Strengthening of the Renewable

Energy Department of
Serbian Energy Efficiency Agency
WIND FARM
FEASIBILITY STUDY
Index

Duration
Activity Speaker
(min)
Introduction Mrs. Paloma Berberana 10
Site Selection Mrs. Paloma Berberana 5
Measurement programme Mrs. Inés Arañó 15
Wind Farm Design Mrs. Inés Arañó 10
Network Connection and
Mrs. Inés Arañó
electrical system analysis 5
Technical issues Mr . Vladimir Edelinski 15
Environmental Analysis Mrs. Inés Arañó 5
Geotechnical Study Mrs. Inés Arañó 5
Legal Analysis Mr. Slobodan Ruzic 10
Economic & Financial
Analysis Mr. Jaime Prado 10

2
Ingeniería, Estudios y
Proyectos NIP,SA

3
Company presentation
Business Units The provided services are structured in 4 business units

à Energy power generation, transport and distribution.

à Storage, transport and distribution infrastructures of gas and other
Energy hydrocarbons.
à Engineering projects, turnkey projects, construction project management
and supervision, maintenance, technical assistance etc.

à Renewable energies: wind, solar, water, biomass, biofuel, cogeneration,

Renewable etc.
Energy
à Feasibility Studies, Basic Projects and Detailed Engineering

à Database maintenance service, conversion and bulk loading.

Information à Mapping and photogrametry, topography, property registry, etc.
Systems à Permit and expropriation management, administrative authorisation
procedures, market and profitability studies, etc.

à Hydraulic works: planning, water resources analysis and environment

Civil &
protection
Environment
à Environmental impact studies, analysis and pollution correction
Engineering
à Transport infrastructures: roads, railways, airfields.

à Planning, cable network dimensioning, mobiles, LMDS, WLL

Industrial and 4
à Engineering Services in buildings: heating, air-conditioning, lighting,
Telecom.
drainage...
International Projects

Central America: South America: Eastern Europe: Africa: Asia:

Panama Colombia Bosnia i Herzegovina Angola Indonesia

Costa Rica Ecuador Albania Mauritania
Nicaragua Brazil Croatia Algeria
El Salvador Argentina Serbia Kenya 5
Mexico Paraguay
International Projects
Wind power
¾ Indonesia
•Feasibility study for the construction of a wind farm in NIAS Island

¾ Bosnia i Herzegovina
•Feasibility study of wind potential for power generation in BiH

Hydro power plants

¾ Bosnia i Herzegovina
•Rehabilitation of hydro power plant in Mostar (3 x24 MW)
•Analysis of use of small-hydro power plants for electricity production in Srpska Republic.
NIPSA was the consultant selected for the preparation of tender documents

¾ Honduras
•Feasibility study of Mezapa and Jilamito hydro power plants
•Design, installation and commissioning of Nacaome hydro power plant (12,5 and 5MW)
6
Project Overview

7
Project background Project Overview

¾The Government of Spain, through the Agencia Española de

Cooperación Internacional (AECI) has financed this project for
Analysing the possibility of using wind energy for electricity
production in Serbia

¾The International Management Group (IMG) has been assigned

by the AECI as implementing agency

¾After tendering procedures NIPSA was awarded with this project

¾The region under consideration for this study is controlled in terms

of power generation and distribution by Elektroprivreda Srbije
(EPS)

8
Objectives of the study Project Overview

¾Evaluate opportunities of wind energy use

¾Prepare a feasibility study for developing a wind energy

project at one location

¾Assess the economic and legal conditions necessary to

make wind energy resources attractive for speedy
exploitation

¾Transfer to the Serbian Energy Efficiency Agency (SEEA)

the knowledge and working methods needed for the
continued development of wind energy sources in the future

9
Activities Project Overview

¾Site selection
ƒInstallation
ƒInspection
¾Measurement programme
ƒAnalysis after six months
ƒAnalysis after one year
¾Wind farm design

