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N°° 5 – Risks
Module N

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Safety Module10

Management
Phased approach to SMS
i l
implementation
i

System Module8 Module9

SMS planning SMS operation

Module5 Module6 Module7

Risks SMS regulation Introduction to SMS

Module3
Module1 Module2 Module4
Introduction to safety
SMS course introduction Basic safety concepts Hazards
management

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Risks

At the end of this module, participants will

be able to apply the fundamentals of risk
management through a case study.

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• First fundamental – Risk management

• Second fundamental – Risk probability
• Third fundamental – Risk severity
• Fourth fundamental ‐ Risk assessment and tolerability
• Fifth fundamental – Risk control/mitigation
• Risk management warm‐up exercises
• Questions and answers
• Points to remember
• Exercise 05/01 – Accident of a Boeing B‐747 at an
International Airport (See Handout N° 4)

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What is it?
• The identification, analysis and elimination, and/or
mitigation to an acceptable level of risks that threaten
the capabilities of an organization.

Wh
Whatt iis th
the objective?
bj ti ?
• Aims at a balanced allocation of resources to address
all risks and viable risk control and mitigation.

Why is it important?
• A key component of safety management systems.
• Data‐driven approach to safety resources allocation,
allocation
thus defensible and easier to explain.
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Intolerable region The risk is

unacceptable
at any level

As If the risk can

Tolerable region be mitigated, it
Low
is acceptable.
As Cost benefit
Reasonably analysis
l i
Practicable required.

Acceptable The risk is acceptable

region
i as it
i currently
l stands
d

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Definition(s)
Probability – The likelihood that an unsafe event or
condition might occur.

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Questions for assessing the probability of an

occurrence:
• Is there a history of occurrences like the one being
assessed,, or is the occurrence an isolated event?
• What other equipment, or similar type
components, might have similar defects?

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… questions such:
• What number of operating or maintenance
personnel must follow the procedure (s) in
question?
• How frequently is the equipment or procedure
under assessment used?

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Probability of occurrence
Qualitative
Meaning Value
definition

Frequent Likely to occur many times (has occurred frequently) 5

Occasional Likely to occur some times (has occurred infrequently) 4

Remote Unlikely,
y but possible
p to occur ((has occurred rarely)
y) 3

Improbable Very unlikely to occur (not known to have occurred) 2

Extremely
improbable
Almost inconceivable that the event will occur 1

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Definition(s)
( )
Severity – The possible consequences of an unsafe
event or condition,, taking
g as reference the worst
foreseeable situation.

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Risks

Define the severity in terms of:

• Property
• Health
• Finance
• Liabilityy
• People
• Environment
• Image
• Public confidence

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Risks

Questions for assessing the severity of an occurrence:

How many lives are at risk?
• Employees
• Passengers
• Bystanders
• G
General
l public
bli

What is the environmental impact?

• Spill
S ill off ffuell or other
th h hazardous
d product
d t
• Physical disruption of natural habitat

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… questions:
What is the severity of the property or financial damage?
• Direct operator property loss
• Damage to aviation infrastructure
• Third party damage
• Financial impact and economic impact for the State

Are there organizational, management or regulatory

implications that might generate larger threats to public
safety?

What are the likely political implications and/or media

interest?

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Risks
Severity
y of occurrences
Aviation
Meaning Value
definition
• Equipment destroyed
Catastrophic
p • Multiple deaths A
• A large reduction in safety margins, physical distress or a workload
such that the operators cannot be relied upon to perform their tasks
Hazardous accurately or completely. B
• Serious injury or death to a number of people.
• Major equipment damage
• A significant reduction in safety margins, a reduction in the ability of
the operators to cope with adverse operating conditions as a result
of increase in workload, or as a result of conditions impairing their
Major efficiency. C
• Serious incident
incident.
• Injury to persons.
• Nuisance.
• Operating limitations.
Minor • Use of emergency procedures. D
• Minor incident
incident.

