1

Navigating Afghanistan's Interim Government: Challenges and

Opportunities for Pakistan
Author: Mr Mohsin Ali

On August 15th, 2021, the Taliban reemerged to power in Afghanistan after two decades as a result of
the withdrawal of US-led forces from Afghanistan. They announced a new caretaker government in
Afghanistan on September 7th, 2021. The interim government has since been engaged with the outside world
politically, economically, and strategically. Its efforts are to bring stability within Afghanistan and seek
legitimacy for their interim government. The great powers and regional states are concerned with
humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. Once a buffer state between the British and Russian Empire,
Afghanistan, continues to be significant geo-politically and geo-strategically due to its location on
crossroads between Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East and its access to significant natural
resources. Even though the US-led forces engaged in two decades-long intervention in Afghanistan, the
contemporary situation remains a matter of concern for the neighbouring states and the world as a whole.
The United States and China have significant interests in Afghanistan, where the focus of
Washington is counterterrorism and establishing a democratic rule. While Beijing seeks a stable and
peaceful Afghanistan that would allow Beijing to extend its regional connectivity initiatives, such as Belt
and Road Initiative. Such initiatives do not correspond to US interests as they complement Chinese
engagement with regional states. The rivalry of interest between the US and China in the region also shapes
the nature of engagement of the rest of the world with Afghanistan where a number of countries have put
sanctions on Afghanistan, while others are engaging with it in the domain of military/security, information,
trade or connectivity.
In the case of current Afghanistan Peace and economic stability are mutually inclusive. Therefore, a
number of international players including the US, Germany, the European Union, UAE, Qatar, Türkiye,
India, and Pakistan are providing substantial economic aid to the interim government of Afghanistan. The
US recently provided $327 million in aid to Afghanistan in September 2022 and the United Nations along
with its partners is aiming at seeking $4.6 billion to aid the people of Afghanistan in the year 2023.
Moreover, China has recently signed an economic and infrastructure development agreement with
the interim government of Afghanistan, which include the mining of precious stone, marble, and other
mineral resources such as coal. Furthermore, Kabul has signed a $150 million annual agreement with
Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company (CAPEIC), a Chinese company, to drill for hydrocarbon
resources in northern parts of Afghanistan. China has also proposed the North-South trans-Afghan railway
project, which would offer connectivity between South Asia and Central Asian regions via Afghanistan.
Other states which share borders with Afghanistan include Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan. It has the potential to serve as a transit route between the aforementioned states. Being located
at the heart of all these important countries, it also shares social, cultural, and political values with the
neighbourhood. Being a land bridge between three regions, Afghanistan has the ability to offer a central role
in regional cooperation. Additionally, Afghanistan holds significant geostrategic importance, for regional
states and Great Powers, as it is rich in natural resources.
The lack of recognition acts as an impediment to the normalization of bilateral ties with countries in
the region and beyond that has a direct impact on its economy. Afghanistan, due to a history of instability
and conflict for almost four decades and a struggle for power among local factions based on ethnicity, has
also suffered a great loss to its infrastructure and economy.
Due to limited access to resources, inadequate infrastructure, and disrupted bilateral and multilateral
trade, the new government is greatly dependent on foreign aid. However, the diplomatic missions of a
number of countries including India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Pakistan, Qatar, Turkey, China, Kazakhstan, and
the United Arab Emirates are functional in Afghanistan, without recognizing the government in Kabul,
which are somehow providing aid to and engaging with the interim government in Afghanistan to function
 2

well. Additionally, international actors are convening conferences like the OIC and Samarkand conferences
to discuss initiatives to stabilize Afghanistan.
Taliban’s emergence to power, has, on the other hand, shaped the entire security dynamics of the
region. The new interim government of Taliban wants to establish peaceful diplomatic ties on the basis of
mutual cooperation. However, it is facing a crisis of international recognition, which makes Taliban
government a de facto regime. The chaos and instability in Afghanistan offer a breeding ground for
extremism and terrorism, which poses a threat within and beyond the territorial limits of Afghanistan,
especially neighbours.
Pakistan, being a neighbouring state, is facing certain challenges. Relations between Afghanistan and
Pakistan are shaped by ethnic and social ties, shared border and security interests. Pakistan’s security is
significantly threatened by the presence of militant groups across the border, which also happens to be a
security concern for both states.
Economic instability in Afghanistan has intensified joblessness, hunger, and migration. The number
of documented migrants from Afghanistan to Pakistan since US withdrawal till March 2022, has crossed 0.1
million. Also, it has triggered a sense of insecurity for Pakistan as it could set the grounds for the
reemergence of terrorism on Afghan soil, which would have implications across the globe.
Pakistan has played a significant role in convening the OIC Ministerial Conference 2022-23. The aim
of the conference meeting was to propose and develop a mechanism to prevent and mediate conflicts and
establish peace. Pakistan is also concerned to facilitate stability factors in Afghanistan while engaging with
regional and global stakeholders.
Additionally, Indian involvement in defence affairs of Afghanistan has become a matter of concern
for Pakistan as recently Afghanistan has received and welcomed Indian-trained Afghan defence cadets. It
raises concerns for Pakistan about India's influence and strategic ties, which could have an effect on the
balance of power in the region.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has offered some opportunities for Pakistan. With the
emergence of an interim government in Afghanistan, which is more sovereign in its policymaking, Pakistan
could strengthen its trade and economic relations. Afghanistan being a landlocked country is highly
dependent on its neighbours for international trade.
Keeping in view the above, Afghanistan, due to its geo-strategic location holds significance for
regional actors like Pakistan and great powers like US and China. Furthermore, stability in Afghanistan is in
the interest of all stakeholders, including the US, China, and Pakistan. Pakistan is facing both challenges and
opportunities in the wake of this new development. Issues, such as economic instability, employment crises,
poverty within Afghanistan, and triggered migration to Pakistan have been a matter of concern for Pakistan.
Challenges, like chances of the reemergence of terrorism and Indian engagement with Kabul and its defence
affairs, have ignited Islamabad’s concerns. However, the phenomenon of the emergence of the interim
government has also introduced some opportunities as well, which Pakistan can utilize in the best interest of
the region and beyond.