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KALPATARU POWER
Starts FY20 on a high; utilisation of sale proceeds key
COMPANYNAME
India Equity Research| Engineering and Capital Goods
e
Kalpataru Power’s (KPP) Q1FY20 numbers were well ahead of estimates led
EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS
by strong spurt in non-T&D execution. Jump in borrowings (2x QoQ) is
Absolute Rating BUY
seasonal, further accentuated by payment of INR2.3bn towards Shree
Rating Relative to Sector Outperform
Shubham Logistics and Linjemontage. Management’s 15-20% FY20 revenue
Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium
growth guidance is achievable, we believe, considering strong order book/
Sector Relative to Market Overweight
pipeline (INR 170bn). KPP ticks all the key parameter boxes w.r.t. growth,
profitability, working capital management, return ratios, etc. For us,
effective utilisation of proceeds from sale of assets is a key monitorable, MARKET DATA (R: KAPT.BO, B: KPP IN)
apart from sustained unbundling of balance sheet. We maintain KPP as our CMP : INR 476
top pick in the T&D EPC space with ‘BUY’ and TP of INR575. Target Price : INR 575
52-week range (INR) : 555 / 267
Share in issue (mn) : 153.5
Robust execution and order pipeline impart guidance comfort
M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 73 / 1,060
KPP sustained robust execution pace with 25% revenue growth led by railways (up Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 110.0
300% YoY) and oil & gas (up 40% YoY). T&D revenue declined 5-6% primarily led by
international T&D. KPP’s order inflow of INR17.5bn coupled with L1 position of SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)
INR2.3bn and pick up in ordering for green corridor lend comfort on 15-20% revenue
Current Q4FY19 Q3FY19
growth and INR100bn order inflow guidance.
Promoters * 59.3 59.3 59.3
MF's, FI's & BK’s 25.7 25.3 24.5
Sharp jump in debt, but well within control
FII's 4.6 4.4 4.6
Debt jumped by ~INR5bn QoQ (flat YoY) to INR 10bn (less than 0.4x D/E) led by: 1) Others 10.4 11.0 11.6
higher working capital (collections stretched and higher revenue); 2) investment in * Promoters pledged shares : 6.0
Linjemontage (INR1.3bn); and 3) preference capital investment in Shubham (INR1.0bn). (% of share in issue)
This is expected to normalise with internal accruals and sale proceeds from
transmission assets (INR4-5bn expected in FY20). PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
EW Capital
Stock Nifty
Goods Index
JMC on a strong footing
JMC reported 30% plus jump in revenue, EBITDA and PAT in Q1FY20 with strong pick 1 month (9.7) (6.0) (12.2)
up in infrastructure segment. Building and factories (B&F) is expected to gather steam 3 months 1.7 (5.7) (3.2)
in FY20 as 90% of JMC’s Q1FY20 order inflow was from the segment. 12 months 28.1 (2.1) (3.8)
Year to March Q1FY20 Q1FY19 % Chg Q4FY19 % Chg FY19 FY20E FY21E
Amit Mahawar
Net revenues 16,550 13,249 24.9 24,914 (33.6) 71,151 82,960 94,125 +91 22 4040 7451
EBITDA 1,920 1,571 22.2 2,664 (27.9) 7,782 9,151 10,256 amit.mahawar@edelweissfin.com
Adjusted Profit 920 810 13.5 1,369 (32.8) 4,013 4,601 5,186 Ashutosh Mehta
Diluted EPS (INR) 6.0 5.3 13.5 8.9 (32.8) 26.2 30.0 33.8 +91 22 6141 2748
ashutosh.mehta@edelweissfin.com
Diluted P/E (x) 18.2 15.9 14.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.0 8.8 7.8
ROAE (%) 13.6 13.7 13.6 July 31, 2019
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Engineering and Capital Goods
JMC Projects
Revenue growth of 20% and EBITDA margin in the 10.5-10.7% range.
