Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621

DOI 10.1007/s11069-017-2783-9

ORIGINAL PAPER

Storm climate on the Danube delta coast: evidence

of recent storminess change and links with large-scale
teleconnection patterns

Florin I. Zăinescu1 • Florin Tătui1 • Nikolay N. Valchev2 •

Alfred Vespremeanu-Stroe1

Received: 27 July 2015 / Accepted: 11 February 2017 / Published online: 20 February 2017
Ó Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017

Abstract This paper presents an overview of storminess along the Danube delta coast
since 1949 by analysing wind and wave data and discusses the influences of teleconnec-
tions on climate variability. To this end, a five-category storm classification is proposed
based on wind speed intensity and storm duration. On average, this coast experiences
30 storms/year occurring predominantly in winter, three of them considered severe (cat-
egories III–IV). The extreme storms (cat. V) endanger most the coastal settlements and the
back-beach ecosystems (sand dunes, wetlands, lagoons) and have a mean recurrence rate of
7 years, but occur with a large inter-annual variability more frequent during the late 1960s,
the 1970s and the 1990s. The prevalence of northern storms, in particular for the severe
ones ([90% frequency for wind speeds[20 m/s) is responsible for the vigorous southward
longshore sediment transport, which shaped the Danube delta physiognomy over the last
millennia. The application of the newly developed energetic (Storm Severity Index—SSI)
and morphologic (Storm Impact Potential—SIP) proxies allowed the better assessment of
both the storm strength and the temporal variation in storm energy. It appears that storm
climate follows a cyclic pattern with successive periods of 7–9 years of high, moderate and
low storminess in accordance with the main teleconnections patterns (North Atlantic
Oscillation—NAO, East Atlantic oscillation—EA, East Atlantic/Western Russia—EAWR,
Scandinavian oscillation—SCAND). If NAO succeeded to explain best most of the
storminess evolution (r = -0.76 for 1962–2005), it failed during the latest decade (since

& Florin Tătui

florin.tatui@geo.unibuc.ro
Florin I. Zăinescu
florinzainescu@yahoo.com
Nikolay N. Valchev
valchev@io-bas.bg
Alfred Vespremeanu-Stroe
fredi@geo.unibuc.ro
1
Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, 1 N. Bălcescu Blvd, 010041 Bucharest, Romania
2
Institute of Oceanology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 40 Parvi May Bul., 9000 Varna, Bulgaria

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600 Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621

2006) when an unprecedented low in storminess occurred. There is also evidence of

increased southern circulation during the latter period, associated with a reversal of cor-
relation with NAO (from negative to positive). Significant correlations were also found for
the EA, EAWR and SCAND (r = -0.55, 0.56, 0.55, respectively, significant at p \ 0.01)
for all the study period suggesting that besides NAO, the north-western Black Sea coast
storminess is considerably influenced by several modes of climate variability, most
notable the EA and the EAWR, which succeed to address the recent decrease in storminess.

Keywords Storms  Climate change  Wind hazard  Wave climate  Coastal erosion 
NAO

1 Introduction

Many coasts worldwide experience high magnitude wind and wave events corresponding
to the tropical and extra-tropical cyclones tracks. The distinct seasonality of storm climate
is a general characteristic of the northern hemisphere coasts, where mid-latitude cyclones
are frequent in winter. By contrast, the southern hemisphere coasts experience extra-
tropical (mid-latitude) cyclones all year-round and accordingly the swell is persistent year-
round (Short 1999). Approaching Mediterranean (extra-tropical) cyclones, which follow
different tracks over the Pontic region (Black Sea, Aegean Sea, Balkans, Anatolia), make
up over 80% of storm cases on the Romanian coast (Maheras et al. 2009).
Storms are recurrent, high magnitude wind and wave events with profound impacts on
the coast in terms of morphology, evolution, erosion susceptibility and human and natural
systems flood vulnerability. Storms shape the coastal environment imposing short-term
episodes of erosion, dune scarping, beach lowering, surf zone widening and high rates of
sediment transport (nearshore and aeolian). During extreme storms, flooding, dune
destruction (Ferreira et al. 2009), barrier disintegration (Masselink and van Heteren 2014),
sediment transport beyond the surf zone to unusual depth (Budillon et al. 2006) usually
result from the combined action of waves and wind on a raised water level (storm surge),
depending on the wind direction relative to the coast (Haerens et al. 2012) on one hand, and
the pre-storm coastal morphology, on the other (Hequette et al. 2001). Although
destructive behaviour is typical to storm events, it is not uncommon for storms to generate
accretion as in the case of the oblique offshore directed south-west storms on the Atlantic
coast of the USA producing upwelling currents which result in onshore directed sediment
transport (Hill et al. 2004).
Storms have been found to exhibit large multi-decadal variations in the North Atlantic
and European regions (Maheras et al. 2001; Clarke and Rendell 2009; Lionello et al. 2012;
Wang et al. 2011; Valchev et al. 2012), sometimes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO), the dominant mode of climatic variability in temperate northern hemisphere
(Hurrell 1995). The NAO phases induce opposite storm climates in the Northern (and
Western) Europe to Southern (and Eastern) Europe. In the positive phase, when pressure
differences between the Azores high and the Icelandic low are greatest, storm tracks shift
over Northern Europe and anticyclones prevail over Central and Southern Europe, whilst in
the negative phase an opposite situation occurs and the storm tracks shift southward (cross-
Mediterranean) to Southeastern Europe (Hurrell 1995; Tsimplis and Shaw 2008). For both
western and eastern coasts of Europe, storminess presents good or medium correlations

