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BRIEF COnTEnTS

CHAPTER 1 Examining Distributions 1

CHAPTER 2 Examining Relationships 63
CHAPTER 3 Producing Data 123
CHAPTER 4 Probability: The Study of Randomness 173
CHAPTER 5 Distributions for Counts and Proportions 243
CHAPTER 6 Introduction to Inference 287
CHAPTER 7 Inference for Means 357
CHAPTER 8 Inference for Proportions 417
CHAPTER 9 Inference for Categorical Data 455
CHAPTER 10 Inference for Regression 483
CHAPTER 11 Multiple Regression 531
CHAPTER 12 Statistics for Quality:
Control and Capability 591
CHAPTER 13 Time Series Forecasting 643
CHAPTER 14 One-Way Analysis of Variance 711

The Core book includes Chapters 1–14. Chapters 15–17 are

individual optional Companion Chapters and can be found at
www.macmillanhighered.com/psbe4e.

CHAPTER 15 Two-Way Analysis of Variance 15-1

CHAPTER 16 nonparametric Tests 16-1
CHAPTER 17 Logistic Regression 17-1

v
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COnTEnTS

To Instructors: About This Book xv BEyOnD THE BASICS:

Media and Supplements xxi Risk and Return 33
To Students: What Is Statistics? xxiv Section 1.3 Summary 34
Index of Cases xxviii Section 1.3 Exercises 35
Index of Data Tables xxix
Beyond the Basics Index xxx 1.4 Density Curves and the normal
About the Authors xxxi Distributions 38
Density curves 38
The median and mean of a
CHAPTER 1 Examining Distributions 1 density curve 39
Normal distributions 42
Introduction 1 The 68–95–99.7 rule 43
The standard Normal distribution 45
1.1 Data 2 Normal distribution calculations 46
Section 1.1 Summary 6 Using the standard Normal table 48
Section 1.1 Exercises 6 Inverse Normal calculations 49
Assessing the Normality of data 51
1.2 Displaying Distributions BEyOnD THE BASICS: Density
with Graphs 7 Estimation 54
Categorical variables: Bar graphs Section 1.4 Summary 56
and pie charts 7 Section 1.4 Exercises 57
Quantitative variables: Histograms 12 Chapter 1 Review Exercises 59
Case 1.1 Treasury Bills 12
Quantitative variables: Stemplots 15 CHAPTER 2 Examining Relationships 63
Interpreting histograms and stemplots 17
Time plots 19 Introduction 63
Section 1.2 Summary 20
Section 1.2 Exercises 21 2.1 Scatterplots 65
Case 2.1 Education Expenditures
1.3 Describing Distributions and Population: Benchmarking 65
with numbers 23 Interpreting scatterplots 67
Case 1.2 Time to Start a Business 23 The log transformation 68
Measuring center: The mean 24 Adding categorical variables
Measuring center: The median 25 to scatterplots 70
Comparing the mean and the median 26 Section 2.1 Summary 71
Measuring spread: The quartiles 27 Section 2.1 Exercises 72
The five-number summary
and boxplots 29 2.2 Correlation 74
Measuring spread: The standard The correlation r 75
deviation 31 Facts about correlation 76
Choosing measures of center Section 2.2 Summary 78
and spread 32 Section 2.2 Exercises 78

vii
viii COnTEnTS

2.3 Least-Squares Regression 80 Section 3.2 Summary 140

The least-squares regression line 81 Section 3.2 Exercises 140
Facts about least-squares regression 86
Interpretation of r2 87 3.3 Designing Experiments 142
Residuals 88 Comparative experiments 145
The distribution of the residuals 92 Randomized comparative
Influential observations 92 experiments 146
Section 2.3 Summary 94 Completely randomized designs 147
Section 2.3 Exercises 95 How to randomize 147
The logic of randomized
2.4 Cautions about Correlation comparative experiments 150
and Regression 98 Cautions about experimentation 153
Extrapolation 98 Matched pairs designs 154
Correlations based on averaged data 99 Block designs 155
Lurking variables 100 Section 3.3 Summary 157
Association is not causation 101 Section 3.3 Exercises 157
BEyOnD THE BASICS: Data Mining 102
Section 2.4 Summary 103 3.4 Data Ethics 160
Section 2.4 Exercises 103 Institutional review boards 160
Informed consent 161
2.5 Relations in Categorical Data 104 Confidentiality 162
Case 2.2 Does the Right Music Clinical trials 163
Sell the Product? 104 Behavioral and social science
Marginal distributions 105 experiments 165
Conditional distributions 107 Section 3.4 Summary 167
Mosaic plots and software output 109 Section 3.4 Exercises 167
Simpson’s paradox 110 Chapter 3 Review Exercises 169
Section 2.5 Summary 112
Section 2.5 Exercises 113 CHAPTER 4 Probability: The Study
Chapter 2 Review Exercises 116 of Randomness 173

CHAPTER 3 Producing Data 123 Introduction 173

4.1 Randomness 174
Introduction 123
The language of probability 175
3.1 Sources of Data 124 Thinking about randomness
Anecdotal data 124 and probability 176
Available data 124 Section 4.1 Summary 176
Sample surveys and experiments 126 Section 4.1 Exercises 177
Section 3.1 Summary 127
Section 3.1 Exercises 128 4.2 Probability Models 179
Sample spaces 179
3.2 Designing Samples 129 Probability rules 182
Simple random samples 132 Assigning probabilities: Finite
Stratified samples 134 number of outcomes 184
Multistage samples 135 Case 4.1 Uncovering Fraud
Cautions about sample surveys 136 by Digital Analysis 184
BEyOnD THE BASICS: Assigning probabilities: Equally
Capture-Recapture Sampling 139 likely outcomes 186
 COnTEnTS ix

Independence and the The binomial distributions

multiplication rule 187 for statistical sampling 247
Applying the probability rules 189 Case 5.1 Inspecting a Supplier’s
Section 4.2 Summary 191 Products 247
Section 4.2 Exercises 191 Finding binomial probabilities 247
Binomial formula 250
4.3 General Probability Rules 194 Binomial mean and standard
General addition rules 194 deviation 253
Conditional probability 197 Sample proportions 255
General multiplication rules 200 Normal approximation for counts
Tree diagrams 201 and proportions 256
Bayes’s rule 203 The continuity correction 260
Independence again 205 Assessing binomial assumption
Section 4.3 Summary 205 with data 261
Section 4.3 Exercises 206 Section 5.1 Summary 263
Section 5.1 Exercises 264
4.4 Random Variables 209
Discrete random variables 210 5.2 The Poisson Distributions 267
Case 4.2 Tracking The Poisson setting 267
Perishable Demand 210 The Poisson model 269
Continuous random variables 213 Approximations to the Poisson 270
Normal distributions as Assessing Poisson assumption
probability distributions 215 with data 271
Section 4.4 Summary 216 Section 5.2 Summary 273
Section 4.4 Exercises 217 Section 5.2 Exercises 273

