REPUBLIC OF KENYA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK, FISHERIES AND IRRIGATION

STATE DEPARTMENT FOR CROPS DEVELOPMENT

NATIONAL AVOCADO PROMOTION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

2020-2030

July 2020
Table of Content

Contents
List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................ vii
List of Figures .............................................................................................................................................. viii
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... ix
1.0 Background ............................................................................................................................................10
1.1 Global Avocado Production ...............................................................................................................11
1.2 Export Countries ................................................................................................................................12
1.3 Import Countries ................................................................................................................................13
1.4 Value Addition and Processing ..........................................................................................................13
1.5 Avocado Industry in Africa .................................................................................................................14
1.6 Production in Africa ...........................................................................................................................15
1.7 Exports in Africa .................................................................................................................................16
1.8 Imports in Africa ................................................................................................................................17
1.9 Value Addition and Processing in Africa ............................................................................................18
2.0 Background of Kenya .............................................................................................................................21
2.1 Current Production ............................................................................................................................22
2.2 Issues affecting Production of Avocado ............................................................................................24
2.3 Marketing Pillar..................................................................................................................................27
2.3.1 Exports in Africa ..........................................................................................................................27
2.3.2 Import in Africa ...........................................................................................................................28
2.4 Quality Pillar .......................................................................................................................................31
2.4.1 Issues affecting Quality of Avocados ..........................................................................................31
2.5 Value Addition and Processing Pillar .................................................................................................32
2.5.1 Issues Affecting Value Addition and Processing of Avocado ......................................................32
2.6 Profitability Pillar ...............................................................................................................................33
2.6.1 Issues Affecting Profitability .......................................................................................................34
2.7 Situation Analysis ...............................................................................................................................37
2.7.1 Value Chain Analysis ...................................................................................................................37
2.7.2 Stakeholder Analysis ...................................................................................................................38
2.7.3 SWOT Analysis: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats .......................................42
2.7.4 Legal and Policy Institutional Framework that Support Avocado Growing ...............................44
3.0 Strategic Direction .................................................................................................................................45
3.1 Justification ........................................................................................................................................45
3.2 Vision..................................................................................................................................................45
 3.3 Mission ...............................................................................................................................................45
3.4 Goal ....................................................................................................................................................46
3.5 Strategic Approach ............................................................................................................................46
3.5.1 Strategic Pillar No 1: Increase Production ..................................................................................48
3.5.2: Strategic Pillar No 2: Improve Marketing of Avocado ...............................................................50
3.5.3: Strategic Pillar No 3: Improve Quality of Avocado ....................................................................52
3.4.4: Strategic Pillar No 4: Improving Value Addition/Processing of Avocado ..................................53
3.5.5: Strategic Pillar No 5: Improving Profitability of Avocado Farmers ............................................54
4.0 Implementation of the strategy ............................................................................................................55
4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................55
4.2 Implementation of the strategy ........................................................................................................56
5.0 Monitoring and Evaluation for Avocado Promotion Strategy ...............................................................63
5.1 Avocado Promotion Information System ..........................................................................................63
5.2 Purpose for the Monitoring Framework ...........................................................................................63
6.0 Annexes ..................................................................................................................................................64
Annex I: Implementation Matrix .............................................................................................................64
Annex II: The Vision Data .........................................................................................................................75
Annex III: Value Pre-Position to Investors ..............................................................................................80
Acknowledgements
The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries & Cooperatives wishes to acknowledge with deep
gratitude the Avocado Promotion Strategy development participants whose tireless efforts have
made the development of this first National Avocado Promotion Strategic Plan (NAPSP) for Kenya
a reality. Special thanks go to RTI for the financial support and the co-facilitation of the process.
Special thanks are due to Josephine Songa, the Director, Agricultural Policy & Institutional
Capacity Development -USAID-FTF Kenya Crops and Dairy Market Systems Development
Activity (KCDMS), leadership and supporting the process, Dr. Dominic Menjo – ODP, for the
technical support
We also recognize with sincere appreciation, the contribution of key members of staff from
MOALFC, AFA-HCD, FPEAK, KALRO, FPC and NHWG for their consistent engagement from
initial brainstorming workshops, technical reviews and writing workshop and final scrutiny of the
strategy document.

It is from the very vibrant and selfless engagements of various stakeholders throughout the
process that we have put forth a vision, setting us on a trajectory that will ensure achievement of
both our national and county commitments towards sustainable and commercial and Viable
Avocado industry. We are grateful to all who contributed in one way or another in the
development of this strategy document, who may not have been mentioned here. Kindly take this
acknowledgement as an expression of sincere gratitude.
Foreword
Acronyms and Abbreviations

AFA Agricultural Food Authority

ASK Avocado Society of Kenya
CA Conservation Agriculture
CAADP Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
EPC Export Promotion Council
EU European Union
FAO Food Agriculture Organization
FAOSTAT Food Agricultural Organization Statistics
FPC Fresh Produce Cooperation
FPEAK Fresh Produce Association of Kenya
GAP Good Agricultural Practices
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council
GDP Gross Domestic Product
HCD Horticultural Crops Directorate
ITC International Trade Centre
KAEA Kenya Avocado Exporters Association
KALRO Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization
KARI Kenya Agricultural Research Institute
KEPHIS Plant Health Inspectorate Service
KES Kenya Shillings
MIS Management Information System
NAPSP National Avocado Promotion Strategy Plan
PCP Pest Control Products
PFE Pest Free Area
PPP Public Private Partnership
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SGR Standard Grade Railway
SWOT Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats
TA Technical Advisor
TAHA Tanzania Horticulture Association
TMR Transparency Market Research
TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training
UAE United Arab Emirates
UK United Kingdom
USAID United States Assistance in Development
USD United States Dollars
List of Tables

Table 1: Top 15 World Avocado Exporting Countries ..........................................................................12

Table 2: Top 19 African Countries Producing Avocado (tons) ...........................................................16
Table 3: Avocado export and imports– by country, Volume and value in 2017 ..............................16
Table 4: African Countries Importing outside the Continent .............................................................18
Table 5: Production and Value of Avocado in selected Counties - 2017 through 2018 ..................23
Table 6: Countries where Kenya exports Fresh and Dried Avocados (2014-2018).........................27
Table 7: Kenya's top import trade partners ‘1000’ tons ......................................................................29
Table 8: Profit and Loss Model Margin Analysis .................................................................................33
Table 9: Value Chain Actors ....................................................................................................................38
Table 10: Logical Framework ..................................................................................................................56
Table 11: Implementation Matrix ...........................................................................................................64
List of Figures

Figure 1: World tropical fruits by export volumes in 2018 .................................................................11

Figure 2: Global Avocado production for major producing countries in 2018 ................................12
Figure 3: Top Avocado Importers by volume 2012 - 2016 ..................................................................13
Figure 4: Africa’s Top Exporters in 2017. ..............................................................................................17
Figure 5: Kenya’s Avocado Exports 2001-2017 ....................................................................................27
Figure 6: Relationships among key stakeholders .................................................................................37
Figure 7: Strategic Goal and Objectives ................................................................................................46
Executive Summary
 Chapter One

1.0 Background
As per Kenya’s development blueprint Vision 2030, agriculture is identified as a key component
in the economic pillar and its envisioned to contribute 10% towards national economic growth.
Besides, the Big 4 Transformative Agenda gave agriculture the mandate to ensure achievement
of 100% food and nutrition security within 2018-2022 period. It contributes about 33% of total
Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The sector contributes an additional 27% to GDP through
linkages with manufacturing and service-related sectors. The sector employs more than 40% of
the total population and about 70% of the rural population (ASTGS 2018). Further, Agricultural
sector accounts for 65 per cent of the country’s export earnings.
In 2019, horticulture contributed 26% of the agricultural GDP and continues to register an
annual growth rate of approximately 15%1. The 26% translated to Ksh 142.7 billion generated
from exports of flowers, vegetables and fruits accounting for 70%, 23% and 7% respectively2. In
the same year, the value of fruits export earnings increased to Ksh 13.2 billion which was an
increase of 3% from 2018. The major fruits export that contributed included avocado, mango and
passion among others. The volume of avocado fruit exported in 2018 was 64,477 tons valued at
Kshs 10.8 billion which decreased by 7.9 % in 2019. Avocado remains the single highest exported
fruit accounting for 80% of the total earning in 20193.

Globally avocado has experienced a fast-increasing demand due in part to the international
popularity and its global recognition as a “super food” based on multiple health benefits. Various
sources confirm the value of avocado as being rich in healthy mono and poly unsaturated fats,
protein and an array of vitamins including Vitamin A, B1, B2, B6, B12, C, D, E, and K. The fruit
also contains dietary fibers, minerals that are essential for healthy human growth which include
calcium, potassium, phosphorus, sodium and magnesium which are needed for a healthy diet.
It’s also documented that steady intake of avocado fights inflammation and may contain
anticancer properties.

Eating avocado equally helps better absorption of other fat-soluble nutrients and lowers glycemic
index. Regular consumption of avocado is similarly associated with reduced prevalence of
diabetes, stroke and pressure. Because of these nutritional values, avocado has recently
developed a large market as a fresh fruit, salads, and value-added products such as yourghut,
smoothies, guacamole and frozen products and pastes. It’s also processed and used in
pharmaceutical and cosmetic industry as well as in crude and refined oils (Téliz, 2000).

The trade of avocado in the world market has been growing steadily in the past two decades. It is
no longer considered an exotic fruit but part of the everyday diet for many people in different
countries. Currently, avocado holds 30% among the major tropical export fruits as shown in Fig
1 below.

1 FAO Report 2018

2 HCD report 2019
3 HCD 2019 – Un-validated report
Figure 1: World tropical fruits by export volumes in 2018

In 2019 it is estimated that the world consumed in excess of 6 million tons of fruit and it is
predicted to rise by 15% annually4. In the US the consumption has risen from 220,000 tons in
1985 to 1,323,000 tons in 2019, which is nearly to an average of 5 kilos per person 5, whilst
Europe consumed 650,000 tons and is expected increase to more than 1,100,000 in 2020. The
other big consumers are France, at approximately 2.1 kg/capita, Germany 1.0 kg/capita, and
Spain 1.5 kg/capita among others. Consumption in China is growing at a fast rate but currently
approximated at 120,000 tons.
In addition, avocado production worldwide creates direct and indirect employment to millions
of people, such as producers, marketers, processors, and consumers. This reflects the growing
potential and importance of the avocado crop as a contributor to various facets of economic
development, boosting household incomes, and diversification of enterprises. A number of jobs
are created in production, marketing and processing sub-sector annually both regular and part-
time during peak periods.
1.1 Global Avocado Production
On the backdrop of a rapidly growing global demand, world avocado production has continued
to grow in the last decade. According to FAO and the International Trade Centre (ITC), global
production of avocado has steadily increased over the years and rose from 5.62 million tons in
2016 to 6.3 million in 2018, representing 12 percent increase6. According to the Transparency
Market Research report of 2020 80% of the world’s avocado is produced by 11 countries. Mexico
leads this list with 33.9%. Fig 2 here below shows global avocado production for major producing
countries in 2018.

4 World Avocado Association

5 Inspira Farm Avocado data Analysis 2020
6 FAO-Major Tropical Fruits Market Review 2018
Figure 2: Global Avocado production for major producing countries in 2018

Source: Statista 2020

Globally, there are many varieties, although two types of cultivars stand out. Type “A” cultivars
consists of Hass – the most popular variety traded internationally followed by green-skinned
varieties such as Choquette, Lula, Reed, Pinkerton, Gwen, Maluma, while Type “B” cultivars
include, Ettinger, Sharwil, Zutano, Brogden, Fuerte, Cleopatra, Bacon, and Monroe among
others.
1.2 Export Countries
In 2019, the value of avocado export rose from US$ 6.1 billion in 2018 to US$ 6.5 billion7 an
increase of 6% and is predicted to attain an overall value of US$ 21.56 billion by 20268. The
market is further projected to show a healthy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9%
every year during the forecast period of 2018-2026. Ninety percent of these international trade
is covered by 6 exporting countries namely Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Spain, Chile and Kenya.
Table 1 here below shows the top 15 world avocado exporting countries by value and percentage.
Table 1: Top 15 World Avocado Exporting Countries

Country Value in (USD) Global % of total exported

avocados
Mexico 2.8 billion 42.9%
Netherlands 1 billion 15.9%
Peru 751.3 million 11.6%
Spain 392 million 6%
Chile 300.7 million 4.6%
Colombia 175.4 million 2.7%

7 ICT, trade map 2020

8 Transparency Market Research (TMR) 2018 report
 United States 154.3 million 2.4%
Kenya $137.8 million 2.1%
France 91.6 million 1.4%
Dominican Republic 86.9 million 1.3%
Israel: 73.1 million 1.1%
South Africa 70.8 million 1.1%
Belgium: 70.3 million 1.1%
New Zealand 69.6 million 1.1%
Morocco: 51.4 million 0.8%

Worldwide, avocados exports by country totaled US$ 6.5 billion in 2019. That dollar value
reflects an 83.9% increase for all avocados shippers over the five-year period starting in 2014.
1.3 Import Countries
According to Fresh Plaza https.//.www.freshplaza.com (April 2020) Overview of Avocado
Market, states that avocado demand has been gradually rising with an annual growth rate of 18%
for the past five years. In 2018, imports stood at 2.5 million tons valued at US$ 6.1 billion. The
US, Netherlands and France accounted for over 55% of total world imports translating to 1.5
million tons of fresh or dried avocados worth 3.5 billion dollars. The was also replicated in 2019,
with the US as the top importer, representing 41% of global imports. Second was the
Netherlands, representing 9% of total global imports, France and Germany followed with
6.8% and 5.3% respectively. Fig 3 tabulates the top 5 avocado importers by 2016.

Figure 3: Top Avocado Importers by volume 2012 - 2016

Source: Garay Company Analysis

1.4 Value Addition and Processing

Avocado is currently processed into various products including pharmaceuticals, cosmetics,

cuisines and crude and refined oils. In 2018, the avocado processing market reached a world
value of US$ 1.7 Billion. According to the IMARC Group projections, it expects the avocado world
market to reach US$2.7 billion by 2024 growing at a CAGR of around 8% during 2019-2024.
Some of examples of value added or avocado processed products in the world include: Avocado
Cheese Potato Stick Snack, Calbee Jagariko in Japan, Avocado Honey, Pirkka Parhaat
Avokadohunaja in Finland, Cubed Avocado, Coop Tärnad Avokado in Sweden, Cado Organic
Deep Dark Chocolate Avocado Frozen Dessert in USA, Plum Organics Eat Your Colors Green
Baby Food in USA, Herbal Tea for Detoxification, Darusyifa Alami Teh Dtoxgin in Indonesia,
Waitrose Kiwi, Avocado & Matcha Tea Yogurt in UK, Mama Roz Freshly Squeezed Avocado Juice
in Indonesia, Dr. Chung's Food Vegemil Kiwi Avocado Soy Milk in South Korea, Guacamole
Flavoured Tortilla Chips, El Sabroso Original Guacachip in USA, and Avocado Pulp, Buena Vida
Pulpa de Aguacate in Mexico among others. These value addition to avocado is contributing to
disposable incomes, changing lifestyles, broadening food habits and rising demand of processed
foods, among other applications of the fruit.
Global Opportunities
The market for avocado around the world continues to increase bringing a lot of new
opportunities for avocado producing countries. This is largely due to:

• Investing in increased production and productivity of avocado for export oriented

• Increased awareness of health benefits of consuming avocado, especially in non-
communicable diseases such as diabetes and contents of anti-cancer properties.
• A world population of approximately of 7.8 billion as of March 2020, presents a ready
domestic and international market and demand.
• Existence of large- scale farming. This is one structural improvement to the value chain
that mitigates the impacts from a number of barriers. The development of such farms
offers many benefits: lower losses during harvesting and quality checks, profitable
investment in covered trucks and improved long-term relationships with importers
• Expanding employment especially in the lower and middle class across the world
• According to Technavio Market Research 2019, the avocado market will be accelerating
at a CAGR of over 6%. This will be an incremental growth of 4.37 billion from 2019 –
2024. The year-over-year growth rate for 2020 is estimated at 5.4%, while North America
will grow by 51% of total global growth.
• Across the world, the area under avocado production is expanding and attracting more
people into production and engagement.
• The attractive profits from avocado enterprises are inviting more people to join in the
various value chain enterprises
Global Challenges
The avocado production has its drawbacks such as:

• The fruits are grown as a mono-crop

• The perennial nature of the crop implies the trees grow for many years hence depleting
the soil fertility and water resource
• Excessive use of water. According to research, avocado production is estimated to
consume approximately,1981 m3/ton of water meaning that avocado has a strong impact
on water level,
• Destruction of the natural environment to create space for avocado orchards
• Environmental pollution due to use of agro-inputs, to meet global market requirements
and standards
• Social problems associated with control of the avocado trade, for instance, Mexican has
been invested with avocado cartels.
• There many mushrooming local varieties whose potential is not known.
• Sale of premature fruits affecting the market
1.5 Avocado Industry in Africa
Avocado industry in Africa is production and export oriented. Recent statistics show demand
rising considerably and continues to attract more interest both in planted areas and export –
especially due to its nutritive values. In 2018 the production from top 19 countries was
approximately 1,189,942 tons. Eventhough local consumption remains low and varies across the
countries. For instance, Kenya has a per capita consumption of 4.5% and South Africa consumes
25% of her total production and 20% of processed products, such as avocado oil and guacamole.
Despite the low consumption rates, Africa’s avocado production and sales have largely improved
in the last one decade. In 2018 the 19 major producing countries had an estimated total value of
US$ 2,631 million. These attractive incomes have led to changes of land use in some African
countries and continues to bode well for additional investment into the sector. For instance, in
Tanzania, the former Kilimanjaro mountains formerly known for arabica coffee are now
transformed to avocado growing regions – converting the 137 hectares and more into avocado
farms, and in South Africa forests are being cleared to pave way for avocado growing as well
grazing land. In Kenya there is paradigm shift to include avocado as a cash crop in the major cash
crop growing areas.
In addition, the avocado industry continues to impact local economies where it provides both
direct and indirect employment to thousands of farmers, particularly to smallholder and many
others along the value chain. They main beneficiaries are the farmers, nursery operators,
transporters, marketing agents, extension service providers, processors and input suppliers. For
instance, in Tanzania, TAHA catalogue report indicates an increased income of over 10,000
smallholder farmers by mid-2020. According to FAO 2000, avocado selling was reported to have
contributed to household incomes in the small villages of Giheta in Burundi. This development
has further reduced vulnerability through risk reduction in crop diversification; improvement in
local environment such as sustainable agriculture; creating out-growers associations; creating
linkages with other local suppliers; land lease fee appreciating upwards and ploughing it back to
communities to initiate development projects; enhancing foreign exchange through export and
generation of government taxes. It is also established that most avocado growers engage in
production due to it is low risk, low input, low maintenance and with a readily available market
worldwide.
1.6 Production in Africa
Avocado production in Africa has steadily grown over the past years from 2005 to 2018, though
unevenly from 297,339 mt in 2005, 751,881 mt in 2012 and 1,189,942 mt in 2018. Africa’s annual
production growth has been closer to the global rate that between 2005 and 2012 averaged at
6.4%. Year-on-year growths have been the highest in Morocco (23%), Tanzania (20%), Rwanda
(18%) and Kenya (10%). In 2016 Kenya was listed as the 6th country in production of avocado
globally. The fruit is largely cultivated by smallholder farmers who are fragmented for both
export and domestic markets. Some of the major producing countries included Kenya, South
Africa, Morocco and Tanzania which currently accounts for 41%, 35%, 13% and 7% respectively9.
Other upcoming countries are Rwanda, DRC, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe among
others. Out of 132 countries that produce avocado globally, 27 countries are in Africa.
For instance, Mozambique is Africa´s newest avocado producer and first exported in 2018 and
has planted approximately 500 hectares and is expanding around 100 hectares per year. South
Africa has planted the most valuable variety - Hass approximately at 62% and dark-skinned at
38% of her total investment (It has about 16,500 hectares of avocado plantations, and the area is
growing by about 1000 hectares a year). Kenya, mainly focuses on Hass and Fuerte, among other
local varieties from her many smallholder farmers alongside few medium and large growers.
Recently she cultivates more of Hass variety and has about 16,501 hectares planted and venturing
into non-traditional areas such as rift valley and western Kenya. Tanzania is also a relative
newcomer with recent entrant into the avocado industry with promising varieties and potential
for high yields and superior quality. It concentrates on Hass and has around 700 hectares of
commercial production. Zimbabwe`s production is too in Hass variety. Other varieties found in
Africa include Pinkerton, Nabal, Puebla and other local green- skinned varieties.

9 Africa Avocado Exports 2017

Also, the almost all-year round production period in Africa ranging from February to November
and being home to some of the finest varieties gives it a competitive edge globally to fall back to
when other big suppliers like Mexico, Peru and Chile are off season. Table 2 below shows the top
19 African countries that grow avocado, their global ranking, production volumes and global
market share as of 201810.
Table 2: Top 19 African Countries Producing Avocado (tons)

S. No Rank Country Production Country % of

globally volumes mts Global
Production
1. 7 Kenya 318,087 3.3
2. 15 Malawi 92,239 1.6
3. 17 Cameroon 75,221 0.2
4. 18 DRC 65,773 0.1
5. 19 South Africa 170,000 1.1
6. 20 Ethiopia 52,389 1.0
7. 22 Morocco 51,170 0.1
8. 23 Ivory Coast 37,983 0.0
9. 25 Madagascar 26,777 0.0
10. 33 Republic of the Congo 65,558 0.2
11. 39 Central Africa 14,014 0.0
Republic
12. 34 Ghana 9,385 0.0
13. 38 Rwanda 145, 000 0.0
14. 45 Zimbabwe 5000 0.0
15. 21 Tanzania 190,00 0.2
16. 34 Uganda 60,000 0.0
17. 46 Mozambique 1000 0.0
18. 62 Tunisia 333 0.0
19. 69 Seychelles 13 0.0

1.7 Exports in Africa

Africa sells her avocado primarily to European Union (with France being the leading buyer),
Middle East, Russia, East and South East Asia as well as to other African countries mainly in
fresh form and frozen. Eventhough, EU is Africa’s first export destination, it also buys from
Mexico, Peru, Chile and Israel. The overall trade to EU has been increasing over the years since
2013 where it imported 251,598 tons, 2014 (305,324), 2015 (343,519), 2016 (446,981), 2017
(486,144) 2018 (607,072), and 2019 (606,438).
Africa also does intra-Africa trade with avocado. There exists trade between Mozambique and
South Africa, Tanzania and Rwanda to Kenya, and other between Uganda, Zambia, Mozambique,
Burundi and Zimbabwe as examples. Other notable trade trends are - South Africa exports more
than 50% of her domestic production and is projected to expand by an annual average of 4% p.a.
in the coming decade, accelerating from 3.4% p.a. over the past ten years. Tanzania, has also
increased her total exports from 1,877 tons to 9,000 tons between 2014 and 2019 reporting an
increased value of 73%, while Nigeria has trade imbalance to the Netherlands, at 99.4% of her
avocado needs. Table 3 below shows avocado exports and imports in selected countries in 2017
and Fig 4 showing top African exporters.
Table 3: Avocado export and imports– by country, Volume and value in 2017

10 Tridge report 2018

 SN Country Export Volume Export Import Import value
in tons value $ 000 Volumes in $000
tons
1. Kenya 51,507 78,020 4,800 254
2. South Africa 43,492 64,117 2,733 7,147
3. Morocco 16,397 46,169 4,417 5,192
4. Tanzania 4,374 4,642 0 0
5. Zimbabwe 2,746 1,691 5 2
6. Uganda 191 37 0 0
7. Mozambique 56 103 23 55
8. Egypt 56 181 329 967
9. Ethiopia 14 40 0 0
10.Burundi 1491 139 0 0
11.Nigeria 0 1 5 26
12.Cameroon 7 2 0 0
13.Central Africa 0 0 1 6
14.Ghana 0 0 0 0
15.Rwanda 16 36 0 0
16.DRC 0 0 1 7
17.Tunisia 0 0 40 37
18.Ivory Coast 0 0 0 0
19.Seychelles 0 0 12 84
20.Ivory Coast 0 0 0 0
21.Malawi 0 0 9 22
Totals 120,347 195,178 12,375 13,799
Source: FAOSTAT 2017

African also exports value-added products in form of cosmetics and oils.

Figure 4: Africa’s Top Exporters in 2017.

1.8 Imports in Africa

Despite the steady increase in production through planted hectares, Africa has not matched the
demand supply side. This has necessitated some countries to import from outside the continent.
For instance, Nigeria, Morocco and Egypt import from Netherlands, and yet Netherlands is not
a primary producer. It imports, improves packaging and re-exports. Its currently the second
global exporter of Avocado after Mexico. South Africa too imports from Spain. Africa’s total
imports of fresh or dried avocados in 2018 amounted to US$ 20 million, accounting for 0.3% of
world imports. Egypt’s imported from Kenya at 3.4% of Kenya’ export volume, and from other
7 countries all valued at US$ 2.41M; South Africa imports were valued at US$ 8,89M from 10
African countries and Spain; Morocco imported from Netherlands, France, South Africa, Peru
and Kenya - valued at US$ 1152.7M; Zimbabwe imported from South Africa valued US$ 49.82
thousand; and Nigeria imported from Netherlands at 99.4%, and South Africa -0.6% of her total
requirement valued at US$ 38,075 thousand. DRC imports are worth US$18,018, from Uganda
(87.2%) and South Africa (12.8%) respectively. In 2018, Ghana imported 300,000 seedlings from
Kenya to boost her local avocado production. Table 4 below shows some of the transactions
outside the continent.
Table 4: African Countries Importing outside the Continent

Importing Importing From % Import value 2018

Country (000)
Nigeria Netherlands 99.4% US$ 238
South Africa 0.6% US$ 38.51
Morocco Netherlands 34.1% 547.30
France 27.2% 436.08
Peru 10.6% 169.32
Egypt Lebanon 7.5% 179.87
Netherlands 3.0% 73.07
United States 0.4% 10.50
Thailand 0.3% 6.60
South Africa Spain 53.9% 4.79M
Israel 12.0 1.07M

The scenario above illustrates that there is unmet need for avocados within the African continent
that Kenya can tap into and expand her markets.
1.9 Value Addition and Processing in Africa
Avocado contain more or less 30% oil depending on the variety. In Africa the value addition is
mainly in oils, cosmetics and cuisines. The oil forms in the fruit is preferred in the cosmetic
industry due to its good penetration qualities into skin pore and contains vitamin A (prevents
dry skin) and vitamin E and B (prevent wrinkling) therefore very vital for the cosmetic industry.
The virgin oil is also gaining popularity due to its high digestability coefficient, excellent keeping
quality and availability of high values of palmitic, oleic and stearic acids as constituents of the
oil. Other processed products include guacamole, yoghurts, smoothies, avocado-topped pizzas,
pastes for flavoring food, making juices, shakes and spread. While the seeds are used nominal in
face and skin mask and briquettes are a substitute for charcoal. South Africa in 2018, out of the
total production estimated at 170, 000 tons, 15% is processed into oil and puree (guacamole), as
well as cosmetics. Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya also do a bit of cosmetics and oil processing.
Existing Opportunities in Africa
According to the United Nations Trade and Development analysis of 2018, Intra-African trade,
defined as the average of intra-African exports and imports, was around 2% during the period
2015–2017, while comparative figures for intra America, Asia, Europe and Oceania were, 47%,
61%, 67% and 7% respectively. The report further notes that Since 2008, Africa, along with
Asia, is the only region with a rising trend in intra-regional trade. This provides an opportunity
for Kenya to grow and expand into these African markets. Other opportunities include:
 • Africa is the world’s second-most populous continent with a population of approximately
of 1.261 billion as of 2016, which presents a ready domestic market and demand.

• The presences of increased awareness of nutritive values relating to health benefits of

consuming avocado, especially in non-communicable diseases like diabetes and anti-
cancer properties.

• The fruit is a source of raw materials for the processing industry and has triggered
expanded engagement of smallholder and large-scale growers into avocado production.

• There also exists enormous production potential in non-traditional avocado growing

countries such as Ghana, Ethiopia and others placing this fruit as a product that enhances
intra African countries trade depending on availability and seasonality. Africa can
comfortably supply avocados to the global market for nine months during a calendar year.

• Global demand for avocados continues to increase hence the markets for good quality
avocados is readily available.

• There exists untapped potential for avocado production in Africa. Production can now be
upscaled with adoption of modern technologies (high yielding varieties, mechanization
and irrigation), from small holder to large scale production. Commercial avocado farming
provides an avenue to successfully diversification of Africa’s portfolio of horticultural
crops, thereby enhancing the value of the horticultural industry.

• Production of avocado is gaining acceptance in many countries as an alternative for

diversification from traditional crops. For instance, in Kenya coffee farmers continue to
diversify to avocado production.

• Investing as third-party logistics (3PL) company specializing in establishing cold chain

from farm level to the export point Celtic Cooling has already designed mobile cold
rooms/containers that can be used as mobile collection centres and could be loaded on
trucks. These containers use power efficiently.

• Investing in Marketing and Distribution in the source markets (EU, US, China etc.) in
partnerships with Africa exporters.

• Investment in avocado storage technologies and developing inventory credit system (ICS)
that can assist avocado producers and traders. Some international partners would be
interested to partner in this initiative and could make matching grant available for a
competitive and innovative concept

Existing Challenges in Africa

• Limited data on avocado
• Most African countries rely on a fragmented production base with exporters relying on
sourcing from a multitude of smallholder farmers, a system that present a big challenge
to maintaining consistent volumes, quality and traceability requirements.

• The African governments have comparatively limited resources to engage in and work
through the phytosanitary protocol and inspection processes with buying countries
• There exist institutional and logistical barriers often resulting in regulatory overloads,
limiting available resources and hindering linkages of wide avocado stakeholders.
• There is also low accessibility and low usage of high-quality farm inputs such as access
to pesticides, fertilizers and improved avocado propagules due to associated costs. The
marketing infrastructure (cold stores, and refrigerated trucks) has a cost implication and
not readily available to all regions of the countries.
• As the avocado industry blossoms, there is a need for smart policy and capacity building
interventions and regulations to promote competitiveness and diversification of the sub-
sector, to create jobs and generate wealth and economic development.
• There are limited extension support services and providers compared to the large growing
avocado farms.
• In Africa, the resources available for research and development are inadequate. There is
also little linkage between the horticultural research units in the countries and the
stakeholders involved with ensuring the quality and marketing of avocado in the market.

• There is also low adoption of technologies involved in improvement of processing such

as use of solar dryers.

• Short shelf life. The fruit of local cultivar can be stored 5–7 days after ripening before
losing firmness indicating short shelf life. This is also caused by limited storability in
combination with a high avocado supply and a low demand in some areas and seasons
causing traders to experience heavy post-harvest losses.
• There is too limited capital to finance avocado production
 Chapter Two

2.0 Background of Kenya

In Kenya today the smallholder farmers account for over 70 percent of all farming activities
including avocado production11. The avocado smallholder owns less than 2 acres of land with 10-
20 trees per homestead and accumulatively accounting for estimated 136,622 avocado farmers.
Of these 130,424 are smallholders, 6114 are medium holders and 85 are large scale. In 2018
Kenya produced approximately 318,087,000 kgs of avocado fruits valued at Kes 10.839 billion
from a total of 40,757 acres. These acres are proportionately distributed as follows: 32,606
smallholders each planting on average 0.3 of an acre avocado trees, 6,114 medium scale who
plant 1 to 24 acres of avocado, and 2,038 large scale planting 24 and above acres of avocado.
There is also a total of 997 acres with non-bearing tree, which are immature.
The avocado growing is also supported by other parameters including: the availability of suitable
land for avocado growing estimated at 4,940,000 acres; large number of avocado trees under
production estimated at 1,988,064, out of which 1,630,299 trees are grown by smallholder
farmers, 305,681 by medium and 101,894 by large scale12. It’s also estimated that there are 264
registered and certified avocado nurseries, holding an output of 5,272,840 seedlings, with an
average of 19,973 seedlings per nursery. Accumulatively there are approximately 9,655,577
seedings in the country- some of whom are not registered nor certified. Currently there are 33
registered mother blocks from where planting material (scions, rootstock) is sourced. However,
there is no data available on avocado breeding schemes in the country13.
In terms of enhancing production, pruning of avocado trees is largely done manually and skills
varies from farm to farm. Currently there is only one mechanized harvesting machine in the
country and no data available for the number of harvesting machines with poles. However, they
would be a few. In terms of agro-dealers there is a good network - selling farm inputs and can be
sensitized on specific package for fruit trees. Currently, there are a total of 689 public and private
Technical Advisors (TAs) (plant doctors) who can be sensitized to offer tailored extension
packages to avocado farmers.
The motivation for Kenyan farmers to grow avocado incudes: the growing demand and
opportunity window for avocado internationally -such as ever-increasing demand from existing
new emerging markets i.e. EU, Middle East, Russia and China. For instance, China has reduced
the levy on Kenyan avocados from 30% to 7% to help Kenyans export without strain. This
particular agreement with China has sparked interest in fruit farming from various counties –
including non-traditional counties like Uasin Gishu who have plans to establish at least 1000
acres of avocado orchards annually; availability of local market, prioritization of avocado
growing within County Integrated Development Plans – particularly in Baringo, Kiambu, Meru,
Embu, Nyeri, and Murang’a have provided farmers with grafted seedlings, offered them technical
support and helped them to acquire subsidized agro chemicals.
Avocados now considered the green gold is turning around the economies of many smallholder
farmers who produce approximately 115,000 metric tons of avocados annually. The good
government support has also encouraged farmers to grow more avocados because of the
availability of export markets as well as Kenya’s competitive advantage over other exporting

11 Study of the mapping of distributors of fruits and vegetables in Kenya

12 Avocado strategy – Vision Data 2020
13 Avocado strategy – Vision Data 2019
countries – especially Hass variety whose harvesting season extends later in the year, than
Peru’s, granting Kenya a window of opportunity in the export market and extracts more oil per
fresh weight than South Africa’s’. According to Horticultural Crops Directorate (HCD), avocado
has a fair share among leading export crops contributing 7% of total fruits export. And Kenya is
a major player in the avocado export market ranked third globally.
Kenya also has good per-capita consumption of approximately 4.5kg compared to US
consumption of 5.0 kgs and has a large population of over 47 million people as per 2019 National
Census – with 11.7 million households who offer a good domestic market. Also, as per HCD data
of 2019, out of the total avocado produced in Kenya, 80% is consumed in the domestic market
while 20% is exported. Local consumption is predicted to grow by 5% 14 per annum due to
increased awareness of health benefits and improved purchasing power.
The other inspirations for avocado growing includes: providing farmers with extra stream of
income through attractive prices in the export markets, awareness of health benefits; recent
development of farmers switching from coffee and tea for avocados in an effort to increasing crop
diversification; easily intercropped alongside other crops; and avocado trees being easier to
manage compared to other cash crops.
Avocado also contributes to the Gross Domestic Product. Ordinally, Kenya is known to support
its budget through agriculture from exports of tea, coffee and flowers. However, statistics started
changing from 2018, when avocado exports got more attention. The Economic Survey of Kenya
2019 indicated that the value of horticulture exports increased by 33.3 percent translating to
153.7 billion in 2018 on account of improved production and improved international prices.
According to HCD, avocado contributed 7% of the 33.3% towards horticulture's foreign exchange
earnings to Kenya15 and 84% of the total value of fruits exported during that year. The value
increased from KES 5.64 Billion in 2017 to KES 5.97 Billion in 2018 which was a 5.9 percent
increase from 2017. Accumulatively, in 2016 to 2018, avocado fruit contributed Kes 10.839
billion accounting for 84.48 percent of fruits exports by value.
Avocado farming also creates employment opportunities to producers, marketers, processors,
and consumers along the value chain. The orchards create lots of jobs during mulching,
harvesting, packhouse operations, transportation, and marketing. According to a USAID report
on the impacts of tree fruit value chain in Kenya16 , indicated that tree fruit sales were the primary
source of household income of the 53 percent of all the sampled 790 avocado-farming households
at the baseline and 60 percent at the end line. The study further found out that participating in
export markets raises smallholder farmers’ incomes by nearly 39%, due to international markets
demand higher quality avocados which require additional labour. The hired labour costs increase
by about 1,300 Kenya Shillings (US$13) and smallholder farmers’ family labour inputs increase
by about 15 days, if they participate in export markets.
2.1 Current Production
Currently Kenya is the seventh largest producer of avocados in the world. In 2018, a total of
318,087,000 kgs was produced in Kenya, grown commercially in seven different regions of
Central (54.4%), Eastern (9%), Western (3.3%), Rift valley (7.4%), Nyanza (21%), Coast (2.9%)
and Nairobi (2%). The major avocado producing counties are Murang’a (42%), Kiambu (11%),
Kisii (7%), Nyamira (5%) while Bomet, Embu, Meru and Bungoma account for 3% each. Table 5
below shows Kenya’s major avocado growing counties alongside hectares planted, volumes and

