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24.2 169 its status as the second largest air conditioner player in China - the air
19.2
149
129
conditioner industry saw c.33% y-o-y sales rebound in Oct and Nov
14.2
109
2016 according to China Market Monitor. Recall that Media’s 9M16
revenue increased by 4% and core net profit rose by 30% to RMB
9.2 89
Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16
Midea Group Company Limited (LHS)
Relative CSI300 Index (RHS)
12.2bn on better GP margin and efficiencies. We expect FY16 results to
Forecasts and Valuation stay largely in range, as raw material price pressure had been mitigated
FY Dec (RMB m) 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F by average price hike. As for 2017, we believe that Midea would focus
Turnover 138,441 148,087 184,388 196,840
on the integration and turnaround of Toshiba unit, as well as
EBITDA 15,473 18,906 21,861 23,293
Pre-tax Profit 16,051 19,658 22,505 25,004 strategizing plans with KUKA AG.
Net Profit 12,707 15,562 17,816 19,794
Valuation:
Core profit 10,911 14,152 17,816 19,794
Core Profit Gth (%) 15.1 29.7 25.9 11.1 Our new TP of RMB 35.35 is benchmarked to FY17 PE of
EPS (RMB) 1.99 2.43 2.78 3.09 12.7x (previously based on 12-month rolling PE of 12.5x), equivalent to
Core EPS (RMB) 1.70 2.21 2.78 3.09 2 standard deviation above average, to reflect the consolidation of
EPS Gth (%) 21.0 22.5 14.5 11.1 KUKA AG's robot business and its expansionary prospects in China. We
Core EPS Gth (%) 15.1 29.7 25.9 11.1 anticipate potential re-rating of the counter on further development of
Diluted EPS (RMB) 1.70 2.21 2.78 3.09
DPS (RMB) 1.20 0.97 1.11 1.24
KUKA's expansion in medium-term. Maintain BUY.
BV Per Share (RMB) 7.69 11.09 13.12 18.77 Key Risks to Our View:
PE (X) 14.7 12.0 10.5 9.4
Slower-than-expected recovery in home appliance demand; fluctuation
Core PE (X) 17.1 13.2 10.5 9.4
P/Cash Flow (X) 7.0 8.7 6.2 9.6 of raw material prices, and unsuccessful M&A integration
P/Free CF (X) 7.7 10.0 6.9 11.7 At A Glance
EV/EBITDA (X) 9.5 8.0 7.9 7.1
Issued Capital (m shrs) 6,425
Net Div Yield (%) 4.1 3.3 3.8 4.2
P/Book Value (X) 3.8 2.6 2.2 1.6 Mkt. Cap (RMBm/US$m) 187,737 / 27,278
Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH Major Shareholders
ROAE (%) 28.7 25.9 23.0 19.4 Midea Holding (%) 34.9
Earnings Rev (%): (0) 4 4 Free Float (%) 65.1
Consensus EPS (RMB) 2.30 2.63 2.96 3m Avg. Daily Val. (US$m) 130.0
Other Broker Recs: B: 18 S: 0 H: 1
ICB Industry : Consumer Goods / Household Goods
Source of all data on this page: Company, DBSV, Thomson Reuters, HKEX
WHAT’S NEW
ACQUISITION OF KUKA AG
Expansion in China. With strong position in the European
Transaction completed on 6 Jan 2017. Midea announced on
market, KUKA AG will focus expansion in high-growth regions
30 Dec 2016 that it received the final approvals from CFIUS
of Asia. The group targets to derive c.30% of group revenue
(The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States)
from Asia in medium term. Its primary focus is the Chinese
and DDTC (Directorate of Defense Trade Controls) for its
market, which currently contributes c.15% of group revenue.
acquisition of KUKA AG, and swiftly had the transaction
KUKA AG’s headquarter for Asian business is in Shanghai,
completed on 6 Jan 2017.
where a hub bundling various functions was established in 2016.
Its robot assembly plant was opened in Greater Shanghai area
To recap, Midea has garnered 94.55% of KUKA's AG since
back in 2013, with its workforce rising from 696 employees in
the announcement of takeover offer on 19 May 2016. With
2014 to over 1,000 in 2015, and production already meeting a
an offer price of EUR 115 per share to acquire 81.04% shares
large proportion of local demand by 2015. There are also plans
(as Midea already owned 13.51% of KUKA AG prior the
for new factory, potentially in the Yangtze River Delta Region.
takeover offer), the price tag works out to be c. EUR3.7bn (or
RMB 27.1bn) for shareholdings of 81.04%. This values the
We believe that KUKA AG's expansion in China could be
transaction at c.33x FY17 PE, which is fairly in-line with the
accelerated under Midea Group's umbrella. Midea can leverage
c.39x average FY17 PE of A-share robots & automation sector.
its status as the industry leader to promote automation along
the value chain e.g. upstream and downstream partners. The
The deal is earnings accretive. We expect the consolidation of
group itself is a key customer of KUKA AG, spending c. RMB 1-
KUKA AG to expand Midea's revenue and earnings base by
1.5 bn each year on automation. It is understood that there
c.15% and c.6% in FY17 initially. KUKA AG is forecasted to
would be further room for higher automation, as currently the
generate c. EUR 3.2bn/ RMB 23.4bn revenue and c. EUR
robots are being used for standardized procedures e.g.
