DISC 203 Probability and Statistics

Quiz 2

Name: _____________________________________ Roll No: _________________________

1. [1 point] Are the following two events collectively exhaustive? Justify:

{All numbers between 1 and 9 divisible by 2}, {All numbers between 1 and 9 divisible by 3}

No, since 5 is between 1 and 9 but neither divisible by 2 nor 3

2. [1 point each] Two events, A and B, are independent, with 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.2 and 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.7.
a. Find 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.14
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)
, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) = (0.2)(0.7) = 0.14, 𝑠𝑜 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = = 0.2
0.7
b. Find 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) = (0.2)(0.7) = 0.14

3. [1 point each] Find a z-score, call it 𝑧0 , such that

a. 𝑃(𝑧 ≤ 𝑧0 ) = 0.28
𝑃(𝑧 ≤ 𝑧0 ) = 0.28 => 𝑃(0 < 𝑧 < 𝑧0 ) = 0.28 − 0.5 = − 0.32
Look up this area in the z-table 0.32, the corresponding z-score is 0.92

b. 𝑃(𝑧0 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 0.59) = 0.4773

𝑃(𝑧0 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 0.59) = 0.4773 => 𝑃(𝑧0 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 0) + 𝑃(0 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 0.59) = 0.4773
𝑃(0 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 0.59) = 0.2224, so 𝑃(𝑧0 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 0) = 0.4773 − 0.2224 = 0.2549
Look up this area in the z-table, the corresponding z-score = -0.69

4. [3 points] The probability that speeding is a cause of a fatal crash is .3. Furthermore, the probability that speeding and
missing a curve are causes of a fatal crash is .12. Given speeding is a cause of a fatal crash, what is the probability that the
crash occurred on a curve?

𝑆: 𝐶𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔

𝐶: 𝐶𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑖𝑠 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒
𝑃(𝐶∩𝑆) 0.12
𝑃(𝐶|𝑆) = 𝑃(𝑆) = 0.3 = 0.4

5. [3 points] Consider a double intrusion detection system with independent systems. If there is an intruder, system A
sounds an alarm with probability0.9, and system B sounds an alarm with probability 0.95. If there is no intruder, system
A sounds an alarm with probability 0.2, and system B sounds an alarm with probability 0.1. Now assume that the
probability of an intruder is 0.4. Also assume that under a given condition (intruder or not), systems A and B operate
independently. If both systems sound an alarm, what is the probability that an intruder is detected?

𝐴: 𝐴𝑙𝑎𝑟𝑚 𝐴 𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑠, 𝐵: 𝐴𝑙𝑎𝑟𝑚 𝐵 𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑠, 𝐼: 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑟

𝐺𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑜: 𝑃(𝐴|𝐼) = 0.9, 𝑃(𝐵|𝐼) = 0.95, 𝑃(𝐴|𝐼 𝑐 ) = 0.2, 𝑃(𝐵}𝐼 𝑐 ) = 0.1, 𝑃(𝐼) = 0.4
𝑆𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵|𝐼) = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐼)𝑃(𝐵|𝐼) = (0.9)(0.95) = 0.855
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐼) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵|𝐼)𝑃(𝐼) = (0.855)(0.4) = 0.342
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵|𝐼 𝑐 ) = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐼 𝑐 )𝑃(𝐵|𝐼 𝑐 ) = (0.2)(0.1) = 0.02
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐼 𝑐 ) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵|𝐼 𝑐 )𝑃(𝐼 𝑐 ) = (0.02)(0.6) = 0.012
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐼) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐼 𝑐 ) = (0.342) + (0.012) = 0.345
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐼) 0.342
𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦, 𝑃(𝐼 |𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) = = = 0.966
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.354
6. [3 points] The arrival time of requests to a Web server within each hour can be modeled by a uniform distribution.
Specifically, the number of seconds x from the start of the hour that the request is made is uniformly distributed between
0 and 3,600 seconds. Find the probability that a request is made to a Web server sometime during the last 15 minutes of
the hour.

