Stock Update

Affle (India) Ltd

Robust Q2; long runway for growth
Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Internet & new media Sharekhan code: AFFLE

3R MATRIX + = -
Reco/View: Buy  CMP: Rs. 1,168 Price Target: Rs. 1,400 á
Right Sector (RS) ü
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Right Quality (RQ) ü Summary

Right Valuation (RV) ü Š Strong revenue growth, led by robust organic growth and higher incremental revenue
contribution from the Jampp acquisition; EBITDA margins contracted by 656 bps y-o-y
+ Positive = Neutral – Negative owing to negative impact of Jampp’s consolidation.
Š Improvement in Jampp’s performance in Q2FY22 remains encouraging; Jampp’s EBITDA
margins are expected to improve to high single-digits over one year from 5% currently and
to ~20% over the next 1.5-2.5 years.
What has changed in 3R MATRIX Š The management remains confident of posting better growth than the digital advertising
industry’s average (25-30% CAGR in the medium term); we expect Affle to clock revenue/
Old New earnings CAGR of 26%/32%, respectively over FY2022-24E
Š We maintain a Buy on Affle (India) Ltd with a revised PT of Rs. 1,400, given its unique CPCU
RS  business model, expansion into new geographies and greater adoption of its platform.
RQ  Affle (India) Limited (Affle) delivered another quarter of strong revenue growth led by robust
organic growth and higher incremental revenue contribution from acquisition of Jampp,
RV  while EBITDA margins declined by 656 bps y-o-y owing to the consolidation impact of the
acquisition. Revenues grew by 103.6% y-o-y to Rs. 274.7 crore, aided by Rs. 82.4 crore of
incremental revenue contribution from Jampp acquisition. We believe that the company has
done a commendable job in improving the performance of Jampp in terms of both revenue (Rs.
82.4 crore versus ~Rs. 54 crore quarterly revenue in CY2020) and EBITDA margins (improved
Company details to 5% from breakeven level in CY2020). The management remains confident to deliver
better than the average of the digital advertising industry growth rate going ahead, which
Market cap: Rs. 15,559 cr is expected to grow at 25-30% CAGR in the long term. We believe Affle is well-positioned to
deliver a revenue CAGR of 26% over FY2022-FY2024E on the back of its leadership position
52-week high/low: Rs. 1,259/561 in emerging markets, expansion into developed markets and increasing budget towards
mobile advertising.
NSE volume: Key positives
1.2 lakh
(No of shares) Š Stronger-than-expected revenue growth; revenue grew by 103.6% y-o-y.
BSE code: 542752 Š Converted users grew by 73.3% y-o-y
Š Strong recovery in Jampp’s performance post acquisition
NSE code: AFFLE Key negatives
Š EBIT margin of international markets declined to 20.8% from 31.4% in Q2FY2021
Free float:
5.3 cr Š Weak operating cash flow; OCF to net profit ratio stood at 18% versus 139% in Q1FY2022
(No of shares)
Management Commentary
Š Affle would grow better than the average digital advertising industry growth rate in the
medium term
Shareholding (%) Š India business would continue to contribute 30% to its total revenue going ahead.
Š Jampp’s EBITDA margin would improve to around high single-digits over the next one year
Promoters 60 and ~20% over next 1.5-2.5 years.
Revision in estimates – We raised our earnings estimates FY22E/FY23E/FY24E given strong
DII 7 beat on revenue and net profit and better-than expected performance of Jampp .
Our Call
FII 22
Valuation – Strong growth momentum to continue: Affle India is better placed to capture
Others 12 opportunities from favourable industry tailwinds given its competencies in both in-app and
on-device ecosystems, end-to-end offerings in the CPCU business model and a first-mover
advantage in emerging markets. We forecast Affle India’s revenues and earnings to report a
CAGR of 26% and 32%, respectively, over FY2022-FY2024E. At CMP, the stock trades at 68x/50x
Price chart its FY2023E/FY2024E earnings. We continue to like Affle given its strong balance sheet, greater
adoption of its platform, strengthening relationships with advertisers directly and a long runway
1,300 for growth. Hence, we maintain a Buy rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 1,400.
1,100 Key Risks
(1) Entry of a large technology player in this space; (2) Inability to generate relevant data for
900 targeted advertisers; and (3) Government regulations related to management of consumer data
700 and respect for privacy.

