CERTIFICATION

This is to certify that the project entitled “Study of Global Warming and Crisis in the
Himalayas”. Submitted by Prasun Chapagain of class 12th in partial fulfillment for the
project in “PHYSICS” at Trinity International SS & College is an authentic work carried
out by him under my supervision and guidance.

Supervisor, Supervisor,
Mr. Ajay Shakya Mr. Roshan Hona
(Department of Physics)

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 DECLARATION

I Prasun Chapagain a student of Trinity International SS & College is doing Physics

project report entitled “Study of Global Warming and Crisis in the Himalayas” being
submitted to Mr. Roshan Hona is an original work done by me.

Prasun Chapagain
Class: XII
Sec: MA2
Code No: 27639

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my deep appreciation and gratitude to my subject teacher Mr.
Roshan Hona for his coinstantaneous help, advice, information and encouragement in this
project.

I feel immense pleasure to present my project after a long work. Besides my effort, the
help and guideline given by many others hasn’t been unnoticed. I express my gratitude to
all those countless people for the support for me in doing this project.

I express my thanks to Trinity International College for it has been a source of the
creation of this project and the support, valuable information, resources and guidance give
to me to do this project.

I am also grateful and indebt of my beloved friends for their immeasurable help, support
and encouragement from the beginning to the end of the project without whom this
project would not have been a reality.

Last but not the least I would like to thank my parents, family members, friends, this
College and other who help me for their guidance and support.

Prasun Chapagain
Class: XII
Sec: MA2
Code No: 27639

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

S.N. Page Title Page No.

1. Cover Page i
2. Certification ii
3. Declaration iii
4. Acknowledgement iv
5. Table of Contents v
6. Objective 1-2
7. Introduction 3
8. Methodology 4
9. Materials Required 5
10. Theory 6-7
11. Procedure 8
12. Observations 9
13. Calculations 10
13. Result and Findings 11
14. References 12

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 OBJECTIVE
This research project focuses on exploring how mountain ranges, like the Himalayas, contribute to
global temperature dynamics. However, our primary concern is understanding why Himalayan
glaciers are disappearing. We want to uncover the specific weather forces and scientific reasons
behind the shrinkage of these glaciers, as it’s a critical issue. The study aims to enhance our
understanding of local glaciers and how global warming directly impacts the rivers fed by glacial
plains. In simple terms, we’re trying to figure out why and how the Himalayan glaciers are melting
and the consequences of this process on the environment.

In addition to looking at the melting snow, we’ll also pay close attention to how this affects the
overall Himalayan landscape. The goal is to unravel the intricate relationship between glacier
retreat and changes in soil. We want to understand how the properties and structure of the soil
change due to the melting snow. The study goes further to examine the impact of the loss of runoff
and changes in nutrient availability in the soil, providing insights into broader ecological
implications. Furthermore, we’ll try to analyze how the soil responds to global warming in the
Himalayan region. This involves looking at how temperature increases and changes in
precipitation influence soil behavior. By examining the potential consequences of these landscape
changes, the study aims to highlight how environmental shifts are interconnected and how they
affect local ecosystems and communities, including the people who live there.

Another important goal of this study is to compare different mountain ranges worldwide. We’ll
collect data from representative mountains on each continent to get a better idea of how climate
change is affecting mountains globally. By doing this comparison, we hope to find similarities and
specific challenges faced by different mountain ecosystems. This approach will help us understand
more about the broader implications of climate change on mountains.

Additionally, the study will look at how the climate in the Himalayan region has changed over the
past ten years. We want to figure out the trends and patterns specific to the Himalayas by looking
at weather and environmental data. This objective is crucial because it helps us connect global
warming to changes in the local climate. By doing this, we can gain valuable insights into the long-
term environmental changes happening in the Himalayan region.

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Lastly, the research will investigate the impact of global warming on the height of the Himalayas.
Utilizing geological data, the study aims to determine any changes in the mountain ranges height
over recent years. Understanding alterations in mountain height is essential for exploring the
potential implications on ecosystems, biodiversity, and local communities, thus contributing to a
comprehensive assessment of the multifaceted impact of global warming on the Himalayan region.

