Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SUBMITTED BY:
SURAT
May 2022
1
DECLARATION
I, Shifani Motani, hereby, declare that the project “Impact of Hindenburg’s
article on selected companies of Adani group” is my own work carried out
under the guidance of Dr. Janki Mistry
I further declare that the contents of the report are authentic and specific
references have been quoted along with the secondary data for better
crosscheck and verification. Any material which has been used for the
theoretical framework has been clearly indicated duly acknowledged and
mentioned in the bibliography.
Place: Surat
Date:
_________________________
(Name of the Student)
Enrolment No -----------------------
2
Department of Business & Industrial Management
Surat
CERTIFICATE
To the best of my knowledge, this report has not been submitted to any other
university of institute for any degree or diploma award
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Finally, I also express my sincere thanks to all my friends and respondents for
their cooperation and to all those people who have, directly or indirectly,
helped me for the completion of this project.
Thank You,
Shifani Motani
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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INDEX
Declaration 2
Department Certificate 3
Acknowledgement 4
Executive Summary 5
1 Chapter 1 Introduction 7
Adani Group 8
Adani Port 9
Adani Enterprise 15
Adani Green Energy 22
Adani Power 24
Adani Transmission 28
2 Chapter 2 Theoretical Framework 30
2.1 Introduction 31
2.2 Detailed Analysis of Report 31
2.3 Key Points in the Hindenburg‘s Report on Adani 32
2.4 Various Business of Adani Group Raise 34
Allegations
2.5 Adani Group‘s Response 36
3 Chapter 3 Literature Review 38
4 Chapter 4 Research Methodology 43
What is Research Methodology? 44
4.1 Objectives 44
4.2 Methodology 44
4.3 Scope of the Study 45
4.4 Need of the Study 45
4.5 Sources of Data 46
4.6 Sampling Plan 46
4.7 Research Design 46
4.8 Limitations of the Study 47
5 Data Analysis 48
5.1 What is Event Study? 49
5.2 What is T-Test? 50
Adani Port Analysis 55
Adani Enterprise Analysis 58
Adani Green Energy Analysis 61
Adani Power Analysis 64
Adani Transmission Analysis 67
6 Findings and Conclusion 70
Bibliography 73
6
CHAPTER: 1
INTRODUCTION
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Adani Group
projects in coal, ports, cement, green energy and even edible oil. It has made the news in
India lately because of its rapid expansion in the cement industry (buying majority stake in
Ambuja Cement and ACC Ltd.) as well as news media (buying around 30% shares of
NDTV). Its owner, Mr. Gautam Adani has been one of the top 4 richest persons in the world
for some time now. The following is a list of a few of the major listed companies that come
under the Adani Group –
1. Adani Enterprises
4. Adani Power
5. Adani Transmission
7. Adani Wilmar
8. Ambuja Cement
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ADANI PORTS AND SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE
LIMITED
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (Adani Ports & SEZ;
also APSEZ) is an Indian port operator and logistics company. APSEZ is
India's largest private port operator with a network of 12 ports and terminals,
including India's first port-based SEZ at Mundra.
Operations
It holds Category 1 License for the Indian Railways that helps in pan-India
cargo movement. The trains owned by Adani Logistics were used to dispatch
30,000 tonnes of food grains to feed over 60 lakh citizens across the states
of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, West Bengal, and Maharashtra, during the
2020 COVID-19 lockdown.
APSEZ provides dredging and reclamation solutions, primarily for port and
harbour construction.The Adani Group started investing in developing a
dredging fleet in 2005. As of 2018, APSEZ operated a fleet of 19 dredgers, the
largest capital dredging fleet in India.
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Private equity firm Warburg Pincus acquired a 0.49% stake in Adani Ports
for ₹800 crore (US$100 million) on 7 March 2021.
In April 2022, it was announced that APSEZ (through its subsidiary, The
Adani Harbour Services Ltd.) had acquired the third-party marine services
provider, Ocean Sparkle Ltd.
In July 2022, APSEZ alongside the Gadot Group won the privatisation bid
for Israel's Port of Haifa for US$1.18 billion. Where Adani Ports and Gadot
Group respectively hold 70%:30% of the shares.
Mundra Port
Since 2013, Mundra Port is India's largest private commercial port and hosts
the world's largest coal import terminal. Mundra Port was known for
introducing technological advancements that led to a high level of automation
to enhance the efficiency of cargo handling.
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As of August 2016, approximately 20,000 ships had docked at Mundra without
a single accident representing the high safety standards implemented by the
port authorities. Mundra Port had two single-point mooring (SPM) facilities to
evacuate crude oil.Efforts to build a new container terminal in Mundra in
partnership with French shipping giant CMA Terminals were underway as of
January 2017.