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Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621 601

with NAO index (Lozano et al. 2004; Wang et al. 2011; Vespremeanu-Stroe and Tătui
2011). NAO influence on storminess fluctuations varies spatially and temporarily, and it is
not very helpful in accounting for storminess either in central Europe (Matulla et al. 2007)
or on southern Atlantic coasts of Europe (e.g. Portuguese coast), where correlations are
weak (Almeida et al. 2011). Other teleconnection patterns that influence the European
climate are the East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) and Scandi-
navian (SCAND) patterns, and the interplay between them and NAO is important in
addressing the regional climate variability (Moore et al. 2013).
Storm climate plays a crucial role in the morphodynamics of the Danube delta coast as it
drives the majority of the longshore sediment circulation along the coast. The net south-
ward longshore sediment transport (LST) reaches 1 9 106 m3/year on the N–S oriented
coasts. During storms, the overall southward directed longshore transport component is 4.3
times more vigorous than the northward directed component, whilst this asymmetry drops
down to 1.7 during fair weather conditions (Vespremeanu-Stroe 2004). The acute angle of
the prevailing northern waves approaching the coast controls the development of asym-
metric deltaic lobes such as the modern Sfântu Gheorghe and the older lobes of Sulina and
Dunavăţ (Vespremeanu-Stroe and Preoteasa 2015). Accordingly, the northern updrift part
of open-coast deltaic lobes develops a beach ridge plain structure, whilst the southern
downdrift part is made up of cyclic developed barrier spits and islands sequestered into a
muddy delta plain (Bhattacharya and Giosan 2003; Vespremeanu-Stroe et al. 2013; Pre-
oteasa et al. 2016).
The investigation of the Black Sea basin storminess has recently received some
attention, with most of the studies focusing on the western Black Sea coast (Vespremeanu-
Stroe et al. 2007; Trifonova et al. 2012; Valchev et al. 2012), some studies on the south-
eastern shelf (Akpınar and Kömürcü 2012) and others reviewing the basin scale energy
patterns (Arkhipkin et al. 2014; Rusu 2009). A recent paper of Valchev et al. (2012)
provides a comprehensive review of the regional literature and concludes, mainly based on
their own results, that ‘‘no significant upward or downward trends in storminess were
detected’’.
The present study deals with the storm climate on Danube delta coast (north-west Black
Sea shelf) and the influences of teleconnections with a focus on the storminess variability
dating back to 1949, making use of measured wind data and modelled wave data and by
introducing newly developed proxies: Storm Severity Index (SSI) and Storm Impact
Potential (SIP). Additionally, 12 years (1998–2009) of measured wave data are analysed
and compared in order to validate the wave modelling and to strengthen the paper main
conclusions, which point out significant differences in comparison with the previous
studies on the western Black Sea storminess. A thorough analysis of storms on the Danube
delta coast is lacking. The data shown here should aid coastal scientists, engineers and
managers by providing an overview of the climate variability in the region, identifying the
highest magnitude events and elaborating simple to use proxies for storm intensity and
impact.

2 Regional setting

The land-locked Black Sea basin is protected from ocean swell; the wave climate in this
case is a function of prevailing regional winds, their fetch and the water depth to produce
usually short and steep waves with periods of 5–7 s. The Danube delta beaches (Fig. 1)

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602 Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621

Fig. 1 Map of the Danube delta coast and the locations of wind and wave data

stretch 190 km along the north-western coast of the Black Sea basin. The deltaic coast
displays a diverse morphology, a combined result of rich fluvial sedimentary input (50 Mt/
year for 1840–2013 period, decreased down to 20.5 Mt/year in last decades: 1984–2013,
cf. Preoteasa et al. 2016), moderate wave energy (Significant wave height: Hs = 1.43 m)
and a vigorous sedimentary transport of 0.7–1 9 106 m3/year directed southward by the
longshore currents (Vespremeanu-Stroe 2004; Dan et al. 2009). The unique combination of

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Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621 603

these factors acting on a virtually tideless coast—0.12 m during spring tide (Bondar et al.
1973) morphologically impose a complex puzzle of beach ridge plains, rapidly growing
secondary deltas, dynamic barrier islands (such as Sacalin and Musura), extremely fast
eroding and accreting sectors, along with stable shorelines that display the most evolved
and intricate morphologies (Sfântu Gheorghe, Chituc). They consist of 10–50 m wide
subaerial sandy beaches, controlled by the seasonal differences in storm activity and sea
level fluctuations, via Danube flow (Vespremeanu-Stroe and Preoteasa 2007). Stable sec-
tors are backed by 2–3.5 m high and 50–100 m wide foredunes, whereas retreating sectors
consist of low-lying sandy barriers vulnerable to overwash processes. Beaches are nor-
mally fronted by multiple submerged nearshore sand bars (2–3), which display an offshore
migration trend, especially during winter, depending on the nearshore declivity and sedi-
ment budget (Tătui et al. 2014).

