London, for several reasons, he had not been taken there.
It was a bright sunny morning. Noel was dressed in his white sailor suit. It was a new one, and he felt
rather self-conscious in it. As Mrs. Inglefield walked down the garden and through the little gate into
the churchyard, she felt proud of her children. Diana had slipped her hand into her mother's, but
Chris and Noel were having a tussle the other side of her. Each felt he ought to be nearest to his
mother. When they reached the church door, Mrs. Inglefield looked down upon two hot, rather angry
faces, and she said immediately:
"Now, boys, I can't have this. I am going to have Diana on one side of me in church, and Noel the
other. Chris must be content to be the outside one. He shall sit near the aisle, for he is my eldest
son, and that is where his father would sit if he were with us."
Chris brightened up immediately. They took their seats in the middle aisle, not very far from the
pulpit. There was a good congregation, and the service was a hearty one. Mr. Wargrave, the young
vicar, preached so earnestly and simply that even Noel could understand him. His big blue eyes
seemed to be taking in everybody and everything. He was very still; he did not fidget as much as
Chris did, and when they came out of church, he looked up at his mother with shining eyes:
"When I grow up, I shall have a white dress on, and stand up in church and preach like that man. I
shall be a padre when I grow up."
Mrs. Inglefield looked down upon him tenderly.
"You couldn't be anything better, Noel," she said.
And then an old lady came up to them and shook hands with Mrs. Inglefield in a delighted way.
"I heard you were coming back to these parts. How's your mother? Still wedded to her town life? And
are these your children? Bring them to tea with me to-morrow. Four o'clock. Good-bye. So glad to
welcome you."
And then she bustled off and got into a car and was whirled away from them before Mrs. Inglefield
had time to say a word. She turned to her children.
"That is Lady Alice Herbert. She's an old friend of Granny's. She lives at the Hall, and her husband,
General Herbert, is a great invalid."
"And we're all going to tea with her. What fun!" said Chris.
In the afternoon the three children went into the garden whilst their mother rested; but by and by Mrs.
Inglefield heard a little tap at the door, and Noel walked in. He did not look very happy.
"Am I asturbing you, Mummy?" he asked in his most angelic tone.
"No, darling, I am not sleeping; come and sit down by the couch here. What have you been doing?"
"I don't like those uvver two," said Noel, shaking his head with a heavy frown. "They're always
playing and talking outside me."
"You mean without you; but you see they've not been accustomed to have a third in their games. I
hope you're nice to them?"
"I don't want to have nuffin' to do with them. They laugh at me about the Chris'mas tree. You and me,
Mummy, can be two as we've always been, and they can be just a two away from us."
"Oh, my darling," said Mrs. Inglefield, half laughing, yet with a perplexed face, "you mustn't talk so!
This comes of bringing you up away from them. You all belong to me and to each other, and we must
be a very happy little family. I can't talk to you any more now, so if you want to stay with me, get a
picture-book from my table over there. There's that one you love about the boys in the Bible."
Noel got the book, and drawing a stool up by his mother's side, was quite happy till tea-time.
Chris and Diana appeared in very good spirits, and if Noel was rather silent, they did not seem to be
impressed by it.
They were full of anticipation of going to Lady Alice Herbert's to tea the following day, and talked
about it till bedtime.
Very great was their disappointment the next morning when their mother told them that she had
received a letter from Lady Alice saying that, as the General was not very well, she would not ask the
children, but only herself.
Diana pouted, Chris cried "What a shame!" and Noel stumped up and down the room in real anger.
"Never mind, chicks, she will ask you another day, I am sure, and perhaps it is just as well, for it
looks like rain."
And rain it did in an hour's time. The children played contentedly in the nursery all the morning. They
had their early dinner downstairs with their mother, and afterwards she took them up to her boudoir,
and read a story to them till it was time for her to go off to the Hall. The car came for her a little
before four o'clock, and the children watched her depart with envious eyes. They waved their hands
to her, standing on the doorstep till they could see her no more, and then very reluctantly they went
back to their nursery.
"What is there to do?" said Chris discontentedly as he put his hands deep in his jacket pockets and
stood gazing out of the window at the driving rain and sodden garden.
"I'm going to finish my story, and then I'll read it to you," said Diana happily, as she drew her chair up
to the table and produced some crumpled sheets of paper out of her pocket. Diana always carried
her story about with her, in case of sudden inspiration seizing her.
"Read it to us first, and finish it afterwards," said Chris with a grin.
Noel looked at him contemptuously, and Chris caught the look and resented it.
"What are you going to do, Baby?" he asked.
Noel's eyes flashed.
"I aren't going to play with you," he said, and then, he marched out of the room.
A few minutes later a little figure in sailor cap and overcoat was plodding down the path to the gate,
in the rain.
It was Noel. He felt that he could not be shut up in the nursery with his brother and sister all the
afternoon, and suddenly thought that he would go and see Mr. Wargrave. Then he changed his mind.
He would go into the church if the door was unlocked. There were a lot of things he wanted to see
and understand there.
Half an hour later the house was being searched by Nurse for the truant. When she missed his cap
and coat she was very angry with Chris and Diana.
"I was only ironing in the kitchen; you might have kept him quiet and out of mischief, the two of you,"
she said. "He's a child, I'll say that, but if he's wandering about in this rain, he'll be laid up with cold,
with his Indian constitootion."
"He's most likely in the garden talking to his fir tree, or in the churchyard," said Chris. "Shall I go and
look for him and bring him in?"
"Put on your mackintosh then, and be quick about it," said Nurse. "'Tis your fault he's wandered out, I
consider. You're none too kind to him, either of you!"
CHAPTER IV
A Nursery Entertainment
Chris was delighted to have an excuse to go out in the rain. He sped away, down the garden, but
there were no signs of Noel, then into the churchyard. When he got there, he found the young vicar,
Mr. Wargrave, in the church porch. He had the door ajar, and to Chris's mystification seemed to be
peeping through the opening.
"Have you seen my little brother?" he asked him.
"Hush!" said Mr. Wargrave, turning round, then he smiled at Chris.
"Don't make a noise," he said, "but have a look at him."
Chris peeped into the church. He caught sight of Noel's fair curly head at once. It was just above the
edge of the pulpit, and two small arms were waving in the air. This was what he heard:
"And so you see, my frens, God wants you to be good. And my tex' is 'Fight the good fight,' and
that's Satan, and I'll say good afternoon to you now, and mind you come next Sunday and I'll preach
about the wind and rain trying to drown the boat. Amen."
Chris giggled loudly. Mr. Wargrave shut the door.
"We won't disturb him," he said.