Krishnapatnam Port
Hazira Port
Dhamra Port
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It features a fully integrated conveyor system for import and export, a coastal
circuit for fast cargo transit, and rapid loading silos with 4000 TPH
capacity. Situated between Haldia in West Bengal and Paradip in Odisha, the
Port is located 215 km from Bhubaneshwar. The port serves as a gateway
to Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar and the entire geopolitical region, including
the ASEAN region.
Dahej Port
Dahej Port is equipped with India's first high speed elevated triangular gallery
overload conveying system for coal transportation which reduces dust
pollution.It accommodates a Ro-Ro Jetty for project cargo movement of
9.8 km long fully integrated high-speed conveyor.
Vizag Terminal
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Mormugao Terminal
Vizhinjam Port
APSEZ won a bid with the Kerala government to construct the Vizhinjam
International Seaport in 2015. While the initial completion date was projected
for 2020 the construction has experienced multiple delays due to the COVID-
19 pandemic and cyclones.Adani sought an extension to 2024 but this led to
disputes with the Kerala government.
Kattupalli Port
Kattupalli Port lies 24 km north of Chennai Port and can handle 18 MMT
cargo,including containers, breakbulk, and project cargo.It can berth fully
loaded Capesize vessels and container vessels.It has a DPD warehouse within
the container for movement of AEO and DPD consignments and a 45,000 sq.
ft. warehouse with off-dock CFS. Kattupalli Port is connected to all
CFSs/ICDs/SEZs in Chennai for imports and exports.
Ennore Terminal
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Tuna Terminal
Tuna Port is an all-weather, berthing on arrival port with the largest coal
import terminal of 35,000 MT/Day discharge rate near Kandla Port. It has a
capacity of 2 crore (20 million) tonnes per year and can handle 1,30,00 DWT
vessels at berth.It can handle all kinds of dry bulk and break bulk cargo
including coal, fertilizer, agri-products, steel cargo, and minerals, and it is
equipped with a fully integrated high-speed conveyor system. It is connected
to National Highway (NH) 8A.
Dighi Port
Dighi Port was acquired by APSEZ in February 2021, with the intention of
being an alternative to the Jawaharlal Nehru Port, in Navi Mumbai.
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ADANI ENTERPRISE
Adani Enterprises Limited is an Indian multinational publicly listed holding
company and a part of Adani Group. It is headquartered in Ahmedabad and
primarily involved in mining and trading of coal and iron ore. Through its
various subsidiaries, it also has business interests in airport operations, edible
oils, road, rail and water infrastructure, data centres, and solar manufacturing,
among others.
History
The company was incorporated in 1993 under the name Adani Exports
Limited. It mainly deals with the group's integrated resources management,
power trading, and natural resources businesses on a standalone basis. Its
general purpose is to act as an in-house incubator for Adani Group's new
businesses until they become self-sustainable.
Subsidiaries
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Adani Airport Holdings
Adani Cement
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Adani ConneX
Adani ConneX was launched in 2021 as a 50:50 joint venture with Edge
ConneX to develop a network of hyper scale data centres in India, starting
with Chennai, Navi Mumbai, Noida, Visakhapatnam and Hyderabad. In 2022,
AdaniConneX announced that it was building a hyper scale data center
in Kolkata's Bengal Silicon Valley tech hub.
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Adani Mining
Adani Enterprises operates its mines in India, Indonesia and Australia, and
supplies coal to Bangladesh, China, and some countries in Southeast Asia. It
has a coal mine in Bunyu, North Kalimantan, Indonesia, which produced
3.9 Mt of coal in 2016–17. The Group has made the largest investment by an
Indian company in Australia at the controversial Carmichael coal mine in
the Galilee Basin, Queensland. Development of this mine is as of 2020 the
subject of a court challenge to the Australian Government over its lack of
adherence to environmental legislation.
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Adani Road Transport
Adani Shipping
Adani Solar
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Adani Water
Adani Wilmar
The company went public in January 2022 with an initial public offering, after
which Adani Enterprises and Wilmar International continued to hold a
combined 88% stake in Adani Wilmar.
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undisclosed amount. Adani Enterprises had previously acquired an unspecified
minority stake in the company in March 2022. In August 2022, AMG Media
Networks announced the acquisition of a 29.18% stake in NDTV through its
subsidiary. In December 2022, it acquired an additional 8.27% stake via
a tender offer and 27.26% stake from the promoters Radhika Roy and Prannoy
Roy, to raise its total shareholding in NDTV to over 64%.
Kutch Copper
Former Subsidiaries
Former subsidiaries Adani Ports & SEZ, Adani Power and Adani
Transmission were demerged from Adani Enterprises in 2015. Adani Green
Energy and Adani Gas were demerged in 2018.
Investments
In 2021, Adani Enterprises acquired a 20% stake in the online travel
company Clear trip. Adani Enterprises acquired a 49% stake in Maharashtra
Border Check Post Network, a subsidiary of the publicly-listed Sadbhav
Infrastructure Projects.