500 Valuation Rs cr
Particulars FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Mar-21

Jul-21
Nov-20

Nov-21

Revenue 516.8 989.1 1,237.8 1,564.1

OPM (%) 25.2 19.6 21.1 23.0
Adjusted PAT 135.0 180.3 230.2 311.9
Price performance % YoY growth 106.1 33.5 27.7 35.5
(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 53.0 13.5 17.3 23.4
P/E (x) 115.2 86.3 67.6 49.9
Absolute -0.4 39.3 11.9 104.0
P/B (x) 43.4 28.8 20.2 14.7
Relative to EV/EBITDA (x) 119.5 79.5 58.4 33.2
-0.3 29.8 -12.7 64.0
Sensex RoNW (%) 37.6 33.4 29.9 29.5
Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg RoCE (%) 34.3 30.8 28.9 29.6
Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates

November 12, 2021 2

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Strong quarter, but weak operating cash flow

Affle delivered yet another quarter of strong revenue growth, aided by strong organic growth and higher
incremental revenue contribution from Jampp acquisition, while EBITDA margin remained in line with
our expectations. Revenues grew by 103.6% y-o-y to Rs. 274.7 crore, led by 62% y-o-y growth in organic
converted users and higher incremental revenue contribution of Rs. 82.4 crore (59% of total growth) from
Jampp acquisition. The number of converted users grew by 73.3% y-o-y during Q2FY2022 on the back of
strong growth in organic business, while CPCU rate grew by 27.3%/22.1% y-o-y/q-o-q to Rs. 51.3 because
of higher business mix from international markets. EBITDA margins declined by 656 bps y-o-y to 18.9%,
in line with our estimates, owing to impact of Jampp consolidation (EBITDA margin was 5% in Q2FY2022).
However, EBITDA grew 51% y-o-y to Rs. 52 crore. Reported net profit came at Rs. 47.6 crore, led by strong
revenue growth and higher other income, partially offset by higher tax provisions. Excluding extraordinary
items (gains on revaluation of financial instruments and tax outgo on gain on financial instruments), adjusted
net profit came in at Rs. 41.9 crore (up 55.9% y-o-y and 46.9% q-o-q) and was 21% ahead of our estimates.
Operating cash flow (OCF) declined by 71% y-o-y, implying an OCF to net profit of 18% versus 139%/96% in
Q1FY2022/Q2FY2021.
Key result highlights from earnings call
Š Revenue mix shifted toward international markets, as expected: Revenues grew by 103.6% y-o-y, led
by a 36% y-o-y and 174% y-o-y growth in India and international markets, respectively. The company’s
revenue contribution shifted towards international markets (67% versus 50% in Q1FY2022) on the back
of the consolidation of Jampp (largely present in LatAm and America in certain verticals) and higher
on-ground presence in the LatAm region. This business mix change had a positive impact on average
CPCU rate, which grew 22%/27% q-o-q/y-o-y in Q2FY2022. The management indicated that India would
continue to contribute over 30% to total revenue going ahead despite investments in the international
markets.
Š Jampp’s performance improved significantly post acquisition: Jampp’s acquisition contributed Rs. 82.4
crore (30% of total consolidated revenue) to Affle’s consolidated revenue during Q2FY2022, while it
contributed Rs. 4.8 crore to Affle’s net profit. Note that Jampp’s quarterly revenue rate was approximately
Rs. 54.4 crore during CY2020. Jampp’s revenue contribution of Rs. 82.4 crore in Q2FY22 indicates
significant improvement in its quarterly revenue run-rate in CY2022. Further, the Jampp’s EBITDA margin
improved to 5% in Q2FY2022 from breakeven level in CY2020. Management believes Jampp’s EBITDA
margins would improve to around high single-digit over next one year and around 20% over the next 1.5-
2.5 years. We believe that the company has done commendable job in improving Jampp’s performance
meaningfully through upselling and cross-selling efforts.
Š Deepening relationship with advertisers directly: The management highlighted that it has strengthened
its position with the investments in enhancing platform and product capabilities across the global and
emerging markets. The company’s strategy is primarily based on 2V (vernacular and verticalisation)
approach which enables the company to offer higher conversion rate to advertisers by partnering with
mobile OEMs and operators. As a results, the company’s direct customer contribution increased to 74%
to its total revenue in Q2FY2022 from 71%/67% in Q1FY2022/FY2021. In last two years, the agencies
revenue contribution has substantially declined and the company has deepened its relationship with
advertisers directly.
Š Strong industry tailwinds to drive growth: Affle India’s management highlighted that the world is
undergoing a paradigm shift with accelerated connected experiences, which has redefined digital priorities
of advertisers across the globe. The management remains optimistic on delivering strong revenue growth
in the next 3-5 years, led by shift of advertising budgets towards mobiles and programmatic advertising
by advertisers. We note that the company has reported Q2 revenue CAGR of 65.7% over last three years,
which is way above industry growth trends. Management cited that the company would continue to
grow better than the digital advertising industry’s average growth rate, which is expected to clock a
25-30% CAGR in the long-term. Given a sharp increase in connected devices and higher adoption of
smart devices, the advertising spend allocation towards mobiles is expected to accelerate going ahead.
Further, adoption of its consumer platform in its key high-growth segments (90% of its total revenue)
would continue to increase, which would help to drive the user conversions going ahead.

