Case Study: Project Management Analysis in the Internet Forecasting Industry

Activity Task:
1. What is the estimated completion time of this project under normal conditions?
2. What is the probability that the project could be completed within the deadline of 35 weeks
(normal conditions)?

Exhibit 1
PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND TIME ESTIMATES (WEEKS)

Task Description Most optimistic Most likely Most IP

pessimistic
A Requirements 2 3 4 -
B Market assessment 4 7 10 A
C Design 5 6 9 A
D Development 6 7 16 C
E Testing 7 9 10 D
F Revising 4 5 6 B,E
G Documentation 3 6 10 D
H Quality assurance 2 4 7 C,E
I Pricing 2 2 2 B
J Production 3 4 14 F,G,H,I
K Distribution 2 3 4 J

Exhibit 2

PROJECT CRASH DATA

Task Normal costs ($)
A 10,000
B 20,000
C 15,000
D 45,000
E 10,000
F 15,000
G 20,000
H 10,000
I 5,000
J 40,000
K 15,000
Crash time (weeks) Crash costs ($)
3 10,000
6 25,000
5 30,000
6 65,000
8 20,000
4 18,000
4 30,000
3 15,000
2 5,000
5 50,000
2 25,000
 Solution:

1. Estimated Time:

Most Most Most Estimated Expected

Tas
Description optimistic likely pessimistic IP completion Time = Time
k
To Tm Tp (To + (Tm*4) +Tp) /6 (weeks)
A Requirements 2 3 4 - 3.00 3.00
B Market assessment 4 7 10 A 7.00 7.00
C Design 5 6 9 A 6.33 6.33
D Development 6 7 16 C 8.33 8.33
E Testing 7 9 10 D 8.83 8.83
F Revising 4 5 6 B,E 5.00 5.00
G Documentation 3 6 10 D 6.17 6.17
H Quality assurance 2 4 7 C,E 4.17 4.17
I Pricing 2 2 2 B 2.00 2.00
F,G,H,
J Production 3 4 14
I 5.50 5.50
K Distribution 2 3 4 J 3.00 3.00

The network diagram for the above project is shared below:

Critical Paths: The various critical paths for the above project are as below:

 A-B-I-J-K path - 3 + 7 + 2 + 5.5 + 3 = 20.5 weeks

 A-B-F-J-K path - 3 + 7 + 5 + 5.5 + 3 = 23.5 weeks
 A-C-H-J-K path - 3 + 6.33 + 4.17 + 5.5 + 3 = 22 weeks
 A-C-D-E-H-J-K path - 3 + 6.33 + 8.33 + 8.83 + 4.17 + 5.5 + 3 = 39.16 weeks
 A-D-G-J-K path - 3 + 8.33 + 6.17 + 5.5 + 3 = 26 weeks
Actual Critical Path is A-C-D-E-H-J-K – 39.16 weeks.
2. Probability Calculation:
Variance = (To-Tp)/6^2

Task Expected Time Variance

A 3.00 0.11
C 6.33 0.44
D 8.33 2.78
E 8.83 0.25
H 4.17 0.69
J 5.50 3.36
K 3.00 0.11
Time 39.16 7.75
*Calculations made on excel

Sum of Critical Path Variance = 7.75

Standard Deviation = Square Root (7.75) = 2.782
Probability of completion of project in 35 weeks (excel formula) = NORMDIST(Z,1) = 0.07