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ADANI GREEN ENERGY
Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) is an Indian renewable energy company
headquartered in Ahmedabad, Gujarat. It is owned by Indian
conglomerate Adani Group. The company operates Kamuthi Solar Power
Project, one of the largest solar photovoltaic plants in the world.
History
During the initial days of existence, AGEL and Inox Wind together established
a 20 MW capacity wind power project in Lahori, Madhya Pradesh. Also,
AGEL bought Inox Wind's 50 MW wind power project at Dayapar village
in Kutch. The project was conceived by the latter when it won a Solar Energy
Corporation of India's capacity bids for wind power projects connected to
the National Grid.
In 2017, the company took the complete control of overall solar energy
portfolio of Adani Enterprises and got itself listed at National Stock Exchange
of India and Bombay Stock Exchange.
In 2022, Adani Green Energy Limited had a market cap of Rs. 3, 26,635.42
crore.
Operations
Currently, the company manages 5,290 MW of wind energy and solar power
plants including 46 operational projects in 11 states of India namely Uttar
Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Maharashtra, Gujarat, MadhyaPradesh, Chhattisga
rh, AndhraPradesh, Karnataka, TamilNadu, and Telangana. AGEL has a
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current project portfolio of ~5.29 GW and an operational capacity of ~2.36
GW.
In May 2020, AGEL won the world's largest solar bid worth $6 billion by
the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI). The bid entails AGEL building
an 8000 MW photovoltaic power plant.
Green Bonds
In late 2019, AGEL became the first Indian company to offer investment-
grade US dollar green bonds worth US$362.5 million to foreign investors. The
bonds got listed on Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX-
ST) on 15 October 2019 and it will mature on the same date in 2039.
Acquisitions
In early 2020, French energy company Total S.A. entered into a binding
agreement with AGEL for the investment of US$510 million to acquire a 20%
stake in the latter.
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ADANI POWER
Adani Power is an Indian power and energy company which is a part of Adani
Group. Based in Khodiyar in Ahmedabad, it is a private thermal power
producer, with a capacity of 12,450 MW and operates a mega solar plant of 40
MW at Naliya, Bitta, Kutch, and Gujarat.
History
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2014 – On 3 April 2014, the company announced the commissioning of the
fourth unit of 660 MW at its power plant at Tiroda in Maharashtra, thus
emerging as the largest private power producer in India, with an overall
installed capacity of 9,280 MW. The fifth unit was commissioned later in
2014.
2015 – The company announced the completion of acquisition of Udupi Power
Corporation Limited on 11 May 2015. With this, Adani Power has a total
commissioned capacity of 10,440 MW, making the company the largest
private power producer in India.
2017 – In 2017, one of its units created a national record by continuously
operating for 600 days.
2019 – In the fourth quarter ended on 31 March 2019, Adani Power reported a
consolidated net profit of ₹634.64 crores. In the same fiscal the previous year,
the company had reported a consolidated net loss of ₹653.25 crore.
Operations
Built by Adani
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Taken over by Adani
Udupi Power Plant: 1,200 MW (2×600 MW) coal-based thermal power plant at
Padubidri, Udupi district, Karnataka.[33] Bo from Lanco Infratech in August
2014 for ₹ 6,000 crores.
Raikheda Thermal Power Station: On 2 August 2019, the firm completed the
acquisition of GMR Chhattisgarh Energy Ltd. (GCEL) which owns and
operates a power plant in Raikheda village in Raipur. The acquisition was
concluded at an enterprise valuation of ₹ 3,530 crore. This addition has led to
an increase in APL's total capacity to 12,450 MW. With this, APL has become
the largest private sector thermal power producer.
Avantha Korba West Power Station: The firm got approval from NCLT in 07-
Sep-2019 to takeover this plant.
Adani Green House has rallied 29 percent after the announcement that the
company has commissioned a 75MW wind power project.
On 19th Aug 2022 Adani power announced it will acquire DB Power Limited
(DBPL) from Dainik Bhaskar Group for around Rs 7,017 crore, the company
revealed in a regulatory filing.
Future Projects
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1600 MW Godda Power Project in Jharkhand at a cost of approximately Rs
14,000 crores.
Awards
The company has won many awards and recognition. In 2017, it was named
the Most Innovative Young Power Professional by IPPAI (Independent Power
Producers Association of India) at the 18th Regulators & Policymakers
Retreat. In 2017, CSR Works International with support of British Chamber of
Commerce and High Commission of Canada recognized the firm for best
sustainability reporting in Asia, in Singapore. In 2018, it received the
Recognition for Best Environment Management practices by Srishti
Publications.
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ADANI TRANSMISSION
Adani Transmission Ltd is an electric power transmission company
headquartered in Ahmedabad. Currently, it is one of the largest private sector
power transmission companies operating in India. As of July 2020, the
company operates a cumulative network of 12,200 circuit kilometres, and
more than 3,200 circuit kilometres are under various stages of construction.
