TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

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 Macro Economic and Technical Outlook 2024

Macro Economic Outlook
• The Indian economy continues to be a ‘star performing’
economy as against other emerging markets.
• It continue its growth momentum in 2024 and remain the land
of stability against the backdrop of a volatile global economy
• Key Events in 2024: 1) Interim Budget; 2) General Election
2024; 3) Expectation of the FED rate cut around May-Jun’24;
4) Full-year budget around Jul’24 after the formation of new
government; 5) Expectations of interest rates cut by the RBI
in sync with global rate cut, and 6) US Election in Nov’24
which will keep equity market volatile.
• In any case, we continue to believe in the long-term growth
story of the Indian equity market and believe it to be well-
supported by the favorable structure emerging, with
increasing Capex enabling banks to improve credit growth.
India's Market Marvel in 2023 - A Year of Strong Growth
• In 2023, the Indian market showcased robust performance
with Sensex and Nifty delivering returns of 18% and 19%,
respectively. Noteworthy gains were observed across sector
indexes, establishing a strong market performance
• The broader market outperformed the Sensex, with Nifty
Midcap 100 and Nifty Small cap 100 delivering impressive
returns of 44% and 53%, respectively,
• In our Yearly Outlook 2023, we projected a Nifty target of
20500 with anticipated support levels between 17300 and
16800 & suggested accumulating quality stocks in this range.
• We are pleased to announce that our Nifty outlook
materialized successfully, with Nifty made a low of 16850 in
March 2023 and bounce back sharply surpassing our target of
20500 to achieve a high of 21654.

2024 Technical Market Outlook: Strong Momentum May Continue

• Nifty and Bank Nifty have decisively broken out its previous year’s high and registered an all time high at 21759 and 48636
respectively . Indices are in strong uptrend across the time frame forming a series of higher tops and bottoms representing bullish
sentiments.
• The chart pattern indicates that if Nifty is likely to experience increased buying momentum, propelling the index towards the 23000 to
23500 range. On the flip side, if the index drops below 21500, it is likely to experience profit booking, potentially pushing the index
down to the 20800 to 20300 range.
• In the medium term, a critical support level lies within the range of 20500-20000, marked by a confluence of factors including a gap
area between 20500-20300, the 20 Weekly SMA at 19960, and the transformation of previous resistance into support due to a change
in the principle of polarity. This support zone presents an opportunity for the accumulation of quality stocks.
• The recommended strategy involves accumulating stocks in the portfolio during dips. It's worth noting that the range between 20800-
20500 is expected to provide robust support, potentially paving the way for Nifty to reach the 23,500 level by the year 2024.
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 Nifty 50 CY24 Projection: Targeting 23500 in the Year Ahead

Nifty CY24 projection target @23500

• Nifty analysis since March 2020 (i.e.7511) highlights six instances of a 10% decline, with each followed by an average 25% return in
subsequent rallies before a correction ensued.
• Following a recent 7% correction, with Nifty declining from 20222 to 18837, applying the aforementioned analysis suggests a projection
for Nifty in CY24 around 23500
• In the medium term, a critical support level lies within the range of 20500-20000, marked by a confluence of factors including a gap area
between 20500-20300, the 20 Weekly SMA at 19960, and the transformation of previous resistance into support due to a change in the
principle of polarity. This support zone presents an opportunity for the accumulation of quality stocks.

Source: Bloomberg, Axis Securities

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GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - 2024

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 Sensex delivered an impressive return among the major global
markets

• The performance of the Indian stock market, as reflected by the Sensex, stood out prominently in comparison to major global indices.
The Sensex demonstrated a robust return of 18%, surpassing the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000, which delivered
returns of 13% and 17% respectively.
• Furthermore, the Sensex outperformed prominent European indices, with the Euro Stoxx Index registering a commendable 15% return,
while the UK FTSE100 exhibited a more modest growth of 3.6%
• US technology and growth stocks index, the NASDAQ-100 emerged as a frontrunner, boasting an impressive 55% return. Japan's Nikkei
225 followed suit with a solid performance, delivering a notable 29% return.
• However, it is noteworthy that the Hong Kong Hang Seng index experienced a challenging year, emerging as the underperformer with a
substantial loss of -16%.
• Sensex's exceptional performance showcases the strength and resilience of the Indian stock market, positioning it favorably against both
developed and emerging markets.

Source: Bloomberg, Axis Securities

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 Dow Jones Index set for an uptrend after consolidation breakout

• The US Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) index has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the monthly chart
since the middle of 2021.
• In November 2023, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average decisively broke out of a consolidation pattern with a strong bullish candle,
signaling the continuation of a long-term uptrend.
• The former resistance zone at 30000 is poised to function as a support area, attributed to the shift in the principle of polarity.
• The monthly chart reflects a bullish momentum in the index as the MACD line has undergone a positive crossover above the signal line.