1
𝑓(𝑥) = { 3600 }
𝑂𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
The last 15 minutes represent the last 900 seconds.
1 900
𝑃(2700 < 𝑥 < 3600) = (3600 − 2700) = = 0.25
3600 3600

7. [2 points each] The tolerance limits for a particular quality characteristic (e.g., length, weight, or strength) of a product
are the minimum and/or maximum values at which the product will operate properly. Tolerance limits are set by the
engineering design function of the manufacturing operation. The tensile strength of a particular metal part can be
characterized as being normally distributed with a mean of 25 pounds and a standard deviation of 2 pounds. The upper
and lower tolerance limits for the part are 30 pounds and 21 pounds, respectively. A part that falls within the tolerance
limits results in a profit of $10. A part that falls below the lower tolerance limit costs the company $2; a part that falls
above the upper tolerance limit costs the company $1. Find the company’s expected profit per metal part produced.
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝑥 = 𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑜𝑓 𝑎 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡. 𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑥 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜𝑚 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝜇 =
25 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜎 = 2. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑙𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 21 𝑎𝑛𝑑 30.
21−25
𝑃(𝑥 < 25) = 𝑃(𝑧 < 2 = 𝑃(𝑧 < −2) = 0.5 − 0.4772 = 0.0228
21−25 30−25
𝑃(21 < 𝑥 < 30) = 𝑃 ( 2
< 𝑧 < 2 ) = 𝑃(−2 < 𝑧 < −2.5) = 0.4772 + 0.4938 = 0.9710
30−25
𝑃(𝑥 > 30) = 𝑃(𝑧 > = 𝑃(𝑧 > 2.5) = 0.5 − 0.4938 = 0.0062
2
𝐸(𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡) = −$2(0.0228) + $10(0.9710) − $1(0.0062) = −$0.0456 + $9.71 − $0.0062 = $9.66

8. [1 point each] Millions of suburban commuters use the public transit system (e.g., subway trains) as an alternative to
the automobile. While generally perceived as a safe mode of transportation, the average number of deaths per week due
to public transit accidents is 5 (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2015).
a. Construct arguments both for and against the use of the Poisson distribution to characterize the number of deaths per
week due to public transit accidents.
For the number of deaths to follow Poisson distribution, we need to assume that the probability of death is the same
for any week. This assumption may not be valid based on the provided information, for instance, changes in weather
over the weeks may effect accidents, and thus, deaths.
Secondly, we also need to assume that the number of deaths per week is independent of any other week. This can
be assumed to be true.

b. For the remainder of this exercise, assume the Poisson distribution is an adequate approximation for x, the number of
deaths per week due to public transit accidents. Find 𝐸(𝑥) and the standard deviation of x.
𝐸(𝑥) = 𝜆 = 5, 𝜎 = √𝜆 = √5 = 2.2361

c. Based strictly on your answers to part b, is it likely that more than 12 deaths occur next week? Explain.
12−5
𝑧 = 2.2361 = 3.13. Since this is more than 3 standard deviations away from the mean, 12 deaths per week is highly
unlikely.

d. Find 𝑃(𝑥 > 12). Is this probability consistent with your answer to part c? Explain.
This requires finding probability of 𝑥 ≤ 12 and then using the rule
𝑃(𝑥 > 12) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 12) = 1 − 0.9979 = 0.0021
9. [2 points each] To help highway planners anticipate the need for road repairs and design future construction projects,
data are collected on the estimated volume and weight of truck traffic on specific roadways. In an experiment involving
repeated weighing of a 27,907-pound truck, it was found that the weights recorded by the weigh-in-motion equipment
were approximately normally distributed with a mean of 27,315 and a standard deviation of 628 pounds. It follows that
the difference between the actual weight and recorded weight, the error of measurement, is normally distributed with a
mean of 592 pounds and a standard deviation of 628 pounds.
a. What is the probability that the weigh-in-motion equipment understates the actual weight of the truck, i.e. the error of
measurement is positive.
We want to find the probability that the weigh-in-motion equipment understates the actual weight of the truck. So
we want to check whether the error of measurement is positive.
0−592
𝑃(𝑥 > 0) = 𝑃 (𝑧 > ) = 𝑃(𝑧 > −0.94) = 0.5 + 0.3264 = 0.8264
628

b. If a 27,907-pound truck was driven over the weigh-in-motion equipment 100 times, approximately how many times
would the equipment overstate the truck’s weight?
𝑃(𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡) = 1 − 0.8264 = 0.1736
For 100 measurements, approximately 100(0.1736) = 17.36 or 17 times the weight would be overstated.

c. What is the probability that the error in the weight recorded by the weigh-in-motion equipment for a 27,907-pound truck
exceeds 400 pounds?
400−592
𝑃(𝑥 > 400) = 𝑃 (𝑧 > 628 ) = 𝑃(𝑧 > −0.31) = 0.5 + 0.1217 = 0.6217