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Elizabeth C. Verna, MD, MS,1 Charles Connelly,2 Lorna M. Dove, MD, MPH,1 Patricia Adem, MD,3
Nikolina Babic, PhD,4 James Corsetti, MD, PhD,5 James Faix, MD,6 Joshua A. Hayden, PhD,7
Mark Lifshitz, MD,8 Brie Stotler,2 Zhezhen Jin, PhD,9 Sumit Mohan, MD, MPH,10,11 Jean C. Emond, MD,1
Eldad A. Hod, MD,2 and Alexander Kratz, MD, PhD2
Background. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score–based liver transplant allocation was implemented as
a fair and objective measure to prioritize patients based upon disease severity. Accuracy and reproducibility of MELD is
an essential assumption to ensure fairness in organ access. We hypothesized that variability in laboratory methodology
between centers could impact allocation scores for individuals on the transplant waiting list. Methods. Aliquots of 30
patient serum samples were analyzed for creatinine, bilirubin, and sodium in all transplant centers within United Network
for Organ Sharing (UNOS) region 9. Descriptive statistics, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), and linear mixed-effects
regression were used to determine the relationship between center, bilirubin, and calculated MELD-sodium (MELD-Na)
score. Results. The mean MELD-Na score per sample ranged from 14 to 38. The mean range in MELD-Na per sample
was 3 points, but 30% of samples had a range of 4–6 points. Correlation plots and intraclass correlation coefficient analy-
sis confirmed bilirubin interfered with creatinine, with worsening agreement in creatinine at high bilirubin levels. Center and
bilirubin were independently associated with creatinine reported in mixed-effects models. Unbiased hierarchical clustering
suggested that samples from specific centers have consistently higher creatinine and MELD-Na values. Conclusions.
Despite implementation of creatinine standardization, centers within a single UNOS region report clinically significant dif-
ferences in MELD-Na on an identical sample, with differences of up to 6 points in high MELD-Na patients. The bias in
MELD-Na scores based upon center choice within a region should be addressed in the current efforts to eliminate dispari-
ties in liver transplant access.
(Transplantation 2020;104: 1396–1402).
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<zdoi;10.1097/TP.0000000000003031>
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1398 Transplantation ■ July 2020 ■ Volume 104 ■ Number 7 www.transplantjournal.com
stepwise increase in the bilirubin threshold at which sam- The overall mean creatinine for the samples was 2.1 mg/
ples were included in the analysis. dL (range: 0.7–4.6 mg/dL), with a mean measured creati-
A linear mixed-effects model was then utilized to evalu- nine from 0.99 to 3.95 mg/dL (Table 1). The overall mean
ate the impact of center, interfering substances (bilirubin), bilirubin for the samples was 13.9 mg/dL (range: 0.4–
the interaction between center and bilirubin on measured 47 mg/dL), with a mean measured bilirubin ranging from
creatinine using SAS v9.04 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC). 1 to 40 mg/dL.
Heatmaps and hierarchical clustering were performed The mean calculated MELD-Na per sample ranged
using R (v3.1.1; heatmap.2), using default Euclidean meas- from 14 to 39 (Figure 1, Table 1). The range in calculated
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ures to obtain distance matrix, and complete agglomera- MELD-Na per sample (difference between the maximum
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tion method for clustering, to assess center-based bias in and minimum values) varied by 1–6 points, with an aver-
measured creatinine and MELD-Na score.9 age of 3 MELD-Na points (Table 2). Overall, 30% of sam-
Finally, to evaluate the impact of changes in MELD-Na ples had a range of ≥4 MELD-Na points.
