Indonesia Strategy September 29, 2023

Strategy for the potential window dressing in 4Q23

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia

Robertus Hardy robertus.hardy@miraeasset.co.id Rut Yesika Simak rut.simak@miraeasset.co.id

4Q23 Outlook High probability of window dressing

 After the pandemic year, the JCI return in the 4Q period were +4.7% and -2.7% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
However, in the 5-year observation period before the pandemic, we noted 4 periods where JCI had positive returns
compared to only 1 period with negative returns. The average return rate of JCI in the 4th quarter for the years 2015-
2019 was 4.2%.
 Looking ahead to 4Q23, despite potential pressure due to the expected hawkish monetary policy direction of The Fed,
we see opportunities for JCI to perform better, considering the possibility of The Fed reaching the peak of its interest
rate hikes by the end of this year.
 Therefore, we still maintain a positive outlook for JCI's potential to deliver better performance in 4Q23, however with
a slightly lowered target of 7,400 and rolling forward our previous target of 7,600 for the 1Q24 period. This figure
implies a 15.6x – 15.8x forward P/E ratio assuming 5-7% YoY EPS growth.

Recent update on Strong fiscal balance to support the financial market

macro-economic  The positive movement of JCI is supported by stocks that are in the category of Basic Materials, especially
and equity market Petrochemical and Copper Mining, such as TPIA and AMMN, regardless of the recent surge of crude oil prices and an
dynamic ongoing decline of copper prices. Stocks that are related to renewable energy (PGEO BRPT) also performed very well.
IDX Carbon has officially commenced operations with PGEO's Lahendong Geothermal Power Plant (PLTP) as the first
carbon unit seller at an average price equivalent to USD4.5/ton of carbon dioxide (IDR 69,600).
 Indonesia's fiscal balance remains in surplus, hitting IDR147.2tr in the first eight months of 2023, or equivalent to
0.7% of GDP. This marks an improvement compared to the same period last year when the surplus stood at
IDR107.9tr, or 0.6% of GDP. The surplus in 8M23 can be attributed to the government's revenue of IDR1,821.9tr,
accounting for 74.0% of the FY23 target and a YoY growth of 3.2%. Concurrently, government expenditure reached
IDR1,674.7tr (54.7% of FY23 target), comprising IDR1,170.8tr in central government spending and IDR503.9tr in
regional transfers.

Several sectors that Sector selection and stock picks for potential window dressing in 4Q23
could potentially  Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of this year, we believe there is a significant probability of window dressing
perform well during occurring. Therefore, our latest stock picks are based on several sectors that we expect to perform well during this
the ancipated period: Financial (BMRI, BBRI), which has demonstrated strong performance amid a higher interest rate
window dressing environment. Consumer Cyclicals (ACES), particularly in retail, due to recent government regulations aimed at
limiting the expansion of the social commerce business model. Consumer Non-cyclicals (CPIN), especially in poultry,
in light of the ongoing decline in soybean meal prices and the continuation of the culling program to reduce
oversupply. Infrastructure (EXCL), particularly in telecommunications, besides the anticipated robust growth in the
number of fixed broadband subscribers, we favor this sector due to the potential M&A between EXCL and FREN,
which could further consolidate the industry. Energy (AKRA, HRUM), following AKRA's aggressive expansion into the
industrial estate business and the expected higher contribution of the nickel business to HRUM's consolidated figures.
Industrials (UNTR), due to UNTR's potential interim dividend in October following robust performances through
1H23. Basic Materials (INTP), especially in cement, due to the potential acceleration of government spending to
complete several ongoing infrastructure projects, which could have a positive spillover effect on the property
development outlook in the surrounding areas. Healthcare (PRDA), aside from expecting increased utilization of its
testing and treatment capacity and further collaboration and synergy with BPJS programs, we favor PRDA due to its
robust yet cautious and measurable expansion.

Table 1. Mirae Asset’s top picks

Mkt cap EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Ticker Company name (IDRbn) 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F
ACES Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PT 12,948 6.5 11.5 10.9 9.3 18.3 16.4 2.1 1.9 11.7 12.1
AKRA AKR Corporindo Tbk PT 30,512 9.1 7.3 8.4 8.3 11.4 10.7 2.5 2.3 22.0 20.9
BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT 791,896 16.7 11.3 N/A N/A 13.3 11.9 2.4 2.3 19.0 19.8
BMRI Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT 560,000 20.2 10.6 N/A N/A 11.3 10.2 2.2 2.0 20.1 20.3
CPIN Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk PT 88,139 2.6 37.5 17.3 14.1 29.3 21.3 3.1 2.8 11.4 14.0
EXCL XL Axiata Tbk PT 30,983 -3.6 24.4 4.7 4.4 23.3 18.8 1.1 1.0 5.1 6.2
HRUM Harum Energy Tbk PT 25,279 -12.1 -20.0 4.5 5.7 6.0 7.5 1.3 1.1 28.4 19.1
INTP Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT 37,088 9.2 14.0 9.5 8.6 17.4 15.3 1.8 1.7 10.0 11.0
PRDA Prodia Widyahusada Tbk PT 6,281 5.6 16.1 9.3 8.1 16.0 13.8 2.6 2.4 15.9 17.5
UNTR United Tractors Tbk PT 105,563 -8.3 -12.8 2.6 2.9 5.4 6.2 1.3 1.2 23.3 19.8
Note: Forward projections are based on consensus
Source: Company data, IDX, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

