You are on page 1of 21

Equity Strategy │ 6 February 2024

Equity Strategy
A Bull Market in the Making

We anticipate a one-round election is likely to occur INDEX TARGET


End-2024 JCI: 8,300 (upgrade)
Election day is set for February 14th, with the possibility of a second round if none of the presidential End-2024 IDX80: 155 (upgrade)
candidates achieve over 50% of the vote and at least 20% in more than half of Indonesia’s
provinces. Our analysis indicates that the market has somehow priced in a scenario favoring
Prabowo-Gibran (PG) in a single round of elections. This assessment is based on several factors: 1)
latest average of recent 6 survey sources revealed PG’s polling at a near 50% (figure 3), 2)
President Jokowi’s satisfaction rate remains robust at ~79% as of the latest survey conducted on
24 Jan., 3) Historical data indicates a strong inverse correlation between presidential satisfaction
ratings and inflation rates, with the latter remaining low, 4) Indonesia experiences a significant YTD
foreign inflows, outpacing many EMs. Given PG's campaign pledges as a Jokowi continuity
candidate, it is reasonable to expect a smoother transition to the October 2024 presidential
inauguration, which is approximately 7 months away. It is worth noting that Indonesia’s net
equity foreign flows reached USD683mn YTD, significantly higher compared to Philippines
($89mn), Thailand (-$752mn), Vietnam ($45mn), India (-$3.1bn). In our analysis of the campaigns
and debates of three candidate pairs (AM, PG, GM), we observe a clear distinction: AM emphasizes
more on social and economic equality, while PG focuses more on pro-growth policies with high
multiplier (which is a process to a reduction in income inequality), down-streaming programs, and
food & basic needs distribution. PG places significant emphasis on their long-term master plan,
aimed at lifting Indonesia out of its prolonged middle-income trap by 2045 (kindly refer to Prabowo’s
recent book launched: Strategy Transformasi Bangsa: Menuju Indonesia Emas 2045).
Willinoy Sitorus
willinoy.sitorus@trimegah.com
Which sector/stocks to experience a +Ve knee-jerk reaction under a 1-round scenario?
Richardson Raymond
We anticipate a positive knee-jerk reaction in metal-related stocks like ADMR, MBMA, MDKA, and
richardson.raymond@trimegah.com
ANTM. Additionally, stocks such as UNVR, MIDI, ULTJ, CPIN, JPFA, HMSP, GGRM, BBRI, BRIS,
BTPS, PTPP, ISAT, and EXCL are expected to see positive sentiment from 1 round election in our
Alpinus Dewangga
view. We also expect foreign inflows to initially target basket-buys on big banks (including BRIS)
Alpinus.raditya@trimegah.com
and ASII given their size, liquidity and good dividend yields.

A scenario of JCI reaching the 10,000-mark post-election?


We anticipate a JCI re-rating in the event of a single-round election period, despite our modest
estimate of +10% EPS growth for this year (excluding commodities). We expect the market to
factor in numerous upcoming policies by January 2025, following a 100-day internal
review of the new Cabinet after the October 2024 presidential inauguration. It is
noteworthy that while China experienced a decline in MSCI EM weighting last year (from 47.6% in
Jan23 to 41.3% in Jan24), this was counterbalanced by increases in weighting positions for
countries like Taiwan, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, and India. Meanwhile, the weightings of
Indonesia (1.5% in Jan23 to 1.7% in Jan24) and other Southeast Asian countries remained
relatively stagnant, a trend we attribute to China's weakening economy.
(continue to next page)

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 1


As we think the market increasingly factors in Indonesia's commitment to a pro-growth,
value-add economy, including initiatives such as down streaming, alongside an
aggressive fiscal multiplier, the country stands on the brink of a favorable position especially
with Indonesia’s sizeable population of 280mn with a productive average age of 30 years old. This
outlook is bolstered by the current robust bank and corporate balance sheets, low inflation rates,
and relatively strong expected GDP growth. The spotlight on Indonesia is expected to intensify by
the end of 2024 (especially after US election in Nov24), once ~64 countries worldwide
(representing nearly half of the global population) have completed their election periods in our
view. We conducted an analysis on JCI’s trailing P/E re-rating/de-rating 1-year pre & post-election
periods in 2004 and 2014 where there emerged new faces in the presidential seats (SBY in 2004
and Jokowi in 2014). Our analysis suggests that during SBY’s 1ST round election in April-
May 2004, there was a massive trailing P/E re-rating from 6.1x (1-year before election)
to 11.9x (1-year after). Also during Jokowi’s 2014 election, there was a 17% trailing
P/E re-rating from 18.6x to 21.8x. JCI’s current 1-year forward P/E is 13.9x, while the trailing
P/E is 17.5x currently. The -21% gap is very low compared to 5 years, 10 years and 15 years gap
difference of -29%/30%/30%. This implies that 2024 consensus earnings is relatively
conservative, suggesting that a room for a positive knee-jerk JCI P/E re-rating is
plausible. Assuming both 2024-26 JCI EPS growth by +10% respectively and 2025’s P/E
re-rate by +14% to 15.9x P/E (from current 13.9x 1 yr. forward P/E), it is possible for
our index to reach 10,000 level by 2025. This is under the assumption of a more stable
USD/IDR and interest rate cut and non-banks and revival of small-mid caps as well. At this current
juncture, we raise our end-2024 JCI index target to 8,300 (from 7,800) based on a +10%
EPS growth and a +6% P/E re-rating. Should we take a look at India’s Nifty500 index where they
apply aggressive fiscal deficit of 6-7% over the past decade coupled with a strong 10 years GDP
growth average of ~6%, their 1 year forward P/E re-rated from 13.7x 10 years ago to 19.3x
currently, implying a +41% re-rating.

Key risk to our JCI index end-2024 target: If a 2-round scenario happens
In the event of a 2nd round of elections held in June, it is probable that the acceleration of M2
supply will be postponed, with increased risk stemming from the heightened chances for either
Anies-Muhaimin (01-AM) or Ganjar-Mahfud (03-GM) to gain momentum. This could contribute to
heightened risk-off sentiments. In the event of two rounds, we favor safe-haven banks, ASII,
MYOR, and other liquid stocks offering attractive dividend yields. We compiled selections of
lucrative dividend yield stocks (besides the big banks which can offer 4-5% near term dividend
yields) to be provided from February to July 2024 which are PGAS at 9.7% dividend yield,
PTBA at 12.3%, ITMG at 9.6%, ADRO at 6.5%, UNTR at 5.7%, GGRM 11.8%, HMSP 8.6%
and ASII at 7.1% (conservatively assume no special dividend), which all offers both sizeable size
and liquidity.

