Crypto Weekly Watchlist

February 5 - February 11, 2024

1. Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis

2. Bitcoin Technical Analysis
3. Broad Market Analysis
a. Ethereum
b. Total Market Cap
c. Bitcoin Dominance
d. ETH/BTC
e. Volatility
f. DXY
g. Funding Rates
4. Technical Analysis
a. AVAX
b. MATIC
c. LINK
d. SOL
e. INJ
f. TIA
g. ARB
h. SEI
i. FTM
5. Project of the Week
6. Events

Disclaimer: This watchlist should be used in combination with your own due diligence and
extensive research. Do not use our watchlists as your only means to enter or exit a trade.
Our job is to educate you and share with you our findings and opinions- we are not here to
spoon-feed anyone… We hope you have a green week!
 ACCESSIBILITY:
1. Using the links above, you can manually navigate to any ticker or category of the
watchlist with ease. Specific images can be enlarged by clicking on the image and
then clicking on the link that pops up!

EXTRA MARKET NOTES:

1. Bitcoin spent most of the week within a tight range. Going into this week it looks
like we are setting up in a nice pattern, which will help us see a breakout. This week
is very weak in news, so market will have the chance to see some pure price action,
not affected by any news. The chart is becoming increasingly difficult, which will
make trading during February a more difficult task. I believe the market is looking
to roll over sometime soon, so expect some last pumps and then a rapid move down
later in February. Alts should be your focus on those last pumps so make sure to
view the alt setups below. Have a good week and trade carefully!!
2. Top Economic Announcements This Week (All Times in EST)
a. Mon, Feb 5 @ 10:00am - ISM Services PMI
b. Wed, Feb 7 @ 8:30am - Trade Balance
c. Wed, Feb 7 @ 1:01pm - 10-y Bond Auction
d. Thu, Feb 8 @ 8:30am - Unemployment Claims
3. Volatility is going to continue to dominate the markets with fundamental factors
such as the ongoing Ukraine-Russian War, Inflation headwinds, and instability
around the globe. Future downside risks are 100% a possibility at this point, using
the proper risk management techniques could easily help to offset any losses.
 Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis:

1. Last week I covered the Shrimp Net Position Change, this metric helped us visualize
addresses with less than 1 BTC and their behavior. The Shrimp behavior has been
moving up in recent weeks, near monthly issuance levels of 26.7k BTC. This behavior is
showing more accumulation by a smaller cohort of investors going into The Halving,
which has not been seen in previous cycles. Hoarding Bitcoin is becoming more real.
2. This week I am covering the Average Unrealized Profit/Loss Sent to Exchanges, provided
to us by Glassnode. This metric helps us visualize where investors have offloaded their
Bitcoin, in profit or at a loss.
3. The 2021 Bull Market saw a peak average profit of $10,500, with a peak average loss of
$4,200 in the May 2021 correction.
4. The second half of 2022, through the LUNA and Celsius collapse, peak loss reached
$5,200. This eventually recovered through the FTX collapse and going into 2023. Where
the average profit began moving back up.
5. This led us to the recent weeks near the ETF approval, where peak profit reached $3,100.
6. This is likely to go much higher in the coming year as Bitcoin rolls back into a bull
market.
7. It will be important to keep an eye on this chart as it will be very indicative of where we
will be positioned in the bull market, depending on where the average profit/loss is.
=====================================================================
 Bitcoin Technical Analysis:

1. We’ve seen the formation of a nice triangle over the last week, which I believe will be
central to the moves we will see in the coming week. Watch this coming week for a trap
around the $44k-$45k area. I don’t believe a breakout will happen there. If we do get
those prices, I will begin to take profits across the board and flip neutral.
2. This could help us form a lower high on the charts before a major correction. I take this
as a good opportunity ahead of what will come from The Halving which is coming in mid
April. We have a little less than 3 months to go.
3. I believe Bitcoin has put in a local top, and that top will not lead to a reversal, just a
correction that can last for a few months. This is healthy and will set us up for a greater
breakout towards the all time highs.
4. My main scenarios for this week:
1) A breakout of the triangle on the chart will lead prices to the $44,200 and
$44,800. This move will be the move I expect a lower high to be put in from a
macro level, bullish scenarios will be less important after this point. The only way
this is invalidated is if price can begin climbing above $45k and holding it above
there. If price returns higher, you can target $48k highs again.
2) Breaking below $41500 is a clear breakdown, this would validate the start of
some bearish market structure as we make new lows in the structure. This could
lead to a move going to the $38200 and $36400 supports.
5. I will be updating the charts and scenarios through the daily watchlists.
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 Broad Market Analysis:

$ETHUSD: Ethereum

1. ETH is not seeing the greatest structure development, probably indicative that things are
flipping and we will move in a different direction. With this structure, I will avoid trading
ETH and will focus on BTC and alts. I will revisit ETH when this chart is more
convincing, which could take weeks to months.
2. Currently, the only nice thing on the chart is the trendline coming from local highs. This
could see a quick breakout this week, with a move following what I expect from Bitcoin.
3. There are multiple filings for Ethereum Spot ETFs going around, they are currently
delayed as the SEC is not ready to list them. Expect some news about this stuff in the
coming months.
4. My main scenarios for this week:
1) Look for a breakout of the trendline and a move up towards $2350 and $2420.
This could follow similar moves to the Bitcoin price action, with some slight
outperformance. The lower high could be put around $2450. Any higher could
lead to a greater breakout, watch for new highs to be set as price breaks $2730.
2) Accepting below $2175 will be crucial to see us move back down into the
previous range. For now, we are holding this area. Look for some high timeframe
candle close below this level. Good targets are $2140 and $2020.
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 $TOTAL: Total Market Cap

1. This chart has been immensely important to my trading and I am happy to see major
levels get respected here. Since the morning where the ETFs got listed, we touched a
major resistance level at $1.8T. This could support the idea we are setting a local top for
the broad market.
2. A retracement to here could lead us to two major levels, where it will be interesting to
pick up longs and watch for support to hold, as we could consolidate above these levels
for months. Those two levels are $1.4T an $1.25T.
3. Alts have caught up to their yearly highs as Bitcoin kept pushing into new yearly highs,
the divergence we saw is closing in as BTC.D slowly stops rising. I do expect dominance
to start heading down, more on that after this page.
4. This chart is quite simple to understand. It could be another indicator of our potential
bottom, which has shown good results since this assumption has been made. Simply put,
we retested the same market value as the blow-off top in 2017 (blue line at $761B). Since
then we saw a nice bounce off that level, a good sign for the entire market.
5. The move from the lows led us to $1.8T, where a local top is likely to be in, and it will
lead to a consolidation for the coming months.
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 $BTC.D: Bitcoin Dominance

1. Bitcoin Dominance’s rising wedge looks good for a continuation to the downside. The
anticipation of the ETF news led to a move up before a rapid move back down.
2. Bitcoin Dominance is starting to form some bearish market structure and I believe it will
continue heading down over the coming months. Only to make a slight move back up
after The Halving, before continuing even lower for the next cycle.
3. The recent push on Bitcoin Dominance has led us to new highs not seen since April 2021.
This move reflects the market’s focus on Bitcoin as we are still within that phase. The
catalyst for Bitcoin Dominance to return lower was the Spot ETFs. As of now, this idea
holds true as the chart has reversed during the approval news.
4. The current spot that dominance is in can only have two scenarios.
1) BTC.D needs to step back above 54% to see it go any higher. This move higher
would be good during a long consolidation but would pain alts quite a bit. We
could keep moving towards 58%, which is another major level.
2) The rising wedge could prove to be a bearish signal for BTC.D and could lead to
a massive reversal going in 024. This would be very nice to see as the alt market
warms up for 2024. I would see BTC.D reaching 48% and lower pretty quickly.
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 $ETHBTC: Ethereum/Bitcoin