4.5 Means and Variances of 5.3 Toward Statistical Inference 275

Random Variables 219 Sampling distributions 276
The mean of a random variable 219 Bias and variability 279
Mean and the law of large numbers 222 Why randomize? 280
Thinking about the law of Section 5.3 Summary 281
large numbers 223 Section 5.3 Exercises 281
Rules for means 224 Chapter 5 Review Exercises 284
Case 4.3 Portfolio Analysis 225
The variance of a random variable 229
Rules for variances and CHAPTER 6 Introduction to
standard deviations 230 Inference 287
Section 4.5 Summary 235
Section 4.5 Exercises 236 Introduction 287
Chapter 4 Review Exercises 239
Overview of inference 288
CHAPTER 5 Distributions for Counts
and Proportions 243 6.1 The Sampling Distribution of a
Sample Mean 288
Introduction 243 The mean and standard deviation
of x 292
5.1 The Binomial Distributions 244 The central limit theorem 294
The binomial distributions for sample Section 6.1 Summary 299
counts 245 Section 6.1 Exercises 300
x COnTEnTS

6.2 Estimating with Confidence 302 CHAPTER 7 Inference for Means 357
Statistical confidence 302
Confidence intervals 304 Introduction 357
Confidence interval for a
population mean 306 7.1 Inference for the Mean
How confidence intervals behave 309 of a Population 358
Some cautions 311 t distributions 358
Section 6.2 Summary 313 The one-sample t confidence interval 360
Section 6.2 Exercises 314 Case 7.1 Time Spent Using
a Smartphone 361
6.3 Tests of Significance 316 The one-sample t test 362
The reasoning of significance tests 316 Using software 365
Case 6.1 Fill the Bottles 317 Matched pairs t procedures 368
Stating hypotheses 319 Robustness of the one-sample
Test statistics 321 t procedures 371
P-values 322 BEyOnD THE BASICS:
The Bootstrap 372
Statistical significance 324
Section 7.1 Summary 373
Tests of one population mean 326
Section 7.1 Exercises 374
Two-sided significance tests
and confidence intervals 329
7.2 Comparing Two Means 378
P-values versus reject-or-not
The two-sample t statistic 379
reporting 331
The two-sample t confidence interval 381
Section 6.3 Summary 332
The two-sample t significance test 383
Section 6.3 Exercises 333
Robustness of the two-sample
procedures 384
6.4 Using Significance Tests 336
Inference for small samples 385
Choosing a level of significance 337
The pooled two-sample t procedures 386
What statistical significance does
Case 7.2 Active versus Failed
not mean 337
Retail Companies 389
Statistical inference is not valid
Section 7.2 Summary 392
for all sets of data 339
Section 7.2 Exercises 393
Beware of searching for
significance 339
7.3 Additional Topics on Inference 398
Section 6.4 Summary 341
Choosing the sample size 398
Section 6.4 Exercises 341
Inference for non-Normal
populations 406
6.5 Power and Inference
Section 7.3 Summary 408
as a Decision 343
Section 7.3 Exercises 409
Power 343
Increasing the power 345 Chapter 7 Review Exercises 411
Inference as decision 346
Two types of error 346
Error probabilities 347 CHAPTER 8 Inference for
The common practice of Proportions 417
testing hypotheses 349
Section 6.5 Summary 350 Introduction 417
Section 6.5 Exercises 350 8.1 Inference for a Single
Chapter 6 Review Exercises 351 Proportion 418
 COnTEnTS xi

Case 8.1 Robotics and Jobs 418 Models for two-way tables 466
Large-sample confidence BEyOnD THE BASICS: Meta-Analysis 468
interval for a single proportion 420 Section 9.1 Summary 470
Plus four confidence interval for a
single proportion 421 9.2 Goodness of Fit 470
Significance test for a single Section 9.2 Summary 475
proportion 423 Chapter 9 Review Exercises 475
Choosing a sample size for
a confidence interval 426
Case 8.2 Marketing Christmas CHAPTER 10 Inference
Trees 428 for Regression 483
Choosing a sample size for a
significance test 429 Introduction 483
Section 8.1 Summary 431
Section 8.1 Exercises 432 10.1 Inference about the
Regression Model 484
8.2 Comparing Two Proportions 436 Statistical model for simple
Large-sample confidence intervals linear regression 484
for a difference in proportions 437 From data analysis to inference 485
Case 10.1 The Relationship
Case 8.3 Social Media in the
between Income and Education
Supply Chain 438
for Entrepreneurs 485
Plus four confidence intervals for
a difference in proportions 440 Estimating the regression
Significance tests 440 parameters 490
Choosing a sample size for Conditions for regression
two sample proportions 444 inference 494
BEyOnD THE BASICS: Relative Risk 447
Confidence intervals and
Section 8.2 Summary 448 significance tests 495
Section 8.2 Exercises 449 The word “regression” 500
Inference about correlation 500
Chapter 8 Review Exercises 451
Section 10.1 Summary 502
Section 10.1 Exercises 503
CHAPTER 9 Inference for
Categorical Data 455 10.2 Using the Regression Line 510
BEyOnD THE BASICS:
9.1 Inference for Two-Way Nonlinear Regression 515
Tables 455 Section 10.2 Summary 515
Two-way tables 456 Section 10.2 Exercises 516
Case 9.1 Are Flexible Companies
More Competitive? 457 10.3 Some Details of Regression
Describing relations in two-way Inference 517
tables 458 Standard errors 518
The hypothesis: No association 462 Analysis of variance for regression 520
Expected cell counts 462 Section 10.3 Summary 524
The chi-square test 463 Section 10.3 Exercises 524
The chi-square test and the z test 465 Chapter 10 Review Exercises 526
xii COnTEnTS

CHAPTER 11 Multiple Regression 531 CHAPTER 12 Statistics for Quality:

Control and Capability 591
Introduction 531
Introduction 591
11.1 Data Analysis for Multiple
Regression 534 Quality overview 592
Case 11.1 Assets, Sales, Systematic approach to process
and Profits 534 improvement 593
Data for multiple regression 534 Process improvement toolkit 594
Preliminary data analysis
for multiple regression 535 12.1 Statistical Process Control 597
Estimating the multiple regression Section 12.1 Summary 599
coefficients 538 Section 12.1 Exercises 600
Regression residuals 541
The regression standard error 544 12.2 Variable Control Charts 600
Section 11.1 Summary 545 x and R charts 601
Section 11.1 Exercises 546 Case 12.1 Turnaround Time
for Lab Results 604
11.2 Inference for Multiple Case 12.2 O-Ring Diameters 609
Regression 548 x and s charts 612
Multiple linear regression model 549 Charts for individual observations 614
Case 11.2 Predicting Movie Don’t confuse control with
Revenue 550 capability! 619
Estimating the parameters Section 12.2 Summary 626
of the model 550 Section 12.2 Exercises 626
Inference about the regression
coefficients 551 12.3 Attribute Control Charts 630
Inference about prediction 554 Control charts for sample
ANOVA table for multiple proportions 630
regression 555 Case 12.3 Reducing
Squared multiple correlation R2 558 Absenteeism 631
Inference for a collection Control charts for counts per unit
of regression coefficients 559 of measure 636
Section 11.2 Summary 561 Section 12.3 Summary 638
Section 11.2 Exercises 562 Section 12.3 Exercises 638
Chapter 12 Review Exercises 639
11.3 Multiple Regression
Model Building 566
CHAPTER 13 Time Series
Case 11.3 Prices of Homes 566
Forecasting 643
Models for curved relationships 569
Models with categorical
Introduction 643
explanatory variables 571
More elaborate models 575 Overview of Time Series Forecasting 643
Variable selection methods 577
BEyOnD THE BASICS: Multiple 13.1 Assessing Time Series
Logistic Regression 580 Behavior 644
Section 11.3 Summary 582 Case 13.1 Amazon Sales 647
Section 11.3 Exercises 582 Runs test 648
Chapter 11 Review Exercises 584 Autocorrelation function 651
 COnTEnTS xiii

