Influence of mature ENSO phase on seasonal precipitation and

streamflow in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Jia Weia,b, Weiguang Wanga,b*, Quanxi Shaoc, Yanshu Rongb , Wanqiu Xinga,b, Catherine Liud

a. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai

University, Nanjing 210098, China

b. College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

c. CSIRO Data 61, Private Bag 5, Wembley, Western Australia 6913, Australia

d. Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom,

Kowloon, Hong Kong, China

*Corresponding author:

Dr. Weiguang Wang

State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai

University, Nanjing 210098, China

Tel +86-25-83786786

This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been
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differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi:
10.1002/joc.6433

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Fax: +86-25-83786786

Email: wangweiguang006@126.com

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Abstract

As one of the most influential oceanic and atmospheric oscillations in the Earth system, El

Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has modulated numerous geophysical processes. This is

particularly true for the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), which is vulnerable to Asian Monsoon

and faces serious hydrological hazards. In this study, the co-variability between lag-lead

precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies was evaluated utilizing singular

value decomposition method. Moreover, certain teleconnections between ENSO and

streamflow were identified by wavelet methods. In addition, the contribution of related

atmospheric variables was revealed by composite analysis. Results indicate that there are strong

associations in lag-lead seasons between the wet condition (dry condition) and September-

November (December–February) mature ENSO phase. Significant common power and

coherence signals between the ENSO indices and the streamflow occur in the 4-8, 8-16 and 16-

32 seasonal scales. Meanwhile, the activity cycle of the ENSO indices ahead of streamflow

increases from the mid-lower reaches to the source region. In addition, the Western Pacific

Subtropical High is strengthened during the mature ENSO phase. Anomalous sinking motions

and divergent water vapor flux occupy the YRB, reducing the precipitation and leading to the

dry condition in the source region until the following March-May. On the other hand, ascending

movements and abundant water vapor flux coming from northern Pacific, equatorial western

Pacific and the Bay of Bengal result in the wet condition in the mid-lower reaches.

Key words: SST; ENSO; precipitation; streamflow; Yangtze River Basin

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1. Introduction

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurred in the tropical Pacific is known as the most

powerful interannual signal of climate variability in the earth, with a repeat cycle varying from

two to seven years (Jin, 1997; Mccreary, 2009). Despite originating from Equatorial Pacific

(EP), the influences of ENSO on sea level change, polar motion predictions and numerous

environmental processes have been confirmed in remote regions located far from the tropical

Pacific (Kosek et al., 2001; Lombard et al., 2005; Niedzielski and Kosek, 2010). During the El

Niño events (warm ENSO phases), the earth rotation rate and the number of tropical cyclones

in the Atlantic Ocean decrease, and result in droughts, fires, and intensified dust spread in

Indonesia and Australia. These phenomena are opposite during La Niña episodes (cold ENSO

phases) under most circumstances (Dickey et al., 1994; Niedzielski, 2014). As the dissimilarity

of strength and irregularity of phase change in each individual cycle (Kleeman, 2008; Živković

and Rypdal, 2013), such ENSO-driven environmental impacts are extremely complicated and

cannot be predicted accurately, and thus cause wide and increasing public concerns in recent

decades.

Among the suffering to ENSO, the most sensitive ones are generally considered to be

climatological and hydrological processes. Previous researchers have identified core regions

where precipitation is significantly affected by ENSO (e.g., Ropelewski and Halpert, 1987).

The consistent ENSO related precipitation signals with dry episodes exist in Australia,

Indonesia, southern Africa, Caribbean and Indian subcontinent in DJF(+1), while the wet

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episodes exhibit in western North America and southwestern South America in DJF(+1) and

MAM(+1) (Kiladis and Diaz, 1989). Recent studies have revealed linkages between ENSO and

precipitation in term of the decadal variability and extreme events. For example, Wang and

Kumar (2015) found that ENSO events changed the precipitation characteristics toward lower

frequencies in the southwestern United States. Sun et al. (2015) explored the impacts of ENSO

on extreme precipitation across the world and concluded that December–February (DJF) is

generally the season with greatest changes between a strong ENSO event and a neutral phase.

Lee et al. (2019) investigated precipitation variation of Korean affected by ENSO, showing a

strong teleconnection in different month. As a strong ocean-atmosphere coupling, a powerful

climatic and oceanic oscillation, ENSO behavior can impact hydrological regimes since the

atmospheric variables are the crucial elements that form streamflow (Niedzielski, 2014). The

anomalous hydrological behaviors are associated with persistent climate anomalies (She et al.,

2015; Wang et al., 2016; Xing et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2016; Liu et al., 2017). Meanwhile,

streamflow variations are often linked with anomalous atmospheric conditions on seasonal time

scales (Ionita et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2013a). Thus, investigating physical and statistical

associations between ENSO and hydrological processes including hydrological drought

(Hosseinzadeh et al., 2014), flood pulse (Räsänen and Kummu, 2013), streamflow trends

(Johnson et al., 2013; Panda et al., 2013), and groundwater (Huo et al., 2016) have recently

become the focus in this field. However, conclusions from different researches for this theme

are inconsistent, because the hydrological features are not only controlled by meteorological

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conditions but also affected by other factors such as soil type, topography, land use, land cover,

etc (Niedzielski, 2014). For example, in Central Europe, the links between ENSO and

streamflow are more ambiguous. The correlations between ENSO and streamflow are opposite

in Germany and Switzerland (Ward et al., 2010), while a heterogeneous image of positive and

negative correlations between ENSO and streamflow is exhibited in Poland (Steirou et al.,

2017). Therefore, ENSO events may lead to completely opposite consequence even in the

regions closing to each other. Since the precipitation is considered as only one of the main

driving factor of streamflow variation, the association between ENSO-like SST patterns and

precipitation provided the evidence of teleconnection between ENSO and streamflow, but the

analysis between ENSO and streamflow can also be informative.

