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PROBABILITY A discrete sample space is a set of distinct, separate

Engr. Orley G. Fadriquel outcomes that result from a random experiment or
process. Each individual outcome is countable and distinct
Topic Outline from all other outcomes in the set. Discrete sample spaces
2-1 Sample Spaces and involve situations where outcomes are specific and well-
Events 2-1.1 Random defined, with no intermediate values between them.
[
Experiments Sample space is discrete if it consists of a finite number
2-1.2 Sample Spaces of elements or infinite but can be represented by whole
2-1.3 Events numbers
2-1.4 Counting Techniques Example of Discrete Sample
2-2 Interpretations and Axioms of Probability 1. Coin Flips: When flipping a coin, the sample space is
2-3 Addition Rules {H, T}, representing the two possible outcomes: heads
2-4 Conditional Probability (H) and tails (T).
2-5 Multiplication and Total Probability 2. Rolling Dice: Rolling a six-sided die results in a sample
Rules 2-6 Independence space of {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, with each number
2-7 Bayes’ Theorem representing a possible outcome.
2-8 Random Variables 3. Card Decks: Drawing a card from a standard deck
results in a discrete sample space of all 52 cards in
Learning Objectives the deck.
After careful study of this chapter, you should be able to 4. Binary Sequences: The sample space of binary
do the following: sequences of length 3 is {000, 001, 010, 011, 100,
 Understand and describe sample spaces and events 101,
 Interpret probabilities and calculate probabilities of 110, 111}.
events 5. Survey Responses: For a survey question with options A,
 Use permutations and combinations to count outcomes B, C, and D, the sample space is {A, B, C, D}.
 Calculate the probabilities of joint events 6. Children in a Family: Counting the number of
 Interpret and calculate conditional probabilities children in a family can result in a sample space {0,
 Determine independence and use independence to 1, 2, 3, ...}.
calculate probabilities
A continuous sample space is a concept in probability
 Understand Bayes’ theorem and when to use it
theory that refers to a set of outcomes from a random
 Understand random variables
experiment or process in which the outcomes are not
RANDOM EXPERIMENT countable or discrete, but rather form a continuous range
A random experiment is an action through which of values. In other words, the sample space consists of
specific results (counts, measurements or responses) are outcomes that can take on any real value within a
obtained. It is an experiment that can result in different specified interval or range. Continuous sample spaces
outcomes, even though it is repeated in the same manner
are encountered when dealing with quantities that can
every time. Also called probability experiment.
vary smoothly across a range of values.
Example: Example of Continuous Sample Space
• Rolling a die 1. Measurement of Length:
• Tossing a coin Consider measuring the length of an object, such
• Drawing cards as a piece of string, with a ruler. The possible outcomes
• Measuring the current in a copper wire can be any real number greater than or equal to 0 (since
• Choosing at random a number from (0, lengths cannot be negative).
1) Probability Sample Space: The set of positive real numbers, [0, ∞).
The extent to which an event is likely to occur, 2. Measurement of Weight:
measured by the ratio of the favorable cases to the whole
When measuring the weight of an object, the
number of cases possible.
outcomes can be any positive real number, representing
Probability theory provides a conceptual
framework for analyzing uncertain outcomes of the weight in a specific unit (e.g., kilograms or pounds).
experiments. Sample Space: The set of positive real numbers, [0, ∞).
• The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is 3. Temperature
the Outcome. Measuring temperature in degrees Celsius or
• The set of all possible outcomes for an experiment is the Fahrenheit yields a continuous sample space.
Sample Space, denoted by S. Temperatures can take on any real value within a certain
Example 1: range.
The sample space when rolling a dice has six outcomes. Sample Space: The range of real numbers representing
temperatures in a given scale and range.
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A coin is tossed twice, the set of all possible outcomes. 4. Age at a Certain Event
S = {TT, TH, HT, TT} If you're recording the age at which individuals
The answer to a query attend a particular event (e.g., a concert), the possible
ages form a continuous sample space.
S = {Yes, No}
Sample Space: The set of positive real numbers,
Types of Sample Space representing ages.
• Discrete 5. Suppose that all connectors will be between 10 and
• Continuous 11 mm thick, the sample space could be
S = {x | 10 < x < 11}
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Example of Sample Spaces Events

