Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Feasibility Study
GD-3
Volume # GDMP-FS/GD-3.II
Final Report
Feasibility Study
Volume # GDMP-FS/GD-3.II
August 2007
and
YESHI-BER CONSULT
© 2007 The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia / Ministry of Water Resources
P.O. Box 5744
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Telephone +251-11-661 1111
Telefax +251-11-661 0710
Internet www.mowr.gov.et
E-mail water@mowr.gov.et
All rights reserved.
This report has been prepared by Lahmeyer International GmbH (Germany) in association with
Yeshi-Ber Consult (Ethiopia) for the Ministry of Water Resources of the Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia.
The work on this report has been funded by the African Development Bank Group and the Federal
Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.
The Ministry of Water Resources does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.
The boundaries, colours, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do
not imply any judgement on the part of The Ministry of Water Resources concerning the legal status
of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work
without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The Ministry of Water Resources
encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the
work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request
with complete information to The Ministry of Water Resources, Head of Basin Development Studies
and Water Utilization Control Department, P.O. Box 5744, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Overview
This volume is part of the Integrated Resources Development Master Plan for the Genale-
Dawa River Basin in Ethiopia. The entire study has been carried out between 2004 and
2007 (Gregorian calendar) by a joint venture of Lahmeyer International Consulting
Engineers of Germany and Yeshi-Ber Consult of Ethiopia for the Ethiopian Ministry of
Water Resources.
This Master Plan is part of a series of integrated resources development master plan
studies for Ethiopia’s major river basins.
The overall goals of the Master Plan are defined in the Ethiopian Water Resources
Management Policy (WRMP), which sets guidelines for water resources planning,
development and management. This policy aims at enhancing and promoting all national
efforts towards the efficient, equitable and optimum utilisation of the available water
resources of the country for significant socio-economic development on sustainable basis.
The specific objectives of the study are to derive a master plan that will contribute to the
sustainable development and poverty reduction in the Genale-Dawa River Basin and
make optimum use of all natural, physical, human and animal resources with the minimum
possible adverse environmental impact.
Location of the Genale-Dawa River Basin in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa
Location of
R
# Khartoum
Y ERITREA
E
Asmara Y
# Genale-Dawa
D
15
River Basin
S
E
A
N
DE
Blue
F A
White Nile
O
DJIBOUTI LF
GU
Nile
N
Y
# Djibouti
A
ay
D
Ab
10
S U
Addis AbebaY
#
ETHIOPIA
A
AwasaS#
I
L
Ge
A
na
le
Da
N
M
wa
5
A
O
Dolo OdoS#
E
Moyale Lugh
S
S
#
C
S
# Baidao
S
#
O
Marsabit El WakS#
S
# S
# Bardera
N
Wajir S# Y
# Mogadishu
UGANDA
A
Jub
K E N Y A
I
a
IsioloS#
N
0
NyeriS# S
#
I
Lake Chisimayu
Victoria 0 200 400 km
Y
# Nairobi
35 40 45 50
The results of Phase I and II are contained in a series of reports which are organised into
four parts (seventeen volumes and one map portfolio).
This feasibility study report has been produced during Phase III of the Master Plan Study
and is presented as a stand-alone document.
Volume IV – Annexes
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Content
Table of Contents
List of Tables vi
List of Figures viii
List of Annexes (Vol. IV) ix
List of Drawings (Vol. V) x
Acronyms, Glossary, Units etc. xi
Executive Summary xii
1 Introduction 1
1.1 The Ministry of Water Resources and Master Plans 1
1.2 The Genale-Dawa Master Plan Study 1
1.3 Previous Studies on the GD-3 Project 2
1.4 Present Feasibility Study of the GD-3 Project 2
1.5 Structure of the Report 3
1.6 Associated Reports 3
2 The Markets for New Electricity Generating Plant in Ethiopia 4
2.1 General 4
2.2 Electricity Market in Ethiopia 5
2.2.1 Organization of the Power Sector 5
2.2.2 Present Generating Capacity 6
2.2.3 Demand Forecast 6
2.2.4 EEPCo’s Generation Expansion Plan 10
2.2.5 Candidate Electricity Generating Projects/Plants Competing with
GD-3 12
2.3 Electricity Market in Kenya 15
2.3.1 Organization of the Power Sector 15
2.3.2 Present Generation Capacity 15
2.3.3 Demand Forecast 16
2.3.4 Expansion Plan for Kenyan Power System 16
2.3.5 Candidate Electricity Generating Projects/Plants Competing with
GD-3 17
2.4 Conclusions 18
2.4.1 Market Selected for GD-3 18
2.4.2 Further Aspects for Consideration 18
3 Project Physical Setting 20
3.1 General 20
3.2 Topography of the Main Project Sites 20
3.2.1 Dam Site Topography 20
3.2.2 Powerhouse Site Topography 21
3.2.3 Reservoir Topography 22
3.2.4 Impact of the Topographic Setting on Layout and Design 23
3.3 Geology 23
3.3.1 Regional Geology 23
3.3.2 Project Geology 24
3.3.3 Dam Site 26
ii Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Content
6.6.1
Results for GD-3 – Dam Type, Dam Height and Installed Capacity
Factor 54
6.6.2 Results for GD-3 – Tunnel Routes 58
6.6.3 Results for GD-3 – Underground Powerhouse 58
6.6.4 Results for GD-3 – Effect of Upstream Regulation by GD-2
Hydropower Plant 58
7 Reservoir - Filling and Operation 59
7.1 Introduction 59
7.2 Reservoir Filling 59
7.3 Reservoir Operation Simulation 60
7.4 Results of Reservoir Operation Simulation 64
7.4.1 Base Case 64
7.4.2 Sensitivity Cases 71
8 Dam 72
8.1 Dam Design – Introduction 72
8.2 Physical Conditions at the Dam Site 72
8.2.1 Geology and Seismicity 72
8.2.2 Hydro-Meteorological Conditions 74
8.3 Basis for Dam Layout and Dam Design 76
8.3.1 Operating Levels 76
8.3.2 River Diversion Concept 76
8.4 Dam Axis and Dam Type 76
8.4.1 Dam Axis 76
8.4.2 Selection of Dam Type 77
8.5 RCC Dam Design 79
8.5.1 Dam Freeboard 79
8.5.2 Excavation and Treatment of the Dam Foundation 80
8.5.3 RCC Dam Structure and Stability Analysis 81
8.5.4 Construction Materials for the RCC Dam 88
8.5.5 RCC Mix and Properties 88
8.6 Preliminary Temperature Control Criteria 90
8.6.1 Heat of Hydration and Thermal Stresses 90
8.6.2 Permissible Temperature Differential and Permissible Peak
Temperature 91
8.6.3 Placement Temperature of Concrete 92
8.6.4 Methods for Temperature Control 93
8.7 Dam Construction Aspects 93
8.7.1 Initial Placement of RCC 93
8.7.2 Transport Equipment 93
8.7.3 Production Rates 94
8.7.4 Differential Height between Blocks 94
8.7.5 Full-Scale Trial 95
8.8 Dam Instrumentation 96
8.8.1 Objectives of Instrumentation 96
8.8.2 Items of Monitoring 96
8.8.3 Arrangement of Measurement Systems 96
8.9 Summary of Principal Dam Features and Dimensions 99
9 Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures 100
9.1 Introduction 100
9.1.1 General 100
9.1.2 Project Summary 100
9.1.3 Genale (GD-3) Hydropower Project – Data Sheet 100
9.1.4 Hydropower Scheme Longitudinal Profile 103
9.2 River Diversion Works and Bottom Outlet 104
9.2.1 River Diversion Works 104
9.2.2 Mid-Level Outlet Works 109
iv Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Content
List of Tables
Table 0.1: Genale (GD-3) Multipurpose Hydropower Project - Summary of Project
Characteristics xx
Table 2.1: Power Plans Installed in the ICS (status – mid 2006) 11
Table 2.2: Committed Additions to the ICS (status - mid 2006) 11
Table 2.3: Fuel Prices for Ethiopia 13
Table 2.4: Performance and Operating Data for Candidate Thermal Plant - in
Ethiopia 14
Table 2.5: Unit Generation Costs (USc/kWh) of Oil-Fired Plant – Ethiopia 14
Table 2.6: Power System Demand Forecast 2005-2025 16
Table 2.7: Fuel Prices for Kenya 17
Table 2.8: Performance and Operating Data for Candidate Thermal Plant - in
Kenya 17
vi Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Content
List of Figures
Figure 0.1: Project Location in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa xiii
Figure 0.2: Schematic Section through the GD-3 Reservoir and Power Scheme xv
Figure 0.3: Genale Hydropower Cascade xv
Figure 2.1: Future HV Transmission Lines to Kenya and Somalia 4
Figure 2.2: Historical Development of Energy Generation and Peak Power Demand in the
ICS 7
Figure 2.3: Typical Daily Load Curves for Weekdays and Sundays 7
Figure 2.4: Seasonal Load Characteristics in the ICS during 2005/06 8
Figure 2.5: EEPCo’s Target Capacity vs Committed Capacity 12
Figure 2.6: Kenya’s Least Cost Generation Expansion Plan, 2006-2026 17
Figure 3.1: Elevation-Area-Storage Curve of GD-3 Reservoir Area 22
Figure 3.2: Logita and Genale River Profiles 30
Figure 3.3: Isohyetal Map for the Genale Project Region - (Annual Rainfall – mm) 31
Figure 3.4: Distribution of Rainfall at Stations in or close to the Genale Catchment 32
Figure 3.5: Mean Monthly Streamflow Profile - Genale River at Chenemasa 33
Figure 6.1: UCOST - Build-up of Compound Rates 48
Figure 6.2: Optimisation of Dam Type 56
Figure 6.3: Optimisation of Full Supply Level 57
Figure 6.4: Optimisation of the Installed Capacity Factor 57
Figure 7.1: Reservoir Filling Time – Probability of Exceedence 60
Figure 7.2: Reservoir Monthly Inflows (m³/s) 65
Figure 7.3: Reservoir Monthly Turbine Flows (m³/s) 66
Figure 7.4: Reservoir Monthly Outflows (Turbine + Spill) (m³/s) 67
Figure 7.5: Reservoir Monthly Water Levels (m asl) 68
Figure 7.6: Monthly Continuous Power (MW) 69
Figure 7.7: Comparison of Reservoir Inflows and Outflows – Time Series 70
Figure 7.8: Comparison of Reservoir Inflows and Outflows – Duration Curves 70
Figure 8.1: Rainfall and River Flows at Dam Site 75
Figure 8.2: Direct Cost of Dam, Spillway and River Diversion 78
Figure 8.3: Initially Recommended Overall Combined Gradation for the RCC 89
Figure 8.4: Estimated Compressive Strength vs. Age 89
Figure 8.5: Estimated Adiabatic Temperature Rise of RCC 90
Figure 9.1: GD-3 Hydropower Scheme Longitudinal Profile 104
Figure 9.2: Rating Curve at Dam Site 106
Figure 10.1: Average Seasonal Water Levels in GD-3 Reservoir 138
Figure 10.2: Typical Turbine Selection Diagram Rated Net Head (HNR) versus (QR)
Rated Flow 141
Figure 10.3: Typical Specific Speed (nS) versus Rated Net Head (HNR) 142
Figure 10.4: Specific Flow (Q13) versus Specific Speed (ns) 144
Figure 10.5: General Layout of Francis Turbine, Spiral Case and Draft Tube 144
Figure 10.6: Turbine Performance at Rated Net Head 145
Figure 10.7: Water Column Starting Time (Tw) versus Machine Starting Time (Tm) 147
Figure 10.8: Typical Installation of Draft Tube Flap Gate 150
Figure 11.1: Power Factor Versus Price, Weight and Losses 159
viii Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Content
3.1 Geology Project Area - Geological Map by Geological Survey of Ethiopia (1999)
3.2 Project Area - Location of Boreholes
3.3 Project Area - Summary of Borehole Logs (Sheets 1 to 6)
3.4 Hydropower Scheme - Geological Map
3.5 Hydropower Scheme - Geological Section
3.6 RCC Dam - Geological Site Map
3.7 RCC Dam - Geological Section along Axis
6.1 Power Scheme Hydropower Scheme - Longitudinal Section from Power Intake to Tailrace Outfall
6.2 Civil Works Hydropower Scheme - Tunnel Cross-sections
6.3 Hydropower Scheme - Layout from Surge Tank to Tailrace Outfall (1 of 2)
6.4 Hydropower Scheme - Layout from Surge Tank to Tailrace Outfall (2 of 2)
6.5 Hydropower Scheme - Longitudinal Section from Surge Tank to Tailrace Outfall (1 of 2)
6.6 Hydropower Scheme - Longitudinal Section from Surge Tank to Tailrace Outfall (2 of 2)
6.7 Power Intake - Plan and Vertical Section
6.8 Surge Tank - Plan and Sections
6.9 Emergency Gate Chamber - Sections
6.10 Emergency Gate Chamber - Sections
6.11 Headrace and Tailrace Manifolds - Sections
6.12 Tailrace Outfall - Sections
6.13 Underground Powerhouse - Longitudinal Section Through Unit Centerlines (Section A-A)
6.14 Underground Powerhouse - Cross Section through Unit Centerline (Section B-B)
6.15 Underground Powerhouse - Cross Section through Drainage Sump (Section C-C)
6.16 Underground Powerhouse - Plan of Machine Hall - EL. 839.52
6.17 Underground Powerhouse - Plan of Generator Floor - EL. 835.52
6.18 Underground Powerhouse - Plan of Turbine Floor - EL 831.12
6.19 Underground Powerhouse - Plan of Valve Floor - EL. 826.18
6.20 Underground Powerhouse - Plan of Drainage Gallery
6.21 Switchyard - Diesel Generator and Fuel Storage Tank
6.22 Access Roads - Typical Sections and Details
x Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Content
Units
GWh gigawatt - hour
kV kilovolt
m metre
m/s metre per second
m3/s cubic metres per second
m asl metres above sea level
mm millimetre
MPa megapascal
MVA megavolt - ampere
MW megawatt
Pa pascal
Executive Summary
Introduction
This Executive Summary complements the Report on the Feasibility Study of the Genale
(GD-3) Multipurpose Hydropower Project. It is aimed at two sets of readers, namely:
! the executive decision makers who require key information without the background
detail, and
! the technical readers who require an overview of the study approach and its results
before entering into the detail.
The summary includes information drawn from the associated report prepared within the
same study framework, namely the Report on the Environmental Impact Assessment of
the Genale (GD-3) Multipurpose Hydropower Project.
xii Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Executive Summary
Project Location
The project area is located some 400km (air distance) south-south-east of Addis Ababa
and some 200km (air distance) north of the border with Kenya. The scheme, including the
reservoir and power waterways, extends over a river corridor some 55km long. The
approximate centroid of the project area lies at latitude 5º 38' North and longitude 39º 43'
East (see Figure 0.1 and Drawing 1.1, Volume V).
ERITREA
#
Y Khartoum
R
Asmara #
Y
E
D
15
S
E
A
EN
AD
OF
LF
Lake Tana DJIBOUTI GU
Y Djibouti
#
A N
ay
Ab
U D
10
le
Ni
te
hi
S
W
Addis Ababa #
Y
ETHI OPIA
Awasa S# #
S
Goba
Genale (GD-3) Multipurpose
Dila S# Hydropower Project
Genale-Dawa River Basin
W ey
Ú
Ê
Gen
#
S
# Hargele
ale
S
Negele Filtu
A
#
S
5
I
#
S Da
Yabelo
L
w a
A
M
Dolo Odo
O
#
S
#
S
S
Mandera #
S Lugh
Lake Turkana Moyale
#
S
Baidao
#
S
N
El Wak S#
A
E
Marsabit S# #
S Bardera
C
#
Y Mogadishu
O
UGANDA Wajir #
S
Jub
N
a
A
I
K E N Y A
D
N
I
Isiolo S#
0
Nyeri S# #
S Chisimayu
35 40 45 50
electricity at between 8.0 and 11.4 USs/ kWh, depending on crude oil prices. The planned
hydropower schemes would generate electricity at between 3.0 and 4.5 USc/kWh.
In Kenya, the hydropower resources are largely exhausted and according to the current
expansion plan, electricity will have to be imported and/or new thermal plant
commissioned by the year 2010. GD-3 could not be commissioned by that date, but
thereafter the demand in Kenya for imported electricity is forecast to rise rapidly and GD-3
coming on stream in 2014 is well placed to meet this demand. The viable alternatives (or
competitors) to GD-3 in Kenya are fossil fuel fired power plants. The most attractive fossil
fuel fired plants would generate electricity at between 7.7 and 12.2 USc/kWh, depending
on crude oil and coal prices.
From the above it is clear that GD-3 could supply the electricity markets in both Ethiopia
and in Kenya. Although the generation expansion targets set in Ethiopia will require
massive investments in new generating capacity, there are several very attractive
hydropower schemes in the planning pipeline – in other words competition will be stronger
in Ethiopia than in Kenya. In Kenya, hydropower resources have been largely exhausted
(max 270 MW, and expensive) and competitors of GD-3 will be expensive fossil fuel fired
plant. The sale of electricity to Kenya will bring valuable foreign currency into Ethiopia
which could finance much needed infrastructure and/or public service projects in the
energy, transport, health and education sectors.
Based on the above, the present feasibility study has developed GD-3 to feed into the
Kenyan electricity market. This will in no way prevent the scheme from supplying the
domestic Ethiopian market, but by electing to feed into the Kenyan market, the economic
and financial indicators will be significantly more attractive.
Project Description
The GD-3 Hydropower Project comprises a large Roller Compacted Concrete dam and an
underground power scheme. The 110m high dam will create a huge reservoir with a
surface area of some 98km² and a total storage of almost 2,570 million m³. The power
scheme comprises a 12,400 m long TBM driven headrace tunnel, a 120m high surge
shaft, a steeply inclined 216m deep pressure shaft, a 285m long high pressure headrace
tunnel, an underground powerhouse accommodating 3 x 84.7 MW Francis turbine
generator units, a tailrace surge chamber and a 1,480m long tailrace tunnel. A schematic
section through the reservoir and power scheme is shown in Figure 0.2. The location plan
of the main components is shown in Drawing 1.2 (Volume V).
The scheme exploits a total gross head of some 280 m to generate on average 1,640
GWh of energy per year. A 230 kV double circuit transmission line will convey this energy
295 km south-west to the town of Mega close to the border with Kenya. A converter
station at Mega and a 520km long 500 kV DC transmission link will feed the energy into
the Kenyan power grid at at Nairobi or Eldoret, close to Kenya’s border with Uganda. As
such, the project could be a major element of an inter-African power trading arrangement.
The GD-3 Hydropower Project will be the first development in a cascade of schemes on
the main Genale River. Two further hydropower schemes – known as GD-5 and GD-6 –
and an irrigation scheme – the Lower Genale Irrigation Project - are foreseen downstream
on the same Genale River (see Figure 0.3). The huge GD-3 reservoir will provide the
capacity to regulate the seasonal flows of the Genale River and the attractiveness of the
three downstream schemes owes much to this regulation capacity provided by GD-3. As
such, the downstream schemes should not be commissioned before GD-3.
xiv Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Executive Summary
Figure 0.2: Schematic Section through the GD-3 Reservoir and Power Scheme
1,500
1,400
1,300
Elevation (m asl)
1,200
Sur g e T ank
R eser vo i r F SL
1,100
Po wer W at er way
1,000
G enal e R i ver
900
Genale Donta
0 5 10 20 km
Scale: 1:750,000
Dam # GD-3
Powerhouse
"
5°30'N Ge 5°30'N
n
Bitata
al
eR
iv e
r
Powerhouse
"
Dam
Powerhouse #
"
#
Negele Dam GD-5 GD-6
Siru
39°30'E 40°0'E
Environmental Issues
A terrestrial vegetation survey - done in the course of the field investigations - confirmed
that there are no designated or protected areas of terrestrial ecological interest that will be
affected by the proposed scheme. However for more than eighty percent of the
surrounding community, the forest serves as source of medicine for curing different types
of human as well as livestock diseases. Some of the medicinal plants include Borassus
aethiopum, Grewea bilosa to cure animal disease; Direbofa (oromifa) for man attacked by
insect; Handada (oromifa)-for stomach ache and evil eye. Honey is also one of the other
forest products in the area.
xvi Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Executive Summary
None of the fish species occurring in the Genale-Dawa River are listed as threatened and
the current exploitation level by the existing riverine fishery is far too low to cause concern
in this respect.
The project area is neither contiguous with nor in close proximity to any of the nationally
protected areas like National Parks, Wildlife Sanctuaries, National Priority Forest Areas
and Controlled Hunting Areas. According to the Cultural Section Head of the Zones, the
Genale (GD-3) dam site and the reservoir area are not regarded as archeologically and
culturally important.
The Genale (GD-3) project will have a lifetime of more than 1,000 years at current
sedimentation levels. The creation of a ‘natural’ buffer zone between the inundated versus
non-inundated land is recommended for the well-being of wildlife, birds and other animals.
The GD-3 reservoir will flood some 98 km² of land, of which about 3,922 ha are productive
farmland. Realization of the proposed project will also have varying degree of adverse
direct impact on an estimated 727 households in twenty eight villages belonging to three
PAs. The number of households may not necessarily correspond to the number of
households affected by the loss of farmland. These Project Affected households will have
to be resettled but since there is 'unoccupied' land in their respective vicinities that could
accommodate sizeable numbers of affected farmers, the social upheaval should not be a
significant issue. An estimated 61% of the affected households prefer "Land for Land"
compensation and the remaining 39% prefer "Cash" compensation. Appropriate social
mitigation and compensation measures should be studied at the design phase of the
project and included in the Resettlement Action Plan.
There are no ethnic minorities or tribal people in and around the project area whose
traditional lifestyles could become compromised through the development of the proposed
Genale (GD-3) Multipurpose Hydropower Project. Therefore, no indigenous development
plan will be required.
Based on the results of the socio-economic survey, the attitudes of the local communities
and their leaders are positive to the proposed project provided that a resettlement plan is
properly and fairly implemented. Therefore, it is crucial to develop and implement an
integrated resettlement scheme in locations as close to the affected vicinities as possible.
In order to reduce the magnitude of impacts associated with land and property
expropriation, it is recommended that the implementing Authority of this project must report
to the Regional and Local authorities about the planned development and request them to
stop all future settlement and construction works within the proposed GD-3 reservoir areas.
Multipurpose Aspects
The chief role of the GD-3 project is the generation of hydro-electric power. Without
hydropower the project would economically not be feasible. However, if GD-3 were built,
this would trigger other benefits (and costs), thereby making GD-3 a multipurpose
scheme. The multipurpose aspects of the Genale (GD-3) Project include:
! water regulation and sedimentation reduction for downstream hydropower projects;
! effects on irrigation;
! changes in salinity patterns;
! fishery on the GD-03 reservoir;
! impacts on the Juba River;
! avoidance of thermal power plant and CO2 emissions;
! improved regional access;
! employment during construction;
! tourism.
Alternatives to GD-3
The increased availability of secure and reasonably priced electricity in Kenya and
Ethiopia is seen as fundamental to improving economic and social conditions in both
these countries. There are a number of energy sources, other than hydropower, that can
be tapped to produce electricity in commercial quantities. Gas, in exploitable quantities,
has been discovered in the south-east of the country close to the border with Somalia.
Unit generation costs will be high (estimated at well over 7 USc/kWh) since this potential
energy source is over 700 km from the country’s main load centres in an area where the
transport infrastructure is not well developed. There is also a competing plan to use the
gas to produce commercial fertilizer. Consequently the Government is not currently
pursuing plans to develop this as an energy source.
Coal has been discovered in Yayu, some 325km west of Addis Ababa. Investigations
have confirmed that there is enough coal of sufficient quality to fuel a power plant with an
installed capacity of some 100MW for some 35 years. This plant could feed base energy
into the ICS over the 8 to 9 month dry season, thus reducing the burden on the
hydropower schemes. The plant would close down during the wet season when hydro-
energy is plentiful. Currently, the area around Yayu has no industrial development and
Addis Ababa is the only load centre that could absorb 100MW of base power. Therefore
the high transmission costs will significantly increase the unit price of this energy. At the
present time, development of a coal fired power plant at Yayu have stalled due to high unit
generation costs and serious concerns about the impacts of mining and burning coal on
the local environment.
Exploitable quantities of oil have not been discovered within the borders of Ethiopia.
Electricity from this fuel source has to rely on foreign imports. The country has no coast
line and currently most of Ethiopia’s demand for refined oil products is transported either
from Djibouti or from the Sudan to Addis Ababa by fleets of road tankers. Both routes
involve transport distances approaching 1,000km. From Djibouti, the road within Ethiopia
is asphalted and all bridges are in reasonable condition. The route is likely to be further
upgraded within the next 10 to 15 years. However, within Djibouti the road is in a bad
condition. From Sudan, the road within Ethiopia is maintained in a good condition, but the
xviii Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Executive Summary
condition of the counterpart road in the Sudan is unknown and beyond the direct control of
Ethiopia.
Despite the supply drawbacks, the Government has invested in almost 80MW of oil
fuelled (diesel) generators in 2004. These plants are foreseen as emergency capacity –
they are not foreseen to participate in daily load coverage. The fuel transport and storage
costs make this a costly option, and it increases the countries dependence on factors
beyond its control (ie fuel price and fuel availability). The current railway from Djibouti has
little spare capacity, but there are plans to rehabilitate and upgrade the entire system.
Railway may reduce the transport costs slightly, but the other drawbacks will remain – no
control over fuel price and availability, and high fuel storage costs.
Wind is a source of renewable energy which is now providing small, but significant,
amounts of electricity to the European and North American national grids. The
Government is embarking on an investigation of wind potential in the country. Installation
costs are still significantly higher than for renewable energy hydropower plants, but these
costs have been dropping over the past decade. Information from 1983 on wind speed
and duration has been published in the National Atlas of Ethiopia (1988). The information
clearly shows that wind will not provide any significant amounts of firm energy – there are
significant periods of calm conditions throughout the country. A further drawback is that
the greatest proportion of wind energy appears to be in the rainy season between June
and September, thus coinciding with the period of greatest hydropower potential.
From the above, it is evident that oil fired electricity generation is a tried and tested
alternative to hydropower, but it is very expensive, it will drain the country’s foreign
currency reserves and it is an insecure source of energy. Other energy sources are
currently not serious competitors to hydropower generation in general and to GD-3 in
particular.
Implementation
The Genale (GD-3) Multipurpose Hydropower Project is feasible from the technical,
economic and environmental viewpoints. There are no legal obstacles to its development.
Such a worthwhile scheme, which will bring net benefits to the nation in general and the
local communities in particular, should be implemented at the earliest possible date.
Because its huge reservoir offers regulated flows to downstream projects, it is
recommended that at least the two proposed hydropower developments – GD5 and GD-6
– are included in a cascade development, with GD-5 and GD-6 coming on stream after
GD-3 (see Figure 0.3).
Under a conventional design and construction program, GD-3 could be commissioned by
mid to end of 2014 to sell 1,640 GWh of electrical energy annually into the Kenyan
national grid. The two downstream schemes – GD-5 and GD-6 – could be commissioned
thereafter at two year intervals to meet Kenya’s growing demand.
The foreign currency earnings generated by the sale of electricity will be available to the
Government of Ethiopia for financing new infrastructure, public service programmes and
industrial and commercial development thereby improving both social and economic
conditions in the country.
Table 0.1 presents a summary of the main characteristics of the Genale (GD-3)
Multipurpose Hydropower Project. This summary includes technical information, the cost
breakdown and economic parameters.
Table 0.1: Genale (GD-3) Multipurpose Hydropower Project - Summary of Project Characteristics
xx Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Introduction
1 Introduction
The total economic hydropower potential in the Basin was estimated to be some 1,200
MW with an annual generation of 5,500 GWh.
The best hydropower project by far was the Genale-Dawa 3 project (GD-3) with estimated
generating costs below USc 3.2 per kWh.
2 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Introduction
2.1 General
The optimal generating characteristics and the timing of construction of the GD-3
Hydropower Project will depend on the market or markets into which its electricity will be
sold. Given the location of the project relative to the largest concentrations of consumers
in the region, the two most obvious potential markets are the Addis Ababa area via the
Ethiopian ICS and the Kenyan national grid via a new HV transmission link. A third
potential market is Somalia (in particular the towns of Mogadishu, Baidoa and Kismayo).
Figure 2.1 shows the possible routing for the transmission lines connecting GD-3 to the
main grid in Ethiopia, to the Nairobi area in Kenya and to the main towns of Somalia.
Melka Wakena
#
S #Robe
S
#
Awasa S ETHIOPIA
175 km
250
km
$ GD-3 HEP
T
#
Negele S
SUDAN
3
Genale-Dawa 00 km
km
5
River Basin
29
Dolo Odo
#
Mega S # 80 km
S
Lugh SOMALIA
#
S
Moyale
#
S
37
0k
m
165 km
km
0
52
#
Bardera S
MOGADISHU Y
#
UGANDA
300 km
KENYA
N
A
# Eldoret
S
E
#
Isiolo S
C
O
N
26
Chisimayu S
#
0
A
km
I
D
N
I
Y
# NAIROBI 0 100 200 Kilometers
In the present assessment of potential markets, the Somali market has not been
considered - it is currently very small (with a potential of the order of 50 to 100MW) and,
crucially, the political environment is very unstable. However, at some time in the future,
this market will almost certainly become available to electricity generating projects in
south-east Ethiopia. Indeed, the future markets for Ethiopian electricity in general are
likely to expand far beyond the borders of Ethiopia – into the Sudan and westwards to
Uganda and northwards to Egypt. Today, transmission interconnections with the grids of
Djibouti and the Sudan are in the final planning phase. There are firm plans, being
4 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
The Markets for New Electricity Generating Plant in Ethiopia
financed by bi-lateral donors, to create a cross-border power trading grid within the Nile
Basin countries. These developments will greatly increase the export market for
competitively priced electrical energy and Ethiopia is ideally placed to exploit these vast
new markets.
With regard to the local market in Ethiopia, the main consumer centre is Addis Ababa
located some 400 air-km (and 600 road-km) from the GD-3 project. This market could be
supplied by reinforcing the existing 230kV network or through the planned 400kV network
The closest node in the 230kV interconnected grid is at the Melka Wakena HPP some 175
air-km (and 250 road-km) from GD-3. With regard to the Kenyan market, preliminary plans
to interconnect the two national grids have already been drawn up by both countries. The
main node in Ethiopia will be at the town of Mega, some 50km north of the Ethiopia-Kenya
border and some 295 road-km from the GD-3 site. A converter station will be erected at
Mega to convert high voltage AC to high voltage DC. From this converter station, energy
will be transmitted some 465 air-km probably to the town of Eldoret in western Kenya
through a 500kV DC link, or else to Nairobi..
This report assesses the above two markets in terms of forecast electricity supply and
demand and in terms of candidate electricity generating projects with which GD-3 would
compete. For both markets, in Ethiopia and in Kenya, the organization of the respective
electricity market is briefly described, followed by the electricity demand forecast and each
country’s generation expansion targets. In Ethiopia, these expansion targets are not
based on the classical models of organic demand growth, rather they are based on the
Federal Government’s goals of promoting social and economic development and reducing
poverty. After the expansion targets, the schedule of committed generation projects to
meet each of the two countries’ ambitions is presented. By comparing the committed
schedule with the targets, the timing of new generating capacity in both markets is
identified.
This assessment confirms the earliest date that the GD-3 Hydropower Project could enter
each of the two markets under consideration and indicates the economic unit generating
costs of candidate plants competing in the same markets.
The specific changes that have been made recently are delineation of the operation and
regulatory function and liberalise the sector to promote private investment. Accordingly the
Electricity Proclamation (No. 86/97) was issued in July 1997. This proclamation sets up
the Ethiopian Electric Agency (EEA) as regulatory agency and establishes the Agency’s
major duties and responsibilities as well as licensing provisions for operators in the power
sector.
The power sector reform is part of the general scheme of reforming the economy,
primarily through a shift from what was a command-type economic policy to a market-
oriented policy. This aims to improve the efficiency and financial viability of the public
utility, EEPCo, for sustained growth of the public supply system as well as ensuring
participation by private investors. The following key reform measures have been taken:
! EEPCo was re-established as a public, commercial enterprise by a Ministerial Council
Regulation in 1997.
! The scope of private sector participation in power generation was broadened by
proclamation No. 116/1198.
! Electricity Operations (supply) Regulation was issued as a Ministerial Council
Regulation No. 49/1999 in May 1999.
6 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
The Markets for New Electricity Generating Plant in Ethiopia
700 3,500,000
600 3,000,000
Power (MW)
400 2,000,000
300 1,500,000
200 1,000,000
100 500,000
0 0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
600
Thursday, 21st September, 2006
Sunday, 24th September, 2006
500
400
Load (MW)
300
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
It shows two pronounced peaks on a working day - one in the morning and one in the
evening. The evening peak is significantly higher than the morning peak. The peak
demand in the morning is to a large extent caused by the use of electric injera cookers in
private households, and therefore has increased in importance with the expanding use of
these electric cookers. Injera is the local staple food, popular with most Ethiopians. On a
Sunday, there is only a single peak in the evening.
Average monthly electricity demand in the ICS for the year 2005/06 is shown in Figure
2.4. There is no pronounced seasonal pattern. Electricity consumption by the agricultural
sector is marginal, thus seasonal variations in agricultural activity have no impact on
electricity demand. Changes in temperature over the year are moderate, so there is no
seasonal demand for space heating or cooling.
400
350
Mean Monthly Power Demand (MW)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
8 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
The Markets for New Electricity Generating Plant in Ethiopia
The reviews of those load forecasts therefore regularly resulted in downward revisions of
the projected energy sales, since projections considerably exceeded actual sales in the
period between the last forecast and the update.
In 1998, the LEK JV of Germany developed a forecast based on separate projections for
several major tariff categories. Three demand scenarios were established, namely a
Reference (or median) Scenario, a High Scenario and a Low Scenario. The High and Low
Scenarios defined upper and lower bounds within which future demand would be
expected to grow with a high degree of confidence. The projections of the LEK JV forecast
were as follows:
Forecast of Peak Power Demand (MW)
2005 2010 2015 2020
High Scenario 621 890 1,269 1,799
Reference Scenario 543 747 1,013 1,351
Low Scenario 460 617 819 1,068
Forecast of Energy Generation (GWh)
2005 2010 2015 2020
High Scenario 1,951 4,446 6,334 8,983
Reference Scenario 1,860 3,731 5,058 6,748
Low Scenario 1,758 3,081 4,087 5,334
Since 1998, actual demand has developed within a range defined by the Reference and
the Low Scenarios.
In 2002, Acres International of Canada updated the demand forecast. The projections of
Acres International are as follows:
Forecast of Peak Power Demand (MW)
2005 2010 2015 2020
Target Scenario 455 648 926 1,322
Moderate Scenario 455 619 823 1,090
Forecast of Energy Generation (GWh)
2005 2010 2015 2020
Target Scenario 2,292 3,265 4,667 6,663
Moderate Scenario 2,292 3,120 4,149 5,496
These latest projections are in the same range as those of LEK JV in 1998. However,
these forecasts fail to reflect two important factors – firstly, a much improved economic
climate within the country and secondly, the reforms taking place within EEPCo. In 2004,
almost 300MW (184 MW Gilgel Gibe and 89MW emergency diesel) of new generating
capacity has been brought on stream. Construction of another 720MW (300MW at Tekeze
HPP and 420MW at Gilgel Gibe II) is well under way, while the preparatory works (road
and camp construction) for the Gilgel Gibe III HPP (1,800MW) and for the Beles HPP
(460MW) have already begun. Reforms within EEPCo are accelerating the planning of
new generation and transmission capacity and the rate of connections to the ICS.
Despite the foregoing, all the previous projections of electricity demand, even the most
optimistic, have one trait in common - they forecast a rate of social and economic
development which barely keeps pace with population growth. In particular, these
forecasts do not meet the aspirations of modern Ethiopians. Today Ethiopia’s population
stands at between 70 and 75 million and it is growing at a rate of some 2 million every
year. The total installed electricity generating capacity stands at some 755 MW – this
translates to some 10 Watts per head of population or a light bulb for every Ethiopian
family. This is one, if not the lowest per capita installed capacity in the world. This situation
is not the result of an inability or an unwillingness to pay for electricity – in many rural
areas of Ethiopia, the country’s poorest are paying well in excess of 15 USc per kWh to
operators of diesel generators for a few hours of light every evening.
Modern Ethiopians, the rural farmers as well as the urban professionals, want electricity
and they are willing to pay for it. They want to halt the clearing of forests for firewood, they
want to conserve the nation’s soils, they want to stop environmental degradation and they
want to promote educational, commercial and industrial development.
It has been estimated that to provide every Ethiopian family today with just the most basic
electricity needs of some 3 kWh per day (circa 1kW for 2.5 hours to cook two hot meals
and circa 120W for 4 hours of light in the evening) from the ICS would require a total
installed capacity in the ICS of some 3,500MW. Commercial and industrial requirements
to support sustainable development could easily add a further 500MW to this requirement.
Just to keep pace with the growing population, this electricity generating requirement will
grow annually by between 20 and 30MW, so that over the next decade, the total electricity
generating requirement of the ICS could be at the very least some 4,250MW. To reach
this target is a genuine challenge, but the benefits to the environment alone will be
immense with huge knock-on benefits for social and economic development.
Given the above, EEPCo has decided, with good justification, to ignore the previous
demand forecasts and to focus its expansion planning on meeting predefined generation
expansion targets.
This translates to an average growth rate in total electricity generating capacity exceeding
15% per year. In the following, the present generating capacity is identified followed by
committed additions in terms of capacity and scheduled commissioning date. A
comparison between the committed expansion plan and the target plan reveals the timing
and the size of the next additions to the generating capacity.