Source: Bloomberg, Axis Securities

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 FTSE Consolidation & Euro Stoxx on the Verge of a Breakout

• The UK FTSE 100 has entered a consolidation phase, oscillating between 8000 and 6700 since the start of 2022. Of particular
significance is the 8000 level, coinciding with a multi-year resistance zone. A decisive breach above this level holds the potential to mark
the commencement of an uptrend; however, caution is advised as 6700 will act as a significant downside support.evious swing high. This
occurrence is suggestive of a potential multi-year bullish trend in the index.
• The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is on the verge of breaking out from a multi-year resistance dating back to mid-2007, positioned at 4572. A
decisive close above this level is anticipated to trigger a continuation of the uptrend in the index.

Source: Bloomberg, Axis Securities

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 Contrasting Trajectories - Nikkei 225 in Uptrend, Hang Seng in Downtrend

• The Japanese Nikkei 225 Index has successfully broken above a rounded bottom formation at the 31000 level on the monthly chart since
2021. With consolidation above the breakout, the index is positioned for a continued uptrend, with the 31000 area now serving as a
critical support zone. The Index emerged as one of the top performers among major global indexes , delivering a notable 27% return in
2023.
• The Hang Seng index is exhibiting a sustained downtrend, characterized by the formation of lower highs and lows on a monthly chart,
signaling a persistent bearish trend. In the financial year 2023, the index experienced a substantial negative return of -20%, underscoring
the challenging market conditions.

Source: Bloomberg, Axis Securities

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COMMODITIES & CURRENCY OUTLOOK - 2024

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 Shining Outlook: Gold Poised for New Highs in 2024

Fundamental Outlook
• The significant gains in Gold during 2023,
with over a 10% rise in COMEX prices and a
more than 12% increase in the domestic
market due to rupee weakness, reflect the
metal's resilience against challenges posed
by a strong dollar index and bond yields.
Geopolitical tensions, coupled with
expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2024, further
supported Gold prices, reinforcing them at
lower levels.
• In the recent FOMC meeting, the Federal
Reserve surprised the market by adopting a
dovish stance and announcing their intention
to cut rates by 75 basis points, a move that
bolstered Gold prices.
• The overall outlook for Gold prices appears
positive, supported by central banks
accumulating the precious metal at each dip.
In the previous year, central banks acquired
over 1000 tonnes of Gold, and in the current
year, the accumulation stands close to 800
tonnes in the first nine months, reflecting a
14% year-on-year increase.

Technical Outlook
• Gold prices on the COMEX chart have persistently approached the $2075 level over the past three and a half years, reaching a lifetime high of
$2140, indicating sustained buying interest even in the presence of elevated interest rates.
• Technical indicators paint a bullish picture for Gold as it trades above the 20 and 60 Monthly Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the monthly
chart, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) surpassing the 60 level, signifying robust upside momentum.
• A monthly close above $2070 is poised to pave the way for Gold to ascend towards the $2250 level, implying a potential return of close to 9 percent
within a year.

Source: Bloomberg, Axis Securities

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 Navigating Uncertainty: Volatility Forecast for Crude Oil in 2024

Fundamental Outlook
• The year 2023 proved to be a roller coaster
for crude oil prices, witnessing a surge of over
30 percent from June due to OPEC+ supply
cuts. However, the rally was short-lived,
influenced by a discouraging recovery in
China and a property crisis that dampened
investor sentiment, leading to a decline from
the 52-week high of $95 to the $70 level.
• In the upcoming fiscal year (FY24), we
anticipate substantial fluctuations in the
market driven by factors including the
lingering Chinese economy, OPEC+ supply
cuts, escalating global COVID-19 cases, and
impending general elections in two major
economies, the USA and India.
• Anticipating a positive trajectory in 2024, we
expect prices to trade with a favorable bias,
driven by potential rate cuts by the Federal
Reserve, which could stimulate the economy
and provide support at lower price levels.

Technical Outlook

• WTI Crude is projected to navigate a trading range of $60 to $100 in CY24, with the $100 level representing substantial horizontal resistance dating back to 2011,
and the $60 level serving as a established support zone since 2019.
• A breach below the two-year-long rising channel would mark the end of the uptrend. Consequently, the expectation is for the crude oil market to consolidate within
the range of $100 to $60 throughout CY24.