1. If the objective of the analysis is to consider only An event consists of one or more outcomes and is
whether or not the parts conform to the a subset of the sample space. An event (E) is a subset of
manufacturing specifications, either part may or may the sample space of a random experiment
not conform. If the ordered pair yn indicates that the A simple event is an event that consists of a single
first connector conforms and the second does not, the outcome.
sample space can be represented by the four Example
outcomes: A die is rolled. Event E is rolling an even number.
S = {yy, yn, ny, nn} This is not a simple event because the outcomes of event
E are {2, 4, 6}.
2. Sample Space Defined by Tree Diagram
a. Suppose that three items are selected at random EVENT COMBINATIONS
from a manufacturing process. Each item is The Union of two events consists of all outcomes
inspected and classified defective, D, or non- that are contained in one event or the other, denoted as
defective, N. E1⋃ E2.
The Intersection of two events consists of all
outcomes that are contained in one event and the other,
denoted as E1 ∩ E2.
The Complement of an event is the set of outcomes
in the sample space that are not contained in the event,
denoted as E.
Two events E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive, or
disjoint, if E1 ∩ E2 = ⊘; that is, if E1 and E2 have no
elements in common.
Example – Discrete Event
Consider whether or not the parts conform to the
manufacturing specifications. We abbreviate yes and no
S = {DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND, NNN} as y and n. The sample space S = {yy, yn, ny, nn}. Suppose
that E1 denotes an event that at least one part conforms
b. Messages are classified as on-time(o) or late(l). is denoted by E1. Then, E1 = {yy, yn, ny}
Classify the next 3 messages. Suppose, E2 denotes that an event that no parts conforms
to the specifications, then E2 = {nn}. Suppose E3 denotes
an event that at least one part does not conform, then E3 =
{yn, ny, nn), then
E1 ⋃ E2 = {yy, yn, ny, nn (Union)
E1 ∩ E3 = (yn, ny) (intersect)
E1’ = {nn} (complement)
Example – Discrete Event
List the elements of each of the following sample spaces:
1) the set of integers between 1 and 50 divisible by 8:
S = {ooo, ool, olo, oll, loo, lol, llo, lll} 2) the set S = {x | x2 + 4x - 5 = 0};
3) (d) the set S = {x | a l is a continent};
c. An automobile manufacturer provides vehicles 4) the set. S = {x l 2x - 4 > 0 and X <
equipped with selected options. Each vehicle is 1}. Answer:
ordered 1) S = {8, 16, 24, 32, 40, 48}.
• With or without an automatic transmission 2) For x2 + 4x − 5 = (x + 5)(x − 1) = 0, the only solutions
• With or without air-conditioning are x = −5 and x = 1. S= {−5, 1}.
• With one of three choices of a stereo 3) S = {N. America, S. America, Europe, Asia, Africa,
system Australia, Antarctica}.
• With one of four exterior colors 4) Solving 2x − 4 ≥ 0 gives x ≥ 2. Since we must also have x
If the sample space consists of the set of all < 1, it follows that S = φ.
possible vehicle types, what is the number of Example – Discrete Event
outcomes in the sample space? Which of the following events are equal?
A = {1, 3};
B = {x | x is a number on a die}:
C = {x l x2 -4x + 3 = 0};
D = {x | x is the number of heads when six coins are
tossed}.
Answer
A = {1, 3}.
B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
C = {x | x2 − 4x + 3 = 0} = {x | (x − 1) (x − 3) = 0} = {1, 3}.
D = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
The sample space contains 48 outcomes. Clearly, the answer is A & C.
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Example – Discrete Event Example:

If S = {0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9} and A = {0,2,4,6,8}, B = {1,3,5,7,9}, Mutually Exclusive Events
C = {2,3,4,5}, and D = {1,6, 7}, list the elements of the sets Events A and B are mutually exclusive because
corresponding to the following events: they share no common outcomes. The occurrence of one
a) A U C event precludes the occurrence of the other.
b) A n B Symbolically, A ⋂ B = Ø
c) C’
d) (C’ n D) u B
e) (S n C)'
f) A n C n D'
Answer
a) A ∪ C = {0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8}.
b) A ∩ B = . (Mutually Exclusive or Disjoint)
c) C′ = {0, 1, 6, 7, 8, 9}.
d) C′ ∩ D = {1, 6, 7}, so (C′ ∩ D) ∪ B = {1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9}. Example
e) (S ∩ C)′ = C′ = {0, 1, 6, 7, 8, 9}.
From the Venn Diagram shown below,
f) A ∩ C = {2, 4}, so A ∩ C ∩ D′ = {2, 4}.
A = {1, 2, 4, 7} B = {1, 2, 3, 6} C = {1, 3, 4, 5}
Then,
Example – Continuous Event
A’ = {3, 5, 6} B’ = {4, 5, 7} C’ = {2, 6, 7}
Measurements of the thickness of a part are modeled with
the sample space: S = R+.
A ∪ B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7}
Let E1 = {x | 10 ≤ x < 12},
A ∪ C = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7}
Let E2 = {x | 11 < x < 15}
B ∪ C = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
1) Then E1 ⋃ E2 = {x | 10 ≤ x < 15} A ∩ B = {1, 2)
2) Then E1 ∩ E2 = {x | 11 < x < 12} B ∩ C = {1, 3}
3) Then E1’ = {x | 0 < x < 10 or x ≥ 12} A ∩ C = {1, 4}
4) Then E1’∩ E2 = {x | 12 ≤ x < 15} A∩B∩C=
{1} A ∩ B’=
Venn Diagrams {4, 7}
Diagrams are often used to portray relationships A ∩ C’= {2, 7}
between sets, and these diagrams are also used to A’∩ B = {3, 6}
describe relationships between events. We can use Venn A’∩ C = {3, 5}
diagrams to represent a sample space and events in a C’ ∩ B = {2,6}
sample space. The relationship between events and the
corresponding sample space can be illustrated graphically Example
by means of Venn diagrams. Suppose that a family is leaving on a summer
vacation in their camper and that M is the event that they
Example will experience mechanical problems, T is the event that
Events A & B contain their respective outcomes. they will receive a ticket; for committing a traffic violation,
The shaded regions indicate the event relation of each and V is the event: that they will arrive at a campsite with
diagram. no vacancies. Referring to the Venn diagram of the
Figure,
state in words the events
represented by the
following regions:
a) region 5:
b) region 3;
c) regions 1 and 2
together:
d) regions 4 and 7
together;
e) regions 3