¾Network connection and electrical system analysis

¾Technical issues

¾Environmental analysis

¾Geotechnical study

¾Legal analysis

¾Economic and financial analysis

10
Site Selection

11
Locations Site Selection

¾ According to the Terms of Reference the site selection shall

identify 3 suitable locations for the meteorological masts within
these 6 areas:

1. Vrsac
2. Veliko Gradiste
3. Titel
4. Sabac
5. Negotin
6. Vlasina

12
Aims Site Selection

¾Aims of site selection

ƒDefinition of the exact points for installation of 50 m masts

ƒJustification of such selection in each case

ƒTraining the staff of SEEA

13
Criteria Site Selection

¾Criteria for site selection

ƒWind exposition to the point

ƒHeight of the point

ƒOrography of the terrain

ƒExistence of access

ƒAcquisition of permits

ƒProximity to adequate transmission lines or substations

ƒFacility for construction 14

 Trip Site Selection

¾Trip for site selection: From 11th to 16th of February, 2007

ƒProposed sites for the measurement program are:

SITE ZONE EAST NORTH ALTITUDE (m)

VELIKO GRADISTE (POŽEŽENO) 34 T 21º 33' 07" 44º 44' 53" 86

NEGOTIN (KORNJET) 34 T 22º 14' 35.9" 44º 18' 22.4" 448

TITEL (OLORIJA) 34 T 20º 05' 05" 45º 17' 35" 84

15
Trip Site Selection

16
Trip Site Selection

17
Trip Site Selection

18
Measurement Programme

19
Installation and inspection Measurement Programme

¾Installation: July 2007

¾Inspection: 23rd and 24th July, 2007

¾Official start: 9th August, 2007

¾Inspection report

20
Installation and inspection Measurement Programme

NEGOTIN

VELIKO
GRADISTE

TITEL

21
Six months wind data analysis Measurement Programme

¾ Objectives:

ƒTo do a preliminary analysis of the wind resource and have an

idea of the emplacement selected after one-year of measurements

¾ Issues taken in consideration:

ƒData quality
ƒWind Speed
ƒWind Roses
ƒWeibull distribution
ƒSpatial Extrapolation
ƒEstimation of air density

¾ Conclusions:

ƒThe feasibility study will be developed in Negotin

22
One year wind data analysis Measurement Programme

¾ Objectives:
ƒTo analyze wind resource in the areas and carry out the feasibility
study for the implementation of a wind farm in one of the sites

¾ Issues taken in consideration:

ƒData quality
ƒWind Speed
ƒWind Roses
ƒWeibull distribution
ƒSpatial Extrapolation
ƒEstimation of air density
¾ Conclusions:
ƒThe analysis results confirm that wind resource’s potential is higher
on Negotin
ƒFeasibility study will be developed in Negotin 23
 One year wind data analysis Measurement Programme

¾ Main figures of the 6 and 12 months analysis

Mean wind speed @ 50 m Extrapolation @ 80 m Availability

SITE
6 months 12 months 6 months 12 months 6 months 12 months
VELIKO GRADISTE 3,61 3,50 3,82 3,71 99,7% 99,0%

NEGOTIN 5,24 5,77 5,55 6,10 86,4% 92,4%

TITEL 4,68 4,72 4,95 4,99 97,8% 98,1%

24
One year wind data analysis Measurement Programme

¾ Mean wind speed over the twelve months

MEAN WIND SPEED

m /s
9
VELIKO GRADISTE
8
NEGOTIN
7 TITEL

0
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG

2007 2008

25
One year wind data analysis Measurement Programme

¾Wind Roses and Weibull distribution

Titel
Veliko Gradiste
Negotin

26
 Spatial extrapolation Measurement Programme

¾Power
¾Wind density
speed extrapolation
extrapolation
NEGOTIN
•WAsP model at 80 m.a.g.l.
•Wind rose at met mast

