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Actuary Sense

Top 10 General Insurance


Actuarial Interview Topics
Created
by
Kamal
Sardana
1. Bayesian Statistics
What is Bayesian Statistics: (I will try to explain in easy terms)
Often researchers investigating an unknown population parameter have
information available from other sources in advance of the study that
provides a strong indication of what values the parameter is likely to take.
This additional information might be in a form that cannot be incorporated
directly in the current study. The classical statistical approach offers no
scope for the researchers to take this additional information into account.
However, the Bayesian statistics is the approach which allows to take this
additional information into account while estimating a population
parameter.
Let me explain you with the help of an example:
4 championship races had been done between Mr. A and Mr. B. Out of
which A has won 3 races and B has won 1 race. SO, on whom are you
going to bet your money in the next race?
You will Say Mr. A because P(A) = 0.75 and P(B) = 0.25
So your initial estimate about B is P(B) = 0.25
Now I will give you additional information say, there was a rain when Mr.
B won and there was rain once when Mr. A won. And in the next match
there will definitely be a rain.
So now I ask you again on whom will you bet your money?
Let’s decode the answer:
1. P(R) = 0.50 (Because rain happened twice out of 4 matches)
2. P(R|B) = 1 (Because whenever Mr. B won there was a rain)
So I want to find out that what is probability that in the next race Mr. B
will won if it is given that there will be a rain:
P(B|R) = P(R|B)*P(B)/P(R) = 0.50
I hope you know how this formula comes up otherwise you can mention
me in comments I will tell you how.
Conclusion: Initially we comes up with an answer that P(B) = 0.25 which
is my prior estimate and then I give additional information about rain
which we incorporated in the form of conditional probability i.e. P(R|B) =
1 and then ultimately we find P(B|R) which is my posterior probability.
So you see how with the help of Bayesian statistics I incorporated
additional information into my current study and how my value changes
from 0.25 to 0.50.

Statistics seems easy now. 😊


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2. Pricing of General Insurance
So, for a Bayesian Statistics to reach in Insurance industry for actuaries, it
has to gone through to Credibility Theory concept which is also based on
Bayesian Statistics. So, let’s See what is credibility theory?
Suppose a local authority in a city wants to insure its 12 buses for the
coming year claims arising from accident involving these buses. Data of
past 4 years show that average cost of claim per annum for a bus is $1500
(this is your own data).
So let me give additional information too: We have data relating to a large
number of buses from all over the country say US and the amount is $2500
(this is outside/collateral data).
I am assuming as of now that we don’t take loading into consideration for
calculating premium.
So now, there will be extreme cases of Premium:
Case-1: As an insurer I will charge $1500 because this estimate is based
on the most appropriate data
Case-2: As an insurer I will charge $2500 because this estimate is based
on most data.
Then there comes a credibility theory which says that you can take the
weighted average of both of them.
Premium = Z*1500 + (1-Z)-2500 here “Z” is the credibility factor.
The larger the value of Z is, the larger you are putting interest in your own
Data.
Seems easy, I guess. Let’s see now its role in insurance:
Example-1: Suppose as an insurer i want to insured the damage caused by
falling Satellite dishes (Tata Sky, DTH etc.) but I don’t have enough data
available with me to judge my premium accurately. Then what I will do is
to find the appropriate collateral data (i.e. Outside Data) say TV Aerials
(Dish Antennas etc.). So, you can see here that to refine my estimate I can
use the outside information to refine my estimate using my own data too.
What I will be doing here is to calculate premiums using both the
information but the weightage I will give more to Collateral data my own
data is very less/scarce as of now.
So as the company sold more of new policies, the pattern for satellite
dishes become clearer and insurer could put more emphasis on direct data
and our Z value will keeps on increasing.

