Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Forecasting Population

Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni

4th class

Chapter One: Forecasting Population

Since population is always a relevant factor is estimation future water use, it's
necessary to predict in same manner range from as little as 5 to as many 50 years.
There are many methods of population estimation, some of these methods presented
below:

1- Arithmetic methods:

The assumption in this method is that the rate of growth is constant;

mathematically the hypothesis may be expressed as

dp
= constant = Ka
dt
dp = Ka .dt ∆p
Pop.
∫ dp = ∫ Ka . dt
∆t

year

The population in the future is these estimated from.

Pt = Po + Ka .∆t …………….(1)
Where :-

Pt = pop. at some time in the future.

Po = present pop.

Ka = rate of change.

∆t = no. of years.

Ex: population of a town as obtained from census reports is as follows :-

Census year 1957 1967 1977 1987

Pop. 58000 65000 73000 81000
Estimate the population of the town as on 1992 by Arithmetic method?.

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Forecasting Population
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

Solution:-
∆p 65000−58000
Ka1 = = = 700
∆t 10

73000−65000
Ka2 = = 800
10

81000−73000
Ka3 = = 800
10

700+800+800
Ka ave. = = 767
3

Pt = Po +Ka .∆t

P(1992) = 81000+765*5

= 84835 capita

2-The uniform percentage method (Geometric method):

The hypothesis of this method assumes a rate of increase which is proportional to

population:
dp
=Ko .p
dt

ln ∆p ln Pt−ln Po
Or Ko = → Ko=
∆t ∆t

or ln Pt = ln Po +Ko .∆……..(2)
For the above mentioned example:
ln(65000)−ln(58000)
Ko1 = = 0.0114
10

ln(73000)−ln(65000)
Ko2 = = 0.0116
10

ln(81000)−ln(73000)
Ko3 = = 0.0104
10

Ko ave. = 0.0111

Ln P(1992) = ln (81000) + 0.0111 (5)= 11.3577

∴ P(1992) = 85622 capita

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Forecasting Population
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

3-The incremental increase method:-

This method determines increase in pop. by knowing the rate of change in increasing
for each period, Mathematically the hypothesis may be expressed as :

Pt =Po+(K+a).t……….(3)
Where:

Pt = pop. in the future.

Po = present pop.

K = rate of increase for each decade.

a = rate of change in increase for each decade.

For above mentioned example:

Year Pop. K(∆p) a

1957 58000
1967 65000 7000 +1000
1977 73000 8000 0.00
1987 81000 8000
K ave. =7667 a ave.= 500

P1992 = 81000+(7667 +500)*0.5

= 85083 capita.

4- logistic method:

In short term a logistic projection can be based on the equation:

𝐏𝐬𝐚𝐭.
Pt = 𝟏+𝐞𝐚+𝐛.∆𝐭 …………..(4)

a ps
Pop.
4
3
2
1

Time.

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Forecasting Population
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

2Po.P1 .P2− (Po+P2)P12

Psat. =
Po.P2−P12

Psat.−Po
a = ln( )
Po

1 Po {Psat.−Pt}
b= ln ( )
n P1 {Psat.−Po}

where :

Pt = pop. at any time in the future.

Psat = pop. of saturation level.

Po = base pop.

P1, P2 = pop. at two time periods.

n = period time (time interval between succeeding censuses).

∆t = no. of years after base year.

Ex: in two periods each of 20 years a city has growth from 18000 to 58000 and there
to 75800. Determine the expected pop, for the next 20 years.

Solution:
2(18000)(58000)(75800)−(18000+75800)(58000)2
Psat. = (18000)(75800)−(58000)2

= 77582 capita
P3=? P3

P2= 75800 Pop.

a = ln 77582 − 18000
18000 ∆t = 60 years
P1 = 58000

Po = 18000 Po

20 40 60 80
4
Time
Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Forecasting Population
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

1 18000(77582−58000)
b= ln
20 58000(77582−18000)

= -0.114
77582
P=
1.197−0.114(60)

= 77308 capita

5- The geometric ratio method:

This method determines the increase as the percentage of the increase in census.

Mathematically the hypothesis may expressed as :

Pt = Po(1+i ) t …….….(5)
i= percentage of growth rate.

t = no. of decade.

For above mentioned example:

Year Pop. ∆P ∆P%

1957 58000
1967 65000 7000 7000
∗ 100 = 12%
58000
1977 73000 8000 8000
∗ 100 = 12.3%
65000
1987 81000 8000 8000
∗ 100 = 10.90%
73000
Total = 35.2%

35.2
I= = 11.7%
3

P1992 = 81000+(1+0.117)0.5

= 85607 capita

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Forecasting Population
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

Prob. Find population of a city in 2010 by arithmetic method, geometric method,

incremental increase method, logistic method, and geometric ratio method.