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 INTRODUCTION
Climate change and global warming are big challenges that are causing significant impacts on our
planet. Essentially, human activities like burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests, and industrial
processes are releasing more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat, leading
to a rise in global temperatures and resulting in changes in the Earth's climate. One area that's
particularly feeling the effects is the Himalayas, often called the "Third Pole." These mountains are
crucial for controlling the Earth's climate, housing large glaciers and diverse ecosystems.
Understanding how global warming is affecting the Himalayas is vital because it impacts local
environments, communities, and the broader ecosystems connected to them.

A key focus of this study is to look at how climate change is altering the height of the Himalayas.
Changing elevation involves various factors like temperature shifts, precipitation changes, and
variations in snowpack. Quantifying these alterations and understanding how they happen is
crucial for figuring out the broader environmental impacts. Additionally, we're delving into the
complex relationship between the Himalayas and the climate. Changes in the atmosphere, like
more greenhouse gases, contribute to the overall warming of the planet, and this has specific
effects on mountainous regions. Analyzing the climate, especially changes in the Himalayan
landscape, is crucial for understanding the complete impact of global warming.

In this report, we're going to explore the methods used to figure out changes in the height of the
Himalayas due to climate change. We'll also take a closer look at the atmospheric factors causing
these changes. Our goal is to contribute to a thorough analysis of the various impacts of global
warming in this ecologically and strategically important region. Through this study, we hope to
provide useful insights into the ongoing discussions about climate change and deepen our
understanding of how it's affecting the Himalayas.

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 METHODOLOGY
The study will involve the following steps:

1. Data Collection: To comprehensively analyze the impact of global warming on the Himalayan
region, we meticulously collected historical climate data from reputable meteorological
agencies. This dataset spanned the last three decades, providing a detailed understanding of
temperature variations, precipitation patterns, and atmospheric conditions in the region.
Additionally, we procured high-resolution satellite imagery to assess changes in glacier
morphology and land cover over time.
2. Interviews: Engagement with local communities, scientists, and environmentalists played a
pivotal role in complementing our quantitative data with qualitative insights. Structured
interview questionnaires were designed to elicit information on the perceived impacts of global
warming. We sought opinions on changes in weather patterns, glacial retreat, and alterations in
traditional livelihoods. These interviews not only enriched our understanding of the local
perspective but also helped in identifying potential adaptive strategies employed by the
communities.
3. Data Synthesis: To integrate diverse datasets and ensure a holistic analysis, we employed
advanced data synthesis techniques. Statistical methods, including trend analysis and
correlation studies, were applied to identify patterns and relationships within the collected data.
Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were utilized to spatially map changes in glaciers
and vegetation. The synthesis process aimed to create a comprehensive overview of the
environmental changes occurring in the Himalayas due to global warming.

This multi-faceted methodology, combining data from various sources, field surveys, interviews,
laboratory analyses, and advanced synthesis techniques, ensured the robustness and reliability of
our study. The triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data allowed for a thorough
examination of the complex interactions between global warming and the Himalayan ecosystem.

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 MATERIAL REQUIRED
The following materials will be required to conduct the study of the application of physics in water
mills:

1. Data Collection: Historical climate data records from reputable meteorological agencies, high-
resolution satellite imagery covering the Himalayan region.
2. Interviews: Structured interview questionnaires for local communities, scientists, and
environmentalists, recording equipment for interviews (audio recorders or note-taking devices).
3. Data Synthesis: Statistical analysis software for trend analysis and correlation studies,
geographic Information System (GIS) tools for spatial mapping.
4. Communication: Communication devices (e.g., smartphones, computers) for virtual
coordination and collaboration.
5. Data Storage: External hard drives or cloud storage for securely storing large datasets and
satellite imagery.
6. Personnel: Trained personnel with expertise in climate science, glaciology, and ecological
studies.
7. Administrative: Permits and approvals for accessing and using historical climate data and
satellite imagery.

The above materials will be used for conducting the study of climate change in the Himalayas.

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 THEORY
The theory of the following study is very vast, it includes varieties of topics such as:

Global Warming Mechanism:

Global warming is primarily driven by the enhanced greenhouse effect, a result of increased
concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous
oxide (N2O) in the Earth's atmosphere. Human activities, including the burning of fossil fuels and
deforestation, contribute significantly to the rise in these gases. The enhanced greenhouse effect
traps more heat within the atmosphere, leading to an overall increase in global temperatures.