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 2


Figure 1. Upcoming election timeline*

Source: KPU
* Please note that the simultaneous regional elections may be scheduled earlier, in September, just before the new presidential inauguration.

Figure 2. Jokowi and SBY’s performance satisfaction survey relative to inflation

Source: Indikator latest ppt. – Survey Nasional 10-16 January 2024

Figure 3. Latest presidential polling based on several surveys

Undecided/
Anies- Prabowo- Ganjar-
Survey Institutes Date Published Area Coverage Sample Size Declined to
Muhaimin Gibran Mahmud
Respond
Indonesia Political Opinion 10 Jan'24 Indonesia 1,200 34.5 42.3 21.5 1.7
Lembaga Survei Indonesia 20 Jan'24 Indonesia 1,206 23.2 47 21.7 8
Indikator Politik Indonesia Feb' 24 Indonesia 1,200 22.4 46.4 20.2 11.1
Populi Center 11 Dec'23 Indonesia 1,200 21.7 46.7 21.7 9.9
Poltracking Indonesia 19 Jan'24 Indonesia 1,220 26.9 46.7 20.6 5.8
Charta Politika 21 Jan'24 Indonesia 1,220 26.7 42.2 28 3.1

Source: Various Survey Institutes, Trimegah research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 3


Figure 4. Over the past 2 decades during election period, usually Figure 5. Indonesia is experiencing a relatively strong foreign inflow
economic activities accelerate after presidential election YTD; how much of this is pricing-in 1 round of election?

($ mn)
Net foreign equity inflows, YTD
1000 683
500
89 45
0
Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand India
-500

-1000 -752
-1500

-2000

-2500

-3000

-3500 -3,100

Source: BI, Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah research

Figure 6. Presidential candidates’ vision and missions


Figure 1. Indonesia Presidential candidate pairs’ vision and missions

Presidential
Candidate
Pairs

Anies Rasyid Baswedan & Abdul H. Prabowo Subianto &


Muhaimin Iskandar Gibran Rakabuming Raka Ganjar Pranowo & Mahfud M.D.

Vision

A Just and Prosperous Indonesia for Together with Onward Indonesia, Moving Quickly Towards an Excellent
All Towards Golden Indonesia 2045 Indonesia

Missions
Ensuring the availability of basic Healthy, well-being, and educated
necessities and cheap living cost via Amplifying Pancasila ideology, Indonesian people.
1
food self-sufficiency, energy security, democracy, and human rights (HAM).
and water sovereignty.
Eradicating poverty by expanding Strengthening national security defense Indonesia being competitive in
business opportunities and creating job system and encourage country’s self- innovation and technology.
opportunities, achieving fair job independence via self-sufficiency in food,
compensations, guaranteeing energy, & water, Islamic economy, digital
2 economic advancement based on self- economy, green economy, and blue
independence and equality, and economy.
supporting Indonesia’s corporations to
be successful domestically and grow at
global level.
Achieving ecological fairness for the Continuing infrastructure development Resilient and self-independent
upcoming generations. and increasing high-quality job economy.
opportunities, encouraging
3 entrepreneurship, developing creative
industry, and developing agro-maritime
industry in production centers via active
cooperative roles.
Constructing cities and villages based Solidifying developments of human Eradicating poverty and between-area
on areas that are based on humanity, resources (SDM), science, technology, inequality from their roots.
fairness, and mutual progresses. education, health, sports achievements,
4
gender equality, stronger female role,
youths (Millennial & Gen-Z), and disabled
people.
Achieving healthy, smart, productive, Continuing down-streaming and Digital ecosystem prioritizing fast and
morally upright, and cultured developing industries based on natural affordable internet access.
5
Indonesian people resources to improve domestic value-
added.
Achieving well-being and happy Developing from villages and from Economic development considering
6 Indonesian families as the nation root. bottom for the purpose of economic environmental sustainability.
growth, and poverty eradication.
Solidifying country’s security and Strengthening reforms in politics, law, Safeguarded democracy via corruption
defense system, and increasing and bureaucracy, along with eradication eradication and inclusive government
7 Indonesia’s roles and leadership at and prevention of corruption, drugs, based on the law supremacy.
global level, in order to achieve national gambling, and smuggling.
interest and global peace.
Restoring democracy quality, enforcing Strengthening synchronization between Indonesia as respected nation at
law and human rights (HAM), harmonic life with environment, nature, international stages, along with solid
eradicating poverty without and culture, together with improvement and modern defense.
8
discrimination, and conducting in tolerance among religious people, in
governments that advocate for the order to become fair and prosperous
people. society.
Source: KPU, Trimegah Research

Source: KPU, Trimegah research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 4


Figure 7. Metal-related has been underperforming JCI index over Figure 8. The following stocks should experience a positive
the past 1 year; If one-round, should provide +Ve sentiment on sentiment if a one-round election concludes successfully in our view
the sector
100%
20%
JCI index
10% 80% ULTJ rel. to JCI

0% HMSP rel. to JCI


60% GGRM rel. to JCI
-10%
BBRI rel. to JCI
-20% 40%
BRIS rel. to JCI

-30% BTPS rel. to JCI


20%
PTPP rel. to JCI
-40%
ISAT rel. to JCI
0%
-50% EXCL rel. to JCI

-60% -20% CPIN rel. to JCI


JPFA rel. to JCI
-70% JCI ADMR relative to JCI
MBMA relative to JCI MDKA relative to JCI -40% MIDI rel. to JCI
ANTM relative to JCI UNVR rel. to JCI
-60%

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah research Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah research

Figure 9. Potential dividend yield analysis (February to July 2024) among our well-covered Trimegah coverage universe

Source: Trimegah Research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 5


Figure 10. Indonesia, along with other Southeast Asian countries, did not experience
the spill-over effect from the significant reduction in China’s MSCI EM weighting.
MSCI Emerging Markets Weighting
Country January 2023 January 2024 Change
Southeast Asia (SEA)
Indonesia 1.48% 1.74% 0.26%
Malaysia 1.28% 1.13% -0.14%
Philippines 0.69% 0.64% -0.05%
Thailand 1.90% 1.58% -0.32%

