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Conclusion

POWER COMPONENT RELIABILITY

For analyzing the failure effects of Power system components such as Power
Transformers, Circuit Breakers, etc., statistical failure data is collected from
the field, i.e., Nellore district sub-stations of APTRANSCO. It is substantiated
with practical case studies that failure of components does affect the system
adequacy and system security. To improve Reliability of EHT transmission
system, preventive efforts are to be taken such as replacement of worn out
equipment, installation of redundant arrangements etc. Component-wise
effect on overall system based on failure criticality index is also computed
for two sample systems based on Birnbaum’s measure.

Transmission Line Reliability

EHT feeder interruptions are forecasted for two feeders of Nellore 220 kV
sub-station of APTRANSCO using regression-based approach, taking the
past trippings quarter-wise data into consideration. The discrepancy between
actual and predicted data may be attributable to varying climatic conditions.
The predicted data gives an idea over probable trippings in advance for
effective preventive maintenance follow up. Computation of main indices such
as availability, failure rate and repair time are carried out based on Markov
approach for 132 and 220 kV feeders of Chittoor district of APTRANSCO.
The availabilities of 132 and 220 kV feeder networks work out to be 99.014
and 99.559 respectively. These values are essential for Reliability and risk
assessment of EHT Transmission network. These values need to be tabulated
and preserved for future analysis as the frequency and duration of interruptions
need to be reduced progressively for improved Reliability.
Conclusion

Sub-Station Design Reliability

A new Reliability index which is specific to Indian context, termed as Average

Load Concentration/Spread Index (ALC/SI) is proposed. This can serve as a
criterion to select the appropriate bus configuration of the EHT sub-stations
for improved availability. Chittoor district of APTRANSCO data is collected
for three numbers of 220 kV and sixteen numbers of 132 kV sub–stations.
ALC/SI was computed substation-wise and suitable bus configuration was
suggested for improved availability.

Load Forecasting

Load forecasting has always been important for planning and operational
decisions conducted by utility companies. However, with the deregulation of
the energy industries, load forecasting is even more important. With supply
and demand fluctuating and the changes of weather conditions and energy
prices increasing by a factor of ten or more during peak situations, load
forecasting is vital for utilities.
ANN based approach was applied to short term load forecasting on
Chittoor district consumption collected on daily basis. Load forecasting is
carried out with acceptable level of accuracy as the error was in the range
of .04944 – 0.55109% only. This forecasting helps to plan augmentation of
power components, EHT Transmission lines and sub-stations in advance for
improved availability.

SUGGESTIONS AND FUTURE SCOPE

Power Component Reliability

New approaches such as transformer diagnostics have been introduced

recently where a diagnostic information system that continuously measures
key performance indicators and uses a self-learning expert system to detect
changes in operating conditions that indicate incipient malfunctions. If a
trend toward malfunction is indicated, it issues a prioritized maintenance
alert indicating the likely cause and urgency of response. It is relevant to
mention that improved reliability through continuous improvement in product
design and manufacturing techniques is far more effective in TQM. Very few
monitoring systems can be cost effectively applied to an entire operating

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system. Instead, utilities are installing site specific systems at critical locations
throughout their networks, or more specifically, on key pieces of electrical
equipment within the substation.
Utilities have a myriad of choices in their maintenance approaches.
The terms used for these approaches; preventive maintenance, corrective
maintenance, time-based maintenance, condition-based maintenance and
reliability-centered maintenance, etc. need to be followed for improved
availability of power components. Utility personnel perform both preventive
maintenance (PM) as well as corrective maintenance (CM). PM is the scheduled
inspection or servicing of equipment at specific points in time to retain the
functional capabilities of the unit. CM is the unscheduled repair of failed
equipment to restore its functional capabilities. Generally, CM is more costly
and time consuming than PM. Therefore, the goal is to statistically develop
a maintenance plan that meets reliability and budget goals.
Utility maintenance programs have historically been based on maintenance
schedules recommended by original equipment manufacturers. As utilities
develop loading histories and maintenance logs for substation equipment, they
adjust maintenance schedules to more accurately reflect the true operating
condition of the devices. By tracking maintenance histories and measuring
critical indicators of wear or deterioration, utilities can lengthen the life span
of existing network systems without adversely affecting reliability. Utilities
now use condition-based monitoring techniques as well as traditional time-
based maintenance (another term to describe PM) schedules. As the industry
continues to restructure and evolve, utility personnel will continue to use
advanced technologies to deliver reliable power to their customers