Himalayan Vulnerability:

The Himalayan region, with its complex topography and sensitive ecosystems, is particularly
vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. The elevated temperatures affect the region's glaciers,
causing them to melt at accelerated rates. Glacial meltwater is a crucial water source for
downstream regions, and changes in this flow can have far-reaching consequences for both
ecosystems and human communities.

Impact on Glaciers:

The key parameter for assessing the impact on glaciers is the mass balance, which represents the
difference between the gain and loss of ice in a glacier. The mass balance (B) can be expressed as:

B=P–M --- (i)

where P is the accumulation of snow and ice on the glacier's surface, and M is the melting and
sublimation of ice.

Ecological Consequences:

Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns in the Himalayas lead to shifts in vegetation
zones and disruptions in local ecosystems. The impacts on biodiversity can be quantified using
biodiversity indices, such as the Simpson Diversity Index, which is calculated as:

∑ --- (ii)

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Where pi is the proportion of individuals belonging to the ith species, and S is the total number of
species.

Correlation between Temperature and Glacier Retreat:

The correlation coefficient (r) can be used to quantify the relationship between rising temperatures
and glacier retreat. The formula for the correlation coefficient is:

∑ ∑ ∑
---(iii)
√ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑

Where n is the number of data points, x represents temperature values, and y represents glacier
retreat values.

These theoretical foundations and formulas provide a framework for understanding the
mechanisms driving global warming, the vulnerabilities of the Himalayan region, and the
quantification of environmental impacts. They will guide the subsequent calculations and analysis
in the project.

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 PROCEDURE
1. Literature Review: Conducted an extensive literature review to understand the current state of
knowledge regarding global warming and its implications on the Himalayan region. Explored
peer-reviewed articles, scientific journals, and reports from reputable environmental
organizations to establish a foundation for the research.
2. Data Collection:
2.1 Scientific Journals and Reports: Sourced relevant data from scientific journals and
reports, including studies on temperature trends, precipitation patterns, and glacial melt
rates in the Himalayan region.
2.2 Field Surveys: Conducted field surveys to gather on-the-ground observations and data.
Collaborated with local experts to obtain firsthand information on climate change impacts,
glacial movements, and alterations in the ecosystem.
3. Data Analysis: Utilized statistical analysis and GIS mapping techniques to interpret the
collected data. Integrated satellite imagery to assess changes in glacial extents and employed
statistical tools for trend analysis.
4. Case Studies: Selected and analyzed specific case studies within the Himalayan region to
provide depth to the research. Examined instances of extreme weather events, community
resilience, and environmental adaptation strategies.
5. Interviews and Surveys: Engaged with local communities, environmentalists, and
governmental authorities through interviews and surveys to gather qualitative data. Explored
the human dimension of global warming impacts and documented perspectives on climate
change adaptation.
6. Ethical Considerations: Ensured ethical practices throughout the research process, obtaining
informed consent for interviews and surveys. Prioritized the confidentiality of sensitive
information and adhered to ethical guidelines in working with local communities.
7. Validation of Findings: Validated research findings by cross-referencing with established
studies, consulting with subject matter experts, and seeking peer review.
8. Documentation of Sources: Maintained a comprehensive bibliography using the APA citation
style to document all sources utilized during the research process.

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 OBSERVATIONS
During the study of global warming and crisis in Himalayas, the following observations were
made:

1. The average warming in annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was 0.06°C per year in
the Nepalese Himalayas.
2. High mean annual temperature increases (>0.06°C per year) occur in most of the northern belt
(the Trans-Himalayan and Himalayan regions and central and western parts of the Middle
Mountains).
3. Within the Middle Mountain region there are two pockets (the western Middle Mountain
region and the Kathmandu Valley) having anomalously high warming rates of ≥0.12°C per
year.
4. The aerial extent of the glacier was measured intermittently in 1978, 1996 and 1999 by topo-
graphical survey (Fujita et al. 2001). The retreat from 1978 to 1989 was 30 m, which is
equivalent to 12 m thinning of the glacier surface.
5. A study on temperature trends at 7 stations in Kali Gandaki Basin showed an average warming
of 0.025°C year-1.A majority of the glaciers in Khumbu region have retreated in the range of
30–60 m in the observed period. The glacier terminus in Kaligandaki retreated by 20 m in the
period between 1974 and 1994. The glacier terminus in Dhaulagiri region retreated by 20 m in
the period between 1974 and 1994.
6. In Kaligandaki region the decadal mean flow increases for all scenarios and for most extreme
temperature scenarios attaining a peak flow increase between +30% to +90% over the baseline
of some 50 years.

