Climate change and Environmental sustainability

Anyway because you know how oil works gas or fossil fuels are produced from organic matter you know
that how long does it take to produce this and organic matter is actually that managing down and
compressed a lot in the middle picture of Forbes oil and gas and so on just take 60 million years now
how fast did we do we consume all of that more or less all of that oil and gas let's make it simple
basically it's about subscript for decrease in years and there you have factor in between the production
and consumption so everything that was removed from the atmosphere by segmenting down like leaves
and things like that from the atmosphere and took out the CO2 from the atmosphere and falls down and
get compressed form spoiled that took 66600 million years now we pump it up in 600 years making that
we burn it up 100,000 times faster than the need to produce is that possible for the atmosphere to
process all this CO2 which has been removed in 600 years I don't think so so already already shows that
we are probably there we go waiting burning specially maybe and 200 years or 200 years from now
maybe people say Bruins or something it's all kind of bad guesses probably that will look like that in a
few 100 years in the future from that anyway we have not another started with it we got very well so is it
so yes but now we have to turn back the situation and do something against because we know that it is
that you mention because we have all this energy available to build up knowledge to build computers
calculators think it's time to turn it this time we are also you talk about sustainability that we briefly
repeat maybe what you already know about sustainability but in the sense of environment environment
climate change can be defined in different levels and let's say the most generic level is the one from
broom plants which you know certainly which is also quite an old one so this before they this consortium
defined sustainability as the development that meets the needs of the present generation people
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs that's very generous
very good do you need to go further because we are looking into more specifics things talk about
environmental sustainability so let's look what we could do with this so I have to make my own definition
and that can do that at least in the same way especially if you are going to study and do your research
and also refine for yourself the CPU for the domain you are looking at so for example a transition process
that reduces greenhouse gas emission without compromising social justice completely natural resources
or harming the environment So what do we have here again like before we have some simple metrics
what is what is actually the quality that is you're talking about and what does it help to to maintain social
justice natural resources this is an example that I mentioned before when you were looking into your
own research you could specify something more more more detail here about building construction for
example so building practices should preserve natural ecosystems and reduce energy consumption and
improve military that could also be standardization specifically about the building sector and so on and
so on so I'm pretty sure that it's not too complicated we can't do that so you can look into how to
approach this sustainability and this is what we are going to look at today and then zoom in more and
more and more so in general in the general sense talk about sustainability when we want to mitigate the
climate problem or even mitigate risk that means we could we need to adapt and improve resilience um
this means we need to identify the workers and that's also something you need to do when you do your
research for drivers which indicators are there that you need to look at the relevant indicators for your
region and situation and indicators can be variables only variables like temperature or qualitative seems
like wealth justice it's also an indicator and within this indicator you need to go back further and look for
more indicators you can quantify your maybe or your main variable however many variables on my
understanding depends on how you look at it then we would like to assess the risk that's something I'm
not going to do it today but you might already know this it's a mix between mixture between hazard
nexpose to the hazard and the vulnerability within this exposure and that's going to be covered with
from chin I'm going to talk mainly about hazard today today or not once you have all this yeah you can
find your actions again start acting and that's pretty tough OK so we cannot give you a recipe but you can
give you concepts frameworks schemes and that's what you need to apply So what about the
background first question weather and climate and I want you to get later on some examples of better
phenomenon in time So what is the difference there are some generic differences between you need to
know that possible pizza talk about statements talk about statistical properties it's clear that plant
predictions which we refer to projections talk about kind of future we talked about so when you talk
about projections you look at this state huge climate in terms of statistical quantities of statistics of the
specific variables temperature what is the average temperature variance 5100 years from now for the
region and then you talk also if you're kind stacks sees asking client that's climate prediction and
planning are related to that there are some weather phenomenon that's really about local local
condition like rain when and how much it's going to rain what is the temperature curve for the next day
the next three days due to the chaotic um nature of the climate and weather system we cannot predict
whether force longer than let's say about 10 days and then it gets very quickly because of that weather
forecast is always made by running the right moment many many times and doing some so-called
assembles and then ensembles are averaged and that's going to be the final forecast and then there is
always something and that's certainly piece that is also incredibly in that projections and now please
keep some weather phenomena what is the weather phenomenon what does climate phenomena
weather phenomena we have all the right clear but maybe you have other interesting weather come on
from your own experience that's interesting very interesting it's interesting that you something where
you could also think oh wow this is it's me but it's very a difficult actually you then the next three minute
to you can make change or international variability those which are very happy heavy rainfalls anyway
but they rarely areas like you mentioned here in another frame has exceptional intensive rating periods
have never occurred occurred before then you ask yourself yeah that's that's so important to know the
real reason behind this correct measures if you think every thing that you encounter is this time change
you might not you might not take the correct actions to increase resilience and to that extremes or that
what is most often when it comes to climate change but there is still some care to be taken as I said yes
you know limit is of course nonlinear chaotic system planning system so we have better abilities we have
local regional differences that's referred to climatology that's also very important terminology you know
you don't know this yet yeah it's something that comes back local regional weather phenomena store we
have what no from experience and from certain people learn that since there is time systems driven
mainly by energy coming from the sun this creates circulation because of the whole fear that it's going to
start moving because of this energy that is coming from the sun but it's energies and transported create
secondary throws I in here I'm sorry create a local typical client and this is very characteristic for search
for the region where you have very strong regional differences and that's what we're getting through and
there is a greenhouse effect this greenhouse effect is there I mean you don't misunderstand greenhouse
effect the greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon otherwise we wouldn't have high temperatures up
on earth like that you know just you activities just because we nurses created force that earth balance
out of liberty forces the students to move to a higher temperature the radiation imbalance imbalance
that causes this global warming so we are talking about two important things you need to understand
global circulation driving client system and the time forcing that is alternative so this is the distribution of
radiation absorbed on the earth globe course along the equator the temperature is higher than towards
the poles that means you have a more energy source that can be used along the equator maybe you got
this another situation that's absolutely but in general system energy system go eat something balance so
they need as much solar radiation space coming in needs to that's actually shown later on she has and so
this looks this is the pattern of the global circulation in the atmosphere which is rather complicated so
this is due to again the the observations of excess absorption of solar radiation towards the equators
that creates updrafts of liquid air that creates and then the second important ingredient is that the
rotation of the earth so because of the rotation of the earth they're moving because the flow of air
through the atmosphere is median that patterns cells the other cells here which also creates the typical
directions of the movement average then some checks to be interested very much over but this is very
complicated word says Google so very long to do that so accurately to understand so well that we could