3 Data and methods

The current study is based on statistical analysis of wind and wave data. Wind records can
help identify events of highest wind speed and longest duration that may have impacted the
coast (MacClenahan et al. 2001), although wind speed measurements can severely hamper
investigations due to change of scale, operator or surroundings (Peterson and Hasse 1987).
Our wind dataset covers half a century (1962–2012) at Sulina meteorological station
(Fig. 1). It consists of hourly measurements in 1986–2002 and 2007–2012 intervals and of
three hourly measurements during 1962–1985 and 2003–2006. The directions are binned at
22.5° for 1962–2005 and at 10° since 2006. The meteorological station is ideally located on
the Sulina distributary jetties, at ca. 1 km away from the coastline, free of disturbance
inducing objects (buildings, tall vegetation); hence, it may be considered a reliable wind
data source. To further strengthen the trends analysis, we included 22 years (1991–2013)
of six hourly wind data recorded at Sfântu Gheorghe meteorological station. An additional
dataset consisting of temperature observations at Sulina station was used for identifying the
probability of ice structures (ice feet and ramparts) build up on the beach during severe
storms, by searching for periods longer than 1/2 of the duration of a storm in which
temperatures dropped below -1 °C. In the absence of long-term continuous wave data
records, wave modelling is a reliable tool for obtaining such time series. In this study, the
wave data series is based on a continuous hindcast spanning 65 years (1949–2013). The
global sea level pressure reanalysis carried out by the NCEP/NCAR (Kalnay et al. 1996)
was used in order to calculate the historical wind forcing for wave models. This was done
by means of an atmosphere–ocean interaction model described in Lavrenov (1998). Since
global fields have rather coarse resolution (2.5° spatial and 6 h temporal), they were
downscaled to the Black Sea domain. As a result, the obtained hourly gridded wind fields
have a resolution of 0.5°. Wave conditions were modelled using the third-generation
spectral wave model WAM cycle 4 (Günther et al. 1992). It was run on a regular spherical
grid, covering the entire Black Sea basin at 0.5° horizontal resolution. The deep-water
settings were applied with source and propagation time steps set to 10 and 20 min,
respectively (Valchev et al. 2012). The modelled hourly wave data (height and period)
were used for the analysis of the wave climate corresponding to an offshore reference point
(40 m depth, 18 km offshore, south of the Sf. Gheorghe distributary mouth; Fig. 1).
Furthermore, we employed a wave dataset measured at the Gloria marine platform span-
ning 12 years (1998–2009) for the purpose of validating (testing) the wave model data

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604 Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621

Fig. 2 Time series of modelled wave data. a Data showing the cyclic seasonal variation in wave height and
the 99th percentile corresponding to 4 m wave height (2000–2013), b validation of modelled wave height
against wave and wind speed measurements for one severe storm in the last decade (22–25 January 2004)

(Fig. 2). It comprises wave observations of significant wave height (Hs) and mean period
(Tm) of 6 h sampling frequency.
We used the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method applied to wind speed and wave
height data for the identification of storm events. Storm thresholds are usually very site
specific, and the one based on wind speed can range from 7.6 m/s up to 15.3 m/s for the
Atlantic coast (Lozano et al. 2004). Regional thresholds, valid for the western Black Sea
and Romanian coasts, have been set at wind speeds exceeding 10 m/s, 12 m/s and 15 m/s
for at least 12–24 h (Chiotoroiu 1999; Bocheva et al. 2007; Vespremeanu-Stroe et al. 2007;
Valchev et al. 2012). For the purpose of our investigation, we used a primary threshold
defined by a minimum wind speed of 10 m/s sustained for at least 24 h; the very rare cases
of strong wind for \24 h were also considered if they lasted for more than 12 h and
reached at least 15 m/s. The corresponding wave threshold (Hs) was found to be 1.6 m. In
addition, the analysis of the storm events revealed that the storm season does not coincide
with the calendar year and was defined to start on the 1st of August and end on the 31st of
July next year; therefore, when referring to a storm year (i.e. year 2000), the 12-month
period starting on the 1 August 2000 is considered. All the graphs in this paper show storm
years (seasons).
One important approach of the study is the use of storm proxies in order to analyse the
medium-term (multi-decadal) and short-term (intra-annual) variation in storminess. The
frequency, duration and category serve to define individual storm events as well as annual
characteristics. The resultant wind or wave direction (RWD) is used to express the average
direction of winds/waves in the course of a storm:
RWD ¼ arctanðCEW =CNS Þ ð1Þ

CNS ¼ cos / V ð2Þ

CEW ¼ sin / V ð3Þ

where CNS = north–south component, CEW = east–west component, V = wind speed (m/s)
or wave height (m), µ = wind direction (°).
In addition, new proxies for storm characterization were developed: SSI (Storm Severity
Index), SIP (Storm Impact Potential) and SI (Storminess Index). The SSI quantifies the

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Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621 605

total energetic strength of a storm. It is calculated for every value of wind speed cubed
times its duration using the following formula:
X 
SSI ¼ V 3  T =103 ð4Þ

where T = total duration of a given wind speed (h).