score on access to transplantation, data from the Scientific
Registry of Transplant Recipients of adult liver transplant Impact of Center and Bilirubin on Creatinine
candidates listed between June 2013 (when the Share 35 Measurements
rule was implemented in organ allocation) and February As creatinine is heavily weighted in the MELD-Na
2017 were analyzed. The Share 35 policy was imple- score, and there is a known impact of interfering sub-
mented to further prioritize liver transplant candidates stances including bilirubin on measured creatinine level,
with the highest risk of death without transplant (those additional analysis was performed specifically examin-
with MELD-Na scores ≥35) to receive offers from within ing the impact of center and bilirubin level on creati-
the entire UNOS region rather than only the local donor nine results. Using results from a gold-standard test with
service area. The proportion of patients transplanted minimal bilirubin interference on creatinine levels, cor-
within 30 days of listing at each MELD-Na, nationally and relation plots of bilirubin versus the percent difference in
in region 9, was tabulated. Unadjusted logistic regression creatinine level between the test and gold-standard result
was performed to estimate the odds ratio for transplant at for each sample are plotted to illustrate the bilirubin
each MELD-Na score. interference on creatinine results (Figure 2). As bilirubin
values increased, creatinine values were biased lower for
RESULTS some assay platforms.
The impact of rising bilirubin concentrations on esti-
Reproducibility of Creatinine Measurements With mates of creatinine concentration was also demonstrable
NIST Standards by the decreasing ICC for creatinine across the sites as
The results of creatinine measurements using the NIST the instances with lower bilirubin concentrations reported
standards are summarized in Figure S1 (SDC, http://links. were excluded (Figure 3A) such that for samples with a
lww.com/TP/B838). For sample 1, mean results at the 8 sites bilirubin above 33, the ICC for creatinine had dropped
ranged from 0.795 to 0.896 mg/dL (coefficient of variability to 0.86.
= 1.8%). At 3 out of the 8 sites, all results were outside of Finally, the impact of center and bilirubin concentra-
the allowable deviation. For sample 2, average results ranged tion on measured creatinine level was evaluated using
from 3.717 to 4.02 mg/dL (coefficient of variability = 1.0%). a multivariable linear mixed-effects model (Table 3).
For this sample, all results at 2 sites were out of the range In this model, center, bilirubin, and the interaction
considered allowable by the NIST. Only 1 site (site 7) was between center and bilirubin were significantly predic-
within the allowable range for both NIST samples on all tests. tive of creatinine level. The magnitude of this effect was
dependent on the center’s choice in assay methodology
Individual Assay and MELD-Na Variability Between as shown by the parameter estimates for the interaction
Sites term (bilirubin × center), with centers using assay plat-
The overall ICC was moderate for creatinine (0.95; 95% form D (centers 3, 4, and 5) having the most significant
confidence interval, 0.90-0.98) and relatively weak for bili- effect of bilirubin on creatinine measurements (Table 3
rubin (0.89; 0.83-0.94) and sodium (0.88; 0.81-0.94). and Figure 2B).
TABLE 1.
Summary of mean (range) assay results from the 8 laboratory sites
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FIGURE 1. Distribution of sodium to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD-Na) scores by individual sample.
TABLE 2. 2 for patients with the lowest bilirubin quartile (<7 mg/
Range in MELD-Na score per sample dL) but 4 in patients with bilirubin in the highest quartile
(>20 mg/dL).
Range MELD-Na score per sample Number (%) The impact of center on MELD-Na score is also dis-
1 4 (13) played by unbiased hierarchical clustering of MELD-Na
2 9 (30) scores and creatinine (Figure 4). Sites with identical plat-
3 8 (27) forms and methods for obtaining creatinine levels, such as
4 3 (10) 3D1 and 4D1, clustered together. Site 5D2 used the same
5 4 (13) platform but an alternative method, resulting in decluster-
6 2 (7) ing from sites 3 and 4. In addition, it is clear from this
analysis that sites using platform A have the highest cre-
MELD-Na, sodium to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease. atinine values in almost all samples, with site 8 having the
highest MELD-Na score in 50% of cases.
Impact of Center on MELD-Na Score
As a result of the different relationships between biliru- Impact of MELD-Na Score on Access to Transplant
bin level and creatinine measurement interaction, there is The differences in MELD-Na scores observed for
greater variability in MELD-Na score as bilirubin increases individual patient samples between centers may have a
(Figure 3B). The average range of MELD-Na scores was substantial impact on access to transplant. A change in
FIGURE 2. Using results from a gold-standard test with minimal bilirubin interference on creatinine levels, correlation plots of bilirubin vs
the percent difference in creatinine level between the gold-standard and test result for each sample are plotted to illustrate the effect of
total bilirubin interference on creatinine. The number coding for each site in the legend represents the anonymized performing laboratory
(1–8), the letter (A–E) represents the instrument platform the laboratory utilized to obtain the results, and the subscript (1–2) represents
the methodology used to perform creatinine. The Pearson R2 and P are provided. A, Two sites using different analyzer platforms (1C and
2B) for performing creatinine with different relationships between bilirubin and percent difference in creatinine. B, Three sites all using the
same platform (D) with site 5D2 using a different assay and exhibiting a more substantial effect of bilirubin on creatinine measurements.
