Crypto Weekly Watchlist

December 5 - December 9, 2022

1. Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis

2. Bitcoin Technical Analysis
3. Broad Market Analysis
a. Ethereum
b. Total Market Cap
c. Bitcoin Dominance
d. ETH/BTC
e. Volatility
f. DXY
g. Funding Rates
4. Technical Analysis
a. BNB
b. XRP
c. ADA
d. SOL
e. DOT
f. MATIC
g. AVAX
h. ATOM
i. LINK
j. ALGO
5. Project of the Week
6. Events

Disclaimer: This watchlist should be used in combination with your own due diligence and
extensive research. Do not use our watchlists as your only means to enter or exit a trade.
Our job is to educate you and share with you our findings and opinions- we are not here to
spoon-feed anyone… We hope you have a green week!
 ACCESSIBILITY:
1. Using the links above, you can manually navigate to any ticker or category of the
watchlist with ease.
2. Certain Tradingview Images Can Be Enlarged By Clicking On The Image and
Clicking On The Link.

EXTRA MARKET NOTES:

1. Not as many economic announcements this week as last week, but definitely a heavy
week ahead for price action. Excited to see what setups come by for us, I will be
reporting as much as I can on the bot. Look out for any news from Sam
Bankman-Fried this week, as he may appear on more Twitter Spaces and
interviews. Some cool info about what happened at FTX will likely continue to come
out. As always, trade safe!
2. Top Economic Announcements This Week (CLICK HERE)
a. Mon, Dec 5 @ 10:00am - ISM Services PMI
b. Tue, Dec 6 @ 8:30am - Trade Balance
c. Wed, Dec 7 @ 10:30am - Crude Oil Inventories
d. Thu, Dec 8 @ 8:30am - Unemployment Claims
e. Fri, Dec 9 8:30am - Core PPI m/m
f. Fri, Dec 9 8:30am - PPI m/m
g. Fri, Dec 9 10:00am - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
h. Fri, Dec 9 10:00am - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
3. Volatility is going to continue to dominate the markets with fundamental factors
such as the ongoing Ukraine-Russian War, Inflation headwinds, and instability
around the globe. Future downside risks are 100% a possibility at this point, using
the proper risk management techniques could easily help to offset any losses.
 Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis:

Bitcoin Miner Balances; 1 year perspective

1. Bitcoin mining is a highly competitive and very lucrative industry. Unfortunately, not
everyone can win, it's much harder than it looks. Bitcoin miners, big or small, are
incentivized to secure the Bitcoin network through validating the blocks produced by
network users’ transactions being bundled up and distributed for verifying. This was
Satoshi’s goal when designing Bitcoin. As Bitcoin grew more, users were incentivized
more to secure the network. This self realizing design is what encourages more miners to
step in and take the chance to share the Bitcoin block rewards.
2. This idea gave way for individuals with deep pockets to get into Bitcoin mining and set
up large infrastructure with hundreds or even thousands of mining machines, graphics
cards, and tens of thousands of watts of energy usage per month.
3. All of this costs money, and the Bitcoin they generate pays for it. But when Bitcoin
tumbles due to external events (such as FTX Collapse) and macro economic pressure,
their businesses take a hit as well. Suddenly, they aren't able to produce Bitcoin as
efficiently because their revenue is lower. Their profit margins become slimmer and
sometimes turn negative.
4. Bitcoin miners take on excessive amounts of debt to be able to turn on more machines, if
not, they will get squeezed out of the game. That is what contributed to the massive rise
in the network’s hashrate over the past few months. At some point, that rapid incline
breaks, and someone gets hurt.
=====================================================================
 Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis (Continued)

5. Bitcoin miners have recently been selling lots of Bitcoin from their reserves, or the
Bitcoin they generate over the month. They have to do this to cover their electricity costs,
labor costs, interest expenses, and property costs.
6. As mentioned before, the revenue they generate from Bitcoin mining is heavily reliant on
the price of Bitcoin. As of recently, Bitcoin price is back where it was in November 2020
and December 2017. With lower issuance than the previous epoch, Bitcoin mining is
twice as difficult not counting in the difficulty adjustment that has been made to the
network through those years.
7. This is another big part of every bear market, and even more of one this time around. The
miner capitulation we are seeing is a necessary part of squeezing out those who are
overleveraged and do not deserve to be participants in this industry. The miners who will
fail are the ones who are over leveraged with debt. They often have to turn on/off their
machines to save costs, this is what contributes to the volatile hashrate we see and direct
effects on Bitcoin price.
8. Drops in balances usually mean one of two things, Bitcoin is being sent to exchanges to
be sold or they are reorganizing wallets, therefore it isn't selling pressure.
9. Make your own judgment to what this is, though it is very likely we see more miners
getting squeezed out of the game. We have already seen a few miners fall upwards of
75% over the last few months and some are considering bankruptcy due to this pressure.
10. This is great to continue looking at in case more miners have to capitulate, we have
something to react to.
=====================================================================
 Bitcoin Technical Analysis:

Our current range; still developing well

1. The 15600-18000 range we are in currently is developing well. This range will be our
macro range until 17935 is reclaimed, where it’ll be easy to see 20k+. 17935 is the level
we bounced at at the June 18 lows. We would just be playing a reclaim of that level to be
optimistic about a breakout.
2. We are consolidating in another pennant just below the monthly open, that is our main
resistance right now.
3. The range Support/Resistance zones are also very clear and look easy to trade. I will be
very focused on them to play this range.
4. For this week, I do see the possibility of a 3-tap setup forming. This would mean going
back down to 15600 one last time before seeing a rapid bounce. This also may never
happen and we can start trending up as early as this week. Legacy markets are continuing
higher and many shorts are being squeezed there, its only a matter of time until they sync
up again.
5. These are the two scenarios I expect to play out this week:
1) Continue up and break 17400, where we see many shorts get squeezed and we can
easily reclaim 17935, the key level mentioned before.
2) Fakeout above the monthly open, break back down the pennant and make our way
to 15600, where we see the 3-tap setup and then we trend up very fast.
=====================================================================
 Broad Market Analysis:

$ETHUSD: Ethereum

1. Ethereum’s recent trends have been easier to trade than Bitcoin due to it having a larger
range breadth than Bitcoin. This helps us point to more accurate moves in the market.
2. Although Ethereum is no longer in season, its cycle is rapidly heating up and the range is
developing nicely as well.
3. I’m still looking for more sideways movement from ETH, the bottom diagonal range is
still looking to hold, I don't expect that trend to be lost anytime soon. We might see a
similar scenario to what I outlined in Bitcoin, just more volatile.
4. For a long, look for a break of the monthly open, easily breaking that with fast
momentum but just like the scenario I outlined in Bitcoin, we could fakeout above that
and then correct to range lows.
5. For a short, target the range lows, similar to where Bitcoin at 15600.
=====================================================================
 $TOTAL: Total Market Cap

1. As said last week, This chart is quite simple to understand. It could be another indicator
of our potential bottom. Simply, we are retesting the same market value as the blow-off
top in 2017.
2. We are still at the same total market value as 2017, retracing all the way back from 3
Trillion. The way back up has a lot of space.
3. This week, I’d like to outline the RSI bullish divergence that has appeared between the
June bottom and the recent lows. Bullish divergences are great, especially on high time
frames.
4. As of now, I am focused on this retest.
=====================================================================
 $BTC.D: Bitcoin Dominance

1. This macro range on Bitcoin Dominance is one of the best charts we have right now to
understand the state of the market.
2. Just before the June 18 low made on Bitcoin. Dominance had topped at the retest of the
top of the macro range, after rapidly falling to sub 40%, making new dominance lows and
bouncing in September.
3. We have been slightly sideways since. Only starting to see some action now.
4. We are still holding the yearly lows. A certain thesis I have supports a Crypto supercycle,
where dominance will rapidly break down within a few months. We will have to see how
that develops.
5. The current spot that dominance is in can only have two scenarios.
1) We retrace to the middle of the range, around 44%, before breaking down even
lower and entering 30%. This is a macro perspective that would take ~6 months to
play out.
2) We breakdown directly from here and enter the 30%, unforeseen in previous bear
markets. Dominance has always had room to go back up before the main bull
event.
=====================================================================
 $ETHBTC: Ethereum/Bitcoin

1. ETHBTC continues to be pretty neutral, not much from it at all and I'm not expecting
much from it soon either.
2. The yearly open is very close, with less than a month left until the yearly close, we could
see the market want to close above it. I will be weighing that as a possibility closer to the
end of December.
3. We will have to wait, watch, and react to whatever happens if we want to trade around
this chart.
4. Will continue monitoring this chart closely.
=====================================================================
 $BVOL: Volatility

1. For this week I added the price of Bitcoin price (Orange line). You can clearly see the
correlation between both.
2. We were again under 1 on the volatility and quickly bounced, we are seeing a potential
start to another big move.
3. The volatility is potentially why I see charts hinting some downside this week, the same
scenario I outlined before where Bitcoin goes to 15600.
4. Will be sending daily alerts on this when something is starting to move. Keeping a close
eye on this one.
=====================================================================
 Volatility (Continued): Bollinger Bands