C O N T E N T S

4Q23 Outlook: High probability of window dressing 3

Our latest sector selection and stock picks for potential window dressing in 4Q23 4

Financial (Banking) Sector: BMRI BBRI 5

Consumer Cyclicals (Retail) Sector: ACES 6

Energy Sector: AKRA 7

Energy Sector: HRUM 8

Infrastructure (Telecommunication) Sector: EXCL 9

Industrial Sector: UNTR 10

Basic Materials (Cement) Sector: INTP 11

Consumer Non-Cyclicals (Poultry) Sector: CPIN 12

Healthcare Sector: PRDA 13

Our previous stock picks performances 14

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 2

September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

4Q23 Outlook: High probability of window

dressing

After the pandemic year, the JCI return in the 4Q period were +4.7% and -2.7% in 2021 and
2022, respectively. However, in the 5-year observation period before the pandemic, we noted
4 periods where JCI had positive returns compared to only 1 period with negative returns. The
average return rate of JCI in the 4th quarter for the years 2015-2019 was 4.2%. Looking ahead
to 4Q23, despite potential pressure due to the expected hawkish monetary policy direction of
The Fed, we see opportunities for JCI to perform better, considering the possibility of The Fed
reaching the peak of its interest rate hikes by the end of this year. Therefore, we still maintain
a positive outlook for JCI's potential to deliver better performance in 4Q23, however with a
slightly lowered target of 7,400 and rolling forward our previous target of 7,600 for the 1Q24
period. This figure implies a 15.6x – 15.8x forward P/E ratio assuming 5-7% YoY EPS growth.

Figure 1. JCI’s return in the 4Q tend to be positive in the past 5 Figure 2. JCI’s MA 100 & 200 potential golden cross
years before the pandemic

JCI 1,2,3 Q return (%) JCI 4Q return (%) (pts) JCI MA200 MA100
30
7,400

20
7,200
10
7,000
0

6,800
-10

-20 6,600

-30
6,400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023*
9/22 12/22 3/23 6/23 9/23

Note: As of September 27, 2023

*
Source: Market data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Market data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 3. JCI’s return in the 4Q tend to be positive in the past 5 years before the 2008 global financial crisis

JCI 1,2,3 Q return (%) JCI 4Q return (%)

100

80

60

40

20

-20

-40

-60
2000

2007

2014

2020
1996
1997
1998
1999

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

2021
2022
2023*

Source: Market data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

Our latest sector selection and stock picks for

potential window dressing in 4Q23

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of this year, we believe there is a significant probability
of window dressing occurring. Therefore, our latest stock picks are based on several sectors
that we expect to perform well during this period:

1) Financial (BMRI, BBRI), which has demonstrated strong performance amid a higher
interest rate environment.

2) Consumer Cyclicals (ACES), particularly in retail, due to recent government

regulations aimed at limiting the expansion of the social commerce business model.

3) Consumer Non-cyclicals (CPIN), especially in poultry, in light of the ongoing decline

in soybean meal prices and the continuation of the culling program to reduce
oversupply.

4) Infrastructure (EXCL), particularly in telecommunications. Besides the anticipated

robust growth in the number of fixed broadband subscribers, we favor this sector
due to the potential M&A between EXCL and FREN, which could further consolidate
the industry.

5) Energy (AKRA, HRUM), following AKRA's aggressive expansion into the industrial
estate business and the expected higher contribution of the nickel business to
HRUM's consolidated figures.

6) Industrials (UNTR), due to UNTR's potential interim dividend yield in October

following robust performances through 1H23.

7) Basic Materials (INTP), especially in cement, due to the potential acceleration of

government spending to complete several ongoing infrastructure projects, which
could have a positive spillover effect on the property development outlook in the
surrounding areas.

8) Healthcare (PRDA), aside from expecting increased utilization of its testing and
treatment capacity and further collaboration and synergy with BPJS programs, we
favor PRDA due to its robust yet cautious and measurable expansion.