The hydrometeorological features have still been modulated by ENSO dramatically in the

regions away from the Equatorial Pacific (EP), which is especially true in the Yangtze River

Basin (YRB). Located in the subtropical monsoon zone, the YRB, with great significance to

the hydropower resources, agricultural production, ecological resources and economic

development, is one of the largest waterlogged regions in China (Varis and Vakkilainen, 2001;

Wang et al., 2017). The 1997-1998 warm event documented as the ‘El Niño of the century’ had

triggered the devastating floods during the following summer in the YRB (Lau, 1999; Chen et

al., 2005; Jiang et al., 2008). Since the well-known response of hydrological features is

strongest in the June-August (JJA), most studies examining ENSO impacts are confined to the

rainy season. For example, the impact of ENSO on rainy season precipitation over the YRB

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resulted in 25% greater (5–20% lower) than normal during the warming (cooling) episodes

(Cao et al., 2017). The teleconnection between ENSO and East Asian climate was diagnosed

by investigating the precipitation anomalies (Zhang et al., 1999; Wang et al., 2000; Wu et al.,

2003). Jiang et al. (2006) and Zhang et al. (2007) examined the extreme situation and

demonstrated that ENSO episodes have good teleconnections with extreme hydrological events

in the YRB. Recent studies showed that annual-scale precipitation and water discharge

variability did not have consistent relationships with ENSO phases under the circumstances of

the decadal change of ENSO (Zhang et al., 2014; Ouyang et al., 2014). In fact, precipitation

and streamflow have distinct seasonal variability both in magnitude and tendency in the YRB

(Wang et al., 2013b; Cui et al., 2017; Sun et al., 2017). The possible connections within

individual season between the hydrometeorological features and ENSO may be distinguished

from those at interannual scales. In addition, since ENSO-related circulation anomalies have

great significance in different seasons, the relationships in one season should not be

extrapolated to other seasons. For example, the impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation

(NAO)/ Atlantic Oscillation (AO) on streamflow at the annual scale are predominant by the

robust winter signal, and the influencing circulation patterns can vary in different seasons,

indicating that extrapolating winter as well as annual signal to other seasons should be

interpreted with caution (Kingston et al., 2006). Recently, Stephan et al. (2018) explored

seasonal precipitation variation modulated by circulation anomalies based on the period

classification of extended summer (May–October) and winter (May–October). Therefore, the

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variability of such relationship on different seasons is still necessary to investigate further.

Given the fact that mature phase of ENSO events tend to occur in boreal winter, most

studies examining the influence of ENSO solely used winter sea surface temperature (SST)

anomalies or ENSO indices. For example, the linkage between winter ENSO index and

precipitation was investigated by January to March SST anomaly averages (Ouyang et al.,

2014). Furthermore, some studies used spring or four seasons’ SST anomalies to represent

ENSO SST distribution. For example, the association of precipitation with hydrologic variable

changes were detected by March-May (MAM) or April-June (AMJ) ENSO indices (Karabörk

and Kahya, 2009; Tian et al., 2017). However, ENSO event normally peaks in late autumn and

winter, and the spring is the transition season with smallest SST anomalies. Thus, MAM SST

or ENSO indices are not enough to represent ENSO SST patterns. Moreover, the persistence

barrier referring to the weak persistence of ENSO behaviors in MAM makes small random

errors grow unlimitedly and eventually results in a rapid drop of predictive skill for ENSO (Yu

and Kao, 2007). Therefore, the forecasts launched through the spring are less successful and

the statistical predictive models for summer precipitation and streamflow using preceding

MAM ENSO indices are not very solid (Xu et al., 2007). In addition, recent studies concentrate

on the advancement in two types of ENSO conditions, called Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and

Central Pacific (CP) El Niño (Kao and Yu, 2009; Song et al., 2017). For example, Wang and

Asefa (2018) examined the influence of EP El Niño and CP El Niño on seasonal hydrological

features in the Southeastern United States. Cao et al. (2019) explored the impacts of ENSO on

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the onset and withdrawal of rainy season precipitation. However, each ENSO event has its own

cycle characteristics including the strength, timing and duration, which are closely related to

coherent climate anomalies. For instance, quite a few El Niño or La Niña events ended within

12 months, while strongest ENSO events usually lasted more than one year, such as the 1991-

1993 El Niño event and 1973-1976 La Niña event, having two mature phases through the

duration. Moreover, many ENSO events with onset phase in the early year had reached the peak

value in September-November (SON) including the warm events of 1994-1995 and 2015-2016,

and the cold events of 1988-1989 and 2010-2011. Therefore, both SON and DJF SST anomalies

should be fully considered, and it is more important to understand the evolution of atmospheric

circulation anomalies.

On the other hand, ENSO has been identified by various indices, such as Southern

Oscillation index (SOI), Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

index, trans-Niño index (TNI), El Niño Modoki (EMI), EP and CP subsurface indices, etc

(Trenberth, 1997; Ashok et al., 2007; Yu et al., 2011). The response and sensitivity of the

aforementioned indices are different in defining the intensity, duration and timing of an ENSO

cycle. For example, the Niño4 index has a weaker response to a warm event, while the JMA

index was more sensitive to a cold event (Hanley et al., 2003). Recent studies usually employed

Niño3 index (Zhang et al., 2007), Niño3.4 index (Xiao et al., 2015), or average SST (Xu et al.,

2007; Kwon et al., 2009) to examine ENSO teleconnections with streamflow in the YRB.

However, the widely used indices monitor single variable, and most SST indices probably fail

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to catch the impacts of ENSO on the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) system, especially for

Niño3.4 index (Zhang et al., 2016). By contrast, as a comprehensive index combined with full

multivariate signals (sea level pressure, zonal and meridional wind, sea surface temperature,

surface air temperature, and total cloudiness fraction of the sky) of ENSO (Wolter and Timlin,

1993), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is a measure referencing oceanic and atmospheric

coupling features in the EP (Wolter and Timlin, 1998). Thus, the MEI is favoured over indices

with single observed variable and seems more appropriate to detect the possible association

between ENSO and streamflow in the Asian Monsoon region. More studies utilizing the MEI

remain to be done to clarify the impacts of the temporal and spatial diversities of ENSO on the

hydrological regimes in Asia Monsoon region.

More detailed investigation is required to address these limitations mentioned above. In

this paper, we concentrate on the responses of precipitation and streamflow in the YRB to the

different mature phases of ENSO. The evolution of precipitation variability associated with

SON and DJF Pacific SSTs is evaluated. Meanwhile, the time-frequency space patterns between

ENSO and the streamflow are detected. Correlations between the streamflow and mature ENSO

phase indices are analyzed both for the simultaneous and lagged time. Furthermore, specific

investigations involved with the physical mechanism of ENSO affecting hydrological regimes

are presented, which can reveal the contribution patterns of atmospheric circulation to the

precipitation and streamflow variations.