November 12, 2021 3

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Š Margins to expand in the medium-term: The company’s EBITDA margin contracted sharply (down 656
bps y-o-y) in Q2FY2022 owing to impact of consolidation of Jampp acquisition. The management remains
confident of expanding the margins to high single digits and around 20% over next one year and over
next 1.5 – 2.5 years respectively on the back of optimisation of the acquired entity’s business model
and platform. However, thewould continue to invest through organic and in-organic route to deepen the
market penetration and enhance tech capabilities.
Š Consistent growth in advertising spend across its top verticals: Affle has divided its high-growth verticals
in four categories (E, F, G, and H), which contributed over 90% to its total revenue in Q2FY2022 as against
74% in FY2020. Management witnessed strong traction for its offerings across category E (E-commerce,
Entertainment, EdTech), category F (Fintech, Foodtech, and FMCG), category G (Gaming, Groceries, and
Government),and category H (Healthtech). The management indicated that the company witnessed
consistent growth across these verticals as advertisers in these industry verticals have been digital much
faster than earlier.
Š Weak cashflow: Cash flow from operations stood at Rs. 7.6 crore in Q2FY2022, implies a cash conversion
to net profit ratio of 18% versus 139% in Q1FY2022.The management highlighted that it continues to focus
on working capital management and positive cash flow from operations in coming quarters.
Š Focus on 2V strategy: The management indicated that it would continue to invest 2V strategy along
with emphasis on the vertical omni-channel integration to further strengthen market position and expand
reach across connected devices. The company takes different approaches, including proximity marketing,
connected TV medium and partnership with OEMs to reach its customers through the 2V strategy. The
management highlighted that the company’s focused execution on Affle 2.0 strategy enabled it to drive
deeper verticalisation for its advertisers across top 10 verticals. Further, it highlighted that the demand for
visual ad would continue to remain strong for the next 3-5 years.
Š Commentary on tech IP creation: The management highlighted that the company’s consistent focus on
R&D and IP creation has consistently delivered value to customers and partners. The company recently
got three patent grants in the USA, taking total patent grants to six in the USA. IPs will lay-out strategic
long-term growth direction for the company and also will provide defensive strategy in the developed
markets.

