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HSIE Results Daily
projects of INR 33bn (international jewellery park in Mumbai and Guwahati
sports complex). AHLU is effectively debt-free, with a negligible gross debt
of INR 420/319mn and total cash and cash equivalents of over INR 5.8/5.2bn,
as of Dec/Sep’23 end. For FY25, order inflow is expected at INR 50bn, given it
will be a truncated award year owing to elections. Given the recent rally in
the stock price and a limited upside to our target price, we maintain our ADD
rating on the stock. We have recalibrated our estimates higher to factor in
better-than-expected revenue growth and we have increased our TP to INR
990 (15x Mar-26E EPS).
Page | 2
HSIE Results Daily
▪ Q3 PAT beats estimates on higher other income: Q3 EBITDA margin, at MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 2,061/25,196
12.8%, came in below our estimate, due to higher other expenses. On a 6m avg traded value (INR mn) 3,991
segmental basis, the auto segment margin came in at 8.3% (-70bps QoQ, vs 52 Week high / low INR 1,758/1,123
our estimate of 8.5%), the FES segment margin was below our estimate at
15.5% (-50bps QoQ, vs our estimate of 16.5%). FES margins in Q3 were
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
impacted by a 70bps one-time impact of World Cup sponsorship in Q3. Other
3M 6M 12M
income came in at INR7.4bn vs our estimate of INR 2.4bn, led by dividend
income from subsidiaries at INR3.5bn (vs INR4.6bn YoY). Absolute (%) 7.6 7.1 21.6
▪ Conference call highlights: (1) While demand is very strong for its new Relative (%) (3.0) (2.7) 3.9
launches, it is sluggish for products priced below INR10-12 lakhs like Bolero
and XUV300. Both Bolero and Scorpio Classic target the rural/semi-urban SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
markets. Due to a difference in target income groups, Bolero demand is
Sept-23 Dec-23
impacted by weak rural sentiment. Scorpio Classic continues to witness good
Promoters 19.34 19.32
demand as it targets higher-income groups. (2) M&M is on track to ramp up
SUV production capacity to 49k units/month, from the current 40-42k FIs & Local MFs 26.16 26.26
units/month. It is stopping XUV300 bookings as it plans a mid-cycle refresh. FPIs 39.32 40.87
Hence, it expects to hit the 49k units/month milestone post-XUV300 refresh.
Public & Others 15.18 13.55
(3) The cancellation rate on their order backlog for Q3 increased to 10% due
Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0
to higher cancellations in Dec-23. The cancellation rates are in the normal
below 8% range in Jan-24. (4) 3W EVs volume has been stable QoQ at 11.6k Source : BSE
units. While M&M lost market share in Q3 (at 48.5%), it has been able to regain Pledged shares as % of total shares
its dominant position in this segment with 62% market share in Jan-24. (5)
Tractor outlook: Management expects the tractor industry to decline 10% in
Q4. (6) M&M has ended 9M with a strong RoE of 19% (ahead of their target
of 18%).
Quarterly/annual financial summary
YE Mar (INR Q3 Q3 YoY Q2 QoQ
FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
mn) FY24 FY23 (%) FY24 (%)
Net Sales 252,885 216,537 16.8 243,099 4.0 849,603 979,603 1,099,963 1,253,230
EBITDA 32,364 28,142 15.0 30,660 5.6 104,424 125,772 142,995 156,654
APAT 24,540 19,997 22.7 31,418 -21.9 74,778 93,158 96,253 104,603
Diluted EPS
20.5 16.7 22.7 26.2 -21.9 62.3 77.7 80.2 87.2
(INR)
P/E (x) core 18.5 14.8 14.3 13.2
Maitreyee Vaishampayan
EV / EBITDA (x) 13.2 11.1 9.6 8.7
maitreyee.vaishampayan@hdfcsec.com
RoCE (%) 19.9 22.1 20.6 19.9
+91-22-6171-7308
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Page | 3
HSIE Results Daily
Oil India
Miss on higher expenses ADD
Our ADD recommendation on Oil India with a target price of INR 530 is CMP (as on 14 Feb 2024) INR 499
premised on oil production growth at 8% CAGR and gas production growth at
Target Price INR 530
26% CAGR over FY24-26E. Q3FY24 EBITDA stood at INR 21bn (-26% YoY, -15%
QoQ), and PAT at INR 15.8bn (-9% YoY, +4.9x QoQ) fell short of our estimate, NIFTY 21,840
mainly impacted by higher other expenses, provision for service tax/GST on
royalty, decline in realisations and higher depreciation. However, this was KEY
OLD NEW
CHANGES
partially offset by higher-than-expected oil and gas production.