27
Wind Farm Design

28
Overview Wind Farm Design

¾ Objective: to study the viability of the selected location as a suitable

area for a wind farm

¾ Followed steps:

ƒ Wind turbine selection

ƒ Wind farm rating
ƒ Wind farm layout
ƒ Energy production analysis

29
Wind turbine selection Wind Farm Design

¾ Objective: to select a suitable wind turbine for the proposed wind farm

¾ The selection was made taking into consideration:

ƒ Wind turbine manufactures

ƒ Wind turbine size
ƒ Effect on the electrical network
ƒ Technical issues
ƒ Wind conditions over the site (IEC 61 400-1)

30
Wind turbine selection Wind Farm Design

¾ Wind turbines:

GAMESA: G-87 2.0 MW Hub height 78 m Class IIA

ECOTECNIA: ECO-80 2.0 MW Hub height 70 m Class IIA
VESTAS: V-90 3.0 MW Hub height 80 m Class IIA

31
Wind farm rating Wind Farm Design

The final wind farm rating is mainly based on:

¾ Network capacity:
ƒ Present and future state of the transmission network
ƒ Maximum power amount to evacuate at each interconnection point

¾ Land availability:
ƒ Accuracy of the space extrapolation
ƒ Possibility of construction the wind farm

¾ Project economics:
ƒ Economy of scale in wind farms

32
Wind turbines distribution Wind Farm Design

¾ The wind farm layout has been designed taking into account the
following factors:

ƒ Wind direction and energy distribution

ƒ Wake interactions between wind turbines
ƒ Land availability and possibility of construction

¾ Target: optimization of energy production and minimization of wake effect

33
Possible energy losses Wind Farm Design

¾ It has been assumed as possible sources of losses the following:

ƒ Availability
ƒ Electrical efficiency
ƒ Icing and blade dirtiness
ƒ Substation maintenance
ƒ High wind speed hysteresis

Availability 97 %
Electrical losses 98 %
Icing and blade degradation 99.5 %
Substation maintenance 99 %
High wind speed hysteresis 99.5 %
TOTAL 93.2 %
34
Popadija wind farm Wind Farm Design

¾ Wind turbines layout

¾ Prevailing wind: WNW

¾ 15 WT Vestas V90 of 3MW

¾ 1 main row and 2 WT behind

¾ Total power 45 MW

35
Popadija wind farm Wind Farm Design

¾ Coordinates and mean wind speed at hub height at each turbine

position

Turbine site X-location [m] Y-location [m] Elev. [m] Ht [m] U [m/s]

Turbine site 1 7596300 4907927 568 80 6.69

Turbine site 2 7596100 4904346 634 80 7.26
Turbine site 3 7595801 4906214 610 80 7.06
Turbine site 4 7596100 4904106 646 80 7.29
Turbine site 5 7595966 4906391 588 80 6.66
Turbine site 6 7596000 4905423 651 80 6.92
Turbine site 7 7595848 4905712 632 80 6.79
Turbine site 8 7595999 4905189 690 80 7.26
Turbine site 9 7596300 4904742 725 80 7.76
Turbine site 10 7596801 4904766 665 80 6.64
Turbine site 11 7596200 4904547 664 80 7.5
Turbine site 12 7595807 4905972 607 80 6.9
Turbine site 13 7596131 4906568 563 80 6.21
Turbine site 14 7596299 4907707 654 80 7.36
Turbine site 15 7597601 4905545 555 80 6.55
36
Popadija wind farm Wind Farm Design