Forecasts 656 Testing hypotheses in one-way

Section 13.1 Summary 657 ANOVA 722
Section 13.1 Exercises 657 The ANOVA table 724
The F test 726
13.2 Random Walks 657 Using software 729
Price changes versus returns 661 BEyOnD THE BASICS: Testing
Section 13.2 Summary 663 the Equality of Spread 731
Section 13.2 Exercises 663 Section 14.1 Summary 733

13.3 Modeling Trend and Seasonality 14.2 Comparing Group Means 733
Using Regression 664 Contrasts 733
Identifying trends 665 Case 14.2 Evaluation of a
Seasonal patterns 671 new Educational Product 733
Using indicator variables 672 Multiple comparisons 740
Residual checking 677 Simultaneous confidence intervals 744
Section 13.3 Summary 679 Section 14.2 Summary 744
Section 13.3 Exercises 679
14.3 The Power of the AnOVA Test 745
13.4 Lag Regression Models 681 Section 14.3 Summary 749
Autoregressive-based models 681 Chapter 14 Review Exercises 749
Section 13.4 Summary 690
Section 13.4 Exercises 691 Notes and Data Sources N-1
Tables T-1
13.5 Moving-Average and Answers to Odd-Numbered Exercises S-1
Smoothing Models 691 Index I-1
Moving-average models 691
Moving average and The following optional Companion
seasonal ratios 694 Chapters can be found online at
Exponential smoothing models 699 www.macmillanhighered.com/psbe4e.
Section 13.5 Summary 706
Section 13.5 Exercises 706
Chapter 13 Review Exercises 708 CHAPTER 15 Two-Way Analysis
of Variance 15-1

CHAPTER 14 One-Way Analysis Introduction 15-1

of Variance 711
15.1 The Two-Way AnOVA Model 15-2
Introduction 711 Advantages of two-way ANOVA 15-2
The two-way ANOVA model 15-5
14.1 One-Way Analysis of Variance 712 Main effects and interactions 15-7
The ANOVA setting 712 Section 15.1 Summary 15-13
Comparing means 713
The two-sample t statistic 714 15.2 Inference for Two-Way AnOVA 15-13
An overview of ANOVA 715 The ANOVA table for two-way
Case 14.1 Tip of the Hat and ANOVA 15-13
Wag of the Finger? 715 Carrying out a two-way ANOVA 15-15
The ANOVA model 718 Case 15.1 Discounts and
Estimates of population parameters 720 Expected Prices 15-15
xiv COnTEnTS

Case 15.2 Expected Prices, The Kruskal-Wallis test 16-25

Continued 15-16 Section 16.3 Summary 16-27
Section 15.2 Summary 15-21 Section 16.3 Exercises 16-27
Chapter 15 Review Exercises 15-21 Chapter 16 Review Exercises 16-29

Notes and Data Sources 15-28 Notes and Data Sources 16-31
Answers to Odd-Numbered Exercises 15-29 Answers to Odd-Numbered Exercises 16-32

CHAPTER 16 nonparametric Tests 16-1 CHAPTER 17 Logistic Regression 17-1

Introduction 16-1 Introduction 17-1

16.1 The Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test 16-3 17.1 The Logistic Regression Model 17-2
Case 16.1 Price Discrimination? 16-3 Case 17.1 Clothing Color
The rank transformation 16-4 and Tipping 17-2
The Wilcoxon rank sum test 16-5 Binomial distributions and odds 17-2
The Normal approximation 16-7 Model for logistic regression 17-4
What hypotheses do the Fitting and interpreting the
Wilcoxon test? 16-8 logistic regression model 17-5
Ties 16-9 Section 17.1 Summary 17-8
Case 16.2 Consumer Perceptions
of Food Safety 16-10 17.2 Inference for Logistic
Rank versus t tests 16-12 Regression 17-9
Section 16.1 Summary 16-12 Examples of logistic regression
Section 16.1 Exercises 16-12 analyses 17-11
Section 17.2 Summary 17-15
16.2 The Wilcoxon Signed
Rank Test 16-15 17.3 Multiple Logistic Regression 17-16
The Normal approximation 16-18 Section 17.3 Summary 17-17
Ties 16-19 Chapter 17 Review Exercises 17-17
Section 16.2 Summary 16-21
Notes and Data Sources 17-22
Section 16.2 Exercises 16-21
Answers to Odd-Numbered Exercises 17-23
16.3 The Kruskal-Wallis Test 16-24
Hypotheses and assumptions 16-25
TO InSTRUCTORS: AbouT ThiS book

S tatistics is the science of data. The Practice of Statistics for Business and Eco-
nomics (PSBE) is an introduction to statistics for students of business and eco-
nomics based on this principle. We present methods of basic statistics in a way that
emphasizes working with data and mastering statistical reasoning. PSBE is elemen-
tary in mathematical level but conceptually rich in statistical ideas. After complet-
ing a course based on our text, we would like students to be able to think objectively
about conclusions drawn from data and use statistical methods in their own work.
In PSBE we combine attention to basic statistical concepts with a comprehen-
sive presentation of the elementary statistical methods that students will find useful
in their work. We believe that you will enjoy using PSBE for several reasons:
1. PSBE examines the nature of modern statistical practice at a level suitable for
beginners. We focus on the production and analysis of data as well as the tradi-
tional topics of probability and inference.
2. PSBE has a logical overall progression, so data production and data analysis are
a major focus, while inference is treated as a tool that helps us to draw conclu-
sions from data in an appropriate way.
3. PSBE presents data analysis as more than a collection of techniques for explor-
ing data. We emphasize systematic ways of thinking about data. Simple prin-
ciples guide the analysis: always plot your data; look for overall patterns and
deviations from them; when looking at the overall pattern of a distribution for
one variable, consider shape, center, and spread; for relations between two vari-
ables, consider form, direction, and strength; always ask whether a relationship
between variables is influenced by other variables lurking in the background.
We warn students about pitfalls in clear cautionary discussions.
4. PSBE uses real examples and exercises from business and economics to
illustrate and enforce key ideas. Students learn the technique of least-squares
regression and how to interpret the regression slope. But they also learn the con-
ceptual ties between regression and correlation and the importance of looking
for influential observations.
5. PSBE is aware of current developments both in statistical science and in teach-
ing statistics. Brief, optional “Beyond the Basics” sections give quick overviews
of topics such as density estimation, the bootstrap, scatterplot smoothers, data
mining, nonlinear regression, and meta-analysis.

