Year

 10  Mathematics  
Semester  2  
Bivariate  Data  –  Chapter  13  
Why  learn  this?    
Observations   of   two   or   more   variables   are   often   recorded,   for   example,   the   heights   and  
weights   of   individuals.   Studying   the   data   allows   us   to   investigate   whether   there   is   any  
relationship  between  the  variables,  how  strong  the  relationship  is,  and  whether  one  variable  
can  be  effectively  predicted  from  information  about  another  variable.  Statistics  can  be  applied  
to   medical   research,   sport,   agriculture,   sustainability,   weather   forecasting   and   fashion   trends,  
to  name  but a  few  fields.  The  capacity  to  analyse  data  and  draw  conclusions  is  an  essential  
skill  in  a  world  where  information  is  readily  available  and  often  manipulated.    

Example:  An  ice  cream  shop  keeps  track  of  how  much  ice  cream  they  sell  versus  the  temperature  on  
that  day.  
The  two  variables  are  Ice  Cream  Sales  and  Temperature.  
Here  are  their  figures  for  the  last  12  days:  

Temperature  °C   24.2°   26.4°   21.9°   25.2°   28.5°   32.1°   29.4°   35.1°   33.4°   28.1°   32.6°   27.2°  
Ice  Cream  Sales   $215   $325   $185   $332   $406   $522   $412   $614   $544   $421   $445   $408  

And  here  is  the  same  data  as  a  Scatter  Plot:  

 

Now  we  can  easily  see  that  warmer  weather  and  more  ice  
cream  sales  are  linked,  but  the  relationship  is  not  perfect.  

Questions  
Section   Title   Questions  
13.2   Bivariate  Data   1d–g,  2,  3,  4,  5,  7,  9,  12    
13.3   Lines  of  best  fit   1,  2,  3,  4,  5,  6,  7,  8,  10,  11    
13.4   Time  Series   1,  2,  3,  4,  5,  6,  7,  9,  10    
 

More  resources  
http://drweiser.weebly.com  

   

Page  1  of  14  

 TABLE  OF  CONTENTS  
 
Why  learn  this?   1  
Questions   1  
More  resources   1  

13.2  –  BIVARIATE  DATA   3  

Scatterplots   3  
Dependent  and  independent  variables     3  
Example  1   3  
Correlation   4  
Worked  Example  2   4  
Correlation  and  causation   4  
Worked  Example  3   5  

13.3  LINES  OF  BEST  FIT   6  

Lines  of  best  fit  by  eye   6  
Worked  Example  4   6  
Making  predictions   7  
Worked  Example  5   8  
Worked  Example  6   8  
Interpolation  and  extrapolation   9  
Reliability  of  predictions     10  
Correlation  coefficient   10  

13.4  TIME  SERIES   11  

Types  of  trends     11  
Worked  Example  9   12  
Trend  lines   12  
Worked  Example  10   12  
Worked  Example  11   13  

SUMMARY  —  TOPIC  13:  BIVARIATE  DATA   14  

Bivariate  data   14  
Lines  of  best  fit   14  
Time  series   14  
 
 

   

Page  2  of  14  

13.2  –  Bivariate  Data  
•   Bivariate  data  are  data  with  two  variables.    
•   The  list  of  bivariate  data  can  be  considered  as  numerical  pairs  of  the  type:    
(x1,  y1),  (x2,  y2),  ...  ,  (xn,  yn)  
•   Bivariate  data  are  usually  represented  graphically  on  scatterplots.    
Scatterplots  
•   A  scatterplot  is  a  graph  that  shows  whether  there  is  a  relationship  between  two  variables.    
•   Each  data  value  on  a  scatterplot  is  shown  by  a  point  on  a  Cartesian  plane.    
Dependent  and  independent  variables    
•   One  variable  is  generally  the  dependent  variable,  and  the  other  the  independent  variable.    
•   The   dependent   variable,   as   the   name   suggests,   is   the   one   whose   value   depends   on   the   other  
variable.  The  independent  variable  takes  on  values  that  do  not  depend  on  the  value  of  the  other  
variable.    
•   When  data  are  expressed  in  the  form  of  a  table,  generally  the  independent  variable  is  written  in  
the  first  row  or  the  first  column.    
•   The  independent  variable  is  placed  on  the  x-­‐axis  and  the  dependent  variable  on  the  y-­‐axis.    
 