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3. Basics of Run Off Triangle
Run off is used to forecast future claim amounts and numbers. There are
various methods for projecting run offs i.e. Basic Chain Ladder, Inflation
adjusted, BF, Average Cost per claim method.
Where it may take some time after a loss until the full extent of claims to
be paid is known, in that cases run offs will be used also known as delay
triangles
Let's say there comes a motor claim, and we paid 500, 1500 to be O/s
taken in next year, then in reported claims it will come and we project it
in IBNR, so IBNR takes into consideration Development of those claims
Claims can be grouped in various ways such as on the basis of accident
year, underwriting year, Reporting year etc. But generally, we use
accident year
Accident date is important for determining appropriate row of the
triangle and reporting date is necessary for determining when the info
about the claim first enters into triangle
Obviously the insurance co. does not know the total claims for each year,
it try to estimate that figure with as much confidence and accuracy as
possible.
GI has to find the ultimate cost of claims for several purposes such as: for
determining full cost of paying claims in order to set future premium
rates. They need to set up reserves in order to make sure they have
enough assets to cover their liabilities
Ultimate Claims = IBNR + Case Outstanding + paid. It is total liability. This
is the ultimate cost to the company
Ultimate claims=Actual Reported claims + Expected Unreported claims
Claim event occur: Claim reported: Payment made: File closed.
Reserve is made for every stage.
Stage1: IBNR
Stage 2: Case Outstanding
Stage 3: Some insurers make Reserves for claim file closed too soon
Now basically there are two types of reserves: IBNR which is done by
actuaries and other is "Case Outstanding" which is done by claims
professionals. Let's see the example: I am insurer and now insured called
me they met with an accident and wants to claim. Now our person will go
there and find out that there will 1000$ payment. So now that 1000$ will
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be case outstanding. Suppose he pay 500$ upfront and keep reserves for
500$ then paid amount =500$ and case outstanding = 500$. Reported
claims = paid claims + case outstanding =500+500=1000$. Now what
about IBNR?
IBNR is based on the retrospective approach that is past data, it will look
at the reported claims and then project accordingly. It has nothing to do
with individual claims, it will look at aggregate number of claims and
amount paid.

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4. Reserving of General Insurance
Loss Development Triangle
12 24 36
2016 100 120 150
2017 120 160
2018 140

Now I am going to write my Loss ratios assumptions and earned premium


data

Accident Loss Earned Projected Ultimate


Year Ratios Premium Amount
2016 75% 200 150
2017 75% 250 187.5
2018 80% 270 216

Projected Ultimate Amount = Loss Ratio * Earned Premium. So you can


see that to calculate my projected ultimate claim data, I have not used data
mentioned in original loss development triangle.

Now the journey Begins for Bornhuetter Ferguson Method. I am assuming


that you all have done Bornhuetter-Ferguson method. I am here to tell you
what those things represent actually.
Reported Claims
Amount
12 24 36 48 60 72 84
2002 12811 20,370 26,656 37,667 44,414 48,701 48,169
2003 9651 16,995 30,354 40,594 44,231 44,373
2004 16995 40,180 58,866 71,707 70,288
2005 28674 47,432 70,340 70,655
2006 27066 46,783 48,804
19, 31,7
2007 477 32
18,
2008 632

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dev
fac 1.774 1.368 1.184 1.059 1.049 1.006 1
f-
cumu
fac 3.220 1.8149 1.3264 1.1195 1.056 1.006 1
AY 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
F 3.220 1.814 1.326 1.119 1.05 1.006 1
31.05 55.10 100.00
75.39% 89.32% 94.66% 99.39%
1/f % % %
68.95 44.90
24.61% 10.68% 5.34% 0.61% 0.00%
1-1/f % %
Initial
UL 38237 43706 69925 82890 71511 44963 48169
EL 26365 19625 17208 8852 3818 274 0
RL 18,632 31,732 48,804 70,655 70,288 44,373 49,000
UL 44,997 51,357 66,012 79,507 74,107 44,647 49,000

Okay so lets see over here:


so here your f represents cumulative development factor. As you can
see for most recent accident years it is very high (3.2206 for 2008) because
it will be multiplied by the reported claim mentioned in cohort to reach at
ultimate claim cost.

1/f here basically your Z. That I mentioned in second article. So as I


told you at that time that your Z represents that how much trust do you
have in your own data. So for most mature years say 2002 or 2003, Z
should be high. Lets see then
1/f for 2002 = 100% ( because if you see the triangle then its fully
run off so we have used all our own data)
1/f for 2004 = 94.66% ( so as long as we reaches our most recent
data our trust is keep on losing on our data and we are looking for
something else)

So what that else is?


is.
is.

is your Loss Ratios. Which is going to act as Collateral data that I


am going to use for projection.

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Please note that 1/f represents how much claim has developed till
now. That’s why for year 2002 its 100% because it has developed fully.

So 1-1/f represents how much is your claim going to develop in


future which is dependent on Collateral data i.e. Loss ratios.

Earned Premium
2002 61,183
2003 69,175
2004 99,322
2005 1,38,151
2006 1,07,578
2007 62,438
2008 47,797
Loss Ratios
2002 78.73%
2003 65.00%
2004 72.00%
2005 60.00%
2006 65.00%
2007 70.00%
2008 80.00%

So when you multiply your loss ratio with your Earned Premium
then you get your initial Ultimate claims.
So when you multiply your initial ultimate claims with your
remaining percentage that is yet to be developed ( i.e. 1-1/f) you will get
your emerging liability( which is yet to be developed). I mentioned
emerging liability as EL.