2. Study area and Data processing

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The Yangtze River, located in 90°33′E~122°25′E, 24°30′N~35°45′N, is one of the most

important basins in China. Climatically, the source regions are alpine-cold zones with

precipitation from 300 to 400 mm, most of the upper reaches are semi-humid zones with

precipitation from 400 to 800 mm, and the mid-lower reaches are humid zones with

precipitation from 800 to 1600 mm (Zhao et al., 2012; Sun et al., 2013; Qian et al., 2014). With

a heterogeneous distribution of geological and climatic features, the basin’s average annual

temperature ranges from -4℃ to 18℃. In addition, the YRB has abundant freshwater resources

that run through many parts of China. Therefore, identifying the response of precipitation and

streamflow to the large-scale climate change has great significance to hydropower development,

water use, planting, animal husbandry, flood control and drainage (Tian et al., 2016).

Based on the special climatic characteristics, we select Zhimenda, Yichang and Datong

hydrological stations to represent the hydrological features of the source region, upper reaches

and mid-lower reaches respectively. The location and distribution of hydrological stations and

meteorological stations are shown in Figure 1. Zhimenda hydrological station, located in

Qinghai Province (33.3°N, 97.2°E), is the control station of source region, and has a drainage

area of 137,700 km2 (Bing et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2012). Built in year 1957, Zhimenda

hydrological station has a direct measuring section without floodplain distributary. The main

measuring facilities are hydroelectric cables. The stage-discharge relations are stable, and the

streamflow is recorded using single curve method. During the glacial stage, the ice condition

has little effect on the trend of stage-discharge relations. Yichang hydrological station, located

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in Hubei Province (30.7°N, 111.3°E), has a drainage area of 1,005,500 km2. Built in year 1877,

the hydrological tests of Yichang station including water stage, discharge, sediment

concentration and water quality are monitored by various modern methods, such as moving

ship GPS positioning, acoustic doppler current profilers, and microcomputer measurement.

Datong hydrological station, the last control station in the lower reaches of the YRB, located in

Anhui Province (30.8°N, 117.6°E), has a drainage area of 1,705,400 km2. Built in year 1922,

Datong station is one of the most important stations for water regime detection and measures

hydrological features by a series of modern measuring and reporting equipment (Chen, 2003).

In year 2006, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) was completed and began to operate, with a great

significance to the peak discharge. In general, the discharges of Yichang station and lower

reaches are the same with the natural flow. During the flood season (June-September), the TGD

will reduce the discharge when the flood happens. After the completion of TGD, the monthly

mean streamflow of Yichang and Datong station has fluctuations, while the annual total amount

of discharge entering the sea remains the same with natural flow.

Monthly mean streamflow of three main hydrological stations from 1961-2013 were

documented in hydrological yearbook published by Ministry of Water Conservancy of China,

and the data were controlled based on the national standard quality management system. The

monthly precipitation of 135 meteorological stations from 1961-2015 were obtained from the

China Meteorological Administration, which were the total of daily precipitation. The Pacific

SST was the NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST) version 3b (Smith et al., 2008) with

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a 2o × 2o resolution, and the monthly MEI, SOI and ONI were available from

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/data.html. The monthly geopotential height, vertical

velocity, specific humidity and winds were obtained from the reanalysis product of National

Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (Kalnay et

al., 1996) with a 2.5o ×2.5o resolution. The seasonal mean values used in this study were

calculated by averaging three month values, where the seasons were defined by March-May

(MAM) as spring, June–August (JJA) as summer, September–November (SON) as autumn and

December–February (DJF) as winter.

3. Methodology

3.1 Classifying ENSO events

Despite its adverse impacts, the definitions of ENSO event are different by different

organizations or for different research purposes, but the measurement statistics of the event are

quite similar. For example, NOAA defines an warm (cold) event when the Niño3.4 index > 0.5

(< -0.5) for 5 consecutive months; the Japan Meteorological Agency defines a single event as

JMA index > 0.5 (< -0.5) for 6 consecutive months; the National Climate Center of the China

Meteorological Administration defines a warm (cold) event when the Niño Z index > 0.5 (< -

0.5) for 6 consecutive months during which can have one non-standard month. In our study,

ENSO events were classified into warm and cold events by using the MEI, which combined

with full multivariate signals of ENSO. A warm event was defined when the MEI > 0.5 for 5

consecutive months. A cold event was defined when the MEI < -0.5 for 5 consecutive months.

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The classification of ENSO events is shown in Fig. 2. Fig 2 shows the warm (Fig. 2A) and cold

(Fig. 2B) events in 1961-1980, 1981-2000 and 2001-2015 periods. There are 17 warm events

and 12 cold events during the period of 1961-2015. The onset and the following years are

denoted with 0 and 1 respectively, and the second and third years are denoted with 2 and 3

respectively. The warm events of 1977-1978, 1994-1995 and 2015-2016 had reached their peak

value in SON(0), and the cold events of 1973-1976,1988-1989 and 2010-2011 had reached

mature phase in SON(0), while most other events reached mature phase in DJF(0). Thus, both

cases are analyzed in this study.

3.2 Singular value decomposition (SVD)

Among various methods with the function of determining coupled relationships, SVD was

regarded as the preferable one for general use which can isolate the most important modes of

variability (Bretherton et al., 1992; Wallace et al., 1992). In the spatial domain, heterogeneous

correlation patterns can find influential SST mode and provide statistical evidence of

teleconnections between two spatial fields (Shabbar and Skinner, 2004; Zhang et al., 2017).

Meanwhile, the computed results of SVD can exhibit the spatial patterns of relationship, which

is more appropriate for the data with lots of grids or stations. Thus, it is extensively utilized in

evaluating the coupling association between SST and precipitation (e.g., Wang and Ting, 2000;

Wang and Kumar, 2015). In our study, it was employed to identify the relationship between the

Pacific SST and precipitation of the YRB, utilizing both a simultaneous and lag-lead approach.

3.3 Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT), Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) and Wavelet

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Coherence (WTC)

A common continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was used to examine localized intermittent

oscillations in streamflow and ENSO indices. Wavelet transform expands time series into

frequency space and find localized intermittent periodicities (Foufoula-Georgiou and Kumar,

1994; Grinsted et al., 2004). The cross wavelet transform (XWT) combines the crossover

spectrum with the wavelet transform method. Compared with the traditional method, the XWT

has strong power for resolving coupling signals and is convenient for describing the distribution

of coupled signals in the time-frequency space. Another effective method, wavelet transform

coherence (WTC), is to quantify how coherent the cross wavelet transform in time frequency

space. The WTC can find significant coherence signals even if the common power is low

(Grinsted et al., 2004). Since the important property of time-frequency localization, wavelet

methods are extensively applied in geophysical process analysis (Kumar and Foufoula-

Georgiou, 1997).