model it so climate models include all of that very detailed but let's first look at such income it looks on
the global scale we see really interesting economic arguments popping up here so also all these kind of
things are due to the uprising and the turning of the air flow due to the coriolis otherwise it wouldn't be
possible in which direction very phenomenal so this is the transport of the energy this have changes
influencing this and that go to the next slide something went wrong there is also a lot of energy
transported to the ocean those ocean currents that you see there either on surface or deep inside the
ocean underneath under search I mean he's broke is that reactions either at the top or underneath and
then the water is transferred very strong ocean current that moves from here and the button surface
down to this area and pops up here again and then comes back at the surface so there are huge belts
moving around of the earth and this is the majority of all that energy that is umm included in this whole
climatic system is transferred to the ocean that's also why these typhoons and things that are purring so
much over the oceans especially during the hurricane season because of this extremely warm water
that's the main driver of this heavy heavy weather go to repeat so the Scientology describes the weather
patterns so conditions causing such methods and obviously understand them you can also model them
and then look changes caused by what you have here for example classification I like that for for climate
assessment of extreme weather events any questions already mentioned this training is largely driven by
solar energy this is the systematic of these greenhouse effect umm which creates a balance between
incoming and outgoing radiation we are talking about time forcing already enforcing because 15 balance
or something then it has changed but the case there were no forces everything is bad is imbalanced but
the climate is equilibrium that means that the right radiation coming in sort yours is quote to the
radiation that is escaping either in shortwave reflection or in the long wave by emission but it would not
be no it was not along with this is big give me an example of the green campus where is it the
greenhouse is growing vegetables another one goodbye to the car why did why is it helping and
somebody would plain why his touching something you cannot and people you he says it's called visible
that it's because I don't have the spectrum is meeting with the people at 500 that's a great that's also
reflected by the loops so that's why you see three color is reflected by plants that's what you see around
the 50 nanometers until about 700 in the long run the entire dynamic is correct but then it continues the
statement to micrometers and so on and then certainly area we stopped seeing radiation at about 8:00
from the bank but there is much further away there is a spectral region where the earth is for radiation
that's the infrared radiation 1415 micrometers so 1000 times longer with likely there's very small so and
what is that radiation can you huh it's important to understand this this this thing OK it has an idea how
we can detect long waves microwave thermal regulation so it's transformed from short length
absorption that you mentioned of the seats in the car heats up the car seat and then it emits in a
different longer way frame with the incorrect wavelength but that kind of scares to the window because
the window is a shield for that so the only thing we can do is to be absorbed again the roof the window
itself is absorbing the system itself it's exactly the same here the clouds they're supporting part of it but
fortunately there is a small window where the long way that's why call thematic system is technically a
certain temperature which is much higher than other planets where there is no greenhouse effect makes
that out average temperatures in in 15° C because of this whole flow because of the screen and this is
only because there is a small window available for the long way to escape not too big not too small to
keep the temperature at this 15° average temperature um now 90s through something which yeah
reduces the makes this window smaller covers system by pink or let's say it's because it actually makes
this this this this window sticker and thicker so that next you can't think of a color it's text keeps more
and more information that's the imbalance and that's that's that's what we call it forcing which pushes
the earths climate to an equilibrium temperatures show you that no also something 2020 really so this
gets a little bit more complicated so we are looking into the time you need between 1970 and 2018 and
look at the accumulated integrated rate forcing that means the excess energy has been accumulated
because of this window that gets smaller and smaller and so because the forcing is increasing constantly
that this energy is also increasing that is kept and pushes the system out of balance and this is the total
amount of energy in the second jewel to huge number so exceedingly that is in the atmosphere and
should actually not be there because if there would be no because there is no excess energy in that so
this is actually the green further forcing of human activity on the greenhouse effect and that's caused by
greenhouses see we should always forcings and enterprise and indirect who knows what the interest
indirect forcing is Alex's first talk about the direct they're also the typical greenhouse gases that most
prominently carbon dioxide but also also methane there is putting gas other gases compound sulfuric
compounds actors are polluters but also we also and floor carbon compounds that we use for medical
tools for example for us that's very strong remove that what about meeting him tell something about
carbon dioxide or methane intake specific but also in farming so that's the house that's maybe the
especially the the those are let's say the quickest certainly comes to me saying and that's why we should
also change our food patterns events production OK you should not neglect so we know that inside is by
far not so abundant as CO2CO2 we create by burning pain source of CO2 plus our fuel combustion and
then but why is he saying so important but what about the strength of the gas is super important so
that's what I said before other than there are fewer compounds compounds that are super efficient
greenhouse gases but of course there are not so of them that they would actually move up and that's
also what you see here the amount of very large meeting is very large and that's a really cause of
concern because it has a very strong even much stronger effect than so on and land use it's also a what
you want this any idea I just change mainly So what is what could be the reason for this is a force why
does it force the climate system to change it's not directly like the greenhouse gas changing the the the
greenhouse effect so what is going emphasis like atmosphere interactions between word you go to the
right probably maybe the strongest effect so if you change surface by cutting the to the right four they
reflect certain amount of radiation reflect a lot others and yet at the same time they create two and
things like that that's another positive effect but if you put this away then color changes completely stop
this absorbs information so the energy balance is disturbed because of the perfection of so that's very
strong concern also with the language changed and so now we are talking around going to or feedback
so in their forcing because it changes the optical properties of clouds from the release certain aerosols
smaller and your the clouds are formed in different ways there there will even change in half but that
amount is going to change it's incredible but this is a very strong very very very super important for
climate modeling which is very difficult to model because the clouds are so that's power is never the
same there's no cloud which is the same clouds are always very homogeneous hydro hypo elements in
which have strong influence on these reflection like that but let's just by the way aerosols are also very
beautiful wrong so don't don't think that there are too much if you release more aerosol I have to go into
more detail what's my study to tell you chief so when you look into the formation of clouds and the
release more particles in the cloud it's finally there are more droplets in the cloud and the cloud is more
people more white right that means more radiation will reflect radiation you remember them the
greenhouse gas picture is short cannot be absorbed from the surface would be do also gases or create
suit or other mechanical or aerosols it will always change either the reflection or due to indirect effects
or even through direct effects if you release very big amount of suit in industrial areas the fear could
start heading that way so extermination and increases the temperature so that's also a positive but
something very impressive the lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is about 150 years before it is
somehow absorbed by education or sort of the ocean and so on it's a long time what about aerosols
they are within the atmosphere for about four weeks and then they are exchanged so an interesting
experiment think of we would stop it would freeze or maybe like a corona hand but much more that we
would reduce the aerospace Commission drastically and we would wait for this but what happened this
indirect effect would probably drop considerably so ohh wait so it would heat up immediate so it it could
it could actually have a strong effect which is only theoretically possible because we cannot remove the
arrows or stop committing errors so much because it's indirect effect OK that's the part yeah take away
for this part then the system is highly nonlinear which is the reason why phenomena are different and
why