Now we have RL i.e. reported liability ( claims of every accident


year of latest development year).

So you ultimate Claim amount is RL + EL.

So you can see that We use both data to refine our estimate that I
mentioned in my first article.

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That is the role of Bayesian statistics that how you can refine your
estimate by using information from outside source(which is loss ratio over
here).

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5. Motor Insurance
Motor Insurance or Vehicle Insurance:
Motor insurance is an insurance policy that protects the owner of the
vehicle against any financial loss arising out of damage or theft of vehicle.

Motor vehicle coverage also includes damage caused to third party or


property.
Motor Insurance is mandatory in India.
Motor Insurance is available for both cars and two wheelers.

Now the premium will be lower for two-wheeler as compared to Car


wheeler, as we know the more the sum insured, the more will be the
premium, keeping all things constant.

Generally, there are two types of Vehicle Insurance:

1.) Third-Party Car Insurance

2.) Comprehensive Car Insurance

Third Party Car Insurance:


1. Provides coverage against any legal liability arising out of injuries to a
third party when the policyholder is at fault.

2. Third party cover does not pay for repair of damage to your car or if
you suffer any car-related injuries.

3. It is mandatory for every motor vehicle owner to buy at least third-


party insurance coverage in India.

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Comprehensive Car Insurance:
1. This plan is called a comprehensive plan because it provides coverage
for the damages to your car, third-party legal liability, theft, along with
the personal accident coverage.

2. A comprehensive car insurance plan includes coverage for fire, theft,


natural and man-made catastrophes, such as a tornado, hurricane
vandalism, damage caused to your vehicle by animals, falling objects, civil
disturbance, such as a riot that causes damages to your car.

Exclusions:
1. Damages caused by a driver driving without a valid driving license.

2. Damages caused due to driving under the influence of intoxicants.

3. Any loss or damage due to mutiny war, or a nuclear attack

Which one is better: Third Party cover and Comprehensive


cover:
1. It depends upon the value of car. If the value of my vehicle is low
than it is better to buy third party insurance because damages that
happen to my vehicle can be managed easily and it is economical to pay
repair bills rather than paying high premium in case of comprehensive
insurance.

On the other hand, if my vehicle is expensive and new, then its better to
buy comprehensive plan as it is better to be safe than sorry

2. If I am seeking for the coverage of my vehicle too and some other add
ons too than it’s better to buy comprehensive plan as third-party
insurance only covers liability against other party. But the key factor here
is the fact that premium is more in comprehensive as compared to Third
party insurance.

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Add-ons with Car Insurance
One can extend the coverage for car insurance by opting for add-ons.
These add-ons will increase the financial coverage but additional
premium amount will be added to the base premium amount. Some of
popular add-ons available with car insurance are:

Zero Depreciation: There is certain value to part of the vehicle. When a


claim is made, depreciation is calculated on these parts and the amount is
paid accordingly. By opting for zero depreciation cover, the entire
amount of the part is paid as a part of claim.

Engine and Gear Box Protection: In case damaged is caused to engine


parts or gear box of the vehicle due to water ingression, leakage of
lubricating oil etc, the costs for repair and replacement will be covered.

What are the factors that affect my premium?


1. The location where i live. If I live in an area where traffic is low, you
will have lower premium rates for example in a city like Kaithal (Haryana).
But premium will be higher in big and, metro cities like Gurgaon
(Haryana).

2. Policyholder age also impact premium. People under the age of 25


years need to pay highest premium and person between the age of 50
years to 65 years are required to pay the least.

3. If your car runs on diesel than you have to pay higher premium as
compared to another engine.

4. Comprehensive car insurance is costlier than third party cover, so


premium is more in this case.

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6. Excess v/s Deductibles
Basically, excess and deductible are somehow the same thing. The main
motive behind both of these is to safeguard the insurance company from
frequent or frivolous claims.
People after purchasing the insurance policy become careless because
they know that in case of any incident, they will be paid off from the
insurance company so to avoid this excess or deductible are used. Now,
the main difference are as follows:

An excess is an amount a policyholder must bear before the liability


passes to the insurer (subject to the sum insured) whereas deductible is
an amount withheld by the insurer from the claim amount paid to the
policyholder. The effect of an excess or deductible are the same if the
claim amount is fully covered, but differ when the claim amount exceeds
that maximum insured value.
Consider, for example of a claim made for a Rs2500 medical bill on a
policy with a maximum payable of Rs2000 in that clause.

