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12 ESSENTIAL
BACKGAMMON
TOOLS
START WINNING AGAIN!
 OVERVIEW
1 CHECKER PLAY CONCEPTS
Concepts to Apply for Each Strategy

2 STRATEGY GUIDE
A General Guide to Picking the Right Strategy

3 BORDERLINE TAKE/PASS
Four Cruitial Reference Positions

4 SAFE OR BOLD PLAY?

When to Play Boldly or Safely in the Early Game

5 SHOT PROBABILITIES
Depending on the Distance of PIPs

6 MATCH EQUITY TABLE

Within 5-Away/5-Away Scores

7 TAKE POINT
How to Calculate It!

8 8-9-12% RULE
Rule for Pure Race Cubes

9 O’HAGANS LAW
Got At Least 9/36 Net Market Losers? Double!

10 ROLL VS ROLL
MWC in RvR Race Situations

11 JUMP A 5-PRIME
Average Number of Rolls It Takes

12 NEIL’S NUMBERS
Calculate Match Equity
 1 CHECKER PLAY CONCEPTS
Concepts to Apply for Each Strategy

Contact 1 Blitz 2 Race 3 Prime 4

Anchor Inner Board

PIP Count Structure
Men on the Bar
ng Trapped Men
Tim i Freedom Purity

Contact Zone Men in The Zone Efficiency

Threats Connectivity
Timing
Flexibility
Initiative Flexibility
n Conta
Positio Efficiency ct
Front Aggression

Self-explanatory

You have four fundamental game plans in Backgammon:

Prime: block your enemy’s checkers behind a solid structure.

Blitz Attack: put your enemy on the bar and close him out.
Race: if you have fewer pips to go, you have an advantage
in a straight racing game.
Contact: if the first three offensive game plans fail, you can
hang back and wait to get lucky and hit a late turnaround shot.

In this graphic we display which strategy concepts are particularly important

when you are pursuing each of the four fundamental game plans. Each concept
is explained below the game plans.

OVERVIEW
2 STRATEGY GUIDE
A General Guide to Picking the Right Strategy

BACK
Ahead? GAME
YES NO TIMING
Shallow
Deep
Contact? 1 Contact? 1

YES NO YES NO
130 70
Blitz 2 Race 3 Prime 4

70 100
Get lucky!
We’ve all been here...
100 130
( PIPs trailing )

This chart maps out your appropriate strategy as a function of whether you are
ahead in the race or not and whether you have contact in the position or not. No
contact means the game has turned into a straight race. You are ahead in the
race when you have fewer pips to go.

Furthermore we have listed how happy you are by playing a “Backgame” (a

specific type of Contact game where you have established two anchors in
your enemy’s home board) as a function of how many pips you are trailing.
In a Backgame you want to trail by a lot in order to have “Timing” and avoid
crunching your front position. In the “deep backgames” you need more timing
than in the shallow ones. Also, you can have “too much” timing in a “shallow
backgame”, that’s when you are simply trailing too much.

OVERVIEW
3 REF: BORDERLINE TAKE/PASS
Four Cruitial Reference Positions

All four positions: White is indifferent between taking or passing!

0 0
147 122

5 5
2 2
0 0
2 2

159 148
0 0

55 blitz MONEY GAMES 20-p holding

0 0
122 57

5 0
2 2
0 5
2 2

131 38
0 0

One man back Post late hit

Ask yourself: Is my position better/worse than the reference position?

Here we show four classic Take/Pass reference positions. This is useful, since
if you make the positions worse for White it would be a Pass.

It’s highly recommended that every time you make a mistake in one of these
typical backgammon positions, you modify the position slightly and observe
how the computer analysis changes. This practice will help you develop a sense
of how each feature influences the game.

Another valuable tip is to create your own ‘position database,’ where you save
screenshots of positions in categorized folders.

OVERVIEW
4 SAFE OR BOLD PLAY?
When to Play Boldly or Safely in the Early Game

More inner board points? YES YES NO DO THIS

4 YES BOLD
Behind in the race? YES YES NO BOLD
3 YES

2 YES BOLD
Advanced anchor? YES NO
2 YES (SAFE)
Opponent blots? YES NO 1 YES SAFE

Safe or Bold play decisions arise in many position types in the game. The relative
home board strengths play the most important role when deciding to make a safe
or bold play, with the pip count as a close second. Generally speaking, whoever
has the strongest home board will be at an advantage in a hitting contest.

OVERVIEW
5 SHOT PROBABILITIES
Depending on the Distance of PIPs

Roll 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

11 36 12 36 14 36 15 36 15 36 17 36 6 36

31% 33% 39% 42% 42% BAR 47% 17%

The probability of hitting a shot increases with distance. The reason is that
not only do you have 11/36 direct shots, but you will also have additional
combinations. For instance if the blot you are shooting at is 4 pips away, you will
have 3-1, 2-2 and 1-1 as additional combos, an extra 4/36 plus the direct 11/36,
for a total of 15/36. After six pips away the probability drops since we get into
the indirect range which requires both dice to hit.

