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Chapter Five: Deformation Prediction

5. Deformation Prediction
5.1 Settlement and Deformation
5.1.1 General
5.1.2 Types of deformations
5.2 Methods of Determining Deformation in Dams
5.2.1 General
5.2.2 Empirical predictive methods
5.2.3 Finite element predictive methods
5.2.4 Cracking of Embankment Dams

Chapter Five: Deformation Prediction

5.3 Arching Effect on the Resulting Deformation of Earth Dams
5.4 Review of components of Settlement
5.4.1 Elastic settlement (or immediate settlement) with mean
stress
5.4.2 Settlement due to consolidation
References

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5.1 Settlement and Deformation

5.1.1 General
For embankment dams, deformations under static loading occur
as a result of volumetric changes, lateral spreading, or shear
displacements within the embankment and foundation materials.
Volumetric changes are due to either:
- an increase in the normal stresses on a soil element
- lateral spreading and shear displacements are due to
squeezing, distorting, and localized shear failures
imposed during construction and operation
5.1.2 Types of deformations
The movement of a specific point within a dam or its foundation
can be: vertical movement, upstream/downstream movement
and longitudinal movement.

5.1.2 Types of deformations

The three types of deformations of interest in an embankment
dam are:
- Uniform or near-uniform movements
- Sharply nonuniform or differential movements
- Lateral movements
Uniform Movements:
- uniform or near-uniform movements of points within an
embankment dam
- do not usually cause internal straining or cracking in the
soil deposit
- uniform settlements do, however, reduce a dam's
freeboard

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5.1.2 Types of deformations

Differential Movements:
- relative movements between neighboring points or
sections within an embankment dam, or in the foundation
- cause internal straining in an embankment and can lead to
the formation of cracks in the soil mass
- excessive differential movements within the body of an
embankment (foundation) can lead to failure of the dam

5.1.2 Types of deformations

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5.1.2 Types of deformations

5.1.2 Types of deformations

Lateral Movements:
✓ may be due to spreading of an embankment dam and
and/or settlement of a foundation.
✓ excessive spreading of an embankment may lead to the
formation of longitudinal cracks.
✓ longitudinal cracks have been observed in many
embankments built on clay foundations.

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5.2 Methods of Determining Deformation in Dams

5.2.1 General
For embankment dams, the components of deformation are those that occur
as a result of:
- changes in effective stress conditions (during construction, on
impoundment and due to reservoir fluctuation),
- change in total stress (for wet placed earth fill cores in zoned
embankments),
- saturation or wetting (e.g. collapse compression), and
- on-going time dependent or creep type deformation.
Deformation predictive methods:
- deformation during construction,
- deformation on first filling, and
- long term post construction deformation (or post first
filling).

5.2.2 Empirical predictive methods

- 5.2.2.1 Deformation during the Construction Stage of the
Dam
Empirical methods for the prediction of deformations during
construction are limited and probably curtailed by the
availability of finite element methods.

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5.2.2.1 Deformation during the Construction Stage of the Dam

The complexity of stress and deformation behavior during

construction, particularly for zoned embankments, makes
assessment by simple empirical methods difficult.
The available empirical methods include Poulos et al (1972),
Penman et al (1971) and ICOLD (1993).
Further reading:
- Simplified Calculation of Embankment Deformations:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038080620
326421
- Staged Construction and Settlement of a Dam Founded on
Soft Clay:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/245294405

5.2.2.2 Post-Construction Deformation

Empirical predictive methods of the post-construction
deformation from the literature are typically based on historical
deformation curves for similar embankment types or empirical
relationships derived from historical deformation performance.
Sowers et al. (1965) examined settlement versus time data for
14 dams (Figure 5.4) and concluded that the settlement per unit
height of earth dams is independent of the dam height, cross
section and fill material type, but dependent on construction
method. They suggested a logarithmic relation between time and
settlement of the form:

Where ∆H is crest settlement in percent of the fill height

between the times t1 and t2 from the beginning of the settlement
period, and α represents the settlement rate per log cycle of time

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5.2.2.2 Post-Construction Deformation

5.2.2.2 Post-Construction Deformation

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5.2.2.2 Post-Construction Deformation

Later, Parkin (1977) questioned the reliability of empirical
(logarithmic) equations and states that a rate analysis can
eliminate time-independent factors that amplify imperfection in
the data. He also stated that, as several irregular events happen
during the post-construction period, it is hard to distinguish the
creep pattern from other phenomena. However, he suggested the
following empirical equation, in strain rate form for crest
settlements:

Where e is the creep rate, and a and b are parameters that can be
driven from log e versus log t curves (Figure 5.5).
For a parameter m equal to unity, the equation integrates to the
logarithmic equation of Sowers et al. (1965).

