Alg2 ch6

Lesson
6
6.1 CC.9-12.A.APR.5 (+)
6.2 CC.9-12.S.MD.3 (+)*
Data Analysis
and Statistics
6.1 Use Combinations and the Binomial Theorem
6.2 Construct and Interpret Binomial Distributions
6.3 Use Normal Distributions
6.3 CC.9-12.S.ID.4*
6.4 CC.9-12.S.IC.1* 6.4 Select and Draw Conclusions
6.5 CC.9-12.S.IC.3* from Samples
6.5 Compare Surveys, Experiments,
and Observational Studies
Before
In previous chapters, you learned the following skills, which you’ll use in this
chapter: describing distributions, ordering real numbers, and finding probabilities.
Prerequisite Skills
VOCABULARY CHECK
0.4
Copy and complete the statement.
Probability
0.3
1. The probability of an event is a
0.2
number from ? to ? that indicates
the likelihood the event will occur. 0.1
2. The binomial distribution at the right 0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
is not skewed. Instead, it is ? . Number of successes
SKILLS CHECK
Graph the numbers on a number line. Then write the numbers in increasing order.
3 } 2 , 2Ï} 4 , 21.24, Ï} } 6
3. 2}, 0.4, Ï 7 , 21.3, } 12 4. 1.5, } 2 , 2Ï3 , }
4 3 3 5
x 2 68 for the x-values 64, 72, and 76.

5. Evaluate the expression }
4
Find the square root of each number.

} } } }
6. Ï 100 7. Ï 49 8. Ï 900 9. Ï10,000
JupiterImages/Creatas/Alamy
376
CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06CO.indd 376 5/11/11 4:31:46 PM

Now
In this chapter, you will apply the big ideas listed below and reviewed in the
Chapter Summary. You will also use the key vocabulary listed below.
Big Ideas
1 Using normal distributions
2 Working with samples
KEY VOCABULARY
• combination • normal distribution • biased questions
• Pascal’s triangle • normal curve • experiment
• binomial theorem • standard normal • observational
• random variable distribution study
• probability distribution • z-score • controlled experiment
• binomial distribution • sample • control group
• binomial experiment • unbiased sample • treatment group
• symmetric • biased sample • randomized comparative
• skewed • margin of error experiment
Why?
You can use statistics to determine probabilities. For example, you can determine the
probability of an event based on the results of a survey.
Algebra
The animation illustrated below can help you answer a question from this chapter:
What is the probability that at most 2 households in a randomly chosen group of 6 have
a soccer ball?
The scoreboard reflects the scores accumulated by each of the 10 contestants.

The s.
Round 1
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10
eboard
Scoreboar
Contestant 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scorree 111 114 97 102 120 113 116 114 106 110
Start
Shoot Ar row
o ws Continue
Construct a binomial distribution. Use it to

According to a survey, about 41% of all U.S. determine a probability.
households have a soccer ball.
(inset)Getty Images/Photodisc
Algebra at my.hrw.com
377
6.1 Use Combinations and
the Binomial Theorem
Before You used the counting principle and permutations.
Now You will use combinations and the binomial theorem.
Why? So you can find ways to form a set, as in Example 2.
Key Vocabulary You have learned that order is important for some counting problems. For
• combination other counting problems, order is not important. For instance, if you purchase
• Pascal’s triangle a package of trading cards, the order of the cards inside the package is not
• binomial theorem important. A combination is a selection of r objects from a group of n objects
where the order is not important.
KEY CONCEPT For Your Notebook

Combinations of n Objects Taken r at a Time
CC.9-12.A.APR.5 (+) Know and
apply the Binomial Theorem
for the expansion of (x + y)n in
The number of combinations of r objects taken from a group of n distinct
powers of x and y for a positive objects is denoted by nCr and is given by this formula:
integer n, where x and y are
any numbers, with coefficients n!
C 5 }}}}}
determined for example by n r (n 2 r)! p r!
Pascal’s Triangle.
EXAMPLE 1 Find combinations Standard 52-Card Deck
CARDS A standard deck of 52 playing cards has K K K K

4 suits with 13 different cards in each suit. Q Q Q Q
J J J J
a. If the order in which the cards are dealt is 10 10 10 10
not important, how many different 5-card 9 9 9 9
hands are possible? 8 8 8 8
7 7 7 7
b. In how many 5-card hands are all 5 cards of
6 6 6 6
the same color?
5 5 5 5
4 4 4 4
Solution 3 3 3 3
a. The number of ways to choose 5 cards 2 2 2 2
from a deck of 52 cards is: A A A A
52! 5 52 p 51 p 50 p 49 p 48 p 47! 5 2,598,960

C 5 }}}} }}}}}}}}}}}
52 5 47! p 5! 47! p 5!
b. For all 5 cards to be the same color, you need to choose 1 of the
2 colors and then 5 of the 26 cards in that color. So, the number of
possible hands is:
2! p 26! 5 2 p 26 p 25 p 24 p 23 p 22 p 21! 5 131,560

C p 26C5 5 }}} }}}} }}} }}}}}}}}}}}
2 1 1! p 1! 21! p 5! 1p1 21! p 5!
Robbie Jack/Corbis
378 Chapter 6 Data Analysis and Statistics
CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06L01.indd 378 5/11/11 4:33:08 PM

MULTIPLE EVENTS When finding the number of ways both an event A and an
event B can occur, you need to multiply, as in part (b) of Example 1. When finding
the number of ways that event A or event B can occur, you add instead.
EXAMPLE 2 Decide to multiply or add combinations

THEATER William Shakespeare wrote 38 plays that can be divided into three
genres. Of the 38 plays, 18 are comedies, 10 are histories, and 10 are tragedies.
a. How many different sets of exactly 2 comedies and 1 tragedy can you read?
b. How many different sets of at most 3 plays can you read?
AVOID ERRORS Solution

When finding the
a. You can choose 2 of the 18 comedies and 1 of the 10 tragedies. So, the
number of ways to
number of possible sets of plays is:
select at most n objects,
be sure to include the 18! p 10! 5 18 p 17 p 16! p 10 p 9! 5 153 p 10 5 1530
C p 10C1 5 }}}} }}} }}}}}} }}}
possibility of selecting 18 2 16! p 2! 9! p 1! 16! p 2 p 1 9! p 1
0 objects.
b. You can read 0, 1, 2, or 3 plays. Because there are 38 plays that can be
chosen, the number of possible sets of plays is:
C 1 38C1 1 38C2 1 38C 3 5 1 1 38 1 703 1 8436 5 9178
38 0
SUBTRACTING POSSIBILITIES Counting problems that involve phrases like “at

least” or “at most” are sometimes easier to solve by subtracting possibilities you
do not want from the total number of possibilities.
EXAMPLE 3 Solve a multi-step problem

BASKETBALL During the school year, the girl’s basketball team is scheduled
to play 12 home games. You want to attend at least 3 of the games. How many
different combinations of games can you attend?
Solution
Of the 12 home games, you want to attend 3 games, or 4 games, or 5 games, and
so on. So, the number of combinations of games you can attend is:
12 3
C 1 12C4 1 12C5 1 . . . 1 12C12
Instead of adding these combinations, use the following reasoning. For each of
the 12 games, you can choose to attend or not attend the game, so there are 212
total combinations. If you attend at least 3 games, you do not attend only a total
of 0, 1, or 2 games. So, the number of ways you can attend at least 3 games is:
212 2 (12C 0 1 12C1 1 12C2 ) 5 4096 2 (1 1 12 1 66) 5 4017
✓ GUIDED PRACTICE for Examples 1, 2, and 3
Find the number of combinations.

1. 8C3 2. C
10 6
3. 7C2 4. C
14 5
5. WHAT IF? In Example 2, how many different sets of exactly 3 tragedies and
2 histories can you read?
6.1 Use Combinations and the Binomial Theorem 379

PASCAL’S TRIANGLE If you arrange the values of nCr in a triangular pattern in
which each row corresponds to a value of n, you get what is called Pascal’s
triangle. Pascal’s triangle is named after the French mathematician
Blaise Pascal (1623−1662).

Pascal’s Triangle
Pascal’s triangle is shown below with its entries represented by combinations
and with its entries represented by numbers. The first and last numbers in each
row are 1. Every number other than 1 is the sum of the closest two numbers in
the row directly above it.
Pascal’s triangle Pascal’s triangle
as combinations as numbers
n 5 0 (0th row) C
0 0
1
n 5 1 (1st row) C
1 0
C
1 1
1 1
n 5 2 (2nd row) C
2 0
C
2 1
C
2 2
1 2 1
n 5 3 (3rd row) 3 0
C C
3 1
C
3 2
C
3 3
1 3 3 1
n 5 4 (4th row) C
4 0
C
4 1
C
4 2
C
4 3
C
4 4
1 4 6 4 1
n 5 5 (5th row) C
5 0 5 1
C C
5 2
C
5 3
C
5 4 5 5
C 1 5 10 10 5 1
EXAMPLE 4 Use Pascal’s triangle

SCHOOL CLUBS The 6 members of a Model UN club must choose 2 representatives
to attend a state convention. Use Pascal’s triangle to find the number of
combinations of 2 members that can be chosen as representatives.
Solution
Because you need to find 6C2, write the 6th row of Pascal’s triangle by adding
numbers from the previous row.
n 5 5 (5th row) 1 5 10 10 5 1
n 5 6 (6th row) 1 6 15 20 15 6 1
C
6 0
C
6 1
C
6 2
C
6 3
C
6 4
C
6 5
C
6 6
c The value of 6C2 is the third number in the 6th row of Pascal’s triangle, as
shown above. Therefore, 6C2 5 15. There are 15 combinations of representatives
for the convention.
✓ GUIDED PRACTICE for Example 4
6. WHAT IF? In Example 4, use Pascal’s triangle to find the number of

combinations of 2 members that can be chosen if the Model UN club
has 7 members.

BINOMIAL EXPANSIONS There is an important relationship between powers of
binomials and combinations. The numbers in Pascal’s triangle can be used to
find coefficients in binomial expansions. For example, the coefficients in the
expansion of (a 1 b)4 are the numbers of combinations in the row of Pascal’s
triangle for n 5 4:
(a 1 b)4 5 1a 4 1 4a3b 1 6a2b2 1 4ab3 1 1b4
C
4 0
C
4 1
C
4 2
C
4 3
C
4 4
This result is generalized in the binomial theorem.

Binomial Theorem
For any positive integer n, the binomial expansion of (a 1 b) n is:
(a 1 b) n 5 nC 0anb 0 1 nC1an 2 1b1 1 nC2an 2 2b2 1 . . . 1 nCna0bn
Notice that each term in the expansion of (a 1 b) n has the form nCr an 2 rbr
where r is an integer from 0 to n.
EXAMPLE 5 Expand a power of a binomial sum
Use the binomial theorem to write the binomial expansion.

(x2 1 y) 3 5 3C 0(x2)3y 0 1 3C1(x2)2y1 1 3C2(x2)1y 2 1 3C3(x2)0y 3
5 (1)(x6)(1) 1 (3)(x4)(y) 1 (3)(x2)( y 2) 1 (1)(1)( y 3)
5 x6 1 3x4y 1 3x2y 2 1 y 3
POWERS OF BINOMIAL DIFFERENCES To expand a power of a binomial difference,

you can rewrite the binomial as a sum. The resulting expansion will have terms
whose signs alternate between 1 and 2.
EXAMPLE 6 Expand a power of a binomial difference

AVOID ERRORS
When a binomial has Use the binomial theorem to write the binomial expansion.
a term or terms with a
coefficient other than (a 2 2b)4 5 [a 1 (22b)]4
1, the coefficients of
5 4C 0a 4(22b) 0 1 4C1a3(22b)1 1 4C2a2(22b)2 1 4C3a1(22b)3 1 4C4a0 (22b)4
the binomial expansion
are not the same as the
5 (1)(a 4)(1) 1 (4)(a3)(22b) 1 (6)(a2)(4b2) 1 (4)(a)(28b3) 1 (1)(1)(16b4)
corresponding row of
Pascal’s triangle. 5 a 4 2 8a3b 1 24a2b2 2 32ab3 1 16b4
✓ GUIDED PRACTICE for Examples 5 and 6

7. (x 1 3) 5 8. (a 1 2b)4 9. (2p 2 q)4 10. (5 2 2y) 3

EXAMPLE 7 Find a coefficient in an expansion
Find the coefficient of x 4 in the expansion of (3x 1 2)10.
Solution
From the binomial theorem, you know the following:
(3x 1 2)10 5 10C 0 (3x)10 (2) 0 1 10C1(3x) 9 (2)1 1 . . . 1 10C10 (3x) 0 (2)10
Each term in the expansion has the form 10Cr (3x)10 2 r (2) r. The term containing x4
occurs when r 5 6:
C (3x)4(2) 6 5 (210)(81x4)(64) 5 1,088,640x4

10 6
c The coefficient of x4 is 1,088,640.
11. Find the coefficient of x5 in the expansion of (x 2 3)7.

12. Find the coefficient of x 3 in the expansion of (2x 1 5) 8.
6.1 EXERCISES HOMEWORK

KEY
5 See WORKED-OUT SOLUTIONS
Exs. 17, 29, and 49
★ 5 STANDARDIZED TEST PRACTICE
Exs. 2, 35, 40, 41, and 52
SKILL PRACTICE
1. VOCABULARY Copy and complete: The binomial expansion of (a 1 b) n is
given by the ? .
2. ★ WRITING Explain the difference between permutations and combinations.
EXAMPLES COMBINATIONS Find the number of combinations.

1, 2, and 3
3. C
5 2
4. C
10 3
5. C
9 6
6. C
8 2
for Exs. 3–18
7. C
11 11
8. C
12 4
9. 7C 5 10. C
14 6
ERROR ANALYSIS Describe and correct the error in finding the number of
combinations.
11. 12.
6!
C 5 }}}} 720 5 30
5 }} 8! 5 40,320 5 6720
C 5 }}
6 2 8 3 }}}}
(6 2 2)! 24 3! 6
CARD HANDS Find the number of possible 5-card hands that contain the cards
specified. The cards are taken from a standard 52-card deck.
13. 5 face cards (kings, queens, or jacks) 14. 4 kings and 1 other card
15. 1 ace and 4 cards that are not aces 16. 5 hearts or 5 diamonds
17. At most 1 queen 18. At least 1 spade

EXAMPLE 4 19. USING PATTERNS Copy Pascal’s triangle and add rows for
for Exs. 19–23 n 5 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10.
PASCAL’S TRIANGLE Use the rows of Pascal’s triangle from Exercise 19 to write
the binomial expansion.
20. (x 1 3) 6 21. (y 2 3z)10 22. (a 1 b2)8 23. (2s 2 t 4)7
EXAMPLES BINOMIAL THEOREM Use the binomial theorem to write the binomial expansion.
5 and 6
24. (x 1 2) 3 25. (c 2 4) 5 26. (a 1 3b)4 27. (4p 2 q) 6
for Exs. 24–31
28. (w 3 2 3)4 29. (2s4 1 5) 5 30. (3u 1 v 2)6 31. (x 3 2 y 2)4
EXAMPLE 7 32. Find the coefficient of x5 in the expansion of (x 2 2)10.

for Exs. 32–35
33. Find the coefficient of x3 in the expansion of (3x 1 2) 5.
34. Find the coefficient of x6 in the expansion of (x2 2 3) 8.
35. ★ MULTIPLE CHOICE Which is the coefficient of x4 in the expansion of (x 2 3)7?