Asia (exc. SEA)


China 47.65% 41.28% -6.37%
India 11.70% 15.49% 3.78%
South Korea 5.92% 6.84% 0.92%
Taiwan 5.84% 7.28% 1.43%

Latin America
Brazil 2.86% 3.55% 0.69%
Chile 0.43% 0.43% 0.00%
Colombia 0.06% 0.07% 0.00%
Mexico 1.46% 2.06% 0.60%
Peru 0.31% 0.43% 0.11%

Europe
Czech Republic 0.13% 0.15% 0.02%
Greece 0.17% 0.28% 0.11%
Hungary 0.09% 0.13% 0.04%
Poland 0.44% 0.64% 0.20%

Middle East & others


Kuwait 0.15% 0.14% 0.00%
Qatar 0.70% 0.66% -0.03%
Saudi Arabia 13.16% 14.13% 0.97%
UAE 1.19% 1.14% -0.05%
Turkey 0.60% 0.63% 0.04%
Egypt 0.04% 0.06% 0.02%
South Africa 1.73% 1.32% -0.41%

Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Trimegah Research

Figure 11. JCI’s P/E re-rated post 1-year avg. after SBY and Jokowi’s 1st election round back in 2004 and 2014

SBY period Jokowi period


14.0 23.0
11.9 21.8
12.0 22.0

10.0 21.0

8.0 20.0
6.1
6.0 19.0 18.6

4.0 18.0

2.0 17.0

0.0 16.0
1 -year trail. P/E (x) before election in April 1 year trail. P/E (x) after April 2004 election 1 -year trail. P/E (x) before election in April 1 year trail. P/E (x) after April 2004 election
2004 2004

Source: Trimegah Research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 6


Figure 12. The weighting of non-bank stocks*, which received extensive analyst coverage ten years ago, has declined,
while that of the big four banks has significantly increased.

JCI Index Constituents: 2013 vs. 2024


(Big 4 banks vs. non-banks*)
60.0
52.3

50.0
% weight to JCI

40.0

30.0 27.2
30.3
20.0

17.0
10.0

-
January 2013 January 2024

Non-banks (well covered stocks)* Big 4 banks

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research


* ASII, TLKM, UNVR, PGAS, GGRM, SMGR, INTP, UNTR, CPIN, KLBF, INDF, ADRO, EXCL, ITMG, ICBP, JSMR, ISAT, MNCN, PTBA, AALI, TBIG, INCO, TOWR, SCMA, AMRT, BSDE,
HRUM, LSIP, BBTN, AUTO, ACES, SMRA, JPFA, ANTM, CTRA, MAPI, BJBR, RALS, ERAA, INDY, ROTI, MEDC, SSIA, PTPP, ULTJ, ADHI, ESSA, BFIN, MIDI.

Figure 13. JCI’s trailing Vs forward P/E has narrowed compared Figure 14. Our Trimegah universe suggests a +10% 2024 net profit
to historical level growth (ex-GOTO, ex-commodities/energy). Assuming another
+10% profit growth in 2025 coupled with a JCI re-rating by +14%,
it is possible for JCI index to reach the 10,000 mark by 2025

JCI trailing P/E's premium/discount to 1 yr. TRIM coverage NP growth (exclude GOTO &
forward P/E commodities)
0% 35%
29%
Jul-17
Jul-11

Jul-13

Jul-15

Jul-19

Jul-21

Jul-23
Nov-22
Nov-10

Mar-12
Nov-12

Nov-14

Nov-16

Nov-18

Nov-20
Mar-10

Mar-14

Mar-16

Mar-18

Mar-20

Mar-22

28%
30%
-10%
25%
-20% 20% 17%

15%
-30% 10%
10%
-40% 5%
0%
-50% 2021 2022 2023f 2024f

-60% TRIM coverage NP growth (exclude GOTO & commodities)

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah research Source: Companies, Trimegah research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 7


Widening Govt Budget Deficit Fuel Growth & Stimulate Equity Market?

A narrative is emerging concerning the proposal to increase the fiscal deficit threshold
by 3%, put forth by a presidential candidate's campaign team. This idea was put forth by
Prabowo-Gibran’s campaign team, specifically by Erwin Aksa (News Link). The team explicitly
proposed a rhetorical question to increase the budget deficit threshold to 6% (current: 3%),
immediately after addressing the urgency to complete the New Capital City (IKN) project. A
comparison of the magnitude of government spending to GDP indicates that the share of
Indonesia's government spending (budget basis) to GDP, when compared to India, is relatively
low. Can India's aggressive fiscal budget (relative to GDP) historically serve as a benchmark,
considering the strength of India’s economy over the past 20 years?

Enhancing the tax ratio and optimizing the fiscal multiplier are crucial tasks for
Indonesia. There have been significant efforts to improve the tax ratio during President Jokowi's
regime since 2014, including measures like tax amnesty and enhancements in administration/data
collection. We anticipate the continuation of improvements in the tax ratio beyond President
Jokowi's tenure. In their campaign mission booklet, Anies-Cak Imin and Prabowo-Gibran
ambitiously target a tax ratio of 13-16% and 23% (as of September 2023, the tax ratio is a mere
9%). Achieving these ambitious targets necessitates a proactive budget stance by the government
to stimulate the economy. The challenge in fiscal spending, not only in Indonesia but globally, lies
in enforcing meticulous fiscal measurements to ensure the apparent effectiveness of the fiscal
multiplier. Indonesia aspires to achieve an ambitious $5.16 trillion GDP by 2030 (+18% CAGR
from 2022 to 2030). A paradigm shift is needed.

Indonesia notably relies on commodities for a significant portion of its GDP, maintaining a robust
trade balance. The dynamics of tax collection closely follow global commodity price trends,
reflecting a natural inclination toward a price-taker model. When comparing Indonesia to other
nations, a higher share of government spending to GDP tends to result in a lower fiscal multiplier.
However, if the fiscal multiplier is high, concerns about widening fiscal deficits should not be an
issue for bond investors, given the higher tax-to-GDP ratio. Interestingly, data suggests that a
higher fiscal multiplier tends to occur in situations where inflation is higher or economic circulation
is equal on many fronts. The focus on fiscal redistribution should be a key consideration in
implementing this policy.