 it's an act we now suspect this an apple phenomenon unfortunately brings to the balance or
forces radiative forcings are changing the balance and push the system to what love you the
regional weather patterns keep that in mind are especially in temporary temporary variable that
is seasonality for example and interactual annual variation which is very good for many many
years and also circle each especially due to the ocean and circulation alter only over many many
years variability and and patterns of systems changing future mission future radio yes you know
that probably you need to go much faster with reducing CO2 emissions

Urgent something that you have already Use prevent language change and ever to see the scale there
could be shown to to change this quick maybe a complicated or difficult question but it's a you have to
really take care of that admission reductions and complaints now otherwise we will end up with two or
three needs to be global warming which is going to be and yet done I think one of the things that helps
in mind is instead of the change often the behavior people can we meet can we do that quickly increase
tricolor district three cover 3 cover that can be done quick it is very important on the longer run but it
can be done so it will take a long time before it will actually remove this can be real something I showed
in another lecture to another group there are the 500 richest companies in the world they would spend
2.1% of their income to create carbon credits that say to prevent points so on what's 0.1% of what they
earn all these 500 companies and they would put that money into Stop it's amazing how how how
simple it would be and how difficult it is to realize anyway let's go out you're a little bit behind schedule I
think so technology by captions you have to go through this more quickly maybe it's

