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Report summary
Anticipating the possible continuation of volatility before the runoff election due to investors adopting wait and see
mode
In the short term, we observe a pattern in the movement of the JCI that tends to be similar to that of several previous election
years (2004, 2009, 2014, 2019), which is: it tends to weaken before the election and rallies after the election results are clear. We
believe this trend will continue this year, driven by an investor attitude that still tends towards a wait-and-see approach. Several
major players in the banking industry have also provided guidance for lower loan growth this year, due to debtors opting to
reduce aggressiveness in budgeting for capital expenditures and working capital at the start of the year.
Fundamental factors are expected to continue playing important roles in the long-term investment results
However, in the long term, we see the election period as not very relevant for basing investment decisions, because we observe
that every investment decision made at the beginning of an election year always yields a positive return until the beginning of
the next election year. Therefore, the main fundamental event that we believe will be a major driver of the IHSG this year is the
increasingly apparent global disinflation trend. This is even more evident in Indonesia, where inflation continues to decline
following a spike last year, after the government raised the price of subsidized fuel. Thus, we project that Bank Indonesia may
lower interest rates sooner than The Fed, which is expected to begin easing its monetary policy in June.
The Consumer Non-Cyclical, Financial, and Consumer Cyclical sectors consistently outperformed the JCI during the
previous monetary policy easing periods
After the global financial crisis (2008) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), there were two periods when Bank Indonesia eased
its monetary policy due to disinflation. We believe this situation is very similar to what may happen this year. During those two
periods, there were three sectors that successfully recorded a significantly and consistently positive return, namely the Consumer
Non-cyclical sector (UNVR ICBP MYOR AMRT), followed by the Financial sector (BBRI BBCA BMRI BBNI), and the Consumer Cyclical
sector (ACES MAPI). As a result, there are no changes yet to our stock selections, which focus on several sectors and companies
that we believe still possess solid balance sheets and operational performance outlooks to withstand potential headwinds
throughout the first semester of this year, including: Banking (BBCA, BBRI), Consumer Non-Cyclicals (HOKI, AMRT), Consumer
Cyclicals (ACES, MAPI), Telecommunications (TLKM, ISAT), and Industrial (ASII). We still maintain our fair value estimate for the JCI
this year at 8,100, which implies a 14x P/E ratio with an estimated 5-6% YoY EPS growth.
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Indonesia but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF THE REPORT.
Indonesia Strategy February 1, 2024
Investment Thesis
A key component of this economic endurance has been the labor market's robust health.
Characterized by low levels of layoffs and substantial wage increases, the labor market
has been a cornerstone supporting consumer spending, a critical driver of the economy.
In 2023, the U.S. economy added an impressive 2.7mn jobs, further bolstering consumer
confidence and expenditure.
Foreign investors recorded a net sell of ASII shares amounting to IDR2.4tr throughout
January 2024. KLBF, MDKA, BRPT, and INCO followed with net sells of IDR500bn,
IDR455bn, IDR210bn, and IDR198bn, respectively.
Meanwhile, BBCA and BMRI were the two stocks most purchased by foreign investors,
reaching IDR2.7tr and IDR1.9tr, respectively. This was followed by TLKM, BBRI, and BRIS,
with net buys of IDR910bn, IDR845bn, and IDR491bn, respectively.
Therefore, overall, foreign investors recorded a net buy position of IDR8.3tr throughout
January 2024. We view this as a continuation of the positive sentiment following the
Federal Reserve's more dovish statements at the end of 2023. The 0.9% decline in the JCI
(Jakarta Composite Index) in January is still in line with our previous expectations, where
geopolitical risks, domestic political uncertainties, and the potential normalization of
returns on some stocks that experienced abnormal returns in 2023, could potentially
hinder JCI movements at the start of this year.
Going forward, we still see the possibility that blue-chip stocks, particularly those from
the banking, telecommunications, consumer, and industrial sectors with more proven
financial and operational performance, can support the stock index movements.
Therefore, although there is still potential pressure, it is unlikely to cause a significant
drop in the stock index.
We believe this trend will continue this year, driven by an investor attitude that still tends
towards a wait-and-see approach. Several major players in the banking industry have
also provided guidance for lower loan growth this year, due to debtors opting to reduce
aggressiveness in budgeting for capital expenditures and working capital at the start of
the year.
BBCA and BMRI have set loan growth targets at 8-10% and 13-15% YoY, respectively, for
this year. These targets are lower than last year's achievements, which were recorded at
14% and 16%, respectively.
However, BBRI and BBNI appear more optimistic in maintaining and increasing their
credit growth this year, with guidance set at 11-12% and 9-11%, respectively, up from
last year's achievements of 11% and 8%, respectively.