A similar energetic index (SSI) was proposed by Lamb and Frydendahl (1991); it differs
from the one applied here by using the maximum wind speed and the maximum surface
affected by destructive winds. Using Eq. (4) instead of the one proposed by Lamb and
Frydendahl (1991), we address the local storm energy rather than the synoptic scale
quantification (of storm energy). To quantify the seasonal SSI, we summed the SSI of
individual storms.
The morphologic index (SIP) corresponds to the potential coastal impact of a storm by
integrating the angle between the wind direction (µ) and the general shoreline orientation
(h).
X 
SIP ¼ V 3  T  sinð/ hÞ =103 ð5Þ

In this study, we applied the SIP for the N–S aligned coast, because this is the most
exposed to NE extreme storms, is the only inhabited stretch of coast, and is the place where
we performed topographic surveying and field observations. For this coast (orientation 0°),
µ - h is then the wind direction. The sine of this angle has maximum values (1–0.77), and
implicitly the maximum impact is expected for storms approaching from NE to SE (i.e. for
angles between 50° and 130°). Moderate or relatively low impacts correspond to longshore
or slightly oblique to the shore winds (N–NNE; S–SSE). For this proxy, offshore wind
directions are not taken into consideration. Note that a 0.1 value (instead of 0) is attributed
by default to longshore wind directions (0°/180°) as in practice, these storms impact the
coast to some degree, despite the intense wave attenuation due to refraction.
Lastly, the SI (Storminess Index) is a dimensionless and multiple source index to
account for storminess variations and trends. It results from averaging normalized wind
data (SSI values for Sulina and Sfântu Gheorghe coastal stations) with normalized wave
data (wave power derived from both NCEP modelled and measured waves):
SI ¼ ðS1 þ S2 þ    þ Sn Þ=n ð6Þ
where Sn = normalized storm proxy for the parameter ‘‘n’’, n = number of storm proxies
available for a specific year.
The wave energy flux (of a storm) was computed using the equations provided in
USACE (1984) and described by Moritz and Moritz (2006):
P ¼ Eo  Co =2 ð7Þ
where P = wave power (Nm/s per meter wave crest), Eo = offshore energy density
(kg/s2), and Co = offshore wave celerity (m/s).
 
Eo ¼ q  g  Hrms2 =8 ð8Þ
where q = density of seawater (kg/m3), g = acceleration of gravity (m/s2), Hrms = Root-
mean-square wave height (m).
Co ¼ ðg  T Þ=2p ð9Þ
where T = wave period (s).

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606 Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621

P=hr ¼ P  ð3600 sÞ=h ð10Þ

where total power = joules/hr per meter wave crest.
The teleconnection indices were obtained from the Climate prediction Centre of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.
gov/data/teledoc/telecontents.shtml) and were correlated with the SI using the Pearson
product-moment correlation coefficient and the Student’s t test for significance.

4 Results

4.1 Storm categories

A five-category storm scale is developed to better characterize the storm conditions based
on gradual increasing wind speed thresholds (Table 1). The storm population of ca. 1400
events was classified in either one of the five storm categories. The use of such approach
allows for low (I–II), severe (III–IV) and extreme (V) storms to be easily distinguished in
between. Considering only the onshore and longshore storms, accumulative foredune
processes and mildly erosive foreshore conditions are typical for the category I storms.
Category II storms are moderate-erosive, causing a more pronounced retreat of the beach
that is recovered soon (few weeks) after the event. The first two storm categories have an
overall frequency of 90% but do not pose any significant threat to the coastal systems in
terms of both morphological impact and vulnerability of coastal human settlements. Cat-
egory III and IV storms exhibit a moderate to high erosive behaviour marked sometimes by
a significant shoreline retreat on sectors of coast lacking foredune protection. If foredunes
are present, minor inundation may be produced in topographic lows, and the initiation of
scarps will lead to small sand volumes being lost (Fig. 3b). The extreme events, consisting
of onshore storms of category V, reach wind speeds and offshore waves (Hs) of minimum
28 m/s, respectively, 7 m high. They are capable of triggering significant overwash pro-
cesses, shoreline retreat (Fig. 3a) and strong undertow currents which result in major
sediment loss and, ultimately, in flooding of the coasts. Although variable, the return
period of onshore extreme storms is 7 years on average. This is longer than the recovery
time of the dune volume on the Sfântu Gheorghe stable beach sectors which ranges
between 1.5 and 4 years (Vespremeanu-Stroe and Preoteasa 2007; Tătui et al. 2014).

Table 1 Storm categories

Category I II III IV V

Wind speed and duration thresholds C10 m/s C15 m/s C20 m/s C24 m/s C28 m/s
C24 h C12 h C6h C6h C2 h
Total (50 years) 862 446 99 24 7
Occurrence (%) 59.9 31 6.9 1.7 0.5
Significant wave height (Hs) 1.6–2.5 m 2.5–4 m 4–5.5 m 5.5–7 m [7 m
Storms/season 17.24 8.92 1.98 0.48 0.14
Return period (years) 0.06 0.11 0.5 2.08 7.14

Category II–V storms also meet the thresholds of cat. I storms

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Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621 607

Fig. 3 Storm imprints on beach. a Severe shoreline retreat after the January 1998 storm (total duration of
157 h with a storm climax of 54 h: Hs 9–10 m and NE winds of 28 m/s), responsible for the emergence of
shore perpendicular inter-ridge deltaic muds. Photograph taken 12 km north of the Saint George mouth, b a
category III storm with moderate impact on a dissipative beach–October 2013 (total duration of 75 h with a
storm climax of 12 h: Hs = 4 m and NE winds with v = 20–21 m/s). Photograph was taken from the
incipient foredune crest (raised on the former dune toe), 1 km north of the Saint George distributary mouth

4.2 Storm directions

Storm roses based on wind and wave data show an obtuse bimodal pattern, with the main
peak associated with the prevailing northern storms (N–NE) and a second peak of the less
frequent southern storms (S–SSE)—Fig. 4. The first case accounts for ca. 80% of total
events and includes all the extreme storms. The north-eastern storms are the most
aggressive for the Danube delta coast. They are distinguished for their strong winds
([15 m/s) that are 2–5 times more frequent than other storm-relevant directions (N, NW or
S).
Up to 40 and 60% of the severe and extreme storms exhibit a counterclockwise rotation
in wind direction of 45°–90°. They initiate on more eastern directions (E–NE) and fade out
on more northern or even north-western directions, in accordance with the change of the
cyclone centre location. A similar proportion (40%) makes up the storms that are more
stable and do not display significant wind direction variability. This percentage grows to
75% for low-intensity storms (category I and II).