14 Avocado Strategy Development Workshop 2020

15 Horticultural Crops Directorate (HCD)
16 USAID Report on Impacts of KBDS and KHDP 2008
values accrued in 2017 through 2018. In total, there are about 30 counties suitable for avocado
growing and most of them have prioritized investment in avocado value chain in their County
Integrated Development Plans 2018-2022.
Table 5: Production and Value of Avocado in selected Counties - 2017 through 2018

County 2017 2018 % 0f

total

Area Volume Value (Ksh) Area Volume Value (Ksh)

(Ha) (Tons) (Ha) (Tons)

Murang'a 4,319 120,645 2,537,654,000 4,321 123,555 2,543,873,660 42.6

Kiambu 1,505 29,004 570,675,000 1,819 37,964 682,031,000 11.4

Kisii 1,529 31,383 497,573,500 1,532 28,830 429,530,000 7.2

Nyamira 1,474 28,435 298,640,199 1,482 29,280 309,280,000 5.2

Bomet 379 6,786 118,710,000 474 10,590 217,800,000 3.6

Embu 692 13,180 195,000,000 709 14,543 216,525,000 3.6

Meru 743 15,253 225,268,512 755 8,553 209,966,667 3.5

Bungoma 268 3,802 105,552,100 299 6,028 201,320,000 3.4

Kirinyaga 433 5,282 120,532,000 367 5,892 147,040,000 2.5

Nyeri 176 2,268 31,222,748 584 5,784 112,702,064 1.9

Makueni 332 3,073 100,087,500 335 3,078 100,187,500 1.7

Taita 177 6,888 62,071,660 180 9,183 85,129,940 1.4

Taveta

Vihiga 292 2,105 45,660,000 389 4,554 83,705,000 1.4

E 321 3,200 74,761,658 371 3,493 80,950,035 1.4
Marakwet

Homabay 263 2,176 68,770,000 299 2,061 71,070,000 1.2

Migori 457 7,477 160,987,500 315 3,284 67,684,200 1.1

Migori 312 2,984 59,684,200 315 3,284 67,684,200 1.1
Nandi 117 1,652 49,941,500 127 2,073 56,581,000 0.9

Baringo 180 2,438 49,440,000 202 2,760 56,000,000 0.9

Kericho 88 1,456 43,980,000 93 1,554 45,885,000 0.8

Nakuru 116 1,464 36,369,000 371 1,664 42,140,000 0.7

Narok 135 1,071 38,260,000 155 1,519 34,130,009 0.6

Machakos 526 3,467 104,964,000 298 2,280 33,925,000 0.6

 County 2017 2018 % 0f
total

Area Volume Value (Ksh) Area Volume Value (Ksh)

(Ha) (Tons) (Ha) (Tons)

Others 521 1,632 42,195,603 713 6,280 76,964,153 1.3

Total 15,353 297,122 5,638,000,680 16,501 318,087 5,972,104,428 100.0

Source: Horticultural Crops Directorate report 2018

Currently the most preferred varieties for export is Hass variety at 10% and Furte at 20%. Other
commercial varieties include Keitt, Reed, Booth 8, Simmonds, Pinkerton, Nabal, Puebla,
Tonnage, Ettinger, Hayes, G6 and G7. Varieties currently used as rootstocks include Puebla,
Fuerte, Duke, G6, and G7.
However, Kenya has not achieved its optimal production in avocado due to the following issues
– which this strategy prioritizes to address in order to achieve the desired volumes by 2027.
2.2 Issues affecting Production of Avocado
Uneconomical land sizes: Majority of the avocado production in Kenya is through
smallholder farmers. These farmers own less than 2 acres of land and plant 10-20 avocado trees
on 0.3 of an acre, which is uneconomical. For farmers to operate sustainably and make profit,
they need a minimum of 81 avocado trees planted on one-acre and each tree producing at least
1000 fruits per year per season at year 6. Going with the current smallholder acreage, Kenya
therefore, needs a total of 62,725 of .25 acres planted with good variety avocado to engage in
sustainable and profitable businesses.
Inadequate access to quality input and services: First, currently farmers source for inputs
individually from different retails outlets and sometimes have to travel long distances. Secondly,
there are a few service providers employed by government to support farmers on a number of
areas, such as how to plant a health orchard, do pest and disease control measures, advise on
harvesting, sorting, and transportation among others. Due to scarcities farmers are forced to
undertake these services on their own or rely on poorly equipped and farm-trained workers. This
contributes to increased cost of production per unit area to individual farmers and increases
post-harvest losses, hence reduced profitability.
Wrong Choose of Avocado Varieties: First, this is informed largely by availability of
seedlings irrespective of the variety and secondly, farmers have inadequate ability to identify
varieties at seedling level – leading to wrong choose of variety.
Lack of Breeding Programmes: There exists limitations of known avocado breeding
programs in Kenya, and the little researches done - there are gaps in dissemination of that
knowledge to benefit the farmers.
Few Quality Mother Blocks: In Kenya, most nursery operators source propagation materials
from uncertified mother blocks, and only a small proportion get materials from credible
institutions such as Kenya prisons, private nurseries, KALRO, and universities.
Low number of registered Nurseries and Certified Seedlings: Although there are 264
registered nurseries, over 80% of avocado farmers source seedling requirements from
unregistered nursery operators. The spread of these nurseries is obscure as some regions like
western and rift valley largely depend on supply from central and eastern Kenya nurseries. Also,
the capacities of some nurseries to provide quality seedling is low when compared to the demand
to supply quality planting materials.
Unplanned Seedling Establishment: Currently there is inadequate data to validate
quantities of planted seedlings. This has facilitated local varieties to dominate thus affecting
overall production. Presently, improved varieties suitable for export comprise approximately
20% of the total production17.
Immature Trees not- true-to-type: At present farmers are experiencing challenges of not
always able to procure “true-to-type” cultivars, contributing to the proliferation of so-called local
varieties. Most farmers have low capacity to identify and differentiate the best variety for their
climatic conditions, while responding to government call and desire to make profits. Currently
the most preferred varieties for export are Hass and Furte. Right now, there is proliferation of
many uncertified nurseries selling uncertified seedlings in many parts of the country.
Lack of Accurate Avocado Data: Currently there is limited validated holistic avocado data,
and the available information is mainly from secondary sources and based on estimates.
Harvesting of premature fruits: The high global demand which coincides with Kenyan
avocado off -season (Nov-Feb) creates opportunities for scrupulous growers, suppliers and
exporters to trade in immature fruits. This negatively impacts on quality and reputation of
Kenyan avocado in the world market.
Low number of harvested fruits per mature tree: Presently, a tree of 3-5-year-old yields
an average of 300-400 kgs per hectare, while a tree older than five years yields 800-1000 kgs
fruits per hectare18.
Weak Farm Linkages: There exists weak farm linkages between actors (smallholders and
exporters) resulting in loss of market share.
Majority of Technical Advisors have limited skills: Avocado growing requires specialized
extension approach due to its unique needs, but the current graduates have more theoretical
knowledge with minimal exposure to practical skills and hence unable to adequately support the
farmer. As a result of inadequate extension service skills, avocado farmers lack the requisite
knowledge and skills on production, harvesting, and post- harvest techniques.
The few extension providers also lack harmonized operational programmes leading to poor
service delivery and non-standardization of extension messages thus affecting productivity,
processing and marketing of avocado and its products. However, the extension agencies such as
Horticultural Crop Directorate and others offers limited specialized extension services for
domestic and export crops but only in specific high concentration areas.
Lack of horticultural Centre of Excellence: The country has inadequate centres of
excellence that provide avocado tailored skills and value addition. In addition, the collaboration
between national and county levels of government to support the farmers is disjointed. It's also
noted that the TVET institutions do not offer skills for the avocado sub-sector.
Inadequate access to practical learning sites: Currently, there are inadequate practical
learning sites where avocado farmers can complement theory lessons they learn in seminars and
workshops.

17 HCD 2015 report

18 KALRO 2018 report
Inadequate skills of Agro-dealer attendants: Kenya has presently a good network of agro-
dealers in the entire country. However, the shop attendants have inadequate tailor-made
technical knowledge to provide quality support services to avocado farmers.
Few Harvesting Poles: The avocado growers require harvesting poles to minimize damage
while harvesting fruits. The number of the available poles has been difficult to establish.
Few cold storages: There are approximately 47 bulk coolers and 257 farm coolers whose
capacity is inadequate for current production levels. Reduction of field heat is critical to good
storage and shelf life of avocado fruits.
Presence of pests and diseases: There exists known pests and diseases that lower the quality
of avocado fruit, and if uncontrolled, render the fruits totally unmarketable. These include,
phytophthora, anthracnose, and fruit fly. Additionally, there is inadequate knowledge on
responsible use of pesticides leading to market produce with high residues, developing resistance
by pathogens and environmental contamination. Further, there is inadequate surveillance and
monitoring systems in avocado orchards.
Poor agronomic practices: Farmers in Kenya today are experiencing poor orchard
management, premature harvesting tendencies, prevalence of pests and diseases and poor post-
harvest handling practices. This is partly attributed to the fact that majority of the growers do
not consider avocado fruit trees as a main farming activity hence the fruits are not supplied with
nutrients (fertilizer applications, manure and/or pesticides as required); hence exposed to
inadequate nutrition resulting into stunted and undersize fruits. There is also minimal use of
irrigation and conservation agriculture technology for avocado production.
Poor Traceability system: In Kenya today, there is poor implementation of traceability
system especially for the domestic market. Marketing agents pick up fruits from various farmers
and mix them up in one pick-up or truck. Fruits from individual farmers are neither sorted nor
packaged and this makes it very difficult to trace fruit origin.
Opportunities within Production

• Conducive government policy, strong donor support and private-sector leadership has
spiked the growth of this industry.
• The government has also identified avocado as one of the key enterprises that can drive
growth in the economy. Towards this, the government has provided a total of 1,468,442
assorted subsidized fruit trees seedlings to smallholder farmers in the last two years.
Because of this provision there has been a sharp increase in the area under avocado
production

• There is also expansion of avocado production to non-traditional growing regions such

as the larger rift valley and western
Challenges within Production

• There are challenges of soil borne pathogens such Phytopthera root rot which can put
even mature orchards out of production
• Sub-division of family land to uneconomical units
• Poor agronomic practices by most smallholder farmers with minimal soil and water
analyzes
• The youth don’t view farming as a sustainable business to engage in and hence avocado
orchards are being taken care of by ageing farmers
2.3 Marketing Pillar
2.3.1 Exports in Africa

The Kenyan avocado industry is export-orientated and among the fasted-growing export with
221.1% behind Colombia and Morocco in the world. In 2018, total validated fresh and frozen
avocado export was valued at $ 119 million with untapped potential of about $ 113
million19. Between 2017 and 2018, Kenya’s exports increased by 3020 with an average growth
pegged at 29% per year between 2014 and 2018. Again, in that year, the exports of fresh and
frozen avocados were absorbed by substantially 3 countries of Netherlands (37.2%), France
(20.7%), and Russia (10.9%). In that same year, Kenya’s exports to the African region was
estimated at $ 0.3 million and accounted for 15% of the region’s imports. As per the Vision Data,
of 2018, the actual marketed avocado fruits in Kenya was 287, 868,735 kgs. Out of this,
64,477,082kgs was exported to international markets, 15,904350kgs was consumed on-farm
while 223,391,653kgs was sold through informal traders. In the same period, there were 156,
registered exporter, although only 94 were active, approximately 120 open air market, 60
supermarkets and numerous green groceries where avocados were traded across the country.
There were also an estimated 38 marketing agents dealing with avocados in Kenya21. This
progressive improvement in avocado export and trade between 2001 through 2017 in shown in
Fig 5 here below.
Figure 5: Kenya’s Avocado Exports 2001-2017

In addition, Kenya’s growth in export value, market share and estimated untapped potential is
shown in table 6 here below.

Table 6: Countries where Kenya exports Fresh and Dried Avocados (2014-2018)

19 Kenya Export Council 2019

20 Kenya Export Council 2019
21 Avocado strategy – Vision Data 2019
 Growth in Estimation of
Value exported Share in
Exported value untapped
SN Importers in 2018 (USD Kenya’s
between 2014- potential trade,
thousands) export (%)
18 (%, p, a) USD thousands

1 Netherlands 44,247 37.2 33 61,996

2 United Kingdom 2,191 1.8 22 11,629

3 Norway 1,255 1.1 32 7,982

4 Switzerland 564 0.5 19 5,785

5 Germany 6,973 5.9 28 3,960

6 USA - - - 3,792

7 Japan - - - 3,179

8 Sweden 1 - - 2,860

9 Finland 639 0.5 51 2,235

10 Spain 10,338 8.7 46 1,715

11 Canada - - - 996

12 Australia - - - 911

13 China - - - 694

14 Poland 39 - - 670

15 Morocco 929 0.8 41 474

16 Ireland 1,008 0.8 102 419

17 Oman - - - 413

18 Korea Republic - - - 410

19 Denmark 3 - - 391

20 Italy 9 - - 363

22 Thailand - - - 325

23 South Africa - - - 262

24 Latvia - - - 243

25 Czech Republic - - - 136

Total 119,074 100 29 113,241

2.3.2 Import in Africa

Kenya is not a major avocado import destination. In 2018, the country imported 96.6% and 3.4%
of her national avocado deficient from Tanzania and Egypt respectively either as fresh or frozen,
as explained in table 7 below. Other imports were from Uganda.

Table 7: Kenya's top import trade partners ‘1000’ tons

% share of World’s
Exporters 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
in 2018
Tanzania 10 5 24 600 57 96.6
Egypt 0 4 5 0 2 3.4
UAE 0 0 1 0 0 0

Total 10 9 30 600 59 100

Source: International Trade Centre Database 2019, Compiled by EPC

Out of the total world imports in 2018 valued at $ 6.13 billion, Kenya only managed to satisfy
1.9% of world demand.
For Kenya to support her aspirations of the fasted-growing exporter and marketer both locally
and internationally - the below issues concerning marketing needs to be addressed and mitigated
to facilitate access to new bigger emerging markets.
2.3.3 Issues affecting Marketing of Avocados
Poor distribution of avocado fruits in the domestic market: Although there are four
distinct marketing channels for avocado (selling directly to an importer, combining with others,
through membership to a private or cooperative export organization and sell from farm gates),
there still exists a huge inconsistencies in terms of avocado distribution due to poor
infrastructures networks, inadequate flow of market information and low supply of avocados in
most parts of Kenya.
Small number of formal markets: Currently there exists inadequate marketing hubs - which
can serve as centralized one-stop for access to sales and services that farmers may require.
Available data shows there are only four marketing hubs in the country against 47 countries
which offer good domestic market.
Low per capita consumption: With the current population of over 47 million people - the
per capita consumption of 4.5kgs per person per season is low – given that 80% of the Kenyan
production is consumed locally. Kenya should ordinary experience a higher local demand for
avocado.
Low volume of avocado fruit exported: In 2018 Kenya export of 64,477,082kgs against
world import of 5.9 billion tons, with 3.3% share of the global market share due to some of these
marketing issues.
Poor presentation and packaging of avocado fruits: Proper presentation and packaging
improve the attractiveness of the produce. Grading and fruit storage facilities are lacking in most
production areas, with only a small percentage of farmers able to access a grading and /or pack
house facility. Kenya loses a lot of revenue due to poor packaging and inappropriate
transportation that leads to loss of fruit quality.
Low number of exporters: Currently only 94 out of 156 registered exporters are actively
which impacts negatively and reduces Kenya’s competitiveness in the international market
High cost of freight: Kenya has the advantage of both ocean and air, but there still exists a
high cost of these services beside charges for cold storage and inspections.
Limited market information: Presently there exists an ally of challenges in accessing real
time market information, partly due to over reliance on external market outlets mainly EU. This
make Kenya export very vulnerable to changes in the demand for avocado products and
unexpected non-trade barriers by foreign markets. In addition, this over-dependence on
traditional markets (EU) is due to limited investment for market research and development.
Low adherence to quality standards and food safety: The avocado industry in Kenya
largely faces two most critical challenges of how to ensure quality and traceability. There is need
for growers and exporters to ensure that avocado production methods meet the required
standards of the marketing industry (from farm to fork). The quality requirements include
ripeness, absence of disease and damage and residues below permitted levels. The rejection of
fruits due to lack of conformity to prescribed quality standards is more pronounced in the
European market than in the Middle East. More often, exporters, middlemen and farmers flaunt
adherence to market standards resulting in interceptions in the international market which
affects Kenya’s reputation.
Inadequate financing of avocado enterprises: Most smallholder farmers have restricted
access to formal loans due to stringent bank requirements.
Business plans: Currently many avocado growers operate in un-entrepreneurial ways and lack
business plans which would prove their financial needs and expected income.
Seasonality and Price Fluactions: The Kenya avocado seasonality impacts supply and
demand to the market. The fuerte variety matures in February and the Hass variety matures in
mid-March, and the harvesting season runs upto October. However, during the off-season the
marketers rely on Jumbo variety which is available throughout the year and the deficit is
supplemented with imports from neighbouring countries such as Tanzania and Rwanda. This
seasonality further pushes farmers and exporters to harvest premature fruits which negatively
impact on quality and reputation of Kenyan avocado in the international market. These
Fluactions in supply and demand affects both domestic and international market prices.
Opportunities within Marketing Pillar