¾ Wake losses

PARK Modified PARK Eddy viscosity

TURBINE
(%) (%) (%)
Turbine 1 0,18 0,17 0,19
Turbine 2 0,14 0,19 0,18
Turbine 3 0,40 0,42 0,41
Turbine 4 0,10 0,12 0,11
Turbine 5 0,68 0,68 0,74
Turbine 6 1,24 1,33 1,25
Turbine 7 0,79 0,75 0,72
Turbine 8 0,83 0,90 0,87
Turbine 9 2,57 2,80 2,61
Turbine 10 8,36 7,70 8,90
Turbine 11 0,65 0,73 0,67
Turbine 12 0,43 0,44 0,43
Turbine 13 0,62 0,50 0,52
Turbine 14 0,31 0,33 37
0,33
Turbine 15 4,20 3,50 5,20
Popadija wind farm Wind Farm Design

¾ Production at each turbine position

Gross production Net production Capacity Topography Wake loss

Turbine site
(MWh/year) (MWh/year) factor (%) effect (%) (%)
Turbine site 1 7671 7133 27.13 123.80 99.807
Turbine site 2 8695 8087 30.75 140 99.816
Turbine site 3 8364 7761 29.51 135 99.59
Turbine site 4 8741 8135 30.94 141 99.892
Turbine site 5 7679 7102 27.01 123.90 99.26
Turbine site 6 8113 7465 28.39 131 98.75
Turbine site 7 7870 7280 27.68 127 99.28
Turbine site 8 8647 7987 30.37 140 99.13
Turbine site 9 9428 8555 32.53 152 97.39
Turbine site 10 7516 6379 24.25 121.30 91.10
Turbine site 11 9033 8359 31.79 146 99.33
Turbine site 12 8098 7513 28.57 131 99.57
Turbine site 13 6819 6320 24.03 110.00 99.48
Turbine site 14 8799 8171 31.07 142 99.67
Turbine site 15 7417 6552 24.91 119.70 94.80
38
Final results Wind Farm Design

¾ Annual energy production expected (AEP)

POPADIJA WIND FARM

Gross production (GWh) 122,9
Net production (GWh) 112,8
Full load equivalent hours/year 2.505
Capacity factor 28,6 %
Proportional wake losses (Eddy viscosity) 1,49 %
Topography effect 132 %

39
 Network Connection &
Electrical System Analysis

40
 Activities Network connection analysis

¾ Data acquisition

¾ Electrical energy bases

¾ Modelling

¾ Load flows

¾ Feasible connection point assessment

¾ Short circuit

41
Conclusions Network analysis

42
Conclusions Network connection analysis

¾The wind farm will be connected to 110 kV voltage transmission network

via new 110 kV line HPP Djerap 2–Mosna

¾Power system losses increase in winter peak regime, i.e. power system
losses decrease in summer light regime, but are negligible after the wind
farm connection to transmission network

¾Security criterion N–1 is fulfilled after the wind farm connection, and level of
short circuits at neighbouring substations is increased for less than 10 %
comparing to the case when the wind farm is not connected

¾Route of new 110 kV transmission line HPP Djerap 2–Mosna could be

planned taking into consideration connection of the wind farm to the
transmission network
43
Technical Issues

44
Environmental Analysis

45
Potential effects and impacts Environmental analysis

¾Effects on fauna

¾Effects on vegetation

¾Effects on soil

¾Effects on water

¾Noise and atmospheric quality

¾Effects on landscape
46
Conclusions Environmental analysis

¾The study area does not belong to any of protected areas as national
parks, landscape parks, nature reserves…

¾The Danube Valley is an important bird migration corridors in Eurasia.

The wind farm location is quite close (19,5 km at the nearest point) but
does not seem an adequate area to concentrate large-birds numbers
because it is a high and cold area

¾Most affected community by the works of Popadija wind farm may be

the group of breeding species. But an adequate planning can minimize
the impacts as there are similar habitats in the nearness and duration of
works is short

¾The amphibian species strictly linked to water-bodies are not likely to

suffer any significant impact derived from the project. Information about
fishes are not included because of the lack of permanent streams or
water-bodies

47
Next steps Environmental analysis

¾ Pre-construction studies

¾ Avoidance measures

¾ Mitigation measures

¾ Compensatory measures

¾ Monitoring & surveillance plan

¾ Decommissioning plan
48
Geotechnical Study

49
 Conclusions Geotechnical study

¾Geotechnical layers after 2 or 3 m deep are recommended to lay the

foundations of wind turbines. The valued admissible tension for this level is
around to 2 kg/cm2 (to determine with uniaxial compressive test)

¾Hydraulic digger Cat. 245 or similar is necessary to excavate up to 3 m deep.