10 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
The Markets for New Electricity Generating Plant in Ethiopia
Table 2.1: Power Plans Installed in the ICS (status – mid 2006)
Dependable Firm
Installed Capacity (2) (3)
Plant Name Plant Type (1)
Status (MW) Power Energy
Year
(MW) (GWh/year)
Units MW/Unit Total MW
Koka Hydro 1960/2000 Existing 3 14.4 43.2 42.0 171
Tis Abay I Hydro 1964/2000 Existing 3 3.8 11.4 11.0 65
Awash II Hydro 1966/ Existing 2 16.0 32.0 32.0 126
Awash III Hydro 1971/ Existing 2 16.0 32.0 32.0 126
Fincha’a (I-III) Hydro 1973 Existing 3 33.3 99.9 97.0 394
Melka Wakena Hydro 1988 Existing 3 51.0 153.0 148.0 604
Chara Chara Hydro 1996 Existing 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15
Fincha’a IV Hydro 2003 Existing 1 34.0 34.0 34.0 137
Tis Abay II Hydro 2001 Existing 2 36.5 73.0 68.0 279
Gilgel Gibe Hydro 2004 Existing 3 61.3 184.0 183.0 642
Alemaya Diesel 1958 Existing 1 2.3 0.0 0.0 0
Dire Dawa Diesel 1965 Existing 1 4.5 4.5 3.4 30
Adigrat Diesel 1992, 93, 95 Existing 1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0
Axum Diesel 1975, 92 Existing 1 1.3 0.0 0.0 0
Adwa Diesel 1998 Existing 1 3.0 3.0 2.3 20
Mekele Diesel 1984, 91, 93 Existing 1 2.8 0.0 0.0 0
Shire Diesel 1975, 91, 95 Existing 1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0
Nekempt Diesel 1984 Existing 1 1.7 0.0 0.0 0
Ghimbi Diesel 1962, 84 Existing 1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0
Jimma Diesel Existing 1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0
Dire Dawa Emergency Diesel 2004 Existing 4 10.0 40.0 31.2 273
Awash Emergency Diesel 2004 Existing 10 2.4 24.0 18.7 164
Kaliti Emergency Diesel 2004 Existing 4 3.5 14.0 10.9 95
Aluto Langano Geothermal 1999 Existing 1 7.3 7.3 0.0 0
Gilgel Gibe III Hydro 2010 Committed 10 180.0 1800.0 1,720.0 (5) 4,300 (5)
7000
Target capacity
6000
Committed capacity
5000
Power (MW)
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
A comparison between the committed schedule and the target schedule shows that the
targets will be met, with only minor shortfalls, until 2010. In, or shortly after, 2010 the first
new addition to the ICS will be required in order to meet the target. By 2015, an additional
1,800MW of new generating capacity, over and above that which is presently committed,
will have to be in operation. Even with the modest goals underlying the target schedule,
the market for new generating capacity to supply the local Ethiopian market is enormous.
12 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
The Markets for New Electricity Generating Plant in Ethiopia
2.2.5.2 Oil
Exploitable quantities of oil have not been discovered within the borders of Ethiopia.
Electricity from this fuel source has to rely on foreign imports. The country has no coast
line and currently most of Ethiopia’s demand for refined oil products is transported either
from Djibouti or from the Sudan to Addis Ababa by fleets of road tankers. Both routes
involve transport distances approaching 1,000km. From Djibouti, the road within Ethiopia
is asphalted and all bridges are in reasonable condition. The route is likely to be further
upgraded within the next 10 to 15 years. However, within Djibouti the road is in a bad
condition. From Sudan, the road within Ethiopia is maintained in a good condition, but the
condition of the counterpart road in the Sudan is unknown and beyond the direct control of
Ethiopia.
Despite the supply drawbacks, EEPCo invested in almost 80MW of oil fuelled (diesel)
generators in 2004. These plants are foreseen as emergency capacity – they are not
foreseen to participate in daily load coverage. The fuel transport and storage costs make
this a costly option, and it increases the countries dependence on factors beyond its
control (ie fuel price and fuel availability). The current railway from Djibouti has little spare
capacity, but there are plans to rehabilitate and upgrade the entire system. Railway may
reduce the transport costs slightly, but the other drawbacks will remain – no control over
fuel price and availability, and high fuel storage costs.
From the above, it is evident that oil fired generation is a viable, albeit expensive and
relatively insecure, competitor to hydropower generation in general and to GD-3 in
particular. For comparative purposes, unit generation costs of two types of oil fired plant
have been estimated - diesel and combined cycle. Both can be operated largely on heavy
fuel oil (HFO), but light diesel oil (LDO) must be used during start-up and shutdown of the
plants.
Two fuel price scenarios were investigated, one for a crude oil price of 30 US$ and one for 60
US$ per bbl. For a mix of 90% HFO and 10% IDO the total costs of purchasing and
transporting the fuel from the Middle East to Dire Dawa via Djibouti are presented in Table 2.3.
The key performance and operating data of the two plant types are shown in Table 2.4.
Table 2.4: Performance and Operating Data for Candidate Thermal Plant - in Ethiopia
Installed Capital Fixed Variable Scheduled Forced Plant
Plant Capacity Cost OMR OMR Outage Outage Efficiency
(% of
(MW) (US$/kW) (US$/kW/a) (US$/kWh) (days/a) (%)
time)
Combined Cycle 3x80 789 6.3 0.0024 21 4 45.2
Medium Speed Diesel 20 900 10.1 0.0021 21 4 41.7
The resulting unit generation costs for these two plant types are given in Table 2.5 for a
50% load factor.
2.2.5.3 Wind
With regard to wind, EEPCo is embarking on an investigation of its potential. Wind
turbines are now providing small, but significant, amounts of renewable energy to the
European and North American national grids. Installation costs are still significantly higher
than for renewable energy hydropower plants, but these costs have been dropping over
the past decade. Information from 1983 on wind speed and duration has been published
in the National Atlas of Ethiopia (1988). The information clearly shows that wind will not
provide any significant amounts of firm energy – there are significant periods of calm
conditions throughout the country. A further drawback is that the greatest proportion of
wind energy in the Genale-Dawa River Basin appears to be in the rainy season between
June and September, thus coinciding with the period of greatest hydropower potential.
2.2.5.4 Hydropower
Hydropower has been recognized for decades as the single most valuable resource in
Ethiopia. The hydropower potential of the country has been estimated at some 30,000
MW. The existence of large rivers flowing in deeply incised valleys provides very attractive
conditions for medium to large scale hydropower schemes. On the downside, the
country’s climate is such that relatively large reservoirs are required to store the high flows
during the pronounced 3 to 4 month high run-off season for release during the remaining
drier months. This situation militates against the small hydropower scheme which, by
definition, does not have a large dam and reservoir. During the long dry season river flows
drop to very low levels, thus small schemes have very little firm generating capacity and
would have to be complemented by some other firm energy source.
Given the above background, the Government of Ethiopia is currently focusing on
developing the country’s hydropower potential in medium to large scale schemes.
However, in order to make the most effective use of limited financial resources the
expansion of that hydropower potential is being carefully coordinated with the expansion
of other sectors, particularly the transport and industrial sectors. Reliable transport routes
are required to construct and maintain the power generation schemes. Industries are
needed to use the resulting power to produce tradable goods. With this in mind the MoWR
and EEPCo are focusing on identifying and developing key river basins for hydropower
development. This will be a more effective use of financial resources because the
infrastructure (roads and transmission lines) to construct and maintain the new
hydropower schemes and to transmit the generated energy will be concentrated in
corridors between the main load centres and the key river basins. The Government
believes that if this infrastructure is put into place at an early stage, say for a first project in
a key river basin, then subsequent stages of that project and subsequent projects in that
river basin will be much more attractive to private investors because the basin
infrastructure will already be in place.
14 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
The Markets for New Electricity Generating Plant in Ethiopia
At the present time, most attention is being focused on new, and as yet uncommitted,
hydropower projects on the following river basins:
! The Gibe River and its tributaries with the Gilgel Gibe (Stages III and IV) and Halele-
Werabesa (Stages I and II) Hydropower Projects.
! The Abay River (Blue Nile) and its tributaries with the Chemoga-Yeda (Stages I and II)
and the main Abay River Hydropower Projects (Karadobi, Mendaia and Border).
! Baro-Akobo River with the Baro (Stages I, II and Genji Diversion) Hydropower Project.
Hydropower projects on other rivers are also being promoted, but the above river basins
are currently yielding hydropower projects with attractively low unit generation costs (ref.
Michael Abebe, Hydropower & Dams, Issue 6, 2005) and these will compete with GD-3 for
implementation. Of the above schemes, those that have been studied to a level sufficient
to define the principal cost and performance parameters are as follows:
Installed Energy Project Unit
Date of
Capacity Generation Cost Generation
Project Name Cost
Cost (3)
Estimate
(MW) (GWh/a) (M US$) (USc/kWh)
Gilgel Gibe III 1,800 6,000 n/a 3.4 2006
Gilgel Gibe IV 2,000 7,500 n/a n/a 2006
Halele-Werabesa (I and II) 422 2,030 474 3.0 2005
Chemoga-Yeda (I and II) 280 1,348 391 3.5 2005
Karadobi (1) 1,600 12,314 (2) 2,232 3.8 2006
(1)
Baro (Stages I, II and Genji) 896 4,636 1,315 4.5 2006
Geba (Stages I and II) 259 1,734 n/a 2.3 2004
(1): scheme recommended by Norplan/Norconsult/Lahmeyer.
(2): including the additional energy generated at downstream schemes (in the Sudan) without additional
investment.
(3): rate for discounting is 10%.
16 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
The Markets for New Electricity Generating Plant in Ethiopia
The key performance and operating data of the various plant types are shown in Table 2.8.
Table 2.8: Performance and Operating Data for Candidate Thermal Plant - in Kenya
Installed Capital Fixed Varibale Scheduled Forced Plant
Plant
Capacity Cost OMR OMR Outage Outage Efficiency
(% of
(MW) (US$/kW) (US$/kW/a) (US$/kWh) (days/a) (%)
time)
Coal Plant 150 1347 15.2 0.0034 35 6 30.6
Gas Turbine 90 488 4.3 0.0016 21 5 31.2
Combined Cycle 3 x 80 789 6.3 0.0024 21 4 45.2
Low Speed Diesel 50 1333 15.0 0.0032 21 4 43.4
Medium Speed Diesel 20 900 10.1 0.0021 21 4 41.7
The resulting unit generation costs for these options are given in Table 2.9 for a 50% load
factor.
2.4 Conclusions
2.4.1 Market Selected for GD-3
In Ethiopia, according to the current schedule of committed hydropower schemes, there
will be a requirement, and therefore a market, for additional electricity generating capacity
in or soon after 2015 in order to meet the Governments prospective targets. GD-3 could
easily be commissioned by that date and supplying the growing demand. The viable
alternatives (or competitors) to GD-3 are fossil fuel fired power plants and/or other
hydropower schemes in Ethiopia. The viable fossil fuel fired plants would generate
electricity at between 8.0 and 11.4 USs/kWh, depending on crude oil prices. The planned
hydropower schemes would generate electricity at between 3.0 and 4.5 USc/kWh.
In Kenya, the hydropower resources are largely exhausted and according to the current
expansion plan, electricity will have to be imported and/or new thermal plant
commissioned by the year 2010. GD-3 could not be commissioned by that date, but
thereafter the demand in Kenya for imported electricity is forecast to rise rapidly and GD-3
coming on stream in 2013/14 is well placed to meet this demand. The viable alternatives
(or competitors) to GD-3 in Kenya are fossil fuel fired power plants. The most attractive
fossil fuel fired plants would generate electricity at between 7.7 and 12.2 USc/kWh,
depending on crude oil and coal prices.
From the above it is clear that GD-3 could supply the electricity markets in both Ethiopia
and in Kenya. Although the generation expansion targets set in Ethiopia will require
massive investments in new generating capacity, there are several very attractive
hydropower schemes in the planning pipeline – in other words competition will be stronger
in Ethiopia than in Kenya. In Kenya, hydropower resources have been largely exhausted
and competitors of GD-3 will be expensive fossil fuel fired plant.
Based on the above, the GD-3 scheme will, for the present feasibility study, be developed
to feed into the Kenyan market. This will in no way prevent the scheme from supplying the
domestic Ethiopian market, but by electing to feed into the Kenyan market, the economic
and financial indicators will be significantly more attractive.
18 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
The Markets for New Electricity Generating Plant in Ethiopia
when hydro capacity is insufficient to meet indigenous demand. Under power trading
agreements with neighbouring countries hydropower sites within Ethiopia could be
developed at lower costs with smaller reservoirs and less resettlement. In an isolated
predominantly hydro based system like that of EEPCo, non-firm energy has no value. The
result is that existing and planned reservoirs are relatively large in order to guarantee a
high degree of regulation. With power trading agreements through transmission
interconnections with thermal systems, future reservoirs could be smaller. Firm energy
yields would be smaller but this would be compensated by higher non-firm energy yields
which could be sold to neighbouring grids or traded for firm energy during dry periods. The
advantages for Ethiopia are clear - financial profit through energy exports and lower cost
indigenous hydropower schemes requiring less painful resettlement programmes. This
environment of larger markets and lower capital costs will encourage investment and
allow the Government of Ethiopia to set ever more ambitious expansion targets.
3.1 General
In the following the principal characteristics of the physical environment within which the
GD-3 project has been developed are presented. These characteristics are grouped under
the following headings:
! Topography,
! Geology,
! Construction materials,
! Seismology,
! Hydrology,
! Sediment yield.
Some of the characteristics have been determined by direct observations in the field,
some have been gathered from published and/or archived information, while others have
been derived from analyses. In the latter case, the method of derivation is presented as
well as the characteristics themselves. In addition to presenting the natural characteristics
themselves, we have, as appropriate, identified (1) the impacts that these characteristics
have had on the process of selecting the preferred project layout and/or designing the
individual project components, or (2) the implications that these characteristics will or
might have on project implementation and operation.
1
Data source: Void-filled seamless SRTM data V1, 2004, International Centre for Tropical
Agriculture (CIAT), available from the CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90m Database: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org.
20 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Project Physical Setting
At the narrowest cross-section, the valley widths at different elevations are as follows:
Elevation Valley Width Width:Height
(m asl) (m) Ratio
1015 0 -
1050 170 4.9
1100 340 4.0
1150 520 3.9
1200 680 3.7
1250 900 3.8
1300 1,190 4.2
1350 >4,000 >12
The ratios of width:height at this cross-section would not suit an arch dam but will suit, in
terms of costs related to topography, an embankment dam or an RCC dam. The
topographic setting will not limit dam height (at least not until crest elevations above
1300m asl). There are no low saddles or narrow ridges in the vicinity of the dam or around
the reservoir rims that would require closing and or sealing at reservoir levels up to 1300m
asl.
1,059 3 34 1,120
1,110
1,067 7 76
1,100
Elevation (masl)
1,076 18 192
1,090
1,084 30 385 1,080
Surface
1,092 43 676 1,070 Storage Area
1,050
1,109 75 1,675
1,040
1,117 91 2,339
1,030
1,124 106 3,026 1,020
Storage (Mm3)
1,137 135 4,595
The valley upstream of the GD-3 dam site offers only minimal storage below elevation
1070m asl. However, above that elevation up to elevation 1130m asl and above, very
large amounts of storage are available. The very limited storage at lower elevations
means that floods during construction will not be greatly attenuated and water levels at the
dam site will rise to relatively high levels during river diversion. A further impact is that
immediately after reservoir impoundment begins, the reservoir water level will rise
relatively quickly. The very large storages available up to 1130m asl and above mean that
very high degrees of flow regulation, firm energy generation and flood attenuation will be
possible.
22 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Project Physical Setting
3.3 Geology
A full report on the geological studies is contained in Annex A of Volume IV. In this
chapter 3.3 a summary is given.
basalts emanating from these fractures and fissures and interspersed by pyroclastics in
the form of agglomerates and tuffs ejected from volcanoes.
Major displacement accompanied by tilting along regional fault systems such as in the
Ethiopian Rift Valley, started during the middle Tertiary, approximately 37 million years
ago. Subsidence of large crustal blocks along near vertical fault zones created graben-
type depressions along the Rift Valley and elsewhere. These earlier flood basalts known
as the Ashangi Formation in the north and east and the Jimma volcanics in the south and
west were followed by younger flood basalts and shield volcanoes. In the project area the
Ashangi flood basalts overlie the sedimentary rocks about 100km to the northeast. The
nearest basalts form a small remnant of Tertiary basalts overlying basement gneisses
about 10km to the north west of Negele along the road to Awasa, where the road to
Genale Donte and to the dam site turns off. The youngest volcanic rocks are of
Quaternary age and consist of alkaline basalts and trachytes. They form the Bale
Mountains about 60km north of the dam site in the headwaters of the Genale River.
24 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Project Physical Setting
It is difficult to see much sign of gneissic or schistose texture in the granite outcrops but
the petrographic analyses by EIGS describes all the pegmatoidal granitic rocks as schist
or gneiss or mete-granite, i.e. the pegmatoidal granites have all been metamorphosed to
some extent.
The remnants of schist and gneiss encountered in the pegmatoidal granites are normally
rich in biotite with a well developed foliation or cleavage.
It is difficult to see any indication of structure in the outcrops of the pegmatoidal granites
but on three dimensional stereo images of the aerial photographs, there appear to be
some form of structures. These are possibly related to tectonic folding or to some form of
intrusive structure related to the folded structures in the older basement rocks. The dam
axis appears on the stereo images to be located on an anticlinal structure, approximately
on and parallel to the axis.
In the basement rocks downstream of the power house, the EIGS geological map shows
foliation and fold axes striking about 330° N, or about 30° west of north. The strike varies
between NW and N and the foliation generally dips at about 45°, varying between about
30° and 60° towards the west or south west. In the area of the power house, many similar
orientations of the foliations and contacts between granite and gneisses or schists have
been observed. However there are numerous remnants of the older rocks where the
foliations and contacts are quite different and variable, showing that the structure of the
older rocks has been significantly disturbed during intrusion of the granite.
The stretch of river valley in which the proposed GD-3 dam is situated is a relatively
narrow gorge with a relatively steeper gradient compared to the sections of river in the
older gneisses and schists, both upstream and downstream. The terrain is relatively
complex compared to the more open terrain in the older basement rocks. There are many
cliffs, tor shaped outcrops, small inselbergs and major dome-shaped outcrops of granite
as well as single and piles of large rounded granite boulders. This morphology or scenery
is typical of granitic rocks in tropical parts of Africa.
These large and rounded boulders are typical of core stone weathering that occurs in
massive igneous rocks. The rounded rocks result from the preferential weathering along
joints and especially at the intersection of joints. The weathered rock is washed away
leaving a rounded relatively unweathered core stone. These core stones can be observed
at and around the dam site. They can be completely exposed and piled on top of each
other or they can still be on the ground surface and embedded in the surrounding
weathered rock. Several core stones of less weathered rock embedded in highly to
completely weathered rock were encountered in test pits on the dam axis.
Another geological phenomenon observed in the project area that affects excavations and
foundations in these massive granites is stress relief. These rocks were formed at great
depth and have locked-in high overburden stresses. When these rocks are exposed at
surface due to uplift and erosion, stress relief results in the formation of new joints. This is
especially prevalent in massive igneous rocks where there are relatively few joints for
stress relief to take place. These joints are generally parallel to the ground surface but
other orientations, including joints perpendicular to the stress relief joints, also occur.
Weathering then takes place along these stress relief joints. This explains why there are
often small core stones overlying massive un-jointed rocks. These stress relief joints are
generally open and permeable and those joints parallel to the surface are often hidden at
depth. In general, stress relief features occur only to about 25m below surface with a
gradual decrease in the opening of the joints with depth. In the dam site area it appears
only to occur to about 10m while on the power house ridge it appears to be down to about
40m. Stress relief should occur more readily on an unconfined ridge compared to a
confined valley, but the deeper stress relief may also be due to the presence of schists
and gneisses within the granites.
Two different processes, but resulting in similar features as stress relief, are caused by
thermal expansion and by swelling during surface weathering. These processes result in
thin slabs of rock varying in thickness from millimetres up to about a metre peeling off the
underlying bedrock. The process of thin layers of rock, spalling from the surface due to
thermal expansion and weathering is known as exfoliation.
Weathering in the dam valley is generally less than about 5m. In the 5 boreholes on the
dam axis the maximum was 4.4m. In the two coffer dam boreholes and power intake
borehole it was 8m. However weathering can take place to greater depths along isolated
joints. Weathering generally takes place down to the water table in open joints. In general
the Lugeon tests have shown that the rock mass at the dam site is generally tight below
6m but this could extend to 10 m or possibly more in places. In the power house area
weathering extends to about 15m on the ridge and about 9m in proximity to the river. This
deeper weathering is probably due to the presence of schists within the granites as the
foliated schists with a significant mica content are more prone to weathering. In the quarry
area weathering for some reason extends to at least 8m and up to nearly 30m in places.
This could be due to the presence of vertical jointing allowing preferential weathering.
Future drilling for quarry investigations should make use of angled boreholes to avoid
drilling down vertical fractures.
The limestones that overlie the pegmatoidal granites and older basement rocks on an old
erosion surface do not affect the project structures. The limestones occur at about 1400m
elevation and cap the ridges along the headrace tunnel route. They do not occur within
the reservoir so that there is no danger of leakage through karst formations. A sample of
limestone from the ridge above the tunnel axis was found to contain 75% calcite, 22%
fossils and 3% iron-oxide. The high fossil content results in a relatively weak rock and the
limestones are unlikely to provide a superior concrete aggregate than granite. They
should however be investigated in more detail.
The groundwater depths below ground surface measured in the boreholes are quite
variable. Although the groundwater table rises away from the river it rises irregularly. The
ground water is present primarily in open joints related to stress relief. The rock itself has
a very low primary permeability and the rock mass itself also has a low secondary
permeability as the joints are generally annealed by pegmatites. It is only near surface
that the rock mass has a higher secondary permeability due to open joints resulting from
stress relief.
26 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Project Physical Setting
through rock of generally good quality. However, open joints might be encountered in
places and would require special treatment.
Slopes around the powerhouse are gentle and stable with no unfavourable major joint
planes. Slopes along the upper penstock route are steep, but again no unfavourable
major joint planes exist.
3.4.2 Sand
Fine aggregate in the form of river sand or manufactured sand from the coarse aggregate
quarry is also required in large quantities. Sand was sampled and tested from two
tributaries of the Genale River. These are the Kilta River along the access track to the
dam site and the Kurawa-Dera River, about 3km downstream of the proposed power
house.
All the larger streams or rivers within the project area have sand along their courses but
the deposits are generally small and not economically workable for a large dam. The
sands along the tributaries and streams are generally also too coarse as they have not
been transported for sufficiently long distances to break down to smaller grain sizes.
There are significant terraces of sand exposed in the river channel during the low flow
season. These appear to consist of finer grained sands that could be suitable on their own
or blended with coarser river sands or crusher dust. These larger terraces can be
identified on the aerial photographs.
Alternatively sands can be manufactured by milling of suitable granites from a quarry.
3.4.3 Cement
Cement is available in Ethiopia from the Muger cement works in Shoa Province or from
Messobo in Tigray Province. It is understood that there are currently supply problems from
Muger. Both these cement works are quite distant from the site, especially the Messobo
works in Tigray separated by the Rift valley escarpment and in the case of Messobo by
the Abay and Tigray escarpments. Alternative sources in Kenya should be considered as
the local Jurassic limestones also occur in Kenya. Alternatively a new cement works in the
extensive limestone deposits in the Negele area could be justified in the same way that
the Messobo cement works was established for the construction of the Tekeze dam in
Tigray.
It is important that Mortar Bar Tests be carried out with the cement to be used together
with the sand and aggregates to be used for the concrete. This will be the only way to
ensure that there is no danger of alkali-silica reaction. The proposed cement should also
be analysed to assess the alkali content.
28 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Project Physical Setting
bank about 1km upstream of the dam, but this land is likely to be required for construction
yards.
There are similar materials in close proximity to the power house outfall where coffer
dams will be required.
3.5 Seismicity
Previous studies by international consultants have shown that the GD-3 dam site is
located in an area of low seismic hazard (Hazard Class I). Peak ground accelerations to
be used in the analysis of the structural stability of the major project structures are as
follows:
! Maximum design earthquake (MDE): 0.12 g
! Operating basis earthquake (OBE): 0.06 g
These accelerations are relatively low by world standards and will not significantly
influence the type and layout of project structures.
3.6 Hydrology
A full report on the hydrological studies is contained in Annex B of Volume IV. In this
chapter 3.6 a summary is given.
3.6.1 General
The catchment area draining to the GD-3 hydropower project covers 10,445km2 and
includes the upper and mid-sections of the Genale main river sub-basin. In the upper
section, the main river drainage system is defined by three principal tributaries – the
Upper Genale, Geberticha and Iya. These tributaries originate from the Sidamo Mountains
which form the watershed-divide between Genale and neighbouring Rift Valley and Wabe
Shebelle river basins. The highest point on the northern divide is Mount Korduro with
elevation around 3,750 m asl. Other mountain peaks with elevations exceeding 3,000 m
asl can be found in this area.
The longest river course which defines the Genale River originates as the Logita tributary
with headwaters in the Koro forest. The Logita river flows first westwards then south–west
and meets the major Gelana tributary at around 1,900 m asl. On this course the Logita
descends rapidly until meeting the Bonora tributary at elevation 1,500 m asl. At this point
the combined streams form the Upper Genale and Genale main river, which then flows
generally south-eastwards with a moderate gradient over the remainder of its course up to
the project site. Physiographic characteristics of the other major tributaries Geberticha and
Iya are essentially similar to those of Logita and Bonora.
The principal gauging station at Chenemasa is located in the mid river section at elevation
1,120 m asl and commands an area of 9,190 km² with a total river length of 250 km. From
the station to the GD-3 damsite, only small tributaries enter the main river. The
incremental distance along the river between Chenemasa and the GD-3 damsite is 39 km.
Elevation falls and relative gradients along the Logita tributary and Genale main river
reach up to the GD-3 damsite and beyond are presented in the longitudinal profile in
Figure 3.2.
3400
Logita-Genale river profile
3200 Major confluences
3000 Gauging stations
2800 Dam sites
2600
2400
Elevation (m a.s.l.)
2200
2000 Logita Station
30 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Project Physical Setting
Figure 3.3: Isohyetal Map for the Genale Project Region - (Annual Rainfall – mm)
13
1300 (
!
(
! Goba
Isohyetal Map Dodola 900
900
0 0
10
GD-3 / GD-6 Catchment
0
0
0
110
Mean Annual
12
1200
Rainfall (mm) 1300
1000
14
Isohyet (100 mm) A. Wendo 0 0
(
!
Road 150 0 0
140 0 13 14
River Basin 0 00
Hagereselam
(
!
1400 Delo Mena
Scale: 1:2.000.000 Dila !
( (
!
1300
00 1200
0 15
160
0
80
1400
1100
1400
Gena
le
1000
( Bidire
! Welmel
00
(
!
900
15
Kibremengist 0
60
800
1100
Da
wa
Hagere Maryam !
(
* GD-3
#
90
0
80
0
700
Dawa enale
#G
*
600
Negele
(
!
500
GD-6
600
700
© GDMP 2005
160
Rainfall (mm/month)
120
140
100 120
80 100
60
80
60
40
40
20
20
0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Rainfall (mm/month)
140
80
120
60 100
80
40
60
40
20
20
0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
160 140
140 120
120 100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20 20
0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
32 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Project Physical Setting
single peak in October is evident. A five month low flow season lasts from December to
April. The calculated monthly river flows at the GD-3 dam site are presented in Table 3.1.
200
18.1%
180 Annual Average: 89.2 m3/s 15.6%
15.1%
160
80
60 4.5%
3.7%
40 2.3%
1.7% 2.3%
1.6%
20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
1981 9.5 6.1 16.1 92.4 78.2 65.2 126.6 171.2 173.1 95.3 50.3 18.1 75.5
1982 8.8 6.4 9.1 32.2 118.3 97.4 129.1 158.0 199.4 173.6 99.0 46.5 90.3
1983 19.0 11.1 8.7 41.1 128.2 106.2 130.8 175.1 257.0 381.0 168.0 49.4 123.6
1984 15.7 4.8 3.1 6.5 32.0 77.6 93.7 156.1 230.5 133.0 54.3 18.5 69.0
1985 4.8 2.7 3.0 60.5 192.3 124.2 147.3 176.4 141.8 149.2 65.9 18.5 91.1
1986 5.3 3.9 2.9 34.1 107.3 142.7 115.0 111.7 223.3 147.4 47.3 23.0 80.6
1987 5.8 4.7 16.6 81.9 215.0 205.9 135.2 112.2 111.6 197.4 110.5 26.4 102.4
1988 11.2 5.5 4.8 23.0 58.4 64.3 167.0 237.4 159.7 307.6 65.3 15.1 94.1
1989 6.6 5.1 5.9 103.1 71.3 92.2 140.4 140.1 280.8 324.7 126.7 144.8 120.7
1990 65.0 46.7 91.2 159.4 107.6 116.4 103.7 195.5 148.7 123.9 55.1 21.0 103.1
1991 3.4 1.3 14.4 52.7 57.7 45.6 101.6 184.4 155.8 84.8 61.3 54.9 68.5
1992 47.2 41.2 32.3 22.5 14.5 46.3 115.3 142.0 190.1 393.3 145.7 78.7 106.3
1993 71.1 136.2 90.0 90.0 255.2 95.1 76.9 139.6 122.4 223.2 130.4 43.9 122.9
1994 27.0 19.4 24.5 47.1 154.0 150.5 213.2 263.1 179.8 183.9 124.6 60.2 121.3
1995 33.3 28.3 47.7 150.8 107.7 63.5 90.7 176.1 235.4 208.4 86.4 22.9 104.5
1996 17.8 12.6 8.3 53.4 147.3 291.0 159.3 207.8 246.8 126.8 38.7 16.4 110.7
1997 10.4 5.1 2.0 45.0 46.5 41.5 126.1 103.9 66.7 278.8 494.1 159.7 115.3
1998 187.1 117.0 50.2 54.4 143.2 70.3 139.6 202.8 193.0 368.8 112.7 27.5 139.4
1999 12.9 4.8 13.1 15.9 37.5 38.7 103.1 134.3 121.5 260.8 86.7 20.2 71.3
2000 4.8 2.1 1.2 5.7 127.2 29.8 65.4 149.7 151.6 277.7 200.1 42.5 88.7
2001 16.1 12.4 18.0 45.9 119.7 163.5 134.3 192.5 178.5 169.7 111.5 44.5 101.0
2002 23.2 9.9 21.7 42.4 59.6 48.0 76.0 114.4 98.8 111.9 47.0 51.8 59.1
2003 36.2 10.7 7.9 54.4 92.8 79.6 85.3 113.3 119.8 118.2 48.0 57.0 69.0
2004 35.7 27.3 11.1 44.7 67.2 55.6 72.5 148.7 184.5 166.9 91.3 40.8 79.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MEAN 25.0 18.8 18.2 50.5 98.9 91.1 121.8 164.4 175.2 197.4 103.1 40.8 92.5
MAX 187.1 136.2 91.2 159.4 255.2 291.0 213.2 263.1 280.8 393.3 494.1 159.7 139.4
MIN 3.4 1.0 1.1 5.7 14.5 29.8 65.4 103.9 66.7 84.8 38.7 6.6 59.1
STDV 34.0 30.5 22.4 36.3 55.2 53.9 32.9 39.6 48.1 86.7 81.6 33.7 20.3
The long term mean flow at the GD-3 site is estimated to be 92.5 m3/s – equivalent to
279mm per year. The driest year on record (2002) had a mean flow of only 59.2 m3/s,
while the wettest year on record (1998) had a mean flow of 139.5m3/s. Prolonged periods
of below average flow have been recorded in the recent past. In the 6-year period from
1999 to 2004, five of the years had below average flow. Similar conditions were calculated
to have occurred during the 1970’s and 80’s.
34 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Project Physical Setting
yield processes. It is well known that large, even huge, quantities of sediment are yielded
during the very rarest of short and intense storm events.
Despite all the above issues, a long term annual average suspended sediment yield of
221 Ton/km² has been estimated. To account for unmeasured bed load, a surcharge of
20% has been added, resulting in a total annual average sediment yield at the GD-3 site
of 265 Ton/km². This yield converts to an average inflow into the GD-3 reservoir of 2.8
MT/year. Therefore, over a 50 year operating period, some 140 MT of sediment will enter
the reservoir. Most of this sediment (95%) will be trapped and deposited over the reservoir
floor.
This sediment will reduce the active storage of the GD-3 reservoir and encroach on the
power intake and dam. However, given the huge available storage in the reservoir area,
this reduction will not be significant in developing the layout and type of project structures.
3.8 Conclusions
The physical environment in the project area imposes few constraints on the development
of a dam and hydropower scheme. The dam site can accommodate either a concrete
gravity dam or an embankment dam. The powerhouse site can accommodate either an
underground cavern or a surface structure. Between the two sites, the rock mass
conditions will pose relatively few problems for tunnelling.
While the physical environment imposes few constraints, it does favour certain layouts
and construction methods, as follows:
! The occurrence of high river flows during 7 months of the year and the lack of
significant flood storage in the river reach immediately upstream of the dam site
favours an RCC dam. An RCC dam can be raised during the low flow season to a
level above the flood level without costly diversion works. Overall construction time of
an RCC dam will be much shorter than that of an embankment dam, thus the risk of
interruption due to inclement weather is smaller for an RCC dam.
! The long distance between dam and power house sites and the consistent and strong
rock mass between the two sites favours driving a power tunnel with a TBM. The
advantages of using a TBM are:
− smooth tunnel surfaces, allowing section to be left unlined without excessive loss
of hydraulic head.
− less disturbance to the surrounding rock mass thus reducing support measures.
− much shorter construction time (advance rates are about 4 times higher than by
conventional Drill & Blast).
36 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Biological Environment
4 Biological Environment
science or of the endangered and threatened types. A few invertebrates were collected
from drift samples. These included chironomid larvae, nematodes, mosquito larva and
Ephemeroptera (mayflies) larva, chironomids (midges) and Gyrinid beetles (Coleoptera).
4.3 Birds
The Genale River area is rich in bird species. It supports a large population of birds
including some species that are vulnerable and under threat both in Ethiopia in particular
and in East Africa in general. Indeed the Ethiopian Wildlife and Natural History Society
has registered the area as one of the 73 Important Bird Areas (IBA) in Ethiopia. In
particular, the project area supports 23% of Ethiopia's Somali-Masai bird population. The
species officially recorded in the area, and for which the area is best known, include the
Prince Ruspolis Turaco, the White-winged Dove and the Jubaland weaver. During the
field survey of the project area, carried out as part of the present study, the following
species were also observed - the Hooded vuture, the White- backed Vulture, the Lappet-
faced Vulture, the Ovambo Sparrow hawk, several Kestrel Species, the Crested Francolin,
the Red- eyed Dove, the Blue-spotted wood Dove, the Orange-bellied Parrot, the White-
bellied Go-away Bird and the Little Bee-eater.
4.4 Fishery
The major fish species found in the Genale River are Barbus sp., Labeo cylindricus,
Varicorhinus sp., Synodontis sp., Anguilla sp., Mormyrops sp., Bagrus urostigma, Irvinea
orientalis, Clarias gariepinus and Malapetrurus electricus. The Genale-Dawa and Wabi
Shebele basins are the only river basins in Ethiopia where a diadromous fish, the eel
Anguilla sp. occurs, which migrates down stream to the ocean for spawning.
The eel, Anguilla bengalensis labiata (African mottled eel) is known to inhabit various
niches in the river system and penetrate far inland surmounting formidable barriers in its
upstream migration. This is apparently the reason for its widespread appearance in most
of the tributary rivers in the Genale River basin. It has been reported that the eel found in
the Genale River also occurs in the tributary rivers, like the Dawa, Awata, Weyb, Welmel
and Dumal Rivers, all of which join the Genale River below the prospective GD-3 dam
site. In the Genale River, the juvenile eel migrates upstream to feed and mature before
returning to the marine environment of the Indian Ocean to breed. The adult breeding eels
exploit the high river flows of the rainy season for their downstream migration to the
ocean.
None of the fish species occurring in the Genale-Dawa River Basin are listed as
threatened and the current exploitation level by the existing river fish stocks is far too low
to cause concern in this respect. The area is far from any industrial discharge and
irrigation and use of chemical fertilizers or pesticide was not observed or reported in the
area.
With regard to fisheries in the project area, quite a few of the rural communities depend on
river fish to supplement income and also as a cheap protein source in their diet. The most
common river fish available for sale in the local markets included Bagrus urostigma,
Barbus sp., Labeo sp., Clarias gariepinus, Irvinea orientalis and the eel Anguilla sp. The
Bagrus catfish was in highest demand and commanded a good price.
The main fishing areas on the Genale River, in the immediate vicinity of the GD-3 project,
include the river reach from the Donta Bridge to the proposed dam site. The fishing sites
identified by the fishers include such names along the bank as Ebbo, Sharkiftu, Melka
Oda, Dildiye, Tinike, Grisa, Tulu, Miya and Meda. Below the proposed dam site the fishing
sites identified include Buta, Koba Adi, Lugena, Melka Roka, Melka Bala, Melka wata,
Dulota and Meti Dolo, close to the tailrace outfall. The catch from these fishing sites is
taken to the market in Negele town for subsequent sale to local consumers. The fish,
gutted and cleaned, is transported mainly by animals and/or by foot from the lower
38 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Biological Environment
Chachofe/Buta site but also by car from the Donta site. Fish is sold mostly fresh, gutted
and cleaned.
The fishers indicated that their income from fishing represented a significant portion of
their livelihood. This income covers most of their supply needs like tea, sugar and oil etc.
including clothing from their income during the high fishing season.
The riverine fishery in the project area is not yet developed and there is the opportunity to
increase the production in this sector.
5 Socio-Economic Environment
5.3 Religion
Traditionally, religion is an important part of individual and community life in the project
area. The populations of the project area are predominantly followers of the Muslim
religion (97%) and the original settlers in the project area are Muslim-Oromo’s and the
area is dominated by Muslim Oromo traditions. Followers of the Christian religion are
slightly less than 3% of the total population of the project area.
40 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Socio-Economic Environment
5.6 Agriculture
Ethiopia is a predominantly agrarian country. About 86% of the country’s populations are
engaged in agriculture and create about 42% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and
85% of export revenues. Crops contribute to over 60% of the gross value of the
agricultural production, livestock and forestry having shares of 30% and 7% respectively.
The Ethiopian system of agriculture is characterized by a high fragmentation of land
holdings, low productivity and traditional systems of production.
