INDEF

Regulasi, Oligarki dan Prospek

Ekonomi Indonesia

Dr. Esther Sri Astuti S.A.

Direktur Eksekutif INDEF
Dosen FEB Universitas Diponegoro
 Outline Presentasi

Regresi
Pengertian
Demokrasi
Oligarki
Indonesia

Dampak
Ekonomi dari
Oligarki
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Oligarki
The Oligarchic Society

• The oligarchic society is designed on the control of the political power

by the “economic elite” (the big producers/investors from the
economy)
• The model of the organizing of the interest group assures the big
producers their ruling, represented through low taxation, but with
inefficiencies based on creating monopoly positions by them,
destroying propriety rights of potential future producers

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The Democratic Society

• The alternative is democracy, where political power is distributed

based on equity, this way results a leveling of budgetary incomes
through different taxation depending on obtained incomes.
• The democratic society generates a more equitable distribution of
income than the oligarchic society, because it shuffles the income
between entrepreneurs and workers, while the oligarchic society
adopts policies that reduce the labor demand, lower the wages and
increase the profits for the entrepreneurs

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Regresi Demokrasi Indonesia
Regresi Demokrasi di Indonesia

Source: Freedom Index, Freedom House, 2006-2022

6.95 7.03 6.97

6.76 6.82 6.71 6.71
6.53 6.53 6.48
6.41 6.34 6.39 6.39
6.30

2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Democracy Index, The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2006-2022
Score

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Regresi Demokrasi

• Regresi demokrasi terus terjadi di Indonesia. Selama lima tahun

terakhir, Indonesia mengalami ancaman kemunduran
demokrasi yang serius bahkan ditengarai mengalami putar balik
ke arah otoritarianisme.

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 Sumber : Winters, J., 2013

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Oligarki Nyata di Indonesia

Sumber: Survei APJII, beberapa tahun

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 Oligarki Media di Indonesia

Sumber : Winters, J., 2013

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 Relasi Politisi dan Media

Sumber : Winters, J., 2013

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Dampak Oligargi bagi Ekonomi
Indonesia
Oligarki vs Demokrasi

Oligarki mengakibatkan
performa ekonomi kurang
optimal

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Latar Belakang: 1) Indonesia sudah terlalu lama di dalam kelas
negara dengan pendapatan menengah Middle Income Trap
GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 1970 - 2021
14000
Batas Bawah High Income

12000 China

Brazil
10000

8000 Malaysia
Thailand
6000

Batas Bawah Upper Middle Income

4000 Indonesia

Batas Bawah Lower India

2000
Middle Income

0
1970

1989

2002

2015
1969

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Brazil China India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand

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Latar Belakang: 2) Kontribusi Sektor Nilai Tambah (Manufaktur)
Semakin Berkurang
Kontribusi PDB Berdasarkan Kelompok Sektor 1983-2020 (%) Presentase Jumlah Tenaga Kerja berdasarkan Sektor, 1990-2020 (%)
50 60
45
44
40
50 50
35 40
30
30
25 28
20
20
20
23
15
10
10 14
5 0

1997
1998
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Persentase Kontribusi Jasa Terhadap PDB Persentase Tenaga Kerja di Sektor Primer
Persentase Kontribusi Primer Terhadap PDB Persentase Tenaga Kerja di Sektor Manufaktur
Persentase Kontribusi Manufaktur Terhadap PDB Persentase Tenaga Kerja di Sektor Jasa

Berdasarkan kontribusi terhadap PDB: Berdasarkan proporsi tenaga kerja sektoral:

• Perubahan struktur perekonomian Indonesia, peran sektor
manufaktur lebih tinggi dari peran sektor primer semenjak awal
1990.
• sejak 2001, peran sektor mengalami tren menurun hingga saat ini
• Peran sektor jasa secara konsisten mendominasi kontribusi terhadap
PDB nasional..
• sektor primer mengalami tren penurunan; sektor manufaktur cenderung
stagnan dan melandai sejak 2014.
• sektor jasa mendominasi jumlah tenaga kerja di Indonesia. Namun,
didominasi oleh blue collar workers.
Produktivitas sektor yang menghasilkan nilai tambah yang tinggi perlu
ditingkatkan untuk menopang pertumbuhan PDB yg berkualitas.

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 Ekspor Indonesia Masih Berbasis Komoditas, Sedangkan
Vietnam sudah Berbasis Value-Added Goods
Komposisi Ekspor Indonesia Komposisi Ekspor Vietnam

• Struktur ekspor Indonesia didominasi oleh komoditas SDA, seperti minyak kelapa sawit.
• Struktur ekspor Vietnam sudah banyak mengandalkan produk dengan nilai tambah tinggi, seperti produk industri subsektor manufaktur peralatan listrik, mesin dan perlengkapan.
• Salah satu kunci dari struktur ekspor Vietnam yang didominasi oleh produk dengan nilai tambah adalah investasi asing di sektor manufaktur seperti industri elektronik dan
transportasi.
• Potensi ekspansi ekspor Indonesia untuk produk bernilai tambah tinggi perlu dioptimalisasi melalui hilirisasi komoditas berbasis sumber daya alam yang didukung oleh investasi di
sektor tersebut.

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Ekspor Vietnam Sudah Ditopang oleh Value-Added Goods
• Struktur ekspor Vietnam sudah banyak
mengandalkan produk dengan nilai
tambah tinggi, seperti produk industri
subsektor manufaktur peralatan listrik,
mesin dan perlengkapan.
• Salah satu kunci dari struktur ekspor
Vietnam yang didominasi oleh produk
dengan nilai tambah adalah investasi
asing di sektor manufaktur seperti
industri pengolahan elektronik dan
transportasi.
• Potensi ekspansi ekspor Indonesia
untuk produk bernilai tambah tinggi
perlu dioptimalisasi melalui hilirisasi
komoditas berbasis sumber daya alam
yang didukung oleh investasi di sektor
tersebut.
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Impor Pangan

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Impor Pangan

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Komposisi Impor Indonesia

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Inflasi Pangan Indonesia

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Dominasi Belanja Pangan

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Minimnya Kontribusi Sektor Pertanian

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Ketidakberpihakan Pada Sektor Pertanian

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STRATEGI KEDAULATAN PANGAN
 Terima Kasih
esa@indef.or.id
esthersriastuti@lecturer.undip.ac.id
esther.agustin.50
+62 818 930 726