In our study, the precipitation and Pacific SST data contained 135 meteorological stations

and 2666 cells, respectively. The coupled relationship between SST modes and precipitation

features can be accurately displayed with spatially heterogeneous correlation coefficients by

SVD. On the other hand, streamflow of three hydrological stations and ENSO indices have

more important characteristics in time and frequency space. Compared with the traditional

method, wavelet methods are more suitable for the correlation analysis of the oscillatory

behavior between two time series in time and frequency space. Thus, we utilized SVD method

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to identify the coupled relationship between the Pacific SST and precipitation, and used wavelet

methods to detect the relationship between streamflow variability and ENSO signals.

3.4 Correlation and Composite analysis

In our study, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient is employed to analyze the correlation

between the streamflow and ENSO indices.

6 ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1 𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖2
𝑟𝑟 = 1 −
𝑛𝑛3 − 𝑛𝑛
Where 𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖 is the difference between ranks for each 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 , 𝑦𝑦𝑖𝑖 data pair and 𝑛𝑛 is the number of

data pairs (Gautheir, 2001). The physical mechanism analysis was evaluated by constructing

the composite maps of 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa vertical velocity, 850hPa-specific

humidity and 850hPa-winds, for the anomalous seasons based on the ENSO events used in this

study (Table S1). The significance was estimated using a standard t-test. Moreover, the

temporal behaviors of SOI and ONI have discrepancy with MEI in several periods, further

analyses were conducted by various approaches describing ENSO variation. The details were

given in the supplemental material for readers who are interested in.

4. Results

4.1 Spatial responses of precipitation to ENSO

The evolution of precipitation variation conducted by SVD analysis uses the SON(0) and DJF(0)

SST as the left fields and lag-lead precipitation as the right fields. The total number of Pacific

SST cells is 2666, with a range from 30°S to 30°N and from 120°E to 70°W covering tropical

Pacific and most monitoring signals of ocean-atmosphere variation. The squared covariance

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fractions (SCF) and heterogeneous correlation coefficients of the leading SVD mode (Table 1)

are much larger than other modes, representing the main associations between the Pacific SST

and Yangtze River precipitation.

Fig. 3 represents correlation maps, displaying the precipitation and SON(0), DJF(0) SST

for the leading SVD mode. The spatial patterns of SON(0) and DJF(0) Pacific SST depicted in

Fig. 3(A) and (H) are the typical mature phase of ENSO. The SON(0) Pacific SST is identified

as an El Niño-like SST distribution (Fig. 3A), while the DJF(0) Pacific SST is identified as a

La Niña-like SST distribution (Fig. 3H). The positive (negative) correlation regions distribute

in the central eastern Pacific, with large areas exceeding the 90% confidence level, while the

negative (positive) correlations lie on the side of the western and southern Pacific. Fig. 3(B-G)

display the evolution of the precipitation heterogeneous correlation corresponding with the

SON(0) SST. In Fig. 3(B), the lead precipitation of upper reaches shows a small patch of

significant negative correlation. In the simultaneous season, the precipitation of south basin

shows a significant positive correlation, while the north basin exhibits a negative correlation,

indicating that an El Niño results in an increased (decreased) precipitation in the south (north)

basin during the simultaneous period. The spatial patterns of lagged precipitation shown in Fig.

3(E-G) have a significant evolution from wet condition to dry condition. Fig. 3(I-N) display the

precipitation evolution associated with the DJF(0) SST. The lead and simultaneous

precipitation shown in Fig. 3(I) and (J), respectively, show negative correlations in mid-land

and lower reaches of the basin. The lagged precipitation shown in Fig. 3(K-N) has irregular

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evolution changes in different lag time, indicating the DJF(0) SST changes will result in

different precipitation variability comparing with SON(0) SST.

Both SON(0) and DJF(0) SST anomalies have significant influences on the precipitation

in the YRB. The lag-lead responses of precipitation to SON(0) and DJF(0) SST anomalies are

compared in Fig. 4. The SON(0) and DJF(0) Pacific SSTs have significant dissimilarities in

changing precipitation condition with different lag time. The SON(0) SST identified as El Niño

SST distribution is more likely to increase precipitation in the lower reaches, especially for 1

or 2 lag season(s), while the DJF(0) SST identified as La Niña SST distribution has significant

impacts on decreasing precipitation in the mid-lower reaches. Comparatively, the SON(0) SST

anomalies also has considerable impacts on precipitation, which are distinguishable from the

influence of DJF(0) SST.

4.2 Wavelet analysis of the ENSO and streamflow

4.2.1 Oscillations in the MEI and streamflow

The results of CWT between streamflow in the YRB and the MEI are shown in Fig. 5. The

time-frequency patterns of the streamflow and the MEI are not analogous, particularly for

longer periods. The wavelet power spectra for the MEI (Fig. 5A) reveals that the significant

regions are broadly distributed in the 4-8 and 8-16 season bands. The oscillations can be divided

into three parts: before 1980, 1980-2000, and after 2000. The spectra patterns of streamflow

exhibit fewer peak power in the 4-8 and 8-16 season bands, but larger significant regions in the

16-32 and 32-64 season bands (Fig. 5B, Fig. 5C and Fig. 5D). The streamflow of Datong and

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Yichang shows peak power during 1974-1990, while the streamflow at Zhimenda station shows

a strong peak power before 1985. The dissimilarities between the MEI and streamflow suggest

that it is worth getting clear about relationship between them. The XWT and WTC help in this

regard.

4.2.2 The lag-lead relationships between the MEI and streamflow

(i) The mid-lower reaches of the basin

The XWT and WTC are performed here to measure the lag-lead relationships between the MEI

and regional streamflow signals. The results between the MEI and streamflow at Datong station

are shown in Fig. 6(A) and Fig. 6(B). Most significant power and coherence signals appear in

the 4-8 and 8-16 season bands with phase angle pointing no more than 1/4 cycle. During the

1970-1985, the phase angle changed, suggesting that the activity cycle of the MEI become

shorter than 1/4 period. In addition, the significant phase differences distributed in the 4-8

season band are more randomly, indicating that the relationships between them are more

uncertain in the short period. Although there are few regions exceed 95% confidence level in

longer period, the anti-phase with high common power is relatively obvious.