Year 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980

Pop. 25000 28000 34000 42000 51000

Answer (76500, 87249, and 86993).

6-The comparative graphical extension method or culvilinear method:-

A commonly used variant of this method includes comparison of the projected growth
to the recorded growth of other cities of large size. The cities chosen for the
comparison should be as similar as possible to the city being studied.

Ex: Estimate the population of the A by using the available data of (B, C, and D) cities
for year of 2020.

City A City B City C City D

Year Pop. Year Pop. Year Pop. Year Pop.
1940 20000 1900 50000 1920 50000 1880 50000
1980 50000 1910 50700 1930 50500 1890 60700
2020 ? 1920 60500 40 50800 1900 80000
1930 60900 50 60000 1910 90000
1940 70100 60 60100 1920 90500

70100+60100+90500
∴A (2020) = = 73567 capita
3

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

Chapter Two: Water Demand

2- Factors effecting of water use:

1- Size of city.
2- Climate and location (warm or cool).
3- Industrial development.
4- Habits and living standards.
5- Parks and gardens.
6- Water quality.
7- Water pressure.
8- Cost of water.
9- Administration of water supply system.
10- Administration of sanitation.
11- Policy of metering.

2-1 Water Use for Different Purposes (Water Demand)

Municipal water demand is commonly classified according to the nature of the
user. The ordinary classifications are:
2-1-1 Domestic:
Includes houses, apartments, and other dwellings, for sanitary and culinary, and
other purposes. Its range from (75 – 380) Lcpd., about 44% of the total city
consumption.

Table (2-1): Break up of water requirements for domestic purposes

No. Description Amount of water in liters per day per head

1 Bathing 55
2 Washing of clothes 20
3 Flushing of W.C 30

4 Washing the house 10

5 Washing of utensils 10
6 Cooking 5
7 Drinking 5
Total 135 liters

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

2-1-2 Commercial:
Includes businesses, laundries, hospitals, offices, hotels, restaurants, stables,
dairies, stores, etc….are some of the trades which require large quantities of water.
The quantity of water has been related to floor area of the establishment, and for
moderate cities an average value of (15 – 25) liters per head per day may be assumed.
In cities of over 25000 persons, it's about 15% of the total city consumption.

2-1-3 Industrial:
Includes water required for any type of industry. Ice factory, textile, paper
making, dying, etc., and will required large volume of water. The quantity of water has
been related to floor area of the establishment. The quantity of water depends on type
of industry, about 24% of the total city consumption.

Table (2-2): Water requirement for some common industries

Water required
No. Industry Unit of production
Liters/unit
1 Steel finished Ton 250000
Wood pulp
2 Ton 240000
(sulphate)
3 Paper Ton 150000
4 Coke Ton 14000
5 Ice Ton 1850
6 Wool scouring Kg 10 – 12
7 Tanning Kg 60

The commercial and industrial consumption may be estimated according to floor area
of the establishment as:

Commercial or industrial consumption = 12.2 m 3/1000 m 2 of the associated floor area

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

2-1-4 Public:
Includes city buildings, schools, flushing streets, fire protection, watering of
public parks, gardening, sprinkling on roads, street fountains, markets, etc.., for which
the municipal supplier usually is not paid. The quantity of water used for such
purposes amounts to (50 - 75) Lcpd., about 9% of the total city consumption .

2-1-5 Loss and waste:

Includes water which is unaccounted for in the sense that it is not assigned to a
specific user that’s to errors in meter readings, unauthorized connections, and leaks in
the distribution system. All the water, supplied into water mains, does not reach the
consumers. Some portion of it lost in pipe lines due to defective pipe –joints, cracked
pipes, loose valves and fittings, unauthorized and illegal connections. For a well-
managed water works this quantity should not exceed 15% of the total city
consumption and it may be 8% for very good works. The quantity of water loss and
waste amounts to 40 – 150 Lcpd .