Examples:   A  child’s  height  might  depend  on  their  age  
    A  person’s  salary  might  depend  on  their  age  
    A  car’s  value  might  depend  on  its  age  or  distance  travelled    
 
Example  1  
The  operators  of  a  casino  keep  records  of  the  number  of  people  playing  a  ‘Jackpot’  type  game.  The  
table  below  shows  the  number  of  players  for  different  prize  amounts.  
Draw  a  scatter  plot  of  the  data  (no  calculator)  
Number  of  Players   260   280   285   340   390   428   490  
Prize  ($)   1000   1500   2000   2500   3000   3500   4000  
 
Think  
1.   Determine  which  is  the  dependent  variable  
and  which  is  the  independent  variable.    
2.   Rule  up  a  set  of  axes.  Label  the  title  of  the  
graph.  Label  the  horizontal  axis  ‘Number  of  
tickets  sold’  and  the  vertical  axis  ‘Total  
revenue  ($)’.    
3.   Use  an  appropriate  scale  on  the  horizontal  
and  vertical  axes.    
4.   Plot  the  points  on  the  scatterplot.    
 
   

Page  3  of  14  

Correlation    
•   Correlation  is  a  descriptive  measure  of  the  relationship  between  two  variables.    
•   Correlation  describes  the  strength,  the  direction  and  the  form  of  the  relationship   between  the  
two  variables.    
•   The  closer  the  points  are  to  a  straight  line  form,  the  stronger  the  correlation  between  the   two  
variables.  The  strength  is  described  as  weak,  moderate  or  strong.    
•   If  the  points  on  a  scatterplot  have  a  generally  positive  slope,  the  relationship  has  a   positive  
direction.  If  the  slope  is  negative,  the  direction  is  negative.    
 

 
 
Worked  Example  2  
State  the  type  of  correlation  between  the  variables  y  x  and  y,  shown  on  
the  scatterplot.    

 
 
 
 
 
Correlation  and  causation    
Even  a  strong  correlation  does  not  necessarily  mean  that  the  increase  or  decrease  in  the  level  of  one  
variable  causes  an  increase  or  decrease  in  the  level  of  the  other.  It  is  best  to  avoid  statements  such  
as: ‘An  increase  in  rainfall  causes  an  increase  in  the  wheat  growth.’    

The  following  guidelines  should  be  closely  followed  in  order  to  draw  a  conclusion  about  the  
relationship  between  the  two  variables  based  on  the  scatterplot.    

•   If  the  correlation  between  x  and  y  is  weak,  we  can  conclude  that  there  is  little  evidence  to  show  
that  the  larger  x  is,  the  larger  (positive  correlation)  or  smaller  (negative  correlation)  y  is.    
•   If   the   correlation   between   x   and   y   is   moderate,   we   can   conclude   that   there   is   evidence   to   show  
that  the  larger  x  is,  the  larger  (positive  correlation)  or  smaller  (negative  correlation)  y  is.    
•   If   the   correlation   between   x   and   y   is   strong,   we   can   conclude   that   the   larger   x   is,   the   larger  
(positive  correlation)  or  smaller  (negative  correlation)  y  is.    
   

Page  4  of  14  

Worked  Example  3  
Mary  sells  business  shirts  in  a  department  store.  She  always  records  the  number  of  different  styles  of  
shirt  sold  during  the  day.  The  table  below  shows  her  sales  over  one  week.    
Price  ($)     14   18   20   21   24   25   28   30   32   35  
Number  of  shirts  sold     21   22   18   19   17   17   15   16   14   11  
 
a)   Construct  a  scatterplot  of  the  data.   In  a  new  
document,  on  a  Lists  &  Spreadsheet  page,  label  
column  A  as ‘price’  and  label  column  B  as  
‘sold’. Enter  the  data  as  shown  in  the  table.    
 

 
Open a Data & Statistics page.
Press TAB e  to  locate the label of the horizontal axis
and select the variable ‘price’.
Press TAB e  again to locate the label of the vertical
axis and select the variable ‘sold’.
 

 
To  change  the  colour  of  the  scatterplot,  place  the  
pointer  over  one  of  the  data  points.    
Then  press  DOC  ~.  Press:  
•  2:  Edit  2
•  7:  Colour  7.
•  2:  Fill  Colour  2.
Select  a  colour  from  the  palette  for  the  scatterplot.  
Press  ENTER  · .  
 