Mixed agriculture (crop production and livestock rearing) is the main economic activity
practiced in the project area, livestock being dominant. The agricultural system in the
project area falls into the category known as the lowland agro-pastoralist and pastoralist
system. Low productivity and a traditional system of production characterize this
agricultural system in the project area.
Pasture and arable land prevails in the woreda of Liben, while woodland and pasture
prevails in the woreda of Medawelabu. The average cropland holding at woreda level is
1.5ha per household in Liben and 4ha per household in Medawelabu.
Crop Production
The production of crops in the area is carried out in parallel with rearing livestock. The
land use statistics indicate a relatively low population density and less fragmentation of
agricultural land in the area. The major crops grown in the project area are maize,
sorghum, teff, onion, tomato, pepper, sugarcane and banana which are cultivated on main
field and recession farms. With the exception of sorghum and teff, all other crops are
cultivated under irrigation and recession farms. In both rainfed and recession farming, the
maize crop occupies the largest area of the household land holding. Based on information
obtained from the Woreda Agricultural offices, over 93% of the total area under cultivation
is occupied by cereals with the remainder occupied by pulses, vegetables and others. In
addition to this rainfed agriculture, most of the project affected villages produced sugar
cane and various fruits using recession farming and traditional (diverting the river)
irrigation systems. Under this system farmers harvest two to three times a year.
Land preparation is carried out by oxen at the onset of the rainy season. Broadcasting is
the main sowing method in the area. The depth and frequency of ploughing varies
depending on the type of crops to be planted. Oxen are also used in the threshing
process.
Most of the farmers use hand weeding, but some apply herbicides on (2-4D) cereal farms.
The farmers are also using agro-chemicals against insects and plant diseases. The most
common insect pests in the area are armyworm, grasshopper, termite, cutworm, aphids
and stalk borer and the common diseases are rust, head smut, powdery mildew and late
blight.
Agricultural Service, Marketing and Constraints
Extension services provided to the rural community are inadequate, inefficient and
incapable of tackling the fundamental developmental constraints. A poor input supply
system and a shortage of the required quantities are the main problems of the input
delivery activities in the woreda. The Woreda Agricultural Development and Food Security
offices are the main credit providers. Most of the credit resources are given for agriculture-
based activities in kind and in cash especially for livestock fattening. According to woreda
officials, very weak repayment rates due to crop failure, institutional weakness and
reluctance have adversely affected the current credit provision.
Negele town is the major market centre for Liben and the surrounding woredas. Crop
products are easily supplied to the market and they fetch fair prices. With regard to the
woreda of Medawelabu, Bidre and Oberso are the major market centres. There, the
marketing system needs improvement on price information, access, transportation and
storage facilities.
5.7 Livestock
The rearing of livestock is an important component of the traditional peasant agriculture
system in the project area. The livestock resources of the project area comprise cattle,
sheep, goats, donkeys, mules, camels, poultry and bees. Cattle are the dominant
livestock group raised primarily for the production of draft oxen, replacement stock and
milk. Sheep and goats are kept as a source of cash income and sometimes for meat
42 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Socio-Economic Environment
during holidays and festivals. Other products obtained from livestock and of use to the
rural farming communities include dung used for fuel, skin and hides.
Livestock Population
The main livestock populations in the affected area are cattle, camel, sheep, goats,
poultry and equines. The total livestock populations of Liben and Medawelabu woredas
are 59,207 cattle, 4,004 sheep, 36,609 goats, 2,773 equines mainly (donkeys and mules),
17,739 camels and 21,728 poultry. The average livestock holding per household is
estimated to be 4 TLU and 20.6 TLU for the Peasant Association in Liben and Meda
Wolabo Woredas, respectively. In addition, farmers own 39,917 local and improved
beehives. The total livestock resource is therefore, calculated at 73,931.8 TLU.
None of the farmers in the project area possess improved livestock of any kind, except
pullets and cockerels distributed through the extension programme. Even these are in
small numbers. As a result, the livestock are of indigenous origin and the identified breed
types include:
! Cattle: Borena, Guji and Arsi,
! Sheep: Wanke (Black Head),
! Goats: Long-eared Somali,
! Camel: Harki (big size) and Gelebba (small size),
! Poultry.
Among the various cattle breeds, the Borena cattle breed is sub divided into Qorti and
Hayuna. The former are tall, with long, wide and deep body sizes while the latter are short
with smaller body sizes, short and tough necks, short naval flaps and smaller udders.
Although the rearing of indigenous livestock is an integral part of the local farming system,
production and productivity are very low. This is primarily associated with the low genetic
potential, poor nutrition and inadequate health, breeding and marketing services.
Livestock Feed Source and Diseases
The dominant livestock feed source is natural pasture comprising grazing lands, shrubs,
land unsuitable for cultivation including water-logged areas, steep slopes and road sides
in the cultivated areas. Some bush land provides additional feed to the browsing livestock
species.
The other source of livestock feed is obtained from crop residue of various food crops
including cereals, straw, stalks, hauls from pulse crops and oil crops. Crop residues are
stored and fed to animals during the dry months of the year when feed shortage occurs.
An additional feed source is aftermath from crops harvested. However, in terms of
quantity and quality both crop residue and aftermath are inadequate sources.
The livestock diseases common in the project woredas include internal and external
parasites, infectious diseases and blood parasites. Trypanosomiasis is also one of the
diseases affecting livestock in the project area. Tsetse infestation has gradually started to
invade altitudes above 2,000m range. The only institution providing livestock health
services in both woredas is the Wereda Office of Agriculture. The livestock health services
in terms of technical manpower and marketing infrastructure are inadequate and the
disease situation is serious and therefore, requires more attention in terms of better
animal health services.
The exposed metamorphic rock (Gneiss) along the Genale River do not contain any
fossils of anthropological and paleontogical importance. The area has no signs of
paleontological relics or archaeological artefacts of such importance as to hinder the
execution of the project.
According to the Cultural Section Head of the Zones, the GD-3 dam site and the reservoir
area are not regarded as archeologically or culturally important. According to the officials
and experts, there are also no plans to conduct archaeological or cultural studies in the
area.
44 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Scheme Optimization
6 Scheme Optimization
modelled. The total cost of the project alternative is subsequently computed as the sum of
all element costs included in that particular project alternative plus such add-ons as
indirect civil cost, contingencies or engineering and administration.
For each element a limited number of simple definition parameters (such as type, length,
width, elevation, slope, discharge, permeability etc) are required for the dimensioning and
the subsequent cost estimation.
The maximum operating - or full supply - level is specified by the program user. The
corresponding reservoir surface area is taken as 'inundated' area. EVALS determines the
dam crest elevation by adding a freeboard to the maximum surcharge computed for the
passage of the design flood through the reservoir.
For projects with a gated spillway, the program additionally carries out a flood routing
simulation to determine the maximum surcharge with one of the gates malfunctioning. If
that surcharge plus a reduced freeboard is higher than the normal maximum surcharge
plus freeboard, the dam crest level is raised accordingly.
The estimated level of sediment deposits at the power intake after expiration of a project’s
expected economic lifetime and a minimum required margin to the minimum operating
level are external input. Together they define the constraint for the minimum operating
level due to sedimentation, guaranteeing that sufficient head at the power intake level
during minimum drawdown condition is maintained. A second constraint is defined by the
minimum head at which the selected turbine type can still be operated.
EVALS automatically carries out the required flood routing simulations. Structures that
may be analysed include the dam/spillway and the cofferdam/diversion tunnel(s)
complexes.
For each scheme the reservoir operation model passes a series of monthly inflows
through the reservoir, with the objective to maximise the present worth of the hydroelectric
generation. Parameters in this analysis are the specific values for guaranteed capacity as
well as guaranteed and non-guaranteed energy.
Also the program automatically carries out a simulation of reservoir filling and indicates
how many months would be needed to fill the reservoir, starting impoundment in January,
February, and so forth.
EVALS carries out a simulation of reservoir sedimentation and determines the effect on
the power and energy production.
Program EVALS distinguishes between the civil costs and those for electro-mechanical
equipment and the transmission feeder line.
Civil construction costs (construction plant, fuel, material, labour, etc.) are country-
specific. Civil works costs are determined by multiplying the computed quantities of work
with the respective compound rate. Program EVALS obtains the compound rates for civil
works items from a dedicated data base created by the UCOST computer program
package. The cost of civil works for each element is determined by adding the costs of all
individual construction items involved.
In contrast, hydraulic steel structures, electro-mechanical equipment and the transmission
line are available as more or less 'final' products. Therefore international tender prices
were compiled; statistically analysed and cost functions were developed for major items
such as generators, transformers, turbines, etc. These cost functions were then
programmed and incorporated in EVALS.
For civil works and for equipment, element-specific 'miscellaneous cost' are added to
cover expenditures for all those minor items, which have not separately been considered,
expressed as a percentage of the costed items of the respective element.
The costs computed for all cost classes (civil works, electro-mechanical equipment and
transmission lines) are stored individually during execution of the program. Indirect costs
are added as a proportion of the direct costs. Class-specific allowances for contingencies
46 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Scheme Optimization
are computed as a percentage of the direct plus indirect costs. Summing up the above
cost results in the total construction cost. The basic project cost is the total construction
plus the costs for engineering, administration and supervision as well as client's own
costs.
After each run EVALS carries out a comprehensive project assessment resulting in a one
page summary listing the following key project parameters:
! plant factor,
! degree of regulation of the active storage,
! generated capacity, continuous power and annual energy output,
! present value of all project cost,
! specific cost of capacity,
! average and specific generation cost,
! energy production per million m³ of inflow,
! employment effect.
The economic performance of a project’s alternative with a specified installed capacity can
be quickly assessed by looking at its average generation cost in USc/kWh which are
evaluated by dividing the present value of cost for investment and for operation,
maintenance and repair (OMR) by the present value of the average annual generation
over the project lifetime. The program carries out a probabilistic analysis to study the
effect of starting with dry or wet year sequences on the specific cost of generation.
The minimum operating level is fixed according to sediment or turbine constraints. If the
reservoir operation study shows that this level is never or very seldom reached, it should
suitably be raised to reduce the costs of the intake and surge tank and to improve the
overall turbine efficiency.
Further elements of the cost estimate are then processed, including retaining walls,
access roads and bridges, as well as any special cost/benefit items.
Thereafter monthly reservoir operation studies are carried out with the objective to
maximise the present worth of the hydroelectric generation in terms of guaranteed and
secondary energy production and guaranteed capacity, whereby mandatory releases can
be taken into account. At all times the reservoir level is to remain between the full supply
level and the minimum operating level, when necessary accepting spill or restricted
outflows.
The program then carries out the reservoir filling and reservoir sedimentation simulations.
EVALS finally prepares a detailed overview of the entire cost estimation and evaluation
process.
Compound rates,
Principles Cost at site Unit rates for works
per element
Construction Excavation of all items relevant
equipment Rock to DAM
INTERFACE TO EVALS
Equipment per Hour Rockfill to SPILLWAY
basic prices as charged by contractor rates may be volume for all EVALS
dependent element types
The data base for UCOST contains, inter alia, lists of labour, equipment, construction
material and fuel costs and programmed procedures to convert these basic input data into
higher level compound rates, as shown in the above figure. The placing of one unit of
rockfill for instance may for instance require quarrying, loading, hauling, dumping and
compacting. Quarrying involves the use of a typical work crew, particular types of
construction machinery with a typical load factor, fuel consumption and depreciation, etc.
The compound rate for the aggregate work item ‘rockfill placing’ will be stored in the data
base and will later be used by EVALS to compute the costs of construction elements
which use rockfill.
48 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Scheme Optimization
For some works the compound rate depends to a significant extent on the quantity of work
or on certain physical parameters. For item ‘placing rockfill’ for example there are three
rates, namely for small, medium and large quantities and the EVALS would, depending on
the rockfill quantity, interpolate to get the appropriate compound rate. For tunnels the
situation is far more complex, and the compound rate for item ‘tunnel excavation’ depends
on the tunnel diameter, the tunnel length and the rock class.
While construction equipment - consisting of several hundred items in the UCOST list of
principle inputs - is generally imported and its international prices are known, other work
inputs may be locally sourced. This mainly refers to the various labour categories as well
as to cement, steel items, explosives and diesel fuel. Their cost are converted to
equivalent US$ using the current market rate of exchange.
6.2.4.2 Consumables
The price for diesel oil used is 0.80 US$ per litre, which includes delivery to and storage
on site. This is a price compatible with a crude oil price of US$60/bbl plus transport.
Bulldozer 1.9 m³ 67 kW 80
3.3 m³ 123 kW 148
11.9 m³ 276 kW 331
Crawl Loader 2.8 m³ 157 kW 209
Wheel Loader 2.0 m³ 90 kW 102
Hydraulic Crawl Excavator 2.3 m³ 155 kW 186
4.6 m³ 335 kW 402
Motor Scraper 8.4 m³ 131 kW 159
23.7 m³ 335 kW 494
Rear Dump Truck 35.0 t 336 kW 260
50.0 t 452 kW 384
85.0 t 649 kW 596
Motor Grader 101 kW 136
149 kW 200
Combined Vibrating Roller 6.5 t 51 kW 47
16.2 t 118 kW 138
Trailer Compressor 2.5 m³ 22 kW 17
5.2 m³ 40 kW 26
10.2 m³ 82 kW 42
Tower Crane (static) 40 m 31 kW 219
70 m 112 kW 506
50 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Scheme Optimization
Penstock Steel ton 4420 4000 30100 1.00 1.05 0.12 4420 4200 3465
Access Road km 291500 250000 500000 1.32 1.32 0.12 384780 330750 57558
Notes: Dam Rockfill WS-18 dam has huge volume, over 12 million m3
Tunnel Excavation LI by TBM, others conventional
Tunnel Lining LI price does not include formwork, the others include formwork
Reinforcement LI includes handling and placement, others put this into lining item
The GD-3 prefeasibility and the Consultant’s unit rates are quite compatible, except for
reinforcement and tunnel excavation. Reinforcement, in our case, includes delivery to the
site and bending, cutting placement and waste, which the PFS Consultant perhaps partly
incorporated into the price of concrete.
The WS-18 values seem to be somewhat erratic, with major deviations in tunnel
excavation and access road.
6.2.6 Add-Ons
In the determination of the Basic Project Cost the following cost were added to the direct
project cost:
Table 6.5: Add-Ons used to compute the Basic Project Cost
Main Item Add-Ons
Civil Works Direct Costs 20% Indirect Costs + 20% Contingencies
Equipment Direct + Indirect Costs 10% Contingencies
Total Construction Costs 10% Engineering and Administration
Basic Project Costs
(does NOT include escalation and interest during construction)
Indirect civil cost contain the preparation of the construction sites, camp installation, site
administration as well as bonds, insurances and contractor’s management costs and
profits.
Contingencies cover both the physical and financial components.
The possibility of a concrete arch dam was investigated, but the width/height ratio is
slightly above 4, indicating the dam site may not be suitable for the construction of arch
dams.
An RCC arch gravity dam could well be the least-cost solution. However there is not much
experience in building arch gravity dams using RCC. Almost all RCC dams which have
been built are gravity dams.
The range of alternatives investigated was substantial:
! 8 dam types
! 5 full supply levels, ranging from 1100 to 1140 m asl in 10 m steps
! 9 installed capacity factors, from 0.5 to 2.5 in 0.25 steps
! 3 head race tunnel alignments
! 2 power house alternatives, i.e. open-air and underground.
The resulting information with essential planning parameters is shown in Annex C (Vol. IV).
52 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Scheme Optimization
Table 6.7: Number of households to be resettled as a function of the Full Supply Level
Reservoir Cost Incremental Incremental
Level Area Volume Resettlement Energy Resettlement HH/Area dHH/dArea Energy/HH dEnergy/dHH
(m asl) (km2) (hm3) (HH total) (GWh/a) mUS$ (HH/km2) (HH/km2) (GWh/HH/a) (GWh/HH/a)
1110 77 1754 492 1541 13.04 6.4 6.4 3.13 3.13
1120 97 2631 696 1627 18.44 7.2 10.2 2.34 0.42
1130 120 3704 1683 1696 44.60 14.0 42.9 1.01 0.07
1140 150 5042 2187 1772 57.96 14.6 16.8 0.81 0.15
The proposed resettlement area is the Welmel Irrigation Project, studied at prefeasibility
level in Phase 2 of the GDMP. It will have a potential of 10,000 ha command area and will
cost about US$9,000 per ha. The distance between the future GD-3 reservoir and the
Welmel area is less than 100 km. Resettling households will receive, free of charge, 2 ha
of irrigated land, a house with water and electricity supply, a year of training, and tools and
seeds for the first three years of cultivation. This will make the farmers better off, they will
voluntarily emigrate to the Welmel Irrigation Scheme.
The irrigated land and the house are charged to the GD-3 Hydropower Project, which will
cover the development cost.
The total cost estimate for resettlement was then estimated as follows:
The estimates for resettlement cost was then added as a special cost item to the overall
project cost estimates, the sum of the increase according to the FSL of the GD-3 scheme
under investigation.
6.6.1 Results for GD-3 – Dam Type, Dam Height and Installed Capacity Factor
The following dam types were permitted:
! RCC Gravity (Alternative A, B, C and D)
! Concrete Gravity (G)
! Central RCC Gravity Section with Rockfill Wing Dams (K)
! Concrete Faced Rockfill (L)
54 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Scheme Optimization
The gravity dams had a downstream slope of 0.70 and an upstream slope of 1.0, whereas
the concrete faced rockfill dam section had an up and downstream slope of 1.40. The
excavation depths were taken as 8 m on the left bank, 5 m on the right bank and 2 m at
the river bed.
The Full Supply Level (FSL) should not exceed 1140 m asl. At this level it can take more
than 3 years to fill the reservoir, which artificially adds at least one year of waiting time to
the period of construction.
From a socio-environmental point of view the maximum FSL should probably not exceed
1120 m asl as the increase the number of households to be resettled jumps from about
700 to 1700 in between of the 1120 and 1130 contour lines. Also the costs for
resettlement rise steeply from 18 to 45 million US$.
The analysis was initially done for a FSL of 1120 m asl and installed capacity factors
ranging form 0.50 to 2.50.
Depending on the characteristics of the equivalent thermal plant, the power and energy
output of the GD-3 alternative, the oil price adopted, the acceptance of environmental cost
in the equation, and the cost of the HVDC transmission line to Nairobi the optimal dam
type and installed capacity factor vary, as seen in Table 6.9.
Table 6.9: Results for GD-3 Dam Type, Dam Height and Installed Capacity Factor
GD-3 Optimisation of Dam Type and Installed Capacity Factor for Various Conditions
A 2.00 A 1.00 A 1.00 Results for Full Supply Level for 1120 m asl
30 A 1.75 B 1.00 B 1.00 except for Alternatives A (110) and C (1030)
A 1.50 B 1.25 B 1.25 A, B and C are RCC Gravity Dams
By comparison the ICF values for the coal plant equivalent are rather high. This is due to
the high capital cost of the coal plant as opposed to the combined cycle and the MS diesel
plant.
It is not known at this stage what plant the GD-3 project will offset in the Kenyan power
system. It could be a coal plant, combined cycle or a medium speed diesel. It will probably
a mix of the three. The best solution is therefore a compromise. The above Table 6.9
shows for each condition the three best alternatives, which are the ones with the highest
NPV.
It may be concluded that for export of power to Kenya Alternative B which is a RCC
Gravity Dam with an installed capacity factor of about 1.25 is the best compromise. This
translates to a Full Supply Level of 1,120 m asl and an installed capacity of about 255
MW.
The combined NPV of the hydroplant and the HVDC interconnection varies with the
choice of equivalent thermal plant. If replacing a combined cycle unit, the NPV would be in
the order of MUS$ 200 for a crude oil price of 30 US$ per bbl without accounting for
thermal plant emissions and range to nearly MUS$ 1000 with a crude oil price of US$ 60
and full account of the emission penalties for the equivalent thermal plant. The associated
B/C ratios would be 1.3 for case 1 with a crude price US$ 30/bbl, and 2.9 for case 2 with
crude oil at US$60/bbl and accounting for thermal plant emissions.
Keeping the ICF at 1.25 and the FSL fixed, an analysis was made to see the difference in
NPV of the best dam type and the second and third best alternative, as shown in Figure
6.2 for the Combined Cycle case and in more detail in the following Table and Annex D
(Vol. IV).
The best dam type is the RCC Arch Gravity Dam (RCAG). The second ranked alternative,
the RCC Gravity Dam (RCGR), causes a reduction by circa three million US$ compared
with the RCGR. Given that world-wide no RCAG has yet been built, it seems all right to
use 3 million US$ to shift to the many times proven RCC Gravity Dam.
The third economically attractive dam would be a Concrete Arch Dam (COAR), at about
the same NPV as that of the RCGR. This is a good option, but the width/height ratio is
close to 4 which is seen as the limit for this type of dam.
All other dam types investigated would have an NPV value which is US$ 30 million less or
more.
1000
Rejected Chosen Rejected
Rejected
800 Credit for Avoided Thermal Plant Emission
600
200
30US$ Crude Oil Price - ex Arabia
0
RCAG RCGR COAR COAG RFCF RFCC COGR RCGW
Dam Type
Another test shows the optimality of the chosen FSL of 1120 m asl (Alternative B) asl
compared with 1130 m asl (C) and 1110 m asl (A). In two third of all parameter settings B
was clearly the best choice, followed by A. Alternative C is practically for all parameter
settings on the last spot. Figure 6.3 shows the comparison with Combined Cycle.
56 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Scheme Optimization
Chosen
1000
600
60US$ Crude Oil Price - ex Arabia
400
200
30US$ Crude Oil Price - ex Arabia
0
1110 1120 1130 1140
Full Supply Level (m asl)
Alternative D with an FSL of 1140 m asl was rejected from the beginning as it may take 30
months to fill the reservoir.
Then, by keeping the FSL at 1120 m asl, the installed capacity factor was examined. It
was found that under all parameter settings with a combined cycle or MS diesel the first
ranked variant had an ICF of 1.00, followed by 1.25 and 1.50. For the coal based case the
best variant was 1.75, followed by 1.50 and 1.25. This confirms that the choice of 1.25 is a
good compromise. Figure 6.4 shows the comparison with Combined Cycle.
For details see Annex D (Vol. IV).
chosen
1000
600
60US$ Crude Oil Price - ex Arabia
400
200
30US$ Crude Oil Price - ex Arabia
0
0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5
Installed Capacity Factor
6.6.4 Results for GD-3 – Effect of Upstream Regulation by GD-2 Hydropower Plant
GD-2 is an upstream candidate for hydropower generation. The reservoir would regulate
the inflows into the GD-3 Project.
The highest NPV values were obtained by Alternative T, which is the same as B, except
for the inflows. Thus the FSL of 1120 m asl would be unchanged, without and with
upstream regulation.
58 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Reservoir - Filling and Operation
7.1 Introduction
In the previous chapter, the main dimensions of the project components, that would
generate the greatest net benefits, were identified. One of those components was the
reservoir. This reservoir will regulate the natural river flows by storing a portion of the
inflow during periods of high river discharge for release through the power scheme during
periods of low river discharge. In this way, a largely constant pattern of energy will be
generated throughout the year and from year to year. Only in the driest of years will the
reservoir fail to release sufficient water to generate this constant pattern of energy.
Prior to entering operation, the reservoir must fill to a level that can sustain operation. The
duration of the filling period will depend on the time of year when impoundment begins
and on the subsequent river flows. This chapter assesses the filling period and thereafter
presents details of the reservoir’s mode of operation and the resulting energy yield. During
its lifetime, sediment will accumulate in the reservoir with the prospect of reducing its
capacity to regulate the seasonal and multi-annual variations in river flows. This loss of
capacity is also presented.
12
10
Filling Time (months)
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Probability of Exceedence (%)
60 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Reservoir - Filling and Operation
Reservoir Inflows
The inflows to the GD-3 reservoir comprise the natural river discharges at the dam site.
The series of monthly mean flows is presented in Table 7.3 and, in graphical form, in
Figure 7.2. The derivation of these natural discharges is contained in the Hydrology
Report.
In the simulation of reservoir operation, these net losses are converted each month to
volumes according to the reservoir surface area in that month. The average net loss from
the reservoir surface over the 32 year simulation period (1973 – 2004) is equivalent to
some 2.3m³/s. This is a minor loss of water compared to the mean river flow at the GD-3
dam site of some 92.5m³/s.
1,110
1,050 1.4 13
1,100
Elevation (masl)
1,060 2.8 34
1,090
1,070 9.5 95
1,080
Surface
1,080 23 260 MOL 1,070 Storage Area
1,040
1,110 76 1710
1,030
1,120 98 2570 FSL
1,020
1,130 119 3650 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
62 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Reservoir - Filling and Operation
The loss of storage (both total and active) is negligible even after 50 years of operation.
Some 2% of the active storage will be lost and 3.7% of the total storage. Under the “high
estimate” scenario, the level of sediment at the dam will not exceed 1050 m asl. Adopting
a safety buffer of 5m, the elevation of the power intake should not be lower than 1055 m
asl. With an FSL of 1120 m asl, the height of the power intake structure would exceed
70m. Reservoir operation simulations were carried out to assess the impact on energy
generation of raising the elevation of the power intake above the level of 1055 m asl in
order to reduce the height of the power intake. These simulations indicated that for MOL’s
up to 1080 m asl, the energy generation remained largely constant. The reduction in
active storage is offset by maintaining the reservoir level at a higher elevation thereby
creating a higher head over the power scheme. Thus an MOL of 1080 m asl was adopted
– the resulting height of the power intake is some 60m.
Efficiencies
The following efficiencies for each of the main energy generating components were
adopted:
Turbine efficiency - 0.935 to 0.850, dependent on head and discharge
Generator efficiency - 0.98, constant
Transformer efficiency - 0.99, constant
The regulating effect of the reservoir is shown in the comparison of inflow and outflow time
series in Figure 7.7 and in the comparison of inflow and outflow duration curves in Figure
7.8. The reservoir has the effect of dramatically increasing the river flows in the dry
season and reducing the magnitude and variability of flows in the wet season. The river
flow that is guaranteed for 95% of the time has increased from some 5m³/s to over 75m³/s
– a fifteen fold increase. This huge increase in the guaranteed flow will have huge benefits
for downstream hydropower, irrigation and water supply projects. Indeed there are two
hydropower projects and one irrigation project foreseen downstream of the GD-3 reservoir
which will benefit directly from the highly regulated outflows from the GD-3 reservoir. The
two downstream hydropower projects – GD-5 and GD-6 – are planned with only low dams
and small regulation storages of the order of days at mean flow. No dam is planned at the
Lower Genale Irrigation Project - only a low diversion weir. The elimination of high dams
and large reservoirs (with their associated social and environmental costs) from these
downstream projects represents huge costs saving for these projects.
Other benefits will also accrue from the regulated flows downstream of the reservoir,
including:
! Reduced probability of flooding,
! Improved prospects for boat transport along the river,
! Improved prospects for fishing.
The loss of dry season river crossings may be the only adverse impact of the increase in
low flows downstream.
64 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Reservoir - Filling and Operation
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1973 15.0 6.2 5.4 25.9 77.9 53.8 135.0 221.4 219.7 182.5 80.2 19.2 87.42
1974 12.6 5.6 16.7 25.9 47.0 59.7 129.5 132.3 194.0 85.8 57.3 13.5 65.27
1975 3.7 2.3 1.6 14.4 50.0 95.0 148.3 222.3 194.8 214.1 48.3 6.6 84.07
1976 3.6 1.0 1.1 12.8 146.9 88.2 150.0 147.0 165.1 128.6 141.6 24.8 84.49
1977 25.0 26.6 22.6 51.3 53.1 59.4 102.3 147.3 174.6 238.4 121.5 42.0 89.04
1978 19.6 12.2 11.7 41.3 61.8 68.0 122.0 164.0 187.5 175.5 92.9 38.7 83.36
1979 22.1 13.6 11.7 37.5 71.5 73.7 89.9 131.3 128.9 122.7 60.0 38.8 67.16
1980 19.0 9.7 8.2 49.1 118.5 106.7 174.7 191.6 171.0 162.8 76.2 18.5 92.52
1981 9.5 6.1 16.1 92.5 78.3 65.3 126.7 171.4 173.2 95.4 50.3 18.2 75.60
1982 8.8 6.4 9.1 32.2 118.4 97.5 129.2 158.2 199.6 173.7 99.1 46.5 90.39
1983 19.0 11.1 8.7 41.1 128.3 106.3 130.9 175.3 257.2 381.3 168.1 49.4 123.76
1984 15.7 4.8 3.1 6.5 32.1 77.6 93.8 156.2 230.7 133.2 54.4 18.5 68.98
1985 4.8 2.7 3.0 60.5 192.4 124.3 147.4 176.5 141.9 149.4 66.0 18.5 91.26
1986 5.3 3.9 2.9 34.1 107.4 142.8 115.1 111.8 223.5 147.5 47.3 23.0 80.67
1987 5.8 4.7 16.6 82.0 215.2 206.1 135.3 112.3 111.7 197.6 110.6 26.5 102.55
1988 11.2 5.5 4.8 23.0 58.4 64.3 167.1 237.6 159.8 307.8 65.4 15.2 93.99
1989 6.6 5.1 5.9 103.2 71.4 92.3 140.5 140.2 281.1 325.0 126.8 144.9 120.86
1990 65.1 46.7 91.2 159.5 107.7 116.5 103.8 195.6 148.8 124.0 55.1 21.0 103.19
1991 3.4 1.3 14.4 52.7 57.7 45.7 101.7 184.5 155.9 84.9 61.3 54.9 68.63
1992 47.2 41.2 32.4 22.5 14.5 46.3 115.4 142.1 190.2 393.7 145.8 78.8 106.25
1993 71.2 136.3 90.1 90.1 255.4 95.2 77.0 139.7 122.5 223.4 130.5 43.9 122.98
1994 27.0 19.4 24.5 47.1 154.1 150.6 213.4 263.3 180.0 184.0 124.8 60.2 121.48
1995 33.3 28.3 47.7 150.9 107.8 63.5 90.8 176.2 235.6 208.6 86.5 22.9 104.64
1996 17.9 12.7 8.3 53.5 147.4 291.2 159.4 208.0 247.0 126.9 38.7 16.4 110.64
1997 10.4 5.1 2.0 45.0 46.5 41.5 126.2 104.0 66.7 279.1 494.6 159.8 115.47
1998 187.2 117.1 50.2 54.5 143.3 70.4 139.7 203.0 193.2 369.1 112.8 27.5 139.52
1999 12.9 4.8 13.1 15.9 37.6 38.7 103.2 134.4 121.6 261.0 86.8 20.2 71.45
2000 4.8 2.1 1.2 5.7 127.3 29.8 65.5 149.9 151.7 277.9 200.3 42.6 88.61
2001 16.1 12.5 18.1 46.0 119.8 163.7 134.4 192.6 178.6 169.8 111.6 44.5 101.10
2002 23.2 9.9 21.7 42.4 59.7 48.1 76.1 114.5 98.9 112.0 47.0 51.8 59.17
2003 36.2 10.7 7.9 54.5 92.9 79.7 85.4 113.4 119.9 118.3 48.1 57.1 69.08
2004 35.7 27.3 11.1 44.7 67.3 55.6 72.5 148.8 184.6 167.0 91.3 40.8 79.01
Mean 24.97 18.84 18.22 50.57 98.99 91.17 121.94 164.58 175.30 197.53 103.16 40.79 92.58
Max 187.20 136.30 91.20 159.50 255.40 291.20 213.40 263.30 281.10 393.70 494.60 159.80 139.52
Min 3.40 1.00 1.10 5.70 14.50 29.80 65.50 104.00 66.70 84.90 38.70 6.60 59.17
500
450
400
350
Discharge (m3/s)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1973 83.4 84.5 85.9 87.9 89.8 75.7 91.2 89.4 85.9 83.7 82.3 82.4 85.22
1974 83.3 84.4 85.8 87.5 89.2 66.4 91.2 89.6 88.2 85.8 85.8 86.4 85.35
1975 76.7 0.0 0.2 15.5 50.7 91.2 91.1 88.9 85.6 83.8 82.0 82.5 62.79
1976 83.5 84.9 86.5 75.2 91.2 89.0 89.0 87.3 85.9 84.5 83.8 83.1 85.36
1977 84.0 85.0 86.1 87.7 88.7 89.1 91.2 90.7 88.6 86.5 83.7 83.2 87.07
1978 83.9 85.0 86.4 88.4 89.9 69.7 91.2 89.9 87.6 85.4 83.9 83.8 85.46
1979 84.6 85.8 87.4 73.1 72.2 73.0 89.1 91.2 89.6 88.3 87.4 88.1 84.17
1980 48.2 7.4 6.8 50.2 91.2 90.0 89.4 86.9 84.8 83.5 82.5 82.6 67.18
1981 83.5 84.7 86.2 88.0 87.8 88.0 88.7 87.6 85.7 84.3 84.1 84.6 86.11
1982 85.9 87.9 23.3 33.3 91.2 90.0 89.7 88.4 86.6 84.5 83.2 83.0 77.21
1983 83.5 84.6 86.0 87.9 89.2 88.0 87.5 86.5 84.8 82.4 79.2 78.5 84.85
1984 78.8 79.4 80.1 81.0 81.7 82.3 82.4 82.3 81.4 80.0 79.5 79.7 80.73
1985 80.4 81.2 82.1 83.2 83.4 82.0 81.5 80.8 79.9 79.4 78.8 78.9 80.97
1986 79.5 80.3 81.0 82.0 82.5 82.2 81.5 81.1 80.9 79.5 78.9 79.2 80.71
1987 79.8 80.6 81.4 82.2 82.1 80.6 79.5 79.0 78.7 85.7 107.0 77.6 82.81
1988 78.0 78.7 79.3 80.0 80.6 80.8 80.9 80.1 78.7 110.7 77.6 77.7 81.97
1989 78.3 78.9 79.6 80.3 80.1 80.2 80.1 79.5 99.8 110.0 110.0 110.0 88.95
1990 77.6 77.8 78.1 110.6 110.0 110.0 100.4 110.0 110.0 110.0 77.6 77.8 95.90
1991 78.3 79.0 79.7 80.4 80.6 80.8 81.2 81.0 80.0 79.3 79.3 79.5 79.92
1992 79.7 80.1 80.5 81.1 81.7 82.5 82.9 82.5 81.8 80.7 102.7 77.6 82.79
1993 77.6 105.0 84.5 94.5 110.0 92.3 77.6 110.1 110.0 110.0 110.0 77.6 96.49
1994 77.9 78.4 78.9 79.4 79.7 79.0 106.5 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 77.6 91.53
1995 77.8 78.2 78.6 78.9 78.3 78.1 78.2 105.2 110.0 110.0 82.9 77.6 86.22
1996 78.1 78.6 79.2 79.9 80.1 79.5 110.3 110.0 110.0 110.0 77.6 77.9 89.36
1997 78.5 79.1 79.8 80.6 80.9 81.3 81.7 81.2 81.0 81.2 112.4 110.0 85.66
1998 110.0 107.9 77.6 77.9 94.7 77.6 110.1 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.2 77.6 97.69
1999 78.0 78.6 79.3 79.9 80.5 80.9 81.4 81.2 80.7 80.3 78.6 78.6 79.85
2000 79.1 79.9 80.6 81.6 82.4 81.8 82.5 82.7 81.9 81.2 79.2 78.3 80.94
2001 78.6 79.2 79.8 80.5 80.8 80.4 79.6 79.1 94.9 110.0 108.0 77.6 85.71
2002 77.9 78.4 79.0 79.6 79.9 80.0 80.4 80.4 80.1 80.0 79.7 80.0 79.61
2003 80.3 80.8 81.6 82.5 82.8 82.7 82.7 82.7 82.4 82.0 81.5 81.9 82.00
2004 82.3 83.0 83.7 85.0 85.7 86.0 86.7 87.1 85.7 84.1 82.9 82.8 84.57
Mean 80.22 78.05 75.16 78.61 84.68 82.84 87.42 89.15 89.42 90.53 88.17 82.30 83.91
Max 110.02 107.86 87.36 110.58 110.02 110.02 110.27 110.07 110.02 110.71 112.37 110.02 97.69
Min 48.18 0.03 0.23 15.48 50.73 66.38 77.60 79.00 78.70 79.33 77.60 77.60 62.79
500
450
400
350
Discharge (m3/s)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
66 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Reservoir - Filling and Operation
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1973 83.4 84.5 85.9 87.9 89.8 75.7 91.2 89.4 85.9 83.7 82.3 82.4 85.22
1974 83.3 84.4 85.8 87.5 89.2 66.4 91.2 89.6 88.2 85.8 85.8 86.4 85.35
1975 76.7 0.0 0.2 15.5 50.7 91.2 91.1 88.9 85.6 83.8 82.0 82.5 62.79
1976 83.5 84.9 86.5 75.2 91.2 89.0 89.0 87.3 85.9 84.5 83.8 83.1 85.36
1977 84.0 85.0 86.1 87.7 88.7 89.1 91.2 90.7 88.6 86.5 83.7 83.2 87.07
1978 83.9 85.0 86.4 88.4 89.9 69.7 91.2 89.9 87.6 85.4 83.9 83.8 85.46
1979 84.6 85.8 87.4 73.1 72.2 73.0 89.1 91.2 89.6 88.3 87.4 88.1 84.17
1980 48.2 7.4 6.8 50.2 91.2 90.0 89.4 86.9 84.8 83.5 82.5 82.6 67.18
1981 83.5 84.7 86.2 88.0 87.8 88.0 88.7 87.6 85.7 84.3 84.1 84.6 86.11
1982 85.9 87.9 23.3 33.3 91.2 90.0 89.7 88.4 86.6 84.5 83.2 83.0 77.21
1983 83.5 84.6 86.0 87.9 89.2 88.0 87.5 86.5 84.8 82.4 79.2 78.5 84.85
1984 78.8 79.4 80.1 81.0 81.7 82.3 82.4 82.3 81.4 80.0 79.5 79.7 80.73
1985 80.4 81.2 82.1 83.2 83.4 82.0 81.5 80.8 79.9 79.4 78.8 78.9 80.97
1986 79.5 80.3 81.0 82.0 82.5 82.2 81.5 81.1 80.9 79.5 78.9 79.2 80.71
1987 79.8 80.6 81.4 82.2 82.1 80.6 79.5 79.0 78.7 85.7 107.0 77.6 82.81
1988 78.0 78.7 79.3 80.0 80.6 80.8 80.9 80.1 78.7 247.5 77.6 77.7 93.56
1989 78.3 78.9 79.6 80.3 80.1 80.2 80.1 79.5 99.8 326.4 123.2 138.9 110.87
1990 77.6 77.8 78.1 112.2 110.7 113.6 100.4 191.9 145.4 125.4 77.6 77.8 107.56
1991 78.3 79.0 79.7 80.4 80.6 80.8 81.2 81.0 80.0 79.3 79.3 79.5 79.92
1992 79.7 80.1 80.5 81.1 81.7 82.5 82.9 82.5 81.8 80.7 102.7 77.6 82.79
1993 77.6 105.0 84.5 94.5 258.4 92.3 77.6 132.0 119.1 224.8 126.9 77.6 122.83
1994 77.9 78.4 78.9 79.4 79.7 79.0 106.5 259.6 176.6 185.4 121.2 77.6 117.03
1995 77.8 78.2 78.6 78.9 78.3 78.1 78.2 105.2 232.2 210.0 82.9 77.6 104.75
1996 78.1 78.6 79.2 79.9 80.1 79.5 133.7 204.3 243.6 128.3 77.6 77.9 111.83
1997 78.5 79.1 79.8 80.6 80.9 81.3 81.7 81.2 81.0 81.2 284.3 153.8 103.51
1998 178.4 107.9 77.6 77.9 94.7 77.6 126.5 199.3 189.8 370.5 109.2 77.6 141.15
1999 78.0 78.6 79.3 79.9 80.5 80.9 81.4 81.2 80.7 80.3 78.6 78.6 79.85
2000 79.1 79.9 80.6 81.6 82.4 81.8 82.5 82.7 81.9 81.2 79.2 78.3 80.94
2001 78.6 79.2 79.8 80.5 80.8 80.4 79.6 79.1 94.9 171.2 108.0 77.6 90.90
2002 77.9 78.4 79.0 79.6 79.9 80.0 80.4 80.4 80.1 80.0 79.7 80.0 79.61
2003 80.3 80.8 81.6 82.5 82.8 82.7 82.7 82.7 82.4 82.0 81.5 81.9 82.00
2004 82.3 83.0 83.7 85.0 85.7 86.0 86.7 87.1 85.7 84.1 82.9 82.8 84.57
Mean 82.35 78.05 75.16 78.66 89.34 82.95 88.67 102.81 103.38 121.74 94.83 84.57 90.30
Max 178.38 107.86 87.36 112.22 258.36 113.63 133.73 259.60 243.60 370.53 284.26 153.83 141.15
Min 48.18 0.03 0.23 15.48 50.73 66.38 77.60 79.00 78.70 79.33 77.60 77.60 62.79
500
450
400
350
Discharge (m3/s)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1973 1101.4 1098.1 1094.1 1088.6 1083.6 1082.5 1080.0 1084.6 1094.0 1100.5 1104.6 1104.4 1093.00
1974 1101.7 1098.3 1094.3 1089.7 1085.1 1080.8 1080.0 1084.0 1087.7 1094.4 1094.5 1092.7 1090.23
1975 1087.4 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1080.4 1086.0 1095.1 1100.2 1105.5 1104.2 1088.28
1976 1100.9 1096.9 1092.4 1086.0 1080.0 1085.8 1085.6 1090.3 1094.0 1098.0 1100.1 1102.4 1092.70
1977 1099.7 1096.6 1093.5 1089.1 1086.5 1083.3 1080.0 1081.2 1086.6 1092.5 1100.4 1101.9 1090.90
1978 1100.0 1096.6 1092.7 1087.2 1083.3 1080.3 1080.0 1083.3 1089.5 1095.4 1099.9 1100.2 1090.67
1979 1098.0 1094.4 1090.1 1083.6 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1084.2 1087.5 1090.1 1088.0 1086.27
1980 1083.5 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1083.1 1084.6 1091.2 1097.1 1100.9 1104.2 1103.9 1089.08
1981 1101.1 1097.4 1093.3 1088.5 1088.9 1088.3 1086.4 1089.3 1094.6 1098.8 1099.4 1097.7 1093.63
1982 1094.0 1088.7 1081.8 1080.0 1080.0 1083.1 1083.7 1087.2 1092.1 1098.0 1102.1 1102.6 1089.46
1983 1100.9 1097.7 1093.9 1088.7 1085.1 1088.4 1089.6 1092.4 1097.3 1104.5 1114.5 1116.8 1097.49
1984 1115.9 1113.8 1111.5 1108.8 1106.4 1104.7 1104.4 1104.8 1107.4 1112.1 1113.7 1112.9 1109.68
1985 1110.8 1108.1 1105.3 1102.1 1101.2 1105.6 1107.1 1109.2 1112.2 1114.0 1116.0 1115.6 1108.94
1986 1113.7 1111.1 1108.7 1105.7 1104.1 1105.1 1107.2 1108.3 1109.2 1113.5 1115.5 1114.6 1109.73
1987 1112.7 1110.2 1107.6 1105.1 1105.2 1110.0 1113.7 1115.2 1116.1 1116.9 1120.0 1120.0 1112.75
1988 1118.5 1116.4 1114.2 1111.8 1110.2 1109.5 1108.9 1111.6 1116.2 1118.3 1120.0 1119.6 1114.61
1989 1117.7 1115.5 1113.3 1110.9 1111.7 1111.5 1111.8 1113.5 1115.2 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1115.10
1990 1120.0 1119.4 1118.5 1118.7 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1119.3 1119.66
1991 1117.6 1115.3 1113.0 1110.8 1110.0 1109.3 1108.1 1108.7 1112.0 1114.2 1114.4 1113.7 1112.25
1992 1112.9 1111.6 1110.3 1108.5 1106.7 1104.2 1102.8 1104.0 1106.1 1109.7 1119.0 1120.0 1109.63
1993 1119.9 1119.5 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1119.9 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1119.94
1994 1118.9 1117.3 1115.6 1113.8 1113.0 1115.3 1117.2 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1117.61
1995 1119.4 1117.9 1116.5 1115.4 1117.5 1118.4 1117.9 1118.2 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1118.44
1996 1118.4 1116.5 1114.5 1112.2 1111.6 1113.7 1119.4 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1118.9 1117.11
1997 1117.1 1114.9 1112.7 1110.1 1109.0 1107.9 1106.5 1108.0 1108.7 1108.1 1114.4 1120.0 1111.42
1998 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1119.1 1118.6 1120.0 1119.7 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1119.79
1999 1118.5 1116.5 1114.3 1112.2 1110.3 1109.0 1107.5 1108.2 1109.9 1111.1 1116.5 1116.6 1112.51
2000 1114.8 1112.3 1109.9 1107.0 1104.4 1106.2 1104.2 1103.4 1105.9 1108.2 1114.5 1117.7 1109.04
2001 1116.6 1114.6 1112.5 1110.4 1109.5 1110.8 1113.2 1114.8 1117.9 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1115.03
2002 1119.0 1117.2 1115.2 1113.4 1112.4 1111.9 1110.8 1110.6 1111.6 1112.1 1113.1 1112.0 1113.25
2003 1111.0 1109.3 1106.9 1104.0 1103.1 1103.5 1103.4 1103.4 1104.5 1105.8 1107.1 1105.9 1105.63
2004 1104.8 1102.7 1100.4 1096.7 1094.8 1093.8 1091.9 1090.9 1094.6 1099.4 1103.0 1103.2 1097.99
Mean 1109.6 1107.0 1104.6 1101.8 1100.4 1100.8 1100.8 1102.6 1105.6 1108.6 1111.3 1111.4 1105.4
Max 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1120.0 1119.9
Min 1083.5 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1080.0 1084.2 1087.5 1090.1 1088.0 1086.3
1130
1120
Water Level ( masl)
1110
1100
1090
1080
1070
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
68 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Reservoir - Filling and Operation
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1973 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 153.2 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 180.09
1974 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 133.3 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 178.46
1975 158.5 0.1 0.5 31.0 101.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 131.67
1976 182.5 182.5 182.5 154.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 180.21
1977 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 180.8 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.36
1978 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 139.6 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 178.97
1979 182.5 182.5 182.5 148.7 144.5 146.0 178.2 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 173.13
1980 97.9 14.9 13.7 100.4 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 141.02
1981 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.50
1982 182.5 182.5 47.1 66.6 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 161.47
1983 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.50
1984 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.50
1985 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.50
1986 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.50
1987 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 199.1 251.7 182.5 189.61
1988 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 258.8 182.5 182.5 188.96
1989 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 230.6 258.8 258.8 258.8 205.68
1990 182.5 182.5 182.5 258.8 258.8 258.8 236.0 258.8 258.8 258.8 182.5 182.5 225.28
1991 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.50
1992 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 240.7 182.5 187.27
1993 182.5 246.5 198.7 222.2 258.8 217.1 182.5 258.8 258.8 258.8 258.8 182.5 226.87
1994 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 247.9 258.8 258.8 258.8 258.8 182.5 213.54
1995 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 245.8 258.8 258.8 195.1 182.5 201.65
1996 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 258.8 258.8 258.8 258.8 182.5 182.5 208.13
1997 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 258.8 258.8 195.24
1998 258.8 253.7 182.5 182.5 221.7 182.5 258.8 258.8 258.8 258.8 256.9 182.5 229.58
1999 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.50
2000 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.50
2001 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 221.3 258.8 254.1 182.5 198.05
2002 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.50
2003 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.50
2004 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.50
Mean 181.5 175.8 167.8 173.3 184.8 181.0 190.8 196.4 199.5 204.5 201.0 187.3 187.0
Max 258.8 253.7 198.7 258.8 258.8 258.8 258.8 258.8 258.8 258.8 258.8 258.8 229.6
Min 97.9 0.1 0.5 31.0 101.5 133.3 178.2 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 182.5 131.7
300
250
Continuous Power (MW)
200
150
100
50
0
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
500
Inflows
450
Outflows
400
350
Discharge (m3/s)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
3
Discharge (m /s)
500
400
300
Inflows
200
Outflows
100
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Duration (%)
70 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Reservoir - Filling and Operation
The power and energy generated are some 5% to 9% higher than the reference case.