136.1m/ RMB 996.5m net profit in FY17 as per Bloomberg
packaging, transportation, and paint spraying on products like
consensus. Recall that the deal consideration will be fully paid
air conditioners. Other high-skilled procedures such as welding
in cash, satisfied by a bridging loan offered by ICBC Bank
and inspection are still handled by manpower.
0.65% p.a. As a result, c. EUR 26m/ RMB 193m interest cost
will incur in FY17. Besides, a one-off transaction cost of EUR
Although KUKA AG's revenue contribution to Midea Group is
35m /RMB 256m will also be booked in FY17. On a net basis,
still relatively small, at c.13% currently, the high-growth
earnings accretion will then be reduced to c.3%. We
potential of robots and automation business could see KUKA
understand that management plans to gradually pay off the
AG emerging into a new earnings pillar of Midea in the
loan with its strong war chest of c. RMB 70bn monetary
medium-term.
assets.
Vast potential in China - 3 structural reasons. China is
Revenue breakdown of Midea - 2017E
identified as the key growth market for robot automation,
potentially due to three structural reasons: (1) rising labour
Motor +
Logistics wage in the manufacturing sector, (2) low automation in most
KUKA
3% Chinese factories now, as well as (3) aging population.
13%
Non-core
operations
5%
Air
conditioner Refrigerator
34% 7%
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2010 2050E
Source: CEIC, DBS Vickers Source: KPMG, China 360, DVS Vickers
The average wage of manufacturing workers in China's state- According to KPMG, the working population in China,
owned unit has risen at CAGR of c.14% in the past 10 years. predominantly defined by age class of 15-60, is projected to
shrink by 15ppt from 70% of total population in 2010 to 50%
Robot density in 2050. This could pose as a difficult challenge for productivity
if more automation is not introduced.
Robots per 10,000 employees
1,600 1,414 Robotic development in China. Riding on the structural drivers
1,400 as mentioned above, China is picking up fast in the adoption of
1,149 1,141
1,200 industrial robots from a very low base.
1,000
734 Sales Volume of China Industrial Robots
800
600
400 305 unit
211 161
200 89 106 58 1
31 17 4 80,000 200%
0 70,000
Germany
Japan
USA
Brazil
UK
India
China
150%
60,000
50,000 100%
40,000
Automotive General industry
30,000 50%
20,000
Source: IFR World Robotics 2014 (published Sept 2015), DBS Vickers 0%
10,000
The robot density within factories in China, measured by robots 0 -50%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Oct-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Jan & Feb
2. Systems division: Core competence of Systems division lies 4. Metal industry: KUKA has vast experience in the
in the customized solutions for the automation of metalworking industry. Examples are arc welding and laser
manufacturing processes. welding.
3. Swisslog unit: Swisslog was a Swiss company acquired by 5. Energy: KUKA Industries offers solutions for different tasks
KUKA AG in 2014. Its Healthcare Solutions unit provides in the production of photovoltaic modules, from brick sawing,
automated solutions for hospitals, while the Warehouse & cell handling and cross-soldering to the framing and
Distribution Solutions unit helps warehouse and distribution packaging of modules.
centers to achieve maximum throughput at minimum costs.
6. Healthcare: Automation solutions provide better efficiency
The key application industry has been automotive sector, in hospitals, improve work procedures and reduce workload
which accounts for c.50% of KUKA AG’s revenue. German on nursing staff, enabling them to concentrate more on
premium car brands such as Audi, BMW and Mercedez Benz patients in the future.
are all key customers of KUKA AG. Correspondingly, Europe
is the largest market, from which c.50% of revenue is 7. E-commerce: Large volume of e-commerce fulfillment has
generated. created huge market for rack feeders, high-bay warehouses
and storage systems, such as those supplied by Swisslog.
