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com/thede edge/status/1692132282495357302
@thede edge
12:12 PM · 17 de ago de 2023
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There are 4 Phases of a Bull market. We’re nearing the end of Phase 1.
Here's how to play market cycles so you don’t screw up your best chance at generational wealth.
Here’s your playbook for:
1) Navigating each phase of the bull market
2) Maximizing your pro ts
3) and avoiding the most common traps.
Action Plan:
1. Cut your Losers and add to your winners. Don’t become emotionally tied to your bags. Just
because a project did a 5x doesn’t mean it can’t do another 10x from there. Look at the metrics,
momentum, and sentiment. Be brutal with cutting your losers.
2. Take pro ts on the way UP. No one can time the top perfectly. Don’t try to squeeze every cent
out of a trade. Create a take-pro t system and stick to it.
3. Be careful of taking on too many risks. This is where people start using leveraging, tapping into
their home equity/retirement accounts, or selling their BTC / ETH to chase shitcoins. You
should be risk on, but don’t be redacted about it.
4. Lower Your IQ - Some of the best performers will have the worst fundamentals. The
tokenomics will be complete shit. But remember this: prices only go up when other people buy.
And people are too stupid to understand the high iq plays. Don’t mid-curve it.
5. Cult Leaders - This is where cult leaders start gaining power. They know how to pump tokens
and sway emotions. Inevitably, cult leaders all seem to die off in the end. You can either hop in
early for the ride and take pro ts before it crashes or avoid them altogether.
6. Don’t Ignore Retail - It’s easy to get caught up in the Crypto Twitter DeFi echo chamber where
everyone circlejerks each other over “real yield curve war ywheel effects.” Retail doesn’t
understand any of that shit. Go to places where they hang out like Reddit and YouTube
comments.
7. Focus. Find a few sectors to specialize in. It's impossible to keep up with the entire market. Be
ok missing a few bets, then entering too late and becoming exit liquidity. Build your squad now
to cover your blind spots.
This is where retail users start FLOODING in. They’re entering phase 3 out of 4 (In their heads,
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they think they’re entering Phase 2 out of 5). Bull markets are self-reinforcing. As the price
goes up, this drives fomo. There’s a positive feedback loop that keeps driving prices higher and
higher. Everything goes up. $10k in a shitcoin can turn into life-changing gains. You can’t get a
haircut or hop into an Uber without hearing about Crypto.
FOMO and Euphoria kick in. It feels like the party will never end, and all common sense goes
out the window. People start quitting their jobs to become full-time Crypto traders. Others will
sell their house to invest in Crypto. Everyone’s in a fucking great mood.
• Financial Youtubers like MeetKevin, Max Maher, and Graham Stephen will start uploading 3+
Crypto videos daily.
• Mainstream brands like Pepsi and McDonalds will start mentioning Crypto for clout.
Mainstream celebrities try to cash in through sponsorships or launch their NFT collections.
• Everyone's Flexing. Rolex Submariners on the timeline. New cars. When there’s too much
bragging on your Twitter timeline, your spider senses should be going off.
Everyone’s going to try to convince you that this time’s different. You have to ght against your
instinct. The most important thing during this phase is thinking about your exit plan. Be level-
headed and realize that the party’s not going to last forever. Take chips off the table. Your future
self is praying that you’re not an idiot. If you don’t take pro ts, the markets will take them
back.
What goes up might come down - the peak of the bull run has peaked. And now everyone’s
wondering if that was the peak or if it will extend into a “super cycle.” They’ll try to tell you
that this time is different - we’ve nally gone mainstream! Watch for super cycle chatter,
Bitcoin lengthening theories, or made-up charts. The cycle’s going to last a few more years!
Remember, everyone’s nancially incentivized to keep the party going. Have to keep the
audience engaged for that sponsorship money. Must keep getting more liquidity into the
shitcoins. And there will be moments of glimmer and hope. Bitcoin peaked in November 2021.
But there was still action with OHM forks, FTM / Solidly, and Luna. Once prices crash, this is
where Capo emerges to say, “I told you so,” after missing the 2-year bull cycle and generational
wealth.
/ What Gives me So Much Conviction That There Will Be Another Bull Market? I’ve staked my
career and the next decade of my life to DeFi. I have the utmost conviction in this space. I’m
going to make it simple.
Life fucking sucks for the average person and is getting worse.
• Credit card debt at a record high
• Everyone’s debt is at a record high
• Student loan re-payments are starting soon
• Credit cards interest rates are at a record high
• Interest expense on debt to reach record high
• Average monthly payment for a new car at a record high
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• And don’t get me started on housing prices
Society and culture have turned life into ultra-hard mode for everyone. Going to college and
getting a job isn’t enough to survive and own a home. The cost of living keeps rising, and the
middle class is disappearing. All this is happening while societal pressure to succeed keeps
increasing. No one in the new generation is interested in maxing out their 401k and getting rich
when they’re 65 (I’m speaking as a Boglehead). They want to get rich now. Everyone wants
instant grati cation. Everyone’s dopamine receptors are fried. There’s pressure to show off a
fantastic lifestyle and to show everyone you’re the main character. Basically…humans are
greedy and will want the 100x. Crypto’s not just selling a new nancial infrastructure - it’s
selling dreams. And there’s no faster way for people to realize their dreams than Crypto. Crypto
is our best chance of making it and not just settling for a life of survival.
P.s. If this would be useful to your audience, then help me out by giving this a retweet.
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