This is comforting to know. Being conservative the Consultant will, however, use the
results of the reference case as the basis for the evaluation of the GD-3 project.
Table 7.8: Effects of Higher Flows and Increased Variability on Reservoir Operation
Inflow Peak Power Continuous Power Energy
Case Average Max Average Min Average Guaranteed Average
(m3/s) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (GWh/a)
Climatic Change 111.5 282 262 213 227 226 1,988
Historic 92.6 268 249 212 187 183 1,640
% higher 20.3% 5.2% 5.2% 0.5% 21% 23% 21%
Using the same installed capacity as used for the simulation for the historic inflows, the
capacity figures do not change much, although the guaranteed power goes up by about
5%, but the energy output would rise by about 21%.
8 Dam
72 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
velocities of 2500m/sec is 5m on the dam axis and about 10m upstream and downstream.
These maximum depths occur over short sections only and probably correspond to near
vertical joints where weathering penetrates down the joint. In general there are very high
velocities close to surface.
The massive, coarse grained, unweathered, very widely and tightly jointed and strong
granites on which the dam will be founded, have very high rock mass properties with very
high bearing capacities and very low deformation moduli.
Using the Geomechanics Rock Mass Classification (Bieniawski 1989) the granite rock
mass has a total rock mass rating (RMR89) of 88, indicating a very good rock mass. This
RMR value indicates an angle of friction of 45° and cohesion of 400kPa on the rock joints.
This is equivalent to a Geological Strength Index (GSI) of 83 (Hoek and Brown 1997).
The RocLab 1 programme, available from RocScience, predicts rock mass parameters
with a global strength of about 38MPa and a modulus of deformation of about 37GPa
based on a rock mass with a uniaxial strength of 75MPa and a GSI of 83. Even higher
rock mass parameters for rock strength and GSI are predicted for massive granite.
From the above it is clear that the geological conditions at the proposed dam site are very
favourable for a high concrete gravity dam.
Core drilling shows that the maximum depth to sound rock for foundations, taking jointing
into account is 5.2m. In places there may be vertical joints with narrow zones of deeper
weathering and poorer rock that will require removal and backfilling with dental concrete,
but these should not affect the general founding depth. There may also be open stress
relief joints parallel to surface. In theory the dam should not be founded above open joints
but these joints may not daylight and may not be visible so that consolidation grouting of
the open joints will be required.
The dam foundation excavations will require a relatively uniform profile so that in places
the excavations will be deeper than the maximum required. For feasibility design it can be
assumed that the foundations will have an average founding depth of 5m. The present
river channel has a minimum level of 1015m. It is assumed to be in sound rock suitable for
founding. Pre-split drilling and blasting should be used for excavations in the unweathered
granite because of the very wide joint spacing.
Grout takes for a grout curtain are likely to be minimal according to the current
investigations. At the design investigations, the few major vertical joints and other
lineaments observed on the aerial photos need to be drilled and tested. Consolidation
grouting below the dam foundations will be more a question of check testing and grout
takes are only expected where stress relief joints parallel to the ground surface and
therefore not readily visible occur.
The stilling basin located at the toe of the dam will be founded at the same elevation as
the section of dam foundation below the spillway on sound unweathered rock.
There are a number of large boulders and blocks of rock embedded in the dam abutments
which will require excavation. The slopes at and around the dam site are steep but stable
– there or no unfavourable major joint planes. These slopes should remain largely stable
during and after impoundment, although minor surface slides may occur along shallow
surface-parallel exfoliation planes.
Construction Materials
The most obvious source of coarse concrete aggregate (stone) in the neighbourhood of
the dam is the proposed quarry on the right bank about 2km upstream of the dam axis.
The quarry has steep slopes or cliffs at the toe of the quarry and massive granite
outcrops. Boreholes drilled in the quarry area encountered usuable granitic rock at depths
generally ranging from 4m to 10m.
The results of strength testing proved that aggregate derived from this quarry would be
sufficient for manufacturing concrete of strengths up to at least 25MPa. With regard to
durability and resistance to abrasion, results of tests proved that aggregate from this
source would be satisfactory. The results of the alkali silica reaction (ASR) tests all show
that the granitic aggregates are innocuous and will not react adversely with cement.
The proposed quarry has a potential volume of about 6 million cubic metres, which is well
in excess of the total required aggregate volume which will be of the order of 1 million
cubic metres.
A second source of aggregates will be the rock spoil from the long headrace tunnel. This
material will be mucked out to the surge tank area. However, this source suffers from two
major disadvantages – firstly, the material will only become available as tunnel excavation
proceeds over a period of two years and secondly it will have to be transported some 23
road-km from the spoil deposit to the dam site.
One other option for concrete aggregate that should be considered is the use of
limestone. Extensive beds of limestones are located within 5km of the dam soite, close to
the access road running between the power house and the dam.
Good quality sands for filters and concrete aggregates occur in localised banks along the
main river and in its tributaries upstream of the dam site. Cement (both OPC and
Pozzolan) is available from the Muger Cement Factory – some 650 road-km north-north-
west of the project site.
Seismicity
Previous studies by international consultants (NORPLAN A.S. in association with
Norconsult International A.S., 1999) have shown that the GD-3 dam site is located in an
area of low seismic hazard (Hazard Class I). According to their report, the peak ground
accelerations for the design of any water retaining structure should be as follows:
! Maximum design earthquake (MDE): 0.12 g
! Operating basis earthquake (OBE): 0.06 g
These accelerations are relatively low by world standards.
Rainfall
The average rainfall at the dam site is some 765mm per year. Its distribution throughout
the year is reflected in the rainfall record of the nearby town of Negele, presented in
Figure 8.1 below.
Two peaks of rainfall are evident – the first peak in April and May and the second in
October.
74 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
140
Streamflow (m 3/s)
140 11.2%
120
120 9.2%
9.1%
100 8.1%
100
80
80
60 60 4.5%
3.7%
40 40 2.3%
1.7% 2.3%
20 1.6%
20
0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Flood Flows
The highest floods occur during the high flow season from May to November. The
estimated magnitude of the rarer floods, with return intervals from once in 10 years up to
the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), are presented below:
Wind
Wind influences dam design insofar as it creates waves on the reservoir surface which
run-up against the dam crest, potentially over-topping the dam. In addition, the heat
release through the surface of the RCC dam depends on the wind velocity. The mean
monthly wind speed varies from 2.0 to 3.4 m/s with an annual mean value of 2.62 m/s.
Temperature
Similar to other parts of the country, the average temperature at the GD-3 dam site varies
little throughout the year. Mean monthly profiles of temperature show only a slight
variation from month to month with values ranging from 18.0° to 21.7°C. The mean annual
temperature is 19.7°C.
76 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
Further investigations, during the present studies, focused on the GD-3-M site. Detailed
ground surveying and core drilling of the site were undertaken under the direction of the
Consultant. The results of the ground survey and the drilling confirmed the suitability of
the selected dam axis.
In the comparative analysis, the following physical characteristics of the dam site were
considered:
! Valley cross-section along the dam axis,
! Depth of weathering for excavation along the dam axis,
! Cross slopes along the long spillway axis.
It is worth noting that the EVALS software bases its evaluation on “standard” designs and
design functions – the software provides the engineering planner with a very good basis
for decision making. However, the software has not yet been developed to consider all the
complex aspects of design specific to any single site. Therefore, the output from EVALS
must be carefully interpreted.
The resulting direct construction costs (that is, costs without the contractor’s overheads,
profit and financing charges) of the various alternatives were estimated by EVALS as
follows:
Direct Costs (M US$)
Dam Type
Dam Body Spillway River Diversion Total
RCC Arch Gravity 37.34 1.17 1.05 39.56
RCC Gravity 39.08 1.17 1.05 41.30
Concrete Arch 39.22 1.23 1.05 41.50
Rockfill with Central
38.56 3.81 12.77 55.14
Impermeable Core
Concrete Faced
36.50 3.75 11.13 51.38
Rockfill
Concrete Arch
57.22 1.17 1.05 59.44
Gravity
Concrete Gravity 68.64 1.17 1.05 70.86
60
20
0
RCAG RCGR COAR RFCC CFRF COAG COGR
Note: Blue is dam cost, Red is dam+spillway, and Pink is dam+spillway+diversion costs
The cost advantages of RCC dams are clear from the above comparison. The strong
foundations, the shallow depth of weathering and the availability of suitable aggregates all
suit an RCC dam. The speed with which an RCC can be raised together with the
incorporation of both the river diversion waterway and the spillway into the main dam body
reduce significantly the construction cost and construction time compared to embankment
type dams.
The above comparison also shows that an RCC arch gravity dam would cost less to
construct than an RCC gravity dam. The arch gravity dam exploits the abutments to resist
external loads and thus has less fill volume. However, almost all RCC dams, which have
been built around the world to date, are gravity dams. As a result, there is not much
experience in building arch gravity dams using RCC. Further disadvantages of an RCC
arch dam are:
! The spillway for an RCC arch dam must be gated in order to avoid scouring of the
dam toe during the smaller floods – this requires uninterrupted power at the dam site
and floods will not be attenuated as with a free overflow spillway. The alternative is to
arrange a free overflow spillway on the abutment separate from the main body –
however, this will add significant costs.
! For a high RCC arch dam, the transverse contraction joints must be grouted before
reservoir impounding. This requires expensive temperature control and post cooling of
the dam body. Forming the transverse contraction joints for an RCC arch dam is more
complicated than for a gravity dam. The costs of post cooling, grouting and joint
forming generally exceed the savings from a lower volume RCC arch dam.
! The unit price of RCC in an arch dam is usually higher than that in a gravity dam due
to the higher strength requirement and limited construction area on an arch dam. The
unit price of RCC for an arch dam can reach 1.5-times that for a gravity dam.
From the above, an RCC gravity dam has been adopted as the basis for the present
feasibility design and cost estimate.
78 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
With regard to wind-generated waves, the wave run-up on a dam face is a function of the
following:
! the selected wind velocity (= 22.8m/s, the once in 100 year wind speed),
! the fetch over which this wind acts (= 3.000m, the longest effective wind fetch over the
reservoir directed at the dam, from a north-easterly direction),
! the resulting significant wave height, and
! the slope and roughness of the upstream dam face (vertical, smooth concrete).
The significant wave height has been calculated from the wind velocity and fetch using the
empirical formula, known as the Donelan/JONSWAP formula, as follows:
Significant wave height, HS = wind velocity × fetch 0.5 / 1760 (metres, seconds)
= 0.71 m
Run-up on the face of a dam or wall is a function of the slope and roughness of the face.
For the RCC dam, the slope is vertical and the face is smooth. Various empirical formulae
have been developed to predict wave run-up as a factor of the wave height, as follows:
Run-up Factor
Formula
(Hrun-up / Hwave)
Saville (1958, published in ASCE Shore Protection Manual, Figure 7-12)
1.35
corrected for scale
Thomas (1976, The Engineering of Large Dams, John Wiley and Sons) 1.35
Smith (19xx, Hydraulic Structures) 1.50
For the present design, a run-up factor of 1.5 has been adopted. The resulting run-up on
the vertical face of the RCC dam will be:
Run-up, HR = 1.5 × 0.71m
= 1.1m
In order to provide a dry freeboard of 0.5m during passage of the flood with a return
period of once in 10,000 years, the dam crest must be set at 1124.7m asl.
During passage of the PMF, the mean water level would reach an elevation of 1124.8m
asl. To avoid a period of continuous flow over the dam crest during the passage of a PMF,
the crest elevation has been set at 1125.0m asl. In order to reduce intermittent
overtopping by waves, a 1.0m wave wall will be constructed along the crest thereby
raising the effective crest level to 1126.0m asl. This arrangement will prevent overtopping
by the significant wave even during passage of the PMF.
80 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
Contact grouting will be performed at the contact between the back-filled concrete and the
foundation rock to ensure a firm contact.
Curtain Grouting
A grout curtain beneath a dam is generally required when the foundation rock mass is
jointed, porous or otherwise permeable. Grout is injected at high pressure into the
foundation rock mass to fill the joints and voids. The injection is carried out from one or
more parallel lines of holes drilled across the valley thereby creating an almost
impermeable curtain beneath the dam. In the case of GD-3, five holes were drilled across
the valley at the site of the proposed dam. In these holes, water pressure tests were
carried out to assess the permeability of the foundation rock mass. These tests clearly
indicated that the foundation rock mass is largely impermeable below a depth of 5m.
Despite the clear indications of impermeability, it is extremely unlikely that the entire valley
section beneath the dam will be impermeable. There will most likely be fissures and/or
zones of fractured rock that will require grouting. These fissures and zones will be
identified during excavation of the dam footprint and treated from the grouting gallery as
the dam body is being raised. Over the extent of the identified permeable zones, one row
of curtain grouting holes is foreseen. The grouting holes, at 1.5m centres, will be drilled
into the rock in an upstream direction at an inclination of 10° from the vertical down to a
maximum depth of 50 m below the dam base. The depth of the holes will be reduced on
the abutments as the water head decreases.
Foundation Drainage
The distribution and magnitude of uplift forces under a dam are controlled primarily by
drainage. In order to reduce the uplift pressure over the base of the RCC dam, a row of
drain holes will be drilled from the grouting gallery across the valley section immediately
downstream of any grout curtains. The drainage holes will be 100 mm in diameter and
drilled vertically at 3m centres to a depth of 25 m. The drain holes will be drilled only after
any curtain grouting is completed to prevent blocking of the drain holes.
Main Dimensions of the RCC Dam and Layout of Ancillary Structural Components
The RCC dam will be a gravity structure comprising a geo-membrane seal over the
upstream face and a main body of low cementitious RCC. An ungated free overflow
spillway and a stepped chute will be constructed over the top of the central section of the
dam. The spillway will have a crest length of 62 m including a 2.0 m wide central pier to
support a reinforced concrete bridge. This bridge will carry vehicular traffic across the
dam. The ogee weir crest, the pier, the downstream facing of the spillway and the chute
side walls will be constructed of conventional reinforced concrete. The water levels behind
the dam will be:
FSL 1120.00 m asl
Maximum still water level during passage of the PMF 1124.80 m asl
The RCC dam will be founded on fresh to slightly weathered granite. Beneath the RCC
section of the dam, the granite rock mass is sound, massive and of low permeability. As
mentioned above, a grout curtain and drainage system will be arranged in the vicinity of the
dam heel to reduce uplift pressure on the dam base. A grouting/drainage gallery (2.5m wide
by 3.5m high) will run through the dam heel following the course of the founding line as it
crosses the valley section. A seepage water collection sump will be located at the lowest
section of this gallery. The seepage water will be pumped downstream via a steel pipe.
A flexible polyvinyl chloride (PVC) membrane system, known as the Winchester system,
will be incorporated into the upstream face of the dam to create the watertight seal. With
this system, the upstream face of the dam is covered by thin prefabricated concrete
panels (100 to 150 mm thick) which have geo-membranes cast onto one surface. The
panels are erected with the geo-membrane surface against the to-be-placed RCC/GEV-
RCC core (essentially acting as formwork for the RCC). Geomembrane cap strips are
welded from one panel to the next before concrete placement. The RCC/GEV-RCC is
then placed against the geomembrane with the precast concrete facing being left
exposed. The concrete panels provide physical protection to the geomembrane as well as
shielding from ultraviolet degradation. This technique has been used in many RCC dams
around the worlds.
Various grades of RCC and conventional concrete will be poured as follows:
! Primary RCC of grades M14A51 and M10A51 for the lower and upper interior parts of
the dam body, respectively;
! Grout-Enriched Vibrated RCC (GEV-RCC) of grade M15A38 for the upstream facing
(0.5 m thick), the downstream facing of the non-overflow dam (1.0 m thick), around the
galleries (0.5 m thick) and on the rock surfaces of the exposed abutments (0.5 m
thick);
! Conventional concrete (CC) of grade M40A38 for the spillway crest, the downstream
facing of the spillway (1.0 m thick), the chute steps, the stilling basin facing (1.0 m
thick) and end sill, and concrete panel of the PVC geomembrane system;
! Conventional concrete (CC) of grade M30A38 for the bridge over the spillway and for
the side walls of the spillway and stilling basin;
! CC of grade M15A38 for the foundation base (2.0 m thick) of the stilling basin and for
the non-overflow dam crest.
! Bedding mix M15A19 and sand mortar M15 for the foundation surface (<10 cm) and
treatment of cold lift joints (1.0 to 2.0 cm).
The primary RCC mix will have a low cement content with approximately 65 and 85 kg/m³
of cement (Type II) for the RCC grades of M10A51 and M14A51, respectively, 900 kg/m³
of fine aggregate, 1400 kg/m³ of coarse aggregate and between 70~120 kg/m³ of water,
proper content of aggregate fines and the admixtures. The VeBe time of the RCC will be
of the order of between 5 and 20 seconds. The grout slurry for the GEV-RCC will
comprise cement, water and plasticizer. The concrete strengths refer to an age after 180
days for RCC, GEV-RCC and bedding mix, and after 28 days for conventional concrete.
The RCC dam shall have transverse contraction joints at approximately every 30 m. The
contraction joints will be formed by a backhoe excavator mounted with a vibrating hammer
and blade. A longitudinal joint in the dam blocks is not necessary. To prevent ingress of
spill and rain water from the dam crest and downstream dam face, PVC water stops are
foreseen along the downstream joints between adjacent vertical block joints (both
overflow and non-overflow blocks). These water stops will be embedded in GEV-RCC at a
depth of 30 cm from the downstream dam face. The connection between the water stops
and the upstream geo-membrane is watertight.
82 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
Besides the curtain grouting/drainage gallery, three D-shaped inspection galleries (each
1.5m wide by 2.0m high) are arranged at elevations. 1045.0m, 1070.0m and 1100.0m asl.
Vertical drainage pipes, 20 cm in diameter, will be installed at 3.0 m centres between the
galleries to drain any seepage/leakage water. At the abutments, the inspection galleries
will intersect the grouting gallery. Access to the internal galleries will be from the
downstream slope, close to the dam crest.
Two further hydropower schemes are planned downstream of the GD-3 scheme. Both are
planned to have relatively small storage reservoirs (of the order of 1 to 2 weeks). In order to
guarantee that both these downstream plants will continue to receive water sufficient to
operate even if the GD-3 power plant is out of operation for a prolonged period, an outlet
arrangement will be incorporated into the GD-3 dam. This outlet arrangement will comprise
two steel pipes, each 1.80m in diameter, laid transversely through the dam at an elevation
corresponding to the mid level inspection gallery. Each pipe ends in a Howell-Bunger valve.
Together, the valves will have a capacity to discharge 83.9m³/s at a reservoir level of 1090m
asl. This discharge corresponds to the average discharge of the GD-3 power plant, while
the reservoir level represents a very low level reached only rarely during a severe drought.
At reservoir levels below 1090m als, the discharge capacity drops off to some 58 m³/s at the
MOL of 1080m asl. This reduction in capacity as the reservoir drops towards the MOL would
be in line with rationing during the severest of droughts.
The unit weight and Poisson’s ratio of the rock is assumed to be 26 kN/m³ and 0.20 to
0.30, respectively. The deformation modulus of the granite is assumed to be 40 GPa.
Ultimate bearing capacities of the rock are assumed as 20.3, 30.2 and 62.6 MPa for the
usual, unusual and extreme load cases, respectively.
For the purpose of the stability analysis, the following properties for the RCC of M14A51
grade have been assumed:
Instantaneous elastic modulus 25.0 GPa
Medium-term creep (assumed) 40%
thus: Medium-term sustained elastic modulus 15.0 GPa
Poisson's ratio 0.20
Specific weight 24.5 kN/m³
Coefficient of thermal expansion 0.85 x 10-5
Static compressive strength of RCC 14.0 MPa
Static direct tensile strength of parent RCC 1.40 MPa
Static direct tensile strength at lift joints 0.50 MPa
Dynamic compressive strength 18.2 MPa
Dynamic direct tensile strength of parent RCC 2.10 MPa
Dynamic direct tensile strength at lift joints 0.75 MPa
Angle of internal friction at lift joints 45°
Unit cohesion at lift joints 0.70 MPa
The bearing capacity of the RCC is calculated as 4.2, 7.0 and 12.6 MPa for the usual,
unusual and extreme load cases, respectively.
From the above parameters it can be proved that the shear parameters at the dam-to-
foundation interface and rock bearing capacity are substantially larger than those at the
RCC lift joints. This means that dam stability will be controlled by the RCC lift joints. For
this reason, the stability against sliding along the lowest RCC lift joint (say approximately
at the level of dam-foundation interface el. 1015.0 m) and the stresses in the base
concrete are calculated. The analysis of the internal stability and stresses of the dam body
at higher levels is not necessary. In addition, according to the investigations to date, the
rock mass beneath the dam is intact and there is no evidence of faulting. Hence, the
stability analysis for the foundation rock is not necessary. Large shear tests should be
carried out to confirm these assumptions in next design phase.
Extreme 1.3 Within base ≤ 1.33 allowable 0.9 fc’ 1.5 fc’2/3
Note: fc’ is 180-day unconfined compressive strength of RCC. RCC allowable strengths are for static
loading conditions. For seismic loading conditions the allowable concrete strengths can be increased
by 50% for tensile strength and 30% for compressive strength. Any tensile stresses at the dam heel
and/or toe for the Usual Load Case are not acceptable.
84 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
Dead Weight
Silt Pressure
Uplift, drains
Designation
Q1000
Q1000
defect
MCE
PMF
PMF
OBE
FSL
FSL
1 US x x x x
2 UN x x
us
3 EX x x x
4 UN x x x x
5 EX x x x x
6 UN x x x x x
7 UN x x x x x ds
8 EX x x x x x
ds
The factors of safety (FS) and stresses at the assumed sliding plane are based on the
“Gravity Method of Stress Analysis”[1,3]. To facilitate understanding of the factors of
safety, the relevant forces, moments and stresses are illustrated in the sketch below.
ΣH
ΣV
ΣM
σzu ΣV O σzd
•
T
The factor of safety against sliding is defined as the ratio of the maximum resisting shear
and the applied shear along the assumed slip path at service conditions as follows:
tgφ ⋅ ∑V + c ⋅ A
FS =
∑H
Stresses at the dam heel and toe are calculated according to the following formula:
σ zu ⎫ ∑ V 6 ∑ M
⎬= ±
σ zd ⎭ BT BT 2
The overturning stability is measured by the resultant location (eccentricity) along the
block base which is calculated according to the formula:
∑M
e=
∑V
Where:
φ— angle of internal friction;
c— cohesion intercept (kN/m²);
B— dam block width (m), here B=1.0 m;
T— base length of calculation section (m);
3. Uplift pressure: the uplift pressure distribution is assumed to have an intensity at the
line of the drainage curtain that exceeds the tail water pressure by 35% of the
differential head between reservoir and tail water levels. The pressure gradient is then
extended to the reservoir and tail water levels in straight lines. In the case of drain
failure, a straight line from reservoir to tail water level is assumed. The uplift pressure
is assumed to act over 100% of the block base area.
4. Silt pressure: the horizontal silt pressure is assumed to be equivalent to that of a fluid
weighing 15.3 kN/m³. The vertical silt pressure is determined as if silt were a soil
having a wet density of 2200 kg/m³, the magnitude of pressure varying directly with
depth. These values include the effects of water within the silt.
5. Seismic loads: because the PGA of 0.12g < 0.20g for MCE, the pseudo-static method
of analysis can be used for the dam stability and stress analysis[1]. The horizontal
component of full value and the vertical component of 2/3 the horizontal value is
assumed, to be consistent with standard practice in such cases. When using the
pseudo-static method, the seismic coefficient is usually multiplied by a factor of 1/2 to
2/3 to consider the oscillating nature of the inertia forces. For the present stability
analysis, the factor of 2/3 has been adopted. The force and moment of inertia of the
reservoir water for horizontal earthquake acceleration has been computed by means
of the Westergaard formula:
2
Pew = Ceαγ w BH 2
3
4
M ew = Ceαγ w BH 3
15
Where:
Pew — horizontal hydrodynamic pressure (kN);
H — water depth (m);
α— earthquake acceleration (m/s²);
γw — unit weight of water (kN/m³);
te — period of vibration, approximately te=1.1 s
0.816
Ce =
2
⎛ H ⎞
1 − 7.75⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
⎝ 1000 t e ⎠
86 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
Comment
against Sliding at Base (m) Heel** (MPa) Toe** (MPa)
Load
1 US 3.00 2.37 ≥ 2.0 10.8 < 13.6 0.27 > 0.00 1.98 < 4.2 OK
2 UN ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ 10.9 < 27.1 2.33 < 7.0 0.25 > -0.29 OK
3 EX 73.8 59.3 ≥ 1.3 12.2 < 40.7 2.54 < 16.4 0.14 > -0.75 OK
4 UN 2.82 2.22 ≥ 1.7 12.9 < 27.1 0.05 > -0.29 2.11 < 7.0 OK
5 EX 2.81 2.21 ≥ 1.3 13.0 < 40.7 0.04 > -0.50 2.08 < 12.6 OK
6 UN 2.45 1.90 ≥ 1.7 17.9 < 27.1 -0.27 > -0.29 1.90 < 7.0 OK
7 UN 2.68 2.11 ≥ 1.7 15.2 < 27.1 -0.13 > -0.44 2.16 < 9.1 OK
8 EX 2.33 1.84 ≥ 1.3 20.5 < 40.7 -0.48 > -0.75 2.34 < 16.4 OK
Note: *: The calculated value I indicates the value at dam-foundation interface; while the calculated value L
indicates the value at RCC lift joint.
**: Signs: “+” indicates compression; “–“ indicates tension.
Table 8.4: Results of Stability and Stress Analysis for RCC Non-Overflow Section
Factor of Safety (FS) Resultant Location Stress at Dam Stress at Dam
Designation
Conditions
Comment
1 US 3.02 2.39 ≥ 2.0 10.2 < 13.6 0.28 > 0.00 1.95 < 4.2 OK
2 UN ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ 11.1 < 27.2 2.36 < 7.0 0.24 > -0.29 OK
3 EX 73.6 59.2 ≥ 1.3 12.4 < 40.8 2.58 < 16.4 0.12 > -0.75 OK
4 UN 2.85 2.25 ≥ 1.7 12.3 < 27.2 0.11 > -0.29 2.08 < 7.0 OK
5 EX 2.75 2.16 ≥ 1.3 13.6 < 40.8 0.00 > -0.50 2.14 < 12.6 OK
6 UN 2.50 1.94 ≥ 1.7 16.7 < 27.2 -0.19 > -0.29 1.88 < 7.0 OK
7 UN 2.73 2.15 ≥ 1.7 14.6 < 27.2 -0.07 > -0.44 2.14 < 9.1 OK
8 EX 2.34 1.85 ≥ 1.3 19.7 < 40.8 -0.43 > -0.75 2.32 < 16.4 OK
Note: *: The calculated value I indicates the value at dam-foundation interface; while the calculated value L
indicates the value at RCC lift joint.
**: Signs: “+” indicates compression; “–“ indicates tension.
88 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
The predicted time dependant adiabatic temperature rise for the mixes was calculated
based on the chemistry of the typical moderate heat cement. This was then slightly
adjusted based on historical data from tests at other RCC projects with different
cementitious contents in RCC. Figure 8.5 shows the resulting time dependant adiabatic
temperature rise for each mix.
Figure 8.3: Initially Recommended Overall Combined Gradation for the RCC
100
90
Minimum
80
Maxmum
70
Ideal For Middle Cement Content
60
% Passing
50
40
30
20
10
0
0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00
Size (mm)
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 10 100 1000
AGE (Days)
18
16
14
Strength (MPa)
12
10
8
Mix 65 +00 Mix 85 +00
6
Note:
Assumed Moderate Heat ASTM Type II Cement
4 with 70 cal/gm at 7 days
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360
Age in Days
The above estimates have been based on experience gained on other RCC dam projects.
As soon as possible, tests should be done for thermal and other properties of the RCC
mixes using the actual cement and granite aggregates to be used in the dam. The tests
require specialised equipment and laboratory facilities, with personnel experienced in this
type of testing for RCC.
90 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
Thermal stresses can be superimposed on stresses from dead loads and applied loads. A
conservative approach is to do this by simple addition or subtraction. However, the real
stress situation will be less if the RCC has a non-linear stress strain behaviour with strain
softening as anticipated. In this case, the strains can be added algebraically, and then
used to determine the resulting combined stress. At this early stage in the design process,
a conservative linear elastic approach that allows directly adding stresses without
considerations of strain and non-linear behaviour has been adopted.