History
In 2016, ATL further acquired the GMR Group‘s transmission assets in the
state of Rajasthan — the Maru Transmission Services Ltd (MTSL) and
Aaravalli Transmission Services Ltd (ATSL).[9] In the same year, the company
also acquired Reliance Infrastructure's transmission assets of the Western
Region System Strengthening Scheme (WRSSS).
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This resulted in the founding of Adani Mumbai Electricity Limited, a 100%
wholly owned subsidiary of ATL which currently serves more than 3 million
consumers across a license area of approximately 400 square kilometers in the
city of Mumbai.
In July 2020, the company signed definitive agreements with Kalpataru Power
Transmission (KPTL) for acquiring Alipurduar Transmission. adding 650
circuit kilometers in its network from the state of Bihar and West Bengal.
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CHAPTER: 2
THEORETICAL
FRAMEWORK
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2.1 INTRODUCTION
Note: Short selling basically involves borrowing an asset now in order to sell
it, only to buy it back at a lower price and then return the borrowed asset. The
view taken basically is a bearish one.
31
The Hindenburg report alleges that Adani Group has used aggressive and
unconventional accounting practices to inflate its profits and understate its
debt. The report claims that the company has booked large amounts of revenue
from subsidiaries and joint ventures, which are not consolidated in its financial
statements, and that this provides a misleading picture of the company‘s
financial health and profitability. In addition to these financial concerns, the
Hindenburg report also accuses Adani Group of engaging in insider trading
and tax evasion. The report cites documents obtained from Indian government
and regulatory agencies, which it claims support these allegations.
The report also criticizes Adani Group for its environmental practices,
accusing the company of engaging in large-scale deforestation, damaging
fragile ecosystems, and polluting groundwater and air. The report claims that
Adani Group has ignored the concerns of local communities and has not
followed environmental regulations. Adani Group has strongly denied the
allegations in the Hindenburg report, calling it ―baseless and defamatory.‖
The company has pointed out that it is fully compliant with all Indian laws and
regulations, and that it operates to the highest ethical and environmental
standards. It is important to note that Hindenburg Research is a short-selling
research firm, and its reports are often critical of the companies it covers. The
firm has a vested interest in Adani Group‘s stock price declining, as it has
shorted the stock. This means that the firm stands to benefit if the stock price
falls. As a result, the allegations in the report should be treated with some
caution, and it is important to seek independent verification of the claims
made.
The following are some of the claims made by Hindenburg Research on Adani
Group –
1. Overvalued shares – The report cites data from FactSet and Hindenburg‘s own
analysis to claim that the Adani shares are highly overvalued by conventional
metrics such as P/E Ratio, Price/Sales ratio and EV/EBITDA.
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Some of the extreme cases include the P/E Ratio of Adani Enterprises being 42
times the industry average and the Price/Sales ratio of Adani Total Gas being
139.3 times the industry average of 1.0x etc.
3. Promoters pledging their stocks – This means that the promoters of the
company have taken on additional debt on the basis of the shares that they
own. As seen above, the share prices are claimed to be already high and so is
the debt – therefore, promoters pledging stocks to take on more debt is not a
healthy financial practice in such a context.
4. Doubts regarding the management team – The report claim that some
members of the management have a questionable past which includes
allegations of fraud, duty evasions, scams etc.
5. Excess promoter control of shares – It has been alleged that in addition to the
already high proportion of promoter holding in shares (close to 74% in
multiple cases), significant portions of the remaining public shares are also
controlled by shell companies that have ties with the Adani group. Many of
these companies have a large majority of their shares invested solely in firms
under the Adani Group. This may mean that in practical terms, those
companies may have worked their way around the SEBI mandate that
requires at least 25% of the shares of a listed company to be in public
shareholding. This exposes these companies to a high risk of being delisted.
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It is claimed that the delivery volume of Adani stocks may have been high
because of possible wash trading (ie. buying/selling of a share by the same or
related entities to pump up the trading volume numbers). Rumours regarding
the involvement of the noted stock manipulator Ketan Parekh have also been
raised in the Hindenburg report.
7. Inadequate compliance – The report claims that one of the firms hired to
bookrun the Adani Green Energy has had past problems with the SEBI.
Moreover, one of the independent auditors hired to audit Adani Enterprise and
Adani Total gas seems to be too small a company and comprising
professionals too young to be able to handle the auditing of such a large array
of companies.
1. Ports: The report claims that Adani‘s port business is facing intense
competition, which has led to declining profits.
3. Real Estate: The report claims that Adani‘s real estate projects have been
slow to take off, leading to losses.
5. Trading and Distribution: The report claims that Adani‘s trading and
distribution businesses are facing significant losses due to a lack of
competitiveness.
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The Hindenburg Research report has been a source of controversy in the
financial and business communities, with Adani Group denying the claims
made in the report. Despite this, the report raises important questions about the
financial performance and business practices of the Adani Group.