Sales split of KUKA AG - 2015
Sales split of KUKA AG - 2015
Swisslog
19%
Systems
50% General
Automotive
Industal
Robotics ~50%
~50%
31%
€mn %
160 80
140 70
120 60
50
100
40
80
30
60
20
40 10
20 0
0 -10
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Midea Group* 000333 CH CNY 29.22 35.35 BUY 27,278 Dec 10.5 1.0 3.8 2.2 23.0 9.4 1.0 4.2 1.6 19.4
GREE Electrical 000651 CH CNY 25.37 n.a. NR 22,176 Dec 9.4 1.3 6.4 2.5 26.7 8.5 1.2 7.1 2.2 25.8
Hisense Elec. 600060 CH CNY 17.13 n.a. NR 3,257 Dec 11.2 0.7 2.6 1.5 14.0 10.2 0.7 2.8 1.3 13.8
Konka Group 000016 CH CNY 4.38 n.a. NR 1,532 Dec n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Qingdao Haier* 600690 CH CNY 9.96 13.42 BUY 8,824 Dec 10.6 0.4 2.8 1.8 16.9 8.9 0.4 3.4 1.5 18.2
Wuxi Little Swan 000418 CH CNY 33.4 n.a. NR 3,069 Dec 14.1 1.1 1.5 2.9 21.2 11.5 0.9 1.5 2.4 21.7
Hisense Kelon 000921 CH CNY 10.72 n.a. NR 2,123 Dec 9.9 0.5 3.5 2.6 27.1 9.9 0.1 4.2 2.2 21.0
Sichuan Changhong 'A' 600839 CH CNY 4.3 n.a. NR 2,884 Dec 25.7 0.3 0.3 1.3 4.9 19.5 n.a. 0.0 1.1 5.5
TCL Corp 000100 CH CNY 3.5 n.a. NR 6,211 Dec 13.6 0.3 1.7 1.5 12.4 11.4 0.2 2.0 1.3 12.3
Hangzhou Robam 'A' 002508 CH CNY 38.13 n.a. NR 4,045 Dec 18.5 3.9 1.8 5.3 32.0 14.5 1.0 2.6 4.3 31.9
J oy oung 'A' 002242 CH CNY 17.8 n.a. NR 1,985 Dec 17.4 1.6 3.6 3.6 21.3 15.5 0.2 4.2 3.4 21.9
Huizhou China Eagle 'A' 002579 CH CNY 13.68 n.a. NR 735 Dec n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a.
V atti 'A' 002035 CH CNY 25.75 n.a. NR 1,361 Dec 22.1 1.7 1.8 4.5 20.0 17.5 0.4 n.a. 3.7 21.7
ZJ Meida Industrial 'A' 002677 CH CNY 11.87 n.a. NR 1,114 Dec 27.2 8.8 1.9 5.5 20.6 21.0 3.7 2.4 4.8 23.4
GD Xinbao Elect. 'A' 002705 CH CNY 16.22 n.a. NR 1,354 Dec 17.6 1.2 1.6 2.9 17.7 14.2 0.1 1.4 2.5 18.6
ZJ Aishida Elec. 'A' 002403 CH CNY 13.4 n.a. NR 682 Dec 24.3 1.6 0.6 2.2 9.4 20.6 0.7 n.a. 2.0 10.0
SH F ly co Elect. Appc.'A' 603868 CH CNY 46.62 n.a. NR 2,951 Dec 25.9 4.9 1.5 7.8 32.2 21.2 18.3 2.1 6.5 32.4
Zhejiang Supor 'A' 002032 CH CNY 35.3 n.a. NR 3,240 Dec 17.6 1.7 2.0 3.7 21.5 15.2 2.5 2.4 3.1 20.9
ZJ Haers V acuum Ctrs.'A' 002615 CH CNY 16.84 n.a. NR 669 Dec 26.3 2.7 4.1 5.3 20.8 20.7 1.4 8.3 4.8 25.3
Kingclean Elec.'A' 603355 CH CNY 43.98 n.a. NR 2,563 Dec 26.5 3.9 0.8 4.9 19.4 21.6 3.5 n.a. 4.1 19.2
A sh are st o c k s av erag e 18.3 2.1 2.3 3 . 4 2 0 .1 15.1 2.0 3.2 2 . 9 2 0 .2
G lo b al Peers
Philips Eltn.Koninklijke PHIA NA EUR 28.09 n.a. NR 27,844 Dec 15.7 1.0 2.9 2.0 13.0 14.2 2.9 3.0 1.9 13.4
De Longhi DLG IM EUR 22.74 n.a. NR 3,625 Dec 19.2 1.7 2.4 3.1 16.9 17.2 0.4 2.7 2.8 17.2
Electrolux 'B' ELUXB SS SEK 232.6 n.a. NR 7,978 Dec 13.8 0.6 3.2 3.4 26.5 12.7 n.a. 3.3 2.9 25.0
G lo b al Peers av erag e 16.2 1.1 2.8 2 . 8 1 8 .8 14.7 1.7 3.0 2 . 5 1 8 .5
^ Core EPS
Mkt 1 7F 18 F
Cu rrenc y Pric e Cap F isc al PE P/Sales Y ield P/B k RO E PE P/ Sales Y ield P/ Bk ROE
Comp an y Name Co de L o c al$ US$ m Yr x x % x % x x % x %
Chin a
Siasun Robot & Atmtn.'A' 300024 CH CNY 20.24 4,588 Dec 54.7 12.4 0.3 5.3 11.2 43.6 9.7 0.4 4.6 11.0
Csg Smrt.Sctc.'A' 300222 CH CNY 19.66 2,015 Dec 45.2 7.5 1.0 n.a. 16.2 35.7 6.0 n.a. n.a. 15.6
Dalian Zhiy un Atmtn.'A' 300097 CH CNY 53.24 1,156 Dec 34.2 6.3 1.2 5.1 12.5 30.4 6.0 n.a. 4.4 14.4
Nanjing Estun Atmtn.'A' 002747 CH CNY 30.35 1,216 Dec 86.5 10.0 0.3 6.8 9.3 61.8 7.7 0.4 6.7 12.4