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608 Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621

Fig. 4 Storm wind (a) and wave (b) roses (above 10 m/s and 1.6 m, respectively)

Southern storms are not only less frequent, but also weaker, showing a gradual decrease
from a frequency of 25% for the category I storms down to 9% (category III) and to none
of the extreme events (V). The role of the southern storms is arguable, given the net
dominance of the northern winds. Clearly, on the dominant north–south-oriented coastline
these storms contribute with a minor but significant sediment reversal (ca. 25% of the total
LST; Vespremeanu-Stroe 2004), but dominance shifts as the shoreline alignment becomes
primarily east–west oriented (South Sacalin—Gura Portiţei sector). Here, the northerly
winds blow offshore and waves become fetch limited, whereas the southern storms control
the return period of high waves and storm surge and locally impose the resultant LST
direction.

4.3 Intra-annual storm climate

A storm season includes two intervals of equal length but with marked difference in storm
activity. During October–March, 70% of total storms and 84% of the severe and extreme
storms (categories III–V) occur; therefore, this period is considered the active storm
season. On average, the active season contains 40 stormy days, of which 6–7 are of higher
storm magnitude (III–V). Except for October, which is 30% less energetic than the season
average, the monthly differences of storm energy are relatively minor. Chances are that an
extreme storm can hit in any of the remaining months, with a higher probability in
December and January (1.35 extreme storm days; Fig. 5). Furthermore, differences can
also consist of minor variances in wind direction. Accordingly, storms occurring in
October and March exhibit a RWD from NNE (20°–23°), whereas the ones in November–
February favour a monthly RWD from the N–NNE sector (10°–13°). This probably implies
that in early spring and fall, the Mediterranean cyclones trajectories are located further
south than during winter.
An important correlative factor for the storm impact magnitude is the high probability
of sea freezing and ice foot formation for short periods (days to weeks) during winter
months that can shield the subaerial coastal units (berms, dunes, barrier spits and islands).
Except for the rare deep-freeze cases associated with long-lasting cold air masses intrusion,
when the sea surface freezes for most of the shoreface (January–February 1958, February

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Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621 609

Fig. 5 Monthly distribution of the averaged storm days (1961–2013) during a storm season (August–July):
(1) Category I–II (low-intensity storms), (2) category III–V (severe and extreme storms). (3) Storm wind
direction and (4) sea freeze days during severe and extreme storms

2003, February 2012), the surf zone remains partly unprotected from the destructive effects
of high magnitude storms. To put this fact into perspective, the months of January and
February are most likely to develop ice structures (ice feet and ramparts), with a chance of
35–40% for storms to encounter ice-sealed (protected) beaches, followed by the month of
December which exhibits a theoretical 20% chances, considerably reduced in practice due
to higher water temperature during early winter (Fig. 5).
Considering the calm summer season (April–September), a significantly lower number
of days with low-intensity storms (16) occur and only 1 day with strong winds (v C 20 m/
s). Moreover, June, July and August mark a clear low in storminess, with almost no strong
winds, highly variable and somewhat westerly shifted airflow circulation pattern (in par-
ticular during June and July).
Similar seasonal variations are revealed when evaluating average significant wave
heights throughout the season (Fig. 6a). In front of the Danube delta coast, average Hs is
about 1.1 m with a maximum of 1.6 m in the winter and a minimum of 0.65 in the summer.
Moreover, the wave power distribution is even more acute (Fig. 6b), as higher waves
contribute with exponentially higher wave energy. Although waves above 4 m occur for
just 6% of the total storm duration and 1.05% of a year, these waves account for ca. 40% of
the annual wave power.

4.4 Storminess evolution (the multi-decadal variability)

Storm climate experiences extensive year-to-year variability. On a longer timescale, it

reveals a repeating of 7–9 years intervals of distinct activity, best expressed by the multi-
decadal evolution of SI (Storminess Index) that shows a succession of stormy (?), mod-
erately stormy (=) and lower storminess or quiescent (-) periods (Fig. 7).
Time spans of increased storminess are observed during 1967–1973 and 1991–1998, the
former exhibiting the greatest storminess, with the highest values for all proxies (Fig. 8). A
great number of severe and extreme storms occurred during the first period, with
notable events in 1969 and 1971, during which wind speeds reached 28 m/s and offshore
waves attained 10 m. This is also confirmed by the wave power and duration of waves
higher than 4 m (which correspond to the 99th percentile). During the latest stormy interval
(1991–1998), a unique cluster of two extreme storms occurred in the same winter (De-
cember 1997 and January 1998). Both storms displayed very high waves (*10 m), total
durations of 4 and 7 days, respectively, and exceptionally high SIP values called forth by