The report claims that the company is controlled by its founder, Gautam
Adani, to the detriment of minority shareholders. This is a common issue in
many large conglomerates, and it is important for companies to ensure that
their corporate governance practices are transparent and in line with best
practices. Another issue raised by the report is Adani‘s impact on the
environment.
The report claims that the company has a history of environmental violations
and that their proposed Carmichael coals mine in Australia is a major
environmental risk. Environmental sustainability is a growing concern for
companies around the world, and it is important for companies to take their
environmental responsibilities seriously.
Adani Group‘s response to the Report Adani Group has disputed the claims
made in the Hindenburg Research report and has taken legal action against the
research firm. The company has issued several statements in response to the
report, denying the allegations and defending its business practices.
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Adani Group has emphasized its commitment to responsible business practices
and its record of delivering sustainable and socially responsible projects. The
company has stated that it is fully compliant with all applicable laws and
regulations and that it is committed to operating in an environmentally
responsible manner.
Adani has also argued that the Hindenburg Research report is based on false
and misleading information and that it is designed to damage the company‘s
reputation. The company has taken legal action against the research firm in an
effort to protect its reputation and to ensure that the public has accurate
information about its operations.
Through a twitter post on 25th January, 2023, the Adani Group said that the
report is ―a malicious combination of selective misinformation and stale,
baseless and discredited allegations that have been tested and rejected by
India‘s highest courts‖. They questioned the timing of the post (in the context
of the Adani Enterprises FPO which came on 27th January 2023 and is the
biggest FPO in India ever).
2. Regarding the issue of over-leverage, it claimed that its companies are highly
rated and are subject to scrutiny and monitoring by the government anyway,
so there is not much scope for irregularities here – overall, promoter leverage
is less than 4% of promoter holdings.
3. Of its 9 publicly listed entities, 8 are audited by the Big 6, except Adani Total
Gas, which is also set to follow the same route in auditing.
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There were several other points raised by the rebuttal report from the Adani
Group. However, they also mentioned that they will be looking at legal
avenues in order to take remedial and punitive measures against those who
casted these allegations on the Adani Group.
Hindenburg Research in turn mentioned that if legal actions do take place, they
too will demand the release of several important documents to the public and
judicial eye during the trial. In other words, when it comes to its Adani Report
Hindenburg has chosen to stand by it so far.
37
CHAPTER: 3
LITERATURE
REVIEW
38
1. September 2020-Nikola
Among dozens of other issues, Hindenburg pointed out that Nikola‘s ―In
Motion‖ promotional video for its Nikola One semi was nothing more than the
truck being rolled down a hill in the Utah desert, a claim the company later
admitted. Nikola Founder and Executive Chairman Trevor Milton promptly
resigned from the company, as mentioned on Hindenburg website.
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3. June 2020-Genius Brands
Hindenburg wrote that Genius Brands, then trading at about $6.86 per share,
would soon become a $1.50 stock due to extreme retail euphoria and pending
dilution. By the end of July, just under two months later, shares were trading at
$1.50, a decline of almost 80%.
Months after Hindenburg report, Ernst and Young withdrew as auditor after
refusing to issue an audit opinion upon identifying accounting issues and
undisclosed related party transactions. Shares fell more than 90%.
40
SEC on the same day as Predictive Technologies in late April, as mentioned
on Hindenburg website.
41
Following Hindenburg report, exposé were written by the Boston Globe, the
New York Times, and NBC News (complete with hidden camera footage and
customer testimonials) that supported red flags Hindenburg originally raised in
Hindenburg report.
42
CHAPTER: 4
RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY
43
RESEARCH is a ‗careful investigation or inquiry especially through search for
new facts in any branch of knowledge‘.
4.1 Objectives
4.2 Methodology
This study has systematically organized and analysed the data. Inferential
analysis is made to derive results in terms of the objectives of the study.
44
4.3 Scope of Study
Examining the content of the article and its potential impact on the Adani
Group's reputation, investor sentiment, and financial performance.
Analysing market data, such as stock prices and trading volumes, to determine
if there was a significant change in the Adani Group's valuation following the
publication of the article.
Assessing any regulatory or legal action taken against the Adani Group in
response to the article, such as investigations by government agencies or
lawsuits filed by investors.
Conducting surveys or focus groups to gauge public perception of the Adani
Group before and after the publication of the article.
Comparing the Adani Group's performance and reputation with those of other
companies in the same industry to determine if the impact of the article was
unique to the Adani Group or a broader trend.
It is important to note that the specific scope of the study may depend on the
research questions being asked and the data that is available for analysis.
45
It could analyse the statements made by the company in response to the
allegations and the reactions of investors, regulators, and other stakeholders.
Overall, a study on the impact of Hindenburg's article on the Adani Group
would provide valuable insights into the effects of short-selling research
reports on companies and their stakeholders.
Secondary data
Secondary data were used in this study to explain the theoretical background
of the subject focused. The secondary data were collected from relevant
websites, reports.