2-1-6 Fire Demand

Although the actual amount of water used for firefighting in a year is small. The
rate of use is high. The USA-Insurance Services Office calculates required flow from
the formula:

𝑻𝑭 = 𝑭 𝑿 𝑶 𝑿 (𝑿 + 𝑷) and 𝑭 = 𝟐𝟐𝟎𝑪√𝑨 … (2-1) (in SI unites)

𝑻𝑭 = 𝑭 𝑿 𝑶 𝑿 (𝑿 + 𝑷) and 𝑭 = 𝟏𝟖𝑪√𝑨 … (2-1) (in British unites)

F : required fire flow (L/min) , (gal./min)

TF : total required fire flow (L/min) , (gal./min)

C : construction factor (is a coefficient related to the type of construction).

A : is the effective floor area, typically equal to the area of the largest floor plus 50%
of all other floors, (or total floor area excluding the basement) (m2), (ft2).

O : is the occupancy factor reflecting the kinds of materials stored in the building
(ranging from 0.75 to 1.25) .

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

(X+P) : is the sum of the exposure factor and the communication factor that reflect the
proximity and exposure of the other buildings.(estimated using the median value of
1.4).

Note:

gallon = 3.78L

m2 = 10.76 ft2

Table (2-3): Construction factor C

Type of construction Construction factor C

Wood frame construction 1.5

Ordinary construction 1.0

Non combustible construction 0.8
Fire resistive construction 0.6

Table (2-4): Occupancy factor O

Combustibility class Example Oi
C-1 noncombustible Steel or concrete products storage 0.75
C-2 Limited combustible Apartments, churches, offices 0.85
C-3 Combustible Department stores, supermarkets 1.00
C-4 Free burning Auditoriums, warehouses 1.15
C-5 Rapid burning Paint shops, upholstering shops 1.25

The limitations of the USA-Insurance Services Office formula:

1- 500 ≤ F ≤ 8000 gal./min. (in general)
2- F ≤ 6000 gal./min. ( for one – story construction)
3- 500 ≤ TF ≤ 12000 gal./min. (total for all purposes for a single fire )

Table below may be used to determine the required fire flow for groups of single – and
two – family residences.

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

Table (2-5) : Needed fire flows for residences two stories or less
Distance between adjacent unites (m) Required fire flows (gal/min)
More than 30.5 500
9.5 – 30.5 750 – 1000
3.4 – 9.2 1000 - 1500
Less than or equal 3.0 1500 – 2000
For continuous construction 2500

The fire flow must be maintained for a minimum of ( 4 hr. ) . Most communities
will require a duration of ( 10 hr. ). As shown in table below:

Table(2-6) : Fire flow duration

Required fire flows (gal/min) Duration (hour)
Less than 1000 4
1000 – 1250 5
1250 – 1500 6
1500 – 1750 7
1750 – 2000 8
2000 – 2250 9
More than 2250 10

In order to determine the maximum water demand during a fire, the fire flow
must be added to the maximum daily consumption rate.

The most widely used empirical formula for firefighting in USA is given by
National Board of Fire Underwriters as:

Q  64 p (1  0.01 p ) … (2-3) (in SI unites)

Q  1020 p (1  0.01 p ) … (2-4) (in British unites)

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

Where :

Q : required fire flow (L/min) , (gal/min) ,

p : population in thousands.

This formula gives a high rate of flow, so only two hours storage may be assumed
fairly good allowance for fire demand.

The limitations of the USA-National Board of Fire Underwriters formula:

1- Population ≤ 200000 capita,
2- Duration of fire (4-10) hrs., and 2hrs., is most favorite.
3- One fire per day.

The required fire flow can be estimated as:

1- 15 Lcpd. , or
2- ( 200 - 300 ) m3 for average rate of water supply of ( 9 – 12 ) l/s
for a period of 5 to 10 hrs.

2-2 Variation in water consumption rates:

2-2-1 Seasonal variations :In summer, daily water consumption rate may be reach
120 to 160% of average daily consumption rate throughout the year. In winter,
daily water consumption may reach only 70% of average daily use throughout the
year.

Fig.(2-1): Represented Seasonal Varations

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

2-2-2 Daily variations:

water consumption varies from one day to another. Daily variation could
reach maximum of 180 to 200% of average daily consumption during the
year or may reach a minimum value of 25 to 50% of average daily water
consumption during the same year.

Daily Variation

Fig.(2-2): represented Daily Varations

2-2-3 Hourly variations:
Maximum rate may be reach up to 150% of average daily rate , of the same
day, at the peak, or may reach 225% of average daily consumption during one
year.

Fig.(2-3): represented Hourly Varations

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

2-3 Components of water supply system:

The components of a water supply system may include:

1- The water source (Dam, Well, River ,etc …..)

2- Transmission system.
3- Treatment plant.
4- Distribution network.