A 2945 B 235 C 227 D 2835
PASCAL’S TRIANGLE In Exercises 36 and 37, use the diagrams shown.
36. What is the sum of the numbers in 37. Describe the pattern formed by the
each of rows 024 of Pascal’s triangle? sums of the numbers along the diagonal
What is the sum in row n? segments of Pascal’s triangle.
Row 0
Row 1
Row 2
Row 3
Row 4
REASONING In Exercises 38 and 39, decide whether the problem requires

combinations or permutations to find the answer. Then solve the problem.
38. NEWSPAPER Your school newspaper has an editor-in-chief and an assistant
editor-in-chief. The staff of the newspaper has 12 students. In how many ways
can students be chosen for these two positions?
39. STUDENT COUNCIL Five representatives from a senior class of 280 students
are to be chosen for the student council. In how many ways can students be
chosen to represent the senior class on the student council?
40. ★ MULTIPLE CHOICE A relay race has a team of 4 runners who run different
parts of the race. There are 20 students on your track squad. In how many
ways can the coach select students to compete on the relay team?
A 4845 B 40,000 C 116,280 D 160,000
41. ★ SHORT RESPONSE Explain how the formula for nCn suggests the definition
0! 5 1.
CHALLENGE Verify the identity. Justify each of your steps.
42. C 51
n 0
43. C 51
n n
44. C p rCm 5 nCm p n 2 mCr 2 m
n r
45. C 5 nP1
n 1
46. C 5 nCn 2 r
n r
47. n11 r
C 5 nCr 1 nCr 2 1

PROBLEM SOLVING
EXAMPLES 48. MUSIC You want to purchase 3 CDs from an CDs
1, 2, and 3 online collection that contains the types of music
for Exs. 48–50 shown at the right. You want each CD to contain Contemporary Classical
a different type of music such that 2 CDs are Blues Opera
different types of contemporary music and 1 CD Country Concerto
is a type of classical music. How many different Jazz Symphony
sets of music types can you choose?
Rap
Rock & Roll
49. FLOWERS You are buying a bouquet. The florist has 18 types of flowers that
you can use to make the bouquet. You want to use exactly 3 types of flowers.
How many different combinations of flower types can you use in your
bouquet?
50. ARCADE GAMES An arcade has 20 different arcade games. You want to play
at least 14 of them. How many different combinations of arcade games can
you play?
51. MULTI-STEP PROBLEM A televised singing competition picks a winner

from 20 original contestants over the course of five episodes. During each
of the first, second, and third episodes, 5 singers are eliminated by the
end of the episode. The fourth episode eliminates 2 more singers, and the
winner is selected at the end of the fifth episode.
a. How many combinations of 5 singers out of the original 20 can be
eliminated during the first episode?
b. How many combinations of 5 singers out of the 15 singers who started
the second episode can be eliminated during the second episode?
c. How many combinations of singers can be eliminated during the third
episode? during the fourth episode? during the fifth episode?
d. Find the total number of ways in which the 20 original contestants can be
eliminated to produce a winner.
52. ★ EXTENDED RESPONSE A group of 15 high school students is volunteering

at a local fire station. Of these students, 5 will be assigned to wash fire
trucks, 7 will be assigned to repaint the station’s interior, and 3 will be
assigned to do maintenance on the station’s exterior.
a. Calculate One way to count the number of possible job
assignments is to find the number of permutations
of 5 W’s (for “wash”), 7 R’s (for “repainting”), and 3
M’s (for “maintenance”). Use this method to write
the number of possible job assignments first as an
expression involving factorials and then as a number.
b. Calculate Another way to count the number of possible
job assignments is to first choose the 5 W’s, then choose
the 7 R’s, and then choose the 3 M’s. Use this method to
write the number of possible job assignments first as an
expression involving factorials and then as a number.
AP Images/Marc Lester
c. Analyze Compare your results from parts (a) and (b).

Explain why they make sense. Volunteers in Aniak, Alaska
5 See WORKED-OUT SOLUTIONS ★ 5 STANDARDIZED

384 in Student Resources TEST PRACTICE
53. CHALLENGE A polygon is convex if no line that contains diagonal
a side of the polygon contains a point in the interior of
the polygon. Consider a convex polygon with n sides.
a. Use the combinations formula to write an expression
for the number of line segments that join pairs of
vertices on an n-sided polygon. vertex
b. Use your result from part (a) to write a formula for the
number of diagonals of an n-sided convex polygon.
See EXTRA PRACTICE in Student Resources ONLINE QUIZ at my.hrw.com 385

Investigating
Algebra ACTIVITY Use before Construct and Interpret
Binomial Distributions
Use a Simulation to Test

an Assumption Use appropriate tools
strategically.
M AT E R I A L S • coins • graphing calculator
QUESTION How do you determine whether a coin is fair?
How do you know if a coin is “fair”? That is, when you fl ip it, how do you
know a coin is equally likely to land heads or tails?
You can fl ip an actual coin many times to help you decide whether you think
it’s fair. But what kinds of seemingly “unusual” outcomes might occur even
with a fair coin? How do you know what you can expect?
In this activity, you will perform physical experiments with a coin and also
use simulation with a graphing calculator to model fl ipping a coin. The
simulation lets you quickly repeat an event with two equally likely outcomes
to compare with results that you might get from an actual coin.
EXPLORE 1 Perform an experiment
A friend gives you a coin. You flip it 4 times, and you get tails all 4 times.
Would you feel confident in concluding that the coin is not fair?
STEP 1 Flip coins

Working in pairs, flip a coin 4 times. Repeat this experiment a total of 10 times,
so that you have 10 trials of 4 flips. Record your results in a table like the one
shown. Count the number of trials that fall into each of these categories:
4 heads, 3 heads and 1 tails, 2 heads and 2 tails, 1 heads and 3 tails, 4 tails.
Flip 1 Flip 2 Flip 3 Flip 4
Trial 1 ? ? ? ?
Trial 2 ? ? ? ?
STEP 2 Display results 50

40
Collect all of the data generated by the pairs of students in 40
your class. Combine the outcomes for all of the trials, and 30
Trials
25
then display the class data using a bar graph set up like the 19
20
one at the right.
10
10 6
0
ls
ls
ds
ils
ls
ai
ai
ai
ta
ea
STEP 3 Analyze results

4t
3t
1t
s2
4h
ds
ds
ea
ea
ea
What outcome or outcomes occurred the most frequently? How

1h
2h
3h
many times did 4 heads or 4 tails occur? Would you be reasonably

certain concluding that the coin your friend gave you is not fair?
Explain.
CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06IAa.indd 386 5/11/11 2:50:07 PM

EXPLORE 2 Perform a simulation of an experiment
A friend gives you a coin. You flip it 7 times, and you get tails all 7 times.
Would you feel confident in concluding that the coin is not fair?
STEP 1 Generate data

For the simulation, let 0 represent fl ipping heads and let 1
represent fl ipping tails. On a graphing calculator, press the j#V: Vs]8Z8n^
qqq/qZqZqqqZq0
key, select the “PRB” menu, and choose “randInt(.”
Perform the keystrokes for “randInt(0, 1, 7)” and press .
The calculator will produce a list of seven digits (0 or 1) at
random, as shown, where the outcomes 0 and 1 are equally
likely to occur.
Press 20 times to obtain 20 lists of 7 “coin fl ips.” Keep a tally to

record the number of these 20 trials whose results fall into each of these
categories: 7 heads, 6 heads and 1 tail, 5 heads and 2 tails, ..., 1 heads and
6 tails, 7 tails.
STEP 2 Display results

Collect all of the data generated by the pairs in your class. Combine the
outcomes for all of the trials and display the class data using a bar graph
similar to the one used in Explore 1. It will have 8 bars.
STEP 3 Analyze results

What outcome or outcomes occurred the most? How many times did
7 heads or 7 tails occur? Would you be reasonably certain concluding
that the coin your friend gave you is not fair? Explain.
DR AW CONCLUSIONS Use your observations to complete these exercises
1. In Explore 1, find the theoretical probability of flipping 4 tails in a row.

Does this affect your confidence in the coin’s fairness or unfairness?
Explain.
2. In Explore 2, find the theoretical probability of flipping 7 tails in a row.
Does this affect your confidence in the coin’s fairness or unfairness?
Explain.
3. A simulation of flipping a coin 5 times in a row is performed 200 times.
The results of the simulation are shown in the table below.
5 heads 4 heads 3 heads 2 heads 1 heads 0 heads

0 tails 1 tails 2 tails 3 tails 4 tails 5 tails
Outcomes 1 5 27 61 72 34
a. Make a bar graph of the data.

b. Do you think that the simulation represents a coin that is fair or not
fair? Explain.
6.2 Construct and Interpret Binomial Distributions 387

6.2 Construct and Interpret
Binomial Distributions
Before You found probabilities of events.
Now You will study probability distributions.
Why? So you can describe interest in museums, as in Ex. 46.
Key Vocabulary A random variable is a variable whose value is determined by the outcomes
• random variable of a random event. For example, when you roll a six-sided die, you can define
• probability a random variable X that represents the number showing on the die. So, the
distribution possible values of X are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. For every random variable, a
• binomial probability distribution can be defined.
distribution
• binomial
experiment KEY CONCEPT For Your Notebook
• symmetric
• skewed
Probability Distributions
A probability distribution Probability Distribution for Rolling a Die
is a function that gives the
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
probability of each possible
value of a random variable. The 1 1 1 1 1 1
P(X) } } } } } }
sum of all the probabilities in 6 6 6 6 6 6
CC.9-12.S.MD.3 (+) Develop a probability distribution must
a probability distribution for
a random variable defined
equal 1.
for a sample space in which
theoretical probabilities can be
calculated; find the expected
value.*
EXAMPLE 1 Construct a probability distribution
Let X be a random variable that represents the sum when two six-sided
dice are rolled. Make a table and a histogram showing the probability
distribution for X.
REVIEW COMPOUND Solution 1

EVENTS 6
The possible values of
Probability
Recall that there are 1

X are the integers from
36 possible outcomes 9
2 to 12. The table shows
when rolling two six- 1
sided dice. These are
how many outcomes of
18
listed in Example 4. rolling two dice produce
each value of X. Divide the 0
number of outcomes for 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
X by 36 to find P(X). Sum of two dice
X (sum) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Outcomes 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
AP Images/John Russell
1 1 1 1 5 1 5 1 1 1 1
P(X) } } } } } } } } } } }
36 18 12 9 36 6 36 9 12 18 36

EXAMPLE 2 Interpret a probability distribution
Use the probability distribution in Example 1 to answer each question.
a. What is the most likely sum when rolling two six-sided dice?
b. What is the probability that the sum of the two dice is at least 10?
Solution
a. The most likely sum when rolling two six-sided dice is the value of X
for which P(X) is greatest. This probability is greatest for X 5 7. So, the
most likely sum when rolling the two dice is 7.
b. The probability that the sum of the two dice is at least 10 is:
P(X ≥ 10) 5 P(X 5 10) 1 P(X 5 11) 1 P(X 5 12)
3 1 2 1 1
5} } }
36 36 36
6
5}
36
1
5}
6
ø 0.167
A tetrahedral die has four sides numbered 1 through 4. Let X be a random

variable that represents the sum when two such dice are rolled.
1. Make a table and a histogram showing the probability distribution for X.
2. What is the most likely sum when rolling the two dice? What is the
probability that the sum of the two dice is at most 3?
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS One type of probability distribution is a binomial

distribution. A binomial distribution shows the probabilities of the outcomes of
a binomial experiment.

Binomial Experiments
A binomial experiment meets the following conditions:
• There are n independent trials.
• Each trial has only two possible outcomes: success and failure.
• The probability of success is the same for each trial. This probability is
denoted by p. The probability of failure is given by 1 2 p.
For a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly k successes in n trials is:
P(k successes) 5 nCk p k (1 2 p) n 2 k

EXAMPLE 3 Construct a binomial distribution
SPORTS SURVEYS According to a survey, about 41% of U.S. households have a

soccer ball. Suppose you ask 6 randomly chosen U.S. households whether they
have a soccer ball. Draw a histogram of the binomial distribution for your survey.
Solution
The probability that a randomly selected household has a soccer ball is p 5 0.41.
Because you survey 6 households, n 5 6.
AVOID ERRORS
P(k 5 0) 5 6C 0 (0.41) 0 (0.59) 6 ø 0.042
You can check your
calculations for a P(k 5 1) 5 6C1 (0.41)1 (0.59) 5 ø 0.176 0.30
Probability
binomial distribution
by adding all the P(k 5 2) 5 6C2(0.41)2(0.59)4 ø 0.306 0.20
probabilities. The sum P(k 5 3) 5 6C3(0.41)3(0.59)3 ø 0.283 0.10
should always be 1.
4 2
P(k 5 4) 5 6C4(0.41) (0.59) ø 0.148
0
P(k 5 5) 5 6C5(0.41) 5(0.59)1 ø 0.041 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Number of households that
P(k 5 6) 5 6C 6 (0.41) 6 (0.59) 0 ø 0.005 have a soccer ball
A histogram of the distribution is shown.
"MHFCSB at my.hrw.com
EXAMPLE 4 Interpret a binomial distribution

Use the binomial distribution in Example 3 to answer each question.
a. What is the most likely outcome of the survey?
b. What is the probability that at most 2 households have a soccer ball?
Solution
a. The most likely outcome of the survey is the value of k for which P(k) is
greatest. This probability is greatest for k 5 2. So, the most likely outcome
is that 2 of the 6 households have a soccer ball.
b. The probability that at most 2 households have a soccer ball is:
P(k ≤ 2) 5 P(k 5 2) 1 P(k 5 1) 1 P(k 5 0)
ø 0.306 1 0.176 1 0.042
ø 0.524
c So, the probability is about 52%.
In Sweden, 61% of households have a soccer ball. Suppose you ask 6 randomly
chosen Swedish households whether they have a soccer ball.
3. Draw a histogram showing the binomial distribution for your survey.
4. What is the most likely outcome of your survey? What is the probability that
at most 2 households you survey have a soccer ball?