Table 2. Mirae Asset’s top picks

Mkt cap EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Ticker Company name (IDRbn) 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F
ACES Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PT 12,948 6.5 11.5 10.9 9.3 18.3 16.4 2.1 1.9 11.7 12.1
AKRA AKR Corporindo Tbk PT 30,512 9.1 7.3 8.4 8.3 11.4 10.7 2.5 2.3 22.0 20.9
BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT 791,896 16.7 11.3 N/A N/A 13.3 11.9 2.4 2.3 19.0 19.8
BMRI Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT 560,000 20.2 10.6 N/A N/A 11.3 10.2 2.2 2.0 20.1 20.3
CPIN Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk PT 88,139 2.6 37.5 17.3 14.1 29.3 21.3 3.1 2.8 11.4 14.0
EXCL XL Axiata Tbk PT 30,983 -3.6 24.4 4.7 4.4 23.3 18.8 1.1 1.0 5.1 6.2
HRUM Harum Energy Tbk PT 25,279 -12.1 -20.0 4.5 5.7 6.0 7.5 1.3 1.1 28.4 19.1
INTP Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT 37,088 9.2 14.0 9.5 8.6 17.4 15.3 1.8 1.7 10.0 11.0
PRDA Prodia Widyahusada Tbk PT 6,281 5.6 16.1 9.3 8.1 16.0 13.8 2.6 2.4 15.9 17.5
UNTR United Tractors Tbk PT 105,563 -8.3 -12.8 2.6 2.9 5.4 6.2 1.3 1.2 23.3 19.8
Note: Forward projections are based on consensus
Source: Company data, IDX, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

Financial (Banking) Sector: BMRI BBRI

We observe that banking stocks, including PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) and PT Bank Rakyat
Indonesia Tbk (BBRI), have performed positively in the rising interest rate environment.
Therefore, we have decided to include both of these stocks in our recommendation, given the
possibility of The Fed raising its benchmark interest rate once again at the end of the year,
which could provide an opportunity for Bank Indonesia to maintain high-interest rates for a
longer period.

Despite that Indonesia's inflation has moderated from its peak in September, the recent
increase in food prices, especially rice, due to the dry season (El Nino), is expected to make it
challenging for the government to control inflation in the future. When combined with the 5%
depreciation of the Rupiah since the beginning of May, we believe it will be quite difficult for
Bank Indonesia to lower its interest rates in the near term.

• BMRI's net profit in 8M23 surged by 27.5% YoY to IDR31.5tr following a 13.6% YoY
growth in net interest income to IDR47.6tr. We see BMRI as having an attractive
valuation with a potential dividend yield of 5.6%, assuming a 60% payout ratio.

• BBRI's net profit in 8M23 still managed to grow by 3.7% YoY to IDR34.8tr due to a
significant slump of provision expenses despite a slight decrease in its net interest
income to IDR71.6tr following a significant rise in interest expenses. Nevertheless,
we consider the company's valuation to be quite attractive with a potential dividend
yield of 6.7%, assuming an 85% payout ratio.

Table 3. Recent financial performances of BMRI & BBRI (IDRbn)

(IDRbn) BMRI YoY (%) BBRI YoY (%)
8M22 8M23 8M22 8M23
Interest income 52,552 64,280 22.3 85,647 95,249 11.2
Interest expenses 10,622 16,630 56.6 13,433 23,685 76.3
Net interest income 41,930 47,650 13.6 72,213 71,564 -0.9
Provision expenses (reversal) 7,041 5,732 -18.6 19,467 17,766 -8.7
Net profit 24,708 31,512 27.5 33,569 34,827 3.7
Total loan 887,331 996,868 12.3 1,004,248 1,123,641 11.9
Total deposits 1,036,654 1,137,928 9.8 1,126,550 1,265,329 12.3
LDR (%) 85.6 87.6 89.1 88.8
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 4. BMRI BBRI share price performances & benchmark interest rate
(IDR/share) BBRI (L) BMRI (L) Indonesia interest rate (R) (%)
6,400 6.5

6.0

5,400
5.5

5.0
4,400
4.5

4.0
3,400

3.5

2,400 3.0
1/22 5/22 9/22 1/23 5/23 9/23

Source: Market data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

Consumer Cyclicals (Retail) Sector: ACES

SSSG of PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk (ACES) decreased slightly to 10.3% in August 2023
from the 14.8% recorded in July when the company held its 'Boom Sale' promotion.
Cumulatively, in 8M23, ACES' SSSG of 7% YoY is well above its previous guidance of 5%. The
ex-Java region managed to grow higher, reaching 13% in August 2023 and 11% in the 8M23
period, compared to Jakarta and the Java (ex-Jakarta) region, which only saw growth rates of
6% and 4%, respectively, in the 8M23 period. Indicative sales of IDR609bn in August 2023 are
16% higher YoY, despite being 7% lower MoM. Cumulatively, in 8M23, indicative sales of
IDR4,841bn are 11% higher YoY. This is in line with our previous forecast, with a run rate of
65%.

Going forward, despite the end of the 'Boom Sale' period, which encompassed approximately
500 SKUs, we maintain a positive outlook for the company due to several extensive campaigns
such as 'Weekend Deals,' 'Flash Sales,' 'Special Online Offers,' and 'Cashbacks’ which have the
potential to sustain the company's growth momentum going forward.

Historically, we see that 4Q sales have consistently been the highest throughout the year in
the past five years, accounting for approximately 26-29% of the FY total achievements.
Therefore, we expect ACES' 'End of Year Discount' campaign to contribute significantly to its
revenue growth this year. Additionally, in September 2023, ACES introduced the 'Weekend
Deals' program, offering up to a 65% discount on specially selected items every week.

