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Building Planning Information

System

Required Data
1. Population Data
2. Housing Data
3. Economic Data
4. Natural Resources
5. Historical and Cultural Resources
6. Land Use
7. Land Development Trends

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1. Population Data
• The collection of population and
demographic information is necessary for
three basic reasons: (1) to review past
trends; (2) to assess current conditions;
and (3) to identify future trends.
• The important factors to determine about
population are its absolute increase and
rate of growth, its distribution, and its
composition and mobility.

1.Population Data
Population data should be gathered for the community, neighboring
towns, and region, including

• total number of persons in the community or region

• total number of females and males
• total number of households
• total number of people living in group quarters or institutions
• total number of married couples/families
• average number of people and average number of families per
household
• median age of the population (Note: the median age is not the
average age. Half of the population is older and half is younger than the
median age.)
• number of persons by sex and age groups
• educational attainment of the population

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Definitions
• Estimate:
– “is an indirect measure of a present or past
condition that can be directly measured.”
• Projection (or Prediction):
– “are calculations of future conditions that
would exist as a result of adopting a set of
underlying assumptions.”
• Forecast:
– “is a judgmental statement of what the
analyst believes to be the most likely
future.”

Projections vs. Forecasts

• The distinction between projections and
forecasts are important because:
– Analysts often use projections when they
should be using forecasts.
– Projections are mislabeled as forecasts
– Analysts prepare projections that they know
will be accepted as forecasts without
evaluating the assumptions implicit in their
analytic results.

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Extrapolation: A Two Stage

Process
• Curve Fitting -
– Analyzes past data to identify overall trends of
growth or decline

• Curve Extrapolation -
– Extends the identified trend to project the
future

Assumptions and Conventions

• Graphic conventions Assume:
– Independent variable: x axis
– Dependent variable: y axis

• This suggests that population change (y

axis) is dependent on (caused by) the
passage of time!

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Assumptions and Conventions

• Population change reflects the change in aggregate
of three factors:
– births
– deaths
– migration
• These factors are time related and are caused by
other time related factors:
– health levels
– economic conditions
• Time is a proxy that reflects the net effect of a large
number of unmeasured events.

Caveats/Warning
• The extrapolation technique should never be used to
blindly assume that past trends of growth or decline
will continue into the future.
– Past trends observed, not because they will
always continue, but because they generally
provide the best available information about the
future.
• Must carefully analyze:
– Determine whether past trends can be expected to
continue, or
– If continuation seems unlikely, alternatives must
be considered

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Alternative Extrapolation Curves

• Linear
• Geometric
• Parabolic
• Modified Exponential
• Gompertz
• Logistic

Linear Curve
• Fits a straight line to population data. The growth rate is
assumed to be constant, with non-compounding
incremental growth. Calculated exactly the same as
using linear regression (least-squares criterion).
• Formula: Yc = a + bx
– a = constant or intercept
– b = slope
• Substituting values of x yields Yc
• Conventions of the formula:
– curve increases without limit if the b value > 0
– curve is flat if the b value = 0
– curve decreases without limit if the b value < 0

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The Linear Curve

• Advantages:
--Simplest curve
--Most widely used
--Useful for slow or non-growth areas
• Disadvantages:
--Rarely appropriate to demographic data
• Example:
Y = 55,000 + 6,000(X)
In plain language, this equation tells us that for each year that passes,
we can project an additional 6,000 people will be added to the
population. So, in 10 years we would project 60,000 more people
using this equation (6,000 * 10).
• Evaluation: Generally used as a staring point for curve fitting.

Linear Curve

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Linear Curve Computations for Even Number of

Observations
Year Observed Value Index Value Index Value Prodeuced of
Y X Squared Observed and Index
X2 Values
XY
1940 17 -9 81 -153.0
1945 23 -7 49 -161.00
1950 29 -5 25 -145.00
1955 35 -3 9 -105.00
1960 43 -1 1 -43.0
1965 52 1 1 52.00
1970 63 3 9 189.00
1975 77 5 25 385.00
1980 87 7 49 609.00
1985 100 9 81 900.00
Sum 526.0 ∑x=0 330 1528.0

Linear Curve Computation for Odd

Observations
Year Observed Value Index Value Index Value Prodeuced of
Squared Observed and Index
Values
1940 17 -4 16 -68.00
1945 23 -3 9 -69.00
1950 29 -2 4 -58.00
1955 35 -1 1 -35.00
1960 43 0 0 0
1965 52 1 1 52.00
1970 63 2 4 126.00
1975 77 3 9 231.00
1980 87 4 16 348.00
Sum 426.00 ... 60 527.00

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Geometric Curve
• In this curve, a growth rate is assumed to be
compounded at set intervals using a constant growth
rate. To transform this equation into a linear equation, we
use logarithms. Y = abx

• Formula: Yc = abx
– a = constant (intercept)
– b = 1 plus growth rate (slope)
• Difference between linear and geometric curves:
– Linear: constant incremental growth
– Geometric: constant growth rate
• Conventions of the formula:
– if b value > 1 curve increases without limit
– b value = 1, then the curve is equal to a
– if b value < 1 curve approaches 0 as x increases

The Geometric Curve

Advantages:
--Assumes a constant rate of growth
--Still simple to use
• Disadvantage:
--Does not take into account a growth limit
• Example:
Y = 55,000 * (1.00 + 0.06)X
In plain language, this equation tells us that we have a 6% growth
rate. After one year we project a population of 58,300. After 10 years
we would project a population of 98,497.
• Evaluation: Pretty good for short term fast-growing areas.
However, over the long-run, this curve usually generates
unrealistically high numbers.