If you can deal with this what more directly also there in the context of government you understand the
problem I'm sure we will take action to come to to recommendations by supporting this group of cities
for creating a lot of good recommendations and they are really meaningful so more transitional OK so
you first need the climate scenarios we need to find what's going on in the future industry and policy
travel growth economy and especially those caps things where which will define how much because with
this information can defeat finance models make these projections so there are 5 she socioeconomic
pathways which have confined in the final since the last MCU port and here you can see two access
scenarios with from those challenges to adapt to high challenge to adapt this scenario is made without
focus on I'm here it's the increasing challenge to mediate some say scenario which is easy to or which
effectively making the expansion and this scenario doesn't so you can see that this scenario here is
probably it was difficult to mitigate and the most difficult here you see us they're forcing that's the
number here which is changing next so can you social economic pathways the characterize the language
change the other use take a look at that some more detail if you are interested in it it seems quite
interesting what they assume in these scenarios anyway those scenarios are important this is of course a
very +1 and that's we will see that this one is required more or less this scenario for this scenario
manageable to focus on policies national corporation reduce inequality and those are fine they are much
more than possible things impact as well and second part that you would need to know is the global
warming level what is notion of global warming global temperature increase two degrees 1.5° have
always about that So what does that mean that you do actually is to look how fast and how high
temperatures going to increase globally and mean average temperature global average temperature is
going to increase but it say you fix the level first you want to look at when will be two degree global
warming at which time the future maybe book on our long and run all of them to calculate the average
time that it takes 100% scenarios interestingly it doesn't depend on the scenario so even the most
optimistic scenario of communistic scenario yes the one one blue lines they reached me so you can also
say how how this develops and what will happen some of them are reaching all they're still not reached
but this is not really just look at symbolic you have to make an average to get blue from the police
outside here as I mentioned we're better forecasting have to run the multi management types and then
make an average meaningful result talk about temperature air temperature sorry and then it's to have
this and this this terminology is important that we can talk more easily about that we changed in Paris
agreement and there's also fixed so we can look at what happens when you're at this level which
scenario which scenarios are possible and so on and so on um and then it comes to this cumulative CO2
then the warning level that is directly related to the total amount of CO2 already emitted in the
atmosphere that's the third element in the global accumulated emission scales linearly more or less with
the temperature etcetera so close all the more CO2 we add if we sum up all the emitters here we
emitted you can see that this scales which would lower temperature the global formula so this makes it
very understanding so for example you're here now if you continue emitting you have to sum it up sum it
up to certain level and then you stop because of this scenario and you can keep global warming if you
don't stop if you follow and go on with 18 in case we stop at 2050 at every scenario but we we do we
emit more more and more and we emit let's say this amount we are going into this scenario we will end
up with 2.5 Let's not get on the time which is but simplifies the understanding of the problem because
you can really relate the 02 image but it hides all the climate change drivers and the it has also affect on
the concentration of CO2 in oceans which makes the absorption capacity of organization capacity of
keeping oxygen in the ocean interesting thank you so we are looking now at two time periods after 19 It
is 15 or list PSP one scenario you see that this corresponds to the XSD one which which then says how
much CO2 this remaining to be emitted before we are going beyond 100 this is here 600 GPH Thomas
yeah sort of 600 gigatons of CO2 is left until we reach one of the factors that's so from this linear
relationship we can see that we have to stop emitting or we have to reduce emissions so that we keep
our total emission until whenever to 620 so we have more space who or to emit CO2 life for maximum of
600 stop no emission anymore afterwards but until then only 6 minutes you can come in that's until we
see that what's going on with the admission this is not the cumulative Commission but this is the
admission for review so this is what happened in the last 13 years continued increasing definition and we
have to see that we should stop it and we see some policies are saying yeah to do to reduce the emission
but it's part of you know much bigger and so the pledge and promise things to do to reduce your
Commission still not enough to come to this target line here which goes to this net zero in 2015 the
green line we will reach this net 0 emission so this is the slope of the line to follow to keep up with this
goal only when we reduce this speed we can reach 1.5 maximum temperature level increase and this
this area which is possible is that so this is called the the the emission gap which is reported by the time
it's actually tracker and many more websites So what what what mean what does that mean so we we
know that we have now an innovation of about 55 uh equivalent per year but you have to go down and
we have to sum up the whole emission and it may not go beyond 600 let's look what we have to do with
it what is the reduction of this how much do we have to reduce per year to reach his line this is a little bit
affirmations so to include decrease the emission and to keep the global warming level to 1.5° we have
only 600 from the left not more we are now at the level of admission 55 gigatons per year and we use it
in the first year by your eczema the at another amount that's not true but we reuse twice this so that
means every year when you use this reduce the same amount this is a linear relationship so we could
also answer 55 to the 1st so the same here it's 55 - X commands and other leaks because we reduce it
with the same amount and so on and so on and this keeps some here change this load into this one and
then we can and complete total of this sum and this is the gaussian rule of summation and then
reformulate this line again and calculate all the numbers and then we can resolve for X and we get 2.26
reduction per year that's interesting because if if you if you would actually reduce this number here by
2.26 every year you would see that you would actually follow what is the sentence however a little bit
more complex complicated calculation but very useful and this kind also been of row country or for your
own city but for your own whatever if you have a target clear meat until in its total target let's say our
country and who is contributing to it and then calculate table has to reduce how much reduced these are
the concrete information you need to give the then you have to keep track of their emission accurately
that you can look between policy everything you have imposed is actually followed and this is absolutely
not yet the case 2.26 number X if you if you you have reduced your rapidly by 55 - 56 the second year we
have reduced it to 55 - 4.7-7.2 and so on and so on so this piece of the image turn here is this linear this
calculation here you follow actually design screen yeah but this year each year same amount use this
600 30 times this minus this result breaks and then it's it's also something to remind there are so many
countries who have such a high issue where somebody needs to do something but they don't and there
are so many countries have low emission they suffer very much the same way and even more extreme
these countries that have to adapt much better than those who have not a high vision but have not been
through that it's a very inefficient inequality situation change typology regional differences and
responses to forcing the emission gap or from the emission gap and clearly see that the policies and
batches are hard behind the gas you need to realize in order to meet the Paris agreement goals what
would happen why do we want to fix 2 degrees? Phenomena that we are already experiencing now like
meeting in in the it's going to be released if not how can we get it back another one you already so
Transporting what would happen if there is water one water coming from the middle middle America
moves along the American Canadian coast and then comes to Europe this is a warm water balls moving
very far north and then going down this transport such an amount of heat that influence so strong
outline clear this is something that is the intensity so well it's very unclear how this will continue but
what would happen if that will change it will not be possible to bring it back in that way so first of all the
problem is that it will actually stop that's the first problem then that climate change here we would we
would have a much more colder climate but at the same time most probably also will come back come
back in the same way so this is the tipping point this point of where you cannot say exactly what
happens to the drops to one side or the other that's the problem yeah so we are fortunately far away
from that so just anybody take action sorry