Recent financial performances

Despite a 13.5% QoQ increase in revenue to IDR1,933bn, ACES' 2Q23 net profit of IDR144bn
is 9.0% lower QoQ due to a 20.9% increase in operating expenses, primarily driven by a
significant rise in salary and bonus expenses, as well as freight-out costs following the
recovery of the supply chain from China after reopening. However, 2Q23 revenue and net
profit are still 15.0% and 62.1% higher YoY, respectively, due to a low base performance last
year. Cumulatively in 1H23, net profit surged 24.8% YoY to IDR302bn following a 9.9% YoY
increase in revenue to IDR3,635bn. ACES' 1H23 sales revenue is considered in line with our
estimate, with a run rate of 49.1% (from our previous forecast).

In terms of product categories, Home Improvement remains the largest contributor at 54%,
followed by Lifestyle and Toys at 40% and 7%, respectively. We see that the recent
government restriction on the social commerce business model can be beneficial for brick-
and-mortar retailers like ACES, considering that Home Improvement products are among the
most traded categories on TikTok Shop.

Our TP of IDR950 is equivalent to 0.9x the standard deviation from its average over the past
5 years.

Figure 5. Baim Wong (a celebrity with 13.4mn followers)

Figure 6. ACES’ P/E band
selling pan & other kitchenwares on TikTok

P/E +1 SD -1 SD +2 SD -2 SD Mean
(x)

50

40

30

20

10

0
9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23

Source: Social media, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

Energy Sector: AKRA

Profit before tax contribution from the Industrial Estate segment surged to 15% of AKRA's
consolidated figure in 1H23 (before elimination), up from just 2.7% in 1H22. Looking ahead to
the 2023F period, we project that this segment's contribution can further increase, reaching
26.9%. Therefore, if paired with the anticipated higher revenue from its core business of fuel
distribution following the recent surge of oil price, we are still maintaining a BUY
recommendation for AKRA, with a TP of IDR1,780, implying 9.5/8.6x and 6.9/6.2x of its 23F/24F
P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios, respectively. Despite being higher compared to the median P/E and
EV/EBITDA of IDXENERGY companies, which are 7.3x and 4.3x respectively, AKRA deserves a
higher valuation, in our view. This is due to its superior ROE of 25.1% (in 23F) compared to the
IDXENERGY median of only 15%.

On August 31, 2023, AKRA announced that Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co. (Hebang) has
signed a Conditional Sales and Purchase Agreement (CSPA) with PT Berkah Kawasan Manyar
Sejahtera (BKMS, 60% owned by AKRA) for the purchase of a 67ha land to establish a
Petrochemical plant in the Java Integrated Industrial and Port Estate Special Economic Zone
(JIIPE-SEZ), located in Gresik (East Java). The plant will have an annual capacity of 600,000 tons
of Sodium Carbonate and Ammonium Chloride, as well as 200,000 tons of Glyphosate.
Ammonium Chloride is an agricultural fertilizer that provides nitrogen for plant growth and
is particularly suitable for palm trees. Glyphosate is the most widely used herbicide in the
world. Previously, on March 30, 2023, AKRA sold 19.6ha of land in JIIPE to PT Hailiang Nova
Material (Hailiang) to establish a Copper Foil Factory. In late 3Q23 or 4Q23, AKRA is expected
to complete the sale of 10ha of land to one of the companies from America. Therefore, taking
into account the sales to Hebang (67ha) and Hailiang (19.6ha), the company's marketing sales
are projected to reach 96.6ha for the entire year, surpassing its initial target set at 70 – 75ha
for the year.

Figure 7. JIIPE’s Industrial Estate (Red), Port (Blue) and Figure 8. The recent surge of Brent crude oil prices with
Housing (Green) areas master plan MA100 & 200 potential golden cross
(USD/barrels) Brent Crude Oil MA200 MA100
120

110

100

90

80

70

60
9/22 12/22 3/23 6/23 9/23

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Tradingview, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 9. AKRA’s profit before tax contribution Figure 10. AKRA’s P/E band
Core Business Industrial Estate
(x) P/E +1 SD -1 SD +2 SD -2 SD Mean
100% 2.7%
90% 15.0% 21.1% 25

80% 26.9%
70% 20
60%
50% 97.3%
15
40% 85.0%
78.9%
30% 73.1%
10
20%
10%
0% 5
1H22 1H23 2023PF 2023CF 9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

Energy Sector: HRUM

Coal production of PT Harum Energy Tbk (HRUM) in 2Q23 remained robust at 1.8mn tons
(+5.9% QoQ, 38.5% YoY), bringing the 1H23 total coal production to 3.5mn tons (+52.2% YoY).
The stripping ratio rose to 9.8x from 8.5x in the previous quarter, which we consider
reasonable given the lower cash cost and its potential to favor the company’s earnings amid
normalizing commodity prices. Regarding nickel operations, IMI's NPI production in 2Q23
stood at 45k tons (+14.0% QoQ), bringing the 1H23 NPI production to 89k tons (+26.3% YoY).
Furthermore, the company's second smelter at WMI has reached ~90% civil construction
progress in June 2023. Commercial production is expected to commence in stages starting
from 4Q23. WMI will have four lines of RKEF smelter with a production capacity of up to 56k
tons of Ni metal annually in the form of NPI and high-grade nickel matte.