1. ETHBTC made a massive reversal as more volatility hit the market during the approval
period this past week. This volatility led to a quick sweep of the June 13, 2022 lows. This
sweep was a positive signal something was about to come for ETH.
2. ETHBTC retraced quite a bit, and we are now back at the yearly open. Let’s watch for a
reaction here, but I think ETH still generally has some weakness around here. I would
ignore until this becomes clearer.
3. I believe ETHBTC will spend a little time consolidating before making another major
push in breaking that downtrend. That is our next challenge on this chart.
4. More filings for ETH Spot ETFs will push ETH back above yearly highs, a breakout
there will most definitely be very focused on by all market participants, so I would expect
to see some outperformance, perhaps a break of that trendline.
5. I believe with the volatility set during the Spot ETF approval period, the cycle lows for
ETHBTC are in. These types of events set major inflection points on charts, and I believe
this chart to be one of them.
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 $BVOL: Volatility

1. BVOL’s chart over the last few months has done a good job at outlining where
consolidations happen and where impulses happen.
2. Volatility has made a move back below 1 as we consolidate, this is indicative of a major
move coming this week.
3. Bitcoin volatility is sitting at 0.90 as of writing this. Down 44.79% on the week, showing
the volatility decrease from the consolidation we’ve had this past week.
4. Volatility should always hover around 1. Too low or too high is bad, but we can always
get plays out of it which is great, this is why I like this indicator.
=====================================================================
 $DXY: US Dollar Index

1. DXY has been consistently moving down since inflation returned lower than previous
readings. DXY has been consistently decreasing and has shown good movement to the
downside as more economic data has come out. But overall, this could be a good sign for
upcoming bearish price action on DXY. With this, I believe the top is in.
2. The deviation is confirmed with this breakdown, so I believe DXY will continue
marching towards 100. We could see a steep move but that isn’t necessarily confirmed.
We will wait to see how this chart develops, but it seems to be more likely that a
breakdown has begun.
3. Fed did not raise interest rates this past week but did indicate that they do not plan on
cutting in March.
4. We have tested the range lows, I am looking for a breakdown of that level next.
5. DXY will continue to go down as inflation subsides into the 2% level and the Fed flips
more dovish in 2024.
6. DXY’s trend all depends on geopolitical events, as well as the Fed’s monetary and fiscal
policies.
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 Exchange Funding Rates

1. Here are the funding rates for top coins across major exchanges. This week’s funding
rates are back to normal as we are seeing alts correct against BTC.
2. The main coins I see with abnormal funding are ETH, MATIC, AVAX, and some smaller
altcoins. Monitor funding rates this week to see which coin has better potential.
3. For those who don't know what funding rates are, if funding is negative, shorts are paying
longs to keep positions open. If positive, longs are paying shorts to keep positions open.
4. The rate itself (e.g. 0.01%) is the percentage applied on your position before being taken
out or added and redistributed to your counterparty. This function helps market
participants keep balanced positions.
5. During periods of high Open Interest increase, firm funding rates can lead to a reversal in
price. Keep an eye on rates for this to play out on charts. This is something you can trade.
=====================================================================
 Technical Analysis:

$AVAX: Avalanche

1. AVAX had a really good uptrend since October leading it to $50 in December, where it
has been correcting since. This move has allowed it to reclaim some major levels, but the
correction for AVAX has now started.
2. We can expect price to consolidate in this area for a good while. The correction could
continue lower and AVAX could see a retest in the $25 area, which would set the
correction at -50% from the local top. So far, AVAX has set lows at $27.30, which I
expect to see one more sweep below before the correction is done and it spends the rest
of its time consolidating.
3. This correction will be another great chance to accumulate before a second leg up.
4. For a long position, look for a reclaim of the yearly open at $38.57, as price could break
out there and head towards $41.10 and $43.
5. For a short position, look for a firm breakdown of the $31.55 level, which has been
defended quite a bit. A breakdown of $31.55 will lead to acceptance below $30, which is
crucial for some bearish price action. Good targets following this would be $28 and
$25.70, where there is good support.
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 $MATIC: Polygon

1. Although MATIC has not seen the best price development in this range, the past week
saw MATIC sweep its range lows and reclaim it. As of writing this, MATIC is back
above its weekly open, which is a positive sign for a slight move up on the chart, which
could still then put in that lower high we are looking for across the charts.
2. Polygon has also started a major rebranding of MATIC to POL, and have been
announcing some other technological advancements for the project.
3. For a long position, look for MATIC to reclaim the $0.818 level, this can lead it to $0.842
and $0.887. A move above the $0.93 level could lead it to touch the yearly open at
$0.9708.
4. For a short position, look for a strong breakdown of the $0.738 level, this will quickly
bring price into a good correction where it could get down to support near $0.723 and
$0.685.
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 $LINK: Chainlink