Rating ADD ADD
▪ Standalone financial performance: EBITDA in Q3 stood at INR 21bn (-26%
Price Target INR 320 INR 530
YoY, -15% QoQ), below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected other
expenses of INR 31bn (+26% YoY, +2% QoQ), provision for service tax/GST FY24E FY25E
EPS change
on royalty of INR 2.4bn, and a decline in crude oil and natural gas realisations. +6.0% +10.5%
Reported PAT at INR 16bn (-9% YoY, +4.9x QoQ) was also impacted by
higher-than-expected depreciation of INR 5bn (+10% YoY, +18% QoQ).
KEY STOCK DATA
Interest cost of INR 1.8bn (-10% YoY, -19% QoQ) came in lower than our
estimate. Bloomberg code OINL IN
▪ Standalone operational performance: In Q3, the net crude oil realisation, No. of Shares (mn) 1,084
adjusting for the windfall tax stood at USD 74.3/bbl (-0.3% YoY, -2% QoQ); MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 541/6,613
gas realisation was at USD 6.8/mmbtu, (-21% YoY, +1% QoQ). Earnings were
6m avg traded value (INR mn) 1,464
supported by higher-than-expected oil production of 0.86mmt (+6% YoY, +3%
QoQ) and gas production of 0.82bcm (+2% YoY, +1% QoQ). Oil sales volume 52 Week high / low INR 525/238
was at 0.85mmt (+10% YoY, -1% QoQ), while gas sales volume was at 0.68bcm
(+6% YoY, +4% QoQ). STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
▪ Change in estimates: We have raised our consolidated EPS estimates for FPIs 11.26 11.00
FY24/25/26E by 6/10.5/22.8% to INR 58.8/69.6/79.6 per sh, to factor in higher Public & Others 16.19 16.38
production estimates and higher other income. We increased our P/E multiple
Pledged Shares 0.00 0.00
to 5x for OIL’s standalone business and 5.5x for NRL and the increased value
Source : BSE
of investments, which gives us a target price of INR 530/sh.
▪ We value Oil India’s standalone business at INR 303 (5x Mar-25E EPS) and
its investments at INR 227. The stock is currently trading at 7.2x Mar-25E Harshad Katkar
EPS. harshad.katkar@hdfcsec.com
Standalone financial summary +91-22-6171-7319
YE March Q3 Q2 QoQ Q3 YoY
FY22* FY23* FY24E* FY25E* FY26E*
(INR bn) FY24 FY24 (%) FY23 (%) Nilesh Ghuge
Revenues 58 59 (1.7) 59 (1.1) 300 410 376 425 516
nilesh.ghuge@hdfcsec.com
EBITDA 21 25 (15.4) 29 (26.2) 105 153 123 134 155
+91-22-6171-7342
APAT 16 3 387.0 17 (9.3) 56 87 64 76 86
AEPS (INR) 14.6 3.0 387.0 16.1 (9.3) 51.8 80.5 58.8 69.6 79.6 Akshay Mane
P/E (x) 9.6 6.2 8.5 7.2 6.3 akshay.mane@hdfcsec.com
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 4.8 6.1 5.5 4.6 +91-22-6171-7338
RoE (%) 20.7 25.3 15.5 15.8 15.2
Source: Company, HSIE Research | *Consolidated Prasad Vadnere
prasad.vadnere@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7356
Page | 4
HSIE Results Daily
Prestige Estates
Presales outperformance continues BUY
Prestige Estates (PEPL) registered the second highest-ever presales in any
CMP (as on 14 Feb 2024) INR 1,101
quarter by value and volume at INR 53bn (+111%/-25% YoY/QoQ) and 5.5msf
(+88%/-20% YoY/QoQ) resp. This was mainly on the back of robust presales in Target Price INR 1,390
Prestige City Hyderabad with 12.6msf of saleable area contributing INR 24bn NIFTY 21,840
to the presales. On a blended basis, realisation stood at INR 9,755psf (+13%/-6%
YoY/QoQ). For FY24, PEPL expects INR 200bn+ (9MFY24 – INR 163.3bn KEY
OLD NEW
CHANGES
achieved). The first tower of Prestige Ocean Towers Mumbai was launched and
Rating BUY BUY
PEPL achieved INR 4bn in sales (40% of launched inventory). Prestige Nautilus
in MMR will be launched in 1QFY25. It will launch its first project in NCR, Price Target INR 1,241 INR 1,390
Prestige Bougainvillea Gardens, in 1QFY25 with a saleable area of 3.1msf. We EPS Change FY24E FY25E FY26E
maintain BUY, with an increased SOTP-based TP of INR 1,390/sh, to factor in % - - -
better-than-expected realisation/presales and an improving visibility on office
assets. PEPL has closed some large BD transactions in Noida/Delhi and this
KEY STOCK DATA
shall add incrementally from Q3FY25.