"But he's no business there," Chris said; "Mums would be horrified. Noel thinks he can do anything
he likes. He's going to be a clergyman, he says, so he's practising. He oughtn't to play in the church."
"It isn't play," said Mr. Wargrave. "Would you two boys like to come over to the Vicarage with me? My
brother Ted would like to see you on a wet afternoon like this."
"I'd love it," said Chris; "but Nurse sent me to fetch Noel in. He's run away."
"I'll step across with you and ask Nurse to spare you for an hour. I live close here, you know."
Then he opened the church door with a little clatter. Noel darted down out of the pulpit. He looked
very uncomfortable when he saw his brother's head peeping from behind Mr. Wargrave.
But he adopted a very careless air as he came down the aisle towards them.
"Are you come to have a—a service?" he asked the young vicar.
"No, I was coming to fetch a book in the vestry," Mr. Wargrave said; "and I want you and your brother
to come back to the Vicarage to tea with me. We are going to your house to ask if you may. Perhaps
you can get the permission while I get my book, Chris."
Chris sped away as fast as his legs could carry him. Noel stood still in the porch, looking out into the
rain with grave thoughtful eyes. Mr. Wargrave was only a moment getting his book, and he joined
him before Chris came back.
Putting his hand on his shoulder, he said, smiling:
"You'll be a preacher by and by, but don't hurry. We have to learn a lot before we can teach others."
Noel's cheeks became hot and red.
"Did you see anyone in the pulpit?" he asked in a whisper.
Mr. Wargrave nodded.
"I foughted I was quite alone. I only pretended the peoples. I just wanted to see if I could do it."
"Yes, yes, I understand. We'll forget it."
Mr. Wargrave pitied the small boy's distress and confusion. Chris reappeared, very breathless and
happy.
"Nurse says we can come," he said. And then the three of them walked down the road a very little
way, and turned in at a big iron gate with a thick shrubbery and a drive, and arrived at an old grey
stone Vicarage, with small casement windows and walls covered with creepers.
The vicar took them straight through a long narrow hall to a room at the back of the house
overlooking a very pretty garden. It was a cosy room. A bright red carpet was on the floor, and a
blazing fire in the grate. There were bookshelves and many pictures lining the walls. On a big red-
and-white chintz-covered couch by the fire, reclined a boy with a white face and a cheerful smile. He
was a big boy, about fifteen or sixteen. Chris and Noel looked at him in awe.
"Two small neighbours, Ted," said Mr. Wargrave; "the other side of the church. They've come to tea.
I'll go and tell Mrs. Hurcombe. You amuse them till I come back. I have my churchwarden waiting to
see me."
He left the room. Chris and Noel stood by the side of the couch feeling a little shy of this strange boy,
but when he looked at them and laughed, they laughed too.
"Don't think me an awful frump tucked up on a couch like this. It's only for a year. I was at school and
hurt my back in the gym. Like to see how I spend my time?"
He drew a table by the side of his couch nearer, and showed them on a wooden tray a complete set
of dolls' furniture. There was a most beautiful little cabinet of polished wood, which opened and shut
its doors, six chairs with red leather seats, a four-post bedstead, a polished square table, and two
chests of drawers.
"Oh!" cried Chris. "Did you make these all yourself?"
"Yes, and a lot more. They go to an Arts and Crafts Depot and sell like old boots. And I made them
myself with the help of a book only, so I feel rather swanky over them."
"I wish Dinah could see these," said Chris.
"Here's something you may like better."
He produced a little canoe, and then a tiny tram and a wheelbarrow and a cart.
"It passes the time," he said.
"Don't you never go out of doors?" asked Noel, looking at him gravely.
"Not often. I have to be wheeled out in a flat pram, and I hate it. But when summer comes, I can lie
on a rug on the lawn and then I shall feel first rate."
Chris was fingering the toys lovingly.
"I wish I was clever," he said with a little sigh.
"Can you make houses?" asked Noel eagerly. "Could you make a church?"
"He's mad on church," said Chris; "we've only just dragged him out of it. He's been in India, and
doesn't know England."
"Tell us about India," said Ted, smiling at Noel.
Noel launched forth at once, waving his hands and getting quite excited as he described his home in
India and the native servants, and all the pets he had kept out there. Chris openly yawned, but Ted
was interested, and when Mr. Wargrave returned all three boys were talking fast and freely. Tea was
brought in by a very smiling housekeeper, and they had a merry time.
But Chris watched Ted gravely, and at last he said to him:
"I couldn't laugh like you do if I had to lie on my back all day long. I'd have to die straight off if I
couldn't jump up and run about."
"That's how I felt first of all," said Ted simply. "But of course it doesn't say much for your pluck if you
can't face pain. And I came to see that I must make the best of it, and that I could be thankful that I
wasn't blind or deaf and dumb, or covered over with loathsome sores. And—I—well, I've been helped
along by remembering that there's a suffering corps in God's army, as well as a fighting corps."
Chris looked at him with big eyes.