HRUM’s 2Q23 revenue stood at USD198mn (-32.9% QoQ; -12.2% YoY), translating into a total
1H23 revenue of USD 492mn (+30.4% YoY), above our/consensus' estimate, with a run rate of
50.8%/67.3%. Note that 1Q23 revenue was significantly higher YoY due to deferred sales from
4Q22 to 1Q22. Coal sales volume in 2Q23 remained strong at 1.8mn tons, totaling 3.6mn tons
in 1H23 (+71.8% YoY). However, the 2Q23 ASP dropped by 31.8% QoQ to USD109.8/ton,
bringing the 1H23 ASP to approximately USD 136 (-23.4% YoY). On a positive note, cash costs
reduced strongly in 2Q23 to ~USD 65/ton (-15.1% QoQ), supported by lower transportation
costs and a moderate decrease in the royalty rate. Overall, HRUM's robust 1H23 sales volume
supported the downslide of ASP, resulting in a slight net profit growth of 3.2% YoY to USD
151mn, above our/consensus estimate with a 48%/68% run rate. As of 2Q23, IMI and NIC
contributed ~USD 5.6mn (-53.2% QoQ), c. 12% to HRUM’s net profit. Notably, IMI's 2Q23 net
profit fell to USD 8.3mn (-53.6% QoQ), mainly due to the decrease in global nickel prices during
2Q23.

Going forward, in addition to expecting dry weather (El-Nino) to further support its coal
production level, we favor the company because of its aggressive expansion into the nickel
business. Recently, the company has increased its dominance in PT Harum Nickel Industry
and PT Infei Metal Industry. Therefore, we expect a greater contribution from both
subsidiaries to HRUM's consolidated figures going forward. Our target price of IDR 2,150
implies a 6.2x FY23F P/E ratio.

Table 4. Results run rate (USDmn)

1H23 FY23F FY23F (a)/(b) (a)/(c) 5-years average Comment
Actual (a) MASI (b) Consensus (c) (%) (%) run rate (%) (MASI/ Consensus)
Revenue 492 969 731 50.8 67.3 45.1 Above/Above
EBITDA 238 400 378 59.5 63.0 50.3 Above/Above
Operating profit 211 394 347 53.5 60.7 52.0 In-line/Above
Net profit 151 311 221 48.4 68.3 40.9 Above/Above
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 11. Production and sales volume trajectory Figure 12. HRUM’s P/E Band
(USDmn) Sales volume Production volume
P/E +1 SD -1 SD +2 SD -2 SD Mean
8 (x)
120
7
100
6
80
5
60
4 40
3 20

2 0
-20
1
-40
0 9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23
2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

Infrastructure (Telecommunication) Sector: EXCL

We continue to favor the Telecommunication sector, especially PT XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL),

considering its robust growth in fixed broadband subscribers. The number of XL Home
subscribers soared 51% YoY to 154,000 (vs. IndiHome growth of 7.2% to 9.5mn). This trend
aligns with our previous thesis that the convergence between Fixed Broadband and Mobile
services (FMC) could be the primary growth driver for the industry moving forward
considering that the Mobile Internet market is already considered as saturated with 125 of
cellular users per every 100 people population.

If the merger between EXCL and FREN were to materialize, it is expected to create a new entity
with the third-largest mobile internet subscriber base. Therefore, it has the potential to create
sustainable synergy among the ecosystems built by Axiata with EXCL, LINK, and PT Hipernet
Indodata within it, with the financial strength of the Sinarmas Group, which is the controlling
shareholder of FREN.

Table 5. Number of cellular users (Mn)

Mobile Network Operators 1H22 1H23 Chg YoY (%)
Telkomsel (a subsidiary of TLKM) 169.7 153.3 -9.7
Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison Tbk (ISAT) 96.2 100.0 4.0
XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL) 57.2 58.0 1.4
Smartfren Tbk (FREN) 32.5 35.5 9.2
TOTAL 355.6 346.8 -2.5
Country population 275.4 277.8 0.9
Cellular users per 100 people (Users) 129.1 124.8 -3.3
Sources: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Prepaid fixed broadband: case study in the Philippines

'Surf2Sawa' (S2S) is a prepaid fixed broadband product by Converge ICT Solutions Inc., a listed
company in the Philippines (ticker code CNVRG). It is a product offering that has enabled the
company to expand its reach to a larger target market. S2S has successfully added
approximately ~25,000 new subscribers in 2Q23 to reach a total of ~54,000. The company
claims that the payback period is less than a year due to its lower cost model, despite having
an ARPU value of only IDR121k (PHP446) vs. IDR116k (PHP428) in 1Q23 after revenue share
with distributors, compared to IndiHome's IDR264k. Considering the rapid penetration into a
new segment of users, we believe that this strategy could be a game-changer if implemented
by Indonesian fixed broadband players, such as IndiHome, XLHome, and Indosat HiFi,
respectively.

