What we know beyond dispute

1. CO2 and other greenhouse gases cause earth to trap more heat
2. Concentrations of these gases are going up— and more importantly,
we are on track for concentrations to go up by a lot more
3. The earth’s temperature is starting to rise
• Longest record of atmospheric CO2 using direct air sampling
• CO2 concentration increased 11% from 2000 to 2020
Ice cores show CO2 concentrations
over the 800,000 years
Ice cores show CO2 concentrations over the
800,000 years
On track to go up by a lot
more
What we know beyond dispute
1. CO2 and other greenhouse gases cause earth to trap more heat
2. Concentrations of these gases are going up— and more importantly,
we are on track for concentrations to go up by a lot more
3. The earth’s temperature is starting to rise
Are we the cause?
• Attribution: Assess relative
probability of different models being
true given data
• Think of a probability model for coin
flips
• Very hard to explain the warming
trend over past 20 years in a model
that ignores human causes
• Evidence for this has consistently
gotten stronger over past 30 years
IPCC AR6 (2021)
Are humans the cause?
• IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001): “Most of the
observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have
been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”

• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007): "Most of the

observed increase in global average temperatures since the
mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase
in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

• IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2013): “It is extremely likely

that human influence has been the dominant cause of the
observed warming since the mid-20th century.”

• IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021): “It is indisputable

that human influence has been the dominant cause of the
observed warming since the mid-20th century.”
Where are we headed?
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) reflect five
potential narratives about the future (IPCC 2021)
• SSP5: Fossil-fueled development – high challenges to mitigation
• SSP4: Inequality – Highly unequal investments in human capital, combined
with increasing disparities in economic opportunity and political power,
lead to increasing inequalities and stratification both across and within
countries
• SSP3: Regional Rivalry – resurgent nationalism, concerns about
competitiveness and security, and regional conflicts push countries to
increasingly focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues.
• SSP2: Middle of the road – social, economic, and technological trends do
not shift markedly from historical patterns
• SSP1: Sustainability – The world shifts gradually, but pervasively, toward a
more sustainable path, emphasizing more inclusive development that
respects perceived environmental boundaries.
Carbon dioxide emissions
Where are we headed?
 More over land; more in the
Northern Hemisphere; more where
there is currently snow and ice
What does
4 degrees Probably equivalent to about 5-6
Degrees in Vietnam
Centigrade
mean?
 Where is it 10°F Warmer
“on the average?”

Annual average temperature Hanoi: 23.6 C

Annual average temperature Ho Chi Minh City: 27.0 C Denver → Amarillo

Difference: 3.4 C Grand Junction →
Tucson
Illinois → Mississippi
So what?
Discussion question

• QUESTION:
What would you guess are the most
important impact categories
associated with rising global mean
surface temperature and the
associated changes in regional
climate?
Nordhaus’s philosophy on impacts

From "Climate Casino"

Copyright © 2013 by William Nordhaus
Key impacts

• Farming Managed systems

• Health risks
Unmanaged systems

• Rising sea levels

• Ocean acidification
• Hurricane intensification
• Damage to wildlife and
natural ecosystems
Managed systems benefit
more from adaptation and
technological change
Ocean-related impacts

1. Sea level rise

2. Ocean acidification
Potential sea level rise from ice sheets
Greenland Ice Sheet

• Size of Western Europe;

1.2 miles thick on average

• Enough water to raise

global sea level by 7 meters
West Antarctic Ice Sheet

• Enough water to raise

global sea level by 5 meters
Potential SLR from all land-based ice?
Potential SLR from all land-based ice?

70 meters

BUT . . .
Lots of inertia!
SLR forecast this century in AR6
Forecast to 2300 in AR6
Interactive map
Costs of Emission Reduction
Costs are falling
Source: Gillingham and Stock
The origins of climate change in “market failure”
Market failure
Correction requires
government, but no global
authority with power