India's success story demonstrates that reforms come with a cost, yet being open to the
idea is worthwhile. India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, who assumed office in 2014, has
driven structural improvements in the economy. Most policies were intended to intensify the
manufacturing sector, as the 2008 Great Recession already showed how “fragile” the country was
if it kept relying on the service sector. The first policy was tax reform. The India’s govt. introduced
the Good and Services Tax (GST) system in 2017, where it has simplified the tax structure and
digitize tax payments since then. The results were then desirable. The GST registration increased
at CAGR of +14% from 2017 until 2022. Coherently, the GST revenues grew substantially at CAGR
of almost +11% from 2018 until 2022. Another supporting policy was the so-called “demonetizing”,
where the govt. replaced the old INR500 and INR1,000 with the new INR500 and INR2,000 instead
back in 8 November 2016. After India’s tax reform and demonetization, India Stock market
outperform significantly post the stimulus (Nifty 500 index increased by +154% over
the past 7 years Vs. JCI’s +37%). Average India Fiscal Multiplier is at 0.91 for the last 5 years.

Figure 15. Comparison of Fiscal Multiplier in several countries

Source: CEIC, Trimegah research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 8


Figure 16. India’s GDP has been relatively strong over the past Figure 17. India’s fiscal balance to GDP has been relatively more
decade aggressive Vs. Indo

(%)
Avg. GDP growth (exclude 2020 Covid): +7.2%
(%)
25.0 Avg. inflation rate (exclude 2020 Covid): +5.4% 0.0
20.0 -1.0
15.0 -2.0
10.0 -3.0
5.0
-4.0
0.0
-5.0
Jul-15

Nov-18

Jul-20
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14

May-16

Jun-18

Apr-19

May-21

Jan-23
Jun-23
Feb-15

Dec-15

Mar-17
Aug-17
Jan-18

Sep-19
Feb-20

Dec-20

Mar-22
Aug-22
Oct-16

Oct-21
-5.0
-6.0
-10.0
-7.0
-15.0

-20.0
-8.0

-25.0 -9.0

-30.0 -10.0

India real GDP growth, YoY India inflation, YoY India fiscal balance to GDP Indonesia fiscal balance to GDP

Source: CEIC, India Ministry of Statistics, World Bank, Trimegah Research Source: CEIC, BPS, India Ministry of Statistics, Trimegah Research

Figure 18. India’s budget deficit to GDP Vs. India’s equity market Figure 19. India’s average bank loan growth has been relatively
(Nifty 500) stable since 2008, closely resembling Indonesia's average growth of
13% during the same period, …

(%) (index)
(%)
0.0 18,000
35.0
Jul-15

Jul-20
Aug-17

Aug-22
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14

Feb-15

May-16

Jun-18
Nov-18
Apr-19
Sep-19

May-21

Mar-22

Jun-23
Sep-14

Dec-15

Mar-17

Jan-18

Feb-20

Dec-20

Jan-23
Oct-16

Oct-21

-1.0 16,000
30.0
-2.0
14,000
25.0
-3.0
12,000 20.0
-4.0
10,000 15.0
-5.0
8,000 10.0
-6.0
6,000 5.0
-7.0
4,000 0.0
-8.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-9.0 2,000 -5.0

-10.0 -
India banks loan growth Indonesia banks loan growth
India budget deficit to GDP Nifty 500 index (RHS)

Source: CEIC, India Ministry of Statistics, Bloomberg, Trimegah Research Source: Reserve Bank of India, OJK, Trimegah research

Figure 20. … although their banks’ NPL has been relatively higher Figure 21. India’s market significantly outperforms Indonesia over
the past 10 years

(%) Indonesia Vs. India's 10 years equity index


12.0 performances
10.0 350% 327%

8.0
300%

250%
6.0

200%
4.0
150%
2.0
100%
64%
0.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 50%
India banks NPL Indonesia banks NPL 0%
Indonesia JCI 10 years performance India Nifty 500 10 years performance

Source: Reserve Bank of India, OJK, Trimegah research Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 9


Figure 22. Indonesia’s JCI has de-rated -4% over the past 10 Figure 23. … while India has re-rated by +41%
years…

Indonesia JCI 10 years forward P/E re-rating/de- India Nifty 500 10 years forward P/E re-rating/de-
rating (x) rating (x)
14.6 14.5 25.0

14.4 19.4
20.0

14.2
15.0 13.7
14.0 13.9
10.0
13.8

13.6 5.0

13.4 0.0
Feb 2014 Feb 2024 Feb 2014 Feb 2024

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah research Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 10


Revisiting Why Indonesia Deserves Attention
The only Real Wealth is Land…
We recently read Prabowo's latest book, "Strategi Transformasi Bangsa – Menuju Indonesia Emas
2045." According to our understanding, the book outlines Indonesia's vision of leveraging its
abundant natural resources and human capital as key drivers for future economic expansion.
Situated along the equator, Indonesia possesses nearly one-third of the world's tropical climate,
second only to Brazil. The country spans 1.9mn km2, distributed across 17,500 islands, with a
staggering 14mn ha of untapped land earmarked for future development.

The vast land area comes with abundant natural resources that will be pivotal for Indonesia’s
sustained growth moving forward. Notable natural resources that will be key for Indonesia’s
future are nickel, bauxite, copper, crude palm oil, and geothermal. This extensive landmass
and the absence of a winter season afford Indonesia the distinct advantage of three harvest
periods annually, thereby enhancing its competitiveness in the agricultural sector.

Nickel downstream initiatives: a step in the right direction

Indonesia positions itself as the global epicenter for nickel production. In 2014, the Indonesian
government initiated a policy to ban the export of raw nickel ore, aiming to boost domestic
production of value-added products. However, the policy was temporarily relaxed in 2017 driven
by a budget deficit in 2016. Despite facing criticism and a WTO ruling against the policy, Indonesia
reinstated the export ban in 2020, and it remains in effect. The strategy was successful, as
Indonesia’s nickel export value increased from ~$3bn in 2013 to ~$30bn in 2022.