Themes of This Book

Look at your data is a consistent theme in PSBE. Rushing to inference—often
automated by software—without first exploring the data is the most common source
of statistical error that we see in working with users from many fields. A second
theme is that where the data come from matters. When we do statistical inference,
we are acting as if the data come from a properly randomized sample or experi-
mental design. A basic understanding of these designs helps students grasp how
inference works. The distinction between observational and experimental data helps

xv
xvi TO InSTRUCTORS: AbouT ThiS book

students understand the truth of the mantra that “association does not imply causa-
tion.” Moreover, managers need to understand the use of sample surveys for market
research and customer satisfaction and the use of statistically designed experiments
for product and process development and improvement.
Another strand that runs through PSBE is that data lead to decisions in a spe-
cific setting. A calculation or graph or “reject H0” is not the conclusion of an exer-
cise in statistics. We encourage students to state a conclusion in the specific problem
context, and we hope that you will require them to do so.
Finally, we think that a first course in any discipline should focus on the
essentials. We have not tried to write an encyclopedia, but to equip students to use
statistics (and learn more statistics as needed) by presenting the major concepts
and most-used tools of the discipline. Longer lists of procedures “covered” tend
to reduce student understanding and ability to use any procedures to deal with real
problems.

What’s new in the Fourth Edition

• Chapter opener questions Each chapter begins with a bulleted list of practical
business questions that can be addressed by the methods in the chapter.
• Data Chapter 1 now begins with a short section giving a basic overview of data.
• Categorical data The material on descriptive statistics for categorical data in
Chapter 2 as well as inference in Chapter 9 has been expanded to include mosaic
plots as a visual tool to understand relationships.
• Producing data Chapter 3 now begins with a short section giving a basic over-
view of data sources.
• Probability We have reorganized the sections on probability models, general
probability rules, and random variables so that they are now self-contained in
one chapter (Chapter 4).
• Distributions Our reorganization of probability topics allows for a natural tran-
sition to Chapter 5 to be devoted to distributions on counts and proportions.
New material has been added on the exploration of real data to check for com-
patibility with binomial and Poisson assumptions.
• Inference We have reorganized the sections on inference and sampling distri-
butions so that they now flow in sequence. Material that previously appeared
in Chapter 3 with a focus on proportions, concepts of sampling distributions,
and estimation now appears in the last section of Chapter 5 (“Toward Statistical
Inference”). This section is immediately followed by Chapter 6, which provides
a complete treatment on inference for the mean.
• Inference for means Chapter 7 is retitled (“Inference for Means”), and the
section on inference for population spread was moved to the one-way analysis
of variance chapter (Chapter 14). In addition, Section 7.1 was streamlined by
moving the discussion of inference for non-Normal populations to Section 7.3.
• Sample size determination for means and proportions Additional material
on choosing sample sizes for one and two means or proportions using software
is included in Chapters 7 and 8, respectively.
• Equivalence testing This topic is now included in Chapter 7, and the power
calculations now appear in a separate section in this chapter.
 TO InSTRUCTORS: AbouT ThiS book xvii

• Inference for categorical data Chapter 9 is retitled (“Inference for Categori-

cal Data”), and now includes goodness of fit as well as inference for two-way
tables.
• Quality control Chapter 12 (“Statistics for Quality: Control and Capability”)
introduces the new topic of the moving-range chart for the monitoring of indi-
vidual measurement processes. In addition, the calculations of process capabil-
ity indices are now presented in manner typically reported in statistical software.
• Time series Chapter 13 (“Time Series Forecasting”) introduces several new
techniques, including the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocor-
relation function (PACF). In addition, we have introduced a new section on ran-
dom walks. We also newly introduce to this chapter the use of moving averages
and centered moving averages to estimate seasonal ratios and show how to use
these ratios to deseasonalize a time series.
• Exercises and examples Approximately 50% of the exercises and examples are
new or revised. We have placed additional emphasis on making the business or
economics relevance of the exercises clear to the reader.
• Increased emphasis on software We have increased our emphasis on graphical
displays of data. Software displays have been updated and are given additional
prominence.

REMInDER • Reminders At key points in the text, Reminder margin notes direct the reader
to the first explanation of a topic, providing page numbers for easy reference.
• Data file names Data file names now include a short description of the content
DATA

as well as the exercise or example number. Marginal icons show data set names
for examples and in-text icons show the data set names for exercises.
• Software basics These have been expanded to include more software options
and moved from the appendices at the end of each chapter to our online re-
sources. These can now be found at www.macmillanhighered.com/psbe4e.

Content and Style

PSBE adapts to the business and economics statistics setting the approach to intro-
ductory instruction that was inaugurated and proved successful in the best-selling
general statistics texts Introduction to the Practice of Statistics (eighth edition,
Freeman 2014). PSBE features use of real data in examples and exercises and em-
phasizes statistical thinking as well as mastery of techniques. As the continuing
revolution in computing automates most tiresome details, an emphasis on statistical
concepts and on insight from data becomes both more practical for students and
teachers and more important for users who must supply what is not automated.
Chapters 1 and 2 present the methods and unifying ideas of data analysis. Stu-
dents appreciate the usefulness of data analysis, and realizing they can actually
do it relieves a bit of their anxiety about statistics. We hope that they will grow
accustomed to examining data and will continue to do so even when formal inference
to answer a specific question is the ultimate goal. Note in particular that Chapter 2
gives an extended treatment of correlation and regression as descriptive tools, with
attention to issues such as influential observations and the dangers posed by lurking
variables. These ideas and tools have wider scope than an emphasis on inference
(Chapters 10 and 11) allows. We think that a full discussion of data analysis for
both one and several variables before students meet inference in these settings both
reflects statistical practice and is pedagogically helpful.
xviii TO InSTRUCTORS: AbouT ThiS book