A month before and after the release of Hindenburg‘s article on Adani group.
46
4.8 Limitations of the Study
Limited scope: The study may only examine a narrow aspect of the impact of
Hindenburg's article on the Adani Group, such as stock prices or public
perception. It may not consider other factors that could also affect the Adani
Group's operations or reputation.
Data availability: The study may face challenges in obtaining reliable and
comprehensive data on the Adani Group's financial performance or other
metrics before and after the publication of the article.
Causation vs. correlation: The study may not be able to establish a clear causal
link between the publication of Hindenburg's article and any changes in the
Adani Group's performance or reputation. Other factors, such as global
economic conditions or regulatory changes, could also have contributed to any
observed changes.
Bias: The study may be influenced by the researchers' own biases or interests,
potentially leading to selective data analysis or interpretation.
Generalizability: The study may only examine the impact of Hindenburg's
article on the Adani Group, and its findings may not be generalizable to other
companies or industries.
47
CHAPTER: 5
DATA ANALYSIS
48
5.1. What is event study?
Event studies that use time in this way are often employed in the insurance
industry to estimate mortality and compute life tables. In business, these types
of studies may instead be used to forecast how much time is left before a piece
of equipment fails. Alternatively, they could be used to predict how long until
a company goes out of business.
Theoretically, a stock price takes into account all available information and
expectations about the future. According to this theory, it is possible to analyze
the effect of a specific event on a company by looking at the associated impact
on the company's stock. The market model is the most common analysis used
for an event study. This methodology looks at the actual returns of a baseline
reference market and tracks the correlation of a company's stock with the
baseline.
The market model monitors the abnormal returns on the specific day of an
event, studying the stock's returns and comparing them to the normal or
average returns. The difference is the actual impact on the company.
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This technique can be used over time, analysing consecutive days to
understand how an event affects a stock over time. An event study can reveal
greater market trends or patterns. If the same type of model is used to analyse
multiple events of the same type, it can predict how stock prices typically
respond to a specific event.
Examples:
How can we be sure that the return on event day is due to this event and not
something else that also happened on the same day?
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T-tests are used when the data sets follow a normal distribution and have
unknown variances, like the data set recorded from flipping a coin 100 times.
The t-test is a test used for hypothesis testing in statistics and uses the t-
statistic, the t-distribution values, and the degrees of freedom to determine
statistical significance.
Calculating a t-test requires three fundamental data values. They include the
difference between the mean values from each data set, or the mean difference,
the standard deviation of each group, and the number of data values of each
group.
This comparison helps to determine the effect of chance on the difference, and
whether the difference is outside that chance range. The t-test questions
whether the difference between the groups represents a true difference in the
study or merely a random difference.
The t-test produces two values as its output: t-value and degrees of freedom.
The t-value, or t-score, is a ratio of the difference between the mean of the two
sample sets and the variation that exists within the sample sets.
The numerator value is the difference between the mean of the two sample
sets. The denominator is the variation that exists within the sample sets and is
a measurement of the dispersion or variability.
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Two-sample T-Test with unequal variance
Two-sample T-Test with unequal variance can be applied when (1) the
samples are normally distributed, (2) the standard deviation of both
populations are unknown and assume to be unequal, and the (3) sample is
sufficiently large (over 30).
To compare the height of two male populations from the United States and
Sweden, a sample of 30 males from each country is randomly selected and the
measured heights are provided in Table 3.
Step 1
Hypothesis
Step 2
Method
52
Equation
Step 3
Results
53
Statistical Interpretation of the Results
We reject the null hypothesis because the p-value (0.0127) is smaller than the
level of significance (0.05). [p-value is the observed probability of the null
hypothesis to happen, which is calculated from the sample data using an
appropriate method, two-sample T-Test for equal variance in this case]
Step 4
Contextual Conclusion
The next question would be then who is taller or shorter. Both the sample and
the population data show that the Swedish male population is taller than the
US male population. However, the alternative hypothesis was written as ―Not
Equal.‖ Therefore, to test that the Swedish male population is taller than the
US male population or the US male population is shorter than the Swedish
male population. The hypothesis is written as below.
