Professional Documents
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India I Equities
Company Update
Change in Estimates Target Reco
6 August 2018
and the mortgage business (more servicing-driven and high growth currently
but has exhibited volatility in the past). Margins, on the other hand, moved to Estimates revision (%) FY19e FY20e
12.7% in Q1, driven by currency, operational improvements and fixed cost Sales ($) (2.7) (1.8)
leverage. The margin is likely to maintain its upward trajectory with the EBITDA 16.5 15.2
company guiding to better margins in H2 FY19. PAT 6.5 6.0
Top client faltering, but growth targets intact. Firstsource is facing some
challenges with its top client in terms of revenue shortfall (FY18 revenue was Relative price performance
$150m, FY19 estimated at $132m) of ~$18m-20m (~3.5% of FY18 revenue). 85
This will be covered completely by growth in new accounts and the company 75 FSOL
can still deliver ~4-5% growth in dollar terms. Also, revenue per employee is 65
`on an upswing and may turn out to be its biggest margin lever in FY19 and 55
FY20. 45
35
Raising estimates, target price; retaining a Buy. We raise our target to `80 25
Sensex
(13x FY20e EPS, same as before), the multiple reflecting return to growth and
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superior execution on the margin side. Risks: M&A-driven growth and great
dependence on a few large deals. Source: Bloomberg
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
certifications are present in the Appendix.
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FSOL 132 131
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Result Highlights
Q1 FY19 Results at a Glance
Factsheet
Fig 9 – Revenue
Q1 FY18 Q2 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY19
North America 53 52 54 56 54
The UK 41 45 45 43 45
India 6 3 1 1 1
APAC (RoTW) 0 0 0 0 0
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
BFSI 27 29 29 31 35
Telecoms 37 35 33 31 29
Life Sciences 36 36 37 38 35
Others 0 0 0 0 1
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Top client 28 29 29 27 25
Top-5 clients 47 47 48 45 43
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
India (%) 61 46 46 47 46
Abroad (%) 39 54 54 53 54
Total 25,013 19,194 19,226 18,703 18,759
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Fig 15 – Seats
Q1 FY18 Q2 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY19
Valuations
The stock trades at 12x FY20e EPS of `5.9. This, we think, is quite
attractive, given that the business is likely to match organic industry-level
growth, is already past macro-economic headwinds in the UK, and on our
fears of the impact of automation on the business not turning out to be
true in 2018.
We are giving Firstsource (a BPO company) a ~25% discount to mid-sized
generic IT-services companies, reflecting its relatively weaker balance sheet,
slower organic growth, and higher top-client and UK concentration. IT
services companies, being higher up the value chain than BPO companies,
command a higher billing rate and enjoy higher margins than BPO
companies. We still believe that, at this stage, automation threats may be
greater for BPO companies than for IT-service companies and, therefore,
BPO companies would need to transition faster to higher-value-added
services. For Firstsource, particularly, client concentration seems high, with
the top client contributing 25%, and the top-five 43%, of revenue.
Despite these factors, the risk-reward seems favourable to us at current
trading multiples. Our target price is based on a PE of 13x, which reflects
an EV/EBITDA of 10.2x.
Fig 17 – PE band
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Risks
Dependent on inorganic growth: The company is using acquisitions
and lift-out deals to accelerate revenue growth. This, though, comes
with risks associated with inorganic growth measures.
Long-term risks due to automation: We reckon that the BPO sector
might see slower-than-industry revenue growth on account of the
impact of automation on the industry.
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13 08-May-18 Buy 75 63
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