Teachers will notice some nonstandard ideas in these chapters, particularly

regarding the Normal distributions—we capitalize “Normal” to avoid suggesting
that these distributions are “normal” in the usual sense of the word. We introduce
density curves and Normal distributions in Chapter 1 as models for the overall pat-
tern of some sets of data. Only later (Chapter 4) do we see that the same tools can
describe probability distributions. Although unusual, this presentation reflects the
historical origin of Normal distributions and also helps break up the mass of prob-
ability that is so often a barrier that students fail to surmount.
We use the notation N(μ, s) rather than N(μ, s2) for Normal distributions. The
traditional notation is, in fact, indefensible other than as inherited tradition. The
standard deviation, not the variance, is the natural measure of scale in Normal
distributions, visible on the density curve, used in standardization, and so on. We
want students to think in terms of mean and standard deviation, so we talk in these
terms.
In Chapter 3, we discuss random sampling and randomized comparative ex-
periments. The exposition pays attention to practical difficulties, such as nonre-
sponse in sample surveys, that can greatly reduce the value of data. We think that an
understanding of such broader issues is particularly important for managers who
must use data but do not themselves produce data. Discussion of statistics in prac-
tice alongside more technical material is part of our emphasis on data leading to
practical decisions. We include a section on data ethics, a topic of increasing im-
portance for business managers. Chapters 4 and 5 then present probability. We have
chosen an unusual approach: Chapter 4 contains only the probability material that
is needed to understand statistical inference, and this material is presented quite in-
formally. The sections on probability models, general probability rules, and random
variables have been reorganized so that they are now self-contained in this chapter.
Chapter 5 now focuses on distributions of counts and proportions with new material
on checking binomial and Poisson assumptions. It also concludes with a section
titled “Toward Statistical Inference,” which introduces the concepts of parameters
and statistics, sampling distributions, and bias and precision. This section provides
a nice lead in to Chapter 6, which provides the reasoning of inference.
The remaining chapters present statistical inference, still encouraging students
to ask where the data come from and to look at the data rather than quickly choosing
a statistical test from an Excel menu. Chapter 6, which describes the reasoning of
inference, is the cornerstone. Chapters 7 and 8 discuss one-sample and two-sample
procedures for means and proportions, respectively, which almost any first course
will cover. We take the opportunity in these core “statistical practice” chapters to dis-
cuss practical aspects of inference in the context of specific examples. Chapters 9, 10,
and 11 present selected and more advanced topics in inference: two-way tables and
simple and multiple regression. Chapters 12, 13, and 14 present additional advanced
topics in inference: quality control, time series forecasting, and one-way analysis of
variance.
Instructors who wish to customize a single-semester course or to add a second
semester will find a wide choice of additional topics in the Companion Chapters
that extend PSBE. These chapters are:

Chapter 15 Two-Way Analysis of Variance

Chapter 16 Nonparametric Tests
Chapter 17 Logistic Regression

Companion Chapters can be found on the book’s website:

www.macmillanhighered.com/psbe4e.
 TO InSTRUCTORS: AbouT ThiS book xix

Accessible Technology
Any mention of the current state of statistical practice reminds us that quick, cheap,
and easy computation has changed the field. Procedures such as our recommended
two-sample t and logistic regression depend on software. Even the mantra “look at
your data” depends—in practice—on software because making multiple plots by
hand is too tedious when quick decisions are required. What is more, automating
calculations and graphs increases students’ ability to complete problems, reduces
their frustration, and helps them concentrate on ideas and problem recognition
rather than mechanics.
We therefore strongly recommend that a course based on PSBE be accompa-
nied by software of your choice. Instructors will find using software easier because
all data sets for PSBE can be found in several common formats on the website
www.macmillanhighered.com/psbe4e.
The Microsoft Excel spreadsheet is by far the most common program used for
statistical analysis in business. Our displays of output, therefore, emphasize Excel,
though output from several other programs also appears. PSBE is not tied to spe-
cific software. Even so, one of our emphases is that a student who has mastered the
basics of, say, regression can interpret and use regression output from almost any
software.
We are well aware that Excel lacks many advanced statistical procedures. More
seriously, Excel’s statistical procedures have been found to be inaccurate, and they
lack adequate warnings for users when they encounter data for which they may
give incorrect answers. There is good reason for people whose profession requires
continual use of statistical analysis to avoid Excel. But there are also good, practi-
cal reasons why managers whose life is not statistical prefer a program that they
regularly use for other purposes. Excel appears to be adequate for simpler analyses
of the kind that occur most often in business applications.
Some statistical work, both in practice and in PSBE, can be done with a calcula-
tor rather than software. Students should have at least a “two-variable statistics” cal-
culator with functions for correlation and the least-squares regression line as well as
for the mean and standard deviation. Graphing calculators offer considerably more
capability. Because students have calculators, the text doesn’t discuss “computing
formulas” for the sample standard deviation or the least-squares regression line.
Technology can be used to assist learning statistics as well as doing statistics.
The design of good software for learning is often quite different from that of soft-
ware for doing. We want to call particular attention to the set of statistical applets
available on the PSBE website: www.macmillanhighered.com/psbe4e. These in-
teractive graphical programs are by far the most effective way to help students grasp
the sensitivity of correlation and regression to outliers, the idea of a confidence
interval, the way ANOVA responds to both within-group and among-group varia-
tion, and many other statistical fundamentals. Exercises using these applets appear
throughout the text, marked by a distinctive icon. We urge you to assign some of
these, and we suggest that if your classroom is suitably equipped, the applets are
very helpful tools for classroom presentation as well.

Carefully Structured Pedagogy

Few students find statistics easy. An emphasis on real data and real problems helps
maintain motivation, and there is no substitute for clear writing. Beginning with
data analysis builds confidence and gives students a chance to become familiar with
your chosen software before the statistical content becomes intimidating. We have
xx TO InSTRUCTORS: AbouT ThiS book

adopted several structural devices to aid students. Major settings that drive the expo-
sition are presented as cases with more background information than other examples.
(But we avoid the temptation to give so much information that the case obscures the
CASE statistics.) A distinctive icon ties together examples and exercises based on a case.
The exercises are structured with particular care. Short “Apply Your Knowl-
edge” sections pose straightforward problems immediately after each major new
idea. These give students stopping points (in itself a great help to beginners) and
also tell them that “you should be able to do these things right now.” Most num-
bered sections in the text end with a substantial set of exercises, and more appear as
review exercises at the end of each chapter.