Debt – INR8bn.
Business performance
KPTL standalone
Green corridor project – five-six tenders have been won by private companies and
PGCIL. KPTL should clock some order wins from green corridor in Q2. None of this has
been considered in L1 position. However, it has been considered in guidance.
Winning green corridor projects for KPTL as a developer is NIL.
Railways - INR20-25bn order inflow from railways. INR10bn already bagged (including
L1 position).
Linjemontage - Order inflow in Q1FY20 - INR690mn. L1 position - INR2.8bn. Margin in
the 4-5% range.
Road projects
Average per day collection at INR5.85mn (INR5.52mn YoY).
Revenue growth of 5.2% YoY (excluding overloading).
JMC
Order inflow mainly driven by B&F projects.
FY19 – F&B growth should be 5-6% and primary growth will be driven by infrastructure
segment.
Shubham Logistics
Preference share capital has been reflected as debt, hence debt is approximately same
as Q4FY19. Preference capital has been used to repay external debt.
Transmission asset
Cashflow from sale of transmission assets from Q3FY20.
Tax outflow – INR0.9-1.0bn. Net cashflow of ~INR11bn. 40% (~INR 4-5bn) of this should
be received in current year and balance in next year.
~50% should be used for debt reduction.
Jhajjar asset held only for strategic purpose.
Other comments
Completed acquisition of Linjemontage. Revenue of INR1bn and order book of
INR4.2bn.
Q1FY20 - Oil & gas up 40%, railways up 300%. While T&D declined by 5-6%. T&D is likely
to witness traction from H2FY20.
Revenue breakdown - T&D INR 9.5bn; Railways – INR 4bn; oil & gas – INR 2.7bn.
International T&D has declined. Domestic T&D grew 15%.
FY20 revenue growth - T&D 10-12%, railways 40-45%.
Borrowing increased on working capital requirement (collections stretched and higher
revenue), investment in Linjemontage (INR 1.3bn), preference investment in Shubham
(INR 1bn).
Despite robust top line growth of 25%, margin did not improve due to: 1) forex gain of
INR 100mn in Q1FY19 versus loss of INR 60mn in Q1FY20; and 2) donations of INR
150mn by KPTL and INR 50mn by JMC.
Currently executing more than 10 to 12 water projects. This business requires limited
capex. Competition is present but not aggressive. Opportunity over the next five years
is huge, providing growth to all players.
NWC has increased on back of reduction in payables.
Total investment in Indore – INR 4bn.
KPTL - Capex – INR 2bn (INR 400mn in Q1) and JMC – INR 1bn.
Depreciation increased by INR 30mn on Ind AS 116 and higher capitalisation in March.
Company Description
KPP has three business divisions viz., transmission line, biomass energy and infrastructure. It
has an in-house tower testing station with a capacity to test square/rectangular base towers
of up to 800 kV D/C as well as multi-circuit towers. KPP is exposed to construction segment
with a 67% stake in JMC Projects (JMC); JMC is primarily engaged in the construction of
industrial buildings, and residential and commercial complexes. Off late, JMC has ventured
into the infrastructure segment with projects in roads, bridges, flyovers, and transportation
structures.
Investment Theme
T&D spending in India is expected to be around INR2,300bn over FY18-23E, a jump of 28%
to drive growth, with non T&D revenues growing in excess of 25% over the next 2 years.
Key Risks
over FY12-17 period. Large part of this spend is likely from the states. Additionally ordering
for green energy corridor is likely to provide ample opportunities in the domestic market.
Also, expansion in regional transmission network in Africa and Middle East is likely to
supplement domestic demand and present a large business opportunity.
KPP has significantly scaled up the non-T&D segments (Railways and oil & gas) and margins
have in these segments have improved significantly. We expect, these segments to continue
Power T&D investments are executed by state utilities, which, in turn, are mandated by the
government. Hence, any change in the political environment can potentially impact the pace
of execution in the industry, thus impacting the timing of revenue growth.