Figure 13. ‘Surf2Sawa’ subscribers & ARPU (PH Peso) Figure 14. EXCL’s EV/EBITDA Band

(x) EV/EBITDA +1 SD -1 SD
+2 SD -2 SD Mean

2
9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

Industrial Sector: UNTR

Komatsu unit sales by PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) slightly declined to only 400 units in
August due to a relatively high base achievement of 406 units in July. Cumulatively, 3,951 units
were sold in 8M23, which is also slightly lower compared to the 3,989 units sold in 8M22 due
to lower commodity prices that limited several miners' capex spending for equipment. Sixty-
three percent of Komatsu sales in 8M23 went to the mining sector, followed by construction
(15%), forestry (13%), and agro (9%).

However, following the recent decline in coal prices, miners have started to ramp up
production to achieve economies of scale. As a result, UNTR's mining contracting business
under PT Pamapersada Nusantara (Pama) has been performing very well. This is marked by
a 16.4% YoY growth in coal production to 83.8mn tons in 8M23, with a higher stripping ratio
of 8.86x compared to 8.43x in 8M22.

UNTR's coal mining business under PT Tuah Turangga Agung (TTA) is also enjoying a 9.3%
YoY growth in sales volume, reaching 7,983,000 tons in 8M23, up from only 7,300,000 tons
recorded in 8M22. The mining contracting and coal mining business segments contributed a
total of 73.3% to UNTR's consolidated profit before tax in 1H23.

Therefore, looking ahead, aside from expecting a 3.2% interim dividend yield from the
company in October, we favor UNTR due to its ongoing efforts to offset its carbon emissions,
among other things by acquiring a 26.5% stake in a hydro power company, PT Arkora Hydro
Tbk (ARKO), and its participation as a buyer in the recent carbon unit sale on the newly
inaugurated Indonesia Carbon Exchange (IDX Carbon).

Figure 15. UNTR’s P/E Band Figure 16. Komatsu sales volume to several sectors

P/E +1 SD -1 SD +2 SD -2 SD Mean
(x)
Agro
16
9%
14

12
Construction
10 18%

8
Forestry Mining
6
12% 61%
4

0
9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 17. Coal production volume under Pama Figure 18. Coal sales volume under TTA

Coal production (mn tons, L) Overburden removal (mn bcm, R) Coal sales volume (tons)

85 800 8,500,000

80 700 8,000,000
600
75 7,500,000
500
70 7,000,000
400
65 6,500,000
300
60 6,000,000
200
55 100 5,500,000

50 0 5,000,000
8M22 8M23 8M22 8M23

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

Basic Materials (Cement) Sector: INTP

Cement sales volume for August 2023 showed positive growth both on a monthly and yearly
basis, aligning with our projections. National cement consumption reached 5.96mn tons,
indicating a 2.6% MoM increase and a 4.1% YoY increase. This improvement has reduced the
cumulative consumption contraction for the first eight months of 2023 to -1.3% YoY, down
from the previous -2.3% YoY in the first seven months. We are maintaining our full-year 2023
domestic cement consumption target at 62.3mn tons, as the achievement in the first eight
months accounts for 62.9% of our projections, compared to the historical 5-year average run
rate of 62.1%.

We believe the strong cement consumption in Aug23 was primarily driven by the corporate
and infrastructure sectors, rather than the retail segment, as bulk cement sales growth
outperformed bag cement. The former grew 12.7% YoY and a 7.4% MoM to 1.78mn tons,
while bag cement sales only saw a slight uptick to 4.18mn tons, with a 0.8% YoY and 0.7%
MoM increase. Notably, about 70% of the YoY growth in bulk cement sales came from outside
of Java, with Kalimantan contributing 63% of that growth. On the other hand, bag cement
consumption in Java experienced a -3.5% YoY decline, while outside of Java saw a +5% YoY
increase. In summary, bulk cement consumption in 8M23 grew by +7.5% YoY, reaching
10.91mn tons, while bag cement sales fell by -4.4% YoY to 28.28mn tons, that increased the
bulk cement contribution to 27.8% of the total (+2.3ppt YoY).

We anticipate that the robust cement consumption will persist throughout September, driven
by seasonal patterns and dry weather conditions. Historically, sales volume in September has
been one of the best-performing months over the past five years, contributing an average of
9.8% to the annual figures and consistently reporting positive monthly consumption growth.
Accordingly, our projection for cement consumption in Sep23 ranges from 5.96mn to 6.25mn
tons, reflecting a YoY growth rate ranging from -0.4% to 5%. Meanwhile, the recent slight
increase in Newcastle coal prices, we believe the impact is minimal due to the current prices
being significantly better than last year, and the DMO coal regulation remains in place. It is
worth mentioning that the average quarter-to-date (QTD) Newcastle coal price is lower by -
11.9% QoQ and -66% YoY, standing at USD141/ton.