Transmission Line Reliability

Secure operation of the electric grid relies on planning studies, conducted

off‐line, typically months in advance, that consider whether the grid is capable
of withstanding credible contingencies (such as the unplanned loss of major
generating plants or transmission inter‐ties).To study transient events, such as
the sudden, unplanned loss of a major transmission line or generator, dynamic
computer simulation models are used to predict the response of the grid in
the first few cycles and seconds following an event.
It is possible to exploit the private investment in the transmission grid
reinforcement giving the possibility to the so called “merchant lines”. These
investments can be very profitable for private investors as the existing
grid operators are facing resource crunch for investing transmission grid

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expansion. But the possibility to build merchant lines raises new technical
and economical problems. From technical point of view, it is necessary to
compute the amount of transmission capacity to be assigned to every new
facility coming from time to time. It also requires the market forces to adopt
Flexible AC Transmission (FACTs) for controlling the power flows across
different nodes.
In order to avert a lack of adequate transmission to serve future demand,
many transmission system operators have to develop a planning process that
identifies reliability deficiencies say five to ten years in future. Apart from the
planning, the transmission system operator is expected to develop its own set
of projects to address the deficiencies along with private investments in the
form of merchant projects. This is essential because a critical transmission
line may cause grid congestion and related network violations.
A power exchange needed to be formed where producers and buyers can
bid for selling and purchase of energy conceptualizing the day-ahead energy
market. In the new liberalized environment, the secure planning and operation
is actually possible with a coordinated development of market rules aimed
at guaranteeing both competition and transparency.

Sub-Station Design Reliability

At present, many transmission substations in service rated 110 kV and above,

are older than 40 years. They had often been built in several stages, some parts
extended and refurbished within the time span. It is not unusual to find in the
same substation equipment belonging to different generations, produced by
different manufacturers. This is especially expressive with regard to secondary
systems of control, protection, measuring/metering and communication. On
the same relay board, one can find electromechanical relays dating at the end
of late sixties and analogue static relays from the seventies, together with
several generations of numerical relays.
Sub-station reliability depends on its design. In order to have better
reliability design of sub-station layout, appropriate modifications have to be
carried out depending on sub-station load. Design modification from time
to time involves cost investment. In a utility such as APTRANSCO, which
has number of sub-stations, design modifications have to be continuously
monitored. As it is not possible to employ modifications simultaneously in all
132 kV and 220 kV sub-stations simultaneously, considering huge investments
of cost, it is suggested to incorporate design modifications based on ALC/SI
in a phased manner in all the sub-stations for improving reliability.

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As modern substations are being designed, electrical layout is receiving

considerable attention with regard to reliability. A reliable substation design
has ultimate impact on system performance. The immediate consequence of
poor substation design is the failure to contain common single outages. The
results are multiple outages which stress the system unduly since the grid is
operated only on a first contingency, or single outage basis. The expensive
resolution to this is to provide redundancies in the transmission system. A less
expensive resolution can often be found in designing substation layouts for
reliability. Hence, there is strong incentive to assess reliability of substation
designs.
Substation automation, control and communication provide the information
that is required in real time. Typically, the Intelligent Electronic Devices
(IEDs) that protect, sense and generate data on substation equipment
operate independently. Device independence makes it difficult to compile a
comprehensive snapshot of substation conditions.
The IEC 61850 communications standard was released in 2004 to make the
substation automation devices of different vendors interoperable and enable
them to exchange critical data for basic and advanced functionality, thereby
enhancing substation reliability. Upgrading older protection and control
systems with state of art substation automation (SA) systems, offers new
opportunities to reduce operation and maintenance costs and to work systems
harder with the aid of enhanced schemes as well as condition monitoring for
circuit breakers, power transformers, etc.
State-of-the-art intelligent numerical substation automation systems,
meeting the stated requirements, are structured as open, distributed, with
coordinated functions and peer to peer communication, with high redundancy
and flexibility, enabling high service reliability and availability. The systems
are based on IEC 61850 communication standard with substation configuration
language, utilizing Ethernet backbone of the very high data exchange rate
and reliability, with the fibre optic cables as the transfer path. They enable
integration of devices belonging to different generations of equipment and
produced by different manufacturers. The substation automation system
life cycle is considerably prolonged, with decreased engineering costs for
maintenance and refurbishment compared with other systems applied so far.

Load Forecasting

Reliable power system operation requires far more than monitoring and
controlling the system in real-time. Thorough planning, design, maintenance,

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and analysis are required to ensure that the system can be operated reliably
and within safe limits. Short-term planning addresses day-ahead and week-
ahead operations planning; long-term planning focuses on providing adequate
generation resources and transmission capacity. Load forecasting is required
to ensure that in the future, the system will be able to withstand severe
contingencies without experiencing widespread, uncontrolled cascading
outages.

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