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  • Forecasting in Class Exercise

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    Murat Yücekuş
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    This document contains: 1) Demand data from 2012-2016 and forecasts using exponential smoothing with alpha values of 0.2 and 0.4. 2) The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for each method, which is 12.25% for alpha=0.2 and 10.48% for alpha=0.4. 3) The conclusion that exponential smoothing with alpha=0.4 is chosen because it results in lower error rates than the other method.

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    Forecasting In Class Exercise

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    This document contains: 1) Demand data from 2012-2016 and forecasts using exponential smoothing with alpha values of 0.2 and 0.4. 2) The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for each method, which is 12.25% for alpha=0.2 and 10.48% for alpha=0.4. 3) The conclusion that exponential smoothing with alpha=0.4 is chosen because it results in lower error rates than the other method.

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    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    6 views2 pages

    Forecasting in Class Exercise

    Uploaded by

    Murat Yücekuş
    This document contains: 1) Demand data from 2012-2016 and forecasts using exponential smoothing with alpha values of 0.2 and 0.4. 2) The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for each method, which is 12.25% for alpha=0.2 and 10.48% for alpha=0.4. 3) The conclusion that exponential smoothing with alpha=0.4 is chosen because it results in lower error rates than the other method.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 2

    GİZLİ / CONFIDENTIAL #

    Demand (a= 0,2)


    Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Actual
    Demand 4500 5000 4800 6000 6500 2012 4500
    Forecast 4500 4700 4740 5244 5746 2013 5000
    2014 4800
    i) 4500 4500 4600 4640 4912 2015 6000
    ii) 4500 4500 4700 4740 5244 2016 6500

    MAPE a=0,2
    12.25%
    Group Members
    Murat Yücekuş
    Eren Düşgün
    Ceren Dumansız We choose exponential smoothing with a=0,4 b
    Nurgül Şuğle Kaya
    Doğan Günes

    # GİZLİ / CONFIDENTIAL
    GİZLİ / CONFIDENTIAL #

    Demand (a= 0,2) Demand (a= 0,4)


    Forecast (a=0,2) Error Year Actual Forecast (a=0,4) Error
    4500 0% 2012 4500 4500 0%
    4500 10% 2013 5000 4500 10%
    4600 4% 2014 4800 4700 2%
    4640 23% 2015 6000 4740 21%
    4912 24% 2016 6500 5244 19%

    MAPE a=0,4
    10.48%

    xponential smoothing with a=0,4 because error rates is less than other

    # GİZLİ / CONFIDENTIAL

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