Acknowledgments
We are grateful to the many colleagues and students who have provided helpful com-
ments about PSBE, as well as those who have provided feedback about Introduction
to the Practice of Statistics. They have contributed to improving PSBE as well. In
particular, we would like to thank the following colleagues who, as reviewers and
authors of supplements, offered specific comments on PSBE, Fourth Edition:
Ala Abdelbaki, University of Virginia Hilde E. Patron Boenheim, University of
Diane Bean, Kirkwood Community College West Georgia
Tadd Colver, Purdue University Cathy D. Poliak, University of Houston
Bryan Crissinger, University of Delaware Michael Racer, University of Memphis
Douglas Antola Crowe, Bradley University Terri Rizzo, Lakehead University
John Daniel Draper, The Ohio State Stephen Robertson, Southern Methodist
University University
Anne Drougas, Dominican University Deborah Rumsey, The Ohio State University
Gary Evans, Purdue University John Samons, Florida State College at
Homi Fatemi, Santa Clara University Jacksonville
Mark A. Gebert, University of Kentucky Bonnie Schroeder, The Ohio State
Kim Gilbert, University of Georgia University
Matt Gnagey, Weber State University Caroline Schruth, University of
Deborah J. Gougeon, University of Scranton Washington
Betsy Greenberg, University of Texas at Carl Schwarz, Simon Fraser University
Austin Sarah Sellke, Purdue University
Susan Herring, Sonoma State University Jenny Shook, Pennsylvania State
Paul Holmes, University of Georgia University
Patricia Humphrey, Georgia Southern Jeffrey Sklar, California Polytechnic State
University University
Ronald Jorgensen, Milwaukee School of Rafael Solis, California State University,
Engineering Fresno
Leigh Lawton, University of St. Thomas Weixing Song, Kansas State University
James Manley, Towson University Christa Sorola, Purdue University
Lee McClain, Western Washington Lynne Stokes, Southern Methodist
University University
Glenn Miller, Pace University Tim Swartz, Simon Fraser University
Carolyn H. Monroe, Baylor University Elizabeth J. Wark, Worchester State
Hayley Nathan, University of University
Wisconsin–Milwaukee Allen L. Webster, Bradley University
Joseph Nolan, Northern Kentucky University Mark Werner, University of Georgia
Karah Osterberg, Northern Illinois Blake Whitten, University of Iowa
University Yuehua Wu, York University
Charles J. Parker, Wayne State College Yan Yu, University of Cincinnati
MEDIA AnD SUPPLEMEnTS

T he following electronic and print supplements are available with The Practice
of Statistics for Business and Economics, Fourth Edition:

W. H. Freeman’s new online homework system, LaunchPad, offers our qual-

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Curated units. Combining a curated collection of videos, homework sets, tutorials,

applets, and e-Book content, LaunchPad’s interactive units give instructors a build-
ing block to use as-is or as a starting point for customized learning units. A majority
of exercises from the text can be assigned as online homework, including an abun-
dance of algorithmic exercises. An entire unit’s worth of work can be assigned in
seconds, drastically reducing the amount of time it takes for instructors to have their
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a game-like format, direct links to the e-Book, and instant feedback. The quizzing
system features questions tailored specifically to the text and adapts to students’
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solutions, allowing instructors to generate a solution file for any set of homework
exercises.
xxi
xxii MEDIA AnD SUPPLEMEnTS

Statistical Video Series consists of StatClips, StatClips Examples, and Statisti-

cally Speaking “Snapshots.” View animated lecture videos, whiteboard lessons, and
documentary-style footage that illustrate key statistical concepts and help students
visualize statistics in real-world scenarios.

NEW Video Technology Manuals available for TI-83/84 calculators, Minitab, Excel,
JMP, SPSS (an IBM Company),* R (with and without Rcmdr), and CrunchIt!®
provide 50 to 60 brief videos for using each specific statistical software in conjunc-
tion with a variety of topics from the textbook.

NEW StatBoards videos are brief whiteboard videos that illustrate difficult topics
through additional examples, written and explained by a select group of statistics
educators.

UPDATED StatTutor Tutorials offer multimedia tutorials that explore important

concepts and procedures in a presentation that combines video, audio, and interac-
tive features. The newly revised format includes built-in, assignable assessments
and a bright new interface.

UPDATED Statistical Applets give students hands-on opportunities to familiarize

themselves with important statistical concepts and procedures, in an interactive set-
ting that allows them to manipulate variables and see the results graphically. Icons
in the textbook indicate when an applet is available for the material being covered.

CrunchIt!® is W. H. Freeman’s Web-based statistical software that allows users to

perform all the statistical operations and graphing needed for an introductory busi-
ness statistics course and more. It saves users time by automatically loading data
from PSBE, and it provides the flexibility to edit and import additional data.

JMP Student Edition (developed by SAS) is easy to learn and contains all the
capabilities required for introductory business statistics. JMP is the leading com-
mercial data analysis software of choice for scientists, engineers, and analysts at
companies throughout the world (for Windows and Mac).

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helping them better understand statistics interactively within the context of real-life
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dents to apply their statistical skills by exploring actual case studies using real data.

Data files are available in JMP, ASCII, Excel, TI, Minitab, SPSS, R, and CSV
formats.

Student Solutions Manual provides solutions to the odd-numbered exercises in

the text.

Instructor’s Guide with Full Solutions includes worked out solutions to all exer-
cises, teaching suggestions, and chapter comments.

*SPSS was acquired by IBM in October 2009.

Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
CHAPTER XXVII.

Confectionary.

Citron.
 TO CLARIFY SUGAR.

It is an economy to use at once the very best sugar for confectionary

in general, for when highly refined it needs little or no clarifying, even
for the most delicate purposes; and the coarser kinds lose
considerable weight in the process. Break it into large lumps, and put
it into a very clean preserving-pan; measure for each pound a pint of
spring water if it be intended for syrup, but less than half that quantity
for candying or making barley-sugar. Beat first apart (but not to a
strong froth), and afterwards with the water, about half the white of
an egg for six pounds of sugar, unless it should be very common,
when twice as much may be used. When they are well mixed pour
them over the sugar, and let it stand until it is nearly dissolved; then
stir the whole thoroughly, and place it over a gentle fire, but do not
disturb it after the scum begins to gather on the top; let it boil for five
minutes, then take the pan from the fire, and when it has stood a
couple of minutes clear off the scum entirely, with a skimmer; set the
pan again over the fire, and when the sugar begins to boil throw in a
little cold water, which has been reserved for the purpose from the
quantity first measured, and repeat the skimming until the syrup is
very clear; it may then be strained through a muslin, or a thin cloth,
and put into a clean pan for further boiling.
For syrup: sugar, 6 lbs.; water, 3 quarts; 1/2 white of 1 egg. For
candying, &c.: sugar, 6 lbs.; water, 2-1/2 pints: 5 to 10 minutes.
 TO BOIL SUGAR FROM SYRUP TO CANDY, OR TO CARAMEL.

The technicalities by which confectioners distinguish the different

degrees of sugar-boiling, seem to us calculated rather to puzzle than
to assist the reader; and we shall, therefore, confine ourselves to
such plain English terms as may suffice, we hope, to explain them.
After having boiled a certain time, the length of which will in a
measure depend upon the quality of the sugar as well as on the
quantity of water added, it becomes a thin syrup, and will scarcely
form a short thread if a drop be pressed between the thumb and
finger and they are then drawn apart; from five to ten minutes more
of rapid boiling will bring it to a thick syrup, and when this degree is
reached the thread may be drawn from one hand to the other at
some length without breaking; but its appearance in dropping from
the skimmer will perhaps best denote its being at this point, as it
hangs in a sort of string as it falls. After this the sugar will soon begin
to whiten, and to form large bubbles in the pan, when, if it be
intended for barley-sugar, or caramel, some lemon-juice or other
acid must be added to it, to prevent its graining or becoming sugar
again; but if wanted to candy, it must be stirred without ceasing until
it rises almost to the top of the pan, in one large white mass, when it
must be used immediately or laded out into paper cases or on to
dishes, with the utmost expedition, as it passes in an instant almost,
from this state to one in which it forms a sort of powder, which will
render it necessary to add water, to stir it until dissolved, and to
reboil it to the proper point. For barley-sugar likewise it must be
constantly stirred, and carefully watched after the lemon-juice is
added. A small quantity should be dropped from time to time into a
large basin of cold water by those who are inexperienced in the
process; when in falling into this it makes a bubbling noise, and if
taken out immediately after, it snaps clean between the teeth without
sticking to them, it must be poured out instantly: if wanted for sugar-
spinning, the pan must be plunged as quickly as possible into a
vessel of cold water.
 CARAMEL.