CLASSIFY SYMMETRIC AND SKEWED DISTRIBUTIONS Suppose a probability distribution
DISTRIBUTIONS is represented by a histogram. The distribution is symmetric if you can draw a
Note that the vertical line that divides the histogram into two parts that are mirror images. A
distribution in distribution that is not symmetric is called skewed.
Example 1 is symmetric,
while the distribution in
Example 3 is skewed. E X A M P L E 5 Classify distributions as symmetric or skewed
Describe the shape of the binomial distribution that shows the
probability of exactly k successes in 8 trials if (a) p 5 0.5 and (b) p 5 0.9.
Solution
a. 0.30 b.
0.40
Probability
Probability
0.20
0.20
0.10
0
0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Number of successes
Number of successes
Symmetric; the left half is a Skewed; the distribution is not
mirror image of the right half. symmetric about any vertical line.
5. A binomial experiment consists of 5 trials with probability p of success on

each trial. Describe the shape of the binomial distribution that shows the
probability of exactly k successes if (a) p 5 0.4 and (b) p 5 0.5.

KEY
Exs. 5, 21, and 45
Exs. 2, 9, 32, 39, and 48
5 MULTIPLE REPRESENTATIONS
Ex. 47
SKILL PRACTICE
1. VOCABULARY Copy and complete: A probability distribution represented by
a histogram is ? if you can draw a vertical line dividing the histogram into
two parts that are mirror images.
2. ★ WRITING Explain the difference between a binomial experiment and a

binomial distribution.
EXAMPLE 1 CONSTRUCTING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS Make a table and a histogram

for Exs. 3–5 showing the probability distribution for the random variable.
3. X 5 the number on a table tennis ball randomly chosen from a bag that
contains 5 balls labeled “1,” 3 balls labeled “2,” and 2 balls labeled “3.”
4. W 5 1 if a randomly chosen letter is A, E, I, O, or U and 2 otherwise.
5. N 5 the number of digits in a random integer from 0 through 999.

EXAMPLE 2 INTERPRETING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS In Exercises 6−9,
0.40
Probability
for Exs. 6–9 use the given histogram of a probability distribution for a
random variable X.
0.20
6. What is the probability that X is equal to 1?
0
7. What is the most likely value for X? 1 2 3 4
8. What is the probability that X is odd? Value of X
9. ★ MULTIPLE CHOICE What is the probability that X is at least 3?

A 0.2 B 0.4 C 0.6 D 0.8
EXAMPLES CALCULATING PROBABILITIES Calculate the probability of tossing a coin

3 and 4 20 times and getting the given number of heads.
for Exs. 10–32
10. 1 11. 2 12. 4 13. 6
14. 9 15. 12 16. 15 17. 18
BINOMIAL PROBABILITIES Calculate the probability of randomly guessing the

given number of correct answers on a 30-question multiple choice exam that
has choices A, B, C, and D for each question.
18. 0 19. 2 20. 6 21. 11
22. 15 23. 21 24. 26 25. 30
ERROR ANALYSIS Describe and correct the error in calculating the probability
of rolling a 1 exactly 3 times in 5 rolls of a six-sided die.
26. 27.
1 523 } 3 3 523
62
P(k 5 3) 5 5C3 } 1
5
6 1 2 1
P(k 5 3) 5 1 }
6 2 1 }56 2
ø 0.161 ø 0.003
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS Calculate the probability of k successes for a

binomial experiment consisting of n trials with probability p of success on
each trial.
28. k ≤ 3, n 5 7, p 5 0.3 29. k ≥ 5, n 5 8, p 5 0.6
30. k ≤ 2, n 5 5, p 5 0.12 31. k ≥ 10, n 5 15, p 5 0.75
32. ★ MULTIPLE CHOICE You perform a binomial experiment consisting of

10 trials with a probability of success of 36% on each trial. What is the most
likely number of successes?
A 3 B 4 C 6 D 7
EXAMPLE 5 HISTOGRAMS A binomial experiment consists of n trials with probability p

for Exs. 33–38 of success on each trial. Draw a histogram of the binomial distribution that
shows the probability of exactly k successes. Describe the distribution as either
symmetric or skewed. Then find the most likely number of successes.
33. n 5 3, p 5 0.3 34. n 5 6, p 5 0.5 35. n 5 4, p 5 0.16
36. n 5 7, p 5 0.85 37. n 5 8, p 5 0.025 38. n 5 12, p 5 0.5
39. ★ OPEN-ENDED MATH Construct a symmetric probability distribution for

a random variable X and a skewed probability distribution for a random
variable Y. Make a table and a histogram for each distribution.
5 See WORKED-OUT SOLUTIONS ★ 5 STANDARDIZED 5 MULTIPLE

392 in Student Resources TEST PRACTICE REPRESENTATIONS
In Exercises 40−42, you will derive the binomial probability formula.
Consider a binomial experiment with n trials and probability p of success
on each trial.
40. For any particular sequence of k successes and n 2 k failures, what is the
probability that the sequence occurs? Explain.
41. How many sequences of k successes and n 2 k failures are there? Explain.
42. CHALLENGE Use your results from Exercises 40 and 41 to justify the binomial
probability formula.
PROBLEM SOLVING
EXAMPLES 43. HEALTH About 1% of people are allergic to bee stings. What is the probability
3 and 4 that exactly 1 person in a class of 25 is allergic to bee stings?
for Exs. 43–46
44. BASKETBALL Predrag Stojakovic of the Sacramento Kings made 92.7% of

his free throw attempts in the 2003–2004 NBA regular season. What is the
probability that he will make exactly 10 of his next 15 free throw attempts?
45. BLOOD TYPE The chart shows the distribution of blood types (O, A, B, AB)
and Rh factor (1 or 2) for human blood. If, at random, 10 people donate blood
to a blood bank during a certain hour, find the probability of each event.
Percent of Population by Blood Type
O1 O2 A1 A2 B1 B2 AB1 AB2
37% 6% 34% 6% 10% 2% 4% 1%
a. Exactly 5 of the people are type A1. b. Exactly 2 of the people are Rh2.
c. At most 2 of the people are type O. d. At least 5 of the people are Rh1.
46. FINE ARTS A survey states that 35% of people in the United States visited
an art museum in a certain year. You randomly select 10 U.S. citizens.
a. Draw a histogram showing the binomial distribution of the number of
people who visited an art museum.
b. What is the probability that at most 4 people visited an art museum?
47. MULTIPLE REPRESENTATIONS An average of 7 gopher holes

appear on the farm shown each week. Let X represent how many
of the 7 gopher holes appear in the carrot patch. Assume that a
gopher hole has an equal chance of appearing at any point on
the farm.
a. Calculating Probabilities Find P(X) for X 5 0, 1, 2, . . . , 7. 0.8 mi
b. Making a Table Make a table showing the probability
distribution for X. 0.5 mi
c. Making a Histogram Make a histogram showing the
probability distribution for X.
0.3 mi 0.3 mi

48. ★ EXTENDED RESPONSE Assume that having a male child and having a
female child are independent events and that the probability of each is 0.5.
a. A couple has 4 male children. Evaluate the validity of this statement:
“The first 4 kids were all boys, so the next one will probably be a girl.”
b. What is the probability of having 4 male children and then a female child?
c. Let X be a random variable that represents the number of children
a couple already has when they have their first female child. Draw a
histogram of the distribution of P(X) for 0 ≤ X ≤ 10 and describe its shape.
49. CHALLENGE An entertainment system has n speakers. Each speaker will

function properly with probability p, independent of whether the other
speakers are functioning. The system will operate effectively if at least 50%
of its speakers are functioning. For what values of p is a 5-speaker system
more likely to operate than a 3-speaker system?
QUIZ
Find the number of combinations.
1. C
8 6
2. 7C4 3. C
9 0
4. C
12 11

5. (x 1 5) 5 6. (2s 2 3) 6 7. (3u 1 v)4 8. (2x3 2 3y) 5
9. Find the coefficient of x 3 in the expansion of (x 1 2) 9.
10. MENU CHOICES A pizza parlor runs a special where you can buy a large
pizza with 1 cheese, 1 vegetable, and 2 meats for $12. You have a choice of 5
cheeses, 10 vegetables, and 6 meats. How many different variations of the
pizza special are possible?
Calculate the probability of getting the given number of 6’s when rolling a
six-sided die 10 times.
11. 0 12. 1 13. 4 14. 8
A binomial experiment consists of n trials with probability p of success on each

trial. Draw a histogram of the binomial distribution that shows the probability
of exactly k successes.
15. n 5 5, p 5 0.2 16. n 5 8, p 5 0.5 17. n 5 6, p 5 0.72
394 See EXTRA PRACTICE in Student Resources ONLINE QUIZ at my.hrw.com

Using ALTERNATIVE METHODS
LESSON 6.2
Another Way to Solve Examples 3
MULTIPLE REPRESENTATIONS In Example 3, you constructed a binomial

distribution. Some calculators have a binomial probability distribution function
Make sense of problems and
that you can use to calculate binomial probabilities. You can then use the
persevere in solving them. calculator to draw a histogram of the distribution.
P RO B L E M 1 SPORTS SURVEYS According to a survey, about 41% of U.S. households have

a soccer ball. Suppose you ask 6 randomly chosen U.S. households whether
they have a soccer ball. Draw a histogram of the binomial distribution for
your survey.
METHOD
STEP 1 Enter values of k. Let STEP 2 Find values of P(k). Enter STEP 3 Draw histogram. Set up
p = 0.41 be the probability the binomial probability the histogram to use
that a randomly selected command to generate the numbers in list L1 as
household has a soccer P(k) for all seven k-values. x-values and the numbers
ball. Enter the k-values 0 Store the results in list L 2. in list L 2 as frequencies.
through 6 into list L1 on Draw the histogram in a
the graphing calculator. suitable viewing window.
Z v t ,NVYU\:D]o8`FZ^
MMMMM MMMMM /`FvZ@Ettoq`Z```
Z Vkqv
v /`FvZ@Ettoq`Z```
t
F
Z]ZÂ
PRACTICE
A binomial experiment consists of n trials with probability p of success on

each trial. Use a graphing calculator to draw a histogram of the binomial
distribution that shows the probability of exactly k successes. Then find the
most likely number of successes.
1. n 5 12, p 5 0.29 2. n 5 14, p 5 0.58 3. n 5 15, p 5 0.805
4. WHAT IF? In the example, how do your histogram and the most likely
number of adults change if you survey 14 adults at random?
Using Alternative Methods 395
CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06PW.indd 395 5/11/11 2:54:05 PM

MIXED REVIEW of Problem Solving Make sense of problems and
persevere in solving them.
1. MULTI-STEP PROBLEM About 71% of 4. GRIDDED ANSWER You want to make a fruit
households in Alonso’s town have a pet. smoothie using 3 of the fruits listed. How many
Alonso is tasked with finding the probability different fruit smoothies can you make?
distribution for a survey of 7 random
households. Part of his calculation is given:
• Or an g
P(k = 3) = 7C3(0.71)3(0.29)4 < 0.089 e
• Ba n a n
a
a. Explain what P(k = 3) represents in this • Straw
be r
calculation. • Pineap r y
ple
• Cant e
b. Explain what 7C3 represents in loupe
• Water
this calculation. melon
• Kiwi
c. Explain what (0.71)3 represents in this • Peach
calculation.
d. Explain what (0.29)4 represents in this

calculation. 5. GRIDDED ANSWER A softball player gets a hit
in about 31% of her at-bats. You randomly select
2. MULTI-STEP PROBLEM According to a survey, 15 of the player’s at-bats. What is the most
62% of U.S. adults consider themselves sports likely number of hits the player will have in
fans. You randomly select 14 adults to survey. those at bats?
a. Draw a histogram of the binomial
distribution showing the probability that 6. SHORT RESPONSE You must take 18 elective
k adults consider themselves sports fans. courses to meet your graduation requirements
for college. There are 30 courses that you are
b. What is the most likely number of adults
interested in. Does finding the number of
who consider themselves sports fans?
possible course selections involve permutations
c. What is the probability that at least 7 adults or combinations? Explain. How many different
consider themselves sports fans? course selections are possible?
3. SHORT RESPONSE A community theater is 7. OPEN-ENDED Give an example of a real-life

presenting a series of 15 operas this summer. problem for which the answer is the product of
Melinda wants to attend at least 4 of them. two combinations. Provide a solution.
Write a subtractive expression using notation
representing the number of different 8. GRIDDED ANSWER An ice cream shop offers
combinations of operas she can attend, and a choice of 31 flavors. How many different ice
then find that number. cream cones can be made with three scoops of
ice cream if each scoop is a different flavor and
the order of the scoops is not important? ©Big Cheese Photo/Jupiterimages
CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06MRa.indd 396 5/11/11 2:55:05 PM

Investigating
Algebra ACTIVITY Use before Use Normal
Distributions
Investigate the Shapes of

Data Distributions Use appropriate tools
strategically.
M AT E R I A L S • graph paper • graphing calculator
QUESTION How do you describe and interpret data distributions

with various shapes?
A histogram of data can have different shapes. It may be symmetrical or

not, may be bell-shaped or not, or may have a long “tail” in one direction.
It may have no recognizable shape. There are recurring patterns in data
distributions, however, that let you predict probabilities involving data values.
EXPLORE 1 Simulate rolling a die repeatedly until you get a 5
STEP 1 Perform a simulation STEP 2 Make a plot STEP 3 Observe and compare
Press , then select In Step 1, a “5” first appears in Describe your plot. Include
“PRB,” then “randInt(.” The the 2nd trial. It takes 4 more the following.
command randInt(1, 6) gives trials to get the next “5.” These
• What is the general shape?
a random integer from 1 to 6 two results are shown below.
Make a similar plot for your • Is it symmetric?
when you press .
The screen shows 6 results. data. Plot 40 or 50 results. • Does it have a clear
“middle?”
Number of trials to get a 5
Compare your plot with those
j#V: Vs]Z8o^ of other groups. Were their
v
E results similar?
o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
F What was the greatest number
Z of rolls required by any single
E
group to get a 5?
EXPLORE 2 Simulate rolling a die 100 times
STEP 1 Perform a simulation STEP 2 Make a histogram STEP 3 Observe and compare
To simulate 100 rolls of a die, Press [Stat Plot], turn on Describe your plot and compare
you can perform all 100 “rolls” Plot1, and select the histogram plots as you did in Step 3 above.
at once and store the results in icon. Set “Xlist” to L1 and You can very quickly make a
a list by entering the command “Freq” to 1. Enter the window new plot:
below. below, then press . Press [QUIT] to return to
randInt(1, 6, 100) the home screen. Press
[L1] to produce a new list. Then
q UNVAÈ press . Do this a few
Pressing displays q U#{AoÈ
q k4ZAZ times. How does the graph
the list on the home screen q!UNVAME change?
and enters it in the Statistics q!U#{AvE
q!k4ZAE
memory. q j?kAZ
6.3 Use Normal Distributions 397
CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06IAb.indd 397 5/11/11 2:55:44 PM