• In 2019 the country ventured into new market outlets to broaden its exported avocado
products such as frozen avocados which are exported to China.
• The Kenyan population of over 47 million presents a huge domestic market for fresh and
processed avocado products.
• The presence of improved infrastructure such as the rural road network, Standard Gauge
Railway, Mombasa port and JKIA gives Kenya an advantage as a marketing point.
• Exploit exporting Kenyan avocado to other African countries, which import from outside
the continent. For instance, Morocco imports from the Netherlands, France and Peru;
South Africa imports from Spain and Israel; Egypt imports from Lebanon, Netherlands,
USA and Thailand and Nigeria also imports from the Netherlands
• Target COMESA – made up of 20 countries with a combined population of 470 million
people. Kenya has an opportunity to export avocado products that qualify under the
COMESA Rules of Origin on preferential tariff basis

• Exploit all countries that Kenya has concluded bilateral trade agreements with,
(numbering over 30 countries) excluding those that fall under the above multilateral
trade arrangements,
 • Exploit countries in which Kenya has physical presence through her established foreign
service diplomatic missions and consular offices offer additional opportunities to grow
her export trade.
Challenges within Marketing Pillar

• There is low investment in market and information management systems

• Low promotional campaigns both locally and internationally –particularly in setting up
marketing agents in the international markets
• Minimal branding of Kenyan avocado in the international market – which gives room for
importers to re-brand Kenyan produce and sale – denying Kenya the much-needed
foreign revenue.
• The existence of weak contract between smallholder farmers and exporters – which at
times exploits the farmer.
2.4 Quality Pillar
With avocado emerging as one of the non-traditional exportable horticultural crops in the recent
past, there is increased sharp focus to comply with necessary food safety requirements and
guidelines that are either public or private. This calls for adherence to comprehensive practices
along the value chain to ensure quality of the produce. The current poor practices often result to
loss of quality and ultimate leads to low uncompetitive prices – both locally and internationally.
Here below are some of the critical quality issues which needs to be addressed to improve Kenyan
produce.
2.4.1 Issues affecting Quality of Avocados
• Poor post-harvest handling: Poor post-harvest handling leads to external and
internal damage to the fruit resulting in loss of aesthetic and nutritional value. Loss of
quality starts from poor harvesting methods which lead to bruises on the fruits and
contamination with soil. Majority of avocado transporters use open pick up and trucks
thus exposing the fruits to weather elements such as wind, sun, rain and pollution from
car fumes and smoke.
• These poor practices from harvesting to handling results to loss of revenues to the farmers
and the country. The situation is aggravated due to minimal trainings for value chain
actors on quality management.

• Harvesting of immature fruits: Fruits picked too early or too late are more
susceptible to physiological disorders and have shorter shelf-life. Immature fruits do not
ripen, prompting international buyers to lower confidence with Kenyan produce resulting
in low competitiveness.

• Poor crop husbandry: Avocado trees are perennial and require nutritional
supplementation, soil and water analysis, and regular pruning. Scarcity of farm-yard
manure and fertilizers, high cost of soil and water analysis, and tallness of the trees limit
production per tree.

• Poor quality inputs: Accessibility of quality inputs such as fertilizers, seedling and
necessary machinery are limited largely due to high pricing and availability. Poor input
quality compromises the avocado agri-business in many aspects such as size, shelf-life,
ripening period and sustained rigor during transportation.

• Inadequate cold chain infrastructure: Although cold storage is essential in

ensuring fruit safety and quality, most farmers and exporters do not access cold chain
 infrastructure from the farm gate to pack house. Presently bulk third-party logistics (3PL)
services are offered by mutli-national firms and unavailable to smallholder farmers.
• At the farm level, precooling of the fruits before transportation is not practiced, and
minimal sorting and/or grading is done especially by the smallholder farmers. Currently,
there is no data on the number of farm produce handling facilities and pest-free areas
that can be the source of high-quality fruits. In addition, the country has only 2 maturity
testing kits – which are critical to guide farmers in ensuring they harvest at the correct
maturity index.

• Pest and diseases: Most smallholder farmers apply limited pest control measures
despite the prevalence of high levels of fungal diseases and pests. In addition, there is
general inappropriate and low application of pesticides to avocado trees.
Existing opportunities within the Quality Pillar

• To sensitize the jua kali sector to fabricate harvesting poles which can be distributed
through the agro-input shops and aggregation centers
• There is a thriving private sector which can be sensitized to invest in cold chain
infrastructure.
• Sensitization to growers and marketing agents on the need to practices sound harvesting
techniques, undertake sorting, grading and packaging coupled with appropriate
transportation

2.5 Value Addition and Processing Pillar

Prior to 2004-2005, most avocado produced in Kenya was sold through local markets primarily
by wholesalers and retail fresh fruit sales for domestic consumption. Since then, three medium
scale avocado oil industries, and four cottage industries are now operational and provide a
growing demand for the Grade 2 avocados—which are not suitable for export or sale in the
domestic fresh market. Currently two out of the three processors are active consuming
approximately 21,577 kilograms of avocado per day, which they process into crude oil sold in
Europe and South Africa for further refining. They too process pure virgin oil, for export, and
cosmetics for local and regional markets.
Due to limited processing capabilities and capacities, the country has foregone multiple benefits
and revenue through sale of fresh avocado instead of value-added avocado products. To mitigate
against these situations there is need to address the issues listed here below limiting full
exploitation of the value addition and processing of avocados into various products and
quantities.
2.5.1 Issues Affecting Value Addition and Processing of Avocado

• Inadequate volumes for processing: Although there has been an upsurge of farmers
planting avocado within the last 5 years, the volumes are still low. In addition, there is
competition between exporting the fresh fruits versus processing for oil extraction.

• Low number of processors and capacity utilization: Although there are 6

registered processors with a current daily demand of 21,575 kgs, this is still way below
their optimum potential and the capacity of cottage industries is yet to be established.

• Low number of processed avocado products: Despite the existing potential of

processing avocado into multiple products including cosmetics, healthcare and lubricant
 or fuel oil, most avocado in Kenya is consumed fresh. The processing sub-sector is
operating below capacity with a narrow range of products in food security such as
yoghurts, smoothies, guacamole and juices, as well as cosmetics.

• Poor branding: Currently, there is a lack of an established Kenyan exclusive avocado

brand. This state has limited international market access due to inadequate investment
in branding and promotional campaigns. Some importing countries rebrand Kenyan
avocado as their own, denying Kenya the anticipated revenues.
Opportunities in Value Addition and Processing

• There is opportunity for SMEs to invest into value addition and processing of avocado
and take advantage of the current government support to the manufacturing pillar in the
Big 4 transformative Agenda
• There is need for the country to invest in promotional and branding of the Kenya avocado
as a preferred choice in the international market.
• There is opportunity for investors to diversify processed products from the from the
current narrow range of oils, cosmetics and cuisines.
2.6 Profitability Pillar
In Kenya the situational analysis and profit and loss margins (see table 8) reveals that most
farmers particularly smallholder are making losses. This is partly attributed by – not many of
them fully embrace avocado farming as a business. This partial engagement as a hobby greatly
effects their optimal returns from avocado farming. Again, many of them are driven by emerging
fast benefits and/or as an occupation. To transform this mindset and invest in avocado as a
commercial, sustainable and profitable enterprises, the below issues need to be addressed.
Table 8: Profit and Loss Model Margin Analysis

Input/output Units Number of Fruits Total Price per Total

Trees per Tree number unit revenue
of fruits

Number of Avocado Fruit Number 15 300 4500 5 22,500

1: Cost of intermediate inputs

Land hiring 0.125 10000 1250

Soil Analysis 1 2000 2000

Water analysis 1 600 600

Land preparation 0.125 2500 312.5

Herbicide 0.125 1000 125

Herbicide application
1 1 300 300
(man days)

Making holes (PW) 1 15 50 750

Manure (KG) 20 15 1.5 450

manure transport 1 500 500

Fertilizer(kg)
 TSP 0.15 40 6

CAN 0.15 60 9

Foliar 0.12 15 1000 1800

Labour 1 425 425

Seedlings 1 15 150 2250

Transport seedlings 1 15 10 150

Fungicide 0.12 15 0 2000 3600

Planting (pw) 1 15 5 75

Staking (MD) 1 425 425

Weed control 1 425 425

Irrigation(litres) 20 15 210 0.01 630

Labour (MD) 1 425 425

Pegging 1 2 425 850

FCM traps 0.125 4 300 150

Fruit fly traps 0.125 4 300 150

Pesticide 0.12 15 0 0 1500 2700

Maturity test 1 300 300

Security 2 12750 25500

Harvesting 1 4500 0.1 450

Tissue testing 1 14000 14,000

Pruning-once 1 425 425

Sorting 1 1.125 500 563

Transport 1 1.125 500 6,600

Total Cost 68,195

Profit -45,695

Monthly profit/loss 3,807.92

To change the narrative the avocado enterprises into profitable business, the country needs to
address issues listed here below.
2.6.1 Issues Affecting Profitability

Unstructured avocado pricing: Kenyan avocado pricing fluctuates significantly due to

quantity, variety, fruit size, fruit quality and type of buyer. Although in some situations marketing
agents exploit smallholder farmers by buying in bulk at farm gate and offer immediate cash but
at very low prices. They sell the produce to the exporters who pay after weeks or months but at
competitive prices.
Lack of price risk mitigation: There is generally low-price risk mitigation. Some of the
variables that affect price risks include climate change; natural disaster like floods and mudslide;
quality of seedling and poor-quality inputs and seasonality among others. Non cushioning of
farmers against these price risks greatly affect their businesses.
Over reliance on limited public advisory service providers: Avocado farmers do not
access adequate extension services from the government due to: ageing and reduction of staff
numbers; inadequate funding; poorly packaged information; low participation in technology
development; low transfer and poor adoption of modern researched technologies; and lack the
capacity by the smallholders to employ a trained personnel to manage farm operations for
maximum production and profitability.
Low business volumes: In 2018, Kenya exported 64,477,082 kgs of avocados against 5.6
billion tons of world market demand. This low business volume is largely due to low production
volumes, unstructured domestic distribution channels, limited marketing hubs and high post-
harvest losses.
Competition: Currently the Kenyan avocado faces competition from South American
producers, such as Peru, Chile and Colombia. Exporters in the competing countries have also
learned the importance of managing and controlling the supply chain by opening offices in
Europe or forming joint venture with Dutch exporters. Staff at these offices not only monitor all
shipments, but also form close relationships with importers, supermarkets and identify and form
relationships, with media outlets such as health magazines, celebrity chefs, women’s magazines,
and national press for publicity and promotional campaigns. Kenya is yet to extensively engage
in such high-level marketing.
Infrastructure Constraints: An array of infrastructural constraints hinders the farmer from
making profits. They include: underdeveloped rural roads and other key physical infrastructure
leading to high costs of transporting avocados to the markets and farm inputs - reducing the
competitiveness of the Kenyan avocado; supply of electricity in the rural fluctuates reducing
investment opportunities such as irrigation and agro-processing; poor avocado marketing
information systems and structures that inform the value chain actors on real-time and facilitates
quick movements of avocados given their fragile and perishable nature; and avocado farmers are
subjected to multiple taxes at both county and national - in the form of cess without
corresponding provision of requisite services and weak contractual agreements between
smallholders and national exporters impacts on the smallholder negatively. All these have
contributed to reduction in the net farm incomes and created distortions in marketing structures
without necessarily improving the revenues for both local authorities and quality control
systems.
Existing Opportunities in Profitability
Formation of farmer clusters/cooperatives will drive realization of many benefits of avocado
farmers such as the following:

• Give farmers a bargaining voice for better pricing

• Procure bulk farm inputs
• Ease access to market information
• It will enable hiring of technical advisers/field scout
• It will enable Installation packhouses/handling facilities/cold facilities
• It enables harmonized pest and disease control operations
• It will enable bulking of the avocado produce
• It will facilitate internal mechanisms of self-regulation among the farmers
 2.7 Situation Analysis
2.7.1 Value Chain Analysis
Figure 6: Relationships among key stakeholders
value chain actors

Research
County
Institutions
Policy Makers Regulator Private Governm
MoALFC KEPHIS Sector KALRO ents
NGOS,
Exporter
etc.

Policy actions Implementation

Projects

Value chain actors

Farmers Input suppliers Extension Exporters and Wholesalers Retailers Consumers

& Nursery Services Processors
Operators
 2.7.2 Stakeholder Analysis
The analysis of stakeholder along the value chain helps to identify key actors in order to catalyze
synergy and identify weak points which can be supported to stimulate a commercial and
sustainable avocado enterprise. Currently the avocado value chain actors operate in disjointed
manner, i.e. farmers operate individually and marketing agents’ source for produce individually
leading to exploitation of farmers. Some of the key actors in the avocado value chain include:
farmers, extension service providers, input suppliers, transporters, marketing agents and
exporters whose roles and functions are detailed in the table 9 below.
Table 9: Value Chain Actors

Actor Roles Key characteristics, activities, functions

Farmers Producers and • Category of farmers vary from small scale to large
consumers scale with production area ranging from 0.3 to over
75 ha
• Farm operations range from simple to Mechanized
operations depending on the ability of farmers, and
the level of training in GAPs
• Some of the key farm operations include fertilizer
pesticide applications, pruning, weeding, irrigation,
monitoring for pests and diseases, and post-harvest
handling
• Depending on the scale of production, the enterprise
can be capital intensive or low investment ultimately
affecting the yield returns
• The farmers produce targeting domestic and
international markets e.g. Kakuzi, Vegpro, Mt. Elgon
Orchards target export markets
• Some of the concerns include poor agronomic
practices, inappropriate transportation, handling
ultimately leading to high post-harvest losses. Others
include overreliance on rainfed production,
sometimes compromising yields due to recurrent
drought.

Agricultural They do • The major agricultural inputs include fertilizers,

input importation, pesticides, spraying and punning equipment which
Suppliers distribution and range from hand secateurs to motorized sprayers,
sale of Personal Protective Gear, pruning tools, and
agricultural watering kits
inputs. • The input actors comprise of large and independent
or small dealers that distribute agro-chemicals and
diverse farming equipment with distribution
networks based at regional, wards and village outlets.
• Example of input supplier include: Amiran Kenya,
Elgon Kenya and Kenya Seed Company are both
manufacturers and importers of fertilizers and agro-
chemicals
• Syngenta and Kenya Seed Company train farmers
and agro-dealers on new technologies and agronomic
practice
• However, some of the concerns on farm inputs
include poor quality of Knapsack sprayers, low
availability of fertilizers for avocado (stockiest do not
 understand the special requirement for fruit trees)
and high cost of farm inputs coupled with high cost
of procurement of commercial loans.

Nurseries Supply quality • These comprises a range of large to small scale, and
Operators avocado franchised nurseries that produce avocado seedlings.
seedlings They differ by size, ownership structure and target
clients.
• In some instances, large commercial farms have own
nurseries and produce (grafted) avocado seedlings
on a large scale. For example, Oxfarm Organics,
Soloplant Ltd and Isinya Roses.
• In addition, the government promotes and facilitates
sourcing of seedlings to farmers through program-
based initiatives. Further, government agencies such
as Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research
Organization (KALRO), KEPHIS and universities
undertake multiplication of seedlings and regulatory
services.
• Some of the concerns in seedling supply includes,
poor distribution networks for small nurseries,
limited supply of certified seedlings, engagement in
seedling production by operators who are not trained
nor certified.