Source: Bloomberg, Axis Securities

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 USDINR Consolidation Continues: Analyzing the Pair Trajectory
Fundamental Outlook
• The USDINR pair and the US Dollar index
have predominantly been influenced by
increasing interest rates since the
commencement of 2023.
• Anticipated shifts in 2024 foresee a shift as
interest rate cuts are set to dominate FX
markets, with FOMC members suggesting a
possible 75 BPS reduction in three tranches
based on the recent FED policy.
• This implies a potential correction in the US
Dollar, contingent upon the stability of
geopolitical conditions worldwide.
• In 2024, the USDINR exchange rate is likely to
be significantly influenced by the general
election dynamics and monetary policies
enacted by both the Federal Reserve (FED) in
the US and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Technical Outlook
• Analyzing the monthly chart of the USDINR pair indicates a consolidation phase since October 2022, with candle’s becoming smaller in sizes toward
the end of 2023, signaling decreased momentum in the pair.
• The USDINR is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern, and a decisive break above 85 suggests an upward trajectory, while a decisive
close below 81.5 indicates a downside potential
• From a technical standpoint for CY24, we anticipate a negative bias for the Dollar-Rupee (USDINR) pair, with a projected broader range between
85.00 on the upside and 82.00-81.50 on the downside.

Source: Bloomberg, Axis Securities

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INDEX OUTLOOK - 2024

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 Multi Year Bullish Trend in Sensex

Sensex – Dow Jones Industrial Average RS ratio line breaks above multi year resistance.
• The Relative Strength (RS) ratio line is a metric used to compare the price change of a security with that of a "base" security or index.
When the RS ratio line is trending upwards, it signifies that the index is outperforming the base index in relative terms
• Historically, when the RS ratio line, comparing the Sensex to the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, remains above the 100 Monthly
EMA, the Sensex has delivered an average return of 187% in the last five instances.
• The recent rebound of the RS ratio line around the 100 Monthly EMA in mid-2021 suggests a strong support level, indicating a potential
for a multi-year bullish trend in the Sensex.
• The RS ratio line's breakout above the previous multi-year high at the beginning of CY22 signals the potential initiation of a sustained
multi-year bullish trend in the Sensex index.

Source: Bloomberg, Axis Securities

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 Yearly Technical Outlook

Nifty 50 Index
• With June’2023 quarter close , Nifty
has decisively broken out past one CMP:21730 Support :21000-20500 Resistance : 23000-23500
year “consolidation zone“ between
18800-15500 on a closing basis
representing strong comeback of
bulls and continuation of a prior up
trend. Index has registered a new
all time high 21759 indicating bullish
sentiments

• Index continue to trend higher

forming a series of higher tops and
bottoms formation across all the
time frames indicating positive bias.

• The chart pattern suggests Nifty is

likely to extended its upward
momentum towards 23000-23500
levels.

• However if the index breaks below

21500 level it would witness profit
booking which would take the index
towards 21000-20800-20500 levels.

• Nifty is in uptrend from long term, so

buying on dips continues to be our
preferred strategy near above
mentioned support zone.

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 Yearly Technical Outlook

Bank Nifty Index

• Bank Nifty has decisively broken
out past year’s high of 44151 and CMP:48530 Support :47000-46400 Resistance : 51300-54000
sustaining above the same . It ahs
also registered a new high at
48636 indicating strong bullish
sentiments

• Index trending higher forming a

series of higher tops and bottoms
and also well placed above its 20,
50, 100 and 200 day SMA which
reconfirms positive bias

• The chart pattern suggests Bank

Nifty continue to witness buying
momentum which would lead the
index towards 51300-54000 levels

• However if the index breaks below

47000-46500 level it would
witness profit booking which would
take the index towards 46300-
45600 levels

• Bank Nifty is in uptrend from long

term, so buying on dips continues
to be our preferred strategy.

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 Broader market participation expected in CY24

BSE 500-Sensex RS Ratio Line Signals Broader Market Participation

• Historical analysis reveals that when the RS ratio line of the BSE 500 index to the Sensex surpasses the 200-week Exponential Moving
Average (EMA), the BSE 500 index has exhibited an average gain of approximately 70% across the last six instances dating back to
1999
• In the recent context, the RS ratio line found support at the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and rebounded significantly at
the onset of CY23, indicating an expectation of broader market participation.
• BSE 500 exhibited a robust 24% return after the RS line found support at the 200-week EMA and rebounded. Considering historical
patterns indicating an average return of 70%, the potential for a further upside of 46% remains, potentially propelling the index in strong
uptrend.

Source: Bloomberg, Axis Securities

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 Yearly Technical Outlook
BSE 500 Index
• BSE 500 has decisively broken out
past one year “consolidation zone“ CMP:30500 Support :29400-28600 Resistance : 31800-33800
around 26000 levels on a closing
basis

• On the quarterly chart, the index is

holding above its prior breakout
zone of 26000 levels which
remains a positive sign

• The chart pattern suggests that

BSE 500 would witness buying
momentum which would lead the
index towards 31800-33800 levels

• However if the index breaks below

29400 level it would witness profit
booking which would take the index
towards 28600-28000 levels which
may remains as a buying
opportunity

• BSE 500 is in uptrend from long

term, hence any short term
corrections near mentioned support
zone will provide to buying
opportunity.