EXPLORE 3 Simulate rolling 10 dice and counting how many display “even results”
STEP 1 Perform a simulation STEP 2 Make a plot STEP 3 Observe and compare
Enter randInt(1, 6, 10) and press Press , count the Describe your plot and
to simulate rolling number of even numbers in the compare plots as you did in
10 dice. Below you can see three new list, and record it in a plot Explore 1 and 2.
“dice” that display even results. like the one below, which shows
How does the shape of this plot
(To see the last three results in results for 10 rolls of 10 dice.
compare with the shapes of the
the list, scroll to the right.) Repeat as many times as time
plots from Explore 1 and 2?
allows.
j#V: Vs]Z8o8Z^ Even numbers rolled

/tqoqFqEqoqEqEq```
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
EXPLORE 4 Combine data
STEP 1 Combine results from Explore 1 Combine the results of all groups to
make a class histogram. Compare your plot and the class histogram.
STEP 2 Simulate combining results from Explore 2 To simulate combining

results from Explore 2 for 10 groups, repeat the first two steps of
Explore 2, but use the command randInt(1, 6, 999). (Note that 999 is
the largest number the calculator allows.) Also, change the viewing
window to Ymin 5 250, Ymax 5 250, and Yscl 5 50. Compare your
histogram and the class histogram.
STEP 3 Combine results from Explore 3 Combine the results of all groups to
make a class histogram. Compare your plot and the class histogram.
1. Did the graphs in each Explore have similar or very different shapes?
Explain.
2. For each Explore, how did combining the results of the groups into one
graph change the shapes? Predict what you think the shape of each
histogram might be if you could repeat each simulation thousands
of times.
3. Symmetric, bell-shaped data distributions, such as the one at the
right, occur frequently in real world models. This curve has special
properties that make it extremely useful for finding probabilities.
Which of the Explore results most closely resembles a curve with
this shape?

6.3 Use Normal
Distributions
Before You interpreted probability distributions.
Now You will study normal distributions.
Why? So you can model animal populations, as in Example 3.
Key Vocabulary You have studied probability distributions. One type of probability distribution is
• normal distribution a normal distribution. A normal distribution is modeled by a bell-shaped curve
• normal curve called a normal curve that is symmetric about the mean.
• standard normal
distribution
• z-score
Areas Under a Normal Curve
A normal distribution with mean }
x and standard deviation s has the
CC.9-12.S.ID.4 Use the mean following properties:
and standard deviation of a
data set to fit it to a normal • The total area under the related normal curve is 1.
distribution and to estimate
population percentages. • About 68% of the area lies within 1 standard deviation of the mean.
Recognize that there are data
sets for which such a procedure • About 95% of the area lies within 2 standard deviations of the mean.
is not appropriate. Use
calculators, spreadsheets, and • About 99.7% of the area lies within 3 standard deviations of the mean.
tables to estimate areas under
the normal curve.* 34% 34%
INTERPRET 68%
GRAPHS 95% 13.5% 13.5%
An area under a normal 2.35% 2.35%
99.7% 0.15% 0.15%
curve can be interpreted
either as a percentage
x1 S
x2 S
2S
x1 S
3S
S
x1 S
x2 S
2S
x1 S
3S
S
x
x
3
2
x1
2
x2
x1
x2
x2
of the data values in

x2
the distribution or as a
probability.
EXAMPLE 1 Find a normal probability

A normal distribution has mean }
x and standard deviation s. For a
randomly selected x-value from the distribution, find P(}
x 2 2s ≤ x ≤ }
x ).
Solution
34%
The probability that a randomly selected
x-value lies between between }x 2 2s and }
x
is the shaded area under the normal curve 13.5%
shown.
P( }
x 2 2s ≤ x ≤ }
x ) 5 0.135 1 0.34 5 0.475
©Photodisc/Getty Images
x1 S
x2 S
2S
x1 S
3S
S
x
3
2
x1
x2
x2
"MHFCSB at my.hrw.com

EXAMPLE 2 Interpret normally distributed data
READING HEALTH The blood cholesterol readings for a group of women are normally
The abbreviation distributed with a mean of 172 mg/dl and a standard deviation of 14 mg/dl.
“mg/dl” stands for
a. About what percent of the women have readings between 158 and 186?
“milligrams per
deciliter.” b. Readings less than 158 are considered desirable. About what percent of
the readings are desirable?
USE PERCENTILES Solution

When n% of the data
a. The readings of 158 and 186 b. A reading of 158 is one
are less than or equal
represent one standard deviation standard deviation to the
to a certain value,
on either side of the mean, as left of the mean, as shown.
that value is called the
nth percentile. Part (b)
shown below. So, 68% of the So, the percent of readings
of Example 2 shows women have readings between that are desirable is
that 158 is the 16th 158 and 186. 0.15% 1 2.35% 1 13.5%, or 16%.
percentile. Similarly, 172
is the 50th percentile. 68%
16%
130 144 158 172 186 200 214 130 144 158 172 186 200 214
Cholesterol readings Cholesterol readings
A normal distribution has mean } x and standard deviation s. Find the

indicated probability for a randomly selected x-value from the distribution.
1. P(x ≤ }
x) 2. P(x ≥ }
x) 3. P( }
x≤x≤}
x 1 2s)
4. P(}
x2s≤x≤}
x) 5. P(x ≤ }
x 2 3s) 6. P(x ≥ }
x 1 s)
7. WHAT IF? In Example 2, what percent of the women have readings between
172 and 200?
STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION The standard normal distribution is the

normal distribution with mean 0 and standard deviation 1. The formula below
can be used to transform x-values from a normal distribution with mean }x and
standard deviation s into z-values having a standard normal distribution.
2}
Formula: z 5 x} x
s
Subtract the mean from the

given x-value, then divide by
z5 3
z5 2
1
2
3
0
2
2
2
the standard deviation.

z5
z5
z5
z5
z5
The z-value for a particular x-value is called the z-score for the x-value and is the
number of standard deviations the x-value lies above or below the mean } x.

STANDARD NORMAL TABLE If z is a randomly selected value from a standard
normal distribution, you can use the table below to find the probability that
z is less than or equal to some given value. For example, the table shows that
P(z ≤ 20.4) 5 0.3446. You can find the value of P(z ≤ 20.4) in the table by finding
the value where row 20 and column .4 intersect.
Standard Normal Table
z .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9
READING 23 .0013 .0010 .0007 .0005 .0003 .0002 .0002 .0001 .0001 .00001
In the table, the value 22 .0228 .0179 .0139 .0107 .0082 .0062 .0047 .0035 .0026 .0019
.00001 means “slightly 21 .1587 .1357 .1151 .0968 .0808 .0668 .0548 .0446 .0359 .0287
more than 0” and the 20 .5000 .4602 .4207 .3821 .3446 .3085 .2743 .2420 .2119 .1841
value 1.00002 means 0 .5000 .5398 .5793 .6179 .6554 .6915 .7257 .7580 .7881 .8159
“slightly less than 1.” 1 .8413 .8643 .8849 .9032 .9192 .9332 .9452 .9554 .9641 .9713
2 .9772 .9821 .9861 .9893 .9918 .9938 .9953 .9965 .9974 .9981
3 .9987 .9990 .9993 .9995 .9997 .9998 .9998 .9999 .9999 1.00002
You can also use the standard normal table to find probabilities for any
normal distribution by first converting values from the distribution to z-scores.
EXAMPLE 3 Use a z-score and the standard normal table

BIOLOGY Scientists conducted aerial surveys of a
seal sanctuary and recorded the number x of seals
they observed during each survey. The numbers
of seals observed were normally distributed with
a mean of 73 seals and a standard deviation of
14.1 seals. Find the probability that at most 50 seals
were observed during a survey.
Solution
STEP 1 Find the z-score corresponding to an x-value of 50.
2}
z 5 x}x 5 50 2 73 ø 21.6
}
s 14.1
STEP 2 Use the table to find P(x ≤ 50) ø P(z ≤ 21.6).
The table shows that P(z ≤ 21.6) 5 0.0548. So, the probability that at
most 50 seals were observed during a survey is about 0.0548.
z .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9
23 .0013 .0010 .0007 .0005 .0003 .0002 .0002 .0001 .0001 .00001
22 .0228 .0179 .0139 .0107 .0082 .0062 .0047 .0035 .0026 .0019
21 .1587 .1357 .1151 .0968 .0808 .0668 .0548 .0446 .0359 .0287
20 .5000 .4602 .4207 .3821 .3446 .3085 .2743 .2420 .2119 .1841
0 .5000 .5398 .5793 .6179 .6554 .6915 .7257 .7580 .7881 .8159
8. WHAT IF? In Example 3, find the probability that at most 90 seals were
observed during a survey.
©Image Source/Corbis
9. REASONING Explain why it makes sense that P(z ≤ 0) 5 0.5.

KEY
Exs. 3, 11, and 33
Exs. 2, 17, 18, 28, and 35
SKILL PRACTICE
1. VOCABULARY Copy and complete: A(n) ? is a bell-shaped curve that is
symmetric about the mean.
2. ★ WRITING Describe how to use the standard normal table to find P(z ≤ 1.4).
EXAMPLE 1 FIND A NORMAL PROBABILITY A normal distribution has mean }

x and standard
for Exs. 3–10 deviation s. Find the indicated probability for a randomly selected x-value from
the distribution.
3. P(x ≤ }
x 2 s) 4. P(x ≥ }
x 1 2s) 5. P(x ≤ }
x 1 s)
6. P(x ≥ }
x 2 s) 7. P( }
x2s≤x≤}
x 1 s) 8. P( }
x 2 3s ≤ x ≤ }
x)
USING A NORMAL CURVE Give the percent of the area under the normal curve
represented by the shaded region.
9. 10.
S
x2 S
2S
x1 S
3S
3
2
x1
x2
x1
EXAMPLE 2 NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS A normal distribution has a mean of 33 and a
for Exs. 11–18 standard deviation of 4. Find the probability that a randomly selected x-value
from the distribution is in the given interval.
11. Between 29 and 37 12. Between 33 and 45 13. Between 21 and 41
14. At least 25 15. At least 29 16. At most 37
17. ★ MULTIPLE CHOICE A normal distribution has a mean of 84 and a standard

deviation of 5. What is the probability that a randomly selected x-value from
the distribution is between 74 and 94?
A 0.475 B 0.68 C 0.95 D 0.997
18. ★ MULTIPLE CHOICE A normal distribution has a mean of 51 and a standard

deviation of 3. What is the probability that a randomly selected x-value from
the distribution is at most 48?
A 0.025 B 0.16 C 0.84 D 0.975
EXAMPLE 3 STANDARD NORMAL TABLE A normal distribution has a mean of 64 and a

for Exs. 19–27 standard deviation of 7. Use the standard normal table to find the indicated
probability for a randomly selected x-value from the distribution.
19. P(x ≤ 68) 20. P(x ≤ 80) 21. P(x ≤ 45)
22. P(x ≤ 54) 23. P(x ≤ 64) 24. P(x ≥ 59)
25. P(x ≥ 75) 26. P(60 ≤ x ≤ 75) 27. P(45 ≤ x ≤ 65)

28. ★ WRITING When n% of the data are less than or equal to a certain value,
that value is called the nth percentile. For normally distributed data,
describe the value that represents the 84th percentile in terms of the mean
and standard deviation.
29. ERROR ANALYSIS In a study, the wheat

yields (in bushels) for several plots of 2}
z 5 x}x 5 3.8 2 4 5 20.8
}
land were normally distributed with s 0.25
a mean of 4 bushels and a standard From the standard normal table,
deviation of 0.25 bushel. Describe P(z ≥ 20.8) 5 0.2119. So, the
and correct the error in finding the probability that a plot yielded at
probability that a plot yielded at least least 3.8 bushels is 0.2119.
3.8 bushels.
30. CHALLENGE A normal curve is defined by an equation of this form:

1 x2{
x 2
y5 }1 e2 }2 1 }
s 2
}
sÏ 2 p
a. Graphing Calculator Graph three equations of the given form. The
equations should use the same mean but different standard deviations.
b. Reasoning Describe the effect of the standard deviation on the shape of a
normal curve.
PROBLEM SOLVING
EXAMPLES 31. BIOLOGY The illustration shows a housefly at several times its
2 and 3 actual size and indicates the fly’s wing length. A study found
for Exs. 31–34 that the wing lengths of houseflies are normally distributed
with a mean of about 4.6 millimeters and a standard
deviation of about 0.4 millimeter. What is the probability that
a randomly selected housefly has a wing length of at least
5 millimeters?
32. FIRE DEPARTMENT The time a fire department takes to arrive at the scene
of an emergency is normally distributed with a mean of 6 minutes and a
standard deviation of 1 minute.
a. What is the probability that the fire department takes at most 8 minutes
to arrive at the scene of an emergency?
b. What is the probability that the fire department takes between
4 minutes and 7 minutes to arrive at the scene of an emergency?
33. MULTI-STEP PROBLEM Boxes of cereal are filled by a machine. Tests of the
machine’s accuracy show that the amount of cereal in each box varies. The
weights are normally distributed with a mean of 20 ounces and a standard
deviation of 0.25 ounce.
a. Find the z-scores for weights of 19.4 ounces and 20.4 ounces.
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected cereal box weighs at
most 19.4 ounces?
c. What is the probability that a randomly selected cereal box weighs
between 19.4 ounces and 20.4 ounces? Explain your reasoning.