Figure 19. INTP’s EV/EBITDA band Figure 20. Market share of several industry leaders

(x) EV/EBITDA +1 SD -1 SD (%) SMGR INTP CMNT Other

+2 SD -2 SD Mean 100
35

30 75
25

20 50
15

10 25
5

0 0
9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP) reported cement sales volume of 1.62mn tons
(+7.7% YoY but -2.9% MoM) with bag market up by +7% YoY and bulk market grew by +9.8%
YoY. Market share stood at 27.2% (+0.9ppt YoY but -1.6ppt MoM) and cumulatively at 27.6%
(+2.5ppt YoY). The monthly correction both in volume and market share was due to
underperformance in Sumatera (-17.3% MoM vs. Industry -0.2% MoM) and Kalimantan (-3.5%
vs. Industry +11.9%) driven by competition. Cement volume in outside Java grew by +32.7%
YoY to 0.57mn tons, while Java declined by -2.3% YoY to 1.05mn tons. Cumulatively, outside
Java jumped by +41.5% YoY to 3.97mn tons and Java fell by -4.6% YoY to 6.83mn tons. All in
all, the 8M23 sales volume reached 10.8mn tons (+8.4%YoY), which is in line as it accounted
for 62.6% of our projection. We anticipate that INTP will experience greater growth, supported
by production from the leased assets and lower energy prices.

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

Consumer Non-Cyclicals (Poultry) Sector: CPIN

Government regulations play a significant role in shaping the supply side dynamics of the
poultry business, primarily through the implementation of the Grand Parent Stock (GPS)
import quota and the culling program. The GPS import quota is an annual allocation
determined by the government, taking into account various factors such as the current broiler
population, anticipated demand and supply growth for the next 24 months, among others.
Meanwhile, the culling program is used to control the supply of broiler through cutting of
hatchery eggs and/or culling of DOC Final Stock (FS) during oversupply condition.

The GPS import quota in FY23F of 0.67mn livebirds is still below the pre-pandemic level of
0.7mn livebirds in FY19 which we believe is due to high levels of oversupply. Meanwhile, on
the culling program, government through the Ministry of Agriculture has instructed four
culling programs YTD with the latest program was instructed on Aug 24 i.e., cutting Parent
Stock (PS) age 50-54 weeks and HE age 19-day. The PS cutting will be conducted on August 24
– October 7 with a total amount of 2.5mn PS and is expected to reduce DOC FS supply of
70.81mn birds in September-November 2023. The HE cutting will be conducted on September
30 to October 21 for 13.6mn and on 4 November to 18 November for 14.9mn.

Poultry meat stands out as one of the most affordable forms of meat for the majority of
Indonesians, particularly those in the middle to low-income brackets. However, this
demographic is highly price-sensitive and influenced by their purchasing power.
Consequently, the per capita growth rate in poultry meat consumption during the pandemic
remained at 3%, reaching 11.6 kilograms, which is still below the pre-pandemic level of 12.1
kilograms in FY19.

Currently, as we find ourselves in an endemic era with no social restrictions, we believe there
is substantial room for growth in chicken meat consumption. This growth is expected to be
bolstered by economic recovery and increased events and activities. Additionally, it's worth
noting that per capita chicken meat consumption in Indonesia lags behind that of
neighboring countries, suggesting significant untapped potential for expansion.

Figure 21. CPIN’s P/E Band Figure 22. Bearish trend of SBM prices under its MA200

P/E +1 SD -1 SD +2 SD -2 SD Mean
(x)
40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5
9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

The lion's share of manufacturing costs for integrated poultry players can be attributed to
raw materials, constituting more than 75% of the total expenditure. In particular, the spotlight
falls on two key raw materials: corn and soybean meal (SBM). Corn shoulders the weighty
burden of approximately 50% of these costs, while SBM contributes approximately 25%.
Poultry players predominantly source corn locally, as the government has imposed
restrictions on corn imports since FY17. In contrast, due to weather conditions and supply
dynamics, feed producers procure SBM from global suppliers. Therefore, due to the ongoing
decline in SBM prices, we expect better performances from the companies in the sector,
especially PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN).

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

Healthcare Sector: PRDA

Revenue and net profit of PT Prodia Widyahusada Tbk (PRDA) surged 33% and 82%,
respectively, reaching IDR1.1tr and IDR149bn in 1H23 compared to the pre-pandemic period
in 1H19. Apart from improved profitability, this was due to a significant increase in revenue
per patient visit, despite no significant movements to its number of outlets, which is at 290.