(ii) The upper reaches of the basin

The results of XWT and WTC between the MEI and the streamflow at Yichang station are

shown in Fig. 6(C) and Fig. 6(D). Significant common power mainly distributes in the 8-16 and

16-32 season bands, which is longer than that at Datong station. Before 1975 and after 1985,

the phase angle points left, indicating that the activity cycle of the MEI is 1/2 period ahead of

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the streamflow at Yichang station. In the short period, the phase angle in significant power

regions are more irregular. Comparing with the mid-lower reaches, the relationships between

upper reaches streamflow and ENSO signals are more irregular.

(iii) The source region of the basin

The results of XWT and WTC between the MEI and the streamflow at Zhimenda station are

shown in Fig. 6(E) and Fig. 6(F). Significant spectra patterns show in the 8-16 and 16-32 season

bands. The significant phase angle points up before 1990, indicating that the activity cycle of

the MEI ahead of the streamflow is between 1/2 and 3/4 period. In addition, there are two

overlapping areas during 1980-1990, showing different phase relationships between the

streamflow and the ENSO signals.

4.3 Response of seasonal streamflow to the mature phase of ENSO

The response of hydrological features to large-scale climate variations is much more

complicated because they are not only controlled by meteorological conditions but also other

underlying surface variables. Changes in SON(0) and DJF(0) SST are influential on the

precipitation and the MEI has lag-lead relationships with the regional streamflow. Fig. 7

displays the correlation coefficients between the MEI of mature ENSO phase and lagged

streamflow. The streamflow at Datong station has significant correlations with the SON(0) and

DJF(0) MEI, which distribute extensively in MAM(+1), JJA(+1), DJF(1) and MAM(+2). The

JJA(+1) and DJF(1) streamflow at Zhimenda station also has significant correlations with the

SON(0) and DJF(0) MEI. However, the lagged streamflow at Yichang station has less

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significant correlation with the SON(0) and DJF(0) MEI except for the MAM(1) streamflow,

which has a little correlation with DJF(0) MEI. Overall, the lagged correlations are more

significant than the simultaneous ones. MAM(+1), JJA(+1), DJF(1) and MAM(+2) streamflow

in the mid-lower reaches and source region are more vulnerable to be affected by ENSO. The

precipitation and streamflow of the upper reaches have little association with SON(0) mature

ENSO phase.

The streamflow anomalous behaviors of three stations are heterogeneous (Fig. 8).

Streamflow variations associated with ENSO episodes of Datong are shown in Fig. 8(A). The

violent fluctuations (exceed ±40%) of Datong streamflow commonly occur in winter (1982,

1994, 1997, 2000, 2002), with greatest change up to 91% high in 1997. The streamflow

anomalies of Yichang station are relatively lower (Fig. 8B) than Datong, which are more likely

occurring in summer or autumn within ±30%. In Zhimenda, streamflow anomalous behaviors

(exceed ±40%) distribute extensively in 1963, 1968, 1969, 1973, 1979, 1981, 1984, 1986,

1989, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2005 and 2009 (Fig. 8C), especially in summer and autumn. The

response of streamflow in the mid-lower reaches and source region are more violent than the

upper reaches.

4.4 Evolution of physical mechanism of ENSO affecting streamflow in the YRB

The evolution of geopotential height anomalies is exhibited in Fig. 9. The geopotential

height anomalies could be explained better with composite maps for El Niño and La Niña years.

During the mature phase of ENSO events, the 500-hPa geopotential height field is characterized

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with large positive anomalies, extending from the equator Pacific to the south side of the basin,

with the strongest positive anomalies in DJF(0) as shown in Fig. 9(C). A center of negative

anomalies lies over the north Pacific, and a weaker center of negative anomalies shows over

the western of Lake Baikal (Fig. 9C and D). Before the mature phase of ENSO events as shown

in Fig. 9 (A) and (B), the geopotential height field is close to the neutral years. The geopotential

height field is enhanced from the mature phase until JJA(1), with the significant positive

anomalies occupying the south basin (Fig. 9E). The large and consistent positive anomalies are

enhanced during the mature ENSO phase, occupying the south side of the basin and the western

Equatorial Pacific, and then weakened with the decay of mature phase. In the following autumn,

the geopotential height field retune to the neutral phase. As shown in Fig. 9, during the

developing stage of ENSO, the mean 5880 gpm contour of warm seasons with a normal strength

locates closely to the cold season ones (Fig. 9A and B). In the mature phases of ENSO, the

5880 gpm contour of warm seasons is strengthened and move westward, while move 180°E

easterly of cold seasons (Fig. 9C and D). The strengthened western pacific subtropical high

(WPSH) last until the following summer (Fig. 9E), and the 5880 gpm contour returns to normal

in the following autumn (Fig. 9F). The results indicate that the WPSH is strengthened during

an ENSO cycle, which has great significance to the weather condition in the YRB.

The anomalous behaviors of vertical velocity and water vapor flux are shown in Fig. 10.

Before the mature ENSO phase, the positive anomalies of vertical velocity appear in the source

and upper regions, while negative anomalies exhibit in the mid-lower reaches, but none of them

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exceed the significant level (Fig. 10A). With the development of the ENSO events, significant

vertical velocity anomalies which may result in decreased precipitation occupy the source

region (Fig. 10B). Meanwhile, the negative anomalies of vertical velocity which may result in

increased precipitation distribute in the lower reaches of basin, and significant anomalies of

water vapor flux coming from the western Pacific show on the southeast side of the basin (Fig.

10C and D). In the following summer, although the vertical velocity anomalies are not

significant, the concentrated water vapor anomalies come from the northern Pacific, resulting

in the wet condition (Fig. 10E). As a result, the wet condition of the mid-lower reaches is

facilitated by the abnormal ascending movements, together with the abundant water vapor flux

coming from the western and northern Pacific. In the meantime, significant sinking motions

and insufficient water vapor flux result in the dry condition in the source region, especially in

the development of ENSO.