We see that this is more due to growth in the financial and operational performance of
companies, which is also supported by improvements in the macroeconomic conditions
of Indonesia and the macro-industrial conditions of each business sector.
Therefore, looking forward, we still see that fundamental factors will continue to play a
major role in influencing the movement of the JCI.
The main fundamental event that we believe will be a major driver of the IHSG this year
is the increasingly apparent global disinflation trend. This is even more evident in
Indonesia, where inflation continues to decline following a spike last year, after the
government raised the price of subsidized fuel. Therefore, we project that Bank
Indonesia may lower interest rates sooner than The Fed, which is expected to begin
easing its monetary policy in June.
During those two periods, there were three sectors that successfully recorded a
significantly and consistently positive return, namely the Consumer Non-cyclical sector
(UNVR ICBP MYOR AMRT), followed by the Financial sector (BBRI BBCA BMRI BBNI), and
the Consumer Cyclical sector (ACES MAPI). Meanwhile, the Property sector (BSDE CTRA
SMRA), which has long been considered interest-sensitive, managed to record a quite
fantastic return in only one of the two periods, while in the other period it actually
recorded a negative return. Thus, it was somewhat inconsistent. However, we noticed
that PWON is the only stock among other large-cap property stocks that managed to
consistently record significantly positive results during those two periods.
The Tobacco and Poultry sectors were actually also able to outperform the JCI quite
consistently overall in those two periods. However, we observed that the returns from
GGRM and CPIN were somewhat less consistent compared to HMSP and JPFA.
Recently, several leaders of the political parties supporting these two candidates have
hinted to the media about the possibility of consolidating during the runoff election.
Exhibits
Figure 1. JCI movement during the 2019 election Figure 2. JCI movement during the 2014 election
6,600 Simultaneous Elections 5,400 Increase in subsidized
(Apr-2019) Presidential Election fuel price
6,500 5,200 (Jul-2014) (Nov-2014)
Inauguration of Announcement of Jokowi
Jokowi-Maruf as a candidate
6,400 5,000
(Oct-2019) (Mar-2014)
Election Inauguration of Jokowi-JK
6,300 Campaign US-China 4,800 (Oct-2014)
Trade War
6,200 (May-2019) General Election
Announcement of 4,600
(Apr-2014)
6,100
Election Winners
Dispute of (Jun-2019) 4,400
5,900
4,000
5,800
Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 3. JCI movement during the 2009 election Figure 4. JCI movement during the 2004 election
3,000 1,300
2,800
1,200
Presidential Election
2,600 Global Financial Crisis (Jul-2008)
2,400 1,100
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 5. The long-term investment return on the JCI made at the beginning of every
election year
Table 2. Big cap stocks performances vs. BI Rate and JCI (part 1) (IDR)
2011 2013 Return (%) 2015 2018 Return (%)
BI Rate (%) 6.75 5.75 7.75 4.25
JCI 3,549 5,069 42.8 5,289 6,597 24.7
BBRI 1,140 1,735 52.2 2,280 3,690 61.8
BBCA 1,540 2,070 34.4 2,680 4,640 73.1
BMRI 1,575 2,430 54.3 2,750 4,150 50.9
BBNI 1,865 2,440 30.8 3,130 4,860 55.3
Average Return of IDXFINANCE Big Caps 42.9 60.3
UNVR 3,300 6,100 84.8 7,175 10,775 50.2
ICBP 2,460 6,550 166.3 7,250 8,975 23.8
MYOR 438 1,245 184.2 970 2,410 148.5
AMRT 370 710 91.9 476 595 25.0
Average Return of IDXNONCYC Big Caps 131.8 61.9
ACES 330 950 187.9 740 1,330 79.7
MAPI 430 890 107.0 590 760 28.8
Average Return of IDXCYC Big Caps 147.4 54.3
GGRM 52,500 53,500 1.9 57,800 79,750 38.0
HMSP 1,195 3,470 190.4 2,670 4,820 80.5
Average Return of IDX Tobacco Big Caps 96.1 59.3
CPIN 2,400 4,950 106.3 3,960 3,440 -13.1
JPFA 865 1,980 128.9 298 1,620 443.6
Average Return of IDX Poultry Big Caps 117.6 215.2
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Table 3. Big cap stocks performances vs. BI Rate and JCI (part 2) (IDR)
2011 2013 Return (%) 2015 2018 Return (%)
BI Rate (%) 6.75 5.75 7.75 4.25
JCI 3,549 5,069 42.8 5,289 6,597 24.7
SMGR 8,275 17,950 116.9 14,525 11,100 -23.6
INTP 14,000 23,750 69.6 23,000 21,975 -4.5
Average Return of IDX Cement Big Caps 93.3 -14.0
BSDE 870 2,200 152.9 2,020 1,935 -4.2
SMRA 484 1,355 180.0 1,600 1,075 -32.8
CTRA 500 1,515 203.0 1,415 1,290 -8.8
PWON 195 420 115.4 500 675 35.0
Average Return of IDXPROP Big Caps 162.8 -2.7
TLKM 1,520 2,210 45.4 2,830 4,000 41.3
ISAT 5,250 5,200 -1.0 4,100 5,600 36.6
EXCL 4,910 4,930 0.4 4,730 2,950 -37.6
TOWR 204 510 150.0 780 715 -8.3