(The quickest way.)

Put into a brass skillet, or preserving-pan, some sifted sugar of the
finest quality, and stir it softly with a wooden spoon or spatula, over a
very gentle fire until it has become liquid; a pale or a deep tint may
then be given to it, according to the purpose for which it is required:
so soon as it is entirely melted, and looks clear, it is ready for use.
Pastry-cooks glaze small pastry by just dipping the surface into it;
and they use it also for nougat, and other confectionary, though it is
not in general quite so brilliant as that which is made by the
preceding receipt. When the sugar first begins to melt, it should be
stirred only just in that part, or it will not be equally coloured.
 BARLEY-SUGAR.

Add to three pounds of highly-refined sugar one pint and a quarter

of spring water, with sufficient white of egg to clarify it in the manner
directed in the last page but one; pour to it, when it begins to whiten,
and to be very thick, a dessertspoonful of the strained juice of a fresh
lemon; and boil it quickly until it is at the point which we have
indicated above. A few drops of essence of lemon may be added to
it, just as it is taken from the fire. Pour it on to a marble slab, or on to
a shallow dish which has been slightly oiled, or rubbed with a particle
of fresh butter; and when it begins to harden at the edges form it into
sticks, lozenges, balls, or any other shapes at pleasure. While it is
still liquid it may be used for various purposes, such as Chantilly
baskets, palace bonbons, croquantes,[176] cerises au caramel, &c.:
for these the vessel containing it must be set into a pan of water, and
it must again be liquefied with a very gentle degree of heat should it
cool too quickly. As it soon dissolves if exposed to damp, it should be
put into very dry canisters as soon as it is cold, and these should be
kept in a dry place.
176. These are formed of small cakes, roasted chestnuts, and various other
things, just dipped singly into the barley-sugar, and then arranged in good
form and joined in a mould, from which they are turned out for table.

Best sugar, 3 lbs.; water, 1-1/4 pint; white of egg, 1/4 of 1; lemon-
juice, 1 dessertspoonful.
 NOUGAT.

This is a preparation of barley-sugar, and almonds, filberts, or

pistachio-nuts, of which good confectioners, both foreign and
English, make a great variety of highly ornamental dishes. We must,
however, confine our directions to the most common and simple
mode of serving it. Blanch twelve ounces of fine Jordan almonds in
the usual way, wipe them very dry, split them in halves, and spread
them upon tins or dishes; dry them in a very gentle oven, without
allowing them to brown; or if the flavour be liked better so, let them
be equally coloured to a pale gold tint: they should then be often
turned while in the oven. Boil to barley sugar in a small preserving-
pan six ounces of highly-refined sugar, throw in the almonds, mix
them with it well without breaking them, turn the nougat on to a dish
slightly rubbed with oil, spread it out quickly, mark it into squares,
and cut it before it is cold; or pour it into a mould, and with an oiled
lemon spread it quickly, and very thin over it, and turn it out when
cool. It must at all times be carefully preserved from damp; and
should be put into a dry tin box as soon as it is cold.
Sugar, 6 oz.; almonds, 12 oz.
Another and more expeditious way of making it, is to boil the sugar
to caramel without any water, as directed at page 563: the proportion
of almonds can be diminished at pleasure, but the nougat should
always be well filled with them.
 GINGER CANDY.

Break a pound of highly-refined sugar into lumps, put it into a

preserving-pan, and pour over it about the third of a pint of spring
water; let it stand until the sugar is nearly dissolved, then set it over a
perfectly clear fire, and boil it until it becomes a thin syrup. Have
ready in a large cup a teaspoonful of the very best ginger in powder;
mix it smoothly and gradually with two or three spoonsful of the
syrup, and then stir it well into the whole. Watch the mixture carefully,
keep it stirred, and drop it often from a spoon to ascertain the exact
point of boiling it has reached. When it begins to fall in flakes, throw
in the freshly-grated rind of a very large lemon, or of two small ones,
and work the sugar round quickly as it is added. The candy must
now be stirred constantly until it is done: this will be when it falls in a
mass from the spoon, and does not sink when placed in a small
heap on a dish. It must be poured, or laded out, as expeditiously as
possible when ready, or it will fall quite into powder. If this should
happen, a little water must be added to it, and it must be reboiled to
the proper point. The candy, if dropped in cakes upon sheets of very
dry foolscap or other thick writing-paper laid upon cold dishes, may
be moved off without difficulty while it is still just warm, but it must not
be touched while quite hot, or it will break.
Sugar, highly refined, 1 lb.; water, 1/3 of a pint; ginger, 1
teaspoonful; rind of 1 large lemon.
 ORANGE-FLOWER CANDY.

Beat in three-quarters of a pint, or rather more, of water, about the

fourth part of the white of an egg, and pour it on two pounds of the
best sugar broken into lumps. When it has stood a little time, place it
over a very clear fire, and let it boil for a few minutes, then set it on
one side, until the scum has subsided; clear it off, and boil the sugar
until it is very thick, then strew in by degrees three ounces of the
petals of the orange-blossom, weighed after they are picked from
their stems. Continue to stir the candy until it rises in one white mass
in the pan, then lay it, as quickly as it can be done, in cakes with a
large spoon, upon thick and very dry sheets of writing paper placed
quite flat upon the backs of dishes, or upon trays.[177] Take it off
before it is entirely cold, and lay the candy reversed upon dishes, or
place the cakes on their edges round the rim of one until they are
perfectly cold; then secure them from the air without delay in close
shutting tin boxes or canisters. They will remain excellent for more
than a year. The orange-flowers will turn brown if thrown too soon
into the syrup: it should be more than three parts boiled when they
are added. They must be gathered on the day they are wanted for
use, as they will soon become discoloured from keeping.
177. As the heat of the boiling sugar would injure these, no good ones should be
used for the purpose.

Sugar, 2 lbs.; water, 3/4 pint; 1/4 white of egg; orange-blossoms, 3

oz.
Obs.—When sugar of the finest quality is used for this confection,
as it ought to be, it will not require the white of egg to clarify it.
 ORANGE-FLOWER CANDY.

(Another Receipt.)

The French, who are very fond of the delicious flavour of the
orange-blossom, leave the petals in the candy; but a more delicate
confection, to English taste, is made as follows:—Throw the orange-
flowers into the syrup when it has boiled about ten minutes, and after
they have simmered in it for five more, pour the whole out, and leave
them to infuse until the following day, or even longer, if more
convenient; then bring the syrup to the point of boiling, strain it from
the blossoms through a muslin, and finish it by the foregoing receipt.
 COCOA-NUT CANDY.