On both a QoQ and YoY basis, PRDA's net profit for 2Q23 managed to grow by 8.3% QoQ and
41.8% YoY, reaching IDR77bn, even though the net profit for 1H23, totaling IDR149bn,
remained 6.9% lower YoY. The contribution from the BPJS Prolanis program in 1H23 increased
to 8.4% from 6% of its consolidated sales revenue last year. The volume of genomic testing
surged by 10-11% compared to the 2022 figures. Despite a 4% YoY decrease in the overall
number of visits due to a relatively high base in 2022, revenue per visit managed to grow by
6% YoY, thanks to a much improved range of testing and treatments. The Chronic Disease
Management Program (Prolanis) is a form of healthcare service with a proactive approach
facilitated by the State Insurance Company (BPJS). Its primary target is individuals suffering
from Type 2 Diabetes and Hypertension.

PRDA launched 10 new tests in 1H23. Digital transformation resulted in over 20% growth in
customer acquisition. The overall market share expanded to 40.5%. Looking ahead, if paired
with its omnichannel marketing strategy and enhanced testing capabilities, we believe the
company could maintain competitiveness in the complex testing domain, thereby anticipating
higher capacity and volume of patients. This includes the addition of Point of Care (POC)
outlets, among other strategies. We see that the latest healthcare regulation can encourage
the growth in the number of doctor's practices, thus resulting in a higher number of referrals
to nearby labs.

Looking ahead, we see that the company can further benefit from its development strategies,
all of which focus on customer service excellence:

1) The commitment to launch 10 new tests every year, with a focus not only on
diagnostics but also on preventive care.

2) The ongoing effort to retain walk-in customers and reduce operating expenses
(accounting for 17% of revenue) by developing its own Digital Service through the 'U
by Prodia' app and the 'ProdiaLink' app for B2B.

3) The continuous expansion of its Home Service, and

4) The ongoing effort to upgrade its Lab License to Clinic status, which will enable the
company to generate additional revenue streams from treatments beyond the
existing lab testing. PRDA is limiting its clinical lab expansion to only 1-2 outlets per
year to increase the utilization of its existing facilities.

Figure 23. PRDA’s number of outlets Figure 24. PRDA’s P/E band

P/E +1 SD -1 SD +2 SD -2 SD Mean
(x)

30

25

20

15

10

5
9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

Our previous stock picks performances

Our stock picks portfolio experienced a 4.4% decline from August to September, compared to
JCI which saw a 0.4% increase during the same observation period. Nevertheless, we perceive
that this temporary setback is essential to create space for further improvement, particularly
in preparation for potential window dressing in the fourth quarter of this year.

• ASII experienced the most significant decline, following reports about the
vulnerability of its scooter chassis to corrosion, followed by TLKM, which still failed
to satisfy investors with single-digit growth guidance for this year, despite initiating
a strategy known as the 5-Bold-Moves (FMC, InfraCo Fiber, DataCenterCo, B2B IT
ServCo, DigiCo). MPMX, INTP, and ERAA also lacked further catalysts to drive their
stock prices more positively.

• On the other hand, AKRA and PRDA managed to achieve positive returns, with
AKRA's success in selling JIIPE land to Hebang and PRDA's financial performance
surging higher compared to the pre-pandemic period.

✓ AKRA's sale of JIIPE land is estimated to reach 96.6 hectares this year,
exceeding the initial target of 70-75 hectares set at the beginning of the
year, which may lead the company to revise its upward net profit estimate.

✓ PRDA's revenue and net profit increased by 33% and 82%, respectively,
reaching IDR1.1tr and IDR149bn in 1H23 compared to the pre-pandemic
period in 1H19. Apart from improved profitability, this was due to a
significant increase in revenue per patient visit, despite no additions to the
existing 290 outlets.

• EXCL didn't show much movement, after briefly rising due to news about a merger
plan with FREN.

Figure 25. Portfolio Index value vs. JCI Index value Figure 26. Portfolio Index return vs. JCI Index return
Portfolio Index value (L) JCI Index (R) Portfolio Index return (L) JCI Index return (R)

1,080 7,000 5% 4%
4% 3%
6,950
1,060 3% 2%
6,900
2%
1,040 1%
6,850 1%
0%
1,020 6,800 0%
-1%
-1%
6,750
1,000 -2%
-2%
6,700 -3%
-3%
980
6,650 -4% -4%

960 6,600 -5% -5%

Inception May-Jun'23 Jun-Jul'23 Jul-Aug'23 Aug-Sep'23 May-Jun'23 Jun-Jul'23 Jul-Aug'23 Aug-Sep'23

Source: Market data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Market data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Table 6. Individual stocks performances (%)

Stocks Return
AKRA IJ Equity 12.2
PRDA IJ Equity 7.6
EXCL IJ Equity 0.0
MPMX IJ Equity -5.1
TLKM IJ Equity -7.9
INTP IJ Equity -10.6
ERAA IJ Equity -10.8
ASII IJ Equity -14.3
Source: Market data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers

Analyst Certification
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible
for this report. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in
the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia,
the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional
equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason
to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia except as otherwise stated herein.

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Indonesia Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such
information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness,
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 15

September 29, 2023 Indonesia Strategy

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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 16