OVERVIEW
6 MATCH EQUITY TABLE
Within 5-Away/5-Away Scores

1 2 3 4 5

1 50.0 67.7 75.1 81.4 84.2

2 32.3 50.0 59.9 66.9 74.3

3 24.9 40.1 50.0 57.1 64.8

4 18.6 33.1 42.9 50.0 57.7

5 15.8 25.7 35.2 42.3 50.0

This is a Match Equity Table that shows the winning chances in percentage from
each away-score in a 5-point match, assuming the players are equal in skill. For
instance, if you are leading 3-0 to 5, then the away score is “2-away 5-away” and
you will be a 74.3% favorite to win the match.

It’s very useful to remember the winning chances from the most frequently
occurring scores.

OVERVIEW
7 TAKE POINT
How to Calculate It!

BASELINE BL MWC Match Winning Chance

MWC if drop

RISK (RISK REWARD)

RISK = The difference between BL and MWC if take & lose
REWARD = The difference between BL and MWC if take & win
Same formula for Doubling Point, but different Baseline, Risk & Reward

If you want to calculate your Take Point (the winning chances you need in order
to correctly take a cube) this is the formula to do it with. Remember, this formula
is your “last-roll take point” which means that it doesn’t take into account the
re-cube value by owning the cube. If you have a chance to redouble, then your
actual take point is usually a lot lower than your dead cube take point.

OVERVIEW
8 8-9-12% RULE
Rule for Pure Race Cubes

White on roll
0
88 Correct:
Double/Take
5
64
0
6
2

80
0

DOUBLE IF race lead is 8% White lead:

REDOUBLE IF race lead is
TAKE IF trailing maximum
9%
12% 10%

The 8-9-12% rule explains when to double and when to take the cube in a straight
race. The race lead is measured by the pip difference divided by the leader’s pip
count. For example, if the pip count is 99 vs 113, it would be a pass, since the
14/99 is more than 12%.

This racing rule is particularly useful in “long races”. When the race reduces to
just a handful of checkers or if all checkers are stacked on the lower points, the
racing rule breaks down. In such cases, we need to apply other rules, such as
estimating how many rolls each player needs to bear off.

OVERVIEW
9 O’HAGANS LAW
Got At Least 9/36 Net Market Losers? Double!

MARKET 0 16 Market Losers:

LOSER 94

5
64
0

2 2
6
2

100 7 Anti Jokers:

0

White on roll. Correct: Double/Take

A roll that will improve
your position so much
that your opponent
should pass if doubled
Market Losers Anti Jokers 16 7 9 36

The more market losing threats you have the more aggressive you can double.
O’Hagan’s Law gives you a nice baseline reference. If you have 25% “net market
losers” and the position is more or less even in the remaining 75% of the time:
Double! Notice that there is an emphasis on “net” market losers. You should
remember to subtract anti-jokers.

If your position is stronger than 50/50 in scenarios where you don’t get a
market losing sequence, you can double with less than 25% net market losing
sequences. Conversely, if your position is weaker than 50/50 in scenarios where
you don’t get a market losing sequence, you need more than 25% net market
losing sequences to double.

OVERVIEW
10 ROLL VS ROLL
MWC in RvR Race Situations

2v2 3v3 4v4 5v5

14% 21% 25% 28%
Double/Pass Double/Take

When the race gets really short the 8-9-12% rule doesn’t work well anymore.
Now it’s better to evaluate how many rolls each side has left, assuming nobody
rolls a double. As we can see it’s a Double/Pass when it’s down to a 2v2 and 3v3
roll situation. With 4v4 roll and higher, then we have enough chances of rolling a
double to actually take the cube.

OVERVIEW
11 JUMP A 5-PRIME
Average Number of Rolls It Takes

10.46
7.62

AVERAGES
6.25
5.95
3.27

It’s very useful to know how many rolls it takes to free your back checkers from a
5-prime. Especially in doubling cube situations. These numbers were computed
precisely by using matrix multiplications and replicated by using simulations.

The most common position where these numbers prove useful is in the ‘Blitz vs
Prime’ scenario. Picture this: you have partially or fully closed out your opponent,
and now you’re trying to estimate how many rolls it will take to secure your
freedom before your front position collapses.

OVERVIEW
12 NEIL’S NUMBERS
Calculate Match Equity

Score is 4 away 2 away (example)

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
10 9 8 7 6 5 4

Multiply 9 by the point difference in the score and add 50%

9 2 50% 68% Leader’s MWC

N Points trailer needs

N Neil’s Number

Neil’s Numbers offer a quick method to determine any number in the 15-point
match equity table. The top line indicates the Trailer’s needed points to win.
Directly below, find “Neil’s number,” representing the leader’s point value. For a
3-point lead, multiply by 3, then add 50%.

When there’s a gap, like at 7-away, average neighboring Neil’s Numbers (6.5).
For 7-away vs. 5-away, the formula is 63% (50% + 6.5 * 2). For 9- and 10-away,
use 5 ⅔; for 12-, 13-, and 14-away, use 4 ¾, 4 ½, and 4 ¼ respectively.

OVERVIEW
The “TOOLBOX” Poster

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