5.2.2.2 Post-Construction Deformation

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5.2.2.2 Post-Construction Deformation

Crest settlement of Bastyan (Figure 5.6):
- a significant drop in the settlement versus time graphs
during and shortly after the impoundment period
- Subsequent to the short-time after impoundment, the time
dependent deformations continue taking place

5.2.3 Finite element predictive methods

There are a number of commercial finite element software that
predicts deformations caused by an embankment dam including
GEOSTUDIO and PLAXIS
- GEOSTUDIO SIGMA/W is a finite element software product
that can be used to perform stress and deformation analyses
of earth structures. The most common application of
SIGMA/W is to compute deformations caused by earthworks
such as foundations, embankments, excavations and tunnels.
- PLAXIS is a finite element package intended for the two-dimensional or
three-dimensional analysis of deformation, stability, dynamics and
groundwater flow in geotechnical engineering. PLAXIS is a finite element
package that has been developed specifically for the analysis of deformation
and stability in geotechnical engineering projects.

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5.2.3.1 GEOSTUDIO
SIGMA/W is formulated for the following elastic and elastic-
plastic constitutive soil models including:
- Linear-elastic,
- Anisotropic linear-elastic,
- Non-linear-elastic,
- Elastic-plastic (Tresca & Mohr-Coulomb failure
criterion),
- Strain-softening (Von Mises failure criterion),
- Cam-Clay (critical state), and
- Modified Cam-Clay (critical state).

5.2.3.1 GEOSTUDIO
SIGMA/W analysis types include insitu, load/deformation,
coupled stress/PWP, volume change, stress redistribution and
dynamic deformation.
- Drained total and effective stress,
- Undrained effective stress,
- Total stress analysis with pore-water pressures based on
total stress changes,
- Two-dimensional plane strain,
- Three-dimensional axisymmetric,
- Volume change (deformation due to changes in pore-
water pressure; uncoupled consolidation when integrated
with SEEP/W), and insitu stress analysis

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5.2.4 Cracking of Embankment Dams

The simplest manifestation of embankment deformation is that it
renders the dam geometry somewhat irregular, which may or
may not be noticeable to an untrained eye.
Through survey and other dam instrumentation data, one can
determine the magnitude and direction of these movements at
their respective locations.
If the deformations become excessive, they may cause:
- visible cracks on the crest and/or faces of the dam, and/or
- hidden cracks within the body of the dam where they remain
invisible.

5.2.4 Cracking of Embankment Dams

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5.2.4 Cracking of Embankment Dams

5.2.4 Cracking of Embankment Dams

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5.3 Arching Effect on the Result in Deformation of Earth Dams

Soil arching typically develops during construction and

impounding of an embankment dam, when differential
settlements and stress redistribution occurs from softer (core)
soils to stiffer (shell) soils.
- This process can reduce the total soil stresses on the upstream
face of the dam core, to a point where the effective minor
principle stresses are near zero or even negative (in cohesive
soils), leading to eventual triggering of hydraulic fracturing.

5.3 Arching Effect on the Result in Deformation of Earth Dams

- In a central core earth and rockfill dam, internal stress

redistribution might take place in both directions, i.e., by
transverse arching of the core between the upstream and
downstream shells (Figure 5.8) and longitudinally between dam
sections of different height (Figure 5.9).
- A critical zone for potential leaks is over the abutments, where
longitudinal stretching of the dam and hydraulic fracturing are
most probable.

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5.3 Arching Effect on the Result in Deformation of Earth Dams

- The difference in hardness of the valley and the dam is

another factor that can cause arching. Arching percentage with
respect to the geometry of the dam (or the valley) has been
provided by Sharma (1991)

5.3 Arching Effect on the Result in Deformation of Earth Dams

- The arching ratio represents the amount of stress transferred

from overhead. Arching ratio can be given by:
Where:
σ: The total stress at the point of
γh: Moderate amounts of overhead ground at that point

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5.3 Arching Effect on the Result in Deformation of Earth Dams

Where:
α is in degrees
B is the bottom width of the dam;
α is the lateral aspect angle with the vertical axis of the dam
in degrees;
Ed is the elastic modulus of the dam; and Er is the elastic
modulus of the dam foundation.

5.4.1 Elastic settlement (or immediate settlement) with mean stress

Immediate settlement, ΔHi = ℇ.H

Where:
H is the thickness of the layer,
ν is the Poisson’s Ratio,
Δσ is the change in total vertical stress,
ΔσM is the change in mean stress and E is the Young’s modulus

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5.4.2 Settlement due to consolidation

Consolidation settlement,
ΔHc = Δℇ.H

5.4.2 Settlement due to consolidation

Secondary compression (creep),, ΔHs = Δℇs.H
Using the void ratio at the end of primary
consolidation, ep, the change in secondary vertical
strain for a change in time from t1 to t2 is

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