Case 1: Policy includes a Rs100 excess. Initial cost to holder: Rs100.


Payable from company: Rs2000(maximum payable amount).

Case 2: Policy includes Rs100 deductible. No initial cost to holder. Payable


from company: Rs1900(maximum payable of Rs2000 minus deductible of
Rs100). A single policy can theoretically have both of them.

A deductible basically reduces the maximum payout, but an excess


doesn't. Let's see an example:

Scenario 1: A policy has sum insured 1,000 and excess of 100: If the loss
to the insured is 500, the insurer will pay out 400 If the loss to the insured
is 1,500, the insure will pay out 1,000 (i.e. the sum insured).

Scenario 2: A policy has sum insured 1,000 and deductible of 100: If the
loss to the insured is 500, the insurer will pay out 400If the loss to the
insured is 1,500, the insure will pay out 900 (i.e. the sum insured less the
deductible).
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7. What is Reinsurance and What are
the types of Reinsurance
Reinsurance contracts are those contracts in which one insurance
company transfers its risk to another insurance company. Insurance
companies which transfer the risk are known as ceding companies
also, direct writers. Accepting company i.e. the company which
accepts the risk is also known as reinsurer.

There are basically two types of reinsurance namely: a) facultative; b)


reinsurance by treaty.

Facultative reinsurance is when all individual policies are taken into


consideration and then a decision as to which policy needs reinsurance
and what % of risk needs to be transferred. It is called facultative
because it need not be covered by one company; it can be covered by
multiple companies. What risks need to be transferred is decided by
ceding company.
As in case of Aviation Insurance, fire insurance etc.
One major disadvantage of facultative reinsurance is accepting
company goes by the underwriting standards or policies of the ceding
company. Now if there is any fault in classification of risk and it has
been put in the wrong risk category (referred to as risk basket), then
the loss may be suffered by the reinsurer too. Now a days, in order to
have a better coverage or protection, now a days, reinsurance
companies have started involving themselves in the underwriting
process of the ceding company.

Reinsurance by treaty is when there is an agreement between direct


writer and the reinsurer. Reinsurance companies come up with
proposals to the direct writers as to what is the maximum amount of
risk they are ready to accept and what kinds of risks they are ready to
accept from the direct writers. The direct writers choose the best offer
and they enter into agreement.

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8. Extraction of IBNER from IBNR
This article gives a brief about the different forms of IBNR component and
its estimation that we generally come across in the General Insurance
industry.
Hopefully everyone is already familiar with the other terms of GI before
reading this article. It will be useful to familiarize yourself with the
following terms before reading this article any further (Ultimate Claims,
Reported Claims, Incurred, Accident/Underwriting/Reporting Year
Cohort, Chain Ladder Estimate, BF Estimate).
Before we get to the estimation, let us first clear our understandings of
the various terms.
Incurred but not reported (IBNR): For a particular year the actuaries
estimate the Ultimate Cost (generally referred as the Ultimate Claims) for
all the business that has been written. This ultimate cost can be divided
into Incurred Claims (Reported claim amount) and IBNR.
IBNR can be further split down to two categories:
1) Incurred but not enough reported (IBNER): This portion of the IBNR
refers to the not reported amount for the already reported claims. To
simply this let us take an example: A company received a claim for Motor
Insurance of Rs. 10,000 which will be recorded as the Incurred Claim
amount. However based on experience the Actuary estimates that the
final cost of the claim would be Rs. 15,000. Hence the difference of Rs.
5,000 is treated as the IBNER component of the claim.
2) Pure IBNR: This portion of the IBNR is the component that refers to the
claims cost for the claims which have not been reported till now. We can
also understand this as new claims which are not in the book but are
expected to be experienced. For ex – A company has written some
business in an area against which it has received 10 claims. However
based on experience the Actuary estimates these claims to be 15 in total.
Hence the cost of the additional 5 claims is considered as Pure IBNR.
When we estimate the Ultimate Claims for General Insurance classes on a
Reporting Year cohort we will be estimating the final cost of the Claims
which have already been reported to the company. Hence any IBNR
suggested under this methodology would all be IBNER as we would not
be expecting to incur any further reported claims under this basis.

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However, when we perform projections on an Underwriting
Year/Accident Year basis we face the issue of IBNER and Pure IBNR.
Please note that in general there is no need for the Actuary to split his
results between IBNER and Pure IBNR but we still need to have an
understating to explain the IBNR component in totally to other
stakeholders.
A general method used to separate out the IBNER and Pure IBNR
component can be based on the Average Cost per Claim Method (ACPC).