Contract Producer and • These can be single large-scale farmers or

farmers consumer smallholder farmers organized into cooperatives
/clusters/groups
• They produce for guaranteed markets and have
signed contracts with exporters or marketing agents.
• They practice GAPS and have access to extension
services, focus on commercialization through
aggregation and bulking of avocado
• Some of the concerns are violation of contracts on
issues based on delayed payment, produce poaching,
non-payment for delivered produce
Marketing Buying and • These can be single entrepreneurs or companies,
agents aggregation of trading in small to large scale volumes
produce • They offer logistical support like transport,
aggregation and market requirement
• They also link producers to buyers on commission
• Some of the concerns include price exploitation of
farmers
Horticulture Producer/ • These are the major registered associations in fruit
sub-sector marketing industry – such as FPEAK, FPC-Kenya, Avocado
Associations lobby groups Society of Kenya (ASK), Kenya Avocado Exporters
Association (KAEA)
• Their role includes lobbying and advocacy,
promotion and marketing of products targeting the
international market, and organize for training for
members on best practices
Processors Aggregators/ • These are entrepreneurs with varying capacities of
processors handling large volume of produce
• They require large quantities hence need reliable and
consistent supply
• The provide an uptake of fruits which do not meet the
export requirements (grade 2 avocados)
• They process oil (crude, and refined)
• The challenges experienced includes high cost of
operation, government taxes and licenses, high cost
of raw materials
Informal Improve • These are marketing channels distributing fruits
Markets distribution nearer to the consumers
• They include, small, open air market, along roadside,
small shopping centres etc.
• They are largely not regulated but they have a
significant market share
• Some of the concerns is their difficult to comply
with market requirements and standards as they are
not mainstreamed
Formal • These are organized business entities like Groceries,
Markets retailers, supermarkets situated in strategic points
• They target middle to high income population
• They handle sizable quantities with a pricing system
• They observe some standards in their operations
• Some engage in value addition practices
Exporters Exporters • These are organized and registered traders who buy
and export avocado produce
• They offer logistical support along the value chain
like sorting, grading pre-cooling at packhouses,
custom clearance, and freight bookings
• They Sell fresh or processed avocados products in the
international markets
• They also deal with large volumes of produce
• They source, provide and disseminate market
information and foster market linkages

Consumer Consumer • This is the population that feed on avocados, sourced

from own farm, informal and formal markets.
• They use avocado as either fresh or processed in
forms of food, cosmetic or pharmaceutical products.
• In the cases of glut, the surplus is used as animal feed

Government Institutions

Name of Role in the avocado value chain

stakeholder
Ministry of • To formulate, implement and monitor agricultural legislation,
Agriculture regulations and policies
livestock, Fisheries • Support agricultural research and promote technological
and Cooperatives delivery
(MOALFC) • Facilitate and represent agricultural state corporations in the
government
• Offer support to county governments in matters of agriculture
Name of Role in the avocado value chain
stakeholder
Agriculture and • To administer the Crops Act in accordance with the provisions
Food Authority of these Acts
(AFA) - • To regulate, promote and develop the horticulture subsector
Horticultural Crops through review of rules and regulations
Directorate (HCD) • promote best practices in the production, processing,
marketing, grading, storage, collection, transportation and
warehousing of agricultural products;
• Facilitate marketing of horticultural crops through monitoring
and dissemination of market information.
• To collect, collate, analyze and disseminate horticulture data
• Maintain a database for horticulture for reference and advisory
on policy and investment
• Establish linkages with public and private research institutions
to enhance the development of horticultural industry and
dissemination of new technologies
• Promote and advise on strategies for value addition prior to
export of crops from Kenya.
• To advise the national government and the county
governments on agriculture levies for purposes of planning,
enhancing harmony and equity in the sector
Kenya Agricultural • To undertake research in all aspects of production,
and Livestock management, postharvest and value addition of horticultural
Research crops. The outputs from research activities implemented are to
Organization support the national horticultural industry
(KALRO) • Advise on, and develop appropriate systems to promote
balanced, diversified and sustained horticultural development
and to optimize horticultural production through adaptive and
investigative research
• To facilitate the use of improved production technology and
establish adequate feedback systems from horticultural
producers in order to achieve and maintain national self-
sufficiency and export capacities in horticultural products
Kenya Plant Health KEPHIS is a regulatory agency with responsibility to:
Inspectorate • Assures the quality of agricultural inputs and produce to
Services (KEPHIS) prevent adverse impact on the economy, the environment and
human health.
• Provides services linked to Phyto-sanitary services (including
the issuance of certificates), seed certification schemes,
undertaking analytical laboratory tests and import-export
license issuances related to SPS measures
• Informs exporters of problems encountered in third markets
(such as interceptions). Training of exporters and producers is
provided by KEPHIS for Maximum Residue Level (MRLs)
• Training on export produce standards and requirements, as
well as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) requirements
Kenya Export • To Promote and brand Kenya’s export products
Promotion and • Focuses on promotional activities, including participation in
Branding Agency international expositions and trade fairs
(KEPROBA-
BrandKE)
 Name of Role in the avocado value chain
stakeholder
Jomo Kenyatta • This is a training and research institution
University • They produce skilled professionals and research technologies
Agriculture • They engage in multiplication and sell of clean planting
Technology materials
• They offer short-term and refresher trainings
• They design and development farm equipment such as oil
extractors, driers, etc. which mechanize farm operations.
County governments • Through its agriculture committee it handles, all matters
- relating to sustainable agricultural practices; they prioritize
Council of enterprises for investments at county levels to enhance poverty
Governors (COG) eradication, uptake of high-quality inputs; increase value
addition, improve food security improve productivity and
technological advancements in agriculture.

2.7.3 Analysis: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT)

This is the summary assessment of the sector’s strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats
as indicated in the table below. Some of the key strengths are derived from the sector’s long-
standing culture of horticultural produce export and favorable all-year round climatic conditions.
The weak points relate to low volumes and high post-harvest losses. The available opportunities
include the expanding markets and government support. The key threats emanate from
increased competition from other countries, constraints related to implementation of
international market standards, and the risk of invasive trans-boundary pests and diseases.
Strengths Weaknesses

Established Markets in the European Union Inadequate distribution channels for avocado
(EU), United States and the Gulf Cooperation across the country
Council (GCC) states
In appropriate transportation vehicles
Long history of exporting horticultural
Low per capita consumption
produce including avocado
Availability of short, regular transit to low volumes of exports
attractive market destinations Inadequate logistical, presentation and
packaging avocados
Good climate that allows yields all year
around Low number of exporters
Exporters experienced in out-grower High cost of freight by sea and air
management
Inadequate data for avocado industry
Availability of low back grafted avocado e.g.
Hass High cost of farm input

Strong government support Inadequate provision of supportive services

Good air connections with Europe and the Uneconomical land sizes, low number of trees,
GCC low yields, wrong choice of varieties

Large farmer base – many smallholders Inadequate breeding programs

Harvesting of immature fruits
Established research and training Inadequate Centres of Excellence where
institutions and infrastructure -e.g. KEPHIS, training for avocado can be done
KALRO, JKUAT
Prevalence of pests and diseases
Kenya’s population of over 47 million offer
High post-harvest losses
local consumption
Inadequate volumes for processing
Existence of certified nurseries operators
Unstructured avocado pricing due to lack of
Good network of agro-input suppliers collection clusters
Limited availability of good quality planting
materials
Lack of technical knowledge among the
growers
Limited knowledge on existing varieties &
their attributes

Opportunities Threats

Large smallholder growers – 70% Increased competition from other countries

Diversification to new markets such China Fragmented smallholder growers
Taking advantage of the strong support from High cost credit
public and private sectors
Inadequate measures to enable Kenyan
Formation of farmer cooperatives to improve avocado penetrate special market niche like
profitability and reduce exploitation by “organic” avocado
middle men
Danger from invasive trans-boundary and
To boost volumes of export produce to cash quarantine pest and disease
in from the attractive export prices
Stringent export market requirement
Expand acreage of the Hass variety which has
a competitive edge due to its high oil content Interceptions due high maximum residue
levels (MRL) and presence of quarantine pests
Promote uptake of avocado production to
Heavy capital investments required for value
non-traditional areas
addition and processing
Expand investment as third-party logistics
(3PL) service provider for cold chain, export Recurrent droughts due to climate change
point (JKIA for airfreight) and Mombasa
Port for sea freight).
Diversify products from avocado
Investment in enhanced marketing and
distribution of avocado produce at export
destinations
Tap to supply the deficit at the global and
Africa
To invest in surveillance and monitoring of
pests and diseases
 Opportunities Threats

2.7.4 Legal and Policy Institutional Framework that Support Avocado Growing
Access to food is a fundament right of all humans in the world, and ensuring food security for
humanity has emerged as a global agenda by the United Nations (UN), with Sustainable
Development Goal No. 2- (SDG 2) being dedicated to “End hunger, achieve food security and
improve nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture”.

Regionally, the AU 2063 Agenda and the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development
Programme (CAADP)/ Malabo Declaration is Africa’s policy framework for agricultural
transformation, wealth creation, food security and nutrition, economic growth and prosperity
for all (The World Bank, 2016). The 23rd Ordinary Session of the African Union Assembly held
in June 2014 in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea recommitted to the CAADP principles and goals and
defined a set of targets and goals referred to as the Accelerated Agriculture Growth and
Transformation Goals 2025 (The World Bank, 2016).

In Kenya, the right to food for all citizens is also given prominence in the Kenyan Constitution.
“Every person has the right to be free from hunger, and to have adequate food of acceptable
quality.” As articulated in Article 43, Constitution of Kenya (2010), which further embraces
sustainable exploitation, utilization, management and conservation of the environment and
natural resources, and identifies sustainable development as an important value and principle of
governance. Additionally, various development blueprints have prioritized agriculture as key in
contributing to the achievement of 100% nutrition and food security for the country. These
include the Kenya Vision 2030, the Medium-Term plans and the Big 4 Agenda.
This Avocado Strategy also supports actualization of some of the important regulations,
strategies and policies in the Agriculture sector in Kenya that address the food and nutrition
security agenda of our country. These include;

• Crops Act No. 16, 2013

• Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Act No. 17, 2013
• Agricultural Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy 2019-2029
• Draft National Agriculture Policy, 2016
• National Food and Nutrition Security Policy, 2011
• National Food and Nutrition Security Policy Implementation Framework, 2017- 2022
• Agricultural Sector Development Strategy, 2010-2020
• National Agricultural Sector Extension Policy, 2012
• National Agricultural Research Systems Policy, 2012
• National Horticulture policy, 2012
Ref. World Bank. (2016). Global Monitoring Report 2015.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-monitoring-report (accessed 31 Dec 2015)
3.0 Strategic Direction

3.1 Justification
The avocado fruit has attracted a lot of interest in the counties and among individuals which has
driven investments in production, and other nodes of the value chain. There is Therefore, need
to guide these investments and other interventions to promote a coordinated growth in the
industry.
The Agricultural Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy 2019 is aligned to vision 2030. The
strategy has a high priority on transforming subsistence and informal avocado production to
commercialized farming with a focus on expanding Kenya’s global market share. The
revolutionized avocado farming will catalyze wealth creation and impact a high-quality life
compliant with requirements for high standards of public and environmental health.
The development of this National Avocado Promotion Strategic Plan (NAPSP) is also in tandem
with the implementation and orientation of Kenya Vision 2030, National Food Safety Policy
2013, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030, the Horticulture Policy, and Integrated
National Export Promotion Strategy and CADDP.
Also, The State Department of Crops targets to enhance wealth creation, food and nutrition
security, employment, manufacturing and environmental health, through transformation of the
avocado value chain into commercial enterprises. The present and new challenges in Kenya’s
economic concerns have necessitated the alignment of avocado strategies with the new
developments to steer a robust profitable avocado industry. The NAPSP proposes interventions
that are data-based for the transformation of policy and development approaches in avocado
industry.
This strategy therefore, provides a stimulus for national, county governments and private sector
investment in the avocado industry to transform the sub-sector into a commercial and vibrant
industry that contributes to the country’s food security needs, the development of agro-
industries, employment creation and improved livelihoods.
The specific objectives of this strategy are;

• Establish accurate baseline information which supports realistic vision for avocado
industry
• Design structures and coordination mechanisms for implementation, monitoring and
evaluation by all partners and stakeholders
• Formulate simple, relevant and practical strategies, interventions and activities for the
promotion and development of a vibrant and inclusive avocado industry in Kenya
• Provide sound justification to both national and county governments for additional
budget allocations for the promotion and development of avocado industry
• Provide an effective value proposition to investors and enabling environment for
increased private sector investment in avocado industry
• Mainstream various cross cutting and cross-sectional thematic issues in avocado value
chain development at both national and county levels

3.2 Vision
To be an innovative and commercially viable avocado industry in Africa
3.3 Mission
“To promote the avocado value chain for wealth creation, food and nutrition security,
employment, manufacturing and environmental health”
3.4 Goal
To improve collaboration and coordination among avocado value chain stakeholders, to
collectively pursue the attainment of self-reliance and sustainable development- through
building sufficient capabilities, capacities, social mechanisms and networks.
3.5 Strategic Approach
This strategy is intended to enhance delivery of a sustainable and competitive avocado industry
for Kenyan population, by the year 2027. This strategy is anchored on a new paradigm shift of
developing strategies based on data, Management Information Systems and innovations.
Strategic Pillars
This strategy is driven by 5 key strategic pillars that define the focus of all interventions. The 5
pillars are Production, Marketing, Quality, Processing and Profitability as shown in Figure 7
below against their respective strategic objectives.

Figure 7: Strategic Goal and Objectives

 To enhance delivery of a sustainable and competitive avocado industry for Kenyan population, by the year
2027. It is driven by 5 key strategic pillars which include Production, Marketing, Quality, Processing and Profit
Strategic Pillar No 1: Increase
Production
Strategic objective 1: Establish
seedling varieties on market
demand and agro ecological
zones suitability
Strategic objective 2: Increase
the number of registered and
certified nurseries from 264 to
528.
Strategic objective 3: Increase
average land size from 0.3
acres to minimum of 1 acre
Strategic objective 4: increase
the number of harvested fruits
per tree from 480 to 1000
Strategic objective 5: Develop
35 new mother blocks in the
seven economic blocs
Strategic objective 6: Develop 2
improved varieties in the next 7
years
Strategic objective 7:
Establish 1 regional Centre of
excellence in each of the 6
regional economic blocs.
Strategic Pillar No 2: Improve
Marketing of Avocado
Strategic objective 1: Establish
seedling varieties on market
demand and agro ecological
zones suitability
Strategic objective 2: Increase
the number of marketing hubs
from 4 to 180
Strategic Objective 3:
Increase the number of cool
chain infrastructure to all
aggregation centres in all the
47 counties.
Strategic objective 4: Increase
per capital consumption from
4.5 kg to 13kg
Strategic Objective 5: Increase
the volume of exported
Avocado from 64,477,082 to
362,140,000
Strategic objective 6: Enhance
Product Presentation and
Packaging
Strategic objective 7: Increase
Number of Exporters from 94
to 156
Strategic objective 8: Improve
Marketing Information
Strategic objective 9: Reduce
Freight Cost
Strategic Pillar No 3:
Improve Quality of Avocado
Strategic Objective 1:
Increase the number of
pruning equipment from 1
to 180 and introduce 257,
432 harvesting equipment
Strategic Objective2:
Increase the number of
maturity testing kits from 2
to 180
Strategic Objective 3:
Support 180 aggregation
centers with post-harvest
handling facilities
Strategic Objective 4:
Increase number of post-
harvest treatment facilities
from 47 to 180
Strategic objective 5. Create
30 Pest Free Areas in 7
regional economic blocs
Strategic objective 6: Ensure
100% compliance to National
food safety standards
outlined in the KS1758 part 2
through certification of
Avocado farms.
Strategic Pillar No 4:
Improving Value
Addition/Processing of
Avocado
Strategic objective 1: Increase volume of
processed avocado from 21,575 kgs per day
to 450000 kgs per day
Strategic Pillar No 4: Strategic Pillar No 5:
Improving Value
Improving Profitability of
Addition/Processing of Avocado Farmers
Avocado
Strategic objective 1:
Strategic objective 1: Facilitate 136,622
Increase volume of Registered Farmers to
processed avocado from increase their earning from
21,575 kgs per day to a monthly loss of (45,695)
450000 kgs per day to Profitability of 57,048 in
Strategic objective 2: year 6
Increase capacity
Strategic objective 2:
Utilization from 20% to Establish Equitable Pricing
70% by 2027. of Avocado
Strategic objective3:
Increase the number of
active processors from 2 Strategic objective 3:
to 7 by 2027 Minimize Avocado
Enterprises Risks
Strategic objective 4:
Increase avocado products
from 10 to 20 by 2027.
Strategic objective 5: Increase the
avocado cottages industries from 4 to
180 in the 30 suitable counties for
avocado production by 2027
3.5.1 Strategic Pillar No 1: Increase Production

Among the existing agricultural sectors, horticulture offers the best alternative for increased
food self-sufficiency; food security; improved nutrition; foreign exchange earnings and ensuring
the generation of increased incomes and employment. Avocado has lately become the most sort
after cash crop earner replacing coffee and other traditional cash crops benefiting both farmers
and the country. However, in order to further improve the margins, Kenya has to re-focus on
enhancing production efficiency so as to meet the ever-growing demand – both locally and
internationally.

The strategy aims to increase the national production volumes of avocado fruit from the current
318,087,000 kgs to 762,400,000 kg by 2027 on 103,294 acres of land through engaging 257,432
farmers. The small holder farmers practicing integrated farming are expected to plant 81 trees
per acre each producing 1000 fruits per season at six years age. The medium and large-scale
farmer practicing intensive production can increase the plant population up to 164 trees per acre
in an early return on investment. This can be achieved through the following strategies:

Strategic objective 1: Establish seedling varieties on market demand and agro

ecological zones suitability: The strategy intends to support the farmer to grow the right
varieties for specific market by providing information on the varieties required in the market.
Information will be obtained through undertaking market survey to enable establishment of
nurseries in the 6 economic blocks to supply the demanded high-quality varieties.

Strategic objective 2: Increase the number of registered and certified nurseries

from 264 to 528: In order to increase the supply of certified seedlings there is need to increase
the number of certified nurseries by registering and certifying more commercial nurseries.

The strategy also aims to increase the number of certified seedlings from 5,720,840 to
11,436,000 by advocating for reduction in cost of certification and creating advocacy on seed
certification with the involvement of certified institutions.

Strategic objective 3: Increase average land size from 0.3 acres to minimum of 1
acre: The strategy aims to increase the viability of the smallholder avocado farming by ensuring
each farmer has a minimum of 81 trees in an acre of land. This will be done through developing
long-term land lease template, facilitating development of business plan and identifying suitable
idle land for this earmarked long-term land lease.

Strategic objective 4: increase the number of harvested fruits per tree from 480 to
1000: by the sixth year through implementation of good agricultural practices. This will require
TAs to be trained and linked to service hubs. The TAs will be required to train and support
farmers implement the GAPs.