A detailed thermal analysis for the RCC dam is not possible because of the lack of basic
data. However, a rough calculation has demonstrated that various amounts of forced pre-
cooling in portions of the dam will be necessary. Post-cooling will not be necessary. The
amount and location of pre-cooling varies for different portions of the dam based primarily
on the time of year that placing actually occurs. In general, pre-cooling will be necessary
in the lower 25% to 50% of the dam. Some isolated places in the upper portions of the
dam may also need to be pre-cooled, especially at the restart of placement after a longer
suspension. Preliminary indications are that RCC placed at the base of the dam will need
to be pre-cooled to about 16°C to 18°C. This temperature rises to about 20°C when the
height has reached about 25% of the final height and to about 22°C when the height has
reached about 40% of the final height. The current thermal assessment indicates that the
weighted average daily placing temperature of the RCC can increase to 24°C or more for
most of the upper half of the dam. These temperature requirements are easily achievable.
Table 8.6: Permissible Temperature Differential (°C) in Several Large RCC Dams (H = (0.0 ∼ 0.2) L)
Max. Height Max. Block Length Permissible [∆Tmax]
Name of Dam Dam Type
(m) (m) (°C)
Jiangya RCC Gravity 131 >70 13
Longtan RCC Gravity 216 158 14
Gomal Zam RCC Arch-Gravity 133 78 15
Olivenhain RCC Gravity 97 78 16.5
Dworshak CC Gravity 219 152 16.7
Rihand CC Gravity 134 >70 14
Wuqiangxi CC Gravity 84.5 65 15.5
Research and practical experience indicate that, when the block length is less than 50 to
60 m, the thermal stresses will increase as the block length increases. However, when the
block length is greater than 60 m, the thermal stresses will no longer increase as the block
length increases.
The maximum block length of GD-3 RCC dam is about 80 m, longer than 60 m. Based on
the above-mentioned specifications and successful experience in RCC dam projects, and
in consideration of the fact that the strain capacity of the RCC used in GD-3 dam will be of
the order of 70x10-6 or less, the permissible temperature differential [∆T] of RCC for GD-3
RCC dam may be calculated as follows:
[∆Tmax] ≤ 13° ∼ 15°C for H=0 ∼ 0.2L
[∆Tmax] ≤ 15° ∼ 18°C for H=0.2 ∼ 0.4L (1)
[∆Tmax] ≤ 19°C for H ≥ 0.4L
The permissible temperature differential of concrete is equal to the difference between the
peak temperature Tmax and the ultimate stable temperature Tf of concrete, i.e. [∆Tmax] =
Tmax– Tf. Then, the maximum permissible temperature of concrete is
[Tmax] = [∆Tmax] + Tf (2)
The mean annual air temperature at the GD-3 dam site is about 20°C. According to
experience, this temperature can be taken as the ultimate stable temperature Tf of the
RCC dam. On basis of this value, the permissible peak temperature in concrete is thus
determined:
[Tmax] ≤ 33 ∼ 35°C for H=0 ∼ 0.2L
[Tmax] ≤ 35 ∼ 38°C for H=0.2 ∼ 0.4L (3)
[Tmax] ≤ 39°C for H ≥ 0.4L
T p ≤ [Tmax ] − Tr (4)
where Tr is the peak temperature rise in the concrete. From Figure 8.5, the adiabatic
temperature rise of RCC with a cement content of 85 kg/m³ is about 18°C. Taking into
account the heat dissipated during curing equivalent to a temperature drop of about 1°C,
the peak temperature rise should be Tr = 17°C. Substituting this value into (4) and using
(3) results in:
Tp ≤ 16.0 ∼ 18.0°C for H=0 ∼ 0.2L
Tp ≤ 18.0 ∼ 21.0°C for H=0.2 ∼ 0.4L (5)
Tp ≤ 22.0°C for H ≥ 0.4L
Correspondingly, the temperature of fresh concrete at the batching plant Tb may be
estimated as the placement temperature subtracting the heat gain DT during transporting,
placing and compacting concrete.
Tb ≤ 16.0 ∼ 18.0°C - DT for H=0 ∼ 0.2L
Tb ≤ 18.0 ∼ 21.0°C - DT for H=0.2 ∼ 0.4L (6)
Tb ≤ 22.0°C - DT for H ≥ 0.4L
92 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
In GD-3 dam area, the air temperature varies within a narrow range from 18°C to 21.7°C,
which is advantageous to the temperature control for the RCC. In this case, it is estimated
that the temperature at the batching plants should be of the order at 13° to 15°C. To
achieve this value, measures, such as precooling of aggregate, using ice flakes and
chilling water as mixing water, will have to be adopted.
There are a two principal ways of arranging an “all conveyor system” – the tower belt
system and the jack-post system. The tower belt system would best suit the conditions at
the GD-3 dam site. The jack-post system, whereby a series of jack-posts supports each
line of conveyor, would require a large number of posts, and multiple lines of conveyor
because the jack posts have to be in a straight line and the conveyor lines cannot span
more than about 30 meters.
The tower belt system comprises includes very large tower cranes with a reach of about
100 meters. These are actually gigantic jack-posts, topped by a large crane. In Miel I the
RCC was placed over the entire width of the dam from abutment to abutment, while in
Longtan the RCC was placed in ‘groups of blocks’ similar to the way in which a
conventional concrete dam would be constructed. In consideration of the dimension of the
GD-3 RCC dam, it is recommended to use one all conveyor system with two towers – one
on the lower flanks of each abutment. The cranes will be capable of moving the belt
segments and belt equipment, as well as dealing with all other lifting work associated with
placing conventional concrete, placing concrete panels with PVC geomembrane, placing
and removing shutters, steel conduits or pipes, and for essentially any other lifting needed
on the dam.
The belt system should have a nominal delivery rate of 400 m³/h, with a peak that will be
more of the order of 700 m³/h. The towers would each feature 100 m long arms, capable
of carrying a maximum weight of 25 t at the arm end.
94 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
be essential to economy and schedule for the GD-3 RCC dam. Wherever necessary,
monolith joints can be formed by any one of a number of techniques. Form support
requirements are minimal, because the RCC becomes self supporting in a matter of
hours. In addition to helping schedule and productivity, the exposed face also provides
additional cooling.
If the differential monolith height exceeds about 20 meter, it would be appropriate to make
an assessment for the record of the response of the foundation, but it will likely show no
problem. The stresses from the weight of the RCC are very low compared to the bearing
capacity of the foundation rock and resulting deformations will be negligible. In reality, the
biggest differential at a vertical face is at the heel of the dam. If this is acceptable, all
monolith joints on similar foundation should be acceptable.
The issue of moving equipment from one monolith or group of monoliths to the other at a
different location would be a major obstacle if trucks were used for delivery, but it is not a
problem for the “all conveyor” delivery system with its associated large tower cranes. The
conveyor simply swings to the new location, and the tower crane moves whatever
equipment needs to be re-positioned.
Vertical Deformation
To determine the vertical deformations of the dam structure, precision levelling lines
across the dam top and the galleries should be installed. Stations for measurements are
located on each dam blocks, but the spacing of the adjacent stations should not exceed
about 35 m. The levelling should begin and end at locations sufficiently distant from the
dam (for example, on the fresh and sound rock about 3 km downstream of the dam toe) to
avoid locations which would be materially affected by vertical displacement of the dam.
96 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
Uplift Pressure
The measurement of uplift pressure at the dam-foundation interface consists of a
longitudinal observation section and three transverse observation sections. In the
longitudinal section, the measuring points should be installed on the immediate
downstream side of the grout curtain which will be observed in the grouting gallery. The
spacing of the measuring points should be about 20 meters. Two of the three transverse
sections are located at the centreline of each of spillway blocks. The other observation
section is arranged in the non-overflow section of the RCC dam where the dam has its
maximum height. In each of the transverse sections, five measuring points shall be
arranged with a distance between two adjacent points of about 20 m. The quantity and
location of the monitoring points may be adjusted after the excavation of dam foundation
rock according to the actual geological conditions. For measurements of the uplift
pressure at the dam foundation, piezometers or pore pressure cells should be installed.
The measurements of seepage pressure inside the dam body are mainly concentrated in
the spillway section. The instruments shall be embedded inside the dam body at a lift joint
at about el. 1017.0 m and el. 1040.0 m. Six piezometers on each of the two lift joints
should be installed in the dam body at distances of 0.2 m, 0.8 m, 1.5 m, 3.0 m, 7.0 m and
15.0 m from the upstream face of the RCC dam. All piezometer cables should be led to
the monitoring station in the grouting gallery.
Earthquake Observation
In order to observe the response of the RCC dam to any earthquakes, two strong-motion
seismographs should be installed in the dam. One seismograph should be installed in the
grouting gallery at el. 1018.0 m of the non-overflow dam section with the maximum height
and the other at the dam top in the same section.
Geodetic Measurements
A system of triangulation targets on the face of the dam should be established from off-
dam references. The targets should be located on the gauge lines of instruments and on
the locations of the plumb line reading stations projected radially from the plane of the
axis. The system requires a network of instrument piers and a baseline downstream from
the dam. The nature of the terrain and the topography of the area are governing factors in
the size of the network layout.
The instruments are summarised in Table 8.7 below.
98 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Dam
9.1 Introduction
9.1.1 General
This chapter describes the various functional, design and performance criteria, the layout
development and the dimensions and details incorporated in the various civil works
components of the Genale-Dawa 03 Hydropower Project (also known as the GD-3
Hydropower Project). The GD-3 Dam, its associated design philosophy and provisions are
described separately in the chapter on dam design. The individual civil works components
are shown with their dimensions and details in the Album of Drawings which accompanies
this feasibility study report.
100 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
Tailrace Tunnel:
Tailrace tunnel type Pressure flow, circular, concrete lined
Design flow rate 115.7 m3/s
Length and diameter 1,480 m584, 6.1 m
102 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
Powerhouse:
Location Approximately 90 m below ground
Description Underground rock cavern
Excavation dimensions 60 m long, 20 m wide, 40 m deep
Installed capacity 254 MW in three, Francis turbine-generator units
Unloading and erection bay floor level 839.52 m asl
Generator floor level 835.52 m asl
Turbine floor level 831.12 m asl
Inlet valve floor level 826.18 m asl
Drainage sump floor level 819.92 m asl
Switchyard:
Description 230kV conventional outdoor
Elevation 910 / 915 / 920 m asl (terraces)
Length and width 179m by 112m
Upstream of the dam site, the shallow gradient offers storage, while downstream of the
dam site, the steep gradient offers the head. Both ingredients are exploited by the
hydropower scheme.
1,500
1,400
1,300
Elevation (m asl)
1,200
Sur g e T ank
R eser vo ir F SL
1,100
Po wer W at er way
1,000
Genale R iver
900
104 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
concrete. The dam foundation footprint within this protected “trapezium” will be cleared of
overburden and a low level reinforced concrete culvert will be founded through the base of
the dam. The culvert will be completed and the dam blocks on the right bank raised to an
elevation of at least 1060 m asl (some 45m above river bed elevation) before the end of
the first flood season.
During the second low flow season, the upstream and downstream concrete dykes will be
removed and two new cofferdams will be built across the low flow season channel,
upstream and downstream of the left bank dam foundation footprint. These new
cofferdams will be of rock and impermeable earth material. With this arrangement, the
river will be diverted into the culvert built through the base of the right bank dam blocks.
The left bank dam foundation footprint will be drained and excavated and RCC will be
placed to raise the left bank dam blocks up to the level of the right bank blocks during the
second low flow season and into the subsequent high flow season. During this
construction phase, the culvert will act as a throttle to the river flow. Floods will cause the
water level upstream of the dam to rise with the risk of overtopping the protection works
and flooding the left bank foundation footprint area.
Once the left bank dam blocks have been raised to the level of the right bank blocks,
further raising will be made over the entire surface until the dam reaches its final crest
elevation. Once the spillway is finished, the diversion intake will be closed by stoplogs and
plugged. In order to have sufficient time to properly set the stoplogs and seal the culvert
inlet, this activity will be carried out during the low flow season (preferably in February or
March). The Genale River will be temporarily dammed some 4 km upstream of the dam
site as it enters the narrow gorge. A low dam of earth and rock some 5 to 7m high will
retain almost 10Mm³ of river flow in the huge flat area upstream of the gorge. During the
low flow season, with average river flows of some 30-40 m³/s, this flat area will fill slowly
over 2 to 3 days before the temporary dam is overtopped. This time will be sufficient to set
the stoplogs and seal the inlet to the diversion culvert.
the water level rising above the cofferdam crests and flooding the left bank dam
foundation footprint.
! For the high flow season following the second low flow season, again a flood with an
estimated return period of once in 20 years was adopted. The culvert capacity must be
high enough to prevent the water level rising above 1060 m asl – the dam construction
level expected to be reached during that high flow season.
1025
1024
1023
1022
Elevation (m asl)
1021
1020
1019
1018
1017
1016
1015
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Discharge (m³/s)
The design exercise involved selecting a combination of culvert capacity and cofferdam
heights which would satisfactorily pass the respective design floods. A classical
optimization exercise is not practical, indeed not necessary, for such a staged diversion
arrangement given the relatively low cost of the scheme - it does not involve the
106 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
It was assumed that the inlet surfaces to the culvert inlet would project out of the dam wall
and be grooved or rounded, therefore the Type (3) parameters would be applicable. Using
these parameters in the above equation, the dam blocks under construction would have to
be raised to at least 1042.6m asl in order to be safely above the level of the once in 20
year flood. This would be easily achievable before the onset of the second high flow
season. Indeed, as mentioned above, it was estimated that a level of 1060m asl would be
achievable on the RCC blocks on both banks of the river.
The sequence of river diversion and dam construction are presented in Drawing No. 5.5.
in the Album of Drawings (Vol. V).
108 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
Backfill concreting (plugging) of the culvert will commence as soon as the inlet is
successfully closed. In this regard, the reinforced concrete culvert roof and floor will
narrow gradually downstream of the inlet for some 10 to 15m, thereby creating a wedge
form for the plug. Following completion of plugging, it will be necessary to extend the drain
curtain across the conduit section and connect it to the principal drain curtain. This work
will be executed from the drainage gallery above the culvert. It is noted that it was
necessary to design the culvert to resist the hydrostatic pressure that will apply until the
drains are completed. Some supplementary contact grouting will be required when the
plug concrete has cooled down.
! a steel pipe laid horizontally through, and embedded in, the dam and leading to,
! a butterfly guard valve on the downstream dam face leading to,
! a steel pipe anchored to the downstream dam face on the outside of the spillway
sidewalls, leading to,
! a Howell-Bunger discharge valve located on a plinth, level with the top of the stilling
basin side walls. The valves will be angled to discharge into the stilling basin.
In the very unlikely event that the entire mid-level outlet must be drained, the inlet
bellmouth will be closed by stoplogs. Guide rails are foreseen on the upstream dam face
and the stoplogs would be set using a mobile crane located on the dam crest. The pipes
will be ventilated from a valve located in the inspection gallery.
The pipework and valves will be arranged on both sides of, and outside, the spillway
walls. Both discharge and guard valves will be located outside the dam body on the
downstream dam face under cover. The valves will not operate during spilling. If the GD-3
dam is spilling, then it is almost certain that the two downstream dams will also be spilling
or at least close to spilling and thus they will not be in immediate need of a water supply
from upstream. Once spilling has ceased and the valves are in operation, the aerated
conical jets will discharge into the stilling basin. The Howell-Bunger discharge valves will
be located on a plinth level with the top of the stilling basin sidewall and directed into the
stilling basin.
From the above it is evident that even at Minimum Operating Level, a significant discharge
could be released downstream in the event that the GD-3 power scheme is out of
operation.
110 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
9.3 Spillway
9.3.1 Introduction
A spillway is an outlet from a reservoir or section of a dam designed to release surplus
flood water that cannot be stored for generating power, for irrigation, for water supply or
for discharge through some other outlet works. Ordinarily, this surplus water is drawn from
the top of the reservoir and conveyed through a constructed waterway back to the river or
to some natural drainage channel. This waterway must be of sufficient hydraulic capacity
to safely contain the high velocity flows created by the drop from the reservoir surface to
the tail water. The waterway material must be erosion resistant to withstand the high
scouring velocities and arrangements must be made at the foot of the spillway to ensure
that the discharges to not undermine the foundations of the dam.
Investigations presented in the chapter on dam design proved that a dam constructed of
RCC offered the least cost solution at the GD-3 site. A principal benefit of the RCC dam is
that it offers the opportunity of incorporating a simple in-line spillway on top of the dam.
The flood waves arriving at the spillway will have been greatly attenuated by the huge GD-
3 reservoir – that is their peak flows will have been greatly reduced. For such a situation, a
simple overflow spillway built on top of the dam is both a common, as well as a low cost
solution. The overflow spillway should be un-gated for reasons elaborated below.
Un-gated spillways offer the following advantages:
! They provide maximum safety to downstream riparian users since there is no
possibility of the spillway outflow ever exceeding the reservoir inflow. With an
uncontrolled overflow crest of the type proposed for GD-3, the outflow peak can never
be greater than the inflow peak.
! They eliminate the risk of operator mistakes.
! They are much less prone to blocking by floating debris washed into the reservoir
during floods.
! They provide substantial flood mitigation benefits. A substantial part of any flood
discharge goes into temporary storage in the part of the reservoir above the FSL. The
area of the reservoir is significant and so the volume available to temporarily store the
floodwaters is correspondingly significant. This results in a substantial reduction in
flood outflows. The outflow duration thus becomes longer than the duration of the
inflow flood.
Gated spillways, although offering a high discharge capacity, suffer from the following
disadvantages:
! Higher initial cost, including the steel gates and their auxiliaries. Gated spillways
require stoplogs for maintenance often have lifting gantries to both operate and
maintain the gates and stoplogs. Gated spillways generally require electrical power for
their operation and are often controlled by programmable logic computers and
software all of which adds to the cost,
! Higher maintenance costs,
! Prone to failure due to failure of normal and backup power supplies under extreme
flood conditions.
! Prone to mal-operation creating risk of flooding downstream or overtopping of dam.
An un-gated free overflow spillway was selected for the reasons explained above.
run-up from the significant wave generated by a wind with an estimated return of once
in 100 years.
! Limited overtopping of the dam crest may occur (that is no dry freeboard is required)
during the passage of a PMF, combined with the run-up from the significant wave
generated by a wind with an estimated return of once in 100 years.
With regard to the sidewalls of the spillway chute, the performance criteria are as follows:
! A freeboard of at least 20% of the maximum air-water mixture depth occurring along
the spillway chute must be provided by the chute sidewalls during passage of the flood
having a return period of once in 10,000 years.
! The sidewalls must be sufficiently high to contain (without considering splash and/or
surface waves) the air-water mixture depths resulting from passage of a PMF.
With regard to the stilling basin, the performance criteria are as follows:
! A freeboard of at least 2.5m must be provided on the stilling basin sidewalls during the
passage of the flood having a return period of once in 10,000 years.
! At the peak discharge occurring during the passage of the PMF, the hydraulic jump
must be fully formed within the stilling basin to ensure that the flow discharging from
the stilling basin is “tranquil” (that is, sub-critical with the Reynolds number of flow less
than unity).
The above performance criteria are on the high side for concrete dams. While there are
no recognised international standards for the design of dams and their overflow works, it
is recognised that concrete dams and their spillways are very resistant to overtopping by
flood waters – several countries have adopted design standards for concrete dams based
on floods with return periods of once in 5,000 years or even once in 1,000 years. In effect,
the above performance criteria define the flood with a return period of once in 10,000
years as the design flood and the PMF as the check flood. The design flood must be
passed with a sufficient margin of safety. The check flood must be passed, but without a
margin of safety. The exception is the stilling basin where the check flood is not
considered for the sidewall height. This is normal practice, since any overtopping of the
stilling basin side walls a flood more extreme that the design flood may cause some
damage but would not have a direct impact on dam safety.
112 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
formation of hydraulic jump. The stilling basin will be drained by means of drainage holes
to relieve the uplift pressure beneath the plate.
1000
800 Inflow
Discharge (m3/s)
Outflow
600
400
200
0
0 50 100 150 200
Time (hours)
2500
2000 Inflow
Outflow
Discharge (m3/s)
1500
1000
500
0
0 50 100 150 200
Time (hours)
The degree of flood attenuation is considerable. For both the once in 20 year flood and
the once in 10,000 year flood, the peak outflows have been reduced to some 30% of the
peak inflows. This huge reduction in flood peaks will be of considerable benefit to
downstream communities.
114 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
The ogee nappe shape has been designed to the USACE, EM 1110-2-1630, Hydraulic
Design of Spillways [1] using the well known “ogee formula” (also known as the WES
curve):
1
Y= 0.85
⋅ X 1.85 (1)
2H d
where : Y = ordinate of ogee curve
X = abscissa of ogee curve
Hd = design head
The apex of the nappe is the origin of the coordinate system. The design head was
selected as Hd = 3.10 m, corresponding to about 65 per cent of the maximum head of 4.8
m for PMF. A double-circle curve with radii, R1, of 1.55 m (= 0.5Hd) and, R2, of 0.62m (=
0.2Hd) completes the upstream quadrant of the crest profile. The curves are tangentially
connected with each other. The resulting crest profile is presented below:
1120.5
1120.0
1119.5
Elevation (m asl.)
1119.0
1118.5
1118.0
1117.5
1117.0
1116.5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Distance from Spillway Crest (m)
energy dissipation. The maximum energy dissipation occurs if the stepped chute is long
enough to induce uniform flow, at which point the energy gradient is equal to the slope of
the chute.
For the assessment of the flow conditions along the stepped chute, and for the estimation
of the residual energy at the entrance to the stilling basin for the design and check floods,
empirical design approaches are available. These empirical relations have been derived
mainly from experimental data. For the present design the empirical functions developed
by Boes and Minor [2] have been adopted.
As water spills over the crest and down the stepped chute, it accelerates and its depth of
flow decreases. The increasing flow velocity over the steps increases the turbulence
within the flow profile – this turbulent zone steadily rises from the water-step interface
towards the water surface with increasing distance from the crest. At a particular distance
downstream of the spillweir crest, known as the inception point, the turbulent zone
reaches the flow surface and immediately starts to absorb larger quantities of air into the
flow profile. From the inception point, the flow depth increases as air is drawn into the
flow. If the chute is sufficiently long, as it is at GD-3, a point is reached downstream of
which the depth and velocity of the air-water mixture remain constant or uniform. As
mentioned above, maximum energy dissipation occurs when the flow is uniform.
The flow characteristics down the spillway chute are a function of several characteristic
dimensions of the chute, namely:
! Chute height = 102m
! Chute gradient = 1(V) : 0.7(H)
! Chute slope length = 124.5m
! Chute width = 60m
! Step height = 1.2m
! Discharge at which skimming flow begins = 148m³/s
The results of applying the empirical functions of Boes and Minor to the stepped spillway
at GD-3 for the design and check floods are as follows:
Flood
Parameter
Once in 10,000 years PMF
Discharge, Q 660 m³/s 1,294 m³/s
Unit Discharge, q 11m³/s/m 21.6m³/s/m
Critical flow depth over spillweir, hc 2.31m 3.62m
Slope distance to inception point of air entrainment, Li 20.5m 35.2m
Inception air-water flow depth, hm,i 0.92m 1.38m
Inception air concentration, Ĉi 0.22 0.22
Inception clear water flow depth, hw,i 0.72m 1.07m
Slope distance to reach uniform flow, Hdam,u 59.2m 92.9m
Uniform clear water depth, hw,u 0.53m 0.83m
Clear water depth at toe of spillway, hw,e 0.53m 0.83m
Uniform characteristic mixture depth, h90,u 1.20m 1.85m
Uniform flow depth-average air concentration, Ĉu 0.56 0.55
The residual head at toe of spillway, Hres 27.2m 39.2m
From the above, the height of the chute sidewalls must be at least the greater of the
following:
! 1.2 × 1.20m (= 1.44m) in order to contain the once in 10,000 year flood with a
sufficient margin of safety, or
! 1.85m in order to contain the PMF (with no margin of safety).
116 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
For the present feasibility design, a sidewall height of 1.85m has been selected. They will
have a thickness of 1.0 m on each side of the chute down to the bottom deflector.
The jet of water entering the stilling basin must be forced into a hydraulic jump. This is
done by creating a deep enough water column at the end of the basin. This water column
is created by raising a sill at the end of the stilling basin and/or by lowering the basin floor.
Lowering the floor requires extensive excavation, thus the lowest excavation level was
limited to the lowest level of the river bed (1015m asl). Given the high dynamic pressure
fluctuations beneath a hydraulic jump, the floor slab thickness was set at 3m resulting in a
floor level of 1018m asl.
The calculations of stilling basin length and conjugate depths depend on the depth and
velocity of the influent flow. At the toe of the stepped spillway, a high proportion of air is
entrained in the flow. From the dam toe, along the bottom deflector to the hydraulic jump,
a portion of this entrained air is expelled from the flow. It has been found that, for the
estimation of conjugate depth and stilling basin length, the most reliable results are
obtained by using the equivalent clear water depths and velocities. The results of the
calculations are as follows:
Flood
Parameter
Once in 10,000 years PMF
Discharge, Q 660 m³/s 1,294 m³/s
Unit Discharge, q 11m³/s/m 21.6m³/s/m
Clear water flow depth at entrance to stilling basin, d1 0.51m 0.83m
Clear water flow velocity at entrance to stilling basin, v1 21.8m/s 26.1m/s
Influent Froude Number 9.8 9.2
Conjugate depth in stilling basin after hydraulic jump, d2 6.7m 10.3m
Length of stilling basin, Ls = (5 ~ 6) × (d2 –d1) 31m ~ 37m 48m ~ 57m
Water elevation in stilling basin after hydraulic jump 1024.7m asl 1028.3m asl
Water elevation in river channel immediately downstream 1021.6m asl 1023.4m asl
The height of the end sill, required to force the hydraulic jump, is a function of the water
level in the stilling basin, in the river channel downstream of the stilling basin and the
distribution of velocities within the stilling basin. An accurate theoretical solution is not
generally possible, but a good approximation of the required sill height is:
Hsill = 0.85 × (Elevationstilling basin - Elevationriver)
For the present feasibility design, the following dimensions have been adopted for the
stilling basin:
! Overall length = 60m
! Sidewall height above floor level = 9m
! Sill height = 5m
In order to confirm the dimensions of the stilling basin and the subsequent excavation and
concrete volumes, it is strongly recommended to perform hydraulic model tests at a
comparatively large scale (1:20 – 1:25).
118 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
value indicates an angle of friction of 35° and cohesion of 300kPa on the rock joints. This is
equivalent to a Geological Strength Index (GSI) of 57 (Hoek and Brown 1997).
The RocLab 1 programme, available from RocScience, predicts a rock mass global
strength of about 6MPa and a modulus of deformation of about 6GPa for the schists
based on a rock mass with a uniaxial strength of 50MPa and a GSI of 57.
The schists, gneisses, and granites are banded or inter-layered, with the layers varying in
thickness. The borehole cores comprised some 60% feldspathic schists and biotite schists
and 40% pegmatite, pegmatitic granite and granite.
It is likely that the behaviour of the rock mass in the tunnel will be dictated by the weaker
or poorer quality rock, i.e. the schists with an (RMR89) of 62 which also form the greater
proportion of the rock mass. The value of the RMR will also be affected by the orientation
of the tunnel relative to the foliation. The tunnel has a direction from the launch portal of
315° while the foliation in the schists has a near parallel strike orientation of about 330°.
This is generally favourable but where the foliation dip is flatter than 45°, as it occasionally
is, then the RMR would decrease to 57, i.e., a fair rock mass class.
From interpretation of air photographs, the length of headrace tunnel affected by the
schists is not expected to be significant. For feasibility design and estimation of quantities,
it is assumed that 80% of the headrace tunnel will be in pegmatoidal granite with an
(RMR89) of 88 and 15% will be in schist and granites with an (RMR89) of 62 and 5% will
be in low angled schists and granites with an (RMR89) of 57.
The headrace tunnel will be some 12,400m long and be dimensioned to convey a
maximum flow of 116 m³/s. The combination of a long tunnel through a relatively strong
rock mass favours excavation by TBM. A TBM forms a reasonably smooth bore, circular
in profile, which does not justify a lining to reduce hydraulic friction losses. The high
proportion of feldspar in the pegmatoidal granite makes it easier to excavate than
conventional granite which normally has a higher quartz content. Rates of advance are
therefore expected to be higher than for a normal quartzite with less wear and tear on the
TBM. The schists or schists inter-layered with the granites will also be easily excavated.
The TBM will result in a very smooth bore in the very massive relatively un-jointed
pegmatoidal granites so that these rocks will not require a concrete lining. Some shotcrete
protection may be required where more jointed or poorer quality rock mass is encountered
but this is expected to be limited. In the inter-layered granites and schists, a greater
proportion may require shotcrete protection.
The headrace tunnel crosses numerous major lineaments, mostly major joints and
possibly a few faults. The joint conditions observed to date in the field and in the
boreholes are tight and unlikely to have much effect on the tunnel. Information on faulting
to date also indicates these to be of limited width.
The excavation slopes for the TBM launch portal in the schists will need to take into
account the foliation dip for excavating stable slopes. The average foliation dip is about
45° but it varies between 30° and 60°. Safe slopes can be assumed to be about 45° but
where the foliation is flatter; the slopes will require support in the form of bolting to avoid
wedge or planar failures. The amount of support will be dependant on the orientation of
the cut slopes relative to the strike of the foliation which is generally about 330°.
The tunnel alignment will descend at a gradient of some 3‰ from the power intake to the
surge tank and pressure shaft. Excavation will start from the downstream end at a portal
cut into the hillside below the surge tank and proceed in an upstream direction – thus the
tunnel will drain by gravity. After excavating a short (circa 70m) tunnel section including a
TBM starter pipe by conventional drill and blast (D&B) the TBM will be launched. It will
bypass the surge tank and the head of the pressure shaft and excavate almost 10,500m
up to a dismantling chamber some 2,100km from the power intake. From the dismantling
chamber, it will be removed to the surface through an access adit. This access adit will be
about 400m long and start from an incised valley to the west of the tunnel and intersect
the tunnel some 2,000m from the power intake. In this way, the excavation and
construction of the headrace surge tank, the pressure shaft and the power intake will be
carried out independently of the headrace excavation – thereby reducing the overall
construction time. The power intake and first 2,100m of headrace tunnel will be excavated
conventionally from both upstream and downstream via the TBM removal adit. The surge
tank will also be excavated by conventional drill and blast from the top down.
The results, in terms of construction costs, costs of foregone energy and total costs, for a
range of diameters, is presented in the graph below:
7000
6000
5000
Cost (US$/linear m)
4000
Construction Cost
3000
Cost of Foregone Energy
2000 Total Cost
1000
0
7 7.5 8 8.5 9
Tunnel Diameter (m)
120 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
The above graph shows that the optimum unlined, TBM driven headrace tunnel diameter
lies between 7.9 m and 8.3 m. For the present feasibility design, a diameter of 8.1 m has
been adopted. However, it is worth noting that the above curve of total cost (construction
+ foregone energy) is very flat in the region of the optimum tunnel diameter. A tunnel
diameter as low as 7.5m or as high as 8.5m would have little influence on the overall
project feasibility. At the time of tendering, it would be worth permitting contractors to offer
within the above diameter range. The availability of a second hand TBM within the above
diameter range in Ethiopia or in a neighbouring country could reduce overall tunnel costs
significantly.
section will be removed via the downstream construction adit and the main access tunnel.
The pressure tunnel will be excavated from the lower powerhouse level to the foot of the
pressure shaft. The inclined pressure shaft will be excavated from the top down also by
conventional drill and blast. Spoil will be mucked out through the construction adit at the
top of the pressure shaft. Excavation support and stabilisation measures in the tunnels
and shaft are anticipated to be minimal.
The steel lining, immediately upstream of the powerhouse will be installed in 4m long
cans. These cans will be erected on the surface and brought underground for installation.
There are two alternative access routes for these cans – either through the main access
tunnel to the erection bay level in the powerhouse and then through an adit into the
headrace pressure tunnel or secondly from the head of the pressure shaft down to the
pressure tunnel. The first access approach is shorter but traffic from other activities may
make it less attractive. Once installed, the steel lining will be backfilled with concrete.
Grouting nipples will be provided on the inner surface of the steel lining for contact
grouting between the steel liner and its backing concrete.
122 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
124 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
The horizontal areas of each tank – 415m² and 323m² for the upstream and downstream
tanks respectively - greatly exceed the respective minimum areas required for stable
operation.
This system would perform under the given load cases as follows:
Reservoir Upstream Surge Tank Downstream Surge Tank
Load Case Description Level Upsurge Downsurge Upsurge Downsurge
(m asl) (m asl) (m asl) (m asl) (m asl)
Full Load
1 100 - 0 1080.00 - 1053.60 851.90 -
Acceptance
Full Load
2 0 - 100 1120.00 1147.70 - - 829.60
Rejection
Acceptance
3 0-100-0-100 1080.00 - 1039.80 853.60 -
+ Rejection
Rejection +
4 100-0-100-0 1120.00 1155.10 - - 828.40
Acceptance
The surge tanks have been dimensioned to accommodate the extreme upsurges and
downsurges with freeboard and submergence margins. The crest of the upsteam surge
shaft has been set to provide over 2m of freeboard. The head of the throttle has been set
to provide over 2m of submergence at minimum downsurge. A 3m high sill will be
constructed across the top of the construction adit that will be used as the downstream
surge chamber. The crest of this sill - that is the level at which water would overflow into
the main access tunnel and down to the powerhouse - has been set at 857m, thereby
providing a freeboard of over 3m during load case 3 – the most extreme load case that is
ever likely to occur.
Having selected two surge tanks that will ensure stable operation and confine water-
hammer to short reaches of waterway, it must be checked that the two hydraulically
connected tanks to not resonate with each other and cause unstable intervening surges.
This check involves ensuring that the fundamental periods of oscillation of each tank
differs by at least 10%.
The fundamental period of oscillations (T) in a tank is expressed as:
L ⋅ AS
T = 2π
g ⋅ AT
where:
L = length of the waterway driving the mass oscillation (m),
AT = cross-sectional area of the waterway driving the mass oscillation (m²),
AS = horizontal area of surge tank (m²),
g = acceleration due to gravity (m/s²).
In the following, the upstream and downstream surge tanks are denoted with “u” and “d”,
respectively. The two surge tanks will be out of the resonance zone with respect to each
other, when the following ratio of the fundamental periods of oscillations is satisfied:
Tu
≥ 1.1
Td
Substituting the relevant data into the ratio, we have
126 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
Safe slopes for the open excavation will vary for the weathered and unweathered granite
and a berm should be excavated at the interface. In weathered granite, slopes should be
approximately 1:1 (V:H) protected by shotcrete against erosion and provided with
drainage to avoid pore pressures. In unweathered granite the safe slopes should be 2:1
(V:H). Some spot bolting and shotcrete may be required. Pre-split drilling and blasting
should be used for excavations in the unweathered granite because of the very wide joint
spacing.
The bellmouth intake, the intake barrel, the stoplog opening and the stoplog shaft will be
excavated by drilling and blasting into the steep valley flank and constructed of reinforced
concrete. All excavated surfaces will be lined with reinforced concrete. The level of the
intake’s operating deck will be the same level as the crest of the dam which is
1125.00 m asl. The intake’s operating deck will be accessed via a road from the dam
crest. The intake structure will incorporate trash racks with a raking machine and stoplogs.
For inspecting the headrace tunnel, the emergency gate at the base of the surge shaft will
be closed and the power intake stoplogs will be set by a mobile crane under stationary
flow conditions. Its operating deck shall be provided with handrails apart from at the front
where such handrails would impede the operation of the trash raking machine. The intake
shall be provided with electrical power for operating the raking machine and for supplying
associated small consumers (eg electric lighting).
storage of the stoplogs in the upper part of the gate slot. The stoplogs shall be designed
according to the Standard DIN 19704 or similar. They will be fabricated from weldable,
structural grade steel to ASTM, DIN, British Standards or equivalent. Applicable local
standards may also be used. Under the applied hydraulic loading the deflection of all
structural members shall be limited to the values specified in DIN 19704.
2
“Civil Engineering Guidelines for Planning and Design of Hydroelectric Developments”,
ASCE/EPRI, 1989.
3
“Civil Engineering Guidelines for Planning and Design of Hydroelectric Developments”,
ASCE/EPRI, 1989.
128 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
restricted so as not to cause excessive pressure rise in the headrace tunnel and pressure
drop in the pressure shaft. The gate will be opened, under balanced pressure only, by a
pressure oil servomotor supplied by a separate oil pressure unit. The operating oil
pressure will be between 120 bar and 180 bar. Pressure balancing will be achieved by
crack opening of the gate by some 40 mm - no additional filling valve will be required. In
the open position, there is a tendency for the water moving in the gate shaft to cause
hanging gates to swing. To prevent this swinging motion, and the subsequent impact
damage to either or both the gate rollers or the roller track, the gate will be braced by
wedges against the roller tracks.
Bridge Crane
For repair and maintenance purposes in the emergency gate chamber, one overhead
bridge crane of 30t lifting capacity will be provided. The bridge, trolley and hook will be
controlled by a cable suspended push bottom panel.
843
842
Elevation (m asl)
841
840
839
838
837
0 500 1,000 1,500
Discharge (m³/s)
The water level in the Genale River at the outfall will largely be the result of the rated
discharge (115.7m3/s) from the tailrace tunnel. The GD-3 reservoir will only spill a small
quantity of water. The average spill over the 3 to 4 month wet period will be of the order of
15 – 20 m3/s. There will also be run-off from the circa 1,000 km2 intervening catchment
area between the GD-3 dam and the outfall. This run-off will translate into an average
river discharge of some 6 m3/s distributed as some 1m3/s to 2m3/s during the 4 driest
months between December and March and 10 m3/s to 12 m3/s during the 3 highest flow
months between August and October. Therefore, the Genale River at the tailrace outfall
will discharge on average some 118 m3/s during the dry season and some 130 m3/s
during the wet season. From the rating curve, these average discharges translate to
average river water levels over the year ranging between 839.5 m asl and 840.0 m asl.