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SECTOR PERFORMANCE 2023 & RRG ANALYSIS 2024

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 BSE Sector Performance in 2023

BSE Sector Performance-2023

• In 2023, a remarkable upswing was observed, characterized by impressive returns across all sectors, reflecting positive market
sentiment and widespread participation.
• The BSE Realty Index emerged as the leading performer with a remarkable gain of 75%, closely trailed by Capital Goods with a gain of
64%. Additionally, sectors including BSE Auto, Healthcare, and Power also exhibited noteworthy returns.
• Furthermore, sectors including BSE IT, Metal, Consumer Durables, and FMCG also reported positive returns, contributing to the overall
positive performance across diverse segments.
• The Sensex delivered a commendable 17% return, with BSE Oil & Gas and Bankex being the only sectors that underperformed the
benchmark; nevertheless, both sectors still managed to yield positive returns

75
BSE Real Estate
64
BSE Capital Goods
41
BSE Auto
35
Bse Health Care
32 BSE Power
26 BSE IT

26 BSE Metal

25 BSE Consumer Durables

BSE FCMG
24
BSE Sensex
17
BSE Oil & Gas
12
BSE Bankex
10

Source: Spider, Axis Securities, on 26th Dec, 2023.

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 Relative Rotation Graph(RRG) Sector Analysis

Technical RRG Analysis- Sector Rotation

The detailed RRG analysis highlights BSE Capital Goods, Auto, and Realty in the leading quadrant, poised to drive the benchmark Sensex
index. Healthcare, Telecom, and Metal are on the verge of entering the leading quadrant, presently in an improving phase. Notably, BSE IT
and Consumer Durables have transitioned into the improving quadrant, offering potential opportunities for bargain buying and quality stock
accumulation. While the Banking index has entered the weakening quadrant due to profit booking, it is anticipated to reenter the leading
quadrant, participating in the upcoming market rally. Source: Bloomberg, Axis Securities

Fundamental Outlook on Sectors Rotation.

India is on the cusp of the Manufacturing up-cycle and is expected to gain further boost from the policy continuity post the General Election
2024 The PSU banks space is expected to continue its growth momentum moving forward. Banks remain well-poised to deliver a
consistent RoA/RoE of 1%/15-16% with a scope for re-rating. IT services will be a beneficiary of the sector rotation theme. The segment
will also gain further traction on account of the global interest rate cut cycle. After a muted performance in 2023, the Consumption space is
likely to gain traction in 2024. In particular, the QSR space is well-placed to deliver strong returns due to its current attractive valuations.
Gold loans are witnessing increasing customer traction on account of higher gold prices, improving economic activity of NBFC gold loan
customers, and increase in risk weight for consumer credit. This should support gold loan growth moving ahead.
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TECHNICAL STOCK PICKS 2024

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 Technical Stock Picks: Investing Ideas for 2024
We recommend buying and accumulating the stocks within the specified range for the potential upside of 16% to 43% in 2024.

BUY BUY Target Target Upside

STOCK CMP
First Second First Second Potential

Divi's Laboratories Ltd 3850 3730 3884 4185 4450 17%

GAIL (INDIA) Ltd 145 140 152 170 195 37%

Grasim Industries Ltd 2100 2040 2125 2320 2450 18%

Housing & Urban Development Corporation Ltd 120 110 114 148 165 43%

JSW Steel Ltd 870 845 876 985 1030 20%

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 10000 9900 10288 11000 11500 16%

NOCIL Ltd 270 260 276 300 325 23%

Patanjali Foods Ltd 1550 1490 1590 1835 1950 28%

Punjab National Bank Ltd 90 85 92 105 113 29%

Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd 150 142 155 185 200 37%

Voltas Ltd. 960 930 985 1055 1170 24%

Wipro Ltd 455 442 471 530 570 27%

CMP as on 27th Dec, 2023

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 Divi's Laboratories Ltd.

| Rec. Price: 3850-3730 | Target: 4185-4450 | Upside: 10%-17% Technical Outlook

• The Nifty Pharma Index achieved a notable

32% YTD performance, surpassing the
October 2021 swing high of 14938. The
monthly chart consistently exhibits a higher
high-low pattern, confirming a strong uptrend.
• The stock exhibits an inverted head and
shoulders pattern breakout, signaling the
potential initiation of a medium-term uptrend.
• Stock is holding above short term upward
sloping trendline and 20 monthly Exponential
Moving Average(EMA). Indicating postive
momentum.
• Anticipating further upward momentum, we
project the stock price to target the range of
4185-4450, aligning with the 50% and 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement levels of the decline
from 5425 to 2740.

