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Section 6.1
Statistical Literacy and Critical Thinking
1 No, we should not expect to get exactly heads. As shown in Figure 6.1,
you would get exactly 50 heads only about 8% of the time. However, if
the coin is fair, you should expect to get a result that is fairly
close to 50 heads.
2 A result is statistically significant if it is unlikely to have
occurred by chance.
3 Statistical significance applies to samples. If you conducted a census
that allowed you to determine the actual value of a population
parameter, then there would be no need to quantify the probability that
the value is correct, since it would have been measured. In contrast,
when you measure a sample statistic, there is always some probability
that it does not accurately reflect the true population parameter, and
the concept of statistical significance is designed to quantify that
uncertainty.
4 Statistical significance at the 0.05 level means that there is a 0.05
(or 5%, or 1 in 20) or less probability that the result occurred by
chance, and statistical significance at the 0.01 level means that there
is a 0.01 (or 1%, or 1 in 100)or less probability that the result
occurred by chance. A result that is statistically significant at the
0.05 level is not automatically also significant at the 0.01 level,
because a probability of 0.05 or less does not necessarily mean that
there is a 0.01 or less chance. However, a result that is statistically
significant at the 0.01 level is automatically also significant at the
0.05 level, because a probability of 0.01 or less is also less than a
0.05 chance.
5 This statement does not make sense. The term statistical significance
has a particular meaning with regard to the probability that results
occurred by chance; it does not simply mean that a topic is important.
6 This statement makes sense. Statistical significance is a measure of
the probability of the observed difference happening by chance. If the
probability of these differences happening is almost 50%, it would be
likely to have happened by chance!
7 This statement does not make sense. The question is not whether we
expect to get exactly 501 girls, but whether the result differs
significantly from what would be expected to occur by pure chance,
given that we always expect some distribution of results around the
most likely value. Instead of focusing on the probability of exactly
501 girls, we should include the probability of any other outcomes that
are more extreme, that is, should consider the probability of 501 or
more girls.
8 This statement does not make sense. At any level of statistical
significance, there is always some probability that the result is
incorrect.
Section 6.2
Statistical Literacy and Critical Thinking
2 The notation P(A) means the probability that event A will occur. We
often denote events by letters or symbols. The range of possible values
for P(A) is from 0 to 1 (inclusive), with 0 meaning there is no chance
that event A will occur and 1 meaning it is certain that event A will
occur.
3 The theoretical method is based on the assumption that all outcomes are
equally likely and relies on the known probabilities of individual
outcomes. The relative frequency method uses past data to make a
prediction about a future probability. The subjective method bases
probability on intuition and judgment. Examples will vary.
4 A probability distribution represents the probabilities of all possible
events. It can be displayed using a table with two columns (events and
probability of those events) or a graph or a formula.
5 This statement makes sense. The four different outcomes are HTTT, THTT,
TTHT, TTTH.
6 This statement makes sense. There are no months with more than 31 days,
so there is no chance of selecting such a month at random.
7 This statement makes sense. Subjective probabilities are based on
intuition, and it’s certainly reasonable to think that there is a 50%
chance that calculator batteries will need to be replaced during the
next 3 years.
8 This statement does not make sense. The two possibilities are
complements and therefore must always total to 1, but that does not
mean they are each 1/2.
9 There are eight possible outcomes: GGG, GGB, GBG, BGG, GBB, BGB, BBG,
BBB. Only one outcome (GGG) corresponds to the event of three girls:
P(all girls) = 1/8, or 0.125.
10 There are 16 possible outcomes: GGGG, GGGB, GGBG, GBGG, BGGG, GGBB,
GBGB, GBBG, BGGB, BBGG, BGBG, GBBB, BGBB, BBGB, BBBG, BBBB. There are 6
possible outcomes that include two boys and two girls, taking into
account birth order: P(2 boys and 2 girls) = 6/16, or 0.375.
11 3/4, assuming that heads and tails are equally likely to occur. There
are four possible outcomes (HH, TH, HT, TT), and only three of them
include one head or two heads.
12 1/2, assuming all sides of die are equally likely to be rolled. There
are six numbers, and half of them are odd.
13 30/365 = 6/73, or 0.0822, assuming that the selection is random in the
sense that all of the 365 days have the same chance of being selected.
14 1/5, or 0.2, assuming that the guess is random in the sense that all
five possible answers have the same chance of being selected.
15 4/52 = 1/13, assuming that each card is equally likely to be drawn and
because there are four aces in the deck of 52 cards.
16 1/7, assuming that births on each day of week are equally likely.