 
 
b)   State  the  type  of  correlation  between  the  two  variables  and,  hence,  draw  a  corresponding   conclusion.    
The  points  on  the  plot  form  a  path  that  resembles a  straight,  narrow  band,  directed  from  the  top  left  corner  to  
the   bottom   right   corner.   The   points   are   close   to   forming   a   straight   line.   There   is   a   strong,   negative,   linear  
correlation  between  the  two  variables.  
The  price  of  the  shirt  appears  to  affect  the  number  sold;  that  is,  the  more  expensive  the  shirt  the  fewer  sold.    

Page  5  of  14  

13.3  Lines  of  Best  Fit    
•   If  the  points  on  a  scatterplot  appear  to  lie  fairly  closely  distributed  in  a  linear  pattern,  a  straight  line  
can  be  drawn  through  the  data.  The  line  can  then  be  used  to  make  predictions  about  the  data.    
•   A  line   of   best   fit  is  a  line  on  a  scatterplot  that  is  positioned  so  that  it  is  as  close  as  possible  to  all  the  
data  points.   A  line  of  best  fit  is  used  to  generalise  the  relationship  between  two  variables.    
Lines  of  best  fit  by  eye    
•   A  line  of  best  fit  can  be  drawn  on  a  scatterplot  by   eye.  This  means  that  a  line  is  positioned  so  that  
there  is  an  equal  number  of  points  above  and  below  the  line.    
•   Once   a   line   of   best   fit   has   been   placed   on   the   scatterplot,   an   equation   for   this   line   can   be  
established,  using  the  coordinates  of  any  two  points  on  the  line.    
•   The   equation   for   the   line   passing   through   the   two   selected   points   can   then   be   calculated.   The  
equation  through  the  two  points   𝑥" , 𝑦"  𝑎𝑛𝑑   𝑥) , 𝑦)  is  given  by:    
𝑦) − 𝑦"
𝑦 = 𝑚𝑥 + 𝑐, 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒  𝑚 =  
𝑥) − 𝑥"
The  process  of  fitting  a  line  to  a  set  of  points  is  often  referred  to  as  regression.  The  regression  line  or  
trend  line  (also  known  as  the  line  of  best  fit)  may  be  placed  on  a  scatterplot  by  eye  or  by  using  the  CAS  
Worked  Example  4  
The  data  in  the  table  show  the  cost  of  using  the  internet  at  a  number  of  different  internet  cafes  based  
on  hours  used  per  month.    
Hours  used  per  month     10     12     20     18     10     13     15     17     14     11    
Total  monthly  cost  ($)     15     18     30     32     18     20     22     23     22     18    

a)   Construct  a  scatterplot  of  the  data.    

In  a  new  document,  on  a  Lists  &  Spreadsheet  page,  
label  column  A  as ‘hours’  and  label  column  B  as  
‘cost’. Enter  the  data  as  shown  in  the  table.    
 

 
Open a Data & Statistics page.
Press TAB e  to  locate the label of the horizontal axis
and select the variable ‘price’.
Press TAB e  again to locate the label of the vertical
axis and select the variable ‘sold’.
 

 
Page  6  of  14  
b)   Draw  in  the  line  of  best  fit  by  eye.    

 
c)   Find  the  equation  of  the  line  of  best  fit  in  terms  of  the  variables  n  (number  of  hours)  and  C  
(monthly  cost).    

 
 
 
Alternatively  on  the  CAS  
Press menu b    
4:  Analyze    
6:  Regression  
1: Show linear (mx+b)
The equation in terms of y=mx+b will be shown on the
graph.
 

 
 

 
 
Making  predictions    
The  line  of  best  fit  can  be  used  to  predict  the  value  of  one  variable  from  that  of  another.  Because  of  
the   subjective   nature   of   the   line,   it   should   be   noted   that   predictions   are   not   accurate   values,   but  
rough   estimates.   Although   this   is   the   case,   predictions   using   this   method   are   considered   valuable  
when  no  other  methods  are  available.    
If   the   equation   of   the   line   of   best   fit   is   known,   or   can   be   derived,   predictions   can   be   made   by  
substituting  known  values  into  the  equation  of  the  line  of  best  fit.    
   