Here was a big boy talking about God. He could not understand it.
But after tea, he was made very happy by having a lesson in wood-carving from Ted.
Noel went off with Mr. Wargrave to his study.
He sat on the deep window-ledge there, and swinging his legs, told the vicar all about his Christmas
tree.
Mr. Wargrave was a good listener.
"I think it's splendid," he told him. "And then at Christmas perhaps you'd be able to make numbers
happy. If I had a tree like that, I would ask a lot of children out of the village, and there are some in
the Union, about a mile off on the high road. I'm the chaplain there, and I always feel sorry for the
children. They don't have many pleasures. If you love Ted, he'll make you a lot of toys for your tree."
"Oh, will he?" Noel was radiant. "And I'll have a very big party. Mums will let me. I'll have all the
children who live here. I do wish it was Christmas time."
"Oh, don't wish that. We have the lovely summer coming first. All of us are happy in summer-time.
The flowers and the bees and butterflies, and the birds and squirrels and rabbits—they all love the
warm sunshine. And you will, too."
"I don't like it when the sun is very hot," said Noel thoughtfully; then his thoughts took another turn.
"What's a hypercrit?"
"Someone who pretends to be what he is not."
Noel frowned.
"And a 'cocky beggar'? I thoughted beggars were poor ragged men who asked for money: they were
in India."
Mr. Wargrave smiled.
"Oh, that's a boy's expression for anyone who thinks a lot of himself. I suppose your brother has
been calling you that?"
"If you speak about God at all, you're a hypercrit," said Noel. "I 'spect Chris doesn't know what it
means: it's too long a word for him. I'll tell him so. I don't pretend half as much as they do; they're
always pretending in their games. Why is it wrong to talk about God?"
"It isn't wrong; it ought to be the natural thing with every one of us. If we love anyone very much, we
can't help talking about them. But—"
Mr. Wargrave hesitated; then he went on:
"Boys and girls, and grown-up people too, are shy sometimes of telling people what they feel deeply
in their hearts; and when children play about with each other, they keep their thoughts about God
and heaven to themselves, and don't quite understand anybody talking freely about it. I'm not saying
they are right. But it makes us more reverent if we speak about God very gravely, almost in a
whisper."
Noel listened and nodded his head.
"I'll try."
And then he caught sight of a case of butterflies, and for the next half-hour hung over it entranced,
whilst Mr. Wargrave talked about butterflies and their ways.
When Chris and Noel's visit was over, they went home and described all the glories of the Vicarage
to Diana, who was quite curious about them.
She was wild to see the dolls' furniture.
"I don't see why I shouldn't go straight in to-morrow. I'll ask Mums if I may. That ill boy would be very
glad to see me. Mums was only saying the other day that visiting sick people was a very nice thing to
do."
When Mrs. Inglefield returned home, three eager children met her in the hall.
She was quite pleased that the boys had gone to tea at the Vicarage.
"Lady Alice was telling me about that poor boy. It is a dreadful trial for him to be laid up like that for a
year, or perhaps longer."
"But he's quite happy," said Chris. "He laughs like anything!"
"Yes, he has a brave cheerful spirit. I shall be very glad for you to know him. He must be a nice boy."
Two or three days afterwards, Diana got her chance. Mr. Wargrave came to call, and spoke to her in
the hall as he was leaving. Diana was always outspoken.
"I don't want to be rude," she said, "but I'm just dying to see the dolls' furniture at your house. Could
you ask me to, do you think? I wouldn't expect tea. I wouldn't be as mean as that, but just to see
them."
"You shall come in now," he said, smiling, "if your mother will let you. Ted will be only too delighted to
show you all his toys."
Mrs. Inglefield, who was standing by, gave her permission, and Diana danced off, and was a good
hour away. She came back to the nursery with glowing eyes.
"He not only makes toys," she said to the boys emphatically, "but he makes poetry! He said some to
me!"
The boys were impressed. Ted and his doings were much discussed amongst them for the following
days.
The weather kept them indoors a good deal. It was rain and wind every day, and the nursery was a
small room for three active children. One morning Nurse, sitting at her work there, was visited by
Mrs. Budd.
Chris and Noel were busy in a corner with their bricks, Diana was finishing her story, but as she
scribbled off the last sentence she caught a fragment of conversation between Nurse and her visitor.
"I always felt she would be dull here. She misses the master, of course, and she's been accustomed
to a life in India. I feel fair worried when I sees her so quiet knitting for the boys, and tears in her eyes
all the time."