Strategic objective 5: Develop 35 new mother blocks in the seven economic blocs:
Clean scion availability is critical for increased production of quality planting materials. The
strategy aims to support development of more mother blocks to avail the scions by improving
and developing existing and new mother blocks through identification and mapping of sites for
mother blocks establishment. Efforts will be made to promote variety selection from the
registered mother blocks.

Strategic objective 6: Develop 2 improved varieties in the next 7 years:Avocado

breeding is critical in developing varieties according to ecological zones. The strategy aims to
develop two new varieties during the first seven years of the plan, through establishment of an
avocado breeding program, by identifying traits of economic importance, develop recording and
data evaluation system.

Strategic objective 7: Establish 1 regional Centre of excellence in each of the 6

regional economic blocs: Skills, knowledge, technology and attitude change through centres
of excellence is critical in industry development. The strategy promotes development of a Centre
of excellence in each of the 6 regional economic blocs to enhance practical training for Service
Providers and VCAs through organizing sensitization meetings with the leadership of the 6
institutions, developing TVET curriculum, Training Modules & Assessment Tools. This will also
include recruiting and train Technical Advisors (TAs) & Lead Farmers in skills and finally
conducting follow up & Assessment of the TAs.

Strategic objective 8: Promote avocado skill training in 30 TVETS across the

country and skill 14,453 TAs on Good Agriculture Practice: Skill development through
TVET is critical in supporting knowledge-based graduates to improve practical farm productivity
skills. The strategy aims at sensitizing selected TVET institutions to introduce Avocado
curriculum and train TAs. The capacity needs of the identified TVETs will be assessed in order
to determine the budget requirements for funding the TVET program. Training will be conducted
to TAs and farmers depending on training needs.

Strategic objective 9: Establish 900 practical learning sites in avocado growing

clusters: Demonstration farms also known as practical learning sites are critical in imparting
practical skills to farmers for increased productivity. The strategy aims to support establishment
of a lead farm in every ward in the 30 targeted counties to avail practical learning sites closer to
farmers by visiting and assessing trained lead avocado farmers and upgrade the avocado farms
to serve as teaching centers. Follow up & Assessment of farmer training by TAs will be done
continuously.

Strategic objective 10: Link all the 180 clusters to at least 1 registered agro dealer:
Access to quality and affordable inputs and services is critical in enhancing productivity. The
strategy aims at ensuring each farmer is linked to a certified agro dealer working through the
cluster management for supply of farms inputs. The agro dealers will be sensitized and trained
and linked to TAs and clusters.

Strategic objective 11: Develop real time avocado industry data to improve accuracy
from 60% to 90%: Real time data is critical in decision making, research, management,
production and marketing in the avocado industry. The strategy aims to develop a county based
digital management information system through developing and digitizing data collection tools
and development of the data collection system. The data will be overlaid in the MIS with satellite
imaging data.

Theory of change

The thrust of increased production is based on changing extension service from farmer training
to farm management approach. Technical Advisors (TAs) will be skilled to support farmers to
manage over 200 trees each to ensure maximum production through GAP, access to services,
financial and market linkages. The TAs will be skilled on GAP in Avocado production through
the TVETS curricula that will be linked to centers of excellence based in universities. The TAs
will be managed and paid by bulking center committees supported by county extension staff who
will oversee and ensure quality of service.
3.5.2: Strategic Pillar No 2: Improve Marketing of Avocado

The overall focus of this strategy is to spur growth in production which will increase volumes
hereafter enlarge markets. The marketing pillar will ensure the availability of the volumes
demanded by consumers and buyers; quality specifications for various buyers and development
for Kenyan avocado brand. Currently the prime avocado market for Kenya is EU followed by
middle East and Far East.

These destinations are served by the four distinct local marketing channels. The first is direct
sale to exporters, the second is through marketing agents and the third is collective marketing by
groups of farmers and fourth by contract selling. The third is the most attractive to buyers as they
are assured of volumes while sellers enhance bargaining power. Contract selling is very unstable
as both partners don’t strictly adhere to the contractual agreements.

To ensure this pillar achieves it optimal purpose, here below are the strategic interventions, to
address the marketing of the fruit for both local and international markets: –

Strategic Objective 1: Improve the distribution of avocado to all 47 counties: The

strategy plans to improve the distribution of avocado in the 47 counties. This will be achieved by
facilitating establishment of 180 aggregation centres by 2027 - complete with appropriate
handling and storage facilities and equipment. These will be done in close collaboration with
counties and through public and private partnerships. The existing and new avocado retailers
will be facilitated to increase their sales quantities by running promotional campaigns through
print, audio and social media on the benefits of avocado consumption and use as a cash crop.

Strategic objective 2: Increase the number of marketing hubs from 4 to 180: The
current avocado marketing structure is not organized and formalized to enable farmers maximize
on economies of scale. The strategy aims to address this by creating 180 marketing hubs by
registering each hub as a legal entity, where farmers and other actors will be registered into. The
hubs will be governed by elected leadership while the day to day activities will be managed by a
technical management team. The stakeholders subscribed to the hubs will be capacity built on
their deliverables, so as to ensure a profitable avocado business for all the actors.

Strategic Objective 3: Increase the number of cool chain infrastructure to all

aggregation centres in all the 47 counties: To ensure access of the avocado fruit by all
Kenyans in the 47 counties, cooling facilities will be required for storing the fruit once collected
and distributed from the producing counties. The strategy plans to facilitate establishment of
cooling facilities through PPP.

Strategic objective 4: Increase per capital consumption from 4.5 kg to 13kg: To

ensure increased marketing volumes, the strategy aims to increase the per capita consumption
from current 4.5kgs to 13kgs per person per year by 2027. This will be done through promotion
of health benefits of avocado consumption, development of new avocado recipes/cuisines,
development of new products and improved convenient packaging. The strategy plans to run
promotions during county cultural weeks; radio spots, TV promo scripts and social media
platforms. Further, to improve availability of the fruit to all consumers, all outlets (informal and
formal, small, medium, and large-scale retail) will be linked to aggregation centres. The informal
traders include kiosks, street vendors and hawkers.

Strategic Objective 5: Increase the volume of exported Avocado from 64,477,082 to

362,140,000: The strategy plans to increase volumes exported through improved compliance
to consumers specifications by facilitating training and access to GAPS, harvesting and post-
harvest handling and storage technologies of avocados. This will also include targeted promotion
of Kenyan avocado in the international markets through the BrandKE and various International
conferences to vigorously promote demand for Kenyan fruits while maintaining current markets.
The strategy will ensure the State Department responsible for international trade initiates and
conclude all trade agreements.

The local market quality infrastructure at aggregation centres will be facilitated to undertake
maturity testing, and stop marketing of immature avocados. In addition, the capacities of
laboratories and other agencies for enforcing quality will be assessed to ascertain their capacities
and capability for maturity testing.

Strategic objective 6: Enhance Product Presentation and Packaging: The strategy

plans to review and enforce regulations on packaging of avocados for export so as to reach the
buyer in good condition. The strategy will also advocate for capacity building of exporters in
costing and pricing to enhance competitiveness of Kenyan fruits in the international markets.

Strategic objective 7: Increase Number of Exporters from 94 to 156:The strategy plans

to increase the number of active exporters through re-activation of the dormant traders. This
will be done through facilitated market survey conducted to establish factors affecting such
variables like market access, information gaps, types of information on various platforms mostly
visited by existing and potential clients, avocado products mostly demanded and any other
information that may benefit exporters. The survey findings will also inform what needs to be
changed, and how to tap into new markets and new products for export. The exporters will also
undergo training in business skills and various market standards to improve efficiency thus
reduce costs.

Strategic objective 8: Improve Marketing Information: The strategy plans to improve

dissemination of available data and streamline the remote accessibility to data by all value chain
actors. Such information may include the current and emerging global markets, production
projections in major exporting countries; new market regulations; varieties required; quantities
and prices offered. The strategy will also ensure avocado related portals are integrated to
websites of line ministries, relevant departments and agencies such as KOMEX, Ken Invest
portal, and relevant company websites among others.

Strategic objective 9: Reduce Freight Cost: The current air and sea freight charges on
Kenyan fruits are high due to lack of logistical support to exporters to enhance efficient
movement of the fruit from farm to various market destination entry points. The strategy aims
to develop close working relationship between shipping companies, Kenya Airports Authority,
Kenya Ports Authority and SGR in order to move consignments efficiently to market
destinations. Such collaboration will also be pursued to maximize on all logistical resources
available.

Strategic objective 10: Enforcement of Standards: The existing avocado handling

protocols are outdated and need urgent reviews to align to the current market requirements. All
value chain players in avocado will be sensitized on the new protocol for avocado production,
handling and storage to improve compliance to market standards and specifications. The
avocado clusters will be prepared for certification through training on GAP and on other aspects
such as safe use of chemicals, hygiene, and record keeping. An independent certifying body will
be called for inspection and certification on Global GAP and KS 1758.
Strategic objective 10: Improve Traceability: The strategy will facilitate establishment of
traceability system which will include all records of all activities carried out at the farm level
through to the market. AFA as the regulator will ensure this is complied with.

Theory of Change

Facilitate a total transformation in the marketing of both domestic and international avocado
businesses, by continuously empowering the businesses to consistently meet the buyer
expectation and regulatory requirements.

3.5.3: Strategic Pillar No 3: Improve Quality of Avocado

This pillar aims to enhance the Quality of the Avocado fruit for both domestic and international
markets. Kenya’s small share of the global trade (3.3%) is largely attributed to the quality
issues.
The quality pillar will seek to ensure the issues affecting and hindering achievement of quality
fruit are addressed through the following strategic objectives:
Strategic Objective 1: Increase the number of pruning equipment from 1 to 180 and
introduce 257, 432 harvesting equipment: Post-harvest losses contribute to loss of income
and revenues which can be prevented by, facilitating harvesters with harvesting poles, pruning
equipment, training the harvesters on SOPs, and handling of the fruit.
Strategic Objective2: Increase the number of available oil content testing kits from
2 to 180: The strategy aims to develop and implement a sampling and inspection protocol which
will facilitate monitoring and harvesting of mature fruits. TAs will be facilitated with maturity
testing kits and will be trained on their use. Farmers and harvesters will be facilitated with
harvesting kits and trained on SOPs for harvesting of the fruit.
Strategic Objective 3: Support 180 aggregation centers with post-harvest handling
facilities: Quality starts from farm to market destination. To actualize this, the strategy aims to
facilitate set up of post-harvest handling facilities at each aggregation Centre. This will be done
through a feasibility study to be conducted to select appropriate sites in each cluster. The
handling facility will contain and not limited to, a food grade holding shed, crates and
refrigerated truck.
Strategic Objective 4: Increase number of post-harvest treatment facilities from 47
to 180: Treatment facilities are key in ensuring safe handling of the fruit. The strategy proposes
to identify suitable sites for establishing the treatment facilities in each avocado producing Ward
after conducting an impact assessment study. Many a times moisture loss contributes to reduced
shelf life of the fruit. The facilities will also facilitate exporters with a sorting, grading and waxing
machines.
Strategic objective 6. Create 30 Pest Free Areas in 7 regional economic blocs: The
strategy aims to create pest free areas in the 7 regional blocks by holding awareness campaigns
amongst stakeholders. The process will begin by conducting a baseline survey and mapping of
avocado production zones. The strategy will then promote implementation of integrated pest
management to minimize use of pesticides. Avocado orchards will be monitored to maintain pest
free status and facilitate the certification of production sites as PFA. Common user packhouses
will be facilitated to acquire post-harvest treatment facilities to eliminate quarantine pests of
Avocado.
Strategic objective 7: Ensure 100% compliance to National food safety standards
outlined in the KS1758 part 2 through certification of Avocado farms: Consumer
safety has been advocated nationwide and by import countries. Compliance to pesticide residue
maximum limits and microbial contaminants prevention are a key requirement to ensure safe
fruit. The strategy intends to create awareness on compliance to national horticulture standards
to comply with fruit safety requirements and enhance market access. producers and exporters
will be required to be certified to KS1758 standard.
Theory of Change
This strategy proposes a paradigm shift from quantity attributes of maximizing returns to quality
aspects at points of production, harvesting, transportation and processing. Emphasis is placed
on the quality of each fruit to fetch premium prices across the value chain and minimize losses
that account to over 60% as a result of poor production procedures (Chege et al., 2006).
3.4.4: Strategic Pillar No 4: Improving Value Addition/Processing of Avocado

This pillar aims to enhance avocado processing from current 21,575 kgs to 450,000 kgs per day,
through increase of current capacities from 20% to 70%, increasing processing industries from
2-to-7 and cottage industries from 4-to-180.To achieve this goal, the following strategic
objectives will be of essence to achieve the aspirations of this pillar.
Strategic objective 1: Increase volume of processed avocado from 21,575 kgs per day
to 450000 kgs per day: The strategy aims to achieve this intervention through
characterization of avocado varieties to establish those suitable for oil processing. It will also
promote establishment of nurseries propagating varieties with high oil content (>20%) and of
20% dry matter.
Strategic objective 2: Increase capacity Utilization from 20% to 70% by 2027: The
avocado value addition is currently under performing due to competition between fresh and
processing volumes. The strategy aims to increasing the current capacity by developing a data-
based production plan and volumes of raw materials required. The strategy will start by profiling
all existing avocado facilities and offer them training on product improvement and any other
needed training. It will link them to hubs and/ or aggregation centres.
Strategic objective3: Increase the number of active processors from 2 to 7 by 2027:
Kenya currently has two active processor. The strategy aims to establish a processor in each of
the 7 economic blocs, starting in the 30 producing counties. The strategy plans first to conduct
feasibility studies and environmental impact assessments for suitable sites, encourage
participation of all stakeholders, and both national and county governments to provide
incentives to the investors who may wish to establish avocado processing plants.
Strategic objective 4: Increase avocado products from 10 to 20 by 2027:The number
of avocado products currently remain narrow and only include, oils, cosmetics, frozen avocado,
avocado based yogurts, smoothies, puree (guacamole), salads and juices. The strategy intends to
facilitate new product development initiatives. This will be achieved through product profiling,
facilitating; feasibility study, establishment of a start-up fund, research on product development
and promotion and campaigns of the new products.
Strategic objective 5: Increase the avocado cottages industries from 4 to 180 in the
30 suitable counties for avocado production by 2027: To ensure more volumes are
absorbed into value-addition, the strategy aims to set up more cottage industries. It is hoped the
cottage industries will be attractive to vulnerable groups and marginalized populations such as
women and youth. The process will start by conducting a survey and profiling existing avocado
cottage industries. It will further facilitate feasibility studies of the individual cottage industries
and advertise for submission of start-up proposals to county governments. Furthermore, it will
facilitate establishment of incubation and innovation centres by setting up a start up financing
fund.
Theory of Change
The strategy will promote the expansion of value addition which will leverage on finished and
semi-processed products to benefit all particularly the vulnerable and marginalized populations.
It will also provide an opportunity for research to establish which other varieties, other than Hass
and Fuerte are appropriate for oil and other value addition /processing.
3.5.5: Strategic Pillar No 5: Improving Profitability of Avocado Farmers

Smallholder farmers form the bulk of avocado production in Kenya. They are mainly motivated
to growing avocados for a range of reasons and yet make minimal earnings.
The profitability pillar aims to facilitate and spur growth of these smallholder initiatives to
commercially viable enterprises - by enabling all value chain actors to make profits at every stage
of the industry. This will require a pricing model at each transfer point of the fruit along the value
chain for the benefit of all, while minimizing costs associated with transfer and multiple handling
of the fruit. The strategic objectives that will contribute to profitable enterprise are:
Strategic objective 1: Facilitate 136,622 Registered Farmers to increase their
earning from a monthly loss of (45,695) to Profitability of 57,048 in year 6: The
strategy aims to increase the profit of registered farmers by facilitating them to plat at least 81
certified seedlings to spur volume and number of fruits per day at year 6. To achieve this the
farmers will be provided with technical support through the farm management model.
Strategic objective 2: Establish Equitable Pricing of Avocado: To accomplish an
equitable pricing model that will be beneficial for all value chain actors, the strategy aims at
develop and implement an integrated data collection system capturing all costs for inputs and
services at all stages of the value-chain. All actors will be trained on costing and pricing
approaches so as to remain competitive.
Strategic objective 3: Minimize Avocado Enterprises Risks: The avocado farmers
experience a lot of risks such as weather, price fluctuation, non-payments and produce rejections
associated with production and marketing. The strategy will facilitate the development and
implementation of financial services products for all value chain actors that incorporate
insurance. The strategy will also facilitate access by avocado value chain actors to a commodity
fund to be set-up.
Strategic objective 4: Link at least 200 avocado trees to a Private Technical
Advisor: Farmers are making losses due to low productivity as a result of low skills in avocado
orchard management. In order to improve access to production technologies, the strategy aims
to link farmers to private Technical Advisors. Each hub shall set aside a fund for payment of
the TA salary for first 2 years. In addition, a sustainable financing model will be implemented
at each hub for paying the TA thereafter.
4.0 Implementation of the strategy
4.1 Introduction
This strategy intends to enhance delivery of a sustainable, profitable and competitive avocado
industry for the people of Kenya by the year 2027. The focus will be to revitalize the areas of
production, marketing, quality, processing and profitability of all value chain actors. While
ensuring all institutions and players both public and private are addressing the strategic issues
in the five pillars.
The national government through Horticultural Crop Directorate will take the lead and engage
all other stakeholders through development of Memorandum of Understanding (MoUs) and
contractual agreements between relevant parties willing to support implementation of this
strategy. The State Department of Crops will again, lead in areas of policy formulation, capacity
building, development and dissemination of national and regional standards, and market
development in close consultation with line ministries, donor agencies and private sector.
Technical assistance, identification of centres of excellence, research and technology
development will be done in collaboration with national government, private sector, donor
agencies and any other relevant stakeholder. On the other hand, the county governments will
mainly be involved in domestication of the strategy and actual implementation of activities, data
collection and enforcement of all quality standards. Here below is the detailed implementation
matrix.
Log frame
4.2 Implementation of the strategy
Table 10: Logical Framework