Storms over the intervening catchment will raise the river level slightly in the high flow
season. For the purposes of the present feasibility design, an average normal water level
of 840.0 m asl has been selected. To avoid unnecessary head losses at the tailrace
outfall, the soffit of the tailrace bellmouth outfall has been set at 839.5 m asl – 0.5m below
the normal river water level. The sill separating the river bed from the outfall will have a
crest level of 838.8 m asl and will discharge the rated flow with minimal head loss.
The stoplogs will be stored in a pit adjacent to the outfall and set and lifted by mobile
crane that would be parked on a platform above the outlet. The level of this platform will
be 845.0 m asl – some 2m above the highest flood level. For periodical inspection and
maintenance, the tailrace outlet stoplogs will be set and the tunnel will be pumped empty
by the powerhouse drainage pumps – capacity 3 × 115 l/s. The volume of water held in
the tailrace tunnel is some 47,000m³, thus the time to empty will be of the order of
38 hours. Access to the empty tunnel will be through a shaft upstream of the stoplogs.
130 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
The powerhouse will accommodate the three spherical type main inlet valves, the three
vertical axis Francis turbine units, and three vertical axis generators which will be located
above the Francis turbines. The Francis turbines and the generators above them will be
connected by a common shaft. Various auxiliary mechanical and electrical plant will also
be located inside the powerhouse. The powerhouse will also include an unloading and
erection bay.
Since the powerhouse cavern is some 100 m underground, the transformers will also be
located underground in order to minimise the length of the expensive low-voltage isolated
phase bus ducts from the generators to the transformers. It would be prohibitively
expensive to take the low-voltage isolated phase bus ducts over 100m to surface
transformers. While locating the transformers close to the generators reduces costs, it
also reduces safety slightly because transformers do present a fire risk, albeit a small risk.
In order that the reduction in safety is kept within manageable limits, the transformers will
be installed in a separate underground transformer cavern. A separate cavern offers the
opportunity of isolating, with fire doors, any fire. This separate transformer cavern will be
located on the downstream side of the powerhouse cavern and will be parallel to the
powerhouse cavern as shown in the Drawing Album. The concrete lined tailrace manifold
will be located beneath the transformer cavern.
The high voltage cables will be taken to the surface switchyard via an inclined cable shaft.
This shaft will also serve as a ventilation duct. At the top of the shaft, ventilation fans will
expel air from the underground complex – forcing air to be drawn in through the main
access tunnel. The main access tunnel will be the principal escape route in an
emergency.
The cable shaft will start from a niche in the southern wall of the transformer cavern and
the high voltage cables from all three main transformers will be located within the single
shaft.
main station crane and be accessed via hatch openings through the floors above. The
hydraulic forces on the closed inlet valves will be transmitted forwards into the massive
reinforced concrete block surrounding the turbine. The inlet valve dismantling joint will
therefore be located on the upstream side of the valve.
The powerhouse will comprise five main floors, as follows:
! 839.52m asl – machine hall and erection bay floor,
! 835.52m asl – generator floor,
! 831.12m asl – turbine floor,
! 826.18m asl – main inlet valve floor,
! 819.92m asl – drainage floor.
The powerhouse cavern will be excavated mainly in schists with minor intrusions of
granite, pegmatoidal granite and pegmatites, similar to the pressure shaft and tunnel - the
rock mass is assessed to be fair to good.
The cavern has been positioned clear of known faults and its long axis is orientated in an
almost North-South direction, perpendicular to the general direction of the identified photo-
lineaments. The cavern roof is set at a depth of some 100 m below the general ground
level. The rock quality and in-situ stress regime should permit the adoption of vertical
sides for the cavern excavation. To minimise induced stresses in the surrounding rock the
roof vault will be formed as a parabola as shown on the drawings.
An unsupported excavation with a span of 20m would stand up for 3 to 8 days before
collapsing. The excavations will require systematic bolting and shotcrete in the crown and
spot bolting in areas of potential wedge failures in the side walls. The structure will require
more detailed mapping and drilling during design studies.
Excavation will be carried out by first driving a roof heading adit directly from the main
access tunnel, followed by pre-splitting the walls and then benching out the main body of
the cavern by drill and blast. Construction access to the mid-levels of the powerhouse
cavern will be via the main access tunnel as it enters the unloading bay. Construction
access to the lowest level of the powerhouse will be via the tailrace/low level construction
adit which also branches from the main access tunnel and will serve as the tailrace surge
tank.
132 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
The main access tunnel has also been sized to allow the passage of the steel lined
penstock’s cans and junctions once the construction ventilation ducts have been removed.
The diameter of the penstock cans will be 4.8 m and these will just fit down the main
access tunnel.
The main access tunnel will also accommodate permanent water pipes, cables, plus it will
form part of the ventilation circuit in that fresh air will be drawn down it.
The main access tunnel will be provided with a 200 mm thick paved concrete invert and it
will have drainage channels, one each side, next to the tunnel walls. Seepage water will
flow down these channels to the powerhouse where it will be piped into the drainage
sump and pumped out.
134 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
9.6.2 Switchyard
The 230 kV switchyard will be formed on a gently sloping area of ground adjacent to the
top of the cable and ventilation shaft. It will be formed in three terraced platforms by cut
and fill – each platform will be 180 m long by 40m wide with elevations at 910m asl, 915m
asl and 920m asl. The switchyard will be enclosed by high security fencing with a gate,
and will be accessed by the road leading to the control building.
As described in the chapter of this report on the Switchyard and Transmission System, the
switchyard compound will accommodate the equipment for the 230 kV interconnection line
to the town of Mega. In the most recent planning by the Ethiopian and Kenyan authorities,
the switchyard at Mega is foreseen as the node for converting to high voltage DC. The
switchyard will also accommodate a control building, a 11 kV switchgear building and a
diesel generator building with associated fuel storage tank.
From the table, 28.5km of vehicle track will be upgraded and 29.8km of new road will be
constructed.
4
American Association of State Highway and Transport Officials, US Federal Highway
Administration, Standard Plans for Highway Bridges, Vol. 1, Concrete Superstructures, US
Department of Transport, Washington DC, 1990.
136 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Civil Works and Hydraulic Steel Structures
1120.0
1110.0
Water Level (m asl)
1100.0
1090.0
1080.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
For setting out the turbines, a rated reservoir level (ROL) of 1107m asl has been selected.
This level corresponds closely to the average reservoir level throughout the year. With this
rated level, the turbines will be able to generate at full installed capacity, on average, for
between 5 and 6 months per year. During an average year, from the end of the dry
season in April until the reservoir level recovers in September, the generating capacity of
the turbines will reduce by some 2-3% at most.
138 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Mechanical Equipment
Tailrace Levels
The water levels at the outfall of the tailrace tunnel under different flow conditions are key
parameters in determining the head across the turbines and thereby the installed capacity
and main dimensions of the turbines. These levels are governed by the flow discharging
from the tailrace tunnel into the Genale River, the flow already in the Genale River from
the catchment upstream of the tailrace tunnel outfall and the hydraulic characteristics of
the Genale River channel at the tailrace outfall. Given the huge regulating capacity of the
GD-3 reservoir, the flows from the catchment upstream of the tailrace will generally be
very low. For setting out the turbines in the present study, it has been assumed that the
water level at the tailrace outfall is governed only by the flow discharging from the tailrace
tunnel into the Genale River and the hydraulic characteristics of the river channel at the
tailrace outfall. A rating curve was developed assuming uniform flow in the Genale River is
confined to a 90m wide rectangular channel with a gradient of 1:1,000. A Manning’s
roughness coefficient of 0.025 was adopted. The above parameters were estimated from
field observations and maps. The resulting rating equation is:
D = (Q × n/(B × i½))0.6
D = 0.058 × Q0.6
where: D = water depth at the tailrace tunnel outfall (m),
Q = discharge in the Genale River at the tailrace tunnel outfall (m³/s),
B = breadth of the river channel (m),
i = gradient of the river channel (-),
n = Manning’s roughness coefficient.
From maps and field observations, the bed elevation of the river channel at the tailrace
tunnel outfall has been estimated at 839 m asl. The resulting water levels at the outfall for
the tailrace tunnel are as follows:
Tailrace tunnel exit level corresponding to 33% of total 839.5 m a.s.l.
plant discharge or 1 unit in operation (TRL 1U)
Tailrace tunnel exit level corresponding to 100% of total 840.0 m a.s.l.
plant discharge or 3 units in operation (TRL 3U)
Gross Heads
The gross heads across the hydropower scheme are defined as the head differences
between the power intake and the tailrace outfall without considering hydraulic losses
along the waterways. The gross heads relevant for design are as follows:
Maximum gross head (HBMAX = FSL - TRL 1U) 280.5 m
Rated gross head (HBR = ROL - TRL 3U) 267.0 m
Minimum gross head (HBMIN = MOL - TRL 3U) 240.0 m
Head Losses
The hydraulic head losses through the various components of the power waterways, at
the rated flow of 115.7 m3/s, are as follows:
This value of total head loss, HLOSS3U, is that with all three units in operation. With one unit
in operation, the total head loss, HLOSS1U, is reduced to approximately 1.4 m.
Energy generation
From reservoir operation studies, the GD-3 reservoir will regulate the Genale river flows
sufficient to generate energy at the GD-3 powerhouse as follows:
Average energy generation = 1,640 GWh/ year
Firm energy generation = 1,600 GWh/ year
Installed capacity
The installed capacity of a hydropower scheme is defined as the electrical power available
at the high voltage side of the transformer terminals, produced by the units operating
under rated head and rated flow. It is calculated as follows:
PI = ηTU × ηG × ηTR × ηAC × ρ × g × HNR × QD × 10-6 ≈ 254 MW
where the following values have been assumed:
Acceleration due to gravity at the site g= 9.78 m/s2
Water density ρ= 1,000 kg/m3
Turbine efficiency at rated load and rated head ηTU = 91.2 %
Generator efficiency at rated load ηG = 98.0 %
Transformer efficiency at rated load ηTR = 99.6 %
Auxiliary consumption, expressed as system efficiency ηAC = 99.0 %
Plant factor
The plant factor of the GD-3 Hydropower Plant as defined by the firm energy generation
and the installed capacity, is as follows:
PF = (1,600,000 MWh/year) / (254 MW × 8,760 h/year) ≈ 0.72
Turbine type
For the given head and discharge, both Pelton and Francis turbines would be technically
feasible. Pelton turbines would have a slightly higher efficiency, but in order to remain
within the normal range of applicability for Pelton machines, more (at least two) would
have to be installed in order to reduce the unit discharge and the unit specific speed. More
units would increase costs (both mechanical and civil). Furthermore Pelton units would
have to be set a sufficient distance above the highest tailwater elevation to ensure
uninhibited rotation. This freeboard distance represents a headloss compared with Francis
turbines. A tailwater depression system, using compressed air can be installed to
overcome this problem, but such a system requires very large accumulators, very high
capacity compressors and a very reliable control arrangement. The associated costs
make Pelton turbines less attractive than Francis turbines.
For this reason Francis turbines have been judged as the most suitable turbine type for
the GD-3 Hydropower Plant. The slightly lower efficiency of the Francis units will be offset
by the higher net head and much lower overall investment costs.
For the head range and power output of the GD-3 Hydropower Plant, large numbers of
Francis turbines of similar size have been designed, constructed and commissioned by
various manufacturers world wide.
140 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Mechanical Equipment
Figure 10.2: Typical Turbine Selection Diagram Rated Net Head (HNR) versus (QR)
Rated Flow
Figure 10.3: Typical Specific Speed (nS) versus Rated Net Head (HNR)
From the above, a turbine speed of 428 rpm has been selected as the most suitable
solution. This selection agrees with Figure 10.3, which shows the relationship, based on
typical conditions, between specific speed (nS) and rated net head (HNR).
For a rated head of 254.5 m, the theoretical specific speed is nStheor = 117 and the
theoretical rotational speed is:
142 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Mechanical Equipment
428 rpm. A synchronous speed of n = 428 rpm has therefore been chosen for the GD-3
Hydropower Plant for planning and costing purposes.
n * ( PR × 10 3 )
The unit specific speed will be: n s = 1.25
= 124.48
H NR
Determination of submergence
The turbine setting has been established on the basis of the Thoma coefficient, σ, to
ensure turbine operation without cavitation, as follows:
σ = (Ha – Hv – HS)/HNR
where: HNR = Rated net head
Ha = Atmospheric pressure at the powerhouse altitude
Hv = Vapour pressure at given water temperature
HS = Difference between turbine distributor centreline and tailwater elevation
The minimum required submergence (HS), measured from the tailrace water elevation
corresponding to one unit in operation down to the centre line of the spiral casing, is
determined from an empirical relationship as:
HS = - 8.31 m
In line with modern industry practice, a safety margin of 2.00 m has been added to give a
required submergence of HS= - 10.31 for the GD-3 Hydropower Plant turbines. Thus,
relative to the tailwater elevation of 839.50 m a.s.l. (corresponding to one turbine in
operation), the centreline elevation of the spiral case is 829.19 m a.s.l.
Runaway speed
The runaway speed coefficient has been determined using an empirical formula based on
the unit specific speed and the maximum normal static head of 267 m to be:
runaway speed coefficient: fr =1.80
Thus the runaway speed,
nr = n × fr ≅ 770 rpm
The above calculated maximum runaway speed is an estimate sufficient for planning
purposes. The precise value to be used for the calculation of stresses in the turbine and
generator parts will be defined in the course of the detailed equipment design phase by
the turbine supplier.
Q
D3 = = 1.92m
Q13 * H NR
The spiral case and draft tube dimensions have been determined from statistical formulae
relating runner outlet diameter D3 to the other turbine dimensions.
Figure 10.5 indicates the general layout of a Francis turbine spiral case and draft tube, and
shows the overall dimensions required for sizing of the civil works structures. In the final
design, those dimensions may vary slightly depending on the selected supplier. Those
deviations will be insignificant and will not affect the basic lay-out and sizing of the
powerhouse structures. The weight of the turbine runner will be approximately four (4) tons.
Figure 10.5: General Layout of Francis Turbine, Spiral Case and Draft Tube
Turbine Performance
A representative turbine performance curve showing efficiency and power versus turbine
flow at rated net head is presented in Figure 10.6. This performance curve is based on
actual characteristics from different hydraulic models designed for similar specific speed,
tested by various suppliers during the last two decades. The curves closely represent the
“average performance” for the prevailing hydraulic conditions.
144 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Mechanical Equipment
Under the maximum net head of approximately 279.10 m (only one unit running) the
turbine will develop around 96 MW with a discharge of 38.5 m3/s.
The design of the turbine generally allows a load of approximately 98 MW at the maximum
net head.
Design criteria:
1) Maximum oil pressure in the governing system will not exceed:
a) for oil/air accumulator 70 bar
b) for nitrogen filled bladder or piston accumulator 120 bar
2) Capacity of oil accumulator:
The governor system will be provided with an oil/air or an oil/nitrogen type accumulator
with a capacity to meet the following requirements:
! The oil pumps are assumed to be disabled.
! The oil in the accumulator tank has dropped to the level where the pumps should
resume operation.
! The minimum normal oil volume in the pressure tank shall suffice to operate the
governor servomotors through one full opening and two full closing strokes without oil
pump assistance.
There is a strong tendency in the current market to utilise high pressure governing
systems because of their cost advantage and reduced space requirements achieved by
miniaturisation of the hydraulic components. The 120 bar system with an oil/nitrogen type
accumulator has been therefore adopted for design and costing purposes.
146 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Mechanical Equipment
Figure 10.7: Water Column Starting Time (Tw) versus Machine Starting Time (Tm)
From this relationship, the machine starting time, Tm, should be as follows:
Tm = f ( Tw ) ≈ 3.4 seconds
Flywheel effect
From the machine starting time, the minimum required flywheel effect for stable governor
operation is determined according to the following formula:
GD2 = Tm × 366000 × PR / n2
GD2 = 3.4 × 366000 × 87400 / 4282 = 593723 kgm² (= 594 tm2)
The flywheel effect is the stabilising influence on the turbine speed and speed change. In
case isolated operation of the power scheme would be required, the flywheel effect would
probably have to be increased. Detailed load and network studies would be necessary to
establish the precise value of the flywheel effect required for isolated operation.
The natural flywheel effect of an optimally (from the electrical point of view) designed
generator can be estimated according to the following empirical formula:
GD2 = (MVA1.25 × 0.7 × 106) / n2 in tm2
GD2 = (1031.25 × 0.7 × 106) / 4282 = 1254 tm2
The corresponding machine starting time, Tm, will be:
Tm = GD2 × n2 / 366000 × PR
Tm = 1254000 × 4282 / 366000 × 87400 = 7.2 s
This value of generator flywheel inertia and the corresponding starting time will be used
below for the calculation of the temporary speed rise at full load rejection.
Penstock pressure rise (water hammer)
Water hammer is a pressure change in a closed pipe caused when flowing water is
decelerated or accelerated by opening or closing of the turbine (in the case of a Francis
turbine by closing or opening of the wicket gates) or of the safety valve in front of the
turbine.
A simplified calculation according to rigid water column theory shows the order of
magnitude of the water hammer for linear closing characteristic of the turbine distributor.
The worst case scenario for deceleration of the water column in the penstock is
simultaneous emergency shut down of all units. Assuming a closing time of the wicket
gate servomotor of TC = 6 sec, the pressure rise due to an emergency shut down of the
units will be:
∆H ⎛K K2 ⎞
∆p = = ⎜ 1 + K 1+ 1 ⎟ × 100 = 20.86%
H S max ⎜⎝ 2 4 ⎟
⎠
where:
⎛ ∑ L ×V ⎞
2
K1 = ⎜⎜ ⎟ = 0.036
⎟
⎝ g × H S max × TC ⎠
HSmax = the maximum static head at the distributor centreline of 829.19 m a.s.l.
= 290.81 mWC
Tc = closing time of valve
= 6 seconds
Maximum dynamic head at the distributor centre line will be:
HDmax = 1.2086 × 290.81 = 351.47 mWC
This value of pressure rise is consistent with design criteria normally adopted for this type
of high head installation.
It should noted that high head Francis turbines (low specific speed turbines), exhibit
strong self-throttling characteristics during the speed increase associated with full load
rejection. This throttling of the discharge overrides, and is independent of, the closing of
the turbine distributor. This self-throttling behaviour depends on the hydraulic design of
the turbine runner and differs among turbine manufacturers. It is thus possible that an
automatic pressure–regulating valve will be required in order not to exceed the admissible
pressure rise in the penstock. Following the load rejection, this valve is opened rapidly as
the turbine distributor gate is closed, such that the velocity in the penstock remains
relatively constant. After that the valve closes slowly by matching the admissible pressure
rise.
Temporary Speed Rise
During a full load rejection, the unit accelerates due to the fact that the wicket gates can
only be closed relatively slowly to limit the pressure rise in the penstock to an acceptable
limit. The estimated temporary speed rise, ∆n, can be estimated from the following
empirical formula:
Tc
∆n = 1 + 0.8 (1 + ∆p ) − 1 = 0.3448 = 34.48%
Tm
where: Tc = wicket gate closing time (6.0 sec.)
Tm = machine starting time (7.2 sec.)
∆p = pressure rise (20.86 %)
This speed rise is quite acceptable, given that speed rises up to 50% are generally
common.
148 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Mechanical Equipment
Spherical valves in front of the turbines are the only shut-off devices suitable for operation
at the heads prevailing at the GD-3 Hydropower Plant. The spherical main inlet valves will
normally be designed to close safely against approximately double the maximum turbine
flow.
The valve diameter will be equal to or slightly larger than the spiral case inlet diameter to
avoid discontinuous flow entering the turbine. Considering the turbine dimensions outlined
above the spherical valves will be 2.00 m in diameter yielding a velocity of:
V = 4 × Q /(Π × D2) = 12.25 m/s
The valves will have manual/hydraulic operated upstream maintenance seal and
automatically operated service seal. The service seal, which is located on the downstream
side of the valve body, can be repaired or replaced at closed upstream maintenance seal
without dewatering of the penstock. A downstream dismantling joint sleeve will be
provided to facilitate replacement of the service seal.
The closing rate of the valve will be restricted so as not to cause excessive pressure rise
in the penstock when closing against maximum design flow during an emergency closure.
There are different operating systems in use with spherical valves:
1. opening/closing by oil pressure
2. opening/closing by pressure water taken from the penstock
3. opening by oil pressure/closing by pressure water taken from the penstock
4. opening by oil pressure/closing by closing weight
For security of closure, systems 3 and 4 are considered the most reliable solution since
the closing force (gravity force by closing weight or servomotor force from pressurised
water taken from the penstock) is always available whereas for oil closure, a generously
sized oil pressure system with a pressure accumulator is required. In the current market
there is little difference in price between the two systems but for design purposes system
3 was adopted because it needs slightly less space.
The inlet valves will be able to slide relative to their foundation plates and within the
dismantling sleeve on the downstream side to compensate axial displacements. Axial
forces will be born by the upstream steel lining.
The pressure oil for the spherical valves will be supplied by the governor oil systems with
possible maximum operating pressure between 70 and 120 bar.
The valves will be opened under balanced pressure only. The pressure balance will be
achieved through two (2) by-pass lines each of about 100 mm nominal diameter each,
equipped with a hydraulically controlled by-pass valve.
The time required to open the main valve under balanced conditions and the time for
closure will be adjustable between 60 and 120 seconds.
loss compared to butterfly valves, but require additional civil work and a bonnet type
design for operating the gate under the tailwater pressure.
Due to it’s reduced space requirements, dimensions and negligible the flap gate is be
considered as the most appropriate turbine outlet closure device. The flap gate will be fully
integrated into the draft tube steel liner resting during turbine operation in a recess. Figure
10.8 shows a typical installation of a flap gate in the turbine draft tube in fully closed position.
The final dimensions of the flap gate will be adopted to the draft tube dimensions and
contour. Preliminary the following dimensions of the flap gate can be provided:
! clear gate width 3.60 m
! clear gate height 2.60 m
The flap gate has to be designed for the maximum tailwater pressure plus pressure rise due to
load rejection of other units in the plant. Detailed studies and calculations would be necessary.
For the required turbine submergence depth of - 10.31 m below the minimum tailwater
level of 839.50 m a.s.l. the sill level of the draft tube flap gate will be at 820.92 m a.s.l. and
the maximum hydrostatic pressure on the flap gate will be considered at the maximum
tailwater level with:
HSMAX = 843.00 m a.s.l. - 820.92 m a.s.l.
= 22.08 m
The most convenient solution to open the flap gate will be by servomotor actuated by oil
pressure from the turbine governor oil supply system. Closing will be by gravity when the
oil pressure is released. However, in case of an heavy leakage into the cavern forced
closing of the flap gate would also be required with oil pressure.
Figure 10.8:
Typical Installation of
Draft Tube Flap Gate
During turbine operation or when no maintenance is carried out, the flap gate remains
open, held by the servomotor in position. To ensure the gate leaf is held firmly and in
order to avoid vibrations when the gate is in open position, the upper area of the recess is
vacuumed, pressing the leaf tight against the gate frame.
Relief of the oil pressure in the servomotors will be impossible, when the spherical valve is
not completely closed, that means, the flap gate will be closed only when the spherical
valve is closed. This will prevent the flap gate or parts of the turbine designed for tailwater
pressure from being inadvertently subjected to headwater pressure.
To fill the draft tube from the downstream tailrace tunnel before opening the gate, one (1)
by-pass line with a nominal diameter of about 150 mm should be provided for each gate.
Each by-pass line will be equipped with a manual operated by-pass valve.
150 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Mechanical Equipment
This means that each unit has to be equipped with a cooling system capable of dissipating
a heat load of 2260 kW.
The permissible temperature rise across the cooling unit is assumed to be ∆t = 5 °C.
With the specific heat of water, cp = 4.187 kJ/ kg °C, the required cooling water flow for
each generating unit will be:
m = Q/(cp × ∆t) = 2260/(4.187 × 5) ≈ 111.78 kg/second = 112 l/s.
A double circuit cooling water system with a closed secondary circuit filled with clean
water and equipped with wide gap plate type heat exchangers for heat transfer between
the primary and secondary circuits is considered the most appropriate solution for the
given conditions. The suitability of a potentially lower cost single open circuit should be
assessed during the tender design phase.
In the open circuit, the cooling water will be drawn from the cooling sump which is fed with
raw water from each of the turbine housings through a 250 mm diameter pipe located at
the bottom of the turbine pit, circulated through the intermediate heat exchanger and
afterward discharged into the draft tube. The wide gap, plate type exchangers do not need
the raw water used in the primary circuit to be fine filtered and a screen at the circulating
pump suction pipe plus automatic self flushing of 1,000 µ mesh size particles are sufficient
to prevent clogging of the heat exchanger. The water circuit for the turbine shaft seals will
be provided with a fine filter.
The closed secondary circuit will be filled with clean water treated with anti-corrosion
additives. This cooling water will be circulated in closed loops through the equipment
coolers (generator air/water heat exchangers, bearing oil/water heat exchangers,
governor oil/water heat exchangers, air conditioning chillers, transformer heat
exchangers) and re-cooled in the intermediate plate type heat exchanger.
Both circuits are equipped with two identical pumps. Both raw water pumps (in the primary
circuits) and also both two secondary water circulation pumps have 100% capacity to
function as duty and stand by.
The primary and secondary circuit water pumps, filters, duplex strainers, cyclone
separators and heat exchangers are arranged on the turbine floor.
Both sumps are interconnected by a pipe of 250 mm diameter and a shut-off valve to
allow the flow of the drainage water into the dewatering sump during emergency case and
dewatering of the turbine units.
All pumps are of the submersible type suitable for continuous operation, capable of
pumping raw water. The drainage and dewatering pumps will discharge into two (2) pipes
of size 350 mm embedded in concrete and routed along the tailrace tunnel up to the
outfall structure. The outlets of the drainage pipes shall be arranged above the maximum
TWL 843 m a.s.l.
152 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Mechanical Equipment
Drainage and dewatering pumps are automatically controlled by level switches installed in
the sumps. Each turbine draft tube will be connected to the dewatering sump by one (1)
pipe of size 150 mm with manually operated valve to allow dewatering of the turbine for
maintenance purposes after closure of the inlet valve and draft tube flap gate.
To be able to operate the drainage and dewatering system even if the external power
supply fails, the pumps should be fed in addition from the fixed installed emergency diesel
generating set.
An alternative arrangement with two cranes, each of lower lifting capacity, would be
slightly more expensive but would offer enhanced availability and flexibility if work were
being carried out simultaneously on two units. Together the cranes would be capable of
lifting the heaviest part, namely the generator rotor. This alternative arrangement should
be investigated during the tender phase by inviting alternative offers from suppliers.
! The major potential fire hazards and sources of smoke and combustion products are
the generators, the transformers, the electrical panels and all equipment containing
hydraulic oil. The ventilation system will minimise the circulation of combustion
products should a fire occur.
! Comfort levels will be particularly important in those areas where staff will be regularly
working during plant operation or routine maintenance. These areas will be the Control
Room, the machine hall floor and service bay as well as the turbine and generator
floors.
! Bus shaft and transformer cavern are normally not classified as working areas, the
principal consideration will be to limit temperatures to meet equipment operating
requirements
The proposed system will draw fresh air through the powerhouse access tunnel, circulate
this fresh air through all the floors of the powerhouse, then through the bus galleries to the
transformer cavern before discharging to the outside through the cable and ventilation
shaft.
The following basic criteria have been adopted for the preliminary layout and sizing of the
air conditioning and ventilation system:
! three air changes per hour minimum,
! the walls of the underground portion of the powerhouse are assumed at constant
temperature of 22°C,
! cooling water design temperature of 25°C maximum,
! outside air design temperature and humidity according to Table 10.5.
Table 10.5: Temperature and Humidity Values for Layout and Sizing of the Air
Conditioning and Ventilation System
Temperature Relative Humidity
Annual mean temperature 18°C 60 %
Absolute maximum 40°C 90 %
Absolute minimum 5°C 25 %
The control room will be air conditioned and the air conditioning unit will be placed in the
control block in the vicinity of the control room.
In the control room the minimum temperature will be not less than 18°C and the maximum
temperature will not exceed 28°C, with a maximum relative humidity of 50%.
154 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Mechanical Equipment
The sizing of the diesel generator set is based on the most severe operational case
represented by the loss of auxiliary power during two units operation. Estimated loads for
the power house are compiled in Table 10.6.
Table 10.6: Essential and Non-essential Electrical Loads for Unit Operation
Item Load (kW) Essential Non-essential
AC/DC rectifiers 10 *
Drainage pumps 30 *
Dewatering pumps 240 *
Lighting system 25 *
Socket system 15 *
Powerhouse crane 55 *
Air conditioning, ventilation 40 *
Service air compressor 10 *
Workshops 45 *
Governor pumping units 45 *
Cooling pumps 90 *
High pressure lub. pumps 10 *
Brake air compressors 3 *
Excitation cooling 3 *
Generator standstill heater 9 *
Total (kW) 630 566 64
With a power factor of 0.8, the minimum required rating of the diesel generator will be:
PDGmin = 566/0.8 = 708 kVA
The minimum safety margin for sizing shall be 15%.
PDGrequired = 708 × 1.15 = 814 kVA
The next available standard size for stand-by diesel generators is 500 kVA.
156 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Electrical Equipment
11.1 Introduction
The purpose of the feasibility studies was to identify, dimension and estimate the costs of the
principal components of the electrical equipment required in and around the power cavern for
safe and economic plant operation. The dimensions and layout of the equipment have been
developed and optimized to a detail sufficient to form the basis of a cost estimate.
The main electrical equipment of the power station will comprise the following:
! 3 Generators, 100 MVA, 11 kV, 428 rpm
! 3 Generator busduct connections (IPB)
! 3 Unit step-up transformers 110 MVA ,230/11 kV
! 3 cable system 230kV XLPE
! MV switchgear and installations
! 11 kV transmission line to the intake and other outdoor lcations
! Auxiliary transformers
! Low voltage switchgear
! 500 kVA emergency diesel generator set
! DC and UPS systems
! Cabling
! Lighting system and small power installations
! Earthing and lightning protection systems
! Protection systems for power cavern and 230 kV switchyard
! Control systems
! Communication systems
! Electrical workshop
11.4 Generators
11.4.1 Generator Output Rating
Dynamic stability in grids can be improved by operation of the synchronous generator in
the “over-excitation” range of the capability diagram. The supply of reactive power
requires however an increase of the MVA rating of the generator resulting in higher initial
investment cost and higher losses in the machines and transmission lines which vary
inversely with the power factor. The curves shown in Figure 11.1 illustrate typical relative
figures of price, weight and losses as a function of the rated power factor.
For the present study a rated power factor of 0.85 has been chosen according to
experience with similar plants. Based on the total installed plant capacity of 254 MW, and
the selected power factor, the generator capacity has been determined as 100 MVA per
unit.
158 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Electrical Equipment
1.5
Weight
1.4
1.3
Losses
1.2
1.1
0.9
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
tg ϕ=MVar/MW
R a te d V o l ta g e ( k V )
30
m a x im u m
25
20
m in im u m
15
10
0
20 40 100 300 600
G e n e r a to r R a ti n g (M V A )
Application Field of Generator Construction Types IM8425 (W41) & IM8225 (W42)
1000
MVA
100
10
IM8425 (W41)
1 IM8225 (W42)
10 100 n (rpm) 1000
IM8140 (W6)
Factor c > 0.08 or
IM8205 (W8)
160 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Electrical Equipment
According to all the above selection criteria, a generator type IM8425 (W41) is the most
appropriate. The combined thrust and guide bearing will be arranged on the upper
bracket, the lower guide bearing of the generator beneath the rotor. The thrust bearing
design will include an automatic high pressure oil injection system, which will provide an
oil film on the thrust bearing pads and prevent bearing damages during starting and
stopping of the unit.
162 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Electrical Equipment
Figure 11.4: Heat Exchanger for OWDF Transformer and Transformer Cooling Types
CW-Inlet
The transformer 11 kV terminals (LV) and the transformer secondary vector group will be
suitable for connecting to the isolated phase bus ducts. The 230 kV terminal box (HV) will
be compatible with the 230kV XLPE cable sealing ends.
The transformers and the associated 230kV cables will be protected against switching and
atmospheric over voltage by means of surge arresters, which will be installed in the 230kV
outdoor switchyard. If required surge arresters may have also to be arranged close to the
230kV XLPE cable sealing ends at the step-up transformer HV side. The necessity of
same is to be revealed by a surge voltage study.
The vector group for the step-up transformer will be YNd11 in accordance with the
Recommendations of IEC Standard No. 60076.
Oil Natural Air Forced ONAF Cooling Oil Directed Water Forced ODWF Cooling
Three-phase transformer 100MVA, ONAF Three-phase transformer 100MVA, ODWF
Length x Width x Height 7000 x 2700 x 4400 mm Length x Width x Height 4900 x 2350 x 3800 mm
Total / Oil / Transport 145 / 40 / 105 t Total / Oil / Transport 80 / 20 / 65 t
164 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Electrical Equipment
The station service transformer will be also of the cast resin, indoor, dry type tentatively
rated as shown on the single-line diagram. They will feed into the 11 kV and 400V station
service switchgear and cater also the need for emergency power supply to the turbine
generator units.
166 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Powerhouse Electrical Equipment
Communication System
PLC communication equipment has been included in the design arrangement for speech,
signal transmission, and teleprotection functions from the 230 kV power transfer point in
the outdoor switchyard towards the OHTL to MEGA substation as well as to the GD-5
power plant.
This equipment may be completely replaced in case fibre optic technique will be adopted.
A telephone/facsimile exchange for the powerhouse and for the 230kV switchyard is
included in the design arrangement. The exchange will connect to a future public trunk
telephone system in the area, as well as to the PLC system.
The basic Supervisory and Control System (SCS) configurations is shown on Figure 11.5.
Figure 11.5: Control System Block Diagram for GD-3 Hydropower Project
Gateway to GPS Master & Engineering Operator Station/ Operator Station /
Power Line Carrier Clock System Station Alarm Printer Alarm Printer
O.H.L. LINE 1-3 UNIT 1 UNIT 2
Next page
Data Server
Double Ring Bus System: Industrial Ethernet TCP/IP 100 Mbit/s Portable Service
Station
Ethernet TCP/ IP, Protocol acc. IEC 60870-5-104
Next page
LV
Switchgear
UNIT No. 1 Station Control System UNIT No. 2 Power Intake &
Surge Shaft
To previous page I
Data Server 2
To previous page
I
Digital Unit
Bay Unit III Bay OHL III Protection
Coupler Auxiliaries
168 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Switchyard and Transmission System
12.1 General
Switchyard and transmission line equipment are required to safely and reliably feed the
energy generated by the GD-3 hydropower scheme to the proposed new grid node near
the town of Mega. Mega is located some 50km from the border with Kenya on the main
road south from Addis Ababa to Moyale. According to current plans, Mega will become
the first ICS grid node from which electrical energy is to be exported to Kenya. It is
foreseen that transmission lines from at least some of the Gilgel Gibe cascade of
hydropower plants and from all of the Genale cascade of hydropower plants will feed this
node with HVAC energy. At Mega, an AC/DC conversion station will be constructed from
which HVDC transmission lines will transmit energy to Eldorat for sale to consumers in
Kenya. This sale of energy will generate much needed foreign exchange for Ethiopia with
which further electricity generating projects can be financed.
Theoretically, the costs of the interconnection should be shared equitably among all the
projects that will derive benefits from the interconnection, including the Genale cascade of
projects, the Gilgel Gibe cascade of projects and electrification projects in both Ethiopia
and Kenya. However, at the present time, the layout, generating characteristics and costs
of many of these projects are not sufficiently well defined to support a fair cost sharing.
For the present feasibility study of the GD-3 Hydropower Project, the costs of transmitting
its energy over some 295km to Mega have been assigned to the hydropower project. In
this chapter, the principal components of the GD-3 switchyard and the transmission line to
Mega are identified and dimensioned.
The main purpose of the powerhouse switchyard is to transfer the energy generated by
the generating units to the transmission system. The layout of the bus-bars and
connectors must provide redundancy sufficient to guarantee continued operation during
normal and abnormal situations. The switching equipment must be able to isolate
individual generating units or groups of units for maintenance or repair without interrupting
the operation of other units. The switching equipment must also enable supply of the
power station services from the grid.
The GD-3 switchyard will also connect the proposed future hydropower schemes, GD-5
and GD-6, to the ICS via Mega. As such, the GD-3 switchyard will become an important
node in the 230kV transmission grid. Given this importance, a double bus configuration,
laid out in the “classical” arrangement, with a bus coupler to provide reliability and
flexibility under all normal and abnormal conditions.
Two transmission line bays will feed the proposed 295 km long double circuit transmission
line to the Mega substation. Another two transmission line bays are foreseen – one for the
future link to GD-5 and the secons as a spare.
Due to the long length of the transmission lines to Mega, line compensation measures
may become necessary. This should be confirmed by a network study.
12.2 Switchyard
12.2.1 General Design Criteria
The electrical equipment has been selected with due regard to rated current, short-circuit
current level, creepage distances and clearances. The dielectric strength of the installed
electrical equipment is influenced by the prevailing ambient conditions such as moisture
content, altitude, air density and solar radiation. Of particular interest is the altitude, since
the density of air decreases with increasing altitude - this influences the dielectric strength
of the installed equipment. Some 145km of the transmission line will be at elevations
between 1,000m asl and 2,000m asl. The diagram below indicates the de-rating factor to
be applied for electrical equipment if installed at altitudes above 1,000m.a.s.l.
k 1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
m.a.s.l.
170 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Switchyard and Transmission System
Weather proof control cubicles will be installed in the vicinity of each switchyard feeder, to
enable local operation of the circuit breakers, disconnectors and earthing switches.
The auxiliary systems will mainly comprise the following:
! AC and DC power supply from the switchgear building.
! Cabling, earthing and lightning protection systems.
! Outdoor lighting system and small power installations.
However, in this case the line losses will increase considerably and thus reduce the power
transmission capacity.
12.3.2 Towers
The towers will be of the self supported steel lattice type and will carry two circuits. All the
towers will be designed for long basic spans of 350 to 450 m, thus reducing the costs of
steel and insulators considerably.
12.3.3 Conductors
The Aluminium Conductor Steel Reinforced (ACSR) type “Cardinal” has been tentatively
selected having 26mm diameter and a voltage gradient of 16.5 kV / cm.