Fundamental Outlook
• Divi's Laboratories Limited manufactures pharmaceutical products. The Company offers generic drugs, ingredients, and their
intermediates. Divi's Laboratories serves the healthcare sector globally.
• Custom Synthesis: Divi's has launched Sacubitril as a CS product, adding incremental volumes to exports, given that the company has
initiated shipments to innovator (Novartis). With Sacubitril expected to face generic competition the US in 2025/26, it will be a limited-
period high earnings stream for Divi’s. Sacubitril could potentially contribute USD$ 100-120 Mn revenue p.a. to Divi’s.
• Generic APIs: Divi's is targeting products with a cumulative addressable market size of USD$ 20 bn, going off patent in FY23-25E -
expect launches to start from FY24. In Contrast media - two APIs being produced exclusively for innovators, it could add USD$ 65-75
Mn incremental revenue to company. It is expected over a longer period business has capability to perform better.

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 GAIL (INDIA) Ltd

| Rec. Price: 145-140| Target: 179-195 | Upside: 19%-37% | Technical Outlook

• The Nifty Energy Index has successfully

breached a multiple resistance zone at the
29000 level, triggering a robust rally post-
breakout and is anticipated to sustain its
upward momentum, signaling a potential
continuation of the uptrend
• On a quarterly chart, GAIL experienced a
broader consolidation within the 130-50
range. This quarter, the stock broke above
the upper boundary of the consolidation,
signaling the initiation of an uptrend.
• Anticipating a resumption of the upward
trend, we project the stock to ascend towards
170-195, reflecting an 80-point consolidation
difference added to the breakout level.

Fundamental Outlook

• GAIL limited – headquartered in New Delhi, India, is a government owned natural gas corporation responsible for natural gas
processing and distribution in India and operates under the ownership of Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India.
• The company supplies more than 65% of total gas in Fertilizer sector, more than 50% of gas consumed in Power sector and almost 60%
of total gas consumption in GCD, India.
• The company has undergone a capex of Rs. 2,460Cr in Q2FY24 where the management is guiding increase in gas volume
transmission at 120mmscmd for FY24 and 132mmscmd for FY25.

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 Grasim Industries Ltd

| Rec. Price: 2100-2040 | Target: 2320-2450| Upside: 12%-18% | Technical Outlook

• GRASIM has been in an uptrend on a

quarterly chart since the beginning of 2020.
Following a rally, it entered a consolidation
phase between 1900 and 1300 from the end
of 2022
• Recently breaking above the consolidation
zone, GRASIM is poised to continue its
medium-term uptrend.
• On the monthly chart, the stock is
establishing a higher high-low formation,
maintaining a positive bias and holding above
the medium-term uptrend
• Anticipating a sustained uptrend, the stock is
expected to move towards 2320 and
potentially advance further to reach the 2450
level.

Fundamental Outlook
• Grasim Industries Limited is the flagship company of the Aditya Birla group, it ranks amongst India's largest private sector companies. On
standalone basis, GIL’s core businesses comprise of viscose Staple fibre (VSF), caustic soda, speciality chemicals, rayon-grade wood pulp (RGWP)
with plants at multiple locations. It is also the holding company of UltraTech Cement Ltd, Hindalco Industries, AB Fashion, AB Capital and
Vodaidea.
• At CMP total investment value of GIL in these companies stands at Rs 2.06 lakh Cr and valuation of standalone business at Rs 1.15 lakh Cr which
is at 44% discount to its investment value.
• The company has also ventured into Paint business with capex of Rs 10,000 Cr . Grasim is aiming for the number two position in the paints sector.It
has unveiled the the brand name of its paints business, ‘Birla Opus’. The market launch of Birla Opus is scheduled for Q4FY24. Grasim will offer a
full suite of high-quality products in the decorative paints segment. The current estimated value of India’s decorative paints industry is Rs 70,000
Crore. The paints industry is witnessing double digit growth year-on-year driven by rising consumer aspirations and the government’s push towards
‘Housing for All’. This is expected to add higher value to the business moving ahead.
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 Housing & Urban Development Corporation Ltd

| Rec. Price: 120-110. | Target: 148-165 | Upside: 29%-43% | Technical Outlook

• Nifty Financial Services index shows a strong

uptrend, forming higher high-low patterns and
holding above the medium-term trend. The
recent breakout above 21000 suggests a
continuation of the upward momentum.
• On a quarterly chart, HUDCO has broken
above the multi-year swing high at 78,
established at the end of 2017, signaling the
continuation of the previously established
uptrend.
• The breakout in volume activity signals an
increase in market participation, indicating a
surge in interest and potential momentum.
• The stock is anticipated to ascend towards
148 and is poised for a potential further
advance, targeting levels around 165.