Mesnac 'A' 002073 CH CNY 10.44 1,424 Dec 52.2 3.5 n.a. 2.0 3.8 25.5 2.7 n.a. 1.8 7.3
Harbin Boshi Atmtn.'A' 002698 CH CNY 14.7 1,456 Dec 41.2 11.1 0.6 4.0 10.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
A v erage 52 .3 8. 5 0 .7 4 .6 1 0. 6 3 9. 4 6. 4 0. 4 4. 4 12 .1
appliance industry had staged recovery since 2H16 following 141,668 148,087
150000 138,441
the subsiding of inventory issues. Stronger rebound trajectory
was seen in 4Q16 - seeing sales of 100000
15
Supportive margins. Aside from the general consumption
10
upgrade angle, Midea's overseas business (which makes up
c.35% of group revenue in 2016) is poised to contribute 5
hikes. 10
of KUKA AG’s revenue (or >6% of FY17 group revenue) are 15,000
derived from Europe (Euro denominated). Foreign exposure, 10,000
especially in terms of USD, could be bliss amidst weakening 5,000
RMB, although it is important to watch out for a turn, if any, 0
given the significant proportion of such exposure. 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
Cash (RMBm)
70000
62,543
60000 58,127
50,959
50000 48,436
40000
32,334
30000
20000
10000
0
2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
liabilities) stood at c.RMB70.9 bn. The group’s own fund is still 0.15 1.0
Capital Expenditure
Share Price Drivers: RMBm
Turnaround of Toshiba home appliance unit. Midea completed 4,000.0
we believe that Midea would be able to integrate the target unit 500.0
0.0
well and extract synergies, given their more-than-20 years of 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
partnership, and eventually turn the target unit around, by Capital Expenditure (-)
20.0%
15.0%
Key Risks:
Slower-than-expected recovery in home appliance demand; 10.0%
expansion. Poor integration post M&A could also weigh on the 13.7
12.7
company's own efficiency. +2sd: 12.6x
11.7
10.7
+1sd: 11.1x
manufacturing and distributing air conditioners, refrigerators, Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16
(382.HK) (an upstream manufacturer that supplies compressors 2.6 Avg: 2.64x
‐2sd: 1.81x
1.6
Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16
Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
Sales (RMBm) 141,668.2 138,441.2 148,087.0 184,388.4 196,840.2
Gross Margin (%) 25.4 25.8 27.7 27.5 27.9
EBITDA margin (%) 11.2 11.2 12.8 11.9 11.8
Operating Cash Flows
24,789.5 26,764.3 21,551.5 30,116.1 19,573.2
(RMBm)
Cash (RMBm) 32,334.1 50,959.2 48,436.4 58,126.6 62,542.8
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) N/A N/A 6.7 (13.1) (6.0)
Opg Profit Gth (%) N/A N/A 11.9 (22.1) 9.5
Net Profit Gth (%) N/A N/A 25.9 12.6 14.1
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 25.8 24.9 27.4 23.5 29.2
Opg Profit Margins (%) 10.6 6.8 11.1 6.1 13.0
Net Profit Margins (%) 8.5 6.1 10.1 7.8 12.3
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
12- mt h
RMB
S.No. Dat e Closing T arget Rat ing
35.0 Pric e Pric e
1 23 4 5 6
30.0 1: 11-Mar-16 RMB29.00 RMB38.02 Buy
2: 29-Mar-16 RMB29.99 RMB35.97 Buy
25.0
3: 31-Mar-16 RMB30.53 RMB35.97 Buy
20.0 4: 5-Sep-16 RMB27.12 RMB32.10 Buy
5: 1-Nov -16 RMB27.15 RMB33.03 Buy
15.0
6: 21-Nov -16 RMB27.13 RMB33.03 Buy
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jun-16
Nov-16
Apr-16
Aug-16
DBSVHK recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
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