Figure 24. Indonesia nickel product export value

Nickel products export value


16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000
$mn

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10M23

Nickel Ore Ferronickel Nickel Matte Nickel Intermediate Stainless Steel

Source: BPS, Trimegah Research

Indonesia is advancing its nickel downstream pipeline by venturing into battery cell manufacturing
for EVs. The country aims to establish a comprehensive EV battery manufacturing ecosystem,
covering raw material mining, refining, cathode manufacturing, battery cell production, battery
pack assembly, EV manufacturing, charging stations, and recycling facilities. Major multinational
corporations, including LG, CATL, Ford, and Foxconn, have committed a total of $42 billion
(IDR 630 trillion) to support this ambitious initiative, as reported by the Ministry of Investment.

Our rough estimate suggests that EV battery production has the potential to increase the value of
raw materials by over 10 times (from class 1 nickel). Moreover, local battery manufacturing is
expected to drive down domestic EV prices, fostering a more affordable market and likely boosting
the market share of electric vehicles (EVs).

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 11


Figure 25. Production cost of different battery cathode chemistries and Multiplier of different battery cathode chemistries

Battery cost ($/kWh) NCA+ NMC 433 NMC 532 NMC 622 NMC 811 LFP
Raw material cost ($/kWh):
Lithium carbonate 11.5 12.3 14.0 12.9 11.5 8.7
Nickel 11.4 6.1 7.6 8.6 10.1
Manganese 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2
Cobalt 0.9 6.1 4.1 3.8 1.7
Phosporus 0.4
Iron 0.2
Others 4.7 6.9 5.0 5.3 4.5 2.7
Material price ($/kWh) 29 32 31 31 28 12
Manufacturing cost ($/kWh) 85 87 82 81 83 69
Pack Cost ($/kWh) 113 119 113 112 111 81

Battery cost (IDRmn) NCA+ NMC 433 NMC 532 NMC 622 NMC 811 LFP
For 60kWh battery:
Material price (IDRmn) 27 30 29 29 26
Pack cost (IDRmn) 105 111 105 104 103
Retail IONIQ 5 battery (60kWh) 300 300 300 300 300
multiplier (x) 11.3 10.1 10.3 10.4 11.5

For 26.7kWh battery:


Material price (IDRmn) 5
Pack cost (IDRmn) 34
Retail Air EV battery price (26.7kWh) 100
multiplier (x) 20.1
*Assuming 15.5k USD/IDR

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research

Aluminium: powering green future

Indonesia holds the 7th position globally in bauxite reserves and ranks 5th in bauxite production
as of 2022. However, the country is placed 15th in global alumina production and is not included
in the top global aluminum producers by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). This is
attributed to the limited number of aluminum smelters and alumina processing facilities in
Indonesia. Currently, the country produces approximately 250 thousand metric tons (kt) of
aluminum per year, primarily driven by Inalum (Indonesia Asahan Aluminium), a government-
owned aluminum smelting company. Despite being a key exporter of bauxite, Indonesia becomes
a net importer of aluminum as its demand reaches around 1 mn tonnes per annum.

Figure 26. Global bauxite and alumina production and Figure 27. Global aluminium production and aluminium smelter
reserves as of 2022 capacity as of 2022; Indonesia will be a relevant aluminum
player by 2030

Reserves (kt) Bauxite production (kt) Alumina production (kt)


2022 2022 2022
Guinea 7,400,000 86,000 440
Smelter production (kt) Smelter capacity (kt)
Vietnam 5,800,000 3,800 1,500 2022 2022
Australia 5,100,000 100,000 20,000 China 40,000 44,000
Other 5,100,000 8,900 2,200
Other 9,100 12,000
Brazil 2,700,000 33,000 11,000
Jamaica 2,000,000 3,900 480 India 4,000 4,100
Indonesia 1,000,000 21,000 1,100 Russia 3,700 4,000
China 710,000 90,000 76,000
Canada 3,000 3,300
India 660,000 17,000 7,400
Russia 500,000 5,000 3,100 United Arab Emirates 2,700 2,800
Saudi Arabia 180,000 4,800 2,000 Bahrain 1,600 1,600
Kazakhastan 160,000 4,400 1,400 Australia 1,500 1,700
United States 20,000 0 1,200
United Arab Emirates 0 0 2,300
Norway 1,400 1,400
Ireland 0 0 1,800 United States 860 1,600
Spain 0 0 1,700 Iceland 750 900
Canada 0 0 1,300
Germany 0 0 750
Total 68,610 77,400
Ukraine 0 0 740

Source: USGS, Trimegah Research Source: USGS, Trimegah Research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 12


Building on the success of the nickel downstream agenda, the Indonesian government has
implemented a ban on the raw export of bauxite since June 2023. This move has led to a drastic -
87% YoY drop in the export value of bauxite, reaching only $68 million as of October 2023.

Simultaneously, Indonesia is witnessing a mega construction of several aluminum smelters. A


significant project is the first phase of Adaro Mineral's smelter, scheduled to begin operations in
2025 with a capacity of 500 ktpa and to further expand to 1.5mn tonnes by 2030, which will make
Indonesia’s aluminum smelter position relevant globally. This facility will focus on refining alumina
into aluminum. Another notable endeavor is the expansion of Inalum's aluminum smelter from 250
ktpa to 300 ktpa, which is set to commence this year. Additionally, Inalum and ANTM are
collaborating on the SGAR (Smelter Grade Alumina Refinery) project with a capacity of 500ktpa of
alumina.

Figure 28. We are seeing the effect of raw bauxite export to Figure 29. Aluminium alloys have a >10x value multiplier compared
bauxite export value in 2023 to raw bauxite

Aluminium alloy value multiplier


Aluminium products export value 3,000 14.0
700
11.9
12.0
2,500
600 10.6
9.9 10.1
10.0
500 2,000 8.7

7.6
400 7.2 8.0
$mn

$/t

1,500
300
6.0

200 1,000
4.0
100
500
2.0
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10M23
0 0.0
Aluminium ores and concentrates Unwrought aluminium, not alloyed 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10M23

Unwrought aluminium, alloyed Aluminium ores and concentrates Unwrought aluminium, alloyed Multiplier (x, RHS)

*Assuming 1kg of bauxite = 0.15kg of aluminium alloy

Source: BPS, Trimegah Research Source: BPS, Trimegah Research

Aluminium also plays a key role in Indonesia’s vision to become an end-to-end EV manufacturing
ecosystem. 30% more aluminium is used in EV compared to ICE (Internal Combustion Engine).
Aluminium is a preferred metal for EV due to its lightweight, emission reduction, charging time,
and increasing overall driving range. Aluminium will also play a role in green energy as 1 ton of
aluminium is used for every 1MW of wind turbine and is also used in the manufacturing of solar
panels.