▪ Q3FY24 financial highlights: Reported revenue was INR 17.9bn (-22%/-20% Bloomberg code PEPL IN
YoY/QoQ, a miss of 28%). EBITDA was INR 5.5bn (-4%/-7% YoY/QoQ, a 17% No. of Shares (mn) 401
miss). EBITDA margin was 30.7% (+593/+422bps YoY/QoQ, vs. our estimate MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 441/5,395
of 26.8%). APAT was INR 1.2bn (-9%/-32% YoY/QoQ, a 4% beat).
6m avg traded value (INR mn) 1,080
▪ Strong traction in presales, looking at record FY24: Q3FY24 presales were
52 Week high / low INR 1,440/391
the second-highest quarter presales with volume at 5.5msf (+88%/-20%
YoY/QoQ) valued INR 53.2bn (+111%/-25% YoY/QoQ). On a blended basis,
realisation stood at INR 9,755psf (+13%/-6% YoY/QoQ). The presales were STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
supported by the highest ever 14.6msf of project launches, the largest of which 3M 6M 12M
was Prestige City Hyderabad with 12.6msf of saleable area contributing INR Absolute (%) 30.6 98.8 178.0
24bn to the presales. For FY24, PEPL expects INR 200bn+ (9MFY24 – INR
Relative (%) 20.0 89.0 160.3
163.3bn achieved).
▪ Robust collections to support execution: Net debt increased to INR 69.8bn
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
(+INR 198mn QoQ), from INR 69.6bn in Sep-23. Net D/E is at 0.6x (0.61x in
Sep-23). Gross debt (excluding ongoing capex) is INR 81.8bn (vs INR 72.7bn Sep-23 Dec-23
in Sep’23). PEPL has to incur INR 47.5bn on the ongoing commercial capex Promoters 65.48 65.48
and INR 65.2bn on the upcoming commercial capex. Towards retail capex, it
FIs & Local MFs 12.82 13.17
has to spend INR 2.8bn on ongoing and INR 13.7bn on upcoming retail assets.
The total exit rental for March 2024 is expected at INR 5.5bn. This includes FPIs 19.50 18.07
INR 3.3bn of office rentals and 2.1bn of retail. Total collections were at INR Public & Others 2.20 3.28
31.1bn (+36/+18% YoY/QoQ) with more than INR 120bn expected in FY24. Pledged Shares - -
Consolidated Financial Summary
Source: BSE
(INR in mn) 3QFY24 3QFY23 YoY (%) 2QFY24 QoQ (%) FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Sales 17,958 23,170 (22.5) 22,364 (19.7) 83,150 83,972 93,359 108,745
EBITDA 5,515 5,742 (4.0) 5,925 (6.9) 20,863 24,140 26,888 32,374
APAT 1,163 1,278 (9.0) 1,701 (31.6) 5,592 5,526 6,129 9,529
EPS (INR) 2.9 3.2 (9.0) 4.2 (31.6) 13.9 13.8 15.3 23.8
P/E (x) 79.3 80.2 72.3 46.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 24.3 20.9 19.1 15.9
RoE (%) 5.9 5.4 5.7 8.4
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Page | 5
HSIE Results Daily
Ahluwalia Contracts
Robust execution delivers earnings beat ADD
Ahluwalia Contracts (AHLU) reported a strong quarter with CMP (as on 14 Feb 2024) INR 1,000
revenue/EBITDA/APAT beating our estimates by 15.1/19.1/22.5%. EBITDA
Target Price INR 990
margin stood at 10.9% (+128/+94bps YoY/QoQ, vs. our estimate of 10.5%). AHLU
increased its FY24 revenue guidance of 20% YoY growth to 30%+, with EBITDA NIFTY 21,840
margin (incl. other income) upwards of 11%. The total order inflow in FYTD24
stands at INR 58.3bn ex of L1 of INR 33bn. The OB as of Dec’23 stood at INR KEY
OLD NEW
CHANGES
112.5bn (~4x FY23 revenue), excluding L1 in two projects of INR 33bn
Rating ADD ADD
(international jewellery park in Mumbai and Guwahati sports complex). AHLU
is effectively debt-free, with a negligible gross debt of INR 420/319mn and total Price Target INR 824 INR 990
cash and cash equivalents of over INR 5.8/5.2bn, as of Dec/Sep’23 end. For FY25, EPS Change FY24E FY25E FY26E
order inflow is expected at INR 50bn, given it will be a truncated award year % -1.3 0.9 6.9
owing to elections. Given the recent rally in the stock price and a limited upside
to our target price, we maintain our ADD rating on the stock. We have KEY STOCK DATA
recalibrated our estimates higher to factor in better-than-expected revenue
Bloomberg code AHLU IN
growth and we have increased our TP to INR 990 (15x Mar-26E EPS).