TBIG 400 1,200 200.0 1,900 1,125 -40.8
Average Return of IDX Telco Big Caps 79.0 -1.8
ASII 6,375 7,050 10.6 7,850 7,300 -7.0
JSMR 3,970 6,675 68.1 7,175 5,350 -25.4
Average Return of IDX Other Big Caps 39.4 -16.2
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 7. M2 to GDP ratio (%) Figure 8. Annual car sales per 100 population
200 4.5
180
4.0
160
140 3.5
120 3.0
100
2.5
80
60 2.0
40 1.5
20
1.0
-
0.5
0.0
Japan South Korea Malaysia Thailand Indonesia
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research, Mark Lines data
Figure 9. Cement consumption per capita Figure 10. Fixed broadband penetration rate (%)
700 60
600
50
500
40
400
300
30
200 20
100
10
-
-
Thailand Malaysia The Philippines Indonesia
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research, AISI Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research, Kearney
Figure 11. Indonesia’s inflation and policy rate Figure 12. Bank Indonesia’s projection of GDP growth
(%)
(%, YoY) 5.4 5.3
9 Headline Inflation Core inflation 5.2 4.8-5.6
8 5.2 4.7-5.5
Upper bound inflation target Lower bound inflation target
5.0
7
BI7DRR 5.0 4.9 4.5-5.3
6
5 4.8
4 4.6
3
2 4.4
1 4.2
0
5/17 1/18 9/18 5/19 1/20 9/20 5/21 1/22 9/22 5/23 1/24 4.0
2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 2023* 2024* 2025*
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 13. US inflation and policy rate Figure 14. US monthly employment situation
Headline inflation Core PCE inflation (%) Unemployment rate (L) (%, YoY)
(%, YoY)
Upper inflation target FFR 6.0 7
10 5.9 Average hourly earnings growth (R)
5.5 6
9
5
8 5.0 4.7
5
7 4.1
4.5
6 4
3.9
4.0 3.7
5
3.4 3
4 3.5
3 2
3.0
2
2.5 1
1
0 2.0 0
12/19 6/20 12/20 6/21 12/21 6/22 12/22 6/23 12/23 12/21 3/22 6/22 9/22 12/22 3/23 6/23 9/23 12/23
Source: BLS, BEA, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: BLS, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 15. Indonesia’s accumulated trade balance (2018 – Figure 16. Indonesia’s quarterly current account balance to
2023) GDP ratio
(USDbn) 2
Non-oil and gas trade balance
100 Trade balance 1
80
0
60
-1
40
-2
20
-3
0
-20 -4
-40 -5
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17 3Q18 3Q19 3Q20 3Q21 3Q22 3Q23
Source: Statistics Indonesia, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
2 -2
-12
0 -3 4Q14 1Q16 2Q17 3Q18 4Q19 1Q21 2Q22 3Q23
2Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
80
60
40
20
0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
-20
-40
-60
Our portfolio's NAV managed to outperform the JCI by 1.3%, as it rose by 0.4% compared
to the JCI's decline of 0.9%. This was not only supported by blue-chip stocks, as we had
previously anticipated, but also due to the normalization of returns on some stocks in
the JCI that experienced abnormal returns last year.
Appendix 1
Disclaimers
This report was prepared by MASID, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange; on behalf of
MASID and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good
faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and MASID (including but not limited to the Analyst,
respective employees who owns the expertise) makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy,
completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Indonesia language or as to any
information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. In case of an English translation
of a report prepared in the Indonesia language, the original Indonesian language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report.
The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common
practices, laws, and accounting principles, and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws or regulations or subject MASID or any
of its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof.
This report is for general information purposes only and is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any
securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person, and such person shall not be treated as a client of
MASID by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual
clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the
date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may
depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not
guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Please note that the graphs, charts, formulae, or other devices set out or referred to in this document
cannot, in and of itself, be used to determine in deciding which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell a securities. MASID, its affiliates, and their
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