1. We are still seeing another squeeze in Bollinger Bands, a breakout is just around the
corner if we see them expanding.
2. Volatility on Bollinger Bands is very low again. It is certain we will see increased
volatility this week.
3. This chart supports the previous thesis presented on Bitcoin Volatility and potential price
action this coming week.
4. Will be keeping a close eye on this too!
=====================================================================
 $DXY: US Dollar Index

1. As mentioned last week, this year’s DXY rally has put a lot of stress on risk assets. The
chart is suggesting that could be over. For the first time in this big uptrend, the tension
has broken.
2. We have broken the trendline I spoke about last week and are seeing breaks in bullish
structure that were established earlier this year. This is important as it may prove trivial
for DXY in the coming months. Bearish structure is starting to build up more and more.
3. The next area of support where DXY may stop and consolidate for a bit is 103.5 level.
4. We broke the logarithmic uptrend created throughout this year. In light of these events, it
is showing a potential slowdown in risk-off assets being preferred by investors.
5. DXY’s trend all depends on geopolitical events and federal reserve monetary and fiscal
policy. We have a few events this week that will create a few moves in DXY, potentially
helping markets see higher or lower moves.
=====================================================================
 Exchange Funding Rates

1. Here are the funding rates for top coins across major exchanges. Observations can be
made on Bitcoin, Ethereum, MATIC, SOL, DOT, XRP, and LINK.
2. BTC and ETH rates this week are rather stable. Alt coins are where the imbalances are.
3. For those who don't know what funding rates are, if funding is negative, shorts are paying
longs to keep positions open. If positive, longs are paying shorts to keep their positions
open.
4. The rate itself (e.g. 0.001%) is the percentage applied on your position before being taken
out or added and redistributed to your counterparty. This function helps market
participants keep balanced positions.
=====================================================================
 Technical Analysis:

$BNB: Binance Coin

1. A nice falling wedge has formed on BNB this week, look for a potential break to the
upside, if not, this pattern to continue forming and then a good breakout to the upside.
2. For a long position, look for this consolidation to continue, it's possible the falling wedge
gets invalidated and then becomes a flag, then it should break out to higher levels. Targets
would be the monthly open at 301 and recent highs at 317.
3. For a short, target would be the recent low area BNB was previously at. Targets would be
around 265 after a confirmed breakdown of the pattern.
4. Overall, not looking for a trade on this one compared to other alts.
=====================================================================
 $XRP: Ripple

1. XRP continues to consolidate at the uncertainty of the SEC lawsuit, though it moves
quite well with the market. It’s basically in line with everything else.
2. A break of the current triangle it is in would be bullish up to breaking the recent highs,
we could travel way above that afterwards.
3. In the funding rates, XRP was negative across the board, showing more signs of shorts
this week.
4. Any reclaim of $0.43 would be very bullish for XRP, higher prices can be easily targeted.
5. For a long position, I’d target a breakout of the triangle and look for $0.408 and $0.422.
6. For a short position, I’d target a breakdown of the triangle and look for $0.372 and $0.35.
=====================================================================
 $ADA: Cardano

1. Cardano is still hanging on for dear life on that trendline. I am still avoiding this coin and
will not trade it until I see a reason to.
2. I would be looking for a break of that upper trendline, until then Cardano is in my no
touch watchlist. But it is a big coin so I will cover it until it’s worth it to play it.
3. As of this week, I don't prefer ADA for any setup. The guidance I gave above should be
enough in case anything happens. I just don't see much happening for this one to be a
good contender for any long or short.
=====================================================================
 $SOL: Solana

1. Solana is still digesting the FTX collapse. This chart has a long way ahead before a
macro uptrend materializes.
2. More info is still coming out about FTX and Alameda’s involvement in Solana over the
last 2 years. They are worrisome and I do not plan to touch Solana.
3. The macro chart is still horrendous. The coin is too volatile to trade and not worth the risk
or hassle of monitoring the trade.
4. I will continue waiting on Solana, though one thing I can say. If you truly believe in
Solana’s future (I don't really do), you should be buying at these levels.
5. I will not involve myself with this coin for now.
6. For a long position, any break of the symmetrical triangle will target $15 and will yield
decent upside. Potentially seeing the $18-$20 level.
7. For a short position, targeting $12.30 again would be reasonable if any downside
materializes across the market.
8. My plan on Solana remains unchanged, I don't see my thesis changing in the next 2-3
weeks. You might see the same ideas presented in the coming weeks with tweaks due to
how the chart may develop.
=====================================================================
 $DOT: Polkadot