Results (Consolidated) Rs cr
Particulars Q2FY22 Q2FY21 YoY (%) Q1FY22 QoQ (%)
Net sales 274.7 135.0 103.6 152.5 80.2
Inventory and data costs 175.5 77.7 125.9 88.4 98.5
Employee expenses 31.4 13.1 138.6 18.8 67.2
Other expenses 15.8 9.7 62.8 10.2 54.7
EBITDA 52.0 34.4 51.2 35.1 48.4
Depreciation 8.1 5.1 58.0 5.2 55.3
EBIT 44.0 29.3 50.0 29.9 47.2
Other Income 15.2 1.6 831.0 12.7 20.0
Finance cost 2.2 0.9 145.9 1.4 54.1
PBT 57.0 30.1 89.7 41.2 38.6
Total tax 9.2 3.1 199.0 5.3 75.0
Reported net profit 47.6 26.9 77.1 35.7 33.3
Adjusted net profit 41.9 26.9 55.9 28.5 46.9
Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 18.1 10.6 70.9 13.7 32.2
Margin (%) BPS BPS
EBITDA 18.9 25.5 -656 23.0 -405
EBIT 16.0 21.7 -571 19.6 -358
Adjusted NPM 17.3 19.9 -259 23.4 -610
Tax rate 16.1 10.2 590 12.8 336
Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

November 12, 2021 4

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Strong revenue growth trend (y-o-y)

110 103.6
100
90
76.9
80 69.8
70
%

59.3 59.3
60
50 40.4
37.1
40 32.3
27.0
30 20.4
20
10
Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

EBITDA margin (%) trend

31
28.9
29
26.4
27 25.7 25.5 25.5
25.0 25.0
24.4
25
%

23.0
23

21
18.9
19

17

15
Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

Converted users (no in crore) and growth (% y-o-y)

6 100
85.3
81.6
4.9 80
5
51.9 46.4 73.3 60
4
43.4
35.0 3.2 40
3.1 3.0
No in crore

3 21.6 2.8
2.1 2.4 20
1.9 1.7
2 1.7 1.6
0
1 -20

0 (27.2) -40
Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22
Converted user (no in crore) Growth y-o-y (%)

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

November 12, 2021 5

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Outlook and Valuation

n Sector view - Expect strong growth in mobile ad revenue to continue
Digital advertising spends are expected to report a 32.5% and 18% CAGR, respectively, in India and Southeast
Asia (SEA) in the next 5 years because of rising active internet users, rapid adoption of smartphones and
connected devices, and a young population.Mobile advertisement spends areprojected to reach a 50% of
total advertisingspendsfrom 20% currently over next three years. The combined opportunities in mobile-app
video, OTTand CTV programmatic advertisingspendsacross the globe are expected to post a 17% CAGR over
2020-2025.
n Company outlook - Long runway for growth
Affle’s exposure in fast-growing markets such as India and South-East Asia and segments such as e-Commerce
provide a platform for sustainable growth momentum in the long term. With a scalable end-to-end offering
across ad-tech value chain and the CPCU model, we believe that Affle would continue to derive high RoI for
advertisers. Management expects to deliver at least a 25-30% revenue CAGR in the next five yearsbecause
of its CPCU model, focus on 2V strategies to strengthen market position, expand its reach to connected
devices and entry into new geographies.
n Valuation - Presence in the right spots
Affle India is better placed to capture opportunities from favourable industry tailwinds given its competencies
in both in-app and on-device ecosystems, end-to-end offerings in the CPCU business model and a first-
mover advantage in emerging markets. We forecast Affle India’s revenues and earnings to report a CAGR
of 26% and 32%, respectively, over FY2022-FY2024E. At CMP, the stock trades at 68x/50x its FY2023E/
FY2024E earnings. We continue to like Affle given its strong balance sheet, greater adoption of its platform,
strengthening relationships with advertisers directly and a long runway for growth. Hence, we maintain a Buy
rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 1,400.