34. BOTANY The guayule plant, which grows in the southwestern
United States and in Mexico, is one of several plants that can be
used as a source of rubber. In a large group of guayule plants,
the heights of the plants are normally distributed with a mean
of 12 inches and a standard deviation of 2 inches.
a. What percent of the plants are taller than 16 inches?
b. What percent of the plants are at most 13 inches?
c. What percent of the plants are between 7 inches and
14 inches?
d. What percent of the plants are at least 3 inches taller than or
at least 3 inches shorter than the mean height? Guayule plants
35. ★ EXTENDED RESPONSE Lisa and Ann took different college entrance
tests. The scores on the test that Lisa took are normally distributed
with a mean of 20 points and a standard deviation of 4.2 points. The
scores on the test that Ann took are normally distributed with a mean
of 500 points and a standard deviation of 90 points. Lisa scored 30 on
her test, and Ann scored 610 on her test.
a. Calculate Find the z-score for Lisa’s test score.
b. Calculate Find the z-score for Ann’s test score.
c. Interpret Which student scored better on her college entrance test?
Explain your reasoning.
36. CHALLENGE According to a survey by the National Center for Health

Statistics, the heights of adult men in the United States are normally
distributed with a mean of 69 inches and a standard deviation of
2.75 inches.
a. If you randomly choose 3 adult men, what is the probability that all of
them are more than 6 feet tall?
b. What is the probability that 5 randomly selected men all have heights
between 65 inches and 75 inches?
Barbara Novovitch/Reuters
404 See EXTRA PRACTICE in Student Resources ONLINE QUIZ at my.hrw.com

Graphing
Calculator ACTIVITY Use after Use Normal
Distributions
Find the Area Under a Normal Curve

Use appropriate tools
strategically.
QUESTION How can you use a graphing calculator to find the area
under a normal curve?
EXAMPLE 1 Find a normal probability
The lengths of a group of newborn babies are normally distributed with a

mean of 19.8 inches and a standard deviation of 1.6 inches. Find the probability
that a randomly chosen baby in this group is at most 20.5 inches long.
STEP 1 Clarify the problem We want to find P(x ≤ 20.5) for a normal
distribution with a mean of 19.8 and a standard deviation of 1.6. VYjU#R4:D]8vÈ
8ZW`@8Zò^
qqqqqqòoWZvEE@E
STEP 2 Enter information Access the “Distributions” menu by
pressing [VARS]. Select “normalcdf(,” then enter (lower bound,
upper bound, mean, standard deviation). Use 0 as the lower bound.
You can see at the right that the probability is about 66.9%.
EXAMPLE 2 Find and display an area under a normal curve
Find P(19 ≤ x ≤ 22) for the situation in Example 1.
STEP 1 Enter information In the Distributions menu, select “DRAW” at the

top and then “ShadeNorm(.” You must enter (lower bound, upper bound,
mean, standard deviation). Enter 19 for the lower bound and 22 for the upper
bound. Do not yet press .
STEP 2 Choose a viewing window For a window that shows about

3 standard deviations to either side of the mean, let Xmin 5 15 and
Xmax 5 25. The area under the curve is 1, so the maximum Y-value
will be well less than 1. Let Ymin 5 20.075 and Ymax 5 0.25. Return
to the home screen and press . You can see at the right that
the area is about 0.607, so the probability is about 60.7%. j?#Aòo@Wn
RYzAZWqqqqqqw\Avv
PR AC TIC E
1. The mean number of potatoes per 15 pound bag from a supplier is 42, with
a standard deviation of 4.5. The distribution is normal. Find the probability
that a randomly selected bag contains the given number of potatoes.
a. 50 or fewer b. at least 35 c. 37 to 47 d. 40 to 44
2. Scores on a qualifying exam are normally distributed with a mean score of
230 and a standard deviation of 43. A score of 250 is required to pass.
a. Find and display the area under the normal curve for passing scores.
b. Find and display the area under the normal curve for scores of 2002250.
(Note: You will first need to clear the drawing from part (a).)
CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06GC.indd 405 5/11/11 2:57:20 PM

6.4 Select and Draw Conclusions
from Samples
Before You used statistics to describe sets of data.
Now You will study different sampling methods for collecting data.
Why? So you can interpret the results of a survey, as in Ex. 27.
Key Vocabulary A population is a group of people or objects that you want information about.
• population When it is too difficult, time-consuming, or expensive to survey everyone in a
• sample population, information is gathered from a sample, or subset, of the population.
• unbiased sample Some methods for selecting a sample are described below.
• biased sample
• margin of error
CC.9-12.S.IC.1 Understand In a self-selected sample, members of a In a systematic sample, a rule is used

statistics as a process for population can volunteer to be in the to select members of a population,
making inferences about sample. such as selecting every other person.
population parameters based
on a random sample from that
population.*
READING
A survey of an entire
population is called a
census.
In a convenience sample, easy-to-reach In a random sample, each member of
members of a population are selected, a population has an equal chance of
such as those in the first row. being selected.
EXAMPLE 1 Classify samples

BASEBALL A sportswriter wants to survey college baseball coaches about
whether they think wooden bats should be mandatory throughout college
baseball. Identify the type of sample described.
a. The sportswriter contacts only the coaches that he has cell phone
numbers for in order to get quick responses.
b. The sportswriter mails out surveys to all the coaches and uses only the
surveys that are returned.
Solution
a. The sportswriter selected coaches that are easily accessible. So, the
David Young-Wolff/PhotoEdit, Inc.
sample is a convenience sample.

b. The coaches can choose whether or not to respond. So, the sample is a
self-selected sample.

BIAS IN SAMPLING In order to draw accurate conclusions about a population
from a sample, you should select an unbiased sample. An unbiased sample is
representative of the population you want information about. A sample that
overrepresents or underrepresents part of the population is a biased sample.
EXAMPLE 2 Identify a biased sample

CONCERT ATTENDANCE The manager of a concert hall wants to know how often
people in the community attend concerts. The manager asks 50 people standing
in line for a rock concert how many concerts per year they attend. Tell whether
the sample is biased or unbiased. Explain your reasoning.
Solution
The sample is biased because people standing in line for a rock concert are more
likely to attend concerts than people in general.
CHOOSING UNBIASED SAMPLES Although there are many ways of sampling

a population, a random sample is preferred because it is most likely to be
representative of the population.
EXAMPLE 3 Choose an unbiased sample

SENIOR CLASS PROM You are a member of the prom committee. You want to poll
members of the senior class to find out where they want to hold the prom. There
are 324 students in the senior class. Describe a method for selecting a random
sample of 40 seniors to poll.
Solution
STEP 1 Make a list of all 324 seniors. Assign each senior a different integer
from 1 to 324.
STEP 2 Generate 40 unique random integers
from 1 to 324 using the randInt feature of j#V: Vs]Z8tvF^
a graphing calculator. The screen at the qqqqqqqqqqqqqqZ@F
right shows six such random integers. qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqZ
qqqqqqqqqqqqqqZo
If while generating the integers you qqqqqqqqqqqqqqvZE
qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqon
obtain a duplicate, discard it and qqqqqqqqqqqqqqvZt
generate a new, unique integer as a
replacement.
STEP 3 Choose the 40 students that correspond to
the 40 integers you generated in Step 2.
✓ GUIDED PRACTICE for Examples 1, 2, and 3
1. SCHOOL WEBSITE A computer science teacher wants to know if students

would like the morning announcements posted on the school’s website. He
surveys students in one of his computer science classes. Identify the type of
sample described, and tell whether the sample is biased.
2. WHAT IF? In Example 3, what is another method you could use to generate a
random sample of 40 students?
6.4 Select and Draw Conclusions from Samples 407

SAMPLE SIZE When conducting a survey, you need to make the size of your
sample large enough so that it accurately represents the population. As the
sample size increases, the margin of error decreases.
The margin of error gives a limit on how much the responses of the sample
would differ from the responses of the population. For example, if 40% of the
people in a poll prefer candidate A, and the margin of error is 64%, then it is
likely that between 36% and 44% of the entire population prefer candidate A.

Margin of Error Formula
When a random sample of size n is taken from a large population, the margin
of error is approximated by this formula:
1
Margin of error 5 6 }}
Ïn
This means that if the percent of the sample responding a certain way is
p (expressed as a decimal), then the percent of the population that would
respond the same way is likely to be between p 2 }1 and p 1 1 .
} } }
Ïn Ïn
EXAMPLE 4 Find a margin of error

MEDIA SURVEY In a survey of 1011 people,
52% said that television is their main .BJO4PVSDFPG/FXT
source of news.
a. What is the margin of error for the Television 52%
survey?
Newspaper 29%
b. Give an interval that is likely to
contain the exact percent of all Radio 10%
people who use television as their Internet 5%
main source of news.
Other 4%
Solution
a. Use the margin of error formula.
1
Margin of error 5 6 }} Write margin of error formula.
Ïn
1
5 6}} Substitute 1011 for n.
Ï 1011
ø 60.031 Use a calculator.
c The margin of error for the survey is about 63.1%.

b. To find the interval, subtract and add 3.1% to the percent of people
surveyed who said television is their main source of news (52%).
52% 2 3.1% 5 48.9% 52% 1 3.1% 5 55.1%
c It is likely that the exact percent of all people who use television as their
main source of news is between 48.9% and 55.1%.

★ EXAMPLE 5 Standardized Test Practice
A polling company conducts a poll for a U.S. presidential election. How

many people did the company survey if the margin of error is 65%?
A 25 people B 250 people C 400 people D 625 people
Solution
Use the margin of error formula.
1
Margin of error 5 6 }} Write margin of error formula.
Ïn
1
60.05 5 6 }} Substitute 60.05 for margin of error.
Ïn
1
0.0025 5 } Square each side.
n
n 5 400 Solve for n.
There were 400 people surveyed.

c The correct answer is C. A B C D
3. INTERNET In a survey of 1202 people, 11% said that they use the Internet
or e-mail more than 10 hours per week. What is the margin of error for the
survey? How many people would need to be surveyed to reduce the margin
of error to 62%?

KEY
Exs. 7, 19, and 29
Exs. 2, 14, 23, 29, and 31
SKILL PRACTICE
1. VOCABULARY Copy and complete: A sample for which each member of a
population has an equal chance of being selected is a(n) ? sample.
2. ★ WRITING Describe the difference between an unbiased sample and a

biased sample.
EXAMPLES CLASSIFYING SAMPLES Identify the type of sample described. Then tell if the
1 and 2 sample is biased. Explain your reasoning.
for Exs. 3–5
3. A taxicab company wants to know if its customers are satisfied with the
service. Each driver surveys every tenth customer during the day.
4. A town council wants to know if residents support having an off-leash area
for dogs in the town park. Eighty dog owners are surveyed at the park.
5. An English teacher needs to pick 5 students to present book reports to the
class. The teacher writes the names of all students in the class on pieces of
paper, puts the pieces in a hat, and chooses 5 names without looking.

EXAMPLE 4 FINDING MARGIN OF ERROR Find the margin of error for a survey that has the
for Exs. 6–14 given sample size. Round your answer to the nearest tenth of a percent.
6. 260 7. 1000 8. 750 9. 6400
10. 3275 11. 525 12. 2024 13. 10,000
14. ★ MULTIPLE CHOICE In a survey of 2000 voters, 45% said they planned to vote
for candidate A. What is the margin of error for the survey?
A 61.8% B 62.2% C 63.6% D 64.5%
EXAMPLE 5 FINDING SAMPLE SIZES Find the sample size required to achieve the given
for Exs. 15–23 margin of error. Round your answer to the nearest whole number.
15. 63% 16. 68% 17. 610% 18. 64.2%
19. 65.6% 20. 61.5% 21. 66.5% 22. 62.5%
23. ★ MULTIPLE CHOICE The margin of error for a poll is 62%. What is the size of
the sample?
A 200 B 400 C 1000 D 2500
24. ERROR ANALYSIS In a survey of high 1

school students, 13% said that they play 60.13 5 6 }}
Ïn
basketball regularly. The margin of
1
0.0169 5 }
error is 64%. Describe and correct the
n
error in calculating the sample size.
n ø 59
25. REASONING A survey claims the percent of a city’s residents that favor
building a new football stadium is likely between 52.3% and 61.7%. How
many people were surveyed?
26. CHALLENGE Suppose a random sample of size n is required to produce a

margin of error of 6E. Write an expression in terms of n for the sample size
1
needed to reduce the margin of error to 6 } E. By how many times must
2
the sample size be increased in order to cut the margin of error in half?
PROBLEM SOLVING
EXAMPLES 27. VACATION SURVEY In a survey of 439 teenagers in the United States, 14%
3, 4, and 5 said that they worked during their summer vacation.
for Exs. 27–31 a. What is the margin of error for the survey?
b. Give an interval that is likely to contain the exact percent of all U.S.
teenagers who worked during their summer vacation.
28. NEWSLETTER The staff for a student newsletter wants to conduct a survey
of students’ favorite TV shows. There are 1225 students in the school. The
newsletter staff would like to survey 250 students. Describe a method for
selecting an unbiased, random sample of students.