1. From a macro perspective, Polkadot is still one of the best charts. Like I said last week,
there is great confluence at the $5.40 level.
2. I still like DOT here and am still a buyer between $5-$7. I don't see a reason not to be
bullish on DOT’s chart. I believe we will see upside rather soon.
3. For a long position this week, a break of the coming trendline followed by a retest would
be ideal. We can easily see $6 afterwards. I do expect DOT to outperform slightly in the
coming week(s).
4. I do not support a short setup on DOT as it would not last long and not yield the best
results.
=====================================================================
 $MATIC: Polygon

1. MATIC has successfully moved up to the $0.90 area this week. I look forward to seeing
this hold and outperformance to lead it up to $1+.
2. I still do believe under $1 is a generational opportunity, MATIC is doing amazing things.
I believe that Polygon will have amazing growth in the next 24 months. It is well
positioned to capitalize on ecosystem growth.
3. Polygon has been one of the best performers of this bear market, going from $0.33 to
$1.33 in just a few months. I do not believe MATIC will make a new low at $0.30
4. This performance is reminiscent of other bear market performers back in 2018 who had
incredible gains in the coming bull market.
5. For the coming week, I see the pennant I drew continuing the breakout, if not, it will
trend down with the rest of the market. I'm not ruling out the possibility of downside.
6. We will wait for MATIC to find stability before continuing the next leg up to $2.
7. As of now, trade this coin as much as you want, but make sure to accumulate sub $1 and
wait for a trade setup to pop up in the next few weeks. The market does not have enough
definition yet.
=====================================================================
 $AVAX: Avalanche

1. AVAX is another great chart in this market, easily one of the best ones out there.
2. AVAX has also seen a bit of resiliency in this bear market. We have not broken under the
last summer lows unlike other coins.
3. AVAX is a great coin to accumulate at this moment. The technology is great and the use
case is definitely there. Under $20 is good short-term buys, under $40 is good long-term
buys. (See project of the week page!)
4. The trade from last week did really well as AVAX outperformed.
5. For a long position, a continuation to $15 would be good. The $15 level will be heavily
contested, so if it does get there, trade carefully.
6. I do not support a short setup on AVAX as it would not last long and not yield the best
results. If you want to short, I believe AVAX will be in line with the rest of the market.
7. I still want to wait to get more definition before making larger orders but AVAX is
definitely one of the top coins on my radar in the coming months.
=====================================================================
 $ATOM: Cosmos

1. Cosmos has one of the best charts out there, I do believe it has the capability to start a
bull trend before other coins in the market.
2. The recent retest of that confluence zone around $10 has shown great structural resiliency
at that specific level.
3. From a macro perspective, I am looking for that area to hold and it is possible this is one
of the last times Cosmos visits that area.
4. We will see a large move from ATOM in the coming months as the project continues to
build and investors continue to accumulate.
5. Reclaiming $11.25 would be a great bullish confirmation for higher prices in the coming
weeks/months.
6. For a long position, a break of the bull flag I drew on the chart would target price around
$11.
7. I do not support a short setup on ATOM as it would not last long and not yield the best
results. If you want to short, I believe ATOM will be in line with the rest of the market.
8. A macro long setup will show up within a few weeks as well.
=====================================================================
 $LINK: Chainlink

1. LINK’s chart is my favorite chart in this market currently. It has had the most structure
since the June bottom.
2. We will continue to see LINK respect this range until broken.
3. This past week’s performance has been great and has followed the thesis I laid out last
week.
4. LINK is a very old coin and has cemented its spot in the crypto space, this will be a
leader in infrastructure going into the future of blockchain technology.
5. The staking narrative is continuing to gain traction. Once staking is released for LINK,
the coins are likely to do very well. The beta for staking releases on December 6!
6. Last week’s trade idea was successful as LINK trended above the mid range. We then
saw it consolidate.
7. LINK has now formed a hidden bullish divergence, I expect this to push prices even
higher, potentially above $8 this week.
8. I do not support a short setup on LINKas it would not last long and not yield the best
results. If you want to short, I believe LINKwill be a bit more volatile than the rest of the
market.
=====================================================================
 $ALGO: Algorand

1. ALGO has taken somewhat of a hit after visiting range highs due to the FTX collapse.
2. ALGO has been consolidating really well in this range I outlined on the chart.
3. A break to any side would yield a big move. I would expect the top range to break with
more volume and prices to reclaim 20-30% higher.
4. A break to the downside may form a deviation below the low of range, that would be a
good long opportunity. I don't expect ALGO to continue down more than 10% below the
low of range.
5. For a long position, target low of range around $0.28. Do not try to play higher prices
unless the setup presents itself, I will update it on the daily alerts if that does happen.
6. For now I will be waiting this one out. Though I do believe a great opportunity is
building up on this chart.
=====================================================================
 Project of the Week

