Lecture23-27 FrequencyAnalysis&Mgmt

Chapter Three
Frequency Analysis
Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Hydrology and Floodplain Analysis, Fourth Edition
Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458
By Philip B. Bedient, Wayne C. Huber, and Baxter E. Vieux
All rights reserved.
Ch 3 Terms
• Random variables
• Discrete and Continuous Variables
• Dependent and independent variables
• Stationary and non-stationary
• Trended versus untrended data
• Mean, median, min, max
• Variance, Standard Deviation
More Ch 3 Terms
• Dependent and independent variables
• Histogram
• Frequency
• Relative Frequency
• Class interval or “bin”
• Cumulative frequency
• Probability
Ch 3 Terms 3
• Skewness: positive and negative
• Probability density function or probability
mass function
• Cumulative distribution function
• Moments of a distribution
• 1st moment about origin = mean
• Central moments = about the mean
Ch 3 Terms 4
• Second central moment is the variance
• First central moment = 0 (symmetrical
distribution)
• Standard deviation = sqrt of variance
• Fitting the data with a pdf means equating the
mean of the dataset to the mean of the
distribution and the standard deviation of the
dataset to the standard deviation of the
distribution
Ch 3 Terms 5
• Recurrence interval T
• Normal and lognormal distribution
Figure 3-1

Figure 3-2

Figure 3-3

Frequency Analysis in Hydrology
• Frame data in a statistical context
• Obtain general data descriptors such as
central tendencies
• Develop design storms
• Develop measures of hydrologic properties
such as:
– Base flow, low flow
– Infiltration etc.
Table 3-1

Figure 3-4

Figure 3-5

Figure 3-7

Figure 3-9

Figure 3-10

Table 3-2

Figure 3-15

Table 3-5

Figure 3-18

Table 3-8

Table 3-7

Table 3-7 (continued)

Figure 3-20

Risk of Recurrence
• T – recurrence interval
An annual maximum event has a return period of
T yrs if its magnitude is equaled or exceeded
once, on the average, every T years
– Return period does not imply anything about the
actual time sequence of an event
– A 50-yr flood does not occur once every 50-years
– On average, twenty 50-yr floods would be expected
during a 1000 year period

So what is the risk of a T-yr flood?
• Risk = 1 – (1-1/T)n
• Example 3-7
– Probability that at least 1 50-yr flood will occur
in a 30-yr design period
– Risk = 1 – (1-.02)30 = .455 is that too high? Then
design for a 100-yr
– Risk 100 yr = 1 – (1-.01)30=.26 so there is a 26%
chance of a 100-yr storm in a 30 year time
interval. Is that good enough?

Risk approaches probability as T gets larger
• 100-yr storm in 10 years

– Risk = 1-(1-.01)10=.1
• 100 yr storm in 100 years
– Risk = 1-(1-.01)100=.63
• 100 yr storm in 2 years
– Risk = 1-(1-.01)200=.87
And so on
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS FOR 1 event

What is a PDF and PMF
• PDF – Probability Density Function (or probability
mass function)
With X being a random variable, a PDF is a
continuous function that describes the chance that
X takes on the value x ± Δx
From Siletz data, P(7,500 cfs)=.013 (see example 3-
1)
• P(Xi) with conditions that:
– P(Xi) is always between 0 and 1
– The sum of all P(Xi)s must be 1
What is a CDF
• Cumulative Distribution Function
Probability that random variable X is below or
above a certain value
F(x) = P(X ≤ x)
From Siletz Data,
F(22,500)=.013+.173+.360+.267=.813 or 81.3%
Probability that X is between x values a and b
Figure 3-7

Why are probability distributions
useful?
• The PMF or PDF is a functional form whose
moments are related to its parameters so if
you know the moments, then you can
estimate the paramaters
• First let’s define moments (refresher
hopefully)
– The nth moment about the origin is
Σ from -∞ to ∞ of (xiN P(xi))
Moments of interest
• 1st moment about the origin is the mean or
average or “expected value”
– Mean or μ = sum from –infinity to +infinity of
xiP(xi)
Which is why the mean is a measure of central tendency
(think center of gravity)
• Thus, a central moment about the mean gives a
measure of spread
– 2nd central moment is the variance
(xi-μ)2P(xi)
– Standard deviation σ is square root of variance
So the big news
• If I select a PDF (normal distribution for
example) and I know μ and σ – I can calculate
any probability with just these 2 numbers!
• If I have a dataset with mean (xbar) and
standard deviation Sx, you can fit the data
with the PDF by assuming
– Xbar ≈ μ
– Sx ≈ σ
The End Game
• We define a variable z for a given distribution
– z = (x-μ)/σ
• We develop tabulated values of a PDF or CDF
as a function of z
• With this information you can fit a dataset
with a PDF and estimate P(xi) such that
– x = xbar + z.Sx
Recurrence Interval or Return Period T
• Defining probability in this context makes it
easier to work with
• So the 100-yr has a probability of being
exceeded of 1 in 100 (0.01 or 1% chance)
• The 100-yr then is an annual maximum event
that has a return period of 100 years if its
magnitude is equaled or exceeded once, on
the average, every 100 years
• 1/T=1-F and Prob=1/T
Normal Distribution
Partial
Table
For Normal
Distribution
Partial Table For Normal Distribution
Siletz 100 yr using normal distribution
• Mean = 20,452
• Std dev = 6089
• F(Q100)=1-1/100=.99
• Go To Table D-2, for F=.99, z=2.326
• Z=2.326=(x-xbar)/σ, find x
• Q100=34,620 cfs
Table 3-5