Negligible • Little consequences E

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Risk severity

Catastrophic Hazardous Major Minor Negligible

Risk
probability A B C D E

5 – Frequent 5A 5B 5C 5D 5E

4 – Occasional 4A 4B 4C 4D 4E

3 – Remote 3A 3B 3C 3D 3E

2 – Improbable 2A 2B 2C 2D 2E

1 – Extremely
E t l
improbable
1A 1B 1C 1D 1E

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Assessment risk index Suggested criteria

Unacceptable under the existing
5A, 5B, 5C, 4A, 4B, 3A circumstances

Risk control/mitigation requires

5D,5E, 4C, 3B, 3C, 2A, 2B management decision

Acceptable after
4D, 4E, 3D, 2C, 1A, 1B review of the operation

3E 2D
3E, 2D, 2E
2E, 1C
1C, 1D
1D, 1E Acceptable

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Risks

Identify the hazards to equipment

, property
, HAZARD
personnel or the organization
. IDENTIFICATION

Identify the risk(s) and assess RISK ASSESSMENT

the chances of it (them) occurring? Probability

Evaluate the seriousness of the risk(s) RISK ASSESSMENT

occurring Severity

Is the consequent risk(s) acceptable and within RISK ASSESSMENT

the organization
organization’ss safety performance criteria? Tolerability

NO
YES Take action to reduce RISK
A
Accept
t the
th risk(s)
i k( ) the risk(s) to an CONTROL/MITIGATION
acceptable level

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Definition(s)
Mitigation – Measures to eliminate the potential
hazard or to reduce the risk probability or severity.
• Risk mitigation = Risk control

(Mitigate – To make milder,

milder less severe or less harsh)

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Strategies
Avoidance
A oidance – The operation or activity
acti it is
cancelled because risks exceed the benefits
of continuing the operation or activity.
• Operations into an aerodrome surrounded by
complex geography and without the necessary
aids are cancelled.
cancelled

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Strategies
Reduction –The frequency of the operation
or activity is reduced, or action is taken to
reduce the magnitude of the consequences
off the
h accepted d risks.
k
• Operations into an aerodrome surrounded by
complex geography and without the necessary
aids are limited to day‐time, visual conditions.

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Strategies
Segregation of exposure – Action is taken
to isolate the effects of risks or build‐in
redundancy to protect against it.
• Operations into an aerodrome
O d surrounded
d db by
complex geography are limited to aircraft with
specific navigation capabilities.
• N RVSM equipped
Non i d aircraft
i f not allowed
ll d to
operate into RVSM airspace.

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Recalling the three basic defences in aviation:

• Technology
• Training
• Regulations

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As part of the risk mitigation, determine:

• D defences
Do d f to
t protect
t t against
i t such
h risk
i k (s)
( ) exist?
i t?
• Do defences function as intended?
• Are the defences p
practical for use under actual
working conditions?
• Is staff involved aware of the risks and the defences
in place?
• Are additional risk mitigation measures required?

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Hazard Assessment of the Controll and
C d Accepting the
identification defences within mitigation mitigation of
and the risk
risk management the safety system of the risk (s)

H H H H Does the mitigation

address the hazard?
Regulations Does it address the
risk(s)?
EACH HAZARD Training I iit effective?
Is ff i ?
Is it appropriate?
Technology
Is additional or
R R R R differen
tmitigation warranted?
EACH RISK Do the mitigation
strategies generate
additional risk(s)

Feedback (Safety assurance)

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Risks

There is no such thing as absolute safety – In aviation it is

not possible to eliminate all risks.
Risks can be managedg to a level “as low as reasonably y
practicable” (ALARP)
Risk mitigation must be balanced against:
• time
• cost
• difficulty of taking measures to reduce or eliminate the
risk (i.e. managed).
Effective risk management seeks to maximize the
benefits of accepting a risk (a reduction in time and
cost) while minimizing the risk itself.
Communicate the rationale for risk decisions to ggain
acceptance by stakeholders affected by them.