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610 Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621

Fig. 6 Average monthly distribution of wave height (a) and wave power (b)

strong onshore NE winds (25–30 m/s from the NE during the storm peak). These condi-
tions define the only encountered cluster with two category V onshore storms following
one another in the frame of one month during the analysed time interval. The two storms
are both part of the top 10 most aggressive coastal storms instrumentally recorded in the
last 50 years (Fig. 9). In addition, a particularly violent and unusual episode was the
December 1991 storm with wind speed reaching 40 m/s for 2 h at Sulina meteorological
station. It is quoted in the local literature (e.g. Chiotoroiu et al. 2013) as the highest
magnitude event in recent decades despite the fact that its impact on the coastal landscape
was minor (due to the longshore wind direction, RWD of 359°). This is probably an
overstatement due to human or instrumental error in the wind speed record at Sulina station
(40 m/s instead of 30 m/s), also confirmed by the maximum wave heights of 9.5 m and
maximum wind speeds of 26 m/s at Sfântu Gheorghe station.

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Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621 611

Fig. 7 Normalized time series of SI (Storminess Index) for Danube delta coast based on SSI (Sulina and
Sfantu Gheorghe) and NCEP wave power

Fig. 8 Matrix of storminess proxies; numbers are expressed as averages per period

Fig. 9 Top 10 SIP (Storm Impact Potential) storms

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612 Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621

1958–1966, 1974–1981 and 1999–2005 periods are classified as moderately stormy.

During these intervals, wave and wind proxies display near average values. Nevertheless,
extreme storms did occur. This is the case of one of the most aggressive extreme storms in
the study period, which occurred in February 1979. It is ranked second (Fig. 9), with a total
duration of 8 days and waves reaching maximum offshore Hs of 10 m that severely
impacted the Sfântu Gheorghe coastal settlement (where a great number of houses col-
lapsed) causing extensive flooding of the coastal plain behind foredunes, by overbanking of
Danube waters due to the storm surge. The same storm of February 1979 was the most
devastating and cited coastal storm in the Bulgarian grey literature. Winds were extremely
persistent shifting their direction from E to NE, whilst the wind speed reached 34 m/s
accompanied by extremely low atmospheric pressure. This resulted in waves exceeding
9 m height in deep water and in the highest storm surge of *1.5 m recorded only by open-
coast tide gauges since the two located in Varna and Burgas Bays were inundated. Besides
the prolonged flooding and considerable erosion, coastal settlements and infrastructure
were hard hit and a big number of coastal protection structures were damaged beyond
repair (Andreeva et al. 2011).
The relatively quiescent intervals appear to follow after moderate ones. The 1958–1966,
1982–1990 and 2006–2013 periods display the lowest values for all storminess proxies
(Fig. 8). This is pointed out by both wave and wind data which show lowest values in all
proxies. Additionally, the wind data indicate a more pronounced decrease for all stormi-
ness proxies for 2006–2013 interval. Although this can be partially attributed to station
data inhomogeneity, the last decade was marked by an interval of storminess drop observed
in all storm proxies and datasets, with less powerful and less frequent storms. For the entire
study period, it appears that the low storm activity follows after 7–9 years of high and
moderate storm energy. This cyclic trend was first observed for the (Bulgarian) western
coast of the Black Sea (Valchev et al. 2012), thus demonstrating a large-scale (*700 km)
rough common pattern of the storminess variability for the western and north-western
Black Sea basin.
The largest clustering of severe storms is observed in the 1967–1973 high storminess
interval. In fact, for the study period, there were also three cases of severe southern storms
but their short duration (2–4 times shorter than the extreme northern storms) does not allow
sufficiently high SSI values to qualify in the 1-year return period storms. Although severe
and extreme storms do occur in both moderate and low storminess periods, only a single
case of 1-year return period storm is recorded in the last period (2006–2013). It is the
February 2012 storm, which was particularly violent, with wind speeds and wave heights
(Hs) reaching 23 m/s and 8 m, respectively. Although it had a pronounced onshore
direction, no subaerial sediment loss was recorded owing to thick ice foot formations that
protected the beach.
Furthermore, the resultant wind direction (RWD) and magnitude vectors of SSI for the
50 highest ranked storms (corresponding to 1-year return period storms; Fig. 10) reveal the
prevalence of the north-eastern and northern winds for the most severe and extreme storm
occurrence.
The multi-decadal analysis of storm wave directions (Fig. 11) shows that in addition to
the dominant north-easterly wave climate, there are also particular seasons (1964, 1965,
1982, 1999, 2006 and 2008) in which southern waves were significant. It appears that the
wave directions shift towards more eastern and southern directions corresponding to years
(or periods) of low storminess. The greatest change is observed in the last cycle of
storminess (since 2006) during which several seasons display more atypical directions.
Furthermore, the recent decrease in storminess appears to affect only the northern storms,

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Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621 613

Fig. 10 Top 50 (1-year return period) storm vectors. North direction is up. Vector directions correspond to
the RWD, and magnitude is given by the SSI

Fig. 11 Time series of resultant storm wave directions; dotted rectangles depict low storminess intervals

Fig. 12 Time series of north versus south storm power. In fig: WNW–ENE, ESE–WSW Vertical axis wave
power

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614 Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621

thus allowing the contribution of the southern storms to the total storminess to grow
(Fig. 12). The 2006 season is the first in the data series that displayed a storm-cumulated
higher wave power from the southern approaching waves, followed by 2008 season. Storm
direction shifts during low storm activity years are also valid for waves higher than 4 m.
For instance, during the 2006 season, only one storm managed to pass the 4 m wave
threshold, and it had a southern direction.