The technical data of the 230kV transmission single-line with “Cardinal” ACSR conductor
are as follows:
Thermal capacity [MVA] 340
Capacitance to ground [nF/km] 4.8
Charging power [kVA/km] 145
Surge impedance [Ω] 356
Surge impedance load [MVA] 135
A steel earth wire of 70 mm2 cross section will complete the transmission line equipment.
This steel earth wire may optionally be provided with a fibre optic cable.
172 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Construction Schedule and Cost Estimate
13.1 General
The GD-3 Dam and Hydropower Project will require construction of the following main
works:
! Access roads, some 58.3km long from the town of Negele to the dam and power
station sites.
! An RCC dam, some 110m high and incorporating a free overflow stepped spillway and
a downstream stilling basin.
! A headrace waterway, almost 13km long, comprising a power intake, a long 8.1m
diameter unlined TBM driven headrace tunnel, a concrete lined pressure shaft some
200m deep, a steel lined pressure tunnel some 200m long leading into a three
pronged manifold.
! An underground concrete lined headrace surge tank, 23m finished diameter, 120m
high.
! An underground power cavern, an underground transformer cavern, a power cavern
access and cable tunnel and various construction adits.
! A concrete lined tailrace waterway comprising a three pronged tailrace manifold
converging into a tailrace tunnel, over 1.5km long and with a finished diameter of 6.1m
and ending in an outfall structure.
! An underground tailrace surge tank, converted from the low-level inclined construction
adit.
! A 230kV outdoor switchyard.
! Transmission lines, some 295km long, to a proposed DC converter station at the town
of Mega.
This chapter presents the construction time schedule and the cost estimate for the works.
The construction schedule has been developed by identifying for each major works the
construction method and the corresponding medium production capacity. From this and
the construction quantities estimated for each of the works, the net construction durations
have been calculated. The total construction duration of the main activities is calculated in
a next step by assuming an additional unproductive (idle) period of twenty days in a
hundred. In this way account is taken of weekends, paid holidays and public holidays.
Commonly occurring loss of production due to reduced equipment availability is not
included in the production rates and will have to be considered by the Contractor when
defining his equipment.
The cost estimate covers the costs of civil works, hydraulic steel structures and electrical
and mechanical equipment. Civil works costs have been estimated on the basis of
resources needed for the execution of the respective works and on the basis of the
Consultant’s own data from Tenders and Contracts for works of a similar nature in
Ethiopia and abroad.
The prices for the hydraulic steel structures and the mechanical and electrical equipment
have been estimated from the Consultant’s own data and from recent tenders and
contracts for equipment of similar size and capacity.
Individual production capacities have initially been assumed at a medium level and the
critical path has been identified. The production rates of the critical path activities have
then been maximized and their durations shortened to arrive at the shortest total
construction period. In this regard, restrictions and constraints dictated by the site
conditions, for example climate, have been taken into account. The timing, sequencing
and durations of activities not on the critical path have then been adjusted to minimize
resources. These adjustments have been established to meet objectives which include
the following:
! to minimize stockpiling of excavation material,
! to maximize effectiveness and productivity of available plant and labour resources,
! to maximize the effectiveness of management and monitoring resources,
! to improve net cash flow.
174 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Construction Schedule and Cost Estimate
mass concrete placed with a vertical face on the channel side and a 1:1 sloping face on
the construction pit side. This dyke will be incorporated into the main dam and will thus be
placed on sound unweathered rock. The dykes closing the cofferdam “trapezium” will be
of rock and impermeable earth material. The dam foundation footprint within this protected
“trapezium” will be cleared of overburden and a low level reinforced concrete culvert will
be founded through the base of the dam. It is foreseen that sufficient resources are
mobilised to complete construction of the culvert and to raise the dam blocks on the right
bank to an elevation of at least 1060 m asl (some 45m above river bed elevation) before
the end of the first flood season.
During the second low flow season, the rectangular dykes will be removed and two new
cofferdams will be built across the low flow season channel, upstream and downstream of
the left bank dam foundation footprint. These new cofferdams will be of rock and
impermeable earth material. With this arrangement, the river will be diverted into the
culvert built through the base of the right bank dam blocks. The left bank dam foundation
footprint will be drained and excavated and RCC will be placed to raise the left bank dam
blocks up to the level of the right bank blocks during the second low flow season and into
the subsequent high flow season. During this construction phase, the culvert will act as a
throttle to the river flow. Floods will cause the water level upstream of the dam to rise with
the risk of overtopping the protection works and flooding the left bank foundation footprint
area.
Once the left bank dam blocks have been raised to the level of the right bank blocks,
further raising will be made over the entire surface until the dam reaches its final crest
elevation. Then construction of the spillway and crest works will proceed. Spillway
construction will start from the toe deflector, moving upwards towards the crest, casting
the chute sidewalls ahead of the steps. Once the spillway is finished, the diversion intake
is closed by stoplogs and plugged. In order to have sufficient time to properly set the
stoplogs and seal the culvert inlet, this activity will be carried out during the low flow
season. The Genale River will be temporarily dammed some 4 km upstream of the dam
site as it enters the narrow gorge. A low dam of earth and rock some 5 to 7m high will
retain almost 10Mm³ in the huge flat area upstream of the gorge. During the low flow
season, with average river flows of some 30-40 m³/s, this flat area will fill slowly over 2 to
3 days before the temporary dam is overtopped. This time will be sufficient to set the
stoplogs and seal the inlet to the diversion culvert.
It is foreseen that sufficient resources will be mobilised to complete construction of the
dam and spillway works within 30 months.
Stilling Basin
The stilling basin will be constructed during reservoir impoundment after completion of the
dam and stepped spillway. According to the record of historical flow, it will take at least 6
to seven months before the reservoir level reaches the spillway crest. This time will be
more than sufficient to excavate the foundations, pour the floor slab and raise the side
walls of the stilling basin.
It is foreseen that sufficient resources are mobilised to complete construction of the stilling
basin works within 6 months.
be loaded on to trucks and hauled the 2km to the batching plant. The batching plant will
be located on open ground, some 20m above river level, about 600m upstream of the
dam site. From the batching plant, the concrete will be conveyed by belt to the right side
of the dam. This route will not require construction of a bridge for the first stage of dam
construction on the right bank. However, for construction of the second stage of the dam
on the left bank, a river crossing will be required.
Headrace Tunnel
The total length of the headrace tunnel, exceeding 12 km, the prevailing hard rock
conditions along the tunnel route and the tunnel diameter of 8.1m all favour excavation by
Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM). The principal advantages of using a TBM are as follows:
! High advance rates (up to 4 or 5 times higher than the Drill & Blast method)
! A tunnel surface sufficiently smooth to eliminate the need for tunnel lining to reduce
hydraulic friction losses.
! Less disturbance to the surrounding rock mass with the consequential saving in tunnel
support.
The proposed tunnel alignment will have a gradient of about 3‰ descending from the
power intake. The TBM will excavate in an upstream direction from a launch portal near
the headrace surge tank – in this way water seeping into the tunnel will drain out of the
tunnel by gravity.
The TBM launch portal will be accessed by a road suitable to transport heavy TBM parts.
The portal approach cut shall provide a straight platform of 50 m in length in front of the
portal for the assembly of the TBM main beam section followed by another 160 m curved
section for the assembly of the TBM Back Up System (BUS). From the launch portal,
about 70 m of tunnel will be excavated by D&B with a diameter of 8.5 m in order to allow
the assembled TBM to be launched. At the face of this section a TBM starter pipe of about
15 m in length with bottom cradle and circular side walls for gripping will be prepared prior
to launching the TBM. From the starter pipe, the TBM will be launched to excavate about
10,400 m up to a dismantling chamber, some 1,800m from the power intake. Given the
large tunnel diameter, mucking will be by conveyors. The conveyor system will be about
10,400 m in length for the underground section. A further 600 m for the section from the
muck transfer at the portal to the spoil dump should be added giving a total length of 11
km for the conveyor system. The tunnel will be provided with a rail track throughout using
concrete sleeper blocks of suitable height to allow dewatering below the rail top. The
required ventilation will be provided using forced ventilation via suitable fans at the portal
and a 2200 mm diameter high pressure ventilation duct. Supply of the TBM and transport
of personnel will be by trains. It is expected that the TBM will reach the dismantling
chamber within 30 months of launch.
From the dismantling chamber, the TBM it will be removed to the surface through a short
400m access adit. This short adit will be driven from a side valley close to the tunnel route
and used to excavate by full-face D&B, the dismantling chamber, in a downstream
direction, and the short length of headrace tunnel, of some 1,800m, in an upstream
direction to the power intake. In this way, the construction of the power intake and the first
1,800m of headrace tunnel will be separated from the excavation of the long headrace
tunnel.
The access adit will have a diameter of 9 m in order to remove of the TBM. The drive from
the adit portal will ascend very slightly allowing gravity drainage. The adit will meet the
HRT at a chainage of some 1,800m from the power intake. The intersection will be
supported prior to continuing the drive in a downstream direction for circa 100m at which
location an enlargement of about 20 m in length for the later dismantling of the TBM will
be excavated. The D&B excavation will then continue in an upstream direction up to the
breakthrough with the drive coming from the power intake. The adit and HRT excavation
will require dedicated personnel and a full set of equipment.
176 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Construction Schedule and Cost Estimate
Power Intake
The approach to the power intake portal will be excavated by benching down from the
platform area. Once the approach level has been reached, the intake barrel will be
excavated by D&B proceeding to meet the drive coming in the upstream direction from the
access adit. The 60m high stoplog shaft will be excavated by D&B from the top down. The
section of headrace tunnel excavated by D&B and the stoplog shaft will be lined with
reinforced concrete from the downstream end in an upstream direction.
Surge Tank
The surge tank has been located off the alignment of the headrace tunnel in order that it
can be excavated independently of the headrace tunnel and its mucking conveyor system.
The 120m high surge tank will be excavated by D&B from the top down. After excavation,
concrete lining will commence using a climbing shutter of 3 m lift height from the bottom
up with reinforcement installation kept about 2 lifts ahead.
178 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Construction Schedule and Cost Estimate
resources – causing the prices of basic resources to rise. This rise in demand combined
with a rise in underlying costs is pushing construction prices higher at a rate higher than
general inflation. For the present feasibility study, the prices for resources and equipment
prevailing during Q4 of 2006 have formed the basis of the cost estimate.
At the feasibility stage of project planning, the level of structural design is preliminary,
being based on outline knowledge of much of the site physical conditions, in particular the
foundation conditions. In order to account for physical site conditions worse than predicted
which would lead to higher construction quantities and larger equipment dimensions,
contingency amounts are included in the total cost estimate. Contingency amounts have
been added to both civil costs and to equipment costs.
“Wages” are the costs of local labour and are thus sourced locally.
! “Permanent Materials” are the costs of materials that remain in the project (cement,
steel, wire mesh, rock bolts, etc)
! “Job Materials” are the costs of materials that are consumed through construction of
the project (explosives, drill tools, formwork, equipment spare parts, tyres, lubricants
and fuel, etc).
! “Depreciation” covers the decline in value of plant and equipment through general
wear and tear and the financing charges to recover investment cost of plant and
equipment.
A major part of the above resources are available in Ethiopia, but some are sourced from
abroad and are thus assigned a foreign cost. Those resources sourced directly from the
Ethiopian market are assigned local costs. The unit costs of the above basic resources in
Ethiopia have been determined by canvassing local suppliers of construction resources.
Where information was not available, costs have been estimated by comparison with
costs in other countries. All cost estimates are made in US Dollar (US$) for both the
foreign currency component and the local currency component. A conversion rate of 8.82
ETB for 1 US $ (USD) has been adopted. As a result of the estimate for the civil works the
local part is approx. 51 % and the foreign part approx. 49 %.
Wages
Wages are the costs of local labour and include all social charges, incentives, insurances
and other allowances. The wages collected from canvassing local employers are as
follows:
Description Wages Permanent Material Job Material Depreciation
Local Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign
Foreman, 1. Class 1.00 hr 2.13
Foreman, 2. Class 1.00 hr 2.13
Foreman, 3. Class 1.00 hr 2.13
Equ. Operator, 1. Class 1.00 hr 1.06
Equ. Operator, 2. Class 1.00 hr 1.06
Equ. Operator, 3. Class 1.00 hr 1.06
Highly Skilled, 1. Class 1.00 hr 0.71
Highly Skilled, 2. Class 1.00 hr 0.71
Highly Skilled, 3. Class 1.00 hr 0.71
Skilled, 1. Class 1.00 hr 0.71
Skilled, 2. Class 1.00 hr 0.71
Skilled, 3. Class 1.00 hr 0.71
Skilled, 4. Class 1.00 hr 0.71
Semiskilled, 1. Class 1.00 hr 0.57
Semiskilled, 2. Class 1.00 hr 0.57
Semiskilled, 3. Class 1.00 hr 0.57
Unskilled 1.00 hr 0.28
Materials
The costs of materials collected from canvassing local suppliers are as follows:
Description Wages Permanent Material Job Material Depreciation
Local Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign
Cement 1.00 to 150.00
Reinforcement 1.00 to 1,000.00
Cutter Cost 1.00 m³ 1.00
El. Power 1.00 kWh 0.25
Rock Bolts, 4m 1.00 m 4.41
Rock Bolts, 6m 1.00 m 4.41
Drill Bits underground 1.00 no 150.00
Rods underground 1.00 no 200.00
Shanks underground 1.00 no 150.00
Drill Bits openair 1.00 no 200.00
Rods open air 1.00 no 250.00
Shanks open air 1.00 no 150.00
Explosive emulsion 1.00 kg 2.34
Anfo 1.00 kg 0.92
Non-el. Detontators 1.00 no 2.71
Det. Cord 11 gr 1.00 m 0.26
Mortar 1.00 m³ 112.04
180 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Construction Schedule and Cost Estimate
Construction Quantities
For each of the main project civil structures, quantities of construction have been
estimated for the following 11 construction activities:
! Soil excavation.
! Rock excavation.
! Fill placement.
! Underground excavation.
! Shotcreting.
! Rock bolting.
! Grouting.
! Concreting
! Reinforcement.
! Formwork manufacturing.
! Formwork placing.
The above quantities have been measured from drawings of the major project structures.
At the feasibility stage of project development, only the principal structural dimensions are
defined in these drawings. To take account of miscellaneous quantities that cannot be
measured accurately, an allowance of 10% has been added to all the above quantity
estimates.
On smaller construction jobs or on construction jobs involving only a few prime
construction tasks, unit rates (i.e. cost per unit quantity) are estimated for each of the
relevant tasks and applied to the whole job. However, for larger construction projects like
GD-3 where each individual project structure involves very different construction methods
and resources, construction costs are estimated for the measured construction quantity in
each structure. In this way, the estimated costs better reflect the different construction
approaches and field conditions prevailing at each project structure. For GD-3, the
following construction quantities have been measured from the drawings:
182 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Construction Schedule and Cost Estimate
Soil excavation
Reinforcement
Fill placement
Underground
Rock bolting
Shotcreting
Concreting
excavation
excavation
Formwork
Grouting /
Drainage
BOQ Project Component
placing
Rock
m³ m³ m³ m³ m³ m m m³ to m²
B2 River Diversion 0 2,800 16,900 19 150 26,100 1,208 4,285
B3 Dam, Spillway and Stilling 16,500 82,000 551 4,406 2,904 872,37 2,502 9,660
Basin 0
B4 Power Intake 5,260 47,340 9,170 470 3,538 5,140 514 2,820
B5.1 Headrace Tunnel (D & B at 0 1,000 126,600 2,103 13,781 28,040 1,682 39,600
Power Intake end)
B5.2 Headrace Tunnel (TBM 0 1,500 561,100 1,868 13,928 6,400 0 0
driven)
B5.3 Headrace Surge Tank and 1,000 0 69,685 1,034 6,800 10,680 790 8,900
Gate Chamber
B5.4 Headrace Inclined Pressure 0 14,500 8,640 170 1,253 2,270 182 4,150
Shaft
B5.5 Headrace Pressure Tunnel 0 16,840 895 5,910 4,823 55 1,250
In summary, the total quantities for each construction activity are as follows:
Excavation Soil m³ 34,760.00
Excavation Rock m³ 169,900.00
Excavation Underground m³ 953,550.00
Fill m³ 16,900.00
Concrete m³ 985,900.00
Reinforcement to 9,270.24
Formwork Placing m² 110,974.00
Shotcrete m³ 19,197.32
Rockbolting m 100,970.65
Grouting and Drainage m 2.904,00
Subtotal 2.609 0 0 15.213 5.868 0 5.278 17.822 11.145 0,64 0,40 28.967,81 1,03
Contingency 10 % 261 0 0 1.521 587 0 528 1.782 1.115 0,06 0,04 2.896,78 0,10
TOTAL DIRECT COST 2.870 0 0 16.734 6.454 0 5.806 19.605 12.260 0,70 0,44 31.864,59 1,14
Concrete lining in tunnel 28.040 m3 2.870 0 0 16.734 6.454 0 5.806 19.605 12.260 0,70 0,44 31.864,59 1,14
Subtotal 18.541 0 0 155.826 144.252 0 132.442 174.367 276.694 6,22 9,87 451.061 16,09
Contingency 10 % 1.854 0 0 15.583 14.425 0 13.244 17.437 27.669 0,62 0,99 45.106 1,61
TOTAL DIRECT COST 20.395 0 0 171.409 158.677 0 145.686 191.804 304.363 6,84 10,85 496.167 17,69
Concrete lining in tunnel 28.040 m3 20.395 0 0 171.409 158.677 0 145.686 191.804 304.363 6,84 10,85 496.167 17,69
184 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Construction Schedule and Cost Estimate
Labour
Batch Plant
Foreman 280,40 hrs 597 0 0 0 0 0 0 597 0 0,02 0,00 597 0,02
Electrician 280,40 hrs 199 0 0 0 0 0 0 199 0 0,01 0,00 199 0,01
Mechanic 280,40 hrs 199 0 0 0 0 0 0 199 0 0,01 0,00 199 0,01
Plant Crew 1.121,60 hrs 3.822 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.822 0 0,14 0,00 3.822 0,14
Trans port and Placing
Foreman 4.673,33 hrs 9.954 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.954 0 0,36 0,00 9.954 0,36
Mixer Driver 2.804,00 hrs 1.991 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.991 0 0,07 0,00 1.991 0,07
Auto Pump 0,00 hrs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,00 0,00 0 0,00
Tow er Crane 0,00 hrs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,00 0,00 0 0,00
Sta. Pump 2.804,00 hrs 0 0 0 0 601 0 2.003 0 2.604 0,00 0,09 2.604 0,09
Curber 0,00 hrs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,00 0,00 0 0,00
Paver 0,00 hrs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,00 0,00 0 0,00
Concrete Crew 28.040,00 hrs 19.908 0 0 0 0 0 0 19.908 0 0,71 0,00 19.908 0,71
Equipm e nt
Batch Plant, 150 m3 233,67 hrs 0 0 0 3.863 6.000 0 11.429 3.863 17.429 0,14 0,62 21.291 0,76
Transit Mixer, 15 m3 2.336,67 hrs 0 0 0 16.514 20.622 0 25.530 16.514 46.152 0,59 1,65 62.666 2,23
Auto Pump, 15 m3 hrs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,00 0,00 0 0,00
Tow er Crane, 10 m3 hrs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,00 0,00 0 0,00
Sta. Pump, 15 m3 2.336,67 hrs 0 0 0 2.328 19.227 0 19.227 2.328 38.453 0,08 1,37 40.781 1,45
Curber hrs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,00 0,00 0 0,00
Paver hrs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,00 0,00 0 0,00
Subtotal 36.671 1.840.125 0 22.704 46.449 0 58.188 1.899.501 104.637 67,74 3,73 2.004.138 71,47
Contingency 10 % 3.667 184.013 0 2.270 4.645 0 5.819 189.950 10.464 6,77 0,37 200.414 7,15
TOTAL DIRECT COST 40.338 2.024.138 0 24.975 51.094 0 64.006 2.089.451 115.101 74,52 4,10 2.204.551 78,62
GRAND TOTAL 28.040 m3 40.338 2.024.138 0 24.975 51.094 0 64.006 2.089.451 115.101 74,52 4,10 2.204.551 78,62
Concrete lining in tunnel 28.040 m3 63.604 2.024.138 0 213.118 216.226 0 215.498 2.300.859 431.724 82,06 15,40 2.732.583 97,45
Rock Support
Rock Bolts pcs
Steel Arches pcs
Shotcrete m3
Wire Mesh m2
Wire Mesh to
Forepooling pcs
TOTAL 5,53
Equipment
Drill Jumbo no 1 4.509,31 0,062
Loader no 1 4.509,31 0,062
Truck no 6 3.788,93 0,052
Consumables
Drill Rods nos 162,99 0,002
Drill Bits nos 407,48 0,006
Shanks nos 305,61 0,004
Explosives kg 266.981,33 3,664
Detonators nos 79.865,43 1,096
The costs of the individual construction activities are summed to arrive at the total direct
civil construction cost. In the following tables, this total is presented in three forms:
! Broken down by project structure.
! Broken down by construction activity.
! Broken down by basic construction resources.
186 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Construction Schedule and Cost Estimate
Item Description Unit Quantity Wages Permanent Material Job Material Depreciation Total Total
Local Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign
DIRECT COST
River Diversion 3,59% 205.861 1.355.169 1.403.822 723.912 318.912 342.090 2.284.942 2.064.825 4.349.767
Dam and Spillway 28,89% 1.797.076 12.101.235 2.209.156 7.578.134 5.527.295 5.799.446 21.476.446 13.535.897 35.012.343
Stilling Basin 1,82% 79.292 694.917 907.012 206.843 154.089 161.841 981.052 1.222.943 2.203.994
Power Intake 1,80% 106.379 381.639 601.857 479.129 362.085 250.904 967.146 1.214.846 2.181.992
Headrace Tunnel (D & B at Power Intake end) 8,60% 402.855 2.293.987 2.013.856 3.148.100 1.414.013 1.149.396 5.844.942 4.577.265 10.422.207
Headrace Tunnel (TBM driven) 32,13% 375.854 572.932 64.837 15.074.098 6.198.946 16.658.168 16.022.884 22.921.952 38.944.835
Headrace Surge Tank and Gate Chamber 4,72% 230.199 704.146 946.081 1.903.236 982.233 952.047 2.837.580 2.880.361 5.717.942
Headrace Inclined Pressure Shaft 1,06% 82.592 136.309 215.624 378.746 256.546 214.611 597.647 686.782 1.284.428
Headrace Pressure Tunnel 1,10% 48.880 377.822 93.253 431.608 203.400 176.596 858.310 473.249 1.331.559
Headrace Manifold Section (Steel Lined) 0,14% 7.274 40.317 4.236 56.239 30.660 31.175 103.830 66.071 169.901
Tailrace - Tunnel, Surge Tank, Outfall 0,66% 53.651 136.908 142.845 200.723 141.569 121.355 391.282 405.768 797.050
Tailrace Surge Tank 0,58% 29.513 66.122 15.618 327.511 135.736 129.035 423.146 280.388 703.534
Tailrace Tunnel (D & B) 4,40% 230.607 936.245 1.483.844 1.394.102 735.213 557.294 2.560.954 2.776.351 5.337.305
Tailrace Outfall 0,63% 48.316 119.367 243.684 210.330 74.176 63.592 378.013 381.453 759.466
Main Access Tunnel and Associated Powerhouse Adits 1,57% 73.017 305.059 195.206 733.303 323.875 276.162 1.111.379 795.243 1.906.622
Powerhouse and Transformer Caverns 4,36% 194.873 1.419.609 987.323 1.295.394 739.492 646.310 2.909.876 2.373.125 5.283.001
Powerhouse Surface Works 0,12% 4.500 34.500 18.000 40.500 21.000 31.500 79.500 70.500 150.000
Permanent Access Roads and Bridges 3,83% 139.266 1.067.706 557.064 1.253.394 649.908 974.862 2.460.366 2.181.834 4.642.200
SUBTOTAL DIRECT COST 4.110.004 22.743.989 12.103.321 35.435.303 18.269.149 28.536.382 62.289.296 58.908.852 121.198.147
Item Description Unit Quantity Wages Permanent Material Job Material Depreciation Total Total
Local Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign
DIRECT COST
EXCAVATION SOIL 0,11% 34.760 4.402 47.892 41.005 34.798 52.294 75.803 128.096
EXCAVATION ROCK 1,12% 169.900 68.131 582.034 428.335 279.018 650.165 707.353 1.357.518
EXCAVATION UNDERGROUND 44,91% 953.550 1.019.417 24.091.438 9.581.986 19.738.528 25.110.855 29.320.514 54.431.369
FILL 0,15% 16.900 4.288 58.903 53.638 68.535 63.192 122.174 185.365
CONCRETE 33,54% 985.900 1.899.479 18.815.633 7.695.482 6.027.155 6.217.460 28.410.594 12.244.615 40.655.209
REINFORCEMENT 9,60% 9.270 393.290 10.706.434 152.749 154.989 222.446 546.039 11.083.869 11.629.909
FORMWORK INVESTMENT 1,08% 16 218.470 692.350 400.000 910.820 400.000 1.310.820
FORMWORK PLACING 0,40% 110.974 215.932 40.279 104.912 120.656 256.211 225.568 481.779
SHOTCRETE 3,02% 19.197 73.970 2.184.343 469.954 234.448 396.076 300.490 2.492.761 1.166.520 3.659.281
ROCKBOLTING 0,51% 100.971 7.254 199.110 122.452 23.691 131.595 136.199 230.054 390.247 620.301
GROUTING AND DRAINAGE 0,03% 2.904 4.251 2.983 5.957 10.899 10.411 13.191 21.310 34.501
DEWATERING 0,18% 1 6.600 50.600 26.400 59.400 30.800 46.200 116.600 103.400 220.000
INSTRUMENTATION 0,21% 1 7.500 57.500 30.000 67.500 35.000 52.500 132.500 117.500 250.000
CONCRETE WINCHESTER PANNELS 1,19% 26.700 43.254 331.614 173.016 389.286 201.852 302.778 764.154 677.646 1.441.800
POWERHOUSE SURFACE WORKS 0,12% 1 4.500 34.500 18.000 40.500 21.000 31.500 79.500 70.500 150.000
ROADS AND BRIDGES 1 139.266 1.067.706 557.064 1.253.394 649.908 974.862 2.460.366 2.181.834 4.642.200
Item Description Unit Quantity Wages Permanent Material Job Material Depreciation Total Total
Local Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign
OTHER DIRECT COST (not linked with basic cost elements) 23.759.709
B11 Sub-Total Indirect Cost of Civil W orks 20.00 16,990,096 7,281,470 24,271,566
Contractor’s On-Costs
Contractor’ on-costs cover various fees and charges and a margin for his profit and risk.
These costs are charged at a percentage of direct and indirect civil construction costs. For
the present cost estimate, the percentages and amounts are as follows:
Total US $
B11 Sub-Total Indirect Cost of Civil W orks 20.00 16,990,096 7,281,470 24,271,566
188 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Construction Schedule and Cost Estimate
C2 Mechanical Equipment
C2.1 Turbines & governors No. 3.00 900,000 8,100,000 9,000,000
C2.2 Spherical inlet valves No. 3.00 198,500 1,786,500 1,985,000
C2.3 Cooling water system No. 3.00 105,900 953,100 1,059,000
C2.4 Drainage and dewatering system No. 1.00 165,000 1,485,000 1,650,000
C2.5 Powerhouse cranes ls 1.00 110,200 991,800 1,102,000
C2.6 Draft tube flap gates No. 3.00 29,250 263,250 292,500
C2.7 Ventilation and air conditioning systems ls 1.00 30,500 274,500 305,000
C2.8 Compressed air system Item 1.00 28,000 252,000 280,000
C2.9 Diesel generator (850 kVA) No. 1.00 31,700 285,300 317,000
C2.10 Mechanical workshop ls 1.00 21,200 190,800 212,000
C2.11 Oil Treatment & Transfer System ls 1.00 21,200 190,800 212,000
C2.12 Contingencies (7.5%) % 7.50 123,109 1,107,979 1,231,088
C3 Electrical Equipment
C3.1 Synchronous generators No. 3.00 1,175,040 11,468,390 12,643,430
C3.2 Generator bus ducts No. 3.00 82,620 733,666 816,286
C3.3 Main transformers No. 3.00 194,310 1,871,205 2,065,515
C3.4 230kV XLPE Cable Item 1.00 109,395 2,078,505 2,187,900
C3.5 Protection system Item 1.00 57,120 536,357 593,477
C3.6 MV switchgear Item 1.00 51,000 475,830 526,830
C3.7 400V AC system & D/G Item 1.00 58,905 527,789 586,694
C3.8 11kV T/L Item 1.00 28,336 253,000 281,336
C3.9 230V UPS system Item 1.00 5,304 44,819 50,123
C3.10 220V/48V DC system Item 1.00 38,760 348,840 387,600
C3.11 Lighting and small power Item 1.00 5,057 40,303 45,360
C3.12 Grounding system Item 1.00 26,928 220,002 246,930
C3.13 MV, LV power and control cables Item 1.00 106,080 842,275 948,355
C3.14 Control systems Item 1.00 122,400 1,059,984 1,182,384
C3.15 Communications systems Item 1.00 9,690 83,237 92,927
C3.16 Fire detection system Item 1.00 9,690 83,237 92,927
C3.17 Electrical workshop Item 1.00 10,967 160,393 171,360
C3.18 Contingency (7.5%) % 7.50 156,870 1,562,087 1,718,958
13.3.5 Contingencies
Contingencies cover the additional costs arising from increases in construction quantities
and/or equipment dimensions due to unforeseen physical conditions at site. These
unforeseen conditions may be discovered during subsequent investigation phases of the
project development or during actual construction as the foundations are excavated.
Unexpected foundation geology is generally the greatest cause of increased construction
quantities. Weaker than expected geology can result in increased excavation, increased
temporary and permanent support and increased concrete. Unforeseen site conditions
have the greatest impact on civil works, but they can also impact, to a lesser extent, on
the dimensions and costs of equipment. For the present cost estimate, the following levels
of contingency have been adopted:
! 15% of the costs of civil construction works.
! 7.5% of the cost of hydraulic steel structures, mechanical and electrical equipment.
190 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Construction Schedule and Cost Estimate
US $
Local Foreign Total
B CIVIL WORKS 64.8% 91,336,571 92,884,613 184,221,185
C1 HYDRAULIC STEEL STRUCTURES 3.5% 785,178 9,029,551 9,814,730
C2 MECHANICAL EQUIPMENT 6.2% 1,764,559 15,881,029 17,645,588
C3 ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT 8.7% 2,248,472 22,389,919 24,638,391
C4 SWITCHYARDS AND TRANSMISSION SYSTEM 16.8% 4,982,712 42,848,780 47,831,492
years later concurrently with GD-5. The total capacity of 564MW would be sufficient to
serve the entire three plant cascade. The following specific unit costs of a converter
station have been adopted:
Converter Station US$/MW
Transformers, smoothing reactors 43
Converters 36
Filters 16
Earth electrode 14
Other equipment (*) 41
Total 150
(*): buildings, spare parts, cooling system, special tools and vehicles
A 500kV HVDC transmission link, some 520km long, would come into operation
concurrently with the GD-3 project and the first stage converter station. The transmission
line would have two conductors – one operating as a +pole and the second as a neutral
pole. After commissioning the second stage converter station, one conductor would
operated as a +pole and the second as a –pole.
The costs of the transmission link to Kenya have been estimated based on the following
specific unit costs:
500 kV DC Line US$/km
Material cost 125,000
Erection cost 130,000
Transport cost 12,000
Supervision and planning 27,000
Tower estate area and right-of-way cost 6,000
Total 300,000
192 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Economic and Financial Evaluation
14.1 Introduction
This chapter assesses the economic worth of the project and computes electricity tariffs
that would be required to render the project financially attractive to potential investors.
With regard to economics, the report, up to this point, has dealt exclusively with the GD-3
Hydropower Project. However, GD-3 is foreseen as the first stage in a cascade
development. As such, the economic viability of GD-3 should not be judged only on the
costs and benefits of this first stage development, but rather on the costs and benefits of
the entire cascade development. It is well known that the costs of the first stage in a
cascade are relatively high compared to the generated benefits and this is the case for
GD-3. For example, most of the capital investments in the transmission lines for the entire
cascade will be made during the construction of GD-3 and it would obviously be unfair to
assign these investments only to GD-3, since the same transmission lines will also be
used to transmit the energy generated by later developments on the cascade. Also the
huge reservoir, created by GD-3’s dam, will regulate the seasonal flows not only for the
GD-3 power plant but also for any downstream hydropower, irrigation and/or water supply
projects. In the case of GD-3, according to the current master plan, two further
hydropower developments are foreseen downstream, namely GD-5 and GD-6, and an
irrigation scheme – the Lower Genale Irrigation Project.
The technical characteristics, the construction costs and the implementation schedule of
the GD-3 project have been presented earlier in this report. The complementary
information for the GD-5 and GD-6 hydropower projects has been determined from
separate studies. In the case of GD-3, this was the Pre-feasibility study while in the case
of GD-5, this was the Masterplan study. As such the GD-5 and GD-6 projects are less well
defined than GD-3, in terms of technical characteristics and costs. However, for the
purpose of comparison with other power generation projects, some of which are also not
well defined, this approach is acceptable. The combined construction programme for the
GD-3, GD-5 and GD-6 cascade, and thereby the combined investment schedule, has
been arranged in order that the schemes enter operation at intervals of 2 years. This
schedule of sequential implementation will meet the growing demand for electricity in
Kenya and it should offer savings in total construction costs. If construction of major works
is carried out in sequence, then construction equipment can be depreciated over a longer
period resulting in lower unit construction rates.
With regard to financial viability, only the GD-3 project with its associated transmission
lines and converter station has been considered. The financial viability is assessed on the
basis of the tariff required to service debts, to provide a suitable return to equity investors
and to cover operating and maintenance charges over an assumed project lifetime.
The construction costs of all projects in the cascade were estimated using basic costs
prevailing in the year 2006. The high oil prices, seen over the last 3 years, have
contributed to rises in construction and equipment costs. It is not yet obvious if basic costs
have stabilised or if further increases are still to occur.
Table 14.1: GD-3, GD-5 and GD-6 Cascade Development – Principal Characteristics
Parameter GD-3 GD-5 GD-6 Total Unit
Installed capacity 254 107 202 563 MW
Average energy 1,640 723 1,340 3,703 GWh/a
Firm energy 1,600 634 1,252 3,486 GWh/a
Civil construction costs 1) 184.2 M US$
E & M / HSS equipment costs 52.1 183 325 M US$
HVAC transmission costs 47.8 M US$
1,086.4
HVDC transmission costs 198.2 42.4 0.0 M US$
Environmental costs 2) 24.2 included included M US$
Engineering & administration cost 29.5 included included M US$
Operating & maintenance cost 2.9 2.3 3.3 8.5 M US$/a
Construction period 5 5 5 9 2) Years
1. in 2006 prices, excluding taxes and duties. A detailed cost break down, as well as a precise construction
schedule have been presented in Chapter 13.
2. the overall construction period of the cascade will be 9 years as the three stages will be built with a 2 year
delay between each stage.
194 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Economic and Financial Evaluation
For assets, such as mechanical and electrical equipment, whose economic service life
ends within the planning horizon, replacement costs have been included at the
appropriate dates within the planning horizon.
All costs and benefits are expressed in 2006 values – no projection of future prices has
been made. This is justified on the basis that forecasting future prices is a notoriously
uncertain process and taking present prices as being representative also of future prices
at least has the virtue of being based on actual prices which have been applied in
practice. In fact, experience shows that using present prices has often produced more
accurate results than if the World Bank forecasts had been applied. In economic appraisal
all prices are taken free of taxes and duties.
The currency applied in the analysis is US$ and the end 2006 exchange rate of 1.00 US$
to 8.8 ETB has been adopted to convert from local ETB to US$ and vice versa.
Internal prices in Ethiopia are considered to reflect an open market economy and do not
require further correction for distortions created by constraints of supply and demand in
the market
All cash flows of costs and benefits have been discounted at the opportunity cost of
capital of 10 percent. Tests are carried out at discount rates of 8 and 12 percent. These
discount rates cover the rates adopted for the economic assessment of other candidate
hydropower projects in Ethiopia.
rising trend. In April 2006 it reached over US$ 70 per barrel before dropping back to its
current level of around US$ 55 per barrel.
The foregoing clearly demonstrates that accurate long term forecasting of oil prices is
impossible. The recent high prices are a result, firstly, of demand exceeding supply and
secondly, of so-called destabilizing “geo-political” factors. New oil fields are being
exploited and new refinery capacity is being brought on stream to increase supply and this
will tend to lower prices, but demand continues to rise, older fields are drying up and there
appears to be no short term solution to the destabilizing “geo-political” factors. Any
economic downturn, particularly in China and India, will result in a drop in demand and
thereby a drop in price of oil. In other words, strong cases could be built for any oil price
scenario – rising, falling or stable. For the present assessment, a price of US$ 55 per
barrel has been adopted as the reference case price for crude oil. Sensitivity analyses
with prices of US$ 45 per barrel and US$ 75 per barrel will cover a range of price volatility.
The above indicators all support the conclusion that GD-3 and its downstream partner
hydropower projects are very attractive export undertakings. Unit generation costs are a
fraction of those of equivalent thermal plant in Kenya. The analysis includes the costs of
the long transmission lines to Mega, the HVDC convertor station at Mega and the 500kV
DC line on to Eldoret in Kenya. If as proposed, the Gilgel Gibe cascade will also export
196 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Economic and Financial Evaluation
electricity to Kenya via Mega, then the converter and transmission costs will be shared
and the above indicators will become even more attractive.
As a stand-alone generation project (excluding transmission costs to Kenya), GD-3 will
generate electricity at a unit cost of some USc 2.5 per kWh. The unit generation costs of
hydropower projects, currently in Ethiopia’s planning pipeline, are as follows:
A comparison makes GD-3 one of Ethiopia’s most attractive power generation projects.