"'Twill be better in the fine weather when there's plenty of gentry round her to keep her from
dullness."
Diana shut up her papers and went over to the window. She had what Nurse called her "thinking cap"
on!
After their early dinner she called the boys to her and said:
"Look here, I promised to keep Mums from feeling dull. It's come upon her, and we've got to do
something."
"What?" asked Chris.
"We'll give her an entertainment," said Diana grandly. "And I'll tell her it's coming, so that will take
away the dullness, to feel it's coming. We'll do it after tea."
"What can we do?" asked Chris helplessly.
"I've thought it all out. I'll read her my story. It's finished, and she's never heard any of my stories. It's
awfully exciting. And you and Noel can learn something to recite, like we did with Miss Carr to
Granny once."
"We can dance," said Chris, romping round the room, "and dress up! Oh, that will be the thing,
Dinah!"
Mrs. Inglefield was feeling rather lonely that afternoon. She had been writing to her husband, and
now she was knitting socks for Chris, and thinking about his schooling. She was in her boudoir.
Presently she heard a sharp rattat at her door, a little giggle, and then a note was pushed through
the bottom of the door.
She picked it up and opened it.
"OUR DEAR MUMS,—"
"We're sorry you are dull, but we are not going to let you be
any more. At half-past five we invite you to our Grand Entertainment.
Tickets free. The performance will be thrilling."
"YOUR LOVING CHILDREN."
"P.S.—It will be done in the Nursery—punctule."
So Mrs. Inglefield had enough to keep her expectant and smiling. She heard a good deal of noise
overhead for the next hour or so. But punctually at half-past five she presented herself at the nursery
door.
It was opened by Noel, who had a pink paper cap on his head, and his body and legs all wound
round and round with coloured handkerchiefs and ribbons.
He gave her a very low bow and led her to Nurse's armchair, which was draped in an old red shawl.
It was the seat of honour. Then she was presented with a programme.
AFTERNOON ENTERTAINMENT
An acrobatic exhibishon.
Two gentlemen's duel.
An Authoresses story.
Beautiful Poem resited by motor-car and horse.
General Dance and Wind up.
All can join.
A row of chairs divided the audience from the performers.
The entertainment opened by Chris standing on his head in the corner, and Diana balancing a doll's
tray of tea-things on his feet. Catastrophe was saved by her snatching the tray away, as his feet
began to shake.
Then Noel and Chris had a fencing bout with two hoop sticks. Mrs. Inglefield drew a long breath
when it was over and neither combatant was hurt. The next item on the programme was:
"An Authoresses story."
Diana made her appearance in one of Nurse's best gowns. A wreath of ivy was round her head. She
had sheets of paper in her hand and commenced to read in a high sing-song voice.
The story was about a miserable ragged little girl in London who was given sixpence and a kiss by a
beautiful lady one afternoon when she was selling matches in the streets. The lady's face and dress
was described with much detail. Mrs. Inglefield had no difficulty in recognizing herself as the lady.
The little girl's name was Sally, and she fell in love with this lady and used to follow her round in
London every day, only at a distance. At night she dreamt of her. And then one day the lady was
nearly run over by a motor. Sally dashed into the middle of the road and saved her, but got knocked
down herself and had her leg broken. Then the lady burst into tears at her bravery, and told her
coachman, who had arrived on the scene, to take her home in her carriage. She was carried to the
"most beautiful house in London." Her bedroom was "covered with pink satin curtains and cushions
all over the place." Sally was placed in bed, and a doctor sent for who mended her broken leg.
"But suddenly Mrs. Field fell on her knees by the bed and seized the broken leg:"
"'It is her, my long-lost daughter,' she cried. 'I know the scar which she had as a baby. My nurse lost
her one day when she was wheeling her pram in Kensington gardens!'"
"And all was true, and Sally's leg mended very soon, and she never had to go back to the old woman
who made her sell matches, but she lived with her darling mother ever after. And she grew up and
married a relation of the Royal Family. But she always remembered her ragged time and gave
money to match-girls. This is the moral and the end."
There was much applause when the young authoress sat down.
Then the children retired into the night nursery. After a time, with a rush and a fierce snorting noise,
Chris tore backwards and forwards several times.
"A motor-car!" said Mrs. Inglefield, clapping her hands.
Then Noel entered, galloping up and down and whinnying so loud that Mrs. Inglefield called out very
quickly:
"A horse!"
And then he and Chris stood together and recited the following poem:
CHRIS. "I shriek and everybody flies!