4.5 The influence of large-scale teleconnection patterns on Danube delta

storminess

Understanding the influences of large-scale teleconnection patterns on the frequency and

intensity of storms, as for other climatic variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation), is
essential for interpreting the changes in climate. In this section, the evolution of the
Storminess Index (SI) is related to the major modes of atmospheric variability that can
influence storminess in the region (Fig. 13). We considered SI since 1962, because only
after this date it includes both wind (instrumental) and waves (hindcast) data.
Previous studies on the Danube delta coast found storminess to be negatively correlated
(r = -0.76) with the NAO index (Vespremeanu-Stroe et al. 2007; Vespremeanu-Stroe and
Tătui 2011). Negative and close to zero values of NAOI are associated with increased
storminess, whereas positive values match with periods of low or moderate storminess.
Although it proved to be valid for most of the study period of the mentioned papers
(1962–2004), afterwards a sudden change occurred (since 2003), when low NAOI values
began to correspond to a low in storminess.
It is established that the NAO does not account for all the storminess in the North
Atlantic (Seierstad et al. 2007; Mailier et al. 2006) and consequently it could not account
for all the storminess on the north-western Black Sea basin.
The East Atlantic (EA) is the second prominent mode of low frequency variability over
the North Atlantic that influences the position of the primary North Atlantic storm tracks
and jet streams (Seierstad et al. 2007; Woollings and Blackburn 2012). Reported to the
1962–2013 period, the storminess (SI) exhibits a good correlation with the EA of -0.55
(significant at the 0.01 level) that appears to account also for the last decade reduction in
storminess (Fig. 14). Moreover, the EA pattern seems to have a general positive trend that
mirrors closely the negative trend in storminess on the Danube delta coast.
The East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern (EAWR) is closely linked with the EA and
has previously been found to have a strong influence on the climatic conditions, especially
over the Central and Southern Europe (Ioniţă 2014). The pattern shows a similar corre-
lation as the EA, but this time positive (r = 0.56, significant at the 0.01 level) that appears
to be in good agreement with the increased period of storminess in the late 1960s, 1970s
and 1990s and also for the recent decrease (Fig. 14).
Over the European continent, the EAWR and the Scandinavian pattern (SCAND) are
significant regional factors (Seierstad et al. 2007). The SCAND correlates also well with
the SI as it seems to account for the storminess in the first decades (r = 0.55 for
1962–2005, 0.01 significance level), but it fails in predicting the recent decrease in
storminess when low values of SI are associated with neutral values of SCAND (Fig. 14).
Although the SCAND presents similar correlations as the EA and the EAWR, it does not
have a clear influence on the recent storminess change (when it appears to be less active).
These results prove that the North Atlantic Oscillation is not the only teleconnection
pattern influencing the storminess on the Danube delta coast. The geographical location of
the north-western Black Sea coast is significantly affected by other modes of climate

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Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621 615

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 616 Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621

b Fig. 13 Normalized time series of SI and teleconnection patterns (NAO, EA, EAWR, SCAND). Three-year
averages

Fig. 14 Plots of teleconnection patterns (NAO, EA, EAWR, SCAND). Circles are coloured by SI. Blue low
storminess. Red high storminess

variability, most notable the EA and the EAWR, which explain most of the storminess
variation and specifically address the recent decrease in storminess.

5 Discussion and conclusions

This study aimed to evaluate the storm conditions since the mid-twentieth century in the
region of the Danube delta coast and to link the storminess decadal variations with the
large modes of climate variability over Europe. The SSI (Storm Severity Index), SIP
(Storm Impact Potential) and SI (Storminess Index) are found to be reliable for quantifying
storminess.
Extreme storms (Category V), which have the potential of endangering the coastal
settlements and the back-beach ecosystems, display a return period of 7 years. High
storminess is encountered during 1967–1973 and 1991–1998 intervals, although extreme
storms have a variable frequency and may happen at any time independent of time

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Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621 617

intervals. The greatest cluster of extreme storms occurred in December 1997–January

1998, when two category V storms (both in the Top 10 of the most aggressive coastal
storms on 50 years), with winds reaching 28 m/s and Hs of 10 m, hit the coast during same
winter. The second ranked extreme storm is the February 1979 event, with similar wind
speeds and Hs (28 m/s, 10 m), which caused extensive flooding of the Sfântu Gheorghe
village and damage along the Bulgarian coastline.
The multi-decadal storminess evolution appears to follow a cyclic pattern with suc-
cessive periods of 7–9 years of high, moderate and low storminess. A similar pattern of
storminess cyclicity was found by Valchev et al. (2012) for the Bulgarian coast. This cyclic
trend demonstrates a large-scale (*700 km) rough common pattern of the storminess
variability for the western and north-western Black Sea basin. Valchev et al. (2012)
described an alteration in time of the storm pattern, manifested as shortening of the storm
duration especially due to the tendency of the storm decay phase to shorten, in accordance
with the shift of the prevailing direction of storm forcing winds to the north. To test this
hypothesis, we standardized the storms duration to inter-compare their development phases
(Fig. 15). However, our analyses demonstrate that at least for the Danube delta coast,
average storm phases of growth/developed/decay remained practically unchanged for all
the study period.
Noteworthy is the recent change in storminess started in 2006, during which all wave
and wind proxies display the lowest values and point to an overall decreasing trend in
storminess. The latest change in storm climate is associated with a reduction in the
northern storm frequency which brought about a more important contribution to the
southern storms and an overall drop in storminess. During this late interval (2003–2014), a
weakening or slight positive correlation with NAO is observed, which points to a major
shift in the NAO—storminess negative correlation that characterized the rest of the study
period.
Besides the role of NAO in climate variability over the Danube delta coast, the storm
climate appears to be also linked to other teleconnection patterns as significant correlations