One-year forward P/E (x) band

100
90
80
70
60
P/E (x)

50
40
30
20
10
0
Aug-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 Jul-21 Nov-21

P/E (x) Avg. P/E (x) Peak P/E (x) Trough P/E (x)

Source: Sharekhan Research

Peer Comparison
CMP Mcap P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%)
Shares
Company Rs./ Rs.
Crore FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E
Share crore
Just Dial 785 6,563 41.9 24.2 45.2 16.9 3.8 3.4 5.4 8.1 785
Info Edge* 6,404 82,467 163.0 126.8 149.7 115.4 16.6 15.0 10.2 11.9 6,404
Affle India 1,168 15,559 86.3 67.6 79.5 58.4 28.8 20.2 33.4 29.9 1,168
Source: Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg
*Standalone

November 12, 2021 6

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About company
Affle is a global technology company with a leading market position in India. The company has two business
segments, i.e. (1) consumer platform and (2) enterprise platform. The consumer intelligence platform delivers
consumer engagement, acquisitions, and transactions for leading brands and B2C companies through
relevant mobile advertising. Affle aims to enhance returns on marketing spend through delivering contextual
mobile ads and reducing digital ad fraud, while proactively addressing consumer privacy expectations. The
enterprise platform helps offline companies to go online through platform-based app development, enabling
of O2O (online to offline) commerce, and data analytics.

Investment theme
Affle, a leading adtech company in India, provides end-to-end offerings to advertisers through mobileadvertising
using its proprietary mobile audience as a service (MAAS) platform for customers. Given its deep learning
algorithm capabilities and ability to deliver more targeted and personalised advertisements, more advertisers
have been using the consumer platform for running their digital ad campaigns on its platform. With increased
share of digital ad spends and shifting of advertisers towards programmatic advertising, ad-tech vendors
such as Affle are well placed to deliver higher growth going ahead.

Key Risks
(1) High client concentration; (2)entry of large tech player in this space; and (3) inability to generate actionable
outcomes for targeted advertisers.

Additional Data
Key management personnel
Anuj Khanna Sohum Founder, Chairman & CEO
Anuj Kumar Co-founder, Chief revenue & operating office
KapilBhutani Chief financial&operationsofficer
Mei Theng Leong Chief finance & commercial officer
Vipul Kedia Chief data and Platforms officer
Source: Bloomberg

Top 10 shareholders
Sr. No. Holder Name Holding (%)
1 Abrdn PLC 4.76
2 MALABAR INDIA FUND LTD 4.48
3 Nomura India Investment 1.79
4 ABERDEEN STD ASIA FO PLC 1.63
5 Nippon Life India Asset Management 1.62
6 Franklin Resources Inc 1.29
7 Vanguard Group Inc 1.18
8 William Blair & CO LLC 0.96
9 Blackrock Inc 0.64
10 Blackstone Asia Advisors 0.63
Source: Bloomberg

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

November 12, 2021 7

Understanding the Sharekhan 3R Matrix
Right Sector
Positive Strong industry fundamentals (favorable demand-supply scenario, consistent
industry growth), increasing investments, higher entry barrier, and favorable
government policies
Neutral Stagnancy in the industry growth due to macro factors and lower incremental
investments by Government/private companies
Negative Unable to recover from low in the stable economic environment, adverse
government policies affecting the business fundamentals and global challenges
(currency headwinds and unfavorable policies implemented by global industrial
institutions) and any significant increase in commodity prices affecting profitability.
Right Quality
Positive Sector leader, Strong management bandwidth, Strong financial track-record,
Healthy Balance sheet/cash flows, differentiated product/service portfolio and
Good corporate governance.
Neutral Macro slowdown affecting near term growth profile, Untoward events such as
natural calamities resulting in near term uncertainty, Company specific events
such as factory shutdown, lack of positive triggers/events in near term, raw
material price movement turning unfavourable
Negative Weakening growth trend led by led by external/internal factors, reshuffling of
key management personal, questionable corporate governance, high commodity
prices/weak realisation environment resulting in margin pressure and detoriating
balance sheet
Right Valuation
Positive Strong earnings growth expectation and improving return ratios but valuations
are trading at discount to industry leaders/historical average multiples, Expansion
in valuation multiple due to expected outperformance amongst its peers and
Industry up-cycle with conducive business environment.
Neutral Trading at par to historical valuations and having limited scope of expansion in
valuation multiples.
Negative Trading at premium valuations but earnings outlook are weak; Emergence of
roadblocks such as corporate governance issue, adverse government policies
and bleak global macro environment etc warranting for lower than historical
valuation multiple.
Source: Sharekhan Research
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