5. Discussion

ENSO is regarded as the leading driver of seasonal precipitation variability than other large-

scale climate patterns, and the warm event had a tendency to increase the intensity of spring

precipitation in the east part of the YRB (Xiao et al., 2015). In our study, a heterogeneous image

of positive and negative correlations showed in the following spring between the ENSO and

precipitation. The El Niño SST distribution could result in increased precipitation in the east

part of basin, while decreased precipitation in the source region at the same time. Furthermore,

with the advancement of two different types of ENSO conditions, namely EP-ENSO and CP-

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ENSO, most studies examined the impacts of two different types of ENSO on the precipitation

variability. Cao et al., (2017) argued that the developing ENSO Modoki (Ashok, 2006) is more

important than a traditional ENSO event when it comes to present a wetter or drier signal in

rainy season for the YRB. The total amount of precipitation in eastern China had been

influenced significantly be CP ENSO events (Li et al., 2019). However, based on the

classification of ENSO events, both two types of ENSO conditions had reached their mature

phases before DJF(0). Our results provide more specific evidence of differences response of

precipitation to SON(0) and DJF(0) mature ENSO phases in the YRB. The SON(0) and DJF(0)

Pacific SSTs have significant dissimilarities in changing precipitation condition in the YRB.

The SON(0) SST identified as El Niño SST distribution is more likely to increase precipitation

in the lower reaches, while the DJF(0) SST identified as La Niña SST distribution has impacts

on decreasing precipitation, indicating a more complex association with different mature ENSO

phases.

The large-scale oceanic-atmospheric index have been chosen as the potential predictors in

lagged streamflow forecasting (Kalra and Ahmad, 2007). Antecedent SST anomalies and

atmospheric circulation signals are important for making long-term streamflow forecasts. The

results of correlation analysis in our study show the robust statistical connection between ENSO

and the streamflow of Zhimenda and Datong, indicating the opportunities of forecasting the

lagged streamflow by ENSO indices. Recent studies suggested that the ENSO event may be an

essential source forecasting the summer streamflow in YRB and the MEI is the key ocean-

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atmospheric predictors in summer streamflow forecasting (Ye et al., 2018; He et al., 2018).

However, in our study, the Yichang streamflow was demonstrated as the transition zone

between the source region and mid-lower reaches. Previous studies indicated that the Yichang

streamflow is more likely to be influenced strongly by western Pacific SST anomalies instead

of the ENSO (Xu et al., 2007; Kwon et al., 2009). Although the arguments in the literature are

multifarious, they sufficiently imply that it is important to identify other large-scale factors

which can modulate the Yichang streamflow dramatically.

In the light of our results, the streamflow at Yichang station has little correlation with the

ENSO. As the evolution of vertical velocity and water vapor flux variation shown in Fig. 9,

during the period from SON(0) to JJA(1), the Yichang station is located in the transitional

region between positive and negative anomalies, and between sufficient water vapor flux and

drier weather condition. The junction location of atmospheric circulation anomalies may lead

to the ambiguous relationship between Yichang streamflow and ENSO. On the other hand, after

the completion of TGD, the multi-aspect including the sediment regime, geomorphological

feature, the maximum and minimum streamflow has been regulated by TGD (Li et al., 2011;

Yang et al., 2014; Tian et al., 2019). However, recent study concluded that climate variation

rather than TGD operation was identified as the dominant factor contributing the streamflow

changes of the mid-lower reaches during extreme drought years (Chai et al., 2019). The

explanations of different researches for this topic seem inconsistent. In our study, after year

2006, the streamflow of Zhimenda station had no significant oscillations and phase relationship

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with ENSO signals, while the streamflow of Yichang and Datong had significant common

power and coherence signals with ENSO in 4-8 and 8-16 season bands (Fig. 5 and Fig. 6).

Meanwhile, the seasonal streamflow of Yichang and Datong had fewer positive variations with

warm ENSO phase than the Zhimenda streamflow (Fig. 8), which may relate to the regulation

of TGD. Thus, the notable relationship assessed in this paper between ENSO signals and the

streamflow of downstream of TGD should be quantitatively recognized to the natural part and

anthropogenic impacts in further study.

There is no single index which can best capture the intensity, duration and timing of ENSO

events. Previous studies usually choose Niño3.4, Niño3, and SOI index for the researches in

the YRB (e.g., Zhang et al., 2007; Xiao et al., 2015; Zhang et al., 2015). However, some scholars

argued that the single-variable SST index failed to capture the impacts of ENSO on the EAM

system, which are related to the anomalous water vapor flux and may lead to the significant

variability of Datong streamflow (Zhang et al., 2016). Therefore, we select the MEI presenting

a weighted average of the full multivariate signals to explore the influence of ENSO on the

streamflow variability. Based on the classification of ENSO events using the MEI, the evolution

of circulation anomalies and the processes can be better understood. Meanwhile, since the

temporal behaviors of SOI and ONI have discrepancy with MEI in several periods, better

analysis is needed by various approaches describing ENSO variation. The CWT of SOI and

ONI are shown in Fig. S1. The wavelet power spectra for SOI and ONI depicted in Fig. S1 (A)

and (B) reveal largely significant regions in longer season bands, while the ONI shows more

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oscillations around 16-season band. The XWT and WTC between SOI and streamflow, and

between ONI and streamflow are shown in Fig. S2. Compared with the results between MEI

and streamflow, the ONI has similar power spectra and coherence signals in longer season

bands, but fewer significant phase relationships within 16 season bands. Considering the

negative correlation between SOI and MEI, and between SOI and ONI, the results of SOI show

opposite phase relationship in significant regions. Moreover, the lag-lead relationships

calculated by Spearman’s rank correlations between ENSO indices and lagged streamflow are

shown in Fig. S3. The SOI and ONI of mature ENSO phases have extensively significant

correlations with the streamflow of Zhimenda and Datong, especially for the SON mature phase.

As for the Yichang station, the sole significant correlation showed between MAM(+1)

streamflow and DJF(0) SOI, while the ONI has non-significant correlation with lagged

streamflow of Yichang station.

The SST variation leads to both enhanced and suppressed convection, and then result in

the precipitation anomaly. In the decaying year of ENSO, the rainfall band extending from the

YRB to South Japan was strengthened (Liu and Duan, 2017). Studies showed that ENSO may

change the Walker and Hadley circulations by changing tropical ocean thermal condition

(Niedzielski, 2014), which can lead tropical and mid-latitude atmospheric circulation advance

together, and thus trigger the climate anomalies in related areas. Located in the Asian Monsoon

region, the YRB have been modulated by ENSO through the anomalously atmospheric

circulation and water vapor transporting, which impact significantly on hydrological regimes.