Skewness
• Mean of pdf = μ
• Standard Deviation = σ
• Skewness g = μ/σ3
Skewness is the 3rd central moment
Skewness is a shape parameter
• Skewness in a dataset
Cs=[n/(n-1)*(n-2)]*[Σ(xi-xbar)3/Sx3]
Figure 3-15

Skewness
• Mean of pdf = μ
• Standard Deviation = σ
• Skewness g = μ/σ3
• Skewness is also = 3CV + CV3
Coefficient of Variation
• Coefficient of variation
CV = σ/μ
CV is a normalized measure of the scale of the
distribution
The median
• xm
• The value of x for which the CDF = 0.5
• F(xm) = .5
• This is true independent of the underlying
statistical distribution of the dataset
Lognormal Distribution
• Take the logs of the data (y)
• The distribution of log(x) is normal
• The log of the mean is NOT the mean of the
logs
• μy = log xm
Siletz Lognormal pdf
• z was 2.326 for the 100-yr
• y100 = 4.29209 + 2.326*.12905
= 4.5923
Q100=10y100=39,100 cfs
• Probability that flow will be less or equal to
30,000 cfs
y = log10(30,000) = 4.4771
z=(4.4771-4.2921)/.12905=1.4337
From Table D-1 F(1.4337)=.9242
T=1/(1-.9242)=13.1 yrs
Graphical Methods in Hydrology
Data Statistics
Histograms
Probability Plots
Excel
Figure 3-18

Table 3-8

Figure 3-20

Rainfall Data Statistics for Design
Storms
IDF development
Design Storm Construction
Problem 1.24 in Textbook to Illustrate IDF
use for Design Storm Construction
More than a 100-year storm

So how do we obtain the IDF?
Hint: take all storms of a particular duration and plot their relative
frequencies based on rainfall amount
How does all this rainfall, flow, and

channel hydraulics connect to
watersheds and water quality?
Stormwater Quality Management
Treatment Difficulties
• Runoff occurs on an irregular basis
• Volume and rate of runoff from storms is
highly variable
• Quality of runoff varies from storm to
storm
• Concentrations of constituents of
concern often very low
Pollutant Removal
Mechanisms
• Particle settling
• Filtration
• Biological uptake/degradation
• Infiltration
• Volatilization
• Photodegradation
• Oxidation
Typical Stormwater BMPs
• Retention (wet) ponds
• Sand filters
• Extended detention
• Vegetated swales and buffer strips
• Infiltration basins and trenches
• Bioretention
• Proprietary devices
Water Quality Volume
• Volume that must be treated
• Calculated based on individual storm
first flush or annual load captured
• Expressed as:
– Inches of runoff
– Inches of rainfall
Central Park Wet Pond (TX)
Wet Pond
Orlando Pond
Retention Pond, Denver
Eager Beavers, Baltimore
Split Rail Perimeter Fence
Sand Filter Design Guidance
• Design as Offline device
• “Full Sedimentation” discharge runoff
from sedimentation basin to filter basin
over 24 hours
• “Partial Sedimentation” water quality
volume includes area over the filter – no
separate sedimentation basin
Austin Sand Filter Schematic
Offline Filter Design
sin on
b a nta ti
e
im
b a tio n
se d
T
sin
a
HM
filtr
sam pler E
sam pler B
c reek
s ro a d b ox
a c c es sp litte r
sam pler A
Inlet
Channel
Diversion Structure
Sedimentation Basin
Austin Filter Bed
Failed Sand Filter
Trash and Debris
Partial Sedimentation
Gabion Construction
Integrated SF Design
Sand Filter Exterior
Typical Detention Basin
Extended Detention Basin
Extended Detention Basin
Uniform Distributed Small-scale Controls
Maintaining Natural Hydrology Functions

Schematic of Swale and Strip
Swale Construction
Swale
Swale
Buffer Strip
Highway Shoulders
Infiltration Trench
Infiltration Trench/Buffer Strip
Bioretention
Maplewood, Minnesota (near St. Paul)
Rain gardens installed by city as part of street replacement project
Green
Roofs
Porous Pavement
CDS Technology
Summary of Solids (TSS) Removal
• Retention Pond 93%

• Austin Sand Filter 90%
• Buffer Strip 85%
• Detention Basin 72%
• Grassy Swale 49%
• Proprietary Controls 20%??

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Chapter Three

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

• 100-yr storm in 10 years

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Copyright ©2008 by Pearson Education, Inc.

More than a 100-year storm

How does all this rainfall, flow, and

Maintaining Natural Hydrology Functions

• Retention Pond 93%

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