"REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF THE AVERAGE STATISTICAL OUTPUT

AND INCOME OF FAMILIES"
Koyshybai Beknur Erbolatuly, Tursynkhan Turganai Serikhanovna
3nd year students of the Institute of Pedagogy, Astana International University,
Astana, Kazakhstan
Email: tursynkhanturganai@gmail.com , beknur.koishybai1976@mail.ru
Research supervisor: Zhanys Arai Boshankyny, PhD, acting professor
Abstract. This article examines the mathematical modeling of income and
expenditure of the average statistical income of families in the Republic of
Kazakhstan, focusing on the income and expenditure of three specific families.
Families selected for analysis include young couples without children, couples
with one child, and couples with a student child. The relationship between inputs
and outputs is studied using three-way linear regression. The results show a
positive correlation between parents' income and their expenses, and a correlation
is observed in families with children. In addition, the presence of children has a
significant effect on family costs, and the income of a child in a family with a
student child also affects total costs. These results highlight the importance of
considering the presence of children and their income when analyzing family
expenditures. The study sheds light on the financial difficulties faced by families in
the Republic of Kazakhstan and sheds light on the complex dynamics between
income and expenditure [1].
Key words: mathematical modeling, average statistical product, income,
expenditure, family dynamics, three-way linear regression, Republic of
Kazakhstan.

Introduction. This study aims to develop a mathematical model that studies

the average statistical output and income of families in the Republic of
Kazakhstan, paying special attention to the analysis of their income and expenses.
Understanding the financial dynamics of families is essential for assessing
economic well-being and identifying potential areas for improving the country's
socioeconomic status. By examining the income and expenditure of three different
families, this study reveals the complex relationship between income and
expenditure patterns within different family members.
The first family selected for analysis is a newly married couple without
children. The husband works as a construction worker, the wife as a teacher. The
second family, who have been married for ten years, father is a doctor, mother is a
housekeeper, and has one child. The last, the third family that has been married for
twenty years has a father who is a policeman, a mother who is a floor cleaner and a
student.
A three-factor linear regression analysis is used to gain insight into the
income and expenditure of these families. Taking into account the unique
circumstances of each family, the study takes into account changes such as the
absence of children in the first family, the addition of child benefits due to the
newborn in the second family, and the income of both the parents and the student
in the third family.
Through this regression analysis, the study aims to determine the correlation
between income and expenditure in the selected families. In addition, it attempts to
determine how the presence of children and the income of a child affect overall
expenditure patterns. Such conclusions are very important for politicians and
economists to understand the financial difficulties faced by families in the
Republic of Kazakhstan and to formulate effective strategies to promote economic
stability and well-being .
This study examines the income and expenditure of families in the Republic
of Kazakhstan using a mathematical objective model. By analyzing the income and
expenditure patterns of three different families, the study attempts to reveal the
relationship between income and expenditure, particularly the impact of having
children and child income on family expenditure. The results of this study
contribute to the existing body of knowledge on family economics and provide
valuable insights to policymakers, economists, and researchers seeking to improve
the financial well-being of families in Kazakhstan.
The purpose of the article. The goal is to analyze the financial situation of
three different family situations and identify the main factors that affect their
income and expenses. We consider a young family without children, a family with
one child and a family with a student child.
To achieve this goal, we use mathematical modeling and data analysis
techniques. We collect information about the income and expenses of each family
and do a detailed analysis of each situation. We hope that the results of our
research will help people better understand their financial needs and make
informed financial decisions.
We believe that this article will be useful to everyone who is interested in the
topic of personal finance and family financial stability [3].
Family profiles. In this section, we introduce the three families included in
our analysis, detailing their demographic characteristics, occupations, and monthly
income and expenditure patterns.
1. Young family. The first family we are looking at is a young couple who
have been married for five years and currently have no children. The husband
works as a construction worker, the wife as a teacher. Their monthly expenses are
270,000 tenge. Father's income is 245,000 tenge, and mother's income is 350,000
tenge.
2. One-child family. The second family has been married for ten years and
has one child. His father is a doctor, and his mother is a housewife. Apart from
their profession, they receive allowances to support their newborns. Their monthly
expenses are 295,000 tenge, father's income is 400,000 tenge, mother has no
income.
3. A family with a student child. The third family, married for twenty years,
has one child, who is a student. His father is a police officer, and his mother works
as a floor cleaner. A student's income contributes to the family's financial
resources, apart from the parents' income. Their monthly expenses are 315,000
tenge. The father's income is 180,000 tenge, the mother's income is 80,000 tenge,
and the child's additional income is 100,000 tenge.
Three-factor linear regression analysis. We illustrate the following results by
constructing and analyzing a three-factor regression model using a real example.
The table shows the income and expenses of the first, second and third families
according to sample data [4].
2 2 2
x 1 ; x 2 ; x 3 ; x 1 ; x 2 ; x 3 ; yx 1 ; yx 2 ; yx 3 ; x 1 x 2 ; x 1 x3 ; x 2 x 3

y=a+b 1 x 1+ b2 x 2 +b 3 x 3

We use pairwise correlation coefficients to measure the closeness of the

relationship between the three variables under consideration. The method of
calculating such coefficients and their interpretation is similar to the method of
calculating the linear correlation coefficient in the case of a one-factor relationship.
If the standard deviations of the analyzed values are known, then the pairwise
correlation coefficients can be easily calculated using the following formulas [5].
First, we calculate the standard deviations:
1 √
σ x = ( x 2 )−x 2= √ 126212 ,5−75625 = √ 50587 , 5 = 225
1 1

2 2
2 √
σ x = ( x 2 )−x 2= √ 42966 , 6−20334 , 8 = 149,7

3 √
σ x = ( x 2 ) −x2 =√ 3429 , 6−1521=43 ,6
3 3

Then the pairwise correlation coefficients are:

σ y =√ y − y = √ 86383 , 3−86024 , 8=18 , 9
2 2

The ratio of factor signs can be calculated according to the following

formulas:
yx 1− y∗x 1 80283 ,3−293 , 3∗273
r yx = = =0 , 04
1
δ y∗δ x1 18 , 9∗225
dependence of y on x1;
yx 2 − y∗x 2 39900−293 , 3∗143 ,3
r yx = = =−0 ,75
2
δ y∗δ x2 18 , 9∗149 ,7
dependence of y on x2;
yx3 − y∗x 3 12171, 6−293 , 3∗39
r yx = = =0 ,88
3
δ y∗δ x3 18 , 9∗43 , 6
dependence of y on x3;
For our example, we calculate individual correlation coefficients:
x 1 x2 −x1∗x 2 33383 , 3−275∗143 , 3
rx x = = =0 , 17
1 2
δ x ∗δ x2
1
225∗149 , 7
 x 1 x3 −x 1∗x 3 8266 , 6−275∗39
rx x = = =−0 , 25
1 3
δ x ∗δ x3
1
225∗43 , 6

x2 x 3−x 2∗x 3 2666 , 6−143 , 3∗39

rx x = = =−0 , 44
2 3
δ x ∗δ x3
2
149 ,7∗43 ,6
where r are the correlation coefficients between the respective features.
We see this system. We can solve by Gauss method.

{ }
r yx =β 1 + β 2 r x x + β 3 r x x
1 1 2 1 3

r yx =β 1 r x x + β 2 + β 3 r x x
2 1 2 1 3

r yx =β 1 r x x + β 2 r x x + β 3
3 1 3 2 3

( | )
1 0 , 17 −0 ,25 0 , 04
0 , 17 1 −0 ,25 −0 ,75
−0 ,25 −0 , 44 1 0 ,88

( | )
1 0 , 17 −0 , 25 0 , 04
0 0,6519 −2,4804 −0,7568
0 −0,3975 0,9375 0 , 89

( | )
1 −0 , 25
0 , 17 0 , 04
−25 −7568
0 1
117 9711
0 −0,3975 0,9375 0 , 89

( | )( | )( | )
−25 1675 1675 1504
1 0 −25
117 9711 1 0 9711 4731
117 1 0 0
−25 −7568 −7568 −2999
0 1 −25 0 1 0
117 9711 0 1 9711 4731
117 0 0 1
133 187817 26831 26831
0 0 0 0 1
156 323700 39425 39425

{ }{
1504
β1 =

}
4731 β 1=0 , 31
−2999
β 2= β 2=−0 , 63
4731
β 3=0 , 68
26831
β 3=
39425

β 1∗δ y
b 1= ;
δx
1

β 2∗δ y
b 2= ;
δx
2
 β 3∗δ y
b 3= ;
δx3

31∗18 , 9
b 1=0 , =0 , 02
225

63∗18 , 9
b 2=−0 , =−0 , 07
149 ,7

68∗18 , 9
b 3=0 , =¿ 0,29
43 , 6
Thus, in the case of the complex effect of factors, the connection of each
factor with the studied indicator is weak [6].
a= y−b1 x 1−b 2 x 2−b 3 x 3=293 , 3−0 , 02∗275−(−0 , 07 )∗143 ,3−0 , 29∗39=286 , 5

t y =β 1 tx 1+ β 2 tx 2 + β 3 tx3 =0 , 31∗tx 1 +(−0 , 63)∗tx 2 +0 , 63∗tx3

The three-factor regression equation representing the dependence of family Y's
expenses on x1, x2, x3 income will be as follows:
^y x x x =a 0+ a1 x 1 +a 2 x 2+ a3 x3
1 2 3

The three-factor regression mathematical model for predicting the expenses

and incomes of the average family of the Republic of Kazakhstan can be presented
as follows:
^y x x x =a 0+ a1 x 1 +a 2 x 2+ a3 x3 =286 , 5+0 , 02 x 1−0 , 07 x 2 +0 , 29 x 3
1 2 3

Conclusion. In the course of this study, the income and expenses of three
families of the Republic of Kazakhstan were analyzed and modeled using three-
factor linear regression. Analysis of the data showed that there is a positive
correlation between the income of families and their expenditure. In addition, it
was found that the presence of a newborn baby in the second family significantly
affects the costs, and the income of a child in the third family significantly affects
the total costs.
These results can be of practical use in financial planning and resource
management for families in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Our model can be used to
predict future expenses and income of families, helping them plan their finances
better.
In conclusion, we hope that our results will be useful for practical
application in the field of financial family planning. We strongly believe that our
work will be of interest to specialists engaged in research in this field.

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Management: A Review of Concepts and Theoretical Frameworks. Journal of
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 2. Beck, A. (2019). Economic Analysis of Family Costs: A Review of
Methods and Approaches. Review of Economics and Household, 17(4), 1181-
1206. doi: 10.1007/s11150-019-09456-5
3. Muratov, T., & Ybraeva, A. (2022). Socio-economic factors affecting
family expenses in Kazakhstan. Central Asian Survey, 41(1), 52-69.
4. Fisher, R. A. (1921). On the "Probable Error" of a Correlation Coefficient
Derived from a Small Sample. Metron, 1(3), 3-32.
5. Wasserman, L. (2013). All Statistics: A Short Course in Statistical
Inference.
6. Zhanys A. B., Gizatov E., Educational and methodological manual:
Econometrics of the Zapadno-Kazakhstan Engineering and Humanities University.
Uralsk, 2014. © ZKIGU, 2014, © ZKF JSC "NCNTI", 2015