Fig.(2-4): Shows Components of water supply system

2-4 The design capacity of a water supply system:

The design capacity is governed by:

1- Design period :
The number of years for which the system is to be adequate.
2- Design population:
The number of persons to be served.
3- Design flows (Peak Flow):
The rates of consumption.

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

2-4-1 Design period:

The choice design periods is governed by:

1- Useful life based on wear and tear.

2- Expected population growth and developments.
3- Feasibility for addition or expansion.
4- Financial constraints and interest rates.

The design periods usually adopted are as follows:

- Dams : 25 – 100 years.

- Wells : 5 years.
- Transmission pipes : 25 years.
- Pumps 10 years.
- Distribution system : 35 – 45 years.

2-4-2 Design population :

(See chapter one – forecasting population)

2-4-3 Design flow (Maximum Design Flows Estimation):

In the absence of data it may be necessary to estimate the maximum rates. The
R.O.Goodrich formula is sometimes used for estimating consumption:

p  (180  200 )t 0.1 … (2-5)

and most common form is

… (2-6)
p  180 t 0.1
p : percentage of the annual average daily consumption

t: Length of the period in days from (1/12) to 360

Max. daily consumption rate = 180% of the annual average daily consumption.

Max. weekly consumption rate = 148% of the annual average daily consumption.

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

Max. monthly consumption rate = 128% of the annual average daily consumption.

Max. hourly consumption rate = 150% of the max. daily consumption rate, or 270%
(1.5 x 1.8) of the annual average daily consumption.

The values of the Goodrich formula are based on data from residential
community of moderate size.

Min. daily consumption rate = (25 – 50) % of the annual average daily
consumption. (Minimum rates are important in the design of pumping station)

Examples (2-1):

Find the maximum daily water demand for domestic consumption, if the average
domestic consumption is 250 Lcpd., for a city of 20000 capita.

Solution:

p = 180t-1 = 180(1)-0.1 = 180% = 1.8

Max. daily consumption = 1.8 x 250 x 20000 = 9 x 10 6 L/d

Examples (2-2):

A community with a population of 30000 capita has an average consumption of

750 Lcpd., and fire flow by a building of ordinary construction with a floor area of
1000 m2 and a height of 6 stories. Determine the maximum water rate and the total
water flow for domestic and fire demand.

Solution:

p = 180t-1 = 180(1)-0.1 = 180% = 1.8

Max. daily consumption = 1.8 x 750 x 30000 = 40.5 x 106 L/d.

F = 220C√𝐴 = 220(1)√1000𝑋6 = 17041 L/min= 24.5x 106 L/day

Max. water rate = 40.5 x 106 L/d + 24.5 x 106 L/d = 65 x 106 L/d

Let fire duration 10 hrs.,

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Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

1 𝑑𝑎𝑦 10
Total water flow = 40.5x106x + 24.5x106x = 40.5x106+10.2x106=50.7x106L
1 𝑑𝑎𝑦 24

Examples (2-3):

Records for previous years for a city A are:

Using the arithmetic method of increase, find the requirements for 2025?, then find :

1- Rate of fire demand for a single fire of 6 hours duration per day. (m3 /day) ?

2- Quantity of storage for fire demand. ( m3 )?

Year 1975 1985 1995 2005

Population 100000 110000 121000 130000
ka 1000 1100 900
Ka(average) 1000

solution:

P2025=P2005 +Ka∆t = 130000 + (1000)(20) = 150000 capita

1- Q = 64√𝑝 (1-0.01 √𝑝 )= 64 √150 (1-0.01√150 ) = 687.84 L/min.

Q = = 687.88 L/min. x 60 x 24 x 10-3 = 990.49 m3/day

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2- Quantity / day = 990.49 x ( )= 247.62 m3
24

Examples (2-4)

A community has an estimated population in a period of 25 years a head which is

equal to 40000 capita. The present population is 30000 capita and the present average
water consumption is 20000 m3 /d. The existing conventional treatment plant has
a design capacity of 26000 m3 /d. assuming an arithmetic rate of population growth,
determine for how many years the existing plant will reach its design capacity?

solution:

Pt=Po +Ka∆t hence Ka = (Pt – Po) /∆t = (40000 – 30000) / 25= 400

11
Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Water Demand
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Saif Salah Alquzweeni
4th class

Rate = (capacity / population) = (20000 / 30000) = 0.667 m3 /c . d

Population = (capacity / rate) = (26000 / 0.667) = 38981 capita

Pt=Po +Ka∆t hence, 38981 =30000 +400 (∆t)

∆t = T = 22.50 years.

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