54
ADANI PORTS
RETURN= Current
Price/Previous Abnormal
Date Price Price-1 Return
02/24/2023 558.9 0.012775211 0.019974
02/23/2023 551.85 0.008682142 0.015881
02/22/2023 547.1 -0.061899863 -0.0547
02/21/2023 583.2 0.006037606 0.013237
02/20/2023 579.7 0.001814568 0.009014
02/17/2023 578.65 0.002512128 0.009711
02/16/2023 577.2 0.014322116 0.021521
02/15/2023 569.05 0.006989913 0.014189
02/14/2023 565.1 0.020588766 0.027788
02/13/2023 553.7 -0.05180238 -0.0446
02-10-2023 583.95 0.002833591 0.010033
02-09-2023 582.3 -0.028285357 -0.02109
02-08-2023 599.25 0.083340866 0.09054
02-07-2023 553.15 0.014116784 0.021316
02-06-2023 545.45 0.093414854 0.100614
02-03-2023 498.85 0.078711212 0.08591
02-02-2023 462.45 -0.066040594 -0.05884
02-01-2023 495.15 -0.191789766 -0.18459
01/31/2023 612.65 0.026214405 0.033414
01/30/2023 597 8.37591E-05 0.007283
01/27/2023 596.95 -0.162939073 -0.15574
01/25/2023 713.15 -0.063124015 -0.05592
01/24/2023 761.2 -0.010207399 -0.00301
01/23/2023 769.05 -0.00697269 0.000226
01/20/2023 774.45 -0.002061723 0.005137
01/19/2023 776.05 -0.013286713 -0.00609
01/18/2023 786.5 0.00223001 0.009429
01/17/2023 784.75 -0.002922305 0.004277
01/16/2023 787.05 -0.009563959 -0.00236
01/13/2023 794.65 0.002143893 0.009343
01-12-2023 792.95 -0.004394501 0.002805
01-11-2023 796.45 6.27825E-05 0.007262
01-10-2023 796.4 -0.024796424 -0.0176
01-09-2023 816.65 0.013087706 0.020287
01-06-2023 806.1 -0.016471449 -0.00927
01-05-2023 819.6 0.011851852 0.019051
01-04-2023 810 -0.012736913 -0.00554
01-03-2023 820.45 -0.002249787 0.004949
55
01-02-2023 822.3 0.005133847 0.012333
12/30/2022 818.1 -0.001769264 0.00543
12/29/2022 819.55 0.011353119 0.018552
12/28/2022 810.35 -0.008321606 -0.00112
12/27/2022 817.15 0.013770858 0.02097
12/26/2022 806.05
EXPECTED
RETURN= -0.007199158
Hypothesis:
H0: There is no significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
H1: There is a significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
0.01278 0.01997
Mean -0.00767 -0.00048
Variance 0.002496 0.002496
Observations 42 42
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 82
t Stat -0.66037
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.255432
t Critical one-tail 1.663649
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.510864
t Critical two-tail 1.989319
56
INTERPRETATION
The data provided includes the means, variances, and number of observations for both
groups, as well as the hypothesized mean difference and degrees of freedom.
The p-value for a one-tailed test is 0.255432, and for a two-tailed test is 0.510864.
The t-critical value for a one-tailed test with 82 degrees of freedom and a significance level of
0.05 is 1.663649, and for a two-tailed test is 1.989319.
Based on the p-values and t-critical values, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that the two
population means are equal.
57
ADANI ENTERPRISE
RETURN=
Current
Price/Previous Abnormal
Date Price Price-1 Return
58
01-04-2023 3,827.05 -0.00102 0.019278
01-03-2023 3,830.95 -0.00267 0.017628
01-02-2023 3,841.20 -0.00444 0.015851
12/30/2022 3,858.35 0.012531 0.032827
12/29/2022 3,810.60 0.003397 0.023693
12/28/2022 3,797.70 0.007441 0.027737
12/27/2022 3,769.65 0.014233 0.034529
12/26/2022 3,716.75
Expected
Return= -0.0203
Hypothesis:
H0: There is no significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
H1: There is a significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
-0.04846 -0.02816
Mean -0.01963 0.000671
Variance 0.006762 0.006762
Observations 42 42
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 82
t Stat -1.13106
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.130664
t Critical one-tail 1.663649
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.261329
t Critical two-tail 1.989319
59
INTERPRETATION
The data provided includes the means, variances, and number of observations for both
groups, as well as the hypothesized mean difference and degrees of freedom.
The p-value for a one-tailed test is 0.130664, and for a two-tailed test is 0.261329.
The t-critical value for a one-tailed test with 82 degrees of freedom and a significance level of
0.05 is 1.663649, and for a two-tailed test is 1.989319.
Based on the p-values and t-critical values, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that the two
population means are equal.
60
ADANI GREEN ENERGY
RETURN=
Current
Price/Previous Abnormal
Date Price Price-1 Return
61
01-03-2023 1,892.95 0.00225 0.031656
01-02-2023 1,888.70 -0.02231 0.007095
12/30/2022 1,931.80 0.011281 0.040687
12/29/2022 1,910.25 0.006534 0.035939
12/28/2022 1,897.85 -0.00568 0.023721
12/27/2022 1,908.70 0.01697 0.046375
12/26/2022 1,876.85
EXPECTED
RETURN= -0.02941
Hypothesis:
H0: There is no significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
H1: There is a significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
-0.04999 -0.02058
Mean -0.02892 0.00049
Variance 0.002896 0.002896
Observations 42 42
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 82
t Stat -2.50386
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.007134
t Critical one-tail 1.663649
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.014268
t Critical two-tail 1.989319
62
INTERPRETATION
The data provided includes the means, variances, and number of observations for both
groups, as well as the hypothesized mean difference and degrees of freedom.