I tear along beneath the skies,
I stop as quickly, for I feel
My master's hand upon the wheel."
NOEL. "I trot along the hard high road,

To journey slowly is my mode.
We want to see, to feel, to smile,
To scent the beauty of each mile."
CHRIS. "Past meadows, villages I fly,

No time to see as I go by!
The wind, the air is all I feel,
Beside the hand upon the wheel."
NOEL. "My master's hand is on my rein,

His eyes are in the country lane.
I canter on up hill, down dale,
Through grassy fields and lovely vale."
CHRIS. "I scorch up hills, I fly along,

My warning 'honk' is all my song.
Towns, rivers, sea, all pass away.
A hundred miles we do each day."
NOEL. "But cars can't hunt, or ride at will

Through woods, or up untrodden hill,
Nor soak their souls in beauty fair,
That's only done through my brown mare."
CHAPTER V
Lesson Days
"Splendid!" cried Mrs. Inglefield enthusiastically, applauding with her feet and hands. "May I ask who
is the author of that poem?"
"Ted wrote it," said Diana. "He said it to me when I went over to see him, so I made him write it down,
and Chris and Noel have been learning it as fast as they could all the afternoon."
"I think you are all extremely clever," said Mrs. Inglefield. "I am quite proud of you."
"And which do you like best, Mums, a horse or motor?" asked Noel.
"It's easy to see which the poet liked best," said Mrs. Inglefield, laughing. "I think I like them both; if I
were rich, I would keep a car to take me long distances, and a horse to ride when I wanted to enjoy
the country."
"And now we'll have our dance," said Diana.
There was a great bustle then, clearing the chairs away. Chris had the honour of dancing with his
mother, and Diana danced with Noel. They turned their small gramophone on, and all enjoyed
themselves. When they at last had to stop from sheer fatigue, Mrs. Inglefield made a little speech in
which she thanked them all most gratefully for their successful entertainment.
"It has kept your dullness away," said Diana with a satisfied smile. "I'm so glad. I promised you I
would keep you from being dull."
Her mother did not remember the promise, but she was touched by her little daughter's thought for
her.
"Did you like Dinah's story?" Chris asked.
"Very much. It was a sweet little story. I did not know I had a daughter who was an authoress. What a
proud mother I shall be when her first book is published!"
Diana got rosy red. That was the dream and desire of her heart. She lay in bed at night imagining the
time when a real book of hers should be in her hand fresh from the publishers, with her name in big
letters across its title page.
A little later that evening they all went down to the boudoir. They always spent an hour before their
mother's dinner with her there.
Diana and Noel were looking at a beautiful book of engravings together which belonged to their
grandmother and had been left in the cottage. Diana was weaving stories out of every picture, and
Noel listened to her with the greatest interest. Chris crept up close to his mother's chair, and sat
down on a stool at her feet.
"I wish I was clever like Dinah," he sighed. "I can't write stories, Mums: I've tried and tried and tried.
You'll never see a book of mine in print. There'll be nothing for you to be proud about in me."
His mother caressed his smooth brown head with her loving hand.
"Now, Chris, we'll have a little talk together. God gives us all different gifts. It isn't everyone who can
write books. I am glad it isn't. We have quite enough books in the world as it is. And, do you know, I
am very glad that my eldest son does not write stories. Somehow or other, I don't think it is very
noble or uplifting work for strong men to do. A man who spends his life in making up stories of what
silly men and women do and say isn't much of a man, to my thinking. Mind, Chris, there are great
writers amongst men, and writers who do a lot of good by their pen, but there are men who do the
reverse. I would far rather my son went out into the world, and endured hardness and worked hard
for his country and fellow-men. I want you to be an Empire-builder, my boy, or an Empire-keeper. You
can be a sailor, or a soldier, or a judge, or a policeman, or even a colonist, but if you're putting God
first, service for country next, and self last, I shall be proud of my son."
Chris squared his shoulders. His heart caught fire at his mother's words.
"I will make you proud of me, Mums," he said earnestly. "I will work hard all my life till I die."
And then his mother stooped and kissed the top of his head, and a bright tear fell as she said:
"God bless and keep you, my boy, and help you to keep your promise."
Chris was a happy boy that night. He had often bewailed his inferiority to his sister, who was so quick
and agile with her words and pen, but now he felt that he had a goal in front of him: a vision in which
he saw himself as a doer if not a talker or a writer; and he fell asleep murmuring to himself:
"I'll do, do, do, and Mums will be proud of me!"
The weather cleared in a few days and spring came along in a rush.
Very soon Mrs. Inglefield had made her plans. She had found a good boys' school about six miles
away, and though the schoolmaster did not care to take day boys as a rule, he made an exception in
Chris's case, and took him as a weekly boarder. Chris was to come home every Saturday and stay
till Monday. There was a train which would take him and bring him back. His mother meant to give
him a bicycle very soon, but meanwhile, he used the train.
Then a young governess was found in the neighbouring town. Her name was Miss Morgan, and she
came every morning at ten o'clock to give Diana and Noel some lessons. She stayed to lunch, took
them for a walk afterwards, and then went home. Diana was a very tractable pupil, though she was
apt to get dreamy and careless in her work. Noel was difficult. He did not like sitting still, and hated
his lessons. He was always ready to talk, but never ready to learn, and Miss Morgan found her
patience sorely tried by his inattention and restlessness.
One morning he had been very troublesome: he would not give his attention to an addition sum set
down for him on his slate. He kicked his chair, he drummed with his elbows on the table, and he
made grimaces at Diana, who sat on the opposite side of the table.
"Noel, if you don't start that sum at once I shall punish you," Miss Morgan said sternly.
"How?" asked Noel, not a bit abashed. "And why are figures so horrid, Miss Morgan? I like letters
best: you don't have to add them up. But yesterday I did count up. I counted the bwanches of my fir
tree, and I got up to twenty."
"No more talking. Begin your sum."
Noel balanced his slate pencil across his fingers, dropped it under the table, then scrambled down to
get it. He was a long time under the table, and then announced that the pencil was broken into a
"fowsand bits."
Miss Morgan produced another pencil promptly, and started him at his sum again.
She was giving Diana a French dictation lesson: when she looked at Noel again, she found him
leaning back in his chair, his eyes upon the ceiling.
"I'm counting the flies," he said; "they're more interesting than sixes and sevens."
"Very well," said Miss Morgan, "as you are determined not to do that sum, you will stand in the corner
till you are sorry for your idleness."
Noel did not like this at all, but he pretended he did. He marched off to the corner and stood with
hands behind him and his face to the wall.
Then he began to mutter to himself. Miss Morgan told him to be quiet.
Presently he spoke out loud:

"I'm telling God about you, how unkind you are to me."
"You're displeasing God very much. Ask Him to take away the naughty spirit who is making you idle
and disobedient."
"What's his name?" asked Noel, turning round with interest on his face. "Is it Satan?"
Miss Morgan made no reply. Diana giggled.
And then, with a sudden rush, Noel dashed at the door, opened it, and tore downstairs as fast as his
two feet could carry him. Down the garden he went, through the little gate into the churchyard, and
from there into the quiet silent church.
Miss Morgan went after him, but could not find him. She did not think of going into the church.
As she came back from a fruitless search in the garden, she met Mrs. Inglefield. In a few words she
told her about Noel.
"He really is extremely naughty this morning," she said. "He won't do his lessons, and now he has
run away."
Mrs. Inglefield looked distressed.
"He has been spoiled by his ayah in India," she said. "He has never been made to do things he
doesn't like. Don't spend your time looking for him, Miss Morgan. Leave him alone. He must be
punished when he comes back."
She sighed a little, for punishment of any sort was a painful necessity to her.
It was some time before Noel came back to the house. His mother caught sight of him stealing
across the garden on tiptoe.
She met him at the garden door.
"Why are you not at lessons?" she asked gravely.
Noel stood still, his gaze irresolute, then he smiled, and when Noel smiled he was adorable.
"Oh, Mums dear, I've been doing a dweffully difficult fing. Casting out Satan like Jesus did in the
Bible." Then he dropped his voice to an impressive whisper. "I fink I've left him in the church. I don't
know whether he's there still, or where he's going nex'."
"I'm quite sure you haven't been able to cast him out," said Mrs. Inglefield.
She always took Noel seriously.
"Well, no, not 'zackly, but Miss Morgan said he was in me, and I fought I'd better get as near God as I
could and then He'd help me. And I walked into the top seat and knelt on the stool."
"Are you good now?"
Noel nodded.
"It wasn't me that was wicked," he said, looking up at his mother with solemn eyes. "It was Satan.
God said to him in church, 'Get behind me, Satan,' and he did it."
"I am afraid, Noel, you have vexed Miss Morgan very much. If you have told God that you are sorry,
you must now go and tell her. And remember this. No one can make you naughty against your will.
You have liked being naughty, and you went on being naughty. And to make you remember that you
must not give way to such naughtiness, you must stay up in the nursery this evening and not come
down with the others after tea."
Noel began to cry, then he spread out his hands pathetically:
"But I'm good now. You can't puni' me when I'm good."
"I'm very glad you're good now; but you must be punished all the same. If a man gets sent to prison
for stealing, however good he feels and is, after stealing, it won't save him from the prison."
Noel stared at his mother. Then he sobbed out:
"But I want to be forgiven."
"Miss Morgan will forgive you if you tell her you are sorry, but you must still be punished."
And then she left him climbing slowly up the stairs to the schoolroom. She longed to take him in her
arms and pet him, but she knew it would not be good for him if she did.
Noel went into the nursery a chastened boy.
"I've come to say I'm sorry," he said.
Miss Morgan looked at his red eyes, and wisely did not ask him where he had been.
"I am very glad to hear you say so," she said. "Now, to show me you are sorry, sit down and do your
sums."
In silence Noel took up his slate and pencil. Miss Morgan had no cause for complaint of him again.
But when lessons were over Noel said to her:
"And though I'm as good as any angel, I'm going to be punished this evening. It isn't fair."
Miss Morgan asked him to explain. When she heard about it she said to him:
"Whatever your mother does is absolutely fair. It would not be fair to let you go unpunished. It is to
remind you next time you are going to be naughty that punishment will surely follow."