Climate impact drivers:

Some so we are talking now about life increase the drivers that cause which I will go through quickly and
then go to the extreme weather extremes umm idea behind this drivers from the IPC is to show which
regions are affected how much and interesting about this is that regions are affected very we cannot say
that global warming is everywhere the same and the consequences for this um overview here shows
impact drivers show nearby geographic variation and this kind of more also in this interactive which I
show relation which is really interesting and then there's room in really different formation much smaller
scale so this is the worldwide overview so you have the number of regions here and the but there's
something either they can cause it air pollution you have two concentration surface yeah increase and it
will affect all the regions for all the regions they're finding this there are some effects kind of go down or
up and there are dark shaded and light shaded the light changed has a lower level of confidence and you
see that for example this radiation absorbance how much radiation sensor which could be very
interesting for TV for table time energy production so how much radiation will surface in the future more
or we can create more power videos to create less energy electricity so so so these kind of things is
shown and you can do you can look into that and get the data out of it from this interactive Atlas which
gives you much more about this word cheese word global warming levels angle cycles and other ways
and plus the data for this region here which is has a lot of data available so for example the global
warming level will be pointed to show presentations of progressive dictation as a function of global
warming area and so as you can imagine if air is heating up it will increase the capacity to absorb
humidity so it will increase precipitation now this is how much increasing the same for an area 1st so this
is the regional difference between very nicely extracted from this understand what is going on in your
area and then on top of that if you understand the extremes but you have to understand patients and
group into extremes together with this you can make a good impression of whether it's when
phenomenon is due to climate change however there is still something unique that's model output and
which we build and that's really covered in the next last part of this lecture so before we move on I want
to submit some up take away from that small part from the impact those are risk indicators for regions
and I invite you to go further and to look into this and also here again I want to stimulate your curiosity
and then do something that you are going to look into it further yourself this I asked you already have
that but now maybe some one or two minutes I would like to that you discuss it a little bit with you
because together with your colleague and the neighbor because I think there are much more interesting
weather phenomena go into exception to someone.