Rasp very fine a sound fresh cocoa-nut, spread it on a dish, and

let it dry naturally for two or three days, as it will not bear the heat of
an oven, and is too oily for use when freshly broken. Four ounces of
it will be sufficient for a pound of sugar for most tastes, but more can
be used at pleasure. Boil the sugar as for the orange-flower candy,
and when it begins to be very thick and white, strew in the nut, stir
and mix it well, and do not quit it for an instant until it is finished. The
pan should not be placed upon the fire but over it, as the nut is liable
to burn with too fierce a heat.
For almond-candy proceed in exactly the same way, but let the
almonds, either whole or split, be perfectly well dried in a gentle
oven, and do not throw them into the sugar until it approaches the
candying point.
 PALACE-BONBONS.

Take some fine fresh candied orange-rind, or citron, clear off the
sugar which adheres to it, cut it into inch-squares, stick these singly
on the prong of a silver fork or on osier-twigs, dip them into liquid
barley-sugar, and place them on a dish rubbed with the smallest
possible quantity of very pure salad oil. When cold, put them into tin
boxes or canisters well dried, with paper, which should also be very
dry, between each layer.
 EVERTON TOFFIE.

No. 1.—Put into a brass skillet or small preserving-pan three

ounces of very fresh butter, and as soon as it is just melted add a
pound of brown sugar of moderate quality; keep these stirred gently
over a very clear fire for about fifteen minutes, or until a little of the
mixture, dropped into a basin of cold water, breaks clean between
the teeth without sticking to them: when it is boiled to this point, it
must be poured out immediately, or it will burn. The grated rind of a
lemon, added when the toffie is half done, improves it much; or a
small teaspoonful of powdered ginger moistened with a little of the
other ingredients as soon as the sugar is dissolved and then stirred
to the whole, will vary it pleasantly to many tastes. The real Everton
toffie is made with a much larger proportion of butter, but it is the less
wholesome on that very account. If dropped upon dishes first rubbed
with a buttered paper, the toffie when cold can be raised from them
easily.
Butter, 3 oz.; sugar, 1 lb.: 15 to 18 minutes. Or, sugar, 1 lb.; butter,
5 oz.; almonds, 2 oz.: 20 to 30 minutes.
No. 2.—Boil together a pound of sugar and five ounces of butter
for twenty minutes; then stir in two ounces of almonds blanched,
divided, and thoroughly dried in a slow oven, or before the fire. Let
the toffie boil after they are added, till it crackles when dropped into
cold water, and snaps between the teeth without sticking.
Sugar, 1 lb.; butter, 5 oz.; almonds, 2 oz.: 20 to 30 minutes.
 CHOCOLATE DROPS.

Throw into a well heated metal mortar from two to four ounces of
the best quality of cake-chocolate broken small, and pound it with a
warm pestle until it resembles a smooth paste or very thick batter;
then add an equal weight of sugar in the finest powder, and beat
them until they are thoroughly blended. Roll the mixture into small
balls, lay them upon sheets of writing paper or upon clean dishes,
and take them off when they are nearly cold. The tops may be
covered with white nonpareil comfits, or the drops may be shaken in
a paper containing some of these, and entirely encrusted with them;
but it must be recollected that they will not adhere to them after they
become hard. More or less sugar can be worked into the chocolate
according to the taste; and a Wedgwood mortar may be used for it
when no other is at hand, but one of bell-metal will answer the
purpose better.
 CHOCOLATE ALMONDS.

When the chocolate has been softened, and mixed with an equal
proportion of sugar, as directed in the foregoing receipt, enclose
singly in small portions of it some almonds previously well dried, or
even slightly coloured in the oven, after having been blanched. Roll
them very smooth in the hand, and cover them with the comfits, or
form them like the almond shamrocks of page 574. Filberts and
pistachio-nuts may be substituted for the almonds with good effect;
but they also must be perfectly dry.
 SEVILLE ORANGE PASTE.

Wipe, and pare in the thinnest possible strips, some Seville

orange-rinds, and throw them into plenty of boiling water. When they
are extremely tender, lift them on to a large sieve reversed to drain;
press the water from them a little, and before they are quite cold,
pound them to the smoothest paste, and blend thoroughly with them
as much fine sifted sugar as can possibly be mixed with them. Roll
the mass out extremely thin, and with a very small tin-cutter form it
into cakes or leaves, or any other shapes, and then dry it in a VERY
gentle oven. Store it in close-shutting boxes as soon as it is cold. A
little choice prepared ginger may be added to it in the pounding
when it is liked.
Paste of lemon or citron-rind may be made in the same way.
CHAPTER XXVIII.

Dessert Dishes.
 DESSERT DISHES.

A well-selected and well-arranged rice-crust, however simple in its

character, may always be rendered agreeable to the eye and to the
taste: but in no department of the table can so much that is attractive
to both be more readily combined; and at the present day an unusual
degree of luxury is often displayed in it, the details of which,
however, would be out of place here. Forced strawberries of
magnificent size, and of the best varieties, brought by culture and
management all to perfection on the same day, and served on their
plants, in the pots in which they are grown, concealed in others of
porcelain or of chased silver, are amongst the expensive novelties
now commonly introduced at costly dinners of display, and may
serve as an illustration of it.[178]
178. To these may be added miniature fruit trees in full bearing placed down the
centre of the table, and intermingled with the choicest exotics.

For common occasions, a few dishes of really fresh fruit tastefully

disposed and embedded in large green leaves, will be all that is
required for a plain summer or autumn rice-crust; and at other parts
of the year such as are appropriate to the season; but from the
immense variety of cakes, biscuits, confections, ices, bonbons, and
other sucreries (some of them extremely brilliant in appearance), and
of fruit native and foreign, fresh, dried, and preserved in every
possible manner which are adapted to them, desserts may be
served in any kind of style.
 PEARLED FRUIT, OR FRUIT EN CHEMISE.

Select for this dish very fine bunches of red and white currants,
large ripe cherries, and gooseberries of different colours, and
strawberries or raspberries very freshly gathered. Beat up the white
of an egg with about half as much cold water, dip the fruit into this
mixture, drain it on a sieve for an instant, and then roll it in fine sifted
sugar until it is covered in every part; give it a gentle shake, and lay it
on sheets of white paper to dry. In England, thin gum-water is
sometimes used, we believe, for this dish, instead of the white of
egg; we give, however, the French method of preparing it. It will dry
gradually in a warm room, or a sunny window, in the course of three
or four hours.
Obs.—This is an inexpensive dish, which if well prepared has the
appearance of fine confectionary. The incrustation of sugar much
increases too the apparent size of the fruit. That which is used for it
should be of the best quality, and fine and dry. When it becomes
moist from the fruit being rolled in it, it will no longer adhere to it as it
ought.