To excavate layers after 3 m deep it is necessary to employ preblasting to
blasting (if RQD > 50-75 %)

¾Groundwater probably appears in the contact between first levels. Water

aggression to the concrete has to be determined by respective aggression
test, but very probably these groundwater are of weak aggression and do not
require the use of sulphate-resistant concrete

¾Material from excavation is not suitable for building the culmination on the
top of the fill and it is necessary to obtain it in quarry. Any of them are suitable
to build the core of the fill

50
Pictures Geotechnical study

51
Legal Analysis

52
 EU Regulation on Renewable
Legal Analysis
Generated Electricity

¾ In 2001 the EU adopted the Directive on the Promotion of Electricity

Produced from Renewable Sources, it creates a framework that will
facilitate, in the medium term, a significant increase in renewably-generated
electricity (RES-E) within the EU

¾ Main aspects regulated

• Definition of renewable energy
• National targets for consumption of electricity from renewable
sources of energy
• Support schemes
• Guarantee of origin of RES-E
• Administrative procedures
• Grid connection issues
53
• Timetable for implementation
 Support Schemes Legal Analysis

¾ Direct market support: market price support (feed-in tariffs; fiscal

stimulation) or market volume support (renewable portfolio standards;
RES-E tenders)

¾ Investment support

¾ Investment subsidies: the public sector may choose to foster market

development of certain RETs by way of investment subsidies

¾ Tax facilities (accelerated depreciation, tax credits, etc.), or ‘‘green’’

financing facilities at subsidized interest rates

¾ R&D: improve cost and reliability performance, familiarize target users

with technologies

¾ Public information campaigns, education, and training

54
Legal Framework in Serbia Legal analysis

¾Energy law August 1, 2004

Competent bodies – Agencies:

•Energy Agency of Republic of Serbia (AERS)
•Serbian Energy Efficiency Agency (SEEA)

Energy market agents:

•Power Generation
•Power transmission system
•System operator
•Market operator
•Power distribution system

Energy prices and services structure:

•AERS’ responsibility-Tariff systems; Government’s responsibility-prices
55
Energy Community Treaty Legal analysis

¾Serbia has promised together with the European Community to enter on a

common energy market

¾The Treaty came into force on July 1, 2006, and includes a 10-years period

¾Energy Community activities consists of the application of the Community

regulation concerning energy, environment, competition and renewable
energies

¾ The Treaty creates an energy market without internal borders, customs

duties and restrictions on energy imports and exports

56
 Proposals Legal analysis

¾Legal framework
1. Develop an institutional and legal framework comprehensive, stable,
transparent and reliable on renewable energy – in progress.
2. The regulation must include a precise definition of the RES and define goals.
3. Feed in tariffs should be adopted as the most appropriate supporting scheme
for Serbia
4. Simplify existing procedures for issuing energy permits, construction permits
and licensing for generation:
• Avoid concession procedure for small hydro energy facilities and simplify
requests for energy permit issuing.
• Define precise instructions to Public Utilities responsible for water
management regarding ownership issues.
• Define precise instructions regarding spatial & city planning to
responsible municipality entities.
• Producers should apply for generation licenses in the Energy Agency,
without any accreditation from the Government or other bodies. 57
 Proposals Legal analysis