1. Since LINK broke out of the $5.89-$6.42 range, it's been on a ravaging uptrend.This past
week saw more of the uptrend continue. The recent range is seeing another move higher
into the $18 area. I am being more careful on this pump and may begin looking for shorts
as LINK puts in a local top.
2. The launch of CCIP helped LINK pump. LINK is becoming bigger than it ever was and
CCIP will help LINK be used on other blockchains, making it a better currency around
the space and accelerating the potential of Ethereum.
3. For a long position, look for a breakout of $18.70, this will lead to a quick move to a
major resistance level at $20.10. Good targets are $19.25 and $20.10.
4. For a short position, look for a breakdown of $17.20 for a correction down to support
levels, good targets are $16.60 and $15.40.
5. Over the coming months, I am looking for price to touch $11.70 as I believe that will be a
good retest of a previous important level. This would be a good correction from the highs
and we will likely retest the recent range highs, which will look good structurally.
=====================================================================
 $SOL: Solana

1. The SOL uptrend has taken a good break since the last week of December. We’ve been in
a nice range since and we are currently sitting around the mid range, above the recent
trendline breakout.
2. For a long position, look for SOL to confirm a breakout of the yearly open at $101.70.
This would confirm another little push and SOL could move up to the $104.40 and $109
levels.
3. For a short this week, look for a breakdown of $92.50, this could lead price into previous
range levels, these levels are $86 and $78.80.
4. Ultimately, I believe SOL is on the right track to recovery, with on chain data looking
positive again. We will see how this ends up playing out this quarter. The first breakouts
will be important to lead price in the right direction.
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 $INJ: Injective

1. Injective has developed a great range as it reached new all time highs. This has been one
of the first coins from last cycle to make it out of the bear market and reach new highs so
quickly.
2. INJ developed this range between $29.20 and $43.50. This will help a lot with playing
these levels as this range continues to develop. We could also be seeing the early signs of
a distribution pattern with the deviation at the highs.
3. INJ is doing a good job at holding the yearly open but has not confirmed a major move
back above it yet, its just hanging close to it. A definite move above or below it has not
happened just yet.
4. For a long position, look for INJ to reclaim the yearly open at $35.788 and make a move
up towards $39.60. A breakout of $39.60 will easily lead us to $41.60 and $43, where we
will encounter the range highs once more.
5. For a short position, look for a strong breakdown of $32, this will confirm a move
towards the range lows. A breakdown of that will confirm price moving to $30 and
$27.70.
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 $TIA: Celestia

1. Celestia has been a great new coin to trade, the chart has been really clean and the moves
very solid in either direction. It has formed a good few levels that are now clear for use
on this chart which is why I added it to the weekly watchlist.
2. The chart looks more ready to top out. I would look for a move down on a breakdown.
Potential acceptance of $20 could lead it higher, but that is not confirmed.
3. For a long position, look for a breakout at $18.50. Good targets for this breakout at
$19.10 and $19.70. Above this, we could see a move towards $20 with acceptance above
that level if we can get an hourly close above $20.
4. For a short position, look for a breakdown of the monthly open at $16.20 which could
lead it to break down into the $16 area. A breakdown at $16.20 will easily lead price to
$15.30 and $13.70.
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 $ARB: Arbitrum

1. ARB has had an amazing uptrend in the recent weeks, and the uptrend is technically still
intact. Though the continuation of this uptrend is becoming more difficult so I would
expect a new range to develop.
2. ARB is currently sitting right at the level where it peaked in April 2023.
3. ARB has been a great recipient of the ETH volatility and it was a great beta play
alongside OP and LDO who were also good ETH beta plays.
4. For a long position, look for ARB to break the $1.88 level with some good momentum.
Good targets here are $2 and $2.10.
5. For a short position, look for some move under the yearly open at $1.5613. This may
begin to confirm the breakdown and bearish market structure. If this develops, good
targets are $1.47 and $1.30. This move would begin a nice correction for ARB.
=====================================================================
 $SEI: Sei