29. ★ SHORT RESPONSE Based on the newspaper report shown below, is it
reasonable to assume that Kosta is certain to win the election? Explain.
Today’s News
ELECTIONREPORT
In a telephone poll, local voters were asked which
54%
mayoral candidate they planned to vote for in the
upcoming election. The margin of error is 65%. Kosta
This poll shows an increase of 22% for Kosta 46%
since the beginning of the year, while support
for Murdock continues to decline. Murdock
30. MULTI-STEP PROBLEM A Gallup Youth Survey reported that 23% of

students surveyed, or about 181 students, say that math is their favorite
subject in school.
a. How many students were surveyed?
b. What is the margin of error for the survey?
c. Give an interval that is likely to contain the exact percent of all students
who would say that math is their favorite subject.
31. ★ EXTENDED RESPONSE A survey reported that 235 out of 500 voters in a
sample voted for candidate A and the remainder voted for candidate B.
a. Find Percents What percent of the voters in the sample voted for
candidate A? for candidate B?
b. Find Margin of Error What is the margin of error for the survey?
c. Find Intervals For each candidate, find an interval that is likely to
contain the exact percent of all voters who voted for the candidate.
d. Reasoning Based on your intervals, can you be confident that candidate B
won? If not, how many people in the sample would need to vote for
candidate B for you to be confident of her victory? (Hint: Find the least
number of voters for candidate B such that the intervals do not overlap.)
32. CHALLENGE In a survey, 52% of the respondents said they prefer cola X and
48% said they prefer cola Y. How many people would have to be surveyed
for you to be confident that cola X is truly preferred by more than half the
population? Explain your reasoning.
See EXTRA PRACTICE in Student Resources ONLINE QUIZ at my.hrw.com 411

Investigating
Algebra ACTIVITY Use after Select and Draw
Conclusions from Samples
Estimate a Population Proportion

M AT E R I A L S • graphing calculator Reason abstractly and
quantitatively.
QUESTION How can you use a sample proportion to estimate

a population proportion?
You can use statistics to make reasonable predictions, or inferences, about an

entire population from a sample of the population. A population proportion is the
ratio of members of a population with a particular characteristic to total members
of the population. A sample proportion is the ratio of members of a sample of the
population with a particular characteristic to total members of the sample.
EXPLORE 1 Compare sample proportions from a population with known

proportion
In the “population” of randomly-generated decimals between 0 and 1, the

proportion of decimals less than 0.6 is 0.6. Simulate random samples of
decimals from this population, and compare the sample proportions with
the population proportion.
STEP 1 Perform a simulation

Use a graphing calculator to generate 40 random decimals between j#V:
qqqqq`@WWWoEvvEW
0 and 1. Press , choose the “PRB” menu, select “rand,” and
press . The display will be similar to the one at the right.
Press 40 times to generate 40 random numbers. Keep a

tally of the number of decimals below 0.6. Then find your sample
proportion by dividing the number of decimals below 0.6—the
“successes”—by the number of trials, which is 40.
Repeat the simulation to find another sample proportion. Each group
will need to do enough simulations so that there are 40 in all for the class.
12
STEP 2 Display sample proportions
Collect all 40 sample proportions. Make a
Number
8
histogram of the sample proportions using
intervals of 0.05, for example, [0.55, 0.6). The 4
histogram for one set of 40 sample proportions
0
is shown at the right.
5
5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
Sample proportion
STEP 3 Investigate sample proportions

Exclude the single smallest and single greatest of the
40 sample proportions. Then find the interval that
contains the remaining 38 sample proportions.
Plot the interval containing the middle 38 sample
0 1
proportions as shown. The blue horizontal segment
population 0.6 middle 95% of sample
represents the middle 38 of 40, or 95%, of the sample
proportion proportions
proportions. So, 95% of the time, the sample proportion
from the simulation fell within the interval graphed.
CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06IAc.indd 412 5/11/11 2:58:44 PM

E X P L O R E 2 Estimate a population proportion from a Sample Proportions, n 5 40
sample proportion 1
0.9
STEP 1 Investigate sample proportions 0.8
Population proportion
There are formulas for calculating intervals expected to contain 0.7
95% of the sample proportions given any population proportion 0.6
and sample size. The chart at the right shows the 95% sample 0.5
proportion intervals for population proportions of 0.05, 0.1,
0.4
0.15, ..., 0.9, 0.95 where the sample size is n 5 40.
0.3
The interval in red is the calculated 95% sample proportion
0.2
interval for a population proportion of 0.6. Compare this
0.1
interval with the 95% interval your class created for the
simulation in Explore 1. 0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Sample proportion
STEP 2 Use a sample proportion
It’s not usually possible to collect data for entire populations.
1
So, data from samples are used to estimate unknown
population proportions. Suppose you want to estimate a 0.9
population proportion using a sample of size 40, and your 0.8
Population proportion
sample has a sample proportion of 0.6. Which populations 0.7
are most likely to have produced a sample like yours? 0.6
The green vertical line shown at right highlights a sample 0.5
proportion of 0.6. Any horizontal bar that this line touches 0.4
corresponds to a population that will produce a sample 0.3
Sample
whose sample proportion lies within that bar 95% of the time. 0.2 proportion
The green line touches the bars for population proportions 0.1 of 0.6
of 0.45 up to 0.75. So, if we have a sample of size 40 with a
0
sample proportion of 0.6, then, 95% of the time, the population 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
proportion should lie in the interval from 0.45 to 0.75. Sample proportion
STEP 3 Estimate a population proportion

For a sample of size 40 with sample proportion 0.3, use the chart to estimate the
interval that contains the corresponding population proportion 95% of the time.
1. As a class, repeat Steps 1 and 2 of Explore 1, but with each trial count the
number of decimals less than 0.6 out of 80 random decimals. Describe how
increasing the sample size in each trial affects the shape of the histogram.
1 for a sample of size n to estimate an
2. You have used the margin of error 6 }
}
Ïn
interval containing a population proportion. More precisely, this expression
Îˆp(1 2 p)ˆ
}
is 62 }
n , where the symbol p
ˆ (read as “p-hat”) is the sample proportion.
ˆ 2 2Î } ˆ 1 2Î }
} }
ˆp(1 2 p)
ˆ ˆp(1 2 p)
ˆ
Then p n , p ,p n is a 95% confidence interval for
the population proportion p. We can expect the population proportion to
be in this interval 95% of the time. Find a 95% confidence interval for the
population proportion for a sample of size 150 with a sample proportion of 0.8.

6.5 Compare Surveys, Experiments,
Before You studied sampling methods for collecting data using a survey.
Now You will learn how studies are used to collect data.
Why So you can design a study to collect data, as in Ex. 16.
Key Vocabulary SURVEYS Previously, you learned that in choosing a sample of a population
• biased questions to survey, you should do your best to select an unbiased sample to help ensure
• experiment that the survey data represent the population. Random samples are preferred
• observational study since they are less likely to be biased.
• controlled In designing a survey, it is also very important to word survey questions
experiment carefully. Answers to poorly worded questions may not accurately reflect the
• control group opinions or actions of those being surveyed. Questions that are flawed in a
• treatment group way that leads to inaccurate results are called biased questions. Questions
• randomized may be biased in several ways:
comparative
experiment • The wording of the question may encourage or pressure the respondent
to answer in a particular way.
• The question may be perceived as too sensitive to answer truthfully.
• The question may not provide the respondent with enough information
to give an accurate opinion.
CC.9-12.S.IC.3 Recognize the Bias may also be introduced in survey questioning in other ways, such as by
purposes of and differences
among sample surveys, the order in which questions are asked or by respondents giving answers they
experiments, and observational believe will please the questioner.
studies; explain how
randomization relates to each.*
EXAMPLE 1 Identify and correct bias in survey questioning

Tell why the question may be biased or otherwise introduce bias into the
survey. Describe a way to correct the flaw.
a. b.
A reporter asks parents: A dentist asks patients:
Do you agree with the school Do you brush your teeth
board’s proposal for new at least twice per day and
technology in our schools? floss every day?
Solution
a. This question assumes that the respondent is familiar with the proposal.
To get accurate results that lead to valid conclusions, state the proposal
clearly using neutral language before asking the question.
© Richard G. Bingham II/Alamy
b. Patients who brush less than twice per day or do not floss daily may
be afraid to admit this since the dentist is asking the question. One
improvement would be to have patients answer questions about dental
hygiene on paper and put the paper anonymously into a box.

EXPERIMENTS AND OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES You have seen that surveys are
one way to collect data, but different situations and purposes require different
data gathering techniques. For example, many studies are designed to try to
determine whether a quantity that varies can be associated with measured
differences in two different groups of individuals.
An experiment imposes a treatment on individuals in order to collect data on
their response to the treatment. The treatment may be a medical treatment,
or it can be any action that might affect a variable in the experiment, such as
adding methanol to gasoline and then measuring its effect on fuel efficiency.
In some cases, it may be difficult to control or isolate the variable being
studied, or it may be unethical to subject people to a certain treatment or
to withhold it from them. In this case, an observational study is used. An
observational study observes individuals and measures variables without
controlling the individuals or their environment.
EXAMPLE 2 Identify experiments and observational studies

Determine whether each situation is an example of an experiment or an
observational study. Explain.
a. A researcher asks college students how many hours
of sleep they get on an average night and examines
whether the number of hours of sleep affects students’
grades.
b. A Parks Department employee wants to know if latex
paint is more durable than non-latex paint. She has
50 park benches painted with latex paint and has
50 park benches painted with non-latex paint.
Solution
a. The researcher gathers data without controlling the individuals or
applying a treatment. The situation is an observational study.
b. A treatment (painting benches with latex paint) is applied to some of the
individuals (benches) in the study. The situation is an experiment.
1. Tell whether the survey question …TECH NOTES…

below may be biased or otherwise
introduce bias into the survey. A Faster Web Site
Explain. To test the redesign of its Web site,
an online bookseller assembled
“Do you, like most people your age,
96 users of the site and randomly
enjoy watching the latest music
divided them into two groups.
videos?”
One group used the new Web
© PhotoAlto/Sigrid Olsson/Getty Images
2. Determine whether the situation site to make an online purchase

described in the research and one group used the old Web
summary shown at the right is an site to do the same transaction.
example of an experiment or an Users of the new site were able to
observational study. Explain. complete the purchase 22% faster.
6.5 Compare Surveys, Experiments, and Observational Studies 415

CONTROLLED EXPERIMENTS In a controlled experiment, two groups are
studied under identical conditions with the exception of one variable. The
group under ordinary conditions is the control group. The group that is
subjected to the treatment is the treatment group.
In a randomized comparative experiment, individuals are randomly
assigned to the control group or the treatment group. The comparison of the
control group and the treatment group makes it possible to determine any
effects of the treatment.
Randomization minimizes bias and produces groups of individuals that are
theoretically similar in all ways before the treatment is applied. Conclusions
drawn from an experiment that is not a randomized comparative experiment
may not be valid.
EXAMPLE 3 Evaluate a published report

Determine whether the study described in the health bulletin below is a
randomized comparative experiment. If it is, describe the treatment, the
treatment group, and the control group. If it is not, explain why not and
discuss whether the conclusions drawn from the study are valid.
Health Watch!
Milk Fights Cavities
At Ashland Middle School, students were given
the choice of drinking milk or other beverages at
lunch. Fifty students who chose milk were
monitored for one year, as were 50 students who
chose other beverages. At the end of the year,
students in the “milk” group had 15% fewer
cavities than students in the other group.
Solution
The study is not a randomized comparative experiment because the
individuals were not randomly assigned to a control group and a treatment
group. (In fact, the study is an observational study, not an experiment, since
no treatment is imposed.)
The study’s conclusion that milk fights cavities may or may not be valid.
There may be other reasons why students who chose milk had fewer cavities.
For example, students who voluntarily choose milk at lunch may be more
likely to have other healthy eating or dental care habits that could affect the
number of cavities they have.
3. Determine whether the study described in the research summary for

Guided Practice Exercise 2 is a randomized comparative experiment. If
it is, describe the treatment, the treatment group, and the control group.
If it is not, explain why not and discuss whether the conclusions drawn
from the study are valid.

WELL-DESIGNED STUDIES Randomization is a key element of well-designed
studies. How randomization applies to different kinds of studies varies, as
shown below.
Sample survey Observational study Experiment

A random sample is As possible, random Individuals are assigned
selected to be surveyed samples can be selected at random to the
from the population for the groups being treatment group or the
studied. studied. control group.
Surveys do not compare groups, and so do not address cause and effect. Good
observational studies and experiments are designed to be comparative—to
compare data from two or more groups looking for a relationship between
variables. But only a well-designed experiment can determine a cause-and-
effect relationship.

Comparative Studies and Causality
• An observational study can identify correlation between variables,
but not causality. Variables other than what is being measured may be
affecting the results. For example, vigorous exercise in older people
correlates with longer life, but comparing groups only on exercise and
lifespan ignores other factors, such as that people who are unhealthy to
begin with may not be able to exercise vigorously.
• A rigorous randomized comparative experiment, by eliminating
sources of variation other than the controlled variable, can make
valid cause-and-effect conclusions possible.
EXAMPLE 4 Design an experiment or observational study

Explain whether the following research topic is best investigated through
an experiment or an observational study. Then explain how you would
design the experiment or observational study.
You want to know if listening to music using earphones for more than one hour
per day affects a person’s hearing.
Solution
The treatment (listening to music using earphones for
more than one hour a day) may affect an individual’s
hearing, so it is not ethical to assign individuals to a
control or treatment group. Use an observational study.
Randomly choose one group of individuals who already
listen to music using earphones for more than one hour
© Gregory Costanzo/Lifesize/Getty Images
per day.
Randomly choose one group of individuals who do not listen
to music using earphones for more than one hour per day.
Monitor the hearing of the individuals in both groups at regular intervals.

KEY
Exs. 5 and 15
Exs. 2 and 9
SKILL PRACTICE
1. VOCABULARY Copy and complete: An observes individuals and measures
variables without controlling the individuals or their environment.
2. ★ WRITING Describe the difference between an experiment and an observational

study.
EXAMPLE 1 IDENTIFYING BIASED SURVEY QUESTIONS Tell why the question may be biased or
for Exs. 3–6 otherwise introduce bias into the survey. Describe a way to correct the flaw.
3. “Do you agree with all of the budget cuts proposed by the mayor?”
4. “Would you rather watch the latest award-winning movie or just read some book?
5. “The tap water coming from our western water supply contains twice
the level of arsenic of water from our eastern supply. Do you think the
government should address this health problem?”
6. A child with an adult asks, “Will you vote for our school bond issue?”
EXAMPLE 2 CLASSIFYING STUDIES Determine whether each situation is an example of

for Exs. 7–9 an experiment or an observational study. Explain.
7. A researcher compares incomes of people who live in rural areas with
incomes of people who live in large cities.
8. A farmer wants to know if a new fertilizer affects the weight of the fruit
produced by strawberry plants. She applies the fertilizer to 10 rows of
plants and does not apply the fertilizer to 10 other rows of plants.
9. ★ MULTIPLE CHOICE A doctor studies the effects of nicotine on a person’s

health by monitoring the health of 100 randomly selected smokers and
100 randomly selected nonsmokers. This is an example of what type of
study?
A experiment B observational study
C sample survey D none of the above
EXAMPLE 3 ERROR ANALYSIS Describe and correct the error in describing the study given below.
for Exs. 10, 11 A company’s researchers want to study the effects of adding shea butter to
their existing hair conditioner. They monitor the hair quality of 50 randomly
selected volunteers using the old conditioner and 50 randomly selected
volunteers using the new shea butter conditioner.
10. 11.
The control group is volunteers The study is a comparative
who do not use either observational study.
of the conditioners.
12. CHALLENGE Explain why observational studies, rather than experiments,

are usually used in astronomy.