Fig. 15 Average storm profiles of selected seasons. Storm durations were standardized to 100

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618 Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621

were found for the EA, EAWR and SCAND (r = -0.55, 0.56, 0.55, respectively, sig-
nificant at p \ 0.01) for all the study period. This proves that the north-western Black Sea
basin storminess is considerably influenced not just by NAO but also by other modes of
climate variability, most notable the EA and the EAWR which also succeed to address the
recent decrease in storminess (whilst SCAND failed).
Polar jets are interrelated with the dynamics of storm tracks. Atlantic jet stream changes
are described using the NAO, but it was shown that in general, more than one spatial
pattern is required (Fyfe and Lorenz 2005; Seierstad et al. 2007). For the North Atlantic,
much of the variation can be described using a combination of the North Atlantic Oscil-
lation and the East Atlantic pattern (Woollings and Blackburn 2012). Moore et al. (2013)
approached the importance of the East Atlantic (EA) and Scandinavian (SCAND) patterns
and found they regulate the winter sea level pressure field in the North Atlantic. The
authors argue that the meridional dipole over the North Atlantic is not purely the result of
the NAO but it is also orchestrated by other two modes of variability (the EA and the
SCAND), which resulted in a multi-decadal mobility in the two centres of action. The
unstationarities in the climate system can lead to high correlation and anti-correlation for
different periods (Ioniţă 2014; Rı̂mbu et al. 2003; Deser 2000). The variability in the
structure of meridional dipole not captured by NAO alone may explain climate variability
when weakly or not related to NAO (Moore et al. 2011, 2013; Dawson et al. 2007; Holmes
et al. 2010).
A few recent studies point to regional correlations between temperatures and telecon-
nection patterns other than NAO which were already confirmed (Bojariu and Paliu 2001).
Accordingly, Rı̂mbu et al. (2012) found a correlation between the temperatures in Scăr-
işoara cave (NW Romania) and the EAWR, whereas Bı̂rsan et al. (2014) found a strong
influence of the EA on thermal extremes in the Carpathians.
On the Danube delta coast, the NAO interacts with other teleconnection patterns (EA,
EAWR and SCAND) and cannot account by itself for all the variation in storminess,
especially in the last 10 years. The EA and EAWR explain well the recent decreasing
storm frequency and intensity, and their long-term increasing/decreasing trends may hint to
a future of lower storminess.
Although storminess has decreased on the short to medium term, there is no clear trend
in extreme storms as their recurrence is highly variable and thus cannot conclude on a
decreasing deltaic coastal vulnerability in this context, despite an increase in beach and
dune stability and a more efficient protection of the coast. A comprehensive delta vul-
nerability assessment requires a multi-component and multi-process approach (Wolters and
Kuenzer 2015). On the Danube delta coast, decadal storminess controls the intensity of
processes, such that increased storminess favours both higher erosion and accumulation,
whereas the opposite is valid for decreased storminess (Vespremeanu-Stroe et al. 2007).
Even in the case of the December 1997–January 1998 extreme storm cluster, which had
significant alongshore variable impact on the Danube delta coast (frontal dune erosion and
profile lowering along stable sectors, and severe shoreline retreat, overwash, overtopping,
dune destruction and profile flattening along low-lying vulnerable sectors), the beach dune
system recovered relatively quickly from 1.5 to 4 years along stable sectors (Tătui et al.
2014), whereas it caused coastal retreat equivalent to 4 typical years on historically
retreating sectors. Recent analysis of shoreline and bathymetrical changes in the last
150 years (Vespremeanu-Stroe et al. 2017; Tătui and Vespremeanu-Stroe 2017), corrob-
orated with present results suggests that the main contributor to vulnerability increase on
the long term is the threefold reduction in sediment supply to the coasts in the last century,
which switched significant stretches of coast from accumulating to erosive.

123
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Nat Hazards (2017) 87:599–621 619

The capacity of extreme storms to induce acute morphological change and to endanger
coastal communities is of major interest. In the future, a better understanding of storminess
evolution in connection with large-scale atmospheric patterns and prediction is necessary,
especially in the context of climatic change and rising sea level which make the low-lying
coasts such as the Danube delta to become increasingly vulnerable to marine hazards.

Acknowledgements This study was funded by the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research,
CNCS–UEFISCDI and EU under PN-II-RU-TE-2011-3-0293, PN-II-CT-RO-FR-2014-2-0062 and Era.Net
Rus-Plus BS STEMA 42/2016 Grants. FT was supported by the strategic Grant POSDRU/159/1.5/S/133391.
We thank the two reviewers for their close reading of the manuscript and their constructive comments.

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