From and which I'm focusing only on the German and Belgium part because there wasn't even more
severe as you see here happening from that one you were so strong it was actually enormous amount
for that and there were 200 people dying and more than 20 people laugh and the whole infrastructure
was so much damage that the rain the rain measurements were destroyed so the measurement cuts
observations are at the time of the event and we don't have dictation anymore so this is an interesting
thing is you're talking about hazards that's what we are focusing today but we're telling you these things
here more into from the risk and the risk is you control down composed all out of the hazard have
volatility especially exposure and here we see clearly as if there would be no houses here it would have
to be no property but there still hazard hazard is the extreme rainfall keep in mind hazard is not this one
hazard is rainfall so today you're posting is in focusing on this extreme weather events right cause this is
baby we're not too far away from here if you are not familiar so lindbergh is this area here that was
mentioned before and this is in Germany and this area away from here and it has as you know I think
and the hazards so-called hazards have social societal interest because every time the hazard appears
that the media is always paying attention to it and also it's super important or for policy makers and also
insurance companies and so on and also of course from citizens to reduce the risk but that's the hazard
code the only component that's I repeat myself it's also the exposure and vulnerability this however
umm this week we need to also because of this is this occurrence of hazards the people get more aware
and also about rising risk you become change therefore we need scientifically grounded information if
there is a row better attribution initiative that has put a lot of effort to the community of researchers all
over the world puts together there to quantify these hazards and or try to find out if they have a
relationship that's go through this or make some not the correct explanation of this reason then the
question will remain unanswered and it will be answered somehow in something in another way so it's
super important that could you dictation is made by the experts and the experts are not claiming that
they are giving probabilities the likelihood of an event that is due to climate change with this information
then others policymakers and so on can continue that's what you should also be able to not every
exciting event is due to climate change and because of whatever and they can walk for patients and
going into this wrong direction and substantiated nations would be aware of that and guess whether will
weather attribution initiative gives a lot of information Which is very meaningful and that's what we are
going to do in the workshop so you need to formulate I know first of all what is answer of that so as I
said it's about likelihoods for the event has become certain amount of times more or less likely to change
and also with some intervals between 2 numbers So what is between this temperature and that
temperature with this like this countries level it will be more options this kind of things and also we are
talking about the probability ratio which is the probability of an event in a model current climate factual
divided by the probability of the same event in a situation without natural world without do you want to
buy zero is the probability duration that can only be done if you actually have access to those models
that can run the counterfactual world which is not possible to assess with observation so in the event
attribution procedure that should start with selecting an event which have those who have an impactor
of course more important and demo especially take the right indicators or indexes like parameters like
temperature presentations things like your weather patterns or those formalities that direction your
relationship to this nations for example can extract I'm and then also define where you are going to lose
not too big otherwise it will be smoothed out I'm not too small because then it will not capture the
extreme but it's also very difficult to to choose the right area send you should actually then continue to
at modeling results which you have no access to run the models and called capital gains probability ratio
and then do the combination between been from observations and evidence from the from the bottom
then you can actually clear the answer this question how likely it is that this event will be more or less
often or in our workshop but I would like to do some analysis of observations in the equation and So
what what do we have when we look at observations typically we observations as a probability
distribution function so we look the distribution of a certain temperature overtime let's say we have a
period of 100 years and then we look at all the maximum temperature per year and then we can
distribution function typically like red let me take a threshold OK you say well let's look how often or
what is the the likelihood of appearance of temperatures above 30° and we put here Greece and then
sum up this area below this part of the curve which is beyond or larger than 60° and this is the the ratio
of the events number of events that have occurred which which I've never hired umm if you would have
this model available you could do this curve the natural workforce and this will shift them to lower
temperatures because we have lower temperature lower power warning and then you have a smaller in
the in the .100 the circuit limit threshold so then you can calculate this probability ratio by dividing the
number the integral on the correct surface divided by the integral of the green surface and so we have
not this available so we will look more into umm but if you turn periods so when you look how often
does everything again return So what is the typical return period of that so for example you're looking at
a cancel this all caps global you have one point in the build I'm getting right time series highest to lowest
and get apply this formula turn. So the number of years divided by the rank of this so we're going to do
that in our workshop and then we get this number this this substitute like you have to exactly the same
data that we use here we have here of the temperature actual girl here and then he closed it says an
extreme event and see hey wait a minute this is actually not going to hit this of course we have only
some data available for example excellent from 1850 to 1950 for example on this curve and so we are
going to yeah how can we explain this experiment here when we have only this this data which is the
data from from from before and we cannot explain how the recurrence rate so you see the reoccurrence
date is actually the curve which shows the return. So once in 100 year there will be an event which has a
daily 26° so this is very high temperature on a daily level for every 10 year we've heard much lower so
base with the 25 every 10 years or every two years there will be temperatures of 22 1/2 so of course
below the temperature the more often and it was a indent which took which was 29 from 5° and we
cannot see how often the first because it was beyond you can expect of course you need to also fix this
shirt here and that's the generalized extreme event each that fitted fitted to the data and then you can
actually clear that it's so much so we because we have not this cannot explain what's going on we have
to shift this screw up and so now this crew is let's say the more current climate situation what did we do
here we shifted this curve you which is the observations we have we shifted by a certain amount into the
higher value of higher values because you know that's the global the global temperature increase seems
list so in in the factual in our current climate is curve has to be shifted upwards and then if we are
allowed to do this and we can do this the same do the same here in this group and then you see oh wait
a minute now you can see this current slide ohh this temperature actually have a return period of 2/3 so
it is more likely that such extreme events will happen in the current and this is what's what's what can be
done using only observations it's quite impressing and and yeah useful also and also if you have
mentioned it's available it's always good to use so that's what we are going to doing in our workshop
umm tomorrow we start doing some analysis and then calculating such a current uses and raps and
discussed outcome with Jen she will discuss with you the interpretation of such curves especially with
respect to the risk analysis which is behind exit from this then you are the plan change increase
likelihood extremes we are talking about a livelihood increase of the knowledge and consent extreme
event will have to optimize this adaption measures and so you don't understand what's behind this you
cannot do what you find that's why this analysis is that's a good number to support and of course the
risk analysis which includes longer with increase and explore.