PROBLEM SOLVING
EXAMPLE 4 Explain whether the research topic is best addressed through an experiment
for Exs. 13–15 or an observational study. Then explain how you would design the
experiment or the observational study.
13. You want to know if homes that are
close to parks or schools have higher
Early Birds Make Better Drivers
property values than other homes. A recent study shows that adults who
rise before 6:30 A.M. are better drivers
14. You want to know if flowers sprayed than other adults. The study monitored
twice a day with a mist of water stay the driving records of 140 volunteers
fresh longer than flowers that are not who always wake up before 6:30 and
sprayed. 140 volunteers who never wake up be-
15. Determine whether the study described fore 6:30. The early risers had 12% fewer
in the report is a randomized comparative accidents.
experiment. If it is, describe the treatment,
the treatment group, and the control group. If it is not, explain why not
and discuss whether the conclusions drawn from the study are valid.
16. Describe how you would set up a randomized, controlled
experiment to investigate the hypothesis below. Include any
precautions you would take to ensure that your conclusions
are valid.
Dog food with added Omega-3 fatty acids will give dogs a
shiny coat.
17. MEDICINE A researcher studied the effect of fiber
supplements on heart disease. She identified 175 people
who take fiber supplements and 175 people who do not
take fiber supplements. She found that those who took the
supplements had 19% fewer heart attacks those who did not.
She concluded that taking fiber supplements reduces the
incidence of heart attacks.
a. Explain why the researcher’s conclusion may not be valid.
b. Describe how the researcher could have conducted the study
differently to produce valid results.
18. CHALLENGE Will replicating an experiment on many
individuals produce data that is more likely to accurately
represent a population than performing the experiment only
once? Explain.
QUIZ
A normal distribution has a mean of 47 and a standard deviation of 6. Find the
probability that a randomly selected x-value is in the given interval.
1. Between 35 and 65 2. At least 41 3. At most 29
Find the sample size required to achieve the given margin of error. Round your
answer to the nearest whole number.
© Image Source/Corbis
4. 63% 5. 67% 6. 64.5% 7. 60.8%

8. ★ WRITING Explain why a randomized comparative experiment should be
used to collect data whenever possible.
Investigating
Algebra ACTIVITY Use after Compare Surveys, Experiments,
Simulate an Experimental Difference

M AT E R I A L S • index cards • scissors • small paper bag • graphing calculator Use appropriate tools
strategically.
QUESTION How can you test a hypothesis about an experiment?
When you perform a randomized comparative experiment and measure a

difference between the control and treatment groups, how do you know if the
difference is from the treatment or if it’s just a chance result of the choice of
the groups? One way is to resample: combine all the measurements from both
groups, and repeatedly create new “control” and “treatment” groups at random
from the measurements. Then see how often you get chance differences
between the new groups that are at least as large as the one you measured.
EXPLORE 1 Resample data
A randomized experiment tests whether a soil supplement affects the

total yield (in kilograms) of cherry tomato plants. The table below
shows the results. How does the difference in the means of the control
and treatment groups compare with differences resulting from chance?
Total Yield of Tomato Plants (kilograms)
Control 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.2 0.7 1.9 1.4 1.7
group
Treatment 1.4 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.7
group
STEP 1 Calculate means Find the mean yield of the control group, }
xcontrol‚
and the mean yield of the treatment group, } xtreatment . Then find the difference
}xtreatment 2 }xcontrol. Note that the difference can be positive or negative, and is
0 when }
xtreatment 5 }
xcontrol.
STEP 2 Combine measurements and resample Working in pairs, cut index

cards to make 20 equal-sized pieces, and write one yield measurement on
each. Place the pieces in a bag, shake, and randomly choose 10. Call this the
“treatment” group, and call the 10 pieces in the bag the “control” group. Find
the mean for each group, record } xtreatment 2 }
xcontrol, and return the pieces to
the bag.
}xtreatment 2 }xcontrol :
Perform the resampling experiment 5 times, each time
finding the difference of means. Sample results for 5 Pair 1: 20.28, 20.24, 20.18, 20.12, 0.30
resamplings made by each of two pairs of students are
Pair 2: 20.26, 0.00, 0.12, 0.18, 0.28
shown at the right.
STEP 3 State the null hypothesis The null hypothesis is the assumption
that measured differences between a treatment group and a control group
are a result of chance. The null hypothesis for this activity is the following:
© Image Source/Corbis
The soil nutrient has no effect on the yield of the cherry tomato plants.
CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06IAd.indd 420 5/11/11 3:00:56 PM

EXPLORE 2 Evaluate the null hypothesis
To conclude that the treatment is responsible for the difference in yield,

you need strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis. To evaluate the
null hypothesis, compare the experimental difference of means with the
resampling differences.
STEP 1 Collect and display results Collect all the

differences }
xtreatment 2 }
xcontrol calculated by pairs of
students in the class in Explore 1. Display the differences
in a histogram. A sample histogram for 50 resamplings
made using a graphing calculator and an interval for the
UNVA
difference of means of 0.05 is shown at the right. U#{SÈqqqqqqVAZv
STEP 2 Analyze resampling data In Step 1 of Explore 1,

you calculated the experimental difference of means. Draw a
vertical line on your class histogram to represent this difference.
If the experimental difference of means lies in one of the tails of the
resampling distribution, then resampling gave a difference of means at least
as large as the experimental difference only rarely. This gives evidence for
rejecting the null hypothesis. More specifically, the following are true:
• If the experimental difference of means falls outside of the middle 90% of
the resampling differences of means, you can reject the null hypothesis at
the 90% confidence level.
• If the experimental difference of means falls outside of the middle 95% of
the resampling differences of means, you can reject the null hypothesis at
the 95% confidence level.
STEP 3 Evaluate results Is your class able to reject the null hypothesis?
Explain. What does this mean regarding the original experiment?

1. Find the mean of all of the resampling differences of means collected by
all pairs of students in Step 1 of Explore 2. This mean should approximate
the most likely result when the null hypothesis is true. Is the mean of the
resampling differences of means for your class close to this value?
2. In Explore 1, how many resampling choices for the treatment and control
groups are theoretically possible? Suppose that a computer is programmed
to generate all possible control and treatment group assignments, to find
the differences of means, and then to draw a histogram of the results. Would
you prefer to make conclusions about the experiment using the histogram
from the computer or the histogram for your class? Explain.
3. Suppose the company that produces the soil nutrient featured in the
experiment described in Explore 1 advertises that growing tomato plants
in soil enriched with the nutrient will increase the yield of the tomato
plants. Is this an accurate statement? Explain.

MIXED REVIEW of Problem Solving Make sense of problems and
persevere in solving them.
1. MULTI-STEP PROBLEM A fly fisher records 4. EXTENDED RESPONSE Explain whether the
in a table the weight of 20 Maine landlocked following research topic is best investigated
salmon he caught and finds they are normally through an experiment or an observational
distributed. study. Then explain how you would design the
experiment or observational study.
Jody wants to know whether water that has
high levels of dissolved calcium will inhibit or
promote orchid growth.
5. SHORT RESPONSE The amount of juice
dispensed from a machine is normally
distributed with a mean of 10.5 ounces and a
standard deviation of 0.75 ounce. Within what
range do about 68% of the amounts dispensed
fall? Explain your reasoning.
Fly fishing for salmon
6. SHORT RESPONSE A survey shows that the time
1.9, 1.5, 2.0, 2.0, 2.1, 2.0, 1.8, 1.5, 2.2, 1.9, 1.8, 1.7, spent by shoppers in a supermarket is normally
2.1, 2.2, 1.7, 2.1, 2.0, 1.5, 1.8, 2.1 distributed with a mean of 45 minutes and a
standard deviation of 12 minutes. What is the
a. Find the mean of the data set.
probability that a randomly chosen shopper
b. Find the standard deviation of the data set. will spend between 45 and 69 minutes in the
c. If all the fly fishers that come to the river supermarket? Explain your reasoning.
in a year collectively catch 3000 fish, how
many of the salmon caught do you expect 7. MULTI-STEP PROBLEM A survey of students
weigh less than 1.443 lb? shows that 15% of respondents, or 315 students,
prefer having gym class during the last period
2. MULTI-STEP PROBLEM In a survey of
of the day.
1022 people who shop online, 73% said that
they do so because of the convenience. a. How many students were surveyed?
a. What is the margin of error for the survey? b. What is the margin of error for the survey?
b. Give an interval that is likely to contain the c. Give an interval that is likely to contain the
exact percent of all online shoppers who exact percent of all students who would
shop because of the convenience. prefer to have gym class during the last
period of the day.
3. GRIDDED ANSWER At a tree nursery, the
heights of scotch pine trees are normally 8. SHORT RESPONSE A local sports TV station
distributed with a mean of 200 centimeters and wants to find the number of hours per week
a standard deviation of 20 centimeters. Find people in the viewing area watch sporting
the percent of scotch pine trees that have a events on television. The station surveys
height of at least 220 centimeters. Round your people at a nearby sports stadium. What type
answer to the nearest whole number. of sample is described? Is this sample biased?
Explain your reasoning.
Creatas/Jupiterimages
CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06MRb.indd 422 5/11/11 3:01:39 PM

6 CHAPTER SUMMARY
BIG IDEAS For Your Notebook
Big Idea 1 Using Normal Distributions
A normal distribution is modeled by a symmetric, bell-shaped curve. The area
under a normal curve is distributed as shown below. A z-score is the number of
standard deviations a data value lies above or below the mean. You can use
z-scores and the standard normal table to find probabilities related to any normal
distribution.
34% 34%
13.5% 13.5% 2 x}
z-score 5 x}}}
2.35% 2.35% s
0.15% 0.15%
x1 S
x2 S
2S
x1 S
3S
S
x
3
2
x1
x2
x2
Big Idea 2 Working with Samples

You can use several different methods to choose a sample from a population.
Random sampling is most likely to produce an unbiased sample.
Self-selected sample Members volunteer. Often biased
A rule is used to select Sometimes biased

Systematic sample
members.
Easy-to-reach members are Often biased
Convenience sample
selected.
Every member has an equal Unbiased
Random sample
chance of being selected.
Chapter Summary 423

6 CHAPTER REVIEW
REVIEW KEY VOCABULARY
my.hrw.com
• Multi-Language Glossary
• Vocabulary practice
• combination • normal distribution • biased questions

• Pascal’s triangle • normal curve • experiment
• binomial theorem • standard normal distribution • observational study
• random variable • z-score • controlled experiment
• probability distribution • population • control group
• binomial distribution • sample • treatment group
• binomial experiment • unbiased sample • randomized comparative
• symmetric • biased sample experiment
• skewed • margin of error
VOCABULARY EXERCISES
1. Copy and complete: A(n) ? is a selection of r objects from a group of n objects
where the order of the objects selected is not important.
2. In a controlled experiment, two groups are studied under identical conditions with
the exception of one variable. The group under ordinary conditions is the ? .
3. Copy and complete: The ? for an x-value from a normal distribution represents
the number of standard deviations the x-value lies above or below the mean.
REVIEW EXAMPLES AND EXERCISES

Use the review examples and exercises below to check your understanding of the
concepts you have learned in each lesson of this chapter.
6.1 Use Combinations and the Binomial Theorem

EXAMPLE
Use the binomial theorem to expand (x 1 5y)4.
(x 1 5y)4 5 4C 0x 4(5y)0 1 4C 1x 3(5y)1 1 4C 2x 2(5y)2 1 4C 3x 1(5y)3 1 4C 4x 0(5y)4
5 (1)(x 4)(1) 1 (4)(x 3)(5y) 1 (6)(x 2)(25y 2) 1 (4)(x)(125y 3) 1 (1)(1)(625y4)
5 x 4 1 20x 3y 1 150x 2y 2 1 500xy 3 1 625y4
EXERCISES
EXAMPLES Use the binomial theorem to write the binomial expansion.
3, 5, and 6
1. (t 1 3)6 2. (2a 1 b 2)4 3. (w 2 8v)4 4. (r 3 2 4s)5
for Exs. 10–14
5. ICE CREAM An ice cream vendor sells 15 flavors of ice cream. You want to
sample at least 4 of the flavors. How many different combinations of ice
cream flavors can you sample?

my.hrw.com
Chapter Review Practice
6.2 Construct and Interpret Binomial Distributions

EXAMPLE
Find the probability of tossing a coin 12 times and getting exactly 4 heads.
P(k 5 4) 5 nCk pk(1 2 p)n 2 k 5 12C 4(0.5)4(1 2 0.5)8 5 495(0.5)4(0.5)8 ø 0.121
EXERCISES
EXAMPLE 3 Find the probability of tossing a coin 8 times and getting the given number of
for Exs. 26–29 heads.
6. 6 7. 4 8. 7 9. 0
6.3 Use Normal Distributions

EXAMPLE
A normal distribution has a mean of 76 and a standard deviation of 9. Use the
standard normal table in the lesson to find the probability that a randomly
selected x-value from the distribution is at most 64.
}
x 2 x 5 64 2 76 ø 21.3
z5} } Find z-score for x 5 64.
s 9
P(x ≤ 64) ø P(z ≤ 21.3) 5 0.0968 Use the standard normal table.
EXERCISES
EXAMPLE 3 A normal distribution has a mean of 95 and a standard deviation of 7. Use
for Exs. 12–17 the standard normal table in the lesson to find the indicated probability for a
randomly selected x-value from the distribution.
10. P(x ≤ 89) 11. P(x ≤ 84) 12. P(91 < x ≤ 100)
13. P(x ≤ 50) 14. P(x > 100) 15. P(50 < x ≤ 80)
6.4 Select and Draw Conclusions from Samples

EXAMPLE
In a survey of 582 people, 57% said that summer is their favorite season. What
is the margin of error for the survey?
1 1
Margin of error 5 6}} 5 6}} ø 60.041 5 64.1%
Ïn Ï582
EXERCISES
EXAMPLE 4 Find the margin of error for a survey that has the given sample size. Round
for Exs. 18–22 your answer to the nearest tenth of a percent.
16. 300 17. 2500 18. 800 19. 4900
20. SURVEYS In a Gallup Youth Survey of 517 teenagers, 34% said that their
favorite way to spend an evening was to hang out with family or friends.
What is the margin of error for the survey?
Chapter Review 425

6 6.5
CHAPTER REVIEW
Compare Surveys, Experiments, and Observational Studies
EXAMPLE
Determine whether the study described in the news bulletin below is a
randomized comparative experiment. If it is, describe the treatment, the
treatment group, and the control group. If it is not, explain why not and discuss
whether the conclusions drawn from the study are valid.
Aural Anomaly! Headphones Hurt Hearing

A study of 100 college and high school students compared their time spent listening to
music using headphones with hearing loss. Twelve percent of people who listened to
headphones more than 1 hour per day were found to have measurable hearing loss over
the course of the three-year study.The study is not a randomized comparative experiment
because the individuals were not randomly assigned to a control group and a treatment
group. The study is an observational study, because no treatment was imposed.
The study’s conclusion that headphone use impairs hearing ability may or may not be
valid. People who listen to over an hour of music per day may be more likely to attend
loud concerts that are known to affect hearing.
EXERCISES
EXAMPLE 2 Decide whether the following are examples of observational studies, surveys, or
for Exs. 21–23 randomized controlled experiments.
21. Preparing for an employee appreciation dinner, a human resources
representative asks people to name their favorite type of sandwich bread.
22. A market researcher tracks customer data to find out which type of sandwich
bread attracts the most repeat customers.
23. Various types of batteries each run a flashlight constantly until the light goes
off.
24. An apple grower concerned about the of effect the orchard’s new canning
plant may have on the business compares the number of apples produced in
each tree with the tree’s distance from the canning plant.