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In the light of our results, during the developing stage, the 500-hPa geopotential height fields

were characterized by large positive anomalies, extending from the equator to the south of Lake

Baikal. The WPSH was strengthened and moved westward, controlling the atmospheric

circulation conditions around the YRB (Fig. 9). Significantly positive vertical velocity

anomalies and insufficient water vapor flux which may result in decreased precipitation

occupied the source and upper regions. Meanwhile, an anomalous anticyclone lied over west

Pacific in DJF(0) (Fig. 10 (C)). The transport and balance of water vapor, heat, and energy

closely related to precipitation and streamflow had been changed. In the decaying stage, the

strengthened WPSH was declined and recovered to the normal condition in SON(1). The

positive vertical velocity anomalies occupied source region had shifted to significantly negative

anomalies, and abundant water vapor coming from the Pacific controlled on the southeast side

of the basin. In the following summer, the increased water vapor flux played a more important

role than vertical velocity variations. The anomalies of geopotential height anomalies, vertical

velocity, and water vapor flux changed the precipitation distribution and further affected the

regional streamflow.

Some extratropical atmospheric circulation systems, such as AO, also play important roles

for the precipitation variations over the YRB. The leading May-July AO had significantly

negative correlation with summer total precipitation. A northward shift of upper tropospheric

jet stream caused by positive phase of AO was closely related to the drier condition over the

YRB (Gong and Ho, 2003). Meanwhile, AO has a significant connection with the ENSO

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explored in the physical process (Chen et al., 2014). The spring AO-related anomalously

atmospheric circulations influencing ENSO has become a strong regime after 1970s, and the

November AO phase had a positive correlation with Pacific SST anomalies (Chen et al., 2015a;

Chen et al., 2015b). The significant AO-ENSO connection outbroke through the positive

Bjerknes feedback in subsequent winter (Chen et al., 2017). In the light of our results shown in

Fig. 9, a significantly negative center was observed over mid-high latitudes of Northern

Hemisphere. The positive phase of AO may lead to the decreased precipitation in JJA(0) shown

in Fig. 3(B and I), meanwhile, the AO-ENSO connection suggested by previous studies impacts

the tropical Pacific SST anomalies (e.g., Nakamura et al., 2006; Nakamura et al., 2007), and

thus has a compound influence on the precipitation in YRB.

In our study, we attempt to address the influence of large-scale climate variability on

hydrological features in the YRB. We started from identifying the association between Pacific

SST anomalies and precipitation. The results of the relationship between Pacific SST and

precipitation demonstrated that ENSO-like SST patterns had significantly impacts on

precipitation in the YRB. Since the precipitation is considered as only one of the main driving

factor of streamflow variation, the association between ENSO-like SST patterns and

precipitation provided the evidence of teleconnection between ENSO and streamflow. In

general, the positive anomalies of precipitation will lead to the increase of streamflow. In the

light of our results, as for the SON(0) mature phase of ENSO, the significant correlations of

precipitation and streamflow associated with ENSO are consistent in the source region and mid-

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lower reaches (Fig. 3 (E-F) and Fig. 7(A)). However, the streamflow response of source region

and mid-lower reaches are not entirely consistent with the precipitation variations for the DJF(0)

mature ENSO phase (Fig. 3 (N) and Fig. 7(B)). The results indicate the different perspectives

of the response of hydrological features to ENSO. Meanwhile, the streamflow is also affected

by anthropogenic activities and the changing pattern can be revealed in the results. Therefore,

we made special efforts in providing a more systemic and comprehensive evolution patterns of

precipitation and streamflow variations associated with ENSO.

6. Conclusions

Numerous geophysical processes are influenced by ENSO, especially in the related areas where

climate is driven by the anomalies of tropical and mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this

study, the associations between precipitation and mature ENSO phases in SON(0) and DJF(0)

were estimated using SVD method with the ERSST and observational data of 135

meteorological stations across the YRB during 1961-2015. The spectral analyses including

CWT, XWT and WTC between the MEI and the streamflow were detected. Further analysis of

correlation between the MEI and streamflow revealed the different responses of simultaneous

and lagged streamflow to mature ENSO phases. In addition, the contributions of atmospheric

factors to precipitation and streamflow anomalies were identified by the composite analysis of

geopotential height, vertical velocity and water vapor flux. Some findings can be concluded

from this investigation as follows:

(1) The SON(0) and DJF(0) Pacific SSTs have significant dissimilarities in changing

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precipitation condition with different lag time. The SON(0) SST anomalies identified as El Niño

SST distribution are more likely to increase precipitation in the mid-lower reaches, while

decrease precipitation in the source region, especially for MAM(1) and JJA(1). The DJF(0) SST

anomalies identified as La Niña SST distribution has opposite impacts on the precipitation in

MAM(1) and DJF(1) seasons. In addition, the variations of precipitation show a consistent

decrease in the source region and increase in the mid-lower reaches in JJA(1) season.

(2) The oscillations of ENSO indices with significant power distribute broadly in the 4-8

and 8-16 season bands, while the large significant oscillations of streamflow exhibit in 16-32

and 32-64 season bands. Significant common power and coherence signals identified by XWT

and WTC between the ENSO indices and the streamflow appear in 4-8, 8-16 and 16-32 season

scales. The phase relationships indicate that the activity cycle of the ENSO indices ahead of

streamflow increases from the mid-lower reaches to the source region.

(3) The linkages between the ENSO and the streamflow of the YRB are not weakened

from the lower reaches to the source region as well as the streamflow fluctuations. MAM(+1),

JJA(+1), DJF(1) and MAM(+2) streamflow in the mid-lower reaches and source region are

more vulnerable to be affected by ENSO. Meanwhile, the streamflow of mid-lower reaches has

most violent fluctuations especially in winter, while the streamflow fluctuations in the source

region are more violent which generally occur in summer and autumn. The streamflow of upper

reaches has less fluctuations associated with ENSO.

(4) The WPSH was strengthened from the DJF(0) and lasted until JJA(1). Meanwhile,

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anomalous sinking motions and divergent water vapor flux appear over the source region,

reducing the precipitation and leading to the dry condition until MAM(1). On the other hand,

ascending movements and abundant water vapor coming from northern Pacific, equatorial

western Pacific and the Bay of Bengal result in the wet condition in the mid-lower reaches.