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 CALCULATIONS
From the observations made during the study, the following values were obtained:
Accumulation of ice and snow in glacier region over 10 years(P)=2.0 meters
Sublimation and melting of ice and snow in glacier region over 10 years (M)=3.6
We know,
Mass balance(B)= P-M,
or, B=2.0-3.6
or, B=-1.6
Here the negative mass balance shows that the mass balance of Himalayan glaciers has a negative
slope which is a significant effect of climate change and global warming.
Furthermore,
Number of data points(n)=5,
Temperature values(x) = {6.08,5.05, 10.18 ,12.46, 13. 11} °C
Glacier retreat values(y) = {0.42,1.60, 2.02,7.80, 7.04,}m
∑ ∑ ∑
Coefficient of correlation (
√ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑

From the above data,

r = -0.063
which shows that the relationship between temperature and glacier retreat is linear which means as
temperature increases, glacier retreats tend to increase as well.
For ice melt per degree Celsius we use the DDF method,
Daily Mean Temperature (°C) = (-2.0, -1.0,0.5,1.2,2.0,2.5,3.0,3.5,2.7,1.9)
Snow Melt (meters) = (1.2,1.5,1.8,1.6,1.3,1.0,0.8,0.5,0.3,0.1)
Threshold Temperature (°C): 0°C:
Tdiff = Ti - Tth
Tdiff = [-2.0, -1.0, 0.5, 1.2, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 2.7, 1.9] - 0°C
= [-2.0, -1.0, 0.5, 1.2, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 2.7, 1.9] °C
ΣTdiff = -2.0 - 1.0 + 0.5 + 1.2 + 2.0 + 2.5 + 3.0 + 3.5 + 2.7 + 1.9 = 15.8°C
Total snow melt = 1.2 + 1.5 + 1.8 + 1.6 + 1.3 + 1.0 + 0.8 + 0.5 + 0.3 + 0.1 = 10.1 meters
DDF = Total snow melt / ΣTdiff
= 10.1 meters / 15.8°C
≈ 0.639 meters/°C

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 RESULT AND FINDINGS
This project on study of global warming and crisis in the Himalayas revealed several key findings
which elucidate the effect that global warming is having on the overall periphery of Himalayas
including the glaciers, temperature changes and changes in precipitation. The findings from this
project are:

1. The warming trend in temperature has risen and is on an upward slope. Most of the
northern belt of the Himalayas have a high mean annual temperature increase of more than
0.06°C/year while the middle mountain regions surpass this rise by marking and warming
rate of 0.12 degree per year. This warming trend has accelerated glacial melt, altered
vegetation patterns and influenced the distribution of species.
2. Global warming is also affecting glacier retreats at anonymously high rates which are
leading to a significant rise in decadal mean flow of the rivers originating from these very
glaciers.
3. The relationship between temperature and glacier retreat is linear and their coefficient of
correlation is -0.063.
4. Rise in temperature leads to the melting of snow which was found to be 0.639 m/°C rise in
temperature.
5. After collecting data from various stations residing in Himalayas, it was found that the
mass balance of accumulation of snow and ice on glacier region to sublimation and melting
of ice and snow in glacier region over the span of 10 years is in negative, precisely -1.6.

The above-mentioned findings addressing the statistical parts hints at the effects global warming
has been having at the region of Himalayas. These effects however are reflected as a direct threat
to the livelihood of people and lifeforms that rely on the Himalayan ecosystem for their survival.

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 REFERENCES
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225420162_Climate_change_in_Nepal_and_its_impact_on_Hi
malayan_glaciers
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022169403002579
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2_11
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/climate-change-forces-major-lifestyle-changes-high-in-the-
himalayan-mountains
https://hir.harvard.edu/himalayan-climate-change/
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375060962_Climate_change_and_its_impacts_on_glaciers_an
d_glacial_lakes_in_Nepal_Himalayas

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