Intervention Logic Key Performance Indicators Means of verification Important

Assumptions
Goal of the strategy: To improve Number of meetings for various partners in Minutes of the meetings The partners will
collaboration and coordination avocado value chain Activity reports be willing to
among avocado value chain actors Number of joint activities for avocado value participate in joint
and stakeholders, to collectively chain activities
pursue the attainment of self-
reliance and sustainable
development- through building
sufficient capabilities, capacities,
social mechanisms and networks.
Purpose: Build commercially viable Number of commercial avocado enterprises Registration certificates Shareholders
avocado enterprises established willing to
participate
Outcomes: Improved and Number of avocado businesses set-up Audited accounts Farmer willing to
sustainable avocado businesses set- participate in
up audits
Pillar I: Production
Objective: Develop real time Updated real time data along avocado value Management Information System Stakeholders
avocado industry data to improve chain developed willing to collect
accuracy from 60% to 90% and provide data
Intervention Logic
Facilitate avocado farmers to access
quality inputs and services
Key Performance Indicators Means of verification Important
Assumptions
Number of avocado clusters formed Report on farmers access to inputs Input suppliers
Numbers of farmers linked to agro- dealers and services willing to
Number of farmers linked to financial participate
services
Number of farmers linked to technical
advisors
Number of contracts signed between
farmers and buyers
The amount of grants available to provide
inputs and services to farmers on credit

Farmers willing to
Implemented good Average kilograms of adopt better
Increase the number of harvested fruits produced per tree per year under Report on services provided and agronomic
fruits from 480 to 1000 good agricultural practices output of fruits practices
Increase average land size from 0.3 Number of acres of idle suitable land, Report on farmers who have
acres to minimum of 1 acre. Template for long term land lease, increased land under avocado Farmers willing to
Number of business plans for avocado production, acquire more lease
production land

Promote propagation of demanded Number of nurseries certified Registration and certification of

varieties by nurseries nurseries Scientist wiling to
List of Linked nurseries to farmers
avail better traits
Promote moisture conservation training farmers on use of efficient
Farmers willing to
technologies and modern conservation adopt the
Number of farmers trained techniques technology
Availability of
Develop 2 new improved varieties in Reports on new improved varieties improved varieties
the next 10 years Number of trial sites for the new varieties released
Develop 35 new mother blocks in Number of mother blocks established Report on mother blocks Willing of
the six economic blocs Number of registered mother blocks established stakeholder to
invest into new
mother blocks
Intervention Logic
Increase the number of registered
and certified nurseries from 264 to
528
To increase the number of certified
seedlings from 5,720,840 to
11,436,000
Establish the varieties of avocados
in the young orchards
Link all the 180 clusters to at least 1
registered agro dealer
Skill all the 14,453 Technical
Advisors on good agriculture
practice
Establish 1 regional Centre of
excellence in each of the economic
blocs
Promote avocado skill tracing in 30
TVETS across the country
To avail 900 practical learning sites
closer to farmers
Key Performance Indicators Means of verification Important
Assumptions
Number of certified nurseries Report of certified and registered Stakeholders
nurseries willing to invest
Number of nursery operators trained on Report on the number of certified Stakeholders
productivity improvement, seedlings sold to farmers willing to invest
Number of certified seedlings,
Number of nurseries improved
Number of immature seedlings with Report on the number of Stakeholders
inappropriate varieties, immature trees top worked with willing to invest
Number of immature trees top worked the appropriate varieties
Stakeholders
Number of linkages established between the willing to be linked
agro-dealers and clusters Report of the linkages established
Availability of TAs
No of Technical Advisors trained in Training report for the Technical to be engaged
practical skills Advisors
Number of avocado training Centres of Report on established avocado Willingness of
excellence Centres of excellence Universities to
participate
Number of TVETS imparting skills in Reports on TVETS training on Willingness of
Technical advisor/farmer avocado TVETs to
participate
Number of avocado demonstration farms Reports on 900 avocado practical Farmers
sites for farmers willingness to
participate

Pillar 2: Marketing
Market survey report Report on distribution outlets and Willingness of
Objective 1: To improve the
Actual Volumes marketed in Kenya quantities of avocado sold in all stakeholders to get
distribution of avocado to all 47
Number of Distributors (local market) counties involved
counties
Increase the number of marketing Number of avocado clusters formed Reports on the number of clusters Farmers
hubs from 4 to 270 Leaders elected and trained formed and trained willingness to
make hubs
Intervention Logic
To raise to 100% the hubs with
Business Plans
To increase the number of cool
chain infrastructure to cover 47
counties
Increase per capita consumption
from 4.47 kg to 12kg
Increase the volume of exported
Avocado from 64,477,082 to
362,140,000 by 2027
Enhance product movement,
presentation and packaging
Increase the number of active
exporters from 94 to 156
Reduce the sea freight costs for
Kenyan avocado
Pillar 3: Quality
Key Performance Indicators Means of verification Important
Assumptions
Number of Business Plan developed Documented business plans Farmers
willingness to do
BP
Number of cool chain facilities (aggregation Report on cold chain for avocado Willingness of
Centre stores, refrigerated trucks and stakeholders to get
county cold stores) involved
Per capita consumption Report on per capita consumption Willingness of
Average kilograms of Avocado consumed on of avocado by households. stakeholders to get
farms involved
Actual Export volumes Reports on avocado trade in
Number of new markets export market Willingness of
Number of bilateral agreements signed stakeholders to get
Number contracts developed and signed involved
Number of new brands developed
Number of manufacture’s producing quality Reports for manufacturers Willingness of
packaging materials producing quality materials and stakeholders to get
Minutes of meetings for trade facilitation exporters implementing standards involved
committees Minutes of the meetings
Number of exporters implementing the
standards
Cost of packaging materials reduced
No of sale point developed/improved
Number of business plans developed Number f business plans Willingness of
Number of sessions on productivity documented stakeholders to get
improvement conducted per year Reports on productivity involved
improvement
Number of clearing and forwarding agents Number Training reports Willingness of
trained in logistics, Reports of number of containers stakeholders to get
Number of containers moved by SGR moved by SGR. involved
Amount of logistic cost reduced
Intervention Logic
Create area wide Pest Free Areas in
the 6 regional economic blocs
Stop sale of immature avocado to
export market
Reduce post-harvest loss from 4.5%
to 1% through proper harvesting
methods
Facilitate cool chain facilities
establishment in each of the 180
clusters
Increase post-harvest shelf life from
4 to 10 days
Increase the number of Post-harvest
treatment facilities from 2 to 6 in
Key Performance Indicators Means of verification Important
Assumptions
Number of area wide Pest Free Areas Reports on Pest Free Areas Willingness of
(PFAs) stakeholders to get
Number of production sites involved
Number of maturity testing kit
No of maturity testing kits Report indicating cease of Willingness of
Number trained on maturity testing marketing of immature avocado stakeholders to get
No of cases of immature fruit trade stopped involved
Number of certificates Implement an inspection protocol Willingness of
No of kits Facilitate acquisition of a dry stakeholders to get
Number of new inspectors matter maturity testing kit participate
Recruit additional inspectors
Train the harvesters on the
Standard Operating Procedures
Implement the harvesting
Standard Operating Procedures
Facilitate acquisition of harvesting
kits
Number of harvesting, pruning machines Reports on the percentage of post- Willingness of
and pole harvest losses in avocados stakeholders to get
Number of people trained involved
Standard operating procedure developed
Number of environmental impact Report on cool chain facilities Willingness of
assessments for avocado undertaken established stakeholders to get
Number of established 40 Ton cool chain participate
facilities
Number bulk coolers
number of refrigerated trucks acquired by
the clusters
Number of post-harvest handling and Report on the length of shelf-life Willingness of
treatment facilities established of avocado fruits stakeholders to get
participate
Number of post-harvest treatment facilities Report on the post- harvest Willingness of
(Export) treatment facilities established stakeholders to get
Average post-harvest loss percentage participate
Intervention Logic
the four-exit points Mombasa,
Nairobi, Eldoret & Kisumu
Processing Pillar IV
To avail adequate raw material to
increase processing volumes from
21575 to 450000 kg per day
Increase installed capacity
utilization from 20% to 70%
To increase the number of active
processors from 2 to 7
To increase the number of avocado
cottages industries from 4 to 180
women and youth cottage industry
Pillar 5: Profitability
To establish equitable pricing of
avocados
Key Performance Indicators Means of verification Important
Assumptions
Number of varieties characterized Report on the volumes of avocado Willingness of
Number of nurseries propagating varieties availed for processing stakeholders to get
with oil content participate
Volumes of Avocado processed in kg/ day
Data base of existing processing facilities Report on the avocado processing Willingness of
Number of processors trained in capacities utilized stakeholders to get
productivity improvement participate
Daily processing capacity per processor
recorded
Number of processors linked to production
hubs
Number of industry standards in processing
Number of active avocado processors Report on the active avocado oil Willingness of
Number of feasibility studies conducted processors stakeholders to get
Number of environmental impact participate
assessment conducted
Number of meetings for investors held
Amount of incentives availed
Number of cottage avocado SMEs Report on the number of cottages Willingness of
Number of feasibility studies conducted established stakeholders to get
Number of advertisements announced participate
Number of incubations centres established
Number of researches conducted for
avocado product developed
Number of campaigns designed
Number of pricing model developed Report on the pricing model Willingness of
Number of value chain players trained on established stakeholders to get
appropriate costing and pricing and its participate
benefits
Intervention Logic Key Performance Indicators Means of verification Important
Assumptions
Number of insurance products for avocado Report on the risks in avocado Willingness of
VCA, value chain stakeholders to get
To minimize avocado enterprises Number of avocado value chain actors participate
risks accessing insurance
Number of insurance products
Link at least 200 avocado trees to a No Technical advisors Reports on the technical advisors Willingness of
private technical advisor Budgets developed to cater for the TAs recruited stakeholders to get
salary for 2 years participate
Establish at least 20 Tons cool chain Titles of land availed by government for Report on cool chain facilities Willingness of
facility capacity at each aggregation establishment of aggregation centres established at each in aggregation stakeholders to get
center Number bulk coolers established in project centres participate
counties
5.0 Monitoring and Evaluation for Avocado Promotion Strategy
5.1 Avocado Promotion Information System
A harmonized Avocado promotion Information System which generates data reflecting all
stakeholders and embracing the national and county governments is essential for enhancing the
implementation of Avocado interventions. The data is essential for tracking programs
performance, financial resources and building an evidence base for decision making.

The Strategy aims to build an effective monitoring and evaluation system to track and assess the
performance of the its implementation and supporting programs at both national and county
level. The full potential for the avocado promotion information system can be harnessed if the
system covers all required data levels from the Ward, Sub-county, County and all the way to
National level. This mode of delivering information will be efficient because data will be analyzed,
interpreted and used at the point of collection and relayed to the various levels (ward, sub-
county, county and the national level) for decision making and feedback.

To efficiently track program performance and resources to the interventions, a monitoring

framework will be developed based on the Avocado Promotion goal, objectives, strategic pillar
objectives, interventions, Activities, and output indicators discussed in section 3 above.

5.2 Purpose for the Monitoring Framework

The monitoring framework will enable Avocado promotion stakeholders track routine and
periodic indicators identified for activities and actions. The framework will essentially help
Avocado promotion strategy implementers measure the processes, interventions, changes and
successes accrued. The progress of implementation will be measured by monitoring and tracking
output indicators throughout the life of the plan (see output indicators in the implementation
plan 4.0). During the tracking progress, the relevant national and county persons will be able to
immediately know the status of the interventions and accordingly provide feedback.

In addition, standard reporting formats will be developed to capture all the information and
other significant events and outcomes within the target groups/counties. The county relevant
department will be expected to provide quarterly information on the progress in the
implementation of the planned activities and any achievements.
In respect to evaluations, the State Department of Crops will develop impact indicators to be
assessed at end of each five-year implementation cycle. Findings of any evaluations will be made
public and both national and county governments and private sector will be encouraged to
implement the recommendations.
6.0 Annexes
Annexes
Annex I: Implementation Matrix
The Implementation Matrix outlines how the strategic issues described in section three above
will be carried out. The matrix is broken down into key strategic issues, objective, intervention,
activities and output level indicators as related to each of the five complementary pillars. All the
actions areas reference the vision and goal of this avocado promotion strategy – creating
sustainable and profitable avocado enterprises.
Table II: Implementation Matrix

Marketing pillar
Strategic Issue Strategic Objective Strategic Activities Output Indicators
Intervention

Poor distribution of To improve the Establish Facilitate existing and new avocado Number of open markets
avocado fruits distribution of appropriate retailers to increase their sales
avocado to all 47 distribution
counties channels Carry out a market survey Market survey report

Develop a digital distribution platform Number of local markets

A small number of Increase the Establish more Facilitate the start -up of marketing hubs Number of avocado cluster/Farmer
marketing hubs number of marketing hubs associations established
marketing hubs
from 4 to 180 Sensitize the county on marketing hubs Number of counties sensitized

Farmer mobilization and registration Number of farmers mobilized and

registered

Register the hub into a legal entity Number of hubs registered as legal
entities
 Capacity build on leadership and Number of leaders trained on
governance governance

Capacity build the wider -stakeholders on Number of wider stakeholders trained

the marketing hubs on marketing hubs

Inadequate cold chain To increase the Promote PPP Facilitate establishment of county cold Number of county cold stores
infrastructure number of cold arrangement in stores
chain infrastructure setting up cold
to all 47 counties chain infrastructure Open markets

Average of Avocado sold in the informal

traders

Number of groceries (super market)

Low per-capital Increase per capital Promote local and Facilitate development of new avocado Per capita consumption
consumption consumption from home consumption recopies
4.5 kg to 13kg Average kilograms of Avocado
consumed on farms.

Conduct avocado Design and roll out radio avocado eating Number of radio avocado eating
promotions messages messages

Design and roll out TV avocado eating Number of TV avocado eating messages
messages

Design and roll out avocado eating in Number of avocado eating messages on
social media platforms social media platforms

Low volumes of exported Increase the volume Promote sales to Source for more international Actual Export
avocado fruits of exported international clients/customers
Avocado from markets
64,477,082 to Facilitate international fares and
362,140,000 exhibitions
 Conduct annual market surveys and Number of new markets established
publish finding

Initiate and promote trade agreement Number of bilateral agreements signed

between countries

Initiate and promote trade contract with Number contracts developed and
existing and new clients signed

Facilitate brand development Number of new brands developed

poor presentation and To enhance product Improve the quality Facilitate access to quality packaging Number of manufactures producing
packaging of avocado presentation and of packaging materials quality packaging materials
fruits packaging material
Implement packaging material standards Number of exporters implementing the
standards

Facilitate reduction Advocate for zero rating of packaging Report on cost of packaging materials
in cost of packaging materials zero rated
materials

Low number avocado Increase the Provide Develop business plans for exporters Number of business plants developed
exporters number of active information on
exporters from 94 avocado export
Provide timely market information Number of periodicals per year
to 156 business

Registered Marketing Agents

Total number of registered exporters

Number active exporters

High cost of freight To reduce the cost Identify Expand clearing and forwarding agents Number of clearing and forwarding
of freight competitive freights agents
Productivity
Strategic Issue Strategic Objective Strategic Activity Output indicators
Intervention

Uneconomical land sizes To increase average Structure long-term Identify suitable idle land for long term Acres of land in the areas suitable for
land size from 0.3 land leases to leasing avocado production
acres to minimum avocado farmers
of 1 acre under Develop long term land lease template Template developed
avocado
Facilitate development of business plan Number of business plans developed

Lack of avocado breeding To develop two new Establish an Identify traits of economic importance Number of breeding farms with traits of
programs and improved avocado breeding economic importance
avocado varieties in program
the next 10 years Develop recording system for new Recording system developed
breeds

Few available quality To develop 35 new Improve and Develop data evaluation system for new Data evaluation system developed
mother blocks mother blocks in develop existing mother blocks
the seven economic and new mother
blocs blocks Identify the sites for planting of mother Number of identified sites for mother
blocks blocks

Establish the mother blocks Number of mother blocks established

Register mother blocks Number of registered mother blocks

Low number of registered To increase the Improve availability Register all commercial nurseries Number of certified nurseries
and certified nurseries number of of certified
registered and nurseries
Certify all registered nurseries Number of certified nurseries
certified nurseries
from 264 to 528
Low number of certified To increase the Advocate for Create advocacy on seed certification Total number of certified seedlings
seedlings number of certified reduction in cost of
seedlings from certification
5,720,840 to
11,436,000

Unplanned seedling To establish Provide Undertake market survey to facilitate Survey report
establishments seedling varieties as information on the establishment of varieties demanded
per market demand varieties required in
and agroecological the market Plant seedlings as per the requirements
zones suitability of the 7 economic blocks

Immature trees that are Reduce immature Carry out Identify land under immature trees Land under immature trees
not true to type as per trees not to type and surveillance on
farmers demand demand immature orchards

Lack of accurate data on To develop real Develop a digital Develop and digitize data collection tools Report on avocado data
avocado industry time avocado management
industry data to information system
Pretest and validate the tools Number of tools pretested and validated
improve accuracy
from 60% to 90%
Develop the information capture Data capture system developed
system/software

Undertake data collection Data collected

Overlay the data in MIS with satellite

imaging data

Low number of harvested Increase the Keep records of fruits per tree Average kilograms of fruits produced per
fruits per mature tree number of tree per year
 harvested fruits per Implement good Train technical advisors on good Number of TAs trained on good
tree from 480 to agricultural agriculture practice agricultural practices
1000 practices
Link technical advisors to farmers and Number of linked Tas to farmers
farms