Chat GPT perspective

Climate change and environmental sustainability are critical concerns. The production of oil, gas, and
fossil fuels, derived from organic matter, takes millions of years, with the process involving the
compression of organic matter. However, human consumption of these resources has accelerated
drastically, burning them up almost 100,000 times faster than the time it takes to produce them
naturally.

This accelerated consumption has led to the release of CO2 into the atmosphere, contributing to global
warming. The removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, which took millions of years, is now happening
within a span of 600 years. This rapid pace raises concerns about the Earth's ability to process and adapt
to such elevated CO2 levels.

In the context of environmental sustainability, the definition has evolved, emphasizing the need for
development that meets present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet
their own needs. When applied to climate change, sustainability involves a transition process that
reduces greenhouse gas emissions while considering social justice, preservation of natural resources,
and environmental well-being.

To address climate change, a systematic approach is necessary, considering indicators, drivers, risks, and
actions. Climate models and scenarios, including socioeconomic pathways, provide insights into potential
futures. The emission gap, representing the disparity between pledged emission reductions and the
necessary reductions to meet climate goals, highlights the urgency of action.

To limit global warming to specific levels, such as 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius, cumulative CO2 emissions
become crucial. The linear relationship between temperature increase and cumulative emissions sets a
finite limit on the remaining emissions. The concept of net-zero emissions by a certain date becomes a
key strategy to curb the impact of climate change.

Understanding the nonlinear nature of the climate system, the role of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and
ocean currents is essential. Tipping points, such as disruptions in ocean currents, could have profound
and unpredictable consequences.

In summary, addressing climate change requires urgent and substantial efforts to reduce emissions,
transition to sustainable practices, and adapt to the changing climate. The complex and interconnected
nature of the climate system demands a comprehensive and coordinated global response.

We are currently delving into the factors contributing to the rise in extreme weather events. I'll briefly
outline these drivers before delving into the concept behind them, as presented by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPC). The objective is to illustrate the varying degrees of
impact on different regions. What's intriguing is the significant variation in how regions are affected,
dispelling the notion that global warming has a uniform impact everywhere. The overview reveals the
impact of drivers and their proximity, displaying geographic nuances.

This interactive presentation explores the relationships between these drivers, offering insights into
various aspects. The data is presented on a global scale, encompassing numerous regions. Drivers such
as air pollution and surface concentration lead to widespread consequences. The effects exhibit
variations, with some regions experiencing increases while others see decreases. The shading on the
map indicates confidence levels, with darker shades suggesting higher confidence.

For instance, the measurement of radiation absorbance holds potential significance, particularly in the
context of energy production. Understanding how radiation levels on the surface may change in the
future is crucial for optimizing power generation methods. This interactive Atlas provides extensive
information on global warming levels, angle cycles, and more, with specific data available for regions
with abundant information.

Consider the regional differences in global warming levels, which can be instrumental in presenting
progressive trends. As air temperatures rise, the atmosphere's capacity to absorb humidity increases,
leading to enhanced precipitation. This regional perspective, combined with an understanding of
extremes, facilitates a comprehensive assessment of whether observed phenomena are linked to climate
change.

However, there's a unique aspect covered in the final part of this lecture, focusing on model output.
Before moving forward, let's summarize key takeaways related to risk indicators for regions. I encourage
you to delve deeper into this information and stimulate your curiosity. Take a moment to discuss these
concepts with your colleagues, as understanding these weather phenomena is essential.

Shifting our focus to specific events in Germany and Belgium, particularly severe incidents, like the one
mentioned, underscores the importance of hazard analysis. Hazards, such as extreme rainfall, draw
societal interest due to media coverage and relevance to policymakers, insurance companies, and
citizens alike. Hazard analysis involves not only the hazard itself but also factors like exposure and
vulnerability.

The occurrence of hazards increases public awareness of rising risks and the need for scientifically
grounded information. Initiatives like the attribution initiative strive to quantify hazards and establish
relationships, providing valuable information for policymakers. Weather attribution, when done by
experts, avoids unwarranted claims about every exciting event being due to climate change.

The workshop will delve into likelihoods, focusing on how many times an event becomes more or less
likely due to climate change. Probability ratios and intervals between temperature ranges will be
explored. The process involves selecting impactful events, defining indicators, and employing modeling
results. The goal is to answer the question of how likely an event is to occur more or less frequently.

Observations play a crucial role, with the analysis involving probability distribution functions for
temperatures over time. While the model for the counterfactual world is not available, the workshop will
explore using observations to understand recurrence rates and return periods. Shifting observed data to
align with current climate situations allows for a clearer assessment of the likelihood of extreme events.
This approach, using only observations, proves to be impressive and useful for risk analysis.

In the upcoming workshop, participants will engage in practical analyses, exploring current uses and
interpretations of observed data. Understanding the risks associated with climate change and optimizing
adaptation measures requires a thorough examination of these factors, forming the basis for informed
decision-making.