17 1/365, assuming that births on the 365 days are equally likely.
18 1/2, or 0.5, assuming that heads and tails are equally likely to occur.
Each coin toss is independent of the tosses before it, and the
probability is unaffected by prior information.
19 1/2, or 0.5, assuming that boys and girls are equally likely. Each new
birth is independent of the preceding births, and the probability is
unaffected by prior information.
20 6/6 = 1, assuming that each face of the die is equally likely (a fair
die). Since the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, any roll
would have a result less than 10.
21 P(day of week doesn’t have a “y”) = 0/7 = 0.
22 P(day of week has a “d”) = 7/7 = 1.
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
76 CHAPTER 6, PROBABILITY IN STATISTICS
Result Probability
Three girls 1/8 = 0.125
Two girls, one boy 3/8 = 0.375
One girl, two boys 3/8 = 0.375
Three boys 1/8 = 0.125
Total 1.000
Result Probability
Four girls 1/16 = 0.0625
Three girls, one boy 4/16 = 0.2500
Two girls, two boys 6/16 = 0.3750
One girl, three boys 4/16 = 0.2500
Four boys 1/16 = 0.0625
Total 1.0000
39
Outcomes for Tossing Four Fair Coins
H H H H HHHH 1/16
H H H T HHHT 1/16
H H T H HHTH 1/16
H H T T HHTT 1/16
H T H H HHTH 1/16
H T H T HTHT 1/16
H T T H HTTH 1/16
H T T T HTTT 1/16
T H H H THHH 1/16
T H H T THHT 1/16
T H T H THTH 1/16
T H T T THTT 1/16
T T H H TTHH 1/16
T T H T TTHT 1/16
T T T H TTTH 1/16
T T T T TTTT 1/16
Section 6.3
Statistical Literacy and Critical Thinking
1 The law of large numbers states that if a process is repeated through many
trials, the proportion of the trials in which event A occurs will be close
to the probability P(A). It does not apply to a single trial (observation or
experiment), or even to small numbers of trials, but only to a large number
of trials.
2 With the relatively small number of 10 tosses, the probability of getting a
result slightly away from the most likely outcome of 5 is still quite high.
However, when the number of tosses is 1000, the outcomes will be tightly
distributed around the most likely outcome of 500, so a result of 600 would
be highly improbable.
3 The expected value of a variable is the weighted average of all its possible
values. It is computed using the formula given in the text. Because it is an
average, we should expect a value close to the expected value to occur only
when there are a large number of events, so that the law of large numbers
comes into play.
4 The gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that a streak of bad luck makes
a person “due” for a streak of good luck (or that a streak of good luck will
continue). Examples will vary.
5 This statement makes sense. Most people lose money in the lottery, so the
expected value, which represents what you can expect to get as a return,
should be less than what you spend. Furthermore, a lottery is a business,
and good business plans are created so as to make money rather than lose
money over the long term.
6 This statement makes sense. For every $1 bet, the expected return is 64¢,
so this is a losing game and there is no reason to bet much money on it.
7 This statement does not make sense. All sets of three numbers have the same
probability and the same chance of winning.
8 This statement does not make sense. This is an example of the gambler’s
fallacy.
9 No, you should not expect to get exactly 250 girls since the probability of
that particular outcome is extremely small. The proportion of girls should
approach 0.5 as the number of births increases.
10 It means that the driver is “due” for an accident or a traffic citation. If
citations happen randomly, then the statement is not true. If citations
depend on driving habits, it may be a true statement.
11 For each of the possible outcomes heads or tails, your net winnings would be
(after subtracting the $10 it costs you to play) 5$ or $0. Therefore, your
expected net winnings = ($5)(1/2) + ($0)(1/2) = $2.50. It appears that you
should play. However, you are not tossing the coin, so there is a chance of
cheating occurring. It would be wise to be wary of such a bet.
12 You have a 1/10,000 chance of winning $4999 and a 9999/10,000 chance of
losing $1. Thus, your expected value is
($4999)(1/10,000) + (-$1)(9999/10,000) = -$0.50, or a loss of $0.50.
13 a) –$161 for surviving and $100,000 – $161 = $99,839 for not surviving.
b) P(surviving) = 0. 9986, P(not surviving) = 1 – P(surviving) = 0. 0014.
c) The expected value is –$161 × 0.9986+ $99,839 × 0.0014= -$21.
d) Yes, the insurance company can make a profit. The expected value for
the insurance company is $21, which indicates that the company can
expect to make an average of $21 for each such policy.