Noel said no more. His mother could not have punished him more severely than by preventing him
from joining her and Diana for what they called their happy hour.
But after this, he was better behaved in lesson time.
The flowers and bulbs in the garden were now making a good show.
Chris worked away in his garden when he came home on Saturday. His mustard and cress and
radishes were quite a success, and he was a proud boy when he presented his mother with the first
dish of them.
Diana was as busy as he, attending to her rose tree and seedlings. Noel weeded his plot, and talked
to his fir tree whilst he was doing it. He was very delighted one Sunday to see some of his seeds
coming up by the church porch.
But when Chris got his bicycle, there was not so much gardening done. Noel insisted upon learning
to ride it, and Chris for some time was good-natured about it. The two boys helped each other, and
strange to say Noel mastered the machine before Chris.
One Saturday afternoon their mother allowed them to go out with it. She was always anxious that the
boys should play and do things together. Noel seemed to have more respect for Chris now he was at
school, and was always asking him questions about it and longing to join him there.
Diana, strangely enough, did not take any interest in the bicycle. She tried to ride it one day and had
a bad fall and hurt herself. Since then she never touched it.
Mrs. Inglefield, seeing her walking about the garden rather aimlessly, suggested to her that she
should come for a walk with her.
Of course Diana was only too delighted to do so. She adored her mother and loved having her to
herself.
"We will go and see a farmer's wife, a Mrs. Cobb. I knew her as a little girl. She is getting old, and is
not able to leave home as she is stiff with rheumatism. It is such a pretty walk across the fields and
through a bit of wood."
"I hope Chris and Noel won't be quarrelling," Diana said in her grown-up tone as she started from the
house with her mother. She thought that her brothers would be envious of her when they heard how
she had spent the afternoon.
"I hope not," said her mother, smiling. "The more they are together, the better I am pleased. That was
why I let them go out by themselves to-day."
Diana gave a little sigh.
"I don't know why it is, but since Chris has gone to school, he turns up his nose at girls. He never
used to, and he'd do anything I told him to, and now he won't do a thing, and laughs at me."
"Poor little girl!" said Mrs. Inglefield sympathetically. "I went through that with my brothers, when I
was small. It is only when they first go to a boys' school. They get swelled heads, and think that boys
are the most superior beings in creation. Chris is very fond of you, Diana; he'll soon come back to
you if you take an interest in his cricket and games, and talk to him about his school."
Diana was silent; she knew she had not done this. They crossed some green fields, keeping to the
little path which was the right-of-way, and then they came to a wood with a beaten path under
overhanging trees. The fresh green foliage, the primroses and anemones and blue hyacinths
enchanted Diana.
"In the country," she said as she went down on her knees to pick the flowers, "you have everything
without paying for it. We couldn't do this in London. And the flowers in the parks are only to look at,
not to pick."
It was a bright sunny afternoon. Mrs. Inglefield, who was in no hurry, sat down to rest herself on a
fallen tree-trunk. Then suddenly a rather angry child's voice broke the silence:
"I won't go home—I won't! I won't ever again! I shall stay away till they find my dead body starved to
death, a skillington! I hate them all! I'll live up in the trees with the birds. They can hunt and hunt and
hunt for me, and will never find me. They'll be only hunting for me to punish me!"
Diana started up. She stood still and listened, and so did her mother. In a moment, pushing herself
passionately through a lot of bushes and undergrowth, appeared a little girl about Diana's age. She

