Ed.

31

November 16th 2023

1. HIGHLIGHTS
• Cotton ginning in Brazil has reached 80% of the crop and HVI testing is at 77% for this
season. Planting of the 2024 crop is underway.
• In October, Brazil shipped 225.7 thousand tonnes of cotton. Despite being at a lower
level than that recorded in October 2022, it is the highest level achieved in terms of the
accumulated amount shipped so far this season (Aug-Oct/2023) since the 2018/19
season.
• Brazil makes a request to India for cotton import duty exemption: find out more.

*Market Year: Aug-23 to Jul-24

2. STATUS OF BRAZIL'S COTTON CROP

2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023

100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

80%

PLANTED HARVESTED GINNED

2022 2023 BCI Supply**

2022 2023 2024 BCI Demand*** (Year to date)

100% 100%
82%
77% 80%

46%
7%

BETTER COTTON
HVI TESTS SALES LICENSED COTTON

* Percentage of cotton sold by growers to merchants ** Better Cotton (BCI) licensed cotton volume in Brazil as
a % of total Brazilian cotton production (2023 Crop year)

***Better Cotton (BCI) units claimed by buyers for the

marketing year to date as a % of total Brazilian cotton
production (Market Year: Aug-23 to Jul-24)
Ed. 31

November 16th 2023

3. 2024 CROP
The forecast for cotton lint production is 3.3 million tonnes (+2%) from a planted area of
1.81 million hectares (+8%) (Abrapa field survey in October 2023).

Area planted with Cotton in Brazil (in million hectares)

1.814
1.618 1.666 1.600 1.674
1.371

+8%

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023* 2024*

Planting season in Brazil starts in November of the previous year

Cotton Lint Production in Brazil (in 1,000 tonnes)

3.23 3.30
3.00
2.78
2.55
2.36

+2%

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023* 2024*

Source: Conab. *2023 and 2024 forecast: Abrapa Oct/2023 .

Abrapa's crop estimate is for a national average cotton yield of 1,931 kg per hectare in
2023, an increase of 21% over the previous year, and 1,818 kg per hectare in 2024.
Ed. 31

November 16th 2023

4. EXPORT SHIPMENTS
In October, Brazil shipped 225.7 thousand tonnes of cotton. This volume represents a
13% drop compared to October/2022 and total revenues of US$435.6 million.

Volume of Cotton Exported (in 1.000 tons)

260.1
241.3
225.7
203.1

-13%

October 2020 October 2021 October 2022 October 2023

Source: ComexStat – ME, Nov/2023

Brazilian Cotton Top Export Destinations

(Oct/23) in tons
China was the China 162,293 72%
main destination Vietnam 14,912 7%
for Brazilian cotton
Bangladesh 14,528 6%
in October and
Turkey 12,328 5%
represented 72%
of total cotton Indonesia 9,065 4%
exports in the Pakistan 4,373 2%
month. South Korea 3,193 1%

Malaysia 2,072 1%

Portugal 0,916 0%

Egypt 0,883 0%

Others 1,119 0%
Total 225,681

Source: ComexStat – ME, Nov/2023

Ed. 31

November 16th 2023

With the October shipments, Brazil has achieved its best performance in the first
quarter since the 2018/19 market year. It is expected that Brazilian cotton exports will
reach 2.4 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season.

Brazilian cotton exports (in 1.000 tonnes)

2020/21 2022/23 2023/24

400

350

269
(1.000 tonnes)

300 260
250
185 176
200
226 124
150
104 187
76 73
100 61 60 60
43
50
63
0
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Source: ComexStat – ME, Nov/2023 Market Year: August to July

Brazilian cotton exports (in 1.000 tonnes)

Total Aug to Oct
3000.0

2500.0
2,398 2,400

1,946
2000.0
1,683
1,449
1500.0 1,310

1000.0
498 508 508 516.509
500.0 394
289

-
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Source: ComexStat – ME, Nov/2023 Market Year: August to July. * Forecast

Ed. 31

November 16th 2023

In these first three months of the 2023/24 market year, Brazil shipped 517 thousand
tonnes of cotton. This volume represents an increase of 1.7% compared with the same
period in 2022 and a total revenue of US$973 million.