Copper: Backbone of electrified future

As per the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Indonesia ranked as the 7th largest copper ore
producer globally in 2022, with an output of approximately 920 kt of mined copper. However, the
refined copper production from this mined ore was lower, standing at around 300 kt ranked 15th
globally. In terms of copper reserves, Indonesia holds the 10th position globally. Similar to nickel
and aluminium, the government have banned raw copper ore export except for companies that are
currently building a copper smelter.

Figure 30. Global copper production and reserves


Reserves (kt) Mine production (kt) Refinery production (kt)
2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
Chile 190,000 5,620 5,200 2,270 2,100
Australia 97,000 813 830 385 380
Peru 81,000 2,300 2,200 336 290
Russia 62,000 940 1,000 981 1,100
Mexico 53,000 734 740 473 470
United States 44,000 1,230 1,300 971 1,000
Congo 31,000 1,740 2,200 1,450 1,700
Poland 30,000 391 390 578 590
China 27,000 1,910 1,900 10,500 11,000
Indonesia 24,000 731 920 290 300
Kazakhastan 20,000 510 580 500 510
Zambia 19,000 842 770 354 350
Canada 7,600 550 530 287 310
Germany 0 0 0 615 620
Japan 0 0 0 1,510 1,600
Korea 0 0 0 647 660
Other 200,000 2,850 3,400 3,170 3,000
Total 885,600 21,161 21,960 25,317 25,980

Source: USGS, Trimegah Research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 13


Nickel, copper, and aluminum: an opportunity to escape middle income trap

We believe that both aluminum and copper are poised to replicate the export value-added success
witnessed with nickel. This strategic move represents a step towards the right direction, particularly
considering Indonesia's previous experience of premature deindustrialization, skipping the
manufacturing-oriented industry phase and moving directly into a less-productive service-oriented
industry.

The focus on aluminum and copper offers Indonesia an opportunity to re-enter industrialization era
and foster economic growth by increasing manufacturing contribution to Indonesia’s GDP. To note
manufacturing sector contribution to Indonesia’s GDP have decreased from 22% to 20.5% in the
past 8 years. Based on UNCTAD studies, falling contribution of manufacturing-to-GDP should
only occur once manufacturing employment-to-total employment reached 30—40%
(currently 14%), or once the GDP per capita reached USD8,100. These benchmarks are
crucial for a country to undergo proper structural development and avoid the middle-
income trap—requirements that Indonesia has yet to fulfill. Re-industrialization presents
Indonesia with a second chance to follow the proper structural development trajectory.

Figure 31. Indonesia’s manufacturing to GDP

%Manufacturing to GDP
22.5

22.0 22.1
22.0
22.0
21.7
21.6
21.5
21.5 21.4
21.2
21.0
21.0
%

20.8
20.6
20.5
20.5
20.5 20.4

20.0

19.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: BPS, CEIC, Trimegah Research

Crude palm oil: protecting our resources by going downstream to be used for local usage

Indonesia and Malaysia together contribute a substantial 84% of the global production of Crude
Palm Oil (CPO), with Indonesia producing 46.7 million tons and Malaysia supplying 18.4 million
tons as of the fiscal year 2022. Despite the current oversupply challenges in the CPO industry, both
nations remain pivotal players. Recognizing the need to address this situation, the Indonesian
government has introduced strategic measures, notably the B35 and B40 programs, mandating the
blending of CPO with biodiesel. It should also be noted that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral
Resources (ESDM) is still finalizing preparations and studies for the B40 test this year. Indonesia
has consistently advanced its biodiesel initiatives, initially introducing B2.5 in 2009, followed by
enhancements to B20 in 2016, reaching B30 in 2023, and aiming for B35 in 2024. Furthermore,
there are talks on a B100 implementation. This strategic push emphasizes increasing domestic
consumption of CPO and decreasing dependence on imported fossil fuels. It is noteworthy that
Indonesia has been a net oil importer since 2003/04. The biodiesel program aligns with the broader
goal of achieving energy security and sustainability.

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 14


Figure 32. Global palm oil supply Figure 33. Domestic CPO consumption for biodiesel

Source: GAPKI, MPOB, Trimegah Research Source: APROBI, Trimegah Research

While these governmental interventions, along with replanting efforts and a moratorium on peat
lands, address immediate concerns related to deforestation, a comprehensive solution demands
broader strategies. To navigate the complexities of the CPO oversupply, there is a call for innovative
approaches, diversification, and differentiation within the industry. Additionally, a review and
potential relaxation of existing laws and regulations concerning CPO production and exports can
contribute to fostering a sustainable and resilient sector. As global demand for CPO continues
amidst projections of a burgeoning world population reaching 10 billion by 2050, a holistic and
forward-thinking approach is imperative to ensure the industry's long-term viability.

Geothermal: untapped clean energy

Being situated in the highly active seismic zone known as the “Ring of Fire”, Indonesia offers a rich
source of geothermal energy. Thanks to this geographical feature, Indonesia boasts over 300 sites
with an estimated geothermal energy resource and reserves of ~24GW. Currently, the installed
capacity relative to the total potential resource and reserves stands at a mere 8.1%. We believe
that the untapped energy potential presents a readily accessible opportunity for a clean and cheap
energy all across Indonesia especially to satisfy increasing electricity demand from new smelters
and potential mainstream adoption of EV.