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Cengage Learning products are represented in Canada by Nelson Education, Ltd.

For your course and learning solutions, visit www.cengage.com.

Printed in the United States of America

To our students, from whom we continue to learn,

1 Statistics Success Stories and Cautionary Tales 1

1 Statistics Success Stories and Cautionary Tales 1

2 Turning Data into Information 14

3 Relationships Between Quantitative Variables 68

4 Relationships Between Categorical Variables 112

5 Sampling: Surveys and How to Ask Questions 148

6 Gathering Useful Data for Examining

8 Random Variables 264

11 Estimating Means with Confidence 412

12 Testing Hypotheses about Proportions 460

13 Testing Hypotheses about Means 510

14 Inference about Simple Regression 562

15 More about Inference for Categorical Variables 598

16 Analysis of Variance 634

17 Turning Information into Wisdom 670

Instructors: the Supplemental Topics are available on the book companion

supplemental topic 1 Additional Discrete Random Variables

supplemental topic 2 Nonparametric Tests of Hypotheses

supplemental topic 3 Multiple Regression

supplemental topic 4 Two-Way Analysis of Variance

supplemental topic 5 Ethics

What Is Statistics, and Who Should

How Is This Book Different?

New to This Edition

0. Introductory SD Module 0 CI Module 0 HT Module 0

3. Population mean (µ) SD Module 3 CI Module 3 50 HT Module 3

Student Resources: Tools for Learning 50

Tools for Conceptual Understanding

Unless otherwise noted, all content on this page is © Cengage Learning.

Supplemental Notes boxes S u p p l e m e n ta l n o t e

disagreeing! similar. (Sources: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/11/

Total 342 (71%) 123 (26%) 14 (3%) 479 (100%)

Relevant conceptual and data

Answers to Selected Odd-

Technology for Developing Concepts

Aplia™ (ISBN: 9781285773100) is an online interactive learning solution that improves

Step-by-Step technology manuals, written specifically for Mind on Statistics, Fifth

Minitab, Excel, TI-84, and SPSS

formula Calculating Expected Counts

be used as a “quick-finder” and scatterplot, 70, 74 Total n for

y variable, 70 predicted y (y^ ), 76 proportion of variation explained by x, 86

sample is necessary to use the least squares line, 80 Section 3.5

Applet 2.1: How the Number of Intervals

Mrs. Inglefield looked really shocked.

"You were a born gardener, that you were!"

"Mums," said Chris, "may we see the flowers and choose?"

"Is your daughter still with you?" asked Mrs. Inglefield.

Diana looked at Chris, and they both giggled.

Noel looked at them angrily, and turned to his mother:

Mrs. Inglefield looked at him a little perplexedly.

"We can go to Mums," said Diana.

Suddenly he looked round:

"Oh, that wouldn't be proper," said Chris.

Chris made no reply.

"I'm Noel. Who are you?"

Noel looked at him stolidly.

"I'm not playing. I'm working very hard."

"Do you love God?" Mr. Wargrave asked gently.