Total Volume of Cotton Exported (1.000 tons)

600
508 508 517
500
394
400
+1.7%
300

200

100

0
Aug/20 to Oct/20 Aug/21 to Oct/21 Aug/22 to Oct/22 Aug/23 to Oct/23

Source: ComexStat – ME, Nov/2023

China remains as the main Brazilian Cotton Top Export Destinations

importer of Brazilian cotton. (Aug/23 to Oct/23) in tonnes
In the accumulated
numbers, the country China 322,753 62%

imported more than 322 Vietnam 42,226 8%

thousand tonnes of cotton, Bangladesh 37,844 7%
which represents 62% of
Turkey 35,403 7%
the total volume shipped
Indonesia 25,225 5%
overseas from August to
October this year. Malaysia 19,159 4%

Pakistan 16,619 3%
Egypt, which was not open South Korea 5,911 1%
to Brazilian cotton until the 1%
Portugal 3,853
beginning of 2024, now
Egypt 2,735 1%
appears as the 10th largest
Others 4,781 1%
importer of Brazilian
exports. Total Geral 516,509

Source: ComexStat – ME, Nov/2023

Ed. 31

November 16th 2023

5. 2023/24 MARKET YEAR EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC USE

The charts below compare the performance of the current market year (2023/24) with the
average Brazilian cotton exports over the last five years and the average volume for
domestic use in Brazil also over the last five years.

2023/24 Export Shipments vs Average % of Accumulated Exports by Anea*

*Brazilian exports for 23/24 estimated at 2.4 million tonnes by Anea

2023/24 5 years avg.

97% 100%
100%
88% 93%
82%
75% 66% 74%
54%
50% 39%

25%
25%
12%
4% 22%
12%
0%
3%
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24

Source: MDIC and ANEA

2023/24 Domestic use estimate vs. accumulated domestic use 5-year avg.
Domestic consumption estimated at 730 thousand tonnes (Aug23-Jul24)

2023/24 5 years avg.

100% 100%
83% 92%
75%
75% 67%
58%
50%
50% 42%
33%
25%
25% 17%
8%
17% 25%
8%
0%
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24

Source: Abrapa, Conab and Abit

Ed. 31

November 16th 2023

6. PRICES
In October, the Cepea indicator remained stable, closing the month at US$c79.81/pound.
The average difference between domestic and international prices closed the month at
-512 points.

CEPEA Index versus ICE Futures NY

190
(US$ cents/pound)

140

90

40

Cepea cents US$/pound ICE cents US$/pound

Cepea Index versus ICE Futures NY

3000
2500
100 points = 1 cent US$/Pound

2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
Jan/2022

Dec/2022
Jun/2022

Aug/2022

Sep/2022

Nov/2022

Jan/2023

Jun/2023

Aug/2023

Sep/2023
Jul/2022

Jul/2023
Feb/2022

Mar/2022

Apr/2022

May/2022

Oct/2022

Feb/2023

Mar/2023

Apr/2023

May/2023

Oct/2023

Compared Indicators (cents/lb)

120 106 106 107

96 93
100 89 87 91 88 89
79 75 76
80 78 75
83 83
80
60
40
20
0
Latest Value (Nov 08) Latest Month (Oct) Last 12 Months (Nov22-Oct23)

Cepea NY Nearby A Index CC Index Indian Spot Pakistan Spot

Source: Cepea/USP and ICE Futures, Nov/2023

The *CEPEA Index is the most commonly used price index for domestic cotton market prices in Brazil.
Ed. 31
7. MADE IN BRAZIL
Data and information about Brazilian cotton production
Brazil makes a request to the Indian
government to exempt cotton imports
Brazilian cotton growers have initiated
important talks with the Indian
government and trade associations to
obtain an import quota for Brazilian
cotton, which will provide exemption
from the 11% import tariff currently in
force in India.
The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association
(Abrapa) was part of the Brazilian Ministry
of Agriculture and Livestock delegation
that visited the country at the beginning of
November.
India is among the ten priority countries
for Abrapa. Estimates indicate that India
will need to purchase 500 thousand
tonnes of cotton in 2023/24 and Brazil is
willing to supply cotton to the Indian
textile industry.
The vice-president of Abrapa, Mr.
Celestino Zanella, and the director of
International Relations, Mr. Marcelo
Duarte, met with the general secretary of
the Confederation of the Indian Textile
Industry (CITI), Mrs. Chandrima
November 16th 2023
Chatterjee, to explain their request . The
two organizations have been partners
since 2021 when a Memorandum of
Understanding was signed between CITI,
Abrapa and the National Cotton Shippers
Association (Anea).
A meeting between the Indian Ministry of
Commerce, Brazilian Minister of
Agriculture and Livestock, Mr. Carlos
Fávaro, the president of the Brazilian
Trade and Investment Promotion Agency
(Apex-Brasil), Mr. Jorge Viana, and the
Brazilian ambassador to India, Mr.
Kenneth Nóbrega, was held in order to
strengthen the request to remove the
import tariff.
India is expected to require more cotton
supply to fulfill the needs of its textile
sector, and cotton from Brazil can be
used to supplement the existing stock.
During the India mission, the Brazilian
delegation reiterated the quality of
Brazilian cotton and its reliability as a
supplier to the Indian market.