When we estimate the ultimate claims based on Incurred/Paid amount in


general for a Run-Off triangle we do not go into the separation of the
Claims Cost by each Claim. We can also estimate the ultimate claims cost
by the ACPC method. The estimation would require estimate the ultimate
claim count to be the expected and also estimating the ultimate average
claim cost expected.
Let us understand this with an example.
Suppose we have the reported claims and incurred amounts data for a
few Accident Years. Using the standard techniques we have estimated the
ultimate number of claims for each of the AYs. These can be seen below:
Reported Ultimate Unreported
AY Claims Claims claims
2015 140 140 0
2016 150 150 0
2017 140 145 5
2018 135 150 15
2019 100 155 55

Further, based on the Incurred Amounts we have estimated the current


Average Cost per Claim (Incurred Amounts/Reported Claims). Again using
the standard estimation techniques we will estimate the ultimate ACPC
for each of the AYs.
Ultimate
AY ACPC ACPC
2015 1000 1000
2016 1100 1100
2017 1050 1100
2018 900 1150
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2019 700 1145

Based on the above two tables we can estimate the IBNR component for
these claims.
AY Incurred Amount Ultimate Amount IBNR
2015 ₹ 1,40,000.00 ₹ 1,40,000.00 ₹ -
2016 ₹ 1,65,000.00 ₹ 1,65,000.00 ₹ -
2017 ₹ 1,47,000.00 ₹ 1,59,500.00 ₹ 12,500.00
2018 ₹ 1,21,500.00 ₹ 1,72,500.00 ₹ 51,000.00
2019 ₹ 70,000.00 ₹ 1,77,475.00 ₹ 1,07,475.00

Incurred Amount = Reported Claims * ACPC


Ultimate Costs = Ultimate Claims * Ultimate ACPC
IBNR = Ultimate Costs – Incurred Amount
Please note that the IBNR estimated in the table above is the total IBNR
(IBNER + Pure IBNR). Based on the information above we can estimate
the IBNER and Pure IBNR components:

AY IBNER Pure IBNR IBNR


2015 ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
2016 ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
2017 ₹ 7,000.00 ₹ 5,500.00 ₹ 12,500.00
2018 ₹ 33,750.00 ₹ 17,250.00 ₹ 51,000.00
2019 ₹ 44,500.00 ₹ 62,975.00 ₹ 1,07,475.00

IBNER = (Ultimate ACPC – ACPC) * Reported Claims


Pure IBNR = Ultimate ACPC * Unreported Claims
IBNR = IBNER + Pure IBNR

This is the most straightforward method to estimate the IBNR


components. There have been various researches and papers written to
estimate this using other statistical techniques as well. Interested people
can look at the papers available on CAS/IFoA websites or any other
Actuarial Forums.

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9. Risk Factors vs Rating Factors
Risk factors are those which influence the intensity of the risk. In case of a
car insurance these could include the age of the driver, the driving speed
or the type of car owned by the individual.

Rating factors on the other hand are used to determine the premium rate
for a policy. Risk factors are used as rating factors but in cases where the
risk factor is not measurable, rating factors can be used as a proxy for
them. Driving speed is an example of a risk factor that is difficult to
measure for car insurance. The age of the driver could be used as a rating
factor here since younger drivers are expected to drive faster.

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10. IBNR vs Case Outstanding
Now basically there are two types of reserves: IBNR which is done by
actuaries and other is "Case Outstanding" which is done by claims
professionals. Let's see the example: I am insurer and now insured called
me they met with an accident and wants to claim. Now our person will go
there and find out that there will 1000$ payment. So now that 1000$ will
be case outstanding. Suppose he pay 500$ upfront and keep reserves for
500$ then paid amount =500$ and case outstanding = 500$. Reported
claims = paid claims + case outstanding =500+500=1000$. Now what
about IBNR?
IBNR is based on the retrospective approach that is past data, it will look
at the reported claims and then project accordingly. It has nothing to do
with individual claims, it will look at aggregate number of claims and
amount paid
IBNR is an actuarial estimate of future payments on claims that have
occurred but have not yet been reported to us. In addition to this
provision for late reported claims, we also estimate, and make a provision
for, the extent to which the case reserves on known claims may develop
and for additional payments on closed claims, known as “reopening.”
IBNR reserves apply to the entire body of claims arising from a specific
time period, rather than a specific claim.
Most of our IBNR reserves relate to estimated future claim payments on
recorded open claims

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