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1400 Transplantation ■ July 2020 ■ Volume 104 ■ Number 7 www.transplantjournal.com
DISCUSSION
In this study, we identified highly significant differences
in MELD-Na allocation ranking due to the variation in
laboratory methodology between centers. This effect was
most pronounced at the highest scores, resulting in highly
significant differences in expected organ access between
individuals with the same actual severity of liver disease
in a given zone of distribution. This finding is concerning
because MELD-Na–based liver transplant allocation was
instituted to eliminate subjective clinical criteria from the
rank order on the waitlist.
FIGURE 3. Impact of bilirubin on creatinine variability. A, Intraclass
correlation coefficients (ICCs) for creatinine by increasing bilirubin In recent years, the literature has been replete with
level. B, Boxplots of range in calculated sodium to the Model studies concerning disparities in access to transplanta-
for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD-Na) scores per sample by tion driven by factors other than liver disease severity. All
bilirubin quartile displaying the increased variability in MELD-Na of these studies have focused on the effects of geography
as bilirubin rises.
on access to transplantation, and the bias in distribution
based on geography. In March 2000, the US Department
of Health and Human Services promulgated the Final
TABLE 3. Rule, which instructs that allocation policies shall not be
Mixed-effects model to predict measured creatinine level based on the candidate’s place of residence or place of list-
ing except to the extent needed to satisfy other regulatory
Predictor Coefficient SE P requirements. Our work suggests that without standardi-
Center zation of MELD-Na determination, the second pillar of
1 −0.140 0.040 <0.001 the final rule, distribution in decreasing order of medical
2 0.072 0.041 0.08 urgency, is not being met either. While eliminating geo-
3 0.081 0.040 0.04 graphic disparities in MELD-Na at transplant has been the
4 −0.005 0.040 0.90 focus of current efforts to improve fairness, center-based
5 0.003 0.042 0.94 variability in laboratory platform and assay may create
6 −0.094 0.039 0.02 additional variability and bias within and between regions
7 −0.056 0.040 0.16 that should be considered in the current allocation debate.
8 Ref – – Within 8 laboratories in UNOS region 9, the mean
Total bilirubin 0.016 0.002 <0.001 range in calculated MELD-Na within single patient sam-
Total bilirubin × Center ples was 3 MELD-Na points, with one-third of samples
1 −0.006 0.002 0.01
with a range of 4 or more points. This variability spanned
the range in MELD scores from 14 to 39 but was the most
2 −0.006 0.003 0.02
pronounced in samples with high total bilirubin levels.
3 −0.021 0.002 <0.001
Almost a third of patients had a 4–6 point difference in
4 −0.016 0.002 <0.001
MELD-Na score, translating into an up to 50% change
5 −0.029 0.002 <0.001
in the probability of being transplanted in the subsequent
6 −0.004 0.002 0.08
30 days. Scores that straddle thresholds for changes in
7 −0.011 0.002 <0.001
sharing of organs, at both the high (MELD-Na >35) and
8 Ref – – low ranges (MELD-Na <15), could lead to dramatically
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© 2019 Wolters Kluwer Verna et al 1401
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FIGURE 4. Center-based bias in MELDNa, creatinine and total bilirubin. Heatmaps illustrating unbiased hierarchical clustering of (A)
sodium to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD-Na) scores, (B) creatinine at the participating sites, and (C) total bilirubin level.