Section 6.4
Statistical Literacy and Critical Thinking
1 Travel risk is a rate that quantifies the risk involved in traveling and is
often expressed in terms of an accident rate or death rate. These rates are
in essence expected values and represent probabilities. For example, an
annual accident rate of 750 accidents per 100,000 people tells us that the
probability of a person being involved in an accident (in one year) is 750
in 100,000 = 0.0075. Travel risks must be interpreted with care, as
sometimes they are stated per 100,000 people, as above, but other times they
are stated per trip or per mile.
2 Vital statistics are data related to births and deaths. The rate of 13.2
births per 1000 people means that on average, for every 1000 people in the
population, there are 13.2 births.
3 Life expectancy is the number of additional years a person of a given age
can expect to live on average. A 30-year-old person will have a shorter life
expectancy than a 20-year-old person because the 30-year-old person is not
expected to live as many additional years as the 20-year-old.
4 It means that based on current medical and health data, a person who is 20
years old today will, on average, live to be about 80 years old. However, if
there are improvements in medical treatments and public health, today’s 20-
year-olds will live longer than that on average.
5 This statement does not make sense. Many products do this, including
automobiles.
6 This statement does not make sense. Many fewer people ride motorcycles, so
the higher death rate does not imply higher absolute numbers of deaths.
7 This statement does not make sense. Life expectancy is an average based on
current medicine and public health statistics. An individual’s life span
depends on many other factors.
8 This statement makes sense. On average, a 60-year-old has fewer remaining
years of life than a 20-year old, which means a shorter life expectancy.
9 For 2000, the fatality rate per thousand departures was 92/9035 = 0.0102;
For 2008, the fatality rate per thousand departures was 3/10,437 = 0.0003;
For 2014, the fatality rate per thousand departures was 2/8,987= 0.0002.
The year 2014 was the safest because it had the lowest number of fatalities
per 1000 departures.
10 In 2000, the fatality rate per billion passenger miles was 92/692.8 =0.1328;
In 2008, the fatality rate per billion passenger miles was 3/722.8 =0.0042;
In 2014, the fatality rate per billion passenger miles was 2/ 868.4 =0.0023.
The year 2014 was the safest because it had the lowest rate of fatalities
per billion passenger miles.
11 For 2000, the fatality rate per million passengers was 92/666.2 =0.1381;
For 2008, the fatality rate per million passengers was 3/690.2 =0.0043;
For 2014, the fatality rate per million passengers was 2/ 756.0 =0.0026.
The year 2014 was the safest because it had the lowest number of fatalities
per million passengers.
12 For 2014, the fatality rate per passenger mile is 2/ 868,400,000,000 =
0.0000000000023 (or 2.3 × 10‒12) deaths per passenger mile. This very small
number is inconvenient to write and is not easily understood.
13 The birth rate in the United States was 3,952,937/316,128,839 = 0.0125 or
12.5 births per 1000 people.
14 The birth rate in California was 503,634/38,332,521 = 0.0131 or 13.1 births
per 1000 people.
Section 6.5
Statistical Literacy and Critical Thinking
1 The student that is chosen from the statistics class for event A does
not affect the probability of choosing a female from the psychology
class for event B. Since the students are picked from different
classes, the two events are independent.
2 When the geneticists selects one pea out of the 4 peas (event G), it
will change the probability of choosing another pea from the remaining
three peas (event Y). The outcome of the first event affects the
probability of the second event, so the two events are dependent.
9 Since the births are independent, P(Fourth child is a girl) = 1/2 = 0.5.
10 P(GGBB) = P(G1 and G2 and B3 and B4) = P(G1)P(G2)P(B3)P(B4) =
(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.0625 since the four births are independent.
11 Since the digits are independent, P(12) = (1/10)(1/9) = 1/90.
12 a) When sampling with replacement, the outcomes of the first two
selections are independent, so
P(Orange1 and Orange2) = P(Orange1) × P(Orange2) = (6/123)(6/123) =
36/15129 = 0.00238.
b) When sampling without replacement, the outcomes of the first two
selections are dependent, so
P(Orange1 and Orange2) = P(Orange1) × P(Orange2 given Orange1) =
(6/123)(5/122) = 30/15006 = 0.00200
c) If hunters are being selected for a follow-up study, it doesn’t make
much sense to select the same hunter twice, so selecting without
replacement makes more sense. The probability from part (b) would be
more useful.