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Risks

A safety concern is perceived

Feedback and Identify hazards and assess risks

record the
hazard
identification Define
D fi ththe llevell off Define
D fi ththe llevell off
and severity probability
assessment
and/or risk Define the level
mitigation
of risk

Iss the
t e risk
s level
e e acceptab
acceptable?
e No
Take action and
continue the Yes
operation

Can the risk be eliminated? No

Take action and
continue the Yes
operation

Yes Can the risk be mitigated?

Take action and Can the residual risk Cancel the

continue the Y
Yes be accepted
b d (If any)?
)? No operation
i
operation

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Scenario:
S i
Fuel spill on the apron area surface of approximately 25
m (75 ft)) length
g and 5 m ((155 ft)) width,, p
produced byy an
A310 ready to pushback and taxi for departure.

Report
p by
y the apron
p responsible
p p
person:
After the A310 pushback the spill was contained and the
apron area was decontaminated.

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Risks

Hazard:
Risk probability

Risk severity

Risk(s):
Risk index

Risk
t l bilit
tolerability

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Scenario:
It was observed that airline baggage handling personnel
generates FOD on the aerodrome apron area .
Report by the apron responsible personnel:
It should be noted that airline baggage handling
personnel are not complying with safety standards as
set in the aerodrome operating manual. This is
considered a hazard that can produce incident or
accident in the movement area.

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Risks

Hazard:
Risk probability

Risk severity

Risk(s):
Risk index

Risk
t l bilit
tolerability

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Scenario:
A parked aircraft shows damage in the left wing root
near the fuselage. Such damage was caused by a
g the aircraft as a consequence
maintenance stair hitting q of
the wind, apparently because the stair was not properly
restrained .
Report
p by
y the apron
p responsible
p p
person:
In conditions of strong winds it is essential that all
equipment around aircraft is properly restrained and
locked, thus preventing the possibility of aircraft
d
damage.

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Risks

Hazard:
Risk probability

Risk severity

Risk(s):
Risk index

Risk
t l bilit
tolerability

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Scenario:
The vehicle and ramp equipment parking area behind
the fingers shows a large amount of FO(D) (food, trays,
plastics, pillows, etc.) left behind by an airline.

Report by the apron responsible person:

The presence of decomposed food and others
dangerous material was informed to the airline,
airline since in
addition to FO(D), this presents a bacteriological
danger for people who operate in this sector, also
attracting animals to the operative apron.

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Risks

Hazard:
Risk probability

Risk severity

Risk(s):
Risk index

Risk
t l bilit
tolerability

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Scenario:
A loose wheel, apparently from a baggage cart, was
observed in the handling area. The driver apparently did
not notice what happened. The wheel rolled at high speed
through
h h the
h area, hitting
hi i the h fence
f accessing
i the
h fuel
f l zone.
Report by the apron responsible person:
This could have caused injuries to ramp personnel in
addition
dditi tot material
t i l damage
d to
t equipment
i t and/or
d/
aerodrome facilities. We have insisted in the past on the
periodic verification of all equipment and vehicles that
operate
ope ate in tthee ae
aerodrome
od o e ap
apron
o aarea.
ea.

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Risks

Hazard:
Risk probability

Risk severity

Risk(s):
Risk index

Risk
t l bilit
tolerability

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Risks

Scenario:
The absence of airline personnel attending the stairs was
observed in three occasions, in flights from different
companies.
i ThThe presence off airline
i li personnell iis necessary
to guide passengers when embarking and disembarking.
Report by the apron responsible personnel:
This is a risk for passengers, since they should access the
apron to board aircraft in an orderly manner under the
guidance of airline personnel.

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Risks

Hazard:
Risk probability

Risk severity

Risk(s):
Risk index

Risk
t l bilit
tolerability

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Risks – Questions & Answers

Q: Define risk management.

A: ?

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Q: What are the five designations for risk probability?

A: ?

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Q: Name the five designations of risk severity.

A: ?

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Q: Describe the three basic risk mitigation strategies.

A: ?

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1.
1 The risk assessment matrix.
matrix
2. The risk assessment criteria table.
3 Risk mitigation: avoid,
3. avoid reduce
reduce, segregate
segregate.

Reference: Doc 9859, Chapter 6

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Module N°
N° 5 is concluded

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