Rows are ordered from lowest to highest mean bilirubin value. Green cells represent measured values with positive deviation from the
mean for the sample, while red represents a negative deviation. The number at the base of each column represents an anonymized
performing laboratory (1–8) and the letter (A–E) represents the instrument platform the laboratory utilized to obtain the results. The
subscript number represents the testing methodology used for creatinine on a given platform. The blue line running down each column
is a representation of the z score; deviations of this line represent movement away from the mean.
different access to transplant based upon laboratory tech- sites measured values outside expected values when test-
nique rather than upon the inherent risk of poor outcomes. ing NIST standards. In addition, these standards were not
While some variability in assay performance has been created with interfering substances such as bilirubin pre-
previously reported and is perhaps expected, this is the first sent in the sample. There is clearly a complex relationship
report in which significant bias is demonstrated between between the creatinine assay, the platform manufacturer,
centers within a UNOS region. The center where the serum and the interference of bilirubin on creatinine measure-
was assayed was significantly predictive of measured cre- ment such that simply requiring a specific creatinine assay
atinine level and calculated MELD-Na. Thus, individual may not completely eliminate this center-based effect.
patients may be given additional priority on the transplant Previous studies have also revealed that INR is a source of
waiting list based upon their center or laboratory facility variability in calculated MELD score.3,4 INR was not tested
rather than based upon their inherent risk of death with- in this present study as it cannot be run on residual serum
out transplant. As each of the MELD-Na components are samples. This is a limitation of the current analysis as varia-
also accounted for in the Scientific Registry of Transplant tion in INR between methodologies is significant, again with
Recipients risk adjustment model that is utilized to assess the highest variation in the high MELD patients. Given the
center performance, it is also possible that centers may be differing methodologies between the laboratories in region
inappropriately advantaged or disadvantaged on a regula- 9, this would likely have further increased the variability
tory basis when the laboratory measurements do not cor- in calculated MELD-Na. In addition, we acknowledge that
rectly reflect severity of disease. many outpatients on the waiting list get laboratories done
Creatinine measurement is clearly impacted by labo- at multiple laboratory facilities, often outside of their trans-
ratory platform and assay methodology as well as the plant center. We did not send samples to these additional
presence of interfering substances, including bilirubin.10 facilities, but this may add additional variability.
Bilirubin is a chromogen that causes a negative interfer- Despite standardization efforts for creatinine and INR
ence with creatinine measurements, usually resulting in reporting, these assays continue to perform poorly among
lower creatinine values. Several methods have been devel- patients with cirrhosis, and UNOS has never performed a
oped to overcome this interference, leading to different widespread quality control study to understand the impact
results depending upon the assay utilized.11,12 The impact of this variability on allocation. How to best address this
of creatinine assay variability on calculated MELD has center-based disparity is not straightforward. Any proposal
also been explored in European studies, where significant for standardization must consider the logistical complexity of
variation in measured creatinine across assay techniques thousands of patients having testing performed at hundreds
was documented, with increasing variability in patients or thousands of transplant centers and local laboratories on
with high bilirubin levels and MELD scores.13,14 a regular basis. Mandating uniform methodology for all 4
The national initiative to standardize creatinine meas- measures in the MELD-Na score or centralized testing in a
urements to NIST standards should have reduced the UNOS region or donor service area is also likely not feasible.
variability of MELD-Na scores. However, despite com- In this era of greater accountability and federal report-
pliance with this standardization protocol, many of the ing of laboratory-based measures, there is precedent for
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1402 Transplantation ■ July 2020 ■ Volume 104 ■ Number 7 www.transplantjournal.com
adjusting for variability due to laboratory methodol- 2. Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network/United Network for
Organ Sharing Liver and Intestinal Organ Transplantation Committee.
ogy. Reporting of serum albumin for patients on dialysis
Redesigning liver distribution. 2016. Available at https://optn.trans-
includes information on the method used15,16 to allow for plant.hrsa.gov/governance/public-comment/redesigning-liver-distri-
conversion of results to a common standard.17 However, bution. Accessed July 25, 2017.
to accurately determine the level of adjustment needed for 3. Trotter JF, Olson J, Lefkowitz J, et al. Changes in international normal-
each measure will require further studies. Finally, it has ized ratio (INR) and model for endstage liver disease (MELD) based on
selection of clinical laboratory. Am J Transplant. 2007;7:1624–1628.
also been proposed that standards with interfering sub- 4. Trotter JF, Brimhall B, Arjal R, et al. Specific laboratory method-
stances also be used to calibrate laboratory equipment,
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