In our study, we attempted to address a detailed analysis of the response evolution of the

hydrometeorological features to ENSO in the YRB. Distinctly different seasonal characteristics

documented here offer more comprehensive demonstration, and the medium and long-term

streamflow forecasting strategies for the YRB should thus include large-scale climatic

information, which may improve the streamflow forecasting for different regions in the basin,

and then promote water resources management and human mitigation to hydrological hazards.

Acknowledgments

This work was jointly supported by the National Science Foundation of China (51979071,

51779073, 51809073), the Distinguished Young Fund Project of Jiangsu Natural Science

Foundation (BK20180021), the National “Ten Thousand Program” Youth Talent, and the Six

Talent Peaks Project in Jiangsu Province. Tanks to the following organizations for providing

the data used in this work: China Meteorological Administration, NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD and

NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Meanwhile, cordial thanks are extended to the editor

Dr. Tian-Jun Zhou and anonymous reviewers for their critical and constructive comments which

highly improve the quality of the manuscript.

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Table Captions

Table 1. SCF and correlation coefficients of the leading SVD mode between the Pacific SST

and precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin.

Table S1. Anomalous Seasons classification based on the ENSO events used in this study.

Figure Captions

Fig. 1. Locations of the Yangtze River Basin, the meteorological stations and the main

hydrological stations.

Fig. 2. Classification of ENSO events. (A) warm events and (B) cold events.

Fig. 3. Heterogeneous correlation of the leading SVD mode between Pacific SST and

precipitation of the Yangtze River Basin for the period of 1961-2015. (A) SON(0) SST. (B)-(G)

Seasonal precipitation coupled patterns with SON Pacific SST from JJA(0) to SON(1) . (H)

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DJF(0) SST. (I)-(N) Seasonal precipitation coupled patterns with DJF Pacific SST from SON(0)

to DJF(1). The shaded areas in (A)-(N) indicate the correlations are statistically significant

exceeding 90% confidence level. The contour lines of 0.22, 0.26 and 0.34 indicate the

heterogeneous correlations exceeding 90%, 95% and 99% confidence levels respectively.

Fig. 4. The lag-lead heterogeneous correlation of the leading SVD mode of precipitation in the

Yangtze River Basin during the period of 1961-2015. (A) precipitation lagged SON(0) Pacific

SST and (B) precipitation lagged DJF(0) Pacific SST. The correlations of 0.22, 0.26 and 0.34

indicate the 90%, 95% and 99% confidence levels of the correlations respectively. The numbers

of -1-4 indicate 1 season lead and 0 to 4 season(s) lag time.

Fig. 5. Continuous wavelet power spectrum of time series during the period of 1961-2013. (A)

the MEI; (B) Datong streamflow; (C) Yichang streamflow and (D) Zhimenda streamflow. The

thick black contours depict the 95% confidence level of local power relative to red noise. The

black line is the cone of influence beyond which the picture might be distorted by the effect of

zero padding.

Fig. 6. (left) XWT and (right) WTC between the MEI and the streamflow during the period of

1961-2013. (A) and (B) Datong; (C) and (D) Yichang; (E) and (F) Zhimenda. The thick black

contours depict the 95% confidence level of local power relative to red noise, and the black line

is the cone of influence. The relative phase relationship is shown as arrows with in-phase

pointing right, anti-phase pointing left.

Fig. 7. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients in absolute value expressed in % between the

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MEI and streamflow. (A) SON(0) MEI and (B) DJF(0) MEI. The sign of the correlation is

indicated on top of each panel. The “*” and “**” indicate the significance level at 95% and 99%

respectively.

Fig. 8. Streamflow anomalies in the Yangtze River Basin and the MEI. (A) Datong station; (B)

Yichang station and (C) Zhimenda station. Streamflow anomalies are shown on the left y-axis

and the MEI is shown on the right y-axis.

Fig. 9. The difference (El Niño - La Niña) between the composite maps of the 500-hPa

geopotential height (gpm) anomalies for the ENSO events during the period of 1961-2015. (A)

JJA(0); (B) SON(0); (C) DJF(0); (D) MAM(1); (E) JJA(1) and (F) SON(1). The shaded areas

with black dots indicate the 500hPa geopotential height anomalies significant at 90%

confidence level on a standard t test. Thick red solid line is the location of the Yangtze River

Basin. The solid and dashed lines of 5880 gpm are calculated of warm and cold seasons,

respectively.

Fig. 10. The difference (El Niño - La Niña) composite map of the 850-hPa vertical velocity (10-

2
Pascal s-1) and water vapor flux (g (hPa cm s)-1) anomalies for the ENSO events during the

period of 1961-2015. (A) JJA(0); (B) SON(0); (C) DJF(0); (D) MAM(1); (E) JJA(1) and (F)

SON(1). The black arrows indicate the water vapor flux anomalies significant at 90%

confidence level on a standard t test. The shaded areas with yellow dots indicate the vertical

velocity anomalies significant at 90% confidence level on a standard t test. Thick red solid line

is the location of the Yangtze River Basin.

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Fig. S1. Continuous wavelet power spectrum of time series during the period of 1961-2013. (A)

the SOI; (B) the ONI. The thick black contours depict the 95% confidence level of local power

relative to red noise. The black line is the cone of influence beyond which the picture might be

distorted by the effect of zero padding.

Fig. S2. XWT and WTC between the ENSO indices and the streamflow during the period of

1961-2013. (A), (B) and (C) XWT between SOI and streamflow; (D), (E) and (F) WTC between

SOI and streamflow; (G), (H) and (I) XWT between ONI and streamflow; (J), (K) and (L) WTC

between ONI and streamflow. The thick black contours depict the 95% confidence level of local

power relative to red noise, and the black line is the cone of influence. The relative phase

relationship is shown as arrows with in-phase pointing right, anti-phase pointing left.

Fig. S3. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients in absolute value expressed in % between the

ENSO indices and streamflow. (A) SON(0) SOI and (B) DJF(0) SOI; (C) SON(0) ONI and (D)

DJF(0) ONI. The sign of the correlation is indicated on top of each panel. The “*” and “**”

indicate the significance level at 95% and 99% respectively.

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 The activity cycle of the MEI ahead of
streamflow increases from the mid-lower reaches
to the source region. Anomalous sinking motions
and divergent water vapor flux occupy the
Yangtze River Basin, reducing the precipitation
and leading to the dry condition in the source
region until the following March-May.
Accepted Article

Ascending movements and abundant water vapor

flux result in the wet condition in the mid-lower
reaches.

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Accepted Article

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Accepted Article

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