Additionally, customer concentration risk is high in the business, which in turn, impacts the
bargaining power of transmission tower companies.
KPP has enhanced focus on monetising its investments in transmission assets, Road BOT and
real estate. Utilisation of the sale proceeds remains a key monitorable.
Financial Statements
Key Assumptions Income statement (INR mn)
Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Macro Income from operations 57,412 71,151 82,960 94,125
GDP(Y-o-Y %) 6.7 7.1 7.1 7.3 Materials costs 41,215 52,497 61,447 70,033
Inflation (Avg) 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.5 Employee costs 3,487 4,541 4,978 5,459
Repo rate (exit rate) 6.0 6.3 5.8 5.8 Other mfg expenses 6,397 6,331 7,383 8,377
USD/INR (Avg) 64.5 70.0 72.0 72.0 Total operating expenses 51,100 63,369 73,808 83,869
Company EBITDA 6,312 7,782 9,151 10,256
KPP SA Order intake (%) 50.8 (10.7) 8.1 11.4 Depreciation 766 860 1,054 1,147
JM order intake (%) 3.9 68.6 5.0 2.0 EBIT 5,546 6,922 8,098 9,109
KPP SA sales growth (%) 17.3 23.9 16.6 13.5 Less: Interest Expense 1,033 1,190 1,417 1,529
JMC sales growth (%) 16.8 18.0 21.5 19.0 Add: Other income 480 512 509 524
Tax rate (%) 35.5 35.7 36.0 36.0 Profit Before Tax 4,993 6,244 7,189 8,104
Less: Provision for Tax 1,773 2,231 2,588 2,917
Reported Profit 3,220 4,013 4,601 5,186
Adjusted Profit 3,220 4,013 4,601 5,186
Shares o /s (mn) 153 153 153 153
Adjusted Basic EPS 21.0 26.2 30.0 33.8
Diluted shares o/s (mn) 153 153 153 153
Adjusted Diluted EPS 21.0 26.2 30.0 33.8
Adjusted Cash EPS 26.4 31.9 36.8 41.3
Dividend per share (DPS) 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5
Dividend Payout Ratio(%) 15.9 13.8 14.0 12.4
Additional Data
Directors Data
Mofatraj P Munot Chairman Manish Mohnot Managing Director & CEO
Narayan Seshadri Non Executive Independent Director Sajjanraj Mehta Non Executive Independent Director
Vimal Bhandari Non Executive Independent Director K V Mani Independent Director
Parag Munot Promoter - Director Imtiaz Kanga Non Executive Director
Anjali Seth Independent Director
Holding – Top10
Perc. Holding Perc. Holding
Kalpataru constructi 15.22 K c holdings pvt ltd 13.78
Hdfc asset managemen 9.28 Kalpataru properties 8.89
Munot parag mofatraj 8.77 Munot mofatraj pukhr 7.43
Icici prudential lif 3.28 Reliance capital tru 2.21
Hsbc global inv maur 2.15 Dsp blackrock invest 1.79
*in last one year
Bulk Deals
Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price
No Data Available
*in last one year
Insider Trades
Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded
No Data Available
*in last one year
ABSOLUTE RATING
Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months
Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe
within the sector
SECTOR RATING
Ratings Criteria
Overweight (OW) Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return
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ADITYA
Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN
DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES
Aditya Narain LIMITED, ou=SERVICE,
2.5.4.20=3dc92af943d52d778c99d69c48a8
e0c89e548e5001b4f8141cf423fd58c07b02,
Head of Research
NARAIN
postalCode=400011, st=MAHARASHTRA,
serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c279
90f20bf0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c30092792
aditya.narain@edelweissfin.com c20, cn=ADITYA NARAIN
Date: 2019.07.31 13:30:44 +05'30'
Recent Research
Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos
Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240 Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period
* 1stocks under review
Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period
> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn
743
Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period
Market Cap (INR) 156 62 11
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