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Worked  Example  5  
Use  the  given  scatterplot  and  line  of  best  fit  to  
predict:    

a)   The  value  of  y  when  x=10  

b)   The  value  of  x  when  y=10.    

 
 
 
 
 
Worked  Example  6  
The  table  below  shows  the  number  of  boxes  of  tissues  purchased  by  hayfever  sufferers  and  the  
number  of  days  affected  by  hayfever  during  the  blooming  season  in  spring.    

Number  of  days  affected  by  hayfever  (d)     3   12   14   7   9   5   6   4   10   8  

Total  number  of  boxes  of  tissues  (T  )     1   4   5   2   3   2   2   2   3   3  
 
a)   Construct  a  scatterplot  of  the  data  and  draw  a  
line  of  best  fit.    
b)   Determine  the  equation  of  the  line  of  best  fit.  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
c)   Interpret  the  meaning  of  the  gradient.    
 
 
 
 
d)   Use  the  equation  of  the  line  of  best  fit  to  predict  the  number  of  boxes  of  tissues  purchased  by  
people  suffering  from  hayfever  over  a  period  of:    
i.   11  days   ii. 15  days.    
 
 
   

Page  8  of  14  

Alternatively  on  the  CAS  
In  a  new  document,  on  a  Lists  &  
Spreadsheet  page,  label  column  A  
as ‘days’  and  label  column  B  as  
‘tissues’. Enter  the  data  as  
shown  in  the  table.    
Press menu b    
4:  Statistics  1:  Stat  Calculations  
3:  Linear  Regression  (mx+b)  
Enter X: days Y: tissues, then OK  

 
The equation and values of m and
b (c) are shown.

Add a new calculator page and

Type f1(11) enter
Type f1(15) enter
To  get  the  value  of  tissues  for  11  
and  15  days.  
 
 

Interpolation  and  extrapolation    

•   Interpolation   is   the   term   used   for   predicting   a   value   of   a   variable   from   within   the   range   of   the  
given  data.    
•   Extrapolation   occurs   when   the   value   of  
the  variable  being  predicted  is  outside  the  
range  of  the  given  data.    
•   In   Worked   example   6,   the   number   of  
days ranged   from   3   days   to   14   days.  
Making   a prediction   for   11   days   is   an  
example  of  interpolation,  whereas  making  
a   prediction   for   15   days   is   an   example  
of extrapolation.    
•   Predictions   involving   interpolation   are  
considered   to   be   quite   reliable.   Those  
involving   extrapolation   should   be   treated  
with  caution,  as  they  rely  on  the  trend  of  
the  line  remaining  unchanged  beyond  the  
range  of  the  data.    
   

Page  9  of  14  

Reliability  of  predictions    
•   When  predictions  of  any  type  are  made,  it  is  useful  to  know  whether  they  are  reliable  or  not.    
•   If  the  line  of  best  fit  is  used  to  make  predictions,  they  can  be  considered  to  be  reliable  if  each  of  
the  following  is  observed.  
o   The  number  of  data  values  is  large.  
o   The  scatterplot  indicates  reasonably  strong  correlation  between  the  variables.    

o   The  predictions  are  made  using  interpolation.    

Correlation  coefficient    
Once  a  relationship  between  two  variables  has  been  established,  it  is  helpful  to  develop  a  quantitative  
value  to  measure  the  strength  of  the  relationship.  One  way  is  to  calculate  a  correlation  coefficient,  r.  
This  is  easily  done  using  a  CAS  calculator,  but  a  manual  method  is  shown  below.    
The  formula  for  the  Correlation  coefficient  r  is:  
𝑥−𝑥 𝑦−𝑦
𝑟=  
𝑥−𝑥 ) 𝑦−𝑦 )

where    𝑥  and  𝑦  are  the  two  sets  of  scores  

  𝑥  and  𝑦  are  the  means  of  those  scores  
  the  symbol    represents  the  sum  of  the  expressions  indicated.  
 
The  correlation  coefficient  is  a  value  in  the  range  −1  to  +1.  The  value  of  −1  indicates  a  perfect  negative  
relationship   between   the   two   variables,   while   the   value   of   +1   indicates   a   perfect   positive  
relationship.  For  values  within  this  range,  a  variety  of  descriptors  are  used.    