Fundamental Outlook
• HUDCO is a Schedule-A Mini Ratna, CPSE with 53 years of standing as a premier techno-financial organization in housing and urban development
sector. It operates pan-India through a network of 21 regional offices and 11 development offices. The Company has been funding a wide array of
housing and urban infrastructure projects ranging from EWS/LIG housing to water supply, sanitation, roads, bridges, airports and to even metro rail.
• In H1FY24, strong disbursement growth translated into healthy advances growth of 7% YoY. Yield on loans has improved from 9.25% in H1FY23 to
9.34% in H1FY24. However, in H1FY24, higher increase in cost of funds (i.e by 20 bps YoY) as against the increase in yield (i.e 9 bps YoY) led to
marginal decline in margins by 8 bps YoY.
• In H1FY24, HUDCO reported improvement in asset quality wherein GNPA improved from 3.8% in H1FY23 to 3.36% and NNPA improved from 0.6%
in H1FY23 to 0.49%. With better operating performance and improved asset quality, HUDCO reported PAT at Rs. 897 Cr for H1FY24 ( Up by 11%
YoY)

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 JSW Steel Ltd

| Rec. Price: 870-845 | Target: 985-1030 | Upside: 15%-20% | Technical Outlook

• Nifty Metal, breaking out of an ascending

triangular pattern on the monthly chart since
the start of 2022, is anticipated to sustain its
medium-term upward momentum post-
breakout.
• The stock mirrored the formation of Nifty
Metal, displaying an ascending triangular
pattern since the beginning of 2022. With a
recent breakout above the pattern at the 850
level, it signals a continuation of the uptrend
• The stock is anticipated to join the expected
metal rally following the breakout.
• We expect a continuation of the bullish trend
post-breakout, we forecast the stock price to
gradually ascend towards 985-1030, reaching
the projected target

Fundamental Outlook
• JSW Steel is the flagship unit of JSW group, a US$23bn diversified business group. JSW steel is an integrated steel company with a total crude
steel production capacity of 29.7 MTPA in India and USA. The company has grown from a single manufacturing unit to India’s largest steel producer
over the last three decades.
• By FY25, the company plans to expand its capacity to 38.5 MTPA. It will be expanding its largest single location steel plant in Vijayanagar,
Karnataka from the current 12.5 MTPA capacity to 19.5 MTPA by FY25.
• JSW Steel plans to expand its steel production to 50 MTPA by end of this decade by entailing total capex of Rs 1 Lc Cr.
• The company is trading at 12 Month Forward P/B of 2.5x (long term average of 1.6x)

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 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

| Rec. Price: 10000-9900 | Target: 11000-11500 | Upside: 11%-16% | Technical Outlook

• Nifty Auto index has delivered an impressive

44% YTD return, showcasing a strong
uptrend and is poised to sustain its upward
momentum.
• On a quarterly chart, Maruti has formed a
rounded bottom pattern and successfully
broken out above the same at the 10,000
level.
• The stock is anticipated to continue
participating in the overall rally of Nifty Auto
following a breakout
• Anticipating sustained upward momentum
post-breakout, we foresee the stock heading
towards an upside target of 11000-11500
levels

Fundamental Outlook

• MSIL is the market leader of India’s passenger vehicle industry and is also the largest exporter of PV in India. The Company has three state-of-the-
art manufacturing facilities located in Gurugram, Manesar in Haryana and Gujrat (SMG), capable of producing ~2.25 Mn units pa.
• Maruti Suzuki sells hatchbacks, sedans, MUVs and SUVs in India through its ARENA and NEXA channels. At present, MSIL holds a portfolio of 19
models spread across hatchback, sedan and premium SUV segments including its light commercial vehicles.
• The company is also looking to add 1Lc units capacity at Manesar by Apr '24. To meet the market demand MSIL board has approved adding 1mn
units capacity in addition to the existing capacity 2.25 mn in the long term.
• With strong visibility over EV launch in FY25E and renewed focus on fuel efficient models such as CNG/hybrid plus strong line-up for SUVs we
expect MSIL to regain its lost market share (despite short term weakness in the hatchback segment).

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 NOCIL Ltd

| Rec. Price: 270-260 | Target: 300-325 | Upside: 13%-23% | Technical Outlook

• NOCIL has broken above the 248 level on the

quarterly chart, confirming the breakout from
a Descending Triangle pattern in place since
the start of 2021, indicating a potential
continuation of the medium-term uptrend.
• The principle of change in polarity suggests
that the previous resistance level at 200 is
expected to transform into a support level,
reinforcing its significance in the current
market dynamics.
• Anticipating upward movement, we expect
the stock to reach 300, representing a 38%
Fibonacci extension of the recent rally, with
potential to challenge the recent swing high of
325.