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Geometric Curve

Parabolic Curve
• Parabolic (Polynomial) Curve: A curve with “one bend” and a
constantly changing slope. Formula: Y = a + bX + cX2

• Formula: Yc = a + bx + cx2
– a = constant (intercept)
– b = equal to the slope
– c = when positive: curve is concave upward
when = 0, curve is linear
when negative, curve is concave downward
growth increments increase or decrease as the x variable increases
• Caution should be exercised when using for long
range projections.
• Assumes growth or decline has no limits

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The Parabolic Curve (Y = a + bX + cX2)

• Advantage:
--Models fast growing areas
• Disadvantages:
--Poor for long range projections
--No Growth Limit
--More complex
• Example:
Y = 43.46 + 8.78(X) + 0.581(X2)
When X=0, Y =43.46. When X = 6, Y = 117.1
• Evaluation: Exactly the same as the Geometric Curve; good for
fast growing areas, but poor over the long run.

Parabolic Curve

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Modified Exponential Curve

• Modified Exponential Curve/Asymptotic Curves: An
asymptotic growth curve that recognizes that a
region will reach an upper limit of growth. It
takes the form: Y = c + ab X

• Formula: Yc = c + abx
– c = Upper limit
– b = ratio of successive growth
– a = constant

• This curve recognizes that growth will approach

a limit
– Most municipal areas have defined areas
• i.e.: boundaries of cities or counties

Modified Exponential Curve

•Advantage:
--Growth limit is introduced
--“Best fitting” growth limit
• Disadvantage:
--Much more complex calculations
--Misleading “Growth limit” (high and low)
• Example:
Yc = 114 - 64(0.75)X
The growth limit is 114. The curve takes into account the number of
time periods and as X gets larger the closer you get to the Growth
limit. When X = 0, Y = 50; when X = 2, Y = 78, etc.
• Evaluation: This curve largely depends upon the growth limit. If
the limit is reasonable, then the curve can be a good one. Also, the
ability to calculate the growth limit within the model is very useful.

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Modified Exponential Curve

Gompertz Curve
• Describes a growth pattern that is initially quite slow, increases for a
period and then tapers off. Like the Mod Exp curve, the upper limit
can be assumed or derived by the model.

• Formula: Log Yc = log c + log a(bx)

– c = Upper limit
– b = ratio of successive growth
– a = constant
• Very similar to the Modified Exponential Curve
• Curve describes:
– initially quite slow growth
– increases for a period, then
– growth tapers off
• very similar to neighborhood and/or city growth patterns over the
long term

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The Gompertz Curve

•Advantage:
--Reflects very common growth patterns
• Disadvantages:
--Getting even more complex
--Misleading growth limit (limit can be high or low)
• Example:
log Yc = 2.699 - 1.056(0.9221)X
The equation itself is tough to understand. When X = 0, Log Y =
1.64, so Y = 44.0 (via antilog calculation).
Note: Antilog of 2.699 is 500 (the growth limit)
• Evaluation: A very useful curve that can be fitted to all kinds of
growth patterns. However, as with the previous curve, using an
assumed growth limit can be problematic unless it is reasonable and
makes sense for the case at hand.

Gompertz Curve

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Logistic Curve
• VERY similar to the Mod Exp and the Gompertz curves, except that
we are taking the reciprocals of the observed values. A very popular
curve.

• Formula: Yc = 1 / Yc-1 where Yc-1 = c + abX

– c = Upper limit
– b = ratio of successive growth
– a = constant
• Identical to the Modified Exponential and Gompertz curves, except:
– observed values of the modified exponential curve and the logarithms
of observed values of the Gompertz curve are replaced by the
reciprocals of the observed values.
– Result: the ratio of successive growth increments of the reciprocals
of the Yc values are equal to a constant
• Appeal: Same as the Gompertz Curve

The Logistic Curve (Y = (c + abX)-1 )

•Advantages:
--Has proven to be a good projection tool
--Considered a bit more stable than the Gompertz curve
• Disadvantages:
--Complex!
--Hard to interpret the formula
• Example:
Yc-1 = 0.0020 + 0.217(0.8015)X
Another difficult to interpret equation. When X = 0, Y = 42.1. When
X = 6, Y = 128.9. Note: Reciprocal of .002 is 500 (GL)
• Evaluation: Considered to be the “best” of the extrapolation
curves. It reflects a well-known growth pattern. It is more stable than
the Gompertz curve and it does not have a misleading growth limit.

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Logistic Curve

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