The p-value for a one-tailed test is 0.007134, and for a two-tailed test is 0.014268.
The t-critical value for a one-tailed test with 82 degrees of freedom and a significance level of
0.05 is 1.663649, and for a two-tailed test is 1.989319.
Based on the p-values and t-critical values, we reject the null hypothesis that the two
population means are equal.
63
ADANI POWER
RETURN=
Current
Price/Previous Abnormal
Date Price Price-1 Return
64
01-03-2023 294.75 -0.0114 0.002479
01-02-2023 298.15 -0.00467 0.009209
12/30/2022 299.55 -0.01626 -0.00237
12/29/2022 304.5 0.003295 0.017177
12/28/2022 303.5 0.049991 0.063874
12/27/2022 289.05 0.049946 0.063828
12/26/2022 275.3
EXPECTED
RETURN= -0.01388
Hypothesis:
H0: There is no significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
H1: There is a significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
-0.04989 -0.036
Mean -0.01303 0.000857
Variance 0.001346 0.001346
Observations 42 42
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 82
t Stat -1.73386
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.043351
t Critical one-tail 1.663649
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.086701
t Critical two-tail 1.989319
65
INTERPRETATION
The data provided includes the means, variances, and number of observations for both
groups, as well as the hypothesized mean difference and degrees of freedom.
The p-value for a one-tailed test is 0.043351, and for a two-tailed test is 0.086701.
The t-critical value for a one-tailed test with 82 degrees of freedom and a significance level of
0.05 is 1.663649, and for a two-tailed test is 1.989319.
Based on the p-values and t-critical values, we can reject the null hypothesis that the two
population means are equal at a one-tailed significance level of 0.05. However, at a two-
tailed significance level of 0.05, we do not have sufficient evidence to conclude that there is a
significant difference between the means of the two groups.
66
ADANI TRANSMISSION
RETURN=
Current
Price/Previous Abnormal
Date Price Price-1 Return
67
01-03-2023 2,576.55 0.01061 0.037675
01-02-2023 2,549.50 -0.01535 0.011713
12/30/2022 2,589.25 -0.03006 -0.003
12/29/2022 2,669.50 0.040964 0.068029
12/28/2022 2,564.45 0.025042 0.052107
12/27/2022 2,501.80 0.014456 0.041521
12/26/2022 2,466.15
EXPECTED
RETURN= -0.02707
Hypothesis:
H0: There is no significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
H1: There is a significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
-0.04995 -0.02288
Mean -0.02652 0.000545
Variance 0.002726 0.002726
Observations 42 42
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 82
t Stat -2.3756
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.009927
t Critical one-tail 1.663649
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.019853
t Critical two-tail 1.989319
68
INTERPRETATION
The data provided includes the means, variances, and number of observations for both
groups, as well as the hypothesized mean difference and degrees of freedom.
The p-value for a one-tailed test is 0.009927, and for a two-tailed test is 0.019853.
The t-critical value for a one-tailed test with 82 degrees of freedom and a significance level of
0.05 is 1.663649, and for a two-tailed test is 1.989319.
Based on the p-values and t-critical values, we reject the null hypothesis that the two
population means are equal.
69
CHAPTER: 6
FINDINGS
&
CONCLUSION
70
FINDINGS
Some possible findings of an impact study related to an article on the Adani
Group could include:
Again, the specific findings of an impact study would depend on the specific
article in question and its content.
71
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, the Hindenburg report on Adani Group raises serious concerns
about the company‘s financial and operational practices, as well as its
environmental impact. While Adani Group has strongly denied the allegations,
it is important for investors and regulators to take these concerns seriously and
to undertake a thorough investigation of the claims made in the report. The
report‘s release is a reminder of the need for increased transparency and
accountability in the business world and the importance of ensuring that
companies operate ethically and sustainably.
72
BIBLIOGRAPHY
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adani_Ports_%26_SEZ
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adani_Enterprises
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adani_Green_Energy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adani_Power
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adani_Transmission
https://www.indiatimes.com/worth/news/hindenburg-history-of-allegations-
against-companies-591988.html
https://www.theopeneducator.com/doe/hypothesis-Testing-Inferential-
Statistics-Analysis-of-Variance-ANOVA/Two-Sample-T-Test-Unequal-
Variance
https://taxguru.in/finance/complete-analysis-hindenburgs-report-adani-
group.html
https://www.angelone.in/blog/hindenburg-report-on-adani-heres-what-you-
need-to-know
https://www.investing.com/equities/adani-transmission-ltd
https://www.investing.com/equities/adani-power
https://www.investing.com/equities/adani-green-energy
https://www.investing.com/equities/adani-enterprises
https://www.investing.com/equities/mundra-port-special-eco.-zone
73
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