Answer:
a) The family will experience mechanical problems but
will receive no ticket for traffic violation and will not
arrive at a campsite that has no vacancies.
b) The family will receive a traffic ticket and arrive at a
campsite that has no vacancies but will not experience
mechanical problems.
c) The family will experience mechanical problems and
will arrive at a campsite that has no vacancies.
d) The family will receive a traffic ticket but will not
arrive at a campsite that has no vacancies.
e) The family will not experience mechanical problems.
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Counting Techniques Rule 1. Number of permutations for a set of n items is n!

One of the problems that the statistician must
consider and attempt to evaluate is the element of Example
In how many ways you can arrange letters a, b, c.
chance associated with the occurrence of certain events
when an experiment is performed. These problems Solution:
belong in the field of probability. In many cases we shall If we arrange this manually, the possible permutations
be able to solve a probability problem by counting the are abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, and cba. Thus, we see that
number of points in the sample space without actually there are 6 total possible arrangements.
listing each element. This solution is only possible if we have all the time to list
all the possible arrangements.
There are three special rules, or counting techniques, Another solution:
used to determine the number of outcomes in events. Let’s count the objects (n) to be arranged, n =3.
They are:
 Multiplication rule Applying the formula:
 Permutation rule No. of ways to arrange a,b,c = n! = 3! = 6 ways
 Combination rule Answer: 6 ways
Each has its special purpose that must be applied properly
– the right tool for the right job. Rule 2. The number of permutations of n distinct objects
taken r at a time:
𝑛!
Multiplication Rule 𝑃𝑛 = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2). . . (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1) =
The multiplication rule is a fundamental principle 𝑟
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!
in probability theory that helps calculate the probability of n is the # in the group
two or more independent events occurring together. It's r is taken from the group
often used to find the probability of a series of events
happening in a specific sequence or combination. Example
The multiplication rule states that if you have two You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8.
or more independent events, the probability of both (or In how many different orders can you do so?
all) events occurring is the product of their individual
probabilities. n = 8, r = 5
8! = 6720 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
Let an operation consist of k steps and there
𝑃58 =
(8 − 5)!
are n1 ways of completing step 1,
n2 ways of completing step 2, … and Example
nk ways of completing step k. In one year, three awards (research, teaching,
Then, the total number of ways to perform k steps is: and service) will be given to a class of 25 graduate
n1 · n2 · … · nk students in a statistics department. If each student can
receive at most one award, how many possible selections
Example: are there?
In the design for a website, we can choose to use
among: 4 colors, Solution:
3 fonts, and Since the awards are distinguishable, it is a permutation
3 positions for an image. problem. n = 25 (no. of graduate students) r = 3 (no. of
How many designs are possible? awards)
Answer via the multiplication rule: 4 · 3 · 3 = 36 No. of possible selections 𝑛!
𝑃𝑛 = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2). . . (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1) =
Example: 𝑟
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!
A meal consists of a main dish, a side dish, and a 25!
dessert. How many different meals can be selected if 𝑃325 = (25 − 3)! = 13,800
there are 4
main dishes, 2 side dishes and 5 desserts available? Answer: No. of possible selections =13,800
# of main # of side # of
dishes dishes desserts Example
A printed circuit board has eight different locations
4  2  5 = 40 in which a component can be placed. If four different
components are to be placed on the board, how many
There are 40 meals available. designs are possible?