13 Since the selections can be repeated, the probabilities of each type remain
the same for each selection: 15/50 = 3/10 for rock, 20/50 = 2/5 for jazz,
and 15/50 = 3/10 for country.
a) P(two rock selections in a row) = (3/10) × (3/10) = 0.09
b) P(three jazz selections in a row) = (2/5) × (2/5) × (2/5) = 0.064
c) P(jazz and then country) = (2/5) × (3/10) = 0.12
d) There are 60 equally likely songs available for each selection.
No matter which song is played first, the probability that the next
one is the same is 1/50 = 0.02.
14 a) Dependent events, since the pollster will not call the same person
more than once, the first event will affect the probability of the
second event.
b) P(first male and second female) = P(first is male) × P(second is
female given first is male) = (60/100) × (40/99) = 0.242.
15 The number of people who either pled guilty or were sent to prison is
392 + 564 + 58 = 1014. Therefore, P(guilty plea or sent to prison) =
1014/1028 = 0.986.
16 The number of people who either pled not guilty or were not sent to prison
is 58 + 14 + 564 = 636. Therefore, P(not guilty plea or not sent to prison)
= 636/1028 = 0.619.
17 Altogether, 956 pled guilty out of the total of 1028.
P(First pled Guilty and Second pled Guilty) =
P(First pled Guilty) × P(Second pled Guilty given First pled Guilty) =
(956/1028)(955/1027) = 912,980/1,055,756 = 0.865.
c) There are 1049 who responded plus 11 more in the 18-21 age group who
did not respond, for a total of 1060. Thus the probability that a
person is randomly chosen who responded or is in the 18-21 age group
is 1060/1205 = 0.880.
d) There are 156 people who refused to respond plus another 202 who are
over 59 and responded. Therefore, the probability that a randomly
chosen person refused to respond or is over 59 is 358/1205 = 0.297.
30 a) There are 156 people who refused to respond.
P(both refused) = (156/1205) × (156/1205) = 0.0168.
b) There are 156 people who refused to respond.
P(both refused) = (156/1205) × (155/1204) = 0.0167.
c) The results are close but different. In practice, we can treat them as
independent events, since 2/1205 is less than 5% of the population
size.
31 a)
Positive results Negative results Total
Used marijuana 119 3 122
Didn’t use 24 154 178
marijuana
Total 143 157 300
b) The total number of applicants that had a positive result was 143.
The total number of applicants that said they didn’t use marijuana was
178. Since the applicants that had a positive result and also said
they didn’t use marijuana was counted twice, we take away 24.
P(positive or does not use) = (143 + 178 – 24)/300 = 297/300 = 0.99
c) P(both tested positive) = (143/300) × (143/300) = 0.227
d) P(both tested positive) = (143/300) × (142/299) = 0.226
e) If two job applicants are being selected for follow-up testing, it
doesn’t make much sense to select the same person twice, so selecting
without replacement makes more sense.
32 a) P(B number) = 15/75 = 0.20
b) P(two B numbers in a row) = P(B number on first draw) × P(B number on
second draw | B number on the first draw) = 15/75 × 14/74 = 0.038.
c) P(B number or O number) = 30/75 = 0.400.
d) P(B number, then a G number, then an N number) = P(B number) ×
P(G number | B number) × P(N number | B number and a G number) =
15/75 × 15/74 × 15/73 = 0.0083
e) P(five non-B numbers) = 60/75 × 59/74 × 58/73 × 57/72 × 56/71 = 0.316.
5 The total number of subjects that lied was 42 + 9 = 51. The total
number of subjects that did not lie was 15 + 32 = 47
P(lied or did not lie) = (51 + 47)/98 = 1.0
6 P(both lied) = (51/98) × (50/97) = 0.268
7 P(all three lied) = (51/98) × (50/97) × (49/96) = 0.137
8 Based on data from J. D. Power and Associates, 22% of car colors are
black, so any estimate between 0.05 and 0.35 is reasonable.
9 a) P(Not Good) = 1 – P(Good) = 1 – 0.27 = 0.73
b) P(Both good) = P(Good1 and Good2) = P(Good1)P(Good2)
=(0.27)(0.27) = 0.0729.
c) Expected number of good chips = 0.27 × 5 = 1.35.
d) P(all 5 good) = 0.275 = 0.001435. Getting 5 good ones in 5
selections has a very small probability if 27% of the chips are
good, so we would tend to believe that the true yield is greater
than 27%.
10 a) P(death due to motor vehicle crash) = 10.3/100,000 = 0.000103.
b) The probability that one person does not die in a crash is
1 – 0.000103 = 0.999897.
P(two randomly selected people do not die in vehicle crash) =
0.999897 × 0.999897 = 0.9998.
Chapter 6 Quiz