Link farms to service hubs Number of farms linked to hubs

Weak linkages in the To link all the 180 Ensure all Carry out sensitization and training Number of sensitization training
farms clusters to at least 1 registered avocado workshop workshops held
registered agro- farmers access
dealer quality inputs and
Link all TAs to agro-dealers Number of TAs linked to agro-dealers
services

Link all clusters to agro-dealers Number of clusters linked

Majority of the trained TA To skill all the Transform all TAs Map out existing TAs Number of TAs who have practicals
have limited skills 14,453 TAs on good from theory to
agriculture practice practicals Conduct orientation training Training report

Recruit and link TAs to famers Number of recruited TAs

Train TAs on practical modules Number of Tas trained

Lack of horticultural To establish 1 Introduce practical Organize sensitization meetings with the Number of avocado training centres of
centres of excellence regional Centre of training for Service leadership of the 7 institutions excellence
excellence in each Providers and VCAs
of the 7 regions' in Horticulture Develop TVET curriculum, Training Number of curriculums developed
Modules & Assessment Tools
 Recruit and train Technical Advisors Number of TAs developed
(TAs) and lead farmers in skills
acquisition

Follow ups and assessment of the TAs Follow-up and assessment report

Inadequate access to To avail practical To establish 900 Visit and assess trained lead avocado Number of practical learning sites
practical learning sites learning sites closer practical learning farmers
to farmers sites in avocado
growing wards Upgrade the avocado farms to serve as Number of upgraded avocado farms
teaching centres

Follow up and Assessment of farmer Number of farmers trained by TAs

training by TAs

Existing TVET Institution To promote Introduce Avocado Identify the suitable TVETs Number of suitable TVETs
do not offer skills for avocado skill curriculum in
avocado training in 30 selected TVETs Assess existing capacity Report on existing capacity
TVETS across the
country
Develop budgets for funding TVET Report on required budget
programs

Undertake training Report on training

Quality
Strategic Issues Strategic Objectives Strategic Activity Output Indicators
Interventions

Poor post-harvesting To reduce on Adopt proper post- Promote use of proper harvesting Number of farmers adopting proper post-
handling methods average the post- harvest handling habits harvest technologies
harvest loss technologies
 Harvesting of premature To eliminate Enforce use of Train harvesters and farmers on the use Number of harvesters and farmers
fruits harvesting of maturity testing of maturity testing gadgets trained on use of maturity gadgets
premature fruits gadgets at farm
level

Poor crop husbandry To improve avocado Enhance proper Plant doctors to develop and implement A protocol on avocado crop husbandry
quality crop husbandry for protocols of crop husbandry developed
quality avocado

Poor quality inputs To improve the Enhance access to Register and license suppliers and Number of registered suppliers and
quality of farm quality and dealers of farm inputs by KEBS, PCPB, dealers
inputs affordable farm KEPHIS
inputs
Sensitize farmers on availability, Number of sensitized farmers
accessibility and use of quality inputs

Value Addition/Processing

Strategic Issue Strategic Objective Strategic Activities Output Indicators

Intervention

Inadequate volumes for To avail adequate Promote increased Identify characterization of avocado Number of identified varieties
processing due to raw materials to production of varieties for processing
competition for oil variety increase processing varieties suitable
volumes from for avocado Increase the number of mother blocks Number of mother blocks propagating
21,575kg to processing products propagating varieties such as Duke Duke and other suitable varieties
450,000 kg per day variety

Increase production of duke variety by Avocado processed in kg/ day

sensitizing farmer to plant more of
them

Facilitate feasibility study Daily processing capacity per processor

Low capacity utilization of
existing industries to
process avocado products
Low number of processors
in Kenya
Low number of avocado
cottage industries
Low number of avocado
products
Increase installed Develop data-based Facilitate environmental impact Environmental impact assessment report
capacity utilization production plans assessment
from 20% to 70%
Facilitate compliance to industry Compliance to industry standards report
standards
To increase the Establish a Facilitate feasibility study Feasibility study report
number of active processor for each
processors from 2 of the seven
Facilitate environmental impact Environmental impact assessment report
to 7 economic blocs
assessment
Facilitate compliance to industry Compliance to industry standards report
standards
Set up the avocado industries Number of active avocado processors
To increase the Establish a women Conduct survey and profile cottage Number of cottage avocado SMEs per
number of avocado and youth cottage industries cluster
cottages industries facility in each of
from 4 to 180 the 180 clusters Facilitate feasibility study Feasibility study report on avocado cottage
industries
Advertise for start-up competition Start-up competition report
Set up a start up financing facility Number of financing facilities identified
Set up an incubation and innovation Number of incubation and innovation
centres centres
Increase the range Finance product Profile current products Number of products profiled
of avocado products development
from 10 to 20
Facilitate feasibility study on product Feasibility study report on product
development development
 Set up a start up financing facility Number of financing facilities identified

Develop new product Number of new products developed

Facilitate awareness of new products Product awareness report

Profitability

Strategic Issue Strategic Objective Strategic Activity Output indicators

Intervention

Unstructured avocado To establish To Establish a Develop a data system that address Number of pricing model developed
pricing equitable pricing of pricing model that costing and pricing
avocados factors cost of
production, and
services along the
value chain

Pricing risk mitigation To minimize Implement Implement insurance business models Number of insurance business model
avocado enterprises insurance business implemented
risks models for avocado
value chain Number of farmers taking up the
insurance model

Facilitate formation of hubs Elect Leaders

Train the leaders and value chain Number of leaders trained

actors

Conduct mentorship program on Number of mentorship sessions

recording, financial management and conducted
production planning
 Train farmers on contract negotiation Number of farmers trained on contract
negotiation

Lack of business Plans Ensure business Promote business source for an expert on business plan Number of clusters trained on business
plans are developed planning plans

Over Reliance on limited To change advisory To establish TA Identify TAs, recruit and place them Number of TAs recruited and placed.
public advisory service service model concept under internship
providers

Low business Volumes Increase volumes Increase volumes Identify distribution channels, reduce Number of distribution channels
produced traded in both pos-harvest loss, and establish identified, number of hubs established,
domestic and operational hubs and link avocado number of value chain actors linked to
international value chain actors to financial financial institutions
institutions for loaning to boost their
business.
Annex II: The Vision Data
Parameters Current Actual Targets for Gap Analysis % Increase 2020 Current/ Vision 2030
2020 2030 budget Kshs investment/
budget Kshs

Global Avocado produced in kg 5,920,000,000 2,000,000,000 34%

annually 7,920,000, 236,800,000,0 316,800,000,000
000 00

Global Amount Marketed 5,624,000,000 2,000,000,000 36%

7,624,000, 224,960,000,0 304,960,000,00
000 00 0

Actual Avocado produced in 318,087,000 444,313,000 140% 30,496,000,000

Kenya 762,400,00 12,723,480,000
0

Actual Marketed in Kenya 287,868,735 436,411,265 152% 11,514,749,400 28,971,200,000

724,280,00
0

Actual Export 64,477,082 297,662,918 462% 10,832,149,776 60,839,520,000

362,140,00
0

Average kilograms of fruits 160 250 90 56% 3,200 5,000

produced per tree per year

Average Number of Trees per 50 81 31 62% 160,000 405,000

Acre

Number of trees in production 1,988,044 3,049,600 1,061,556 53% 7,708,553,738 11,824,692,227

Total number of acres in 39,761 77,410 37,649 95% 12,487,857,055 24,312,549,282

production

75
Parameters Current Actual Targets for Gap Analysis % Increase 2020 Current/ Vision 2030
2020 2030 budget Kshs investment/
budget Kshs

Total number of trees in 1,988,064 8,339,019 6,350,955 319% 7,708,553,738 11,824,692,227

production

Total acres on avocado trees 40,757 78,407 37,649 92% 12,487,857,055 24,312,549,282

Land under immature trees 997 1,993 997 100% 7,708,553,738 11,824,692,227

Average acreage per avocado 0 1 1 235% 93,695 314,074

farmer

Total acreage of small holder 32,606 62,725 30,120 92% 19,700,443,088

farmer (.25 acres) 10,240,689,306

Total acreage of medium scale 6,114 30,568 24,454 400% 1,920,129,245 9,600,646,225
farmer (1 acre)

Total acreage large scale farmer 2,038 10,000 7,962 391% 640,043,082 3,140,740,000
(24 acres)

Number of trees of small holder 1,630,299 32,617,251 30,986,952 1901%

farms

Number of trees of medium 305,681 11,921,560 11,615,879 3800%

scale farmers

Number of trees of large-scale 101,894 31,098,106 30520%

farmers 31,200,000

Total number of small holder 130,424 250,902 120,478 92% 23,343,125 217,284,000
farmer (.25 acres)

Total number medium scale 6,114 6,114 - 0%

farmer (1 acre)

76
Parameters Current Actual Targets for Gap Analysis % Increase 2020 Current/ Vision 2030
2020 2030 budget Kshs investment/
budget Kshs

Total number of large-scale 85 417 332 391%

farmer (24 acres)

Total number of avocado 136,622 257,432 120,810 88%

farmers

Average kilograms of Avocado 15,904,350 22,215,650 140% 636,174,000 1,524,800,000

consumed on farms 38,120,000

Average of Avocado sold 223,391,653 211,176,347 95% 8,935,666,120 17,382,720,000

informal traders 434,568,00
0

Average post-harvest loss 14,313,915 7,624,000 (6,689,915) -47% 572,556,600 304,960,000

Registered Marketing Agents 38

Total number of registered 156 156 - 0% 69,436,858 389,996,923

exporters

Number active exporters 94 156 62 66% 115,235,636 389,996,923

Exporters - - #DIV/0! - -

Number of clearing and

forwarding agent

Number of Distributors (local 120 233 113 94% 11,169,583 11,190,592

market)

Open markets 120 (120) -100%

Number of groceries (super 60 (60) -100%

market)

77
Parameters Current Actual Targets for Gap Analysis % Increase 2020 Current/ Vision 2030
2020 2030 budget Kshs investment/
budget Kshs

Per capita consumption 5 13 8 174% 190 520

What is the current population 47,000,000 18,000,000 38% 520

in <Location>? 65,000,000

Total number of households in 11,750,000 16,250,000 4,500,000 38%

the <Location> area?

Average size of household farms 4 4 - 0%

Land in the area suitable for 4,940,000 4,940,000 - 0%

avocado production?

Acreage under avocado 40,757 103,294 62,536 153%

Number of registered nurseries 264 528 237 90% 2,396,745 2,396,745

Number of certified nurseries

total number of seedlings 9,655,577

Total number of certified 5,272,840 10,006,823 4,733,983 90%

seedlings

Number of seedlings per 19,973 19,973 - 0% 898,780 898,780

nurseries

Number pruning/harvesting 1 180 179 17900% 5,000,000 900,000,000

machine

Harvesting machine and pole - 257,432 257,432 #DIV/0! 514,864,432

Number bulk coolers 47 180 133 283% 893,000,000 3,420,000,000

(TONS)/pack houses

78
Parameters Current Actual Targets for Gap Analysis % Increase 2020 Current/ Vision 2030
2020 2030 budget Kshs investment/
budget Kshs

Number of farm coolers - 257,432 257,432 #DIV/0! 28,000

Mobile coolers 100 180 80 80% 1,000,000,000 1,800,000,000

Number of Agro-dealers - 180 180 #DIV/0!

Number of avocado 4 180 176 4400% 900,000,000

cooperative/cluster/Farmer
association

Number of avocado processors 6 30 24 400% 583,682,148 2,918,410,740

Number of active avocado 2 30 28 1400% 2,918,410,740

processors

Number of cottage avocado 4 180 176 4400% 2,000,000 90,000,000

SMEs

Daily processing capacity per 10,788 15,000 4,212 39% 1,232,877 1,714,286
processor

Avocado processed in kg/ day 21,575 450,000 428,425 1986% 2,465,753 51,428,571

Number of Pest Free Areas - 30 30 #DIV/0! - 325,800,000

(PFAs)

Breeding Farm 1 7 6 600% 49,000,000

Mother Blocks 33 35 2 6% 10,364,442 10,992,590

Technical advisors 689 14,453 13,764 1998% - 7,242,800,000

Maturity testing kit 2 180 178 8900% 2,000,000 180,000,000

79
 Parameters Current Actual Targets for Gap Analysis % Increase 2020 Current/ Vision 2030
2020 2030 budget Kshs investment/
budget Kshs

Number of post-harvest 29 180 151 521% 580,000,000 3,600,000,000

treatment facilities (Export)

Number of avocado training - 7 7 #DIV/0! - 1,400,000,000

centres of excellence

Avocado demonstration farm - 900 #DIV/0! 141,333,300

Number of TVETS skilling - 30 - 4,129,224,171

Technical advisor/farmer

Grand Total 909,426,700,465

571,179,495,882

Annex III: Value Pre-Position to Investors

No.
Output indicators 2027 Investment
Employed
Number of Acres (idle land) suitable for
4,940,000 ?
long term leasing to grow avocado
Number of avocado farmers 257,432 ? 257,432

Number of trees of small holder farms 32,617,251 ? 250,902

Number of trees of medium scale farms 11,921,560 ? 6,114

Number of trees of large-scale farms 31,200,000 ? 417

Number of trees in production
8,339,019 11,824,692,227
(accumulative)
80
Number of Trees per Acre 81 405,000

Number of acres on avocado trees 78,407 24,312,549,282

Number of registered and certified
528 2,396,745
nurseries
Number of seedlings per nursery 19,973 898,780

Number of harvested fruits per tree in kgs 250 5,000

Number of mother blocks established 35 10,992,590

Number of breeding farms 7 49,000,000

Develop improved varieties 2 ?

Number regional Centre of excellence 6 1,400,000,000

Number of TVETS promoting avocado
30 4,129,224,171
skill training
Number of Technical Advisors recruited
14,453 7,242,800,000 14,453
and linked to farmers
Number of practical learning sites in
900 141,333,300 900
avocado growing clusters
Number of pruning equipment 180 900,000,000 180

Number of harvesting equipments 254,432 514,864,432

Number of clusters linked to at least 1
180 ? 180
registered agro dealer

81
Maturity testing kit 180 180,000,000 180
Number of real time avocado industry
1 ? 1
data capture information system
Number of avocado distributions centres 47 ?

Number of marketing hubs established 180 ?

Number of kilograms consumed on farms 38,120,000 1,524,800,000

Number of kilograms sold to informal
434,568,000 17,382,720,000
traders
Number of kilograms exported 362,140,000 60,839,520,000

Number of registered Exporters 156 389,996,923

Number of Marketing Agents 38 ?

Number of oil content testing kits 180 ? 180

Number of aggregation centers with post-
180 900,000,000
harvest handling facilities
Number of post-harvest treatment
180 3,600,000,000
facilities (Export)
Number of packhouses increased 180 3,420,000,000
Number of post-harvest treatment
180 3,420,000,000
facilities
Number of Pest Free Areas 30 325,800,000

82
Increase volume of processed avocado
450,000 51,428,571
per day
Number of active processors 7 680,962,506

Number of new avocado products 20 ?

Number of avocado cottage industries 180 90,000,000

Number of farmers making profits 257,432 ?

Number of avocado trees linked to a
1,988,064 ?
private technical advisor
Number of Harvesting machine and pole 257,432 514,864,432 257,432
Number of Distributors (local market)
233 11,190,592
established
Number of groceries (super market) 60 ?
Number of avocado training centres of
7 1,400,000,000
excellence
Number of branded products 20 ?

Totals
Number of staff at fresh avocado
? ?
transport bussines
Number of staff at new product transport ? ?
Number of staff participating in retailing
? ?
of new products
Number of staff at seedling nursery ? ?
83
Number of staff at Mother Blocks ? ?

Number of staff at breeding farm ? ?

Number of staff at improved varieties ? ?

Number of staff at post-harvest treatment
180 ?
facilities
Number of staff at post-harvest treatment
180 3,600,000,000
facilities (Export)
Number of regional Centre of excellence
6 ?
staff

Strengthening Clusters

Strengthening Clusters 2027 Investment No. Employed

Lease of idle land suitable for avocado 4,940,000 Farmer/Financier
Nursery
Purchase of scion materials ? ?
Operator/KEPHIS
Purchase of seedlings by farmers 10,006,823 450,307,035 Farmer
Purchase of materials for mother
35 10,992,590
blocks KALRO
Purchase of breeding farm materials 7 49,000,000 KALRO
Investment on water storage vessels
? ? Farmer/Financier
water pans per farmer
Purchase of pruning equipment 180 ? Farmer/Financier

84
Purchase of harvesting equipment 254,432 514,864,432 Farmer/Financier

Purchase of oil content kits 180

Processor
Setting up marketing hubs 180 Public Private
Partnership
Purchase of Maturity Kits 180 180,000,000 Public Private
Partnership
Setting up of pest-free areas 325,800,000 Public Private
30 Partnership
Setting up farmer learning centres 900 141,333,300 Public Private
Partnership
Setting up of aggregation /clusters
180 900,000,000 Public Private
centres Partnership
Setting up distribution centres 47 Public Private
Partnership
Setting up of post-harvest treatment
180 900,000,000 Public Private
facilities Partnership
Number of post-harvest treatment
180 3,600,000,000
facilities (Export) Exporters
Setting up of new processors 7
680,962,506 Processor
Setting of new cottage industries 180 90,000,000
Processor
Development of new avocado products 20 MOA/HCD
Setting up local market distribution
233 11,190,592 MOA/COUNTY GOVTS
channels
Farmer loan procurement ? Farmer/Financier
?

85
Value of fresh avocado transport
? Cluster
business ?
Value of farm inputs required ? Cluster
68,195

Value of farm seedlings required 10,560,000 475,200,000 Cluster

Value of avocado sold locally 434,568,000 17,382,720,000

Farmer
Value of transport from farms to
? Farmer
aggregation centres ?
Value of new products developed 20 ? MOA/HCD
Value of promotional campaigns Public Private
?
locally and international ? Partnership

86