Avalanche (AVAX)
Layer 1 Blockchain

Price: 13.70$
Market Cap: $4,235,513,490
1 Month Performance: -24.24%
YTD Performance: -87.52%
All-Time High: $147

Avalanche is a layer one blockchain that functions as a platform for decentralized applications
and custom blockchain networks. Compared to Ethereum, it aims to have a higher transaction
output of up to 6,500 transactions per second while not compromising scalability.
This is made possible by Avalanche’s unique architecture. The Avalanche network consists of
three individual blockchains: the X-Chain, C-Chain and P-Chain. Each chain has a distinct
purpose, which is radically different from the approach Bitcoin and Ethereum use, namely
having all nodes validate all transactions.
Avalanche attempts to solve the blockchain trilemma, which posits that blockchains cannot
achieve a sufficient degree of decentralization at scale. A consequence of this are high gas fees,
as is often the case on Ethereum.
To solve this problem, Avalanche designed three interoperable blockchains.

● The Exchange Chain (X-Chain) is employed to create and exchange the native AVAX
tokens and other assets. Similar to the ERC-20 standard on Ethereum, these tokens follow
a set of standardized rules.
● The Contract Chain (C-Chain) hosts smart contracts and decentralized applications. It has
its own Avalanche Virtual Machine, similar to the Ethereum Virtual Machine, allowing
developers to fork EVM-compatible DApps.
 ● The Platform Chain (P-Chain) coordinates network validators, tracks active subnets and
enables the creation of new subnets. Subnets are sets of validators, sort of like a validator
cartel. Each subnet can be validating several blockchains, but a blockchain can only be
validated by one subnet.

This division of computing tasks enables higher throughput without compromising on

decentralization. For instance, private blockchains on the network could require its subnet’s
validators to be sufficiently geographically decentralized or comply with certain regulations.
Following this modular structure, Avalanche improves its interoperability with other blockchains
wishing to integrate with the Avalanche ecosystem. Furthermore, the two different consensus
mechanisms are designed with each blockchain’s requirements in mind, further improving their
efficiency.
The total supply of AVAX is 720 million. Its token distribution is as follows:

● 2.5% - seed sale: 10% released on mainnet launch and the rest being released every 3 months.
● 3.5% - private sale: 10% released on mainnet launch and the rest being released every 3 months.
● 10% - public sale: 10% released on mainnet launch and 15% released every 3 months over a
period of 18 months.
● 9.26% - allocated to the foundation: released over 10 years.
● 7% - community endowment: released over 12 months.
● 0.27% - testnet incentive program: released over 1 year.
● 5% - strategic partners: released over 4 years.
● 2.5% - airdrops: released over 4 years.
● 10% - team: released over 4 years.
● 50% staking rewards

Staking AVAX currently provides an annual reward of 11.57%, with the minimum time for
staking being two weeks with a minimum of 2,000 AVAX.

=====================================================================
 Events

Chainlink: LINK Staking Launch: “Chainlink Staking v0.1 Early Access launches on Ethereum
mainnet December 6th at 12PM ET.” - December 6, 2022

Benzinga’s Future of Crypto: “McDermott is pleased to sponsor Future of Crypto By Benzinga

on December 7, 2022, in New York City. Known as the biggest day of the year for crypto
enthusiasts, entrepreneurs, investors and networkers, Future of Crypto brings together the
brightest minds in crypto and dealmaking. Joe Evans, Co-Chair of the FinTech & Blockchain
Group and Head of Crypto Litigation and Regulatory Defense at McDermott, is attending the
conference taking place at Pier Sixty.” - December 7, 2022

IOTA: Community Regulation Call: “Keep up with the regulatory landscape of crypto & #DLT
by listening to the first #IOTA Community Regulation Call - in English or Spanish.” - December
7, 2022

Radix: RadFi 2022: “The #Radix Engine makes smart contract logic Simple, Secure, Reusable,
Composable. How will this upgrade the $400,000,000,000,000 global financial system? Find out
at #RadFi2022 on December 8th; sign up now!” - December 8, 2022

Secret Network: Shockwave Omega: “NEW: Announcing Shockwave Omega - coming

December 13th. Our third and final Shockwave mainnet upgrade replaces our WebAssembly
engine with Wasm3, improves dApp performance, and readies us for Secret 2.0!” - December 13,
2022

A lot of events are coming in December! Will write them here in the coming weeks.