Figure 34. Geothermal energy potential in Indonesia

Potential (Mwe) % of installed


Installed
No Area Resource Reserve Total capacity to
Capacity*
Speculative Hypothesis Possible Probable Proven total
1 Sumatra 2,276 1,557 3,735 1,041 1,070 9,679 562 5.8%
2 Java 1,265 1,190 3,414 418 1,820 8,107 1,254 15.5%
3 Bali 70 21 104 110 30 335 - 0.0%
4 Nusa Tenggara 190 148 892 121 12 1,363 13 0.9%
5 Kalimantan 151 18 13 - - 182 - 0.0%
6 Sulawesi 1,365 362 1,041 180 120 3,068 120 3.9%
7 Maluku 560 91 497 6 2 1,156 - 0.0%
8 Papua 75 - - - - 75 - 0.0%
Total 5,952 3,387 9,696 1,876 3,054 23,965 1,948 8.1%

Source: ESDM, Trimegah Research


*Status as of December 2018

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 15


Indonesia's Agricultural Renaissance: Nurturing Growth, Sustainability, and Self-
Sufficiency

One in every five Indonesian citizens within the working population, approximately 27 million
people, is engaged in the agricultural sector. Under Prabowo's advocacy for enhanced self-
sufficiency and reduced dependence on food imports, there is a concerted effort to expand irrigated
farmlands, ensuring consistent output. This strategic approach positions Indonesia favorably to
bolster production, particularly in staples like grain and modified cassava flour (MOCAF), serving
as a wheat substitute. This proactive stance shields the nation from external conditions impacting
food exporters, such as India's grain export interruptions due to El Niño and the Russo-Ukraine
conflict affecting wheat exports.

Indonesia's tropical climate, conducive to accelerated plant growth, coupled with the absence of a
winter season enabling three harvest periods annually, forms a robust foundation for agricultural
expansion. The focus on augmenting agricultural output revolves around both intensification and
extensification. The intensification agenda targets an increase in irrigated fields from 30% to 50%,
leveraging groundwater through advanced pumping systems to reduce reliance on unpredictable
weather for irrigation. Simultaneously, extensification endeavours aim to capitalize on the
vast potential of the 14mn ha of untapped land, ready and waiting for utilization (based
on Prabowo’s book: Strategi Transformasi Bangsa). This dual strategy underscores
Indonesia's commitment to fostering a resilient and self-reliant agricultural landscape.

… and on sea
On the maritime front, Indonesia's territorial waters encompass a vast expanse of 6.4mn km2,
encompassing key areas such as the Natuna Sea and the Malacca Strait. The latter, being one of
the world's busiest and strategically vital shipping routes, witnesses a remarkable 45% of global
shipping traffic. This underscores Indonesia's potential to emerge as a formidable exporter of goods
and commodities in the years ahead. Moreover, Indonesia's strategic geographic and geopolitical
positioning within Southeast Asia positions it as a central hub in shipping routes connecting Oceania
(Australia), South Asia (India), and East Asia (China, including Hong Kong and Taiwan, Japan,
South Korea). This geographical advantage augurs well for Indonesia's prospects as a vital link in
the international trade network.

Figure 35. Geographic and demographic of Indonesia compared to SEA countries

ASEAN Land Area (km2) Exclusive Economic Zone Population (est.


Countries (km2) 2023)

Brunei 5,765 10,090 449,000

Cambodia 181,035 62,515 16,800,000

East Timor 14,874 70,326 1,300,000

Indonesia 1,904,569 (1st in 6,159,032 (1st in SEA, 7th 278,000,000 (1st in


SEA, 14th globally) globally) SEA, 4th globally)

Laos 236,800 Data N/A 7,500,000

Malaysia 329,847 334,671 33,600,000

Myanmar 676,578 532,775 53,900,000

Philippines 300,000 1,590,780 116,000,000

Singapore 719 1,067 6,100,000

Thailand 513,120 299,397 72,100,000

Vietnam 331,210 417,663 98,300,000

Source: Seaaroundus.org, CEIC, Trimegah Research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 16


Indonesia boasts a wealth of marine resources, presenting a significant opportunity for sustainable
development. Abundant water resources position the country to harness a substantial 437
Gigawatts of energy through hydropower, a capacity nearly 5x that of the existing
operational electrical plants (based on Prabowo’s book: Strategi Transformasi Bangsa).
This abundance of water emerges as a compelling prospect for renewable energy, paving the way
for robust future growth. Facilitated by an intricate network of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and canals,
Indonesia is well-equipped to leverage its copious water reserves for the benefit of plantation,
agricultural, and electrical industries. This holistic approach not only supports the energy sector but
also contributes to the overall resilience and sustainability of Indonesia's diverse economic
landscape. The strategic utilization of water resources aligns with the nation's commitment to
advancing clean and renewable energy solutions for a greener and more sustainable future.

Marine commodities took a stage in Indonesia's strategic vision for future growth, with a keen eye
on downstream prospects. Notable among these commodities are shrimps/prawns, fish, crabs,
seaweed, and salt. The significance of this focus is underscored by the fact that aquaculture
in Southeast Asia contributed to 22% of global production in 2020, with an impressive
49.4% originating from Indonesia (source: ISEAS Report 2023). The scale of Indonesia's
aquaculture production in 2023 reached a substantial 50mn tonnes. The fishing industry stands as
a robust pillar supporting the well-being of Indonesian citizens, evident in the annual catch of
approximately 12mn tonnes in 2023. This volume not only meets the annual protein needs for
all Indonesian citizens, estimated at 6.3mn tonnes, but also generates a surplus exceeding 5mn
tonnes. Positioned strategically amidst the heaviest international shipping traffic, coupled with its
surplus of high-quality marine products, Indonesia is poised to emerge as a formidable exporter in
the field of aquaculture. This confluence of factors reflects Indonesia's strength in capitalizing on
its marine resources for economic prosperity and global trade.

Figure 35. Aqua culture production of APEC countries

Selected Countries Main Species Output of Selected Total Output


(2022) Species (tonnes)

China Carp, catfish, prawns, 28,706,821 70,483,539


shrimp, seaweed, tilapia

Indonesia Carp, catfish, prawns, 4,046,152 14,845,014


shrimp, seaweed, tilapia

Vietnam Bivalves, carp, catfish, 3,402,700 4,614,692


shrimp, tilapia

Chile Mussels, salmon, seaweed 1,079,515 1,505,486

Thailand Carp, catfish, shrimp, 764,379 962,467


tilapia

Philippines Carp, catfish, grouper, 344,859 2,322,831


mussels, prawn, tilapia

Malaysia Carp, catfish, prawn, tilapia 140,969 400,017

Australia Oyster, prawn, salmon 74,386 106,088

Source: APEC report, Trimegah Research

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 17


Harmony in Diversity: The Living Canvas of Indonesia's Human Capital Symphony

Indonesia stands as a demographic giant, hosting the world's fourth-largest population,


surpassing 280 million citizens. Projections suggest a steady average growth of 0.75%
per annum until 2045 (based on Prabowo book: Strategi Transformasi Bangsa), signalling
a healthy demographic trajectory, even as countries like Pakistan and Nigeria are anticipated to
surpass Indonesia's expected population of 324 million by 2045. The median age of 30 reflects an
optimal range for workforce productivity, indicating a population not experiencing rapid aging or
decline.