Permutations Answer: Order is important, so use the permutation formula

A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a with n = 8, r = 4.
set of objects. The number of permutations is the number of
different arrangements in which items can be placed. 8! 8⋅7⋅6⋅5⋅
Notice that if the order of the items is changed, the 𝑃48 = 4! = 8 ⋅ 7 ⋅ 6 ⋅ 5 = 1,680
(8 − 4)!
arrangement is different, so we have a different = 4!
permutation. In permutations, the order is important!
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Rule 3. If n items are arranged in a circle, the arrangement COMBINATIONS

doesn’t change if every item is moved by one place to the
left or to the right. Therefore, in this situation, one item can Combinations are similar to permutations, but with the
be placed at random, and all the other items are placed in important difference that combinations take no account
relation to the first item. The number of permutations of n of order.
objects arranged in a circle is (n − 1)! It is used to calculate the number of ways to select a
Example specific number of items from a larger set without
In how many ways can 6 people be seated at a considering the order of selection. In other words,
round table? combinations are concerned with selecting items without
Solution: regard to their arrangement.
The number of ways will be (6 – 1)! or 120. If S = {a, b, c}, n =3, then
Answer: 120 If r = 3, there is 1 combination, namely: abc
If r = 2, there are 3 combinations, namely ab, ac,
Rule 4. Similar or identical item permutations used for
and bc
counting the sequences when some items are identical,
such that Take note that the # of permutations ≥ # of combinations
n = n1 + n2 + … + nr items of which Since order does not matter with combinations, we
n1, n2, …., nr are identical, are dividing the # of permutations by r!, where r! is the # of
The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 arrangements of r elements.
are of one kind, n2 of a second kind, ... nk of a kth kind 𝑃𝑟𝑛 𝑛!
is 𝐶𝑛 = =
𝑟! 𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)!
𝑟
𝑛!
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = n = is the number of collections
𝑛1! 𝑛2 ! . . . 𝑛𝑟 !
r = is taken from the collection
Example
In a college football training session, the defensive Example
coordinator needs to have 10 players standing in a row. You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8.
Among these 10 players, there are 1 freshman, 2 In how many different ways can you do so if the order
sophomores, 4 juniors, and 3 seniors. How many different doesn’t matter?
ways can they be arranged in a row if only their class 𝑛! 8! = 56 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
𝐶𝑛 = =
level
𝑟
will be distinguished? 𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)! 5! (8 − 5)!
Solution: Example
n = 10 A young boy asks his mother to get 5 Game-BoyTM
n1 = 1, n2 = 2, n3 = 4, n4 = 3
cartridges from his collection of 10 arcade and 5 sports
10!
= 12,600 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 games. How many ways are there that his mother can get
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 =
1! 2! 4! 3 arcade and 2 sports games?
3! Solution:
Example:
Jessie wants to plant 10 plants along the sidewalk • number of ways selecting cartridges from arcade
in her front yard. She has 3 rose bushes, 4 daffodils, and 3 10! = 120
𝐶310 =
lilies. In how many distinguishable ways can the plants 3! (10 − 3)!
be arranged? • number of ways selecting cartridges from
Solution: sport games
n = 10 5!
𝐶25 = 2! (5 − = 10
n1 = 3, n2 = 4, n3 =
2)!
3
10!
= 4,200 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 Using multiplication rule, 120 x 10 = 1,200 ways.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 =
3! 4!
3! Alternate10Solution
Example: 𝐶 . 𝐶5 = 120𝑥10 = 1200 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
3 2
In a hospital, the operating room needs to
schedule three knee surgeries and two hip surgeries in
Example:
a day. The knee surgery is denoted as k and the hip as
In a state lottery, you must correctly select 6
h. How many sequences are there?
numbers (in any order) out of 45 to win the grand prize.
Solution:
a) How many ways can 6 numbers be chosen from the
Since there are 2 identical hip surgeries and 3
45 numbers?
identical knee surgeries, then
b) If you purchase one lottery ticket, what is the
n=3+2=5
probability of winning the top prize?
n1 = 3, n2 = 2

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠 = 5!
= 10 𝑠𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠 Solution 45 45!
3! a) 𝐶 = = 8,145,060 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
2!
The Set of sequences are 6 6!39!
S= {kkkhh, kkhkh, kkhhk, khkkh, khkhk, khhkk, hkkkh, hkkhk, hkhkk, hhkkk}
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b) There is only one winning ticket, therefore,

1
𝑃 (𝑤𝑖𝑛) = = 1.2277 𝑥 10−7
8,145,060