   

Page  10  of  14  

13.4  Time  series    
•   Time  series  data  are  any  data  that  have  time  as  the  independent  variable.    
•   The  data  are  graphed  and  the  graphs  are  used  to  determine  if  a  trend  is  present   in  the  data.    
•   Identifying  a  trend  can  help  when  making  predictions  about  the  future.    
Types  of  trends    
•   A  general  upward  or  downward  trend  is  a  graph   •   A  seasonal  pattern  displays  fluctuations  that  
that  overall  goes  up  or  down  as  illustrated  in  the   repeat  at  the  same  time  each  week,  month  or  
graph  shown  below.     quarter  and  usually  last  less  than  one  year.  The  
graph  below  illustrates  that  the  peak  selling  time  
for  houses  is  in  the  spring.  

   
•  A   cyclical   pattern   displays   fluctuations   that   repeat   •  Random   patterns   do   not   show   any   regular  
but   will   usually   take   longer   than a   year   to   repeat.   fluctuation.   They   are   usually   caused   by  
An   example   of   this   is   shown   in   the   graph   below,   unpredictable   events   such   as   the   economic  
which  depicts  software  products  sold.   recession  illustrated  in  the graph  below.  

 
 

•  Trends  can  work  in  combinations;  for  example,  you  

can  have  a  seasonal  pattern  with  an  upward  
 

 
   

Page  11  of  14  

Worked  Example  9  
The  data  below  show  the  average  daily  mass  of  a  person  (to  the  nearest  100  g),  recorded  over  a  
period  of  4  weeks.    

63.6,  63.8,  63.5,  63.7,  63.2,  63.0,  62.8,  63.3,  63.1,  62.7,  62.6,  62.5,  62.9,  63.0,    

63.1,  62.9,  62.6,  62.8,  63.0,  62.6,  62.5,  62.1,  61.8,  62.2,  62.0,  61.7,  61.5,  61.2    

a)   Plot  these  masses  as  a  time  series  graph.    

b)   Comment  on  the  trend.    

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Trend  lines    
•   A  trend  line  is  a  type  of  line  of  best  fit.  Trend  lines  indicate  the  general  trend  of  the  data.  
•   Trend  lines  are  useful  in  forecasting,  or  making  predictions  about  the  future,  by  extrapolation.  
Extrapolation  can  have  limited  reliability,  as  predictions  are  based  on  the  assumption  that  the  
current  trend  will  continue  into  the  future.    
 
Worked  Example  10  
The  graph  at  shows  the  average  cost  of  
renting  a  one-­‐bedroom  flat,  as  recorded  over  
a  10-­‐year  period.    

a)  If  appropriate,  draw  in  a  line  of  best  fit  and  

comment  on  the  type  of  the  trend.    

b)  Assuming  that  the  current  trend  

will continue,  use  the  line  of  best  fit  to  
predict  the  cost  of  rent  in  5  years’  time.    

 
 
 

Page  12  of  14  

Worked  Example  11  
Data  were  recorded  about  the  number  of  families  who  moved  from  Sydney  to  Newcastle  over  the  
past  10  years.  

 
a)   Use  technology  to  construct  a  time  series  graph,  with  a  line  of  best  fit,  that  represents  the  data.    
•   In a new problem on a Lists & Spreadsheet page
•   label column A as ‘year’
•   label column B as ‘numbermoved’.
•   Enter the data as in the table above.
 

 
•   Open  a  Data  &  Statistics  page.    
•   Press  TAB e  to locate the label of the horizontal axis
and select the variable ‘year’.
•   Press TAB e  again to locate the label of the vertical
axis and select the variable ‘numbermoved’.

 
•   Press: MENUb
•   4: Analyze 4
•   2: Add Moveable Line 2
A line and its equation appear automatically on the graph as shown.
Repositioning the line is done in two steps by moving the position of
the y-intercept and altering the gradient. To change the y-intercept,
move the pointer until it rests somewhere around the middle of the
line. Press the Click key a, then use the Touchpad to move the line
parallel to itself until the y-intercept is in an appropriate position. To
change the gradient, move the pointer until it rests somewhere near
one end of the line. Press the Click key a, then use the Touchpad to
rotate the line and change the gradient. Continue to use these tools  
until you are satisfied with the line of best fit by eye.

b)   Describe  the  trend:   There  appears  to  be  an  upward  trend  over  the  10  years.    
c)   Measure  the  correlation.    
Back on the Spreadsheet page
Press: MENUb  
• 4: Statistics 4
• 1: Stat Calculations 1
• 3: Linear Regression (mx + b) 3.
Select ‘year’ as the X List and ‘numbermoved’ as the Y List, leave
the next fields blank, TAB e  to OK, then press ENTER ·.  