6 CHAPTER TEST
Find the number of permutations or combinations.
1. 4C 3 2. 7C 7 3. C
18 4
4. C
9 5

5. (x 1 5)3 6. (3a 2 3)5 7. (s 1 t 2)4 8. (c 3 2 2d 2)6
Calculate the probability of k successes for a binomial experiment consisting

of n trials with probability p of success on each trial.
9. k 5 4, n 5 11, p 5 0.4 10. k ≤ 2, n 5 5, p 5 0.7 11. k ≥ 8, n 5 9, p 5 0.9
12. TRUE-OR-FALSE QUIZ Calculate the probability of randomly guessing at

least 8 correct answers on a 10 question true-or-false quiz.
13. GOVERNMENT There are 15 members on a city council. On a recent agenda

item, 8 of the council members voted in favor of a budget increase for city
park improvements. How many combinations of council members could
have voted in favor of the budget increase?
A normal distribution has a mean of 72 and a standard deviation of 5. Find

the probability that a randomly selected x-value from the distribution is in
the given interval.
14. Between 67 and 77 15. Between 57 and 72 16. At least 62
Find the margin of error for a survey that has the given sample size. Round
your answer to the nearest tenth of a percent.
17. 340 18. 8125 19. 931 20. 1560
21. TEST SCORES The scores on a standardized test administered to 10,000

students have a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10. Find the z-score
for each student whose score is given.
a. Kevin: 55 b. Manuel: 70 c. Colby: 40 d. Neal: 47
22. SHOPPING SURVEY In a survey of 1600 U.S. adults, 61% said that they have
purchased a product online. Find the margin of error for the survey. Then
give an interval that is likely to contain the exact percent of all U.S. adults
who have purchased a product online.
23. FISHING A study found that 9% of people cite fishing as their favorite
leisure-time activity. Suppose you randomly survey 8 people about their
leisure-time activities. What is the probability that at least 2 of the people
cite fishing as their favorite?
Chapter Test 427

6 ★ Standardized TEST PREPARATION
MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS
If you have difficulty solving a multiple choice problem directly, you may be
able to use another approach to eliminate incorrect answer choices and obtain
the correct answer.
P RO B L E M 1
The Nielsen ratings measure how many viewers watch different TV
programs. There are 5000 Nielsen households, which are chosen
randomly from U.S. households with televisions. Suppose the Nielsen
ratings report that 9.2% of Neilson households watched a certain
program. What interval is likely to contain the exact percent of all U.S.
households with televisions that watched the program?
A 4.0% to 14.0% B 7.8% to 10.6%
C 8.3% to 10.3% D 9.2% to 9.6%
METHOD 1 METHOD 2
SOLVE DIRECTLY Calculate the margin of ELIMINATE CHOICES Another method is to check
error. Then use the margin of error and the the intervals given in the answer choices.
percent given in the problem to find the
You know that 9.2% must fall exactly in the
interval.
middle of the interval.
STEP 1 Calculate the margin of error.
Choice A: 4.0 1 14.0 18.0
} 5 } 5 9.0, so 9.2% does
1 2 2
Margin of error 5 6 }} not fall exactly in the middle of the
Ïn
interval. You can eliminate choice A. ✗
1
5 6}
Choice B: 7.8 1 10.6 18.4
}
Ï 5000 } 5 } 5 9.2, so 9.2% falls
2 2
ø 60.014 exactly in the middle of the interval.
5 61.4% Choice C: 8.3 1 10.3 18.6
} 5 } 5 9.3, so 9.2% does
2 2
STEP 2 Find the lower bound for the interval. not fall exactly in the middle of the
Lower bound 5 9.2% 2 1.4% interval. You can eliminate choice C. ✗
5 7.8% Choice D: 9.2 1 9.6 18.8

} 5 } 5 9.4, so 9.2% does
2 2
STEP 3 Find the upper bound for the interval. not fall exactly in the middle of the
Upper bound 5 9.2% 1 1.4% interval. You can eliminate choice D. ✗
5 10.6% c The correct answer is B. A B C D

STEP 4 Write the interval.
The interval is 7.8% to 10.6%.
c The correct answer is B. A B C D

P RO B L E M 2
At a local bank, the waiting times for an available teller are normally
distributed with a mean of 10 minutes and a standard deviation of
2 minutes. What is the approximate probability that a randomly selected
customer at the bank waits no more than 13 minutes for a teller?
A 60.7% B 82.0% C 93.3% D 98.5%
METHOD 1 METHOD 2
SOLVE DIRECTLY Use a z-score and a standard ELIMINATE CHOICES Use facts about normal
normal table to find the desired probability. distributions to eliminate incorrect answer
choices.
STEP 1 Find the z-score for a waiting time of 13
minutes. For a randomly selected customer with a waiting
2 }x
z 5 x}
time of x minutes, you know the following:
s
P(x ≤ 12) 5 P(x ≤ }x 1 s)
13 2 10
5}
2 5 50% 1 34%
5 1.5 5 84%
STEP 2 Use the standard normal table to find P(x ≤ 14) 5 P(x ≤ }x 1 2s)
P(z ≤ 1.5). 5 50% 1 34% 1 13.5%
P(z ≤ 1.5) 5 0.9332 ø 93.3% 5 97.5%
The probability of waiting no more It follows that P(x ≤ 13) is between 84% and
than 13 minutes is about 93.3%. 97.5%. Only the probability of 93.3% in answer
c The correct answer is C. A B C D choice C satisfies this condition.
c The correct answer is C. A B C D
PRACTICE
Explain why you can eliminate the highlighted answer choice.
1. A normal distribution has a mean of 4.06 and a standard deviation of
0.04. What is the probability that a randomly selected value from the
distribution is between 4.06 and 4.14?
A 0.01 B 0.475 C 0.68 D 0.99
2. If you add the same nonzero constant to each value in a data set, which
statistic does not change?
A Mean B Median C Mode D Range y
3. Which type of function best models the data represented by the scatter
plot at the right?
A Linear B Quadratic
1
C Cubic D Exponential
1 x
Test Preparation 429

6 ★ Standardized TEST PRACTICE
MULTIPLE CHOICE
1. Which binomial expansion includes the 6. You perform a binomial experiment
term 40x 2? consisting of 20 trials with a probability
of success of 41%. What is the most likely
A (x 1 1)5 B (x 1 5)5
number of successes?
C (2x 1 1)5 D (2x 1 5)5
A 8 B 5
2. What is the fourth term of the expansion of
C 4 D 16
(x 2 2)6?
A 60x 4 B 260x 4 7. In a nationwide poll of 1015 U.S. adults, Tom
Hanks was voted America’s favorite movie
C 296x 3 D 96x 3 star. What is the approximate margin of error
for the survey?
3. According to a survey from the National
Center for Health Statistics, the heights A 60.031% B 60.31%
of adult women in the United States are
C 63.1% D 631%
normally distributed with a mean of 64
inches and a standard deviation of 2.7 8. A normal distribution has a mean of 165
inches. What is the approximate probability and a standard deviation of 6.7. What is the
that 4 randomly selected women are all z-score of a data point measuring 192?
between 58.6 inches and 66.7 inches tall?
A 53.28 B 10.43
A 34% B 44%
C 0.78 D 4.02
C 68% D 81.5%
9. Complete the sentence: A(n) _____?_____
4. What is the percent of the area under a
observes individuals and measures variables
normal curve that is represented by the
without controlling the individuals or their
shaded region?
environment.
A controlled B control group
experiment
C observational D treatment group
study
10. A survey claims the percent of customers
3S
S
x2
x1
who favor brand X cereal over brand Y is

likely between 78.01% and 45.99%. How many
A 50% B 81.5%
people were surveyed?
C 83.85% D 84%
A 62 B 10
5. Rachel scored an 88 on her physics test. C 39 D 32
The class average was 79.3, and the standard
deviation was 7.5. What is the z-score for
Rachel’s test score?
A 1.16 B 1.30
C 1.45 D 1.60

GRIDDED ANSWER SHORT RESPONSE
11. A normal distribution has a mean of 77 and 17. According to a certain poll, 51% of adults in
a standard deviation of 4. What is the z-score the United States follow professional football.
corresponding to an x-value of 80? The margin of error is 62%. About how many
people were surveyed? Explain whether you
12. What is the coefficient of x 3 in the expansion
know for certain that football is followed by
of (4x 2 1)9?
the majority of adults in the United States.
13. What is the value of the expression 5C 3 2 5C 2?
18. A student is conducting a survey about the
14. In a normal distribution, about what percent Internet usage of high school students. He
of the area under the related normal curve lies sends the survey by e-mail to each person in
within 2 standard deviations of the mean? his address book, and uses only the surveys
that are returned. What type of sample is this?
15. What is the probability rounded to the
Is the sample biased or unbiased? Explain.
nearest thousandth of tossing a coin 50 times
and getting exactly 15 heads?
16. In a survey of adults who follow more than
one sport, 30% listed football as their favorite
sport. You survey 15 adults who follow more
than one sport. What is the probability
rounded to the nearest thousandth that
fewer than 4 of them will say that football is
their favorite sport?
EXTENDED RESPONSE
19. The results of a survey of the newsgathering habits of adults age 18–29 are
displayed in the table.
a. How many people were surveyed?
What is your primary source of news?
b. Why might the conclusion, “Young adults generally
don’t get news from TV” be inaccurate to draw from TV 32%
this data? Internet 41%
c. Aleida decides to test the results of the poll. She Newspaper 12%
decides to survey people at random from that age
group. What is the probability, to the nearest tenth Radio 15%
of a percent, that the Internet is the primary source (margin of error 64.47%)
of news for at least 3 out of the 6 people she will
choose to survey?
d. Aleida finds that 4 of 6 respondents (or 66.7%) to her poll said that the
Internet was their primary source of news. She concludes that the poll
was inaccurate. Why might she be wrong?
e. To the nearest tenth of a percent, what is the margin of error in Aleida’s
survey?
Test Practice 431

Alg2 ch6

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Lesson

2. The binomial distribution at the right 0

x 2 68 for the x-values 64, 72, and 76.

Find the square root of each number.

CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06CO.indd 376 5/11/11 4:31:46 PM

The scoreboard reflects the scores accumulated by each of the 10 contestants.

Construct a binomial distribution. Use it to

KEY CONCEPT For Your Notebook

EXAMPLE 1 Find combinations Standard 52-Card Deck

CARDS A standard deck of 52 playing cards has K K K K

52! 5 52 p 51 p 50 p 49 p 48 p 47! 5 2,598,960

2! p 26! 5 2 p 26 p 25 p 24 p 23 p 22 p 21! 5 131,560

378 Chapter 6 Data Analysis and Statistics

CC13_A2_MESE647159_C06L01.indd 378 5/11/11 4:33:08 PM

EXAMPLE 2 Decide to multiply or add combinations

AVOID ERRORS Solution

SUBTRACTING POSSIBILITIES Counting problems that involve phrases like “at

EXAMPLE 3 Solve a multi-step problem

✓ GUIDED PRACTICE for Examples 1, 2, and 3

Find the number of combinations.

6.1 Use Combinations and the Binomial Theorem 379

KEY CONCEPT For Your Notebook

EXAMPLE 4 Use Pascal’s triangle

✓ GUIDED PRACTICE for Example 4

6. WHAT IF? In Example 4, use Pascal’s triangle to find the number of

380 Chapter 6 Data Analysis and Statistics

This result is generalized in the binomial theorem.

KEY CONCEPT For Your Notebook

(a 1 b) n 5 nC 0anb 0 1 nC1an 2 1b1 1 nC2an 2 2b2 1 . . . 1 nCna0bn

EXAMPLE 5 Expand a power of a binomial sum

Use the binomial theorem to write the binomial expansion.

5 (1)(x6)(1) 1 (3)(x4)(y) 1 (3)(x2)( y 2) 1 (1)(1)( y 3)

POWERS OF BINOMIAL DIFFERENCES To expand a power of a binomial difference,

EXAMPLE 6 Expand a power of a binomial difference

✓ GUIDED PRACTICE for Examples 5 and 6

Use the binomial theorem to write the binomial expansion.

6.1 Use Combinations and the Binomial Theorem 381

C (3x)4(2) 6 5 (210)(81x4)(64) 5 1,088,640x4

c The coefficient of x4 is 1,088,640.

✓ GUIDED PRACTICE for Example 7

11. Find the coefficient of x5 in the expansion of (x 2 3)7.

6.1 EXERCISES HOMEWORK

2. ★ WRITING Explain the difference between permutations and combinations.

EXAMPLES COMBINATIONS Find the number of combinations.

382 Chapter 6 Data Analysis and Statistics

EXAMPLE 7 32. Find the coefficient of x5 in the expansion of (x 2 2)10.

35. ★ MULTIPLE CHOICE Which is the coefficient of x4 in the expansion of (x 2 3)7?

PASCAL’S TRIANGLE In Exercises 36 and 37, use the diagrams shown.

REASONING In Exercises 38 and 39, decide whether the problem requires

CHALLENGE Verify the identity. Justify each of your steps.

6.1 Use Combinations and the Binomial Theorem 383

51. MULTI-STEP PROBLEM A televised singing competition picks a winner

52. ★ EXTENDED RESPONSE A group of 15 high school students is volunteering

c. Analyze Compare your results from parts (a) and (b).

5 See WORKED-OUT SOLUTIONS ★ 5 STANDARDIZED

See EXTRA PRACTICE in Student Resources ONLINE QUIZ at my.hrw.com 385

Use a Simulation to Test

M AT E R I A L S • coins • graphing calculator

QUESTION How do you determine whether a coin is fair?

EXPLORE 1 Perform an experiment

STEP 1 Flip coins

Flip 1 Flip 2 Flip 3 Flip 4