Fundamental Outlook
• NOCIL Limited, a part of the Arvind Mafatlal Group, is India’s largest manufacturer of rubber chemicals. With a commendable track record of over 40
years, NOCIL has established itself as a reliable global entity, earning the trust of customers across 40 countries worldwide.
• NOCIL faces short-term challenges as a global situation continues to evolve and demand for its product continues to remain weak in the medium
term. The company is ambitious about increasing its market share over the long term and expanding into adjacencies.
• The company is currently operating at 65% capacity utilisation in Q2FY24. This 65% capacity utilisation is carried out before debottlenecking.
Exports contributed 30-35% of the overall revenues.
• Various external problems such as geopolitical tension, recessionary trends and China's aggressive dumping have affected sales volumes and
realisation in Q2FY24. The company is working on new tie-ups with upcoming capacities to support growth in the medium term. This can trigger a
new leg of growth for the company as it expects to capture market share from other players.

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 Patanjali Foods Ltd

| Rec. Price: 1550-1490 | Target: 1835-1950 | Upside: 21%-28% | Technical Outlook

• Nifty FMCG is in a robust uptrend, delivering

a 26% YTD return. The quarterly chart
reveals a higher high-low formation, signaling
strong upward momentum.
• The stock has entered a larger consolidation
phase, forming an ascending triangular
pattern since mid of 2021..
• Breaking above the consolidation at 1500 this
month, it is poised for an uptrend following
the pattern breakout.
• The monthly strength indicator RSI is in a
bullish mode and holding above its reference
line indicating positive bias.
• We expect the stock to sustained upward
momentum following the breakout, we project
a target range of 1835-1950 for the stock

Fundamental Outlook
• Incorporated in 1986, Patanjali Foods Limited (formerly known as Ruchi Soya Industries Limited) is one of India’s top FMCG and FMHG player in
India. The company is present in Edible Oils, Food & FMCG and Wind Power Generation segments via a bouquet of brands like Patanjali, Ruchi
Gold, Nutrela, etc.
• Patanjali oil business was impacted on account of volatility in commodity prices, however management expects oil business is likely to see
profitability in H2FY24 and maintain its EBITDA margins guidance of 2-4% over long term.
• Food and FMCG business continues to remain strong on back of distribution expansion and new product launches.
• Long term growth driver – premiumisation, distribution expansion and foray into new categories.

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 Punjab National Bank Ltd

| Rec. Price: 90-85 | Target: 105-113 | Upside: 20%-29% | Technical Outlook

• Nifty PSU Bank index has broken above a

multiple resistance zone around the 4500
level, a level not seen since 2011.
• PNB established a support base at the 26
level, undergoing a two-year consolidation
before successfully breaking above said level.
• The stock is currently demonstrating an
upward-sloping channel pattern, having
recently found support at the lower band and
is now advancing towards the upper band,
suggesting potential bullish momentum.
• The monthly strength indicator RSI is in a
bullish mode and holding above its reference
line indicating positive bias.
• We expect the stock to move towards 105
and may eventually head towards 113 level.

Fundamental Outlook
• PNB is a government owned bank with a pan-India presence. The bank has a distribution network of over 10,000 branches and over 12,500 ATMs.
More than 60% of its branches are located in the rural and semi-urban markets. PNB's CRAR/Tier I Capital stood at 15.1%/12.0% as on Sep'23.
• The bank's global advances stood at Rs 9.4 Tn with RAM advances (Retail, Agri and MSME) constituting ~55% of the portfolio, the balance being
corporate loans. The global deposits for the bank stood at Rs 13.1 Tn with CASA Ratio at ~42.2%.
• PNB's GNPA in Sep'23 stood at 6.96%. The banks has highlighted that the quality of loans sanctioned/disbursed post-COVID has lower
delinquencies. Thus, the slippages from the post-COVID pool are expected to remain low.

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 Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd

| Rec. Price: 150-142 | Target: 185-200 | Upside: 27%-37% | Technical Outlook

• RCF underwent a broader consolidation
within the 145-25 range. This month, the
stock broke out above the consolidation zone
and is poised to witness an uptrend following
the breakout.
• The increase in volume activity at the
breakout signifies heightened market
participation, underlining increased interest
and potential momentum at the breakout
point.
• The quarterly strength indicator RSI is in a
bullish mode and holding above its reference
line indicating positive bias.
• Following the consolidation breakout, the
stock is anticipated to maintain upward
momentum, targeting the range of 185-200.