¾ Regulation authorizations for the installation of facilities

1. Ensure that the rules are transparent and non-discriminatory

2. Give preference to renewable energy projects – in progress

58
Proposals Legal analysis

¾ Environmental protection

Simplify the environmental procedures required for the development of wind

power projects
Trade of green certificates in the Kyoto Protocol and the EU regulations: the
structure being able to homologize the certificates should be established

¾Power system operation issues

Avoid possible negative impacts on power system operation due to fast

connection of large wind turbines
¾ Development of public policies

Integrate renewable energy issues into non-energy sector policies and cross
sector issues: environmental, R&D, planning, etc

59
Economic & Financial Analysis
Income estimation Economic & Financial Analysis

-Equivalent Hours-
Base Scenario
Selling Price

-Energy Production- 9 cent. Euros/kWh

2,505 h/year

-Nominal Power- 112.7 GWh/year

-Income from Energy Sale-

45 MW 10,147 k€/year
61
 O&M Expenses Economic & Financial Analysis

-Operation and Maintenance expenses-

2500 21.7% 1.9 cent. Euros/kWh

Local taxes and miscellaneous
2198
18.3% 1.6 cent. Euros/kWh
Professional services
2000 1860
Other M&A costs

M&A Staff
1500
Electric Installation
k€

Insurances
1000 Land lease
1522
Energy consumption
1184
500 Roads, buildings & gardens

Security & Surveillance

0 O&M contract service

Warranty period Rest of years
62
% O&M over sales
Investment Economic & Financial Analysis

-Investments (base scenario)-

1% 4% 4% 1% 2% Cost of turbines

2% Civil Works

5% Electric Installation

Engineering

Substation

Transmission Line
81% Development Costs

61875 k€ Others
1375 €/kW

63
 Financial Structure Economic & Financial Analysis

-Financial Structure (base scenario)-

¾Financial Conditions
• Interest rates: 8.5% LT Loan
90000
• Loan fee: 2.5% Equity
80000 Financial costs*
• Amortization: 16 years Investment
70000 66130
• Debt Service Coverage Ratio >1.4

• Minimum equity: 15% 60000

• Debt Service Reserve fund: 50000

k€

54432
50% of Debt service
40000
61875 17,7%
30000

20000

10000
11698
0
* Financial construction costs and Loan fee
64
Equity %
Internal return rate (IRR) Economic & Financial Analysis

-Payback & IRR (base scenario)-

k€
Equity
140000
Acc. Free Cash Flow
120000
100000 IRR (25): 18.2%
80000
60000
11,698
40000
20000
0
0 2 4 6 78 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Years

Pay back

65
Sensitivity analysis Economic & Financial Analysis

-Investment Cost evolution in Spain-

1800
1600
1400

1200
1000
€/kW

800
600

400
200
0
86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20
Year

IDAE and consultants

66
Sensitivity analysis Economic & Financial Analysis

-Scenarios-

Investment Selling Price

€/kW €/kW
1325 8.5
1375 9
1425 9.5
1475 10
Base

67
Sensitivity analysis Economic & Financial Analysis

-Sensitivity Analysis-

30%
28.00%
1325 €/kW
25.70%
25% 1375 €/kW
24.20%
23.60% 1425 €/kW
22.20%
1475 €/kW
21.80% 20.30% 20.60%
20%
IRR

18.20%
18.00%
16.20% 16.20%
15% 14.60%
14.70% 13.20%

10%

5%
10 9.5 9 8.5
Selling price Cent. €/kWh 68
Conclusion Economic & Financial Analysis

Popadija Wind Farm

Base Sc. 2nd Sc 3rd Sc 4th Sc
Selling Price (cent.€/kW) 0.09 0.095 0.09 0.085
Invest. Cost (€/kW) 1,375 1,475 1,475 1,375

IRR 18.2% 18% 14.7% 14.6%

Pay back (years) 7 7 9 9
Minimum Equity required 17.7% 17.9% 23.2% 23.4%

69
THANK YOU!

70