Bard perspective:
Climate Change and Its Global Impact

Climate change, undeniably shaped by human activities, poses a significant threat to

our planet. The burning of fossil fuels, a cornerstone of our modern world, releases
greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. These gases act like a
blanket, trapping heat and causing the planet's average temperature to rise. This
seemingly small temperature increase triggers a cascade of effects, disrupting natural
systems and impacting every corner of the globe.

One of the most noticeable consequences is the intensification of extreme weather

events. Heatwaves become more frequent and severe, while droughts grip regions that
were once fertile. Conversely, heavy rainfall and flooding events become more
common, leading to devastating landslides and mudslides. These weather extremes not
only cause widespread damage to infrastructure and property but also threaten food
security and displace communities.

Rising sea levels, another hallmark of climate change, endanger coastal regions. As
glaciers and ice sheets melt, the ocean swells, inundating low-lying areas and eroding
coastlines. This saltwater intrusion contaminates freshwater supplies and disrupts
delicate ecosystems, forcing people to abandon their homes and livelihoods.

The impact of climate change extends beyond physical landscapes. Changes in

temperature and precipitation patterns disrupt the delicate balance of ecosystems,
leading to species loss and habitat degradation. Coral reefs, crucial for marine
biodiversity, bleach and die as ocean temperatures rise. Forests, vital carbon sinks, are
ravaged by wildfires fueled by drought and heat. This loss of biodiversity not only
weakens the natural world but also disrupts the services it provides, impacting human
well-being in profound ways.

The urgency of this crisis cannot be overstated. The longer we delay meaningful action,
the more severe and irreversible the consequences become. Transitioning to clean
energy sources like solar and wind power is crucial to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
Individual actions, like reducing our reliance on fossil fuels through sustainable
transportation and conscious consumption, contribute significantly to this collective
effort. Additionally, supporting policies that promote renewable energy and carbon
emission reduction plays a vital role in driving systemic change.

Climate change is a daunting challenge, but it is not insurmountable. By acknowledging

its gravity, understanding its multifaceted impacts, and taking collective action, we can
build a more resilient and sustainable future for ourselves and generations to come.
Every step, from individual choices to large-scale policy changes, contributes to this
crucial endeavor. Let us choose to safeguard our planet and create a future where
humanity and nature thrive in harmony.

Unveiling the Drivers of Climate Change: Risks and Regional Variations

Understanding the complexities of climate change requires delving into the diverse
factors that propel its forward march. This presentation sheds light on these "climate
impact drivers," exploring their influence on various regions around the globe. Utilizing
an interactive tool developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), the presentation unveils a fascinating tapestry of regional vulnerability.

While global warming paints a seemingly uniform picture, the reality on the ground is far
more nuanced. Some regions bear the brunt of its scorching embrace, experiencing
more severe consequences than others. The presentation delves into these
geographical disparities, emphasizing how air pollution acts as a potent accelerant,
potentially increasing the absorption of solar radiation. This, in turn, can significantly
impact energy production strategies, highlighting the intricate web of interconnected
challenges posed by climate change.

Beyond the global picture, the presentation underscores the importance of

understanding extreme weather events. These often localized phenomena serve as
stark reminders of the tangible impacts of climate change. By combining this awareness
with a grasp of regional variations, we gain a more comprehensive understanding of the
true risk landscape presented by a warming planet.

The presentation concludes with a call to action, encouraging further exploration and
discussion. By delving deeper into these crucial topics, we can collectively stimulate
curiosity and ignite a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities that lie
ahead. Only through concerted effort can we navigate the complexities of climate
change and build a more resilient future for all.

Delving into the German Flood: Unraveling Risks and Climate Attribution

This section focuses on a specific extreme weather event – the devastating floods in
Germany and Belgium. While acknowledging the severity of the disaster, the speaker
emphasizes the importance of shifting the perspective from solely hazards to risks.
Risks, they argue, encompass not only the hazard itself (extreme rainfall in this case)
but also vulnerability and exposure. The presentation highlights the societal impact of
such events, drawing attention to media attention, policy considerations, and insurance
concerns.

Beyond immediate impact, the speaker emphasizes the need for scientifically grounded
information to understand the role of climate change in extreme weather events. The
World Weather Attribution initiative is presented as a crucial tool for researchers to
quantify these hazards and assess their potential link to climate change.

However, attributing specific events to climate change remains a complex challenge.

The speaker delves into the limitations of using solely observational data and
emphasizes the need for access to models that can simulate counterfactual scenarios
without human influence.
Despite these challenges, the workshop aims to utilize observations to estimate the
likelihood of such events occurring in the current climate compared to a hypothetical
pre-industrial era. By analyzing probability distribution functions and return periods, the
workshop participants will attempt to assess the potential increase in frequency or
intensity of these extreme events due to climate change.

The speaker concludes by reiterating the importance of collaboration and utilizing all
available evidence, both observational and modeled, to gain a deeper understanding of
climate change's impact on extreme weather events. This knowledge, they argue, is
crucial for informing adaptation strategies and mitigating future risks.