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February 12, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 13th

12 February 2024 - 19:00

Some USD downside risks on US CPI…

…although the outlook is complicated by continuing US equity market
strength…

North American Summary and Highlights 12 Feb

12 February 2024 - 17:46

Overview - The USD advanced against the JPY and slipped against
riskier currencies as equities advanced. Equity gains later faded and the
riskier currencies corrected, though USD/JPY remained firmer.

Preliminary Signals Look Solid For Q1 U.S. GDP

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12 February 2024 - 15:11

Signals on Q1 U.S. GDP are still limited with little data for January yet
available. However current momentum suggests a weak quarter is
unlikely. Our current estimate is for an annualized increase of 2.4%. The
Atlanta Fed’s nowcast is stronger, at 3.4%, which would be similar to
Q4’s 3.3%.

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending cautious trade

beneath 1.3460/85 - weekly studies improving
12 February 2024 - 13:54

Consolidation within resistance at the 1.3460 Fibonacci retracement

and the 1.3485 high of 5 February is giving way to a minor pullback

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating test of

strong resistance at 7.2275 - 7.2320
12 February 2024 - 13:40

The test of strong resistance at the 7.2275 Fibonacci retracement and

the 7.2320 current year high of 17 January is giving way to a pullback

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - daily

studies leaning lower
12 February 2024 - 13:18

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade following the bounce from
above congestion support at 1.3400

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 13th

12 February 2024 - 13:09

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Some USD downside risks on US CPI…

…although the outlook is complicated by continuing US equity market
strength…

Chart USD/RUB Update: Further consolidation -

background studies remain positive
12 February 2024 - 11:29

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath congestion

resistance at 92.0000

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Balanced above

104.00 - sentiment is cautious
12 February 2024 - 11:08

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support

at 104.00

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Consolidating - studies

leaning lower
12 February 2024 - 10:50

Little change, as flat intraday studies keep near-term sentiment

cautious

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Cautious trade - limited

tests lower
12 February 2024 - 10:20

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade around congestion

resistance at 19.0000

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Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January CPI -

Subdued Start to the New Year
12 February 2024 - 09:55

We expect January CPI to increase by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food

and energy, with our forecasts before rounding being 0.13% overall and
0.23% ex food and energy. Still, the ex food and energy rate would then
be slower than the 0.3% gains seen in November and December.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Cautious trade - studies

leaning lower
12 February 2024 - 08:51

The test below strong support at 1.4500 has bounced smartly from
1.4459

European Summary and Highlights 12 Feb

12 February 2024 - 08:18

The USD moved slightly firmer against the EUR, but was otherwise
generally fairly steady through the European morning.

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Psychology for major markets Feb 12

12 February 2024 - 08:14

EUR risks shifting to the upside

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating - potential

for a test of strong resistance at 0.9450/70
12 February 2024 - 07:01

Little change, as falling intraday studies keep near-term sentiment under

pressure

FX Weekly Strategy: February 12th-16th

12 February 2024 - 07:00

USD downside risks on US CPI

Riskier currencies may benefit most initially, but JPY has more upside
potential…

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Limited tests lower

12 February 2024 - 06:54

The break below 161.00 is extending, as intraday studies turn down

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating, but focus

remains on the 0.8785 Fibonacci retracement
12 February 2024 - 06:34

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment

cautious

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Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating -

background studies under pressure
12 February 2024 - 06:21

Still little change, as unwinding overbought intraday studies keep near-

term sentiment cautious

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade -

background studies under pressure
12 February 2024 - 06:09

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment

cautious

Chart USD/JPY Update: Limited tests lower

12 February 2024 - 05:46

Consolidation beneath the 149.57 current year high of 9 February is

giving way to a drift lower

Chart EUR/USD Update: Limited scope above

1.0800
12 February 2024 - 05:34

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 1.0800 is giving way to

a minor pullback

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Feb 6th

12 February 2024 - 05:22

GBP net long and AUD net short positions stand out as extended

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Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited scope above