Fundamental Outlook
• Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers is a public sector undertaking (PSU) with 75% stake owned by Government of India. Company is engaged in
manufacturing and marketing of fertilizers and industrial chemicals. RCF is the first PSU in fertilizer sector to be elevated to NAVRATNA Category.
• RCF operates in two business divisions that is Industrial and Fertilizers. It produces industrial chemicals at both its units Thal and Trombay. During
the year, Company produced approx. 5.79 lakh MT of various major industrial chemical products.
• Company has enhanced the production of Suphala NPK (15:15:15) by installation of additional spherodizer and associated system. During FY23,
highest ever production (6.382 Lakh MT) of Suphala (15:15:15) was achieved. Company is setting-up liquid Nano Urea plant of 75 KL per day at
RCF Trombay unit using indigenous technology, developed by M/s IFFCO.
• The company could benefit from an expansion of its NPK fertilisers base due to the strong demand and dependence on imports in the country.

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 Voltas Ltd.

| Rec. Price: 960-930 | Target: 1055-1170 | Upside: 12%-24% | Technical Outlook

• BSE Consumer Durables Index, in an uptrend

since 2021, recently broke above the swing
high at 47440, indicating a potential
continuation of the upward momentum
• Voltas experienced profit booking after
reaching a top at 1356. Finding support at
785, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement of the rally from 427 to 1356, the
stock has formed a medium-term support
base.
• After consolidating for almost a year, the
stock broke out above the range, supported
by strong volume, signaling a reversal of the
trend.
• The stock is anticipated to reach 1055 and
potentially advance further towards the 1170.

Fundamental Outlook
• Voltas Limited (VOLT) established in 1954, is India’s largest air conditioning company offering comprehensive range of cooling and
home appliance products.
• It provides mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) services to International as well as domestic clients in areas of infrastructure.
• The company holds the market leadership position in the room air conditioners (RAC) segment of 21.6% in FY23.
• It operates in unitary cooling products (UCP), Electro-Mechanical Projects & Services (EMPS) and Engineering Products & Services
(EPS) segments contributing revenue of 69%, 25% and 6% respectively.

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 Wipro Ltd

| Rec. Price: 455-442 | Target: 530-570 | Upside: 18%-27% | Technical Outlook

• Nifty IT index consolidates within 32,000-

26,000 levels since mid of 2022. Recent
breakout above the consolidation zone
suggests the initiation of an uptrend.
• Wipro, mirroring the Nifty IT index, entered
consolidation since mid-2022 within the 445-
360 range, supported by an increase in
volume.
• Anticipating a strong uptrend in Nifty IT,
Wipro is poised to participate in the IT rally
post-breakout.
• Expecting continued upward momentum, our
projection for the stock price targets the range
of 530-570, in alignment with the 50% and
61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the
decline spanning 740 to 352.

Fundamental Outlook
• IT service provider’s engagement with its partner network has expanded beyond certifications into setup of co-innovation centers,
building industry solutions, ISV partnerships and joint sourcing of deals.
• Wipro management has taken cost optimization efforts which help them to gain long term sustainable operating margins.
• Wipro deal pipeline in FY23 and H1FY24 remained strong despite of having near term challenges.Wipro won many large transformation
deals despite uncertainty and across verticals like BFSI, Communication, manufacturing, Automobile. This healthy deal pipeline will help
to improve revenue visibility for FY24E and FY25E.

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 Past Performance of Technical Stock Picks 2023
In the Yearly Technical Outlook for 2023, 6 out of the 11 stock picks successfully reached both targets, and 3 stocks achieved the first
target. Currently, 2 calls remain open. The overall technical outlook 2023 stock picks delivered an average return of 19%.

BUY BUY Target Target

STOCK Remark Return(%)
First Second First Second

State Bank of India Ltd 590 570 675 740 Open 9%

Tata Steel Ltd 114 110 128 140 TGT 1 Achieved 21%

Bharat Forge Ltd 850 820 980 1000 TGT 2 Achieved 18%

HDFC Ltd 2600 2500 3000 3200 High of 2927 13%

Larsen & Toubro Ltd>>TGT2 2030 1950 2300 2500 TGT 2 Achieved 23%

Bharti Airtel Ltd 800 770 950 1000 TGT 2 Achieved 25%

Britannia Industries Ltd 4150 4050 5000 5500 TGT 1 Achieved 25%

Infosys Ltd 1480 1440 1700 1800 Open 6%

Ultratech Cement Ltd>>TGT2 6850 6750 8000 8500 TGT 2 Achieved 24%

Sun Pharmaceutical Ltd 990 960 1100 1200 TGT 2 Achieved 21%

Coromandel International Ltd>TGT2 880 850 1000 1080 TGT 2 Achieved 23%

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 Disclosures:

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

1. Axis Securities Ltd. (ASL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000297. ASL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services,
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Research Team
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2 Vaishnavi Jagtap Technical Analyst vaishnavi.jagtap@axissecurities.in

3 Rayyan Kuwari Technical Analyst rayyan.kuwari@axissecurities.in

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