1. SEI has been an amazing performer in recent weeks and it is consolidating in a nice range
for the past weeks. I believe if alts can catch a bid in the early week, SEI will be a good
play for a move up. Keep watching the consolidation in this pattern. A breakout here
could be big before a local top is put in.
2. There is a good mid range level in the triangle at $0.71, staying above it is crucial for
price to step higher this week.
3. For a long position, look for a breakout of the monthly open at $0.65, this will easily lead
price towards the mid range at $0.708. To reach range highs around $0.84, it is crucial to
get above the mid range.
4. For a short position, look for price acceptance below $0.635. This will lead it to break
down from the pattern and price will see a deeper correction. Good targets are the yearly
open at $0.5602 and potentially lower near $0.50.
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 $FTM: Fantom

1. FTM has been correcting since its highs near $0.56, it is now at $0.38 which is 33%
lower. This has been a good correction for FTM. I am keeping a close eye on it because
compared to other alts, it does have a pretty good high timeframe setup.
2. There is a nice trendline ahead of us here, if price could get above this, then a good
breakout could come about.
3. For a long position, look for FTM to break the $0.40 level. Good targets are $0.437 and
$0.465.
4. For a short position, look for breakdown of $0.338, this is where price could see a dump
back to the $0.323 and $0.31 levels.
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 Project of the Week

Flare (FLR)
Utility Fork for the XRP Ledger

Price: $0.0292
Market Cap: $952,581,508
1 Month Performance: 59.31%
1 Year Performance: -28.53%
All-Time High: $2.25

Flare (FLR) is the native cryptocurrency of the Flare Network, a blockchain platform designed to
bring smart contract functionality to non-Turing complete tokens, with a particular focus on
XRP. Unlike traditional Layer 1 blockchains, Flare operates as a utility fork of the XRP Ledger,
enhancing its capabilities. The primary innovation of Flare is its introduction of smart contracts
to networks that lack native support for them, such as XRP. Smart contracts allow for
programmable and automated agreements, expanding the use cases of these tokens beyond
simple transactions. Developers can build decentralized applications (dApps) on the Flare
Network, enabling a range of applications including decentralized finance (DeFi) and more.
FLR, the native token of the Flare Network, serves multiple roles. It is used for staking to help
secure the network through a mechanism known as the Federate Byzantine Agreement (FBA).
Stakers are rewarded for their participation and play a crucial role in maintaining the integrity
and security of the Flare Network. Flare Network acts as a trustless bridge for assets from other
blockchains, like XRP and Litecoin, allowing them to benefit from smart contract functionality.
This trustless gateway mechanism facilitates the creation of DeFi applications, enabling users to
interact with various assets on the Flare Network in a secure and decentralized manner.

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 Events

TradeTech FX 2024 USA: Conference: “TradeTech FX returns in February 2024 (13 – 15) and
we’re pleased to announce that this year the event is taking place at the beautiful Eden Roc in
Miami! TradeTech FX has firmly established itself as the leading buy side focused FX gathering
in the US, with over 700 FX professionals expected to join us including representation from all
the leading global buy side firms.” -Miami, FL, USA, Feb 13-Feb 15, 2024

Blockchain Developers Berlin: Conference: “​Join us at the heart of Berlin’s tech scene for an
exclusive gathering of blockchain enthusiasts and developers! Blockchain Developers Berlin in
the HUBRAUM – Tech Incubator of Deutsche Telekom; is set to be an immersive experience
where the brightest minds in blockchain technology come together to share insights, discuss the
latest trends, and connect with like-minded professionals. Listen to talks by thought leaders of
the Blockchain space.” -Winterfeldtstraße 21, 10781 Berlin, Germany, Feb 17, 2024

Crypto and the Law: A Deep Dive into Legal Frameworks: Conference: ““Crypto and the
Law” Masterclass is an opportunity to understand the latest European crypto regulations in
2024, ensuring law firms stay current with legal frameworks and to enable exchanges to
proactively adapt their operational strategies to comply with new requirements.” -Makati,
Philippines, Feb 26, 2024