1.2650
12 February 2024 - 05:22

The anticipated test of resistance at 1.2650 is giving way to fresh

consolidation

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD starting softer as yields

slip
12 February 2024 - 05:15

Yield spreads pointing lower for the USD

Reserve Bank of India Review: No Rate Cut On The

Horizon
12 February 2024 - 03:25

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, led by

Governor Shaktikanta Das, chose to keep the repo rate unchanged at
6.5% for the sixth consecutive time, aiming to support ongoing
economic recovery while ensuring a sustained decline in inflation.
Despite signs of inflation moderation and

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Asia Summary and Highlights 12 Feb

12 February 2024 - 01:45

It is a quiet Monday with markets observing Lunar New Year

RBNZ Gov Orr says inflation remains too high, that's why we've kept
cash rate at 5.5%

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, February 12th-16th

12 February 2024 - 01:35

USD downside risks on US CPI

Riskier currencies may benefit most initially, but JPY has more upside
potential…

NZD/USD flows: Quiet Monday as most Asia

market observe Lunar New Year
12 February 2024 - 01:16

It is a quiet Monday with markets observing Lunar New Year

RBNZ Gov Orr says inflation remains too high, that's why we've kept
cash rate at 5.5%

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights

11 February 2024 - 21:00

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the major
movement in the greenback awais the CPI data in the New York sessio…

February 11, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, February 12th-16th

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11 February 2024 - 19:00

USD downside risks on US CPI

Riskier currencies may benefit most initially, but JPY has more upside
potential…

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, February 12th-16th

11 February 2024 - 15:00

USD downside risks on US CPI

Riskier currencies may benefit most initially, but JPY has more upside
potential…

February 09, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 9 Feb

09 February 2024 - 17:23

Overview - In quiet trade the USD saw some losses after CPI revisions
left the falling trend intact while CAD was unable to sustain gains on
stronger than expected employment data.

U.S. Fed's Logan - Notes progress on inflation but

no urgency to ease
09 February 2024 - 17:08

Due February 22 - U.S. January Existing Home

Sales - Due for a bounce
09 February 2024 - 15:18

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We expect existing home sales to see a 6 3% January increase to

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating within

1.3460/85 - weekly studies improving
09 February 2024 - 13:54

Little change

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy above 1.3400 -

potential for a minor test beneath here
09 February 2024 - 13:33

The anticipated move down to congestion support at 1.3400 has

bounced from just above here

FX Weekly Strategy: February 12th-16th

09 February 2024 - 13:22

USD downside risks on US CPI

Riskier currencies may benefit most initially, but JPY has more upside
potential…

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U.S. Annual CPI Revisions Leave Picture Looking

Little Changed
09 February 2024 - 11:15

The much discussed annual US CPI revisions turned out to produce few
major changes, a contrast to last year when late year data was revised
up and early year data was revised down. The lack of significant
revisions this year leaves the progress on inflation seen in the second
half of 2023 intact.

CAD flows: CAD makes modest gains on

employment report
09 February 2024 - 11:03

USD/CAD edged lower after better headline data, but downside limited

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating -

potential for a minor test lower
09 February 2024 - 11:01

Minor gains have failed to reach strong resistance at the 104.60 high of
5 February and the 104.75 Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Pressuring strong

resistance at 19.0000 - 19.1050
09 February 2024 - 10:52

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 19.0000 is giving way

to consolidation

Canada January Employment - Strong headline,

details less impressive
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12/02/2024, 20:30 Continuum Economics

09 February 2024 - 10:50

Canada’s employment data is stronger than expected on the headline

with a rise of 37.3k and a fall in unemployment to 5.7% from 5.8% but
the strong headline masks a fall of 11.6k in full time work while the BoC…

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Cautious trade above

critical support at 4.2930/00
09 February 2024 - 09:13

The anticipated fresh test above resistance at 4.3500 has not been
seen

European Summary and Highlights 09 Feb

09 February 2024 - 08:29

A quiet European morning saw little net change in the major currencies.

Psychology for major markets Feb 9

09 February 2024 - 08:19

JPY weak, AUD firm as strong equities and low vol encourage carry
traders

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GENERAL

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