With a GINI coefficient aligning with the ASEAN average, Indonesia demonstrates comparable levels
of inequality to its regional peers, although there is room for improvement in reducing this figure.
While the country's unemployment rate slightly exceeds the global average of 5.1%, it is the highest
among ASEAN peers; however, it remains a figure that does not raise alarming concerns.
Indonesia's Human Development Index (HDI) aligns with the ASEAN average, signaling sustained
progress in health, knowledge, and living standards in comparison to its regional counterparts
(figure 36). These demographic and socio-economic indicators collectively reflect Indonesia's stable
and promising human resources landscape, poised for continued growth and development.

Figure 36. Human resource quality and income inequality measurements

Source: IMF: World Economic Outlook

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 18


Research Team
Willinoy Sitorus Head of Research, Strategy willinoy.sitorus@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9105
Fakhrul Fulvian Economics, Fixed Income fakhrul.fulvian@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9097
Adi Prabowo Banks, and Financial-related adi.prabowo@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9107
Heribertus Ariando Consumer, Media and Healthcare heribertus.ariando@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9106
Richardson Raymond Telco, Tower, and Digital Media richardson.raymond@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 6325
Kharel Devin Fielim Property, CPO, Cement, Toll, Small Caps kharel.devin@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9106
Alpinus Dewangga Commodities, Auto, and Small Caps alpinus.raditya@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 6322
Ignatius Samon Consumer, Healthcare and Media & Tech ignatius.samon@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9143
Sabrina Telco, Tower, and Digital Media sabrina@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9018
Jonathan Gunawan Economics and Fixed Income jonathan.gunawan@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9096
Alberto Jonas Kusuma Commodities, Auto, and Small Caps alberto.kusuma@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9103

Corporate Access
Nur Marini Corporate Access marini@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 6323

Institutional Sales Team


Beatrix Susanto Head of Institutional Sales beatrix.susanto@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9086
Henry Sidarta, CFTe Head of Institutional Dealing henry.sidarta@trimegah.com +62-21 3043 6309
Calvina Karmoko Equity Institutional Sales calvina.karmoko@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9080
Stefanus Indarto Equity Institutional Sales stefanus.indarto@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9080
Morgan Gindo Equity Institutional Sales morgan.gindo@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9076

Retail Sales Team


Billy Budiman Head of Retail Equity Sales billy.budiman@trimegah.com +62-21 3043 6310
Hasbie Sukaton Deputy Head of Retail Sales hasbie.sukaton@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 9088
Jakarta Area
Ignatius Candra Perwira Kelapa Gading, Jakarta ignatius.perwira@trimegah.com +62-21 8061 7270
Robby Jauhari BSD, Jakarta robby.jauhari@trimegah.com +62-21 5089 8959
Sumatera
Alfon Ariapati Medan, Sumatera Utara alfon.ariapati@trimegah.com +62-61 4100 0000
Eastern Indonesia
Carlo Ernest Frits Coutrier Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan carlo.coutrier@trimegah.com +62-411 3604 379
East Java
Pandu Wibisono Surabaya, Jawa Timur pandu.wibisono@trimegah.com +62-31 2973 18000
Central Java, Area
Aloysius Primasyah Semarang, Jawa Tengah primasyah.kristanto@trimegah.com +62-24 8600 2310
Laili Ma’muroh Solo, Jawa Tengah laili.mamuroh@trimegah.com +62-271 6775 590
West Java
Bhisma Herlambang Bandung, Jawa Barat bhisma.herlambang@trimegah.com +62-22 8602 6290
Renny Nurhayati Hidayat Cirebon, Jawa Barat renny.nurhayati@trimegah.com +62-231 8851 009

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 19


Disclaimer

This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated
companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or
considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced
independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT
Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or
misleading at the time of publication, PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk makes no representation as to
its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the
information of clients of PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk who are expected to make their own
investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk nor any
officer or employee of PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk accept any liability whatsoever for any direct
or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia
Tbk and/or persons connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or
the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk may
in future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

This report is not intended for media publication. The media is not allowed to quote this report in any article
whether in full or in parts without permission from PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk. For further
information, the media can contact the head of research of PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk.
This report was prepared, approved, published and distributed by PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk
located outside of the United States (a “non-US Group Company”). Neither the report nor any analyst who
prepared or approved the report is subject to U.S. legal requirements or the Financial Industry Regulatory
Authority, Inc. (“FINRA”) or other regulatory requirements pertaining to research reports or research
analysts. No non-US Group Company is registered as a broker-dealer under the Exchange Act or is a
member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. or any other U.S. self-regulatory organization.

INVESTMENT RATING RULE:


Buy : Share price is expected to exceed more than 10% over the next 12 months
Neutral : Share price is expected to trade within the range of 0%-10% over the next 12 months
Sell : Share price is expected to trade below 0% over the next 12 months
Not Rated : The company is not within Trimegah research coverage

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 20


Analysts Certification

The research analyst(s) of PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk. primarily responsible for the content of this research report,
in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the companies or relevant securities that the analyst(s) covered in this report:
(1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views on the company or relevant securities mentioned
herein; (2) no part of his or her remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, connected with his or her specific
recommendations or views expressed in the research report; and (3) the report does not contain any material non-public
information.

The disclosure column in the following table lists the important disclosures applicable to each company that has been rated
and/or recommended in this report:

Company Ticker Disclosure (as applicable)


- -

Trimegah Disclosure Data

Trimegah represents that:


1. Within the past year, it has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company, for which it received fees.
2. It had an investment banking relationship with this company in the last 12 months.
3. It received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the last 12 months.
4. It expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company/ies
in the next 3 months.
5. It beneficially owns 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company.
6. It makes a market in securities in respect of this company.
7. The analyst(s) or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her household) has
a financial interest position in securities issued by this company. The financial interest is in the common stock of the
subject company, unless otherwise noted.
8. The analyst (or a member of his/her household) is an officer, director, employee or advisory board member of this
company or has received compensation from the company.

PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk – www.trimegah.com 21

You might also like