▪ Q3FY24 financial highlights: Revenue: INR 10.3bn (+38/+14% YoY/QoQ, a No. of Shares (mn) 67
beat of 15.1%). EBITDA: INR 1.1bn (+56/+25% YoY/QoQ, a beat of 19%). MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 67/819
EBITDA margin: 10.9% (+128/+94bps YoY/QoQ, vs. our estimate of 10.5%).
6m avg traded value (INR mn) 76
RPAT/APAT: INR 707mn (+57/+28% YoY/QoQ, a beat of 23%). AHLU
increased its FY24 revenue guidance of 20% YoY growth to 30%+, with 52 Week high / low INR 1,015/448
Q4FY24. Order inflow guidance for FY25 is pegged at INR 50bn as order
awards could be truncated due to central elections. Bidding is expected to pick SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
up from H2FY25. AHLU expects 20% revenue growth for FY25/26, given a Sep-23 Dec-23
robust order book.
Promoters 55.32 55.32
▪ Robust net cash position: AHLU is effectively debt-free, with a negligible
gross debt of INR 420/319mn and total cash and cash equivalents of over INR FIs & Local MFs 26.65 26.40
5.8/5.2bn, as of Dec/Sep’23 end. Capex incurred in 9MFY24 is INR 860mn and FPIs 12.60 12.66
the yearly run rate is expected to be at INR 1.2bn for FY24. Public & Others 5.43 5.61
Standalone Financial Summary (INR mn)
Pledged Shares 2.99 -
YE March 3QFY24 3QFY23 YoY (%) 2QFY24 QoQ (%) FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Sales 10,265 7,433 38.1 9,015 13.9 28,384 37,949 45,160 54,192 Source: BSE
EBITDA 1,118 715 56.5 898 24.6 3,042 4,042 5,284 6,720 Pledged shares as % of total shares
APAT 707 450 57.0 553 27.8 1,942 2,510 3,379 4,422
EPS (INR) 10.5 6.7 57.0 8.3 27.8 29.0 37.5 50.4 66.0
P/E (x) 34.5 26.7 19.8 15.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.2 15.9 11.9 9.2
RoE (%) 17.1 18.7 20.9 22.1
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Page | 6
HSIE Results Daily
Rating Criteria
BUY: >+15% return potential
ADD: +5% to +15% return potential
REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential
SELL: > 10% Downside return potential
Disclosure:
Analyst Company Covered Qualification Any holding in the stock
Maitreyee Vaishampayan Mahindra & Mahindra MSC NO
Harshad Katkar Oil India MBA NO
Nilesh Ghuge Oil India MMS NO
Akshay Mane Oil India PGDM NO
Prasad Vadnere Oil India MSC NO
Parikshit Kandpal Prestige Estates, Ahluwalia Contracts CFA NO
1 Yr Price movement
M&M Oil India Prestige Estates Projects
2000 600 1500
1500
400 1000
1000
200 500
500
0 0 0
Dec-23
Dec-23
Nov-23
Sep-23
Aug-23
Aug-23
Dec-23
Aug-23
Mar-23
Jul-23
Nov-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Nov-23
Sep-23
Jan-24
Mar-23
Jan-24
Mar-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Jan-24
Oct-23
Feb-24
Jun-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Feb-23
Feb-24
May-23
Feb-23
May-23
Feb-24
Oct-23
Oct-23
May-23
Ahluwalia Contracts
1500
1000
500
0
Dec-23
Mar-23
Aug-23
Apr-23
Nov-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Jan-24
Feb-23
Oct-23
Feb-24
May-23
Page | 7
HSIE Results Daily
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Page | 8