Page  13  of  14  

d)   Comment  on  the  results.    
Over  the  last  10  years,  an  increasing  number  of  families  have  
decided  to  make  the  move  from  Sydney  to  Newcastle.  The  
correlation  is  strong  and  positive  (0.8761),  making  it  possible  
to  predict  that  this  trend  is  likely  to  continue.    

Summary  —  Topic  13:  Bivariate  data  

Bivariate  data  
•   Bivariate  data  involve  two  sets  of  related  variables  for  each  piece  of  data.  
•   Bivariate  data  are  best  represented  on  a  scatterplot.  On  a  scatterplot  each  piece  of  data  is  shown  by  a  single  
point  whose  x-­‐coordinate  is  the  value  of  the  independent  variable,  and  whose  y-­‐coordinate  is  the  value  of  the  
dependent  variable.  
•   The  relationship  between  two  variables  is  called  correlation.  Correlation  can  be  classified  as  linear  or  non-­‐linear;  
positive  or  negative;  and  weak,  moderate  or  strong.  
•   If  the  points  appear  to  be  scattered  about  the  scatterplot  in  no  particular  order,  then  no  correlation  between  
the  two  variables  exists.  If  the  points  form  a  straight  line,  then  the  relationship  between  the  variables  is  
perfectly  linear.  
•   When  drawing  conclusions  based  on  the  scatterplot,  it  is  important  to  distinguish  between  the  correlation  and  
the  cause.  Strong  correlation  between  the  variables  does  not  necessarily  mean  that  an  increase  in  one  variable  
causes  an  increase  or  decrease  in  the  other.  
Lines  of  best  fit  
•   If  the  scatterplot  indicates  a  linear  relationship  between  two  variables,  the  linear  model  of  the  relationship  can  
be  established  as  follows:  
o   position  a  line  of  best  fit  on  the  scatterplot  
o   select  any  two  points  on  the  line  and  determine  the  equation  of  the  line.  The  equation  of  the  line  
passing  through  two  points   ( x1 , y1 )  and   ( x2 , y2 )  is  given  by:  
y2 − y1
y = mx + b  where   m =  
x2 − x1
•   The  line  of  best  fit  can  be  used  for  predicting  the  value  of  one  variable  when  given  the  value  of  the  other.  This  
can  be  done  graphically  or,  if  the  equation  of  the  line  is  known,  algebraically  (by  substituting  known  values  into  
the  equation  of  the  line  of  best  fit).  
•   When  the  value  that  is  being  predicted  using  the  line  of  best  fit  is  within  the  given  range,  the  process  is  called  
interpolation.  When  the  value  that  is  being  predicted  using  the  line  of  best  fit  is  outside  the  given  range,  the  
process  is  called  extrapolation.  
•   Only  predictions  made  using  interpolation  can  be  considered  reliable.  
•   Least  squares  regression  involves  a  mathematical  approach  to  fitting  a  line  of  best  fit  to  bivariate  data  that  show  
a  strong  linear  correlation.  It  takes  error  lines,  forms  squares,  and  minimises  the  sum  of  the  squares.  A  calculator  
is  best  used  for  the  calculations.  
•   The  correlation  coefficient  r  is  a  quantitative  measure  of  the  correlation  between  two  variables.  The  value  of  r  
lies  in  the  range  −1  to  +1.  The  closer  the  value  of  r  lies  to  zero,  the  weaker  the  correlation  between  the  two  
variables.  
Time  series  
•   Time  series  graphs  are  line  graphs  with  the  time  plotted  on  the  horizontal  axis.  
•   Time  series  are  used  for  analysing  general  trends  and  for  making  predictions  for  the  future.  
•   Predictions  involving  time  series  graphs  are  always  based  on  the  assumption  that  the  current  trend  will  continue  
in  the  future.  
 
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