Table 14.5: Schedule of Costs and Energy Yields for GD Hydropower Cascade
Schedule of Costs and Energy Yields
Oil price (US$/brl) 55
Discount rate 0.1000
9.9063 718 331 471 79,266 75,303 33,981 32,282 60,300 57,285
GD-3 Present Values GD-3+5+6 Present Values Equivalent Thermal Present Values
Total Energy Energy Total Energy Energy CC-1 CC-2 CC-3 Total Year
Investments Produced Received Costs Produced Received Costs Costs Costs Costs
(mUS$) (GWh) (GWh) (mUS$) (GWh) (GWh) (mUS$) (mUS$) (mUS$) (mUS$)
7.8 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2008
7.1 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2009
146.0 0.0 0.0 146.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2010
185.3 0.0 0.0 185.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2011
166.2 0.0 0.0 198.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2012
119.8 0.0 0.0 177.0 0.0 0.0 83.8 0.0 0.0 83.8 2013
42.2 546.1 518.8 148.5 546.1 518.8 109.1 0.0 0.0 109.1 2014
2.7 1,490.9 1,416.4 118.2 1,490.9 1,416.4 91.8 29.2 0.0 121.0 2015
2.4 1,355.4 1,287.6 105.2 1,355.4 1,287.6 83.5 26.5 0.0 110.0 2016
2.2 1,232.2 1,170.5 60.3 1,775.4 1,686.6 75.9 30.6 45.5 152.0 2017
2.0 1,120.1 1,064.1 29.9 1,614.0 1,533.3 69.0 27.8 41.4 138.1 2018
1.8 1,018.3 967.4 5.2 2,299.3 2,184.3 62.7 25.3 46.8 134.8 2019
1.6 925.7 879.5 4.8 2,090.2 1,985.7 57.0 23.0 42.6 122.5 2020
1.0 574.8 546.1 3.0 1,297.9 1,233.0 35.4 14.3 26.4 76.1 2025
0.6 356.9 339.1 1.8 805.9 765.6 22.0 8.9 16.4 47.2 2030
0.4 221.6 210.5 1.1 500.4 475.4 13.6 5.5 10.2 29.3 2035
0.2 137.6 130.7 0.7 310.7 295.2 14.9 3.4 6.3 24.6 2040
0.2 85.4 81.2 0.4 192.9 183.3 5.3 2.1 7.1 14.5 2045
0.1 53.1 50.4 0.3 119.8 113.8 3.3 1.3 2.4 7.0 2050
0.1 32.9 31.3 0.2 74.4 70.7 2.0 0.8 1.5 4.4 2055
0.0 20.5 19.4 0.1 46.2 43.9 1.3 0.5 0.9 2.7 2060
0.0 18.6 17.7 0.1 42.0 39.9 1.1 0.5 0.9 2.5 2061
0.0 16.9 16.1 0.1 38.2 36.3 1.0 0.4 0.8 2.2 2062
0.0 15.4 14.6 0.1 34.7 33.0 0.9 0.4 0.7 2.0 2063
198 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Economic and Financial Evaluation
Table 14.8: Results of Sensitivity Analysis – Decrease in the Price of Crude Oil (1)
GD-3 Cascade
Net Benefits (US$ million) 314 770
Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.4 1.6
Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR %) 14.5 16.1
(1) Price of crude oil reduced to USD 45 per barrel
Table 14.9: Results of Sensitivity Analysis – Increase in the Price of Crude Oil (1)
GD-3 Cascade
Net Benefits (US$ million) 838 1,294
Benefit/Cost Ratio 2.2 2.0
Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR %) 20.6 19.9
(1) Price of crude oil increased to USD 75 per barrel
The results clearly prove that the economic viability of the GD-3 hydropower project and
indeed the Genale-Dawa hydropower cascade remains robustly positive even under the
most adverse conditions.
14.4.2 Methodology
The financial analysis was based on an appraisal of the cash inflows and outflows
pertaining to the project during the construction and operational periods. The assumptions
on which the analysis is based are outlined below.
The approach employed to assess project attractiveness was as follows:
! A return on equity (ROE) of 12.5% was entered into the financial model as the target
return which shareholders should earn on their investment (the return excludes
distribution costs);
! The sales tariff to generate that return was derived by iterative process using EXCEL’s
solver function.
This approach is commonly used where the competitiveness of the tariff is used as a key
indicator of financial feasibility to enable a comparison between projects of different scale
to be made.
14.4.3 Assumptions
The assumptions that form the foundation of the financial analysis are listed below.
Variations to various assumptions, such as the investment costs or energy generation,
were analysed within the scope of sensitivity testing, as is described further in
section 14.4.5 below.
Capital Expenditures
A summary of the initial capital expenditure estimates is given in the Table below. All
costs are presented in US$ million.
Capital expenditures were prepared in 2006 prices and were thus updated using the
following procedure:
! Capital expenditures were adjusted via an escalation factor over 12 months (2006-
2007) to reflect current price levels;
! The estimates were converted to local currency using the 1 year forward exchange
rate.
The following escalation rates were used to update the foreign and local components
respectively:
! US PPI (Electric Power Generation)5 5.8%;
! Ethiopia CPI6 6.0%.
The updated capital expenditure estimates are presented in the Table below.
In addition to the basic project costs presented above, financial contingencies of 5% were
also taken into consideration.
Insurance during the construction period was calculated as 1% of the basic project costs,
i.e. the items listed directly above.
Exchange Rates
The following exchange rates were assumed in the conversion of foreign cost components
to local currency:
5
Source: US Bureau of Labour Statistics (www.data.bls.gov)
6
Source: African Development Bank “Ethiopia 2006-2009 Country Strategy Paper”, June 2006
200 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Economic and Financial Evaluation
The development of the exchange rate was based on purchasing power parity using the
following inflation rates:
! USD CPI7: 2.50% p.a.;
! ETB CPI: 6.00% p.a.;
Capital Structure
On the basis of the experience gained by EEPCo on other investments in the electricity
sector and conditions in the markets, two capital structures, classified as “Scenario 1” and
“Scenario 2”, were assumed.
In Scenario 1, all foreign currency components are financed using a foreign loan
denominated in US Dollars. It was assumed that the local currency components are
financed with equity by EEPCo, with support from the Ethiopian Government. The target
return on equity was set to 12.5%.
In Scenario 2, a debt-to-equity ratio of 4:1 was assumed. It was foreseen that the debt
portion come from two senior loans, one foreign and one local. The target return on equity
was also set to 12.5%.
Both financing scenarios are summarised in the Table below, together with the assumed
terms and conditions relating to the respective debt portion.
Table 14.13: Financing Scenarios
Item Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Debt / Equity 60% 80%
ROE 12.5% 12.5%
FOREIGN Loan Details
Currency USD USD
Term 15 Years 15 Years
Grace 7 Years 7 Years
Base Interest Rate 5.25% 5.25%
Margin 3.0% 3.0%
Commitment Fee 0.25% 0.25%
Up-Front Fee 1.0% 1.0%
Repayment Style Mortgage Style Mortgage Style
Basis for Interest Calculations 360 days 360 days
LOCAL Loan Details
Currency -- ETB
Term -- 15 Years
Grace -- 7 Years
Base Interest Rate -- 10.0%
Margin -- --
Commitment Fee -- 0.25%
Up-Front Fee -- 1.0%
Repayment Style -- Mortgage Style
Basis for Interest Calculations -- 360 days
Use of Funds
For Scenario 1, the foreign loan was accordingly used for foreign currency components as
needed, and the equity for local cost components. This mechanism resulted in debt and
equity being drawn simultaneously though not necessarily in proportion.
For Scenario 2, the draw down was programmed such that the equity was drawn first, debt
thereafter. The foreign and local loans were drawn consecutively, foreign first then local.
The draw down schedule in both scenarios is to be interpreted as indicative only and
subject to optimisation.
7
Source: US Bureau of Labour Statistics (www.bls.gov)
Energy Generation
The annual energy generation for the GD-3 project has been estimated at 1,620 GWh at
sent-out level. Taking transmission line losses of 5% into account, the billed amount of
energy corresponds to 1,539 GWh per annum.
14.4.4 Results
The financial analysis sought to provide a preliminary overview of the financial
attractiveness of the project from the viewpoint of potential investors and/or project
sponsors.
Based on the assumptions outlined above, the results indicate that the GD-3 project
presents a financially feasible project. An overview of the results is presented in the Table
below.
202 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Economic and Financial Evaluation
The internal rate of return for both scenarios is 10.72%, which is greater than the
respective weighted average cost of capital. The debt management ratios indicate that the
derived tariff ensures the project has the ability to meet its debt commitments. The
minimum DSCR for Scenario 2 is below the target value of 1.20x, but this could either be
optimised by using a customised repayment schedule or reducing the debt portion (to
75% or 70%, for example).
The tariffs needed to ensure that the project achieve the desired return on equity of 12.5%
correspond to:
! 43.6 ETB / kWh (5.01 USc / kWh) and
! 44.1 ETB / kWh (5.08 USc / kWh)
for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively.
It should be highlighted that a qualified conclusion regarding the competitiveness of the above
tariffs would need to take into account the business environment in which they are to operate.
In that regard, collaboration and coordination with the utility and regulator during future
steps of project planning is recommended. Furthermore, the financing scenarios should
be reviewed with the aim of identifying potential financiers and assessing the capacity of a
possible participation.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
6.00
5.50
5.00
TARIFF (USc / kWh)
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Investment Costs Annual Energy Generation Base Interest Rate Operation & Maintenance Cost
The Figure shows the variation to the parameter on the x-axis (as a percentage), and the
resulting tariff (to achieve the target return on equity of 12.5%) on the y-axis.
The parameter with the steepest function (irrespective of slope) can thus be interpreted as
having the greatest potential to influence project results. Recall from the Table above that
the tariff for Scenario 1 in the Base Case corresponds to 5.01 USc / kWh.
14.4.6 Conclusions
The financial analysis was facilitated using a spreadsheet based model and implemented
on the basis of a cash flow analysis. The purpose was to provide an indication of the tariff
which would be required to produce a target return on equity of 12.5%. Two possible
capital structures were assumed.
Results show that the project is financially feasible. The internal rate of return exceeds the
weighted average capital costs, and debt management ratios are robust. The sensitivity
analysis proved that the investment costs and energy generation represent key project
parameters.
It should be highlighted that a qualified conclusion regarding the competitiveness of the
tariffs would need to take the business environment in which these are to operate into
account. It is thus recommended that the tariff be discussed in this context with the utility
and responsible authorities. The financing concept should also be reviewed with the aim
of identifying potential financiers and establishing the cost at which the project will be able
to raise capital.
204 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Multipurpose Development
15 Multipurpose Development
15.1 Introduction
The chief role of the GD-3 project is the generation of hydro-electric power. Without
hydropower the project would economically not be feasible. However, if GD-3 were built,
this would trigger other benefits (and costs), thereby making GD-3 a multipurpose
scheme. This section describes the multipurpose aspects of the Genale (GD-3) Project in
terms of:
! water regulation and sedimentation reduction for downstream hydropower projects,
! effects on irrigation,
! changes in salinity patterns,
! fishery on the GD-03 reservoir,
! impacts on the Juba River,
! avoidance of thermal power plant and CO2 emissions,
! improved regional access,
! employment during construction, and
! tourism.
Figure 15.2: Streamflow and Power Production of Projects GD-5 and GD-6, with and without GD-3
Regulation
Streamflow of GD-5 – with and without GD-3 Regulation Power Production of GD-5 – considering GD-3 Regulation
Monthly Discharge (m3/s) Monthly Maximum and Continuous Power (MW)
600 300
Natural Flow
400 200
300 150
Maximum Available Capacity is 103 MW
200 100
0 0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004
Year Year
EVALS 20061208
Streamflow of GD-6 – with and without GD-3 Regulation Power Production of GD-6 – considering GD-3 Regulation
Monthly Discharge (m3/s) Monthly Maximum and Continuous Power (MW)
600 300
Natural Flow
300 150
0 0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004
Year Year
EVALS 20061208
500
400
GD-06
300
GD-05
200
Continuous Power of 388 MW is exceeded 95% of time
100 GD-03
206 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Multipurpose Development
It can be seen that with GD-3 the minimum flows at Dolo are much increased. This is
considered beneficial for people living close to the river.
If GD-3 would not be built, the effect of the Lower Genale on the minimum flows in the dry
season months is considerable, dropping from 76 m³/s (at 25% flow exceedance level) to
52 m³/s. However if GD-3 would be in operation it would rise to 102 m³/s with the irrigation
project, and to even 125 m³/s without it.
The following graphs in Figure 15.4 and Figure 15.5 further illustrate the effect GD-3 on
the streamflow of the Genale for various combinations with the candidate Lower Genale
Irrigation Project.
Figure 15.4: Flow Series of the Genale at Dolo with and without GD-3 Regulation, and with Lower
Genale Irrigation Development Project
Flow Series of the Genale at Dolo Flow Series of the Genale at Dolo with and without GD-3
with and without GD-3 Regulation Regulation – with Lower Genale Irrigation Development Project
Monthly Flows (m3/s) Without Upstream Irrigation Monthly Flows (m3/s) With Upstream Irrigation
1000 1000
400 400
200 200
0 0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year Year
300 300
With Regulation
by GD-03
200 200
With Regulation
by GD-03
100 100
Without Regulation with GD-03
0 0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Figure 15.5: Monthly Flows at Dolo – with and without GD-3 Regulation, with and
without Lower Genale Irrigation Development Project
300
100
With Regulation by GD-03 minus
Lower Genale Irrigation Requirements
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
End of Month
208 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Multipurpose Development
400 200
300 150
Read right
200 100
100 50
Read left
0 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 450
Day from 1 Dec 2004
90
80
70
Before Dam
60
50
With Dam
40
30
20
10
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
80 Before Dam
60
With Dam
40
20
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
210 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Multipurpose Development
Figure 15.56: Reconstituted and Regulated Flows of the Juba River at Baardhere
600
400
200
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004
Year
800
600
400
200
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004
Year
600
400
200
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004
Year
Discharge (m3/s)
1000
800
600
Natural Flow
400
200
Regulated Flow
0
0 25 50 75 100
Percent of Exceedance
The reduction in flood damages for 1990 conditions were estimated as shown in Table 15.18.
The hydraulic bankfull capacity of the Juba is about 800 m³/s. In the absence of daily or
shorter interval values it was estimated that a monthly flow above 400 m³/s would indicate
moderate flood conditions with 20% crop losses, that flows above 500 m³/s would be a
high flood, drowning 40% of the crops, and that monthly flows above 600 m³/s would lead
to severe floods inundating 80% of the crops.
The above table shows that without GD-3 regulation there will be floods damage in
roughly 37% of all years with an average damage of nearly 15 MUS$. In the case of GD-3
there will be flood damages in 23% of all years, with an average damage of 9 MUS$. The
net present value for flood damage, which is a benefit for GD-3, is about 58 US$ (for a
period of 50 years and a 10% discount rate). This value could be somewhat larger as only
crop losses have been considered and not for example the temporary dislocation of
people from flooded lands or stoppage of road transport along the Juba in times of
flooding.
212 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Multipurpose Development
Table 15.18: Flood Damage due to Crop Losses in Juba Valley (1990)
Year Flow exceeding Bankfull Flood Severity Irrigated CropLoss Flood Damage to Crops
w/o GD-3 with GD-3 w/o GD-3 with GD-3 w/o GD-3 with GD-3 w/o GD-3 with GD-3
(m3/s) (m3/s) (MUS$) (MUS$)
1977 449 414 Severe Severe 80% 80% 81 81
1978 92 0 Moderate None 20% 20 0
1981 221 234 Severe Severe 80% 80% 81 81
1987 53 0 Moderate None 20% 20 0
1989 66 44 Moderate Moderate 20% 30% 20 30
1992 122 0 High None 40% 41 0
1995 53 53 Moderate Moderate 20% 20% 20 20
1997 310 62 Severe Moderate 80% 20% 81 20
1998 71 71 Moderate Moderate 20% 20% 20 20
2000 98 0 Moderate None 20% 20 0
2002 114 86 High Moderate 40% 20% 41 20
The Consultant has not considered the Baardhere Multipurpose Project in Somalia. This
project was planned and earmarked for construction at the end of the 80-ies.
The purpose of Baardhere was multi-objective, with most benefits coming from electricity
supply, but also with benefits from irrigation, flood control and lower salinity in the low flow
season.
Under the given circumstances nobody can estimate when such a project would become
attractive to donors again.
What is important, however, is that by regulating the streamflow of the downstream river,
GD-3 would provide irrigation, flood control, reduced salinity and boat transport benefits
which otherwise, in the long term, would have to be supplied by Baardhere.
The value for CO2 is an average of reduction costs in the European countries. The vaue
for SO2 is obtained from the US trading market. The price for NOx was taken from a
confidential study for one of the former East-Block countries.
The NPV over 50 years is about MUS$260 for combined cycle type of plants. If coal plant
is to be taken, the figure would more than double.
214 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Multipurpose Development
be recruited locally, which will result in the creation of the equivalent of 600-900 full-time
jobs on contract for around 4 years.
The creation of regular wage employment in the rural parts of project area is important,
even though it will be on a relatively small scale, at relatively good rates of pay and for a
limited period, since there are currently few other opportunities available.
The presence of the workforce, who is likely to be relatively cash-rich compared with the
majority of the rural population, will undoubtedly encourage individuals to set up stalls to
supply food and other consumables at worksites. Businesses in the local towns will also
benefit financially through supplying goods and services to the workforce when they are
on leave, as well as through the contractors purchasing some of the food requirements of
the base camps.
Although labor recruitment is a matter for the contractor, who has the right to determine
whom they shall and shall not employ, he should be formally encouraged to hire locally
wherever possible, in order to maximize the benefit distribution and social acceptability of
the project. Therefore, the contractor should use his best endeavor to maximize local hire
of labor, in so far as this is compatible with his skill requirements, and to maximize local
procurement of supplies.
15.12 Tourism
The GD-3 project is located close to one of the tourist routes crossing the Genale-Dawa
Basin, from Goba and the Bale Mountains National Park to Negele Borena.
The large artificial lake created by the project will become a major tourist and recreation
attraction in the region. Tourist activities that can be developed include bird watching,
water sports and sport fisheries. Therefore, it is expected that the place will slowly develop
into a tourist and recreation destination, as is the case in other countries.
However access, accommodation, walking paths, boats, restaurants and skillful personnel
is needed to run the place.
Establishing the necessary facilities and services may take a long time and therefore it is
quite unkown what the future benefits can be.
16.1 Background
The implications, with regard to International Water Rights, of developing the water
resources of the Genale-Dawa River Basin were evaluated in general terms during Phase
II of the Masterplan Studies. This evaluation is contained in the Phase 2 Masterplan
Report, Main Report, Report # GDMP-P2D.I-A, May 2006, Part A, Chapter 15. The main
conclusions of that evaluation were as follows:
! The Genale-Dawa River Basin is an international watercourse shared by three
watercourse states, namely Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya. All the rivers in the Basin
originate in Ethiopia and flow to the other watercourse states, mainly Somalia but also
to Kenya where the Dawa River forms the boundary between Ethiopia and Kenya at a
certain section.
! The candidate water resources development projects that have been included in the
Master Plan and may have some impact on the other riparian states, particularly
Somalia, are three hydropower projects on the upper and middle reaches of the
Genale River (i.e. GD-3, GD-6, GD-6 and GD-2) and four large scale irrigation projects
(i.e. Bale Gadula, Welmel, Yadot and Lower Genale) as well as some medium and
small scale irrigation schemes.
! It is difficult, and indeed, premature at this stage to definitively assess the positive and
adverse impacts of these hydropower and irrigation projects on downstream
watercourse states. This is because there also needs to be sufficient information and
data available on existing and planned water resources projects located in the
downstream countries to determine their water resource requirements. The
information would then provide the basis upon which a water resources simulation
model can be used to allocated water among the watercourse states in an equitable
manner.
! In broad terms, it is not difficult to predict the likely positive or negative impacts of the
water resources projects on downstream watercourse states. For example, since the
irrigation projects are consumptive in nature, their development is likely to have
tangible impacts on the flows in the river systems downstream, particularly in Somalia,
by reducing the total amount of water available. The irrigation and hydropower projects
may also affect the quality of water in the Juba River and this will need to be
assessed. On the other hand, the development of hydropower projects are likely to
have a positive impact by way of flood reduction and increased dry season flows. The
hydro-power projects may also minimise the impact of irrigation development on
downstream flows and so may be beneficial to the water regime of the Juba River in
Somalia.
! The issue, however, is determining how much water should be allocated to Ethiopia
and how much to Somalia, based on the general principles and rules of international
water law and the factors that are relevant in the particular context of the Genale-
Dawa River Basin, in accordance with the rights and obligations of the concerned
watercourse states.
! In the absence of an international agreement on water apportionment, as well as the
lack of detailed information of the water requirements of the downstream watercourse
states, particularly Somalia, Ethiopia can initially make efforts to notify relevant
watercourse states of the proposed Master Plan projects and initiate a process of
consultations and negotiations. This would be particularly relevant for projects which
are believed to cause significant positive and negative impacts on the watercourse
states. This may not, however, be possible in the case of Somalia since, as earlier
mentioned, there may be no authority which can be notified of the planned projects.
216 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
International Water Rights
! However, in the light of currently accepted international rules and principles, Ethiopia
still has the right to utilise a reasonable and equitable share of the water of the
Genale-Dawa River Basin. The absence of an international agreement should
therefore not be a barrier to the implementation of water resources development in the
Basin as long as it ensures that its interventions are within its equitable and
reasonable share of the waters of the Basin on the basis of available data and
information.
! One issue that will be considered in this context is whether or not such water
resources projects will have “a significant adverse effect” on downstream interests.
This should normally be looked at by balancing the two substantive principles of
international law and determining the rights and obligations of the respective
watercourse states.
! International water law and the policies of international funding agencies, such as the
World Bank, currently places great emphasis on interstate collaboration and
agreement for the optimum utilisation of international watercourses. Ethiopia’s trans-
boundary water resources policy, and its current experience in the Nile, is also in line
with this. Ethiopia has therefore accepted the need to promote the use of its equitable
and reasonable share of trans-boundary water resources in accordance with
internationally accepted norms. It clearly follows that development of the water
resources of the Genale-Dawa River Basin should also be undertaken in co-operation
and agreement with the downstream watercourse states, namely Somalia and Kenya.
! Eventually, the sharing of the waters of the Genale-Dawa River Basin among the
watercourse states should be the subject of an agreement on the utilisation and
management of the waters of the Basin. This might not be possible in the immediate
term since negotiations and agreements among the watercourse can only be
achievable in the long term. This is also the experience of many international
watercourse agreements that have been concluded in many parts of the world.
However, the lack of watercourse agreements among the watercourse states should
not be a hindrance to the development of international watercourses in one or more of
the watercourse states. This also holds true in the Genale-Dawa River Basin where
there is no agreement on the utilisation and management of the international
watercourse
From the above, it is clear that an initial step towards reaching an interstate agreement on
the use of the water resources of an international river basin is an assessment of the likely
impact of individual projects on the river flows, in terms of both quantity and quality, at the
international borders. With this in mind, the following sections address the impact
specifically of the GD-3 Hydropower Project on the river flows of the Genale River at the
border with Somalia.
500
Inflows to GD-03
400
Outflow of GD-03
300
200
100
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
400
300
Inflows
200
Outflows
100
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Duration (%)
These comparisons show the natural historical monthly flows at the GD-3 site since 1973
plotted against the flows that would have occurred over the same period if the reservoir
and power project had been in operation. The first comparison shows the sequencial time
series with and without the GD-3 project, the second comparison shows the duration
curves of river flow with and without the GD-3 project.
218 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
International Water Rights
It can be seen that the reservoir will greatly reduce the variability of river flows
downstream of the project. Historically, the average monthly river flows varied throughout
the year from some 20m³/s in March to almost 200m³/s in October. After construction of
the reservoir and hydropower plant, the monthly river flows will be largely constant, at
around 85 m³/s, for very long periods, indeed for periods of several years. Only during the
wettest of wet seasons will the reservoir be full and have to spill excess flow in an
unregulated manner to the river downstream. The above comparison is based on mean
monthly flows. Within each month the river flows vary from hour to hour and from day to
day as floods rise and recede – also those hourly and daily variations will be “damped out”
by the reservoir. However, after construction of the reservoir and power scheme, the river
discharges will vary in a regular pattern during each 24 hour period as the power scheme
generates at full, or close to full, power during the daylight hours of peak electricity
demand and runs down during the night hours of low demand.
This regulation of river flows will have the following positive impacts:
! downstream hydropower and /or irrigation projects obtain an almost steady inflow on a
year-round basis
! it provides a considerable level of flood control
! it will allow boat transport to the seaport of Kismayo in Somalia
A possible negative impact of the regulation by the GD-3 reservoir might be that the lack
of a pronounced low flow season will hinder crossing the river during the dry season,
perhaps creating problems for nomads and their animals, as well as for wildlife. Another
possible impact is that the new, largely constant, flow conditions will better suit certain
aquatic species at the expense of others and thereby change the balance of the aquatic
ecosystem downstream of the project.
A further impact of the reservoir is the net loss of water from the reservoir surface. Net
reservoir loss is defined as the difference between evaporation loss from the inundated
reservoir area prior to construction of a dam and evaporation loss from the same
inundated area after construction of a dam. The net losses from the GD-3 reservoir have
been calculated as follows:
Average Net Losses from GD-3 Reservoir (mm)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
241 228 153 -116 -81 76 94 101 90 -39 94 163 1003
This calculation takes account of evaporation from open water, rainfall directly on the
open water surface and the run-off from the reservoir area prior to inundation.
The reservoir surface area varies throughout the year as the reservoir level rises and falls.
From reservoir operation simulations, the average annual net loss from the reservoir
surface area is some 73 million m³, which is equivalent to 2.3 m³/s. This represents less
than 3% of the total flow available at the GD-3 site and is not a significant loss. At the
border with Somalia, where the average river flow is some 209 m³/s, this loss represents
some 1% and is negligible.
Further downstream of the GD-3 project, the regulated flows will be increasingly “diluted”
by the natural run-off from the various tributaries that join the Genale River. These
additions of natural run-off will increase the variability of regulated river flows, while still
retaining the more or less constant regulated flow from GD-3. Between GD-3 and the
border with Somalia at Dolo, these tributaries add unregulated flows which vary between
some 37 m³/s in March to some 214 m³/s in October.
In the same way as shown above for GD-3 site, a comparison at the Ethio-Somali border
(Dolo) of the “before” and “after” situation is shown in the following two graphics:
1000
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Regulation Effect of GD-3 Reservoir on Genale River Flows at the Ethio-Somali Border
3 Duration Curves of "Before" and "After"
Discharge (m /s)
1000
900
800
700
600
Before
500
400
After
300
200
100
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Duration (%)
It can be seen that the GD-3 project reduces the variation of monthly flows at the Ethio-
Somali border – the high monthly flows in the wet season will be reduced, while the low
monthly flows in the dry season will be increased.
With regard to water quantities, probably the most significant impact of GD-3 will be felt
during impoundment of the large reservoir. While this impact will only be temporary
(during the months of impoundment), it will effectively reduce the volume of water
available to downstream users by some 2,600 million m³ during the period of
impoundment. The duration of impoundment will depend on the magnitude of flows
entering the reservoir, but it could last over 6 months and even stretch to 2 years. This
volume of water which would be stored in the reservoir and temporarily removed from
downstream users represents some 41% of the total flow normally available at the Ethio-
Somali border.
With regard to water quality, the large GD-3 reservoir will not change the chemical
composition of the river water; however it may change slightly some of the physical
characteristics. The reservoir will trap large quantities of suspended sediment thereby
220 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
International Water Rights
improving this aspect of water quality for downstream users. However, downstream of the
dam, the river will again pick up sediments so that at the border with Somalia, there may
be little impact in terms of suspended sediment. With regard to oxygen content and
temperature, it is known that both reduce in deep reservoirs with increasing depth from
the surface. The GD-3 power scheme abstracts water from the reservoir at a fixed
elevation, but the water level in the reservoir varies throughout the year. Thus the
abstraction depth varies from a maximum in November when the reservoir water level is
at its highest to a minimum in May when the water level is at its lowest. On average the
abstraction depth varies from some 40m in the wet season to some 30m in the dry
season. Re-aeration and mixing with river flows from the many tributaries will increase
both the oxygen content and temperature downstream. Again, the impact at the border is
likely to be insignificant.
Dams, by their nature, form barriers to the movement of fish. The upper reaches of the
Genale River are populated by migratory fish. Because of the fast flowing nature of the
river water in these steeper upper reaches, the indigenous fish tend to be small and
strong. As such, they are less important as a food source and any reduction in their
population would not have a significant impact on the local population and none at all on
the population of Somalia. Indeed the reduction in flow variability downstream of the
reservoir should improve conditions for the larger, slower moving fish that are key
components of local diet.
16.3 Conclusions
The Genale River, a main watercourse within the Genale-Dawa River Basin, rises in the
southern highlands of Ethiopia and flows south eastwards into Somalia. As such, it is an
international river.
The GD-3 Hydropower project will have certain impacts (both positive and negative) on
downstream water users, including those in Somalia. According to the currently available
knowledge, none of the negative impacts are of such significance as to prevent
implementation of the hydropower project. The reduction in water quantity as a result of
the project will be negligible as will the reduction in water quality.
According to the currently accepted international rules and principles, Ethiopia has the
right to utilise a reasonable and equitable share of the water of the Genale-Dawa River
Basin. The absence of an international agreement is not a barrier to the implementation of
water resources development in the Basin as long as Ethiopia ensures that its
interventions are within its equitable and reasonable share of the waters of the Basin on
the basis of available data and information
Once the GD-3 hydropower project is included in Ethiopia’s development plans, then it is
recommended that the downstream state be informed in order that a final assessment of
its impact on schemes within Somalia can be made.
17.1 Conclusions
The layout of the Genale (GD-3) Hydropower Project has been defined, the main
construction and equipment components have been dimensioned and the overall project
cost has been estimated and compared with alternative electricity generating
opportunities. The layout and design studies have been founded on a range of basic
feasibility studies covering the fields of topography, hydrology, geology, construction
materials and the environment. Based on the results of those studies the scheme is both
technically and economically feasible. An assessment of the impact of the scheme on the
environment is contained in a separate report. Around 730 families will have to be
resettled, but a workable plan for this resettlement, including compensation measures,
has been devised. No known endangered plant or animal species will be adversely
affected by the project. The impact assessment judged the scheme to be environmentally
acceptable. An assessment of the international legal issues has concluded that there are
no legal impediments to developing the scheme.
Construction of the scheme will provide employment and career opportunities for over
1,500 local people. New roads to the project area will greatly improve transport links to the
town of Negele and beyond. This in turn will stimulate local trade.
The GD-3 Hydropower Project will be the first development in a cascade of schemes on
the main Genale River. Two further hydropower schemes – known as GD-5 and GD-6 –
and an irrigation scheme – the Lower Genale Irrigation Project - are foreseen downstream
on the same Genale River. The huge GD-3 reservoir will regulate the seasonal flows of
the Genale River and the attractiveness of the three downstream schemes owes much to
the considerable regulation capacity provided by GD-3. As such, the downstream
schemes should not be commissioned before GD-3.
The total cost of the GD-3 scheme is estimated at US$ 536 million. This total includes the
costs of all construction works, equipment, engineering and administration services and
environmental mitigation and compensation measures. Of the total, some US$ 246 million
(or 46%) will be for the transmission of the energy over some 815 km by HVAC and DC
links to Eldoret in Kenya via the town of Mega in Ethiopia. The remaining US$ 290 million
(54%) will cover the cost of the generation scheme (the dam and underground power
scheme).
The direct benefits of the project will be 254 MW of electrical power and 1,640 GWh of
energy per year. The electrical power will be available at any time of the day or night to
cover both peak and off-peak demand in the Kenyan interconnected power system. From
the above costs and installed capacity, the so-called specific unit cost of the GD-3
scheme, based on the generation component (excluding the transmission component), is
some US$ 1,140 per kW installed – indicative of a very attractive hydropower generation
scheme.
An analysis comparing the total costs of the hydropower schemes (including the long
transmission link to Kenya) with the costs of constructing and fueling the least cost
equivalent thermal alternative in Kenya indicated cost-benefit ratios at a discount rate of
10% in favour of the hydropower schemes of 1.7 and 1.8 for the single stage GD-3 and
multi-stage cascade respectively. The respective Economic Internal Rates of Return of
are 16.7% and 17.4%. These indices are indicative of very attractive power projects.
In financial terms, the single stage scheme, including the transmission link to Kenya, could
provide its investors a 12.5% Return on Equity by selling energy at a tariff of some USc
5.1 per kWh. This tariff is judged reasonable by comparative standards.
The technical and environmental characteristics of the GD-3 scheme are summarized in
Table 17.1. The main components of the scheme are:
222 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Conclusions and Recommendations
! Access roads, some 58.3km long from the town of Negele to the dam and power
station sites.
! An RCC dam, some 110m high and incorporating a free overflow stepped spillway and
a downstream stilling basin.
! A headrace waterway, almost 13km long, comprising a power intake, a long 8.1m
diameter unlined TBM driven headrace tunnel, a concrete lined pressure shaft some
200m deep, a steel lined pressure tunnel some 200m long leading into a three
pronged manifold.
! An underground concrete lined headrace surge tank, 23m finished diameter, 120m high.
! An underground power cavern, an underground transformer cavern, a power cavern
access and cable tunnel and various construction adits.
! A concrete lined tailrace waterway comprising a three pronged tailrace manifold
converging into a tailrace tunnel, over 1.5km long and with a finished diameter of 6.1m
and ending in an outfall structure.
! An underground tailrace surge tank, converted from the low-level inclined construction
adit.
! A 230kV outdoor switchyard.
! Transmission lines, some 295km long, to a proposed DC converter station at the town
of Mega. From Mega, a HVDC link will transmit the energy a distance of some 520km
to the town of Eldoret in Kenya.
The hydropower scheme exploits a renewable energy source. It will not deplete Ethiopia's
reserves of natural resources, it will not produce harmful gases and it will not increase the
nation's dependence on imported fossil fuels. The power and energy generated will be
available for industrial, commercial and domestic consumption thereby greatly improving
both social and economic conditions in the country.
17.2 Recommendations
Such a worthwhile project should be implemented as soon as possible. In the following, a
number of technical recommendations are made to move the project towards
implementation. These recommendations are essentially aimed at expanding the project
data base to provide a much more reliable basis for detailed design. The
recommendations to expand the data base focus on the fields of topographic surveying,
hydrology and geology.
Crucial for a quick delopment of the scheme is that the Ethiopian authorities should decide
whether it will be developed as a public sector or a government project soon,
Subsequently the next phase of the GD-3 development can start, including the detailed
design and the formulation of institutional measures to ensure a smooth implementation of
the scheme.
17.2.2 Hydrology
The operation of all the river gauging stations on the Genale River and on its tributaries
should be continued. These gauging stations should be of the automatic type in order to
record flood flows. The river reaches upstream and downstream of the stations should be
surveyed, at least, at 6 month intervals (before and after the wet season). River gaugings
should be carried out at regular intervals, indeed intensified, especially during the wet
season in order to continuously assess the rating (or stage-discharge) curves.
At least ten automatic rain gauges should be installed in the GD-3 catchment. These
raingauges should be distributed such that 7 are located in the upper catchment where
greatest precipitation falls
Efforts to correlate storm rainfall with river flood peaks should be intensified and
suspended sediment sampling should be introduced at all river gauging stations. In this
regard, the resources of national universities should be exploited. Projects should be
defined and allocated to universities to be carried out by engineering students under the
guidance and direction of academics. Under this arrangement, students work on real
projects, academics develop new lines of research and the nation improves its database
on which water resources projects are planned and designed – a truly “win-win”
arrangement.
17.2.3 Geology
In general drilling and/or geophysical surveys of the foundations of all the major structures
should be completed prior to tendering. In particular the following investigations should be
carried out for future planning or design studies:
! Detailed geological mapping (including joint survey) of the dam, tunnel, surge shaft,
penstock and new power house position. This will require large scale aerial
photography and photogrammetric mapping to provide suitable scale of topographic
maps and aerial photos for photo-geological mapping. This is especially important to
locate a suitable quarry with fine grained granite and to define the extent of basement
schists intruded by the pegmatoidal granites.
! Drilling of the dam site, diversion culvert and stilling basin. Borehole positions should
be based on detailed geological mapping at the positions of major joints not yet
investigated that could represent possible leakage paths below the dam.
! Drilling of the power intake, headrace tunnel, powerhouse access tunnel portal,
tailrace outlet portal and the underground power house.
! Drilling of quarry areas to access overburden depths and rock mass quality and to
obtain samples of rock core for laboratory testing. This should be followed by surface
test blasts for bulk samples of rock for aggregate and rock fill testing. The main quarry
should be in proximity to the existing one near the dam but a second smaller quarry
may be required for the power house area.
! Specialised in-situ and laboratory testing of the granites and schists to assess
accurate values of Unconfined Compressive Strength, Modulus of Deformation and
Poisson’s Ratio.
! Specialised testing of the concrete aggregates, cement and pozzolanic material as
well as tests on concrete to be used during construction.
224 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan
Conclusions and Recommendations
18 References
1. USACE, EM 1110-2-2200, “Gravity Dam Design”.
2. USACE, EM 1110-2-2006, “Roller-Compacted Concrete”.
3. USBR, “Design of Gravity Dams (Design manual for concrete gravity dams)”, United
States Government Printing Office, 1976.
4. ICOLD, “State-of-the-Art of Roller-Compacted Concrete Dams”, 2003.
5. Norplan A.S in association with Norconsult International A.S., “Genale Hydropower
Projects, Pre-feasibility Study”, Main Report, Vol. II, April 1999.
6. Lahmeyer International GmbH in association with Yeshi-Ber Consult, “Genale-Dawa
River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan Study, Sector Report G.
Hydropower”, Addis Ababa, Ministry of Water Resources, September 2005.
7. Lahmeyer International GmbH in association with Yeshi-Ber Consult, “Genale-Dawa
River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan Study, Master Plan,
Main Report”, Addis Ababa, Ministry of Water Resources, December 2006.
8. Lahmeyer International GmbH in association with Yeshi-Ber Consult, “Genale-Dawa
River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan Study, Pre-feasibility
Study of GD-6 Hydropower Project”, Addis Ababa, Ministry of Water Resources,
November 2006.
226 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ▪ Ministry of Water Resources ▪ Genale-Dawa River Basin Integrated Resources Development Master Plan